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on Environmental Economics |
| By: | Sofia Aleshina (Universidad de Malaga); Richard S.J. Tol (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Valeriya Ignatovskaya (HSE University) |
| Abstract: | This work presents a modified version of the integrated economic-climate model RICE-CH4. The aim of the work was to expand the basic RICE model by explicitly accounting for methane (CH4) emissions along with traditional carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, as well as the subsequent analysis of the economic and climatic effects of implementing various emissions control strategies. The development was based on the open implementation of RICE in Python using the Pyomo library and the IPOPT solver. The model was modified as follows: a separate methane cycle block was implemented, including both industrial and natural CH4 emissions; the radiative forcing function was adapted taking into account the contribution of methane; a new control variable was built in to reduce CH4 emissions; the logic of two climate policy scenarios, cooperative and non-cooperative, was implemented. In addition, parameterization and aggregation of input data for 12 regions were conducted based on open sources. The model covers key blocks of integrated assessment: the dynamics of capital, investment, savings, production, consumption, and emissions, as well as climate indicators--greenhouse gas concentrations, atmospheric and ocean temperatures, radiative forcing, and climate change damage. Simulations were conducted for the 2025-2115 horizon, and the objective function indicators were calculated. The resulting RICE-CH4 model can be used as a tool for quantitative analysis of climate policy, assessing the social cost of emissions, and sustainable development strategies in a regional representation of global data. A flexible implementation structure provides the potential for future expansion of the model: adding new types of emissions, complicating the country interaction block, and integrating it with external risk and resilience assessment modules. |
| Keywords: | climate change , global warming, methane emissions, RICE model |
| Date: | 2026–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260003 |
| By: | Parisa Pakrooh; Matteo Manera |
| Abstract: | Despite the strong commitment of European countries to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the extent to which key policies and drivers jointly shape emissions dynamics remains insufficiently investigated. To fill this gap, the study investigates the combined effects of the circular economy, energy transition, emissions trading systems, carbon tax, and digitalization on carbon reduction in the EU member states. Using annual data from 2000 to 2023, the analysis integrates causal discovery, time-varying dependence modeling, and machine learning methods to unravel system-level causal structure, dynamic connectedness, and future emission trajectories. The Directed Acyclic Graph method, especially the Fast Adjacency Skewness algorithm, identifies both contemporaneous and lagged causal relationships, in which resource productivity acts as a transmission channel within the system. Lagged disequilibrium shocks propagate from upstream circular economy factor (material footprint) and digitalization to midstream efficiency (resource productivity), and ultimately are transmitted to emissions. Time-varying copula models confirm significant heterogeneity and evolving dependence among key factors, highlighting the nature of the dynamic relationships. Forecasting results, based on a Support Vector Regression model under the European Union’s 2030 climate policy target, indicate a persistently declining emission trajectory, however at an insufficient speed to meet the EU’s 2030 target. Sensitivity analysis indicates that this gap does not reflect a policy failure but the need for accelerated policy adjustments. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Emissions, Energy Transition, Emissions Trading System, Circular Economy, Digitalization, EU Climate Policy |
| JEL: | Q54 Q43 Q58 C55 C32 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:573 |
| By: | Vina Dooshima Kiishi (Graduate School of Management, Postgraduate Centre, Management and Science University Malaysia Author-2-Name: Mohamad Idrakisyah Author-2-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Management, Postgraduate Centre, Management and Science University Malaysia Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - As the global community accelerates its transition to sustainable energy systems to mitigate climate change, Nigeria faces the dual challenge of sustaining economic growth while reducing its dependence on oil. This study examines the role of natural gas as a transitional energy source in Nigeria's journey toward sustainable development, with an emphasis on strategic management, governance, and long-term policy alignment. Methodology - Employing a mixed-methods approach that integrates literature review, secondary data analysis, and semi-structured interviews with policymakers and industry experts, the research assesses the opportunities and constraints associated with natural gas utilization. Quantitative data from the International Energy Agency and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited indicate that, despite substantial gas reserves, domestic utilization remains below 30% of production, owing to infrastructure, regulatory, and market constraints. Comparative analysis of countries such as Qatar, Egypt, and Algeria highlights how coherent governance structures and investment frameworks can enhance gas-sector performance. Findings - The study adopts the Triple Bottom Line (TBL), Energy Ladder Theory (ELT), and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as guiding frameworks, linking management strategies to measurable outcomes, including emission reduction, job creation, and GDP contribution. Findings underscore the need for short-, medium-, and long-term strategies, stronger multi-stakeholder coordination, and proactive risk management to avoid overreliance on gas amid global decarbonization. Novelty - The paper concludes that with effective governance, policy coherence, and investment in innovation, natural gas can serve as a bridge fuel in driving Nigeria's transition toward an inclusive, low-carbon, and resilient energy future. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Natural gas, Sustainable Development, Energy transition, Management, Nigeria |
| JEL: | P51 Q48 O13 Q43 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber276 |
| By: | Donatella Baiardi (Department of Economics and Management, University of Parma); Fabio Landini (Department of Economics and Management, University of Parma); Mario Menegatti (Department of Economics and Management, University of Parma); Ugo Rizzo (Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Ferrara; Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies (SEEDS)); Luigi Tredicine (Department of Economics and Management, University of Parma) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of green-oriented university education on environmental quality, by developing a conceptual framework in which firm emissions depend on the joint use of green technologies and green-skilled labor. In complementarity between these inputs, an increase in the local supply of green-skilled labor induces firms to adopt more green technologies, thereby improving environmental quality. In addition, we show that this effect is stronger in more labor-intensive sectors. Guided by these theoretical insights, we perform an empirical analysis based on a novel measure of green higher education, constructed using administrative data on more than 90, 000 university course descriptions in Italy. We build an indicator of the green content of academic programs using natural language processing techniques and aggregate it at the provincial level to proxy the supply of green-skilled workers. Combining this measure with detailed data on environmental quality, proxied by different types of air emissions, including carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5). We find that a higher supply of graduates with more intensive green skills is associated with significantly lower emissions of key pollutants, including CO2, CO, PM10, and PM2.5. This relationship is robust to a wide set of controls and fixed effects. In line with our model, the association is stronger for service-related emissions than for industrial sources. In general, these findings highlight the role of higher education as a key driver of improved environmental quality through the provision of green skills. |
| Keywords: | Higher Education; Green Skills; University; Air Pollutants; Environmental Quality |
| JEL: | I23 Q51 Q53 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:1026 |
| By: | Sonja Dobkowitz |
| Abstract: | I study optimal implementation of climate targets in a model with distortionary fiscal policy, learning-by-doing, and directed technical change. The key mechanism is that fiscal constraints link innovation policy to labor allocation, creating a tension between directing research and directing learning-by-doing. Analytically, I show that learning-by-doing shapes the effectiveness of carbon taxation in directing research through an expertise effect: carbon taxes are more effective at steering innovation toward green technologies when green expertise is relatively high. Quantitatively, I calibrate the model to the U.S. economy to characterize the optimal policy mix consistent with climate targets. I find that carbon should be taxed heavily, persistently exceeding the social cost of carbon. While higher carbon prices raise green expertise, they induce an excessively rapid reallocation of researchers from fossil to green technologies, generating persistent innovation misallocation. A welfare analysis shows that learning-by-doing substantially amplifies the cost of distortionary taxation, in particular during the transition to net-zero emissions. |
| Keywords: | Second-best climate policy, directed technical change, learning-by-doing, Ramsey taxation, misallocation of innovation, emissions target implementation |
| JEL: | H21 H23 O38 Q54 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2161 |
| By: | Putz, Lena-Marie; von Haaren, Paula; Berger, Axel; Baldrighi, Rafael de Moraes; Pereira, Guísela |
| Abstract: | As the world approaches global warming tipping points, local climate engagement aims at climate actions that are equitable, effective and aligned with local needs. Strengthening and scaling up these initiatives can amplify impact, though efforts are often fragmented and require strengthened coordination. This policy brief identifies barriers and enablers of local climate action, how it is best scaled up, and how international actors - donors, policymakers, city and research networks, businesses and others - can support this process. Building on these insights, the following points outline key conditions for strengthening, scaling up and sustaining locally led climate action: * community-centred co-creation - investing in participatory, culturally grounded processes that map local needs, integrate diverse knowledge, and establish a common language; * predictable, flexible funding - providing long-term resources for locally led climate action, and planning additional finance to scale up solutions, including those involving knowledge sharing platforms and coordi-nation capacity; * private-sector engagement - creating incentives aligned with climate and community priorities, such as collaboration in the development of green products, in facilitating their market access and assisting with certification and value-chain regulations. * multilevel coordination and data sharing - establishing clear institutional pathways, monitoring mechanisms and interoperable data platforms to connect local action with national and international policies, leveraging synergies, and increasing accountability; and * just international partnerships - supporting local and Southern priorities through green development opportunities, ensuring fairness and co-benefits for the partners involved. |
| Keywords: | climate change, urbanisation, local climate action, international cooperation, community-led development, sustainability, sustainable development, SDGs, scaling, climate |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:340850 |
| By: | Epifanio, Daniele,; Ernst, Christoph, |
| Abstract: | Africa faces a dual challenge of persistent un and under- and informal employment—especially among youth and women—and environmental degradation exacerbated by poor waste management. Tailored organic waste management can represent a strong solution to promote both decent work and environmental sustainability. This paper explores how appropriate technologies for managing organic waste can contribute to employment creation and a Just Transition in agrifood systems, particularly in rural and urban settings. The research integrates a desk review with key informant interviews. Identified examples lead to the conclusion that waste-to-agrifood technologies exist along a continuum, ranging from farm-enhancing practices that improve soil health and reduce input costs to income-generating activities that create market opportunities and employment. Composting, biochar production, and black soldier fly farming, among others, illustrate how organic waste can be repurposed into fertilisers, animal feed, and bioenergy, addressing environmental and economic challenges. At smaller scales, they provide direct benefits to smallholder farmers and decentralised communities, while at commercial levels, they create job opportunities downstream and upstream the value chains, from waste collection and processing to specialized roles in biotechnology or logistics. To unlock their full potential in strengthening agrifood systems, creating green jobs, and advancing sustainable development in Africa, competencies development, investments in infrastructure, financial access, as well as social dialogue are essential. An appropriate technology approach could make organic waste solutions more accessible and adaptable to local contexts. |
| Keywords: | waste recycling, technologies, circular economy, employment creation |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995681072802676 |
| By: | Zhang, Yumei; Wang, Jingjing; Ruizeng, Zhang; Sun, Tiantian; Fan, Shenggen |
| Abstract: | Global agrifood systems must undergo a low-carbon transition to achieve Paris Agreement temperature goals. Accounting for 13% of global agrifood systems emissions, China has a critical role to play; yet without further action, China’s agrifood emission will continue to rise, jeopardizing its carbon neutrality commitment. This study employs a mixed-methods approach combining narrative literature review and integrated modelling to: (1) characterize China's agrifood system emissions across the entire value chain, (2) project carbon emissions reduction and carbon sequestration potential under multiple scenarios, and (3) provide lessons for other developing countries. Under the baseline scenario, holding current trends and policies constant, emissions are projected to rise slowly to 1.8 billion tons of CO₂eq by 2060 from 1.6 billion tons in 2021, driven primarily by the expansion of livestock sector and growing energy use. However, our modeling results suggest that a combination of measures, including productivity improvement, adoption of low-carbon technologies, reducing food loss and waste, production structure adjustment and low-carbon energy transition, could reduce emissions by over 60% by 2060 relative to the baseline, while enhancing the carbon sequestration potential to 1.8 billion tons CO₂eq annually. The latter will not only neutralize the emissions from agrifood system but also contribute to the national carbon neutrality goal. These results underscore that synergistic, system-wide interventions substantially outperform isolated measures. China's experience offers valuable reference for other countries in formulating sustainable agricultural policies and pursuing low-carbon transitions. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397899 |
