nep-env New Economics Papers
on Environmental Economics
Issue of 2012‒03‒28
forty-five papers chosen by
Francisco S.Ramos
Federal University of Pernambuco

  1. Reconciling Trade and Climate Policies By de Melo, Jaime; Mathys, Nicole Andréa
  2. Environmental and socio-economic consequences of forest carbon payments in Bolivia: Results of the OSIRIS-Bolivia model By Lykke Andersen; Jonah Busch; Elizabeth Curran; Juan Carlos Ledezma; Joaquín Mayorga; Mélissa Bellier
  3. Energy and Climate Change in China By Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele
  4. Tipping points and ambiguity in the economics of climate change By Lemoine, Derek M.; Traeger, Christian P.
  5. Climate and Industrial Policy in an Asymmetric World By Gries, Thomas
  6. Public preferences for climate change policies: Exploratory evidence from Spain By Michael Hanemann; Xavier Labandeira; María L. Loureiro
  7. A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia By Robinson, Sherman; Willenbockel, Dirk
  8. Climate Change and Industrial Policy By Naude, Wim
  9. Adaptation Can Help Mitigation: An Integrated Approach to Post-2012 Climate Policy By Bosello, Francesco; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica
  10. A Stochastic Simulation Approach to Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Bangladesh By Thurlow, James; Yu, Winston
  11. Power Ahead: Meeting Ethiopiaâ..s Energy Needs under a Changing Climate By Block, Paul
  12. Emissions Trading and Social Justice By Farber, Daniel A
  13. Climate policy and innovation in the absence of commitment By Ashokankur Datta; E. Somanathan
  14. Incentives and Stability Of International Climate Coalitions: An Integrated Assessment By Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo
  15. Designing Carbon Taxation Schemes for Automobiles: A Simulation Exercise for Germany By Adamou, Adamos; Clerides, Sofronis; Zachariadis, Theodoros
  16. Cooperation to Reduce Developing Country Emissions By Kerr, Suzi; Millard-Ball, Adam
  17. Current Climate Variability and Future Climate Change: Estimated Growth and Poverty Impacts for Zambia By Thurlow, James; Diao, Xinshen
  18. Risk and aversion in the integrated assessment of climate change By Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.
  19. Law, Sustainability, and the Pursuit of Happiness By Farber, Daniel A.
  20. Measuring the Carbon Content of the South African Economy By Arndt, Channing; Makrelov, Konstantin; Thurlow, James
  21. Economics and Climate Change: Integrated Assessment in a Multi-Region World By Hassler, John; Krusell, Per
  22. Climate Change and Infrastructure Investment in Developing Countries: The Case of Mozambique By Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Thurlow, James
  23. Vehicle Manufacturing Futures in Transportation Life-cycle Assessment By Chester, Mikhail; Horvath, Arpad
  24. Energy consumption, emissions and economic growth in an oil producing country By Ismail, Mohd Adib; Mawar, Murni Yunus
  25. Climate Variability and Agricultural Productivity in MENA region By Drine, Imed
  26. Critical natural capital, ecological resilience and sustainable wetland management: a French case study. By Sylvie FERRARI (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113); Sébastien LAVAUD (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113); Jean-Christophe PEREAU (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113)
  27. Transaction costs and tradable permits: Empirical evidence from the EU emissions trading scheme By Heindl, Peter
  28. Biofuels: Review of Policies and Impacts By Janda, Karel; Kristoufek, Ladislav; Zilberman, David
  29. Global Warming and the Population Externality By Stuart, Charles; Bohn, Henning
  30. Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security in Tanzania By Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Ken; Thurlow, James
  31. Does Air Pollution Matter for Low Birth Weight? By Seonyeong Cho; Choongki Lee; Beomsoo Kim
  32. The influence of individuals’ environmental attitudes and urban design features on their travel patterns in sustainable neighborhoods in the UK By Susilo, Yusak O.; Williams, Katie; Lindsay, Morag; Dair, Carol
  33. The prospects of developing Biofuels in Mali By Dorothée Boccanfuso; Massa Coulibaly; Govinda R. Timilsina; Luc Savard
  34. Natural Disasters and Economic Policy for the Pacific Rim By Ilan Noy
  35. Why uncertainty matters - discounting under intertemporal risk aversion and ambiguity By Traeger, Christian P.
  36. Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania: Past Volatility and Future Climate Change By Ahmed, Syud Amer; Hertel, Thomas W.; Martin, William J.
  37. Trading Off Generations: Infinitely Lived Agent Versus OLG By Schneider, Maik T.; Traeger, Christian P.; Winkler, Ralph
  38. Contingent Valuation of Community Forestry Programs in Ethiopia: Observing Preference Anomalies in Double-Bounded CVM By Dambala Gelo; Steven F Koch
  39. Environmental and Gender Impacts of Land Tenure Regularization in Africa By Ayalew Ali, Daniel; Goldstein, Markus
  40. Global warming and electricity demand in the rapidly growing city of Delhi: A Semi-parametric variable coefficient approach By Eshita Gupta
  41. International trade in natural resources: Practice and policy By Ruta, Michele; Venables, Anthony J
  42. Do Species Interactions and Stochasticity Matter to Optimal Management of Multispecies Fisheries? By Poudel, Diwakar; Sandal, Leif K.; Steinshamn, Stein I.; Kvamsdal, Sturla F.
  43. Sharing Water from many Rivers By Yann Rébillé; Lionel Richefort
  44. Forecasting adoption of ultra-low-emission vehicles using the GHK simulator and Bayes estimates of a multinomial probit model By Daziano, Ricardo A.; Achtnicht, Martin
  45. L'acceptabilité potentielle des voitures électriques : Quelle profitabilité financière pour l'usager privé en Ile-de-France? By Elisabeth Windisch; Fabien Leurent

  1. By: de Melo, Jaime; Mathys, Nicole Andréa
    Abstract: The outcome of the 15th conference of the Parties to the UNFCC showed a shift from a top-down approach with a collective target favoring environmental objectives to a bottom-up accord favoring political feasibility. There is no meaningful binding agreement in sight, also because the global climate regime and the global trade policy regime, represented by the WTO, appear to be on a collision course. Following a review of the challenges ahead, the paper argues that trade will have a second-order contribution to world-wide CO2 emissions. Evidence shows increasing carbon transfers through trade, but the magnitude of carbon leakage effects, likely to be induced by differences in climate mitigation policies, may be less than feared in some circles. Trade policy, however, will play a role in implementing climate mitigation policies in two areas: maintaining an open trading system and hence boosting growth and facilitating technological diffusion, and trade policy as a strategic instrument in negotiations. The paper concludes that an agreement with a few guiding principles and leeway where much initial mitigation would first take place unilaterally or in small groups, as under the early days of the GATT, is the most promising way ahead while preserving an open trading system and environmental integrity.
