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on Environmental Economics |
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Issue of 2020‒05‒18
fifty-four papers chosen by Francisco S. Ramos Universidade Federal de Pernambuco |
| By: | Sharif, Arshian; Saha, Shrabani; Campbell, Neil; Sinha, Avik; Ibrahiem, Dalia M. |
| Abstract: | International tourism as a cause of global warming is a controversial and topical issue. Here, we use the novel Morlet wavelet time-frequency approach to gain insight into the dynamic nexus between tourism, renewable energy consumption, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions for China using annual data over the period 1974-2016. The techniques we use include continuous wavelet power spectrum, the wavelet coherency, and the partial and the multiple wavelet coherence for time-frequency decomposition that can capture local oscillatory components in time series. Our findings support the hypothesis that tourism can cause increased energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in China, which challenges the sustainable tourism development goal. However, on the positive side, the relationship between tourism and renewable energy consumption is shown to facilitate reduced environmental degradation in the medium-long run. |
| Keywords: | Energy consumption; renewable energy; CO2 emission; tourism; partial and multiple wavelet coherence; country study |
| JEL: | L8 L83 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99985&r=all |
| By: | Hambulo Ngoma; Paul Samboko; Chewe Nkonde; Davison Gumbo |
| Abstract: | The potential of a sustainable forest resource base to contribute to improved livelihoods is central in the development discourse. In sub-Saharan Africa and Zambia in particular, the missing piece in this narrative has been the availability of reliable data estimates of the extent to which forests contribute to key economic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP). In this paper, we augment recent empirical strides that have been made in Zambia to estimate direct use values of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) by estimating the indirect and non-use values of these products. Our data are drawn from a primary contingent valuation survey of 352 households randomly selected from seven rural districts of Zambia. The survey elicited households’ willingness to pay (WTP) to preserve NTFPs for their indirect and non-use benefits (mostly ecosystem services) using the double bounded dichotomous question format. The current study addresses the following key questions: 1) What are the key indirect and non-use benefits for NTFPs in Zambia? 2) What is the economic value of the indirect and non-use benefits for NTFPs in Zambia? 3) What drives WTP to preserve NTFPs in Zambia? We highlight the key findings, conclusion and policy implications in turn. Key Findings Among interviewed households, about 60 and 30 % consider erosion control and climate regulation, respectively, as the two most important indirect-use benefits of, or ecosystem services associated with NTFPs in Zambia. On the other hand, pollination and water purification are correspondingly ranked third and fourth. We find similar results even after disaggregating the data by district and sex of the household head, and whether or not the household is environmentally aware, i.e., willing to pay to preserve NTFPs. About 60% of the respondents consider preservation of natural resources for future generations (bequest value) as the most important non-use benefit of NTFPs. The other non-use benefits of NTFPs—existence and altruistic values—are considered paramount by about 30 and 10% correspondingly of the surveyed households, respectively. These results are consistent at district level. Over time, NTFPs have become more difficult to collect or extract due to increased walking distances to points of extraction, with a marked increase in the effort and labour required to collect even small usable quantities. About 70% of the households in the sample were willing to pay to preserve NTFPs for their indirect and non-use benefits, suggesting that incentive based schemes may still have a role in conservation. Our empirical estimates of factors conjectured to drive WTP suggest that landholding size and the utilization of NTFPs are negatively associated with WTP to preserve NTFPs. Thus, non-binding land and access constraints may stifle conservation if considered in their own silos. Conversely, education level of the household head, household income, adult equivalents, distance from the homestead to the nearest main source for NTFPs, and considering the presented contingent valuation method (CVM) scenario as realistic, increases the WTP amount. Equally, considering bequest and altruistic values as most important non- use NTFP benefits relative to existence value is positively associated with the WTP amount. These findings suggest that education and environmentally friendly pro-social behaviors may be good levers for conservation. Overall, we estimate that households in the survey areas are willing to pay about ZMW164 (USD18) per hectare per year or ZMW485 (USD54) per household per year to preserve NTFPs. This translates to about USD48 million (using 2010 constant prices) at national level, giving an indicative total economic value of NTFPs of USD73 million in real terms (if we account for the direct-use benefits estimated by Dlamini and Samboko (2017)) at national level. Conclusion and Policy Implications Our main conclusion is that NTFPs have great potential to contribute to the economic wellbeing of rural households and the country in general. After accounting for the direct, indirect and non-use benefits, our conservative estimates suggest that NTFPs can potentially contribute about 0.3% to the gross domestic product in Zambia. This estimate is higher than previously thought and demonstrates, in line with extant literature, that considering only the direct use benefits underestimates the economic value of natural resources. Three main implications are as follows: Household and community engagements in natural resource management should be strengthened through education and awareness campaigns on the threats to forest resource use and how these can (should) be minimized in Zambia. This is necessary to promote environmentally friendly pro-social behavior and to create a citizenry that is environmentally aware—a necessary condition for sustainable natural resource use and management. The 0.3% potential contribution of non-timber forest products to gross domestic product should raise the impetus and fast-track implementation of sustainable forest management in Zambia, and should inform forestry policy more broadly. Because the majority of the households in the sample were willing to pay to preserve non- timber forest products implies that conservation can be enhanced with the ‘right’ incentive structures such as payments for ecosystem services. Questions on designs and modus operandi of such incentive schemes are empirical and remain the t-rex in the room. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303523&r=all |
| By: | Basu, Parantap (Durham University Business School, Durham University); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | We develop an endogenous growth model to address a long standing question whether sustainable green growth is feasible by re-allocating resource use between green (natural) and man-made (carbon intensive) capital. Although the model is general we relate it to the UK’s green growth policy objective. In our model, final output is produced with two reproducible inputs, green and man-made capital. The growth of man-made capital causes depreciation of green capital via carbon emissions and related externalities which the private sector does not internalize. A benevolent government uses carbon taxes to encourage firms to substitute man-made capital with green capital in so far the production technology allows. Doing so, the damage to natural capital by emissions can be partly reversed through a lower socially optimal long run growth. The trade-off between environmental quality and long-run growth can be overcome by a pollution abatement technology intervention. However, if the source of pollution is consumption, the optimal carbon tax is zero and there is no trade-off between environment policy and growth. A corrective consumption tax is then needed to finance a public investment programme for replenishing the green capital destroyed by consumption based emissions. |
| Keywords: | Green growth; Sustainability; Carbon tax; Clean growth; Resource substitution |
| JEL: | E10 O30 O40 Q20 |
| Date: | 2020–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2020_011&r=all |
| By: | Servaas Storm (Delft University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | The European UnionÕs Green Deal, a Û1 trillion, 10-year investment plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% in 2030 (relative to 1990 levels), has been hailed as the first comprehensive plan to achieve climate neutrality at a continental scale. The Deal also constitutes the UnionÕs new signature mission, providing it with a new raison dÕetre and a shared vision of green growth and prosperity for all. Because the stakes are high, a dispassionate, realistic look at the Green Deal is necessary to assess to what extent it reflects Ôwhat is politically attainableÕ and to what degree it does Ôwhat is requiredÕ in the face of continuous global warming. This paper considers the ambition, scale, substance and strategy of the Deal. It finds that the Green Deal falls short of Ôwhat is imperativeÕ but also of Ôwhat is politically possibleÕ. By choosing to make the Green Deal dependent on global finance, the European Commission itself closes down all policy space for systemic change as well as for ambitious green macroeconomics and green industrial policies, which would enable achieving climate neutrality in a socially and economically inclusive manner. Hence, Otto von Bismarck would have been as unpersuaded by the Green Deal proposal as Greta Thunberg, who dismisses it as mere Òempty wordsÓ. |
| Keywords: | European Green Deal; green finance; climate transition; green macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E60 H50 O52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:117&r=all |
| By: | Paul A. Hindsley; O. Ashton Morgan |
| Abstract: | Recent research in the social psychology literature suggests that personally held beliefs may play a pivotal role in individuals’ acceptance of environmental policy. We extend previous work in this area by providing a contingent valuation method (CVM) framework that examines the interaction between cultural worldviews and willingness to pay for a policy that mitigates environmental risk. Results from a bivariate probit model indicate that individuals with communitarian and egalitarian worldviews are willing to pay significantly more for the environmental policy. We further investigate the role of cultural worldview on individuals’ support for, and valuation of, environmental policies that differ by their underlying cause. Again, cultural worldview is important and point estimates of mean willingness to pay increase if the proposed policy is designed to mitigate the effects of climate change-related issues as opposed to a more local pollution threat. Finally, results indicate that cultural worldviews also influence respondents’ perceived consequentiality with potentially important ramifications for eliciting stated preferences in a CVM framework. Key Words: Contingent valuation; cultural worldview; willingness to pay; environmental policy |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:20-03&r=all |
