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on Environmental Economics |
| By: | Goel,Deepti; Gupta,Sonam |
| Abstract: | The Delhi Metro (DM) is a mass rapid transit system serving the National Capital Region of India. It is also the world?s first rail project to earn carbon credits under the Clean Development Mechanism of the United Nations for reductions in CO2 emissions. Did the DM also lead to localized reduction in three transportation source pollutants? Looking at the period 2004?2006, one of the larger rail extensions of the DM led to a 34 percent reduction in localized CO at a major traffic intersection in the city. Results for NO2 are also suggestive of a decline, while those for PM25 are inconclusive due to missing data. These impacts of pollutant reductions are for the short run. A complete accounting of all long run costs and benefits should be done before building capital intensive metro rail projects. |
| Keywords: | Air Quality&Clean Air,Pollution Management&Control,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Brown Issues and Health |
| Date: | 2015–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7448&r=all |
| By: | Julien Brunet (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - Polytechnique - X - CNRS); Alena Kotelnikova (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - Polytechnique - X - CNRS); Jean-Pierre Ponssard (CNRS, Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - Polytechnique - X - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | In Europe the transport sector contributes about 25% of total GHG emissions, 75% of which come from road transport. Contrarily to industrial emissions road emissions have increased over the period 1990-2015 in OECD countries: California (+26%), Germany (0%), France (+12%), Japan (+2%), Denmark (+30%). The number of registered vehicles on road in these countries amounts respectively to: California (33 million), Germany (61.5 million), France (38 million), Japan (77 million), Denmark (4 million). Even if these numbers are not expected to grow in the future this calls for major programs to reduce the corresponding GHG emissions in order to achieve the global GHG targets for 2050. The benefits from these programs will spread out to non OECD countries in which road emissions are bound to increase. Programs to promote zero emissions vehicles (ZEV) effectively started in the 2000’s through public private partnerships involving government agencies, manufacturers, utilities and fuel companies. These partnerships provided subsidies for R&D, pilot programs and infrastructure. Moreover, technical norms for emissions, global requirements for the portfolio of sales for manufacturers, rebates on the purchasing price for customers as well as various perks (driving bus lanes, free parking, etc.) are now in place. These multiple policy instruments constitute powerful incentives to orient the strategies of manufacturers and to stimulate the demand for ZEV. The carbon tax on the distribution of fossil fuels, whenever it exists, remains low and, at this stage, cannot be considered as an important driving force. The cases studies reveal important differences for the deployment of battery electric vehicle (BEV) versus fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV). BEV is leading the game with a cheaper infrastructure investment cost and a lower cost for vehicle. The relatively low autonomy makes BEV mostly suited for urban use, which is a large segment of the road market. The current level of BEV vehicles on roads starts to be significant with California (70,000), Germany (25,000), France (31,000), Japan (608,000) Denmark (3,000), but they remain very low relative to the targets for 2020: California (1.5 million), Germany (1 million), France (2 million), Japan (0.8-1.1 million for ZEV new registrations), Denmark (0.25 million). The developments and efficiency gains in battery technology along with subsidies for battery charging public stations are expected to facilitate the achievement of the growth. The relative rates of equipment (number of publicly available stations / number of BEV) provide indirect evidence on the effort made in the different countries: California (3%), Germany (12%), France (28%), Japan (11%), and Denmark (61%). In some countries public procurement plays a significant role. In France Autolib (publicly available cars in towns) represents a large share of the overall BEV deployment (12%), and the government recently announced a 50% target for low emissions in all public vehicles new equipment. FCEV is still in an early deployment stage due to a higher infrastructure investment cost and a higher cost for vehicle. The relatively high autonomy combined with speed refueling make FCEV mostly suited for long distance and interurban usage. At present there are only a very limited numbers of HRS deployed: California (28), Germany (15), France (6), Japan (31), Japan (7), Denmark (7), and only a few units of H2 vehicles on road: California (300), Germany (125), France (60), Japan (7), Denmark (21). However, a detailed analysis of the current road maps suggests that FCEV has a large potential. Targets for the 2025-2030 horizons are significant in particular in Germany (4% in 2030), Denmark (4.5% in 2025) and Japan (15-20% for ZEV new registrations in 2020). The California ARB has recently redefined its program (subsidies and mandates) to provide higher incentives for FCEV. France appears to focus on specialized regional submarkets to promote FCEV (such as the use of H2 range extending light utility vehicles). The financing of the H2 infrastructure appears as a bottleneck for FCEV deployment. Roadmaps address this issue through progressive geographical expansion (clusters) and a high level of public subsidies hydrogen refueling station (HRS) in particular in all countries except France. At this stage of BEV and FCEV do not appear as direct competitors; they address distinct market segments. Unexpected delays in the development of infrastructure in FCEV, possible breakthroughs in battery technology, and the promotion of national champions may change the nature of this competition, making it more intense in the future. |
