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on Environmental Economics |
| By: | Yamaguchi, Rintaro; Agarwala, Matthew; Atkinson, Giles |
| Abstract: | Fossil fuels represent a significant portion of the wealth of resource-rich nations – up to 35% (on average) of total national wealth across the Middle East and North Africa, according to the World Bank (2021). But combusting these resources releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, driving costly climate change, ultimately reducing natural capital, productive capacity, and the inclusive wealth of nations. Yet, in most wealth accounting studies, fossil fuel assets are valued in isolation from their broader social costs. This study incorporates the social cost of carbon (SCC) — the present value of the future damage costs resulting from a marginal increase in emissions — into mainstream approaches to valuing fossil fuel stocks. We find that the value of fossil fuel reserves is sensitive to the carbon price, the extraction and decarbonisation pathway, and the discount rate. The results have implications for how fossil fuels should be valued in wealth accounts, how they should be reflected in national statistics, and the future of wealth in fossil-fuel rich economies. |
| Keywords: | genuine savings; natural capital; fossil fuel; inclusive wealth accounting; social cost of carbon; sustainable development |
| JEL: | C43 D63 O47 Q01 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–11–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137102 |
| By: | Galanis, Giorgos; Ricchiuti, Giorgio; Tippet, Ben |
| Abstract: | Responses to climate change differ between countries yet the impact of these differences on the evolution of global climate action has not been analysed to date. This paper addresses two related questions: (i) what is the role of the variation of preferences in the global political economy of climate action; and (ii) what are the necessary conditions for sustained high levels of global action? The authors develop a model to assess countries’ choices at different times to either take action to reduce emissions or not. They find that countries’ choices are influenced by their current level of emissions, total participation in climate action, and other idiosyncratic factors. The heterogeneity between countries is caused by income inequality, differing vulnerability to climate damage, and other political economy factors. The model’s key result is that sustained high levels of global action are achieved only if there is a low degree of heterogeneity in countries’ preferences for action and a strong peer pressure effect to act. |
| Keywords: | climate action; heterogeneous agents; evolutionary dynamics; integrated assessment; global action; political economy |
| JEL: | C62 F50 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137104 |
| By: | Guerini, Mattia; Marin, Giovanni; Vona, Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how monetary policy can shape firm-level carbon emissions and energy efficiency. It also looks at the heterogeneity of these effects by firm size, the underlying transmission channels and interaction with climate policies. The authors draw on administrative and survey data on French manufacturing firms for the period 2000–2019, including emissions, energy use, financial conditions, environmental protection investments and productivity. They examine the effect of credit easing following a variation to interest rate policy made by the European Central Bank in July 2012. They find that financially constrained firms cut emissions by about 9.4% more than unconstrained ones. This effect primarily stems from improvements in energy efficiency, reduced carbon intensity of energy, and general productivity improvements associated with capital deepening that outweighed modest scale effects. The results are driven by small and medium-sized firms. Large firms including those regulated by the EU emissions trading system (ETS) showed no significant response. On average, emissions fell by 3.3% per year, summing up to 5.3 million tonnes of CO2 saved (comparable to the savings from the EU ETS), highlighting the untargeted nature of the policy. |
| Keywords: | carbon intensity; credit; EU ETS; European Central Bank; firms; France; interest rates; manufacturing; SMEs |
| JEL: | Q48 Q52 |
| Date: | 2025–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137115 |
| By: | Nago Zeufack, Minette; Ward, Bob; Pokem, Dany; Rigaud, Kanta Kumari |
| Abstract: | The Congo Basin forests, including the world’s second largest rainforest after the Amazon, cover more than 300 million hectares across 11 countries in Central Africa. They represent the world’s largest land-based carbon sink, and provide a unique and vital biodiversity haven. Development, commercial and demographic pressures have increased considerably in the Congo Basin, particularly since 2010, leading to rising deforestation and degradation in its forests. While recent analysis has suggested that the rate of deforestation has decreased significantly over the past five years, and that it is now less than half, in percentage terms, of that experienced in the Amazon Basin, nearly 10% of the Congo Basin’s forest area was lost between 1990 and 2025. There are also signs that the impacts of climate change are beginning to adversely affect the absorption of carbon dioxide by the Congo Basin forests. Given these threats, this is a critical moment for the forests’ future. This report highlights the gap between the value of the natural capital of the Congo Basin rainforest and the forestry revenues of the countries that cover it. The authors show how destructive and degrading forestry practices in the countries of the Congo Basin currently produce only a fraction of the value of the available natural capital and call for a genuine ‘fair deal’ that would enable the protection of the Congo Basin and the sustainable development of the countries that cover it. |
| Keywords: | climate change; COMIFAC; Congo Basin; Congo Basin Forest Partnership; Congo Basin forests; deforestation; forest degradation; forest protection; sustainable development; Tropical Forest Forever Facility |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–11–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137090 |
| By: | Dugoua, Eugenie; Noailly, Joëlle |
| Abstract: | Reaching net zero emissions by 2050, a goal now endorsed by many countries, requires the rapid and massive deployment of clean energy systems. However, this transition hinges on a new form of dependence. The technologies required to decarbonise depend on a small set of critical minerals like lithium, cobalt and rare earth elements that have highly concentrated supply chains marked by heavy environmental footprints and challenges regarding labour and community rights. This paper presents a simple framework to explore how innovation can strengthen critical mineral supply chains. It examines technological, digital and organisational solutions across the full lifecycle — from mining exploration and processing, to manufacturing, reuse and recycling. The authors examine what drives or hinders innovation, including price volatility, industrial policy, environmental regulation, firm strategies (such as vertical integration), market size and rising demand from competing sectors like AI and defence. They highlight that a portfolio of innovations is essential for reconciling the growing demand for critical minerals with climate, economic and geopolitical priorities. Innovation can reduce the costs of reform, allowing governments to pursue security and sustainability simultaneously. The challenge is not simply to secure more materials but to build a system that is resilient, circular and adaptive. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals; innovation; clean energy transition; supply chain; mining; rare earth elements; batteries; industrial policy; circular economy |
| JEL: | O31 Q55 L72 |
| Date: | 2024–12–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137103 |
| By: | Matilde Banti; Tommaso Luzzati |
| Abstract: | The transition toward sustainability increasingly challenges the cosmetics industry to redesign its products and business models. Solid cosmetics - formulations without water and with minimal packaging - are positioned as eco-innovations that could reduce plastic waste and resource intensity. However, their market penetration remains limited. Existing research on the barriers to their diffusion is scarce and mainly focuses on consumer perspective. This paper first outlines the environmental benefits of solid cosmetics, then reviews the main barriers discussed in the literature. Given the near absence of studies addressing the business perspective, we conducted exploratory interviews to address this gap. Drawing on these interviews, we propose a preliminary interpretative framework to interpret the barriers hindering the diffusion of solid cosmetics and the systemic linkages shaping their market dynamics. The study offers implications for communication strategies and policy interventions supporting a transition toward more sustainable cosmetic practices. |
| Keywords: | Barriers to diffusion, Sustainability transitions, Circular innovations, Plastic waste reduction, Material Efficiency |
| JEL: | Q01 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2026/327 |
| By: | Collins, Stephanie; Lipman, Timoth PhD; Horvath, Arpad PhD |
| Abstract: | The CA-LCA-H2 tool performs a cost and greenhouse gas and criteria air pollutant emissions assessment for a hydrogen project in California by selecting the operating region and mode of production and distribution of the hydrogen through to a fuel cell trucking use case. The cost of clean hydrogen production can change significantly from the choice of production method due to the respective energy and capital costs, and in the case of electrolysis, the electricity source. The regional variations in the electricity mix can significantly affect the carbon intensity of the hydrogen produced. These components then contribute to the potential effectiveness of hydrogen as a low-carbon fuel for the use case assessment. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Life cycle analysis, Hydrogen fuels, Hydrogen production, Trucks, Fuel cell vehicles, Greenhouse gases, Emissions |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt7k9796xb |
| By: | Kuosmanen, Natalia; Kuosmanen, Timo |
| Abstract: | Abstract This brief examines how R&D spillovers are associated with firm-level greenhouse gas emissions in Finnish energy-intensive manufacturing. The results show that R&D spillovers from other firms within the same industry are more strongly associated with lower emissions than the firm’s own R&D activity. This result highlights the role of innovation spillovers and knowledge diffusion in emissions abatement. However, the direction and magnitude of R&D spillovers differ across industries depending on their R&D intensity. In the chemical industry that has high R&D intensity, inter-industry R&D spillovers are associated with lower emissions, whereas in the pulp and paper and basic metals industries, inter-industry R&D spillovers are associated with higher emissions. These results demonstrate that technology spillovers do not automatically lower emissions, but can also contribute to higher emissions. Our findings reveal an important channel of inter-industry R&D spillovers through material flows, highlighting the pivotal role of the chemical industry for the GHG abatement in the pulp and paper production and non-metallic minerals industry. |
| Keywords: | Carbon dioxide emissions, Environmental performance, Green productivity, Sustainability, Technology spillovers |
| JEL: | D24 O33 Q52 Q55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–02–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:175 |
| By: | Kuosmanen, Natalia; Kuosmanen, Timo; Zhou, Xun |
| Abstract: | Abstract A structural shift from fossil fuel-based energy systems to renewable, sustainable energy sources critically depends on research and development (R&D) activities at the firm-level. This study examines the contribution of R&D spillovers from other firms to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Finnish energy-intensive manufacturing industries. We link firm-level GHG emissions to financial and innovation data for 230 firms in the pulp and paper, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, and basic metals industries over 2000–2019. We derive emissions-generating functions based on a directional distance function framework, and estimate them using shape-constrained semiparametric regression. Our key result is that R&D spillovers have a strong statistically significant association with the firm-level GHG emissions. However, the signs and magnitudes of the spillovers differ across industries. In the chemical industry, intra-industry R&D spillover is associated with lower emissions, whereas in the pulp and paper and the basic metals industries, intra-industry R&D spillover is associated with higher emissions. These results demonstrate that R&D spillovers do not self-evidently lower emissions, but can also contribute to higher emissions. Our findings also reveal an important channel of inter-industry R&D spillovers through material flows, highlighting the pivotal role of the chemical industry for the GHG abatement in the pulp and paper production and non-metallic minerals industry. |
| Keywords: | Carbon dioxide emissions, Environmental performance, Green productivity, Sustainability, Technology spillovers |
| JEL: | D24 O33 Q52 Q55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–02–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:136 |
| By: | Fabiano Compagnucci (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Daria Denti (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Alessandra Faggian (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Arsène Perrot (Gran Sasso Science Institute) |
| Abstract: | The green transition unfolds against a backdrop of widening territorial inequalities driven by the spatial concentration of the knowledge economy. While knowledge-intensive regions with educated, affluent populations might be expected to champion environmental causes, this paper reveals a counter-intuitive pattern. Using novel measures of pro- and anti-environmental activism across Italian provinces (2012-2022) and a Bartik-like instrumental variable, we find that knowledge economy concentration reduces pro-environmental activism nearly twice as much as anti-environmental activism. This asymmetry creates a compositional shift where knowledge-intensive areas exhibit relatively more anti-environmental sentiment in their remaining activism. The findings challenge simplified assumptions about education, affluence, and environmental support, revealing that territorial economic structures fundamentally alter engagement patterns. Green transition policies must account for how different economic contexts generate distinct mobilization patterns, addressing both the reduced collective action in knowledge hubs and resistance in vulnerable territories. |
| Keywords: | green transition, climate crisis, local resentment, knowledge economy, activism, polarisation, local vulnerability |
| JEL: | R11 R12 Q54 Q58 D74 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp75 |