| By: | Mgomezulu, Wisdom Richard; Thangata, Paul; Maonga, Beston B.; Chitete, Moses |
| Abstract: | Orange-fleshed sweet potato (OFSP) is often overshadowed by globally traded cereals, yet comprehensive evidence now positions it as a strategic climate-nutrition asset. We synthesized 618 farm-gate life-cycle observations around the globe to evaluate the environmental consequences of replacing conventional staples with OFSP. Seemingly Unrelated Regression disentangled correlated production decisions and revealed that, per kilogram of edible output, OFSP reduces greenhouse-gas emissions by 28%, blue-water withdrawals by 37%, and land occupation by 31%, even after controlling for fertilizer use, irrigation status, climate zone, and regional effects. Thus, shifting to OFSP would tremendously shrink agriculture’s carbon footprint and turbo-charging vitamin A intake in nutrient-insecure communities. Yet the narrative is not one of blind substitution. First, we note that despite OFSP supplying up to 100% of a child’s daily vitamin A in a 125g serving, its protein density is way lower than that of wheat or maize, imposing implications on amino-acid intake unless legumes or animal sources rise concurrently. Second, we note perishability bottlenecks to feed-grain deficits and test policy levers that turn risks into innovation opportunities. Consequently, crop diversification rather than monoculture substitution emerges as the most holistic pathway in leveraging OFSP’s micronutrient edge while retaining cereal protein. By reframing roots and tubers as front-line actors in sustainable food systems, this research invites policymakers, investors, and farmers to harvest a new synthesis involving resilient livelihoods, healthier plates, and a lighter environmental load, all sprouting from a single, orange root. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397908 |
| By: | Seifert, Stefan; Low, Guy; Kodama, Wataru; Britz, Wolfgang; Heckelei, Thomas; Hüttel, Silke |
| Abstract: | Climate change impacts farms’ risk profiles and farms’ expected returns; yet farms seem to be reluctant to invest into adaption measures. Previous literature suggests that delayed adaptation is due to the real option nature of such investments: irreversibility, flexibility in timing, and (economic) uncertainty. We test these theoretical considerations by empirically examining irrigation uptake among Danish farms. We consider production inefficiency, market and weather risk, and experienced climate extremes as determinants of irrigation adoption behavior. Our analysis uses a panel of 1, 104 farm-level observations from the FADN for 2007–2020 combined with weather, climate and price data. We model farms’ persistent inefficiency using a 4-component stochastic frontier; a panel logit quantifying the effects of inefficiency, climate extremes, and price and weather volatility on adoption. Our results align with predictions from real options theory: higher market uncertainty lowers adoption rates, whereas exposure to extreme drought increases the probability of investing. Results also suggest that crop-market signals matter, suggested by higher adoption rates under greater potato price volatility, indicating anticipatory investment when upside price risk is salient. We find that higher farm-level efficiency is associated with a lower propensity to invest, pointing either to substitution toward other risk-management or yield-enhancing strategies, or to less binding water constraints on already efficient farms. Our current results therefore suggest that additional policy initiatives may be required to foster adaptation levels adequate for expected climate change development. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397875 |
| By: | McVittie, Alistair; Glenk, Klaus |
| Abstract: | Soil natural capital underpins agricultural production and contributes to multiple ecosystem services providing both private and public benefits. The extent of provision of these services depends on an interaction of the properties of soil, its biophysical context, and the management of soils. Changing soil management to deliver multiple services may require additional policy support or participation in ecosystem service markets. A choice experiment assessed the degree of public support for improving different soil ecosystem services. We find public support for improving four soil ecosystem services: improved water quality through reducing nutrient and soil loss, reduced flood and drought risk through reduced runoff, increased soil carbon storage, and increased soil biodiversity. The estimated values were then applied to mapped soil properties data. The results demonstrated spatial patterns of soil ecosystem services benefits indicating where soil natural capital already provides benefits and where measures to improve soil management could be targeted. Relating the results to land capability for agriculture found that except for carbon storage, which was lower in better quality land, ecosystem services could be provided across capability classes suggesting that agricultural productivity and ecosystem services can be jointly provided. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397921 |
| By: | Boy, Karl-Friedrich; Peña-Lévano, Luis; Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe |
| Abstract: | Climate change and evolving regulations in the European Union (EU) place increasing pressure on agriculture to reduce its carbon footprint while remaining economically viable. The Farm-to-Fork strategy positions organic farming as a cornerstone of sustainable food systems, aiming for 25% of EU agricultural land to be organic by 2030. Yet, the economic feasibility of making this transition remains contested. This study provides a robust assessment on changes in farm profitability of transitioning from conventional to organic farming in Germany. Using a uniquely comprehensive large dataset of 1, 048, 139 farm-year observations from 54, 817 farms (between 1995 and 2018), we identify all converting farms and match them to structurally similar nonconverting “twin” farms. A difference-in-Differences framework adapted for staggered adoption and fixed effects estimates the impact of conversion on operating profit. Preliminary results indicate an average post-conversion increase of €11, 580 per year. Effects vary by region and farm type, underscoring heterogeneity in economic outcomes. These findings highlight the complexity of aligning environmental goals with farm-level incentives and demonstrate the value of long-run panel data for evidence-based policy. Further research will refine identification and explore distributional impacts to inform strategies under the EU Green Deal. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397883 |
| By: | Liu, Qi; Hanley, Nick; Yi, Yuanyuan; Xu, Jintao; Kontoleon, Andreas |
| Abstract: | Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) schemes, particularly those involving tree-planting initiatives, are increasingly recognized for their great potential to mitigate carbon emissions and address climate change. Among them, Outcome-Based Payments (also known as results-based schemes) have gained attention for their cost-effectiveness and potential to improve environmental efficiency. This study examines farmers’ preferences towards participating in an outcome-based tree planting scheme using a discrete choice experiment conducted in Yunnan, China. We explicitly incorporate uncertainty in environmental outcomes, which in turn affects payment structures. We also elicit farmers’ risk perceptions through incentivized field lottery games and examine its influence on participation decisions and marginal willingness-to-accept (WTA). Based on a sample of 340 respondents, we find that farmers’ willingness to participate is significantly influenced by contract attributes, including the subsidy level, provision of training and technical guidance, environmental performance requirements, and the degree of uncertainty involved. Our findings further highlight the role of uncertainty and risk perceptions in shaping farmers’ decision-making processes in outcome-based PES. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397897 |
| By: | Rieger, Joerg; Behrendt, Lena; Stepanyan, Davit; Thom, Ferike; Gocht, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This study employs the CAPRI model to assess the single and combined effects of sustainable dietary shifts and carbon pricing in Europe on the agriculture sector, the environment, and international trade by 2035. Adopting sustainable diets reduces animal-based production and lowers GHG emissions, while a carbon tax delivers greater overall emission reductions, mainly through the adoption of mitigation technologies, with 3-NOP feed additives showing the highest mitigation potential. Dietary shifts substantially affect trade flows, as reduced domestic demand for animal-based foods lowers production but increases exports, whereas higher consumption of plant-based foods drives up imports and reduces exports. In contrast, the carbon tax reduces EU competitiveness, lowering exports of emission-intensive products and increasing imports. Regarding economic impacts, sustainable diets slightly decrease EU agricultural income with highly heterogeneous effects across regions, while a carbon tax increases income by 2.8% due to higher producer prices. The combined scenario achieves the largest GHG reductions and highlights strong environmental complementarities. Our findings suggest that policymakers can develop targeted EU strategies that promote sustainable diets and the adoption of mitigation technologies to support EU climate goals and guide a transition toward more sustainable food systems. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397866 |
| By: | Rompani, Hugo; Dogbe, Wisdom; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar |
| Abstract: | To achieve its ambitious climate targets, it is likely that Scotland will have to shift the food consumption of households away from animal proteins. This paper analysed the effectiveness of taxes and subsidies on animal and plant proteins in improving the environmental sustainability of protein consumption in Scotland. It was found that taxes on animal proteins alone struggle to shift consumption towards plant proteins. However, plant protein subsidies achieved dietary shifts toward plant protein categories. The study also highlighted that a blanket tax on all animal proteins, while most effective in reducing total environmental impact of protein consumption, could result in significant negative nutritional and distributional outcomes; thereby reducing the tax’s viability as a policy option. The study concludes that a combination of select taxes and subsidies, along with a mix of alternative policy options, are best suited to shifting Scottish diets in a more environmentally and socially sustainable direction – however, to achieve the Climate Change Committee’s dietary recommendations a mixture of policy levers will likely be required. The study used 2021 home scan data from Kantar Worldpanel and the Exact Affine Stone Index demand system to estimate Marshallian elasticities for protein categories in Scotland. These were used to simulate a range of ad valorem fiscal policy scenarios, which were then evaluated for their impact on greenhouse gas emissions, land use, nutritional intake and welfare. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397887 |
| By: | Loughrey, Jason |
| Abstract: | The agricultural sector in Ireland is facing increasing societal pressures for improvements in environmental sustainability with emission targets based on progress from 2018 to 2030. In this context, the relationship between the farm income distribution and the distribution of emissions is underexplored. The Kakwani index is applied to compare the distribution of farm income and the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland between 2018 and 2023. Concentration indices are used to measure inequality in emissions over the distribution of farm income. Data are based on the Teagasc National Farm Survey. Results show that farm income is more unequally distributed than greenhouse gas emissions. Concentration index curves show that low-income farms are accounting for a declining proportion of GHG emissions. For the dairy farming system, in particular, policy efforts need to continue to pursue widespread adoption of environmental technologies for the entire population of farms. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397917 |
| By: | Kim, Pyung (University of California, Santa Barbara) |
| Abstract: | This study exploits South Korea's unique dual-policy framework to evaluate the comparative effects of carbon pricing and command-and-control regulation on firm-level environmental performance. Using a difference-in-differences design with firm-level panel data from 2011 to 2022, I compare outcomes between firms regulated under a command-and-control program (Target Management System, TMS) and those subject to a market-based carbon pricing mechanism (Emissions Trading Scheme, ETS). The results show that ETS-regulated firms reduced energy use by approximately 5.8% to 8.8% and carbon emissions by 7.3% to 8.5% across model specifications. However, the effects on carbon intensity were inconsistent. Event-study analyses suggest that these differing effects are driven by the heterogeneous timing of firm responses: immediate but short-lived reductions in energy use, persistent declines in carbon emissions, and gradual improvements in emissions efficiency. Phase-specific estimates further indicate that more market-oriented ETS phases were associated with stronger reductions in carbon emissions and intensity, underscoring the role of incentive-based policy design in enhancing environmental outcomes. |
| Date: | 2026–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ac4wb_v1 |
| By: | Adam, Nasir |
| Abstract: | This study examines farmers’ preferences for fossil-based and fossil-free mineral nitrogen fertilisers as part of efforts to decarbonisation agricultural inputs, using a labelled discrete choice experiment among 211 Swedish crop, dairy and mixed farmers. Fertiliser alternatives are characterised by three attributes: price, climate impact, and production origin. Preferences are analysed using a mixed logit model to capture continuous heterogeneity and a latent class choice model to identify discrete farmer segments. Results show that higher fertiliser prices reduce choice probabilities, while farmers exhibit substantial willingness to pay for fertilisers produced in European Union, United Kingdom and Norway and, in particular, in Sweden (their domestic market). Farmers continue to choose conventional mineral fertiliser over the opt-out alternative even when its climate impact increases. This indicates the central role of mineral nitrogen fertiliser in crop production rather than a preference for higher emissions. Two distinct farmer segments emerge: a larger group that trades off price with production origin and climate attributes, and a smaller group that is primarily price sensitive. In addition, social and economic identities significantly explain membership in the dominant segment, whereas environmental identity plays a more limited role. The findings reveal that farmers trade off price against production origin rather than climate impact: they are willing to pay substantial premiums for supply-security consideration (Swedish fertilisers), but not for reduced climate impact alone. The results suggest that decarbonisation policies in fertiliser markets may be more politically and economically viable when embedded within broader supply-security and preparedness frameworks rather than framed solely as climate premiums. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397891 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Europe's green transition risks strategic fragility. Critical material dependencies, geopolitical tensions, and industrial limits could undermine climate ambitions and autonomy. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Constraints, Green supply chain, Vulnerability, Europe |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05608270 |
