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on Environmental Economics |
| By: | Charis Anais Kanellos; Philippe Delacote; Antonello Lobianco; David. W Shanafelt |
| Abstract: | Recent bioenergy policies have led to an increase in wood demand, the use of which is linked to sustainability and climate change objectives. However, balancing climate mitigation and wood harvest involves land use competition among sectors (e.g. agriculture vs forestry) and within sectors (e.g. resource exploitation and conservation). By developing a theoretical model of natural resources management and conducting numerical simulations, we show how initial land allocation impacts forest expansion and intensification choices in two regions. In particular, we analyze optimal land allocation (between primary, secondary forest and agriculture) and timber harvest intensity under scenarios of increased wood demand, harvest restriction in primary forest and tree mortality, including quantifying the marginal rates of substitution between harvest intensity and forest expansion and between primary and secondary forest. The initial land allocation does not significantly affects forest management decisions. As wood demand increases, the profitability of wood production rises, resulting in a combination of deforestation and higher harvested volumes. In our model, secondary and primary forests behave as substitutes: secondary forests can be harvested in lieu of primary forest to meet timber demand. These findings underscore the need for sustainable harvesting practices and policies, especially as forest resources face growing pressure from climate change, rising timber demand, and regulatory constraints. |
| Keywords: | forestry, land allocation, agriculture, sustainable resource management |
| JEL: | Q23 Q3 Q5 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-13 |
| By: | Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Primov, Abdulla; Khamidov, Imomjon |
| Abstract: | The study provides some fresh insights into the Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) framework in Bukhara and Karakalpakstan in Uzbekistan. The findings confirm that loss in production, soil erosion, deforestation, decreasing arable land, salinization, and water management are the most prevailing challenges in the region. Our resilience analysis confirms that access to basic services, assets, adaptive capacity, and social safety nets enhances household resilience. Socio-economic results of LDN show the importance of an institutional approach, a capacity approach, a gender-sensitive approach, food and water integration, financial support and incentives, and other synergies. For LDN, special attention is needed to restore biodiversity and productivity, which may yield significant economic benefits for agriculture and horticulture. A priority should be given to a sustainable development approach that will focus on socio-economic development, environmental protection, and inclusivity in the regions. There is a noticeable intervention showing the disintegration of the ecosystem in supporting income-generating activities in the region. This situation requires a sustainable development intervention enhancing the implementation of LDN. |
| Keywords: | Degradation, Climate change, Land, Resilience |
| JEL: | A1 Q10 R20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:339913 |
| By: | Michele Azzone; Carlo Bechi; Gabriele Sbaiz |
| Abstract: | Driven by the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters and chronic climate threats, we investigate the impact of physical climate risk on global equity portfolios. By employing a panel regression analysis on sectoral returns, we provide statistical evidence that extreme temperature events exert a negative effect on most sectors. We introduce two novel metrics based on these temperature anomalies, Climate Risk Exposure and Climate Exposure Volatility, in order to measure the environmental vulnerability of a portfolio. Unlike available static country-level indices, these metrics incorporate the time varying probability of extreme events and their relations with firm-specific asset intensity. We integrate these measures into a multi-objective portfolio optimization framework. This approach extends the traditional Mean-Variance paradigm, allowing investors to construct portfolios that are resilient to physical climate shocks without sacrificing diversification. Finally, we conduct a backtesting analysis to show the practical benefits of incorporating these climate risk metrics into the investment process, evaluating how climate-aware strategies perform relative to traditional benchmarks. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.11143 |
| By: | Parisa Pakrooh (University of Milano-Bicocca); Matteo Manera (University of Milano-Bicocca and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | Despite the strong commitment of European countries to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the extent to which key policies and drivers jointly shape emissions dynamics remains insufficiently investigated. To fill this gap, the study investigates the combined effects of the circular economy, energy transition, emissions trading systems, carbon tax, and digitalization on carbon reduction in the EU member states. Using annual data from 2000 to 2023, the analysis integrates causal discovery, time-varying dependence modeling, and machine learning methods to unravel system-level causal structure, dynamic connectedness, and future emission trajectories. The Directed Acyclic Graph method, especially the Fast Adjacency Skewness algorithm, identifies both contemporaneous and lagged causal relationships, in which resource productivity acts as a transmission channel within the system. Lagged disequilibrium shocks propagate from upstream circular economy factor (material footprint) and digitalization to midstream efficiency (resource productivity), and ultimately are transmitted to emissions. Time-varying copula models confirm significant heterogeneity and evolving dependence among key factors, highlighting the nature of the dynamic relationships. Forecasting results, based on a Support Vector Regression model under the European Union’s 2030 climate policy target, indicate a persistently declining emission trajectory, however at an insufficient speed to meet the EU’s 2030 target. Sensitivity analysis indicates that this gap does not reflect a policy failure but the need for accelerated policy adjustments. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Emissions, Energy Transition, Emissions Trading System, Circular Economy, Digitalization, EU Climate Policy |
| JEL: | Q54 Q43 Q58 C55 C32 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2026.14 |
| By: | Cathrine Hagem (Statistics Norway); Snorre Kverndokk; Knut Einar Rosendahl |
| Abstract: | The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) leads to higher electricity prices and thus higher costs for electricity-intensive industries in the EU, reducing their competitiveness compared to those in non EU countries. This disparity may result in carbon leakage, where production shifts abroad, potentially increasing global emissions. To mitigate this, the EU introduced a compensation scheme in 2012, allowing member states to compensate affected industries for the higher electricity prices. This paper explores analytically and numerically the effects of this compensation scheme on production, electricity efficiency, and emissions. We find that while the EU ETS price signal reduces production and increases electricity efficiency, the compensation scheme can counteract these effects by boosting production and potentially reducing electricity efficiency. Additionally, conditional decarbonization or energy efficiency efforts may lead to socially inefficient investments and could have undesired impacts on electricity efficiency. These findings highlight the complex trade-offs in designing effective climate policies that balance environmental goals with industrial competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | Climate policy; EU-ETS; CO2 compensation; electricity efficiency |
| JEL: | D21 H23 Q52 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:1036 |
| By: | Magali Trelohan (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Anne-Cécile Gay; David Moroz (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Damien Chaney (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School) |
| Abstract: | Despite increasing efforts to promote biodiversity protection, a persistent gap remains between policy measures and public expectations. Aligning biodiversity strategies with citizens' concerns is crucial to fostering support and ensuring effective implementation. Building on the environmental governance and ecosystem services literature, this study leverages Large Language Models for embedding-based topic modeling to analyze a large-scale public consultation involving 80, 000 participants, 6000 proposals, and 1.8 million votes in France, identifying eight key biodiversity-related themes: Management of natural and urban spaces, Resource management and pollution control, Wildlife protection and species management, Environmental education and awareness, Agriculture and sustainable food practices, Environmental policy and regulatory measures, Sustainable mobility, energy, and marine conservation, and Emerging and niche concerns. Findings also reveal significant polarization in areas such as hunting regulations, taxation of polluting products, and energy transition, while topics like environmental education and urban greening enjoy strong consensus. These insights highlight the need for differentiated strategies: prioritizing immediate action in consensus areas while fostering dialogue and adaptive policymaking in highly polarized domains. Methodologically, this study demonstrates how Large Language Models can efficiently process and analyze large-scale citizen consultation datasets, offering a scalable approach to capturing public preferences and societal debates in a policy context. |
| Keywords: | Polarization, Large Language Models, Environmental governance, Public consultation, Biodiversity |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05576392 |
| By: | R. Li; C. K. Woo; K. H. Cao; H. Qi (Audencia Business School) |
| Abstract: | We calculate an industry-specific index based on a newly developed formula to assess the affordability of deep decarbonization for seven industries in Australia. At effective carbon rates of up to AU$100 per tonne, the index's range based on cutting 80% of Australia's carbon emissions is 0.003 for construction to 0.270 for basic metals. Hence, a politically feasible net zero policy may require mitigation for the two most carbon-intensive industries. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable development, environmental economics, energy, deep decarbonization, industrial affordability |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05578399 |
| By: | Nathania Vieira de Mello, Benedicta Neysa (United Nations); de Mello, Sergio Alfredo Jose Vieira |