| By: | Shubhro Bhattacharya; Sara M. Constantino; Nirajana Mishra; Nishith Prakash; Shwetlena Sabarwal; Dighbijoy Samaddar; Raisa Sherif |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates whether environmental education can shift household behavior through intergenerational transmission of knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes. We implement an activity-based program in Patna, India, and conduct a randomized experiment with 1, 545 child–parent pairs assigned to child-only, parent-only, joint, or control groups. Direct participation increases pro-environmental behaviors. Spillovers occur but are asymmetric: while children and parents influence each other’s behaviors, only children significantly shift parents’ climate beliefs and attitudes. Joint participation yields no additional gains beyond individual participation, suggesting that targeting children alone may be a scalable and cost-effective strategy for promoting sustainable household practices. |
| Keywords: | environmental education, Intra-household spillovers, Intergenerational transmission, pro-environmental behavior, climate risk perceptions, factorial randomized design, India |
| JEL: | D10 I20 C93 Q01 Q53 O10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12499 |
| By: | Felix Meier; Martin Quaas; Wilfried Rickels; Christian P. Traeger; Christian Träger |
| Abstract: | Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is considered essential for climate change mitigation, yet its optimal role in climate policy remains unclear in the presence of non-permanent storage, energy constraints, and fossil fuel scarcity. We integrate CDR into an analytic integrated assessment model to derive general conditions for socially optimal CDR deployment. Within a linear carbon cycle model, we consider different CDR pathways, including direct air carbon capture, ocean alkalinity enhancement, and ocean iron fertilization. Introducing CDR does not significantly alter the optimal carbon price and the incentive to reduce emissions. The impact of CDR on gross emissions mainly stems from the energy required to operate it. This impact, as well as the optimal deployment of CDR, depends on fossil fuel scarcity and the pace of renewable energy deployment. In high-damage scenarios, the optimal deployment of CDR occurs before and around the year 2100, consistent with temperature overshoot pathways. |
| Keywords: | carbon dioxide removal, climate change, integrated assessment, social cost of carbon, optimal carbon tax |
| JEL: | Q54 Q52 C61 D61 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12501 |
| By: | Lucas Bretschger |
| Abstract: | The study examines economic growth and climate change when system competition between countries causes drastic changes in their climate policies. The world is divided into two groups of countries: one that implements strict climate policies and another that refrains from doing so due to concerns about the negative economic impacts. A policy tipping point occurs once the economic performance of the proactive group surpasses that of the laggards, prompting the latter to implement comparable climate measures. I find that the impact of policy tipping is significant on emissions but moderate on economic growth. The occurrence of the policy shift depends on policy design and technological progress. In a divided world, subsidies for clean energy research prove more effective than carbon pricing in accelerating global decarbonization because they induce earlier tipping. Achieving the internationally agreed climate targets requires that proactive countries combine ambitious emissions reductions with sustained economic prosperity, an outcome attainable through an efficient mix of taxes and subsidies. |
| Keywords: | carbon policy, divided world, economic growth, global carbon emissions, policy tipping |
| JEL: | Q43 O47 Q56 O41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12438 |
| By: | Ottmar Edenhofer; Max Franks |
| Abstract: | We develop a unified cost-benefit framework that allows for a better understanding of nature conservation and climate policies under risk and uncertainty. We derive modified Hotelling rules from a social planner’s welfare optimization. They reveal four forces that jointly determine market design for climate and nature conservation: First, discounted marginal climate damages enter the social cost of carbon (SCC) and marginal ecosystem services the social value of nature (SVN). Second, climate and nature are coupled, which raises both prices: degradation of ecosystems increases the SCC, while climate damages raise the SVN. Third, a climate-nature beta quantifies additional hedging components of policies against fat tails, when we consider a stochastic setting with exogenous random shocks. The climate-nature beta summarizes the option values for abatement, adaptation, ecosystem restoration and carbon dioxide removal. Fourth, Markov markups quantify tipping risks, which we capture by extending the model to a constrained Markov decision process with state-contingent transition probabilities. Thereby, we endogenize tipping points: the likelihood of moving into a high-damage regime becomes a function of the atmospheric carbon stock and natural capital, which depend on policy choices. Thus, hazard risks are a policy-sensitive component of the system’s dynamics. The model yields state-contingent asset-pricing formulas for carbon prices, restoration subsidies, land charges, and capacity payments. We propose institutions at the level of the European Union that could implement Pigouvian taxes and subsides as well as new types of SCC- and SVN-indexed bonds to share non-diversifiable risks arising from Earth's changing climate and the degradation of its biosphere. |
| Keywords: | CDR, natural capital, biodiversity, sustainability, asset pricing, welfare economics, tipping points, option values |
| JEL: | Q51 Q54 Q57 D81 G12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12426 |
| By: | Michelle Hanlon; Saumitra Jha; Namrata Kala; Nemit Shroff; Chagai M. Weiss |
| Abstract: | Despite the large common net benefits of climate mitigation, broad-based political consensus for large-scale policy action remains elusive. We hypothesize that financial exposure to energy stocks central to the green transition can induce learning and greater support for climate mitigation policies. We conduct a RCT which randomizes both the presence of financial market exposure to the energy sector, as well as which type of portfolio—fossil-fuel (brown) or renewable energy (green)—is given to an individual. Treatment increases support for mitigation action and intent to undertake adaptation, with positive support caused by ownership of both green and brown assets. The effects are particularly pronounced among individuals who are initially more climate-skeptic, and persist eight months after treatment. We present evidence consistent with learning as the primary mechanism: treated respondents are more likely to consume financial news and become more financially knowledgeable, less likely to obtain news from polarized sources, and better able to accurately predict the environmental impacts of green and brown firms. |
| JEL: | G11 O13 O16 P18 Q49 Q50 Q52 Q53 Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34828 |
| By: | Federica Lanterna (Department of Economics, Society and Politics, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy); Giovanni Marin (Department of Economics, Society and Politics, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy; SEEDS Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies, Italy; FEEM Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Italy); Agnese Sacchi (Department of Economics, Society and Politics, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Italy; IDEAGOV, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Environmental challenges increasingly shape political discourses across Europe, yet their influence on actual environmental governance remains unclear. This paper examines the political economy mechanisms linking environmental change, party platforms, and the decentralisation of environmental protection expenditure in 27 EU member states from 2002 to 2022. We distinguish between political signalling - the commitments parties make in electoral manifestos - and policy implementation, measured through actual decentralised environmental spending. Our results reveal a sharp asymmetry: while extreme events substantially increase the salience of environmental protection in party platforms, they do not translate into changes in the territorial allocation of environmental expenditure. Instead, decentralisation responds primarily to long-term structural conditions, such as the relative weight of locally versus globally relevant emissions. Political orientations of governing coalitions, whether on environmental issues or decentralisation, show no systematic association with spending outcomes. Taken together, these findings highlight a persistent gap between electoral incentives and policy implementation in multilevel environmental governance, consistent with public-choice theories emphasising institutional inertia and limited political responsiveness beyond the stage of platform competition. |
| Keywords: | Decentralisation; environmental protection; natural disasters; political announcements; voters preferences |
| JEL: | H70 H72 H77 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:0526 |
| By: | Luzie Dallinger; Reo Van Eynde; Jefim Vogel; Lorenzo Di Domenico; Se\'an Fearon; Tina Beigi; C\'edric Crofils; Kevin J. Dillman; Daniel W. O'Neill |
| Abstract: | Given the challenge of achieving societal welfare in an environmentally sustainable way, the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW) has emerged as an alternative indicator of progress in response to critiques of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The ISEW compares the benefits of economic activity with its social and environmental costs. So far, most studies empirically analyse the ISEW for past developments, while no studies have simulated the ISEW using a dynamic macroeconomic model. We address this important gap by incorporating the ISEW into COMPASS, an ecological macroeconomic model that features the Doughnut of biophysical boundaries and social thresholds. First, we analyse how the ISEW is affected by three social and environmental policies: a carbon tax, income redistribution, and working-time reduction. We find that the ISEW grows in all scenarios. The strongest improvement over business-as-usual arises when all policies are combined, while the individual policies mostly affect the ISEW positively. Only in the case of working-time reduction, the ISEW decreases. Our study underscores the benefit of dynamically modelling the ISEW for anticipating the net effect of multiple impulses and their interconnections on the indicator. Second, we explore how the ISEW compares to GDP and the Doughnut when evaluating social and environmental policies. Our results suggest that the ISEW is better than GDP at capturing their effects, but it omits the full environmental costs of growth. We argue that the Doughnut, with its comprehensive picture of biophysical boundaries and social thresholds, provides better guidance for policymakers striving for sustainable wellbeing. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.21971 |
| By: | Yosr Ammar (UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon, MAGELLAN - Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon, IFGE - Institut Français de Gouvernement des Entreprises - EM - EMLyon Business School); Julien Cloarec (MAGELLAN - Laboratoire de Recherche Magellan - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon, UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon, Iaelyon - Iaelyon School of Management - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon); Bertrand Valiorgue (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020], EM - EMLyon Business School) |
| Abstract: | As technological advancements, artificial intelligence (AI), and climate change become increasingly intertwined, energy efficiency has emerged as a crucial issue for organizations and public authorities. This research examines how firms can align financial and environmental goals to attract diverse investor groups, focusing on AI-driven energy efficiency strategies. To do so, we use the Economies of Worth framework and explore how investors respond to energy strategies framed by financial or environmental motivations (i.e., market or green worlds), depending on the type of AI adopted and the nature of compliance. Across four experimental studies with 1, 500 investors, we find that environmental motivations can reduce investor willingness to invest, mediated by perceived energy efficiency. However, AI implementation and certification mechanisms act as critical boundary conditions that can legitimize environmental strategies and enable compromise between market and green logics. Specifically, coupling environmental motivations with AI for energy efficiency and third-party certification leads to higher investor willingness to invest. This study contributes to sustainable investment research by highlighting the critical role of AI and compliance in building hybrid justifications that can facilitate alignment between environmental and financial priorities in investor decision-making. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05470461 |
| By: | Moreaux, Michel; Amigues, Jean-Pierre; Nguyen, Manh-Hung |
| Abstract: | Optimal energy transitions are characterized in an economy where fossil energy requires dedicated conversion capital that is costly to reverse and where cumulative emissions are capped by an exogenous carbon budget. Short-run complementarity between fossil inputs and sector-specific capital interacts with intertemporal scarcity of the remaining budget. The optimal path typically selects an expansion regime, a production plateau, a decline regime, and a post-fossil steady state. The plateau is pinned down by the need to operate in order to amortize sunk conversion capital while the shadow value of remaining emissions rises over time. These forces generate non-monotone useful-energy prices and deliver sharp conditions under which dedicated fossil capital becomes stranded. |
| Keywords: | Carbon constraint; Nonrenewable resources; Renewable resources; Energy transition; Hotelling rule |
| JEL: | E22 Q00 Q32 Q43 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:131485 |
| By: | Eugenie Dugoua; Joelle Noailly |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the patterns and mechanisms of global clean technology diffusion over the last two decades. We document four stylized facts: uneven sectoral progress favoring power and light transport; China’s dominance in innovation and manufacturing; the role of modularity in driving cost declines; and limited adoption in developing economies. Through case studies of solar, electric vehicles, and hydrogen, we analyze how policy and infrastructure enable scale. Finally, we assess emerging challenges for the next phase of diffusion, including critical mineral constraints, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical fragmentation. |
| Keywords: | Clean technology diffusion, Climate change mitigation, Renewable energy, Industrial policy, Solar photovoltaics, Electric vehicles, Hydrogen |
| JEL: | O33 Q55 O25 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wip:wpaper:95 |
| By: | Cohen, François (The Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford); Sarmiento, Luis (CMCC – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change); Stuka, Yannik (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | Most economic studies of environmental disasters focus on event occurrence, typically using difference-in-differences methods. However, intensity is often the more relevant margin. We study hurricanes, whose intensity is projected to increase with climate change while changes in frequency remain uncertain. We exploit spatial asymmetries in storm dynamics to causally identify how damages vary with intensity. In the Northern Hemisphere, translational and rotational winds reinforce each other on the right side of storms, creating a natural fuzzy discontinuity. In addition, short-run fluctuations in the position of the Bermuda High, a large high-pressure system over the Atlantic, influence hurricane trajectories near the U.S. coast, generating quasi-random variation in regional exposure. In this preliminary draft, we show how these physical mechanisms can be used to identify exogenous variation in hurricane intensity at the local level, laying the groundwork for estimating how damages scale with intensity in future iterations of this working paper. |