| Keywords: | transports |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01212353&r=all |
| By: | Patrick GUILLAUMONT (Ferdi) |
| Abstract: | The debates on the financing of the adaptation to climate change have so far not really addressed its allocation between developing countries. This chapter examines how the concessional funds for adaptation should be allocated. The principle proposed is the allocation of these funds to developing countries primarily according to their vulnerability to climate change, for which they are not responsible. This leads to a "Vulnerability Based Allocation” (VBA). To this end a physical vulnerability to climate change index (PVCCI) is proposed, as tentatively established by Ferdi: the index aggregates the physical impacts of climate change according to their main identifiable channels. The index is likely to be regularly updated. Its average level is given by group of countries (LDCs, SIDS, LICs,LMICs, etc). To determine the allocation of adaptation funds this index should be used in a simple formula which also includes per capita income, since the poorer they are the less resilient to climate change countries are . The choice of the parameters of the formula will transparently express the consensus of the international community about the principles of allocation of "adaptation credits" by country. A tentative simulation is proposed to show the relative share that each group of countries would receive (more than half for LDCs), and the ratio of the level of allocation per capita related to its average for developing countries (high for SIDS, as well as for LDCs). Adaptation credits could be used by countries via accredited financial institutions to which they would submit their adaptation programs or projects. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:2390&r=all |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Khraief, Naceur; Dhaoui, Abderrazak |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal relationship between road transportation energy consumption, fuel prices, transport sector value added and CO2 emissions in Tunisia for the period 1980-2012. We apply the newly developed combined cointegration test proposed by Bayer and Hanck (2013) and the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration to establish the existence of long-run relationship in presence of structural breaks. The direction of causality between these variables is determined via vector error correction model (VECM). Our empirical exercise reveals that the cointegration is present. Energy consumption adds in CO2 emissions. Fuel prices decline CO2 emissions. Road infrastructure boosts in CO2 emissions. Transport value-added also increases CO2 emissions. The causality analysis indicates the bidirectional casual relationship between energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Road infrastructure causes CO2 emissions and similar is true from opposite side in Granger sense. The bidirectional causality is also found between transport value-added and CO2 emissions. Fuel prices cause CO2 emissions, energy consumption, road infrastructure and transport value-added. This paper provides new insights to policy makers to design a comprehensive energy, transport and environment policies for sustainable economic growth in long run. |
| Keywords: | Road Transport, CO2 Emissions, Tunisia |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2015–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67286&r=all |
| By: | Roger Fouquet |
| Abstract: | This paper sought to draw lessons from long run trends in energy markets for energy and climate policy. An important lesson is that consumer responses to energy markets change with economic development. In particular, evidence suggests that income elasticities of demand for energy services have tended to follow an inverse-U shape curve. Thus, at low levels of economic development, energy service consumption tends to be quite responsive to per capita income changes; at mid-levels, consumption tends to be very responsive to changes in income per capita; and, at high levels, consumption is less responsive to income changes. The paper also highlights the risks to developing countries of locking-in to carbon intensive infrastructure or behaviours. Without guidance and incentives, rapid economic development is likely to lock consumers into high energy service prices in the long run and bind the economy onto a high energy intensity trajectory with major long run economic and environmental impacts. Thus, effective energy service policies in periods of rapid development, such as in China and India at present, are crucial for the long run prosperity of the economy. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp209&r=all |
