nep-ets New Economics Papers
on Econometric Time Series
Issue of 2007‒05‒04
one paper chosen by
Yong Yin
SUNY at Buffalo

  1. Capturing asymmetry in real exchange rate with quantile autoregression By Mauro S. Ferreira

  1. By: Mauro S. Ferreira (Cedeplar-UFMG)
    Abstract: Quantile autoregression is used to explore asymmetries in the adjustment process of pair wise real exchange rate between the Italian lire, French franc, Deutsch mark, and the British pound. Based on the best specification for each quantile we construct predicted conditional density functions which guided us to identify two sources of asymmetry: 1) dispersion depends on the conditioned value of the real exchange rate, i.e., “conditional” heterokedasticity; 2) the probability of increases and falls also changes according to the conditioned value, i.e., there is higher probability for the real exchange rate to appreciate (depreciate) given the currency is depreciated (appreciated).We only verified strong heterokedasticity in relations among the lire, franc, and mark, which was resolved by estimating quadratic autoregressive model for some quantiles. Relations involving the pound presented stable but higher dispersion indicating larger probability of wider oscillation.
    Keywords: exchange rate; quantile autoregression; unit root; asymmetry
    JEL: C14 C22 F31
    Date: 2007–04

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