| Keywords: | Hurricanes; Intensity; Asymmetry; Convexity; Damages; United States |
| JEL: | Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-06 |
| By: | Kirschenmann, Karolin; Koch, Felicitas; von Schickfus, Marie-Theres; Hainz, Christa |
| Abstract: | We study how mandatory climate-related disclosure affects bank lending using the phased introduction of the EU Taxonomy Regulation. Exploiting the staggered development and implementation of the regulation, we distinguish banks' responses to anticipated disclosure requirements from their responses to realized firm-level sustainability information. Using syndicated loan data from 2016 to 2025 and a loan-level difference-in-differences design, we show that banks adjust lending to regulated firms with greater Taxonomy-eligible exposure following the 2019 announcement, reallocating credit toward similarly exposed non-regulated firms. Once firms report alignment, higher alignment is associated with larger loan volumes. We further show that banks adjust contractual terms to manage transition risk. |
| Keywords: | Green Finance, Climate Regulation, Sustainability Disclosure, Bank Lending |
| JEL: | G18 G21 G32 E43 Q51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:336770 |
| By: | Rosello, Giulia; Reatini, Maria Antonietta; Pinto, Gabriele; Cattani, Giorgio |
| Abstract: | Air pollution is a major externality whose consequences extend beyond health and productivity. This paper shows that short-run pollution shocks also reduce democratic participation. We combine official, municipality-level election results from 32 national, European, regional, and municipal elections in Italy (2013-2022) with newly assembled daily measures of PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 for all Italian municipalities. Our identification strategy exploits quasi-random election-day deviations in local pollution relative to recent conditions, and we corroborate the results using wind speed as an instrument for particulate matter. Higher pollution on election day substantially depresses turnout: a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 (roughly doubling typical exposure) lowers participation by 2-3 percentage points, corresponding to about one million fewer votes. The estimates are similar for PM10 and NO2, and when pollution exceeds WHO guideline thresholds. Using post-election survey data from the 2013, 2018, and 2022 national elections coupled with survey-date exposure, we find consistent individual-level declines in reported voting intentions, with larger effects among citizens who report higher political interest. These findings identify the political-economy cost of air pollution, which not only reduces turnout but distorts the democratic representation by altering who turns out, not just how many. Our results suggest that environmental regulation can strengthen the democratic process by improving political participation and representation, in addition to its health and welfare benefits. |
| Keywords: | Air Pollution, Turnout, Environmental Effects, Political Participation |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 D72 D91 O44 |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2026004 |
| By: | Rachel Bonnifield (Center for Global Development); Caroline Mallory (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Access to electricity is a cornerstone of sustainable development, and a basic prerequisite for modern agriculture and industry. Despite significant recent progress, 677 million people still lacked access to electricity in 2023, of which an estimated 87 percent live in sub-Saharan Africa, and most live in low-density rural, remote, or conflict-affected areas without functional electrical grids. In these contexts, rapid electrification—a political and development imperative, and current focus of the World Bank-led Mission 300 initiative—relies heavily on off-grid solar systems, which are favored for their quick and flexible deployment, zero recurrent costs, and low-carbon footprint. Most off-grid solar systems in sub-Saharan Africa use lead-acid batteries for energy storage, which can create severe risks of environmental lead pollution and human lead exposure in the absence of safe disposal and recycling. Unsafe used lead-acid battery (ULAB) recycling is thought to be one of several important sources driving high rates of lead poisoning in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper investigates the role of lead in off-grid electrification across sub-Saharan Africa, including trends in off-grid technologies; the health and safety risks associated with ULAB recycling within sub-Saharan Africa; and a deep-dive market analysis of the off-grid solar sector. While there is high uncertainty, we estimate that the off-grid solar sector generates between 250, 000 and 1.5 million tonnes of ULAB waste per year, accounting for 13 to 47 percent of total ULAB waste volumes in the region. We conclude with a discussion of findings and actionable recommendations to improve collection and recycling practices within sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:383 |
| By: | Benjamin Krebs; Matthew J. Neidell |
| Abstract: | We study how private information affects household responses to environmental risk. Using data from residential air quality monitors, we exploit the timing of monitor installation and high-frequency fine particulate matter (PM2.5) readings to identify responses to new information about indoor pollution risk. We find that indoor PM2.5 concentrations decline by 2.5 ug/m3 over the 12 weeks following installation, conditional on contemporaneous outdoor pollution, with effects significantly larger among households with high initial indoor pollution. The indoor–outdoor pollution gradient declines over time, indicating that households become increasingly effective at mitigating exposure when marginal health damages are highest. Using machine learning techniques to infer cooking activity and air purifier adoption, we show that households respond primarily through durable defensive investments rather than reductions in pollution-generating behavior, with back-of-the-envelope calculations implying positive net benefits. Our results suggest that personalized risk information increases the salience of indoor pollution as a controllable risk for households, in contrast to spatially coarse public information that frames pollution primarily as an outdoor threat requiring avoidance. |
| JEL: | D81 D83 Q53 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34875 |
| By: | Alice Guittard (ICRE8); Isabelle La Jeunesse; Ebun Akinsete (ICRE8); Maria Tziva; Ana Lorena Barrueto Munoz; Alicia Blanchi-Sic; Alexandra Spyropoulou; Phoebe Koundouri |
| Abstract: | Climate change impacts in Europe are accelerating, creating urgent adaptation needs across diverse local contexts. This paper presents the implementation of a Systems Innovation Approach (SIA) through living labs to co-design climate resilience strategies in nine European case studies. SIA provides a structured, participatory framework for systemic change through a stepwise approach enabling the development of tailor-made sustainability strategies by co-designing a portfolio of short, mid, and long-term innovative solutions. Living labs can successfully support open innovation ecosystems by enabling knowledge exchange, trust-building, and co-creation of tailored innovation pathways for adaptation. Results demonstrate that through the SIA, living lab can enhance stakeholder networks and capacity building, co-create knowledge and mutual understanding across a diversity of stakeholders while fostering actionable strategies. However, challenges remain regarding sustaining living labs beyond project funding, maintaining engagement, and bridging planning-to-implementation gaps. The paper concludes with recommendations for institutionalizing living labs within governance frameworks to accelerate Europe's transition toward climate resilience. |
| Keywords: | Living Lab, System Innovation Approach, Climate Change Adaptation, Stakeholder Engagement, System Thinking |
| Date: | 2026–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2605 |
| By: | Christoph Böhringer; Knut Einar Rosendahl |
| Abstract: | Carbon leakage is a major concern in the design of unilateral climate policies aimed at reducing global emissions in a cost-effective manner. In order to assess the cost-effectiveness of anti-leakage measures, it is crucial to understand the fundamental mechanisms that contribute to leakage. We provide theoretical analysis of the two main channels of leakage: the fossil fuel market channel and the competitiveness channel. We show that the two channels reinforce each other. Furthermore, we find that whereas leakage via the fossil fuel market channel decreases with the fuel supply elasticity and increases with the fuel demand elasticity, the opposite is the case for the competitiveness channel. We show that the effectiveness of output-based allocation and border carbon adjustments to combat carbon leakage increases with the fuel supply elasticity and decreases with the fuel demand elasticity. We supplement the simplified theoretical analysis with numerical simulations using a more complex multi-sector, multi-region computable general equilibrium model of the global economy to quantify the implications of unilateral climate policy designs for the European Union. We find that leakage via the fossil fuel channel dominates leakage via the competitiveness channel unless fuel supply elasticities are quite high and fuel demand elasticities are quite low. Furthermore, we find that the lower the fossil fuel demand elasticity, the greater the gains in cost-effectiveness from implementing anti-leakage measures. |
| Keywords: | carbon leakage, fossil fuel elasticities, output-based allocation, border carbon adjustments |
| JEL: | D58 F18 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12437 |
| By: | Leocata, Marta; Livieri, Giulia; Morlacchi, Silvia; Corvino, Fausto; Flandoli, Franco; Pirni, Alberto Eugenio Ermenegildo |
| Abstract: | Household adoption of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems is central to the green energy transition, yet diffusion depends on social influence and behavioral biases, as well as payback economics. This study develops a parsimonious Markovian model in which households move sequentially from being unengaged (“Carbon”) to informed, to planning, and finally to adoption (“Green”). Transition rates are micro-founded by two mechanisms: (i) social contagion/communication, proxied by the current share of adopters, and (ii) economic profitability, proxied by payback time computed from a Net Present Value framework. Novel to this diffusion setting, bounded rationality is introduced via hyperbolic discounting, creating a procrastination loop that delays adoption even when PV is economically attractive in a long-run perspective. Calibrated on the Italian residential PV diffusion path (2006–2020) and assessed in national and regional applications, the model reproduces observed trajectories and enables forward-looking scenario analysis (2020–2026). Results show that policies yielding similar payback improvements can produce different outcomes once present bias is accounted for and that behaviorally informed intervention are stronger. The findings contribute a micro-to-macro bridge between behavioral economics and technology diffusion modeling and imply that effective policy portfolios (and PV business models) should complement incentives with commitment devices and social-norm peer strategies to accelerate PV uptake and its spillover emissions benefits. |
| Keywords: | green energy transition; solar photovoltaic; individual based modeling; ethics and mathematics; procrastination; Markovian model |
| JEL: | Q42 Q55 D91 C61 |
| Date: | 2026–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:136956 |
| By: | Serigne Moussa Dia (UADB - Université Alioune Diop de Bambey) |
| Abstract: | Abstract This article examines the transmission of climate policies to bank credit allocation in the WAEMU region between 2015 and 2024. The methodology employs a bank-country-quarter fixed effects panel model applied to a sample of 40 banks (n = 1, 560 observations), adapting the approach of Covi et al. (2025). The empirical results reveal an almost non-existent transmission channel: the coefficient associated with the CCPI index is weak and statistically insignificant (β = 0.04; p > 0.10) for green exposures (TAC), as well as for carbon-intensive sectors (β = −0.02; p > 0.10). In contrast, inflation emerges as the main determinant: a one-point increase in the inflation rate leads to an estimated +3.5% reallocation toward more resilient sectors (β = 0.0014; p < 0.05), indicating macroeconomic dominance over climate signals. The findings highlight a substantial gap in the integration of climate risk within WAEMU banking practices. The average share of "green" loans remains below 2% of total portfolios, while exposure to vulnerable sectors still exceeds 28%. The study calls for strengthening the BCEAO's prudential framework: mandatory climate stress tests, standardized disclosure requirements, and targeted regulatory incentives. Keywords: Climate policies; Bank allocation; WAEMU; Transition risk; Green finance; Macroeconomic dominance. JEL Classification: G21, Q54, E58, O55 Paper type: Empirical research article |
| Abstract: | Résumé Cet article analyse la transmission des politiques climatiques à l'allocation du crédit bancaire dans la zone UEMOA entre 2015 et 2024. La méthodologie repose sur un modèle de panel à effets fixes banque-pays-trimestre appliqué à un échantillon de 40 banques (n = 1 560 observations), en adaptant l'approche de Covi et al. (2025). Les résultats révèlent une transmission quasi inexistante des politiques climatiques : le coefficient associé à l'indice CCPI est faible et non significatif (β = 0, 04 ; p > 0, 10) pour les expositions vertes (TAC), de même que pour les secteurs carbonés (β = −0, 02 ; p > 0, 10). En revanche, l'inflation constitue le principal déterminant de l'allocation : une hausse de 1 point du taux d'inflation entraîne un rééquilibrage d'environ +3, 5 % vers les secteurs résilients (β = 0, 0014 ; p < 0, 05), traduisant une dominance des facteurs macroéconomiques sur les signaux climatiques. Ces résultats soulignent un déficit majeur d'intégration du risque climatique dans les comportements bancaires de l'UEMOA. Le ratio moyen de prêts « verts » reste inférieur à 2 % du portefeuille total, et l'exposition aux secteurs vulnérables représente encore plus de 28 % des encours. L'étude appelle à un renforcement du cadre prudentiel de la BCEAO : stress tests climatiques obligatoires, divulgation standardisée et incitations réglementaires ciblées. Mots-clés : Politiques climatiques ; Allocation bancaire ; UEMOA ; Risque de transition ; Finance verte ; Dominance macroéconomique. Classification JEL : G21, Q54, E58, O55 Type de papier : Article de recherche empirique Abstract This article examines the transmission of climate policies to bank credit allocation in the WAEMU region between 2015 and 2024. The methodology employs a bank-country-quarter fixed effects panel model applied to a sample of 40 banks (n = 1, 560 observations), adapting the approach of Covi et al. (2025). The empirical results reveal an almost non-existent transmission channel: the coefficient associated with the CCPI index is weak and statistically insignificant (β = 0.04; p > 0.10) for green exposures (TAC), as well as for carbon-intensive sectors (β = −0.02; p > 0.10). In contrast, inflation emerges as the main determinant: a one-point increase in the inflation rate leads to an estimated +3.5% reallocation toward more resilient sectors (β = 0.0014; p < 0.05), indicating macroeconomic dominance over climate signals. The findings highlight a substantial gap in the integration of climate risk within WAEMU banking practices. The average share of "green" loans remains below 2% of total portfolios, while exposure to vulnerable sectors still exceeds 28%. The study calls for strengthening the BCEAO's prudential framework: mandatory climate stress tests, standardized disclosure requirements, and targeted regulatory incentives. Keywords: Climate policies; Bank allocation; WAEMU; Transition risk; Green finance; Macroeconomic dominance. JEL Classification: G21, Q54, E58, O55 Paper type: Empirical research article |
