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on Microeconomic European Issues |
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Issue of 2017‒04‒09
24 papers chosen by Giuseppe Marotta Università degli Studi di Modena e Reggio Emilia |
| By: | Tyrefors Hinnerich, Björn (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Palme, Mårten (Department of Economics); Priks, Mikael (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | According to Swedish penal code, there is a “rebate” on all prison sentences before the 21st birthday. We exploit this age discontinuity to investigate how individuals respond to harsher punishments. We use a large Swedish dataset, including dates for all crimes which led to convictions for cohorts born during the period 1973–1993. We find evidence of “bunching” in the sense that more crimes were committed during the week prior to a 21st birthday, followed by a reduction in crime during the week after this birthday. We do not, however, find that harsher punishment reduces the crime rate permanently. |
| Keywords: | General deterrence; Prison; Sorting; Age thresholds |
| JEL: | D90 K40 |
| Date: | 2017–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1163&r=eur |
| By: | Danilo Liberati (Bank of Italy); Michele Loberto (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Housing taxation is an important policy instrument that shapes households’ choices about homeownership and renting as well as the evolution of the housing market. We study the effects of housing taxation in a model with search and matching frictions in the property market and a competitive rental market. We show a new transmission channel for a housing tax reform that works through a ‘shifting’ effect from landlords to tenants. We calibrate the model in order to estimate the long-run effects of the recent Italian housing market taxation reforms and the extent of property tax capitalization on house prices. We show that property taxation on owner-occupied dwellings has a negative effect on property and rental prices, whereas taxes on second homes have opposite qualitative effects. The simultaneous increase in both these instruments may mitigate the dynamics of prices and rents as well as the change in the ratio between the share of owners and renters, leading to a partial capitalization taxation on prices. |
| Keywords: | housing market, matching, property taxation |
| JEL: | R21 R31 E62 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1105_17&r=eur |
| By: | Aiello, Francesco; Albanese, Giuseppe; Piselli, Paolo |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of R&D public support on the innovation activities of a sample of Italian SMEs. Unlike most of the literature, the analysis focuses more deeply on the innovation output than on the innovation input. The innovation output is measured through patent data. By using a new data set obtained by combining information from EPO records and the Capitalia data set on Italian corporations, we find that publicly supported firms have similar patenting activity to other R&D performers, regardless of the type of policy tool used to foster innovation. However, as far as patenting is concerned, supported SMEs face higher R&D spending than others. |
| Keywords: | Patents; R&D policy support; SMEs |
| JEL: | C21 L1 O31 O38 |
| Date: | 2017–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77955&r=eur |
| By: | Kang, Yoo-Duk (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy); Lim, You-Jin (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | A new trend of labor mobility has been emerging amid the varying economic conditions among EU members. Since the global financial crisis there have been diverging trends in labor market conditions in Europe. The unemployment rate in Southern Europe still remains at its record high, while Northern Europe maintains a relatively stable employment figure. Such diverging labor market conditions have been reflected on the labor movement within the EU. Countries such as Germany and the UK attract more immigrants to their job markets, while southern countries become 'net exporters' of their labor to other parts of Europe. A number of studies conclude that labor mobility within the EU is determined by income differences between the migrant departing and hosting countries. The distinctive business cycles between countries (i.e. unemployment gaps) are insufficient for explaining the intra-European labor movement. These empirical facts were well spotlighted under the arguments of an optimal currency area (OCA); the lack of labor mobility within the Euro area suggests that it is far from being qualified as an OCA. It was hardly expected that labor mobility would work as an 'absorber' in the face of asymmetric shocks. However, recent observations show that internal migration within the EU has been increasingly affected by the difference in unemployment rates between countries. |
| Keywords: | Labor Mobility; EU; Migration; British; German |
| Date: | 2016–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2016_008&r=eur |