    Keywords: carbon leakage; climate change; trade policy
    JEL: F18 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2012–01
  2. By: Lykke Andersen (Institute for Advanced Development Studies); Jonah Busch (Conservation International – Arlington, Virginia); Elizabeth Curran (CEEMA-INESAD, San Francisco, California); Juan Carlos Ledezma (Conservation International – Bolivia); Joaquín Mayorga (CEEMA-INESAD, San Francisco, California); Mélissa Bellier (University of Montesquieu Bordeaux IV, France)
    Abstract: Bolivia has significant potential to abate climate change by reducing deforestation. This opportunity presents economic and environmental tradeoffs. While these tradeoffs have been hotly debated, they have as yet been the subject of little quantitative analysis. We introduce the OSIRIS-Bolivia model to provide a quantitative basis for decision-making. OSIRIS-Bolivia is an Excel-based tool for analyzing the potential effects of incentive payments to reduce emissions from deforestation (REDD) in Bolivia. It is based on a spatial econometric model of deforestation in Bolivia during the period 2001-2005, and uses information on forest cover, deforestation rates, geographical conditions, and drivers of deforestation, including agricultural opportunity costs, for more than 120,000 pixels covering the whole country. OSIRIS-Bolivia is based on a partial equilibrium model in which reductions in deforestation in one region reduce the supply of agricultural products to the domestic market, which in turn causes an increase in the price of agricultural products, making conversion of land to agriculture more attractive and thus stimulating an increase in deforestation in other regions (leakage). The model can help answer questions such as: Where in Bolivia are carbon incentive payments most likely to result in reduced deforestation? Who are most likely to benefit from REDD? How much money will it take to reduce deforestation by a given amount? To what extent might transaction costs or preferences for agricultural income undermine the goals of the REDD program?
    Keywords: Deforestation, REDD, environmental impacts, socio-economic impacts
    JEL: Q21 Q56
    Date: 2011–12
  3. By: Carraro, Carlo; Massetti, Emanuele
    Abstract: This paper examines future energy and emissions scenarios in China generated by the Integrated Assessment Model WITCH. A Business-as-Usual scenario is compared with five scenarios in which Greenhouse Gases emissions are taxed, at different levels. The elasticity of China’s emissions is estimated by pooling observations from all scenarios and compared with the elasticity of emissions in OECD countries. China has a higher elasticity than the OECD for a carbon tax lower than 50$ per ton of CO2-eq. For higher taxes, emissions in OECD economies are more elastic than in China. Our best guess indicates that China would need to introduce a tax equal to about 750$ per ton of CO2-eq in 2050 to achieve the Major Economies Forum goal set for mid-century. In our preferred estimates, the discounted cost of following the 2°C trajectory is equal to 5.4% and to 2.7% of GDP in China and the OECD, respectively.
    Keywords: China; climate change; energy; policy
    JEL: F5 Q1 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2012–03
  4. By: Lemoine, Derek M.; Traeger, Christian P.
    Abstract: We model optimal policy when the probability of a tipping point, the welfare change due to a tipping point, and knowledge about a tipping point's trigger all depend on the policy path. Analytic results demonstrate how optimal policy depends on the ability to affect both the probability of a tipping point and also welfare in a post-threshold world. Simulations with a numerical climate-economy model show that possible tipping points in the climate system increase the optimal near-term carbon tax by up to 45% in base case speciffcations. The resulting policy paths lower peak warming by up to 0.5 C compared to a model without possible tipping points. Different types of tipping points have qualitatively different effects on policy, demonstrating the importance of explicitly modeling tipping points' effects on system dynamics. Aversion to ambiguity in the threshold's distribution can amplify or dampen the effect of tipping points on optimal policy, but in our numerical model, ambiguity aversionincreases the optimal carbon tax.
    Keywords: tipping point, threshold, regime shift, ambiguity, climate, uncertainty, integrated assessment, dynamic programming, social cost of carbon, carbon tax, Agricultural and Resource Economics, Environmental Studies, Environmental Science
    Date: 2011–12–28
  5. By: Gries, Thomas
    Abstract: Climate change is a phenomenon leading to randomly distributed disasters around the globe. Due to massive economic and technical asymmetry between the advanced North and the developing South efficient climate and industrial policy is particular difficult. Globally efficient policy would need to equip the South with pollution reducing technologies. However, there is a tradeoff between capital accumulation for consumption growth and low-carbon development. The pollution stock affecting today.s climate was historically accumulated by the North, therefore, the .ability-to-pay principal. and the .polluter pays principle. suggest to allocate the main burden of climate change policy to the advanced economies.
    Keywords: climate change policy, North-South asymmetries, stock pollution, distribution of burdens
    Date: 2011
  6. By: Michael Hanemann; Xavier Labandeira; María L. Loureiro
    Abstract: There is a body of evidence showing public attitudes towards climate change in various countries around the world. In this study, we employ a phone survey in order to assess attitudes towards climate change in Spain and preferences for a green electricity program that reduces CO2 emissions while making electricity more expensive. Results are similar to those obtained in other studies elsewhere, and complement them by showing a strong public support for implementing the green electricity program. In particular, we find that the mean willingness to pay per month and household is about 29.36€ over the current electric bill. Our results also show that younger individuals who live in the Mediterranean region of Spain are more likely to be willing to pay for this green electricity program.