| By: | Gaël Giraud; Antoine GODIN; Marie-Noëlle WOILLEZ |
| Abstract: | Increased knowledge about anthropogenic climate change has raised growing concerns about its potential catastrophic impacts on both ecosystems and human societies. Yet, several studies on damages induced on the economy by unmitigated global warming have proposed a much less worrying image of the future, with only a few points decrease in the world GDP per capita by the end of the century, even for high levels of warming. Here we consider two different empirically estimated damage functions, linking GDP growth or GDP level to temperature, and apply them to a global cooling of -4°C in 2100, corresponding to a return to glacial conditions. We show that the alleged impact on average GDP per capita is comprised between -1.8% and +36%. These results are then compared to the new environmental conditions faced by humanity, taking the last glacial maximum as a reference. The modeled impacts on the world GDP appear clearly unrealistic given the magnitude of climate and environmental changes recorded for that period. We therefore conclude that, if such damage functions cannot reasonably be trusted for a cooling outside their calibration range, nor should they be considered as plausible for the future climate projection under massive greenhouse gas emissions. |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en9474&r=all |
| By: | Mulako Kabisa; Brian P. Mulenga; Hambulo Ngoma; Mercy Mupeta Kandulu |
| Abstract: | In Zambia, agricultural land expansion is responsible for 90 percent of forest cover loss (Mabeta, Mweemba, and Mwitwa 2018), followed by settlement expansion and infrastructure development; its annual deforestation estimated between 167,000 and 300,000 hectares is among the highest worldwide. Charcoal is becoming an increasingly important driver of deforestation and forest degradation due to its increasing role as a cooking and space-heating energy source, predominantly among urban households. The erratic and limited supply of electricity in recent times, coupled with increased electricity tariffs, limited access, acceptability, and prohibitive costs of alternative energy sources has increased urban demand for charcoal—a situation likely to continue in the foreseeable future. The heightened demand for charcoal, which will continue to increase, has far-reaching environmental consequences. This study sought to find ways in which the charcoal value chain (CVC) can be made more sustainable in Zambia, with a view of reducing charcoal-induced deforestation and global warming. It meant to answer the questions of how charcoal production and trade is governed, lessons learned from constraints experienced in making charcoal production sustainable, and the opportunities for “greening” the charcoal value chain1 . This was done through extensive review of relevant literature, both grey and published, the 2015 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) data, and key informant interviews (KII). Zambia has a comprehensive policy framework on sustainable management of forestry resources, which recognizes that increased charcoal use is driven by the desire to meet household energy needs and is a livelihood option for many of the poor. The main challenges in sustainably managing resources and greening the CVC include the unorganised nature of production making it difficult to organise and monitor production, limited financing, and weak enforcement and compliance with regulations. There are also cultural myths associated with the use of charcoal to cook food, with some having a clear preference for using it to cook traditional food because it gives the food good taste and/or texture (Tembo, Mulenga, and Sitko 2015; Chidumayo 2002). There are many opportunities to implement sustainable charcoal production for the short- and medium term including financing sustainable charcoal production interventions to facilitate: 1) forming charcoal associations that can be the eyes on the ground for the Forestry Department; 2) sensitization campaigns on sustainably produced charcoal and its importance; 3) providing support to producers by setting up woodlots and nurseries for fast growing species with irrigation support for biomass; 4) support for the development of improved kilns; 5) forestry extension to raise awareness on sustainable production practices and the rules and regulations on licensing; 6) promotion of efficient cookstoves for the general public; and 7) investigating the seepage of charcoal into the region—an area that is still overlooked as a driver of production. In the long term, there is a need to provide alternative livelihoods appropriate for the agroecological zones to help producers transition from charcoal production, because poverty and lack of employment are some of the main drivers for charcoal production. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2020–01–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303526&r=all |
| By: | SIngh Verma, Juhee; Sharma, Pritee |
| Abstract: | Global climate change will have maximum damaging effect on the vulnerable population living in the global south, mainly the small farmers, traditional forest dwellers and coastal communities. Small farms of less than 1 hectare, estimated to be around 410 millions worldwide, are in areas of high poverty density. Any effort to achieve the “no poverty” goal of SDG and increasing their welfare will require a synergistic effort on part of climate change mitigation and adaptation, achieving sustainable livelihoods and improving health and nutrition indicators of these people. In this context, organic cultivation acquires special importance due to its climate mitigation potential. It balances and corrects nutrient cycles, carbon sequestration and reduces carbon emissions from chemical farming. It’s poverty reduction potential is due to reduction in the input cost for the farmer, better prices in the market, improvement of health as contact with chemical fertilizers and pesticides reduces and nutrient rich food consumption. Organic cultivation acquires special relevance in context of countries like India where a large number of farmers are small and marginal. they currently face adverse market conditions where the input cost of farming is higher than the prices at which the market values their produce. Organic cultivation can reduce this cost and increase the profitability of farming for them. This paper analysis the current literature related to organic farming and its future potential for increasing welfare of Indian farmers most of which are small and marginal. |
| Keywords: | Organic, Zero budget natural farming, Climate change, Small farmer |
| JEL: | Q15 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99994&r=all |
| By: | P\'ia Amigo; Sebasti\'an Cea-Echenique; Felipe Feijoo |
| Abstract: | In the context of the Paris Agreement, Chile has pledged to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHG) intensity by at least 30% below 2007 levels by 2030, and to phase out coal as a energy source by 2040, among other strategies. In pursue of these goals, Chile has implemented a $5 per tonne of CO2 emission tax, first of its kind in Latin America. However, such a low price has proven to be insufficient. In our work, we study an alternative approach for capping and pricing carbon emissions in the Chilean electric sector; the cap and trade paradigm. We model the Chilean electric market (generators and emissions auctioneer) as a two stage capacity expansion equilibrium problem, where we allow future investment and trading of emission permits among generator agents. The model studies generation and future investments in the Chilean electric sector in two regimes of demand: deterministic and stochastic. We show that the current Chilean Greenhouse Gases (GHG) intensity pledge does not drive an important shift in the future Chilean electric matrix. To encourage a shift to greener technologies, a more stringent carbon budget must be considered, resulting in a carbon price approximately ten times higher than the present one. We also show that achieving the emissions reduction goal does not necessarily results in further reductions of carbon generation, or phasing out coal in the longer term. Finally, we demonstrate that under technology change costs reductions, higher demand scenarios will relax the need for stringent carbon budgets to achieve new renewable energy investments and hence meet the Chilean pledges. These results suggest that some aspects of the Chilean pledge require further analysis, of the economic impact, particularly with the recent announcement of achieving carbon neutrality towards 2050. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2005.03843&r=all |
| By: | Mats Kröger; Sun Xi; Olga Chiappinelli; Marius Clemens; Nils May; Karsten Neuhoff; Jörn Richstein |
| Abstract: | Already after the financial crisis in 2008/2009 there was a debate on whether elements aiming at sustainable development can be part of the stimulus packages and support the recovery of the economy. Despite the instinct of policy makers to prioritise battle-tested policies during a crisis, significant levels and different types of climate-friendly components were integrated in the 2009 stimulus packages across the globe. The experience from the past crisis proves that such climate-oriented economic stimulus policies not only raise investments with benefits for economic output and jobs in the near term, but can also lay the groundwork for long-term innovation and economic development aligned with environmental constraints. By introducing policies such as Contracts for Difference for low-carbon industrial processes and renewable energy, and Green Public Procurement, governments can further ensure that their stimulus packages are transformative. Hence, “green stimuli” have the capacity to boost economic recovery also during the current Corona crisis. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwfoc:4en&r=all |
| By: | Sharif, Arshian; Baris-Tuzemen, Ozge; Uzuner, Gizem; Ozturk, Ilhan; Sinha, Avik |
| Abstract: | The current study re-investigates the impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on Turkey’s ecological footprint. This study applies Quantile Autoregressive Lagged (QARDL) approach for the period of 1965Q1-2017Q4. We further apply Granger-causality in Quantiles to check the causal relationship among the variables. The results of QARDL show that error correction parameter is statistically significant with the expected negative sign for all quantiles which confirm an existence of significant reversion to the long-term equilibrium connection between the related variables and ecological footprint in Turkey. In particular, the outcomes suggested that renewable energy decrease ecological footprint in long-run on each quantile. However, the results of economic growth and non-renewable energy impact positively to ecological footprint in long-short run period at all quantiles. Finally, we tested the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and the results of QARDL confirmed the EKC in Turkey. Furthermore, the findings of causal investigation from Granger-causality in quantiles evident the presence of a bi-directional causal relationship between renewable energy consumption, energy consumption and economic growth with ecological footprint in the Turkish economy. |