| By: | Edwin Leuven; Sturla A. Løkken (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | How does class size in compulsory school affect peoples’ long run education and earnings? We use maximum class size rules and Norwegian administrative registries allowing us to observe outcomes up to age 48. We do not find any indication of beneficial effects of class size reduction in compulsory school. For a 1 person reduction in class size we can rule out effects on income as small as 0.087 percent in primary school and 0.12 percent in middle school. Population differences in parental background, school size or competitive pressure do not appear to reconcile our findings with previous studies. |
| Keywords: | Class size; Schooling; Earnings; Regression Discontinuity |
| JEL: | I21 I28 J24 C30 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:858&r=eur |
| By: | Marek Radvansky; Miroslav Stefanik |
| Abstract: | In this paper we build on an already developed labour market model (VZAM) (Tiruneh, 2012), (Lubyova, Stefanik et al., 2015), designed to project skill shortages on Slovak labour market. Within the model several relatively autonomous modules work on the supply and demand side. Existing approaches in modelling labour market development in terms of skills, differentiate between expansion demand and replacement demand for labour (CEDEFOP, Skills supply and demand in Europe, 2009, 2010 and 2011). Replacement demand captures the demand arising from transitions and implied job openings. Transitions considered are those between segments (sector/occupation) as well as into unemployment and various forms of inactivity (retirement, schooling, maternity leave and other). Replacement demand usually presents a major part of the demand created in each labour market (Kriechel and Sauermann, 2010), (Kriechel, 2013). Similar approach has been also applied in Slovakia (Radvansky, Miklosovic and Hvozdikova, 2016). The objective of the submitted paper is to explore the possibilities of switching the module on replacement demand from a semi aggregate probability model into microsimulation framework. For this purpose open-source microsimulation software LIAM 2 will be employed (http://liam2.plan.be/). Switching into a micro-simulation form could be related to several advantages in comparison to a simple probability model. It would, for example, allow us to consider individuals´ history in the probability functions on transitions and thus improving the quality of predictions. The functionality of LIAM 2 also allows us to consider more and multiple stage processes, relevant from the perspective of individual decision. The objective of the paper is to explore and consider the advantages related to switching an already existing replacement module (based on age specific simple probability functions) into a microsimulation framework. Outputs will be compared to previously obtained methods and their reliability will be discussed. The demand side of the VZAM model follows this distinction between expansion and replacement demand. Expansion demand is modelled using a dynamic CGE model (Miklosovic and Radvansky, 2015). This is complemented with a methodologically different module on replacement demand. In this module, age specific probability functions are used in order to predict transitions into retirement and outside the labour force. The objective of this paper is to switch the module on replacement demand into a micro simulation framework, in order to predict transitions between segments of the labour market (sectors/occupations), into unemployment and out of the labour force. Aggregate outputs from this module are consequently produced and imported into other modules of the VZAM model. The supply side of VZAM predicts detailed structure of the educational structure of the Slovak population combining LFS, Census and administrative data on schooling participants. The replacement module also imports aggregate information, such as the one about relative wage in segments, as well as the educational structure from other modules of the model. Within the replacement module, individual data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) are processed and complemented with more precise information from national administrative data. In the paper we will focus purely on the outputs from the replacement module, but we will keep existing functional interlinkages with other parts of the model. The results obtained by the new (micro simulation) version of the replacement module will be extracted in a form comparable to the previous applications. Basic indicators of flows and transitions into retirement, other forms of inactivity, unemployment as well as into other segments of the labour market will be extracted. These will be produced by sector of economic activity, age group and educational level. Predictions from the new version of the module will be confronted with results from the previous version and especially the fit with real LFS microdata will be considered (with respect to LFS sample related shortcomings). The most recent (2015) round of LFS will be considered in order to assess the nowcasting potential of the designed approach. |
| Keywords: | Slovakia, applicable to all countries in CEE region, Microsimulation models, Labor market issues |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:009007:9541&r=eur |
| By: | Hübler, Philipp |
