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on Environmental Economics |
| By: | Borsenberger, Claire; Cremer, Helmuth; Joram, Denis; Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie; Malavolti, Estelle |
| Abstract: | We study environmental policy in imperfectly competitive markets where firms differ in their objectives. Alongside standard profit-maximizing firms, we consider welfare-oriented firms that partially or fully internalize environmental externalities but are subject to financial viability constraints. We develop a Cournot model in which production generates emissions and firms may differ in the extent to which they account for environmental damages. We characterize market equilibria and examine the effects of environmental taxes and output subsidies on emissions, output, profits, and welfare. Our analysis shows that standard Pigouvian prescriptions are modified by the presence of market power and by the break-even constraints faced by welfare-oriented firms. While emissions taxes reduce environmental damages, they may also exacerbate underproduction and threaten the viability of socially responsible firms. Conversely, output subsidies may improve welfare despite increasing emissions. The welfare ranking of policy instruments depends critically on the interaction between environmental externalities, imperfect competition, and firms' financial constraints. These findings suggest that environmental policy design should account not only for emissions reduction, but also for the market structure and sustainability of firms with socially oriented objectives. |
| Keywords: | Environmental policy; Pigouvian taxation |
| JEL: | H23 L13 D62 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21500 |
| By: | Jiang, Chenxi; Lauletta, Maximiliano; Levy, Ro'ee; Shapiro, Joseph S.; Taubinsky, Dmitry |
| Abstract: | Many governments use environmental standards rather than more cost-effective market-based instruments like pollution taxes or cap-and-trade markets. Using a nationally representative survey experiment, we study whether and why limited understanding of economic principles helps explain this practice. Holding environmental impacts constant, respondents prefer standards over market-based instruments, and prefer producer taxes and cap-and-trade over consumer taxes. These preferences reflect consumers’ beliefs about how these policies will affect electricity bills. Respondents also prefer the weakest environmental targets for consumer taxes and the strongest targets for standards, which suggests that policymakers face a tradeoff between policy stringency and cost effectiveness. A separate survey of environmental economists shows that they have strikingly different beliefs about the effects of environmental policies than the respondents in our representative survey. For example, typical respondents—in contrast to environmental economists—believe that environmental standards increase consumer energy bills less than market-based instruments do. Educational videos on pass-through and cost-effectiveness of policies affect policy support and close some of the gap between nationally representative respondents and experts, which suggests that economic literacy is a factor in voters’ preferences. |
| Keywords: | Cap-and-trade; Pigouvian tax; Climate change; Environmental standards |
| JEL: | C83 D9 D83 H23 Q48 Q50 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21443 |
| By: | Carattini, Stefano; Heutel, Garth; Melkadze, Givi; Mourelon, Inès |
| Abstract: | We study how climate policy can interact with distortionary fiscal policy and potentially lead to transition risk. Using an environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that features financial frictions and preexisting labor and capital taxes, we simulate a carbon tax and an abatement subsidy under different scenarios for returning carbon tax revenue or financing the subsidy. We find novel policy implications and important differences between the carbon tax and the subsidy. Under both policies, transition dynamics can differ sharply from long-run outcomes. For the carbon tax, transition dynamics depend on both financial frictions and the choice of revenue recycling. For the abatement subsidy, distortionary financing can generate contractionary transition dynamics, because of financial frictions. Macroprudential policy can mitigate transition risk under the carbon tax but has little effect under the subsidy. |
| Keywords: | Double dividend; Financial frictions; Climate policy; Transition risk; Macroprudential policy |
| JEL: | Q58 G21 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21482 |
| By: | Hanlon, Michelle; Jha, Saumitra; Kala, Namrata; Shroff, Nemit; Weiss, Chagai |
| Abstract: | Despite the large common net benefits of climate mitigation, broad-based political consensus for large-scale policy action remains elusive. We hypothesize that financial exposure to energy stocks central to the green transition can induce learning and greater support for climate mitigation policies. We conduct a RCT which randomizes both the presence of financial market exposure to the energy sector, as well as which type of portfolio — fossil-fuel (brown) or renewable energy (green) — is given to an individual. Treatment increases support for mitigation action and intent to undertake adaptation, with positive support caused by ownership of both green and brown assets. The effects are particularly pronounced among individuals who are initially more climate-skeptic, and persist eight months after treatment. We present evidence consistent with learning as the primary mechanism: treated respondents are more likely to consume financial news and become more financially knowledgeable, less likely to obtain news from polarized sources, and better able to accurately predict the environmental impacts of green and brown firms. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Climate change mitigation support; Financial markets; Climate policy |
| JEL: | Q54 Q48 G11 G41 G53 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21259 |
| By: | Campiglio, Emanuele; Dietz, Simon; Venmans, Frank |
| Abstract: | We study optimal climate policy when the low-carbon transition is constrained by frictions in scaling clean energy and retiring fossil assets. We develop a stochastic, quantitative, intertemporal general-equilibrium model with heterogeneous dirty capital disciplined using firm-level data and adjustment costs disciplined using evidence on historical energy-system expansions and phase-outs. The data reveal an important `dirty tail' of highly emissions-intensive assets that can be retired early at low cost. This means that, despite transition frictions, optimal policy entails rapid near-term decarbonisation, with emissions halving in the first ten years. The transition is not primarily constrained by the cost of stranding dirty capital, but by the rate at which clean capital can be expanded. Our results highlight the importance of modelling heterogeneity in emissions intensity and support policies targeting high-emissions assets and easing clean investment constraints. |
| JEL: | C61 E22 H23 O44 Q54 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21440 |
| By: | Dietz, Simon; Hastreiter, Nikolaus |
| Abstract: | Corporate commitments to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century have proliferated rapidly in recent years. These represent a novel form of corporate climate target, requiring deep decarbonisation under long horizons, uncertainty, and potentially emissions outside firms’ direct control. This paper examines whether adopting long-term net zero commitments is associated with observable changes in corporate climate action in the near term. We overcome measurement challenges by combining multiple datasets on emissions and climate governance, including several novel measures, and we exploit staggered variation in adoption timing using difference-in-differences methods with matching to address selection into treatment. We find little evidence of large or immediate reductions in emissions or of broad shifts in climate governance following adoption. At the same time, emissions estimates are generally negative and consistent with gradual reductions, and we observe selective improvements in more demanding, strategic management practices that often begin prior to formal adoption. Overall, the results suggest that long-term net zero commitments are neither purely symbolic nor immediately transformative, but are embedded within a gradual process of organisational change, with implications for how such commitments are interpreted and designed to support near-term action. |
| Keywords: | Greenhouse Gas emissions; Difference-in-differences; Event study |
| JEL: | M14 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21441 |
| By: | Eva Gossiaux (Paris School of Economics); Mohamed Bahlali (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | Urban low-emission zones (LEZs) are increasingly used to reduce transportrelated air pollution, yet little is known about their long-run general equilibrium effects on the urban spatial structure and their implications in term of pollution exposure. To explore this question, we develop a quantitative spatial equilibrium model with endogenous commuting, transport mode choice and air pollution generated by transport, housing and firms activity. Pollution dispersion is described by an advection-diffusion equation accounting for atmospheric diffusion, deposition, and wind. We apply the model to the Grand Paris Low-Emission Zone and evaluate a long-run counterfactual in which internal combustion engine vehicles are banned from commuting within or through the regulated area. The results show that the policy substantially reduces car use and transport-related emissions. However, endogenous relocation by workers and firms partly offsets environmental gains by shifting economic activity and commuting flows toward more car-dependent peripheral areas, while simultaneously attenuating welfare losses. As a result, partial-equilibrium approaches that abstract from spatial reorganization tend to overestimate both the environmental benefits and welfare costs of the LEZ policy. |
| Keywords: | General equilibrium effects; Low-emission zones; Air pollution; Transport policies; Quantitative spatial equilibrium |
| JEL: | R13 Q53 R41 Q52 |
| Date: | 2026–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2614 |
| By: | Jaume Freire González; Arlet Vila-Bagaria |
| Abstract: | We evaluate the effectiveness of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). Using a staggered difference-in-differences design exploiting variation in adoption timing across countries and phases from 1990–2022, our estimates suggest that the EU ETS is associated with substantial reductions in emissions overall—especially among early participants—although effectiveness varied across cohorts and regions. Later entrants (2008, 2013) showed weaker effects, but disaggregated estimates revealed notable regional reductions. Phase III reforms—tighter caps and expanded auctioning—enhanced performance, cutting emissions by 24MtCO2 annually by 2020. Overall, the EU ETS has become more effective as its design matured but remains insufficient to meet EU's emissions 2030 targets. |
| Keywords: | carbon markets, climate policy, differences-in-differences, EU Emissions Trading System |
| JEL: | D62 H23 L50 Q52 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:1581 |
| By: | Marco Lara |
| Abstract: | En este documento se analiza el vínculo entre comercio internacional y emisiones de Gases de Efecto Invernadero (GEI) en el contexto de la integración entre México y Estados Unidos. Destaca como hallazgo que, desde inicios de los años 2000, México se comporta como un país exportador neto de emisiones hacia Estados Unidos. This document examines the relationship between international trade and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the context of productive integration between Mexico and the United States. A key finding is that, since the early 2000s, Mexico has become a net exporter of GHG emissions to the United States. |
| Keywords: | International trade agrements, Acuerdos comerciales internacionales, CO2 emissions, emisiones CO2, Trade flows, Flujos comerciales, Climate policies, Políticas climáticas, USMCA, TMEC, Global, Global, US, EE. UU., Mexico, México, Climate Sustainability, Sostenibilidad Climática, Working Paper, Documento de Trabajo |
| JEL: | F18 Q56 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bbv:wpaper:2610 |
| By: | Zineb Mesbah (FSJESJ - faculté des sciences économiques, juridiques et sociales d'El Jadida, UCD - Université Chouaib Doukkali, LARGESS - Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion, Economie et Sciences Sociales - FSJESJ - faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales d'El Jadida); Leila Zamouri (FSJESJ - faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales d'El Jadida, UCD - Université Chouaib Doukkali, LARGESS - Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion, Economie et Sciences Sociales - FSJESJ - faculté des sciences juridiques, économiques et sociales d'El Jadida) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how education and training in the green economy can represent a strategic lever for achieving sustainable socioeconomic development in Morocco.The green economy makes it possible to create green jobs, reduce poverty, and strengthen resilience to climate change by encouraging the responsible use of natural resources. In this context, education and training play a major role, not only in raising awareness among younger generations about the environmental and economic challenges facing the country, such as water stress, natural resource degradation, drought, youth unemployment, etc., but also in providing them with the technical skills necessary for sustainable and innovative professions. This contribution is based on a narrative literature review, drawing on the theoretical frameworks of sustainable development and human capital. It aims, on the one hand, to analyze the key role of education and training in promoting the green economy in Morocco, and on the other hand, to identify good practices and formulate concrete recommendations to strengthen green skills. By mobilizing the theoretical foundations of sustainable development and human capital theory, this paper highlights the need for asustainable and inclusive educational model centered on environmental, technical, and entrepreneurial skills.The conclusions show that green economy education and training can significantly promote youth employability, strengthen the country's competitiveness, and accelerate the ecological transition. Recommendations are suggested for better integrating sustainability into education and vocational training in Morocco. |
| Abstract: | Cet article s'intéresse principalement à la manière dont l'éducation et la formation à l'économie verte peuvent représenter un levier stratégique fin d'atteindre un développement socioéconomique durable au Maroc. L'économie verte permet, de façon pertinente, de créer des emplois verts, de réduire la pauvreté et de renforcer la résistance face aux changements climatiques en encourageant l'utilisation responsable des ressources naturelles. Dans ce contexte, l'éducation et la formation jouent un rôle majeur, non seulement pour sensibiliser les jeunes générations aux enjeux environnementaux et économiques que connaît le pays tels que le stress hydrique, la dégradation des ressources naturelles, la sécheresse, le chômage des jeunes..., mais également pour leur fournir les compétences techniques nécessaires à des métiers durables et innovants. Cette contribution repose sur une revue de littérature narrative, mobilisant les cadres théoriques du développement durable et du capital humain. Elle vise d'une part, à analyser le rôle primordial de l'éducation et de la formation dans la promotion de l'économie verte au Maroc; d'une autre part, elle permet d'identifier les bonnes pratiques et de formuler des recommandations concrètes dans le but de renforcer les compétences vertes. En mobilisant le cadre théorique, du développement durable et la théorie du capital humain, cette communication met en lumière la nécessité d'un modèle éducatif durable et inclusif, centré sur les compétences environnementales, techniques et entrepreneuriales. Les conclusions de cette étude montrent que l'éducation et la formation à l'économie verte peut promouvoir significativement l'employabilité des jeunes, renforcer la compétitivité du pays et accélérer la transition écologique. Des recommandations sont suggérées pour une meilleure intégration de la durabilité dans l'éducation et la formation professionnelle au Maroc. |
| Keywords: | Education, Training, Green economy, Sustainable development, Morocco, Maroc, développement durable, économie verte, formation, Éducation |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05440131 |
| By: | Zhou, Peng (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK); Ding, Wenjie (Business School, Sun Yat-sen University); Mazouz, Khelifa (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University); Jin, Shijie (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | Using bibliometric techniques, we classify green bonds literature into three main clusters: (i) asset-pricing research examining green bonds' connectedness with other assets; (ii) corporate-finance studies on the determinants of green bond issuance; and (iii) corporate-finance research on their environmental effects, such as carbon-emission reductions and renewable-energy deployment. Early studies primarily focused on pricing dynamics and market connectedness, whereas recent research emphasizes the intrinsic environmental value of green bonds, particularly their role in financing renewable-energy projects and supporting climate-policy objectives. This review integrates these strands into a unified energy-finance framework. On the theoretical side, we map green bond studies along a spectrum from instrumental to intrinsic value. On the methodological side, we synthesize the principal identification strategies used to address endogeneity, a challenge central to establishing credible links between green-bond financing and energy-transition outcomes. Building on these foundations, we set out a future research agenda that highlights underexplored issues concerning cross-market dynamics during energy crises, the effectiveness of green bonds in accelerating decarbonization, and the policy implications for energy-market regulators. Taken together, our findings provide a structured foundation for advancing research on green bonds within energy economics and climate finance. |
| Keywords: | Energy Transition; Green Bonds; Carbon Markets; Clean Energy Finance; Systematic Literature Review |
| JEL: | G00 G10 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2026/10 |
| By: | Lukasz, Jasmin; Nikolaidi, Maria; Onaran, Özlem |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a conceptual framework for an integrated global, sectoral and gendered analysis of the macroeconomic and social dimensions of the green transition with a focus on three critical aspects. The first concerns the uneven global effects of the green transition. Due to differentiated sectoral structures and positions in the global financial architecture, the transition has highly uneven effects across countries: interconnected global production and financial networks can result in the green transition in the Global North having important adverse macrofinancial effects on Global South countries, particularly those reliant on fossil fuel exports, raising climate justice concerns. The second refers to the environmental footprint of green structural change that extends well beyond direct emissions: resource-intensive green activities, such as electric vehicle production, drive ecological degradation through supply chains in Global South producer countries and reinforce green extractivism, making adaptation and the protection of water, land, and biodiversity central for a just green transition. The third is related to the gendered effects of the transition, which can either intensify or reduce existing inequalities through the impact of the green transition on women’s paid and unpaid work. These effects diverge between North and South due to differences in labour informality, exposure to environmental degradation, and the gender composition of ‘green’, ‘fossil’, and ‘purple’ sectors. Drawing on post-Keynesian, ecological, and feminist macroeconomics, as well as the physical and monetary input-output approaches, the paper develops a framework that emphasises international and sectoral spillover effects, macrofinancial channels and the local-specific gendered effects of green policies through paid and unpaid work. Based on this framework, the paper outlines how the combined use of green and purple policies can reduce global, sectoral and gender inequalities. |