| Keywords: | renewable energy; EKC; ecological footprint; Turkey; QARDL |
| JEL: | Q5 Q53 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100044&r=all |
| By: | Oskar LECUYER; Esperanza GONZALEZ-MAHECHA |
| Abstract: | Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has the least carbon-intensive electricity sector of any region in the world, as hydropower remains the largest source of electricity. But are existing plans consistent with the climate change goals laid out in the Paris Agreement? In this paper, we assess committed CO2 emissions from existing and planned power plants in LAC. Those are the carbon emissions that would result from the operation of fossil-fueled power plants during their typical lifetime. Committed emissions from existing power plants are close to 6.9 Gt of CO2. Building and operating all power plants that are announced, authorized, being procured, or under construction would result in 6.7 Gt of CO2 of additional commitments (for a total of 13.6 Gt of CO2). Committed emissions are above average IPCC assessments of cumulative emissions from power generation in LAC consistent with climate targets. The paper concludes that 10% to 16% of existing fossil-fueled power plants in the region would need to be “stranded” to meet average carbon budgets from IPCC. Our results suggest that international climate change commitments are material even in developing countries with low baseline emissions. |
| Keywords: | Amérique latine, Guadeloupe, Guyane française, Haïti, Martinique, Suriname |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–10–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en10376&r=all |
| By: | Etienne ESPAGNE; Yoro DIALLO |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to examine farm household-level impacts of weather extreme events on Vietnamese rice technical efficiency. Vietnam is considered among the most vulnerable countries to climate change, and the Vietnamese economy is highly dependent on rice production that is strongly affected by climate change. A stochastic frontier analysis is applied with census panel data and weather data from 2010 to 2014 to estimate these impacts while controlling for both adaptation strategy and household characteristics. Also, this study combines these estimated marginal effects with future climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) to project the potential impact of hot temperatures in 2050 on rice technical efficiency. We find that weather shocks measured by the occurrence of floods, typhoons and droughts negatively affect technical efficiency. Also, additional days with a temperature above 31°C dampen technical efficiency and the negative effect is increasing with temperature. For instance, a one day increase in the bin [33°C-34°C] ([35°C and more[) lessen technical efficiency between 6.84 (2.82) and 8.05 (3.42) percentage points during the dry (wet) season. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en9476&r=all |
| By: | Mishra, Shekhar; Sinha, Avik; Sharif, Arshian; Mohd Suki, Norazah |
| Abstract: | The present paper endeavors to analyze and provide fresh insights from the dynamic association between tourism, transportation, economic growth and carbon emission in the United States. The analysis employs a novel Morlet’s Wavelet Approach. Precisely, the paper implements Partial and Multiple Wavelet Coherence techniques to the monthly data spanning from 2001-2017. From the frequency domain point of view, the study discovers remarkable wavelet coherence and robust lead and lag linkages. The analysis discovers significant progress in variables over frequency and time. The variables display strong but inconsistent associations between them. There exist a strong co-movement among the variables considered, which is not equal across the time scales. The study may help the policymakers and regulars to devise strategies and formulate policies pertaining to tourism development, which can contribute towards environmentally sustainable economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Tourism; Transportation; CO2 Emissions; Partial Wavelet Coherence; Multiple Wavelet Coherence |
| JEL: | L8 L83 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99984&r=all |
| By: | Elkerbout, Milan; Egenhofer, Christian; Núñez Ferrer, Jorge; Catuti, Mihnea; Kustova, Irina; Rizos, Vasileios |
| Abstract: | Climate change policy cannot be the first priority of the EU for the immediate future. However, in spite of the corona-crisis the urgency of climate change mitigation has not disappeared. The post-corona recovery can both put the EU’s decarbonisation progress back on track – after low-carbon investments will inevitably take a hit – but the EU’s Green Deal proposals can likewise support the general economic recovery. It will be important to ensure that recovery measures are compatible with global climate change and European Green Deal priorities so that stimulus money will flow to economic activities that have a place in a climate-neutral world. As time passes, the re-launch may actually offer a unique opportunity for the EU to live up to the Green Deal’s promise of economic modernisation along the Paris decarbonisation objectives. The period we have until the relaunch should be used to develop a new agenda. These ideas will not per se be off-the-shelf but go beyond current solutions for decarbonisation. Instead of tinkering around the margins, the EU should focus on transformational technologies, and for example go big on low-carbon infrastructure, efficient buildings, and lead markets to boost demand for climate-neutral industry. |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eps:cepswp:26869&r=all |
| By: | Never, Babette; Albert, Jose Ramon; Fuhrmann, Hanna; Gsell, Sebastian; Jaramillo, Miguel; Kuhn, Sascha; Senadza, Bernardin |
| Abstract: | As households move out of poverty, spending patterns change. This is good news from a development perspective, but changing consumer behaviour may imply substantially more carbon emissions. The lifestyle choices of the emerging middle classes are key, now and in the future. This paper explores the consumption patterns of the emerging middle classes and their carbon intensity, using unique micro data from household surveys conducted in Ghana, Peru and the Philippines. We find that carbon-intensive consumption increases with wealth in all three countries, and most sharply from the fourth to the fifth middle-class quintile due to changes in travel behaviour, asset ownership and use. In Peru, this shift in the upper-middle-class quintiles translates to annual incomes of roughly USD 11,000-17,000 purchasing power parity. Environmental knowledge and concern are fairly evenly spread at mid- to high levels and do lead to more easy-entry sustainable behaviours, but they do not decrease the level of carbon emissions. To some extent, a knowledge/concern-action gap exists. In our study, social status matters less than the literature claims. Our results have two implications. First, the differentiations between developing/developed countries in the global climate debate may be outdated: It is about being part of the global middle classes or not. Second, a positive spillover from existing easy-entry sustainable behaviours to a change in carbon-intensive consumption patterns needs policy support. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:132020&r=all |
| By: | Andrea Caravaggio; Mauro Sodini |
| Abstract: | Most of the theoretical contributions on the relationship between economy and environment assumes the environment as a good distributed homogeneously among the agents. The aim of this work is to weaken this hypothesis and to consider that the environment can have a local character even if conditioned through externalities by the choices made at global level. In particular, adapting the classical framework introduced in John and Pecchenino (1994) to analyze the dynamic relationship between environment and economic process, in this paper we propose an OLG agent-based model where the agents may have different initial environmental endowments, or may be heterogeneous in their preferences. What emerges is that, despite the attention devoted to local environmental aspects, the network externalities (determined through the scheme of Moore neighbourhoods) play a fundamental role in defining environmental dynamics and they may induce the emergence of chaotic dynamics. On the other hand, the heterogeneity of preferences and/or initial conditions plays an ambiguous role. In fact, depending on the weight of network externalities and the impact of consumption and/or defensive expenditures, heterogeneity may stabilize or destabilize the system. |
| Keywords: | Agent-Based Models; Overlapping Generations; Local Environment; Network Externalities |
| JEL: | C63 D62 O13 Q2 |
| Date: | 2020–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2020/257&r=all |
| By: | Villena, Mauricio |
| Abstract: | We formally study Pigouvian taxation in a duopoly market in which a CSR firm interacts with a profit maximizing firm. Unlike previous literature, we consider three different scenarios: (i) the CSR firm acts as a consumer-friendly firm, cares for not only its profits but also consumer surplus, as a proxy of its concern for its "stakeholders" or consumers; (ii) the CSR firm main objective is a combination of its own profit and the environment, caring for the environmental damage produced by the market in which it interacts; and (iii) the CSR firm is both consumer and environmental friendly. Finally, we compare the different Pigouvian rules derived with the first best competitive market solution and the monopoly/duopoly second best solutions. |
| Keywords: | Corporate social responsibility, consumer-friendly firm, environment-friendly firm, Mixed Duopoly, Emission Taxation |
| JEL: | H23 L13 L31 Q5 Q50 |
| Date: | 2019–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100035&r=all |
| By: | Hambulo Ngoma; Nicole M. Mason-Wardell; Paul C. Samboko; Peter Hangoma |