    Keywords: abatement policies, citizen preferences, contingent valuation, green electricity
    Date: 2010–06
  7. By: Robinson, Sherman; Willenbockel, Dirk
    Abstract: This study links a multi-sectoral regionalized dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Ethiopia with a system of country-specific hydrology, crop, road and hydropower engineering models to simulate the economic impacts of climate change towards 2050. In the absence of externally funded policy-driven adaptation investments Ethiopiaâ..s GDP in the 2040s will be up to 10 percent below the counterfactual no-climate change baseline. Suitably scaled adaptation measures could restore aggregate welfare to baseline levels at a cost that is substantially lower than the welfare losses due to climate change.
    Keywords: CGE analysis, global warming, growth, adaptation costs, development
    Date: 2011
  8. By: Naude, Wim
    Abstract: This paper explores the implications of climate change for industrial policy (IP). Five implications are discussed, namely the need for international coordination of IPs; for putting human development, and not emission targets, as the overriding objective of low-carbon IP; of stimulating innovation for energy efficiency, energy diversification, and carbon capture and storage; and for aligning IP with trade policies. Finally the funding needs of low-carbon IPs are discussed, and the importance of private sector funding emphasized.
    Keywords: climate change, sustainable development, industrialization, industrial policy, low-carbon growth
    Date: 2011
  9. By: Bosello, Francesco; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica
    Abstract: The latest round of international negotiations in Copenhagen led to a set of commitments on emission reduction which are unlikely to stabilise global warming below or around 2°C. As a consequence, in the absence of additional ambitious policy measures, adaptation will be needed to address climate related damages. What is the role of adaptation in this setting? How is it optimally allocated across regions and time? To address these questions, this paper analyses the optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation expenditures in a cost-effective setting in which countries cooperate to achieve a long-term stabilisation target (550 CO2-eq). It uses an Integrated Assessment Model (AD-WITCH) that describes the relationships between different adaptation modes (reactive and anticipatory), mitigation, and capacity building to analyse the optimal portfolio of adaptation measures. Results show the optimal intertemporal distribution of climate policy measures is characterised by early investments in mitigation followed by large adaptation expenditures a few decades later. Hence, the possibility to adapt does not justify postponing mitigation, although it reduces its costs.
    Keywords: adaptation; climate change impacts; integrated assessment model; mitigation
    JEL: Q43 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2012–03
  10. By: Thurlow, James; Yu, Winston
    Abstract: Climate change assessments often inadequately address uncertainty when estimating damages. Using a dynamic economy-wide model of Bangladesh, we estimate and decompose damages from historical climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change. Our stochastic simulation approach avoids biases caused by non-linear damage functions and fixed occurrences of extreme events in historical data. Using ten climate projections, we find that future anthropogenic climate change damages until 2050 are, on average, one-fifth of those from historical climate variability. Climate change also alters the temporal distribution of damages and slows Bangladeshâ..s long- run shift (adaptation) into dry (winter) season rice production.
    Keywords: climate change, uncertainty, stochastic simulation, CGE model, agriculture, Bangladesh
    Date: 2011
  11. By: Block, Paul
    Abstract: Ethiopia is powering ahead with an ambitious energy development strategy, highly reliant on abundant hydropower potential. A changing climate, including uncertain water supply, however, may pose a salient challenge to meeting expected targets. Bridging the modeling gaps between climate, energy, and economics, and effectively transforming climate changes into economic measures, is an emerging inter-disciplinary field as nations attempt to position themselves for an uncertain future. Such a framework is adopted here to assess energy production and adaptation costs for four climate change scenarios over 2010â..49. Scenarios that favor a drying trend country-wide may lead to losses of 130â..200 terawatt hours over the 40-year period, translating to adaptation costs of US$2â..4 billion, compared to a no climate change scenario. Even given these potential losses, energy development utilizing hydropower appears economically reasonable from this deterministic, sector-independent evaluation. This development is desperately needed, independent of future climate change trends, with the hope of appreciably reducing vulnerability to variability.
    Keywords: Ethiopia, energy development, hydropower, climate change, economics
    Date: 2011
  12. By: Farber, Daniel A
    Abstract: Cap and trade is controversial in part because of claims that it is unjust, an issue that was highlighted by recent litigation against California’s proposed carbon market. This essay considers an array of fairness issues relating to cap and trade. In terms of fairness to industry, the conclusion is that distributing free allowances overcompensates firms for the cost of compliance, assuming any compensation is warranted. Industry should not receive, in effect, ownership of the atmosphere at the expense of the public. Environmental justice advocates argue that cap-and-trade systems promote hotspots and encourage dirtier, older plants to continue operating to the detriment of some communities. Designers of cap-and-trade systems should be alert to possible hotspots, particularly in disadvantaged communities. Little reason exists, however, to believe that any such hotspots are systematically linked with disadvantage. Finally, any regulation of emissions raises costs, with a disproportionate impact on low-income consumers. This effect can be greatly ameliorated through adroit use of revenue from auctions. The bottom line is that fairness issues are not a deal-breaker for cap and trade, but do deserve thoughtful consideration in designing a system.
    Keywords: Administrative Law, Economics, Energy and Utilities Law, Environmental Law, Social Welfare, Administrative Law, Energy Law, Environmental Law, Law and Economics, Social Welfare Law
    Date: 2011–09–20
  13. By: Ashokankur Datta (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi); E. Somanathan (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi)
    Abstract: It is well-recognized that new technology is a crucial part of any solution to the problem of climate change. But since investments in research and development take time to mature, price and quantity instruments, i.e., carbon taxes and cap-and-trade, run into a commitment problem. We assume that the government cannot commit to the level of a policy instrument in advance, but sets the level to be optimal ex-post. Under these assumptions, we show that when the supply curve of dirty (emission-producing) energy is flat, then an emissions tax is ineffective in promoting R & D into green (emission-free) energy while an emissions quota (i.e., cap and trade) can be effective. A subsidy to R & D is welfare-reducing. More realistically, when the supply curve of dirty energy is upward-sloping, then both tax and quota regimes can be effective in promoting R & D into emission-free technology. In this case, a tax generally induces more R & D than a quota. When the supply curve is sufficiently steep compared to the demand curve, a subsidy to R & D can expand the range of parameter values under which R & D occurs and this can be welfare-improving. If there is sufficient uncertainty about whether a climate policy will be adopted ex-post, then subsidizing R & D is an even more attractive policy option since a welfare-improving subsidy to R & D exists under a wider range of circumstances.