| Abstract: | Climate justice has emerged as one of the most critical ethical, legal, and political frameworks in global climate governance. It is no longer sufficient to treat climate change as a purely scientific or environmental matter, as the crisis increasingly reveals structural inequalities, historical injustice, and uneven global vulnerability. Climate change affects communities differently based on wealth, geographic exposure, political representation, and access to adaptation resources. These unequal impacts reinforce existing social injustices and deepen poverty, displacement, health insecurity, and conflict. This paper, developed by the United Nations Human Rights Educational Project (UNHREP), examines climate justice as a human rights-based framework that connects environmental protection with global equity and sustainable peace. It argues that climate policy must not only aim for emission reduction and technological transition, but also uphold human dignity through accountability mechanisms, inclusive decision-making, and fair distribution of resources. Using a qualitative policy-based approach, this paper integrates human rights principles with climate governance instruments, including the Paris Agreement, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and evolving norms recognizing the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment. The paper highlights that the climate crisis is fundamentally linked to rights such as the right to life, health, food, water, housing, and cultural identity. It also addresses the importance of intergenerational justice and the ethical responsibilities of high-emission states and corporate actors. The paper concludes with the position that climate justice must be operationalized through transparent financing, legally binding accountability, protection of Indigenous and marginalized communities, and climate education that empowers global citizenship. UNHREP recommends stronger mechanisms for loss and damage support, inclusive adaptation governance, and global partnerships rooted in human rights obligations. |
| Date: | 2026–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:uswxd_v1 |
| By: | Omusula, Bryant Darius CLSSYB (SC Johnson & Son Kenya Limited); wanjiru, cecilia; MUSEMBI, PETER LAWRENCE; Ndolo, Jackson |
| Abstract: | The empirical data on how institutional factors affect green procurement procedures and environmental sustainability results in manufacturing companies is compiled in this systematic study. The review, which is based on institutional theory, looks at mimetic, normative, and coercive pressures as the main forces behind the adoption of sustainable procurement. The PRISMA 2020 standards were followed for conducting the systematic review. Peer-reviewed empirical research published between January 2010, and January 2026 were found by searching Scopus, Web of Science, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar, PubMed, Emerald Insight, EBSCOhost, and African Journals Online (AJOL). Organisational reports and ProQuest Dissertations & Theses are examples of grey literature sources that were consulted. 47 studies met the inclusion criteria after 1, 247 data were evaluated by two independent reviewers. JBI checklists and the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) were used to assess quality. Thematic and narrative methods were used to synthesise the data. According to the review, normative forces (professional associations, industry norms), mimetic pressures (competition imitation), and coercive pressures (regulatory requirements) are the most commonly mentioned and powerful institutional drivers of green procurement adoption. The link between institutional demands and environmental sustainability results, such as emissions reduction, waste minimisation, energy efficiency, and regulatory compliance, is partially mediated by green procurement strategies. These correlations are moderated by contextual variables, including company size, industry type, and geographic location. There is little longitudinal and mixed-methods research, and the majority of methodological techniques are quantitative cross-sectional surveys. By clarifying the various impacts of the three pressure types, this analysis offers a theoretical addition to Institutional Theory and a thorough synthesis of the scattered evidence on institutional drivers of green procurement. Practically speaking, the results guide management choices and the creation of policies that promote environmental sustainability in industrial processes. |
| Date: | 2026–04–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:36259_v1 |
| By: | Mateusz Jankiewicz |
| Abstract: | The paper aims to assess the simultaneous relationships among three dimensions of sustainable development, while accounting for modifications to the economic structure and governance quality. The study was conducted across 149 selected countries from 2012 to 2023. To ensure spatial homogeneity, countries are divided into five clusters based on their geographic location. The linkages between the sustainable development pillars are verified using a spatial vector autoregressive (spVAR) model, in which performance in each sustainability dimension is calculated using Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) indices. Moreover, the connections between countries are defined in two ways: (1) as the nearest neighbourhood in the geographical space, (2) as the governance quality level similarity. The results show a significant relationship between sustainable development achievement for individual dimensions in almost all established clusters. The economic and environmental situations are rather negatively related, unlike economic and social sustainability and social and environmental sustainability. Additionally, except for African economies, the sustainability achievement is driven by the ongoing servitisation process. Moreover, the significance of the government quality level for sustainable development performance is concluded. |
| Keywords: | geographical proximity, governance quality, economy servitisation, spatial VAR model, sustainable development |
| JEL: | C51 O14 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2026/330 |
| By: | Fadinger, Harald; Gerster, Andreas; Sauré, Philip; Wanner, Joschka |
| Abstract: | Emissionsverlagerung (Leakage) ist real, aber begrenzt: Studien zeigen, dass etwa 10-30 % der durch EU-Klimapolitik eingesparten Emissionen ins Ausland verlagert werden. Der Großteil der Emissionsreduktionen bleibt jedoch global wirksam, sodass die Politik insgesamt effektiv ist. • Kaum Evidenz für ein "Grünes Paradoxon": Die Befürchtung, dass Klimapolitik zu einem vorgezogenen Anstieg von Emissionen führt, wird empirisch nicht bestätigt. Stattdessen reagieren Unternehmen oft mit geringeren Investitionen in fossile Energien, was Emissionen eher senkt. • EU setzt Instrumente gegen Wettbewerbsnachteile ein: Dazu gehören kostenlose Emissionszertifikate sowie der CO₂-Grenzausgleich (CBAM), der Importe entsprechend ihrer Emissionen bepreist. Ziel ist es, Leakage zu reduzieren und gleiche Wettbewerbsbedingungen zu schaffen. • Wirksamkeit der Instrumente hängt stark vom Design ab: Der aktuelle CBAM erfasst nur wenige Sektoren und hat daher begrenzte Wirkung auf globale Emissionen. Eine Ausweitung auf mehr Sektoren könnte die Emissionsreduktion deutlich erhöhen. • Klimapolitik bringt zusätzliche Vorteile: Neben Emissionsreduktionen fördert sie Innovationen, verbessert die Luftqualität und stärkt Energie- sowie geopolitische Unabhängigkeit. Diese positiven Nebeneffekte erhöhen den Gesamtnutzen der Maßnahmen. |
| Abstract: | Carbon leakage exists but is limited: Studies show that around 10-30% of emissions reduced by EU climate policy are shifted abroad. However, the majority of emission reductions remain effective globally, meaning the policy is overall still effective. • Little evidence for a "green paradox": The concern that climate policy may trigger a short-term increase in emissions is not supported by empirical evidence. Instead, firms often reduce investments in fossil fuels, which tends to lower emissions. • EU uses instruments to address competitiveness concerns: These include free allocation of emission allowances and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which prices imports based on their emissions. The goal is to reduce leakage and ensure a level playing field. • Effectiveness depends on policy design: The current CBAM covers only a limited number of sectors and therefore has a relatively small impact on global emissions. Expanding it to more sectors could significantly increase emission reductions. • Climate policy generates additional benefits: Beyond reducing emissions, it fosters innovation, improves air quality, and strengthens energy security and geopolitical independence. These co-benefits increase the overall value of such policies. |
| Keywords: | Klimapolitik, Leakage, Grünes Paradoxon, EU ETS, CBAM, Climate policy, carbon leakage, the green paradox |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:340033 |
| By: | Niemann, Rainer; Rohlfing-Bastian, Anna |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how ESG-linked executive compensation interacts with carbon taxation in a multitask principal-agent framework. A risk-neutral principal with financial and environmental preferences incentivizes a risk-averse manager to exert productive and abatement effort while facing an exogenous carbon tax on emissions. We show that, in the absence of ESG incentives, carbon taxes reduce emissions mainly by lowering production. In contrast, ESG-linked compensation shifts emission reductions toward increased abatement, allowing the principal to raise expected payoff while simultaneously reducing emissions, both with and without carbon taxation. However, carbon taxes narrow the range of feasible ESG preferences and, at high levels, may induce excessive abatement, potentially leading to negative net emissions. Our results highlight the importance of aligning internal incentive design with external climate regulation. The interplay of ESG compensation and carbon taxes should also be considered from a regulatory perspective. |
| Keywords: | ESG-linked executive compensation, Carbon taxation, Environmental regulation, Climate policy, Managerial incentives |
| JEL: | D82 M52 Q58 Q54 H25 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arqudp:340001 |
| By: | Glenk, Gunther; Gschwind, Katrin; Reichelstein, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Companies across industries seek to assess the costs of complying with environmental regulations and meeting voluntary emission targets. This paper develops a carbon abatement cost model for firms operating a portfolio of assets with differing cost or load profiles. The resulting abatement cost curves serve as a decision tool for configuring individual assets to achieve firm-wide emission reductions at least cost. We apply our model to urban bus fleets regulated under the California Cap-and-Trade Program. We find that a carbon price of $35 per ton of CO2e (2024 average) incentivizes firms to configure their fleets such that batteryelectric drivetrains constitute 70% of usable installed capacity and 92% of annual demand, while diesel drivetrains serve peak loads. Since the resulting emissions are fairly inelastic to the carbon price, we conclude that the life-cycle cost per mile would increase substantially if deep decarbonization were to be induced entirely by higher carbon prices. |
| Keywords: | life-cycle costing, capacity investments, abatement cost curves, carbon emissions, transport decarbonization |
| JEL: | M41 M48 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:340016 |
| By: | Venkatachalam Anbumozhi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | Brunei Darussalam has a strategic opportunity to align climate action with long-term ecological stewardship and economic diversification through the development of a high-integrity forest carbon market. With extensive intact forest cover, strong state-led governance, and globally significant peatland ecosystems, Brunei is well positioned to pursue carbon finance as a complementary policy instrument to support its nationally determined contribution objectives under the Paris Agreement. This policy brief examines the technical, institutional, and governance foundations required to establish a credible forest carbon market in Brunei Darussalam, with a particular focus on peatland-based carbon projects. It underscores the importance of robust data systems, conservative baselines, and comprehensive risk management to ensure environmental integrity. The brief also assesses social and environmental safeguards, benefit-sharing mechanisms, and market-positioning strategies, including participation in voluntary carbon markets and potential engagement under Article 6 cooperative approaches. The analysis finds that while Brunei’s strong legal protections for forests pose challenges for demonstrating additionality, they also provide a solid foundation for generating premium, high-integrity carbon credits if carbon market mechanisms are used to support enhanced conservation, monitoring, and restoration activities. By embedding rights-based safeguards, transparent governance arrangements, and long-term stewardship frameworks, Brunei can position itself as a regional model for people-centred, high-quality forest carbon finance. Latest Articles |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2025-23 |