| Abstract: | Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an important component of policy options designed to sustainably increase agricultural productivity, build resilience to climate risks, and mitigate climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the uptake of common CSA practices such as conservation agriculture remains low and material constraint explanations (e.g., credit, market, labor, information) for this low uptake remain inadequate and unclear. Could behavioral traits or risk preferences play a role? We test the hypothesis that innate behavioral traits such as risk and time preferences play a role in CSA adoption and test whether adoption can be nudged using insurance and green subsidies. To do so, we use a series of incentivized field experiments with 323 randomly selected farmers in Zambia. We first conducted two games with each participant to elicit risk and time preference parameters. We then conducted three adoption games. In the first (base) game, participants decided whether to adopt CSA (conservation agriculture in this case) or conventional agriculture under various payoff scenarios. Returns to CSA and conventional agriculture varied depending on seasonal rainfall, and the realized seasonal rainfall was determined through a lottery (with a 25% chance of good rainfall) after participants had selected their preferred farming option (CSA or conventional agriculture). In the subsequent two games, we changed the payoff structures by augmenting CSA with rainfall insurance and a green subsidy, respectively. The green subsidy is an add-on incentive for farmers that adopt CSA. We compare adoption behavior under the base scenario to the CSA plus insurance scenario and the CSA plus subsidy scenario. We also use the elicited preference parameters from the time and risk preferences games to analyze their role in participants’ adoption decisions. Overall, we find that the majority of participants in our experiments are risk-averse and impatient, and that a larger proportion of women were more risk-averse and impatient than men. Risk aversion and impatience were negatively correlated with the likelihood of adopting CSA. Time and risk preferences were associated with the likelihood of switching adoption between the base and follow-on (augmented) games. For example, an increase in risk aversion increased the likelihood of switching from conservation agriculture in base games to conservation agriculture with insurance in follow-on games. Introducing insurance and green subsidies increased the level of adoption by 10 and 8 percentage points and the probability of adoption by approximately 6 – 12 percentage points. Whether these switch-up levels are high enough is an empirical question, but suggest that insurance and green subsidies are unlikely the panacea. Thus, although monetary returns matter in CSA adoption, non- pecuniary factors such as risk and time preferences also matter. These behavioral traits could partly explain the perceived low adoption of CSA practices such as conservation agriculture. Several factors including uninsured basis risk, trust in and how well farmers understand insurance and subsidy incentives, knowledge of the technology, and subjective perceptions of its riskiness influence adoption choices. Access to extension and subjective risk perceptions were stronger determinants of adoption in real life. Given our findings that more risk-averse individuals are less likely to adopt CSA, a practice that is intended to be risk-reducing, a key policy implication is the need for a retooling of both public and private extension services to better demonstrate and educate farmers on the risk-reducing effects of CSA practices such as conservation agriculture. Moreover, if insurance and subsidies are to be used successfully to nudge adoption, extension will need to educate farmers on the structure of and mechanisms for payouts. This is important to build trust in the incentive systems. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303060&r=all |
| By: | Hambulo Ngoma; Nicole M. Mason-Wardell; Paul C. Samboko; Peter Hangoma |
| Abstract: | Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an important component of policy options designed to sustainably increase agricultural productivity, build resilience to climate risks, and mitigate climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the uptake of common CSA practices such as conservation agriculture remains low and material constraint explanations (e.g., credit, market, labor, information) for this low uptake remain inadequate and unclear. Could behavioral traits or risk preferences play a role? We test the hypothesis that innate behavioral traits such as risk and time preferences play a role in CSA adoption and test whether adoption can be nudged using insurance and green subsidies. To do so, we use a series of incentivized field experiments with 323 randomly selected farmers in Zambia. We first conducted two games with each participant to elicit risk and time preference parameters. We then conducted three adoption games. In the first (base) game, participants decided whether to adopt CSA (conservation agriculture in this case) or conventional agriculture under various payoff scenarios. Returns to CSA and conventional agriculture varied depending on seasonal rainfall, and the realized seasonal rainfall was determined through a lottery (with a 25% chance of good rainfall) after participants had selected their preferred farming option (CSA or conventional agriculture). In the subsequent two games, we changed the payoff structures by augmenting CSA with rainfall insurance and a green subsidy, respectively. The green subsidy is an add-on incentive for farmers that adopt CSA. We compare adoption behavior under the base scenario to the CSA plus insurance scenario and the CSA plus subsidy scenario. We also use the elicited preference parameters from the time and risk preferences games to analyze their role in participants’ adoption decisions. Overall, we find that the majority of participants in our experiments are risk-averse and impatient, and that a larger proportion of women were more risk-averse and impatient than men. Risk aversion and impatience were negatively correlated with the likelihood of adopting CSA. Time and risk preferences were associated with the likelihood of switching adoption between the base and follow- on (augmented) games. For example, an increase in risk aversion increased the likelihood of switching from conservation agriculture in base games to conservation agriculture with insurance in follow-on games. Introducing insurance and green subsidies increased the level of adoption by 10 and 8 percentage points and the probability of adoption by approximately 6 – 12 percentage points. Whether these switch-up levels are high enough is an empirical question, but suggest that insurance and green subsidies are unlikely the panacea. Thus, although monetary returns matter in CSA adoption, non- pecuniary factors such as risk and time preferences also matter. These behavioral traits could partly explain the perceived low adoption of CSA practices such as conservation agriculture. Several factors including uninsured basis risk, trust in and how well farmers understand insurance and subsidy incentives, knowledge of the technology, and subjective perceptions of its riskiness influence adoption choices. Access to extension and subjective risk perceptions were stronger determinants of adoption in real life. Given our findings that more risk-averse individuals are less likely to adopt CSA, a practice that is intended to be risk-reducing, a key policy implication is the need for a retooling of both public and private extension services to better demonstrate and educate farmers on the risk-reducing effects of CSA practices such as conservation agriculture. Moreover, if insurance and subsidies are to be used successfully to nudge adoption, extension will need to educate farmers on the structure of and mechanisms for payouts. This is important to build trust in the incentive systems. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303524&r=all |
| By: | Wehrmann, Dorothea |
| Abstract: | Global agreements such as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Climate Agreement illustrate the need for transnational cooperation to solve complex and interrelated challenges that affect humanity at large. But how can transnational cooperation be more successful in times of rapid global changes? This discussion paper shows that many of the premises discussed in the literature on transnational cooperation and on multistakeholder partnerships mirror the praise and concerns brought forward in regard to the Arctic Council as a case of success. At the same time, particularly by advancing its process management, transnational cooperation under the auspices of the Arctic Council could be furthered. This study proceeds as follows. It introduces and compares different approaches in global governance research that are considered as strengthening transnational cooperation and critically explores in how far the Arctic Council can be considered an example to learn from for encouraging transnational cooperation. From the case of the Arctic Council the study further expands on the premises brought forward in the literature and suggests to pay more attention to the dimension of knowledge as particularly in times of rapid global changes a shared understanding of challenges is an important basis for transnational cooperation. |
| Keywords: | Arctic Council,transnational cooperation,institutional success factors,global common good |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:122020&r=all |
| By: | Brodeur, Abel (University of Ottawa); Cook, Nikolai (University of Ottawa); Wright, Taylor (University of Ottawa) |
| Abstract: | In response to COVID-19, dramatic safer-at-home policies were implemented. The understanding of their impacts on social distancing, travel and pollution is in its infancy. We pair a differences-in-differences framework and synthetic control methods with rich cellular tracking and high frequency air pollution data. We find that state and U.S. county safer-at-home policies are successful in encouraging social distance; beginning the day of the policy trips outside the home are sharply decreased while time in residence rises sharply. With less vehicle traffic, we find: a 50% reduction in vehicular collisions; an approximately 25% reduction in Particulate Matter (PM2.5) concentrations; and a reduction of the incidence of county-days with an air quality index of code yellow or above by two-thirds. We calculate that the benefits from avoided car collisions could range from $7 billion to $24 billion while the benefits from reduced pollution could range from $650 million to $13.8 billion. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, safer-at-home, lockdowns, pollution, traffic, car crashes |
| JEL: | P48 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13255&r=all |
| By: | Kenneth HOUNGBEDJI; Isabelle TRITSCH |
| Abstract: | To allow for the production of timber while preserving conservation values, forestry regulations in the Congo Basin have made Forest Management Plans (FMPs) mandatory in logging concessions. This paper uses original high resolution maps of forest-cover changes and official records on the activities of logging concessions to analyze the impact of FMPs on deforestation in this region. We apply quasi-experimental and difference-in-difference approaches to evaluate the change in deforestation in concessions that implemented an FMP. We find that between 2000 and 2010, deforestation was 74% lower in concessions with an FMP compared to others. Building on a theory of change, further analyses revealed that this decrease in deforestation takes at least five years to occur, and is highest around communities located in and nearby logging concessions and in areas close to previous deforestation. These findings suggest that FMPs reduce deforestation by allowing concessions to rotate cycles of timber extraction, thereby avoiding the overexploitation of areas that were previously logged, and by the better regulation of access to concessions by closing former logging roads to limit illegal activities such as slash and burn agriculture, hunting and the illegal harvest of timber or fuelwood. |
