nep-env New Economics Papers
on Environmental Economics
Issue of 2017‒07‒09
24 papers chosen by
Francisco S. Ramos
Universidade Federal de Pernambuco

  1. Spatial Analysis of Emissions in Sweden By George Marbuah; Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah
  2. Resource Extraction and Uncertain Tipping Points By Vislie, Jon
  3. Thoughts on the Economics of Secondary Benefits between Climate Change Mitigation and Air Pollution Regulation By Kristie Ebi; Michael Keller; Richard S.J. Tol; Gary Yohe
  4. Energy Conservation, Fossil Fuel Consumption, CO2 Emission and Economic Growth in Indonesia By Erdyas Bimanatya, Traheka; Widodo, Tri
  5. Leaving an emissions trading scheme – insights from the United Kingdom By Richard S.J. Tol
  6. Sulphur Abatement Globally in Maritime Shipping By Lindstad, Elizabeth; Rehn, Carl Fredrik; Eskeland, Gunnar S.
  7. Indirect land use change (iLUC) revisited: An evaluation of current policy proposals By Delzeit, Ruth; Klepper, Gernot; Söder, Mareike
  8. The Sustainable Development Goals and the systems approach to sustainability By Barbier, Edward; Burgess, Joanne C.
  9. Human capital and sustainable development in Nigeria: How can economic growth suffice environmental degradation? By Ekperiware, Moses Clinton; Olatayo, Timothy O.; Egbetokun, Abiodun Adeyemi
  10. Policy options for a socially balanced climate policy By Schwerhoff, Gregor; Dao, Nguyen Thang; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Grimalda, Gianluca; Jakob, Michael; Klenert, David; Siegmeier, Jan
  11. The environmental tax and subsidy reform in Mexico By Johanna Arlinghaus; Kurt van Dender
  12. Penelitian Serat Alami Untuk Mendukung Pengembangan Industri Textil di Indonesia By Subandi, muhammad
  13. Responsibility, inequality, efficiency, and equity in four sustainability paradigms: policies for a shared sea from a multi-country analytical model By F. Zagonari
  14. Penelitian Serat Alami Untuk Mendukung Pengembangan Industri Textil di Indonesia By Subandi, Muhammad
  15. Incentives to innovate under emission taxes and tradeable permits By Requate, Till
  16. Supporting the UN SDGs transition: Methodology for sustainability assessment and current worldwide ranking By Campagnolo, Lorenza; Eboli, Fabio; Farnia, Luca; Carraro, Carlo
  17. On the current account - biofuels link in emerging and developing countries: do oil price fluctuations matter? By Gabriel Gomes; Emmanuel Hache; Valérie Mignon; Anthony Paris
  18. Key policy actions for sustainable land and water use to serve people By von Braun, Joachim; Gulati, Ashok; Kharas, Homi Jamshed
  19. Digital and Competing Information Sources: Impact on Environmental Concern und Prospects for Cooperation By Vladimir Udalov; Paul J.J. Welfens
  20. Involvement, knowledge and perception in a natural reserve under participatory management: Mida Creek, Kenya By Céline C. Frank; James Gitundu Kairo; Jared O. Bosire; Mohamed Mohamed; Farid Dahdouh-Guebas; Nico Koedam
  21. Permits or taxes? How to regulate Cournot Duopoly with polluting firms By Requate, Till
  22. Speed Limits and Stall Speeds: Fostering Sustainable Growth in the United States By Williams, John C.
  23. Extracting and analyzing the warming trend in global and hemispheric temperatures By Francisco Estrada; Pierre Perron
  24. Characterizing and attributing the warming trend in sea and land surface temperatures By Francisco Estrada; Luis Filipe Martins; Pierre Perron

  1. By: George Marbuah (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences)
    Abstract: This paper contributes to an emerging literature on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between pollution and income at the local level by analyzing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) and total suspended particulate (TSP). We conduct several spatial statistical and econometric tests to account for spatial dependence between 290 Swedish municipalities on the selected emissions. Results highlight evidence that the pollution and income relationship is significantly characterized by spatial interaction effects. That is, municipality per capita emissions are strongly influenced by emissions trajectories in neighbouring municipalities. Implications of our findings on policy are discussed.
