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on Environmental Economics |
| By: | Moslener, Ulf; Sturm, Bodo |
| Abstract: | Without participation of the United States, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, mitigation of global climate change seems hardly conceivable. Despite the U.S. rejection of the Kyoto Protocol and the reluctance of the Bush administration to engage in Post-Kyoto negotiations, recent developments suggest that the U.S. position towards climate policy might change in the medium run. This study provides an overview on current trends in U.S. climate policy. Besides the main elements of national climate policy proposals and state-level initiatives the climate contents in the U.S. presidential candidates’ agendas are outlined. Based on this overview recent trends in U.S. climate policy are related to the European approach to combat climate change. Furthermore, we elaborate on the aspects which may be important for Europe to design its own domestic and international climate policy in order to achieve the long-term goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. |
| Keywords: | environmental regulation, climate policy, emissions trading |
| JEL: | H73 K32 N50 Q58 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:7298&r=env |
| By: | Ramprasad Sengupta (Jawaharlal Nehru University/ Visiting Professor, Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | India has been experiencing sustained high economic growth in the recentyears. However, there exists substantial amount of unacceptable poverty among the people in the country. The expressions of symptoms of such poverty include among others inadequate educational and health attainment of the people and lack of access to basic amenities like modern clean energy, safe water and sanitation which are crucial determinants of capability development. There exists in fact significant amount of energy poverty among the people, particularly in the rural India which has more than 70% share of its population, in the form of use of traditional inefficient biomass as the primary fuel with injurious health effect and the lack of connectivity of the households with electricity. The eleventh five year plan of India which has recently been initiated has taken the approach of inclusive faster growth for the development of the Indian economy. This paper analyses the implications of this high inclusive growth in respect of the twin challenges of environmental sustainability of the energy use required by such growth and the removal of energy poverty, which have to be addressed in India's energy planning. The paper defines the concept of sustainable development and points out its resource accounting implications in respect of energy related resource use. It focuses in this context on the instrumental role of the efficiency of energy use and energy supply, fuel composition and technology in determining the strength of the linkage between the GDP growth and the growth of energy use and that between the energy use and the pollution intensity of energy. The paper also defines, on the other hand, the notion of energy poverty and discusses the problem of equity and energy development in a dual society like that of India. It then reviews the past trend and pattern of energy use and the future projections of energy requirement and supply with special reference to the twin issues of equity and environmental sustainability. In this context it makes a decomposition analysis of the past energy use and CO2 emissions in India for examining its environmental sustainability and if economic reforms of India could make any impact on it. It makes further a brief review of the methodologies of projections and policy planning for the future energy sector development in India as existing in the recent literature. Finally, the paper discusses certain selected issues of energy security and macroeconomic viability of such energy development in the background of the sustained steep rise of oil prices and high cost of carbon free new technologies. It concludes by highlighting certain policy issues relating to pricing, technology and institution for the attainability of inclusive growth and particularly for meeting the gaps in such attainment that would possibly remain as per the existing alternative projections for the future. However, this paper does not pay any special attention to the climate change related global policy issues that would affect India and gives priority to the national level issues relating to energy equity and energy related environmental sustainability of Indian development. |
| Date: | 2007–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:213&r=env |
| By: | Levy, Amnon (University of Wollongong) |
| Abstract: | Utility from consumption might be spoiled by the degradation of the environment. The incorporation of a direct dependency of utility on the state of the environment through environmental concern and the incorporation of the effects of production pollution and rehabilitative investment on the environment into a lifetime utility maximization model imply that a minimal degree of impatience is necessary for an interior steady state to exist. This steady state is unique, approachable along a path with damped oscillations of consumption and rehabilitative investment, and characterized by a larger production than in the steady state without environmental concern. |
| Keywords: | Consumption, environmental investment, golden rule |
| JEL: | O12 Q56 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uow:depec1:wp08-10&r=env |
