nep-env New Economics Papers
on Environmental Economics
Issue of 2010‒04‒24
twelve papers chosen by
Francisco S.Ramos
Federal University of Pernambuco

  1. Modeling the Effects of Pasture Expansion and Yield Increase on Emissions from Land-Use Change By Jerome Dumortier; Dermot J. Hayes; Miguel Carriquiry; Fengxia Dong; Xiaodong Du; Amani Elobeid; Jacinto F. Fabiosa; Kranti Mulik
  2. Climate Change Impacts on Global Agriculture By Alvaro Calzadilla; Katrin Rehdanz; Richard Betts; Pete Falloon; Andy Wiltshire; Richard S.J. Tol
  3. Deforestation and multinational companies: a conceptual note By Digdowiseiso, Kumba
  4. Environmental Governance in Hungary - Rural Development Policies and Social Learning during the Implementation of EU Agri-Environmental Policies - A Case Study By Guszt v Nemes
  5. A Nuclear Future? UK Government Policy and the Role of the Market? By Newbery, D.
  6. CO2 emissions from international shipping: Brown owners versus brown flags By Pierre Cariou; François-Charles Wolff
  7. Getting Cars Off the Road: The Cost-Effectiveness of an Episodic Pollution Control Program By Maureen L. Cropper; Yi Jiang; Anna Alberini; Patrick Baur
  8. Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis in the EU ETS Markets for the CO2 Emission Allowances: Evidence from Phase I and Phase II By Amélie Charles; Olivier Darné; Jessica Fouilloux
  9. Welfare Implications of Leadership in a Resource Market Under Bilateral Monopoly By Kenji Fujiwara; Ngo Van Long
  10. A Semiparametric Panel Model for Unbalanced Data with Application to Climate Change in the United Kingdom By Atak, Alev; Linton, Oliver B.; Xiao, Zhijie
  11. Development based on commodity revenues By Alexander Plekhanov; Sergei Guriev; Konstantin Sonin
  12. Technical Efï¬ciency, Farm Size and Tropical Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazonian Forest By Sébastien MARCHAND

  1. By: Jerome Dumortier (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)); Dermot J. Hayes (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Miguel Carriquiry (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Fengxia Dong (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Xiaodong Du (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Amani Elobeid (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Jacinto F. Fabiosa (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)); Kranti Mulik
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the land-use and greenhouse gas emission impact of higher yields in the European Union and a livestock tax in the United States using a global agricultural outlook model and a greenhouse gas model that includes land-use change from cropland and pasture. Both policies are intended to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing carbon release from indirect land-use change and lowering livestock emissions. A yield increase in the European Union leads to savings whereas the tax scenario leads to ambiguous results depending on the assumption about extensification and intensification of livestock production.
    Keywords: crop yield, greenhouse gas emissions, land-use change, pasture extensification.
    Date: 2010–02
  2. By: Alvaro Calzadilla; Katrin Rehdanz; Richard Betts; Pete Falloon; Andy Wiltshire; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute)
    Abstract: Based on predicted changes in the magnitude and distribution of global precipitation, temperature and river flow under the IPCC SRES A1B and A2 scenarios, this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on global agriculture. The analysis uses the new version of the GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. Future climate change is likely to modify regional water endowments and soil moisture. As a consequence, the distribution of harvested land would change, modifying production and international trade patterns. The results suggest that a partial analysis of the main factors through which climate change will affect agricultural productivity lead to different outcomes. Our results show that global food production, welfare and GDP fall in the two time periods and SRES scenarios. Higher food prices are expected. Independently of the SRES scenario, expected losses in welfare are marked in the long term. They are larger under the SRES A2 scenario for the 2020s and under the SRES A1B scenario for the 2050s. The results show that countries are not only influenced by regional climate change, but also by climate-induced changes in competitiveness.
    Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium, Climate Change, Agriculture, Water Resources, River Flow
    JEL: D58 Q17 Q25 Q54
    Date: 2010–04
  3. By: Digdowiseiso, Kumba
    Abstract: Trade liberalization and worldwide economic integration have brought not only an increase in wealth but also in transnational threats. Environmental devastation caused by commercial activities of multinational corporations (MNCs) is one of such threats. While almost all countries have environmental laws designed from pollution, the rules differ per country. Yet, only in the context of legally binding regulatory measures should multinationals be compelled to conduct business in an environmentally friendly manner
    Keywords: Deforestation; MNCs; Regulation; Countries
    JEL: Q23 Q28 O50
    Date: 2010–04–08
  4. By: Guszt v Nemes (Institute of Economics - Hungarian Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: The Rural Development Regulation (RDR) within the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), as an exemplary manifestation of the New Rural Development Paradigm, has achieved significant results. Nevertheless, it has increasingly become liable to institutional complexity and central control in an emerging system - discussed as 'the project state' or 'projectified world' in recent literature. The intersection of different institutional realities (European, domestic, regional, local, sectoral, spatial, etc.) and the resulting institutional bricolage is inevitably contested. The dispute is even more apparent in CEE countries, where multi-level governance is problematic and the New Paradigm has good possibilities, but little tradition. This case study of the implementation of the Hungarian Agri-Environmental Programme (HAEP) intends to illustrate how a disfunctioning project state (clientalism, insufficient bureaucracy, direct political influence) can distort the implementation of rural development policies. We found that the design and the implementation of the programme (HAEP) was subjected to ongoing political influence and the power struggle of three main mindsets, representing different lobbies: the agriculturalists, the green-minded and the accountability-minded actors. As a consequence, the main emphasis remains on the distribution of financial resources, thus original objectives (environmental protection and effective social learning) are not fulfilled. The case study is part of my ongoing research "Local Development Policies in a European Project State - A Systemic Analysis of Institutional Bricolage" supported by an NFM-OTKA grant.
    Keywords: social learning, environmental governance, agri-environmental policies, CAP, EU policies, environmental protection, project state, evaluation
    JEL: D73 D74 D78 H83 J18 Q00 Q01 Q18 Q19 Q51 Q56 Q58 Y80
    Date: 2010–04
  5. By: Newbery, D.
    Abstract: UK energy policy has evolved since the 2002 Energy Review (PIU, 2002) in which Tony Blair introduced the report and noted that “securing cheap, reliable, and sustainable sources of energy has long been a major concern for governments”. The new Department of Energy and Climate Change, DECC, has rephrased its objectives3 to “ensure our energy is secure, affordable and efficient” and “bring about a transition to a low-carbon Britain”. The shift from “cheap” to “affordable” is significant, as meeting the low-carbon (low-C) targets will not be cheap, but should be affordable. We forget that in the interwar period electricity prices were three to four times more expensive than now in real terms. Since then dramatic improvements in efficiency have allowed costs and prices to fall. If one considers that real wages have improved by a factor of four over this period, electricity prices relative to earning power are now less than one tenth of their interwar level.
    Date: 2010–03–25
  6. By: Pierre Cariou (World Maritime University - Malmø University, Euromed Management - Euromed Management - Marseille); François-Charles Wolff (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Université de Nantes : EA4272)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the annual CO2 emissions by international shipping over the 2007-2009 period. Once controlling for the recent changes in activity levels in international trade, we evidence a slow-down of the total volume emitted in 2009. Using an exhaustive dataset of the world fleet, we provide international rankings in CO2 emissions both by country of ownership and by flag of registry of vessels. We finally study how, through flagging-out, most ship-owners from developed countries are implicitly exporting a share of their CO2 emissions under foreign flags. This suggests that a system based on taxes or quotas to be applied by vessel type rather than by the country of ownership or flag of registry may be more efficient to reduce CO2 emissions in shipping.
    Date: 2010–04–12
  7. By: Maureen L. Cropper; Yi Jiang; Anna Alberini; Patrick Baur
    Abstract: Ground-level ozone remains a serious problem in the United States. Because ozone non-attainment is a summer problem, episodic rather than continuous controls of ozone precursors are possible. We evaluate the costs and effectiveness of an episodic scheme that requires people to buy permits to drive on high-ozone days. We estimate the demand function for permits based on a survey of 1,300 households in the Washington, DC, metropolitan area. Assuming that all vehicle owners comply with the scheme, the permit program would reduce volatile organic compounds (VOCs) by 50 tons and nitrogen oxides (NOx) by 42 tons per Code Red day at a permit price of $75. Allowing for non-compliance by 15 percent of respondents reduces the effectiveness of the scheme to 39 tons of VOCs and 33 tons of NOx per day. The cost per ozone season of achieving these reductions is approximately $9 million (2008 USD). This compares favorably with permanent methods of reducing VOCs that cost $645 per ton per year.