| Keywords: | Cameroun, Congo, Gabon, République centrafricaine |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en9560&r=all |
| By: | Matthew A Cole (University of Birmingham); Robert J R Elliott (University of Birmingham); Bowen Liu (University of Birmingham) |
| Abstract: | We quantify the impact of the Wuhan Covid-19 lockdown on concentrations of four air pollutants using a two-step approach. First, we use machine learning to remove the confounding effects of weather conditions on pollution concentrations. Second, we use a new Augmented Synthetic Control Method (Ben-Michael et al. 2019) to estimate the impact of the lockdown on weather normalised pollution relative to a control group of cities that were not in lockdown. We find NO2 concentrations fell by as much as 24 ug/m3 during the lockdown (a reduction of 63% from the pre-lockdown level), while PM10 concentrations fell by a similar amount but for a shorter period. The lockdown had no discernible impact on concentrations of SO2 or CO. We calculate that the reduction of NO2 concentrations could have prevented as many as 496 deaths in Wuhan city, 3,368 deaths in Hubei province and 10,822 deaths in China as a whole. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, Covid-19, machine learning, synthetic control, health. |
| JEL: | Q53 Q52 I18 I15 C21 C23 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bir:birmec:20-09&r=all |
| By: | Simone BERTOLI |
| Abstract: | We use a multilevel approach to characterize the relationship between weather shocks and (internal and international) migration intentions. We combine individual survey data on migration intentions with measures of localized weather shocks for Western African countries over 2008-2016. A meta-analysis on results from about 310,000 regressions is conducted to identify the specification of weather anomalies that maximizes the goodness of fit of our empirical model. We then use this best specification to document heterogeneous mobility responses to weather shocks, which can be due to differences in long-term climate conditions, migration perceptions, or adaptation capabilities. We find that droughts are associated with a higher probability of migration intentions in Senegal, Niger and Ivory Coast. The effect on international migration intentions are only significant in Niger. These effects are amplified, but qualitatively similar, when restricting the sample to rural low-skilled respondents. |
| Keywords: | Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Mauritanie, Niger, Sénégal |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–10–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en10272&r=all |
| By: | Laura Schmitt-Olabisi; Saweda Liverpool- Tasie; Robert Onyeneke; Onyinye Choko; Bukola Osuntade; Awa Sanou; Udita Singa; Stella Chude Chiemela |
| Abstract: | Key Findings -There is no ‘silver bullet’ technology which will solve the problem of climate adaptation -Nigerian farmers and communities are already implementing climate adaptation practices -Climate adaptation efforts should draw on principles of resilience to be more effective -Effective climate adaptation will require coordination across multiple sectors of the Nigerian economy and society |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2020–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffpb:303596&r=all |
| By: | Adrien Fabre (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Mouez Fodha (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Francesco Ricci (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - FRE2010 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier, UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | The production of energy from renewable sources is much more intensive in minerals than that from fossil resources. The scarcity of certain minerals limits the potential for substituting renewable energy for scarce fossil resources. However, minerals can be recycled,while fossil resources cannot. We develop an intertemporal model to study the dynamics of the optimal energy mix in the presence of mineral intensive renewable energy and fossil energy. We analyze energy production when both mineral and fossil resources are scarce,but minerals are recyclable. We show that the greater the recycling rate of minerals, the more the energy mix should rely on renewable energy, and the sooner should investment in renewable capacity take place. We confirm these results even in the presence of other better known factors that affect the optimal schedule of resource use: expected productivity growth in the renewable sector, imperfect substitution between the two sources of energy, convex extraction costs for mineral resources and pollution from the use of fossil resources. |
| Keywords: | Renewable and Non-Renewable Natural Resources,Energy Transition,Recycling,Mineral Resources |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-02446805&r=all |
| By: | Giovanniello, Monica (Universitat de les Illes Balears); Perroni, Carlo (University of Warwick and CESifo) |
| Abstract: | Uncoordinated responses for the preservation of global commons result in excessive delay – months or years in relation to climate change, days or weeks in a pandemic |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1262&r=all |
| By: | Elisa Lanzi (OECD); Frithjof Laubinger (OECD); Jean Chateau (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Resource efficiency and circular economy policies aim at reducing resource intensity and use throughout the economy, thereby decreasing environmental impacts. Besides the environmental benefits expected from these policies, potential employment benefits are often emphasised, which would follow the anticipated structural changes in the economy from material-intensive to more labour-intensive activities. However, the size of the employment effect is still unclear and difficult to quantify. To date, the quantitative literature on the employment impacts of the circular economy is still scarce. This study is the first of its kind to review the available studies on this increasingly important policy issue. |
| Keywords: | circular economy, employment & redistributive effects, labour markets, macro-economic modelling, natural resources, resource efficiency |
| JEL: | Q52 Q53 O14 J4 C68 |
| Date: | 2020–05–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:162-en&r=all |
| By: | Hertel, Thomas; Cicero Zanetti De Lima |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a critical assessment of the literature estimating the consequences of climate impacts in agriculture and the food system. This literature focuses overwhelmingly on the impact of elevated CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, higher temperatures and changing precipitation on staple crop yields. While critically important for food security, we argue that researchers have gravitated to measuring impacts ‘under the streetlight’ where data and models are plentiful. We argue that prior work has largely neglected the vast majority of potential economic impacts of climate change on agriculture. A broader view must extend the impacts analysis to inputs beyond land, including the consequences of climate change for labor productivity, as well as the rate of total factor productivity growth in the face of more rapidly depreciating knowledge capital. This broader view must also focus more attention on non-staple crops, which, while less important from a caloric point of view, are critically important in redressing current micronutrient deficiencies in many diets around the world. The paper closes with numerical simulations that demonstrate the extent to which limited input and output coverage of climate impacts can lead to considerable underestimation of the consequences for food security and economic welfare – particularly in the poorest regions of the world. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:workpp:6155&r=all |
| By: | Natalia Bailey; Zvi Hochman; Yufeng Mao; Mervyn J. Silvapulle; Param Silvapulle |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a statistical model to estimate and evaluate the predictability of the response of wheat yield to extreme temperature exposures and rainfall during the three phases of wheat grain production (vegetative, reproductive and grain filling) in northwestern (NW) Victoria, Australia. Unlike crop models which rely on functions developed from field experiments, we use observed data on annual wheat yields from 44 farms in the region over a period of 26 years (1993-2018). We find that the one-way fixed effects panel data model tends to outperform competing models in the out-of-sample prediction of future yields. We detect as positive drivers of NW Victorian wheat yield growth, exposure to moderate temperatures in all the three phases of the wheat production and total rainfall in the first two phases of the growing season. Providing adequate soil moisture, January-March rainfall also was found to be a positive driver of yields. Conversely, exposure to freezing temperatures during the vegetative and reproductive phases as well as to extreme high temperatures in all three phases of wheat production constitute negative drivers of NW Victorian wheat yields. The reproductive phase appears to be the most sensitive to climate variability, with adverse extreme heat and frost having sizeable negative impacts on yields. These negative effects are partially offset by increased rainfall in the same phase of wheat production. Moreover, we compare yield predictions by our statistical model to yield potentials calculated by APSIM. The gaps can be used to make recommendations on some adaptation opportunities available to farmers in the NW Victoria region. |
| Keywords: | extreme temperature exposure, crop yields, threshold-panel data model. |
| JEL: | C23 C53 Q54 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2020-18&r=all |
| By: | Peter A. Groothuis; Tanga M. Mohr; John C. Whitehead; Kristan Cockerill; William P. Anderson, Jr.; Chuanhui Gu |
| Abstract: | Following best practice in stated preference guidelines we use scientific information to develop a realistic hypothetical scenario for stormwater management and water quality improvements in a stated preference valuation survey. We then provide different treatment levels of the scientific information to survey respondents. Using a hybrid choice model, we find that scientific information has no direct influence on referendum votes in favor of a stormwater management program. However, different levels of scientific information have an indirect influence by changing concern about stormwater runoff or by changing perceived understanding of the stormwater management plan. Both of these effects have implications for valuing a stormwater management plan. We suggest that researchers should be aware of how their choice on the information provided may influence responses to a stated preference survey. Key Words: stormwater management, stream water quality, science communication, stated preferences, hybrid choice models, generalized structural equation method |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:20-02&r=all |
| By: | Etienne ESPAGNE; Nicolas DE LAUBIER-LONGUET MARX |