    Date: 2010–12
  14. By: Bosetti, Valentina; Carraro, Carlo; De Cian, Enrica; Massetti, Emanuele; Tavoni, Massimo
    Abstract: This paper analyses the incentives to participate in and the stability of international climate coalitions. Using the integrated assessment model WITCH, the analysis of coalitions’ profitability and stability is performed under alternative assumptions concerning the pure rate of time preference, the social welfare aggregator and the extent of climate damages. We focus on the profitability, stability, and 'potential stability' of a number of coalitions which are 'potentially effective' in reducing emissions. We find that only the grand coalition under a specific sets of assumptions finds it optimal to stabilise GHG concentration below 550 ppm CO2-eq. However, the grand coalition is found not to be stable, not even 'potentially stable' even through an adequate set of transfers. However, there exist potentially stable coalitions, but of smaller size, which are also potentially environmentally effective. Depending on the assumptions made, they could achieve up to 600 ppm CO2-eq. More ambitious targets lead to the collapse of the coalition.
    Keywords: Climate coalitions; Climate policy; Free riding; Game theory
    JEL: C68 C72 D58 Q54
    Date: 2012–02
  15. By: Adamou, Adamos; Clerides, Sofronis; Zachariadis, Theodoros
    Abstract: Vehicle taxation based on CO2 emissions is increasingly being adopted worldwide in order to shift consumer purchases to low-carbon cars, yet little is known about the effectiveness and overall economic impact of these schemes. We focus on feebate schemes, which impose a fee on high-carbon vehicles and give a rebate to purchasers of low-carbon automobiles. We estimate a discrete choice model of demand for automobiles in Germany and simulate the impact of alternative feebate schemes on emissions, consumer welfare, public revenues and firm profits. The analysis shows that a well-designed scheme can lead to emission reductions without reducing overall welfare.
    Keywords: carbon taxation; CO2 emissions; feebates; German automobile market
    JEL: L92 Q52 Q58
    Date: 2012–01
  16. By: Kerr, Suzi (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Millard-Ball, Adam (McGill University)
    Abstract: Without effective developing country participation in climate mitigation it will be impossible to meet global concentration and climate change targets. However, developing countries are unwilling and, in many cases, unable to bear the mitigation cost alone. They need huge transfers of resources – financial, knowledge, technology, and capability – from industrialised countries. In this paper, we evaluate instruments that can induce such resource transfers, including tradable credits, mitigation funds and results-based agreements. We identify key constraints that affect the efficiency and political potential of different instruments, including two-sided private information leading to adverse selection, moral hazard and challenging negotiations; incomplete contracts leading to under-investment; and high levels of uncertainty about emissions paths and mitigation potential. We consider evidence on the poor performance of current approaches to funding developing country mitigation – primarily purchasing offsets through the Clean Development Mechanism – and explore to what extent other approaches can address problems with offsets. We emphasise the wide spectrum of situations in developing countries and suggest that solutions also need to be differentiated and that no one policy will suffice: some policies will be complements, while others are substitutes. We conclude by identifying research needs and proposing a straw man to broaden the range of “contracting” options considered.
    Keywords: Climate; finance; cap and trade; CDM; clean development mechanism; developing countries; additionality; international agreements; Durban Platform
    JEL: Q54 Q56 Q58 H87
    Date: 2012–03
  17. By: Thurlow, James; Diao, Xinshen
    Abstract: Economy-wide and hydrological-crop models are combined to estimate and compare the economic impacts of current climate variability and future anthropogenic climate change in Zambia. Accounting for uncertainty, simulation results indicate that, on average, current variability reduces gross domestic product by four percent over a ten-year period and pulls over two percent of the population below the poverty line. Socio-economic impacts are much larger during major drought years, thus underscoring the importance of extreme weather events in determining climate damages. Three climate change scenarios are simulated based on projections for 2025. Results indicate that, in the worst case scenario, damages caused by climate change are half the size of those from current variability. We conclude that current climate variability, rather than climate change, will remain the more binding constraint on economic development in Zambia, at least over the next few decades.
    Keywords: climate change, weather variability, economic growth, poverty, Zambia
    Date: 2011
  18. By: Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.
    Abstract: We analyze the impact of damage uncertainty on optimal mitigation policies in the integrated assessment of climate change. Usually, these models analyzeuncertainty by averaging deterministic paths. In contrast, we build a consistentmodel deriving optimal policy rules under persistent uncertainty. For this purpose,we construct a close relative of the DICE model in a recursive dynamic programming framework. Our recursive approach allows us to disentangle effects of risk, risk aversion, and aversion to intertemporal substitution. We analyze different ways how damage uncertainty can affect the DICE equations. We compare the optimal policies to those resulting from the wide-spread ex-ante uncertainty approach averaging deterministic paths.
    Keywords: climate change, uncertainty, integrated assessment, risk aversion, intertemporal substitution, recursive utility, dynamic programming, Agricultural and Resource Economics, Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related Sciences, Natural Resources and Conservation
    Date: 2011–11–01
  19. By: Farber, Daniel A.
    Abstract: Environmental law focuses on regulating the production of energy and goods. Less attention has been given to reducing the environmental footprint of consumption. This Article brings together several strands of research, including psychological and economic research on subjective wellbeing; research on energy efficiency; writings by urban planners on sustainable communities; and recent work on individual behavior and sustainability. The conclusion, in a nutshell, is that changes in consumption of goods and energy, assisted by improvements in urban design and transportation infrastructure, can significantly reduce energy use and environmental harm. A variety of legal tools are available to promote these changes. Remarkably, many of the steps needed for sustainability can actually improve quality of life, adding to individual satisfaction. Thus, sustainability for society and the pursuit of individual happiness need not be at odds.