| Keywords: | Green Transition; green investment; global supply chains; gender inequality; macrofinancial effects; green extractivism |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gpe:wpaper:53899 |
| By: | Bas Gorrens |
| Abstract: | Carbon pricing is a central policy instrument for reducing emissions, but governments face a trade-off: faster decarbonization can raise output losses and carbon leakage, while gradual implementa-tion slows emission reductions. This paper studies how EU carbon policies have shaped firms’ adoption of abatement technologies and identifies the optimal trajectory to reach the EU’s 2050 net zero target, particularly in a unilateral context. I develop a dynamic heterogeneous-firm model in which forward-looking manufacturing firms choose when to adopt discrete abatement technologies under a gradually tightening carbon price. I estimate it using panel data on EU ETS firms from 2005-2019. The model rationalizes the low carbon prices of the 2010s as a consequence of gradual policy and firm anticipation. Emission reduc-tions arise mainly from large, productive, and initially polluting firms. Anticipation of future tightening mitigates half of the short-run output losses in 2025 and two-thirds by 2050, keeping overall output losses below 2%. A moderately faster tightening could cut cumulative emissions by 15% at an additional cost of only 0.11% of output. Finally, because firms anticipate future policy changes, unilateral and global carbon pricing yield nearly identical effects on domestic output and carbon leakage. |
| Keywords: | trade and environment, technology adoption, firm decisions, climate policy, carbon leakage |
| Date: | 2025–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ete:ceswps:777266 |
| By: | Bauer, Michael; Känzig, Diego; Rudebusch, Glenn |
| Abstract: | Putting a price on carbon emissions helps mitigate climate change but may also raise overall price inflation. Using high-frequency event studies based on regulatory news in the European carbon market, we show that carbon price surprises generate significant increases not only in energy futures prices, but also in inflation swap prices and breakeven inflation rates. These measures of market-based inflation expectations respond positively at both short and long horizons, with significant effects up to ten years out. Such long-lived inflationary consequences of climate policy are relevant for central banks. However, despite the sustained increases in market-based inflation expectations, forward-looking nominal interest rates show no meaningful response to the carbon policy shocks, suggesting that investors do not anticipate that the European Central Bank will lean against the inflationary effects of higher carbon prices. |
| JEL: | E31 E52 H23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21355 |
| By: | Andréa Poiret (ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon); Pierre Pech (LADYSS - Laboratoire Dynamiques Sociales et Recomposition des Espaces - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8 - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité) |
| Abstract: | Under the mega challenges of climate change and urbanization, natural areas in urban environments gain significant attention. In scientific literature, little attention is given to participatory processes that involve users and local residents in decisions regarding the management of these urban natural spaces. This research presents a multi-dimensional approach based on an integrated urban development project management approach that involves the users and residents of the protected area of the Vidal-Mondelice Park in French Guiana. French Guiana's status makes it an example of a poor territory, marked by stark social contrasts, currently undergoing development. The method, using collaborative governance, centres on understanding the practices and motivations of the local population. Participatory workshops were organized to train users interested in participatory monitoring. A sample of 167 questionnaires was used to assess the approaches to biodiversity and uses of the park. Most users are regulars, with almost 70 % of respondents visiting the site at least once a month. They are more concerned with local issues, particularly services provided, than with more global issues such as environmental issues. The 40 workshop participants facilitated the establishment of participatory monitoring at the site, with forest ecosystem indicators adapted to a participatory approach. This approach demonstrates the effectiveness of participatory processes in developing management methods that incorporate both conservation objectives and the maintenance of uses and amenities. |
| Keywords: | Urban natural area, Social ecological system, Empowerment, Collaborative governance, Participatory processes |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05652022 |
| By: | Khalfan, Ashfaq |
| Abstract: | Dr Ashfaq Khalfan, Director of the Sustainability Regulation Observatory (SRO), based on the report of the Sustainability Law and Policy Clinic (SLPC), produced in response to a research brief provided by clinic partners ClientEarth and in partnership with the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment. The SRO and SLPC are part of the LSE Global School of Sustainability. |
| JEL: | N0 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138868 |
| By: | Alla Semenova |
| Abstract: | Climate change is rapidly destabilizing the US homeowner's insurance system, creating major challenges for policymakers concerned with housing affordability and financial stability. Hurricanes, floods, wildfires, tornadoes, severe hail, and other climate disasters are wreaking havoc on US residential properties, causing billions of dollars in damages, burdening both homeowners and home insurers. As extreme weather events and natural disasters grow in frequency and severity, residential property losses are surging, insurance claims payouts are soaring, and home insurer financial performance is weakening (First Street 2025; Woleben 2024). As climate risks and uncertainty mount, homeowner's insurance premiums are spiking, home insurance protection is vanishing, and coverage availability is dwindling. The United States is now facing a major climate-driven crisis of homeowner's insurance affordability, availability, and protection. This crisis is eroding homeowner financial security, undermining homeownership affordability, fueling a housing emergency, and threatening national financial stability. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:levypn:26-2 |
| By: | Angelo De Santis (University of Naples Federico II); Carla Guerriero (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF); Antonia Pacelli (Toulouse School of Economics and INRAE, University of Toulouse Capitole); Carmine Russo (Vienna University of Economics and Business) |
| Abstract: | We study whether participation in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) reshapes the selection of trading partners, rather than merely raising production costs. A common carbon price works through two opposing channels: a cost channel that discourages trade with regulated countries, and a regulatory-alignment channel that lowers policy uncertainty between co-regulated partners. Combining a gravity framework with a difference-in-differences design over 1995–2020, we find that bilateral imports between EU ETS members rise by about 11 to 33% relative to non-participants (33% in a staggered Callaway–Sant’Anna design) while exports show no net effect. The import premium grows as the carbon price rises across policy phases and, in product-level data, is mostly concentrated in ETS-covered sectors, pointing to regulatory alignment rather than general integration. The results show that common carbon pricing can strengthen trade integration among insiders without necessarily reorienting trade away from unregulated partners. |
| Keywords: | climate club; regulatory alignment; trading-partner selection; carbon pricing; gravity model; emission trading system; carbon leakage. |
| JEL: | C23 F14 F18 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:784 |
| By: | Gian M\"uller; Thomas Sch\"ob; Jann M. Weinand; Iain Staffell |
| Abstract: | Energy policy is often guided by a small set of least-cost pathways to net-zero emissions, despite wide uncertainty in technology performance, fuel prices, demand and weather. To avoid overstating confidence in any single pathway, we quantify the likelihood of alternative technology pathways and identify the assumptions driving divergence, including the conditions under which technologies reach critical tipping points in competitiveness. We couple a sector-linked national optimisation model with Monte Carlo sampling (10, 000 runs) across two European power systems (Germany and Great Britain) to generate probability distributions of capacity expansion and robust cost thresholds for key technologies. Results reveal substantial ambiguity in the future roles of wind versus solar, gas with carbon capture, and negative-emissions options. Tipping points vary widely with system conditions, while cross-country differences highlight the role of institutional constraints and resource endowments. Britain exhibits an either-or decision around nuclear power, investing if costs in 2035 fall below EUR 4700/kW, otherwise favouring offshore wind. Germany's uncertainty centres on dispatchable low-carbon options: gas with carbon capture (below EUR 2100/kW), biomass with carbon capture (below EUR 4200/kW), or hydrogen if electrolysis is below EUR 560/kW. We reframe scenario analysis as risk management by linking uncertainty to cost targets and minimum deployment requirements for robust net-zero strategies. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.16469 |
| By: | Hale, Galina; Halling, Michael; Paulus, Nora; Pham, Han |
| Abstract: | Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees requires that cumulative carbon dioxide emissions remain within a finite remaining carbon budget. How this budget is allocated across countries raises questions of fairness and development. This paper evaluates whether equity-based carbon allocations are compatible with sustained economic growth in emerging and developing economies. We compute country-level fair shares of the remaining carbon budget under the equal-cumulative-per-capita (ECPC) principle. Using data for 162 countries between 1950 and 2023, we then estimate the historical relationship between income and per-capita CO2 emissions across income groups and use these elasticities to simulate cumulative emissions until 2050. Our results show that ECPC implies strongly negative remaining carbon budgets for most advanced economies, while lower-income countries retain positive but constrained allocations. Under historically observed income–emissions elasticities, many developing countries would exceed their fair shares when converging toward advanced-economy income levels. At the aggregate level, unused allocations offset only about 17% of the combined carbon budget shortfall implied by countries exceeding their allocation and the negative fair shares arising from historical responsibilities. In a scenario in which we assume that the technology of advanced economies is transferred to all countries, which would lower emission intensities, we find that some countries such as India, Egypt or Indonesia would now be able to economically develop within their fair budgets. At the aggregate level, however, technology transfer would only increase the carbon budget coverage to approximately 38% and would not fully eliminate the gap. |
| JEL: | Q54 F64 D63 O13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21287 |
| By: | Huybers, Peter; Tabellini, Marco; Taylor, Charles A.; Toti, Francesco |
| Abstract: | What factors drove human migration before modern states, markets, and borders? We develop a framework of ecological sorting in which climate-specific subsistence knowledge depreciates with ecological distance. To test this, we use ancient DNA identity-by-descent segments to construct bilateral migration flows across Western Eurasia over the last 10, 000 years. We document four main findings. First, migration flows decline with differences in growing degree days, precipitation, and soil characteristics between origins and destinations. Second, the dimensions of climate that bind vary across subsistence systems: farmers exhibit strong thermal and soil matching, while pastoralists match most strongly on precipitation---consistent with differential ecological constraints and limiting factors. Third, periods of warming increase farmer expansion while cooling increases pastoral expansion in patterns that recover known archaeological migration episodes. Migration also acts as a margin of climate adaptation: populations exposed to temperature change move to destinations that partly offset the shift. Fourth, genetic flow predicts subsequent convergence in destination vegetation toward migrants’ ecological profiles, consistent with migration shaping landscape change and the demic diffusion of subsistence practices. |
| Keywords: | climate |
| JEL: | N50 O13 Q54 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21495 |
| By: | Azacis, Helmuts (Institute of Economics, Corvinus University of Budapest); Collie, David R. (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | Most game theory models of international environmental policy have the benefits to a country being a function of a country's emissions whereas the costs are a function of global emissions. Obviously, the result is that the emissions of a country impose a negative externality on the rest of the world, and hence that international cooperation through an International Environmental Agreement (IEA) is necessary to solve the problem of climate policy. Here, international trade is added to the simple general equilibrium model of Azacis and Collie (2025). Since an increase in emissions will increase the output of a country, it will also increase exports thereby worsening the country's terms of trade but improving the terms of trade for the rest of the world. Hence, there will be a positive terms of trade externality in addition to the negative environmental externality with the overall externality turning out to be endogenous depending upon the quantity of emissions from the rest of the world. It is shown that the Nash equilibrium (NE) with environmental policies (tradeable permits or emissions taxes) is Pareto efficient when preferences are identical and there is no home consumption bias. In this case there are no potential gains from international cooperation through an IEA. When preferences are symmetric but with a home consumption bias, the NE with environmental policies will not be Pareto efficient and there will be potential gains from international cooperation through an IEA. |
| Keywords: | emissions taxes; tradeable permits; terms of trade; international trade; externalities |
| JEL: | C72 D62 F18 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2026/9 |
| By: | Fabian Scheidegger; Vincent Glatz; Bruno Lanz |
| Abstract: | Using daily police records for 2, 145 Swiss municipalities matched to high-resolution weather data over 2009-2022, we estimate the effect of weather shocks on three categories of violent crime: general, domestic, and sexual violence. Identification comes from daily within-municipality variation in maximum temperature and precipitation, which we exploit in a fixed-effects Poisson regression. On hot days (≥30°C) relative to mild days (10-15°C), offenses rise by approximately 15% for general violence, 18% for domestic violence, and 60% for sexual violence, with the sexual-violence response markedly nonlinear above 15°C. Precipitation reduces general violence but has no consistent effect on the other two categories. As municipalities differ in their exposure to hot days, and projected warming will raise it, our estimates inform the place-based and seasonal targeting of prevention and enforcement resources within climate-adaptation policy in Switzerland. |
| Keywords: | Weather shocks, temperature, violent crime, domestic violence, sexual violence, Switzerland |
| JEL: | K42 Q54 I18 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:26-07 |
| By: | Claire Lepault (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Philippe Quirion (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Pierre Uginet (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | Global warming is having increasingly negative health effects, particularly in relatively poor and hot countries such as India. These impacts are partly due to the direct effect of high temperatures on the human body, and partly due to vector-borne diseases and reduced food availability. While numerous harmful health effects of high temperatures have been established, there is very little research into their possible impact on anemia, a medical condition affecting 25% of the global population and of people in India. Using health, nutrition and climate data, we analyze the relationship between heat exposure and anemia in India over the past decade. We match blood hemoglobin measurements from nearly 265, 000 children, 914, 000 women and 140, 000 men to two different measurements of exposure to heat, based on air temperature and wet-bulb globe temperature respectively. We find that heat exposure in the 30 days preceding blood measurement is associated with anemia in these three population groups. Moreover, the mechanisms responsible do not seem to be related to nutritional deficiencies, while direct effects and malaria could explain part of the relationship between temperature and anemia. Finally, we estimate the number of extra anemia cases induced by a C increase in air temperature, which has an associated cost of around billion US dollars, i.e., of Indian GDP. |
| Keywords: | Disease burden, Health, Anemia, India, Heat stress, changement climatique, anémie, vasodilatateur, maladie transmise par vecteur, hémoglobine, enfant, température, malaria, Inde, épidémiologie |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05654482 |
| By: | Moench, Emanuel; Schaal, Robin |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of extreme weather events on global sovereign bond yields. Using state-dependent panel local projections, we show that the sovereign's fiscal position determines the sign of the yield response to natural disaster shocks. Yields decline significantly in fiscally constrained economies and rise in unconstrained ones, a pattern that remains masked in unconditional specifications. The reason is that government expenditure increases in unconstrained economies and remains flat in constrained ones, generating divergent inflationary dynamics that transmit to the yield curve. The state-dependent transmission operates through different channels. In advanced economies, the yield response is driven by the expected path of policy rates, while the term premium plays a larger role in emerging markets. Our findings highlight fiscal space as a key determinant of how climate shocks propagate through sovereign debt markets. |
| Keywords: | Climate change impacts |