| Abstract: | This paper measures the marginal impact of climate variability on Vietnamese households’ income. We combine survey data from the Viet Nam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) database with daily climate data from the Climate Prediction Center to estimate the response function of Vietnamese households’ revenues to past climate variability. We focus on the non-linearity of the response and notably on the impacts of extremely warm days. We find that on average an additional day above 33°C is associated with a decrease of the yearly income by 1.3%. This strong effect is not specific to the agricultural sector. It is highest for the lowest deciles of the revenue distribution. Using projection scenarios under the Representation Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5, we find an estimated impact of global warming of up to 100% of households’ revenues in 2090s in some regions (Northern region and the Red River Delta area) under RCP8.5. These strong negative impacts are also likely to be specifically concentrated on poor households and to increase revenue inequalities. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en9477&r=all |
| By: | Williams, Andy E |
| Abstract: | General Collective Intelligence (GCI) are software platforms that organize groups into a single collective intelligence with general problem solving ability. In doing so a GCI has the potential to give groups vastly more ability to address collective challenges such as the SDGs. A GCI is a significant infrastructure investment. The Collective Intelligence based Program to Accelerate Achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (CIPAA-SDGs) however is designed to implement a GCI in phases so that the cost to any single project is far outweighed by the potential benefits. The phasing of that GCI development in the CIPAA-SDGs program design is used here as a case study for collectively intelligent program design. |
| Date: | 2020–04–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:r2dxq&r=all |
| By: | Hambulo Ngoma; Arild Angelsen |
| Abstract: | Minimum tillage (MT) is a key component in the promotion of conservation agriculture (CA). This paper asks whether MT reduces cropland expansion and thus deforestation. We develop a simple theoretical household model of land expansion, and test hypotheses by estimating a double hurdle model using household survey data from 368 smallholders in rural Zambia. We find that about 19% of the farmers expanded cropland into forests, clearing an average of 0.14 ha over one year. Overall, MT adoption does not significantly reduce deforestation among households in our sample, while labor availability stimulate expansion. Yield augmenting agricultural technologies (such as MT) may not reduce expansion unless combined with other forest conservation measures. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303055&r=all |
| By: | Johanna Choumert-Nkolo (EDI - Economic Development Initiatives Limited); Anaïs Lamour (IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pascale Phélinas (IRD - UMR CESSMA , CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Volcanic hazards pose a potential threat to 8% of the world's population, yet the economic literature on their short- and long-term consequences on household behavior and economic development is still in its infancy. In this article, we present the state of the literature and highlight knowledge gaps and methodological challenges inherent to the economic analysis of volcanic hazards and disasters. We first present the physical aspects of volcanic activity and describe available physical data. We then examine the concepts related to cost assessment of volcanic disasters. Finally, we discuss key micro and macroeconomic research questions economists should investigate and identify relevant methodological and data challenges. By highlighting research gaps in the "economics of volcanoes", we provide future avenues of research that will address policy-relevant debates in the context of greater focus on risk mitigation, adaptation, and resilience policies aimed at mitigating natural hazards and disasters. |
| Keywords: | Natural Disaster,Adaptation,Risk,Hazard,Resilience,Economics |
| Date: | 2020–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02556468&r=all |
| By: | Dennis Guignet; Matthew T. Heberling; Michael Papenfus; Olivia Griot; Ben Holland |
| Abstract: | We conduct a comprehensive meta-analysis of 36 studies that examine the effects of water quality on housing values in the United States. The meta-dataset includes 656 unique estimates, and entails a cluster structure that accounts for property price effects at different distances from a waterbody. Focusing on water clarity, we estimate meta-regressions that account for within-cluster dependence, statistical precision, housing market and waterbody heterogeneity, publication bias, and best methodological practices. While we find evidence of systematic heterogeneity, the median out-of-sample transfer errors are relatively large. We discuss the implications for benefit transfer and identify future work to improve transfer performance. Key Words: |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:20-04&r=all |
| By: | Marie-Noëlle WOILLEZ |
| Abstract: | L’empreinte du changement climatique global est déjà clairement visible au Maroc : la température moyenne du pays a augmenté de +0,42 °C/décennie depuis 1990 et la diminution des précipitations est estimée à plus de 20% entre 1961 et 2005. La moyenne des projections des différents modèles climatiques indique que cette tendance à l’aridification va se poursuivre, avec à horizon 2050 une augmentation supplémentaire de la température de +1,5 °C (+2 °C) pour le scénario RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) et une diminution des précipitations de -15 % environ. Certains modèles projettent un déclin des précipitations bien supérieur, de l’ordre de -40 %. À horizon 2050 les projections de l’évolution des pluies extrêmes ne sont pas toujours statistiquement significatives. En revanche, la fréquence des vagues de chaleur et des sécheresses devrait fortement augmenter. Les rendements de l’agriculture non-irriguée seront affectés négativement, avec un déclin qui pourrait dépasser 40 % dans certains régions pour le blé et l’orge. Globalement, les besoins en eau des plantes risquent de fortement augmenter, nécessitant un recourt accru à l’irrigation, tandis que dans le même temps le débit des rivières pourrait diminuer de plus de 30 %. L’adéquation entre les ressources en eau disponible et les besoins du secteur agricole semble donc relativement incertaine. Par ailleurs, le secteur de l’énergie pourrait être affecté par une diminution de la capacité de production des centrales thermiques et hydrauliques. Enfin, 1,82 millions de Marocains habitent actuellement dans des zones qui seraient submergées de façon permanente en cas de montée du niveau marin de plus de 40 cm, une valeur très probable pour la fin du siècle et qui n’est pas à exclure dès le milieu du siècle si le Groenland et l’Antarctique fondaient plus rapidement que prévu. |
| Keywords: | Maroc |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–07–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr9807&r=all |
| By: | Steve Cicala; Stephen P. Holland; Erin T. Mansur; Nicholas Z. Muller; Andrew J. Yates |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in stay-at-home policies and other social distancing behaviors in the United States in spring of 2020. This paper examines the impact that these actions had on emissions and expected health effects through reduced personal vehicle travel and electricity consumption. Using daily cell phone mobility data for each U.S. county, we find that vehicle travel dropped about 40% by mid-April across the nation. States that imposed stay-at-home policies before March 28 decreased travel slightly more than other states, but travel in all states decreased significantly. Using data on hourly electricity consumption by electricity region (e.g., balancing authority), we find that electricity consumption fell about six percent on average by mid-April with substantial heterogeneity. Given these decreases in travel and electricity use, we estimate the county-level expected improvements in air quality, and therefore expected declines in mortality. Overall, we estimate that, for a month of social distancing, the expected premature deaths due to air pollution from personal vehicle travel and electricity consumption declined by approximately 360 deaths, or about 25% of the baseline 1500 deaths. In addition, we estimate that CO2 emissions from these sources fell by 46 million metric tons (a reduction of approximately 19%) over the same time frame. |
| JEL: | Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27135&r=all |
| By: | Shoji, Masahiro |
| Abstract: | Early-life circumstances have a long-term impact on adult outcomes such as health, wealth, and happiness. Using exogenous variation in weather conditions across 46 developing countries over time, this study examines the impact of experiencing weather shocks in childhood on adult non-cognitive skills, namely, locus of control. The results show that those who experienced rainfall shortage before age five are more likely to believe that they cannot control their life outcomes. However, the impact diminishes by their early forties. This study also demonstrates the negative impact of weather shocks on voting behavior. Finally, underlying mechanisms for this relationship are explored. |
| Keywords: | locus of control; non-cognitive skills; early life circumstances; climate change |
| JEL: | I25 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2020–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99987&r=all |
| By: | Steven Haggblade; Naman Keita; Abdramane Traoré; Pierre Traoré; Amadou Diarra; Veronique Thériault |
| Abstract: | This study aims to quantify the share of unregistered pesticides on sale in Mali. To do so, the research team conducted a survey of agro-dealers operating in 10 different markets across Mali in June 2019, at the beginning of the 2019/20 cropping season. Fraudulent pesticides include both unregistered generic products as well as counterfeits. While identification of unregistered products is relatively straightforward, counterfeits are very difficult to identify with certainty, even by the authorized distributors, particularly without laboratory testing. Given the prohibitive cost of laboratory testing, and the limited resources available for this study, our team has focused solely on quantifying unregistered pesticides, which we can measure with some confidence. By omitting the additional unknown level of counterfeits, these results provide a lower bound on fraudulent pesticide volumes in Mali The survey results suggest that illegal, unregistered pesticides account for about 26% of all pesticide volumes sold in Mali. Of these roughly 5% come from Ghana, 2% from Côte d’Ivoire and the remaining 19% are not registered anywhere. Mali’s designated regulator, the Comité Sahélien des Pesticides (CSP), authorizes pesticides for sale based on their efficacy and safety. The high level of unauthorized pesticides currently on sale in Mali results in frequent complaints from farmers as well as potential danger to human health and the environment. Improved post-registration monitoring and enforcement will be critical to ensuring quality inputs for farmers as well as safety for farmers and consumers. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303195&r=all |