| By: | Brot, Robert; Curzi, Daniele; Palma, Alessandro; Russo, Simone; Pallante, Giacomo |
| Abstract: | The increasing intensity of extreme weather events poses a major challenge to agriculture by undermining crops growth conditions. This is particularly critical for wine production, where the quality of wine strongly depends on crops’ life cycle. Such changes create significant difficulties for wine farms, especially those operating under Geographical Indication (GI), which, as a matter of fact, imposes restrictions on the farms’ productivity. Against this background, the existing literature has overlooked the extent to which the limits imposed by these policies affect farms’ adaptation capacities to extreme weather events. The objective of this study is to empirically analyse the effect of extreme weather events on farm-level productivity, focusing especially on PDO wine farms in Italy. Preliminary results, capturing the short-term effect, indicate the higher crop’s losses for PDO vineyards. These findings serve as a pivot point for further reflection on long-term impacts, measuring the adaptation capacity among PDO wine farms. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397888 |
| By: | Samarasinghe, B K D J R; Yuchun, Zhu; Abeynayake, N R; Wanninayake, R W W M P K |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of seasonal climate on rice yield in Sri Lanka and uses district-level panel data covering the period from 1979 to 2024. Yala and Maha seasons are considered separately, and a fixed-effects Spatial Durbin model with a queen contiguity matrix is used to capture both local and spatial spillover effects. In the Yala season, spatial spillovers are predominant: increases in harvested area boost local yields, but expansion into neighbouring districts reduces yields. Significant positive spillovers stem from minimum temperature and rainfall in adjacent districts, while the interaction of rainfall extent shows negative spillovers. Although most individual weather variables have insignificant direct effects, their total effects are positive and significant, reflecting the overall influence of climatic conditions across the spatial system. In the Maha season, rice yield is mainly influenced by local factors: harvested area and rainfall have notable positive direct effects, with minimal spillover effects from neighbouring districts. Night-day humidity differences negatively impact local yields. Cross-seasonal spatial models show that rainfall in the earlier Maha season positively affects Yala yields, and humidity differences in the Yala season negatively affect the next Maha season rice production. Our estimates indicate that climatic variations in one season can affect another season, underscoring the need for seasonal, spatial interdependencies considerations for policy-making and implementing climate adaptation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397923 |
| By: | Fu, Qifan (The University of Osaka); Sasaki, Masaru (The University of Osaka) |
| Abstract: | This study comprehensively assesses the effects of exposure to temperature extremes on workplace health, safety, and economic outcomes. Using Japanese prefecture-level data on work-related injuries and fatalities (2014-–2019) combined with weather records, we estimate that higher temperatures significantly increase work-related injuries and their associated social costs. When exposed to temperature extremes, workers neither reduce their working hours nor exit the labor force. Furthermore, testing the compensating wage differential model reveals minimal wage increases for exposure to temperature extremes. These findings highlight the need for effective policies to mitigate the adverse effects of temperature extremes in the workplace. |
| Keywords: | extreme temperatures, defensive investment, work-related injuries, climate change adaptation, compensatory wage differentials |
| JEL: | J28 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18592 |
| By: | Iovleva, Ekaterina; Stepanyan, Davit; Gocht, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Nutrient pollution in EU agriculture is highly uneven, with the strongest pressures concentrated in regions with intensive livestock production and high nitrogen (N) inputs. This discussion paper evaluates the environmental and economic effects of a spatially targeted N-surplus tax using the CAPRI partial equilibrium model for 2035. First, a multi-indicator framework is applied to identify agricultural pollution hotspots at NUTS2 level. Based on gross N surplus, total N input, mineral fertiliser input, nutrient use efficiency, and livestock density, 35 hotspot regions are selected across the EU. Second, four tax scenarios are simulated, ranging from €250 to €1000 per tonne of N surplus, applied only in the identified hotspot regions. The results show that the targeted tax reduces total EU N surplus by 5.0% to 6.8% and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 10.4 to 13.6 Mt CO2eq relative to the baseline. The strongest responses are observed in Belgian, Dutch, and other intensive production regions. Adjustment mechanisms differ across regions, but mainly include lower mineral fertiliser use, lower livestock density, and, at higher tax levels, greater uptake of mitigation technologies. Production effects at EU level remain moderate, while some redistribution of N pressure occurs towards non-targeted regions. Of the 35 initially identified hotspot regions, a maximum of 4 were removed from hotspot status under the simulated policy scenarios, while no new hotspots were created. The findings suggest that a targeted N-surplus tax can be an effective instrument for reducing nitrogen pressure in hotspot regions, but additional policy measures will likely be needed to deliver a broader and more durable solution. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397904 |
| By: | Dillon, Emma Jane; Doyle, Noel; Moran, Brian |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397901 |
| By: | Tablang, Solomon; Bitonio, Josefina; TOLEDO, RALPH RENDELL (Government Procurement Policy Board-Technical Support Office) |
| Abstract: | Agricultural cooperatives are widely recognized as important institutional actors in advancing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly in agrarian and rural economies. This study examines the initiatives, services, and constraints of agricultural cooperatives in relation to the SDGs in Region I of the Philippines. A mixed-methods design was used, combining a structured survey of officers from 30 medium and large agricultural cooperatives with selected semi-structured interviews to provide context for the quantitative findings. Descriptive statistics were employed to summarize cooperative profiles, services, and SDG-aligned practices, while cross-tabulations were used to examine differences in governance, climate- and resource-related, and market challenges by cooperative size. The findings show that most cooperatives are medium-sized and long-established, with lean staffing structures and moderate asset bases. Core services remain concentrated on credit provision and commodity distribution, while higher-value activities such as processing and mechanization are less common. Cooperatives implement a wide range of initiatives aligned with multiple SDGs, with the strongest engagement observed in poverty reduction, food security, decent work, and partnerships. These contributions, however, are constrained by persistent challenges related to governance, limited access to finance, market competition, and environmental and climate risks. Medium-sized cooperatives report greater vulnerabilities in governance, environmental pressures, and market access than larger cooperatives, which, despite greater resilience, face more pronounced bureaucratic constraints. Overall, the results point to the need for profile-sensitive interventions that strengthen governance, expand access to finance and markets, and improve the integration of environmental sustainability into cooperative operations. Addressing these areas can enhance the capacity of agricultural cooperatives to contribute more effectively to inclusive and sustainable rural development and to the achievement of the SDGs. |
| Date: | 2026–04–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6cd87_v1 |
| By: | Elsässer, Joshua Philipp; Fuhr, Harald; Fünfgeld, Anna; Lederer, Markus; Marquardt, Jens; Banerjee, Aparajita; Yi, HyunAh |
| Abstract: | Renewable energy has seen rapid uptake, particularly in the Global South. Solar energy projects have boomed in recent years, but uptake by countries is uneven. Beyond geophysical conditions, technological innovation, market dynamics and donor-driven "lighthouse projects", political institutionalisation has played a critical role in decarbonisation. In this policy brief, which is based on extensive research from Global South case studies, we argue that political institutionalisation is key to determining whether and how innovative solar initiatives become stabilised, scaled up, and mainstreamed. Drawing on the research project Institutionalizing Low Carbon Development in the Global South (INLOCADE) and expert contributions from a follow-up IDOS workshop, this policy brief synthesises comparative policy-relevant findings on how institutionalisation unfolds in various emerging economies of the Global South, including Brazil, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia and South Africa. Key messages: * Political institutionalisation - understood here as an enduring change of formal and informal rules and practices towards low-carbon development - is essential for making renewable energy projects sustainable by embedding them in conducive, stable governance frameworks. Isolated, donor-driven initiatives are at risk of provoking resistance and backlash, and of fading away once external support ends. * Multiple pathways for institutionalisation exist. State leadership, subnational action, alliances between development partners and communities, and crisis-driven coalitions can enable institutionalisation under different conditions. Policies should be tailored to the institutional realities of each context rather than using one-size-fits-all models. Similarly, development partners should assess local realities and adapt their strategies accordingly. * Distributive justice and participation must be actively supported. Political institutionalisation can lead to inequitable outcomes and reinforce exclusionary practices. Development partners should take a proactive role by aligning their interventions with inclusive and equitable approaches to ensure support for marginalised groups leads to socially just transitions, not just box-ticking. * Crises can be opportunities. Energy shortages and climate shocks can disrupt fossil-fuel lock-ins and open the door to innovation. Development partners need flexible instruments and strategies to help translate crisis-driven experiments into durable institutional change. * Development partners are catalytic, not deci-sive. They can accelerate change by providing finance, technical expertise, and legitimacy, especially when working with domestic actors beyond national governments. German and EU development cooperation should place greater emphasis on strengthening domestic institutional enviro-ments, including regulatory stability, administrative capacity, and actor coalitions that embed projects in lasting policy and organisational change. This helps ensure donor interventions contribute to sustained low-carbon transitions beyond initial project cycles. |
| Keywords: | Agenda 2030, energy, development financing and public finance, climate change, climate change mitigation, Global South |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:340851 |
| By: | Toman, Michael A. (Resources for the Future); Lohawala, Nafisa (Resources for the Future); Shih, Jhih-Shyang (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are widely viewed as essential in the near-to-medium term for significantly reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the aviation sector. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has set a goal of net-zero aviation emissions by 2050, and several jurisdictions—including the European Union and United Kingdom—have adopted policies mandating increasing SAF use. The United States has several tax breaks available to SAF producers. See Lohawala et al. (2026) for an overview of SAF policy frameworks in the United States and other jurisdictions. Despite these policy signals, however, SAF production remains far below the scale required to meet ICAO’s longer-term emission-mitigation targets (ICAO 2025a).Several technological pathways exist for producing SAF. One emerging option is ethanol-to-jet (ETJ), which converts ethanol derived from biomass into jet fuel through a series of chemical processes. Because ethanol production is already well established—particularly in the United States—ETJ has attracted attention as a pathway that could expand SAF supply in the near-to-medium term. Companies such as LanzaJet (which began operating the first commercial-scale US ETJ facility in 2024), Gevo, and Summit Next Gen are pursuing ETJ.Lohawala (2026) examined the potential role of corn-based, or “first-generation, ” ETJ in SAF markets by comparing it with the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathway—the most established SAF technology today—which converts lipid feedstocks, such as vegetable oils and animal fats, into jet fuel. That analysis identified several factors that have drawn interest to ETJ relative to HEFA. First, lipid feedstocks are limited and already face competing demand from renewable diesel and other markets, raising concerns about long-term availability. By contrast, US corn-based ethanol production occurs at large scale, supported by extensive agricultural supply chains and processing infrastructure, creating the possibility of expanding SAF production by leveraging an established industry. Such expansion may also become more relevant for ethanol producers if demand for ethanol in road transportation declines as electric vehicles gain market share. The analysis also noted that ETJ may be more cost-competitive, in part because corn feedstocks are typically less expensive than vegetable oils.However, the analysis highlighted an important challenge: the life-cycle carbon intensity (CI) of corn-based ETJ. CI is a central metric in SAF policy because many programs worldwide condition eligibility or credit values on the estimated CI of a fuel relative to fossil jet fuel. The CI for corn-based fuels can be substantial, reflecting emissions from fertilizer use, farm energy, ethanol processing, and potential land-use change in crop production. The potential role of corn-based ETJ as a low-carbon aviation fuel depends on the extent to which its CI can be reduced without sharply increasing production costs.We examine how this CI-reduction challenge could be addressed by focusing on emissions-reduction strategies that the literature identifies as having relatively large mitigation potential across the ETJ supply chain. Although these strategies can lower emissions, they also introduce additional costs and infrastructure requirements that create barriers for scaling up ETJ. |
