nep-env New Economics Papers
on Environmental Economics
Issue of 2017‒12‒18
nineteen papers chosen by
Francisco S. Ramos
Universidade Federal de Pernambuco

  1. Impact of the First-Time Car Buyer Program on the Environmental Cost of Air Pollution in Bangkok By Attavanich, Witsanu
  2. The Marginal Product of Climate By Tatyana Deryugina; Solomon Hsiang
  3. Intergenerational equity under catastrophic climate change By Aurélie Méjean; Antonin Pottier; Stéphane Zuber; Marc Fleurbaey
  4. A replication of Pindyck’s willingness to pay: on the sacrifice needed to obtain results By Luca Gerotto; Paolo Pellizzari
  5. Do parents leave a smaller carbon footprint? By Jonas Nordström; Jason F. Shogren; Linda Thunström
  6. Renewable energy consumption and unemployment in South Africa By Moyo, Clement; Dingela, Siyasanga; Kolisi, Nwabisa; Khobai, Hlalefang; Anyikwa, Izunna
  7. Macroeconomic implications of switching to process-emission-free iron and steel production in Europe By Jakob Mayer; Gabriel Bachner; Karl W. Steininger
  8. Forecasting of a Hierarchical Functional Time Series on Example of Macromodel for Day and Night Air Pollution in Silesia Region: A Critical Overview By Daniel Kosiorowski; Dominik Mielczarek; Jerzy. P. Rydlewski
  9. Climatic variation as a determinant of rural-to-rural migration destination choice: Evidence from Tanzania By Zaneta Kubik
  10. El gran impulso ambiental en el sector de la energía By Arroyo, Andrés
  11. Environmental, Social, and Governance Criteria: Why Investors are Paying Attention By Ravi Jagannathan; Ashwin Ravikumar; Marco Sammon
  12. Nudging with heterogeneity in terms of environmental sensitivity : a public goods experiment in networks. By Benjamin Ouvrard; Anne Stenger
  13. 2018 facilitative dialogue: Identifying options for outputs and outcomes, and key questions for modalities By Manasvini Vaidyula; Jane Ellis
  14. Le commun comme mode de production. Introduction By Carlo Vercellone; Francesco Brancaccio; Giuliani Alfonso
  15. Accounting for mitigation targets in Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement By Christina Hood; Carly Soo
  16. Probabilistic Forecasting of Thunderstorms in the Eastern Alps By Thorsten Simon; Peter Fabsic; Georg J. Mayr; Nikolaus Umlauf; Achim Zeileis
  17. Enhancing mitigation and finance reporting: Building on current experience to meet the Paris Agreement requirements By Lola Vallejo; Sara Moarif
  18. Natural Disasters and Growth: The Role of Foreign Aid and Disaster Insurance By Rodolfo Manuelli
  19. Avances en materia de energías sostenibles en América Latina y el Caribe: resultados del Marco de Seguimiento Mundial, informe de 2017 By Coviello, Manlio; Ruchansky, Beno

  1. By: Attavanich, Witsanu
    Abstract: Despite facing with the air pollution caused by traffic congestion ranked top ten in the world, the Thai government launched a tax refund policy for first time car buyers between 16 September 2011 and 31 December 2012 aiming to give an opportunity to low-to-middle income people to own their first car with discounted price and stimulate economic growth. Although past studies evaluated the impacts of the program on several aspects, the environment aspect has been ignored. The objective of this study is therefore to evaluate the impact of the first-time car buyer program on environmental cost of air pollution in Bangkok using hourly air pollution records from monitoring stations for five major pollutants and the happiness data. The article finds that the program increased the levels of air pollution. Using the estimated willingness to pay for a unit reduction of each pollutant, this study reveals that the value of total environmental cost generated from the program is approximately equal to $6.173 billion dollars annually.
