nep-env New Economics Papers
on Environmental Economics
Issue of 2019‒02‒25
forty-nine papers chosen by
Francisco S. Ramos
Universidade Federal de Pernambuco

  1. Capital Accumulation, Green Paradox, and Stranded Assets: An Endogenous Growth Perspective By Wei Jin; ZhongXiang Zhang
  2. Defining green bonds the danger of neglecting the issuer side: Looking at problems and solutions By Demary, Markus; Neligan, Adriana
  3. Can environmental taxes and payments for ecosystem services regulate pollution when the resilience of water bodies is surpassed? By Tobón Orozco, David; Molina, Carlos; Vargas, Harvey
  4. From "destructive creation" to "creative destruction": Rethinking Science, Technology and innovation in a global context By Soete, Luc
  5. Tropical Storms and Mortality under Climate Change By Pugatch, Todd
  6. Testing the Globalization-Driven Carbon Emissions Hypothesis: International Evidence By Shahbaz, Muhammad; Mahalik, Mantu Kumar; Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  7. Divestment may burst the carbon bubble if investors' beliefs tip to anticipating strong future climate policy By Birte Ewers; Jonathan F. Donges; Jobst Heitzig; Sonja Peterson
  8. Gendered Impacts of Household and Ambient Air Pollution on Child Health: Evidence from Household and Satellite-based Data in Bangladesh By Masamitsu Kurata; Kazushi Takahashi; Akira Hibiki
  9. Climate Change and the Irish Financial System By Lane, Philip R.
  10. Report of the independant Commission for Sustainable Equality By Marcel Mersch; Eloi Laurent
  11. An explorative evaluation of the climate debt By Adeline Gueret; Paul Malliet; Aurélien Saussay; Xavier Timbeau
  12. Market Expectations About Climate Change By Wolfram Schlenker; Charles A Taylor
  13. Desarrollo sostenible, modelo extractivista e inversión extranjera en Colombia By Gustavo Rodríguez Albor; James Frasser Camargo; Deisy Andapiña Acosta
  14. Weather shocks and agricultural commercialization in colonial tropical Africa: did cash crops alleviate social distress? By Papaioannou, Kostadis J.; de Haas, Michiel
  15. The Contribution of Management Control Systems to Environmental Capabilities By Elisabeth Albertini
  16. Construire une politique énergétique et climatique européenne cohérente By Gissela Landa; Paul Malliet; Aurélien Saussay; Frédéric Reynés
  17. Free Trade Agreements with Environmental Standards By Hideo Konishi; Minoru Nakada; Akihisa Shibata
  18. Respuesta del consumidor a la información sobre la huella de carbono de los alimentos: un análisis usando un experimento de elección discreta By Sara Pérez Gutiérrez; Andrés Vargas Pérez
  19. Contrasted performances of renewable energy development in French regions By Rafik Abdessalam; Patricia Renou-Maissant; Ferdaous Roussafi
  20. Governance, CO2 emissions and Inclusive Human Development in Sub-Saharan Africa By Simplice A. Asongu; Nicholas M. Odhiambo
  21. Governance,CO2 emissions and inclusive human development in Sub-Saharan Africa By Asongu, Simplice A; Odhiambo, Nicholas M
  22. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility" By Gregory Casey; Soheil Shayegh; Juan Moreno-Cruz; Martin Bunzl; Oded Galor; Ken Caldeira
  23. Оценка на устойчивостта на българското селско стопанство By Bachev, Hrabrin; Koteva, Nina; Mitova, Dilyana; Ivanov, Bojidar; Chopeva, Minka; Toteva, Dessislava; Sarov, Angel; Sokolova, Emilia; Todorova, Kristina; Mitov, Anton; Vanev, Dimitar
  24. Economic development thresholds for a green economy in Sub-Saharan Africa By Asongu, Simplice A; Odhiambo, Nicholas M
  25. Economic Development Thresholds for a Green Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa By Simplice A. Asongu; Nicholas M. Odhiambo
  26. Non-Renewable Resources and the Possibility of Sustainable Economic Development in a Positive or Negative Population Growth Economy By Sasaki, Hiroaki
  27. The Death Spiral of Coal in the USA: Will New U.S. Energy Policy Change the Tide? By Roman Mendelevitch; Christian Hauenstein; Franziska Holz
  28. Impact of Climate Variability on Staple Food Crops Production in Northern Togo By ALI, Essossinam
  29. Self-Enforcing International Environmental Agreements: Adaptation and Complementarity By Santiago J. Rubio
  30. Natural Disasters and Regional Development - The Case of Earthquakes By Marius Fabian; Christian Leßmann; Tim Sofke
  31. Bringing Satellite-Based Air Quality Estimates Down to Earth By Meredith Fowlie; Edward A. Rubin; Reed Walker
  32. Greening monetary policy By Dirk Schoenmaker
  33. Discounting in the Presence of Scarce Ecosystem Services By Xueqin Zhu; Sjak Smulders; Aart de Zeeuw
  34. Eyes on the Price: Which Power Generation Technologies Set the Market Price? Price Setting in European Electricity Markets: An Application to the Proposed Dutch Carbon Price Floor By Eike Blume-Werry; Thomas Faber; Lion Hirth; Claus Huber; Martin Everts
  35. Mainstreaming disaster risk management strategies in development instruments (II): policy briefs for Barbados, Guyana, Saint Lucia, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago By Weekes, Colleen; Bello, Omar D.
  36. Are Renewables Profitable in 2030? A Comparison between Wind and Solar across Europe By Valentin Bertsch; Valeria Di Cosmo
  37. The state of applied environmental macoreconomics By Gissela Landa; Paul Malliet; Frédéric Reynés; Aurélien Saussay
  38. Something in the Pipe: Flint Water Crisis and Health at Birth By Wang, Rui; Chen, Xi; Li, Xun
  39. Long-term endogenous economic growth and energy transitions. By Victor Court; Pierre-André Jouvet; Frédéric Lantz
  40. Policy Brief: implementation strategies for youth mainstreaming in sustainable development processes By Camarinhas, Catarina
  41. Neu-Emissions-Prämien: Handlungsalternativen für CFOs bei der Emission von Corporate Bonds By Daube, Carl Heinz; Krivenkov, Vladislav
  42. Macroeconomic time-series evidence that energy efficiency improvements do not save energy By Stephan B. Bruns; Alessio Moneta; David I. Stern
  43. Luring others into climate action: coalition formation games with threshold and spillover effects By Bosetti, Valentina; Heugues, Melanie; Tavoni, Alessandro
  44. Une évalutaion exploratoire de la dette climatique By Adeline Gueret; Paul Malliet; Aurélien Saussay; Xavier Timbeau
  45. Non-monetary indicators to monitor SDG targets 1.2 and 1.4: standards, availability, comparability and quality By Santos, Maria Emma
  46. Developing a socio-economic framework for the assessment of rural biorefinery projects By M Rakotovao; J. Gobert; S Brullot
  47. Natural Resources, Economic Growth and Geography By Rafael González-Val; Fernando Pueyo
  48. Barreiras no comércio internacional, normas técnicas e normas de sustentabilidade: as novas e velhas regras de certificação By Corrêa, Rogerio de O.
  49. Glyphosate Use in Agriculture and Birth Outcomes of Surrounding Populations By Mateus Dias; Rudi Rocha; Rodrigo R. Soares

  1. By: Wei Jin (Tianjin University, China Academy of Energy, Environmental and Industrial Economics and UNSW Business School); ZhongXiang Zhang (Tianjin University, China Academy of Energy and Environmental and Industrial Economics)
    Abstract: The existing studies on Green Paradox and stranded assets focus on dirty exhaustible assets (fossil fuel reserves) and show that environmental regulations, by changing the costs of dirty inputs relative to clean ones, lead to replacements of the former by the latter and stranding of dirty assets due to perfect substitution. It, in turn, induces acceleration of dirty resource extractions and pollution emissions for fear of dirty assets becoming stranded - the Green Paradox effect. This paper uses an endogenous growth framework to revisit the problem of Green Paradox and stranded assets by taking a new perspective that focuses on capital accumulation with investment irreversibility. We show that if 1) direct irreversibility of investment does not rule out the indirect channel of converting dirty capital goods into clean ones through final goods allocations, and 2) interactions between dirty and clean capital as imperfect substitutes can generate reciprocal effects, then environmental regulation, through directing investment towards clean capital, does not necessarily leads to asset stranding of dirty capital. Accumulation of clean capital with a pollution-saving effect offsets the polluting impact of dirty one and leads to reversed Green Paradox. We further propose an endogenous growth mechanism through which the accumulation of both dirty and clean capital, as well as environmental improvement, can be sustained in the long run without converging to the steady state.
    Keywords: Endogenous Growth, Green Paradox, Stranded Assets, Capital Accumulation, Imperfect Substitution, Investment Irreversibility
    JEL: Q54 Q43 Q32 O13 O44 C61
    Date: 2018–12
  2. By: Demary, Markus; Neligan, Adriana
    Abstract: The European Union is currently making significant strides to lead on green finance and align its financial system with its climate, sustainability and clean energy ambitions. To this end, the European Commission presented three legislative proposals on sustainable finance in May 2018. One of the EU's main efforts here is to establish a market for green bonds by introducing a common taxonomy. A technical expert group on sustainable finance is currently developing this taxonomy for sustainable finance. However, most experts are from the investor side, while the issuer side is underrepresented in the group. By defining which economic activities are green, the expert group also determines, which economic activities are non-green. Through the taxonomy, the green bond framework will thereby alter the financing conditions for green investments as well as for traditional investments. In our view, the framework on sustainable finance is unbalanced; it emphasizes mostly the investors' view and less the issuers' view. Two problems might arise from this: First, it does not adequately address the contribution of intermediate goods producers to green final products, and second, the contribution of non-green investments to CO2-reduction with the consequence that their financing costs might rise through a green bond framework. Our first recommendation is, that the expert group should shift its focus away from single green products towards the green value chain. This approach would allow intermediate good producers of non-green products to issue green bonds if they contribute to green final products. If the issuer of an intermediate product could prove that, for example, 20 percent of its sales contribute to a green final product, the issuer should be allowed to structure the issuance by distributing 20 percent of the issuance volume as green bonds and the remaining 80 percent as conventional bonds. Considering the green value chain is important, since the financing costs of intermediate products will contribute to the production costs of green final products. Our second recommendation is that businesses should at least in part be allowed to issue green bonds if they invest in technologies that reduce their CO2-emissions significantly. Their production does not fall under the definition of green products, but these firms could also contribute to greening the economy by investing in emission-reducing and energy-saving technologies. Embracing these issuers into the sustainable finance framework would set them incentives to invest into lowering their CO2-emissions.
    JEL: O16 Q01 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2019
  3. By: Tobón Orozco, David; Molina, Carlos; Vargas, Harvey
    Abstract: Resumen: La naturaleza incierta de la propiedad de resiliencia de los cuerpos de agua y los efectos acumulativos de la polución hacen que los instrumentos económicos tradicionales de regulación ambiental no sean suficientes para asegurar la provisión sostenible de agua potable. Los Pagos por servicios ecosistémicos (PSA) no valoran todos los servicios que los ecosistemas proveen y hay incentivos escasos a demandarlos dada su naturaleza de bienes públicos. Se requieren impuestos ambientales más altos que consideren que los cuerpos de agua tienen un nivel muy bajo de capacidad de resiliencia. Abstract : The uncertain nature of the resilience of water bodies and the cumulative effects of pollution make traditional economic instruments for environmental regulation not enough to ensure the provision of drinking water. Payments for ecosystem services (PES) do not value all the services that ecosystems provide and there are scarce incentives to demand them given its nature of public good. High environmental taxes that consider water bodies to have a very low level of resilience will be required.