    Keywords: Administrative Law; Economics; Energy and Utilities Law; Environmental Law; Land Use Planning; Law and Economics; Natural Resources Law; Oil, Gas, and Mineral Law; Public Law and Legal Theory; Water Law, Environmental Law
    Date: 2011–08–30
  20. By: Arndt, Channing; Makrelov, Konstantin; Thurlow, James
    Abstract: We estimate the carbon intensity of industries, products, and households in South Africa. Direct and indirect carbon usage is measured using multiplier methods that capture inter-industry linkages and multi-product supply chains. Carbon intensity is found to be high for exports but low for major employing sectors. Middle-income households are the most carbon-intensive consumers. These results suggest that carbon pricing policies (without border tax adjustments) would adversely affect export earnings, but should not disproportionately hurt workers or poorer households. 7per cent of emissions arise though marketing margins, implying that carbon pricing should be accompanied by supporting public policies and investments.
    Keywords: greenhouse gas emissions, carbon use, input-output analysis, South Africa
    Date: 2011
  21. By: Hassler, John; Krusell, Per
    Abstract: This paper develops a model that integrates the climate and the global economy---an integrated assessment model---with which different policy scenarios can be analyzed and compared. The model is a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium setup with a continuum of regions. Thus, it is a full stochastic general-equilibrium version of RICE, Nordhaus's pioneering multi-region integrated assessment model. Like RICE, our model features traded fossil fuel but otherwise has no markets across regions---there is no insurance nor any intertemporal trade across them. The extreme form of market incompleteness is not fully realistic but arguably not a decent approximation of reality. Its major advantage is that, along with a set of reasonable assumptions on preferences, technology, and nature, it allows a closed-form model solution. We use the model to assess the welfare consequences of carbon taxes that differ across as well as within oil-consuming and -producing regions. We show that, surprisingly, only taxes on oil producers can improve the climate: taxes on oil consumers have no effect at all. The calibrated model suggests large differences in views on climate policy across regions.
    Keywords: climate; dynamic; integrated assessment; regional; stochastic
    JEL: H23 O44 Q0
    Date: 2012–01
  22. By: Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Thurlow, James
    Abstract: Climate change may damage road infrastructure to the potential detriment of economic growth, particularly in developing countries. To quantitatively assess climate changeâ..s consequences, we construct a climate-infrastructure model based on stressor-response relationships and link this to a recursive dynamic economy-wide modelto estimate and compare road damages to other climate change impact channels. We apply this framework to Mozambiqueand simulate four future climate scenarios. Our results indicate that climate change through 2050 is likely to place a drag on economic growth and development prospects. The economic implications of climate change appear to become more pronounced from about 2030. Nevertheless, the implications are not so strong as to drastically diminish development prospects. An adaptation policy of gradual evolution towards road designs that accommodate higher temperatures and follows rainfall trends (wetter or dryer) improves outcomes. At the same time, a generalized policy of upgrading all roads does not appear to be merited at this time. Our findings suggest that impact assessments should include the damages on long-run assets, such as infrastructure, imposed by climate change.
    Keywords: climate change, infrastructure vulnerability, productivity, economic growth, Mozambique
    Date: 2011
  23. By: Chester, Mikhail; Horvath, Arpad
    Abstract: Vehicle manufacturing effects are critical life-cycle components in the total costs of vehicle travel and future manufacturing processes should be evaluated for travel forecasts. With efforts to introduce lightweight materials, increased fuel economy, and new technologies such as electric vehicles, understanding the energy and environmental effects of these expected vehicles is critical. Current vehicle manufacturing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions are summarized from existing research for passenger (conventional gasoline vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, aircraft, high-speed rail) and freight (trucks, trains, and ocean going vessels) modes. Future vehicle manufacturing effects are then determined incorporating the aforementioned modes as well as plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles.
    Keywords: Engineering, Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering
    Date: 2011–08–23
  24. By: Ismail, Mohd Adib; Mawar, Murni Yunus
    Abstract: This study is aimed to examine the causal relationship between economic growth, energy consumption and emissions in Bahrain. As required by the Kyoto Protocol where Bahrain has ratified in 2006, it is to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study uses Toda and Yamamoto’s (1995) approach to investigate the relationship. The finding regarding the relationship is crucial as it will justify appropriate steps should be taken by Bahrain to reduce emissions without affecting her national output. Using annual data for a period from 1980 to 2007, this study finds that there are unidirectional relationship between output, capital, energy use, labor and emissions. It also finds that there is causality running from output to capital, energy use and emissions, but not vice versa. Therefore, this study suggests emissions cut cannot be simply taken without sacrificing the economy. On the other hand, replacing capitals with greener capitals is the best choice as it reduces emissions through energy efficiency and less GHG emissions.
    Keywords: Economic growth; emission; greenhouse gas; energy; Bahrain
    JEL: Q50 Q40 O40 Q43
    Date: 2012–02
  25. By: Drine, Imed
    Abstract: The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is particularly vulnerable to climate change. The severity of climate-change impacts is related to the geographic and ecological particularity of the region. The majority of countries in the MENA region belong to the hydraulic poor regions located between the tempered region of the Northern hemisphere and the inter-tropical region, characterized by scarcity and spatial and temporal rainfall variability. This paper describes, first, the interaction between climate changes, agriculture and food security in the MENA region. Second, an empirical model is used to test the impact of climate variability on agricultural productivity. Our results suggest that lower precipitation, heat waves and drought are the main causes of decreasing agricultural productivity in the region.
    Keywords: agricultural productivity, climate change, MENA region, Malmquist productivity
    Date: 2011
  26. By: Sylvie FERRARI (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113); Sébastien LAVAUD (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113); Jean-Christophe PEREAU (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113)
    Abstract: This paper aims at building an analytical economic framework to address the functioning of an ecosystem using a functional approach of critical natural capital while accounting for the ecological resilience property. This framework is then operationalised to study the sustainability of wetlands ecosystems in the Gironde Estuary region (France).
    Keywords: criticality, wetlands, ecological resilience, functionalities, ecological services, ecosystem, sustainability, critical natural capital.