| By: | Izak, Atiyas |
| Abstract: | The world is significantly behind in meeting the Paris agreement targets. Emissions continue to increase, and investments in climate transition are falling short, as evidenced by a shrinking carbon budget. Developing economies are currently receiving a small share of climate investments, despite their future prominence as major emitters. This paper delves into why current strategies have not met expectations, explores barriers to private investment, and highlights the vital role governments must play in driving large-scale decarbonization. |
| Keywords: | Climate finance, Aid, Development |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2512 |
| By: | Beck, Anne; Pedraza, Alvaro |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how suppliers adjust their decarbonization choices when major customers obtain validated emission-reduction targets. Using global supplier-customer links matched to firm-level emissions and project-level data from voluntary carbon registries, the analysis shows that downstream climate pressure elicits both real and symbolic responses, but in systematically different ways across suppliers. On average, treated suppliers become more likely to adopt climate targets of their own. High-emission suppliers subsequently reduce their emission intensity relative to comparable firms, indicating meaningful operational adjustments. Low-emission suppliers, by contrast, do not further reduce emissions; instead, they expand their use of carbon credits, sharply increasing offset intensity as a lower-cost alternative to additional physical abatement. These offsets disproportionately originate from lower-rated projects, suggesting that increased demand does not translate into pressure for higher-quality credits. Overall, downstream climate commitments induce a sorting in decarbonization strategies: high-emission suppliers undertake substantive reductions, while low-emission suppliers rely more heavily on market-based mechanisms to meet customer expectations. |
| Date: | 2026–02–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11306 |
| By: | Guschanski, Alexander; Wildauer, Rafael |
| Abstract: | We analyse the potential of wealth taxes to reduce CO2 emissions through two transmission channels: the inequality channel, which links reductions in wealth inequality to lower emissions, and the consumption channel, which analyses how wealth taxes affect consumption by top wealth holders. We simulate the effects of various wealth tax designs over one- and ten-year horizons using harmonised microdata from 22 European countries. Our analysis accounts for survey non-response bias, heterogeneous rates of returns across households, and behavioural responses to taxation. We find that, through the inequality channel, an annual progressive wealth tax could reduce annual CO2 emissions by 7.5%–14.7% after ten years relative to a no-tax scenario, depending on tax progressivity. Through the consumption channel, the average reduction is between 1.5%–3.6%. These findings highlight the potential of wealth taxes to serve a dual purpose: curbing wealth concentration and contributing meaningfully to climate mitigation and justice, by focusing on high-net worth households who account for a disproportionate share of emissions. |
| Keywords: | wealth tax; wealth distribution; environmental effect; CO2 emissions |
| Date: | 2025–10–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gpe:wpaper:51227 |
| By: | Raimi, Daniel (Resources for the Future); Joiner, Emily (Resources for the Future); Hubbell, Bryan (Resources for the Future); Lohawala, Nafisa (Resources for the Future); Robertson, Molly (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | The events of 2025 have shaken the global order. Due largely to changes in rhetoric and policy from the United States, key pillars of international economic and security systems have been called into question. The reports we examine here were prepared well before the United States undertook military activities in Venezuela and Iran. They will undoubtably influence modeling and projections in 2026 but are not reflected here. Global expectations around energy and climate, in turn, have been disrupted. A decade after the 2015 Paris Agreement articulated the “stretch goal” of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, it has become clear that achieving this goal is no longer plausible. Global leaders have increasingly focused on energy security and affordability, relegating climate change to a second-tier priority (or lower) in many cases. Still, preventing the worst outcomes of global climate change remains critical, highlighting the importance of continued effort to reduce emissions while ensuring reliable and affordable energy supplies.One way to consider the future of energy and climate is through annual long-term energy outlooks that articulate different trajectories based on varying assumptions about future policies, technologies, costs, and other factors. Outlooks published in 2025 envision a wide range of possible futures but do not chart a plausible path to achieving the 1.5°C target. Specifically, two of the 1.5°C scenarios published in 2025 (BNEF and Equinor) are reproductions of scenarios prepared in previous years, and the 1.5°C scenario of the International Energy Agency (IEA) exceeds 1.6°C before returning to 1.5°C by 2100. Therefore, we generally exclude these scenarios, focusing instead on scenarios that reflect the realities of the current moment.The outlooks we include offer useful insight into the future of energy, but they are not easily comparable because of differences in units, assumptions, geographic groupings, and more. Here we harmonize 15 scenarios across eight organizations to produce as close to apples-to-apples estimates as possible. These outlooks and scenarios are shown in Table 1 and discussed in more detail in Section 4.A brief description of our methodology is provided in Section 4, Data and Methods, with select indicators in Section 5, Statistics. For the full methodology and interactive graphing tools, visit www.rff.org/geo.To enhance interpretability, we use consistent symbology in this report’s figures and the online data tool. We group scenarios into three categories based on their underlying assumptions or, in some cases, their trajectory of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (Table 2):For reference scenarios, which assume no new policies are enacted by governments or follow similar global emissions trajectories, we use a long-dashed line. This set comprises scenarios from Equinor (Plazas), ExxonMobil, IEA (CPS), IEEJ, OPEC, and Total (Trends).For evolving policies scenarios, which assume that policies and technologies develop according to recent trends or the expert views of the team producing the outlook, we use solid lines. This set comprises bp Current Trajectory, BNEF ETS, and IEA STEPS. We also include Equinor Walls, IEEJ Advanced Technologies, and Total Momentum because they follow similar emissions trajectories.Ambitious climate scenarios are not designed around policies but instead are structured to achieve specific climate targets. For these scenarios (bp Below 2°C, Total Rupture), we use a dotted line. We exclude 1.5°C scenarios. |
| Date: | 2026–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-26-06 |
| By: | Chenxi Jiang; Maximiliano Lauletta; Ro’ee Levy; Joseph S. Shapiro; Dmitry Taubinsky |
| Abstract: | Many governments use environmental standards rather than more cost-effective market-based instruments like pollution taxes or cap-and-trade markets. Using a nationally representative survey experiment, we study whether and why limited understanding of economic principles helps explain this practice. Holding environmental impacts constant, respondents prefer standards over market-based instruments, and prefer producer taxes and cap-and-trade over consumer taxes. These preferences reflect consumers’ beliefs about how these policies will affect electricity bills. Respondents also prefer the weakest environmental targets for consumer taxes and the strongest targets for standards, which suggests that policymakers face a tradeoff between policy stringency and cost effectiveness. A separate survey of environmental economists shows that they have strikingly different beliefs about the effects of environmental policies than the respondents in our representative survey. For example, typical respondents—in contrast to environmental economists—believe that environmental standards increase consumer energy bills less than market-based instruments do. Educational videos on pass-through and cost-effectiveness of policies affect policy support and close some of the gap between nationally representative respondents and experts, which suggests that economic literacy is a factor in voters’ preferences. |
| JEL: | C83 D83 D9 H23 Q48 Q50 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35073 |
| By: | Emre Akusta |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the impacts of economic complexity on environmental performance in BRICS-T countries. Annual data for the period 1999-2021, Durbin-Hausman cointegration test and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator are used in the analysis. The robustness of the Panel AMG results is tested with CCEMG and CS-ARDL methods. The results indicate that economic complexity has a positive impact on environmental performance. An increase of 1% in the economic complexity index increases environmental performance in BRICS-T countries between 0.020% and 1.243%. However, economic growth, energy intensity and population density were found to have a negative impact on environmental performance. Renewable energy use, in contrast, contributes positively to environmental performance. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.13150 |
| By: | Bourguignon, Francois |
| Abstract: | The note identifies key flaws in climate finance management, including unclear fund allocation between mitigation and adaptation efforts, confusion over definitions, and potential crowding out of Official Development Assistance (ODA). With developing nations needing far more than $100 billion to meet climate goals, this paper advocates for reforms to optimize the effectiveness and efficiency of climate finance, ensuring that resources meet actual needs and maximize their impact. |
| Keywords: | Climate finance, Aid, Development |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2507 |
| By: | Shin-ichi Fukuda (The University of Tokyo); Akio Ino (Graduate School of International Social Sciences, Yokohama National University) |