    Keywords: Polución, Agua potable, Impuestos pigouvianos, Pagos por serviciosambientales, Resiliencia
    JEL: D58 D61 D62 H23
    Date: 2018–11–01
  4. By: Soete, Luc (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: There is general agreement amongst economists today that Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) have dramatically contributed to individual countries' economic growth and welfare. Another, 21st Century way of looking at the old Solow residual discussion is to observe that STI has been the core factor behind the intrinsic characteristic of capitalism to accumulate indefinitely. Doing so STI has also created the seeds of the current pattern of unsustainable global development. Once the major driving forces of countries' international, technological competitiveness are taken into account, "smart", innovation-led growth and "sustainable", green growth appear in contradiction with each other. The paper makes the case for "smart" no longer be leading in STI policy but rather "sustainability". Four priority "directions" are suggested: radical improvements in eco-productivity reducing the energy and emissions intensity of production, distribution and consumption; biomimicry as sustainable product innovation guiding principle; the use of AI and big data as "sustainable purpose technologies" assisting and complementing growth in eco-productivity and green product development and design; and finally regulatory and taxing policies addressing over-consumption, including advertising. In so far as sustainability and inclusiveness are also in contradiction with each other, there is also need for specific proactive, integrated "eco-social" STI policies. Global sustainable development will only be successful if it supported by all classes in society. While for high income classes priority can be given to increased taxation, for low income classes there is a need for a more comprehensive green new deal that should include house retrofitting and social energy tariffs making the energy transition cheap. Finally the research community itself should put full priority to exploit fully the digital substitution advantages of research networking, rather than air travel.
    Keywords: Science, Technology and Innovation, Smart Growth, Sustainable Development, Inclusiveness.
    JEL: M48 O30 O33 O38 P48
    Date: 2019–01–10
  5. By: Pugatch, Todd (Oregon State University)
    Abstract: Extreme weather induced by climate change can have major consequences for human health. In this study, I quantify the effect of tropical storm frequency and severity on mortality using objective meteorological data and the universe of vital statistics records from a large developing country, Mexico. Using a measure of storm exposure that accounts for both windspeed dispersion and population density along the storm track, I project changes in past storm-related mortality under various scenarios of continued climate change, while holding population and income at current levels. I find that storm-related deaths would have risen under most climate change scenarios considered, with increases of as much as 52% or declines of as much as 10%, depending on the interplay between increasing storm severity and decreased frequency.
    Keywords: climate change, human health, human mortality, natural disasters, hurricanes, tropical cyclones, tropical storms, developing countries, Latin America, Mexico
    JEL: I15 J10 O13
    Date: 2019–01
  6. By: Shahbaz, Muhammad; Mahalik, Mantu Kumar; Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
    Abstract: We empirically investigate the dynamic relationship between globalization and CO2 emissions for 87 (high, middle and low-income) countries. We utilize the cross-correlation approach to examine the well-known EKC hypothesis between globalization and environmental degradation. The results validate the inverted U-shaped EKC hypothesis for 16 (approximately 18%) from the high- and middle-income countries only, thereby highlighting that a rise in globalization will decrease carbon emissions for these countries in the future. On contrary, the results also confirm the U-shaped relationship between globalization and environmental degradation for 8% of the countries. The remaining countries do not have a U- or an inverted U-shaped relationship between globalization and CO2 emissions. Policy implications are also discussed.
    Keywords: Globalization; Carbon Emissions; Cross-correlation; EKC
    JEL: Q5
    Date: 2019–02–06
  7. By: Birte Ewers; Jonathan F. Donges; Jobst Heitzig; Sonja Peterson
    Abstract: To achieve the ambitious aims of the Paris climate agreement, the majority of fossil-fuel reserves needs to remain underground. As current national government commitments to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions are insufficient by far, actors such as institutional and private investors and the social movement on divestment from fossil fuels could play an important role in putting pressure on national governments on the road to decarbonization. Using a stochastic agent-based model of co-evolving financial market and investors' beliefs about future climate policy on an adaptive social network, here we find that the dynamics of divestment from fossil fuels shows potential for social tipping away from a fossil-fuel based economy. Our results further suggest that socially responsible investors have leverage: a small share of 10--20\,\% of such moral investors is sufficient to initiate the burst of the carbon bubble, consistent with the Pareto Principle. These findings demonstrate that divestment has potential for contributing to decarbonization alongside other social movements and policy instruments, particularly given the credible imminence of strong international climate policy. Our analysis also indicates the possible existence of a carbon bubble with potentially destabilizing effects to the economy.
    Date: 2019–02
  8. By: Masamitsu Kurata; Kazushi Takahashi; Akira Hibiki
    Abstract: Reducing health risks from household air pollution (HAP) and ambient air pollution (AAP) is a critical issue in achieving sustainable development worldwide, especially in low-income countries. Children are particularly at high risk because their respiratory and immune systems are not fully developed. Previous studies have identified the adverse impacts of air pollution on child health; however, most have neither focused on HAP and AAP simultaneously nor addressed differences in the timing and magnitude of prenatal and postnatal exposure across genders. This article examines the impacts of prenatal and postnatal exposure to ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 ƒÊm or less (PM2.5) and household use of solid fuels (a main cause of HAP) on child health in Bangladesh. We combine individual-level data from nationally representative surveys with satellite-based high-resolution data on ambient PM2.5. We find that: (1) the use of solid fuels is associated with respiratory illness among girls but not boys; (2) prenatal exposure to ambient PM2.5 adversely affects stunting, without any clear evidence on gender differences; and (3) postnatal exposure consistently increases the risk of both stunting and respiratory illness for both genders. These results provide new evidence on the heterogeneous impacts of AAP and HAP on children in terms of gender and the timing of exposure. The main policy implications are that intervention against HAP would be more effective by targeting girls and that intervention against AAP should cover not only born children but also pregnant mothers. In sum, our findings highlight the importance of protecting women from air pollution and achieving Target 3.9 of the Sustainable Development Goals.
    Date: 2019–01
  9. By: Lane, Philip R. (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: In this Economic Letter, I describe the challenges posed by climate change for the Irish financial system. An increase in the frequency of severe weather events has implications for macroeconomic outcomes, asset prices, house prices, credit risks and the cost and coverage of insurance contracts. In addition, the necessary transition to a low-carbon economy (supported by a phased schedule of increasing carbon taxes) requires considerable investment by households, firms and the government. If the pace of transition is too slow, a sharper adjustment will be ultimately required, posing macroeconomic and financial stability risks. As the macroprudential authority, the Central Bank will need to ensure that these financial stability risks are contained by improving the climate resilience of the financial system. As the prudential and conduct regulator, the Central Bank also has a lead role in ensuring that financial firms incorporate climate change into strategic and financial plans, while ensuring that consumers have sufficient information to navigate the financial risks posed by climate change.
    Date: 2019–02
  10. By: Marcel Mersch; Eloi Laurent (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: The Independent Commission for Sustainable Equality has been entrusted with a mission to develop a new progressive vision rooted in sustainable development. This mission, aimed at combating growing inequalities in Europe, is inspired by the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals adopted by all European Member States and other countries in the United Nations in 2015. This visionary agenda has still not been fully and clearly incorporated into European policy, or translated into specific European policy objectives. This is the Independent Commission’s first policy report. It issues a call to action for a radically different Europe, through over 100 policy proposals which can be pursued by progressive parties and other actors during the next term from 2019 to 2024, and embedded with a radically different approach to European governance built on a new Sustainable Development Pact. The Independent Commission insists on the urgency of this radical policy action, in the face of several crises that are mutually and increasingly reinforcing each other, and by the need to revive social democracy at a highly critical juncture of its political history. These crises - economic, social, environmental and political - are a result of the prevailing economic system. In the absence of profound change these crises will lead to democratic collapse, either because authoritarian populist and extremist forces will gain decisive power across Europe, or because these economic, social or environmental crises will have reached a destabilising stage for society. For example, the new report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) made the environmental challenge very clear. A new financial crisis, which some experts are already predicting, could have devastating effects on our economies building on the persistent negative effects of the 2008 crisis. Insufficient progress has been made to make the eurozone more resilient to shocks. A continuing deterioration of social conditions, fuelled by rising inequalities and growing insecurity, not least in left behind regions across Europe, in rural areas, and in and around our urban centres, could present serious systemic risks, channeling more electoral support to authoritarian populist and extremist parties. This bleak outlook stands in contrast to what could be achieved if radically progressive policies were successfully pursued. This is what the Independent Commission has sought to contribute by laying out a detailed and concrete policy strategy - as well as a message of hope and of determination that a different Europe can be achieved; a message also to progressive parties that they must take the political lead, join up forces with trade unions and with progressive organisations in civil society, to mobilise from bottom up and claim a different political path. There is an inconvenient truth about Europe. Nearly one third of our children and our young people are at risk of poverty or in poverty, millions of young people cannot find a job to start shaping their adult life, and more than half of adult Europeans believe that younger generations will have a life worse than their own. Through the policies in this report, we can also engage younger generations and tell them that there is no predetermined bleak future. If we take action to modify Europe’s course, a very different society can emerge - a society of sustainable equality, of well-being for everyone, of economic, social and ecological balance and peace, leaving no person and no place behind.
    Keywords: Equality; Sustainable development; European policy
    Date: 2018–11
  11. By: Adeline Gueret (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE)); Paul Malliet (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Aurélien Saussay (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Xavier Timbeau (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: The international process for tackling climate change endured several backslashes since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Issues around the respective responsibilities are not fully solved yet. The underlying question of how to share efforts in order to reach a Zero Net Emissions state remains largely unclear and the INDCs process has still to deliver a pathway for decarbonization. In the last years, the concept of global carbon budget has emerged as one of the most direct ways to materialize the constraint from the climate. It mainly relies on the idea that only a limited quantity of carbon dioxide can be released in the atmosphere if we want to stay below the 2°C temperature change threshold above pre-industrial levels and, if possible, below +1.5°C, as agreed at the Paris Conference in 2015. By comparing what is in our carbon budget to what is done to reduce the carbon footprint of societies, we calculate a distance to the climate constraint. Expressed in euro this distance, called the “climate debt”, measure how much we avoid paying by delaying climate change mitigation. Using different rules for sharing the burden, acknowledging there is no negotiated nor consensual way to share it, we calculate this climate debt for main EU countries. The first step of the following work is to compute a carbon budget for both the European Union and member countries mixing population based sharing (egalitarian) for EU and rest of world budget and emission based sharing (grandfathering) for EU countries. In a second step, we determine how many years are left before these budgets are depleted at the regional and national levels, which requires assumptions on the future emissions trend. Combining these trends with assumptions on the abatement cost of remaining carbon dioxide emissions after the depletion date allows us to evaluate the “climate debt”. More precisely, the “climate debt” is the amount of money that will have to be invested or paid by countries for them not to exceed their carbon budget. This work led us to three key policy insights. First, there are few years left for major European countries before exhausting their carbon budget under the +2°C target. As for the +1.5°C target, carbon budgets are exhausted for EU main countries, which are thus running excessive climate deficits. Secondly, the carbon debt should be considered as one of the major issues of the decades to come since in the baseline scenario it represents about 50% of the EU GDP to stay below +2°C (120% for staying below +1.5°C). Thirdly, the results of the estimation of this carbon debt are subject to numerous moral, ethical and technical assumptions that should motivate further and urgent investigations on this subject, critical to climate change mitigation, from both state bodies and independent research institutes.
    Keywords: Climate change; Paris Agreement; Carbon budger
    Date: 2018–12
  12. By: Wolfram Schlenker; Charles A Taylor
    Abstract: An emerging literature examines how agents update their beliefs about climate change. Most studies have relied on indirect belief measures or opinion polls. We analyze a direct measure: prices of financial products whose payouts are tied to future weather outcomes. We compare these market expectations to climate model output for the years 2002 to 2018 as well as observed weather station data across eight cities in the US. All datasets show statistically significant and comparable warming trends. Nonparametric estimates suggest that trends in weather markets follow climate model predictions and are not based on shorter-term variation in observed weather station data. When money is at stake, agents are accurately anticipating warming trends in line with the scientific consensus of climate models.