    Keywords: Environmental Kuznets curve, Spatial econometric analysis, Emissions, Sweden,
    JEL: Q53 Q55 R12
    Date: 2017–06
  2. By: Vislie, Jon (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)
    Abstract: A global planning problem is analyzed for extracting an exhaustible resource like oil when resource extraction – the only source for current consumption – also generates additions to the stock of GHGs that influence the likelihood of hitting a threshold representing climate change. We derive conditions for optimal extraction when we take into account joint emissions that accumulate to a stock that is governing the planner’s beliefs of facing a climate change that will involve a loss in the production capacity of the global economy. Except for “annuity of the continuation payoff”, which is the stationary rate of welfare after a climate change, the optimality conditions are very similar to the results found in Loury (1978) - where optimal extraction of a non-renewable resource of unknown size was analyzed. Not surprisingly we find that extraction has a cost (“environmental cost”) beyond the standard opportunity cost (“resource rent”), implying a lower rate of extraction as long as no threshold has been hit, compared to the risk-free case. Such saving has an expected rate of return along an optimal strategy should be balanced against the standard required rate of return - the Keynes- Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans-condition.
    Keywords: Resource extraction; tipping point uncertainty; climate change
    JEL: C61 Q32 Q54
    Date: 2017–07–03
  3. By: Kristie Ebi (Department of Global Health, University of Washington); Michael Keller; Richard S.J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex; Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam; CESifo, Munich); Gary Yohe (Department of Economics, Wesleyan University)
    Abstract: Secondary benefits (or costs), otherwise known in the literature as co-benefits or ancillary benefits, are the added net benefits that can be attributed to policies that are above and beyond the primary benefits of climate policies. For example, the primary benefit of greenhouse gas emission reduction is to reduce the magnitude of future climate change; the secondary benefits are expressed in terms of changes in the patterns and concentrations of other pollutants and their secondary compounds. The paper follows a brief review of studies that attempted to quantify health co-benefits with a discussion of the basic underlying economic structure built on first principles of economic thought. It not only portrays the complexity that erupts when there are multiple and interdependent positive or negative externalities across different sources, but also examines several, sometimes surprising conjectures that apply more widely to secondary benefit considerations of all stripes. Concludes remarks synthesize these conjectures for health contexts, for more general policy evaluations beyond the health sphere, and for aggregate constructions such as the social cost of carbon.
    Keywords: climate policy; secondary benefits
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2017–06
  4. By: Erdyas Bimanatya, Traheka; Widodo, Tri
    Abstract: This paper discusses the relationship between fossil fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth for the period of 1965-2012 in Indonesia by applying Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger causality. This paper also estimate the effect of energy conservation policy that has already adopted the National Energy Conservation Master Plan (RIKEN 2005) by Indonesian Government to the pattern of energy consumption in Indonesia from 2014 until 2030. Empirical results show that in the short-run there are unidirectional Granger causalities running from coal consumption to economic growth (growth hypothesis) and from economic growth to oil consumption (conservation hypothesis). However, in the long run the results suggest unidirectional Granger causality only running from oil consumption to economic growth and CO2 emissions. Thus, Indonesia should adopts different policies for each type of energies in order to maintain the economic growth while the effort of reducing fossil fuel consumption is in progress. The projection results imply that Indonesia government should revise the energy efficiency targets in RIKEN 2005 since the result of LEAP Projection based on RIKEN target shows a lower energy saving rate (17.32 percent) compared to the target (18 percent).
    Keywords: Fossil Fuel Consumption; CO2 Emission; Economic Growth.
    JEL: O44 Q43 Q56
    Date: 2017–06–28
  5. By: Richard S.J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex; Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam; CESifo, Munich)
    Abstract: The United Kingdom may opt to leave the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) for greenhouse gases. If so, a central plank of UK climate policy will need to be replaced at short notice. The UK is a large importer of emission permits, and meeting its climate policy targets would be much harder and dearer without the EU ETS. The impact on the EU would be limited, although UK permits circulating in the rest of the EU would lose their legal standing between Brexit and 2021. Non-EU countries take part in the EU ETS, and this appears to be the best option for the UK post-Brexit.