| By: | Nathalie Berta (REGARDS - Université de Reims et Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Emmanuelle Gautherat (REGARDS - Université de Reims et LS-CREST - Genes); Ozgur Gun (REGARDS - Université de Reims) |
| Abstract: | The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is supposed to help regulated installations to cover their CO2 emissions by trading in allowances. In practice, the EU ETS is mainly a financial market used for hedging and speculation. This financial feature is regarded as a solution (hedging and liquidity) to a problem (the price risk and volatility imposed on installations) which the market has actually created itself. This paper provides an estimation of the real underpinning of the scheme, i.e. the needs of installations for allowances transfers to achieve compliance in the two first exchange periods. This estimation, which was singularly lacking in the literature, shows that compliance transactions become more and more marginal as market activity grows and that they are drowned in a whirlpool of speculation. This challenges the role of the carbon price whose financial and self-referential evaluation can obviously not reveal installations' marginal abatement costs, the condition of cost-effectiveness expected from carbon trading |
| Keywords: | European Union Emissions Trading Scheme; carbon market; CO2 allowance; carbon finance |
| JEL: | B5 Q02 Q5 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:15074&r=all |
| By: | Baran Doda; Luca Taschini |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a simple framework to evaluate the economic advantage of regulating carbon emissions by linking the emissions trading systems (ETSs) of two jurisdictions versus operating them under autarky. The ETSs are linked if the permits issued in one, and traded competitively across both, can be surrendered against emissions in the other. The paper’s main innovation is in analyzing the sensitivity of aggregate and jurisdiction-specific economic advantage to the characteristics of the jurisdictions, in particular the uncertainty affecting the benefits of emissions. We decompose the economic advantage of linking into pair size, volatility and dependence effects. We show that when jurisdictions are ex ante identical and there are no tax distortions or sunk costs, the aggregate economic advantage is always non-negative and equally shared. It increases in pair size and in volatilities of jurisdiction-specific shocks but decreases in their correlation. In other words, there are only good and better links. With differences in ETS size the economic advantage is not equally shared, and the smaller jurisdiction receives a larger share. That is, linking partners may not value the link equally. When we additionally introduce sunk costs of linking, one jurisdiction may prefer an ETS under autarky to linking even when aggregate economic advantage is positive. A similar conclusion emerges with unilateral tax distortions affecting international permit trade. In an empirical application, we calibrate shock characteristics to the observed fluctuations in data from the world’s 20 largest emitters and document substantial variation in economic advantage and its components. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp208&r=all |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Mallick, Hrushikesh; Kumar, Mantu; Loganathan, Nanthakumar |
| Abstract: | Using annual data for the period 1970-2012, the study explores the relationship between globalization and CO2 emissions by incorporating energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in CO2 emission function for India. It applies Lee and Strazicich (2013) unit root test for examining the stationary properties of variables in presence of structural breaks and employs the cointegration method proposed by Bayer-Hanck (2013) to test the long-run relationships in the model. The robustness s of cointegration result from the latter model was further verified with the application of the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration proposed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001). After confirming the existence of cointegration, the overall long run estimates of the estimation of carbon emission model points out that acceleration in the process of globalization (measured in its three dimensions - economic, social and political globalizations) and energy consumption result in increasing CO2 emissions, along with the contribution of economic development and financial development towards the deterioration of the environmental quality by raising CO2 emissions over the long-run. This finding validates holding of environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for the Indian context. |
| Keywords: | Globalization, Economic growth, Energy consumption, CO2 Emissions |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2015–10–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67285&r=all |
| By: | Alton Theresa; Arndt Channing; Gebretsadik Yohannes; Hartley Faaiqa; Makrelov Konstantin; Strzepek Kenneth; Thurlow James; Schlosser C. Adam; Gabriel Sherwin; Cullis James; Cartwright Anton; Chang Alice; de Jager Gerald; Robertson Gordon |
| Abstract: | This study represents the first attempt at an integrated approach to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the national economy of South Africa via a number of (but not necessarily all) impact channels. The study focuses on outcomes by abou |