| JEL: | Q54 E62 E52 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21479 |
| By: | Armando Holzknecht; Rene Schwaiger; Esther Blanco; Jürgen Huber; Michael Kirchler; co-authors |
| Abstract: | A carbon price is an effective and cost-efficient policy to mitigate emissions, yet low public acceptance and limited political support remain major barriers to its widespread implementation. This crowd-sourced “many-designs” project presents results from 55 behavioral interventions on real-world support for carbon pricing, independently developed by international research teams. By implementing the interventions simultaneously with almost 20, 000 U.S. residents, this pre-registered study shows very small positive but statistically significant effects of behavioral interventions on real-world support, and stated support, including the willingness to endorse a carbon price that internalizes the social costs of $120 per ton of CO2 emissions (Cohen’s d’s: 10 0.04–0.08; between 1.1–2.4 percentage points in increased support across outcomes). Further-more, the results reveal low-to-medium between-study heterogeneity (ͳ: 0.07–0.12). Lastly, we identify strong overconfidence among research teams regarding the expected effects of their interventions and those of their peers, indicating a miscalibration of community expectations. |
| Keywords: | Meta-science, Behavioral Interventions, Climate Science |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2026-06 |
| By: | Agarwala, Matthew; Burke, Matt; Klusak, Patrycja; Kraemer, Moritz; Volz, Ulrich; Sovacool, Benjamin K. |
| Abstract: | Biodiversity loss and deforestation are increasingly recognized as systemic economic risks. Yet, their implications for financial markets remain poorly understood. Here we study how biodiversity and ecosystem service loss affect financial risk for the world’s largest asset class, sovereign debt. Environmental degradation undermines the natural foundations of economic activity, reducing productive capacity and the ability of governments to service debt. Currently, sovereign credit ratings ignore these risks, meaning that markets may be mispricing, mismanaging and misallocating US$83 trillion of financial assets. We incorporate biodiversity risk into sovereign credit assessments by extending S&P Global’s methodology to include scenarios for future tropical timber, wild pollination and marine fisheries services across 23 countries, representing 5.5 billion people. A partial ecosystem collapse scenario increases annual debt servicing costs by US$49 billion in India, equivalent to 2.4% of median post-tax income, and by US$70 billion in China. Across countries, additional annual interest payments could reach US$162 billion, nearly reaching the US$200 billion per year target for conservation support under the Global Biodiversity Framework. Angola, Bangladesh, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Madagascar could face gross domestic product losses of more than 15% by 2030. Our results suggest that financial markets are systematically underpricing nature-related risks, with consequences for public finances, nature and financial stability. |
| JEL: | J1 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2026–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138871 |
| By: | Simone Ferro; Elena Meschi; Caterina Pavese |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effect of air pollution on primary school students' cognitive performance in Italy, exploiting daily within-municipality variation in pollution across exam dates. Using INVALSI administrative data on the universe of students over ten cohorts and a specification with individual fixed effects, we find that a 10 μg/m³ increase in PM2.5 reduces test scores by 4.4% of a standard deviation. Effects are concentrated in reasoning-intensive items, with no significant effect on knowledge-based items, are stronger for lower-achieving and emotionally vulnerable students, and are substantially mitigated by school mechanical ventilation and air-conditioning systems. These results highlight the cognitive costs of short-term pollution exposure and the potential of targeted infrastructure investments to reduce environmental inequality in education. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, PM2.5, test scores, memory and reasoning |
| JEL: | J01 I1 I2 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12738 |
| By: | Simone Ferro; Elena Meschi; Caterina Pavese |
| Abstract: | We estimate the causal effect of air pollution on primary school students’ cognitive performance in Italy, exploiting daily within-municipality variation in pollution across exam dates. Using INVALSI administrative data on the universe of students over ten cohorts and a specification with individual fixed effects, we find that a 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 reduces test scores by 4.4% of a standard deviation. Effects are concentrated in reasoning-intensive items, with no significant effect on knowledge-based items, are stronger for lower-achieving and emotionally vulnerable students, and are substantially mitigated by school mechanical ventilation and air-conditioning systems. These results highlight the cognitive costs of short-term pollution exposure and the potential of targeted infrastructure investments to reduce environmental inequality in education. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, PM2.5, test scores, memory and reasoning |
| JEL: | J01 I1 I2 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:574 |
| By: | Latansa Izzata Dien Elam (C); Martina Nardon (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | Green bonds have become a key instrument for financing projects with environmental and climate-related benefits, amid the rapid growth of ESG investments across institutional, wealth, and retail investors. While the global green bond market has expanded substantially across both developed and emerging economies, evidence on how equity investors respond to green bond issuances in Asian markets remains limited. This paper examines stock market reactions to green bond announcements by publicly listed firms in Asia over the period 2014–2025. It combines a descriptive overview of green bond market development across major Asian economies with an event-study analysis based on the market model, used to estimate cumulative abnormal returns around announcement dates. The empirical analysis considers heterogeneity across countries, sectors, first-time and repeated issuances, developed and developing markets, sub-periods, and the pre- and post-COVID periods. The results show no statistically significant aggregate stock market reaction across alternative event windows. However, responses vary across countries and sectors, suggesting that equity investors may assess green bond announcements differently depending on the institutional context and the credibility or materiality of the underlying environmental commitment. Overall, the findings indicate that, in Asian equity markets, green bond issuance is generally perceived as a neutral financing decision rather than a systematic short-term value-creating event. The paper contributes by documenting the evolution of Asian green bond markets and by providing baseline empirical evidence on the equity-market implications of green bond announcements in the region. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable Finance, Green Bonds, Stock Market Reaction, Event Study, Asian Markets |
| JEL: | G14 G15 G23 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2026:19 |
| By: | Frings, Nina Leonie; Hahnel, Ulf J.J. |
| Abstract: | Individuals are more supportive of climate policies when they think the measures are fair and effective. This evidence, however, is primarily based on data from Western samples, leaving it open how public effectiveness and fairness perceptions vary across geographical contexts and how they are shaped by regional indicators. Here, we aim to address these questions, investigating climate policy effectiveness and fairness perceptions across four policy types and two policy domains in 15 countries, covering all continents (N=6’052). Effectiveness and fairness ratings varied between policy types and domains, and this pattern was relatively stable across nations. However, individuals in the Global South were overall more optimistic about the effectiveness of climate policies and evaluated them as generally fairer compared to the Global North. Linking psychological and contextual data further shows that effectiveness and fairness perceptions were higher in countries that are more vulnerable to climate change impacts and lower in countries with higher per capita emissions. Moreover, the impact of psychological variables such as climate change concern and political orientation on both outcomes varied as a function of national context. Taken together, our findings point to important geographical asymmetries in the extent to which the public perceives climate mitigation policies as effective and fair, shaped by how much countries contribute to and are affected by climate change. |
| Date: | 2026–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:w235k_v1 |
| By: | Carattini, Stefano; Giustinelli, Pamela; Veronesi, Marcella |
| Abstract: | Knowledge gaps and biased beliefs concerning both climate change and climate policy represent major obstacles to the decarbonization process. Climate education may offer a scalable solution to address such obstacles. In the context of a national reform of the school curriculum in Italy, we implemented a nationwide field experiment, training thousands of secondary school teachers across thousands of schools using a staggered design. Our intervention, a comprehensive course on climate change and climate policy, goes beyond the light-touch interventions typical in the literature. Using extensive survey data, we examine how training affects teachers’ knowledge, beliefs, attitudes, behaviors, and policy preferences and, in turn, those of students. Our study highlights important initial knowledge gaps and biased beliefs about climate change among teachers and students, and provides evidence that climate education can address them at scale. Following our intervention, teachers and students also reconsider their support for climate policies. |
| Keywords: | Climate change and policy; Field experiment; Biased beliefs; Public support; Climate education; Secondary schools |
| JEL: | C93 D72 D83 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21567 |
| By: | Boris Collet (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Matthieu Battistelli (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Camille Lesouef (MHA - Méthodes et Histoire de l'Architecture - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - ENSAG - École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | At a time when mountain destinations must consider their adaptation and transition in response to environmental challenges, this paper examines the case of Les Karellis, a resort in the Savoie region founded in 1975 on a cooperative and associative model rooted in the social tourism movement. Drawing on a critical perspective through the lens of heritage and combining historical and ethnographic approaches to study the material, organisational, and symbolic legacies of the site, the article shows how landscape, social values, and collective governance shape the tourist experience. It also highlights current tensions related to institutional changes, tourism practices, and climate change. |
| Abstract: | À l'heure où les destinations de montagne doivent penser leur adaptation et transition face aux enjeux environnementaux, cette communication examine le cas des Karellis, station savoyarde fondée en 1975 sur un modèle coopératif et associatif inscrit dans le mouvement du tourisme social. Mobilisant une lecture critique par le prisme des héritages et un croisant approche historique et ethnographique pour étudier les héritages matériels, organisationnels et symboliques du site, l'article montre comment paysage, valeurs sociales et gouvernance collective façonnent l'expérience touristique, tout en soulignant les tensions actuelles liées aux mutations institutionnelles, aux usages touristiques et au changement climatique. |
| Keywords: | mountain destination, legacy, social tourism, patrimoine, destination de montagne, héritages, tourisme social |
| Date: | 2025–11–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05644613 |
| By: | Bansal, Trishaa; Feyertag, Joe |
| JEL: | F3 G3 R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138979 |
| By: | Vahideh Manshadi (Yale School of Management, Yale University); Faidra Monachou (Yale School of Management, Yale University); Ilan Morgenstern (Yale School of Management, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | To meet voluntary climate targets, firms often complement internal decarbonization efforts by purchasing carbon credits in the voluntary carbon market (VCM), which finance projects that reduce emissions elsewhere. However, these emissions reductions are difficult to verify, and growing evidence of overcrediting has cast doubt on the VCM's potential to genuinely offset emissions. We investigate how the VCM's defining features shape its climate effectiveness. Our model captures three central elements: adverse selection, as high-quality projects that truly reduce emissions are costlier yet difficult to distinguish from low-quality ones; imperfect third-party certification, as projects are screened based on a noisy signal of quality; and buyer preferences for non-carbon attributes, as some firms value credits that generate observable social or economic co-benefits beyond reducing emissions. We show that the market fails to sustain trade if certification is sufficiently noisy, as quality uncertainty erodes buyer confidence and triggers a market-for-lemons collapse. However, demand for co-benefits can sustain markets that would otherwise collapse. Yet in such cases, the market remains active but yields limited carbon abatement, as most traded credits are low-quality. We then examine policy and market design interventions reflecting recent developments in practice, such as penalizing buyers for greenwashing and offering credit portfolios. We show that these measures can be counterproductive for carbon mitigation if certification remains inaccurate. Accordingly, we demonstrate that the certifier's incentives for accuracy can be strengthened by modifying its fee structure so that its revenue is tied to the market value rather than the volume of credits. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2536 |
| By: | Sultan Mehmood; Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak |
| Abstract: | Why do climate shocks produce conflict (Hsiang et al., 2013)? We study the 1970 Bhola cyclone in East Pakistan, one of the deadliest natural disasters in recorded history, which killed an estimated 350, 000 people. Using satellite imagery, archival records, electoral returns, and insurgent biographies, we show that cyclone exposure amplified pre-existing separatist sentiment at the ballot box and increased citizens’ subsequent participation in guerrilla warfare against the state. Our estimates imply that exposure to the cyclone’s devastation induced an additional 48, 613 insurgents to join the guerrilla war effort. Effects are larger in areas with pre-existing political and economic grievances and weaker relief provision. Our analysis reveals the step-by-step mechanisms through which environmental shocks can produce conflict: they shift voting behavior, expose state indifference, and convert grievance into armed mobilization. |
| JEL: | D74 N45 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35360 |
| By: | Bougioukos, Giorgos; Papaevangelou, Charis; Siapera, Eugenia |
| Abstract: | The EU has called the ‘twin transition’ a win-win strategy for tackling climate change and strengthening its digital autonomy amid geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions. However, high-level policy discourse can hide the material frictions, extractive dynamics, and emerging dependencies associated with implementing this agenda. The paper examines Western Macedonia, a region historically defined by lignite extraction, now transforming into Greece’s post-lignite development hub. Drawing on critical data centre studies and critical political economy scholarship, we trace the emergence of a twin transition industrial complex (TTIC), that is a system of a parallel and interlinked development of renewables and large-scale, often AI-ready data centres. Methodologically, the study combines 12 semi-structured interviews with locals, on-site visits, as well as an analysis of relevant policy and corporate communication documents. We discern four key findings: A) Western Macedonia is transformed into a hub for renewable energy and data centres, which will help Greece integrate into the global AI value chain. B) However, this shift is causing the displacement of locals, especially young people, and creating a ‘limbo’ situation that will lead to social and ecological exhaustion. C) The green transition is also creating ‘green enclosures’ and transforming the landscape by converting land, including historically publicly funded PPC land, into assets for a more exclusionary and extractive digital transformation. D) Despite official narratives portraying Western Macedonia as a ‘Greek Silicon Valley’, locals are excluded from decision-making and governance processes, leading to disillusionment and a sense of hopelessness for the future. Our main contribution is the outlining of an emerging twin transition industrial complex, wherein the twin transition and digital transformation are planned and materialised by state and (Big Tech) capitalist actors according to the imperatives of the AI industry’s global value chains at the expense of local communities and ecosystems. |
| Date: | 2026–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fwynt_v1 |
| By: | Rezai, Armon; van der Ploeg, Frederick |
| Abstract: | We develop a small open economy model with overlapping generations to analyse the macroeconomic, distributional, and political economy effects of unilateral climate policy under an emissions cap. Carbon pricing lowers wages and thus human wealth, while financial assets continue to earn the world interest rate. This asymmetry generates sharp generational and cross country differences: in creditor economies the young lose most, whereas in debtor economies the old bear the heaviest burden as they must reduce their debt when incomes fall. We compare constant carbon taxes with efficient Hotelling price paths and show that delayed implementation dramatically raises the carbon price needed to meet a fixed emissions cap, especially in debtor economies. Hotelling pricing yields substantially lower near term welfare losses. Across all policies, carbon pricing depresses wages, reduces consumption and human wealth, and induces capital flight; labour supply responses differ by asset position. Public debt can be used to secure majority support for climate policy by shifting part of the burden to future generations—more easily so in creditor economies than debtor ones. Since labour tax cuts counteract the wage depression caused by climate policy, less debt is needed to obtain a political majority. |
| Keywords: | Decarbonization; Overlapping generations; Carbon pricing; Employment; Capital flight; Current account; Government debt; Double dividend |
| JEL: | F18 F20 F41 H23 H60 Q43 Q52 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21246 |
| By: | Schoenmaker, Dirk; Schramade, Willem |
| Abstract: | Sustainability transitions expose economies to transition risk, but the share of GDP at risk remains unclear, limiting policymakers’ and financiers’ ability to mitigate stranded assets risk. We develop a two-stage model to quantify GDP exposure to transition risk, combining sectoral carbon intensity with transition preparedness. Applying this to the EU energy transition, we find GDP at risk from transitions ranges from 8% (Sweden) to 43% (Poland), driven by carbon-intensive sectors like manufacturing and power generation. These results are driven less by differences in legacy exposures than by transition efforts. Our model bridges macroeconomic and sectoral transition risks. And it provides both policymakers and institutional investors with a simple toolbox to assess transition risks. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21586 |