    Keywords: climate policy; tradable permits; Brexit; EU ETS
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2017–06
  6. By: Lindstad, Elizabeth (Sintef Ocean AS (MARINTEK)); Rehn, Carl Fredrik (Dept. of Marine Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Eskeland, Gunnar S. (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: In 2016, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) decided on global regulations to reduce sulphur emissions to air from maritime shipping starting 2020. The regulation implies that ships can continue to use residual fuels with a high sulphur content, such as heavy fuel oil (HFO), if they employ scrubbers to desulphurise the exhaust gases. Alternatively, they can use fuels with less than 0.5% sulphur, such as desulphurised HFO, distillates (diesel) or liquefied natural gas (LNG). The options of lighter fuels and desulphurisation entail costs, including higher energy consumption at refineries, and the present study identifies and compares compliance options as a function of ship type and operational patterns. The results indicate distillates as an attractive option for smaller vessels, while scrubbers will be an attractive option for larger vessels. For all vessels, apart from the largest fuel consumers, residual fuels desulphurised to less than 0.5 % sulphur are also a competing abatement option. Moreover, we analyse the interaction between global SOX reductions and CO2 (and fuel consumption), and the results indicate that the higher fuel cost for distillates will motivate shippers to lower speeds, which will offset the increased CO2 emissions at the refineries. Scrubbers, in contrast, will raise speeds and CO2 emissions.
    Keywords: Shipping and the environment; Abatement cost and options; CO2; Marine fuels; MARPOL; IMO
    JEL: L92 Q50 Q52
    Date: 2017–06–29
  7. By: Delzeit, Ruth; Klepper, Gernot; Söder, Mareike
    Abstract: The contribution of biofuels to save greenhouse gas emissions has been challenged over the last years. A still unresolved question is how to quantify emissions from indirect land use change (iLUC). In this article we discuss the implications of uncertainties on the current policy proposals in the European Union (EU). We conclude that it is inappropriate to calculate crop-specific iLUC-emissions and to include them into binding regulation. We argue that modelling results, particularly crop-specific ones, should not be used for policy decisions. Our discussion of the current EU policy proposal suggests that a combination of an increase in the minimum emissions savings threshold and limits to biofuel production are a safe way to ensure with a high degree of certainty a climate mitigation impact of biofuels.
    Keywords: biofuel policy,indirect land use change,European Union,policy proposals
    JEL: Q42 Q24 Q48 Q16
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Barbier, Edward; Burgess, Joanne C.
    Abstract: The authors explore the link between the systems approach to sustainability and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which were formally adopted by the UN in 2015. The systems approach depicts sustainable development as the intersection of the goals attributed to three interlinked systems: environmental (or ecological), economic and social. The authors illustrate how each of the 17 SDGs can be characterized as a goal primarily attributed either to the environmental, economic or social system, and as suggested by the systems approach, there may be important tradeoffs in attempting to attain all these goals simultaneously. By adopting standard methods of the theory of choice and welfare under imposed quantities, the authors show that is possible to measure the welfare effects of an increase in the indicator level for one SDG by identifying the tradeoffs that occur with achieving another goal. They present a quantitative assessment of current progress and tradeoffs among the 17 SDGs, using a representative indicator for each goal. They then conduct a preliminary welfare analysis of these tradeoffs through employing the approach developed in this paper. Although this analysis focuses on the potential tradeoffs among SDGs, the approach could also be applied to show complementarities, or "winwins", in simultaneous progress among two or more SDGs. Such an analysis can help in the design of appropriate policy interventions to achieve specific SDGs, minimizing the potentially negative knock-on effects on some goals whilst capitalizing on the positive win-win impacts on other SDGs.
    Keywords: sustainable development,Sustainable Development Goals,systems approach,tradeoffs,United Nations
    JEL: Q01 O20 D61 Q56
    Date: 2017
  9. By: Ekperiware, Moses Clinton; Olatayo, Timothy O.; Egbetokun, Abiodun Adeyemi
    Abstract: The motivation for sustainable development is universal but strides to achieve it have been mixed in the literature with some schools of thought's position that economic growth is anti-sustainable development. The crux of this study is to examine the coordinating role (as engine) of human capital among the three pillars of sustainable development in Nigeria from 1981 to 2014 with data from the World Development Indicators (WDI) 2014. Descriptive statistics is used to illustrate observed trend in human capital and the pillars of sustainable development (economic development, social development, and environment protection). Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) econometric technique was used to measure trade-offs, effects, interrelationships, and scenario analysis of these indicators and the prominent role of increased human capital scenario in achieving sustainable development. The analyses of the interrelationship and scenario effects of increased human capital formation showed that environmental degradation negatively affected human capital formation but increases with economic growth. A scenario of further increase in human capital development reduces environmental degradation and increases economic growth in Nigeria. Hence, human capital formation leads to sustained economic growth with reducing environmental degradation.