    JEL: G17 Q54
    Date: 2019–02
  13. By: Gustavo Rodríguez Albor; James Frasser Camargo; Deisy Andapiña Acosta
    Abstract: Desarrollo sostenible, modelo extractivista e inversión extranjera en Colombia* Sustainable development, extractive model and foreign investment in Colombia Gustavo Rodríguez Albor** James Frasser Camargo*** Deisy Andapiña Acosta**** * Investigación cofinanciada por The University of British Columbia (Canadá) y la Universidad Autónoma del Caribe (Colombia). ** Economista y doctor en Ciencias Sociales. Docente investigador tiempo completo de la Universidad Autónoma del Caribe. *** Administrador de empresas. Asistente de investigación de la Universidad Autónoma del Caribe. **** Administrador de empresas. Asistente de investigación de la Universidad Autónoma del Caribe. Resumen El papel que cumple el sector extractivo en la economía ha sido un tema de amplio debate. Este artículo analiza el crecimiento de la inversión canadiense en Colombia, particularmente hacia las actividades extractivas, poniendo énfasis en dos casos de multinacionales de este país norteamericano. Los resultados indican que el incremento en los últimos años de la explotación de carbón, petróleo y oro, entre otros, ha generado consecuencias negativas en la economía nacional, el medioambiente, la salud y vulneración de derechos humanos y laborales, incluso en las empresas canadienses, suscritas bajo un acuerdo de ética y responsabilidad en el Tratado de Libre Comercio entre Colombia — Canadá, han estado en el centro de la crítica. Tal situación y la actual caída de los precios internacionales del petróleo y el carbón muestran la vulnerabilidad de una economía dependiente de los commodities, lo cual exige replantear el modelo de desarrollo en los países de América Latina. Palabras clave: Economía extractiva, desarrollo sostenible, neoextractivismo, inversión extranjera, Commodity consensus. Clasificación JEL: C22, C53, D43, L94, Q47. Abstract The role of the extractive sector in economy has been a topic of debate in recent years. This paper analyzes the growth of Canadian investment in Colombia, particularly in relation to mining activities, focusing on two multinational cases of this North American country. Findings indicate that increasing exploitation of coal, oil and gold has negatively impacted the Colombian economy, the domestic environment and the public health of local communities. In addition, the extractive economy has increased violation of human and labor rights, where even Canadian companies–which have previously signed agreements to comply with ethical and social responsibility practices under the Free Trade Agreement between Colombia and Canada–have been at the center of criticism. This context and the fall in international oil and coal prices expose vulnerability of an economy dependent on commodities, which lead us to rethinking and debate the Latin American development model. Keywords: Extractive economy, sustainable development, neo—extractivism, foreign investment, Commodity consensus. JEL Codes: C22, C53, D43, L94, Q47.. 1. INTRODUCCIÓN El papel del sector extractivo en la economía ha sido un tema que ha generado un amplio debate, pues mientras para algunos es una fuente relevante de ingreso y un gran generador de divisas, especialmente en los países en vías de desarrollo, para otros el efecto de este sector en la economía es considerado como nulo e incluso negativo. (Cimoli, Dosi y Stiglitz, 2009; Ocampo 2005 y 2011). Precisamente, esta situación ha centrado el debate alrededor del modelo de desarrollo en América Latina, en donde desde el inicio del nuevo milenio el “boom” de los altos precios de los commodities en el mercado internacional y de los bienes de consumo demandados por los países desarrollados y las potencias emergentes llevaron a que entre 2002 y 2014 las economías de esta región implementaran un estilo de desarrollo neoextractivista que denominaron “El Consenso de los Commodities”. En el caso de Colombia, diferentes eventos buscaron favorecer la actividad extractivista en ese período. Particularmente, la inversión canadiense en Colombia fue una de las que más fijaron su atención en el sector extractivo, lo que a su vez elevó sustancialmente la exploración y extracción de minerales y petróleo, al tiempo que se incrementaron las disputas y conflictos. Con la caída de los precios internacionales del petróleo y carbón, desde agosto de 2014, el “post consenso de los commodities” desnudó la volatilidad de la actividad, así como las consecuencias y efectos negativos del modelo implementado. Este artículo realiza un análisis de la inversión canadiense en Colombia, particularmente en las actividades extractivas a través de revisión de estadísticas oficiales del Departamento Nacional de Estadística (DANE), el Banco de La República, la Agencia Nacional Minera (ANM), documentos e informes de ONG y de información de campo para conocer de cerca tres casos de empresas canadienses: Pacific Rubiales Energy, Pacific Coal Resource y Grand Colombia Gold Corporation. Para ello, primero se exponen las características del consensus commodities en América Latina. Luego se muestran algunas cifras que evidencian el auge extractivo en Colombia. Finalmente, se presentan los datos más relevantes de la inversión dirigida al sector extractivo en el país y se muestran evidencias de los conflictos y disputas que han generado sus actuaciones. 2. COMMODITIES CONSENSUS: EL NEOEXTRACTIVISMO FRENTE AL DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE El inicio del nuevo milenio trajo consigo varios cambios en el contexto económico global. Uno de ellos fue el alza lenta pero sostenida de los precios de los commodities por más de una década, particularmente aquellos de naturaleza extractiva como el petróleo, el carbón y el oro, que influyó de manera directa en las áreas geográficas que poseen este tipo de riqueza como es América Latina. Esta circunstancia creó un nuevo orden económico basado en la exploración, extracción y exportación masiva de recursos naturales primarios en buena parte de los países de esta región. Para el caso de América Latina, la demanda de commodities ha estado concentrada en productos alimenticios, hidrocarburos, metales y minerales. Es importante anotar que si bien la actividad extractiva no es nueva en esta región, este nuevo orden económico generó circunstancias particulares para América Latina que han llamado la atención sobre la forma en que se condicionó el desarrollo de estos países. Al respecto Svampa (2013, p, 30) explica que América Latina ha pasado del “Consenso de Washington” asentado sobre la valorización financiera, al “Consenso de los Commodities”, basado en la exportación de bienes primarios en gran escala. Explica la nueva conceptualización, por un lado, a partir de una fuerte reprimarización de las economías latinoamericanas, al acentuar la reorientación de estas hacia actividades primarias extractivas, con escaso valor agregado, y por otro, la profundización de la dinámica de desposesión o despojo de tierras, en sacrificio de áreas con riqueza ambiental en pos del desarrollo. La adopción de este nuevo modelo extractivista no solo se manifestó en el orden económico, sino también en lo político—ideológico. Por un lado, permite el surgimiento de gobiernos progresistas que cuestionan el modelo neoliberal por otro lado, gobiernos siguen una agenda política conservadora dentro del marco neoliberal. Por ejemplo, la visión ortodoxa, como la que adopta Colombia, ha actuado promoviendo abiertamente la inversión extranjera a través de acuerdos binacionales, ajustes de las normativas que favorezcan la protección del capital, e incluso la defensa de las actuaciones de las empresas extractivas mediante la militarización de las zonas donde actúan. En todo caso, este período también coincidió con la creciente preocupación global por el medioambiente y las consecuencias cada vez más tangibles derivadas del cambio climático. Claramente, esta situación genera una contraposición frente al modelo neoextractivo. Precisamente, este nuevo Consenso combinó elementos del discurso neoliberal con un discurso liberal global con el fin de neutralizar la crítica. (Svampa, 2011, p. 122). El concepto de desarrollo sostenible, que implica el desplazamiento de los límites propuestos por los ecologistas, es una muestra de ello. La caída de dólar desde el tercer trimestre de 2014 hasta la actualidad ha desnudado la fragilidad de las economías dependientes de los recursos primarios. Este período post commodities consensus hace necesario evaluar y reflexionar sobre el modelo de desarrollo más pertinente para estas naciones, la sostenibilidad de su accionar económico y la importancia que en todo caso reviste la actividad extractiva. 3. EL AUGE EXTRACTIVISTA EN COLOMBIA: BENEFICIOS Y EFECTOS NEGATIVOS 3.1. Commodities Consensus en Colombia (2001—2014) Aunque Colombia no es una potencia petrolera, tan solo el crudo le genera el 21 % de los ingresos corrientes con casi 13 000 millones de dólares anuales entre regalías, impuestos y derechos económicos (DANE, 2015). Durante el período 2001 a 2014, la economía colombiana se acostumbró a depender del petróleo. Aunque la minería tiene una participación relativamente menor que el petróleo, juntos alcanzaron a generar entre 2003 y 2014 la cuarta parte de los ingresos del país. La producción del carbón en 2013 logró superar por primera vez los 100 millones de toneladas métricas, mientras que la explotación de petróleo sobrepasó el umbral de producción del millón de barriles diarios. Dentro de la PIB, la participación representó entre el 6,1 y 7,9 %, y logró pasar de 22 620 a 35 812 de miles de millones de pesos, es decir, un incremento del 58,3 %. En 1997 la participación de este sector (minería, hidrocarburos y otros minerales) correspondió al 23,5 % del total exportado, mientras que hacia 2012 y 2014 representaron más del 50 % por su parte, el grupo de bienes no tradicionales perdió participación, como el pequeño sector industrial exportador. (Rodríguez, Peláez y García, 2014, p. 126). Otra de las variables en la cual se reflejó el Commodities Consensus fue en el incremento de la Inversión Extranjera Directa (IED). En el caso de Colombia, en 2010 contaba con un acumulado de IED de USD87 160,3 millones, en el que el sector petróleo participa con 25,7% del total acumulado y el sector minas con el 23,3 %, es decir, alrededor del 49 % de la IED en este sector. A nivel sectorial, los flujos de IED en Colombia estuvieron concentrados en los sectores de petróleo y minería; en 2010 alcanzaron su máximo al llegar a un 76,5 %. Uno de los aspectos que más se destaca en favor de las actividades minero—extractivas es los ingresos que genera para el Estado y sus entidades territoriales por medio de las “regalías”. Aunque los esquemas de liquidación dependen principalmente del tipo de mineral o hidrocarburo y el nivel de producción que realicen las empresas, entre 2002 y 2016 han representado unos 319 423 de miles de millones de pesos. Según un informe del DNP (2015), las regalías se han constituido en una fuente de recursos primordial de las entidades territoriales, al punto que, en 2014, por cada 100 pesos que invirtieron en el país, 17 pesos provenían de las regalías. Este mismo documento afirma que estos recursos han contribuido en un 15 % del crecimiento del país, en la generación de más de 324 mil nuevos empleos entre 2012 y 2015, e incluso han contribuido a reducir en un 17 % de la reducción de la pobreza total (468 mil pobres menos y 111 mil pobres extremos menos). Ahora, sobre los efectos económicos de esto, se puede anotar el paso del auge a la decadencia. Así, se pueden exponer los síntomas de enfermedad holandesa, de modo que si se realiza un seguimiento al comportamiento de la tasa de cambio, se puede observar una lenta pero progresiva revaluación de la moneda colombiana frente al dólar entre 2003 y 2013. En 2003, la tasa de cambio de pesos por dólar se encontraba en la paridad $ 2845 por dólar. Desde 2009 la tasa de cambio nominal ha estado entre $1750 y 2050, gracias a los esfuerzos del Banco de La República, pero en algunos casos ha estado cerca de los $ 1700. (Rodríguez, Peláez y García, 2014, p. 135). Con la caída global del precio del petróleo, el efecto de devaluación ha sido galopante al punto que la tasa de cambio tuvo su punto más alto con $3434 pesos por dólar (12 de febrero de 2016), donde el comportamiento ha estado fuertemente asociado a los precios internacionales del crudo. Sobre el efecto en la industria y el empleo, se observa que entre 2003 y 2013 el sector minero—energético creció cerca de un 11 %; contrario a la producción industrial, que cayó un 1,9%. El PIB industrial pasó del 15 % (1998) a 12 % (2011), mientras que el empleo de este sector cayó del 23 % al 13 % en tan sólo una década. En todo caso, existe la escasa relación con la industria o encadenamiento productivo que generan el oro y el carbón en Colombia, debido a que son exportados en bruto casi en su totalidad, 99 % del oro y entre 92 y 95 % del carbón. (Rodríguez, Peláez y García, 2014, p. 137). Además, al revisar los datos del DANE, entre 2002 y 2013 emplearon el 1,2 % de las personas del país, siendo el sector estratégico nacional que menos personas emplea. A pesar de la rápida devaluación de los últimos 3 años, la producción y el empleo industrial no muestran síntomas de recuperación; por el contrario, los costos de importación de insumos y