    JEL: Q01 Q56 Q57
    Date: 2012
  27. By: Heindl, Peter
    Abstract: In this paper, transaction costs in the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) are examined empirically based on survey data from German companies. Transaction costs from measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) of emissions, permit trading and general informational costs are considered. Transaction costs from MRV and permit trading are of non-linear form and dependent on annual emission and trading volumes based on OLS and nonparametric estimation. As a consequence of non-linear transaction costs, welfare losses occur compared to a first-best setup under zero transaction costs. In practice, smaller emitters will emit less (abate more) compared to larger emitters and vice versa due to economies of scale in the management of emissions trading. The results further imply that optimal firm size might be influenced by transaction costs in the EU ETS because of relatively high average transaction costs amongst smaller emitters. Overall annual transaction costs in the EU ETS in Germany are estimated to be EUR 8.7 million. --
    Keywords: Emissions Trading,Transaction Costs,EU ETS
    JEL: Q52 H23 D23
    Date: 2012
  28. By: Janda, Karel; Kristoufek, Ladislav; Zilberman, David
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the environmental, economical, and policy considerations related to biofuels. While the biofuel production and consumption exhibited significant increase over the first decade of the new millennium, this and further increases in biofuel production are driven primarily by government policies. Currently available first generation biofuels are with a few exceptions not economically viable in the absence of fiscal incentives or high oil prices. Also the environmental impacts of biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuels are quite ambiguous. The review of the most recent economic models dealing with biofuels and their economic impacts provides a distinction between structural and reduced form models. The review ofreduced models is structured toward the time series analysis approach to thedependencies between prices of feedstock, biofuels, and fossil fuels.
    Keywords: Agriculture, Agriculture Operations, and Related Sciences, biofuels, ethanol, biodiesel
    Date: 2011–10–23
  29. By: Stuart, Charles; Bohn, Henning
    Abstract: We calculate the harm a birth imposes on others when greenhouse gas emissions are a problem and a cap limits emissions damage. This negative population externality, which equals the corrective Pigovian tax on having a child, is substantial in calibrations. In our base case, the Pigovian tax is 21 percent of a parent's lifetime income in steady state and 5 percent of lifetime income immediately after imposition of a cap, per child. The optimal population in steady state, which maximizes utility taking account of the externality, is about one quarter of the population households would choose voluntarily
    Keywords: population externality, Pigovian tax, emissions cap, endogenous fertility, population growth, economic growth, optimal population, calibrated optimal child tax, greenhouse gas emissions, global warming, Economic Theory, Growth and Development, Public Economics
    Date: 2011–04–22
  30. By: Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Ken; Thurlow, James
    Abstract: The consequences of climate change for agriculture and food security in developing countries are of serious concern. Due to their reliance on rain-fed agriculture both as a source of income and consumption, many low-income countries are generally considered to be most vulnerable to climate change. Here, we estimate the impact of climate change on food security in Tanzania. Representative climate projections are used in calibrated crop models to predict crop yield changes for 110 districts in Tanzania. These results are in turn imposed on a highly-disaggregated, dynamic economy-wide model of Tanzania. We find that, relative to a no climate change baseline and considering domestic agricultural production as the principal channel of impact, food security in Tanzania appears likely to deteriorate as a consequence of climate change. The analysis points to a high degree of diversity of outcomes (including some favourable outcomes) across climate scenarios, sectors, and regions. The economic modelling indicates that markets have the potential to smooth outcomes on households across regions and income groups, though noteworthy differences in impacts across households persist both by region and by income category.
    Keywords: climate change; agriculture; food security; crop model; CGE model; Tanzania
    Date: 2011
  31. By: Seonyeong Cho; Choongki Lee; Beomsoo Kim (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea)
    Abstract: There is growing concern that air pollution may impact the health of newborns. This study examines this issue by considering overtime variation generated by exogenous changes in the pollution level in Korea in early 2000, when some part of Korea experienced huge drop in air pollution. We matched the census of all births from 1998 to 2008 and air pollution data in mother¡¯s residence county level. For air pollutants, we considered carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and ozone levels. The mother¡¯s exposure to one ozone level above 0.12 ppm per hour during the first trimester increased the probability of low birth weight by 0.4 percentage point (0.08% of the sample mean). On the other hand, the mother¡¯s exposure to carbon monoxide or sulfur dioxide during the third trimester led to a significant but modest increase in the probability of low birth weight. The results indicate that the effects of an air pollutant on the probability of low birth weight vary according to wh en the mother is exposed to the pollutant during the pregnancy.
    Keywords: Air Pollution, Ozone, Carbon Monoxide, Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Dioxide, Low Birth Weight
    Date: 2012
  32. By: Susilo, Yusak O. (Royal Institute of Technology (KTH)); Williams, Katie (University of the West of England (UWE)); Lindsay, Morag (Oxford Brookes University); Dair, Carol (Oxford Brookes University)
    Abstract: This paper explores the influence of individuals’ environmental attitudes and urban design features on travel behavior, including mode choice. It uses data from residents of 13 new neighborhood UK developments designed to support sustainable travel. It is found that almost all respondents were concerned about environmental issues, but their views did not necessarily ‘match’ their travel behavior. Individuals’ environmental concerns only had a strong relationship with walking within and near their neighborhood, but not with cycling or public transport use. Residents’ car availability reduced public transport trips, walking and cycling. The influence of urban design features on travel behaviors was mixed, higher incidences of walking in denser, mixed and more permeable developments were not found and nor did residents own fewer cars than the population as a whole. Residents did, however, make more sustainable commuting trips than the population in general. Sustainable modes of travel were related to urban design features including secured bike storage, high connectivity of the neighborhoods to the nearby area, natural surveillance, high quality public realm and traffic calming. Likewise the provision of facilities within and nearby the development encouraged high levels of walking.
    Keywords: Sustainable urban design; Travel patterns; Attitudes and beliefs; Sustainable travel modes
    JEL: O18 O21 O44 R21 R28 R31 R42 R58 Z10
    Date: 2012–02–02
  33. By: Dorothée Boccanfuso (Département d’économique and GRÉDI, Université de Sherbrooke); Massa Coulibaly (GREAT - Groupe de recherche en économie appliquée et théorique); Govinda R. Timilsina (The World Bank); Luc Savard (Département d’économique and GRÉDI, Université de Sherbrooke)
    Abstract: A biofuels race has emerged because of the increasing cost of oil. In parallel, a growing concern for environmental protection has been observed. The expansion of biofuel production has occurs concurrently with raising prices of the foodstuffs. Developing countries like Mali have seen this situation as an opportunity to reduce its dependency on oil imports and generate gains from biofuel production. This development strategy could put pressure on food security in the country. The government of Mali has developed a strategy to promote biofuels production particularly with jatropha. The economic and environmental stakes around this strategy are far from being negligible. In this paper, we provide an analysis of this sector with opportunities and risk of developing this sector.