    Keywords: sustainable development,human capital development,population, and environmental degradation,economic development
    JEL: O1 Q01
    Date: 2017
  10. By: Schwerhoff, Gregor; Dao, Nguyen Thang; Edenhofer, Ottmar; Grimalda, Gianluca; Jakob, Michael; Klenert, David; Siegmeier, Jan
    Abstract: Climate policies, including removing fossil fuel subsidies or imposing carbon prices, can be designed in a way that is both efficient in addressing climate change and results in a fair distribution of the associated costs.
    Keywords: G20,climate policy,distribution
    JEL: D62 E62 H21 H22
    Date: 2017
  11. By: Johanna Arlinghaus (OECD); Kurt van Dender (OECD)
    Abstract: In a bold policy effort, Mexico recently moved away from subsidies to transport fuels, increased tax rates on these fuels and introduced a carbon tax. This paper analyses these reforms using a broad set of criteria that consider the main practical dimensions of environmental policy design: environmental effectiveness, equity and distributional impacts, broader tax system impacts, macroeconomic effects, compliance and administration, policy process and consistency. The reforms significantly improve the extent to which the external costs of energy use are reflected in prices and increase government revenues, but, as price deregulation progresses further, more attention may need to be devoted to analysing and addressing the policies’ distributive effects. The analysis also highlights that ease of administration and collection are an important and desirable property of carbon taxes, especially in emerging market contexts.
    Keywords: carbon pricing, distributional effects, energy taxation, fossil-fuel subsidies, tax reform
    JEL: H23 Q48 Q52
    Date: 2017–07–05
  12. By: Subandi, muhammad
    Abstract: Indonesian textile industry is based on imported raw material, more than 94% cotton fiber must be imported. Ramie fiber has the same characteristic as cotton fiber and fulfills the condition for human clothes. Textile industry is developing to contribute to people economic welfare. Ramie fiber can substitute cotton fiber. Mostly Indonesian land has the agro-climatic characteristic which is unsuitable for cotton plant cultivation, but is suitable for ramie plant cultivation. Ramie is rapid growing plant, it is harvested every 60 days,so it needs more water to solve nutrition available and potential in the soil. Cultivation the natural fiber producing plant is considered very possible with some amendment in some environmental condition.
    Keywords: Key words : environmental, ramie, textile, potential,
    JEL: Q16
    Date: 2017
  13. By: F. Zagonari
    Abstract: This paper develops a theoretical framework for four sustainability paradigms (weak sustainability, a-growth, de-growth, strong sustainability) within cooperative and non-cooperative scenarios, and includes changes in four values (a sense of responsibility to nature and future generations; aversion to inequality for current and future generations). The model assesses the feasibility of sustainability solutions for a shared environment as a function of specific value changes in each country by interpreting these value changes as support for environmental policies. The solutions are defined in terms of consumption, use of the environment, and welfare of representative individuals in each country; they are characterised by efficiency and equality at both intra- and inter-generational levels; they are checked for internal consistency and consistency with alternative approaches such as utilitarianism, egalitarianism (i.e., Arneson, Dworkin, Sen), and contractarianism. Theoretical insights are obtained by comparing contextual stability and relative effectiveness of the environment’s use among countries in alternative scenarios. A case study of the Baltic Sea operationally suggests that the currently adopted strong sustainability (i.e., an ecosystem approach) in a non-cooperative scenario (i.e., countries attempt to maximize their own rather than overall welfare) is internally consistent, relatively efficient, and consistent with Dworkin egalitarianism. A-growth was never feasible, but de-growth in which Denmark, Finland, Germany, and Sweden increase environmental protection would increase intra-generational equality; de-growth or weak sustainability in which Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Russia increase environmental R&D would increase intra- and inter-generational equality; weak sustainability and de-growth consistent with Arneson and Dworkin egalitarianism would improve the environmental status.