| By: | Aksoy, Cevat Giray (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); Tumen, Semih (TED University) |
| Abstract: | Can high-quality local governance alleviate the environmental impact of large-scale refugee migration? The recent surge in refugee flows has brought additional challenges to local governments in Europe, the Middle East and certain regions of Africa and Asia. In this paper, we focus on the case of Syrian refugees in Turkey and show that the quality of local governance plays a critical role in mitigating the environmental deterioration. We employ text analysis methods to construct a unique data set on local governance quality from the independent audit reports on municipalities. Using a quasi-experimental econometric strategy, we show that the Syrian refugee influx has worsened environmental outcomes along several dimensions in Turkey. Specifically, we find that the deterioration in environmental outcomes is almost entirely driven by provinces with poor-quality governance. Those provinces fail to invest sufficiently in waste management practices and environmental services in response to increased refugee settlements. We argue that good local governance practices can smooth out the refugee integration process and complement the efforts of central governments. |
| Keywords: | Syrian refugees, environment, waste management, local governance, text analysis |
| JEL: | F22 H76 Q53 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13145&r=all |
| By: | Leopoldo Fergusson; Santiago Saavedra; Juan F. Vargas |
| Abstract: | Research on deforestation has grown exponentially due to the availability of satellite-based measures of forest cover. One of the most popular is Global Forest Change (GFC). Using GFC, we estimate that the Colombian civil conflict increases ‘forest cover’. Using an alternative source that validates the same remote sensing images in the ground, we find the opposite effect. This occurs because, in spite of its name, GFC measures tree cover, including vegetation other than native forest. Most users of GFC seem unaware of this. In our case, most of the conflicting results are explained by GFC’s misclassification of oil palm crops as ‘forest’. Our findings call for caution when using automated classification of imagery for specific research questions. |
| Keywords: | Forest Cover, Conflict, Measurement |
| JEL: | D74 Q23 Q34 |
| Date: | 2020–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000518:018152&r=all |
| By: | Jeanne PERRIER |
| Abstract: | Cet article explore les processus de réformes des lois palestiniennes de l’eau, en particulier la dernière loi de l’eau promulguée en 2014. Ces réformes législatives s’inscrivent dans un contexte international de modernisation des lois de l’eau, et dans un contexte national palestinien d’une réforme de la gestion de l’eau entamée en 2008. Celles-ci reprennent les idées clés formulées dans les Principes de Dublin en 1992. L’État et le concept d’efficience se retrouvent au cœur des dispositions des lois modernes de l’eau, et s’accommodent parfaitement du contexte conflictuel entre Israël et l’Autorité palestinienne.L’objectif de cet article est de déconstruire le processus de réformes de la gestion de l’eau palestinienne pour comprendre les véritables enjeux de pouvoir. Pour y parvenir, nous analyserons le contexte politique et discursif de production de la loi de l’eau palestinienne de 2014. Celle-ci a pour objectif de mettre en place une gestion plus démocratique des ressources en eau, notamment à travers un processus de décentralisation de l’Autorité palestinienne de l’eau vers de nouveaux acteurs, tels que les fournisseurs régionaux ou encore les associations d’usagers de l’eau. Cependant sa mise en œuvre s’avère un échec. Cet article montre comment elle a ignoré les constellations hydropolitiques locales et les enjeux de pouvoir entre les différents acteurs de cette gestion de l’eau.Le pouvoir de l’Autorité palestinienne de l’eau reste limité. Il se heurte à la réalité du pluralisme juridique, en pratique dans la gestion de l’eau palestinienne. L’occupation israélienne accentue ces difficultés. Cependant, les outils législatifs, tels que la loi de l’eau de 2014 et les récentes réglementations, permettent d’avancer petit à petit les pions d’une centralisation de la gestion des ressources en eau. Ainsi, les discours de décentralisation promus par les bailleurs de fonds et repris par l’Autorité palestinienne de l’eau pour justifier les réformes sur l’eau cachent une dynamique d’intégration verticale de la gestion des ressources en eau. Le règlement sur les associations d’usagers de l’eau en est exemple frappant. L’analyse des documents législatifs couplés aux stratégies palestiniennes et aux dynamiques internes nous permet de révéler ces dynamiques de centralisation qui menacent les pratiques locales de la gestion de l’eau. |
| Keywords: | Palestine |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr10673&r=all |
| By: | Stéphanie LEYRONAS; Nadège LEGROUX |
| Abstract: | Narratives feed into development policies. They are the outcome of complex interactions between political and economic contexts as well as scientific findings and practices. Narratives are a way to build converging discourses, to rally actors and give meaning. As early as the 2000s, a discourse emerged around Global Public Goods in parallel to the one on Sustainable development. Upon facing increasingly alarming planetary challenges, we believe that commons, both as institutional processes and as a philosophy, are vectors for change. This article looks at the intellectual and operational potential provided by commons on development policies. What do commons refer to? To what extent do they invite development actors to take a step aside and renew their policies, strategies and practices? |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en9262&r=all |
| By: | Zhu Liu; Zhu Deng; Philippe Ciais; Ruixue Lei; Sha Feng; Steven J. Davis; Yuan Wang; Xu Yue; Yadong Lei; Hao Zhou; Zhaonan Cai; Bo Zheng; Xinyu Dou; Duo Cui; Pan He; Biqing Zhu; Piyu Ke; Taochun Sun; Yuhui Wu; Runtao Guo; Tingxuan Han; Jinjun Xue; Yilong Wang; Frederic Chevallier; Qiang Zhang; Dabo Guan; Peng Gong; Daniel M. Kammen; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber |
| Abstract: | Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 are of paramount importance for global sustainability. Using a coordinated set of high-resolution sectoral assessment tools, we report a decrease of 4.2% in global CO$_2$ emission in first quarter of 2020. Our emission estimates reflect near real time inventories of emissions from power generation, transportation, industry, international aviation and maritime sectors in 34 countries that account for >70% of world energy-related CO2 emissions in recent years. Regional variations in CO$_2$ emissions are significant, with a decrease in China (-9.3%), US (-3.0%), Europe (EU-27 & UK) (-3.3%) and India (-2.4%), respectively. The decline of short-lived gaseous pollutants, such as NO$_2$ concentration observed by Satellites (-25.73% for China, -4.76% for US) and ground observations (-23% for China) is consistent with the estimates based on energy activity (-23.94% for China, -3.52% for US), but the decline is not seen in satellite assessments of aerosol optical depth (AOD) or dry column CO$_2$ (XCO$_2$). With fast recovery and partial re-opening of national economies, our findings suggest that total annual emissions may drop far less than previously estimated (e.g., by 25% for China and more than 5% for the whole world). However, the longer-term effects on CO$_2$ emissions are unknown and should be carefully monitored using multiple measures. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2004.13614&r=all |
| By: | Massimo Filippini (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland and Universita della Svizzera italiana, Switzerland); Nilkanth Kumar (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Suchita Srinivasan (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | Addressing hazardous levels of air pollution in densely-populated cities in emerging countries requires concerted efforts to reduce fossil fuel use, especially in the transport sector. Given that motorcycles comprise almost 80% of vehicle sales in Nepal, a viable alternative to reduce air pollution is driving more fuel-efficient electric alternatives. However, their adoption has been limited due to a gamut of market failures and behavioral anomalies. In this study, we collect rich data on preferences, socio-economic factors and biases of more than 2,000 potential motorcycle buyers in the Kathmandu valley in Nepal. Using a stated choice experiment with randomized information treatments, we evaluate the role of specific behavioral anomalies in determining the stated-preference of consumers on whether they would be willing to buy an electric motorcycle. We find evidence to suggest that cognitive/skills limitations, framing of information, and the affect heuristic play a role in determining the stated-preference of respondents. In particular, displaying qualitative information on the air pollution impact of their choices, and “priming” them through impactful photographs and texts could have a positive effect. Furthermore, the results also hint at the importance of gender, health status and cognitive skills in determining the effectiveness of these nudges in promoting the adoption of electric alternatives. Implications of this study relate to policy choice in settings similar to Kathmandu, where fuel-inefficient vehicles are preferred and widely used, and the negative externalities due to air pollution are very stark. |
| Keywords: | Market failures, Behavioral anomalies, Electric vehicles, Stated-choice experiment, Nepal |
| JEL: | D1 D8 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:20-333&r=all |
| By: | Leopoldo Fergusson, Santiago Saavedra y Juan F. Vargas; Santiago Saavedra; Juan Vargas |
| Abstract: | Research on deforestation has grown exponentially due to the availability of satellitebased measures of forest cover. One of the most popular is Global Forest Change (GFC). Using GFC, we estimate that the Colombian civil conflict increases ‘forest cover’. Using an alternative source that validates the same remote sensing images in the ground, we find the opposite effect. This occurs because, in spite of its name, GFC measures tree cover, including vegetation other than native forest. Most users of GFC seem unaware of this. In our case, most of the conflicting results are explained by GFC’s misclassification of oil palm crops as ‘forest’. Our findings call for caution when using automated classification of imagery for specific research questions. |
| Keywords: | Forest Cover, Conflict, Measurement |
| JEL: | D74 Q23 Q34 |
| Date: | 2020–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:018151&r=all |
| By: | Fergusson, L; Saavedra, S; Vargas, J. F |
| Abstract: | Research on deforestation has grown exponentially due to the availability of satellitebased measures of forest cover. One of the most popular is Global Forest Change (GFC). Using GFC, we estimate that the Colombian civil conflict increases ‘forest cover’. Using an alternative source that validates the same remote sensing images in the ground, we find the opposite effect. This occurs because, in spite of its name, GFC measures tree cover, including vegetation other than native forest. Most users of GFC seem unaware of this. In our case, most of the conflicting results are explained by GFC’s misclassification of oil palm crops as ‘forest’. Our findings call for caution when using automated classification of imagery for specific research questions. |