    Keywords: First-Time Car Buyer Program; Environmental Cost; Air Pollution; Bangkok; Subjective Well-Being; Interrupted Time Series; Program Evaluation
    JEL: Q51 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2017–04–17
  2. By: Tatyana Deryugina; Solomon Hsiang
    Abstract: We develop an empirical approach to value changes to a climate in terms of total market output given optimal factor allocations in general equilibrium. Our approach accounts for unobservable heterogeneity across locations as well as the costs and benefits of adaptation in climates of arbitrary dimension. Importantly, we demonstrate that the Envelope Theorem implies the marginal product of a long-run climate can be exactly identified using only idiosyncratic weather variation. We apply this method to the temperature climate of the modern United States and find that, despite evidence that populations adapt, the marginal product of temperature has remained unchanged during 1970-2010, with high temperatures having low net value. Integrating marginal products recovers a value function for temperature, describing the causal effect of non-marginal climate changes net of adaptive re-optimization. We use this value function to consider the influence of temperature in the current cross-section and a future climate change scenario.
    JEL: E23 O4 Q5 R13
    Date: 2017–11
  3. By: Aurélie Méjean (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Antonin Pottier (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphane Zuber (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Marc Fleurbaey (Princeton University)
    Abstract: Climate change raises the issue of intergenerational equity. As climate change threatens irreversible and dangerous impacts, possibly leading to extinction, the most relevant trade-off may not be between present and future consumption, but between present consumption and the mere existence of future generations. To investigate this trade-off, we build an integrated assessment model that explicity accounts for the risk of extinction of future generations. We compare different climate policies, which change the probability of catastrophic outcomes yielding an early extinction, within the class of variable population utilitarian social welfare functions. We show that the risk of extinction is the main driver of the preferred policy over climate damages. We analyze the role of inequality aversion and population ethics. Usually a preference for large populations and a low inequality aversion favour the most ambitious climate policy, although there are cases where the effect of inequality aversion is reversed.
    Keywords: Climate change,catastrophic risk,Equity,Population,Climate-economy model
    Date: 2017–09
  4. By: Luca Gerotto (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Paolo Pellizzari (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari)
    Abstract: We present a verification, an extension and a reanalysis of “Uncertain outcomes and climate change policy”, R. Pindyck, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2012. As far as verification is concerned, we are able to reproduce the results provided in Pindyck’s work in many cases and convincingly confirm the quality of the work. Some discrepancies are present, they are due to rounding or related to specific sets of parametric values and do not change the economic interpretation or significance of the results. The re-estimation of the model with more recent data on climate change made available in 2014 shows that temperature increments are now deemed to be higher in mean but less dispersed. As a consequence, the willingness to pay doesn’t vary much with respect to the original paper. We also modify the functional form describing the impact of temperature increase on the growth rate of consumption and obtain much bigger and potentially problematic increments of the willingness to pay. Finally, the paper demonstrates that the numerical results are sensitive to a variety of technical settings used in the computations and suggests that great care is needed in obtaining estimates and employing results in policy discussions.
    Keywords: Replication, environmental policy, climate change, economic impact, willingness to pay
    JEL: D81 Q51 O44
    Date: 2017
  5. By: Jonas Nordström (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Jason F. Shogren (Department of Economics, University of Wyoming); Linda Thunström (Department of Economics, University of Wyoming)
    Abstract: While becoming a parent is transformational as one focuses more on the future, the time constraints are more binding right now. Using a unique data set that allows us to compare CO2 emissions from Swedish two-adult households with and without children, we find becoming a Swedish parent causes a person to leave a larger carbon footprint—due to changes in transportation patterns and food consumption choices.