| Keywords: | Bank allocation, Macroeconomic dominance. JEL Classification: G21, Green finance, Transition risk, WAEMU, Politiques climatiques Allocation bancaire UEMOA Risque de transition Finance verte Dominance macroéconomique. Classification JEL : G21, O55 Climate policies, Dominance macroéconomique. Classification JEL : G21, Finance verte, Risque de transition, UEMOA, Allocation bancaire, Politiques climatiques, O55 Paper type: Empirical research, O55 Climate policies Bank allocation WAEMU Transition risk Green finance Macroeconomic dominance. JEL Classification: G21, E58, Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05420001 |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; João Tovar Jalles; Sofia Monteiro |
| Abstract: | Climate change is reshaping sovereign risk and macroeconomic stability by amplifying fiscal and external fragilities. This paper develops a unified framework to assess how climate vulnerability and resilience jointly influence fiscal–external solvency. We construct a market-based sustainability index that integrates time-varying fiscal and external reaction coefficients – estimated using Schlicht’s (2021) method-weighted by sovereign yields. Using a global panel of more than 60 economies (1981–2024), we document four key findings. First, structural vulnerability exerts a large and persistent drag on sustainability, even after controlling for macro fundamentals, as higher exposure magnifies expected losses and tightens financing conditions. Second, resilience does not display a strong unconditional effect but significantly mitigates the adverse impact of vulnerability, acting as a state-contingent stabilizer. Third, local projections with smooth transition (LP-STAR) reveal sharp nonlinearities: identical climate shocks trigger modest, short-lived effects in low-vulnerability or high-resilience regimes but cause deep and persistent deterioration when vulnerability is high and resilience weak. Fourth, these dynamics generate an “adaptation trap” – a self-reinforcing cycle where vulnerability raises yields, yields compress fiscal space, and limited adaptation perpetuates vulnerability. Policy implications are clear: resilience investment yields sizable macro-financial returns by reducing expected losses and compressing climate risk premia, while delaying adaptation risks entrenching fragility. Our results highlight the need to embed climate parameters into debt sustainability analyses and sovereign risk frameworks, particularly for emerging markets facing tighter financing constraints. |
| Keywords: | climate vulnerability, climate resilience, fiscal sustainability, external sustainability, sovereign risk premia |
| JEL: | C33 E62 F34 H63 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12389 |
| By: | Nauro Campos; Flavia Ginefra; Angelo Martelli; Alessio Terzi; Nauro F. Campos |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews research across economics, political economy, political science, and public policy to investigate how institutions shape the adoption, implementation, and durability of climate policies. We examine how formal institutions (i) coordinate implementation capacity, (ii) anchor long-term commitments, and (iii) mediate distributional conflict. We also discuss how informal institutions, such as social norms and trust, further condition whether formal mechanisms translate into durable action. We distinguish quasi-experimental evidence from correlational and case-based findings, identifying where economic methods could further sharpen evidence, and conclude with a research agenda focused on institutional interdependencies and the conditions under which institutions can facilitate the adoption of effective and irreversible climate policies. |
| Keywords: | climate change, institutions, political economy, climate governance |
| JEL: | D72 H11 P48 O43 O44 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12490 |
| By: | Chung, Vincent |
| Abstract: | Given the Amazon Rainforest’s ecological importance, accurately valuing its conservation benefits is critical for informed policy decisions. This study compares the efficacy of using immersive virtual reality (VR) and high-quality video presentations to elicit ‘willingness to pay’ (WTP) for conservation activities in the Amazon Rainforest. It examines whether VR elicits valuations of conservation benefits that are sensitive to the scope or scale of conservation (‘scope-sensitive valuations’), and whether any benefits justify its higher cost. It also explores variations within responses to VR to identify experiential factors, such as feeling present in the environment or feeling physically uncomfortable, that moderate scope sensitivity. The study finds that high-quality video presentations generate scope-sensitive willingness to pay (WTP) for Amazon Rainforest conservation as effectively as immersive VR, while offering greater accessibility and lower cost than VR. |
| Keywords: | virtual reality; stated preference; contingent valuation; scope sensitivity |
| JEL: | Q51 Q57 C91 |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137101 |
| By: | Gautami Parate (Madras School of Economics, Gandhi Mandapam Road, Behind Government Data Centre, Kotturpuram, Chennai, 600025, India.); Arpita Choudhary ((Corresponding author), Madras School of Economics, Gandhi Mandapam Road, Behind Government Data Centre, Kotturpuram, Chennai, 600025) |
| Abstract: | Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) considerations have become integral to corporate strategy, investor decision-making, and regulatory oversight. ESG violations—such as environmental harm, governance failures, and social misconduct—pose substantial reputational, financial, and legal risks. This study develops a machine learning-based framework for the early detection of ESG policy violations using the World Benchmarking Alliance’s Nature Benchmark dataset (2022–2024), covering 816 firms across more than 20 industries. To address the pronounced class imbalance inherent in ESG violation data, the Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) is applied. Three classification models—Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, and Random Forest—are evaluated. The Random Forest model demonstrates the most robust performance, achieving a superior balance between accuracy and recall. Model interpretability is ensured through feature importance measures and SHAP values, which identify key ESG dimensions and industry-specific drivers associated with violations. Overall, the findings highlight the effectiveness of combining ensemble learning, resampling techniques, and explainable machine learning to support scalable and proactive ESG risk assessment. |
| Keywords: | ESG, ESG violations, sustainability analytics, machine learning, Random Forest, SMOTE, SHAP |
| JEL: | C38 C45 G17 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2026-293 |
| By: | Janssen, Bennet; Zhang, Youpeng |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal impact of ESG ratings and their divergence on retail investors' sustainable investment decisions. Using a survey with a framed choice experiment conducted with 2, 025 German retail investors, we document three key findings: (i) While about two in three investors claim they own sustainable equity funds, merely six percent actively incorporate ESG ratings into their own portfolio decisions; (ii) the sustainable investment is associated with the respondents' beliefs, motivations, and expectations; (iii) higher average ESG ratings increase investment in sustainable funds, but rating divergence reduces such allocations. We formally show that the results are consistent with an ESG portfolio choice model in which ESG rating divergence acts as noisy signals of sustainability and investors differ in their responsiveness based on rating credibility, sustainability preferences, and risk-return expectations. We provide further robust evidence that, while ESG rating divergence has a weaker effect on committed ESG investors, it significantly reduces the likelihood of sustainable investments among retail investors with lower exposure to green assets. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable Finance, Portfolio Choices, ESG Ratings, Uncertainty, Investment Decisions |
| JEL: | G11 D14 G24 G41 G51 D83 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:336764 |
| By: | Barigou, Karim (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium); Patten, Melanie; Zhou, Kenneth Q. |
| Abstract: | Climate change poses increasing challenges for mortality modeling and underscores the need to integrate climate-related variables into mortality forecasting. This study introduces a two-step approach that incorporates climate information from the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) into mortality models. In the first step, we model region-specific seasonal mortality dynamics using the Lee-Carter model with SARIMA processes, a cosine-sine decomposition, and a cyclic spline-based function. In the second step, residual deviations from the baseline model are explained by ACI components using Generalized Linear Models, Generalized Additive Models, and Extreme Gradient Boosting. To further capture the dependence between mortality and climate, we develop a SARIMA-Copula forecasting approach linking mortality period effects with temperature extremes. Our results show that incorporating ACI components systematically enhances out-of-sample accuracy, underscoring the value of integrating climate-related variables into stochastic mortality modeling. The proposed framework offers actuaries and policymakers a practical tool for anticipating and managing climate-related mortality risks. |
| Keywords: | Mortality modeling ; Climate risk ; Actuaries Climate Index ; Copula ; Machine learning |
| Date: | 2025–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiz:louvad:2025017 |
| By: | Rabah Arezki; Hieu Nguyen |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between (internal) armed conflict and sustainable development. Using annual panel data on 192 countries from 2000 to 2024, we employ a variety of econometric techniques to trace the impulse responses between conflict fatalities and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) performance in both directions. Results reveal a striking asymmetry: conflict shocks produce long-lasting adverse effects on SDG performance, while SDG performance shocks exert only transient effects on conflict intensity. This asymmetry persists across external and major conflict episodes, and is robust to alternative identification strategies. Our findings indicate that sustainable development is fundamentally contingent on prior achievement of peace. |
| Keywords: | conflict, development, sustainability, persistence |
| JEL: | O10 O43 D74 C33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12458 |
| By: | Matthew T. Cole; James Lake; Benjamin Zissimos |
| Abstract: | International environmental agreements (IEAs) often condition entry into force on ratification by a minimum number of countries, yet deep environmental commitments frequently face strong domestic political resistance. We study how IEA breadth, through minimum ratification thresholds (MRTs), and depth are jointly determined when domestic ratification incentives are endogenous. In our model, lobbying competition between pro- and anti-environmental interest groups shape domestic ratification outcomes, and lobbying incentives depend on expectations about ratification in other countries. MRTs affect domestic political incentives by altering the pivotality of a country’s ratification for entry into force and the extent to which global emissions externalities are internalized. As a result, deeper agreements optimally feature lower MRTs: governments relax breadth requirements to offset endogenous domestic political resistance to more ambitious environmental commitments. Our analysis provides a political-economy foundation for the breadth–depth trade-off and offers a novel perspective on free riding that operates through domestic political effort rather than participation or enforcement mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | international environmental agreements, minimum ratification threshold, contest, ratification, lobbying, domestic political economy, breadth–depth trade-off, free riding |
| JEL: | Q54 H41 D72 F53 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12489 |
| By: | Abeeb Olaniran (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Xin Sheng (Lord Ashcroft International Business School, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, United Kingdom.); Oguzhan Cepni (Ostim Technical University, Ankara, Turkiye; University of Edinburgh Business School, Centre for Business, Climate Change, and Sustainability; Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Climate-related risks have become an increasingly important source of market disruption, with potential implications for credit markets. As such, this study examines whether and how climate risks influence credit risk, as measured by credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Using a U.S. state-level climate risk measure and a local projections framework, we analyze both linear and asymmetric effects of climate shocks on CDS spreads. The linear results provide strong evidence that climate shocks exert a positive and statistically significant impact on credit risk, with findings robust across multiple CDS tenors. Within a nonlinear framework, where climate risk serves as a regime-switching variable, we uncover asymmetric responses of CDS spreads across different maturities and term structures. Overall, the findings offer valuable insights for market participants, including investors and financial institutions. |
| Keywords: | Climate Shocks, Credit Risk, Credit Default Swaps, Linear and Non-Linear Panel Frameworks |
| JEL: | C23 C33 G32 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202604 |
| By: | Robinson, Elizabeth; Dasgupta, Shouro; Howarth, Candice; Bian, Alice |
| Abstract: | The UK’s 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2002, and heatwaves are likely to become more frequent and more severe until at least 2050, regardless of action taken globally to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Heatwaves affect workers’ health, labour productivity and labour supply, with largely negative implications for individual incomes, company profits and the economy more broadly. With a limited history of dealing with extreme high temperatures and no statutory maximum working temperature, the UK requires new measures to protect workers’ health which would also likely positively impact firm profitability and economic growth. The authors of this report surveyed 2, 000 workers after the period of elevated temperatures in summer 2024 to gain insights into how they were affected. This survey was followed by an expert roundtable with stakeholders from employment unions, local government, national government agencies, academia, the private sector, the charitable sector and chartered professional bodies in the UK. The aim was for the roundtable to co-create evidence-based, practical next steps for better protecting workers against the effects of high temperatures, informed by the survey results and the roundtable participants’ insights. |