| Keywords: | Climatic changes, Economic development, Economic growth, Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2015-045&r=all |
| By: | Swenja Surminski |
| Abstract: | Adapting to climate change requires the engagement of a wide range of stakeholders, including the private sector. However, little is still known about if and how corporations, particularly those operating in the Global South, are involved in climate adaptation. This paper explores the existing evidence base, provides insights into multinational corporations’ adaptation framings in their external communication, and asks what we can learn from corporate adaptation disclosure. Our review suggests that if adaptation is used in corporate disclosure, it is commonly framed along one or more of the following categories: risk reduction, supply chain management, corporate social responsibility, and/or business opportunities. We investigate this in greater detail for global Food and Beverage (F&B) companies that operate in developing countries. By comparing adaptation case studies both in the UNFCCC’s Private Sector Initiative (PSI) database and in the companies’ own sustainability reporting, we find that F&B companies frame their engagement using risk and supply chain-based language, with a focus on short-term business opportunities, while the need for strategic planning for longer-term action in response to future risks is largely missing from the companies’ discourse. We argue that a better understanding of private sector’s terminology and disclosure on adaptation is important for establishing collaborative, multi-stakeholder processes of adaptation in developing countries. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp210&r=all |
| By: | Raphaël Trotignon; Pierre-André Jouvet; Boris Solier; Simon Quemin; Jérémy Elbeze |
| Abstract: | In January 2014, the European Commission proposed the introduction of a Market Stability Reserve (MSR) to improve the functioning of the European carbon emission trading scheme. This article is an attempt to enlighten the possible effects of such a reserve on the functioning of the EU ETS using the behavior-based simulation model Zephyr, specifically designed for representing imperfect inter-temporal compliance behavior in a simple framework. Our results suggest that the MSR can indeed raise the price in the short-medium term, reduce the number of allowances in circulation and foster earlier emission reductions. Nevertheless, it would do so at the expense of higher overall costs, because allowances are unlikely to be returned entirely to the market when needed, thus reinforcing the cap. The MSR also does not seem to have the desired dampening effect in case of external shocks. We conclude that although the MSR can help trigger early abatement and put Europe on a more ambitious abatement pathway over the long term, in the frame of our methodology, it seems unlikely that such a reserve make market participants and the public authority more able to deal with uncertainties in the future. |
| Keywords: | EU ETS, Market Stability Reserve (MSR), Simulation model, Governance |
| JEL: | Q58 P48 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cec:wpaper:1511&r=all |
| By: | Amelia Sharman |
| Abstract: | Much of the existing literature employing the framework of controversy focuses on the science-policy interface. However a clear gap exists regarding the way(s) in which controversy may fundamentally shape the production of scientific knowledge itself. This research uses the debate about climate change as a case study to understand the impact of controversy on the production of scientific knowledge, focusing in particular on the interrelated elements of scientific practice and the agency of individual scientists. Based on 63 research interviews with climate scientists, “sceptical voices†about climate change and others, it finds that whereas the majority of climate scientists do not consider sceptical voices to have an impact on scientific practice, the vast majority do identify impacts on scientific agency. The predominant type of agency-related impact is increased caution, followed by disruption, a greater focus on communication, defensiveness and reluctance to publicly engage. It is argued that scientists’ ability to distinguish between impacts on agency and practice is both a performative expression of Gieryn’s (1999) notion of boundary work and a function of controversy, with the greater the impact of controversy, the less fluid and contingent the boundary between the two. Boundary work is thus a more active and explicit process under conditions of public scientific controversy, as scientists work to ensure the independence and unassailability of their cognitive authority in contested domains. Potential implications for epistemological norms and the social value of science are also identified. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp207&r=all |