tecnología ha presionado el alza de los precios de una buena parte de las manufacturas nacionales. La balanza comercial negativa (X — M): Si se quita el sector minero energético, el déficit comercial se acerca a los 30 000 millones de dólares, según cifras de 2011. Sobre el efecto negativo en la tributación y el recaudo, se tiene que, de acuerdo con Soler (2012), las exenciones tributarias a la gran minería que se han venido adelantando con la Ley 285 de 2011 disminuyen en más de un 40 % los importes por regalías de las actividades mineras. Garay (2013, pp. 145—146), encontró en su estudio importantes ventajas tributarias de las empresas mineras en Colombia en el impuesto de renta. Pero más allá de estos beneficios, llama la atención la diferencia entre las tasas nominales de impuesto y las realmente aplicadas. Según Garay, mientras que entre 2007—2010 existían tasas nominales del 33 % sobre la renta gravable, en la práctica el sector minero (excluyendo hidrocarburos) terminó pagando tasas efectivas de solo el 10 %. A partir del año gravable 2011, con la eliminación de las deducciones especiales por adquisición de activos, las tasas efectivas son cerca de un 15 %, menos de la mitad de las tasas nominales del 33 %. En algunos casos, las deducciones en el impuesto de renta de empresas multinacionales del sector han llevado reportar declaraciones sin saldo pendiente de pago o con saldo a favor, es decir, con valor cero de pago. (Pardo, 2014). Al respecto, el Banco Mundial (2012) ha señalado que el Gobierno colombiano aprueba beneficios tributarios a empresas intensivas en capital ?como aquellas del sector petrolero y de carbón?, sin objetivos claros, de manera indefinida y sin estudios de costo—beneficio que le permitan evaluar si los objetivos realmente se cumplen. Ahora, sobre los efectos en el medio ambiente y la salud, observamos que en 2010 por causa del fenómeno de La Niña Colombia llegó a ocupar el tercer puesto en el “Global Climate Risk Index”, elaborado por la ONG europea Germanwatch. Según las versiones 2015 y 2017 del “ranking”, el país mejoró su categoría, pasando al puesto 32 con datos correspondientes al año 2013 y puesto 33 al año 2015, respectivamente. Sin embargo, hasta la fecha las altas temperaturas en el país han incidido negativamente, a tal punto de provocar que haya desaparecido el 84 % del área glaciar; por otro lado, hasta 2015 fueron registrados 3985 incendios forestales debido a las altas temperaturas que afectaron más de 100 000 hectáreas. Ese mismo año, según la Presidencia de la República, se identificaron 285 (25,8 % del total) municipios que presentaron desabastecimiento de agua por efecto de la reducción de las precipitaciones. Aproximadamente 261 325 hectáreas agrícolas están afectadas y cerca de 67 167 animales pecuarios se han visto perjudicados. La actividad minera del país en páramos, ríos, laderas y zonas de reserva natural ha sido uno de los principales factores con incidencia negativa. Según declaraciones del director de Planeación Nacional, Simón Gaviria (2017), en lugares como Caucasia o Ayapel, los niveles de mercurio llegan a ser 20 veces mayores que los aceptados por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS). El envenenamiento por mercurio, más conocido como síndrome de Minamata, inicia cuando el metal se acumula en el cerebro, lo cual produce complicaciones en el sistema nervioso, insuficiencia cardiaca, renal, respiratoria, dermatitis, etc. La Universidad de Antioquia en 2014 realizó un estudió a 190 alumnos entre 8 y 18 años de edad, en uno de los municipios del nordeste antioqueño y se encontró que casi el 87 % tenían alteración en las funciones relacionadas con la capacidad de pensamiento abstracto y de planificación, y el 60 % pérdida de la memoria. Este tipo de problemáticas se repiten por todo el departamento. En el caso de Caucasia, hay mineros y compradores de oro con problemas como falta de coordinación, temblores en los manos, párpados y lengua; pérdida de la memoria y estados de ánimo irascible, entre otras afecciones. 4. INVERSIÓN CANADIENSE EN EL SECTOR EXTRACTIVO COLOMBIANO 4.1. Commodities Consensus canadiense en Colombia (2001—2014) Aunque la llegada de las empresas canadienses a la economía colombiana data de los años cincuenta, cuando dos de sus firmas operaban en el país, en realidad, es en los años noventa cuando comenzaron a llegar en mayor número para la exploración y explotación minera gracias a las reformas petroleras que se gestaron en Colombia. Sin embargo, es desde el año 2000 que se produjo un aumento sostenido de nuevas empresas canadienses en Colombia. De acuerdo con la corporación para el desarrollo de las exportaciones de Canadá (EDC: Export Development Canada), “Canadá se ha convertido en el país inversionista líder en Colombia”. En este sentido, las inversiones procedentes de este país se centraron en el sector de hidrocarburos y minero en un 64 % para 2012. Otro aspecto que explica el incremento de la inversión canadiense en el mercado colombiano, es la activa participación de Canadá en la construcción de la legislación minera de Colombia, por ejemplo, tanto en 1997 como en 2006, la Agencia Canadiense de Desarrollo Internacional (CIDA) y el Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) han tenido que ver en la construcción del marco normativo del sector minero en Colombia, lo cual le ha facilitado a las empresas canadienses petroleras la entrada al territorio. La firma del Tratado de Libre Comercio en 2011 ha permitido el aumento de la participación de Canadá en la industria extractiva colombiana, constituye el 65 % del total de empresas canadienses presentes en Colombia. Las empresas mineras se encuentran localizadas en 20 departamentos de Colombia. En todos los puntos donde se desarrollan proyectos extractivos existen escenarios de frecuentes violaciones a los derechos humanos y laborales, afectaciones medioambientales y a la salud, desplazamiento de personas, robos de tierras y acaparamiento de títulos, disputas y tensiones entre comunidad—empresa y desvíos de recursos estatales y corrupción. En las zonas de explotación aurífera existen casos de amenazas y asesinatos de líderes comunales y sindicales, generalmente realizados por grupos paramilitares. Un informe realizado por Peace Brigades International (PBI) de 2011 argumenta que los municipios con riquezas minero—energéticas representan el 35 % del total nacional, pero se asocian con el 87 % de las personas desplazadas y el 80 % de los casos de violaciones a los DDHH y del Derecho Internacional Humanitario en Colombia. El mismo documento señala que tan solo en la región entre los departamentos de Bolívar ?jurisdicción del municipio de Santa Rosa? y Antioquia ?municipio del Bagre?, zona que alberga una de las reservas más grandes de oro del país y en donde operan las canadienses Colombia Goldfields, B2Gold y Midasco Capital, entre 1997 y 2009 fueron desplazadas alrededor de 36 mil personas, 700 se reportaron como desaparecidas, 380 civiles fueron asesinados por actores armados ilegales y se realizaron 333 ejecuciones extrajudiciales (PBI, 2011, p. 5). Midasco Capital recibió varias licencias de explotación minera en las zonas donde más violencia se presentó. Por su parte, el informe de CENSAT (2009) indica que en el departamento de Santander (al nororiente de Colombia), el conflicto armado ha obligado en varias ocasiones a la reubicación forzada de la población asentada en las inmediaciones del proyecto canadiense Greystar –hoy Eco Oro?, en donde la Defensoría del Pueblo ha registrado la presencia renovada de paramilitares. Un caso similar fue documentado por INDEPAZ (2011), que informa que en el municipio de Suárez (departamento del Cauca al suroccidente del país), la comunidad del concejo La Toma ha sido objeto de amenazas y desplazamiento forzado por motivo de los intereses que sobre su territorio han tenido el Estado y las empresas multinacionales. Entre las empresas que han recibido títulos mineros de exploración y explotación se encuentra la canadiense Cosigo Resources. Un estudio de González, Salcedo y Rangel (2011) describe más de quince casos de empresas canadienses que han incurrido en acciones poco éticas. Un ejemplo, son las acciones de desplazamiento a través del uso de la violencia y el terror que involucra a la empresa Kappa Resources Colombia Ltda., hoy propiedad de Pacific Rubiales Energy, también canadiense la cual con fin de hacerse a unos terrenos ubicados en las inmediaciones de la zona de explotación presionó con grupos armados al margen de la ley el abandono de los predios. Las confesiones del cabecilla paramilitar del “bloque Tolima” que ejecutó la acción citan directamente a la exgerente de la empresa como la autora intelectual del hecho. Rochlin (2015) destaca el caso de Gran Colombia Gold Corporation, que realiza extracción de oro en Marmato, el cual ha estado envuelto en diferentes enfrentamientos con la población nativa por despojos de predios, amenazas a líderes comunales y acciones de grupos paramilitares que han favorecido a la compañía. Caso Pacific Rubiales: Petróleo El departamento del Meta se convirtió entre 2007 y 2014 en el principal productor de petróleo del país, con el 47,1 % del total de la producción nacional, seguido de Casanare y Arauca. En el municipio de Puerto Gaitán opera la compañía canadiense Pacific Rubiales Energy (PRE), la cual se dedica a la producción y explotación de crudo pesado y gas natural. Esta empresa es el segundo productor de gas y petróleo del país. A fines de 2011, Pacific Rubiales operaba 39 bloques petroleros en Colombia (nueve de producción y treinta de exploración). Rubiales, su principal campo petrolero, contaba con unos 80 pozos productores de petróleo. Las principales violaciones a los derechos humanos y laborales que denunciaron los trabajadores consistían en violación de la jornada máxima de trabajo, que excede hasta 18 horas diarias; 40 días de trabajo continuo sin descanso; no pago de salarios a trabajadores en periodo de prueba; no pago de salarios a un grupo de trabajadores por un tiempo mayor a dos meses que pertenecen a una cooperativa de conductores (empresa subcontratista); condiciones insalubres de los alojamientos; discriminación en el salario; discriminación por parte de la empresa respecto a trabajadores que se encuentran afiliados a la Unión Sindical Obrera (USO), entre otras. Las tensiones con los trabajadores en el campamento Rubiales han hecho que este prácticamente permanezca militarizado desde 2011, tal como lo documentan los diarios de campo de la Comisión Colombiana de Juristas (2013). Caso Pacific Coal: Carbón La zona de El Cerrejón es la más importante al poseer el 90 % de las reservas del carbón del país. Dentro de la zona Central se encuentra La Caypa, una mina de carbón a cielo abierto. Las operaciones de explotación de carbón en esta mina son realizadas por la compañía Carbones Colombianos del Cerrejón S.A. (CCC). Desde 2010 CCC es propiedad de Pacific Coal Resources Ltd. (PCR). Actualmente se producen 1013 Kt de carbón térmico anuales, a menos de 800 metros de Chancleta y Patilla, comunidades rurales que albergan a 25 familias. Varios elementos moldean las relaciones entre estas pequeñas comunidades y PCR. Por un lado, las externalidades negativas afectan fuertemente a sus habitantes: emisiones atmosféricas de carbón, la alteración del paisaje, afectación de los ecosistemas y la disputa por los recursos. Las emisiones atmosféricas son una situación de todos los días. El polvillo de carbón afecta la calidad del aire que respiran los habitantes de Chancleta y Patilla. Como consecuencia, “buena parte de la población presenta afecciones respiratorias, afectación ocular, mareos y dolores abdominales”. (Rodríguez, Agudelo y Blanco, 2015, p. 140). Medidas para contrarrestar el efecto negativo del carbón en el aire implementadas por PCR como el riego y humectación las 24 horas del día han generado nuevos problemas: la disputa de un recurso como el agua del Río Ranchería. Cada hora de riego requiere de 10 000 litros de agua que son tomados por medio de motobombas de este rio, lo que no solo amenaza la disponibilidad de este líquido vital. Por su parte, la afectación paisajística, la conformación de botaderos y la pérdida de la capa vegetal por las actividades de minería; deterioran la calidad de vida y los ecosistemas. (Rodríguez et al., 2015). Caso Grand Colombia Gold Corporation: Oro El municipio de Marmato, ubicado en el departamento de Caldas, alberga una industria extractiva transnacional activa; los habitantes del territorio obtienen lucro del oro teniendo en cuenta la sostenibilidad a largo plazo; por otro lado, las compañías mineras procuran extraer con velocidad la mayor cantidad del metal posible, como lo hace la compañía de recursos canadienses Gran Colombia Gold Corporation (GCGC) desde 2010. ha intentado materializar la posibilidad de una mina a cielo abierto, la cual implicaría la reubicación de la comunidad de Marmato, lo cual generaría una afectación directa a su integridad y a los derechos étnicos, ya que aproximadamente el 70 % de su población es indígena o afrocolombiana. Además de los derechos vulnerados histórica y actualmente, involucra el daño ambiental que acumula el área debido a décadas de extracción tóxica de oro, la reubicación afectaría a la población, que vive en la montaña, así como a la flora y fauna del río Cauca, sin contar las poblaciones que aprovechan las aguas del segundo río más largo de Colombia. Los mineros artesanales fueron criminalizados por el Gobierno debido a que no poseen títulos mineros legales, lo cual genera que estos títulos sean comprados y legalizados por las mineras transnacionales a un menor precio, lo cual conlleva que las corporaciones como GCGC adquieran más territorio, mientras que merma el poder de decisión de los locales, lo cual resulta en una mayor presión para obtener el minado a cielo abierto. A nivel general para el sector extractivo, según el análisis de la industria minera, presentado por la Contraloría de la República, se resaltan las falencias en derechos étnicos, derechos laborales, desarrollo sostenible, y una apropiada regulación del Estado, lo cual no es ajeno para el caso de Marmato. Es notoria la importancia que las regalías generadas por el sector extractivo al ser uno de los principales ingresos del Gobierno colombiano, en este caso GCGC genera para el Gobierno entre el 0.4 % y el 4 %, y un 6 % en casos especiales para títulos mineros de autoridades locales. Cerca del 73 % del oro es usado en joyería comercial, solo el 30 % de la producción en 2012 vino de productores autorizados, lo cual indica que 70 % de la producción fue realizada con mercurio, lo cual genera un impacto ambiental negativo mayor que los autorizados, quienes utilizan un método menos dañino, enfatizando así la importancia de la legalización de aquellos mineros que no cuentan con títulos mineros lícitos por parte del Estado, tal como lo menciona Rochlin (2015). 