    Keywords: Biofuels, agriculture
    JEL: D58 D31 I32 Q17
    Date: 2012–02
  34. By: Ilan Noy (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa)
    Abstract: We survey the history of natural disasters in the Pacific Rim, and the region's vulnerabilities. We also discuss the extent of our knowledge about the short- and long-term economic impacts of these disasters, and prevention, mitigation and post-disaster policies that may be implemented.
    Keywords: Natural disasters, Climate change, Growth, Economic impact, Pacific Rim
    JEL: O11 O40 Q54
    Date: 2012–01–01
  35. By: Traeger, Christian P.
    Abstract: Uncertainty has an almost negligible impact on project value in the economicstandard model. I show that a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty and uncertainty attitude changes this picture fundamentally. The analysis relies on the discount rate, which is the crucial determinant in balancing immediate costs against future benefits and the single most important determinant of optimal mitigation  policies in the integrated assessment of climate change. The paper examines two shortcomings in the recent debate and the current models addressing climate change assessment. First, removing an implicit assumption of (intertemporal) risk neutrality reduces the growth effect in social discounting and significantly amplifies the importance of risk and correlation. Second, debate and models largely overlook the difference in attitude with respect to risk and with respect to non-risk uncertainty. The paper derives the resulting changes of the risk-free and the stochastic social discount rate and points out the importance of even thin tailed uncertainty for climate change evaluation. It discusses combinations ofuncertainty and correlation that reduce the social discount rate to pure preference. In a theoretical contribution, the paper extends the smooth ambiguity model by providing a threefold disentanglement between, risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, and the propensityto smooth consumption over time.
    Keywords: ambiguity, climate change, cost benefit analysis, discounting, intertemporal substitutability, risk aversion, uncertainty, Agricultural and Resource Economics, Natural Resources and Conservation
    Date: 2012–01–26
  36. By: Ahmed, Syud Amer; Hertel, Thomas W.; Martin, William J.
    Abstract: Given global heterogeneity in climate-induced agricultural variability, Tanzania has the potential to substantially increase its maize exports to other countries. If global maize production is lower than usual due to supply shocks in major exporting regions, Tanzania may be able to export more maize at higher prices, even if it also experiences below-trend productivity. Diverse destinations for exports can allow for enhanced trading opportunities when negative supply shocks affect the partnersâ.. usual import sources. Future climate predictions suggest that some of Tanzaniaâ..s trading partners will experience severe dry conditions that may reduce agricultural production in years when Tanzania is only mildly affected. Tanzania could thus export grain to countries as climate change increases the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in other countries while simultaneously decreasing the likelihood of severe precipitation deficits in Tanzania. Trade restrictions, like export bans, prevent Tanzania from taking advantage of these opportunities, foregoing significant economic benefits.
    Keywords: climate change, volatility, Tanzania, trade, export ban, agriculture
    Date: 2011
  37. By: Schneider, Maik T.; Traeger, Christian P.; Winkler, Ralph
    Abstract: The prevailing literature discusses intergenerational trade-offs in climatechange predominantly in terms of the Ramsey equation relying on the infinitelylived agent model. We discuss these trade-offs in a continuous time OLG framework and relate our results to the infinitely lived agent setting. We identify three shortcomings of the latter: First, underlying normative assumptions about social preferences cannot be deduced unambiguously. Second, the distribution among generations living at the same time cannot be captured. Third, the optimal solution may not be implementable in overlapping generations market economies.
    Keywords: climate change, intergenerational equity, overlapping generations, time preference, discounting, infinitely lived agents, Agricultural and Resource Economics, Natural Resources and Conservation
    Date: 2012–01–26
  38. By: Dambala Gelo; Steven F Koch
    Abstract: This study examines the potential for anomalous response behaviour effects within the context of double-bounded contingent valuation applied to community forestry programs in rural Ethiopia. Anomalous responses considered include shift effects, framing effects, anchoring effects, and others closely related to these. The results confirmed the presence of anomalous responses, especially shift and framing effects; anchoring effects are not uncovered. After controlling for these biases, the analysed community forestry program is shown to offer a welfare gain ranging from Ethiopian Birr (ETB) 20.14 to 22.80 annually, per household. In addition to uncovering limited welfare benefits, the results raise questions regarding the validity of previous double-bounded contingent valuation welfare estimates in developing countries, suggesting that future studies should control for incentive incompatibility and framing effects bias.
    Keywords: Double-bounded contingent valuation, shift bias, anchoring bias
    JEL: Q26 Q23 Q28
    Date: 2012
  39. By: Ayalew Ali, Daniel; Goldstein, Markus
    Abstract: Although recent developments greatly increased interest in African land tenure, few models to address these issues at the required scale have been identified or evaluated. Rwanda.s nation-wide land tenure regularization programme is of great interest. A discontinuity design with spatial fixed effects that is used to evaluate the pilot for this programme points to three main effects; namely, (i) improved land access for legally married women and better recordation of inheritance rights; (ii) significant and large investment impacts that are particularly pronounced for women; and (iii) a reduction in land market activity rather than distress sales. Implications for programme design and policy are discussed.
    Keywords: gender, agricultural investment, land administration, Rwanda
    Date: 2011
  40. By: Eshita Gupta (Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi; Institute of Economic Growth)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the climate sensitivity of electricity demand by examining the impact of apparent temperature on electricity demand in Delhi using daily data on electricity demand for the period 2000-09. The study adopts a semi-parametric variable coefficient model in order to investigate the non-linear time-varying impact of climatic factors on electricity demand...
    Date: 2012–02
  41. By: Ruta, Michele; Venables, Anthony J
    Abstract: Natural resources account for 20% of world trade, and dominate the exports of many countries. Policy is used to manipulate both international and domestic prices of resources, yet this policy is largely outside the disciplines of the WTO. The instruments used include export taxes, price controls, production quotas, and domestic producer and consumer taxes (equivalent to trade taxes if no domestic production is possible). We review the literature, and argue that the policy equilibrium is inefficient. This inefficiency is exacerbated by market failure in long run contracts for exploration and development of natural resources. Properly coordinated policy reforms offer an avenue to resource exporting and importing countries to overcome these inefficiencies and obtain mutual gains.