| Keywords: | adaptation; climate change; climate policy; early warning system; heat; heatwave; UK; UK policy; worker protections; workers' health |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137105 |
| By: | Alan Finkelstein Shapiro; Olli-Pekka Kuusela |
| Abstract: | Zambia, an economy heavily reliant on hydropower for electricity, has faced sustained disruptions to electricity generation amid increasingly frequent and severe droughts. These drought-related disruptions have caused large GDP losses in recent years and have tilted electricity generation towards polluting sources, putting the green transition at risk. Current policy proposals aim to dramatically expand the share of electricity from solar. |
| Keywords: | Low income countries, Sub-Saharan Africa, Informal work, Green energy transition, Fiscal policy, Zambia |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-16 |
| By: | Sven Heim; Mario Liebensteiner; Félix Michelet |
| Abstract: | Wind turbines offer significant environmental benefits but also create negative local externalities, such as noise and visual pollution, which can lead to local tensions and community resistance against the energy transition. This paper examines negative and positive externalities associated with wind turbine siting in Germany. Utilizing an instrumental variables approach, we find that wind turbine siting decreases house purchase prices by 1.9% in affected municipalities, with this adverse effect being most pronounced for the first turbines installed. Additionally, the siting of wind turbines reduces local tourism, apartment rents, and leads to fewer building permits being issued for apartments and houses, exacerbating existing housing shortages. On the positive side, each installed wind turbine increases a municipality's local tax capacity by 1.8\% through higher commercial tax revenues. Our findings suggest that the negative externalities can be mitigated by investing the increased tax revenue into local amenities and public services, thereby compensating for the adverse effects of wind turbines. |
| Keywords: | wind power, externalities, hedonic pricing, NIMBY, local disamenities |
| JEL: | H2 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12478 |
| By: | Ruike Wu; Yonghe Lu; Yanrong Yang |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) constraint on a regularized mean-variance (MV) portfolio optimization problem in a large-dimensional setting, in which a positive definite regularization matrix is imposed on the sample covariance matrix. We first derive the asymptotic results for the out-of-sample (OOS) Sharpe ratio (SR) of the proposed portfolio, which help quantify the impact of imposing an ESG-level constraint as well as the effect of estimation error arising from the sample mean estimation of the assets' ESG score. Furthermore, to study the influence of the choices of the regularization matrix, we develop an estimator for the OOS Sharpe ratio. The corresponding asymptotic properties of the Sharpe ratio estimator are established based on random matrix theory. Simulation results show that the proposed estimators perform close to the corresponding oracle level. Moreover, we numerically investigate the impact of various forms of regularization matrices on the OOS SR, which provides useful guidance for practical implementation. Finally, based on OOS SR estimator, we propose an adaptive regularized portfolio which uses the best regularization matrix yielding the highest estimated SR (among a set of candidates) at each decision node. Empirical evidence based on the S\&P 500 index demonstrates that the proposed adaptive ESG-constrained portfolio achieves a high OOS SR while satisfying the required ESG level, offering a practically effective approach for sustainable investment. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.14439 |
| By: | Shagor Chowdhury (UMET - Unité Matériaux et Transformations - UMR 8207 - Centrale Lille - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Maya Marinova (IMEC - Institut Michel Eugène Chevreul - FR 2638 - UA - Université d'Artois - Centrale Lille - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Alexandre Fadel (IMEC - Institut Michel Eugène Chevreul - FR 2638 - UA - Université d'Artois - Centrale Lille - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Fadi Soubhie (UMET - Unité Matériaux et Transformations - UMR 8207 - Centrale Lille - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Severine Bellayer (UMET - Unité Matériaux et Transformations - UMR 8207 - Centrale Lille - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Clement Vandingenen; Philippe Supiot (UMET - Unité Matériaux et Transformations - UMR 8207 - Centrale Lille - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ulrich Maschke (UMET - Unité Matériaux et Transformations - UMR 8207 - Centrale Lille - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Keywords: | Lithium, energy, Battery |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05494640 |
| By: | Tom Youngman; Tim Lennox; M. Lopes Alves; Pirta Palola; Brendon Tankwa; Emma Bailey; Emilien Ravigne; Thijs Ter Horst; Benjamin Wagenvoort; Harry Lightfoot Brown; Jose Moran; Doyne Farmer |
| Abstract: | In June 2026, the UK government will set its carbon budget for the period 2038 to 2042, the seventh such carbon budget (CB7) since the Climate Change Act became law in 2008. For the first time, this carbon budget will be accompanied by a macroeconomic assessment of its impact on growth, employment, inflation and inequality. Researchers from the Institute of New Economic Thinking (INET) Oxford are working in partnership with the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero to deliver this assessment using our data-driven macroeconomic agent-based model (ABM). This extended abstract presents the work in progress towards this pioneering policymaking using our data-driven macroeconomic ABM. We are conducting our work in three work packages. By the time of the workshop, we hope to be able to present preliminary findings from the first two work packages. In WP1, we adapt an existing macro-ABM prototype and build a UK macroeconomic baseline. The main task for this is initialising the model with suitable UK household microdata. We present the options considered and the approach settled upon. In WP2, we conduct preliminary modelling that represents UK decarbonisation as an external shock to financial flows and technical coefficients. In order to present results in time to influence the June 2026 policy decision, this second work package exogenously forces the ABM to follow the CB7 green investment and associated technological change projections provided by the Climate Change Committee. Finally, we will implement more sophisticated social and technological learning packages in WP3, building our own projections of likely decarbonisation pathways that may diverge from UK government plans. For the workshop, we will present the progress of WP1 and WP2. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.15607 |
| By: | Selvaraju, Sangeeth |
| Abstract: | Decarbonising industry is a major 21st century challenge that requires international partnership, cooperation and corporate strategy. Historically ‘hard-to-abate’ sectors like steel are now central to this policy debate. Large emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) like India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are rapidly industrialising and driving new steel demand. But while steelmakers in the EU are investing in decarbonisation, this is proving more challenging for EMDEs. A major obstacle is the high associated cost and techno-economic limitations of implementing new methods, such as hydrogen-based iron reduction. This report seeks to understand the use of direct state subsidies as a critical enabling factor in EMDEs’ transition to decarbonising steel. The core contribution is a novel dataset on state subsidies for low-carbon steel projects worldwide. This dataset provides a foundation for future research on resource allocation and green industrial policy, enabling deeper analysis of how public finance shapes technology adoption and competitiveness in the steel sector and what the optimal policy package could be, given natural resource endowments, fiscal space and other existing climate policies that can be used together in the context of state capital expenditure (CapEx) and operational expenditure (OpEx) subsidies. |
| Keywords: | development finance; industry; global; India; policy |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137112 |
| By: | Kine Josefine Aurland-Bredesen; Tor Håkon Jackson Inderberg; Snorre Kverndokk |
| Abstract: | Public acceptance has influenced the evolution of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Europe. To study the mechanisms behind this, we use evolutionary game theory where the governmental policy towards CCS, such as subsidies to the industry, is dependent on public acceptance. Public acceptance further depends on the perceived benefits and costs for individuals of CCS. We show that in this model, multiple equilibria may exist, and the starting point as well as the heterogeneity of firms will determine the equilibrium that will be reached over time. While the subsidy is tied to public acceptance, the government can affect development by correcting other imperfections in the market. Using such policy instruments, a new equilibrium may develop with a higher share of investments in CCS. The model also suggests an explanation of the different situations in many countries today with respect to CCS investments and investment plans. |
| Keywords: | carbon capture and storage, evolutionary games, public acceptance, climate change |
| JEL: | C73 H23 Q35 Q38 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12412 |
| By: | Nidhiya Menon; Yana Rodgers |
| Abstract: | This article provides an overview of the history of economic thought on natural resource extraction, which has long been considered an enclave industry with few benefits for areas beyond the local economy. We focus on more recent scholarship examining the social impacts of natural resource extraction, emphasizing gender-related outcomes and determinants. An important lesson from this scholarship is that it is difficult to discuss sustainable development in its contemporary sense without paying due diligence to the gender dimensions of natural resource extraction. A lesson highlighted is that the "resource curse" view of natural capital may not be as pervasive as previously thought. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.15980 |
| By: | Wala Zoghlami (UMET - Unité Matériaux et Transformations - UMR 8207 - Centrale Lille - INC-CNRS - Institut de Chimie - CNRS Chimie - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Keywords: | irradiation UV, fluide supercritique, DEEE, recyclage, Décontamination |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05494641 |
| By: | Jheelum Sarkar |
| Abstract: | Over the past three decades, extreme climate events have caused losses of worth USD 4.5 trillion. Using a panel of 151 countries (1995-2019), I examine how extreme climate conditions shape gender gap in labor force participation. Key results show that the gender gap in paid labor exhibits a U-shaped relationship with droughts and an inverted U-shaped relationship with extreme wet conditions. The drought pattern is primarily driven by gender gap in employment while wetness affects gender gap in participation through unemployment. These relationships vary with country characteristics. Countries with high disaster-displacement risk exhibit declining gender gaps in participation during excess wetness while moderate-risk economies experience expanded gaps during droughts. Furthermore, the drought U-shape is most pronounced in countries with low to moderate empowerment while the nonlinear wet responses is concentrated only in moderately empowered countries. Lastly, both droughts and excess wetness expands gender gap in countries with weak net resilience to climate shocks. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.07808 |
| By: | Perkins, Richard; Taeger, Matthias |
| Abstract: | Green finance has demonstrated remarkable resilience despite ongoing challenges. We address this puzzle by arguing that this resilience rests on a promissory legitimacy – credibility derived from future-oriented promises rather than present achievements. To advance this argument, we develop the concept of a promissory machine which produces green finance through the ordering logics of promises, themselves primarily directed at financial audiences. The machine further works to uphold the credibility of these promises through cycles of credibility work. A corollary is that green finance is constantly evolving, diversifying, and growing in complexity in ways that ultimately obscure the veracity of promissory claims. We contribute to debates on future temporalities by suggesting that the promises of green finance extend the present rather than creating possibilities for transforming it. |
| Keywords: | green finance; promissory legitimacy; machine; temporalities; greenwashing |
| JEL: | F3 G3 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137061 |
| By: | Selvaraju, Sangeeth; Pratiwi, Anisa; Sabogal Reyes, Laura; Ahlgren, Victor |
| Abstract: | Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) are political agreements between a group of donor countries and an emerging economy partner country to mobilise and coordinate public and private finance to support a just energy transition. When they were initially launched in 2021 they represented a turning point in international climate finance towards a more comprehensive, country-led approach linking emissions mitigation with social equity in coal-dependent economies. However, their disproportionate reliance on loans has been suggested to have put the ‘just’ component of the transition at risk, particularly in countries already grappling with mounting debt and fiscal constraints. Country platforms build on the ambitions of JETPs in mobilising and coordinating public and private finance to support a just energy transition while placing greater emphasis on country ownership, coherence, and integration into long-term development and climate objectives. This report analyses the grant distribution of JETPs in Indonesia and South Africa to support future country platform design. |
| Keywords: | development finance; energy; industry; global; financial instruments and strategies; policy |
| JEL: | N0 F3 G3 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–11–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137110 |
| By: | Robben, Jens (University of Amsterdam); Barigou, Karim (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium); Kleinow, Torsten (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a granular regime-switching framework to model mortality deviations from seasonal baseline trends driven by temperature and epidemic shocks. The framework features three states: (1) a baseline state that captures observed seasonal mortality patterns, (2) an environmental shock state for heat waves, and (3) a respiratory shock state that addresses mortality deviations caused by strong outbreaks of respiratory diseases due to influenza and COVID-19. Transition probabilities between states are modeled using covariate-dependent multinomial logit functions. These functions incorporate, among others, lagged temperature and influenza incidence rates as predictors, allowing dynamic adjustments to evolving shocks. Calibrated on weekly mortality data across 21 French regions and six age groups, the regime-switching framework accounts for spatial and demographic heterogeneity. Under various projection scenarios for temperature and influenza, we quantify uncertainty in mortality forecasts through prediction intervals constructed using an extensive bootstrap approach. These projections can guide healthcare providers and hospitals in managing risks and planning resources for potential future shocks. |