| By: | Martin Adler; Stefanie Peer; Antonio Russo |
| Abstract: | Policymakers frequently implement environmental policies that are less ambitious than what voters would prefer. We document this gap using findings from previous research as well as evidence from climate policy in Austria's transport sector. To account for this pattern, we develop a model in which political parties compete with electoral platforms that involve multiple policy dimensions. When voters place greater weight on a primary issue -such as fiscal policy - than on environmental policy, we show that parties may refrain from proposing environmental reforms, even when these reforms enjoy broad public support. This dynamic arises once the primary issue becomes sufficiently salient to voters. We then examine potential ways to overcome this policy inertia, including the use of direct democratic instruments (e.g., referendums) and the delegation of environmental policy decisions from national to regional governments. |
| Keywords: | parties, political economy, environmental policy, transport policy |
| JEL: | Q58 D78 H23 R41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12785 |
| By: | Deletombe, Thibault; Neuhoff, Karsten; Sato, Misato; Matikainen, Sini; Ballesteros, Fernanda; Berghmans, Nicolas; Felsmann, Balázs; Horváth, Gábor; Khelifi, Neila; Rootzen, Johan; Śniegock, Aleksander; Stefańczyk, Aneta; Zetterberg, Lars |
| Abstract: | Europe’s climate ambitions are increasingly shaped by a fragmenting economic and geopolitical environment. Against this backdrop, the shortcomings of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) are becoming ever more apparent. The current design of the mechanism creates circumvention risks, lacks export coverage and is limited to upstream producers. These flaws delay the creation of a level playing field for export-oriented industries, posing significant challenges related to the leakage of carbon emissions and industrial production. This policy brief explores several options for redesigning the CBAM, with a view to the EU’s upcoming market reform of the Emissions Trading System (ETS) in 2026 and the UK’s introduction of its own CBAM in 2027. The authors discuss their findings from a series of interviews on the CBAM conducted by DIW Berlin, CETEx and their research partners. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138847 |
| By: | Mahta Ghafarianghadim; Garth Heutel |
| Abstract: | Many effects of pollution exposure on health and education outcomes of children have been identified, but little is known about education effects on preschool-aged children. We estimate the effect of particulate matter air pollution on preschool attendance using restricted administrative data from the state of Georgia. We use thermal inversions, weather phenomena that trap pollutants, as an instrumental variable for pollution. A one-unit increase in the county-week average ambient particulate pollution level decreases attendance by around 2 percentage points. Effects seem to be larger for racial minorities and for children with working parents. |
| JEL: | I25 J13 Q50 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35367 |
| By: | Tripathy, Dr Sadasiba |
| Abstract: | Because tribal agriculture in Odisha is located at the intersection of rainfed farming, forest dependence, smallholder risk and policy experimentation including in millets, women’s collectives, farmer producer organisations, forest rights, and decentralized procurement. This article examines the sustainability of livelihoods in tribal communities resulting from indigenous farming systems, which is related to market-access and socio-economic constraints affecting livelihood security. The analysis uses secondary data and considers government statistics, peer-reviewed literature, institutional reports, and policy documents using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework and theories around agroecology, indigenous knowledge systems, and market access. The evidence demonstrates that mixed cropping, millet-pulse systems, low-external-input maintenance of landrace seeds, pest and soil management, livestock integration, forest-food systems, among others, enhance natural and social capital, facilitate dietary diversification of house barn, and build ecological resilience at rainfed and upland areas. Despite this potential, a number of factors limit their livelihoods, including: small and fragmented holdings, uncertainty in rainfall, land and forest tenure insecurity, limited irrigation, weak rural roads, inadequate storage and processing, dependence on intermediaries, poor access to institutional credit, gendered drudgery, and inadequate access to extension services. The Odisha Millets Mission/Shree Anna Abhiyan, Agriculture Production Cluster model, self-help groups, tribal livelihood programmes and other recent interventions have facilitated better coordination, aggregation and price discovery in selected locations. However, impact of these interventions is contingent upon last mile infrastructure, procurement timing, working capital, participatory extension and culturally compatible technology. Sustainable tribal agriculture will require more than the promotion of crops. It will require rights-based governance of resources, resilient markets, women-centred skill-saving innovations, community seed systems, climate adaptation, and institutional convergence. The framework of integrated livelihood-market for tribal agrarian development in Odisha has been contributed through the study along with highlighting priorities for future field-based and longitudinal research. |
| Date: | 2026–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mbryz_v1 |
| By: | Bissan Ghaddar; Kimberly Singer Babiarz; Hongbin Li; Lingsheng Meng; Lynn Hildemann; Han Hong; Alvise Scarabosio; Meili Wang; Aprajit Mahajan; Peng Yin; Maigeng Zhou; Grant Miller |
| Abstract: | Ambient air pollution contributes substantially to premature mortality globally, and the effectiveness of policies addressing it depends critically on the shape of the dose-response relationship, which remains poorly understood. Linking hourly air pollution data with daily vital statistics from 251 Chinese cities over four years, we show this relationship depends not only on the mean, but also on the variance of within-period exposure. At a 7-day mean of 150 μg/m³, predicted mortality varies more across observed hourly PM2.5 distributions than across mean exposure differences of 100 μg/m³. The sign of this variance effect also depends on the mean: at low mean concentrations (a convex region), higher variance is associated with modestly higher mortality. At higher concentrations (a concave region), greater variance is associated with lower mortality – implying constant exposure is more harmful than fluctuating exposure for a given mean. These findings reveal important relationships masked using temporally aggregated air pollution data. |
| JEL: | O10 O13 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35428 |
| By: | Konrad Bierl; Klaus Eisenack; Angelika von Dulong; Peter Wieland |
| Abstract: | Do democratic elections affect policy outcomes, and how do these effects evolve over time? Existing evidence is mixed, focusing on federal elections in two-party systems using RDDs. We study municipal elections in Germany’s multiparty system, examining how electoral support for the pro-environmental Green Party affects photovoltaic power capacity investment. Exploiting quasi-random variation generated by staggered elections, we implement a triple difference-in-differences design using panel data (1990-2022). We find strongly time-dependent electoral effects. Electoral support generates sizable short-run increases in capacities (+3.4 MW/municipality), including anticipation effects. These effects reverse in the long-run (-4.2 MW/municipality), primarily driven by less residential capacity. |
| Keywords: | Local elections; Municipal climate action; Renewable energy; Political parties; Triple difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | C21 D78 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–06–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0098 |
| By: | Meissner, Leonie; Burke, Josh; Taschini, Luca |
| Abstract: | Meeting net zero emissions by 2050 will require large-scale deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) — technologies that capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it durably in the Earth’s geosphere. However, the market for durable CDR (methods that store captured carbon for centuries to millennia) is still in its early stages, with limited deployment, high costs and little public data on pricing. To address this evidence gap, the authors of this report analyse a consolidated dataset covering 43 million tonnes of contracted durable CDR across all major methods and geographies. This provides one of the first system-wide assessments of prices and contract volumes. The findings show that a rapid upscaling of CDR deployment is necessary. By the end of 2025, only 1.2% of contracted durable CDR had actually been delivered. Prices for CDR credits remain several times higher than carbon prices in the UK and EU Emissions Trading Systems (ETS) — the markets used to price emissions allowances. Crucially, expected learning rates — the cost reductions typically achieved through doubling of capacity — are very low or even negative for most methods. This suggests the existence of structural bottlenecks rather than technological maturity. As a result, durable CDR costs are unlikely to converge with ETS carbon prices in the near term and may in fact diverge further. These findings have direct implications for the UK Government’s ambition to integrate CDR into the UK ETS by 2029. Carbon Contracts for Difference (CCfD) — long-term government contracts that guarantee a fixed price for carbon removal — will be essential to bridge the gap between current market prices and the cost of CDR. Our estimates suggest that annual subsidy costs could reach approximately US$199 million (around £147 million) between 2028 and 2032 and increase significantly as removal targets scale up. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138706 |
| By: | Chowdhury, Ashfaqul; Garg, Teevrat; Jagnani, Maulik; Mattsson, Martin |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we show that standard approaches for valuing non-market amenities like clean air through defensive expenditures are methodologically fragile. Estimates are highly sensitive to assumptions about household use of defensive technologies, and survey data on usage is unreliable. Moreover, because researchers convert a one-time purchase or willingness-to-pay elicitation into a flow value by dividing by assumed hours of use, lower assumed usage can mechanically imply higher valuations. To address this fragility, we develop a revealed preference approach that estimates the flow value of clean air using high-frequency data on residential air purifier usage in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Leveraging randomized variation in the marginal cost of operation, we recover the households’ trade-off between money and clean air without relying on purchase decisions or stated usage intentions. We find that the marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for clean air is lower and much more tightly bounded than previous estimates. This low valuation is not driven by traditional market frictions like liquidity constraints or misperceptions about pollution severity and technology effectiveness, suggesting limits to environmental policies that rely on sustained complementary household action. |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 O12 I12 D12 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21303 |
| By: | Lars Hornuf; Christoph Merkle; Stefan Zeisberger |
| Abstract: | We provide the first field experimental evidence on how default options influence sustainable investment choices. Using a real-world investment setting that avoids experimenter demand effects and enables realistic estimates of effect sizes, we find that setting a sustainable investment as the default increases adoption from 23% to 36% relative to a conventional default. The effect is stable over time, consistent across investor subgroups, and persists in the long run. A follow-up survey shows that both sustainable and conventional investors expect their chosen portfolios to outperform, yet few are willing to sacrifice meaningful returns for sustainability. Overall, while sustainability preferences matter, investors' decisions remain primarily driven by financial return considerations under realistic market conditions. |
| Keywords: | sustainable investing, field experiment, defaults, robo-advisor, ESG |
| JEL: | G11 G41 Q56 C93 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12733 |
| By: | Bohnet, Marc-Philipp; Carattini, Stefano; Sen, Suphi |
| Abstract: | A recent debate in both academic and policy circles relates to whether financial markets are aligned with long-term climate mitigation goals or rather react to short-run changes in the probability of climate policy tightening – and if so by how much. In this study, we provide evidence from Washington state over five different key political events between 2016 and 2024, including the rejection of two initiatives and one senate bill aiming at implementing carbon taxation, the actual implementation of cap and invest, and the rejection of an initiative aimed at repealing it. We analyze stock market reactions to the ex ante uncertain outcomes of such votes. We leverage events taking place in neutral periods as well as during elections, in particular the rejection and approval of two distinct carbon pricing initiatives, both in conjunction with a Republican presidential victory. Our empirical approach allows isolating the effect of news about carbon pricing. Following each shock, we identify readjustments in the stock market, pointing to short-term reactions to climate-policy risk. |
| JEL: | G12 H23 H71 L50 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21433 |
| By: | Yafei Wang; Marielle Brunette (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Fanny Claise (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | In a context of increasing natural hazards due to climate change, forest insurance is a relevant tool to consider. However, the development of forest insurance schemes varies widely across countries, reflecting differences in forest characteristics, institutional frameworks, and public risk management policies. In this article, we investigate the drivers of this heterogeneity by comparing forest insurance schemes in two contrasting national contexts: France and China. While forest insurance coverage remains relatively limited in France, China has implemented large-scale insurance programs. By examining the design, governance, and role of government intervention in both schemes, we identify the key factors that help explain the differences in insurance uptake across countries. Finally, we discuss innovative insurance products and policy mechanisms that could encourage the adoption of forest insurance. |
| Keywords: | natural hazards, forestry, insurance, insurance forestry natural hazards |
| Date: | 2026–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05551787 |
| By: | Fanny Claise; Marielle Brunette; Rasoul Yousefpour |
| Abstract: | Natural insurance, which is based on the provision of ecosystem services, could strengthen forest resilience and reduce vulnerability to natural disturbances. However, little is known about how forest owners behave with regard to providing this forest function. To address this knowledge gap, this study surveyed private forest owners in four European countries, analysisng their behaviors towards natural insurance. Our multi-step approach uses descriptive statistics, cluster and principal component analyses and logit regressions. Our results reveal significant cross-country differences in terms of natural insurance behaviors. Four profiles of private forest owners were identified: incentive-sensitive, proactive managers, disengaged, and highly engaged. The provision of natural insurance is primarily influenced by the socio-economic characteristics of owners and the attributes of their forest properties, while management practices vary depending on the practice and the country considered. |
| Keywords: | Forest; Natural Insurance; Behavioral typology; Logit |
| JEL: | Q23 Q54 Q57 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-23 |
| By: | Wear, David N. (Resources for the Future); Coulston, John |
| Abstract: | Climate change projections suggest growth in the rate and intensity of forest disturbances such as wildfire and hurricanes. This study compares observed forest mortality and infers economic losses associated with forest disturbance events in eight ecoregions of the eastern United States for the first two decades of the twenty-first century. For each ecoregion, we estimate disturbance rates and their impacts on tree mortality and timber values based on multiple remeasurements of forest inventory plots for two decadal periods ending in 2015 (“period 1”) and 2024 (“period 2”). Using an excess mortality approach, we attribute mortality to either normal stand development or disturbance events in these two periods. We then estimate the losses that would be anticipated in period 2 based on period 1 disturbance patterns and compare them with realized losses. Area disturbed and forest mortality increased between the two periods and in all ecoregions; major drivers were hurricanes in the southeast and insects in the northeast. Total losses from disturbances in the eastern United States grew from $30.8 billion per year in period 1 to $49.5 billion per year in period 2, with substantial variation across ecoregions. In period 2, about 40 percent of disturbance-related losses (~$20 billion per year) were unanticipated based on period 1 disturbance regimes applied to exposed resources. Area disturbance rates and biomass mortality rates are poor proxies for timber value losses that depend on the species/size mix of timber. |
| Date: | 2026–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-26-10 |
| By: | Xu, Mofu |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the association between firm-level climate risk exposure and corporate cash holdings, drawing on transcript-based climate measures constructed from earnings conference calls. These measures track the relative frequency of climate-related bigrams in quarterly transcripts, providing a forward-looking and firm-specific view of climate exposure that distinguishes between overall, regulatory, and physical dimensions. We further exploit the release of the Stern Review in 2006 as a common shock to climate awareness, using it as a conceptual test of whether greater climate salience amplifies the link between firm-level exposure and precautionary liquidity accumulation. Our findings show that firms with higher climate risk exposure maintain significantly larger cash reserves, consistent with a precautionary savings motive. Financially constrained firms exhibit a stronger response than their unconstrained counterparts, reflecting the interaction between climate uncertainty and financing frictions. The results also demonstrate how text-based alternative data derived from managerial disclosures can uncover firm-level climate exposure that aggregate proxies may fail to capture, with direct implications for research in emerging markets where conventional climate data are often limited. |
| Keywords: | climate risk; cash holdings; alternative data; earnings calls; financial constraints; emerging markets |
| JEL: | G31 G32 |