| By: | Gervasio Ciaccia (Italian Authority for Electricity and Gas (AEEG) and Sapienza University of Rome); Nicola Doni (University of Florence); Fulvio Fontini (University of Padua) |
| Abstract: | In this work we frame within auction theory an index that allows to order different projects for the construction of onshore wind energy plants and that explicitly takes into account their environmental quality. Wind farm projects are defined as vectors of attributes, encompassed in four categories: the technical properties of each project; its social impact; its environmental impact and the share of earnings that proponents offer to the collectivity in compensation for the negative externalities of the wind plant. We define an absolute index that allows to order different proposals and evaluate the acceptability of each project, providing the monetary value of each point and inducing a truthful revelation of firms' private information. Moreover, we calibrate the index, on the basis of a representative project and derive the corresponding iso-scoring curves. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy, Wind Power, Scoring Rule, Environmental Externalities |
| JEL: | Q42 Q58 D4 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pad:wpaper:0081&r=env |
| By: | Elisa Ticci (Università degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche) |
| Abstract: | Economic growth is recognized as necessary condition for poverty alleviation, while poverty is expected to be a cause of environmental depletion. Under this perspective, pro-growth policies are consistent with objective of poverty reduction and of environmental sustainability. This work raises doubts about this virtuous relationship. The purpose is not to deny that such links occur, but rather to show theoretical and empirical possibility that another chain of causes and effects might arise. In particular: positive economic growth can produce environmental externalities that hit mainly the poor. In this case the results are positive economic performances associated to a process of impoverishment and depletion of natural resources. In this context, policies with a narrow focus on economic growth not only risk being ineffective in reducing poverty and preserving environment, but they might lead to negative results too. |
| Keywords: | legame crescita economica – povertà - ambiente. |
| JEL: | Q56 O13 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2008_08.rdf&r=env |
| By: | Lucas Bretschger (CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich) |
| Abstract: | The paper develops a model with non-exponential population growth, nonrenewable natural resources, and endogenous knowledge creation to analyse substitution between primary inputs and an essential use of resources in the innovation sectors, which is generally considered as most unfavourable for growth. We show that population growth and poor input substitution are not detrimental but even needed to obtain sustainable consumption. A permanent increase in living standards can be achieved under free market conditions. With a backstop technology, the system converges to a balanced growth path with classical properties. |
| Keywords: | Population growth, non-renewable resources, poor input substitution, technical change, sustainability |
| JEL: | Q32 Q55 Q56 O41 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:08-87&r=env |
| By: | Levy, Amnon (University of Wollongong) |
| Abstract: | This paper speculates how Ramsey’s (1928) model of optimal consumption and saving would have been constructed had Sir Frank Ramsey lived in a period of greater awareness of the environmental damaged caused by production processes. The paper extends Ramsey’s model to the case where the instantaneous satisfaction of the representative agent from consumption is spoiled by the degradation of his physical environment and spending on cleaning up and greening operations are therefore engendered. |
| Keywords: | Consumption, environmental investment, golden rule |
| JEL: | O12 Q56 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uow:depec1:wp08-07&r=env |
| By: | Onno Kuik (VU University Amsterdam); Luke Brander (VU University Amsterdam); Richard S. J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we carry out a meta-analysis of recent studies into the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation policies that aim at the long-term stabilization of these gases in the atmosphere. We find the cost estimates of the studies to be sensitive to the level of the stabilization target, the assumed emissions baseline, intertemporal optimisation, the choice of control variable (CO2 only versus multigas), assumptions on future technological options (backstop and carbon capture and storage), and, to a lesser degree, the scientific ?forum? in which the study was developed. |
| Keywords: | greenhouse gas mitigation; meta-analysis, marginal abatement costs. |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp248&r=env |
| By: | Anthony Ryan; Clive L Spash (CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Moderate or poor reliabilities, worrisome correlation patterns and ambiguous dimensionality raise questions about the awareness of consequences scale being a valid measure of egoistic, social-altruistic and biospheric value orientations. These results may, however, indicate something else. An exploratory analysis performed on three samples collected from the general public provides evidence for a reinterpretation of the scale. We believe the concepts of egoistic, social and biospheric value orientations remain important as a potential explanation of behaviour. However, our results imply that whether people cognitively organise their beliefs in this way when considering adverse environmental consequences requires a different approach from the current awareness of consequences scale. The evidence shows the current scale must be reinterpreted as a measure of concern over the positive and negative consequences of environmental action and inaction. |