| Keywords: | granular mortality modeling ; regime-switching ; environmental shocks ; respiratory shocks |
| Date: | 2025–03–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiz:louvad:2025006 |
| By: | Djedjiga Kachenoura (AFD - Agence française de développement); David Chetboun (AFD - Agence française de développement); Marine Lagarde (AFD - Agence française de développement); Laurent Mélère (AFD - Agence française de développement); Damien Serra (AFD - Agence française de développement) |
| Abstract: | En 2015, à l'approche de la COP21 à Paris, le discours de Mark Carney, alors gouverneur de la Banque d'Angleterre et mandaté par le Conseil de stabilité financière du G20, a fait date. Il alertait sur l'importance des risques financiers climatiques pour la stabilité des institutions financières et du système financier dans son ensemble. La charge politique de la transition était laissée aux États, à condition qu'elle soit ordonnée, tandis que la responsabilité de la stabilité incombait aux régulateurs et aux banques centrales. La « finance », informée par des régimes de divulgation d'informations extra-financières, allait orienter la demande en tant que pourvoyeur de capital. Ces régimes de divulgation devaient être initiés par les acteurs privés et soutenus par les régulateurs. M. Carney craignait cependant qu'ils manquent de cohérence, de comparabilité et de clarté. Depuis, ces régimes ont proliféré couvrant à la fois les risques et l'alignement des flux financiers sur l'Accord de Paris. Néanmoins, cette « théorie du changement » et la répartition des responsabilités des acteurs demeurent floues et ambiguës. Les régulateurs financiers doivent collaborer pour rendre ces différents régimes inter-opérants et expliciter leurs objectifs. De plus, les coûts de mise en conformité et la déconnexion de certains cadres des réalités nationales freinent la mobilisation des financements et peuvent mener à l'exclusion des entités les plus vulnérables, un sujet peu abordé. |
| Keywords: | Réglementation financière, Accord de Paris, Politiques financières, Risques climatiques, Banques centrales, Taxonomie verte, Finance climat |
| Date: | 2024–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05421553 |
| By: | Federico M. Accursi; Raul Bajo-Buenestado |
| Abstract: | Mini-grids are emerging as a key solution to electrify access-deficit communities, yet their effectiveness in improving energy access and household welfare remains underexplored. This paper provides novel evidence from Tanzania, where a policy reform doubled the number of mini-grids since 2008. Exploiting spatial and temporal variation created by the distance to the households in proximity to mini-grids and the timing of their deployment, and using data from two different nationally representative surveys, we find that mini-grids increase local electrification rates by 10-23 percentage points — a result corroborated by a surge in nighttime light intensity near newly deployed projects. We also show that mini-grids reduce reliance on polluting fuel-based lighting and drive the uptake of electric-powered devices. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest the surplus generated by renewable-based mini-grids nearly offsets their costs. |
| Keywords: | energy access, mini-grids, nighttime light, energy poverty, Sub-Saharan Africa, sustainable development |
| JEL: | L94 O13 Q48 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12453 |
| By: | Marcel Ricou (IREX); John Mountford (Consultant); Helen Dempster (Center for Global Development); Shona Warren (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The global transition to a low-carbon economy demands the increased delivery of green skills, yet technical and vocational education and training (TVET) systems in Africa struggle to meet this need. This landscape analysis, by the Center for Global Development and IREX, aims to identify “investment-ready” TVET providers in Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, and Morocco that are capable of scaling green skills training for local and international markets. Drawing on a literature review, field visits, and stakeholder interviews, the landscape analysis identifies nine high-performing providers – mainly public-private partnerships and utility-based Centres of Excellence – delivering industry-aligned, employment-driven training. To accelerate green skills development, support international labour mobility, and advance equitable participation in the green transition, donors and national governments should invest in these providers and help scale their models. This agenda is particularly urgent when considering the challenges facing Africa: a demographic youth bulge, increasing unemployment rates, and a scarcity of workers to support Africa’s green transition. The paper concludes with actionable opportunities for international donors and national governments to invest in scalable, sustainable green-skilled migration partnerships. |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:382 |
| By: | Chanda, Arka; Tyson, Judith |
| Abstract: | This report develops a framework to map the scale and scope of the just transition for private equity and credit funds that have specialist expertise in sustainable and socially responsible investing. It provides evidence to inform the case for continued action on a just transition, examples of emerging practice for investors, and recommendations for policymakers. As private capital assumes a growing share of financing for energy infrastructure – a sector with clear implications for community development, employment and land use – understanding how these investors approach the just transition becomes critical. The report examines how 23 specialist private equity and credit funds embed just transition principles into their energy infrastructure investments, drawing on policy document analysis and semi-structured interviews with fund representatives. |
| Keywords: | development finance; institutional investors; energy; global; financial instruments and strategies |
| JEL: | R14 J01 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137113 |
| By: | Giuseppe Attanasi (Sapienza University of Rome); Annamaria Nese (University of Salerno); Patrizia Sbriglia (Luigi Vanvitelli University of Campania); Luigi Senatore (University of Salerno) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we report the results of a field experiment conducted in Southern Italy in 2023, analysing the behavioural effects of earthquakes as far as trust, trustworthiness, and risk aversion are concerned. The experiments were conducted in an area where a disastrous earthquake occurred in 1980 within the Campania region. Our working hypotheses aim at testing whether there are long-term effects of an earthquake. The experimental design comprised two treatments. For the first treatment, we recruited subjects living in towns close to the earthquake epicentre that had experienced significant damage from the disaster. For the second treatment, we recruited subjects living in towns with similar socio-economic characteristics but located far from the epicentre. Our results indicate that subjects who experienced the earthquake and its aftermath are more willing to trust, reciprocate kindness, and are more risk-averse than subjects in the alternative treatment. Overall, our results shed new light on the long-term effects of catastrophes and bear relevant implications for public and health policies. |
| Keywords: | Field Experiments, Environmental Disasters, Trust, Risk Aversion |
| JEL: | C90 C91 C93 D15 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp67 |
| By: | Fulton, Lewis PhD; Lamichhaine, Madhu; Lipman, Timothy PhD; Coffee, Daniel PhD; Kong, David PhD |
| Abstract: | This report develops a transportation hydrogen roadmap for California projected to 2045, building on previous UC ITS work, in part for the ARCHES hydrogen hub for trucks and ports. This study adds modes such as airports, aircraft, rail systems, and fuel-cell light-duty vehicles. Based on a scenario of high adoption of hydrogen-fueled transport, these modes and sectors would use 1000 tonnes/day of hydrogen by 2035 and 5000 tonnes/day by 2045. To 2035, about 40% of the expected growth occurs in heavy-duty trucking. Another 20% is used by other truck types, about 20% by light-duty vehicles, and 20% by other modes, notably shipping and aviation. These shares remain similar to 2045. Trucking remains the dominant driver of demand. Shipping, aviation, and rail are not anticipated to account for an increasing share of demand in the scenarios in this study. This hydrogen fuel system would support around 6, 000 jobs per year. Hydrogen vehicle adoption will depend on strong policy support, coordination of planning and investments, and rapid scale up to reach a hydrogen system that can be self-sustaining, on the order of hundreds of tonnes per day by 2040. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Hydrogen fuels, Hydrogen refueling, Fuel consumption, Greenhouse gases, Technology adoption, Trucking, Ports |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5fh1v02k |
| By: | Mario Montalvan (mario.montalvanalvarado@uts.edu.au); Kaveh Khalilpour (Kaveh.Khalilpour@uts.edu.au); Reinhard Madlener (RMadlener@eonerc.rwth-aachen.de) |
| Abstract: | This study presents a comprehensive framework for establishing a hydrogen supply chain network in Central America, encompassing Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama, in alignment with global decarbonization efforts. Utilizing Mixed Integer Linear Programming, the research assesses the techno-economic feasibility of hydrogen integration, focusing on its role in freight transportation and regional electricity supply. The findings highlight alkaline electrolysis as the preferred production method, with liquefied hydrogen and ammonia identified as optimal carriers. Costa Rica and Nicaragua emerge as key production hubs, supplying hydrogen to neighboring countries via sea transport. The estimated levelized cost of hydrogen is 10.84 USD/kg, largely driven by electricity prices, with projections indicating a reduction to 5.16 USD/kg by 2050. A comparative analysis suggests that under specific conditions, hydrogen could achieve cost parity with diesel by 2050. While acknowledging data limitations and socio-economic uncertainties, this study provides critical insights into hydrogen’s potential role in Central America's energy transition, serving as a foundation for future research and policy development. |
| Keywords: | hydrogen economy; liquefied hydrogen; ammonia; supply chain; electrolyzer; Central America |
| JEL: | C61 Q41 L91 |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:022307 |
| By: | Fulton, Lewis PhD; Lamichhaine, Madhu; Lipman, Timothy PhD; Coffee, Daniel PhD; Kong, David PhD |
| Abstract: | This report develops a transportation hydrogen roadmap for California projected to 2045, building on previous UC ITS work, in part for the ARCHES hydrogen hub for trucks and ports. This study adds modes such as airports, aircraft, rail systems, and fuel-cell light-duty vehicles. Based on a scenario of high adoption of hydrogen-fueled transport, these modes and sectors would use 1000 tonnes/day of hydrogen by 2035 and 5000 tonnes/day by 2045. To 2035, about 40% of the expected growth occurs in heavy-duty trucking. Another 20% is used by other truck types, about 20% by light-duty vehicles, and 20% by other modes, notably shipping and aviation. These shares remain similar to 2045. Trucking remains the dominant driver of demand. Shipping, aviation, and rail are not anticipated to account for an increasing share of demand in the scenarios in this study. This hydrogen fuel system would support around 6, 000 jobs per year. Hydrogen vehicle adoption will depend on strong policy support, coordination of planning and investments, and rapid scale up to reach a hydrogen system that can be self-sustaining, on the order of hundreds of tonnes per day by 2040. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Hydrogen fuels, Hydrogen refueling, Fuel consumption, Greenhouse gases, Technology adoption, Trucking, Ports |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5fh1v02k |
| By: | Niakh, Fallou; Bassière, Alicia; Denuit, Michel (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium); Robert, Christian |
| Abstract: | This work presents a framework for peer-to-peer (P2P) basis risk management applied to solar electricity generation. The approach leverages physically based simulation models to estimate the day-ahead production forecasts and the actual realized production at the solar farm level. We quantify the financial loss from mismatches between forecasted and actual production using the outputs of these simulations. The framework then implements a parametric insurance mechanism to mitigate these financial losses and combines it with a P2P market structure to enhance participant risk sharing. By integrating day-ahead forecasts and actual production data with physical modeling, this method provides a comprehensive solution to manage production variability, offering practical insights for improving financial resilience in renewable energy systems. The results highlight the potential of combining parametric insurance with P2P mechanisms to foster reliability and collaboration in renewable energy markets. |
| Keywords: | Parametric insurance ; Basis risk ; P2P insurance ; Renewable production insurance |
| Date: | 2025–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiz:louvad:2025007 |
| By: | Ahmed Iqbal (Consultant); Helen Dempster (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | This policy paper examines the scale and composition of donor investment in technical and vocational education and training (TVET), with a particular focus on green skills, using OECD Creditor Reporting System data from 2013–2022. By applying a broader methodology that captures TVET across 14 training-related purpose codes and identifying projects through keyword searches, the analysis provides a more comprehensive estimate of official development assistance to the sector. It finds that donors disbursed approximately US$7.5 billion to TVET over the decade, with funding highly concentrated among a small group of donors—led by Germany, the United States, Canada, Australia, and the World Bank—and directed primarily toward large emerging economies and selected low-income countries. Despite this, TVET accounts for less than 2 percent of total aid. Green TVET represents a small but growing share of this portfolio, rising from a very low base to around 2–2.5 percent in recent years, with most projects focused on renewable energy—especially solar photovoltaics. The paper highlights significant measurement challenges arising from the absence of a harmonised definition of TVET and fragmented reporting practices, which obscure the true scale of investment and limit impact assessment. It argues that agreeing a common definition and improving donor reporting systems would strengthen comparability, support evidence generation, and help unlock greater and more effective investment in skills for the green transition. |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:381 |