| Date: | 2026–06–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138697 |
| By: | Blazsek, Szabolcs; Dupree, Raven Amina; Escribano, Álvaro |
| Abstract: | Understanding the persistence of climate shocks and the timing of major climate-state transitions is central to both climate science and climate economics. In this paper, we develop an observable-switching fractionally integrated score-driven model with conditional heteroscedasticity, denoted OS-t-FI[d(st)]-QARBeta-t-EGARCH, that jointly models long-memory dynamics, regime changes, and time-varying volatility. The framework combines score-driven filters with regime-dependent degrees of fractional integration and heavy-tailed conditional distributions, providing a robust and information-theoretically efficient approach for analyzing climate time series. We apply the model to the CENOGRID benthic foraminiferal δ13C and δ18O records covering the last 67.1 million years at 5-kyr resolution. Milankovitch orbital variables (i.e., eccentricity, obliquity, and precession) are incorporated as exogenous controls to account for low-frequency astronomical forcing. Model-comparison results show that the proposed regime-switching fractionally integrated specification outperforms benchmark score-driven and non-switching models according to likelihood-based criteria. The estimated fractional-integration parameters vary across climate regimes, with both regimes exhibiting persistent long-memory dynamics and one regime approaching unit-root behavior. The results provide evidence that Cenozoic climate evolution is characterized by changes in the strength of persistence. The regime dynamics broadly support previously identified climate-state boundaries near 56, 47, 39.7, 34, 13.9, 10, and 3.3 million years ago (Ma), while also suggesting potential additional subdivisions near 58 and 17 Ma. Our findings imply a hierarchical structure of climate evolution in which major climate states contain internally distinct dynamical subperiods. These results matter for long-horizon climate-risk modeling used in energy economics because they indicate that climate persistence and uncertainty vary systematically across climate states. |
| Keywords: | Long memory processes; Fractional degree of integration; Dynamic Conditional Score (DCS); Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS); Score-driven regime-switching models; 67.1 million-year climate data |
| JEL: | C22 C51 C52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:50313 |
| By: | Suvy Qin; John Voorheis |
| Abstract: | Flooding is among the most salient natural hazards facing households in the United States. A large body of evidence has documented a pattern of disproportionate social vulnerability in floodplains. However, little evidence exists on how household-level exposure to flood risk is distributed. We fill this gap by combining parcel-level flood risk with confidential linked survey and administrative data held at the US Census Bureau. Although net migration to Census blocks in floodplains has increased in recent years, there has been essentially no net migration to parcels with flood risk or change in the overall share of households living in floodplains. Income gradients in flood risk are highly non-linear at the household level, with slightly negative income gradients for the bottom 90 percentiles of the income distribution that are dwarfed by disproportionate exposure in the top decile, especially when considering multiple property ownership. This nonlinearity is largely driven by differences in building type and homeownership within narrow income groups. In contrast to the conclusions in the literature using aggregate data, our household-level analysis suggests that households in floodplains are less disadvantaged and increasingly protected from the impacts of flooding, even as a vulnerable subpopulation of low-income, uninsured homeowners remains. |
| Keywords: | Flooding, environmental inequality, homeowners insurance |
| JEL: | Q54 R21 D31 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-37 |
| By: | Parisa Pakrooh (Department of Economics, Management and Statistics-DEMS, University of Milano-Bicocca); Fabio Gaetano Santeramo (Department of Sciences of Agriculture, Food Natural Resources and Engineering, University of Foggia); Giuseppe Maggio (Department of Economics, Business and Statistics, University of Palermo) |
| Abstract: | Weather shocks increasingly threaten agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the negative effects of drought on production have been documented in numerous studies, the behavioral dimension of adaptation, particularly how households perceive drought and what shapes these perceptions, remains less explored. The study focuses on Uganda to distinguish between self-reported drought (subjective) and data-driven drought (objective) and how their divergence is associated with agricultural outcomes. The study relies on four waves of household surveys (UNPS for 2009/10, 2010/11, 2011/12, and 2013/14) with historical re-analysis data on temperature and precipitation from 1981 to 2015. Log-linear and logit models are applied to estimate the association between drought, perception, and household characteristics on production and drought perception formation. Objective drought is negatively associated with total value of production. Subjective drought perception has a positive association with production. Self-reported drought captures differences in households’ behavioral responses or preparedness, rather than observed weather shocks. Households that underestimate drought conditions tend to exhibit lower production outcomes, while households reporting a drought when this is not observed in objective data tend to maintain their production levels. Access to the Drought Early Warning System (DEWS), technology adoption, higher education levels, farming experience, and greater off-farm assets are positively associated with higher production. Conversely, lower production is associated with a higher share of female labor, female-headed households, and poverty. The results highlight the importance of distinguishing between perceived and observed drought and improving households’ access to timely information to plan adaptation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Drought perception, objective drought, agricultural production, Uganda, early warning systems, climate change adaptation |
| JEL: | Q01 Q12 Q16 Q54 O13 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2026.19 |
| By: | Paola Ferretti (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Maria Bruna Zolin (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Erica Da Ronco (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | The research question aims to present the current state of the CE in NUTS 2 regions within France and Italy, top circularity performers in the EU, aiming to highlight the relationships and patterns among the reduce, reuse, recycle and socio-economic indicators used to describe the circular economy, and to identify opportune instruments/policies to keep materials and products in circulation for as long as possible and to ensure sustainable development. This necessitates the definition of new development models and leads to decision problems in the public sector. To achieve this, understanding the socio-economic and environmental situation of a territorial area is vital. Using Eurostat indicators and considering disposal and recovery facilities' numbers, a composite index (Waste Index) is identified and used as a decision attribute, alongside sustainability indicators as conditional attributes within the Multi-Attribute Analysis framework. This way, relationships and patterns are expressed as decision rules. Specific indicators in the decision rules, especially in the "reduce" analysis, like fertilizers and water-induced soil erosion, are crucial. Surprisingly, in the "reuse" analysis, the number of businesses for repairing computers and vehicles appears infrequently. When considering economic and social aspect, attributes like broadband access and tertiary education play significant roles in decision rules, while the employment rate never appears. |
| Keywords: | Circular economy; Dominance-based Rough Set Approach; Waste Index; Regional disparities; Economic, Social and Environmental Sustainability |
| JEL: | Q21 Q32 Q56 P48 R58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2026:18 |
| By: | Carattini, Stefano; Matter, Ulrich; Roesti, Matthias |
| Abstract: | The ability of private interests to influence the political process is an important topic in economics and political science. While some of these efforts appear as campaign finance and lobbying expenditures in the official record, private interests may also engage in “covert†influence through media capture. In this paper, we systematically examine whether and to what extent corporations in the United States with an interest in slowing climate action, such as Big Oil companies, might have used corporate advertisement in media outlets as a strategic tool to align such outlets’ coverage with their views. We find that advertising spending by such actors (i) increases during election periods and (ii) implies both lower and more skeptical-leaning coverage of climate change and climate policy. |
| Keywords: | Lobbying; Advertising; Media capture; Climate policy |
| JEL: | D72 D83 L82 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21489 |
| By: | Menegat, Martina; Després, Morgan |
| Abstract: | From a banking perspective, the climate insurance protection gap is broader than its traditional insurance-focused definition. As physical climate risks intensify, banks can be materially affected through unavailable or inadequate insurance coverage, with potential impacts on financial stability. Such risks include slow-onset changes, acute hazards and related indirect damage. This policy insight examines the impacts of the insurance protection gap on the banking sector, focusing on property and casualty insurance at the global level. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138889 |
| By: | Linsenmeier, Manuel; Groom, Ben; Roth, Sefi |
| Abstract: | Econometric studies of temperature and GDP imply that warming harms hot countries, benefits cool ones, and that a single globally optimal temperature exists. We show that such aggregate relationships mask substantial spatial and sectoral heterogeneity and can mislead mitigation and adaptation policy. Using administrative district-level data for Europe on Gross Value Added (GVA) and GDP growth, we estimate the contemporaneous effects of temperature at national, district, and industry scales. In contrast to earlier global studies, warmer-than-average years reduce growth in relatively cold districts (0–14°C) and raise it in warmer regions (>14°C), with the pattern reversing at the extremes ( 20°C). This U-shaped relationship implies an average effect across Europe of -0.19 percentage points on annual growth, rather than the +0.18 benefit reported previously. Under RCP4.5, annual growth falls by 0.20 to 1.24 percentage points by 2070–2099, highlighting local temperature optima and heterogeneous vulnerabilities both within countries and across regions and sectors. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–06–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138373 |
| By: | Andrews-Speed, Philip |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138553 |
| By: | Dietz, Simon; Modirzadeh, Seyed Alireza; Amin, Ali; Jahn, Valentin; Sinclair, Maxim |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138836 |
| By: | Alejandro Arciniegas Herrera (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal effect of food insecurity on Venezuelan emigration to Colombia using municipal-level panel data for 2010–2023. Exploiting exogenous variation in crop losses via an instrument that interacts drought intensity with 2007 agricultural production, I show that a one percentage-point increase in food insecurity raises the emigration rate by 4.2 percent on average. A 10 percent drop in crop yields increases food insecurity by 0.56 percentage points, implying a 2.4 percent rise in the emigration rate. Reduced-form evidence indicates that drought shocks mattered only after the 2014 food import collapse, showing the role of local agricultural fragility in the broader political crisis. Responses are strongest in municipalities with low crop diversity, a larger oil sector, intermediate levels of development, and a higher share of rural land. These findings provide the first causal evidence that hunger operates as a major push factor in contemporary emigration from developing countries and high-light that climate adaptation and food security policies are critical to reducing forced migration |
| Keywords: | Agriculture; Climate Shocks; Drought; Food Insecurity; International Migration; Venezuela |
| JEL: | F22 Q18 Q54 O13 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:26007 |
| By: | Li, Yang; Ahuja, Ketan; Daryanani, Karan; Hausmann, Ricardo; Yıldırım, Muhammed A. |
| Abstract: | The energy transition offers countries that can manufacture clean energy technologies substantial opportunities for sustainable economic growth. This paper provides a framework for context-aware industrial policy by applying economic complexity theory to a newly constructed dataset of twelve key clean energy supply chains (CESCs). We find that CESCs are diverse but highly interdependent; they are also growing faster and are more concentrated than other industries. CESCs exhibit substantial entry, exit and competitive churn, and countries are more likely to enter CESC industries that are related to their existing productive capabilities. We also explore changing global competitiveness and country positioning in these industries, and draw out implications of these patterns for industrial policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Industrial policy |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21561 |
| By: | Carbone, Sante (Central Bank of Ireland); Hale, Galina (Central Bank of Ireland); Beck, Roland (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | Multinational enterprises respond to more stringent climate policymaking by redirecting some of their manufacturing foreign direct investment (FDI). This reallocation is more pronounced in countries hosting affiliates in the most carbon-intensive segments of manufacturing. We study the transmission of an unexpected tightening in climate policy and find that multinationals expand affiliate assets in emerging markets, which are characterised by less stringent climate policies. These adjustments persist for up to four years. Pharmaceutical multinationals represent a notable exception to this pattern. Potentially owing to the large fixed costs and highly specialised production processes that characterise the sector, these firms do not meaningfully reallocate FDI in response to shifts in climate policy. In line with this finding, foreign-owned subsidiaries in Ireland do not exhibit a significant contraction in assets or employment when their parent companies abroad face higher climate policy costs. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:stafin:6/si/26 |
| By: | Barrio Castro, Tomás del; Escribano, Álvaro; Özer, Yeliz; Sibbertsen, Philipp |
| Abstract: | Long paleoclimate time series combine strong persistence, multiple orbital-scale periodicities, and structural changes across climate states. These features complicate the statistical analysis of deep-time proxy records, since common spectral peaks do not necessarily imply stable relationships between variables. We analyze Cenozoic climate variability using the Cenozoic Global Reference benthic isotope record over the last 67.1 million years. The cleaned and interpolated δ18O and δ13C series are studied in a regime-based setting, with segments defined by major Cenozoic climate-state transitions to investigate if a stable coupling occurs between the isotope proxies and Earth’s astronomical variables. The analysis combines long-memory estimation, sequential frequency identification, frequency-adapted unit-root and stationarity testing at zero and harmonic frequencies, and cyclical fractional cointegration. This allows us to distinguish zero-frequency persistence from persistent cyclical behaviour and to test whether shared cyclical frequencies correspond to stable frequency-specific relationships between the proxies and orbital reference variables. The results show that the proxy series are not well described by a simple stationary versus unitroot dichotomy. Instead, they exhibit persistent long-memory dynamics with pronounced cyclical structure. Shared spectral peaks occur across several climate-state segments, yet only selected frequencies support stable fractional cointegration. Thus, isotope proxies and orbital reference variables may overlap spectrally without necessarily forming a stable longmemory relationship. A key finding is that the additional split at the Eocene–Oligocene transition reveals a change in the frequency-specific relationship between δ18O and δ13C. Before the transition, stable fractional cointegration is associated with an orbital-scale band, whereas after the transition it shifts toward multi-million-year variability. This points to a substantial reorganisation of the frequency-specific coupling between the oxygen- and carbon-isotope records after the transition. |
| Keywords: | CENOGRID; Cyclical fractional cointegration; Deep-time paleoclimate |
| JEL: | C32 Q54 C22 |
| Date: | 2026–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:50302 |
| By: | Yasmina Rufine Karambiri (UJZK - Université Joseph Ki-Zerbo de Ouagadougou = University of Ouagadougou, iEES Paris - Institut d'écologie et des sciences de l'environnement de Paris - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - SU - Sorbonne Université - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Elodie Robert (LETG - Nantes - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - LETG - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - IGARUN - Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Humanités - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Dayangnéwendé Edwige Nikiema (UJZK - Université Joseph Ki-Zerbo de Ouagadougou = University of Ouagadougou); Christine Lamberts (ESO - Espaces et Sociétés - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - IGARUN - Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Humanités - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Fabrice Gangneron (GET - Géosciences Environnement Toulouse - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNES - Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EPE UT - Université de Toulouse - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse); Laurent Pourinet (LETG - Nantes - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - LETG - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - IGARUN - Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Humanités - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Emma Rochelle-Newall (iEES Paris - Institut d'écologie et des sciences de l'environnement de Paris - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - SU - Sorbonne Université - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Rural populations have lower rates of access to adequate drinking water and sanitation than their urban counterparts, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. This situation puts these populations at risk of diarrheal diseases, the severity of which is modulated by factors related to socio-health vulnerabilities. We used the livelihoods framework and its capital-based approach to study socio-health vulnerabilities in rural Burkina Faso. The objective was to identify the most vulnerable households and compare results at village and health area levels. A quantitative and spatial survey was conducted on 272 households in the municipality of Boussouma (Bagré, Centre-East region of Burkina Faso). Bivariate analyses, multiple correspondence analyses (MCA) and ascending hierarchical classification were used to identify socio-health vulnerability profiles. 43% of households, reported at least one episode of diarrhea among their members during the 12 months prior to the survey. A total of 24 variables were retained for MCA, broken down into four capitals: physical capital (type of water resource, quantity, accessibility and distance, functionality of hydraulic structures), financial capital (means of transport and financial capacity to pay for water), human capital (access to sanitation, hygiene measures, and population knowledge) and social capital (social behaviors concerning water points and rules of access). Five socio-health vulnerability profiles were identified and spatialized. The least vulnerable profiles are affected by human capital deficiencies, and the most vulnerable by a combination of deficiencies in the four capitals dominated by physical capital. Targeted WASH interventions, installation of drinking water points, access to water and health care, construction of sanitation infrastructure to eradicate open defecation and, strengthened hygiene awareness campaigns, could considerably reduce socio-health vulnerabilities. However, access to drinking water, sanitation and health care depends on households characteristics (financial resources, knowledge, practices) and structural and political inequalities that shape access, which constitute embedded power relations, as our study reveals. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05648800 |