| Keywords: | environmental beliefs, value orientations, environmental scales, egoistic, altruistic, biospheric, value-belief-norm model |
| JEL: | D46 D64 D83 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cse:wpaper:2008-10&r=env |
| By: | Constadina Passa (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece); Anastasios Xepapadeas (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece) |
| Abstract: | The structure of farming activity under the provisions of the generalized regime of the Common Agricultural Policy involving both the first and second pillar elements is modelled. Independently of whether regulated agents exhibit unbounded or bounded rationality, the impact of the different type of CAP measures, as prescribed by Agenda 2000, in the decision making - and thus on the environmental performance of a homogeneous population of farmers - are discussed. The problem of a representative farmer is used for this purpose. After assessing the environmental effectiveness of the various CAP regimes, the mechanism that provides the type of CAP instruments that safeguard the collective attainment of a social environmental target, along with the type of interdependence characterizing them, is defined under the analytical framework of unboundedly and boundedly rational agents respectively. The problem of the optimal regulation of an unboundedly rational population of farmers is discussed in both a static and a dynamic context. The long-run viability of the Agenda 2000 CAP reform is also examined under the assumption of bounded rationality by employing the evolutionary framework of replicator dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Environmental impacts, coupling, decoupling, production subsidy, direct payment, cross-compliance principle, rural development subsidy. |
| JEL: | Q18 Q51 |
| Date: | 2007–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crt:wpaper:0818&r=env |
| By: | CHAKRAVORTY Ujjayant; LEACH Andrew; MOREAUX Michel |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ler:wpaper:08.15.259&r=env |
| By: | John Hartwick (Queen's University); Andrei Bazhanov; Zhen Song |
| Abstract: | We consider a competitive extraction industry comprising many small firms, each with a slightly different quality of mineral holdings. With "rapidly" declining quality of holding per fi rm we observe rent declining over an interval. We then take up the familiar planning model and isolate the tax required to make decentralized extraction by many distinct, competitive fi rms replicate the planning solution. |
| Keywords: | exhaustible resources, resource rent, competitive extraction, corrective tax |
| JEL: | Q31 D41 |
| Date: | 2007–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1169&r=env |
| By: | Michelle Gilmartin (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Kim Swales (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Karen Turner (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde) |
| Abstract: | In previous work we have applied the environmental multi-region input-output (MRIO) method proposed by Turner et al (2007) to examine the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the Rest of the UK. In McGregor et al (2008) we construct an interregional economy-environment input-output (IO) and social accounting matrix (SAM) framework that allows us to investigate methods of attributing responsibility for pollution generation in the UK at the regional level. This facilitates analysis of the nature and significance of environmental spillovers and the existence of an environmental ‘trade balance’ between regions. While the existence of significant data problems mean that the quantitative results of this study should be regarded as provisional, we argue that the use of such a framework allows us to begin to consider questions such as the extent to which a devolved authority like the Scottish Parliament can and should be responsible for contributing to national targets for reductions in emissions levels (e.g. the UK commitment to the Kyoto Protocol) when it is limited in the way it can control emissions, particularly with respect to changes in demand elsewhere in the UK. However, while such analysis is useful in terms of accounting for pollution flows in the single time period that the accounts relate to, it is limited when the focus is on modelling the impacts of any marginal change in activity. This is because a conventional demand-driven IO model assumes an entirely passive supply-side in the economy (i.e. all supply is infinitely elastic) and is further restricted by the assumption of universal Leontief (fixed proportions) technology implied by the use of the A and multiplier matrices. In this paper we argue that where analysis of marginal changes in activity is required, a more flexible interregional computable general equilibrium approach that models behavioural relationships in a more realistic and theory-consistent manner, is more appropriate and informative. To illustrate our analysis, we compare the results of introducing a positive demand stimulus in the UK economy using both IO and CGE interregional models of Scotland and the rest of the UK. In the case of the latter, we demonstrate how more theory consistent modelling of both demand and supply side behaviour at the regional and national levels affect model results, including the impact on the interregional CO2 ‘trade balance’. |