| Date: | 2026–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:ibrief:ib-26-03 |
| By: | Bauckloh, Michael Tobias; Kirsch, Paula |
| Abstract: | We study the green bond premium, defined as the yield differential between green and matched conventional bonds in the secondary market. Existing estimates vary widely, raising questions about their robustness. We address this by estimating the premium across more than 500, 000 empirical designs spanning common sample and methodological choices. In this multiverse setting, the average premium is -2.59 basis points. It varies systematically with sample composition, with more negative values for municipal bonds, and becomes more negative during periods of heightened climate attention. Finally, we investigate which choices drive variation in premium estimates. We find that it is driven primarily by issuer type and matching choices, while other choices, such as liquidity adjustment, contribute little to overall variation. |
| JEL: | C52 G11 G12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:340841 |
| By: | Johannes Emmerling; Paul Waidelich; Mr. Matthieu Bellon; Emanuele Massetti |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses estimates of the economic impacts of climate change by leveraging the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts (1990-2023) as climate-free counterfactuals. Placebo tests confirm WEO forecasts do not capture climate effects. By adding climate damage estimates to forecasts and comparing with actual GDP growth, we find climate damage functions explain only a small share of forecast errors—reducing mean absolute errors by up to 0.4 percentage points (about 6% of the forecast error). The most severe damage functions predict contractions in some countries that are inconsistent with observed growth, suggesting overstated near-term climate impacts. |
| Keywords: | climate impacts; validation; forecasts; damage function |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/085 |
| By: | Mittenzwei, Klaus |
| Abstract: | Dietary shifts are needed to improve public health and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but they may conflict with other ecosystem services provided by agriculture, such as landscape aesthetics and biodiversity. This paper identifies socially optimal diets and levels of ecosystem services from agriculture. Norway, which has highly ambitious policy goals in these areas, serves as a case study. We extend a partial equilibrium social welfare maximizing model of the Norwegian agricultural sector and include monetary health effects of dietary changes and ecosystem service provision in the model’s objective function. With mean estimates of health benefits, the optimal consumption of red and processed meat aligns closely with national guidelines and the EAT Lancet diet. Potential negative impacts of less red meat production on ecosystem services can be partially mitigated through changes in farm management and shifts in the production mix. However, socially optimal diets are highly sensitive to uncertainty in health benefit estimates. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397912 |
| By: | Mittermaier, Daniel; Merschroth, Simon; Auer, Cornelia; Bohne, Tobias; Ferri, Stefano; Gottwick, Vanessa; Michelini, Sidney; Slouma, Sana; Racek, Daniel; Šedová, Barbora |
| Abstract: | Climate and conflict hazards both threaten human security, and where they coincide their effects may compound. Yet global risk assessments often lack transparency and do not clearly distinguish between climate risk, conflict risk, and the vulnerabilities that shape both. We introduce the Climate Conflict Vulnerability Index (CCVI) to assess where, to what extent, and under which conditions climate and conflict risks (co-)occur. The CCVI is a global index at 0.5° x 0.5° spatial resolution and updated quarterly and harmonizes a wide range of indicators based on publicly available data to create measures of climate and conflict risk together with a combined score identifying places exposed to both. Applying the index globally, we find that combined climate-conflict risk is generally low to moderate, but highly concentrated in specific regions, with the highest levels observed in Africa between the Sahel belt and the equator. We further show that climate and conflict risks are spatially correlated in an asymmetric way: high conflict risk rarely occurs where climate risk is low, whereas high climate risk occurs across the full range of conflict risk. By separating shared vulnerability from climate and conflict hazards, the CCVI helps identify location-specific risk profiles. It constitutes an openly accessible, transparent tool for comparing climate-conflict risk patterns across sub-national regions worldwide. |
| Date: | 2026–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jqmx9_v1 |
| By: | Anke Hielscher (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg) |
| Abstract: | This short paper examines how green nudges can be utilized to promote sustainable behavior in the real estate sector. Based on central nudge approaches, concrete fields of application along the stages of development, usage, and marketing of real estate are identified. The objective is to provide impulses for practice-oriented measures as well as to highlight the need for further empirical research. |
| Keywords: | green nudges, nudging, real estate sector, sustainable behavior, behavioral economics |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mag:wpaper:26003 |
| By: | Caroline Veldhuizen (Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how, during a 25-year timeline from 2000 to 2025, the European Union (EU) has used climate, industrial and environmental policy to shape the emergence of an integrated carbon management system (CMS). It assesses the extent to which the evolving framework exhibits characteristics consistent with transformative innovation policy (TIP). The CMS is conceptualised as an emergent, policy-driven ‘interconnected system complex’ centred on carbon capture and storage (CCS), carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR), linked to multiple socio-technical systems. Methodologically, the study undertakes qualitative analysis of 114 binding and non-binding EU policy documents, over the timeline. An adapted version of Kanger, Ghosh and Entsalo’s (2025) Intervention Points Framework (IPF), grounded in the multi-level perspective, multi-system interaction literature, policy mix research and TIP debates is used as the analytical lens. The IPF is refined to address formation of an emergent, socio-technical configuration, rather than transition in more stable, established meso-level systems. The paper makes a number of important empirical and conceptual contributions. Empirically, the study reveals both the depth and shallowness of policy leverage across different intervention points and establishes that the transformative potential of the emergent CMS is real but ambivalent and contested. Conceptually, the study illustrates how policy may be used as a vehicle for observing and describing evolving systemic structures and flows and their directionality, and the iterative processes of formation and change which define them. The study also enables insights about the political nature of the ‘landscape’ level of the MLP, and the importance of the policymaking paradigm, for determining the potential of policy to drive transformational change. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tik:inowpp:20260504 |
| By: | Trialfhianty, Tyas Ismi; Apresian, Stanislaus Risadi; Supriyanto, Rahmad; Fox, Helen; Beger, Maria |
| Abstract: | As climate change intensifies, the integration of gender perspectives into climate adaptation and fisheries governance becomes increasingly critical to ensure equitable and effective policy outcomes. In Indonesia, where coastal communities are highly vulnerable, institutional coordination plays a pivotal role in shaping inclusive and climate-resilient development. This study investigates the institutional landscape of gender integration within climate adaptation and fisheries governance in Indonesia through an in-depth institutional mapping analysis. It examines the interactions among national ministries, regional governments, and local authorities, identifying structural fragmentation, overlapping mandates, and coordination gaps that hinder the effective mainstreaming of gender considerations. Although gender and climate agendas are articulated at the national level, the mapping reveals limited translation into subnational policies and practices. Furthermore, gender-focused institutions demonstrate weak linkages within the broader governance architecture, constraining their influence on policy formulation and implementation. The analysis highlights the critical need for multi-level coordination, enhanced inter-agency collaboration, and institutional reform to support inclusive, gender-responsive, and climate-resilient fisheries governance. The findings offer evidence-based recommendations to strengthen policy coherence and promote equity in the climate adaptation of coastal and marine resources. |
| Date: | 2026–04–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:n3r67_v1 |
| By: | Geir B. Asheim; Bård Harstad |
| Abstract: | The traditional approach to climate policy is to regulate the demand side, for example through an emissions fee. Supply-side regulation has received less attention. The two instruments are perfect substitutes in the first best but we show that they are complements in a second-best setting with free-riding incentives. Demand-side policies alone lower the market price of fossil fuels and raise the gains from trade for a country that defects. For a treaty to be maximally robust, strong, and self-enforcing, it must properly balance supply- and demand-side instruments. The results hold with homogeneous countries and are strengthened by heterogeneity. |
| JEL: | D62 F53 H23 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35128 |
| By: | Mr. Fabien Gonguet; Xuehui Han; Choonsung Lim; To-Nhu Dao; Saraf Nawar |
| Abstract: | Pacific Island Countries (PICs) face acute and rising climate adaptation needs due to high exposure to sea‑level rise, natural disasters, and structural vulnerabilities associated with small size and geographic remoteness. This paper develops a unified framework to produce the first region‑wide, internally consistent estimates of climate adaptation financing needs for PICs. A metadata analysis harmonizes country‑level assessments into comparable annual measures, while a complementary machine‑learning approach generates synthetic estimates for data‑deficient countries using economic, geographic, and climate‑vulnerability indicators, subject to differences in sectoral definitions and coverage embedded in the underlying source studies. The results show that adaptation needs are large, highly uneven across countries, and exceptionally high relative to GDP, particularly for atoll nations where physical risks dominate. The paper also examines climate adaptation finance flows to PICs over the past decade, distinguishing between commitments and estimated disbursements, and finds that current financing levels fall well short of projected needs. Disbursement ratios vary substantially across financing channels, reflecting differences in institutional capacity and project implementation. Taken together, the findings highlight substantial adaptation financing gaps in PICs and underscore the importance of strengthening institutional capacity and improving the effectiveness and accessibility of climate finance mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Climate Adaptation; Pacific Island Countries; Financing Needs; Climate Finance Flows; Meta-data Analysis; Machine Learning |
| Date: | 2026–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/083 |
| By: | Curran, Michael |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397907 |
| By: | Haldar, Surajit |
| Abstract: | Groundnut cultivation in Odisha has steadily declined, challenging rural livelihoods and oilseed sustainability. This study explores how farmers make sequential acreage decisions—first whether to grow groundnut, then how much land to allocate—under uncertainty shaped by climate variability, seed market failures, and price instability. Using survey data from 906 households across inland and coastal districts, a double-hurdle model separates participation drivers from acreage intensity factors. Irrigation access, improved seed availability, and household labour significantly raise the probability of allocating at least 10% of cropped area to groundnut, while high seed prices and poor-quality supply deter experienced inland farmers. Soil suitability strongly influences coastal participation. To capture macro-level dynamics, ARMAX models using 2000–2022 data assess rainfall effects on state-level groundnut area. Rainfall consistently shows a positive and significant impact, though high persistence and structural rigidities indicate systemic constraints beyond climate. By integrating household and time-series evidence, the study demonstrates how climate, seed systems, and market conditions jointly shape acreage decisions and identifies region-specific interventions to stabilise groundnut cultivation in Odisha. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397910 |
| By: | Zavalloni, Matteo; Hanley, Nick; Simpson, Katherine |
| Abstract: | Despite significant policy interventions and conservation initiatives, incentives for the conservation of biodiversity have been criticized for being ecologically ineffective and economically inefficient. This paper examines a novel approach to improve the ecological and economic performance of such incentives. Specifically, we analyse the ecological and economic effectiveness of a targeting bonus which establishes a two-part subsidy for changes to land management when the ecological benefits of such changes vary spatially. Using a spatially explicit mathematical programming model applied to an empirical case study in the UK, we show that a targeting bonus has the potential to enhance efficiency, with the magnitude of gains depending on the strength and sign of the spatial correlation between opportunity costs and ecological benefits, as well as the size of the budget and the definition of the targeting zone. We find that the targeting bonus offers major advantages when the most ecologically beneficial land parcels are positively correlated with highest opportunity costs for farmers; and that the additional benefits of the targeting bonus relative to a no-bonus subsidy scheme eventually decline as the share of the bonus is increased. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397867 |