| Abstract: | With growing concern about global warming, Green Transformation (GX) is becoming one of the world's biggest policy issues. This paper explores the feasibility of GX from a public finance perspective. Japan is the first country to issue the government-sponsored transition bonds, the GX Economy Transition Bonds. The bonds are designed to subsidize large-scale GX investments, with the future carbon pricing (CP) serving as the source of repayment. We investigate sustainability of the GX Economy Transition Bonds using the two-sector endogenous growth model that consists of dirty and clean sectors. Our simulation result shows that the optimal policy, which creates a virtuous cycle of economic and environmental progress, is unsustainable from a public finance perspective. Increasing the carbon tax rate would not improve the fiscal condition because of the Laffer curve. Decreasing the subsidy rate would improve the fiscal condition only if it sacrifices global warming. This implies that the government is facing a trilemma unless it finances the subsidies through other fiscal sources. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tky:fseres:2026cf1268 |
| By: | Jeanne Astier; Geoffrey Barrows; Raphael Calel; Helene Ollivier; Hélène Ollivier |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a method for estimating treatment effects of local climate shocks when regions trade with each other. Because trade creates spillovers, comparing the change in outcomes of regions with different exposure to shocks leads to biased estimates. We model these between-region spillovers using standard assumptions from international trade theory, and develop a model-consistent strategy for estimating key parameters and deriving counterfactuals. We use our estimation strategy to revisit the literature on the impact of climate change on gross output. We find that accounting for trade spillovers yields substantially larger climate damage projections. |
| Keywords: | climate change, spillovers, trade, gravity |
| JEL: | Q48 L1 L5 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12602 |
| By: | Reena Singh (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ashok Gulati; Purvi Thangaraj |
| Abstract: | Punjab and Haryana have long played a pioneering role in shaping India's agricultural transformation, when it was needed the most. With the adoption of input-intensive technologies during the Green Revolution, Punjab emerged as the leader in transforming Indian agriculture during the 1970s and 1980s, with Haryana following closely. This transformation led to a substantial increase in wheat and rice productivity, thereby significantly strengthening government procurement of these staple crops and ensuring food security of the country. Further, India has emerged as the largest producer of rice in the world and also the largest exporter with a share of 40 per cent in global exports of rice during Marketing Year 2025 (USDA, 2026). At the same time, the environmental costs of sustaining national food security have been substantial. Intensive paddy (rice) cultivation practices have placed severe stress on natural resources, leading to the degradation of land and depletion of groundwater in both states. Yet, farmers continue to grow this crop due to profitability and its assured procurement from the government. |
| Keywords: | agri-market, Farmer Income, carbon credits, export, national food security, Punjab, Haryana, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:26-r-13 |
| By: | Sumaya Islam (Paderborn University) |
| Abstract: | .Green start-ups are frequently portrayed as major drivers of the sustainable revolution, yet little is known about their true risk of insolvency. Using a population-wide register dataset of 30, 523 German startups, the failure rates of green and non-green startups are compared. While there is a theoretical argument that a commitment to sustainability provides legitimacy and access to patient capital, the empirical evidence is still scarce and dependent on the context and ecosystem. The results are striking. Using survival analysis, it is shown that green startups are significantly more likely to fail than non-green startups both in the short and long term. These time patterns are consistent: green startups are more likely to go into insolvency than non-green startups not only during the first years of life but also at later stages of firm development. This evidence challenges the existence of a green survival premium and suggests a liability of newness and greenness; that is, engaging in sustainability makes startups more unstable throughout their life cycle. Overall, these findings provide a more refined comprehension of sustainable entrepreneurship by highlighting the structural and persistent nature of the risks of failure of green startups. They also invite governments and investors to reconsider their policies of support and to develop long-term instruments that better match the specific risk profiles and capital needs of sustainability-oriented startups. |
| Keywords: | ... (keywords) |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:167 |
| By: | Wambui, Reuben; Cheruiyot, Josea |
| Abstract: | In the face of escalating climate challenges, mobilizing private capital for climate finance has never been more critical. This new paper delves into the significant yet underutilized role of guarantees as a blended finance instrument. |
| Keywords: | Guarantees, Climate Finance, De-risking Instruments, Blended Finance |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2509 |
| By: | Christian Velasquez (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the macroeconomic implications of state and sector-specific sensitivity to weather fluctuations and interregional production networks in the United States. I build a general equilibrium model where the impact of weather fluctuations on productivity is state-sector dependent, and networks expose sectors to weather shocks from other regions through intermediate inputs. To quantify these mechanisms, I use annual data on sectoral GDP and weather by state from 1970 to 2019. My estimates show that models that do not consider these characteristics underestimate the aggregate impact of weather fluctuations by at least a factor of 3. In particular, when the whole economy faces an unexpected increase in temperature of 1 Celsius degree, the contraction in economic activity increases from -0.13 to -0.37 percent once heterogeneity is considered and -1.14 percent when networks are included. |
| Keywords: | weather fluctuations, production, climate change, networks, spatial heterogeneity, GDP |
| JEL: | E23 F18 O13 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2025-020 |
| By: | Luis E. Gonzales; Koichiro Ito; Mar Reguant |
| Abstract: | Electricity reliability is a central challenge for the energy transition, as growing energy demand, renewable energy integration, and natural disasters increase the risk of large-scale black- outs. However, the economic impacts of large-scale blackouts remain largely unknown. Combining electricity market data with high-frequency economic transaction data from Chile, we find that economic activity declined by 35 percent on the nationwide blackout day, but half of this loss was recovered on subsequent days, highlighting the importance of intertemporal substitution. Exploiting spatial variation in blackout severity, we show that accounting for endogenous recovery is critical when estimating the marginal value of lost load. |
| JEL: | Q4 Q40 Q43 Q5 Q50 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35066 |
| By: | Jorge Pozo (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú); Youel Rojas (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how physical risks disrupt business cycles and hinder the role of monetary policy in stabilizing the economy. We look for evidence to determine whether the effects of natural disasters resemble demand-side shocks or supply-side shocks. We utilize data on natural disasters at both the country-quarter and country-year levels from various sources to ensure the robustness of our analysis. We find evidence that natural disasters act as supplyside shocks, exerting inflationary pressures while simultaneously contracting GDP growth and the output gap, which are persistent. This feature of natural disasters implies that monetary policy strategy becomes more challenging and uncertain following the occurrence of these events. However, these results are heterogeneous cross types of disasters, groups of countries, and the severity of the disaster. In low-income countries, the effects of natural disasters are more severe. In high-income countries the non-linear effects become more important. |
| Keywords: | Natural disasters, supply shocks, monetary policy trade-off, inflation, GDP growth, output gap. |
| JEL: | E32 E52 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2025-012 |
| By: | Martin, Lucie; Timmons, Shane; Lunn, Pete |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp823 |
| By: | Federico Carril-Caccia (Department of International and Spanish Economics, University of Granada); Ana Cuadros (University of Jaume I); Juliette Milgram Baleix (Department of International and Spanish Economics, University of Granada) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of environmental regulation (ER) on foreign direct investment (FDI) location decisions, using a gravity model covering the period 2003–2018. We examine how ER in both origin and destination countries influences bilateral FDI flows, distinguishing between greenfield (GF) investments and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). To our knowledge, this is the first study of FDI location decisions to jointly analyse the responses of bilateral M&A and GF projects to ER across a large sample of developed and developing countries and manufacturing industries. Overall, we find no consistent evidence supporting either the pollution haven hypothesis (PHH) or the green haven hypothesis (GHH) for total FDI. However, results differ by mode of investment: stricter ER in the origin country encourages outward M&As, but has no significant effect on GF projects. Conversely, ER in host countries appears to exert limited pull effects. Further analysis by sector (clean versus dirty industries) and by country income level reveals important heterogeneity in these effects. For pollution-intensive sectors, tighter regulation in high-income countries is associated with greater outward M&A activity and GF investment directed toward low- and middle-income hosts-an allocation consistent with the PHH. In contrast, in clean industries, GF investment is positively associated with stricter ER in the origin country, lending support to the GHH. Taken together, these results suggest that stricter ER need not deter investment, especially in clean industries or via GF projects; however, in pollution-intensive activities, reallocation through cross-border M&As toward low- and middle-income countries remains a concern. |
| Keywords: | Environmental regulation; Foreign Direct Investment; Pollution Haven Hypothesis; Green Haven Hypothesis; Mergers and Acquisitions; Greenfield investments; Gravity model |
| JEL: | F21 F64 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202608 |
| By: | Centorrino, S.; Massetti, E.; Mohaddes, K.; Raissi, M.; Yang, J-C. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how increasing temperatures have affected the economies of 195 countries between 1960 and 2022, focusing on income losses caused by gradual shifts to new climate conditions. We contribute to the expanding literature on climate-macroeconomic linkages by developing a dynamic heterogeneous panel model that distinguishes between the long-term and short-term effects, accounts for adaptation through rolling climate norms, and addresses key econometric challenges including non-stationarity, cross-country heterogeneity, and unobserved global factors. Our findings reveal that a sustained 0.01°C annual increase in temperatures above historical climate norms reduces global GDP per capita growth by 0.05 percentage points per year, with income losses accumulating as long as temperatures keep increasing. This effect is 70% larger than what would be estimated under a homogeneous panel specification. Contrary to much of the existing literature, no country appears immune to the impacts of rising temperatures: middle- and high-income nations, as well as those in temperate or cold, and hot climate zones, all exhibit persistent (though not permanent) growth slowdowns, with income losses linked to how quickly they adapt. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Growth, Adaptation, Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels, Cross-Section Dependence |