| Abstract: | Intergenerational correlations of time preference are well documented. However, there is still limited empirical evidence about the role of genetics in this transmission process. In our paper, we use data on roughly 3,000 twins from the German TwinLife project to estimate the heritability of time preference. We rely on an experimentally validated survey measure of temporal discounting, namely, self-assessed patience. The analysis of monozygotic and dizygotic twins enables us to apply standard biometric models. We find that genetic differences explain up to 23 percent of individual variation in patience. Whereas the additive genetic effect and common environmental effects are of minor importance, a major dominant genetic effect is present. These results indicate a notable degree of genetic infuence on economic time preferences. |
| Keywords: | Twin study; genetics; heritability; patience; time preference |
| JEL: | D10 D90 J10 Z10 |
| Date: | 2017–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77620&r=eur |
| By: | Frank Neffke (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Anne Otto; Cesar A. Hidalgo |
| Abstract: | Establishment closures leave many workers unemployed. Based on employment histories of 20 million German workers, we find that workers often cope with their displacement by moving to different regions and industries. However, which of these coping strategies is chosen depends on the local industry mix. A large local presence of predisplacement or related industries strongly reduces the rate at which workers leave the region. Moreover, our findings suggest that a large local presence of the predisplacement industry induces workers to shift search efforts toward this industry, reducing the spatial scope of search for jobs in alternative industries and vice versa. |
| Keywords: | Germany, Economic Growth, Immigration, Labor Economics |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cid:wpfacu:71&r=eur |
| By: | Reif, Simon; Wichert, Sebastian; Wuppermann, Amelie |
| Abstract: | Birth weight manipulation is common in per-case hospital reimbursement systems, in which hospitals receive more money for otherwise equal newborns with birth weight just below compared to just above specific birth weight thresholds. As hospitals receive more money for cases with weight below the thresholds, having a (reported) weight below a threshold could benefit the newborn. Also, these reimbursement thresholds overlap with diagnostic thresholds that have been shown to affect the quantity and quality of care that newborns receive. Based on the universe of hospital births in Germany from the years 2005-2011, we investigate whether weight below reimbursement relevant thresholds triggers different quantity and quality of care. We find that this is not the case, suggesting that hospitals' financial incentives with respect to birth weight do not directly impact the care that newborns receive. |
| Keywords: | neonatal care,DRG upcoding,quantity & quality of care |
| JEL: | I11 I18 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwqwdp:072017&r=eur |
| By: | Mike Smet |
| Abstract: | Mainstream secondary education in Flanders (i.e. the Dutch speaking part of Belgium) is divided into four major education forms : general education, technical education, vocational education and arts education. The focus of this paper is on pupils graduation from technical and vocational education. Although technical education is more oriented towards higher education and vocational education is more labor market oriented, both degrees allow access to higher education and should also prepare students to start working. Despite the distinction between technical and vocational education, a number of similar study fields coexist both in the technical and the vocational form. A first aim of this paper is to investigate whether students from similar study fields in technical and vocational education do have different transition probabilities from secondary to higher education. In addition we will quantify the impact of individual, school and local (labor market) characteristics on the probability of continuing their educational career after having obtained a degree in secondary education. International literature has been examining the impact of determinants of the transition from secondary to higher education. Four main categories of determinants have been distinguished. First, individual characteristics e.g. gender, age, ability and nationality are found to significantly influence the choice of field of study (Ayalon and Yogev, 2005, Benito and Alegre, 2012). Second, the transition choice is found to be highly influenced by family background characteristics such as type of family, number of siblings, education of the parents and family income (Van de Werfhorst et al., 2001, Van de Werfhorst et al., 2003, Ayalon and Yogev, 2005, Nguyen and Taylor, 2003). Third, Nguyen and Taylor (2003) and Benito and Alegre (2012) found the impact of certain secondary school characteristics (e.g. percentage of students from families with a low educational level and school type) to have a significant impact on the transition choices after secondary education. Finally, regional characteristics such as geographic location have been found to play a part in educational achievement and the transition from secondary to tertiary education. For example, higher unemployment levels in the region you live can make you choose for programmes that lead to higher job security (Ayalon and Yogev, 2005, Nguyen and Taylor, 