    JEL: Q52 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2010–04
  8. By: Amélie Charles (Audencia Nantes, School of Management - Audencia, School of Management); Olivier Darné (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Université de Nantes : EA4272); Jessica Fouilloux (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS : UMR6211 - Université de Rennes I - Université de Caen)
    Abstract: This study examines the martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) for the market of carbon emission allowances within the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) during the Phase I and the Phase II, using both daily and weekly data over the period 2005--2009. The weak-form efficient market hypothesis for spot prices negotiated on BlueNext, European Energy Exchange and NordPool is tested with new variance ratio tests developed by Kim (2009). For the Phase I, the results show that these three markets of the European Union allowances seems to be efficiency, except after the European Commission announcements of stricter Phase II allocation in October 2006. Finally, we find that the CO2 spot prices seem to be weak-form efficiency during the Phase II since the MDH is failed to reject from both daily and weekly data.
    Date: 2010
  9. By: Kenji Fujiwara; Ngo Van Long
    Abstract: Does a country strictly gain if it acts as a leader in a resource market under bilateral monopoly? Using differential games, we show that the answer is "yes" when leadership can be exercised globally (global Stackelberg leadership), but possibly "no" when it is exercised only at each stage (stagewise Stackelberg leadership). On the other hand, world welfare under Nash equilibrium is strictly higher than under global Stackelberg equilibrium. Regardless of which country is the leader, world welfare under stagewise Stackelberg leadership is higher than under global Stackelberg leadership. <P>Quand un pays est un leader dans un marché d’une ressource non-renouvelable, est-ce que son niveau de bien-être devient plus élevé? On montre que la réponse est affirmative quand il s’agit d’un leadership global, mais elle peut être négative dans le cas d’un leadership par étapes. Par contre, le niveau de bien-être mondial sous l’équilibre de Nash est supérieur à celui qui est le résultat de l’équilibre global de Stackelberg. Du point de vue du bien-être mondial, l’équilibre de Stackelberg par étapes est meilleur que l’équilibre global de Stackelberg.
    Keywords: dynamic game, exhaustible resource, Stackelberg leadership. , jeu dynamique, ressources non-renouvelables, leadership de Stackelberg.
    JEL: C73 Q34 F18
    Date: 2010–04–01
  10. By: Atak, Alev; Linton, Oliver B.; Xiao, Zhijie
    Abstract: This paper is concerned with developing a semiparametric panel model to explain the trend in UK temperatures and other weather outcomes over the last century. We work with the monthly averaged maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the twenty six Meteorological Office stations. The data is an unbalanced panel. We allow the trend to evolve in a nonparametric way so that we obtain a fuller picture of the evolution of common temperature in the medium timescale. Profile likelihood estimators (PLE) are proposed and their statistical properties are studied. The proposed PLE has improved asymptotic property comparing the the sequential two-step estimators. Finally, forecasting based on the proposed model is studied.
    Keywords: Global warming; Kernel estimation; Semiparametric; Trend analysis
    JEL: C13 C14 C21
    Date: 2010–03–15
  11. By: Alexander Plekhanov (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development); Sergei Guriev (New Economic School); Konstantin Sonin (New Economic School)
    Abstract: Commodity resources offer vast opportunities for development. In the long run, however, the performance of commodity-rich countries tends to fall short of expectations, as commodity rents induce macroeconomic volatility and undermine incentives to improve institutions. The paper looks at the strategies that countries can adopt to avoid the “resource trap”. These strategies aim at diversifying the economy, promoting financial development, building up stabilisation buffers that lower macroeconomic volatility, and reducing inequality. The resource-rich EBRD countries of operations have embraced these strategies to varying degrees, and with varying success. Improving institutions remains the key challenge.
    Keywords: natural resources, economic boom, institutions, financial development
    JEL: Q32 Q33 O10 O16
    Date: 2009–12
  12. By: Sébastien MARCHAND
    Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of farm productivity as well as farm size on deforestation in Brazil. A two step econometric approach is adopted. A bootstrapped translog stochastic fron- tier that is a posteriori checked for functional consistency is used in order to estimate technical efï¬ciency of which estimates are introduced in a land use model to assess the impact of pro- ductivity and farm size on deforestation. Analysis of agricultural census tract data suggests that "technical efï¬ciency" has a non-linear (convex) effect: less and more efï¬cient farms use more land for agricultural activities and so they have a positive effect on deforestation. However, the majority of farms are on the ascendant slope so that efï¬ciency implies more deforestation in Brazilian Legal Amazon. Moreover, farmsize has a robust negative effect on deforestation. Con- trary to many studies, this result suggests that small farms convert more natural (forested) land into agricultural land than large ones.
    Keywords: tropical deforestation, productivity, Farm size, Stochastic frontier model, Land usemodel, Brazil.
    JEL: Q24 Q12
    Date: 2010

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