| By: | Sandrine Frémeaux (Audencia Business School); Hye-Lan Lee (Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | In the civil economy, and even more so in the gift economy, the logic of giving can find its place in economic activity itself. It is well established that giving can support social and ecological actions, but the question remains as to how it can support an organization's ecological transition. Based on a qualitative investigation within a South Korean gift economy organization, our study reveals that ecological awareness-raising or training, support for ecological actors, and efforts to reduce waste and emissions are all more effective when they are experienced as opportunities to practice the logic of giving and to strengthen social ties. We also highlight four characteristics of the ecological transition based on the logic of giving: ecological giving as a choice for entrepreneurs and managers, the practice of ecological giving by all, the cascading of ecological gifts, and the synergy between social and ecological giving. Finally, our study identifies the specific tensions inherent in this ecological response and also shows how, in a collectivist culture, economic actors confront these tensions by focusing on the benefits of collective action. |
| Keywords: | Civil economy, Collectivist culture, Ecological transition, Logic of giving |
| Date: | 2025–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05605769 |
| By: | Hu, Huanyue,; Charpe, Matthieu, |
| Abstract: | This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic impacts of conflict and climate shocks—particularly floods and droughts—on South Sudan between 2012 and 2023. By leveraging innovative remote sensing techniques and geospatial data, it offers a unique perspective on how these overlapping crises have shaped the country’s development trajectory. |
| Keywords: | conflict, climate change, impact evaluation. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995672156902676 |
| By: | Rathnayaka, Shashika D.; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar; Chalmers, Neil; de Roos, Baukje |
| Abstract: | Understanding UK consumer responses to meat prices is critical for health, environmental, and fiscal policy. While red and processed meat consumption remains above recommended levels for some consumers, contributing to cardiovascular disease & colorectal cancer risk, and greenhouse gas emissions, most empirical studies treat red meat as a single aggregate category, masking important heterogeneity in beef purchasing patterns. Using the data from Kantar Worldpanel data for 2013–2022, this study estimates expenditure and price elasticities for a disaggregated set of beef products, alongside lamb, pork, poultry, fish, and other meat products. A dynamic two-stage error-corrected LA/AIDS model was applied to capture gradual adjustment and long-run equilibrium relationships. Results reveal substantial heterogeneity in own- and cross-price elasticities across beef products, with pronounced vertical differentiation within beef, and complex substitution and complementarity patterns across meat groups, that are obscured in aggregate models. Short-run elasticities are often smaller in magnitude than long-run elasticities, reflecting consumption inertia and gradual adjustment. Statistically significant error-correction terms confirm stable long-run relationships across both aggregate and disaggregated systems. These findings provide robust evidence to inform targeted fiscal and pricing policies aimed at promoting healthier and more sustainable dietary transitions. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397919 |
| By: | Li, Yixuan; Ker, Alan; Aglasan, Serkan |
| Abstract: | Crop yield distribution modeling faces three key challenges: complex distributional structure, limited historical data at the county level, and the need to incorporate evolving climate conditions into distributional dynamics. We propose a Fixed-Effect Panel Neural Mixture (FEPNM) framework to address these challenges. FEPNM extends finite mixture models to a panel data setting, allowing information sharing across counties through fixed effects to mitigate short time-series limitations. We further generalize the mixture model into a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) type specification by introducing a neural-network gating mechanism that flexibly maps climate variables and conservation practices to time-varying regime probabilities. This structure enables direct modeling of the probability of yield loss as a nonlinear function of climate exposure and management adoption. Simulations demonstrate that FEPNM substantially improves the precision of structural parameter estimates and average partial effects, particularly in short-T settings. In an empirical application to U.S. county-level corn yields, FEPNM outperforms conventional mixture and single-distribution specifications in both in-sample and out-of-sample likelihood. Our results provide structural evidence on how climate exposure and conservation practices jointly shape corn yield distributions. Heating Degree Days (HDD) significantly increase the probability of yield loss, while adoption of cover crops and no-tillage practices significantly reduces downside yield risk. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating nonlinear climate effects and management practices into distributional modeling for agricultural risk management and crop insurance design. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397878 |
| By: | Sherry, Erin |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397874 |
| By: | Baumert, Josef; Heckelei, Thomas; Estes, Lyndon; Storm, Hugo |
| Abstract: | Spatially explicit information on farmers’ crop choice and how it is impacted by changing environmental or economic conditions is essential to foster food security and predict future crop production. While such knowledge could be particularly beneficial in world regions with large rural populations and high climate risk, data scarcity often impedes crop production mapping and modelling. We present a novel approach that links environmental data, satellite imagery, and regional statistics using economic modelling and generative AI for high-resolution crop choice mapping and modelling without labelled observations. The approach builds on two components: first, we employ a reduced-form model based on economic theory to express the cultivation probability of a crop at a specific location as a function of environmental and potentially economic conditions. Second, we use k-Deep Variational Autoencoders, a class of generative neural networks, to cluster pixels with similar appearance on satellite imagery into groups that can be associated to crop types. By linking both components and jointly estimating all model parameters, the economic model provides prior knowledge to the clustering approach while benefiting from the information entailed in the remote sensing imagery. Validation for France indicates high overall accuracies of the obtained crop maps. We additionally apply the approach to northern Ghana and simulate how an increase in in-season droughts would impact the spatial distribution of major food crops, information crucial for food security policies. Our method is applicable to numerous world regions. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397894 |
| By: | Yashvant Premchand (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Peter Mulder (Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | Where should we build new housing under growing climate hazards? This paper develops a framework that balances the economic benefits of density against the geographically varying costs of climate adaptation. We apply it to the Netherlands, where demand for new housing is high, but much of the land lies in floodplains or subsidence-prone areas. Agglomeration benefits are proxied by land values, while adaptation costs are derived from engineering estimates of flood protection and soil subsidence. Combining these data allows us to map spatial trade-offs and identify where development remains welfare-enhancing. Our findings show that dense cities continue to generate strong net welfare gains, even in places with high costs, while low-density settlements generate a welfare loss for new housing. We identify density thresholds above which housing development becomes feasible. Many medium-sized Dutch cities already exceed these thresholds, making densification more beneficial than peripheral expansion. Climate adaptation thus strengthens—rather than weakens—the case for urban densification. |
| Keywords: | Housing development, Climate adaptation, Agglomeration effects, Land values, Urban density |
| JEL: | Q54 R11 R14 R31 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250073 |
| By: | Peçanha, Vinícius (LEME); Rocha, Rudi (FGV São Paulo School of Business Administration); Szerman, Dimitri (Amazon) |
| Abstract: | If much of the variation in climate exposure occurs across short distances, then so too might the health consequences of heatwaves and the potential for place-based adaptation. We test this by combining high-resolution satellite data and administrative death records from Rio de Janeiro to estimate neighborhood-level heat effects. Nearly 60% of excess elderly mortality is driven by localized exposure differences. Yet as temperatures rise, spatial variation declines and city-wide shocks become more dominant. Preventive care and proximity to emergency services attenuate mortality, but only emergency access remains protective under localized exposure. Intervention points may thus lie hidden within city-level averages. |
| Keywords: | heat waves, mortality, mitigation policies, healthcare |
| JEL: | I14 I15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18601 |
| By: | Masako Ikefuji (University of Osaka); Jan R. Magnus (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Zhehao Wang (University of Osaka) |
| Abstract: | We explore how news and social pressure affect public opinion on climate change in the USA, based on county-level data over the period 1990--2024. Social pressure turns out to be the key factor that shapes public opinion on climate change, much more so than media. Policies that increase the overall level of educational achievement will create more awareness of climate change, but only if these policies don't change the shape of the education distribution. If only right-wing news is available and republicans have complete control over all media, public opinion about climate in democratic counties will not decrease; in fact, it will increase, although only marginally. |
| Keywords: | News coverage, social pressure, demographic diversity, political polarization, dynamics of opinion, climate change, USA |
| JEL: | D72 D83 D91 Q54 C13 C15 |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250065 |
| By: | Thomas Lebbe; Freddy Heylen (-) |
| Abstract: | Estimates of the elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty energy - and the values assumed in theoretical models - vary from less than 0.5 to as high as 10, creating substantial uncertainty about climate policy effectiveness and the feasibility of green growth. This paper develops an encompassing empirical specification that nests both low and high elasticity estimates and applies it to macroeconomic data from 13 OECD countries over 1980– 2020. Holding countries’ energy-related technology and infrastructure constant, the estimated elasticity of substitution remains well below 1, indicating limited short-run responsiveness of energy inputs to relative price changes. Allowing technology and infrastructure to respond to price changes, the estimated elasticity rises to between 2 and 3, a plausible long-run value. Without any controls, estimates reach as high as 6, greatly overstating true substitutability. We conclude that price-based policies alone, such as carbon taxes, are insufficient to trigger early-stage energy transitions. Investments in clean technology and infrastructure are essential, as they increase both the share of clean energy and the elasticity of substitution. Our findings can also guide the calibration of energy-augmented macroeconomic models. The elasticity values imposed in these models appear more often too high than too low. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:26/1140 |
| By: | Mzek, Tareq; Piras, Simone; Lozada, Luz-Maria; Premarathne, Mindi |
| Abstract: | Agri‑Environmental Climate Schemes (AECS) are central to Scotland’s environmental goals, but their success depends on voluntary farmer participation. This study used a discrete choice experiment to explore Scottish farmers’ preferences for AECS design. A total of 144 farmers completed an online survey, choosing between hypothetical scheme options that varied in contract duration, environmental objective, collaboration requirements, technical assistance, payment type, monitoring approach, and payment level. Data were analysed using conditional and mixed logit models. Results show that farmers are generally not in favour of having to collaborate with other farmers; the option to apply jointly was consistently viewed negatively across all models. There is some evidence that farmers prefer shorter contracts over longer ones, and that they are open to results‑based payments and schemes focused on soil health. The payment (monetary) attribute itself was not statistically significant, and its large standard deviation suggests farmers are divided on whether payments drive their choices: some respond positively and others negatively. Willingness to accept estimates should be treated with caution given the uncertainty around the payment coefficient. These findings highlight the importance of farmers’ independence and flexibility when designing schemes. The results also point to potential interest in soil health and results‑based payments, and that the payment level is not necessarily the main driver beyond application decisions. These findings can assist policymakers in understanding what truly matters to farmers when designing the AECS. By incorporating farmers’ views, they can not only encourage higher participation rates but also ensure that the schemes on offer align more closely with farmers’ actual requirements. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397890 |
| By: | McCormack, Maureen |
| Abstract: | Irish livestock systems are characterised by a predominantly grass-based production model, where cows spend the majority of the year grazing outdoors. Effective grassland management is therefore fundamental to the success of Irish livestock farming. Central to this is the strategic application of fertiliser, both chemical and organic, to ensure an adequate supply of grass throughout the grazing season and for the production of grass silage for the housing period. Nonetheless, excessive use of nitrogen (N) fertilisers poses environmental risks, with high N surpluses causing potential runoff into watercourses, thereby compromising water quality. A key metric in assessing the sustainability of livestock systems, where N inputs often exceed outputs, is Nitrogen use efficiency (NUE). In this paper, the NUE trends on Irish dairy farms from 2013 to 2023 was investigated, analysing Farm Accountancy Network data (FADN) to identify key determinants of NUE on grass based systems. The analysis shows that reducing total N inputs is the most important driver, but that farm size reducing the N content in concentrate feed and innovations such as Low Emission Slurry Spreading (LESS) and the use of protected urea are also important drivers of NUE at farm level. Notably, the interaction between soil productivity and nitrogen inputs indicates that more productive soils support significantly higher NUE at comparable input levels, suggesting a greater capacity to convert nitrogen inputs into output on better land. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397884 |