| By: | Elizabeth Frankenberg; Nicholas Ingwersen; Cecep Sumantri; Duncan Thomas |
| Abstract: | Natural disasters undermine economic development, destroying lives, livelihoods, the built and natural environment. Public assistance programs follow, but knowledge of their reach, impact and evolution is limited. We address this gap, analyzing population-representative longitudinal survey data collected in Indonesia before and for two decades after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami which was followed by a large recovery program involving multiple major actors. Those who lived, at the time of the tsunami, in communities that were badly damaged, were far more likely to receive aid and received larger amounts than residents of other areas immediately after the tsunami. Those gaps were small and insignificant four years post-tsunami. Conditional on exposure, individual attributes also shaped receipt which reached the vulnerable, particularly poor and female-headed households. Housing assistance, distributed several years post-tsunami to those who lost homes, was critical in the eyes of recipients, playing a key role as they rebuilt livelihoods. |
| JEL: | I38 O1 O19 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34826 |
| By: | Niyokwiringirwa, Priscilla; Gall, Tjark; Jha, Abhas K. |
| Abstract: | Landslides claim more than 4, 000 lives annually and lead to approximately US$20 billion in economic losses. However, landslide hazard, risk assessment, and early warning systems remain constrained by fragmented, inconsistent, and incomplete data. This study addresses the global data gap by proposing a standardized, interoperable framework for documenting landslide events across countries. Using open-access data and machine learning–based susceptibility modeling in Nepal, the paper assesses the limitations of existing inventories in terms of spatial resolution, temporal updates, and missing attributes such as triggers, volumes, impacts, and soil-geotechnical properties that are critical for hazard prediction and risk modeling. These deficiencies reduce the accuracy and transferability of models, limiting the effectiveness of early warning and risk mitigation strategies. To fill this gap, the paper proposes a tiered data standard aligned with the International Organization for Standardization 19115, the Open Geospatial Consortium standards, and the Sendai Framework indicators, enabling scalable, consistent reporting of landslide events. The framework improves data completeness and model performance and supports risk-informed decision-making. The World Bank is well-positioned to operationalize this standard through its extensive portfolio of landslide mitigation and disaster risk reduction programs. Institutionalizing such a framework can improve global coordination, reduce disaster losses, and protect vulnerable communities. |
| Date: | 2026–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11324 |
| By: | Stylianos Asimakopoulos; George Kapetanios; Vasilis Sarafidis; Alexia Ventouri |
| Abstract: | We study spillover effects in corporate toxic emissions using a heterogeneous panel network of U.S. industrial facilities from 2000-2023. Rather than imposing a network structure a priori, we uncover an unobserved web of influence directly from the data using recent advances in high-dimensional network econometrics. Indirect effects transmitted through the estimated network account for about 28% of the total impact of key firm balance-sheet characteristics. By contrast, distance-based networks generate no statistically discernible spillovers, while a priori firm- or industry-based networks substantially overstate within-group spillins relative to the data-driven network. These findings show that who is linked to whom, and with what strength, matters critically for assessing systemic environmental risk and for designing targeted regulation. Methodologically, the paper provides a flexible framework for quantifying facility-level emissions spillovers and their consequences in financial and policy settings. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.21434 |
| By: | Toshiaki Hiromitsu; Keiichiro Kobayashi; Tatsuyoshi Saijo; Yoshinori Nakagawa |
| Abstract: | Implementing a sustainable society within Earth system boundaries requires not only normatively sound principles but also reasons that citizens find persuasive. This study examines the public acceptance of intergenerational ethics and their persuasiveness in policy contexts across cultures, using twelve moral principles that integrate Western political philosophy and moral psychology. Drawing on survey data from 3, 619 respondents in the United States, France, Japan, China, India, the United Arab Emirates, and South Africa, we analyze the structure of intergenerational ethics using factor analysis and multidimensional scaling (MDS). We show that intergenerational ethics are better organized into two themes—Survival Justice and Distributive Justice—than along the individualizing/binding distinction of Moral Foundations Theory. Survival Justice, oriented toward harm avoidance and environmental preservation, constitutes a cross-culturally robust core, whereas Distributive Justice, concerning intergenerational fairness and its institutional foundations, forms a context-dependent periphery. While both themes are strongly endorsed in emerging economies, mature societies—most notably Japan—exhibit a pronounced specialization toward Survival Justice alongside a relative decline in Distributive Justice. In policy contexts, Survival Justice proves persuasive not only for climate change and advanced technologies but also for fiscal issues; however, support for moral principles does not automatically translate into acceptance of concrete policy instruments, underscoring the need for a two-step strategy that combines a shared civic perspective with transitional measures and explicit arrangements for burden sharing. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnn:wpaper:26-003e |
| By: | Adrien Fabre (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Using an original survey of 12, 000 respondents representative of eleven high-income countries (the United States, Japan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and seven European countries), I examine public support for international redistribution and climate policies, as well as its sensitivity to key policy features such as the size of transfers and country coverage. Although global inequality is not a salient concern, it is perceived as a significant injustice. There is majority acceptance in every country for nearly all global policies tested, including those that would redistribute 5 percent of global income or entail personal costs for respondents. An information treatment shows that support for global policies causally increases among respondents who perceive them as likely; an effect opposite to warm glow. Support for international policies decreases only slightly as country coverage shrinks. Overall, the results reinforce previous findings and suggest that a broad coalition of countries could feasibly advance sustainable development. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:halshs-05514670 |
| By: | Isabella Damiani (LIMEEP – PS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire sur les Mutations des Espaces Économiques et Politiques – Paris Saclay - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - Université Paris-Saclay); Marie Hiliquin (TVES - Territoires, Villes, Environnement & Société - ULR 4477 - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the role of Khorgos, a special economic zone located on the border between China and Kazakhstan, within the framework of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In less than a decade, Khorgos has become a strategic hub for rail freight between China and Europe, increasing from 25 trains in 2013 to more than 8, 700 in 2024, reflecting China's efforts to strengthen overland connectivity and establish alternative corridors to maritime trade. This paper, drawing on satellite data and spatial analysis through remote sensing, focuses on three main dimensions. First, it analyses the peripheral urbanisation of the city of Khorgos, which is embedded in China's territorial strategies to connect the western region to the rest of the country through infrastructure development, securitisation, and territorial control. Second, it situates Khorgos within a regional scale, namely the Khorgos-Yining-Qingshuihe economic complex. This analysis highlights the functional division of employment between Yining, the true administrative centre, Qingshuihe as the production core, and Khorgos, which remains primarily a transit point for Chinese exports, thereby illustrating an asymmetry in cross-border exchanges with Kazakhstan. Third, the paper examines territorial production and environmental differentiation. Remote sensing analyses reveal pronounced asymmetries in land use and ecological transformations between the Chinese and Kazakh sides of the border: China has developed a diversified and tightly regulated territorial model, combining urban and agricultural infrastructures, whereas the Kazakh side remains less structured and less developed. Chinese ecological initiatives, such as photovoltaic projects and urban greening policies, further reinforce cross-border territorial asymmetries and raise critical questions about the actual impacts of the BRI and the associated "win-win" cooperation rhetoric. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Urban planing, Borders, Kazakhstan, China, Belt Road Initiative, Khorgos |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05486194 |
| By: | Giulia Martinelli (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Andrea Ascani (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Stefano Basilico (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Alberto Marzucchi (Gran Sasso Science Institute) |
| Abstract: | By integrating the literature on the twin transition with an international business perspective, this paper assesses whether the regional endowment of green, digital and twin occupations in the EU can act as a pull factor for inward foreign direct investment (FDI). We explore green, digital and twin skills per se as well as the role of their respective enabling (complementary) skills. We find a positive link of enabling skills on inward FDI, while focused digital and twin skills are generally not related to a higher level of FDI attractiveness. A high regional endowment of green skills may even have detrimental effects under specific circumstances. Our evidence paves the way for policies reinforcing locations with occupational complementarities between green, digital and twin competences in order to foster regional participation in global dynamics and favouring the twin transition. |
| Keywords: | green skills, digital skills, twin skills, FDI, EU regions |
| JEL: | F23 O33 O32 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp79 |
| By: | Tal, Gil PhD; Kurani, Kenneth PhD |
| Abstract: | Since most Californians don’t buy new cars, the used car market plays a vital role in broadening access to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), particularly among lower-income populations who may find new ZEVs financially out of reach. However, little is known about the used ZEV market. To address this gap, our research team analyzed used ZEV market characteristics, buyer demographics, and the patterns of vehicle transfers within the state. The aim of our research is to help policymakers understand how the used ZEV market contributes to California’s broader goals of reducing emissions and ensuring equitably access to clean transportation technologies. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9fz4b7dv |
| By: | Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has triggered profound structural changes in the country’s economy, reshaping patterns of foreign trade, foreign direct investment and sectoral specialisation. This paper analyses the shifts in Ukraine’s trade and investment structures over the past three years and assesses their implications for Ukraine’s future competitiveness and for EU-Ukraine economic relations, with particular attention to the EU’s strategic autonomy in an increasingly fragmented global economy. The analysis shows a rapid reorientation of Ukraine’s merchandise exports towards the EU, driven by emergency trade liberalisation and alternative logistics routes, alongside a marked decline in exports to China. At the same time, Ukraine’s dependence on Chinese imports has intensified, especially for machinery and high-tech inputs critical to defence production, creating new security vulnerabilities. Agriculture has emerged as the most resilient export sector, while metallurgy and manufacturing have suffered lasting losses. Ukraine’s FDI inflows remain notably weak compared with regional peers, with limited progress in attracting investment into high-value and strategic sectors. The paper further examines Ukraine’s role in critical raw materials, renewable energy, agriculture and drone production, highlighting missed opportunities and emerging risks for the EU. It concludes that without faster, more co-ordinated EU engagement – particularly in critical minerals, green energy, defence-industrial integration and investment de-risking – the EU risks losing strategic influence in Ukraine and undermining its own long-term economic and security objectives. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, the EU, China, the US, foreign trade, FDI, renewable energy, critical minerals, agriculture, competitiveness, security, DCFTA, CAP |
| JEL: | F10 F21 F50 F52 F55 O50 Q17 Q34 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:103 |
| By: | Jose Benjamin Falck-Zepeda |
| Abstract: | The paper introduces the basic concepts related to adoption, diffusion and innovation in the agricultural sector. This paper introduces relevant definitions and issues, examines conceptual models of technology diffusion in agriculture, followed by a description of the process of technology discovery. The paper furthermore explores the channels and mechanisms of diffusion, the factors influencing adoption, the adaptation of technologies to local contexts, empirical studies illustrating innovation and diffusion patterns, the role of government policies and international organizations, and the impact of technology diffusion on agricultural productivity, sustainable development, and food security and livelihoods. The paper then discusses innovation and diffusion of agricultural biotechnologies and precision agricultural technologies by summarizing the experiences and lessons learned from insect resistant and herbicide tolerant maize, insect resistant cotton and precision agriculture technologies in a selected set of countries. The paper draws up policy lessons and recommendations that may be useful to policy and decision makers considering such technologies in their jurisdiction. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Diffusion, Genetically modified crops, Agriculture, Least Developed Countries |
| JEL: | O13 O33 Q16 O31 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wip:wpaper:94 |
| By: | Richard Lombardo; Elizabeth Frankenberg; Duncan Thomas |