| By: | Bianca Peters (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Stephanie F. McWhinnie (School of Economics, University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | Reducing dependence on fossil fuels by decreasing energy consumption is a common environmental policy. One mechanism used to achieve this is to encourage increased energy efficiency. However, improving efficiency may have an opposing effect and cause an increase in energy consumption if the intensity of use changes. This phenomenon is known as the rebound effect. We estimate direct rebound effects for energy use in Australia based on household expenditure data. Our approach implements a new methodology developed by Hunt and Ryan (2014, 2015) that explicitly relates energy service use with energy source demand and directly incorporates efficiency. The results indicate that the rebound effect is high for electricity and gas use by Australian households. Due to the unique nature of our dataset, we can examine the influence of income and household composition on the rebound effect. We find that low-income households and households with young children have the largest rebound effects for electricity. The largest rebound effects for gas are estimated for households with young children and older persons. The relatively large rebound effects found here suggest that consumers gain from efficiency by improved energy services, thus policy targeting energy efficiency is not likely to be successful at reducing energy consumption. |
| Keywords: | Energy; Rebound Effect; Own-price Elasticity |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2015-18&r=all |
| By: | Giacomo Ponzetto (CREI, U. Pompeu Fabra, & Barcelona GSE); Amedeo Piolatto (Barcelona Economics Institute (IEB)); Federico Boffa (Free University of Bolzano) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies fiscal federalism when regions differ in voters' ability to monitor public officials. We develop a model of political agency in which rent-seeking politicians provide public goods to win support from heterogeneously informed voters. In equilibrium, voter information increases government accountability but displays decreasing returns. Therefore, political centralization reduces aggregate rent extraction when voter information varies across regions. It increases welfare as long as the central government is required to provide public goods uniformly across regions. The need for uniformity implies an endogenous trade off between reducing rents through centralization and matching idiosyncratic preferences through decentralization. We find that a federal structure with overlapping levels of government can be optimal only if regional differences in accountability are sufficiently large. The model predicts that less informed regions should reap greater benefits when the central government sets a uniform policy. Consistent with our theory, we present empirical evidence that less informed states enjoyed faster declines in pollution after the 1970 Clean Air Act centralized environmental policy at the federal level. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed015:1015&r=all |
| By: | Akpalu Wisdom; Muchapondwa Edwin; Adidoye Babatunde; Simbanegavi Witness |
| Abstract: | A linear public good experiment has been employed to investigate strategic behaviour in pollution abatement among African climate decision-makers. The experiment consisted of three groups of which Group 1 did not receive any treatments, and Groups 2 and 3 |
| Keywords: | Group decision making, Hazardous wastes, Natural disasters, Pollution |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2015-060&r=all |
| By: | E. Lance Howe (Department of Economics, University of Alaska Anchorage); James J. Murphy (Department of Economics, University of Alaska Anchorage; Institute of State Economy, Nankai University; Economic Science Institute, Chapman University); Drew Gerkey (Department of Anthropology, Oregon State University); Colin T. West (Department of Anthropology, University of North Carolina) |
| Abstract: | Integrating information from existing research, qualitative ethnographic interviews, and participant observation, we designed a field experiment that introduces idiosyncratic environmental risk and a voluntary sharing decision into a standard public goods game. Conducted with subsistence resource users in rural villages in remote Kamchatka Russia, we find evidence consistent with a model of indirect reciprocity and local social norms of helping the needy. When experiments allow participants to develop reputations, as is the case in most small-scale societies, we find that sharing is increasingly directed toward individuals experiencing hardship, good reputations increase aid, and risk-pooling becomes more effective. Our results highlight the importance of investigating social and ecological factors, beyond strategic risk, that affect the balance between independence and interdependence when developing and testing theories of cooperation. |
| Keywords: | experimental economics, field experiment, public goods, risk-pooling, resource sharing, team production |
| JEL: | D70 H41 D81 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ala:wpaper:2015-04&r=all |
| By: | Arndt Channing |
| Abstract: | The distinction between development assistance and climate finance is driven by an optic of compensation largely derived from the `polluter pays´ principle. For practical as well as conceptual reasons, this principle provides a weak basis for climate fin |
| Keywords: | Climatic changes, Economic assistance and foreign aid, Global warming |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2015-029&r=all |
| By: | Ramón E. López; Eugenio Figueroa B. |