| By: | Fenske, James; Haseeb, Muhammad; Kala, Namrata |
| Abstract: | Formal rules within organizations are pervasive, but may be interpreted and implemented differently by actors within the organization, impacting organizational outcomes. We consider a delegation reform that changed formal rules within the environmental regulator in an Indian state, by giving decision rights to junior officers over certain types of application. Using novel data on firms' environmental permit applications and internal communications within the regulator, we study how the delegation of formal authority affects its actual allocation, the consequences for applicant firms, and the circumstances that lead senior officers to withhold this authority. The change in decision rights led to greater approval rates for applicant firms. However, only two thirds of applications that should have been delegated according to the rules were actually delegated. We show that senior officers chose to retain decision rights over more difficult applications, namely, applications with higher pollution potential. Furthermore, baseline disagreement with more junior officers' recommendations reduces delegation pre-reform, and officers facing a higher backlog of applications are more likely to delegate. These results are consistent with a framework where the allocation of decision rights is determined by a knowledge hierarchy and where different senior officers face varying costs of delegation at different times. |
| Keywords: | Delegation; Authority; Environmental regulation; De jure power; De facto power |
| JEL: | O13 Q5 D73 D23 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21260 |
| By: | Modirzadeh, Seyed Alireza; Davies, Ella; Fitzpatrick, Meghan; Sinclair, Maxim; Jahn, Valentin; Dietz, Simon |
| Abstract: | The TPI Centre Transition Planning 2026 report assesses the transition plans of 22 large publicly listed companies in the oil and gas and diversified mining sectors. The report applies the TPI Centre's Net Zero Strategies (NZS) assessment frameworks to evaluate how companies plan to deliver emissions reductions across their businesses. It conducts detailed assessments of companies’ decarbonisation strategies, including by analysing decarbonisation levers (the key actions companies plan to take to decarbonise), evaluating the alignment of those actions with low-carbon scenarios, and examining capital expenditure and investment planning. In doing so, the report sheds light on the credibility, investability, external dependencies and transition readiness of corporate transition plans in these sectors. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138888 |
| By: | Ashok Gulati (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations); Subhodeep Basu; Bidisha Banerjee; Laxmi Sharma |
| Abstract: | India's transition to clean energy is gaining momentum, but agriculture-despite being a major land and energy user-has yet to fully participate. Agri-PV, the co-location of solar panels and agriculture on the same land, offers dual income streams for farmers through crop cultivation and energy sales while optimizing land use. The report examines Agri-PV's evolution, business models, and scalability in India, including two in-depth case studies of farmer-owned PM-KUSUM plants (a 4.5 MW plant in Madhya Pradesh and a project in Rajasthan) that demonstrate economic feasibility alongside hurdles such as payment delays and regulatory fragmentation. It concludes that scaling Agri-PV requires flexible business models, clear policies, viable financing, and stronger inter-agency coordination. |
| Keywords: | Agri-PV, solar energy, farmer income, PM-KUSUM, renewable energy, agrivoltaics, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:26-r-23 |
| By: | Ban, Cornel; Hasselbalch, Jacob; Larsen, Mathias |
| Abstract: | Sustainability transformations depend on ambitious state action. We propose green economic planning as a framework for states to set ambitious climate plans and ensure policy coherence across three dimensions: inputs (sources of information, planning directors, and political regimes), processes (technical expertise and political negotiation), and outputs (monetary-financial, fiscal, and state ownership strategies). To capture how green economic planning works across democratic and authoritarian institutions, we conducted a comparative case study of three countries. France’s intersectoral non-green and Denmark’s sectoral green planning covers democratic institutions, while China’s intersectoral green planning covers authoritarian institutions. Through these cases, we show that 1) green economic planning is both feasible and adaptable across diverse political economies, 2) effective planning requires balancing decentralized information flow with strong central coordination, 3) successful planning depends on managing tensions between autonomous planning agencies, market discipline, and long-term political legitimacy. We term this ‘directed entanglement, ’ positioning it as a cornerstone for the emerging research agenda on green economic planning—a blueprint for navigating the use of the state to steer a green transition under capitalism.n analytical framework of elite and resistant imaginaries to trace how these actors construct competing futures of platform labour in EU regulation. These imaginaries transpire in response to the reorganisation of labour relations amidst the digital transformation of socioeconomic institutions. They reveal how platform infrastructures challenge institutional boundaries and reshape the governance of work in the EU. Through a qualitative methodology that combines critical thematic and discourse analysis of stakeholder submissions, the study investigates the frictions that transpire when elite and resistant imaginaries encounter one another. The inductive framework of ‘elite’ and ‘resistant’ imaginaries of platform work illuminates the strategic negotiation of categories and its evolution throughout the policymaking process. The research contributes to scholarship on digital labour and the governance of platforms and algorithmic systems within the EU by offering a critical communications account of how competing imaginaries interact within the regulatory infrastructures of the digital economy. The central empirical contribution of the project lies in re-situating regulatory arbitrage through the analytical lens of elite/resistant imaginaries and discursive friction. The analysis demonstrates how BusinessEurope takes advantage of longstanding techniques of regulatory escape, such as burden shifting and legal fragmentation, and combines them with the systemic structural asymmetries within the European single market to incentivise lenience for platform self-governance models and soft law (Scharpf, 1999). By analysing digital transformation and status classification, the thesis demonstrates how the future of the platform labour economy is co-constructed through frictions that culminate in a sophisticated arbitrage strategy, organised around the ontological construction of the platform as an ‘intermediary’ (Gillespie, 2010). The next chapter discusses the conceptual map of regulatory arbitrage in the PWD as a critical output of the research and considers the limitations of this project, and the future trajectory of trade union discourse on platform work. |
| Keywords: | green state; economic planning; directed entanglement; China; France; Denmark |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138455 |
| By: | Gorgulu, Nisan; Vagliasindi, Maria |
| Abstract: | This study makes a significant contribution to the expanding body of literature on the energy-growth nexus, distinguishing itself in two important ways. First, this is the first meta-analysis that systematically compares the economic growth impacts of renewable versus nonrenewable energy sources, instead of relying on aggregate energy indicators. Second, it explicitly explores the heterogeneity of these effects in the context of developing countries. These elasticities exhibit notable nonlinearity, following a U-shaped pattern across stages of development. In low-income countries, the relatively higher elasticity for both energy types likely reflects the critical need to expand access, regardless of the source. As countries move up the income ladder, the elasticity of renewables tends to decline, potentially reflecting short-term frictions and adjustments associated with the integration of intermittent sources, and comes to a plateau for high-income countries. In contrast, fossil fuels may remain essential in higher-income contexts for supporting grid stability and storage as renewable energy becomes more integrated. The findings underscore the need for customized energy policies that correspond to each country's economic development stage. In low-income countries, policies should focus on expanding access to affordable and reliable energy sources. In developed economies, policies should aim to encourage innovations in clean energy technologies and support technology transfer to developing countries, assisting them in sustainably meeting their energy requirements for economic growth. |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11422 |
| By: | Philippe Colo (Oeschger Centre for Climate Research, Univ of Bern & ETH Zurich); Guillaume Pommey (DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | This paper studies communication failure regarding risks in the commons. It argues that strategic issues might explain why years of scientific reporting regarding future risks have failed to trigger sufficient climate awareness. We consider a game of contribution to a public bad, where there is uncertainty regarding the damage generated by externalities. Prior to the game, agents receive non-certifiable information regarding the damage from an informed utilitarian expert. We show that in large-scale public good problems information transmission usually fails. We compare this result with the cases of Rawlsian and anti-Rawlsian experts and discuss the implication for climate expert panels. We also investigate the influence of the value of information in our result, which provides us with some insight on the part played by deontology on scientific communication. |
| Keywords: | Public good games, cheap talk, climate change, values in science |
| JEL: | H41 D83 D62 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:624 |
| By: | Almeida, María Dolores |
| Abstract: | En este documento se analiza cómo la política fiscal puede convertirse en un instrumento clave para enfrentar el cambio climático y fortalecer la protección ambiental en América Latina y el Caribe desde una perspectiva integral. En un contexto de alta vulnerabilidad climática y restricciones fiscales, se necesita una política fiscal que articule ingresos, gastos y financiamiento, y los alinee con objetivos de mitigación, adaptación y sostenibilidad ambiental. En cuanto a los ingresos, se examinan instrumentos como los impuestos y las tasas ambientales, las rentas derivadas del uso de recursos naturales y los gastos tributarios para internalizar los costos ambientales y reducir la dependencia de sectores intensivos en carbono. En materia de gastos, se abordan iniciativas como los subsidios ambientales y la inversión pública verde y resiliente. Con respecto al financiamiento, se estudian instrumentos innovadores como los bonos temáticos y los canjes de deuda por naturaleza. Se subraya la importancia de respaldar estas iniciativas con marcos fiscales de mediano plazo, reglas fiscales flexibles y sistemas de seguimiento y evaluación, que fortalezcan la transparencia y el uso eficiente de los recursos públicos. |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:89992 |
| By: | Hodgson, Benjamin; Waetjen, David; Lemieux, Shannon; Haworth, Lorna; Morris, Laura; Shilling, Fraser |
| Abstract: | Anthropogenic noise and light have been shown to impact wildlife behavior, distribution, movement, and population fitness and survival. Traffic noise and light can inhibit wildlife use of areas adjacent to roads, impair wildlife perception of traffic risks, and cause a barrier effect to wildlife occurrence and movement well beyond road edges. A critical action being taken by states to repair wildlife movement across roadways is construction of wildlife crossings, theoretically providing a safe passage across roads. Planning the location of theses crossings and to some degree their design currently does not take into account traffic noise and light impacts on wildlife approaching the structures. The authors developed statewide models of traffic noise and light intrusion into areas adjacent to state highways to aid understanding of wildlife responses to noise and light and to aid locating and designing crossings to maximize wildlife approach and use. These models have the added benefit of estimating traffic impacts as part of environmental analysis associated with delivering transportation projects. The authors used the NoiseModeling software in QGIS and novel light-modeling tools developed in ArcGIS to model the “noise-scape” and “light-scape” at high-resolution around California state highways. They used different putative sources of traffic noise and light and model propagation (depending on traffic volumes) of both across adjacent landscapes out to at least 1 kilometer. The authors tested the models in the field using transects of noise and light measurements. The outputs were digital (raster) maps that showed the high and low impact areas. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Traffic noise, traffic illumination, wildlife, wildlife crossing |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3kw9n1j0 |
| By: | Simone Voigt (first name last name) (Paderborn University); André Uhde (first name last name) (Paderborn University) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines the relationship between market power and Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) scores of banks in Europe and North America from 2010 to 2021, focusing separately on loan and deposit markets. Employing the Lerner Index as a non-structural measure of market power, our findings suggest that the impact of banking market power on ESG scores varies by region and the respective loan or deposit market. We find a negative effect of loan and deposit market power on ESG scores of European banks whereas the opposite effect can be observed for North American banks exhibiting loan market power. Further sensitivity analyses reveal that factors such as banks being Global Systemically Important (G-SIBs), and different ESG-related events like the Paris Agreement, the reemergence of the #MeToo movement and the COVID-19 pandemic may also explain the relationship between bank market power and ESG scores. Overall, our results underline that banking market power plays a pivotal role in enforcing ESG commitments in banking, offering key insights for policymakers, regulators, and banking stakeholders. (abstract of the paper) |
| Keywords: | Market Power, ESG scores, Eurpean and North American banking markets (keywords) |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:174 |
| By: | Claessens, Stijn; Kapoor, Sony |
| Abstract: | The investment needs to mitigate and adapt to climate change are substantial and especially difficult to finance in emerging markets and developing countries (EMDEs), particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries among them. Guarantees by national and international public entities are often presented as a promising solution, but many estimates of the additional financing they can mobilise rely on unrealistic assumptions. To generate genuine value, guarantees must do more than shift risk mechanically: they must address specific contractual problems, reduce the cost of capital, correct economic and financial frictions, and overcome market failures on either the supply or the demand side of finance. Drawing on theory, recent policy debates, and practical experience, this paper assesses the scope for guarantees in climate finance generally, and in adaptation and mitigation specifically. We argue that guarantees can be more useful than their current scale suggests, but only under more demanding conditions than is often assumed. True additionality requires a different delivery architecture from the one that currently dominates: greater pooling of financial and human resources, simpler and more standardised structures, stronger project-preparation and pipeline systems, wider use of portfolio approaches, greater use of local-currency solutions, and better coordination across specialist guarantors, MDBs, DFIs, and national institutions. Guarantees can play a significantly larger catalytic role, but only when embedded in country-led financing platforms and used selectively alongside concessional finance, especially where adaptation and public-good characteristics limit the scope for purely private mobilisation. |
| JEL: | F63 F64 F65 F68 G28 H54 H81 H87 N5 O16 O19 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21330 |
| By: | Ortega, Fernanda; Snower, Dennis |
| Abstract: | The experience of rapid economic growth and transition to high-income status in Asian countries has brought about significant improvements in material well-being and aggregate economic prosperity. This article examines the degree to which economic prosperity is the “great enabler†of social and environmental prosperity. We provide conceptual reasons why this is not necessarily the case and empirical evidence that the escape from the middle-income trap in three Asian high-income countries – Japan, Singapore and South Korea – was a mixed blessing, linked to challenges regarding social solidarity, personal and collective agency and environmental stewardship. Under these circumstances, traditional prescriptions for escaping the middle-income trap are insufficient. Without success in the social and environmental spheres, social fragmentation and environmental disruption is likely to occur, possibly leading to political instabilities, economic fragmentation and social conflict. This paper investigates this problem for the three Asian high-income countries, based on empirical measures of solidarity (S), agency (A), material gain (G) and environmental stewardship (E) that are consistent through time and across countries. On this foundation, policy recommendations are considered that are meant to run alongside the standard prescriptions to make the resulting package socially and environmentally acceptable. |
| JEL: | O10 O47 O53 I31 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21565 |
| By: | Eric Kemp-Benedict |