    Keywords: Children, parent, CO2 emissions, sustainable consumption, time constraints, food, transportation
    JEL: D10 D90 Q54
    Date: 2017–12
  6. By: Moyo, Clement; Dingela, Siyasanga; Kolisi, Nwabisa; Khobai, Hlalefang; Anyikwa, Izunna
    Abstract: The importance of renewable energy consumption has grown to a large extent over the recent years. The benefits of renewable energy consumption ranging from improved environmental quality to higher economic growth are well documented. However, the impact of renewable energy consumption on unemployment has received relatively less attention. This study examines the relationship between renewable energy consumption and unemployment in South Africa over the period 1990-2014. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed to test the long-run and short-run impacts of renewable energy consumption on unemployment. The results reveal that renewable energy consumption has a negative and significant effect on unemployment in the long-run. However, in the short-run the variables have an insignificant relationship. The study therefore advocates for an increase in the production and consumption of renewable energy in order to boost employment levels.
    Keywords: Renewable energy consumption, unemployment, ARDL, South Africa
    JEL: C50 Q20
    Date: 2017–12–06
  7. By: Jakob Mayer (University of Graz, Austria); Gabriel Bachner (University of Graz, Austria); Karl W. Steininger (University of Graz, Austria)
    Abstract: Options to significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions in line with long-term political targets include switches in production technologies to those free of industrial process emissions. Exemplifying this transition, we analyse such a switch of the European iron and steel industry and its sectoral, macroeconomic and social implications. We employ a recursive-dynamic multi-region multi-sector computable general equilibrium approach in order to cover feedback effects originating from the integration of European sectors in a globally embedded context. Against the backdrop of a globally implemented CO2 price trajectory, we investigate how the range of macroeconomic implications depends on (i) the timing of the switch (either starting early in 2020 or late in 2035) and (ii) the investment and operating cost of two promising low-carbon technologies. We distinguish between high-cost and low-cost technological specifications, though both face cost disadvantages relative to conventional iron and steel production for current intermediate inputs and primary factors. An early implementation of a `high-cost' technological alternative further reduces long-term GDP in 2050 among EU regions (-2.3% to -0.5% as compared to -1.4% to -0.3% for a late implementation starting in 2035). By contrast, GDP implications in 2050 seem to be unconstrained by early or late implementation of a `low-cost' technology (regional range of -0.3% to 0.9% for both). However, welfare is reduced, particularly during the initial implementation phase since additional investment to build up new facilities reduces output available for other consumption needs. This `build-up' might represent a barrier to such transitions, as the generation to decide on implementation and potentially bearing (macro)economic costs might not be the generation benefitting from it.
    Keywords: Iron and Steel; Process Emissions; Mitigation; CGE
    JEL: Q54 D58 O3 L61
    Date: 2017–12
  8. By: Daniel Kosiorowski; Dominik Mielczarek; Jerzy. P. Rydlewski
    Abstract: In economics we often face a system, which intrinsically imposes a structure of hierarchy of its components, i.e., in modelling trade accounts related to foreign exchange or in optimization of regional air protection policy. A problem of reconciliation of forecasts obtained on different levels of hierarchy has been addressed in the statistical and econometric literature for many times and concerns bringing together forecasts obtained independently at different levels of hierarchy. This paper deals with this issue in case of a hierarchical functional time series. We present and critically discuss a state of art and indicate opportunities of an application of these methods to a certain environment protection problem. We critically compare the best predictor known from the literature with our own original proposal. Within the paper we study a macromodel describing a day and night air pollution in Silesia region divided into five subregions.
    Date: 2017–11
  9. By: Zaneta Kubik (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper attempts to establish if climate acts as the determinant of destination choice in case of rural-to-rural migration. In the context of climate change where the link between climate and rural income has been well established, it is argued that migrants who move within rural areas choose destinations with more favourable climate conditions allowing for higher incomes. Employing the alternative-specific conditional logit model, this paper shows that such indirect effect of climate on migration destination choice is non-negligible, since one per cent increase in the expected income differentials between origin and destination, attributable to climate, increases the probability of choosing a given destination by at least nine percentage points. On the other hand, distance acts as a constraint for migration, in particular for the poorest individuals who might be inhibited from reaping full benefits of mobility.