2003, Kauppinen, 2008). Methodologically, the most frequently used techniques to investigate the impact of student, family and school characteristics on transition probabilities are the estimation of (multinomial) probit or logit models (Breen and Jonsson 2000; Lucas 2001; Ayalon and Yogev 2005; Benito and Alegre 2012). Since pupils are nested in schools, the multilevel structure of the data should be accounted for. Therefore a multilevel logistic regression will be used in the empirical part of this paper. The results of various multilevel logistic regressions clearly indicate differences in transition probabilities between students graduating from vocational secondary education versus students graduating from technical secondary education. In addition, a number of individual characteristics (e.g. grade retention an problematic non-attendances) also have a significant impact on transition probabilities. Evidence of the impact of school characteristics and regional characteristics (e.g. local unemployment rate or an index of urbanization) is mixed. |
| Keywords: | Belgium, Labor market issues, Labor market issues |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:009007:9256&r=eur |
| By: | Cellini, Roberto; Cuccia, Tiziana |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to evaluate whether and how the free admittance to museums and monuments affects the charged visits. We take the Italian state museums and monuments as the case study, and we consider monthly data, aggregate at the national level, from January 1996 to December 2015. Within a multivariate analysis approach, which takes into account the seasonal structure of time series, we document a positive influence of the number of free visitors upon the subsequent number of paying visitors. We also analyse the effect of the change in free admission policy, which has recently occurred in Italy: since July 2014 free admission is no longer reserved to specific segments of population, but it has been extended to all visitors on the first Sunday of each month. We show that this new rule has entailed an increase in both free and charged visits. Our present results can be relevant in the current political debate in Italy, in front of new rules concerning free admission to museums. More in general, we provide pieces of evidence that can be informative in the ever-green debate about free attendance to museum and its relations with individual choices and public policies concerning cultural consumption. |
| Keywords: | Museums, Free attendance, Cultural consumption, Seasonal time series. |
| JEL: | C22 Z11 |
| Date: | 2017–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:78067&r=eur |
| By: | Pereira, Alfredo; Pereira, Rui |
| Abstract: | Using a newly-developed data set, we analyze the effects of infrastructure investment on economic performance in Portugal. A vector-autoregressive approach estimates the elasticity and marginal products of twelve types of infrastructure investment on private investment, employment and output. We find that the largest long-term accumulated effects come from investments in railroads, ports, airports, health, education, and telecommunications. For these infrastructures, the output multipliers suggest that these investments pay for themselves through additional tax revenues. For investments in ports, airports and education infrastructures, the bulk of the effects are short-term demand-side effects, while for railroads, health, and telecommunications, the impact is mostly of a long term and supply side nature. Finally, investments in health and airports exhibit decreasing marginal returns, with railroads, ports, and telecommunications being relatively stable. In terms of the other infrastructure assets, the economic effects of investments in municipal roads, electricity and gas, and refineries are insignificant, while investments in national roads, highways, and waste and waste water have positive economic effects, but too small to improve the public budget. Clearly, from a policy perspective, not all infrastructure investments in Portugal are created equal. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure Investment, Multipliers, Budgetary Effects, VAR, Portugal. |
| JEL: | C32 E22 E62 H54 H60 O47 |
| Date: | 2017–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77369&r=eur |
| By: | Piotr Lewandowski; Roma Keister; Wojciech Hardy; Szymon Gorka |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the age dimension of changes in the task composition of jobs in 12 European countries between 1998 and 2014. We use the approach proposed by Autor et al. (2003) and Acemoglu & Autor (2011), and combine O*NET occupation content data with EU-LFS individual data to construct five task content measures: non-routine cognitive analytical, non-routine cognitive interpersonal, routine cognitive, routine manual, and non-routine manual physical. We find that the shift away from routine work and toward non-routine work occurred much faster among workers born between 1970 and 1989 than among workers born between 1950 and 1969. We find that in the majority of countries, the ageing of the workforce occurred more quickly in occupations that were initially more routine-intensive, as the share of young workers in these occupations was declining. We estimate logit models that show that individuals in these occupations were increasingly likely to be unemployed, especially if they were between the ages of 15 and 34. |