| Abstract: | The post-growth literature challenges macroeconomists to devise analytical frameworks targeting human well-being and environmental sustainability, rather than growth. This paper meets this challenge by offering a sub-model for intentional communities – that is, groups of people living together and sharing resources who associate with each other based on their explicit, shared values. The sub-model consists of demographic, stockflow consistent input-output (SFC-IO), and behavioural components. The components are constructed after a selective review of the literature on intentional communities. Among the most important behavioural relationships are the specifications for consumption and investment. Both because of sharing and because of sufficiency-oriented values, consumption per person in communities can be well below that in the broader economy and may grow much more slowly. Investment is guided by the need to cover expenditures and the desire to allocate some time towards shared income-generating activities. While intentional communities are home to a negligibly small number of people today, in a counterfactual future in which they become significant, their very different motivations for consuming and producing can influence macroeconomic trajectories. |
| Keywords: | ecological macroeconomics, post-growth, degrowth, community, stock-flow consistent, input-output, SFC-IO |
| JEL: | E12 I31 P00 Q57 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2616 |
| By: | Ranger, Nicola; Philip, Thea; Tayler, Tom; O'Donnell, Emma |
| Keywords: | critical natural systems; D-SINS; G-SINS; Global Systemically Important Natural Systems; governance; macro-critical systems; SINS |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138880 |
| By: | David Nason; Adam Scavette; Heather Stephens |
| Abstract: | Falling natural gas prices amid the shale boom triggered a sharp decline in U.S. coal production, with over half of Appalachian mines shuttering between 2011 and 2016. In this paper, we use administrative data on mine activity and employment to measure the impact of coal mine closures on local economic outcomes. Using difference-in-differences, we find these closures significantly increased local unemployment and reduced jobs, wages, and output. We estimate a job loss multiplier of 2.0—substantially higher than in previous busts—likely driven by a rising local wage premium that amplified the impact of each lost mining job on the broader regional economy. |
| Keywords: | Coal; Labor Demand; Energy Transition; Natural Resource Shock |
| JEL: | R11 R12 Q31 Q32 Q33 |
| Date: | 2026–06–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:103422 |
| By: | Gilles Dufrénot (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France); Edem Egnikpo (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a dynamic model in which natural disasters affect the accumulation of private wealth, public spending, and output in an economy that is intended to capture salient features of developing countries. The central object of the analysis is the stationary distribution of key macroeconomic variables that emerges in the presence of recurrent, stochastic disasters. Within this framework, we derive analytic characterizations of the stationary distributions of private wealth, government spending, and GDP, and study how their shapes and tails depend on both disaster risk and institutional parameters. Natural disasters affect the economy via two channels. First, the effects on production are transmitted through a demand channel by altering the consumption-savings trade-off of households and thus the proportion of capital that can be invested in capital accumulation. Second, natural disaster shocks also activate a supply channel: they destroy capital and alter the way in which public spending influences total factor productivity. The stationary distributions of capital stock and public expenditure exhibit unusual characteristics such as Pareto laws and upper Gamma distributions. Our stylized model describes key mechanisms in developing countries and allows us to investigate the factors that enhance economic resilience to shocks, as well as those that may render their effects persistent. |
| Keywords: | Stochastic growth; Public spending; Developing countries; Natural disasters |
| JEL: | O11 Q54 E32 O43 |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2610 |
| By: | Antonín Hořčica (Faculty of Economics, University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice) |
| Abstract: | Addressing the gap in regional sustainability monitoring in the EU, this study assesses the applicability of composite sustainability indicator families at the NUTS 2 level and de-velops a methodology for regional variants of the Human Development Index (HDI) family. Nine indicator families were systematically assessed against four applicability criteria: communicability, relationship to GDP, sustainability dimension coverage, and territorial applicability. The HDI family emerged as the only methodologically sound basis for the NUTS 2 sustainability assessments. Four regional indices (R-HDI, R-IHDI, R-GDI, and the planetary pressures-adjusted R-PHDI) were derived from Eurostat and EDGAR data and piloted on 84 NUTS 2 regions across six Central European countries (V4, Germany, Austria) for 2000-2024. Functional data analysis with global envelope tests confirmed that conclu-sions about convergence depend on indicator choice: statistically significant V4 vs DE+AT differences under R-HDI (p = 0, 001) disappeared following environmental adjustment via R-PHDI (p = 0, 487), with emission-intensive regions substantially penalised. The R-IHDI and R-GDI required methodological compromises owing to the absence of microdata at the NUTS 2 level. This study presents the first systematic derivation and empirical application of the full HDI family at EU NUTS 2 level. |
| Keywords: | sustainability indicators, NUTS regions, Human Development Index, functional data analy-sis, European Union, regional development |
| JEL: | C14 Q01 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boh:wpaper:02_2026 |
| By: | Nader Karimi; Foad Shokrollahi |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a climate-aware pricing framework for excess-of-loss (XL) reinsurance contracts and catastrophe (CAT) bonds under non-stationary catastrophe risk. Catastrophe arrivals are modeled as a Cox process whose stochastic intensity depends exponentially on a temperature-related climate index. To represent climate dynamics, the index is modeled as a mean-reverting Ornstein--Uhlenbeck process around a time-dependent warming trend. Within this setting, aggregate losses follow a compound Cox structure with lognormal severities. Pricing is performed under a reduced-form risk-adjusted measure, which provides a tractable valuation approach for XL reinsurance layers and binary zero-coupon CAT bond payoffs in an incomplete market setting. Because catastrophe losses are not dynamically replicable, the framework emphasizes scenario-based valuation rather than model-independent no-arbitrage bounds. A Monte Carlo valuation scheme is implemented to quantify the economic implications of climate-dependent catastrophe intensity. The numerical results show that climate dependence materially changes the loss-generation mechanism and affects the valuation of catastrophe-linked contracts. In the baseline calibration, the climate-aware model increases the excess-of-loss reinsurance premium and lowers the CAT bond price relative to the stationary benchmark. Furthermore, our analysis of the 99.5\% Tail Value-at-Risk (TVaR) indicates that stationary benchmarks may underestimate economic capital requirements by approximately 13.7\% compared to the climate-aware framework, highlighting the potential regulatory relevance of the proposed model. This finding highlights that benchmark design is critical for interpreting climate-pricing effects. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.14830 |
| By: | Laure Ziccarelli (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, G-SCOP - Laboratoire des sciences pour la conception, l'optimisation et la production - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Valéry Merminod (CERAG - Centre d'études et de recherches appliquées à la gestion - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Maud Rio (G-SCOP - Laboratoire des sciences pour la conception, l'optimisation et la production - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | Facing the insufficiency of sustainable development in addressing ecological crises, this paper explores how regenerative design (RD) can support manufacturing industries in creating socio-ecological value. Through a literature review and six expert interviews, we identify and validate a conceptual framework of 14 regenerative design principles structured around four relational dimensions: complexity, the living world, time, and the human role. Although RD is well developed in architecture and urban planning, its application to industry remains nascent. The findings confirm the framework's theoretical primarily robustness while highlighting practical barriers, including limited tools, ecosystem knowledge, and structural constraints. This first phase of an action-research initiative opens the path for testing the framework with industrial teams to assess its relevance and operationality. The study opens on the overlooked role of contractual models in enabling regenerative design adoption, arguing that value creation must be embedded in reimagined incentive structures to achieve net-positive impacts. |
| Date: | 2025–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05644455 |
| By: | Simon, Jenny; Kalt, Tobias; Wissen, Markus |
| Abstract: | European key industries such as the automotive and steel sector have been subject to intense transformation pressure for some time. Intensified international competition and more active industrial policy intervention by national governments and the European Commission are driving process and product innovations with far-reaching consequences, among them significant implications for employment conditions. Alongside digitalisation, decarbonisation constitutes a central development trend. In the automotive industry, this is manifesting primarily as a transition to electric mobility, while parts of steel production are in the process of switching from the emission-intensive blast furnace route to direct reduction of iron ore, ideally using green hydrogen. Both developments are contested and have recently been superimposed by militarisation and a fossil rollback. This working paper analyses the conditions and trends of decarbonisation processes in both industries. It identifies workplace conflicts, workers' subjectivities, and the impact of overarching social and international developments on industrial decarbonisation as an important research desideratum. |
| Keywords: | Decarbonisation, Digitalisation, Geopolitics, Automotive Industry, Steel Industry |
| JEL: | J5 L5 P1 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:341636 |
| By: | Buyukyazici, Duygu; Brossard, Olivier; Boschma, Ron |
| Abstract: | The transition towards a circular economy (CE) represents not only an economic shift but also a profound social and institutional transformation that redefines production, consumption, and policy. This study provides the first macro-level empirical assessment of the CE transition across European regions over the last two decades. It then examines how regional regulative, normative, and cultural–cognitive institutions shape regional CE performance, while also accounting for key confounding factors, including EU cohesion funds, regional autonomy, and the EU Circular Economy Action Plan (CEAP). The results reveal strong spatial and temporal heterogeneity, as well as distinct effects across institutional dimensions. Regulative institutions exhibit the most consistent positive association across and within countries. Normative institutions matter most within major regions, while cultural–cognitive institutions provide more modest support for CE efforts. Importantly, the combination of all institutional pillars is associated with the largest gains in circularity. EU cohesion funds significantly support CE progress, while the post-2015 results suggest that the CEAP reshaped the relative importance of institutional pillars. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of coordinated institutional frameworks and targeted policy support in advancing the regional CE transition. |
| Keywords: | circular economy; circular transition; institutions; sustainability; regions |
| JEL: | Q01 Q50 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138908 |
| By: | Laura Angresius; Milena B\"uchs; Daniel W. O'Neill |
| Abstract: | Current societies face interconnected environmental and social crises. Post-growth research argues that addressing these challenges requires a reorganization of society around the priorities of environmental sustainability, social equity, and human wellbeing over economic growth. While scholars highlight the state's potential role in enabling post-growth transformations through changes from within government institutions, post-growth-minded public officials face tensions between aspiring for radical changes of established structures while working within these structures. To understand how public officials across contexts navigate this tension, we ask: How do post-growth-minded public officials promote post-growth approaches in their work? How do the strategies differ between civil servants and elected officials? What do these strategies reveal about the capacity of the state to advance post-growth transformations? To answer these questions, we interviewed 41 post-growth-minded civil servants and elected officials. Interviews covered seven European countries and local to supranational governance scales. We find that public officials aim to influence thinking and discourses as well as decision-making processes and the implementation of policies. Overall, elected officials tend to feel that they can be more outspoken in their activities whereas civil servants are more inclined to promote post-growth approaches indirectly. Both groups pursue coalitions with various actors within and beyond their institutions. Public officials strategies underscore the limited capacity of the state to advance post-growth approaches under the current growth paradigm. We suggest that cooperation with civil society actors is central to build a sense of collective agency and to foster the interactions between symbiotic and interstitial strategies for post-growth transformations. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.24439 |
| By: | Lydiane Nabec (RITM - Réseaux Innovation Territoires et Mondialisation - Université Paris-Saclay, UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Stephan Marette (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Eva Delacroix (DRM - Dauphine Recherches en Management - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article aims to understand the conditions under which FOP Eco-Score labeling of food products could help consumers to choose greener food products, according to the favourability of the score, its consistency with the nutritional score, and the brand of the product. |
| Keywords: | Labeling, Consumer, willingness-To-Pay, Eco-Label, Eco-Label willingness-To-Pay Consumer Labeling |
| Date: | 2026–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05650081 |
| By: | Giacomo di Tollo; Massimiliano Kaucic; Filippo Piccotto |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a two-stage decision support system for long-short portfolio optimization under environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations. In the first stage, assets are evaluated using a multi-criteria procedure based on TODIMSort, with criterion weights derived using the MEREC (Removal Effects of Criteria) method. This allows assets to be assigned to classes ordered according to preferences that respond to market conditions and investor priorities, thus generating sets of long and short opportunities that dynamically adapt to the prevailing regime. In the second stage, we formulate a non-convex portfolio optimization problem that maximizes the Omega ratio while respecting budget, bound and leverage constraints. To solve it, we introduce an adaptive particle swarm solver equipped with a controller that selects, at each iteration, the most suitable recombination operator from a diverse pool of operators and combines it with a projection-based repair mechanism for constraint management. The empirical study, conducted on 421 stocks in the STOXX Europe 600 index, examines both the exploration capabilities and solution quality of the proposed solver compared to state-of-the-art benchmarks, as well as the ex post profitability of the resulting portfolio strategies. The results show that ESG-enhanced long-short portfolios offer competitive and often superior performance compared to their non-ESG counterparts and the market-value-weighted benchmark. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.25696 |
| By: | Matthew Brown; Mark Brown |
| Abstract: | This article reports experimental estimates of the economic activity at risk in wildfire-affected areas during the 2023 season and in 2024 with a focus on Jasper, Alberta. The paper uses a business-level dataset, burned-area perimeters and evacuation data to determine business operating locations that were likely affected by wildfires from May to September 2023, providing a geographic overview of estimated business sector output that might have been affected. Focused estimates for the regions of Yellowknife, Kelowna, Halifax, Edson, and Jasper are presented. While gross domestic product at risk of being affected by the 2023 wildfire season appears low when measured at the national level, a localized analysis reveals that the effects on local economies are much more pronounced, underscoring the importance of geographic scale in interpreting the economic impact of natural disasters. |
| Keywords: | seasons, wildfire, evacuation |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202500600004e |
| By: | Nassira Werghemmi (USO - جامعة سوسة = Université de Sousse = University of Sousse); Abderraouf Ben Ahmed Mtiraoui (MOFID-Université de Sousse, USO - جامعة سوسة = Université de Sousse = University of Sousse); Mongi Lassoued (USO - جامعة سوسة = Université de Sousse = University of Sousse) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to examine the effects of trade liberalization on economic growth, income inequality, and CO₂ emissions, while also testing for the existence of both social and environmental Kuznets curves. To this end, three econometric models are employed. The first model analyzes the impact of trade openness on economic growth, the second investigates its effect on income inequality, and the third focuses on the relationship between trade openness and CO₂ emissions. The analysis is conducted using panel data for 24 OECD countries over the period 2005-2022. The methodological approach relies on panel data techniques, with estimations carried out using the fixed effects method. The empirical findings indicate that greater openness to international trade has a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth by expanding markets, generating economies of scale, and enhancing productive efficiency in the countries studied. Furthermore, trade liberalization appears to increase income inequality, particularly between skilled and unskilled workers. From an environmental perspective, trade openness promotes the adoption of cleaner technologies, thereby contributing to a reduction in CO₂ emissions. Finally, the results confirm the existence of the Kuznets curve, revealing both U-shaped and inverted U-shaped relationships between GDP, income inequality, and CO₂ emissions within the estimated models. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude vise à examiner les effets de la libéralisation des échanges sur la croissance économique, les inégalités de revenus et les émissions de CO₂, tout en testant l'existence de courbes de Kuznets sociales et environnementales. À cette fin, trois modèles économétriques sont utilisés. Le premier analyse l'impact de l'ouverture commerciale sur la croissance économique, le deuxième étudie son effet sur les inégalités de revenus et le troisième se concentre sur la relation entre l'ouverture commerciale et les émissions de CO₂. L'analyse est menée à partir de données de panel portant sur 24 pays de l'OCDE sur la période 2005-2022. L'approche méthodologique repose sur des techniques de données de panel, les estimations étant réalisées à l'aide de la méthode des effets fixes. Les résultats empiriques indiquent qu'une plus grande ouverture au commerce international a un impact positif et statistiquement significatif sur la croissance économique, en élargissant les marchés, en générant des économies d'échelle et en améliorant l'efficacité productive dans les pays étudiés. Par ailleurs, la libéralisation des échanges semble accroître les inégalités de revenus, notamment entre les travailleurs qualifiés et non qualifiés. D'un point de vue environnemental, l'ouverture commerciale favorise l'adoption de technologies plus propres, contribuant ainsi à la réduction des émissions de CO₂. Enfin, les résultats confirment l'existence de la courbe de Kuznets, révélant des relations en forme de U et en U inversé entre le PIB, les inégalités de revenus et les émissions de CO₂ dans les modèles estimés. |