| By: | Piseddu, Elisa (RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and Bernhardt Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine); Brodeur, Abel (University of Ottawa); Rose, Julian (RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and Ludwig Maximilian University Munich, Department of Sociology); Sievert, Maximiliane (RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research); Ankel-Peters, Jörg (RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and University of Passau) |
| Abstract: | Döbbeling-Hildebrandt et al. (2024, DH2024) conduct a meta-analysis of the effectiveness of carbon pricing. DH2024’s abstract concludes that 17 of 21 schemes evaluated in the literature produced substantial emissions reductions. A subsequent press release was headed: “Carbon pricing works†. This comment revisits the meta-analysis and examines whether its empirical evidence supports the claims made in DH2024’s abstract and, notably, the press release. We use DH2024’s own approach of accounting for statistical power and potentially biased causal inference in the underlying studies. We show that when these criteria are applied simultaneously and conservatively – which we argue they should be – only nine effective schemes remain, eight in China and one regional US scheme. We emphasize that statistical power is a major issue in most carbon pricing evaluations, because most carbon prices are very low, leading to weak signal-to-noise ratios. We conclude that DH2024’s policy implications and its press release therefore cannot be squared with its evidence base. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing, meta-analysis, statistical power |
| JEL: | Q35 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18579 |
| By: | Faerozh Madli (Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Jakaria Dasan Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Mat Salleh@Salleh Wahab Author-3-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia Author-4-Name: Shaierah Gulabdin Author-4-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia Author-5-Name: Bibianah Thomas Author-5-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia Author-6-Name: Christian Wiradendi Wolor Author-6-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics, Universitas Negeri Jakarta, Indonesia Author-7-Name: Dean Nelson Mojolou Author-7-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia Author-8-Name: Khairunisah Kamsin Author-8-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business, Economics and Accountancy, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - The concept of marketing has been around for a very long time. Over the years, it has continuously evolved, adapting to changing trends and technological advancements. Recognizing this ongoing transformation, this study focuses on current developments that are directly linked to marketing. Methodology/Technique - Acknowledging this phenomenon of change, this study focuses on current developments directly related to the marketing concept. In particular, it examines the growing discussions on space tourism and the possibility of human migration to other planets. This focus was chosen because both topics are expected to have significant global implications for business and society in the future. To achieve its objective, this study synthesizes insights from past research related to these emerging trends. Findings - The findings hold value from multiple perspectives, especially for businesses operating within the vast ecosystem of space tourism. Companies in this industry can use these insights as a reference for developing future strategic marketing plans. Beyond that, the findings can also benefit various industries by helping them prepare for potential disruptions brought about by rapid technological advancements and shifts over time. Novelty - Moreover, this study not only contributes meaningfully to academic knowledge but also adds to the ongoing discourse on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Its relevance aligns closely with key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), such as SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 4 (Quality Education), and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals), reinforcing its broader significance in shaping future global strategies. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | marketing, sustainable development goals, space tourism |
| JEL: | Q33 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jmmr366 |
| By: | Nejadrezaei, Nima; Balaine, Lorraine; Buckley, Cathal; Chiabrando, Andrea; Regueiro, Leticia; Mohammadrezaei, Mohammad; Baratta, Selene; Argiz, Lucia |
| Abstract: | Livestock farming plays a key role in European agriculture but is increasingly associated with environmental challenges. Effective manure management is essential to mitigate these impacts, yet the adoption of improved technologies and practices remains slow. Farmers’ decisions are shaped by technical, economic, and behavioural factors, and positive attitudes do not always translate into implementation, making adoption a complex process. This study, part of the Horizon Europe NUTRITIVE project, examines these dynamics in Ireland, Italy, and Spain using a mixed-method approach. Semi-structured interviews and a Delphi study with diverse stakeholders were conducted to identify key technologies, practices, and barriers. Insights from these phases, together with a scoping literature review, will inform focus groups and the development of a survey research conceptual framework. The quantitative phase will involve a farmer survey and advanced modelling techniques to analyse adoption patterns and cross-country differences. The expected outcomes will help bridge the gap between attitudes and actual uptake, guiding interventions and policy strategies to promote sustainable manure management across the EU. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397889 |
| By: | Anne Saint-Eve (SayFood - Paris-Saclay Food and Bioproduct Engineering - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, AgroParisTech, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Université Paris Saclay (COmUE)); Jean-Denis Faure (IJPB - Institut Jean-Pierre Bourgin - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - AgroParisTech); Alexandra Jullien; Christophe Martin (INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CSGA - Centre des Sciences du Goût et de l'Alimentation [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, INRAE, PROBE Research Infrastructure, Plateforme Chemosens [Dijon] - CSGA - Centre des Sciences du Goût et de l'Alimentation [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Dijon - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement); Stephan Marette (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05604504 |
| By: | Begho, Toritseju; Asmare, Fissha; Glenk, Klaus |
| Abstract: | Farmers face a range of structural, environmental and market adjustments that require continual adaptation in management practices and decision-making. Understanding how farmers respond to change is central to promoting adaptability and resilience in agriculture. This study examines Scottish farmers’ dispositional orientation toward change using data from a Farmer Intentions (FIS) 2023 survey. Thirteen Likert-scale statements, adapted from Oreg’s (2003) Resistance to Change (RTC) framework, were used to elicit farmers’ orientation toward change. The Likert-scale items were used to construct a composite behavioural change-cautious orientation (CCO) index following psychometric validation where a higher value indicate a stronger change-cautious orientation, whereas lower values reflect greater openness to change. The index was analysed using ANOVA and regression methods to examine demographic, social and perceptual determinants of behavioural orientation, and to assess how openness to change influences farmers’ future investment and environmental intentions. Two underlying dimensions were identified, namely, aversion to disruption in daily practices, and openness to embrace behavioural and managerial change. CCO varied with farmer type, group membership, age and percentage of household income that comes from the farm business. Business-oriented and group-affiliated farmers exhibited a weaker CCO, whereas crofters, hobbyists, smallholders, and especially the oldest farmers showed a stronger CCO. Farmers with a weaker CCO were significantly more likely to plan increased investment and participation in agri-environmental activities. Farmers with weaker CCO are also more likely to adopt sustainable agricultural practices. These results indicate that openness to change among Scottish farmers is structured by type, farmer group-affiliation and experience. Differentiated engagement strategies are needed to strengthen farmers’ orientation toward change. Therefore, policies that combine business-focused advisory support with network-based learning for different farmers’ enterprise type can help reduce behavioural inertia and encourage forward-looking investment and environmental action. |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397869 |
| By: | Beate Deixelberger (University of Graz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | Empirical evidence on the productivity effects of environmental regulation remains inconclusive, with mixed findings across studies. Using a large-scale panel of EU firms from 2013 to 2022, this paper examines how environmental policy stringency affects firm-level productivity. Productivity is estimated from production functions and regressed on policy stringency, measured using the OECD Climate Actions and Policies Measurement Framework, in a dynamic distributed-lag panel framework. Baseline estimates point to small and often statistically insignificant aggregate effects that are highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, reflecting policy-macro co-movement. Decomposing sectoral policies by instrument type suggests potentially offsetting effects, which attenuate once policy-macro co-movement is accounted for. Allowing for sectoral heterogeneity, however, reveals pronounced differences across industries, with more negative responses in input-intensive and regulation-exposed sectors and more positive ones in less exposed, more flexible sectors. These findings indicate that aggregate estimates mask economically meaningful heterogeneity across sectors and policy instruments, thereby helping to reconcile the mixed empirical evidence. |
| Keywords: | Environmental policy, Firm productivity, Sectoral heterogeneity, Porter hypothesis, Dynamic panel data, European Union |
| JEL: | Q58 D24 C23 L25 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2026-06 |
| By: | Wang, Yitian (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia); Vespignani, Joaquin (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Smyth, Russell (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Accelerating transport electrification is vital for net-zero goals, yet remains hindered by slow, uncertain development of battery minerals. We show how non-technical risk, such as policy, regulatory, social, and geopolitical risk, inflate capital costs, delay greenfield supply, and heighten price volatility for lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, and copper. Combining Fraser Institute investment scores with reserve shares of these critical minerals, we construct dynamic, mineral-specific risk premiums, derive an optimal stockpiling rule balancing risk and storage costs and introduce a distance-to-iso-cost map comparing recycling and stockpiling strategies. Our framework suggests that in 2040 recycling-led stabilization will be the optimal strategy for mitigating non-technical risk for Japan and Korea, strategic stockpiling will be the optimal strategy for China and the United States, and mixed outcomes for Europe. The method that we propose provides a tractable and updateable toolkit for deciding optimal stockpiles and prioritising recycling where it is most cost-effective. |
| Keywords: | economics; finance; energy economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tas:wpaper:30907352 |
| By: | Niklas Rott; Douglas Almond; Osea Giuntella |
| Abstract: | Rapid growth of wind energy plays a key role in global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, yet public concerns persist about its potential health effects, particularly through noise exposure. While some studies and media reports suggest that wind turbines may contribute to sleep disturbances, anxiety, and even suicide, existing evidence remains limited and inconclusive. This study combines geolocated data on turbines from the U.S. Wind Turbine Database with longitudinal survey data on over 120, 000 households (2011–2023) and consumer purchasing records to assess whether proximity to wind turbines affects mental and physical health. We examine a wide range of outcomes, including depression, anxiety, sleep disorders, headaches, and use of sleep aids and painkillers. Comparing households before and after nearby turbine installations, we find no detectable adverse health effects from turbine exposure at typical exposure distances. While we cannot rule out small effects, our confidence intervals exclude moderate-to-large impacts, suggesting that fears about substantial health impacts are not borne out in population-level data. Other disamenities such as noise, shadow flicker, and visual intrusion may still affect quality of life even absent measurable health impacts. |
| JEL: | I1 Q50 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35131 |
| By: | Biagini, Luigi |
| Abstract: | Producer Organisations (POs) are a central instrument of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), designed to strengthen farmers’ collective action, improve their market position and promote sustainable agricultural practices. Despite their long-standing policy relevance, evidence on whether PO membership yields measurable benefits at the individual farm level remains limited and inconclusive, particularly in the European context. This paper assesses the causal impact of PO membership on farm performance in the Italian fruit and vegetable (F&V) sector, where the PO model is most established and widespread. Using microdata from the Italian Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) covering the period 2014-2022, the study applies a Double Debiased Machine Learning (DDML) estimator to evaluate the effects of PO participation across multiple performance dimensions aligned with the objectives of Article 46 of Regulation (EU) 2021/2115. These dimensions include economic competitiveness, efficiency, financial structure, commercial and qualitative performance, environmental sustainability, risk management, and labour composition. Results reveal a nuanced and heterogeneous pattern across production systems. For permanent crop farms, PO membership is associated with improvements in output valorisation, quality-certified production, direct sales, investment intensity, and environmental indicators, alongside lower profitability margins and reduced asset turnover, suggesting a trade-off between quality upgrading and short-term cost efficiency. In contrast, for horticultural farms, the effects are more limited and often statistically insignificant. Overall, these contrasting patterns underline the importance of accounting for heterogeneity between production systems when evaluating the economic impacts of PO membership and suggest that policy interventions should be tailored accordingly. The study contributes to the literature in two main ways. First, it provides the first comprehensive multidimensional causal evaluation of PO membership effects in a major EU F&V producing country, explicitly comparing different production systems. Second, it demonstrates the value of the DDML approach for agricultural impact assessment, showing how high-dimensional causal methods can uncover complex and sometimes conflicting effects of collective action on farm performance. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397880 |