| Keywords: | task content of jobs, routinisation, ageing, occupational change, O*NET |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp012017&r=eur |
| By: | Koschatzky, Knut |
| Abstract: | Many case studies about public-private research partnerships (PPP) between academia and industry provide useful insights into the establishment and operation of these collaborative ties. Nevertheless, many of these studies follow their own perspective of analysis. According to Bozeman (2013: 312) "the scholarship on this topic remains relatively a theoretical or, more precisely, that it is "pre-theoretical" in the sense that much knowledge is accumulated but it has not been integrated into a matrix of empirical explanations". Taking the funding initiative of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) "Research Campus - public-private partnership for innovation" (Forschungscampus - öffentlich-private Partnerschaft für Innovationen) as an example of a public-private partnership in research and innovation, it is the objective of this paper to develop a theoretical framework for the empirical analysis of this kind of PPP, and to apply this framework to the specific case of the German "Research Campus" initiative. |
| Keywords: | public-private partnership,research and innovation,theory-based framework,research campus,Germany |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisifr:r22017&r=eur |
| By: | Ioana A. Duca (European Central Bank); José M. Montero (Banco de España); Marianna Riggi (Bank of Italy); Roberta Zizza (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We consider a standard result of customer market theory: if firms have stable customer relations and face financial frictions, they may keep prices relatively high in times of low demand and vice versa. Indeed, during recessions, when firms have low cash flow and greater difficulty in raising external funds, they may set higher prices on their locked-in shoppers to maintain short-term profits at the expense of future market shares. We extend this theoretical framework so that the countercyclical behaviour of price margins is strengthened by the expected persistence of the downturn and the procyclicality of competitive pressures. We test these predictions for Italian firms participating in the 2014 Wage Dynamics Network Survey. All things being equal, financially constrained firms charge higher markups when faced with low demand; this behaviour is more evident when demand is perceived as being persistent. Our findings suggest that the severity of financial constraints in Italy was one of the causes of the sustained growth of prices in 2010-2013, notwithstanding the considerable slack in the economy. |
| Keywords: | markups, financial frictions, customer market |
| JEL: | C25 C26 D22 L11 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1106_17&r=eur |
| By: | Avendano, M.; de Coulon, A.; Nafilyan, V.; |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we test whether education has a causal effect on mental health by exploiting a compulsory schooling reform in 1972, which raised the minimum school leaving age from 15 to 16 years old in Great Britain. Using a regression discontinuity design, we provide robust evidence that although the reform increased educational attainment, it also increased the prevalence of depression and other mental health conditions in adulthood. Our results do not imply that more schooling per se leads to poorer mental health, but rather suggest that forcing low achieving teenagers to remain in an academic environment may have long-term unintended consequences on their mental health. |
| Keywords: | Mental health; education; compulsory schooling; UK; |
| JEL: | I12 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:17/10&r=eur |
| By: | Carole Bonnet; Bruno Jeandidier; Anne Solaz |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence showed that married men generally earn more and married women earn less. However, the control group of “not married” differs between studies, over time and between countries, so that the message remains somewhat fuzzy. It is not clear whether the type of union or being in union is responsible for these wage penalties and premium. This article aims to analyse whether the marriage pay more than cohabitation in a country where both unmarried and married partnerships coexist for years, such as France. Thanks to a rich dataset with information on both marital and work history of both partners, we are able to estimate the effect on hourly wage of being married relatively to being in a consensual union. Taking into account selection into marriage and on the labour market and possible differential in specialization level, our results show that the men’s marriage premium is entirely due to positive selection into marriage. While marital specialization process within couple strongly decrease women’s hourly wage, there is no evidence of an additional marriage penalty for women. The gender wage gap between married partners or unmarried partners is similar, once controlled for selection into marriage. |
| Keywords: | Marriage, Cohabitation, Specialization, Marriage Premium, Earnings. |