| Abstract: | Little is known about the impact on small-scale enterprises of a large negative shock that destroys assets and disrupts local markets. We document the short- and long-run impacts of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami using longitudinal household survey data. We leverage topography-driven variation in exposure to the tsunami in coastal Aceh and North Sumatra, Indonesia. There are large short-run declines in business ownership, real profits, and real business assets among those exposed to the tsunami relative to comparison individuals who were not directly exposed. The gap in ownership rates disappears within two years in the non-agricultural sector but persists for 15 years in the agricultural sector. Profits and business assets of the exposed remain substantially lower through the long-term. Tsunami exposure led to increased short-duration transitions into and out of business ownership. Housing aid is linked to higher rates of non-agricultural business ownership and profits. |
| JEL: | O1 O17 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34839 |
| By: | Helen Dempster (Center for Global Development); Marcel Ricou (IREX) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how linking international labor mobility and technical and vocational education and training (TVET) can enhance the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and developmental impact of donor and government investments in skills development. In the context of shrinking global aid budgets and persistent skills shortages in low-, middle-, and high-income countries, we argue that linking labor mobility and TVET (particularly in skills relevant to the green transition) can deliver a “triple win”: improving employment outcomes for trainees; filling critical labor gaps in countries of destination; and strengthening TVET institutions in countries of origin. Drawing on evidence from existing initiatives, this paper identifies two broad, non-mutually exclusive, approaches for linking labor mobility and TVET: (1) aligning training content and quality with employer needs; and (2) recognizing qualifications or certifications, through mechanisms such as mutual recognition processes and international accreditation. Complementary measures—including language training, cultural orientation, and sustainable financing models—are also examined. This paper discusses how this linkage can increase TVET placement rates, improve institutional quality, attract investment, and expand opportunities for disadvantaged groups, including refugees. It also outlines how best to leverage these impacts by working with existing high-performing TVET providers to build successful, sustainable talent pipelines as a pathway to scale. |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:380 |
| By: | Jessica Coria |
| Abstract: | Large volumes of e-waste collected under formal schemes in high-income countries are still processed informally in developing ones, despite continuous policy efforts to reverse this trend. This paper shows that the persistence of informal e-waste processing is a consequence of how global waste flows interact with domestic market structure. I develop a two-country model in which a cost-minimizing broker exports low-value fractions of e-waste to a poorer country, where informal dismantlers and licensed recyclers compete to purchase material from local collectors. Because formal facilities incur fixed-capacity costs, their competitiveness depends on achieving sufficiently high-value throughput. Low-value exports from the rich country increase total inflows but depress the effective high-value throughput and dilute domestic subsidies, keeping average costs high and allowing informal dismantlers to outbid formal recyclers. The model generates a formalization trap with multiple equilibria and explains why widely used policies, including per-unit subsidies, capital support, higher recycling targets in rich countries, and integration of informal collectors into formal systems, often fail to trigger a transition toward formal treatment. |
| Keywords: | electronic waste, Informality, recycling and waste management, international trade in waste, formalization traps, developing countries |
| JEL: | O17 O19 F18 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12471 |
| By: | Fioretti, Michele; Saint-Jean, Victor; Smith, Simon C. |
| Abstract: | We examine how NGOs time campaigns to influence corporate decisions at Annual General Meetings (AGMs). Using data on 2, 500 U.S. campaigns, we find that NGOs often campaign on the AGM date, which increases media exposure and future shareholder proposals but does not affect current AGM votes or consumers. As NGOs gain reputational capital, they shift to earlier pre-AGM campaigns to support related shareholder proposals and directly improve corporate behavior. The evidence underscores a strategic trade-off between visibility and influence, showing how NGO tactics evolve with NGOs' credibility and the changing expectations of socially conscious stakeholders about NGO activities. |
| Keywords: | Non-Governmental Organizations, NGO campaigns, social and environmental responsibility, ESG, firm dynamics, non-profit objectives |
| JEL: | L21 L31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:336740 |
| By: | Garcia Calvo, Angela (University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how Europe may achieve this goal through an analysis of the automotive sector as it transitions from internal combustion engines to battery electric, software-defined vehicles |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bda:wpsmep:wp2025/47 |
| By: | Benteng Zou (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Carmen Camacho (Paris School of Economics); Weihua Ruan (Purdue University Northwest, USA) |
| Abstract: | "We develop an optimal control framework for infinite-dimensional systems with in- equality state constraints, extending the Pontryagin Maximum Principle to diffusion- driven dynamics with bounded states. The resulting conditions feature Radon-measure multipliers that characterize boundary behavior in distributed environments. As an illus- tration, we apply the framework to a model of land fertility evolving through reversible pollution and spatial diffusion. We show how discounting shapes optimal consumption, the activation of state constraints, and long-run spatial patterns. In the homogeneous case, explicit solutions identify conditions for full restoration or persistent degradation, while heterogeneous settings generate hybrid finite-horizon and long-run regimes. The framework provides general analytical tools for dynamic optimization problems with dif- fusion and bounded state variables." |
| Keywords: | "Economic growth, Diffusion, Soil Pollution, Optimal Control, Limited re- sources" |
| JEL: | C61 O44 Q15 Q56 R11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:26-01 |
| By: | Friedrich Heinemann; Jan Kemper |
| Abstract: | We examine the changing attention that ECB Governing Council members pay to different policy objectives by analysing more than 4, 600 speeches given between the establishment of the ECB and the summer of 2024. Alongside the primary objective of price stability, we consider the following potential secondary objectives: financial stability, stability of the government bond market, sustainable public debt, climate protection and distribution. On the methodological side, we take advantage of LLMs to identify the speeches’ coverage of each of these objectives and the associated support. We conduct a series of validation tests to verify our AI-based scores, including a conventional dictionary approach. We use two-way fixed effects regressions to search for a link between a country's level of public debt and the objective function of its representatives. The results suggest that objectives have become more diverse in recent years. An increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio in a governor’s home country is associated with a shift in focus away from the primary objective and towards a growing coverage and support for secondary objectives. This general pattern is particularly robust for the distribution objective. These results can only be partly explained by governor selection. Therefore, in their communication, individual governors indicate shifts in their objective function in response to changes in the fiscal situation of their home country. |
| Keywords: | fiscal dominance, green monetary policy, large language model, text analysis |
| JEL: | E58 E52 H63 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12493 |
| By: | Jingni Zhang; David Popp |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EVs) are crucial for cutting transportation emissions, yet the policy drivers of EV innovation remain underexplored. This study analyzes firm-level panel data on EV and battery patents, covering more than 4, 000 firms across 19 countries from 2010 to 2021, to assess how these policy tools and their interactions in different time horizons influence innovative activity. We test the effects of individual policy instruments that either raise demand for EVs or support the development of EV technologies. Stringent fuel-economy standards, financial incentives, adoption targets, and public R&D investments each significantly increase patenting in EV and battery technologies. Moreover, long-term EV targets amplify the innovative impact of public R&D and standards while diminishing the marginal effect of short-term price signals. The results suggest that governments can accelerate clean automotive innovation by combining long-term adoption commitments with sustained R&D investment or strong performance standards, and by managing these instruments as a coordinated policy portfolio rather than as separate tools. The study contributes cross-country, firm-level evidence that links policy design to the direction of clean technology innovation. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicle, technological innovation, policy horizons |
| JEL: | O31 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12421 |
| By: | Florian Bonnet (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Ina Alliger (BIB - Federal Institute for Population Research); Carlo Giovanni Camarda (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Sebastian Klüsener (BIB - Federal Institute for Population Research, Universität zu Köln = University of Cologne, VDU - Vytautas Magnus University - Vytauto Didziojo Universitetas); France Meslé (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques); Michael Mühlichen (BIB - Federal Institute for Population Research); Josselin Thuilliez (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pavel Grigoriev (BIB - Federal Institute for Population Research) |
| Abstract: | Decelerating gains in life expectancy ( e 0 ) in high-income countries have raised concerns about the future of human longevity. To enhance our understanding of these developments, we examine subnational ( N = 450) mortality trends in Western Europe in the period 1992-2019. Between 1992 and 2005, gains in life expectancy were both substantial and widespread. Laggard regions experienced the fastest improvements, yielding rapid regional convergence. Between 2005 and 2019, however, gains in these regions decelerated, while remaining remarkably stable in vanguard regions, suggesting that it remains possible to continue extending longevity. The observed slowing of e 0 gains is strongly associated with mortality at ages 55-74, which increased in this period across large areas of Western Europe, particularly in Germany and France. In this work, we show that monitoring mortality trends at a fine geographical level is crucial for revealing both the potential for, and challenges to, sustainable progress in human longevity. |
| Keywords: | Europe, human geography, mortality changes, life span, life expectancy |
| Date: | 2026–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05481231 |
| By: | Nicolò Barbieri (Department of Economics and Management, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy); Pietro Casavecchia (Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy; Applied Computational Logic and Artificial Intelligence (ACLAI) Lab, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy); Fabio Landini (University of Parma); Giacomo Roberto Lupi (Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy); Alberto Marzucchi (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Giovanni Pagliarini (Applied Computational Logic and Artificial Intelligence (ACLAI) Lab, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy); Ugo Rizzo (Department of Economics and Management, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy; Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy); Daniele Rotolo (Department of Mechanics, Mathematics and Management, Polytechnic of Bari, Bari, Italy; SPRU – Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School, Brighton, United Kingdom); Guido Sciavicco (Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy; Applied Computational Logic and Artificial Intelligence (ACLAI) Lab, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a novel empirical framework to measure the skill content of higher education programmes. Using natural language processing techniques, we link the official descriptions of Italian degree programmes to the ESCO taxonomy of labour-market skills, constructing a high-dimensional skill provision matrix covering more than 48, 000 programme-year observations over 2013–2022. We exploit this skill-based representation in two applications. First, we map the distribution and evolution of green skills across disciplines and territories. Second, we construct measures of programme-level uniqueness and examine their association with first-year enrolment. While abstract skill-based uniqueness is not significantly related to enrolment, a geographically weighted measure—capturing differentiation relative to proximate alternatives—is positively and robustly associated with student demand. The proposed methodology provides a scalable and flexible tool to open the “black box†of curricular content and can be readily extended to a wide range of applications, including the analysis of skill alignment, institutional adaptation, and the evolving geography of higher education provision. |
| Keywords: | Skill Provision; Higher Education; Green Skills; Programme Uniqueness |
| JEL: | I23 I25 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:0626 |
| By: | Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC) (Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC)) |
| Abstract: | Las instalaciones de autoconsumo fotovoltaico (ACFV) han aumentado de forma exponencial en el sistema eléctrico español desde 2021. Estas instalaciones y los sistemas de almacenamiento acoplados a ellas se han beneficiado también de importantes ayudas públicas durante el mismo periodo, las cuales han podido afectar tanto al desarrollo del sector como a la dinámica competitiva en el ámbito energético y en otros mercados. El estudio analiza las diversas ayudas públicas ofrecidas a nivel estatal, autonómico y local en forma de subvenciones, deducciones y bonificaciones. Se evalúa su impacto sobre la penetración del ACFV y, a partir de ahí, se valora su efecto sobre la competencia. Para reforzar la eficacia y los efectos procompetitivos de estas ayudas, así como para minimizar posibles distorsiones competitivas, la CNMC recomienda, primero, reforzar el marco institucional y la coordinación entre administraciones, asegurando que la intensidad de las ayudas combinadas no exceda un determinado umbral, instaurando soluciones de ventanilla única y agrupando incentivos. Segundo, se propone definir las ayudas en términos de cuantías fijas unitarias, así como reevaluar regularmente las áreas prioritarias susceptibles de apoyo público. Tercero, se plantea acelerar el acceso a las ayudas, agilizando su tramitación y la concesión de oficio, ampliando los sistemas de anticipos de subvenciones, concentrando las bonificaciones en el primer año y valorando el uso de instrumentos financieros. |
| Keywords: | Regulación, Competencia, Ayudas públicas, Generación de energía eléctrica, Autoconsumo fotovoltaico |
| JEL: | H23 K23 L52 L9 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awo:epaper:ei/02/2023 |