| Keywords: | CGE modelling, MRIO, CO2 trade balance, environmental responsibility |
| JEL: | D57 D58 R15 Q56 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:str:wpaper:0808&r=env |
| By: | Anger, Niels; Böhringer, Christoph; Oberndorfer, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a political-economy analysis of allowance allocation in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). A common-agency model suggests that a politicalsupport maximizing government considers the preferences of sectoral interest groups besides public interest when allocating emissions permits. In the stylized model, industries represented by more powerful lobby groups face a lower regulatory burden, which for sufficiently high lobbying power leads to an inefficient emissions regulation. An empirical analysis of the first trading phase of the EU ETS corroborates our theoretical prediction for a cross-section of German firms, but also shows that the political-economy determinants of permit allocation depend on firm characteristics. We find that large carbon emitters that were heavily exposed to emissions regulation and simultaneously represented by powerful interest groups received higher levels of emissions allowances. In contrast, industrial lobbying power stand-alone or threats of potential worker layoffs did not exert a significant influence on the EU ETS allocation process. |
| Keywords: | Emissions trading, interest groups, regression analysis |
| JEL: | C10 P16 Q58 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:7295&r=env |
| By: | Brant Abbott |
| Keywords: | endangered species, poaching, International trade |
| JEL: | K42 Q56 Q57 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rep:wpaper:2008-08&r=env |
| By: | Lorca-Susino, Maria |
| Abstract: | The price of oil has surged five-fold since 2003. A variety of factors are used to explain this: turbulence in the Middle East and rising demand in emerging economies such as India and China are the most common ones. In fact, the latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has declared that the Chinese and Indian economies “account for more than 90 per cent of the rise in consumption of oil products and metals, and 80 per cent of the rise in consumption of grains since 2002.” On Thursday, June 26, 2008, the price of oil broke the all time high of $140 per barrel. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) predicted that this summer the price of oil will range between $150-170 per barrel. This extraordinarily high price has a detrimental impact on an already fragile world economy, forcing governments to work desperately to find alternatives to help reduce the high energy bill for their economies and people. According to some experts, one of the most efficient alternatives is bio-ethanol obtained from corn and sugar cane. However, the production of bio-ethanol raises two concerns: One is a trade-off between arable land to grow food or to grow the source for bio-ethanol. The second has to do with the ecological damage associate with growing sugar-cane. However, Brazil proves these two concerns wrong. Brazil has the most successful bio-ethanol program in the world and has obtained its energy independence at no high environmental or food production cost. Brazil’s success story is closely followed by the EU, US, UK, and even China. Furthermore, there are other energy alternatives such as nuclear energy, which in France covers 75% of the national electricity demand. Additionally, there are others sources of energy like the sun, the wind, and the sea that provide free (beyond the generating equipment) and abundant energy, but which require government investment in terms of start-up subsidies to develop them. Unfortunately, despite the exorbitant current price of oil and the inspiring example of Brazil, governments continue to look for new petroleum resources, rather than new energy alternatives. For example, Cuba recently announced that is has new oil reserves twenty miles north of Havana, and European companies have been the first ones to bid for exploration rights. Lately, Florida Governor Crist has announced that he might change its policy regarding oil exploration off the Florida Cost. This demonstrates that governments still are not fully aware of the great risk globally as a result of the dependency on oil. It seems that a situation similar to that causing “The Great Smog of 1952” in London would have to occur for governments to take the search for new energy sources seriously. |
| Keywords: | Oil; Price of crude; |
| JEL: | A1 E6 |
| Date: | 2008–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9557&r=env |
| By: | Bruce A. Babcock (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD); Midwest Agribusiness Trade Research and Information Center (MATRIC)) |