| JEL: | C23 O40 O44 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–03–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2617 |
| By: | Kenny Kutu (Department of Business Management, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Renee van Eyden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Sonali Das (Department of Business Management, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa; National Institute for Theoretical and Computational Sciences (NITheCS), South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the impact of climate risks on the prices of agricultural commodities in South Africa, a nation with heightened levels of poverty, subsequent household food insecurity and food price sensitivities. Composite climate risks, including both physical and transition risks, are captured through a Google Trends-based Climate Attention Index for South Africa. Panel fixed effects, feasible generalised least squares and seemingly unrelated regression estimators are applied to a panel of 16 agricultural commodities for the period 2004--2024. Results show that climate risks are inflationary, possibly through supply-related channels, where climate risks reduce yields, resulting in a subsequent increase in prices. The feasible generalised least square estimation suggests that a one unit increase in the composite climate risk index can result, on average, in a 0.023 percentage point increase in real commodity price growth rates for production growth at the mean, ceteris paribus. Additionally, allowing for heterogeneity in the slope parameters through a seemingly unrelated regression model shows that real horticultural product prices are generally more sensitive to composite climate risks. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Commodity Prices, Climate Attention Index, Composite Climate Risks, Panel Data, South Africa, SDG2 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202612 |
| By: | Cortez, Michael Angelo A.; Rivera, John Paolo R. |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance and corporate financial performance (CFP) among publicly listed firms in the Philippines from 2015 to 2024. Using Bloomberg's ESG scores, a triangulated econometric framework was employed that combines contemporaneous estimation via Feasible Generalized Least Squares and dynamic panel modeling via the Panel Generalized Method of Moments. The analysis incorporated both aggregated ESG scores and disaggregated pillars—Environmental (E), Social (S), and Governance (G)—and examined their respective impacts across a comprehensive set of CFP indicators, including profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth, and market valuation. Results revealed that Governance performance emerged as the most consistently significant predictor, demonstrating positive associations with firm growth and market-based metrics. Governance scores also exerted robust contemporaneous effects, particularly on asset growth and market capitalization. However, social performance exhibited delayed financial implications, with lagged effects primarily influencing profitability indicators in the dynamic panel model. Environmental scores showed limited and less consistent impact, reflecting the underweighting of environmental strategies in firm-level financial outcomes during the period. Meanwhile, macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) were included as moderators. While GDP growth had minimal influence, WACC remained a binding constraint in specific governance-CFP pathways, indicating the persistent role of capital cost management in sustainability-aligned financial decisions. These findings provide actionable insights for corporate managers, investors, and policymakers by highlighting the financial relevance of governance-driven ESG strategies, the time-sensitive value of social investments, and the need to manage capital costs prudently to promote ESG-aligned performance. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | ESG performance, corporate financial performance, governance and firm value, dynamic panel data, Philippine publicly listed firms |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2026-06 |
| By: | Kulshreshtha, Shobhit; Bhattacharya, Leena; van Soest, Arthur |
| Abstract: | Rising temperatures due to climate change pose significant challenges to how much and how effectively individuals can work, particularly in low- and middle-income countries such as India, where exposure to extreme heat is becoming more common. While existing research documents adverse effects of heat on labor outcomes, little is known about how individuals adjust their work patterns within a day. This study examines the impact of ambient temperature on time allocation, with a focus on intraday substitution of time spent on paid work. The study uses nationally representative data from the 2019 Indian Time Use Survey combined with high-frequency temperature data measured at 30-minute intervals. We estimate the effect of temperature on total daily time spent on paid work and on the likelihood of working during specific periods of the day. Our results show that extreme heat has limited effects on overall daily work hours but leads to substantial intraday reallocation of labor. Individuals shift work from the hottest periods midday toward early morning or late evening. This pattern is primarily driven by younger men and workers in self-employed or agricultural jobs, who have greater flexibility in their schedules and are more exposed to ambient heat. In contrast, salaried workers reduce work during peak heat without compensatory increases at other times. These findings highlight the importance of flexible work arrangements and targeted heat-mitigation policies to sustain productivity and worker well-being in a warming climate. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, time use, paid work, India |
| JEL: | J22 J24 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1738 |
| By: | Noé Viguié |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the Natural Resource Curse (NRC) in the case of Critical Raw Materials (CRM), a strategic input for the energy transition. Using USGS production data for 1970–2019, we distinguish between dependence (CRM production as a share of GDP) and abundance (CRM production per capita). We argue that dependence is endogenous and a misleading proxy of resource endowment. Our cross-sectional model averaging shows no robust impact of CRM on growth, while primary export dependence has only a fragile, time-sensitive negative effect. Panel estimations for 44 countries, using advanced static and dynamic estimators, point to the same conclusion: weak and inconsistent results, with the apparent negative effect of CRM dependence largely driven by endogeneity. Overall, our findings reject the idea of a universal CRM curse. Instead, they highlight how measurement choices and endogeneity critically shape the NRC debate. While appropriate policies should address potential negative externalities and encourage diversification as well as the capture of greater value added along the CRM supply chain, our findings suggest that, to ensure long-term growth, traditional factors–such as human capital accumulation, infrastructure, andinstitutional quality and stability–should remain central. |
| Keywords: | natural resources curse; critical raw materials; natural resources abundance; natural resources dependence |
| JEL: | O13 Q32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-8 |
| By: | Ghazal Layeghi (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano); Adrian Borbély (EM - EMLyon Business School); Andrea Caputo (UNITN - Università degli Studi di Trento = University of Trento) |
| Abstract: | Purpose: This study aims to contribute to the intersection of negotiation and sustainability. These two domains have often overlooked each other's importance despite their shared concerns with cooperation, coordination and value creation. Our study moves beyond descriptive mapping by integrating fragmented research streams and, through a set of original propositions, offers a forward-looking agenda for research and practice. Design/methodology/approach: This paper relies on a structured review of the literature, using the bibliometric-systematic literature review (B-SLR) framework. Findings: Our analysis identifies four main clusters. This work indicates a one-sided engagement: most contributions come from sustainability studies, with limited input from negotiation scholars. Highlighting the absence of an integrative theoretical lens, we suggest that stakeholder theory could bridge the domains. The findings confirm that negotiation is a constitutive process through which sustainability goals are pursued, not merely an instrumental tool. Social implications: For sustainability to move from intention to reality, it must be negotiated. Effective negotiation is vital for firms dealing with internal demands, navigating diverse stakeholder expectations and implementing key initiatives like environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices. This study provides the crucial theoretical framework needed to analyse these processes, ensuring that ambitious sustainability goals are translated into credible, actionable and effective real-world results. Originality/value: Through our six propositions, the study advances a new understanding of how negotiation and sustainability intersect and mutually shape one another. These propositions reframe negotiation as a constitutive process rather than a transactional tool, linking micro-level interactions with macro-level sustainability outcomes and offering new conceptual directions for future research. |
| Keywords: | Due diligence, Literature reviews, Stakeholders, Systematic review, Negotiation, Decision making, Cooperation, Collaboration, Bibliometrics, Bibliographic coupling |
| Date: | 2026–03–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05581311 |
| By: | Vinod J. Kannankeril Joseph (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the association between thermal stress and child health outcomes in India by linking individual-level data from the National Family Health Survey (2019–21) with high-resolution climate reanalysis data. The study examines the effects of multiple thermal indicators, 2 m temperature, mean radiant temperature, and Universal Thermal Climate Index on stunting, wasting, underweight, and concurrent stunting and wasting among children under five. Logistic regression models adjusted for socioeconomic and maternal characteristics indicate that the likelihood of acute undernutrition (wasting and underweight) increases significantly with higher heat exposure, particularly among socioeconomically disadvantaged households, whereas stunting levels decrease. The analysis identifies heterogeneity by sex, residence, maternal education, and access to electricity. The findings underscore the role of heat stress as a determinant of acute child malnutrition, particularly in socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. Integrating climate information into public health and nutrition programs is critical to safeguarding child growth and resilience in a warming climate. |
| Keywords: | India, child nutrition, climate, health |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2026-011 |