| Keywords: | Forest Cover, Conflict, Measurement. |
| JEL: | D74 Q23 Q34 |
| Date: | 2020–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:018153&r=all |
| By: | Siddharth Sareen (Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU), University of Sussex); Steven Wolf (Department of Natural Resources, Cornell University, USA) |
| Abstract: | What constitutes a sustainability transition? This question is important for analyzing energy transitions and in the broader realm of socio-material systems. We identify sustainability transitions as premised on changes in flows of legitimacy and on shifts in the accountability mechanisms that regulate these flows. Legitimacy flows to organisations through accountability regimes of inputs (standards and assessments), outputs (sanctions) and outcomes (structural and material change). This legitimacy allows organisations to access resources necessary to compete and to thrive. Changing accountability regimes lead to sectoral transitions, and the values underlying these changes determine implications for sustainability. We define accountability as the basis of legitimacy, and identify accountability relations as legitimacy tests. Conformance with norms yields legitimacy. Failing tests of accountability yields sanctions that undermine the relevant actions and actors. Contestation and adaptation of accountability mechanisms lend themselves to empirical observation. Their analysis evidences whether accountability is strongly substantiated, a hollow performance, or an expression of authoritarianism or radical liberalism. It enables characterisation of sectoral transitions in relation to sustainability, and identification of mechanisms to institutionalize accountability relations that integrate ecological limits and justice considerations into socioeconomic dynamics, to advance sustainability transitions. To demonstrate its explanatory power, we analyse solar energy uptake in Portugal, a rapidly growing niche, as a purported case of sustainability transitions. This empirical analysis juxtaposes the promise of movement to a more equitable, low-carbon energy future with institutional and material inertia. We draw on expert interviews, field observation and secondary research to apply accountability analysis to this energy transition case. Our approach targets both formal and informal means of legitimation. Assessment and sanctions serve as markers of the changing accountability regime that characterises sectoral transition. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sru:ssewps:2020-07&r=all |
| By: | Bertrand SAVOYE |
| Abstract: | Les réflexions sur la stratégie de développement économique du Maroc ont fait l’objet de nombreuses études de qualité et ont couvert, sous la forme de plans sectoriels, la plupart des secteurs d’activité de l’économie marocaine. Au coeur de ces travaux, aux diagnostics le plus souvent concordants, se retrouve la question lancinante de l’émergence économique et cette interrogation : pourquoi le Maroc ne réussit-il pas à s’engager durablement dans une trajectoire d’émergence, alors que les conditions paraissent en grande partie réunies ? Ainsi, en dépit d'une relative stabilité politique et sociale, d'une amélioration notable du climat des affaires, d'un effort exceptionnel d’investissement public et parapublic, et d'une insertion réussie dans des chaînes de valeur mondiales à fort contenu technologique, telles que les industries automobile et aéronautique, cette question reste posée dans les derniers rapports produits sur la situation du Maroc, comme elle l’était déjà dans des termes identiques en 2005 dans le rapport Prospective Maroc 2030.À cette interrogation fait écho une préoccupation, également de longue date mais croissante ces derniers temps : comment poursuivre les politiques de réduction de la pauvreté mises en oeuvre et maintenir la cohésion sociale, si la croissance économique et l’emploi escomptés par une trajectoire d’émergence ne sont pas au rendez-vous ?De fait, le Maroc affiche depuis plusieurs décennies ces deux ambitions en accordant tantôt la priorité à l’émergence économique, dans le sillage remarquable des pays du Sud-Est asiatique, et tantôt aux questions sociales et à la lutte contre la pauvreté, élargie ces dernières années aux enjeux du développement durable et inclusif. |
| Keywords: | Maroc |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2019–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr10612&r=all |
| By: | Sinha, Avik; Driha, Oana; Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper shows the bilateral association between tourism development and inequality in per capita availability of water. The study is conducted on the countries with high tourism receipt, and thereafter, this study shows whether the directions of tourism development in these countries are going to be sustainable, or not. In order to achieve this, we have used tourism investment and tourism receipt as two indicators of tourism development, and have assessed their differential impacts on the disparity in water availability by applying DOLS and causality analysis approach. The results divulge long run impact of tourism on inequality in per capita availability of water, along with the presence of bidirectional causal association among the tourism development and inequality parameters. We show the impact of tourism on the regional disparity in distribution of water that can appear due to the differential approach taken towards tourism development. |
| Keywords: | Inequality in Water Availability, Tourism Development, Theil Index |
| JEL: | Q5 Q57 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100093&r=all |
| By: | Hambulo Ngoma; Brian P. Mulenga; Jason Snyder; Alefa Banda; Antony Chapoto |
| Abstract: | While it is generally accepted that climate change will exacerbate poverty for small and medium sized farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the coming years, at least due to rising variability and rainfall shocks (Mulenga, Wineman, and Sitko 2017; Hallegatte et al. 2016), a number of questions remain unanswered. Which types of the poor are more exposed to climate risk and how do the impacts of climate and weather shocks vary across stochastically and structurally poor households? Addressing these questions is crucial for improved targeting of interventions intended to build the resilience of smallholder farmers. Smallholder farmers’ reliance almost entirely on rain-fed agriculture and their limited capacity to cope with weather shocks exposes them to climate risks. Weather shocks negatively impact smallholders through their effects on agricultural productivity, which is the mainstay of rural smallholder households. If left unchecked, weather shocks can lead to increased poverty incidence and intensity. In this paper, we utilize data from a nationally representative two-wave panel of recent agricultural household surveys to conduct a high resolution analysis of the spatial distribution of poverty, and how the different types of poverty are impacted by exposure to climate change variability. The data allows us to (a) control for observed and unobserved sources of household heterogeneity, and (b) distinguish between the structurally poor, i.e., those households that have very little assets or savings, and the stochastically poor, i.e., those households that have low savings but enough assets that they could liquidate if necessary to smooth consumption during a climate shock Out of the 14,508 rural households interviewed in Zambia in 2012 and 2015, about 51% were structurally poor (low income and assets) and 5% were stochastically poor (low income and high assets). About 23% of households that were structurally poor in 2012 remained structurally poor in 2015, hence, chronically poor. A third of the structurally not poor in 2012 fell into poverty in 2015, while about 19% of poor households in 2012 managed to escape poverty in 2015. Structurally poor households in Zambia are more exposed to drought risk. Lower than normal rainfall, as measured by a negative precipitation index, significantly increases the probability of being structurally poor by 2.3 percentage points. Three implications follow from our findings. First, there is a need for well-structured and targeted social promotion programs to lift the viable but chronically and structurally poor and stochastically poor households from poverty. This can be achieved within the agricultural sector by using the electronic voucher delivery systems to better target large-scale, anti-poverty programs such as the farmer input support program. Along with improved targeting, the use of the electronic based voucher systems crowds-in private sector investments, which make available diverse inputs for farmers and also help develop the rural nonfarm sector where farmers can earn extra incomes. Smart-subsidies should be flanked by output market linkages and/or market development in order to enhance market participation and help improve incomes from agricultural production. Second, for those not commercially viable, there is a need for a better targeted and sustained social welfare program specifically meant for this group. Thus there is need for sustained social protection (e.g., social cash transfers) in order to prevent the non-poor from falling into poverty. And lastly, the intricate linkages among climate variability, climate risk, and poverty call for more support to enable farmers not only adapt to, but also mitigate climate change and variability. Such support may be v directed towards climate-smart agriculture adoption, autonomous and planned adaptation, improved extension, and climate information services. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, International Development |
| Date: | 2019–12–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miffrp:303061&r=all |
| By: | Thomas MÉLONIO; Marine BERTUZZI |
| Abstract: | The study of China’s international financial flows shows that it has become a major player in international financing. With the Belt and Road Initiative, China has promoted a narrative of development based primarily on economic growth, interconnectedness through transport infrastructure, and commercial trade. At the Second Belt and Road Forum in April 2019, the Chinese authorities declared their wish to focus on issues related to financial and environmental sustainability, planning a move towards a “higher quality” Belt and Road Initiative. This discourse provides an opportunity for increased dialogue and greater cooperation with other actors involved in development finance, although this presupposes a convergence in the financial, social, and environmental practices of Chinese and non-Chinese financial actors. This article makes a number of recommendations for creating these new convergences, and offers some approaches to a common framework for sustainable finance and development. |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2019–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en10419&r=all |