| Abstract: | This paper hypothesizes that fiscal policy is one important factor determining whether or not environmentally and socially sustainable economic growth is possible. We postulate that tax policies affect the incentives to make the economy more or less dependent on natural resources and the environment as factors of production. So-called pro-growth tax policies consisting on a low tax burden, low direct taxes but high indirect ones, affect the composition of factor endowment, often inducing over investment in physical capital and under investment in human capital including education and health. These policies in part explain a structure of production heavily dependent on natural resource-based and environmentally-dirty industries. Also, these tax policies induce high levels of inequality that ultimately may render economic growth socially and politically unsustainable. This analysis has important implications for Chile and other developing countries especially in Latin America which are highly dependent on natural resources and have unequal income distribution. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp411&r=all |
| By: | Fander Falconí (Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, FLACSO-Ecuador); Rafael Burbano (Departamento de Matemática, Escuela Politécnica Nacional, Ecuador); Jesus Ramos-Martin (Centro de Prospectiva Estrategica, Instituto de Altos Estudios Nacionales) |
| Abstract: | Los científicos del cambio climático han establecido el límite de aumento de temperaturas en 2°C a partir del cual el proceso sería completamente irreversible. Este nivel viene determinado por la concentración de CO2 en la atmósfera. Evitar sobrepasar este umbral implica dejar de utilizar una cantidad ingente de combustibles fósiles que hoy en día las empresas hidrocarburíferas consideran activos; son los llamados activos tóxicos, pues no pueden ser explotados para mantener el clima bajo control. Dada la relación entre PIB y consumo de energía, esta investigación presenta una metodología de cálculo y resultados para encontrar umbrales de ingreso per cápita más allá de los cuales se sobrepasaría el umbral de temperatura, por lo que esos niveles de ingreso podrían ser considerados como “ingreso tóxico”. La investigación encuentra que en el período 2032-2043 se alcanzaría el rango de ingresos de 10,745-14,155 USD per cápita (dólares constantes de 2000) a partir del cual la estabilidad climática estaría en peligro. |
| Keywords: | Cambio climático, CO2, ingreso tóxico |
| JEL: | Q43 Q54 Q57 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpe:cpewps:2015_07&r=all |
| By: | Nilo Luiz Saccaro; Junior Lucas Ferreira Mation; Patrícia Alessandra Morita Sakowski |
| Abstract: | O reduzido conhecimento acerca dos efeitos do desmatamento sobre a saúde humana é uma importante lacuna para o gerenciamento do ambiente e da saúde no Brasil e no mundo. A fim de avaliar o impacto do desmatamento sobre a incidência de doenças, realizamos uma análise em painel, relacionando dados de desmatamento e de doenças de notificação compulsória, por município e por ano, cobrindo os 773 municípios da Amazônia Legal, entre 2004 e 2012. Foram realizadas estimações separadamente para cada doença, com a inclusão de controles para efeitos fixos de município, para aspectos socioeconômicos e para a provisão de serviços públicos de saúde. Entre as doenças que possuíam dados suficientes para a análise, verificamos que o desmatamento possui efeito significativo sobre leishmaniose e malária: incrementos anuais na área municipal desmatada levam a aumentos expressivos em sua incidência. Por outro lado, não foram captados efeitos estatisticamente significantes sobre doenças apontadas como fortes candidatas por alguns autores. Os resultados confirmam a existência de custos do desmatamento relacionados à saúde, embora estes não se apliquem a uma gama ampla de doenças. Evidencia-se a existência de custos do desmatamento relacionados à saúde na Amazônia, o que deve ser levado em consideração tanto no gerenciamento da saúde pública quanto na tomada de decisões relativas ao capital natural. The lack of knowledge about the effects of deforestation on human health is an important gap for management of the environment and health in Brazil and worldwide. In order to assess its occurrence and magnitude, we performed a panel analysis, linking data on deforestation and reportable diseases, by municipality and year, covering 773 municipalities in the Amazon between 2004 and 2012. Estimates were conducted separately for each disease, with the inclusion of controls for fixed effects of municipality, socioeconomic features and provision of public health services. Among the diseases that had sufficient data for analysis, we found that deforestation has a significant effect on leishmaniasis and malaria: annual increases in the municipal deforested area lead to significant increases on incidence. On the other hand, statistically significant effects were not detected for diseases indicated as strong candidates by some authors. The results confirm the existence of health-related deforestation costs, although these do not apply to a wide range of diseases. We highlight the existence of deforestation costs related to health in the Amazon, which must be taken into account both in the management of public health and in making decisions regarding natural capital. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2142&r=all |