4.2. Post consensus commodities El impacto es más notorio en sitios como Puerto Gaitán, en donde hasta hace unos años se hacían grandes conciertos con artistas como Marc Anthony, Daddy Yankee o Juan Luis Guerra. Campo Rubiales se convirtió en el campo más destacado de Pacific. Pasó de producir 230 mil a 25 mil barriles diarios de crudo. Para finales de 2015, la flota activa de transportes con la que movilizaba petróleo, suministros y personal, pasó de 320 vehículos a solo 16. (Lafuente, 2015). El sindicato de trabajadores de Ecopetrol denunció el despido de unos 10 mil empleados en los primeros meses de 2016. El gremio estima muy probablemente esa cifra haya llegado a 25 mil, una quinta parte de la fuerza laboral directa del sector. Solo en los dos primeros meses de 2016 las empresas que prestan servicios a Pacific Rubiales despidieron a 2500 trabajadores. La caída en los precios del petróleo ha suscitado efectos negativos para la economía colombiana. El presupuesto de ingresos de 2015 derivado del sector petrolero fue realizado con un precio promedio de USD 97 dólares, pero con el comportamiento del crudo, el ingreso estimado se redujo ostensiblemente. Según la Asociación Colombiana del Petróleo (ACP), por cada dólar que caiga el barril, son 400 000 millones de pesos menos para el Estado colombiano (Chagüendo, 2014), lo cual obliga al Gobierno a aumentar su endeudamiento o realizar recorte de gastos, tal como ha sucedido entre 2015 y 2017. Este fenómeno no solo afecta a la industria y al presupuesto de la nación, sino directamente a los ciudadanos del común, pues con la disminución del precio del crudo, la tasa de cambio del dólar aumenta, lo cual genera un incremento en los precios de alimentos, bienes importados e insumos, lo cual ha llevado a una inflación más elevada en 2015 y 2016. Aunque Colombia no es una potencia petrolera, el crudo genera el 21 % de los ingresos corrientes con casi 13 000 millones de dólares anuales entre regalías, impuestos y derechos económicos. Los ingresos del país tienen una alta dependencia del sector petrolero, lo cual incide en el estancamiento del desarrollo en otros sectores de la economía colombiana, es decir que al proyectar menos ingresos por la caída del precio, es previsible una gran dificultad para generar fuentes de trabajo y dinamismo en la economía. 5. REFLEXIONES FINALES: HACIA UN VERDADERO MODELO DE DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE Es importante revisar cuidadosamente el papel de la explotación minera y petrolera en Colombia; los resultados en el período del commodity consensus no son los mejores. La flexibilización de la legislación y la firma de los TLC incentivaron peligrosamente el capital foráneo, enfocado básicamente en actividades extractivas. El estudio encontró que a nivel macro es altamente vulnerable la economía colombiana a los cambios de los precios del petróleo y a aspectos asociados a la llamada “enfermedad holandesa”. Los desequilibrios presupuestales, el creciente endeudamiento y el aumento de la inflación entre 2015 y 2016 son muestra de ello. Por otro lado, los hallazgos muestran que este tipo de empresas extractivas en vez de propiciar un ambiente de trabajo digno y de respeto por el entorno, son, por el contrario, las principales vulneradoras de derechos, transgresoras del medioambiente, con poca responsabilidad ética de sus acciones y partícipe de situaciones que las comprometen con hechos violentos, lo cual no es precisamente un modelo de desarrollo sostenible. Los diferentes aspectos expuestos evidencian un débil marco institucional colombiano para hacer frente a estas situaciones, una escasa disposición de la empresa para realizar conductas éticamente responsables y poblaciones afectadas con poca capacidad de hacer valer sus derechos básicos. La era postconsensus dejó ver la vulnerabilidad de este modelo de desarrollo, lo cual hace pensar seriamente si es necesario comprometer el medioambiente y el bienestar de comunidades vulnerables por un crecimiento efímero, que no propicia el desarrollo y no es nada sostenible. REFERENCIAS Banco Mundial (2012). El Gasto Tributario en Colombia: Una propuesta de evaluación integral y sistémica de este instrumento de política Banco Internacional de Reconstrucción y Fomento / Banco Mundial. Washington. Recuperado el 26 de marzo de 2016 de CENSAT—Agua Viva y MINING WATCH Canadá (2009). “Tierras y conflicto. Extracción de recursos, derechos humanos y la responsabilidad social empresarial: compañías canadienses en Colombia”. Inter Pares, p. 1. Chagüendo, F. E. (2014, 26 de octubre). Economía colombiana, en jaque por la caída del precio del petróleo. El País. Recuperado de—en—jaque—por—la—caida—del—precio—del—petroleo.html Cimoli, M. Dosi, G. y Stiglitz, J. (2009). Institutions and Policies Shaping Industrial Development: An Introductory Note”. En M. Cimoli, G. Dosi y J. E. Stiglitz (eds.), The Political Economy of Capabilities Accumulation: the Past and Future of Policies for Industrial Development. Nueva York: Oxford University Press. Comisión Colombiana de Juristas (2013). Informe de quejas de los trabajadores de la Pacific Rubiales Energy. Defensoría del Pueblo (2010). Minería de hecho en Colombia. Defensoría Delegada para los Derechos Colectivos y del Ambiente, Colombia. Bogotá, D.C., Colombia, recuperado el 12 de noviembre de 2015 de$FILE/La—miner%C3%ADa—de—hecho—en—Colombia.pdf Departamento Nacional de Planeación [DANE](2015). El sistema general de regalías de Colombia en tres años de implementación. Ponente: Simón Gaviria. Seminario “Regalías y Calidad: una inversión en Colombia”. Garay, L. (2013). Minería en Colombia. Fundamentos para superar el modelo extractivista. Contraloría General de la República. Global Climate Risk Index (2010). “Global Climate Risk Index 2010: Who is most vulnerable? Weather—related loss events since 1990 and how Copenhagen needs to respond. Germanwath. González, J. Salcedo, D. y Rangel, L. (2011). Impactos en los Derechos Humanos de la implementación del Tratado de Libre Comercio entre Colombia y Canadá. Línea Base. Documentos de la Escuela, 95. Bogotá, D.C.: Escuela Nacional Sindical.—aa—files/45bdec76fa6b8848acf029430d10bb5a/linea_base_TLC_Canada_Enero28_1.pdf Instituto de Estudios para el Desarrollo y la Paz [INDEPAZ] (2011). Megaminería y reasentamientos forzados (p. 108 — 109). Bogotá, D. C., Colombia. Lafuente, Javier. (4 de agosto de 2015). La burbuja del petróleo estalla en Puerto Gaitán. El Espectador. Recuperado de—del—petroleo—estalla—puerto—gaitan—articulo—577184 Ocampo, J. A. (2005). La búsqueda de la eficiencia dinámica: dinámica estructural y crecimiento económico en los países en desarrollo. En J. A. Ocampo (ed.), Más allá de las reformas: Dinámica estructural y vulnerabilidad macroeconómica (ed.), Bogotá, D. C.: CEPAL, Banco Mundial y Alfaomega. Ocampo, J. A. (2011). El auge de los precios de productos básicos y el riesgo de enfermedad holandesa en América Latina. Boletín Informativo Techint, 336, 25 —48. Pardo, A. (2014). Minería, Renta Minera y Tributación. Documento Fescol. Colombia Punto Medio. Bogotá. Recuperado el 24 Julio de 2016 de,%20renta%20minera%20y%20tributaci%C3%B3n%202.pdf Peace Brigades International [PBI](2011). Minería en Colombia: ¿A qué precio?”. PBI Colombia. Boletín Informativo n° 18, p. 6. Rochlin, J. (2015). Ethnicity, episteme and gold: The struggle for human security in Marmato. En J. Rochlin (Ed.). Profit, Security, and human rights in developing countries: Global lessons from Canada´s extractive sector in Colombia (pp. 75—101). New York: Routledge. Rodríguez Albor, G. Peláez, M. y García, R. (2014). Inversión canadiense en Colombia: Un análisis de las empresas extractivas. Economía del Caribe, 14, 115—148. Rodríguez Albor, G. Agudelo, J. y Blanco Rangel, I. (2015). Open pit coal mining in Northern Colombia. Institutional weakness and the supremacy of capital. En J. Rochlin (Ed.). Profit, Security, and human rights in developing countries: Global lessons from Canada´s extractive sector in Colombia (pp.129—151). New York: Routledge. Soler, J. P. (2012). Locomotora minero—energética: Mitos y conflictos socio ambientales. CENSAT Agua Viva. Amigos de la Tierra Colombia. Svampa, M. (2011). Resource Extractivism and Alternatives: Latin American Perspectives on Development”. TransNational Institute. Recuperado el 5 de abril de 2015 de Svampa, M. (2013). Consenso de los Commodities y lenguajes de valoración en América Latina. Nueva Sociedad, 244, 30—46.
    Date: 2017–07–03
  14. By: Papaioannou, Kostadis J.; de Haas, Michiel
    Abstract: A rapidly growing body of research examines the ways in which climatic variability influence economic and societal outcomes. This study investigates how weather shocks triggered social distress in British colonial Africa. Further, it intervenes in a long-standing and unsettled debate concerning the effects of agricultural commercialization on the abilities of rural communities to cope with exogenous shocks. We collect qualitative evidence from annual administrative records to explore the mechanisms linking weather extremes to harvest failures and social distress. We also conduct econometric testing on a novel panel dataset of 143 administrative districts across west, south-central and east Africa in the Interwar Era (1920-1939). Our findings are twofold. First, we find robust evidence that rainfall anomalies (both drought and excessive precipitation) are associated with spikes in imprisonment (our proxy for social distress). We argue that the key causal pathway is the loss of agricultural income, which results in higher imprisonment for theft, unrest, debt and tax default. Second, we find that the impact of weather shocks on distress is partially mitigated by the cultivation of export crops. Our findings suggest that, even in the British colonial context, smallholder export crop cultivation led to higher private incomes as well as greater public investment. Our findings speak to a topic of considerable urgency today as the process of global climate change accelerates, generating more severe and unpredictable climatic extremes. An increased understanding and identification of adaptive and mitigating factors, would assist in targeting policy interventions and designing adaptive institutions to support vulnerable rural societies.
    Keywords: Africa; rural livelihoods; economic history; colonialism; social distress; tropical agriculture; agricultural commercialization; environmental history
    JEL: D74 F54 N17 N57 Q17
    Date: 2017–06–01
  15. By: Elisabeth Albertini (IAE Paris - Sorbonne Business School)
    Abstract: A growing number of companies are implementing proactive environmental strategies with the objective of gaining competitive advantage through an enhanced reputation, the reduction of production costs and a first-mover advantage in the green product market. Yet according to the natural-resource-based view, the development and maintenance of unique and valuable environmental capabilities are the central elements allowing companies to gain financial benefit from their proactive environmental strategy. In this context, management control systems can contribute to the development of environmental capabilities by focusing attention on strategic priorities and stimulating dialogue. Through a single case study, and building on Simons' (1995) four levers of control, we propose a conceptual framework of management control levers that show how companies can enhance (1) stakeholder integration capability through the joint use of belief, boundary and diagnostic control systems; (2) shared vision capability through the joint use of the belief and boundary systems; (3) organizational learning capability through the use of interactive control systems and to a lesser extent diagnostic control systems; and (4) continuous innovation capability through the use of interactive control systems, belief systems and to a lesser extent diagnostic control systems.