| Keywords: | Kuznets curve, OECD countries, Internal income inequality, Fixed effects method, Economic growth, CO₂ emissions |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05507882 |
| By: | Raphaël Mathevet (CEFE - Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive - EPHE - École Pratique des Hautes Études - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRD [Occitanie] - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - délégation Occitanie - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier - UMPV - Université de Montpellier Paul-Valéry); Marjorie Tendero (ESSCA School of Management Angers); Cécile Bazart (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier); Aurélien Allouche (RESSOURCE, LTSER-ZACAM - Zone Atelier Santé Environnement Camargue - RZA - LTSER Réseau des Zones Ateliers - INEE-CNRS - Institut Ecologie et Environnement - CNRS Ecologie et Environnement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Chloé Delomel (HSM - Hydrosciences Montpellier - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier, ERT - IMT Mines Alès - ERT - IMT MINES ALÈS - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - HSM - Hydrosciences Montpellier - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | La Camargue est un territoire côtier qui incarne la vulnérabilité sociale et écologique contemporaine. Elle se trouve au cœur de tensions croissantes liées à la gestion des changements climatiques et des évolutions socioéconomiques. Cet article invite à considérer ces tensions non pas seulement comme des conflits d'intérêts mais comme des confrontations entre différentes perspectives et valeurs. En se basant sur une vaste enquête par questionnaire (856 répondants), menée auprès des résidents et usagers du delta du Rhône et en utilisant une analyse de données textuelles mixte, cette étude cartographie les perceptions sociales de la région. Le cadre théorique associe les représentations sociales, la sociologie et la géographie du risque et une approche philosophique et sociologique de l'attachement au territoire. Les conclusions mettent en lumière trois discours clés : un discours sur la Camargue en tant que patrimoine écologique et culturel, un autre sur la Camargue iconique et touristique et un troisième décrivant une Camargue populaire et festive. Les différentes perspectives sur le monde portées par divers groupes sociaux trouvent leurs fondements dans des liens d'attachements qui influencent la perception du risque chez les individus concernés. Il ressort de cette enquête que la résistance aux initiatives d'adaptation aux changements climatiques ne relève pas de l'irrationalité mais plutôt d'une volonté de protéger ses racines face à une menace existentielle. Pour finir, cette recherche argumente en faveur d'une gouvernance axée sur une adaptation transformatrice qui va au-delà de l'approche purement technique pour se plonger dans une réelle négociation sociale des significations afin de co-construire un futur territorial commun. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05657000 |
| By: | Hector Galindo-Silva |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how long-run earthquake risk shapes national identity, separating a distributive margin (national membership as a rule for allocating scarce resources) from an expressive margin (pride, willingness to fight, and affective attachment). Linking World Values Survey respondents (1981-2022; 63 countries, 494 subnational regions) to subnational seismic-risk geography, I find that people living closer to high-risk zones express stronger national in-group orientation: more pride, more willingness to fight, and more priority for nationals when jobs are scarce. Family attachment and out-group hostility do not rise, while religiosity increases in parallel. The expressive margin is conditional: the pride response is pronounced where state-religion alignment and a cohesive religious field lend the symbolic infrastructure to cast disaster as a shared national ordeal, and indistinguishable from zero where they do not. A complementary design exploiting earthquakes between adjacent survey waves finds no average short-run response, yet the response it does detect concentrates among older, place-attached residents who cannot leave -- consistent with attitudes tracking a chronic, inescapable risk rather than single events. Together, the results point to a demand-side origin of national attachment: where a covariate shock would overwhelm local and family insurance, people turn to larger communities of protection and meaning -- the nation and religion -- a logic I formalize in a simple social-interaction model. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.18087 |
| By: | Douenne, Thomas; Lee, Natalie; Treich, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | Meat taxes are unpopular despite meat's environmental, health, and animal-welfare externalities. We study this opposition in a survey experiment with 3, 299 Californians evaluating a meat-tax-and-dividend policy. Respondents watch an explanatory video and receive randomized information and framing treatments targeting economic beliefs (financial incidence, distributional effects, effectiveness) and non-economic considerations (freedom, identity). Opposition is widespread and often justified by freedom and fairness concerns. Information on tax progressivity increases support, whereas information on financial impact or effectiveness does not. Freedom framing has only marginal effects, but identity priming significantly increases opposition, revealing a gap between stated concerns and the factors shaping support. |
| JEL: | C83 D72 D91 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21504 |
| By: | Chris Jeffords (Department of Economics, Villanova School of Business, Villanova University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether implementation of New York City’s congestion pricing program is associated with local changes in ambient PM2.5. I assemble a monitor-hour panel of fixed-site pollution readings across New York City and align each observation to New York local time, allowing treatment status and charged hours to match the program's legal geography and toll schedule. The empirical design compares treated and untreated monitors before and after implementation using difference-in-differences and triple-difference specifications with monitor, date, hour, and date-hour fixed effects, hourly weather controls, and small-cluster inference checks. Across specifications, PM2.5 declines more at legally treated monitors than at control monitors after the charge begins. The association is strongest under the baseline legal treatment definition, remains negative under a broader geographic treatment definition, and is more pronounced on weekdays and during charged hours. These patterns are robust to wild-cluster bootstrap inference and are supported by placebo-assignment counterfactuals that randomly reassign treatment status across the monitor network. Event-study diagnostics, fake-date placebo tests, and donut-window checks further support the timing interpretation while also reinforcing the need for caution. The results do not estimate a full citywide causal effect, nor do they observe traffic volumes, route choices, or individual exposure. They provide early fixed-monitor evidence that implementation of the congestion charge is associated with a relative decline in local PM2.5 at monitored sites most directly tied to the policy's geography and timing. |
| Keywords: | congestion pricing; air pollution; PM2.5; urban transportation; road pricing; New York City; difference-in-differences; triple differences |
| JEL: | Q53 R41 R48 H23 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vil:papers:64 |
| By: | Frings, Nina Leonie; Fenn, Julius; Aeschbach, Samuel PhD (Max Planck Institute for Human Development); Mata, Rui (University of Basel); Hahnel, Ulf J.J. |
| Abstract: | Lacking public support remains a major barrier to ambitious climate policy, yet little is known about how citizens mentally represent specific policy proposals and whether or how these representations change over time. We assessed voters’ cognitive– affective mental models of a real-world climate policy proposal, the 2023 Swiss Climate Protection Law, at two time points preceding a national referendum on the policy. A sample of Swiss voters (N=254) drew their mental models by adding their own cognitive associations and affective evaluations towards the law one month before and immediately prior to the referendum. Opposers were more likely to make reference to financial or personal costs and to rate concepts more negatively, whereas supporters were more likely to make reference to climate and future protection concepts and to rate concepts more positively. While the cognitive associations differed across voter groups, the complexity of mental models, indicated by the number of provided concepts and their interconnectedness, did not. Both opposers and supporters reported more cost-related concepts at the second time point but there was no strong evidence of increased complexity or changes in affective evaluations over time. Crucially, affective evaluations were the strongest predictor of final policy support relative to cognitive associations. These results suggest that while political campaigns may shape the considerations citizens associate with a policy, policy support does not necessarily reflect differences in the complexity of these representations and may be more closely associated with their affective evaluation than with their cognitive content. |
| Date: | 2026–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:az345_v1 |
| By: | Pakrooh, Parisa; Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Maggio, Giuseppe |
| Abstract: | Weather shocks increasingly threaten agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the negative effects of drought on production have been documented in numerous studies, the behavioral dimension of adaptation, particularly how households perceive drought and what shapes these perceptions, remains less explored. The study focuses on Uganda to distinguish between self-reported drought (subjective) and data-driven drought (objective) and how their divergence is associated with agricultural outcomes. The study relies on four waves of household surveys (UNPS for 2009/10, 2010/11, 2011/12, and 2013/14) with historical re-analysis data on temperature and precipitation from 1981 to 2015. Log-linear and logit models are applied to estimate the association between drought, perception, and household characteristics on production and drought perception formation. Objective drought is negatively associated with total value of production. Subjective drought perception has a positive association with production. Self-reported drought captures differences in households’ behavioral responses or preparedness, rather than observed weather shocks. Households that underestimate drought conditions tend to exhibit lower production outcomes, while households reporting a drought when this is not observed in objective data tend to maintain their production levels. Access to the Drought Early Warning System (DEWS), technology adoption, higher education levels, farming experience, and greater off-farm assets are positively associated with higher production. Conversely, lower production is associated with a higher share of female labor, female-headed households, and poverty. The results highlight the importance of distinguishing between perceived and observed drought and improving households’ access to timely information to plan adaptation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2026–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:404199 |
| By: | Tahsin Mehdi; Ping Ching Winnie Chan |
| Abstract: | As Canada and various other countries from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) transition towards a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission economy, there may be concerns about the implications on the jobs and, hence, the earnings of workers employed in GHG-intensive industries. To shed light on this issue, the OECD (2024a, 2024b) examined the impact of job displacement on the earnings trajectories of workers using matched employer–employee data across 14 OECD countries: Canada, Australia, Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, France and Sweden. The study, which Statistics Canada participated in, considered workers displaced from mass layoffs over the 2005-to-2013 period and their economic outcomes six years later. The study defined mass layoffs as a reduction in employment by at least 30% within a given enterprise. The analysis distinguished workers in “high-emission” industries from those in other industries and compared the earnings trajectories of displaced workers with those of their non-displaced counterparts with similar characteristics. The sample was restricted to paid workers aged 18 to 50 with at least two years of tenure before being laid off from enterprises in the commercial sector with at least 30 employees. The effect of job displacement on annual earnings was estimated using an event study model that accounted for differences in worker characteristics. The outcome of interest was annual earnings relative to pre-displacement earnings two years prior to job displacement. The Canadian Employer–Employee Dynamics Database was used for Canada, and these data classify industries according to the North American Industry Classification System. For international comparability, this classification system was converted to the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) system. |
| Keywords: | impact of job displacement, earnings of workers, high-emission industries |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202500800005e |
| By: | Benseny, Graciela; Azcué Vigil, Ignacio; Gordziejczuk, Matías Adrián; Padilla, Noelia Aymara |
| Abstract: | El objetivo del estudio es analizar las características socioambientales y turístico-recreativas del área sur de Mar del Plata, con el fin de identificar su potencial desarrollo turístico y las principales limitaciones para su planificación sostenible. |
| Keywords: | Planificación Territorial; Características Socioambientales; Desarrollo Turístico; Mar del Plata; |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4537 |
| By: | Sharan, Arunima; Martinez Martinez, Juan Pablo; Feyertag, Joe; Kundu, Sujata; Kohli, Renu |
| Abstract: | The growing frequency and intensity of heat stress, excess rainfall, floods and storms may be reshaping the structure of food inflation. These trends challenge a long-standing assumption about inflation targeting: that supply shocks are temporary, idiosyncratic and short-lived. In India and other climate-vulnerable economies, central banks may find themselves managing a structural inflation environment with tools designed for a cyclical one. This policy brief examines the mechanisms through which physical climate impacts transmit into rises in food prices at the subnational level in India, and then into headline and core inflation. The authors provide an empirical foundation for changes to forecasting frameworks, communication and the inflation-targeting architecture that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is already beginning to consider. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138855 |
| By: | Himes-Cornell, Amber; Hoelting, Kristin; Bowser, Lucy; Buonfrate, Chiara; Le Fol, Gwendal; Nelson-Rowntree, Xavier; Rivas, Priscilla |
| Abstract: | Social and economic sustainability indicators are widely used to inform fisheries and aquaculture management, yet there is no common framework for developing, selecting, evaluating, or comparing them. A shared framework would bring coherence to this landscape by supporting the systematic identification of gaps and opportunities to strengthen understanding of social and economic dimensions across both sectors. In response to this need, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the ICES Working Group on Social Indicators undertook a scoping literature review to better understand how social and economic indicators have been used in fisheries and aquaculture management. This article describes the development and iterative refinement of a conceptual classification system, grounded in established sustainability frameworks and refined through pilot testing, that FAO developed to guide the selection and use of social and economic sustainability indicators in these two sectors. The system organizes the diverse concepts represented by indicators in the fisheries and aquaculture literature into a coherent set of categories and sub-categories. It offers a practical tool for evaluating and comparing the conceptual comprehensiveness of existing data collection efforts and for supporting the robust design of indicators in new initiatives. |
| Date: | 2026–06–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:chxmn_v1 |
| By: | Azcué Vigil, Ignacio; Benseny, Graciela; Craig, Elena |
| Abstract: | Se pretende identificar imaginarios influyentes en el crecimiento urbano de los barrios reservas forestales Los Acantilados, Alfar y Bosque Peralta Ramos (Mar del Plata, Argentina). |
| Keywords: | Bosques Urbanos; Reservas Naturales; Desarrollo Urbano; Mar del Plata; |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4539 |
| By: | Robinson, Anya R.; Steren, Aviv PhD; Tal, Gil PhD |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between levels of access to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) at car dealerships in California and rates of ZEV adoption in surrounding areas. ZEV accessibility scores for census tracts—based on available ZEV inventory and proximity to dealerships—correlated significantly with ZEV adoption rates, even after controlling for income, demographics, charging infrastructure, and consumer incentives. Our results suggest that a 1% increase in ZEV accessibility correlated with an increase in ZEV adoption by 0.73% in disadvantaged communities (DACs) versus 0.125% in non-DACs. This indicates a latent demand in DACs constrained by supply-side barriers. Dealership-based incentives positively correlated with local ZEV adoption. Policies that support equitable inventory distribution among dealerships, expanded dealership-based incentive programs, and coordination with charging infrastructure planning may increase ZEV adoption in DACs. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Zero-Emission Vehicles, Underserved Communities, Automobile Dealers, Market Penetration, Supply, Transportation Equity, Policy Analysis |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2c64p237 |