| By: | Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Khamidov, Imomjon; Davronova, Durdonabonu |
| Abstract: | Emerging discourses present evidence from post-Soviet countries, suggesting that remittances may complement household resilience capacity in the face of climate change. This manuscript, using “COVID-19 Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS)” data from the World Bank, aims to analyse the effect of remittance on household resilience capacity in Georgia. The measurement strategy employs the Resilience Index Measurement Analysis (RIMA) approach, as proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). RIMA measures Resilience Index Capacity (RCI) through available household adaptive options (pillars): Access to Basic Services (ABS), Adaptive Capacity (AC), Social Safety Nets (SSN), and Sensitivity (S). The results of the econometric model indicate that remittance has a positive impact on RCI, primarily through the ABS and AC pillars. Further policies in Georgia should consider the role of remittances in enhancing household resilience, ensuring that the negative consequences of shocks do not have long-lasting effects on household livelihoods. |
| Keywords: | Remittance, climate change, household resilience, capacity |
| JEL: | A1 Q00 C1 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:339912 |
| By: | Bidoia, M.; Harvey, A.; Palumbo, D. |
| Abstract: | Data on maxima and minima arise in climate and environment, as well as in economics and finance. Specific examples include rainfall, river level and air quality. This article proposes a new score-driven time series model for dealing with such data. A modification, called the composite score, is used to guarantee invertibility. The statistical properties of the maximum likelihood estimator are investigated and applications to river flow and temperature shows that the model works well in practice. The composite score technique may well prove useful in other situations. |
| Keywords: | Frechet Distribution, Gumbel Distribution, Invertibility, Maximum, River Flow, Score |
| JEL: | C22 |
| Date: | 2026–03–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2620 |
| By: | Moretz-Sohn, Caio; Costa, Francisco J M (FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impacts of protected area downsizing and degazettement (PADD) on land-use dynamics in the Brazilian Amazon. Analyzing PADD events implemented between 2009 and 2015, we compare estimates from standard difference-in-differences methods to synthetic difference-in-differences, which addresses violations of parallel trends arising from selective treatment assignment. We show that conventional difference-in-differences estimates yield null effects, consistent with prior literature. Synthetic difference-in-differences estimates, however, show that PADD increases deforestation by approximately 23% relative to pre-treatment baselines, driven by a 40% increase in pastureland expansion and a 3, 471% increase in mining area growth. The divergence in results suggests that earlier null findings reflect methodological limitations rather than the absence of actual effects. Our findings underscore the importance of legal protection for environmental outcomes, especially in politically or economically contested areas. |
| Date: | 2026–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wgkty_v1 |
| By: | Ababou, Adil |
| Abstract: | This paper highlights how debt swaps can be a crucial mechanism in achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and improving debt sustainability. To date, nine debt swaps have been implemented across seven countries, primarily in the Americas, releasing nearly $1.7 billion. When structured effectively around specific objectives, debt swaps can deliver substantial impacts. This paper emphasizes that as debt swaps expand into diverse sectors and stakeholders, they should be viewed as vital tools for public finance. Importantly, these flows offer predictability and reliability due to: long-term financial commitments that transcend typical economic and political cycles, a robust institutional and legal framework to withstand various shocks, and collaboration among multiple stakeholders. The unique structure and legal aspects of these flows warrant detailed examination to maximize their potential for advancing development outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Debt Swaps, Development Finance, Sovereign Debt, Financial Instruments, Climate Finance |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2503 |
| By: | Morgane Gonon (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Hugo Mosneron Dupin (La République des savoirs : Lettres, Sciences, Philosophie - CdF (institution) - Collège de France - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département de Philosophie - ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Since the 1970s, ecological economics has promoted the materialisation of economic analysis through the lens of matter and energy flows, hybridising economic concepts with biophysical knowledge. This perspective has progressively diffused into mainstream environmental economics — a development that, at first glance, appears to constitute an ontological and epistemological victory for the embedded economy tradition. Yet re-embedding and the mobilisation of material knowledge are insufficient to strengthen economics' capacity to orient the ecological transformations that are now required. By concentrating on the economy–biosphere interface and deploying a utilitarian rationality aimed at demonstrating the economic case for preservation, materialised economics tends to render invisible the socio-economic conflicts, institutional conditions of action, and structural obstacles to reducing anthropogenic pressures. Biophysical analyses contribute primarily three types of inputs — information, prices, or optimal quantities — whose transformative reach remains limited. These limitations delineate an impossibility triangle for the discipline: simultaneously representing biophysical dynamics, socio-economic systems, and operational levers for transformation. Re-embedding renders things visible, but does not supply the conditions for implementing transformative policies. The article proposes a distinction between ecological objectives (EOs) — defined by compliance with biophysical constraints — and normative ecological objectives (NEOs), which explicitly formulate policies, regulations, or economic actors' courses of action. Material knowledge must be translated into NEOs, while economic analysis focuses on examining their socio-economic, distributional, institutional, and financial consequences. The proposed framework organises a six-step research programme oriented towards analysing the conditions of possibility for ecological transformations, rather than demonstrating their economic rationality. This reorientation refocuses economics on its proper objects — production, distribution, institutions, and conflict — while preserving the biophysical constraint, and enables the articulation of material knowledge, political decision-making, and economic analysis within a consequentialist perspective. |
| Abstract: | Depuis les années 1970, l'économie écologique a promu la matérialisation de l'analyse économique fondée sur les flux de matière et d'énergie, en hybridant les concepts économiques et les savoirs biophysiques. Cette perspective s'est progressivement diffusée jusqu'à l'économie de l'environnement dominante, ce qui constitue à première vue une victoire ontologique et épistémologique de l'économie encastrée. Cependant, le réencastement et la mobilisation de savoirs matériels ne suffisent pas à renforcer la capacité de la discipline économique à orienter les transformations écologiques nécessaires. En se concentrant sur l'interface économie-biosphère et en mobilisant une rationalité utilitaire visant à démontrer l'intérêt économique de la préservation, l'économie matérialisée tend à invisibiliser les conflictualités socio-économiques, les conditions institutionnelles de l'action et les obstacles à la réduction des pressions anthropiques. Les analyses biophysiques apportent principalement trois types de contributions — information, prix ou quantité optimale — dont la portée transformative demeure limitée. Ces limites dessinent un « triangle d'impossibilité » pour la discipline économique : représenter simultanément les dynamiques biophysiques, les systèmes socio-économiques et des leviers de transformation opérationnels. L'encastrement permet essentiellement de rendre visible, sans fournir les conditions de mise en œuvre de politiques transformatrices. L'article propose une distinction entre objectifs écologiques (OE) — définis par le respect de contraintes biophysiques — et objectifs écologiques normatifs (OEN), qui formulent explicitement des politiques, réglementations ou actions d'acteurs économiques. Les savoirs matériels doivent être traduits en OEN, tandis que l'analyse économique se concentre sur l'étude de leurs conséquences socio-économiques, distributives, institutionnelles et financières. Le formalisme proposé organise ainsi un programme de recherche en six étapes visant à analyser les conditions de possibilité des transformations écologiques plutôt qu'à en démontrer la rationalité économique. Ce déplacement recentre la science économique sur ses objets propres — production, distribution, institutions et conflits — tout en maintenant la contrainte biophysique, et permet d'articuler savoirs matériels, décision politique et analyse économique dans une perspective conséquentialiste. |
| Keywords: | Environmental economics, Ecological economics, Political ecology, Political economy |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-05567895 |
| By: | Alloysius Joko Purwanto (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Yasushi Ueki |
| Abstract: | ASEAN’s automotive industry is entering a critical transition phase as electrification, digitalisation, and decarbonisation reshape global vehicle markets. While electric vehicle (EV) adoption is accelerating across ASEAN, the region faces structural challenges: policy uncertainty, prolonged market stagnation, and fragmented industrial competitiveness. At the same time, ASEAN remains a vital production base in the global automotive value chain, particularly for internal combustion engine (ICE) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). This policy brief draws on ERIA’s ongoing work under the ASEAN–Japan Co-Creation Initiative and the proposed ASEAN–Japan Next-Generation Vehicle Industry Masterplan. It argues that ASEAN’s transition should follow varied, differentiated pathways rather than a single, linear electrification trajectory. A phased and diversified approach – combining ICE, HEV, x EV, sustainable fuels, and mobility services – is essential to preserve industrial competitiveness while advancing climate objectives. The brief outlines a strategic framework built around three pillars: (i) technology and market transition pathways; (ii) industrial transformation through decarbonisation, digitalisation, and servitisation; and (iii) strengthened regional and ASEAN–Japan collaboration. It concludes with policy recommendations to enhance policy predictability, mobilise investment, and position ASEAN as a resilient and competitive hub in the global next-generation vehicle ecosystem. Latest Articles |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2025-22 |
| By: | Beth Forys; Paul Hindsley; O. Ashton Morgan; John C. Whitehead |