    Keywords: climate change,regional migration,rural economies,agriculture,regional economics
    Date: 2017–08
  10. By: Arroyo, Andrés
    Abstract: Para América Latina y el Caribe su tránsito hacia el cambio estructural progresivo y de neutralidad carbónica, implica la necesidad presente de diversificar y complementar las actuales matrices energéticas dado el requerimiento climático de reducir la producción de hidrocarburos a mediano plazo. En este sentido la producción sostenible de petróleo y gas natural debiera darse dentro de buenas prácticas y en aplicación de principios de precaución, prevención, mitigación y remediación. El gran impulso ambiental en el sector de la energía ambiental así como de transparencia y participación social en alianzas capaces de adecuarse a la denominada mayor disrupción histórica del mercado petrolero. En este estudio se analizan, entre otros, los compromisos de reducción de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero fruto del Acuerdo de París del año 2015 y los desafíos que enfrentan los países y el sector de la energía a nivel global y regional; se aborda el alcance del escenario de sostenibilidad energética y cómo algunas políticas y tecnologías pueden ayudar a encaminarse a una senda acorde a los desafíos climáticos; se analiza la huella ambiental del sector y cómo las regulaciones ambientales de la Argentina, el Brasil, Colombia, Ecuador y México son implementadas dentro las políticas corporativas y de sostenibilidad de las empresas estatales de hidrocarburos.
    Date: 2017–11
  11. By: Ravi Jagannathan; Ashwin Ravikumar; Marco Sammon
    Abstract: We find that money managers could reduce portfolio risk by incorporating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria into their investment process. ESG-related issues can cause sudden regulatory changes and shifts in consumer tastes, resulting in large asset price swings which leave investors limited time to react. By incorporating ESG criteria in their investment strategy, money managers can tilt their holdings towards firms which are well prepared to deal with these changes, thereby managing exposure to these rare but potentially large risks.
    JEL: G0 G12 H23 Q4 Q5
    Date: 2017–11
  12. By: Benjamin Ouvrard; Anne Stenger
    Abstract: We propose an experiment to test whether the reaction to a nudge implemented in a network depends on the network structure and on the sensitivity of individuals to the environment. After having elicited the sensitivity of subjects to environmental matters, the subjects played a public goods game in a network. The first ten periods served as a baseline. A nudge (announcement of the socially optimal level of investment) was then implemented both under complete information (the content of the nudge takes individuals’ position into account) and under incomplete information (the nudge cannot rely on individuals’ positions). Nudge implementation induces a higher coordination on the social optimum in the circle network for the most sensitive subjects. In the star network, the targeted nudge induces a decrease in the level of investments for the least sensitive subjects. Thus, nudge implementation should target specific individuals in specific network structures.
    Keywords: environmental sensitivity; inequity aversion; networks; nudge; public goods experiment.
    JEL: C72 C91 H41 Q50
    Date: 2017
  13. By: Manasvini Vaidyula (OECD); Jane Ellis (OECD)
    Abstract: Discussions relating to the 2018 Facilitative Dialogue (FD2018), mandated under the Paris Agreement, are on-going. These discussions are on the scope, inputs, and modalities of the FD2018 as well as any outputs or outcomes from the FD2018. While the mandate of the FD2018 does not explicitly call for outputs or outcomes, identifying outcomes and outputs ex ante could be useful in focusing discussions and inputs to the facilitative dialogue, as well as in shaping its modalities. The objective of this paper is to highlight the implications of agreeing and identifying specific outputs and outcomes ex ante, and exploring what type of outputs and outcomes would best serve the interests of the FD2018. This document also identifies key questions that could guide decision-making on what modalities would be appropriate for the FD2018; however, identification of options for specific modalities of FD2018 are out of the scope of this paper.