| Abstract: | Production of biofuels from feedstocks that are diverted from food production or that are grown on land that could grow crops has two important drawbacks: higher food prices and decreased reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. If U.S. policy were to change and place greater emphasis on food prices and greenhouse gas reductions, then we would transition away from current feedstocks toward those that do not reduce our ability to produce food. Examples of such feedstocks include crop residues, algae, municipal waste, jatropha grown on degraded land, and by-products of edible oil production. Policy options that would encourage use of these alternative feedstocks include placing a hard cap on ethanol and biodiesel production that comes from corn and refined vegetable oil, thereby forcing growth in biofuel production to come from alternative feedstocks; differentiation of tax credits and subsidies so that the alternative feedstocks receive a higher incentive than do corn and refined vegetable oil; and greatly increased funding for research to hasten the feasibility of producing and refining alternative feedstocks. |
| Keywords: | biofuels, feedstocks, food prices, policy. |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:08-bp53&r=env |
| By: | Bazhanov, Andrei |
| Abstract: | I offer an approach linking a welfare criterion to the "sustainable development potential" of the economy. This implies a dependence of a criterion on the information about the current state. I consider the problem for the Dasgupta-Heal-Solow-Stiglitz model with externalities. The economy-linked criterion is constructed on an example of the maximin principle applied to a hybrid level-growth measure. This measure includes as special cases the conventional measures of consumption level and percent change as a measure of growth. The hybrid measure or geometrically weighted percent can be used for measuring sustainable growth as an alternative to percent. The closed form solutions are obtained for the optimal paths including the paths, dynamically consistent with the information updates. |
| Keywords: | essential nonrenewable resource; modified Hotelling Rule; economy-linked criterion; geometrically weighted percent; normative resource peak |
| JEL: | Q32 Q38 O47 D63 O13 H23 |
| Date: | 2008–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:9510&r=env |
| By: | Tim Callan (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Sean Lyons (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Sue Scott (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Richard S. J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Stefano Verde (Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of carbon tax and revenue recycling across the income distribution in the Republic of Ireland. In absolute terms, a carbon tax of €20/tCO2 would cost the poorest households less than €3/week and the richest households more than €4/week. A carbon tax is regressive, therefore. However, if the tax revenue is used to increase social benefits and tax credits, households across the income distribution can be made better off without exhausting the total carbon tax revenue. |
| Keywords: | Carbon tax, Ireland, income distribution |
| JEL: | D31 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp250&r=env |
| By: | Kelly Lock (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Suzi Kerr (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | Water quality in Lake Rotorua has been declining for at least the last 30 years as increased levels of nutrients have entered the lake. Despite significant effort and expenditure, the level of nutrients entering the lake still exceeds sustainable levels. A nutrient trading system would help the catchment achieve this goal at least cost. Nutrient sources would bear the cost of their impact on water quality and hence take these costs into account in their decision-making. This paper presents a prototype nutrient trading system for achieving cost effective nutrient loss reductions for the Lake Rotorua catchment. |
| Keywords: | Water quality, nutrients, trading, Lake Rotorua |
| JEL: | Q53 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:08_02&r=env |
| By: | Gastón A. Giordana |
| Abstract: | Aiming to better characterize the exploitation behavior of renewable common-pool resources, in this paper we explore alternative hypothesis about the valuation of the future by the agents and the possibility of heterogeneous behavior on this regard. To do this, we further analyze the experimental data of an N-person discrete-time deterministic dynamic game of T periods fixed duration. Firstly, we consider the homogeneous case where withdrawers’ rate of time preference is symmetrically determined. Then, we calibrate the best fitting model assuming alternatively, exogenous and endogenous time preference. The exogenous time preference case is the traditional assumption in modeling intertemporal choices, i.e. every period, players discount future values at the same level. In the endogenous case, we statistically model the reduced form of the discount factor as a transformation of a second order polynomial on wealth. Secondly, we further explore the endogenous case looking forward to assess the extent of heterogeneity in the rate of time preference formation process. Dynamic problems resolution gives scope for the implementation of ‘rules of thumb’ as a consequence of its' intrinsic complexity. Then, in order to identify the different decisions rules and to classify appropriators within them, we implement a Bayesian classification algorithm based on Houser et al (2004) work. The application of this econometric procedure has allowed us to identify two types of appropriators: “Quasi Myopic” (QM) appropriators and “Disrupted Farsighted” (DF) appropriators. The algorithm has classified near 85% of the appropriators in our sample as QM, and 5% as DF; the lasting agents could not be identified. We used the fitted empirical model to perform simulations. Some results are: (i) initial wealth increase the average efficiency of exploitation; (ii) when initial wealth is high (low), a more equally (unequally) distribution of wealth between types results in higher efficiency in the exploitation of the resource. |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lam:wpaper:08-10&r=env |