    Keywords: management control systems,proactive environmental strategy,natural-resource-based view
    Date: 2019
  16. By: Gissela Landa (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Paul Malliet (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Aurélien Saussay (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Frédéric Reynés (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: L'Union européenne (UE) a acquis au cours des deux dernières décennies une position de leader dans la lutte contre le changement climatique. Cependant, malgré les progrès significatifs réalisés en matière de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) au cours de cette période, l'efficacité du pilotage de la politique climatique et énergétique au niveau de l'UE demeure insatisfaisante. Dans cet article, nous nous efforçons d'identifier le rôle que l'UE peut jouer pour faciliter la mise en œuvre de politiques de transition énergétique ambitieuses. Tout d'abord, si la gestion des projets liés à la transition énergétique est généralement mieux adaptée au niveau local ou national, le niveau européen reste le plus approprié pour collecter des fonds ou piloter des infrastructures transnationales de réseaux d'énergie et de transport. Ceci est mis en évidence par une analyse des projets financés par le Fonds européen pour les investissements stratégiques (EFSI). Deuxièmement, au-delà des objectifs au niveau de l'UE, la coordination entre les États membres sur la définition de leurs infrastructures énergétiques est essentielle. Un déploiement réussi des énergies renouvelables nécessite un haut niveau d'intégration pour surmonter les difficultés liées à l'intermittence. Des stratégies opposées peuvent avoir des effets négatifs, ralentir la tendance actuelle des investissements dans les capacités renouvelables et empêcher ainsi l'UE de respecter les engagements déterminés par ses États membres au niveau national (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDC). La coordination entre les politiques énergétiques nationales devrait être assurée au niveau de l'UE, qui pourrait associer plus efficacement les différentes sources de financement, constituer un marché de capacité et même définir une politique commune de la taxe carbone à côté du système d'échange de quotas d'émissions (Emissions Trading System, ETS). Enfin, la conception des politiques d'atténuation du changement climatique devrait mettre davantage l'accent sur les bénéfices commerciaux potentiels que l'UE peut tirer de sa position de leader dans ce domaine. La quasidisparition de l'industrie photovoltaïque européenne face à leurs concurrents chinois devrait faire prendre conscience aux autorités européennes que l'avantage actuel est fragile. Malgré une position significative de leader dans de nombreux domaines de lutte contre le changement climatique, les dividendes économiques dont l'UE pourrait profiter ne sont pas assurés par les politiques actuellement mises en œuvre. Il s'agit notamment d'aller au-delà de la recherche en R&D en consacrant davantage d'efforts à la commercialisation de produits et technologies innovants liés à la transition énergétique.
    Keywords: Transition énergétique; Union européenne; R & D; Politique énergétique; Politique climatique; Budget européen; Taxe carbone
    Date: 2018–12
  17. By: Hideo Konishi (Boston College); Minoru Nakada (Nogaya University); Akihisa Shibata (Kyoto University)
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the effects of a free trade agreement (FTA) with environmental standards between Northern and Southern countries, with explicit considerations for transferring clean technology and enforcing reduced emissions. Southern producers benefit greatly by having access to a Northern market without barriers, while they are reluctant to use new high-cost, clean technology provided by the North. Thus, environmentally conscious Northern countries should design an FTA where Southern countries provide sufficient benefits for the membership while imposing tighter enforcement requirements. Since including too many Southern countries dilutes the benefits of being a member of the FTA, it is in the best interest of the North to limit the number of Southern memberships while requiring strict enforcement of emissions reduction. This may result in unequal treatment among the Southern countries. We provide a quantitative evaluation of FTA policies by using a numerical example.
    Keywords: free trade agreement, technology standard, North-South model, environmental standard
    JEL: F18 Q54 Q55 Q56
    Date: 2018–09–22
  18. By: Sara Pérez Gutiérrez; Andrés Vargas Pérez
    Abstract: Resumen El alto impacto ambiental de la demanda por proteína animal para la alimentación humana hace imperativo que los individuos modifiquen sus patrones de consumo hacia dietas más sostenibles. El uso de etiquetas ambientales en los alimentos puede ser una alternativa para lograr dicho objetivo. A través de un experimento de elección este estudio encuentra que el atributo huella de carbono es relevante a la hora de elegir un plato de almuerzo. Se discute cómo podrían informar estos resultados el diseño de estrategias para inducir decisiones de compra más sostenibles. Palabras clave: etiquetado de los alimentos, provisión de información ambiental, experimento de elección. Clasificación JEL: C93, D12, Q18. Abstract Rising animal-based foods consumption is having major negative effects on the environment. Shifting diets can thus contribute to a sustainable food system. Food labeling is one among several instruments to encourage more sustainable eating. Using a discrete choice experiment, this study founds that giving information about the the carbon foodprint of food have the potential to affect consumers’ choices, making more likely the consumption of a meal with a greater content of plant-based protein. We discuss how this findings could inform policy making. Keyword: food labeling, carboon foodprint, shifting diets, discrete choice experiment. JEL Codes: C93, D12, Q18.
    Date: 2018–12–28
  19. By: Rafik Abdessalam (Université de Lyon, Lumière Lyon 2, COACTIS, EA 4161, 69365 Lyon Cedex 07, France); Patricia Renou-Maissant (Normandie Univ, UNICAEN, CNRS, CREM, F-14000 Caen, France et EconomiX, UMR CNRS 7235, Université de Paris Nanterre, 92001 Nanterre, France); Ferdaous Roussafi (Normandie Univ, UNICAEN, CNRS, CREM, F-14000 Caen, France)
    Abstract: The energy transition towards low-carbon energies is today a dominant paradigm of public policies related to energy. This article aims to propose an inventory of the energy transition in France and more precisely to evaluate the performances of regions in terms of diversification of the energy mix. Multidimensional data analysis methods have been implemented. A typology of French regions relating to the regional development of the renewable energies (RE) in France in 2015 is proposed; it highlights the emergence of five typical profiles of RE development sharply contrasted according to RE sectors and regions. The various statistical models realized underlines the importance of economic factors (economic performance and sector specialization), demographic specificities and geographical characteristics to explain contrasted performances of renewable energy development in French regions. By contrast, environmental and political factors do not discriminate between the five types of RE development.
    Keywords: multidimensional data analysis, regional disparities, Renewable Energies
    JEL: C38 P25 Q48 R11
    Date: 2018–12
  20. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: This study investigates the relevance of government quality in moderating the incidence of environmental degradation on inclusive human development in 44 sub-Saharan African countries for the period 2000-2012. Environmental degradation is measured with CO2 emissions and the governance dynamics include: political stability, voice and accountability, government effectiveness, regulation quality, the rule of law and corruption-control. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. Regulation quality modulates CO2 emissions to exert a net negative effect on inclusive development. Institutional governance (consisting of corruption-control and the rule of law) modulates CO2 emissions to also exert a net negative effect on inclusive human development. Fortunately, the corresponding interactive effects are positive, which indicates that good governance needs to be enhanced to achieve positive net effects. A policy threshold of institutional governance at which institutional governance completely dampens the unfavourable effect of CO2 emissions on inclusive human development is established. Other policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions; Economic development; Africa
    JEL: C52 O38 O40 O55 P37
    Date: 2019–01
  21. By: Asongu, Simplice A; Odhiambo, Nicholas M
    Abstract: This study investigates the relevance of government quality in moderating the incidence of environmental degradation on inclusive human development in 44 sub-Saharan African countries for the period 2000-2012. Environmental degradation is measured with CO2 emissions and the governance dynamics include: political stability, voice and accountability, government effectiveness, regulation quality, the rule of law and corruption-control. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments. Regulation quality modulates CO2 emissions to exert a net negative effect on inclusive development. Institutional governance (consisting of corruption-control and the rule of law) modulates CO2 emissions to also exert a net negative effect on inclusive human development. Fortunately, the corresponding interactive effects are positive, which indicates that good governance needs to be enhanced to achieve positive net effects. A policy threshold of institutional governance at which institutional governance completely dampens the unfavourable effect of CO2 emissions on inclusive human development is established. Other policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions; Economic development; Africa
    Date: 2019–01–11
  22. By: Gregory Casey; Soheil Shayegh; Juan Moreno-Cruz; Martin Bunzl; Oded Galor; Ken Caldeira
    Abstract: "We examine the potential for climate change to impact fertility via adaptations in human behaviour. We start by discussing a wide range of economic channels through which climate change might impact fertility, including sectoral reallocation, the gender wage gap, longevity, and child mortality. Then, we build a quantitative model that combines standard economicdemographic theory with existing estimates of the economic consequences of climate change. In the model, increases in global temperature affect agricultural and non-agricultural sectors differently. Near the equator, where many poor countries are located, climate change has a larger negative effect on agriculture. The resulting scarcity in agricultural goods acts as a force towards higher agricultural prices and wages, leading to a labor reallocation into this sector. Since agriculture makes less use of skilled labor, climate damages decrease the return to acquiring skills, inducing parents to invest less resources in the education of each child and to increase fertility. These patterns are reversed at higher latitudes, suggesting that climate change may exacerbate inequities by reducing fertility and increasing education in richer northern countries, while increasing fertility and reducing education in poorer tropical countries. While the model only examines the role of one specific mechanism, it suggests that climate change could have an impact on fertility, indicating the need for future work on this important topic."
    Date: 2019
  23. By: Bachev, Hrabrin; Koteva, Nina; Mitova, Dilyana; Ivanov, Bojidar; Chopeva, Minka; Toteva, Dessislava; Sarov, Angel; Sokolova, Emilia; Todorova, Kristina; Mitov, Anton; Vanev, Dimitar
    Abstract: This paper assesses the integral, governance, economic, social and environmental sustainability of Bulgarian agriculture. On the base official aggravate (statistical, etc.) and survey data approbation is made of elaborated holistic framework and evaluated sustainability level at different levels - national, sub sector, region, (agro)ecosystems, and farm. Website of the project:
    Keywords: agrarian sustainability, governance, economic, social, environmental aspects, Bulgaria
    JEL: Q1 Q13 Q15 Q5
    Date: 2019–02
  24. By: Asongu, Simplice A; Odhiambo, Nicholas M
    Abstract: This study investigates how increasing economic development affects the green economy in terms of CO2 emissions, using data from 44 countries in the SSA for the period 2000-2012. The Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) is used for the empirical analysis. The following main findings are established. First, relative to CO2 emissions, enhancing economic growth and population growth engenders a U-shaped pattern whereas increasing inclusive human development shows a Kuznets curve. Second, increasing GDP growth beyond 25% of annual growth is unfavorable for a green economy. Third, a population growth rate of above 3.089% (i.e. annual %) has a positive effect of CO2 emissions. Fourth, an inequality-adjusted human development index (IHDI) of above 0.4969 is beneficial for a green economy because it is associated with a reduction in CO2 emissions. The established critical masses have policy relevance because they are situated within the policy ranges of adopted economic development dynamics.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions; Economic development; Africa
    Date: 2019–01–11
  25. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: This study investigates how increasing economic development affects the green economy in terms of CO2 emissions, using data from 44 countries in the SSA for the period 2000-2012. The Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) is used for the empirical analysis. The following main findings are established. First, relative to CO2 emissions, enhancing economic growth and population growth engenders a U-shaped pattern whereas increasing inclusive human development shows a Kuznets curve. Second, increasing GDP growth beyond 25% of annual growth is unfavorable for a green economy. Third, a population growth rate of above 3.089% (i.e. annual %) has a positive effect of CO2 emissions. Fourth, an inequality-adjusted human development index (IHDI) of above 0.4969 is beneficial for a green economy because it is associated with a reduction in CO2 emissions. The established critical masses have policy relevance because they are situated within the policy ranges of adopted economic development dynamics.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions; Economic development; Africa
    JEL: C52 O38 O40 O55 P37
    Date: 2019–01
  26. By: Sasaki, Hiroaki
    Abstract: The purpose of this study is to investigate how the long-run growth rate of per capita output is determined when an economy is subject to non-renewable resource constraints and the population growth is negative by using a theoretical model. From this, we can examine the effect of population decline and the effect of depletion of natural resources on economic growth. Our results show that irrespective of whether the population growth rate is positive or negative, the long-run growth rate of per capita output can be positive depending on conditions. This result suggests that even an economy with non-renewable resources and declining population can obtain sustainable economic growth.