    Keywords: 2018 facilitative dialogue, climate, modalities, outcomes, outputs, UNFCCC
    JEL: F53 Q54 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2017–11–03
  14. By: Carlo Vercellone (CEMTI - Centre d'études sur les médias, les technologies et l'internationalisation - UP8 - Université Paris 8, Vincennes-Saint-Denis); Francesco Brancaccio (CEMTI - Centre d'études sur les médias, les technologies et l'internationalisation - UP8 - Université Paris 8, Vincennes-Saint-Denis); Giuliani Alfonso (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: What is the common? What are its foundations? Is it a set of well-defined resources – so called common goods – or a generic principle governing the social organisation of production? These questions need to be asked because the debate on the Common is as rich as it is confusing. On the one hand, notions such as Common, in the singular, commons, common goods, common property, common-pool resources, etc, are at times used as synonymous, at others in contradiction, lacking a precise definition. On the other hand, it is easy to forget that the use of these terms often conceals highly differentiated approaches not only to theory, but also to the political role the Common might play in a project of social transformation. The purpose of this book is to contribute to clarify these questions through a multidisciplinary approach that combines theory and history. The aim is twofold. The first is to provide the reader with a guide to a critical analysis of the main economic and legal theories of common goods. Particular attention will be given to the input and limits of Elinor Ostrom’s contribution and to the debate on the so-called tragedy of the commons. This survey of the literature serves the purpose of showing what the Common is not, or, at least, what it should not be reduced to. The second aim is to put forward an approach that is alternative to that of political economy. In this framework, the Common is theorised as an actual “mode of production”.
    Abstract: Che cosa è il Comune? Quali sono i suoi fondamenti? Si tratta di un insieme di risorse ben delimitate - i cosiddetti beni comuni – o, invece, di un principio generale d’organizzazione sociale della produzione? La necessità di ripartire da tali interrogativi nasce dalla constatazione della ricchezza, ma anche di una certa confusione che caratterizza il dibattito sul Comune. Da un lato, nozioni come Comune al singolare, commons, beni comuni, proprietà comune, common-pool resources, ecc., sono utilizzate talvolta come sinonimi, talvolta opposte le une alle altre, senza darne una definizione precisa. Dall’altro, si tende spesso a dimenticare come dietro l’uso di questi termini si celino approcci molto differenti, sia sul piano teorico, sia su quello del ruolo politico che il Comune potrebbe svolgere in un progetto di trasformazione sociale. Il proposito di questo saggio è di contribuire a far chiarezza su tali questioni attraverso un approccio multidisciplinare che combina teoria e storia. L’obiettivo è duplice. Il primo è di fornire al lettore una guida pedagogica per un’analisi critica delle principali teorie economiche e giuridiche dei beni comuni. Un’attenzione particolare sarà data agli apporti e ai limiti del contributo di Elinor Ostrom e al dibattito sulla cosiddetta tragedia dei beni comuni. Questa rassegna della letteratura ci permetterà anche di mostrare ciò che il Comune non è o, perlomeno, ciò a cui non deve essere ridotto. Il secondo è di proporre un approccio alternativo a quello dell’economia politica. In questo quadro, il Comune è pensato come un vero e proprio “modo di produzione”, portatore di un’alternativa sia all’egemonia della logica burocratica-amministrativa dello Stato, sia a quella dell'economia capitalistica di mercato, in quanto principio di coordinazione della produzione e degli scambi. Il libro fornisce numerose illustrazioni delle pratiche che incarnano questa potenzialità nei settori più svariati dell’economia e della società. Formula inoltre diverse proposte per un’agenda che permetta di favorire lo sviluppo e l’autonomia del “Comune come modo di produzione”.
    Keywords: commmons, Common as mode of production, enclosures, Elinor Ostrom, Karl Marx
    Date: 2017–09–15
  15. By: Christina Hood (IEA); Carly Soo (OECD)
    Abstract: Accounting for Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement is needed to allow Parties to track individual progress towards their own mitigation-related NDC targets, understand others’ NDC targets and their progress toward them, and assess collective progress towards the long-term mitigation goal. This paper aims to assist Parties and stakeholders in framing thinking around the nature of accounting for mitigation targets given the diversity of target types in NDCs, and also to discuss how accounting guidance could be applied at various stages in the NDC cycle. It provides a summary and unpacking of the key accounting provisions under the Paris Agreement and Decision text, discusses the implications of the range of NDC target types, then discusses the particular issues of accounting for co-operative approaches and for the land sector. It then explores how accounting guidance may be applied within the NDC cycle.