| JEL: | J31 J12 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2017-08&r=eur |
| By: | Nicola Brimblecombe; Linda Pickard; Derek King; Martin Knapp |
| Abstract: | Reconciliation of unpaid care and employment is an increasingly important societal, economic and policy issue, both in the UK and internationally. Previous research shows the effectiveness of formal social care services in enabling carers to remain in employment. Using quantitative and qualitative data collected from carers and the person they care for in 2013 and 2015, during a period of cuts to adult social care in England, we explore barriers experienced to receipt of social care services. The main barriers to receipt of services identified in our study were availability, characteristics of services such as quality, and attitudes of carer and care-recipient to receiving services. These barriers have particular implications for carers' ability to reconcile care and employment. |
| Keywords: | Social care services; unpaid care; working carers; unmet need; barriers |
| JEL: | E6 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:70802&r=eur |
| By: | Xieshu WANG (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN)); Joel RUET (Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord (CEPN)); Xavier Richer (University Sorbonne Nouvelle) |
| Abstract: | The context of EU-China relations has dramatically changed over the past five years. China’s interest in Europe has expanded geographically and substantially. At the broader diplomatic and strategic level, the OBOR initiative has come to symbolize China’s growing significance in international affairs, reshaping regional dynamics. The European Commission and the Chinese government have agreed to enhance synergies in connectivity platforms. However, new investment trends and trade relations with China are highly differentiated across Europe and across sectors. The lack of a clearly defined OBOR plan in most European countries is weakening their bargaining power. In the meantime, China is following its flexible foreign policy approach when dealing with the EU. So far, the OBOR projects in Europe are mainly focusing on transport and infrastructure in Central, Eastern and Southern Europe. We are witnessing the reconfiguration of international institutions and the emergence of a more multi-polar global order. |
| Keywords: | One Belt One Road, connectivity, infrastructure, investment, governance |
| JEL: | F02 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upn:wpaper:2017-04&r=eur |
| By: | Marta De Philippis (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on students at the very top of the ability distribution and explores whether strengthening high school science curricula affects their choice of enrolling in and completing a Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) degree at university. The paper solves the standard endogeneity problems by exploiting the different timing in the implementation of a reform that encouraged secondary schools in the UK to offer more science to high ability 14- year-olds. Taking five more hours per week of science in secondary school increases the probability of enrolling in a STEM degree by 1.2 percentage points and the probability of graduating in these degrees by 3 percentage points. The results mask substantial gender heterogeneity: while girls are as willing as boys to take advanced science in secondary school - when offered -, the results on pure STEM degrees at university are entirely driven by boys. Girls are encouraged to choose more challenging subjects, but still opt for the most female-dominated ones. |
| Keywords: | STEM, high school curriculum, field of study, gender bias |
| JEL: | I23 J24 H52 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1107_17&r=eur |
| By: | Britta Stoever |
| Abstract: | The health-care sector in Germany is highly regulated. It provides ambulant and in-patient services. On the ambulant side, the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (NASHIP) and the regional Associations of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians (ASHIPs) control the labour market for physicians: they determine the number, type and locations of medical practices in Germany relying on a demand-oriented planning method called “Bedarfsplanung”. A model that equally considers supply and demand side of the medical market can improve this planning process. Only with the concurrent modelling of both market sides a supply tailored to suit the market need of medical services can be achieved. Demand depends on the size and the age structure of the population. With increasing age the probability and the number of diseases increase. Moreover, older people show different kind of diseases than younger people. The number and specialisation of physicians should hence be adapted to demographic change. This is a long-term process, because medical doctors pass a long training, starting with academic studies and ending with medical specialisation. The latter is a necessary precondition for working in the ambulant sector. Within the research project QuMed a comprehensive model was constructed that considers the supply of and the demand for physicians in great detail. It encompasses the whole medical market, i.e. the ambulant and in-patient side. The data basis consists of official data from the Federal Statistical Office