    Keywords: non-renewable resources; declining population; endogenous growth
    JEL: O13 O44 Q32 Q43
    Date: 2019–02–16
  27. By: Roman Mendelevitch; Christian Hauenstein; Franziska Holz
    Abstract: The Trump administration has promised to stop the spiraling down of the U.S. coal industry that has been going on for several years. We discuss the origins of the decline of the U.S. coal industry and new policy interventions by the Trump administration. We find that a further decrease of coal consumption in the U.S. electricity sector must be expected because of the old and inefficient U.S. coal-fired generation fleet. By contrast, we adapt the EIA’s overly optimistic view and analyze three potential support schemes to assess whether under such assumptions they can turn the tide for the U.S. coal industry: i) revoking the Clean Power Plan (CPP); ii) facilitating access to the booming Asian market by developing West Coast coal export terminals; and iii) enhanced support for the Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology to provide a long-term perspective for domestic coal use while mitigating climate change. We investigate the short-term and long-term effects for U.S. coal production using a comprehensive partial equilibrium model of the world steam coal market, COALMOD-World (Holz et al. 2016). Revoking the CPP will stop the downward trend of steam coal consumption in the U.S., but will not lead to a return of U.S. coal production to the levels of the 2000s with more than 900 Mtpa. Even when assuming a continuously strong global coal demand and expanding U.S. coal export capacities, U.S. coal production will not return to its previous production highs. When global steam coal use, including U.S. consumption, is aligned with the 2°C climate target, U.S. steam coal production drops to around 100 Mtpa by 2030 and below 50 Mtpa by 2050, respectively, even if CCTS is available and exports via the U.S. West Coast are possible.
    Keywords: U.S. coal sector, Trump administration, Clean Power Plan, steam coal, coal ports, CCS
    JEL: L72 Q34 Q38 F14
    Date: 2019
  28. By: ALI, Essossinam
    Abstract: This study assesses the impact of climate variability on staple food crops production in the Northern regions of Togo using cereal and climate data over the period of 1972-2013. The linear mixed model and generalized linear mixed model are used. The results indicate that maize is the most vulnerable cereal affected by the inter-seasonal and the intra-seasonal variability of temperature and precipitation compared to sorghum and rice in the study areas. However, encouraging water management in rain-fed agriculture would increase the rice production in the study areas. Policy towards the adoption of new technology to improve maize yields and cope with climatic risks is needed. The investment in rain-fed water management, promoting the use of drought-tolerant seeds and improvement of agro-meteorological information and their integration in farmers’ decision making are needed.
    Keywords: Climate variability, Staple food crops, Northern Togo
    JEL: Q1 Q18
    Date: 2018–05–16
  29. By: Santiago J. Rubio (Department of Economic Analysis and ERI-CES, University of Valencia)
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of adaptation on the stability of an international emission agreement. To address this issue we solve a three-stage coalition formation game where in the first stage countries decide whether or not to sign the agreement. Then, in the second stage, signatories (playing together) and non-signatories (playing individually) select their levels of emissions. Finally, in the third stage, each country decides on its level of adaptation non co-operatively. We solve this game for two models. For both, it is assumed that damages are linear with respect to emissions which guarantee that emissions are strategic complements in the second stage of the game. However, for the first model adaptation reduces the marginal damages of emissions in a multiplicative way whereas for the second model the reduction occurs in an additive way. Our analysis shows that the models yield different predictions in terms of participation. In the first case, we find that the larger the gains of full cooperation, the larger the cooperation. However, in the second case, the unique stable agreement we find consists of three countries regardless of the gains of full cooperation. These results suggest that complementarity can play in favor of cooperation but that it is not a sufficient condition to obtain more participation in an emission agreement. Finally, we would like to point out that our research indicates that the way adaptation reduces damages plays a critical role over the outcome of the coalition formation game.
    Keywords: International Environmental Agreements, Mitigation-Adaptation Game, Strategic Complements
    JEL: D62 F53 H41 Q54
    Date: 2018–08
  30. By: Marius Fabian; Christian Leßmann; Tim Sofke
    Abstract: We analyze the impact of earthquakes on nighttime lights at a sub-national level, i.e. on grids of different size. We argue that existing studies on the impact of natural disasters on economic development have several important limitations, both at the level of the outcome variable – usually national income or growth – as well as on the level of the independent variable, e.g. the timing of an event and the measuring of its intensity. We aim to overcome these limitations by using geophysical event data on earthquakes together with satellite nighttime lights. Using panel fixed effects regressions covering the entire world for the period 1992-2013 we find that earthquakes reduce both light growth rates and light levels significantly. The effects are persistent for approximately 5 years, but we find no long run effects. The effects are strong and robust in a small grid and gets weaker the larger the unit of observation. National institutions and economic conditions are relevant mediating factors.
    Keywords: natural disasters, earthquakes, event data, satellite nighttime lights, luminosity, grid data, institutions, growth, development
    JEL: O44 Q54
    Date: 2019
  31. By: Meredith Fowlie; Edward A. Rubin; Reed Walker
    Abstract: We use state-of-the-art, satellite-based PM2.5 estimates to assess the extent to which the EPA's existing, monitor-based measurements over- or under-estimate true exposure to PM2.5 pollution. Treating satellite-based estimates as truth implies a substantial number of "policy errors"—over-regulating areas that comply with air quality standards and under-regulating other areas that appear to violate standards. We investigate the health implications of these apparent errors and highlight the importance of accounting for prediction error in satellite-based estimates. Uncertainty in "policy errors" increases substantially when we account for these underlying prediction errors.
    JEL: H23 H41 Q50 Q52 Q53
    Date: 2019–02
  32. By: Dirk Schoenmaker
    Abstract: Central banks have already started to look at climate-related risks in the context of financial stability. Should they also take the carbon intensity of assets into account in the context of monetary policy? The guiding principle in the implementation of monetary policy has been ‘market neutrality’, whereby the central bank buys a proportion of the market portfolio of available corporate and bank bonds (in addition to government bonds). But this implies a carbon bias, because capital-intensive companies tend to be more carbon intensive. The author first reviews the legal mandate of the Eurosystem. While the primary objective is price stability, the Treaty on European Union allows the greening of monetary policy as a secondary objective. He proposes a tilting approach to steer or tilt the allocation of the Eurosystem’s assets and collateral towards low-carbon sectors, which would reduce the cost of capital for these sectors relative to high-carbon sectors. This allocation policy must be designed so it does not affect the effective implementation of monetary policy. The working of the tilting approach is calibrated with data on European corporate and bank bonds. We find that a modest tilting approach could reduce carbon emissions in the corporate and bank bond portfolio by 44 per cent and lower the cost of capital of low carbon companies by 4 basis points. Our findings also suggest that such a low carbon allocation can be done without undue interference with the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Price stability, the primary objective, is, and should remain, the priority of the Eurosystem.
    Date: 2019–02
  33. By: Xueqin Zhu; Sjak Smulders; Aart de Zeeuw
    Abstract: Discounting has to take account of ecosystem services in consumption and production. Previous literature focuses on the first aspect and shows the importance of the relative price effect, for given growth rates of consumption and ecosystem services. This paper focuses on intermediate ecosystem services in production and shows that for limited substitutability and a low growth rate of these ecosystem services, the growth rate of consumption, and thus the discount rate, declines towards a low value. Using a Ramsey optimal-growth framework, the paper distinguishes three cases. If ecosystem services can be easily substituted, then the discount rate converges to the usual value in the long term. Secondly, if ecosystem services can be easily substituted in production but not in consumption, the relative price effect is important. Finally, and most interestingly, if ecosystem services cannot be easily substituted in production, the discount rate declines towards a low value and the relative price effect is less important. Another part of the previous literature has shown that a declining discount rate is the result of introducing several forms of uncertainty, but this paper reaches that conclusion from an endogenous effect on the growth rate of the economy.
    Keywords: discount rate, ecosystem services, consumption value, production value, growth rate, Ramsey optimal balanced growth
    JEL: C61 D90 E43 O44 Q57
    Date: 2019
  34. By: Eike Blume-Werry (Energy Economics Group (EEG), Institute of Energy Systems and Electric Drives TU Wien and Axpo Holding AG); Thomas Faber (Axpo Holding AG); Lion Hirth (Neon Neue Energieökonomik GmbH (Neon) and Hertie School of Governance); Claus Huber (Axpo Holding AG); Martin Everts (Axpo Holding AG)
    Abstract: Upon discussion of price setting on electricity wholesale markets, many refer to the so-called merit order model. Conventional wisdom holds that during most hours of the year, coal- or natural gas-fired power plants set the price on European markets. In this context, this paper analyses price setting on European power markets. We use a fundamental electricity market model of interconnected bidding zones to determine hourly price-setting technologies for the year 2020. We find a price-setting pattern that is more complex and nuanced than the conventional wisdom suggests: across all researched countries, coal- and natural gas-fired power plants set the price for only 40 per cent of all hours. Other power generation technologies such as wind, biomass, hydro and nuclear power plants as well as lignite-fired plants set the price during the rest of the year. On some markets, the price setting is characterised by a high level of interconnectivity and thus foreign influence – as illustrated by the example of the Netherlands. During some 75 per cent of hours, foreign power plants set the price on the Dutch market, whilst price setting in other more isolated markets is barely affected by foreign markets. Hence, applying the price setting analysis to the proposed Dutch carbon price floor, we show that different carbon prices have little effect on the technological structure of the price-setting units. In this respect, the impacts of the unilateral initiative are limited. There are, however, considerable changes to be observed in wholesale power prices, import/export balances as well as production volumes and subsequent CO2 outputs of lignite-, coal- and gas-fired power plants.
    Keywords: Price Setting, Electricity Markets, Merit Order, Generation Technologies, Carbon Price Floor
    JEL: O13 Q41
    Date: 2018–12
  35. By: Weekes, Colleen; Bello, Omar D.
    Abstract: This set of policy briefs has the objective of profiling disaster risk management (DRM) policies in five selected member States of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee: Barbados, Guyana, Saint Lucia, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. The present publication is the second that ECLAC has released on the mainstreaming of DRM strategies on this topic area. In 2017, a similar document was published for the following countries: The Bahamas, Belize, Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica. It also aims at analysing these policies and their interactions with broader development issues and instruments such as national development plans and climate change adaptation strategies.
    Date: 2019–02–18
  36. By: Valentin Bertsch (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), Dublin, Trinity College Dublin, German Aerospace Center (DLR), University of Stuttgart); Valeria Di Cosmo (Fondazione Enrico Mattei, Milan, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) Dublin)
    Abstract: The European Union has set ambitious targets for emission reduction and the penetration of renewable energy, including the electricity generation sector as one of the major emitters of CO2. After a period of subsidy-driven investments, the costs of renewables decreased strongly making investments more attractive. Since European countries differ strongly in terms of natural resources, we analyse the profitability of wind onshore and offshore and solar PV across Europe to determine where it is optimal to invest in the future and to understand which factors drive the profitability of the investments. We use a power systems model to simulate the whole European electricity market in 2030. Using the renewable revenues determined by the model, we calculate the internal rate of return to analyse how profitable each technology is in each country. We find that investments in the considered technologies are not homogeneously profitable across Europe. This suggests that cooperation between European countries can be expected to achieve the overall targets at lower costs than nationally-driven approaches. We also find that in many countries, wind onshore and solar PV are profitable by 2030 in absence of any financial support. Wind offshore does not seem to be profitable without financial support.