| Abstract: | Harmful algal blooms (HABs) reduce the amenity quality and perceived safety of coastal and freshwater resources. Events trigger avoidance behavior by residents and visitors and contribute to broader economic losses. Managers need economic welfare measures that correspond to the intensity categories used in public advisories. We quantify how advisory-defined HAB risk alters the expected value of outdoor recreation trips in South Florida for two hazards: cyanobacteria (blue-green algae; microcystins) and red tide (Karenia brevis). We administer a split-sample contingent valuation survey in four waves (Dynata; April 2024 to March 2025; n = 4, 135; 12, 405 trip decisions). Respondents first identified the destination of their next South Florida trip from 11 regions and then evaluated randomized trip-cost increases and HAB intensity scenarios aligned with Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission red tide tiers and U.S. EPA microcystin benchmarks. In our preferred model, we address hypothetical bias using a stacked logit model that calibrates for choice certainty and stated attribute non-attendance. In the most conservative specification, per-travel-party willingness to pay for an overnight trip is about US$1, 250 under no advisory, falls to roughly US$560Ð660 under low-intensity advisories, and drops to about US$200Ð330 under medium to high HAB intensity. These changes imply avoidance values of approximately US$600Ð700 per trip at low intensity and US$940Ð1, 040 at medium to high intensity, with stated trip taking probabilities near 50% at medium/high risk. Holding trip counts fixed (valuing observed trips only) and excluding substitution, a back-of-the-envelope calculation for Lee County, FL visitation over a 60-day event window suggests order-of-magnitude recreational welfare losses of US$17Ð58 million for cyanobacteria and US$60Ð103 million for red tide. These intensity-specific estimates provide transferable inputs for benefitÐcost analysis of South Florida water-management operations and nutrient-reduction policies. Key Words: harmful algal blooms, contingent valuation method, hypothetical bias, attribute non-attendance, choice certainty, willingness to pay |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:26-05 |
| By: | Bedossa, Bastien; Cavallini, Andrea; Kammourieh, Sima; Kessler, Martin |
| Abstract: | Country platforms are coordination mechanisms set up by developing countries to mobilize domestic and international financing sources for shared climate and development objectives. In a sense, such an approach is far from new, but it has been reinvigorated by the scale of investment needs in development and climate, which are estimated to require trillions of dollars annually in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs). |
| Keywords: | Climate Action, Country Platforms, Financing, Structural Transformation, Economic Development, Resilience |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notfdl:2502 |
| By: | Sebastien Gallet; Julja Prodani; Kitty Rang |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a top-down stress testing framework for estimating the financial (stability) impact of nature degradation. The methodology links the three components of the NGFS conceptual framework on nature-related risks: nature, the economy, and the financial sector. In the first step, a shock on nature, e.g. water scarcity, is calibrated based on the macroeconomic impact of proxy scenarios of nature degradation. We then estimate the impact of this shock on nature on companies. For this, we modify the Merton model (Merton, Robert C. 1974) to account for the vulnerability of companies to nature. The resulting higher probabilities of default are the main driver of credit and market risk losses for banks and insurers respectively. While the framework we introduce is general and can be applied to multi-dimensional nature shocks and joint climate-nature shocks, in quantification we focus on water as a sub-category of nature. The results show that the financial‑stability implications of nature‑related disruptions can be quantified in a coherent manner. Losses are allocated according to sectoral, geographical and ecosystem‑service vulnerabilities. The framework delivers granular indicators – from sectoral production impacts to market revaluations and prudential ratios – supporting a wide set of analytical and supervisory applications. |
| Keywords: | nature degradation; ecosystem services; biodiversity loss; dependence score; financial stability; risk; credit risk; market risk; Merton model |
| JEL: | G21 G28 Q57 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:857 |
| By: | Gilles A Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Guano, a natural fertilizer derived from seabird excrement, is exceptionally rich in phosphates, nitrates, and potassium, essential for crop growth and soil restoration. In the nineteenth century, Peru's islands contained vast deposits that fueled intensive agriculture, particularly in Europe. Extraction relied on immigrant labor under harsh conditions and required sophisticated coordination among local producers, traders, and maritime carriers. Exposure to storms, piracy, and political conflicts demonstrated that economic strength alone could not secure export flows. Reliance on a limited number of islands made supply chains highly vulnerable, highlighting the necessity of diversifying sources and maintaining strategic reserves. The guano trade provides early evidence that resilient agricultural commodity chains depend on proactive planning, logistical flexibility, and multi-stakeholder collaboration. Lessons from this historical case offer a framework for modern agricultural systems to withstand environmental, economic, and geopolitical shocks. By emphasizing anticipation, diversification, and operational margins, the guano case illustrates how continuity of procurement and agricultural productivity can be preserved, providing actionable insights for contemporary food security, sustainable fertilizer management, and the strategic handling of critical resources. |
| Keywords: | critical resources, food security, guano, history, logistics, resource dependence, supply chain, Agriculture |
| Date: | 2026–04–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05582105 |
| By: | Guillaume Denos (IAE Angers - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Angers - UA - Université d'Angers, GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Mathias Guérineau (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, CRG I3 - Centre de Recherche en Gestion I3 - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Etienne Capron (DRM - MLAB - Dauphine Recherches en Management - MLAB - DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Faced with grand challenges and complex problems, society urgently needs to develop alternative solutions to transition toward a more sustainable model. Among these challenges, food is at the forefront. To tackle the challenge of transitioning toward a sustainable food system, some actors are seeking to develop alternative food systems, referring to actors and initiatives aimed at creating new relationships between producers and consumers, in opposition to intensive agriculture and the domination of multinationals (Michel, 2019).Addressing these major challenges often involves transformative social innovations. This term describe these "shared activities, ideas and objects across locally rooted sustainability initiatives that explore and develop alternatives to incumbent and (perceived) unsustainable regimes that they seek to challenge, alter or replace" (Loorbach et al., 2020, p. 254). Empirical cases of solutions at different stages of the food chain have been explored in the literature (e.g. Colombo et al., 2023; Michel, 2019). More generally, the literature has shown that transformative social innovations are generally seen as emerging from a local problem identified by actors in a region (Mazzei, 2017). However, relatively similar solutions are used in different regions. For example, different models of energy cooperatives exist in different European countries, and even within the same country with nuances depending on the region (Baileche et al., 2024; Bauwens et al., 2020; Geskus et al., 2024). Remains one persistent question : how to scale these innovations.To contrast with conventional definitions of scaling, where the objective is the organization's economic growth, researchers have developed a framework in which scaling refers to maximizing the impact of the organization and its social and environmental mission (Colombo et al., 2023). Different types of scaling routes have been identified theoretically and empirically (e.g. Bauwens et al., 2020; Colombo et al., 2023; Westley et al., 2014). These studies show that scaling is a temporal process, which follows an evolutionary and non-linear This work is in line with the multi-scale perspective of transition processes (Binz et al., 2020; Coenen et al., 2012) to better understand how transformative social innovations develop within and between regions. We contribute to a better understanding of the scaling process of transformative social innovations in two ways. First, by reversing the perspective to the actors who adopt and implement social innovations locally, we extend the actors to be considered and highlight a process that is not unidirectional, but can come from the intentions, resources and actions of actors who adopt and translate innovations. Second, by studying how organizations implement transformative social innovation through placemaking (Cartel et al., 2022; Fohim et al., 2024), we explore how local and extra-local resources are combined to connect their organisation to the local context and materialise in a place. |
| Keywords: | Solidarity restaurants, Transformative social innovation, Place, Scaling |
| Date: | 2025–10–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05583293 |
| By: | Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and Institut d’Economia de Barcelona); Rosa Sanchis-Guarner (Universitat de Barcelona and Institut d’Economia de Barcelona); Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal (Universitat de Barcelona, Institut d’Economia de Barcelona and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys recent literature estimating the causal effects of urban transport investments and urban mobility policies on housing markets. We synthesise evidence along three dimensions: the capitalisation of accessibility gains, the internalisation of transport-related externalities, and the rise of green mobility initiatives. Results indicate that while improved accessibility is generally capitalised into higher property values, negative externalities—such as noise, pollution, and congestion—can attenuate or reverse these effects. Policies such as congestion pricing, zoning reforms, and low-emission zones also influence these outcomes, highlighting how institutions, network design, and local environmental conditions shape the housing market’s response to transport investments. Recent green interventions in city centres have shown an even stronger impact on housing prices, although they can also create spillover effects in nearby neighbourhoods. |
| Keywords: | transportation, housing prices, within cities |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2601 |
| By: | DeAngeli, Emma (Resources for the Future); Walls, Margaret A. (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Extreme precipitation events are increasing in many areas of the United States, leading to a growing number of damaging flood events. Nature-based solutions (NBS), which use natural features or processes to absorb and redirect floodwaters away from developed areas, are often seen as environmentally friendly alternatives to hard infrastructure for flood protection, such as levees and seawalls. Some NBS are small-scale, but stormwater parks are often several acres in size and provide important community co-benefits in the form of outdoor recreation. In this report, we describe the double-duty performed by stormwater parks in three cities in the United States, Atlanta, Houston, and Virginia Beach. We explain how the cities overcame five major challenges to successfully design, construct, and finance the parks. We then discuss the special challenges that small towns face in developing solutions to flooding problems and describe the situation in two Maryland towns where valuable community parks are flooding hot spots. |