| By: | Ngarava, Saul; Magnone, Daniel; Gould, Iain; Ruto, Eric |
| Abstract: | Flood-induced salinisation poses a significant threat to agricultural productivity and economic stability, particularly in flood-prone regions like Greater Lincolnshire, United Kingdom, where agriculture contributes substantially to the local economy. This study assesses the impacts of salinisation on crop production value and its cascading effects on the broader economy, employing spatial econometric models, propensity score matching (PSM), regression analysis, and Leontief input-output frameworks. Focusing on key crops such as winter/spring wheat/barley, beet, oilseed, and potato, the study integrates spatial data on crop distribution, land quality, and flood zones to model salinity effects. Results reveal strong spatial spillovers, with land quality and crop area as dominant predictors of value losses, while salinity's direct impact is minimal, suggesting effective adaptations or confounding factors. PSM ensures robust causal inference, showing excellent covariate balance for most crops, though potato exhibits some imbalances. Economy-wide analysis indicates total losses exceeding £253 million for the chosen crops, with £124 million for winter wheat alone, with ripple effects through supply chains, including wholesale trade and fertilizer sectors. Sensitivity simulations highlight systemic vulnerabilities to shock magnitudes. The findings underscore the need for spatially targeted policies, such as enhanced drainage and salt-tolerant crop promotion, to mitigate clustered risks and ensure food resilience. Future research should incorporate dynamic models and comparative studies to address methodological limitations and enhance predictive accuracy. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397913 |
| By: | Kilgore, Maureen |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397914 |
| By: | Chalmers, Neil G.; Revoredo-Giha, Cesar; Rathnayaka, Shashika D.; de Roos, Baukje |
| Abstract: | Recent research using extracted data on the UK Seafood Supply chain shows the top four combined sustainability and nutrient dense species of: herring, mackerel, salmon, and mussels, whilst, the 5 most consumed fish species (‘the big five’, e.g. cod, haddock, salmon, tuna and prawns, make up 80 percent of the fish and seafood consumed in the UK), are all import reliant. Rathnayaka et al (2025) found that demand for most seafood products was more dependent on income and change in tastes than price. The work on this paper extended the analysis of the demand for seafood products by considering: (1) different seafood classifications, (2) a different demand system, (3) use of 2024 cross sectional data and (4) estimating five demand systems based on the quintiles of household spending on food and drink products (a proxy for household income). This study applies an incomplete demand system modelling to understand British household demand for sustainable and nutrient dense seafood products with regards to the different household income groups. The Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) demand system used cross sectional data and considering different socioeconomic groups (identified by income quintiles). The data consisted of 2024 Kantar Worldpanel data for Great Britain, considering 5 seafood groups. The estimated demand system was used to compute price and expenditure elasticities at household level. The main findings suggest that lower income households are more price sensitive relative to higher income households for canned oily fish and oil fish products. Therefore, a price-based policy for lower expenditure households with regards to canned oily and oily fish may be an effective way to encourage greater consumption of seafood products with potential beneficial health and sustainable benefits. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397918 |
| By: | Erik Ansink (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Jelmer van 't Veer (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Habitat connectivity is a prominent target of biodiversity policy, but it remains unclear which landscape margins matter most for conservation outcomes under scarce budgets. We study this question in the Dutch river area by comparing six connectivity metrics as predictors of occurrence for three red-listed species. Across species and specifications, habitat area shows the strongest and most consistent association with occurrence, while graph-based metrics add limited explanatory value. Because woody linear elements are especially prominent in current Dutch policy, we examine that margin more closely using an instrumental-variables strategy based on historical fragmentation and land-consolidation timing. The IV results provide no consistent evidence that woody linear elements improve species occurrence once endogeneity is addressed. An illustrative cost-effectiveness comparison further suggests that increasing habitat area dominates reducing isolation on the evaluated margin. Taken together, the results support prioritizing habitat expansion over stronger reliance on woody linear elements or more complex connectivity proxies in this setting. |
| Keywords: | Biodiversity conservation, habitat connectivity, cost-effectiveness |
| JEL: | C21 Q24 Q57 R14 |
| Date: | 2025–10–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250060 |
| By: | Ncube, Tomy; Ekoh, Susan |
| Abstract: | Climate-related extreme weather events are increasingly displacing communities across Southern Africa, with negative implications for social cohesion, livelihoods, and community resilience. Understanding how displacement erodes social cohesion is important for developing strategies for restoring it. Evidence shows that livelihood support interventions, for example, cash-based assistance, in-kind transfers (agricultural inputs) up to skills development programmes, are a pathway for mending or strengthening social cohesion in displacement contexts. Yet, in some cases, they can further fragment it. This requires strategies under which such interventions can be deployed to positively shape social cohesion outcomes. This Policy Brief synthesises insights from qualitative research conducted from 2023 to 2025 with displaced communities and host populations in Zimbabwe (Chimanimani and Tsholotsho districts) and Mozambique (Guara Guara, Grudja and Praia Nova). It examines how livelihood interventions can either rebuild or further fragment social cohesion, identifies critical factors driving cohesion outcomes, and provides evidence-based recommendations for national governments, humanitarian actors, and development cooperation actors working in climate-displacement contexts across Southern Africa. In Zimbabwe, vertical social cohesion in displacement contexts is eroded by a lack of designated policies on displacement, leading to poor socioeconomic outcomes for displaced individuals; ad hoc recovery and reconstruction efforts that undermine durable solutions and long-term recovery; and a lack of accountability infrastructure that undermines trust in the government. In Mozambique, the slow implementation and unequal distribution of recovery interventions undermine cooperation between communities and the institutions involved in post-disaster recovery efforts. This has led to large-scale returns of people to high-risk areas. Drawing insights from both case studies, we provide key recommendations and conditions for implementing livelihood support to achieve social cohesion in climaterelated displacement contexts. Key policy messages. Livelihood interventions can lead to maladaptation if not supported by strong governance mechanisms including policy frameworks and institutional coordination in planning and implementation. People-centred, area-based approaches to livelihood programming that account for predisplacement livelihoods and support postdisplacement transitions, while benefiting both displaced populations and host communities, should be adopted. One-size-fits-all interventions risk undermining economic recovery and social cohesion. Horizontal and vertical social cohesion indicators should be embedded in livelihood programmes from the outset to assess the social impacts before and after implementation. Inclusive, participatory decision-making in the delivery of livelihood support programmes should be mandated to prevent exclusionary practices that erode trust in institutions. |
| Keywords: | displacement, climate chance, social cohesion, Africa |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:340868 |
| By: | Latka, Catharina; Mittenzwei, Klaus; Heckelei, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Many consumers in high-income countries do not adhere to dietary guidelines. This imposes a threat to their health and to the environment as some of the excessively consumed foods also have high emission footprints. Food price changes (e.g. enforced through taxes) are a promising lever to steer consumers toward a recommended diet. However, a country-level pricing policy fails to only target those consumers that do not follow dietary recommendations but affect all consumers. Here, we estimate individual household-specific demand systems using a locally-weighted approach to capture differences in the preference structure and price sensitivity of consumers. We compare these to a pooled estimation and assess elasticity differences and implications for meat tax simulations. Tax-induced meat consumption reductions, embedded greenhouse gas emission savings and the level of adherence to dietary recommendations are compared at the national level and for consumer groups defined based on their baseline meat intake. Our findings stress that without considering heterogeneity in price responsiveness, we tend to over-estimate benefits from pricing policies. Consumers eating more meat than recommended are less responsive to price changes, but would still contribute most to emission savings and show the largest absolute dietary improvements. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397876 |
| By: | Miro Mehic (Paderborn University) |
| Abstract: | Nudging has become a widely used policy instrument for promoting pro-environmental behavior. Although extensive evidence demonstrates that nudges are effective in the short term, far less is known about whether these effects persist over time. This study presents the first systematic literature review and meta-analysis focused explicitly on the long-term effects of environmental nudges. A total of 42 publications reporting 140 effect sizes (N = 613, 894) were synthesized using a three-level random-effects model. Across all studies, nudging interventions produced a small overall effect (d = 0.30, 95% CI [0.19, 0.41]). An analysis of the temporal dynamics based on 61 effect sizes showed that long-term effects remained positive and statistically significant, although smaller in magnitude than short-term effects. A continuous meta-regression revealed a significant decline in effectiveness over time (β = –0.0113), indicating gradual behavioral decay. Quartile analyses confirmed this pattern, with significant effects up to 60 days after intervention and increasing heterogeneity in effectiveness thereafter. Moderator analyses revealed substantial variation across nudge types. The findings provide systematic evidence that environmental nudges do lead to persistent behavior change, though with clear attenuation over time. These results offer important implications for policymakers and organizations designing long-term behavioral interventions and highlight the need for future research on mechanisms that enhance temporal stability. |
| Keywords: | Nudging, pro-environmental behavior, long-term effects |
| JEL: | Q5 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdn:dispap:178 |
| By: | Yanrui Wu (Department of Economics, University of Western Australia) |
| Abstract: | This report presents an overview of the supply chains of key EV battery critical minerals by examining the electric battery industry of China. It highlights the potential supply chain risks and discusses options to minimize these risks. It then provides several policy recommendations for relevant governments. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicle industry, EV batteries, battery critical minerals, supply chains |
| JEL: | F13 L62 O25 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:26-03 |
| By: | Imen Ben Tahar; Dylan Possama\"i; Xiaolu Tan |
| Abstract: | This paper characterises optimal incentive schemes for ESG disclosure in a continuous-time principal-agent setting. We model a risk-averse principal (e.g., a platform or standard-setter) contracting with a team of heterogeneous agents whose disclosure signals are each correlated with a traded climate risk factor. The optimal contract balances incentive provision against the variance of aggregate payouts by leveraging three instruments: own-signal loading, cross-signal loadings across agents, and hedging tilts on the traded asset. We derive closed-form linear optimal controls in a tractable linear-quadratic-Gaussian framework. When the principal is nearly risk-neutral, the contract uses the traded asset purely to hedge the specific `enforcement risk' generated by high-powered incentives. As the principal's risk aversion increases, the optimal scheme converges to a `market-neutral' regime where aggregate asset exposure is eliminated and the cross-signal structure tightens to an `identity pooling' constraint. We characterise this limit analytically as a constrained quadratic program governed by an M-matrix. In the high-risk-aversion regime, heterogeneity creates genuinely new effects absent under symmetry: the cross-section of S-tilts must change sign (unless degenerate), and an agent's own-signal diagonal can turn negative when that row is too strongly exposed to the common traded factor relative to the rest of the group. The results provide a theoretical foundation for `mixed' compensation structures in Regenerative Finance (ReFi), rationalising the use of both stable payments and volatile governance tokens to optimise risk-sharing. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.24344 |
| By: | Lampkin, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | Almost forty years of agri-environment and rural development policy support for organic farming in the EU has seen the sector grow from less than 100, 000 ha in 1985 to more than 18 million ha (11.1 % of EU27 utilisable agricultural area (UAA)) in 2024. While globally, the organic food market has been the primary driver of organic sector growth, in the EU policy drivers are also important, if not dominant, in explaining the growth trends. Regulatory definition of organic practices, agri-environmental payments for organic conversion and maintenance, rural development investment aids, promotion funding, public procurement, research and advisory measures have all contributed, often integrated in organic action plans. Overall, growth is continuing at similar rates, but with some significant variations between Member States. With the EU targeting 25% of agricultural land to be managed organically by 2030, it is relevant to ask which drivers could be leveraged to secure the desired results. In this paper we explore the evidence relating to policy, market and information drivers and their influence on the development of organic farming at EU level and in individual member states. Policy recommendations to achieve this, with a focus on the next CAP, are highlighted. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397905 |