    Keywords: export tax; natural resources; OPEC; tariff escalation; terms of trade; trade; WTO
    JEL: F1 F13 Q3
    Date: 2012–03
  42. By: Poudel, Diwakar (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Sandal, Leif K. (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Steinshamn, Stein I. (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Kvamsdal, Sturla F. (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: The multispecies fisheries management looks at a bigger picture in addressing the long-term consequences of present decisions. This implies an ecosystem management that includes a number of species and their physical, biological and economic interactions. These interactions make the growth of resources stochastic and increase complexity in understanding stock dynamics and optimal catch for such a stochastic and multiple stocks´ system. To address the issue of identifying optimal catch of stochastically growing multi stocks, we have formulated and applied a time-continuous stochastic model. The model contributes to multispecies bioeconomic management of marine ecosystems. An application of model in a predator-prey relationship in Barent Sea revealed that the optimal catch for stochastically growing stocks in a multispecies interaction model is different from the deterministic model.
    Keywords: Bioeconomic model; multispecies; species interaction; time-continuous stochasticity
    JEL: Q20 Q22
    Date: 2012–01–30
  43. By: Yann Rébillé (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Université de Nantes : EA4272); Lionel Richefort (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Université de Nantes : EA4272)
    Abstract: This paper studies the problem of non-cooperative water allocation between heterogeneous communities embodied in an acyclic network of water sources. The extraction activity of a community has a negative impact on the extraction activity of its direct successors: it reduces the intensity of water flows entering their source, and thus, increase their convex costs of water extraction. We show that the equilibrium profile is unique and may be expressed through complementarity and substitutability effects which sharacterize the incoming centrality of a community in the network of sources. For each community, the efficient activity is a combination of two opposite network effects, the incoming centrality and the outcoming centrality. Then, the optimal tax rate imposed to a community depends on the network structure, and reflects both the marginal damages and the marginal benefits this community delivers to other communities at the efficient extraction activity profile.
    Keywords: flowing water ; network of sources ; equilibrium effects, efficiency effects ; optimal tax
    Date: 2012–03–14
  44. By: Daziano, Ricardo A.; Achtnicht, Martin
    Abstract: In this paper we use Bayes estimates of a multinomial probit model with fully flexible substitution patterns to forecast consumer response to ultra-low-emission vehicles. In this empirical application of the probit Gibbs sampler, we use stated-preference data on vehicle choice from a Germany-wide survey of potential light-duty-vehicle buyers using computer-assisted personal interviewing. We show that Bayesian estimation of a multinomial probit model with a full covariance matrix is feasible for this medium-scale problem. Using the posterior distribution of the parameters of the vehicle choice model as well as the GHK simulator we derive the choice probabilities of the different alternatives. We first show that the Bayes point estimates of the market shares reproduce the observed values. Then, we define a base scenario of vehicle attributes that aims at representing an average of the current vehicle choice situation in Germany. Consumer response to qualitative changes in the base scenario is subsequently studied. In particular, we analyze the effect of increasing the network of service stations for charging electric vehicles as well as for refueling hydrogen. The result is the posterior distribution of the choice probabilities that represent adoption of the energy-effcient technologies. --
    Keywords: Discrete choice models,Bayesian econometrics,Low emission vehicles,Charging infrastructure
    JEL: C25 D12 Q42
    Date: 2012
  45. By: Elisabeth Windisch (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - Université Paris Est Marne-la-Vallée - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - IFSTTAR UMR-T9404); Fabien Leurent (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - Université Paris Est Marne-la-Vallée - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - IFSTTAR UMR-T9404)
    Abstract: Depuis quelques années, le véhicule électrique (VE) suscite un très important regain d'intérêt, au titre de divers enjeux d'ordre aussi bien écologique (qualité de l'air, bruit, émissions de gaz à effet de serre) qu'économique, pour revitaliser l'industrie automobile et à travers elle la production économique générale, ou encor énergétique, pour réduire la dépendance aux carburants importés. C'est pourquoi les pouvoirs publics promeuvent le développement de la mobilité électrique. Les acheteurs de VE bénéficient dès aujourd'hui de réductions de taxes et de fortes subventions à l'achat. Les fournisseurs de l'infrastructure de recharge profitent de nouvelles réglementations et de subventions de la part de l'Etat. Des prévisions de la demande en VE sont absolument nécessaires pour anticiper les économies d'échelle dans l'industrie et déterminer le prix de vente par voiture, ainsi que pour dimensionner les consommations de ressources. Leur élaboration est soumise à la complexité du système de mobilité électrique, dont les circonstances subissent une évolution permanente et parfois peu prévisible (ex. en ce qui concerne le prix du carburant) ; et aussi parce que la demande en véhicules dépendra fortement des politiques publiques. Les études antérieures qui explorent la demande en VE masquent souvent cette complexité systémique. L'interrelation entre les politiques publiques et la demande n'est pas prise en compte. Des modèles agrégés sont conçus pour des régions vastes (comme tout un pays) et servent ensuite à établir des prévisions plutôt contestables. Des paramètres désagrégés, tels que les caractéristiques des ménages ou du territoire analysé, restent bien souvent ignorés, alors qu'ils jouent un rôle important dans le bilan financier pour un ménage. Cette étude a pour but de mieux comprendre l'impact des paramètres désagrégés sur le choix d'équipement des ménages. Nous nous plaçons dans la perspective d'un ménage particulier résidant en Ile-de-France, et nous menons une analyse économique par type de véhicule, thermique ou électrique, en termes de coûts totaux de détention. Le modèle est conçu sous une forme flexible et permet l'analyse de scénarios divers. Nous investiguons les impacts de paramètres désagrégés, de politiques publiques et du développement de marché. De plus, chaque scénario fait l'objet d'une analyse de " point mort ": quel est le kilométrage annuel, et/ou le prix de carburant, nécessaire pour rendre le VE plus avantageux que son concurrent thermique ? Les résultats démontrent l'importance déterminante des paramètres désagrégés dans la prospection de la demande.
    Date: 2012–02–01

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