    JEL: Q5
    Date: 2017–06
  14. By: Subandi, Muhammad
    Abstract: Abstract Indonesian textile industry is based on imported raw material, more than 94% cotton fiber must be imported. Ramie fiber has the same characteristic as cotton fiber and fulfills the condition for human clothes. Textile industry is developing to contribute to people economic welfare. Ramie fiber can substitute cotton fiber. Mostly Indonesian land has the agro-climatic characteristic which is unsuitable for cotton plant cultivation, but is suitable for ramie plant cultivation. Ramie is rapid growing plant, it is harvested every 60 days,so it needs more water to solve nutrition available and potential in the soil. Cultivation the natural fiber producing plant is considered very possible with some amendment in some environmental condition
    Keywords: environmental, ramie, textile, potential
    JEL: Q59
    Date: 2017
  15. By: Requate, Till (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University)
    Date: 2017–04–04
  16. By: Campagnolo, Lorenza; Eboli, Fabio; Farnia, Luca; Carraro, Carlo
    Abstract: The FEEM project APPS - Assessment, Projections and Policy of Sustainable Development Goals lies in the stream of research related to the quantitative assessment of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), adopted by the United Nations at the end of September 2015. The project consists of two phases. The first, retrospective, derives a composite multi-dimensional index and a worldwide ranking of current sustainability. This allows informing on strengths and weaknesses of today socioeconomic development, as well as environmental criticalities, all around the world. The second phase, prospective, aims evaluating the future trends of sustainability in the world by 2030. The assessment is carried out by means of an extended version of the recursivedynamic computable general equilibrium ICES macro-economic model that includes social and environmental indicators. The final goal is to highlight future challenges left unsolved in next 15 years of socio-economic development and analyze costs and benefits of specific policies to support the achievement of proposed targets. The methodology goes through the following steps: screening of indicators eligible to address the UN SDGs; data collection from relevant sources; organization in the three pillars of sustainability (economy, society, and environment); normalization to a common metrics; aggregation of the 25 indicators in composite indices by pillars as well as in the multi-dimensional index. The final ranking includes 139 countries. North European countries are at top of the ranking (Sweden, Norway and Switzerland).
    Keywords: Sustainable Development Goals,Composite Index,ranking,indicators
    JEL: O44 O57 Q01
    Date: 2017
  17. By: Gabriel Gomes; Emmanuel Hache; Valérie Mignon; Anthony Paris
    Abstract: Many developed countries promote the use of biofuels for environmental concerns, leading to a rise in the price of agricultural commodities utilized in their production. Such environmental policies have major effects on the economy of emerging and developing countries whose activity is highly dependent on agricultural commodities involved in biofuel production. This paper tackles this issue by examining the price impact of biofuels on the current account for a panel of 16 developing and emerging countries, and the potential nonlinear effect exerted by the price of oil on this relationship. Relying on the estimation of panel smooth-transition regression models, we show that positive shocks in the price of biofuels lead to a current-account improvement for agricultural commodity exporters and producers only when the price of oil is below a certain threshold. When the price of oil exceeds this threshold, uctuations in the price of biofuels no longer affect the current account. These findings illustrate that a rise in the price of oil exerts a negative effect on the trade balance of commodity exporters which are also oil importers, dampening the biofuel price impact on the current-account position.
    Keywords: Biofuels; Oil; Current account; Panel smooth transition regression.
    JEL: Q16 Q43 F32 C23
    Date: 2017
  18. By: von Braun, Joachim; Gulati, Ashok; Kharas, Homi Jamshed
    Abstract: To achieve food security for all, new resource policies for sustainable land and water use are needed. Land, water and energy need to be considered jointly in policies, not in isolation. G20 countries' policy makers, corporate and civil society actors, and those of other countries should act in coordinated fashion in the following four policy areas on which specific proposals are made in this policy paper: 1) focusing land, and water resource policies on human wellbeing, 2) investing in and sharing water, agricultural and energy innovations, 3) making wider use of digital opportunities for sustainable agriculture, and 4) re-designing global governance of agriculture and food.
    Keywords: G-20,international resource policy,sustainable agriculture,food security
    JEL: F53 Q10 Q18 Q28
    Date: 2017
  19. By: Vladimir Udalov (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)); Paul J.J. Welfens (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))
    Abstract: Summary: The environmental concern of people in industrialized and developing countries is analysed. Using the 2010-2014 wave of the World Value Survey (WVS), the main purpose of our analysis is to investigate the effect of different information sources on the affective, conative and behavioural components of the environmental concern of people in the developed and developing countries. As independent variables we use a set of economic data as well as information-related variables, including the internet, mobile phones, TV, radio and newspapers. The digital variables of the internet and mobile phones turn out to have a highly significant impact on environmental concern so that digital modernization of countries should have pro-environmental impacts as a side-effect of internet and mobile phone services expansion. With the developing countries catching-up vis-à-vis the OECD countries in the field of mobile phone density and internet density, respectively, one may expect better prospects for cooperation between developed and developing countries since attitudes/the environmental concern of people in developed and developing countries will become more similar – an effect that is reinforced through the income variable.