| By: | Nkhoma, Nomore; Chen, Xiaonan |
| Abstract: | Persistent food insecurity and low agricultural productivity continue to undermine rural livelihoods in Sub-Saharan Africa, where smallholder farmers face increasing climatic and market risks. Crop diversification has been promoted as a potential strategy to enhance resilience and improve welfare, yet rigorous causal evidence remains limited. This paper examines whether crop diversification enhances land productivity and household food security in Malawi, using nationally representative data and Double/Debiased Machine Learning (DML) to address model specification bias and high-dimensional confounding. Results show that diversification significantly increases land productivity, food consumption, and household dietary diversity, with the strongest impacts observed for dietary quality and food consumption. Mechanism analysis highlights market participation, access to credit, and the use of organic fertilizers as critical pathways through which diversification improves outcomes. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that benefits are most significant among rural, small-scale, and male-headed households. Robustness checks, including propensity score matching and sensitivity analysis, confirm the validity of the findings. Overall, the study demonstrates that crop diversification is not merely a risk-coping strategy but a transformative pathway toward productivity growth and food system resilience. By integrating causal inference with modern machine learning, this study advances empirical understanding and provides policy-relevant insights for promoting sustainable and climate-resilient agriculture in Africa. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397882 |
| By: | Stef Proost (K.U.Leuven) |
| Abstract: | Cet article décrit les principales sources d'émissions de carbone dans le secteur des transports, notamment les voitures, les camions, le transport maritime et l'aviation. Pour chaque mode, il passe en revue les mesures d'incitation à l'efficacité énergétique, les politiques en matière de carburants alternatifs et les politiques de report modal, ainsi que les résultats auxquels on peut s'attendre. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05604102 |
| By: | Pavel Kiparisov; Christian Folberth |
| Abstract: | Global food security depends on tightly coupled international supply chains including natural gas, mineral fertilizers, and staple crops. Earlier research has examined potential consequences of disruptions in each of these domains separately but not from a systemic perspective. Here we integrate bilateral trade in natural gas, nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers, and eleven staple crops accounting for approximately 70% of plant-based calories into a cascading-impact model spanning 208 countries, 20 geopolitical blocs, and the period 1992-2023. Under complete trade isolation, up to 22% of global caloric consumption would be lost, with a peak in the most recent evaluated years. Structural vulnerabilities vary greatly. Regions largely lacking some parts of the supply chain face near-total crop supply collapse, while few countries can cover the whole nexus through domestic resource endowments and production capacities. Temporal trends highlight a substantial increase in vulnerability globally, most prominently in the EU with a near two-fold increase since the 1990s. Market power is most concentrated and most volatile in the upstream gas and mineral-fertilizer layers, from which shocks propagate downstream. Food stocks provide only limited resilience with half of humanity living in countries disposing of stock lasting less than three months. Our results identify the upstream supply chains as the structural bottlenecks of the global agrifood system and propose leverage points to enhance resilience. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.06411 |
| By: | Juan Juan Cai (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Yicong Lin (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Julia Schaumburg (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Chenhui Wang (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We propose a nonparametric framework for estimating the extremal index that captures the persistence of extreme observations. The framework provides unified and simple procedures for verifying the well-known local dependence condition $D^{(d)}(u_n)$, which characterizes the extremal index yet is often assessed through heuristic checks, and for selecting $d$ (a key parameter for estimation) when the condition holds. Under a general ω-mixing condition, we establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator and prove the consistency of both the tuning parameter selection and the verification procedure for the $D^{(d)}(u_n)$ condition. Simulation studies show improved performance relative to two commonly used methods in terms of empirical mean squared errors. We analyze summer apparent temperature data for nine European cities from 1940 to 2025. The results show strong evidence of persistence in extreme temperatures for all cities, with such extremes typically lasting at least two days. The probability of two-day extreme-temperature events is two to four times higher in the most recent three decades relative to 1940–1974. |
| Keywords: | Extremal index, extremal serial dependence, nonparametric, heatwaves |
| JEL: | C01 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260002 |
| By: | Jeoffrey Dehez (UR ETTIS - Environnement, territoires en transition, infrastructures, sociétés - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sandrine Lyser (UR ETTIS - Environnement, territoires en transition, infrastructures, sociétés - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Bruno Castelle (EPOC - Earth and Planetary Observation Centre - University of Stirling) |
| Abstract: | Nous appliquons des méthodes de la statistique exploratoire multidimensionnelle aux données d'une enquête transversale collectées sur une plage du sud-ouest de la France pour montrer comment les associations entre l'attitude vis-à-vis du risque, les connaissances et les comportements des baigneurs à l'océan dessinent différents rapports aux risques vis-à-vis de la baignade. Plus que l'information sur les dangers à l'océan, le niveau de natation dont les enquêtés pensent disposer joue un rôle central dans les arbitrages face au risque, en particulier pour se baigner sans avoir pied. Nous identifions sept groupes d'individus qui se distinguent dans leur rapport au risque de baignade. Si nos résultats confirment les hypothèses traditionnelles sur l'influence du genre, ils invitent à nuancer les effets de l'âge ou de la familiarité aux lieux. Cette diversité des profils pose finalement la question de l'articulation entre les différents messages de prévention à diffuser au sein d'une même plage. |
| Keywords: | comportements, connaissances, attitudes, risques, baignade |
| Date: | 2026–03–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05561473 |
| By: | De Ponti, Santiago Esteban; Balaine, Lorraine; Buckley, Cathal; McGuire, Ryan |
| Abstract: | Although livestock production is a cornerstone of European agriculture, different challenges threaten its sustainability. Established monitoring frameworks have long informed assessments of profitability but may not capture the full set of contemporary economic issues. This study aims at improving measurements of the economic sustainability of European livestock production to better align them with current policy needs. A multi-step participatory approach is proposed. First, 17 experts were interviewed, and thematic analysis was conducted to derive impact categories. Second, these categories were prioritised using an internal stakeholders survey. Third, new indicators were developed for the selected categories following different indicator development strategies. The thematic analysis identified contemporary opportunities and challenges, linked to twelve impact categories with potential for new indicators development. Challenges for further indicator development were identified. The top three impact categories ranked through the survey were compliance costs, resilience, and risk management. For compliance costs, an objective-driven approach was used to develop an indicator measuring the administrative burden associated with regulatory compliance. For resilience, a method-driven approach adapted existing resilience frameworks to livestock systems. For risk management, a data-driven approach was followed, leveraging variables available in existing monitoring systems. These indicators contribute to improving the monitoring of economic sustainability in European livestock systems and support the assessment of evolving CAP objectives. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397900 |
| By: | Fjærvik, Thomas Michael (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Hølleland, Sondre Nedreås (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the optimal allocation of offshore wind farms along the Norwegian coast in light of the Norwegian Government’s objective to develop 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2040. Because wind power is inherently variable and expensive to store, we focus on maximizing base load production by identifying portfolios of wind farm locations that perform best in low-wind scenarios. Using wind speed data from the high-resolution NORA3-WP dataset for 20 candidate regions, we model marginal wind speed dynamics through seasonal ARMA processes and capture spatial dependence using a vine copula. This framework enables the simulation of 10 000 years of synthetic windspeed and corresponding power-output data. We then solve a constrained portfolio optimization problem that maximizes expected production in the lower 12% quantile of the joint power distribution, subject to sparsity constraints that limit development to five sites. The results show that spatial diversification can substantially stabilize base load wind power output. This paper thus adds to an existing quantitative foundation for offshore wind planning under production variability and spatial dependence. |
| Keywords: | Offshore wind power; conditional value-at-risk; spatial diversification; energy system planning |
| JEL: | C15 C32 C61 Q40 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2026_001 |
| By: | Schenker, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Die Energiewende tritt in eine Phase, in der Verbraucher/innen selbst zu zentralen Akteuren werden, da Klimapolitik nun direkt in deren Entscheidungen hineinwirkt. Aus ökonomischer Sicht gilt die Bepreisung von Treibhausgasemissionen als das effizienteste Instrument, das in Europa bislang in erster Linie in Energie- und Industriesektoren eingesetzt wurde. Da mit einigem Erfolg: Seit dem Start des europäischen Emissionshandelssystems (EU ETS) im Jahre 2005 sind die Emissionen in den regulierten Sektoren um etwa 51 Prozent gesunken. Durch die Ausweitung des Emissionshandels auf den Gebäude- und Verkehrssektor über das zweite Emissionshandelssystem (EU ETS2), voraussichtlich im Jahr 2028, wird ein zentraler Pfeiler der Energiewende für die Haushalte direkter spürbar. Modellrechnungen erwarten Preisen zwischen 100 und 300 Euro pro Tonne CO2 für die erste Hälfte der 2030er Jahre (siehe Abbildung 1), was einer ungefähren Verdoppelung bis Verfünffachung gegenüber den heutigen Preisen entspricht. Damit werden Kauf- und Investitionsentscheidungen von Haushalten zu entscheidenden Faktoren für den Erfolg der Energiewende, aber auch der dem Wahlerfolg von Parteien, weil sozial- und verteilungspolitische Aspekte der Klimapolitik in den Fokus rücken. Maßnahmen mit spürbaren Belastungen sind politisch nur tragfähig, wenn sie als legitim wahrgenommen werden. Werden Belastungen als unfair wahrgenommen, kann die Akzeptanz schnell sinken oder gar kippen. Dieser Policy Brief erläutert die Evidenz hinter diesen Zusammenhängen und diskutiert politische Handlungsoptionen, die diese Aspekte mitberücksichtigen. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:340877 |
| By: | Simon Baumgartner; Jakob Conradi; Thomas Schober; Alex Stomper; Rudolf Winter-Ebmer |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how quasi-fixed employment responds to labor productivity risk. We use highly granular data on small firms employing workers whose productivity depends on weather conditions. This allows us to analyze effects of exogenous fluctuations in labor productivity risk, induced by weather risk. We find that the risk reduces firms' quasi-fixed employment, with a stronger effect in locations where regional banks have relatively little equity capital. We also find that in these locations the banks' borrowers receive less liquidity from their banks if the locations are subject to adverse weather shocks. Bank capitalization influences small firms' capacity to take labor productivity risk by changing their access to liquidity "insurance". Well-capitalized banks support economic adaptation to weather-induced labor productivity risk. |
| Keywords: | Labor productivity, risk sharing, weather risk, quasi-fixed employment |
| JEL: | J23 J24 G21 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2549 |
| By: | Spiller, Beia (Resources for the Future); Whitlock, Zach; Kota, Ambarish; DeAngeli, Emma (Resources for the Future); Lohawala, Nafisa (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Critical minerals, such as lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements, are vital components of defense, energy, and transportation technologies. As demand for these technologies and their minerals grows, the geographic reality of where they are extracted, processed, and manufactured has drawn increasing attention. Though the United States has some mineral reserves and strategic industrial policies for certain base metals, its participation in the mineral supply chain has declined over the past century, and market concentration in foreign supply has increased concerns about exposure to supply disruptions.In response, recent administrations have established priorities around critical minerals and taken steps to mitigate supply risk, with the current administration taking a much more active role in advancing its critical minerals policy goals, including unprecedented investments in individual critical mineral mining and refining projects.We present new data that highlight the market and economic challenges to onshoring the critical mineral supply chain, noting the large technical, geographic, and economic differences across minerals. We then discuss workforce, infrastructure, and social license challenges to increasing domestic production, along with the various federal efforts to ensure secure access to mineral supply. Finally, we present a framework for how investments can be prioritized to maximize the efficacy of federal expenditures and reduce supply risk and how policies can be evaluated in their support of these efforts. We conclude by identifying research gaps and proposing directions for future work to support evidence based industrial policy and improve the resilience, competitiveness, and social legitimacy of the federal critical minerals strategy. |
| Date: | 2026–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-26-08 |