| By: | Arthur Grimes (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Andrew Aitken (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | Water is critical for agriculture, yet surprisingly few studies internationally have analysed the value placed on water in specific farming contexts. We do so using a rich longitudinal dataset for the Mackenzie District (Canterbury, New Zealand) over nineteen years, enabling us to extract the value placed by farmers on long-term access to irrigated water. New Zealand has a system of water consents under the Resource Management Act (RMA) that enables farmers with consents to extract specified quantities of water for agricultural purposes. Some water is extracted through large-scale irrigation infrastructure and other flows by more localised means; the RMA and the water consents themselves are a critical legal infrastructure underpinning farming. Using panel methods, we estimate property sale price and assessed value as a function of the size of the farm's water right (if it has one), farm characteristics, and the water right interacted with farm characteristics to determine how the value of a water consent varies according to local conditions. We find that flatter areas and areas with poorly draining soils benefit most from irrigation, possibly because the water is retained for longer on these properties. Drier areas appear to benefit more from irrigation than do areas with higher rainfall. Farms that are situated close to towns derive especially strong benefits from irrigation since these properties are most likely to have potential water-intensive land uses such as dairying and cropping that require access to processing facilities and/or an urban labour pool. |
| Keywords: | irrigation, hedonics, water supply, New Zealand |
| JEL: | Q15 Q25 Q12 D23 D24 |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:08_10&r=env |
| By: | Trevor Breusch; Farshid Vahid |
| Abstract: | Are global temperatures on a warming trend? It is difficult to be certain about trends when there is so much variation in the data and very high correlation from year to year. We investigate the question using statistical time series methods. Our analysis shows that the upward movement over the last 130-160 years is persistent and not explained by the high correlation, so it is best described as a trend. The warming trend becomes steeper after the mid-1970s, but there is no significant evidence for a break in trend in the late 1990s. Viewed from the perspective of 30 or 50 years ago, the temperatures recorded in most of the last decade lie above the confidence band of forecasts produced by a model that does not allow for a warming trend. |
| JEL: | C22 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2008-495&r=env |
| By: | Gladys Choy (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú) |
| Abstract: | El significativo incremento del precio del petróleo en los últimos años (que se ha más que triplicado desde el 2002 alcanzando un nivel record de US$ 100 el barril en diciembre de 2007), así como la mayor preocupación por temas medio ambientales y el calentamiento global, han ido de la mano de un renovado y creciente interés por el uso de los biocombustibles como una fuente de energía alternativa a los combustibles fósiles, que ha llevado también a un incremento significativo de los precios de sus materias primas, principalmente maíz y soya, y de otros alimentos básicos. En este informe se presenta la evolución reciente en el desarrollo de los biocombustibles, se discute las ventajas y desventajas de dicho desarrollo, y se analiza el impacto de las perspectivas del mercado de los biocombustibles sobre la balanza comercial, los términos de intercambio y la inflación. |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2008-005&r=env |
| By: | Hengyun Ma; Les Oxley (University of Canterbury); John Gibson |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates energy market integration in China by employing univariate, and panel-based unit root tests and Granger causality tests applied to a new, energy price data set. We identify price series that converge either to absolute or relative price parity. In addition we estimate the rates (speed) at which relative prices converge to their long-run values, and the direction of causality. The results show that gasoline and diesel markets are very well integrated as a whole; that once some geographically isolated regions are excluded, we can regard the coal market as integrated; however, the electricity markets is not well integrated. The estimated intercept terms are all very small and close to zero, such that most of the relative price series can be regarded as convergent to absolute price parity. The convergence rates vary little and are relatively short when compared internationally. A rich set of causal relationships are established many showing bi-directional causality between regional centres. |
| Keywords: | China; Energy; Market integration; Price convergence; Time series tests |
| JEL: | D24 O33 Q41 |
| Date: | 2008–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbt:econwp:08/12&r=env |