    Keywords: environmetnal concern, world value survey, mass media, information technologies, international economics
    JEL: Q50 D10 C83 D80
    Date: 2017–04
  20. By: Céline C. Frank; James Gitundu Kairo; Jared O. Bosire; Mohamed Mohamed; Farid Dahdouh-Guebas; Nico Koedam
    Abstract: Participatory forest management (PFM), as opposed to top down state management, is part of the decentralization process that has occurred in Africa over the past few decades. In Kenya, the process is still at its dawn with enforcing laws dating from 2005 and many pilot projects now in course. Little feedback has been given so far. This case study evaluates, for the first time, participatory management of a Kenyan protected mangrove forest. PFM, coupled with a status of protection, is believed to be an efficient way to preserve the threatened mangrove forests. Semi-structured interviews with local community members (people living within or next to the forest) and key-informants (people working in the forest management) were performed in order to measure three major components of participatory management: Knowledge, involvement, and perception of local communities. Those interviews revealed a partial and overall low involvement of local communities in the formal participatory management structure. Knowledge of the policy concerning mangrove forest management was higher for the people having a job related to natural resources from the forest (e.g. fishing or tour guiding) and for people holding at least a primary level education. The former group was also more involved in the management process. Villagers who were better informed about PFM approaches were also generally more involved in the management. Perceptions of PFM were contrasted and many criticisms were revealed at this early stage of implementation. These results are believed to evolve positively as the government regains trust among local communities who are given more power and wardenship on the forest.
    Keywords: Decentralization; Kenya; Mangrove; Participatory forest management
    Date: 2017–06
  21. By: Requate, Till (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University)
    Date: 2017–04–04
  22. By: Williams, John C. (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
    Abstract: Presentation at the University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, Australia, by John C. Williams, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, June 26, 2017
    Date: 2017–06–26
  23. By: Francisco Estrada (Universidad Nacional AutÛnoma de MÈxico and VU University Amsterdam); Pierre Perron (Boston University)
    Abstract: This paper offers an updated and extended attribution analysis based on recently published versions of temperature and forcing datasets. It shows that both temperature and radiative forcing variables can be best represented as trend stationary processes with structural changes occurring in the slope of their trend functions and that they share a common secular trend and common breaks, largely determined by the anthropogenic radiative forcing. The common nonlinear trend is isolated and further evidence on the possible causes of the current slowdown in warming is presented. Our analysis offers interesting results in relation to the recent literature. Changes in the anthropogenic forcings are directly responsible for the hiatus as in Estrada et al. (2013a), while natural factors such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode, as well as the new temperature adjustments in Karl et al. (2105) contribute to weaken the signal. In other words, natural variability and data adjustments do not explain in any way the hiatus, they simply mask its presence.
    Keywords: Climate change; warming hiatus; structural break; co-trending; principal component analysis
    Date: 2016–05
  24. By: Francisco Estrada (Universidad Nacional AutÛnoma de MÈxico and VU University Amsterdam); Luis Filipe Martins (ISCTE-IUL); Pierre Perron (Boston University)
    Abstract: Because of low-frequency internal variability, the observed and underlying warming trends in temperature series can be markedly different. Important differences in the observed nonlinear trends in hemisheric temperature series would suggest that the northern and southern hemispheres have responded differently to the changes in the radiative forcing. Using recent econometric techniques, we can reconcile such differences and show that all sea and land temperatures share similar time series properties and a common underlying warming trend having a dominant anthropogenic origin. We also investigate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry (ITA) and show that the differences in warming between hemispheres is in part driven by antropogenic forcing but that most of the observed rapid changes is likely due to natural variability. The attribution of changes in ITA is relevant since increases in the temperature contrast between hemispheres could potentially produce a shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone and alter rainfall patterns. The existence of a current slowdown in the warming and its causes is also investigated. The results suggest that the slowdown is a common feature in global and hemispheric sea and land temperatures that can, at least partly, be attributed to changes in anthropogenic forcing.
    Keywords: Climate change; warming hiatus; structural break; co-trending; principal component analysis.
    Date: 2017–03

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