| Date: | 2026–04–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-26-07 |
| By: | Chenhui Zhang (University of Waterloo [Waterloo]); Capucine Nouvel Zurcher (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières); Daniel Monfort Climent (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières); Steven Young (University of Waterloo [Waterloo]) |
| Abstract: | Voluntary Sustainability Standards (VSS) are playing an increasingly central role in the governance of sustainability in the mining, minerals, and metals (M3) sectors. Yet their development remains fragmented and under-documented. This study makes four key contributions. First, it proposes a sector-specific definition of VSS, highlighting their voluntary and non-governmental nature, sustainability orientation, and use of assurance mechanisms. Second, it compiles a comprehensive and conceptually consistent database of 38 active VSS, covering both artisanal and large-scale mining systems across the value chain, as well as 6 market- and trade-related standards. Third, it constructs a longitudinal timeline (2002–2026) of VSS evolution, identifying four distinct phases – initiation, expansion, acceleration, and consolidation – shaped by reputational crises, institutional responses, and regulatory alignment. Finally, it maps interconnections among standards and their references to international frameworks, including the OECD, UN, ILO, and ISO foundations. These contributions provide a unique empirical foundation and conceptual framework for evaluating the effectiveness, coherence, and institutional positioning of VSS in global mineral governance. The study advances theoretical discussions on polycentric and hybrid governance, offers practical guidance for policymakers, firms, and NGOs navigating increasingly complex certification landscapes, and lays groundwork for future research on the institutionalization and harmonization of sustainability standards |
| Keywords: | Voluntary sustainability standards, Mining, Minerals, Metals, Timeline |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05581961 |
| By: | Chao Li; Xing Su; Chao Fan; Yang Li; Luping Li; Chunmo Zheng; Wenglong Chao; Leena Jarvi; Han Lin; Juan Tu |
| Abstract: | While climate-induced population migration has received rising attention, the role played by human climate endeavors remains underexplored. Here, we combine machine learning with attribution mapping to analyze the impacts of 4, 713 heat-related policies (HPs) on 11, 177 migration flows between U.S. counties. We find that heat adaptation policies (APs) and heat mitigation policies (MPs) have significant and opposing impacts on internal migration: APs reduce out-migration, while MPs increase it. These policies have heterogeneous effects on migration among policy types. Behavioral and cultural MPs at origins lead to a 0.24%-0.68% (95% confidence interval) increase in annual outflows per policy, whereas behavioral and cultural APs at destinations elevate outflows of origins by 0.11%-1.55% (95% confidence interval). Migration patterns are nonlinearly moderated by income, ageing, education, and racial diversity of both origin and destination counties. Ageing rates have the most noticeable U-shaped relationship in shaping migration responses to behavioral and cultural MPs at origins, and inverted U-shapes for institutional MPs at origins and nature-based MPs at destinations. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers on how HPs influence migration as global warming and policy interventions persist. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.10570 |
| By: | Kozo Kiyota (Keio University and RIETI); Theresa M. Greaney (University of Hawaii) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the regional impacts of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake on Japan’s travel services industry. Using triple-differences designs, we find significant, regionally-heterogeneous negative effects, notably a cumulative −54.0 percent inbound visitor loss for the Tohoku region over seven years post-disaster. Although “East Japan†includes disaster-impacted prefectures in both the Tohoku and Kanto regions, the Tohoku region suffered more negative and longer-lasting inbound visitor losses. Early and continued references in foreign media to the “Tohoku Earthquake†seem to have had long-lasting and adverse impacts on Tohoku’s ability to attract foreign visitors. |
| Keywords: | Disaster impacts, Travel services trade, Tourism, Regional impacts |
| JEL: | F14 Q54 R11 Z30 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:202602 |
| By: | Yaxin Pang (Kedge BS - Kedge Business School); Shenle Pan (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres) |
| Abstract: | Logistics and supply chain resilience have become a critical priority in an era of increasing global uncertainty. The Physical Internet (PI) offers a transformative vision for logistics: an open, shared, and interconnected network that inherently promises greater resilience and sustainability. This paper investigates how PI principles can be proactively integrated into multimodal logistics networks to enhance their resilience and environmental performance. We first propose a pragmatic decision-making framework to guide managers through a step-by-step process for logistics network design and enhancement. Building on this framework, we develop two PI-based resilient network redesign strategies. To evaluate these strategies, we formulate the problem using a robust optimization model with a budget of uncertainty, and tailor an ALNS algorithm to solve large-scale, nearreal-world instances. Our computational experiments and sensitivity analyses assess the strategies' effectiveness across various disruption scenarios, different industries, and both onshoring and offshoring typologies of supply chains. The results demonstrate that PI-based strategies can improve network resilience while also contributing to reduced carbon emissions, providing actionable and meaningful insights for practitioners. |
| Keywords: | Budget of Uncertainty, Robust optimization, Physical Internet, Network Design, Resilience, Supply chain, Global Logistics |
| Date: | 2026–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05575065 |
| By: | Guillaume Do Vale (IDRAC Business school Lyon - Institut pour le Développement et la Recherche d'Action Commerciale - Université de Lyon); Isabelle Collin-Lachaud (TSM - Toulouse School of Management Research - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - TSM - Toulouse School of Management - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse); Xavier Lecocq (LUMEN - Lille University Management Lab - ULR 4999 - Université de Lille) |
| Abstract: | The vast and pressing environmental and societal challenges, as well as the difficulty of the path to sustainability, are substantially challenging retailers' business models (BM hereafter). Researchers have yet to answer how retailers cope with different kinds of tensions in their process of BM innovation for sustainability. Drawing on a longitudinal, seven-year, inductive, multiple case study of three European retailers that decided explicitly to move toward sustainability, this research highlights different tensions that confront retailers in this process and the decisions they take to resolve them. Three stages are identified as necessary to implement a BM for sustainability in retailing. In a first stage, patching sustainability initiatives onto traditional BM creates tensions, only some of which can be resolved by middle managers in their day-to-day activities. Others persist and represent paradoxical tensions. In a second stage, formal engagement by owners and senior to change the core of traditional BM can resolve paradoxes, by allowing for strategic actions at the ecosystem level. In the third stage, ecosystem-level actions involve renewing relationships with traditional stakeholders and initiating new relationships with new ones to implement the BM for sustainability. Moreover, a specific feature of BM innovation for sustainability in retailing is that stores can take major roles in the ecosystem, functioning as local hubs for circularity. |
| Keywords: | Multiple case study, Longitudinal, Paradoxical tensions, Ecosystem, Business model, Sustainability, Retailing |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05586045 |
| By: | Benseny, Graciela |
| Abstract: | Este capítulo aborda la innovación turística en Mar del Plata, Argentina, destacando principalmente su importancia para poder mejorar la experiencia del viajero y la competitividad del destino. Se considera la innovación, desde la perspectiva del turismo, como una combinación de productos nuevos, procesos y servicios que responden a cambios económicos y demandas de los viajeros contemporáneos. Se enfatiza la implementación de medidas sostenibles, como el empleo de fuentes de energía renovable, y la administración responsable de aquellos recursos, así como la implementación de tecnologías avanzadas, como la realidad virtual y la inteligencia artificial, que transforman la planificación y ejecución de viajes. Se aplica el concepto de Destino Inteligente, que busca garantizar un Crecimiento sostenible, y el incremento del bienestar de los habitantes locales y turistas, relacionado este tema turístico con el nuevo orden multipolar, al destacar la necesidad de adaptarse a un entorno global que es cambiante y diverso, por lo que los destinos turísticos al final deben competir de manera eficaz. Se aplica un enfoque metodológico cualitativo, y se analizan estrategias y desafíos específicos que enfrenta Mar del Plata, promoviendo la reflexión sobre la aplicación de innovaciones tecnológicas en el turismo. |
| Keywords: | Innovación Tecnológica; Turismo; Sostenibilidad; Mar del Plata; |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4473 |
| By: | Simshauser, P.; Gilmore, J. |
| Abstract: | Electricity prices across Europe, North America and Asia -Pacific surged following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, driven by severe spikes in LNG and coal prices. In Australia, average household electricity tariffs in the National Electricity Market were ~23c/kWh in 2021. By 2025 tariffs had increased by 33% to ~30c/kWh, and provides an interesting case study of predictable policy aftershocks. Australians were told renewables would be cheaper, yet electricity bills had risen sharply. Are renewables cheaper? In this article, we focus on the wholesale market component of retail electricity tariffs in Australia and examine a counterfactual policy scenario – a world where market entrants over the past two decades were constrained to coal- and gas-fired generation, rather than renewables. We compare these results to the NEM’s transitioning plant stock, with ever -rising levels of wind, utility-scale and rooftop solar, along with the emergent firming fleet, viz. batteries, pumped hydro and new entrant gas turbines. Our counterfactual policy scenario would result in wholesale market costs and prices ~30-50% higher. Coal and gas were once unambiguously the NEM’s lowest cost entrants. That period has ended. Structurally high coal plant costs and export -parity gas prices means renewables and firming assets represent the dominant new entrants to meet demand growth, and supply gaps created by aging coal plant exits. |
| Keywords: | Renewables, Coal, Natural Gas, Dispatchable Plant Capacity |
| JEL: | D52 D53 G12 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2025–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2626 |