    Keywords: Renewable Energy Targets, Renewable Electricity Generation, RES-E Target, EU Electricity Market, Profitability
    JEL: Q4 Q42
    Date: 2018–08
  37. By: Gissela Landa (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Paul Malliet (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Frédéric Reynés (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Aurélien Saussay (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: To a large extent, environmental macroeconomics is developing outside of the theoretical debates taking place in other fields of research in applied macroeconomics. This is evidenced by the low representation of environmental issues in mainstream economics journals and in advanced macroeconomics textbooks. While the environment has not up to now been considered as a subject in itself for advancing knowledge in macroeconomics, since the 1990s it has at least been an important topic for applying macroeconomic models. These models have been used in particular to analyse and quantify the economic effects of the transition to a sustainable system of production and consumption. We propose to shed light on the state of the art in applied environmental macroeconomics. More specifically, we will endeavour to identify the specific features of this area of research that explain the theoretical and empirical choices made.
    Keywords: Environmental macroeconomics; Macroeconomic modelling; IAM; CGE
    Date: 2018–09
  38. By: Wang, Rui (Tulane University); Chen, Xi (Yale University); Li, Xun (Wuhan University)
    Abstract: Flint changed its public water source in 2014, causing severe water contamination. We estimate the effect of in utero exposure to polluted water on health at birth using the recent Flint water crisis as a natural experiment. Matching vital statistics birth records with various sources of data, we employ a Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach as well as a Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to identify its causal impact on key birth outcomes. Our results suggest that the crisis modestly increased the rate of low birth weight (LBW) by 1.1-1.8 percentage points but had little effect on length of gestation or prematurity. The effects are larger for black or less educated mothers. Children born to disadvantaged mothers demonstrated 1.2-2.0 percentage points (or 10.4-17.4 percent) and 0.2- 0.6 percentage points (or 9.5-28.6 percent) rise in LBW and VLBW, respectively. We find little evidence that the Crisis increased fetal death, suggesting that the scarring effect in utero may dominate the channel of mortality selection. These results survive a rich set of placebo and falsification tests. Finally, our results lend support to three mechanisms at work linking water contamination and birth outcomes, i.e. biological effect, maternal stress, and avoidance actions.
    Keywords: water pollution, lead exposure, Flint infants, low birth weight
    JEL: I14 I18 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2019–01
  39. By: Victor Court (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pierre-André Jouvet (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Frédéric Lantz (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)
    Abstract: This article builds a bridge between the endogenous economic growth theory, the biophysical economics perspective, and the past and future transitions between renewable and nonrenewable energy forms that economies have had to and will have to accomplish. We provide an endogenous economic growth model subject to the physical limits of the real world, meaning that nonrenewable and renewable energy production costs have functional forms that respect physical constraints, and that technological level is precisely defned as the effciency of primary-to-useful exergy conversion. The model supports the evidence that historical productions of renewable and nonrenewable energy have greatly infuenced past economic growth. Indeed, from an initial almost-renewable-only supply regime we reproduce the increasing reliance on nonrenewable energy that has allowed the global economy to leave the state of economic stagnation that had characterized the largest part of its history. We then study the inevitable transition towards complete renewable energy that human will have to deal with in a not-too-far future since nonrenewable energy comes by defnition from a fnite stock. Through simulation we study in which circumstances this transition could have negative impacts on economic growth (peak followed by degrowth phase). We show that the implementation of a carbon price can partially smooth such unfortunate dynamics, depending on the ways of use of the income generated by the carbon pricing.
    Keywords: Energy transition,Exergy,Technological change,Endogenous economic growth
    Date: 2018–01
  40. By: Camarinhas, Catarina
    Abstract: In light of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, this policy brief provides an account of the current status of Caribbean youth policies and considers how youth mainstreaming concepts can be applied constructively to strengthen sustainable development planning and policies in the subregion. This document highlights the findings of an ECLAC assessment of National Youth Policies in the Caribbean. This assessment pointed to the need to secure the means of implementation as a fundamental key driver to achieve the 2030 Agenda. This includes support for the implementation of relevant strategies to promote young people’s potential as agents of change and active citizens for peace and development. Different strategies are required to realise the demographic dividend in the subregion. These include strategies to empower Caribbean youth to achieve their aspirations, improve their capacities, and foster the human rights of all youth, which will ultimately contribute to more inclusive, resilient and sustainable communities and nations.
    Date: 2019–02
  41. By: Daube, Carl Heinz; Krivenkov, Vladislav
    Abstract: Underpricing of corporate bond offerings result in excess returns for investors (new issue premia) but lead to higher costs for the issuer. This paper analyses the new issue premia of 1.556 Euro denominated fixed coupon corporate bonds and finds a systematic underpricing of new issued bonds. The results are evaluated from a perspective of CFOs whether opportunities for saving funding costs exist.
    Keywords: Neu-Emissionprämien,CFO,Handlungsoptionen für CFO,Unternehmensfinanzierung
    JEL: G31
    Date: 2019
  42. By: Stephan B. Bruns; Alessio Moneta; David I. Stern
    Abstract: The size of the economy-wide rebound effect is crucial for estimating the contribution that energy efficiency improvements can make to reducing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. We provide the first empirical general equilibrium estimate of the economy-wide rebound effect. We use a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model that is estimated using search methods developed in machine learning. We apply the SVAR to U.S. monthly and quarterly data, finding that after four years rebound is around 100%. This implies that policies to encourage cost-reducing energy efficiency innovation are not likely to significantly reduce energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.
    JEL: C32 Q43
    Date: 2019–02
  43. By: Bosetti, Valentina; Heugues, Melanie; Tavoni, Alessandro
    Abstract: We explore the prospects of cooperation in a threshold public bad game. The experiment’s setup allows us to investigate the issue of effort coordination between signatories and non-signatories to a climate agreement under the threat of a catastrophe. Motivated actors may signal willingness to lead by committing a share of investments to a ‘clean’ but less remunerative project. The game is parametrized such that the externality cannot be fully internalized by the coalition, so that some effort on the part of the second movers is required if the catastrophic losses are to be avoided. We manipulate both the relative returns of two investments and the extent to which the gains from leadership diffuse to second movers. We find that the likelihood of reaching a sizeable coalition of early investors in the clean technology is higher when the benefits are appropriated by the coalition. Conversely, spillovers can entice second movers’ adoption.
    JEL: C70 C92 Q50
    Date: 2017–04–01
  44. By: Adeline Gueret (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE)); Paul Malliet (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Aurélien Saussay (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Xavier Timbeau (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: Le processus de coopération internationale pour lutter contre le dérèglement climatique a essuyé plusieurs revers depuis la signature des Accords de Paris en 2015 et la question des responsabilités respectives n'est toujours pas tranchée. La problématique sous-jacente, à savoir comment partager les efforts pour atteindre la neutralité carbone, est toujours en suspens et l'approche par les contributions déterminées au niveau national (INDCs en anglais) n'en a pas encore permis la résolution. Ces dernières années, le concept de budget carbone s'est imposé comme l'un des plus efficaces pour objectiver la contrainte climatique. Il repose sur l'idée que seule une quantité limitée d'émissions de carbone peut être relâchée dans l'atmosphère si l'on veut limiter la hausse de la température mondiale à +2°C par rapport à l'ère préindustrielle, et dans la mesure du possible à +1,5°C, comme décidé lors des Accords de Paris. En comparant ce à quoi notre budget carbone nous engage à ce qui est fait pour réduire notre empreinte carbone, nous calculons une distance à cette contrainte climatique. Exprimée en euros, cette distance, dénommée dette climatique, évalue ce que nous ne payons pas en reportant la mise en œuvre de mesures d'atténuation. En utilisant plusieurs règles de répartition de l'effort, et reconnaissant qu'elles ne font pas encore l'objet de négociations ni de consensus sur comment y parvenir, nous calculons cette dette climatique pour les principaux pays de l'UE. Trois recommandations de politiques publiques émergent de ce travail. Premièrement, il ne reste plus que quelques années avant que les principaux pays européens aient épuisé leur budget carbone compatible avec la cible de +2°C. Concernant celle de +1,5°C, la majorité des pays de l'UE ont déjà épuisé ce budget et sont donc en situation de déficit climatique excessif. De plus, la dette climatique apparaît comme l'un des enjeux majeurs des décennies à venir dans la mesure où elle représente déjà plus de 50 % du PIB de l'UE si l'on prétend rester sous la barre des 2°C de hausse de température (120 % pour rester sous celle des +1,5°C). Enfin, les résultats de notre étude sont sujets à de nombreuses hypothèses, à la fois éthiques et techniques, qui appellent à un approfondissement de cette évaluation, primordiale pour les politiques environnementales, de la part des institutions publiques et de centres de recherche indépendants.
    Keywords: Climat; Dette climatique; Accords de Paris
    Date: 2018–12
  45. By: Santos, Maria Emma
    Abstract: This report offers a review of 14 non-monetary indicators of poverty to monitor progress towards the first Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) “End poverty in all its forms everywhere”. The reviewed indicators are housing materials, overcrowding, housing tenure, durable goods, access to safe water and improved sanitation, access to clean sources of energy, garbage collection and nearby sources of contamination, (public) transportation, child attendance to school and adult schooling, employment, social security and access to health care.
    Date: 2019–02–13
  46. By: M Rakotovao; J. Gobert (LEESU - Laboratoire Eau Environnement et Systèmes Urbains - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); S Brullot
    Abstract: A rural biorefinery is a facility set up in a territory which transforms local biomass into a wide range of products and energy. Contrary to the port biorefineries where raw materials are mainly imported, their sourcing is carried out on a more restricted area or even on a local area. Indeed, they are characterized by the importance of their integration process as they maintain more or less close links with the territory, especially with the farming community. In addition to being a source of income for farmers, these biorefineries create new opportunities for non-farm sectors. Recently, research has been conducted to assess biorefinery sustainability. However, the balance between the three pillars of sustainable development is not established as studies focus more on environmental assessments to the detriment of socioeconomic dimensions. In addition, socioeconomic assessments of rural agro-industrial projects are often limited to economic indices, which are not sufficient to evaluate the fallout on the territory. Then, the purpose of this paper is to propose a socioeconomic evaluation grid to measure the territorial embeddedness of rural biorefineries.
    Keywords: Rural biorefinery,Socio-economic impact,Assessment,territorial embeddedness
    Date: 2018
  47. By: Rafael González-Val (Universidad de Zaragoza and Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB)); Fernando Pueyo (Universidad de Zaragoza)
    Abstract: In this paper we discuss the relationship between economic growth and natural resources at a global level, taking into account geography. With this aim, our model integrates elements of the theories of endogenous growth, natural resources and new economic geography. We find that an increase in the world growth rate can lead to a higher depletion of the natural resources following an increase in the world demand due to expansion in population. However, the consideration of geography and growth mechanisms make the relationship between growth and natural resources more complex, and can even lead to the opposite conclusion when the forces behind growth are different from world demand. Indeed, either a reduction in transport costs or an increase in R&D productivity appears to be able to generate a faster growth compatible with a lower depletion of natural resources.
    Keywords: Industrial Location, Endogenous Growth, Renewable Resource, Geography
    JEL: F43 O30 Q20 R12
    Date: 2018–08
  48. By: Corrêa, Rogerio de O.
    Abstract: Este artigo tratará das barreiras regulatórias, conforme definidas no Anexo I do Acordo sobre Barreiras Técnicas da Organização Mundial do Comércio e também sobre as Normas Voluntárias de Sustentabilidade. Procurou-se estabelecer um vínculo entre os dois temas, iniciando-se a análise, nas negociações sobre o sistema internacional de comércio pós Segunda Guerra, passando pelas discussões sobre a definição de normas técnicas, sobre organismo internacional de normalização e sobre as questões associadas à sustentabilidade nos Objetivos do Milênio de 2000 e nos Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável consolidados em 2015 após aprovação da Agenda 2030.
    Date: 2019–01
  49. By: Mateus Dias; Rudi Rocha; Rodrigo R. Soares
    Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of glyphosate use in agriculture on birth outcomes of human populations in surrounding areas. Glyphosate is the most widely used herbicide in the world. Still, despite ongoing controversy, little is known about its effects on human populations at large. Our empirical strategy relies on the fact that glyphosate is strongly complementary to the use of genetically modified seeds in soybean production. We use an instrument based on the gains in productivity from adoption of genetically modified soybeans and look at externalities across municipalities sharing the same water resources. We detect negative and statistically significant effects of glyphosate use on birth outcomes. Our results indicate externality effects of glyphosate use on populations distant from the original locations of use, but receiving water from these locations.
    Keywords: Glyphosate, herbicides, birth outcomes, infant mortality, water, externalities.
    JEL: I18 Q53 Q15 O33
    Date: 2019–02–14

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