| By: | Cécile Couharde; Rémi Generoso |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we exploit the Global Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index database to search for a nonlinear relationship between hydro-climatic conditions and economic growth on a sample of developing countries over the period 1980-2011. We evidence a nonlinear link between hydro-climatic conditions and economic growth only in developing agricultural-dependant countries, the impact of hydro-climatic variations being more easily absorbed in more diversified economies. Furthermore, threshold values reached by hydro-climatic conditions that drive changes in the pattern of economic growth are lower than to those corresponding to extreme weather conditions, suggesting a high sensitivity of economic growth in developing agricultural-dependent countries to small fluctuations in weather. |
| Keywords: | Developing countries; Economic growth; Hydro-climatic conditions; Panel Smooth Transtion Regression (PSTR) model. |
| JEL: | C33 Q54 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2015-26&r=all |
| By: | Patrick GUILLAUMONT (Ferdi) |
| Abstract: | La négociation sur la finance pour le climat a jusqu’ici peu traité de son allocation entre pays en développement. Ce chapitre examine comment devraient être alloués les fonds concessionnels destinés à l’adaptation. Il repose sur un principe, qui est d’allouer ces fonds aux pays principalement en fonction de la vulnérabilité au changement climatique dont ils ne sont pas responsables (« vulnerability based allocation (VBA)»). A cette fin un indice de vulnérabilité physique au changement climatique (PVCCI) est proposé, tel qu’établi par la Ferdi : l’indice agrège l’impact physique du changement selon les principaux canaux identifiables ; il est susceptible d’être régulièrement remis à jour ; son niveau moyen est indiqué par groupe de pays. Pour déterminer l’allocation cet indice doit ensuite être utilisé dans une formule simple à côté du revenu par tête dans la mesure où les pays sont d’autant moins résilients aux chocs climatiques qu’ils sont plus pauvres. Le choix des paramètres de la formule doit exprimer de façon transparente un consensus de la communauté internationale sur le principe de détermination de « crédits d’adaptation » par pays. Une simulation est proposée à titre d’illustration faisant apparaître la part relative que recevrait chaque groupe de pays (plus de la moitié pour les Pays les moins avancés (PMA) et le niveau d’allocation par tête relativement à la moyenne des pays en développement (niveau le plus élevé pour les Petits Etats insulaires en développement (PEID). Les crédits d’adaptation pourraient être utilisés par les pays auprès d’institutions financières accréditées auxquelles ils soumettraient leurs projets ou programmes d’adaptation. |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:2389&r=all |
| By: | Strand,Jon |
| Abstract: | A rainforest can be modeled as a dynamic asset subject to various risks, including risk of fire. Any small part of the forest can be in one of two states: either untouched by forest fire, or already damaged by fire, in which case there is both a local forest loss and increased dryness over a broader area. In this paper, two Bellman equations are constructed, one for unharmed forest and a second for already burnt forest. The analysis solves the two equations for the total expected asset values in each of the two states, assuming that asset returns have a constant growth rate over time. The equations are used for deriving the marginal value of standing (unburnt) rainforest, equivalent to the expected discounted value loss when losing a small additional forest patch. The paper shows that marginal forest value is increased by the additional dryness and forest fire risk that follow from forest fragmentation when additional forest is lost locally. Both forest fires and dryness here serve as ?multipliers? to the basic services return loss, within and outside the forest. The paper also presents a framework for calibrating the impact of the forest fire risk component on forest value. |
| Keywords: | Wildlife Resources,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Climate Change and Environment,Forestry |
| Date: | 2015–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7445&r=all |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice |
| Abstract: | This survey essay reviews over 200 papers in arguing that in order to achieve sustainable and inclusive development, foreign aid should not orient developing countries towards industrialisation in the perspective of Kuznets but in the view of Piketty. Abandoning the former’s view that inequality will fall with progress in industrialisation and placing more emphasis on inequality in foreign aid policy will lead to more sustainable development outcomes. Inter alia: mitigate short-term poverty; address concerns of burgeoning population growth; train recipient governments on inclusive development; fight corruption and mismanagement and; avoid the shortfalls of celebrated Kuznets’ conjectures. We discuss how the essay addresses post-2015 development challenges and provide foreign aid policy instruments with which discussed objectives can be achieved. In summary, the essay provides useful policy measures to avoid past pitfalls. ‘Output may be growing, and yet the mass of the people may be becoming poorer’ (Lewis, 1955). ‘Lewis led all developing countries to water, proverbially speaking, some African countries have so far chosen not to drink’ (Amavilah, 2014). Piketty (2014) has led all developing countries to the stream again and a challenging policy syndrome of our time is how foreign aid can help them to drink. |
| Keywords: | Foreign aid; Piketty; Kuznets; Development |
| JEL: | B20 F35 F50 O10 |
| Date: | 2015–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67307&r=all |