    Keywords: accounting, carbon pricing, climate change, mitigation, UNFCCC
    JEL: F53 O44 Q54 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2017–11–03
  16. By: Thorsten Simon; Peter Fabsic; Georg J. Mayr; Nikolaus Umlauf; Achim Zeileis
    Abstract: A probabilistic forecasting method to predict thunderstorms in the European Eastern Alps is developed. A statistical model links lightning occurrence from the ground-based ALDIS detection network to a large set of direct and derived variables from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. The NWP system is the high resolution run (HRES) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The statistical model is a generalized additive model (GAM) framework, which is estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Gradient boosting with stability selection serves as a tool for selecting a stable set of potentially nonlinear terms. Three grids from 64×64 km 2 to 16×16 km 2 and 5 forecasts horizons from 5 to 1 day ahead are investigated to predict thunderstorms during afternoons (1200 UTC to 1800 UTC). Frequently selected covariates for the nonlinear terms are variants of convective precipitation, convective potential available energy, relative humidity and temperature in the mid layers of the troposphere, among others. All models, even for a lead time of five days, outperform a forecast based on climatology in an out-of-sample comparison. An example case illustrates that coarse spatial patterns are already successfully forecast five days ahead.
    Keywords: lightning detection data, statistical post-processing, generalized additive models, gradient boosting, stability selection, MCMC
    JEL: C11 C53 Q54
    Date: 2017–12
  17. By: Lola Vallejo (OECD); Sara Moarif (IEA)
    Abstract: The future enhanced transparency framework outlined in the Paris Agreement and its accompanying Decision is to build on, enhance and eventually supersede the existing measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) system established under the Cancún Agreements. This paper explores the issues of “building on” and “enhancing” as they relate to the biennial reporting of information on mitigation and finance, by drawing lessons from the existing MRV system and examining the Paris Agreement’s provisions. It examines four areas: greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, reporting on progress with the mitigation component of nationally determined contributions (NDCs), finance provided and mobilised, and financial support received and needed. The paper also highlights the challenges met by Parties while reporting information for these areas to date, and provides suggestions on how forthcoming modalities, procedures and guidelines (MPGs) might reduce these difficulties.
    Keywords: climate change, climate finance, mitigation, transparency, UNFCCC
    JEL: F53 O44 Q54 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2017–11–03
  18. By: Rodolfo Manuelli (Washington University and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
    Abstract: In this paper we develop a continuous time stochastic growth model that is suitable for studying the impact of natural disasters on the short run and long run growth rate of an economy. We find that the growth effects of a natural disaster depend in complicated ways on the details of expected foreign disaster aid and the existence of catastrophe insurance markets. We show that disaster aid can delay recovery. We also show that access to catastrophe insurance can reduce investment in prevention and mitigation activities.
    Date: 2017
  19. By: Coviello, Manlio; Ruchansky, Beno
    Abstract: Este documento sobre la región de América Latina y el Caribe ha sido preparado por la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) como complemento de la segunda parte del informe de 2017 del Marco de Seguimiento Mundial. Su intención es explorar los hallazgos de dicho informe, considerar otras fuentes de datos que puedan ofrecer más información y reflexionar sobre indicadores alternativos para una evaluación más sólida del progreso regional hacia el uso de energías compatibles con el desarrollo sostenible. También se intenta establecer una perspectiva orgánica del sistema energético en la región, para destacar las interconexiones entre la demanda, el suministro, las políticas y los mecanismos de precios que puedan satisfacer las necesidades energéticas de la sociedad de manera sostenible, sin olvidar las interdependencias del sector energético con otros sectores como los de la salud y el agua.
    Date: 2017–11

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