and the German Medical Association as well as special data with restricted access from the ASHIPs and the federal registry of physicians. The supply side is modelled using a stock-flow-approach including the complete professional life of a physician. The stock is given by the existing number of physicians registered in the data bank of the federal registry of physicians and the German Medical Association. The inflow of medical specialists is estimated considering the number and age structure of students and the composition of the complete group of physicians (ambulant, in-patient and others). The outflow depends on the age structure of the physicians. Changes between both sectors, ambulant and in-patient, are allowed for (given the specialisation condition) and they are used to equalise possible shortages in the ambulant sector. The demand side depends on demographic change and differentiates between age, sex and indications (choice of medical specialist) of patients. Combining demographic information with billing data collected by the ASHIPs (number of patients and cases treated by 24 different specialists) for the ambulant sector as well as health statistics (Federal Statistical Office) for the in-patient sector the future demand for medical services can be projected. Thus, medical specialties that profit from ageing (e.g. urology) or are faced with a diminishing need (e.g. paediatricians) can be identified. Comparing demand and supply helps to determine shortages or sectors with a sufficient number of specialists so that the planning process can be adapted and improved. Moreover, competing relations between ambulant and in-patient sectors for specialists can be detected. First results show, that ageing has a clear impact on the future needed specialisation of physicians. The applied method provides the opportunity to enhance the planning of the medical market, to identify undesirable trends and to calculate simulations for impact analysis. |
| Keywords: | Germany, Labor market issues, Forecasting and projection methods |
| Date: | 2016–07–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:009007:9214&r=eur |
| By: | Giorgia Giovannetti (Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa); Enrico Marvasi |
| Abstract: | The recent trade literature has shown how incomplete contracts can shape firms’ boundary and the decision of whether to outsource or integrate vertically. Related evidence and conceptualizations from the business literature show that buyer-supplier relations in global value chains can take several governance structures, depending on the degree of vertical coordination and power relations between firms. Building upon these two non-competing strands of the literature, we construct a taxonomy of firms that considers their positioning (upstream or downstream), their belonging to domestic or global value chains and the type of relations they entertain with other firms. We apply our taxonomy to the 2011 census of firms operating in Tuscany. We first describe regional characteristics and then study how positioning and governance affect firms’ decisions and performance. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains; Buyer-supplier relations; Heterogeneous firms; International trade. |
| JEL: | F14 F23 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2016_14.rdf&r=eur |
| By: | Haliassos, Michael (Goethe University Frankfurt); Jansson, Thomas (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden); Karabulut, Yigitcan (Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses unique administrative data and a quasi-field experiment of exogenous refugee allocation in Sweden to estimate effects of exposure to financially literate neighbors. It contributes evidence of causal impact of financial literacy and points to a social multiplier of financial education. Exposure promotes saving for retirement in the medium run and stockholding in the longer run, especially when neighbors have economics or business education, but only for educated or male-headed households. Findings point to knowledge transfer rather than mere imitation. We do not find significant effects on income or employment prospects, except for employment in the financial sector. |
| Keywords: | Household finance; financial literacy; social interactions; refugees |
| JEL: | D14 E21 F22 G11 I28 |
| Date: | 2017–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0333&r=eur |
| By: | Franziska Bremus; Katja Neugebauer |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how the withdrawal of banks from their cross-border business impacted the borrowing costs of European firms since the crisis. We combine aggregate information on total and cross-border credit with firm-level survey data for the period 2010 - 2014. We find that the decline in cross-border lending led to a deterioration in the borrowing conditions of small firms. In countries with more pronounced reductions in cross-border credit inflows, the likelihood of a rise in firms’ external financing costs has increased. This result is mainly driven by the interbank channel, which plays a crucial role in transmitting shocks to the real sector across borders. |
| Keywords: | International banking; firm finance; credit constraints. |
| JEL: | F34 F36 G15 G21 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:70774&r=eur |