|
on Environmental Economics |
| By: | Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Mendelsohn, Robert |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of climate change on cropland in Africa. It is based on a survey of more than 9,000 farmers in 11 countries: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger, Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The study uses a Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. The results show that net revenues fall as precipitation falls or as temperatures warm across all the surveyed farms. In addition to examining all farms together, the study examined dryland and irrigated farms separately. Dryland farms are especially climate sensitive. Irrigated farms have a positive immediate response to warming because they are located in relatively cool parts of Africa. The study also examined some simple climate scenarios to see how Africa would respond to climate change. These uniform scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and the change is uniform across all of Africa. In addition, the study examined three climate change scenarios from Atmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models. These scenarios predicted changes in climate in each country over time. Not all countries are equally vulnerable to climate change. First, the climate scenarios predict different temperature and precipitation changes in each country. Second, it is also important whether a country is already hot and dry. Third, the extent to which farms are irrigated is also important. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Environmental Economics & Policies,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development,Crops & Crop Management Systems |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4305&r=env |
| By: | Eid, Helmy M.; El-Marsafawy, Samia M.; Ouda, Samiha A. |
| Abstract: | This study employed the Ricardian approach to measure the economic impacts of climate change on farm net revenue in Egypt. Farm net revenue were regressed against climate, soil, socioeconomic and hydrological variables to determine which factors influence the variability of farm net revenues. 900 households from 20 governorates were interviewed. The standard Ricardian model was applied, in addition to three other models, each representing an adaptation option that could be used to reduce the harmful effects of temperature stress. A further adaptation strategy was tested: raising livestock on the farm to cope with the harmful effects of climate change. Besides this, the effects of two climate change scenarios (using MAGICC/SCENGEN and GCMs-General Circulation Models) were considered. The results from the two climate change scenarios showed that high temperatures will constrain agricultural production in Egypt. Irrigation and technology are therefore the recommended adaptation options. However, warming may also affect water resources and that would pose another problem for agricultural production. A policy should be developed to cope with the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture. It should focus on three areas: crop management, water management, and land management. The favored option for adapting to increased temperatures is irrigation. Some farmers adjust their crop sowing dates to avoid the expected high temperatures. To adjust to shortages in rainfall, farmers use crop varieties with high water use efficiency and early maturing varieties. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Environmental Economics & Policies,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems,Water Supply a nd Sanitation Governance and Institutions |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4293&r=env |
| By: | Lecocq, Franck; Shalizi, Zmarak |
| Abstract: | Although climate policies have been so far mostly focused on mitigation, adaptation to climate change is a growing concern in developed and developing countries. This paper discusses how adaptation fits into the global climate strategy, at the global and national levels. To do so, a partial equilibrium optimization model of climate policies-which includ es mitigation, proactive adaptation (ex ante), and reactive adaptation (ex post)-is solved without and with uncertainty. Mitigation, proactive adaptation, and reactive adaptation are found to be generally jointly determined. Uncertainty on the location of damages reduces the benefits of " targeted " proactive adaptation with regard to mitigation and reactive adaptation. However, no single country controls global mitigation policies, and budget constraints might make it difficult for developing countries to finance reactive adaptation, especially if climate shocks affect the fiscal base. Rainy-day funds are identified as a supplemental instrument that can alleviate future budget constraints while avoiding the risk of misallocating resources when the location of damages is uncertain. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics & Policies,Economic Theory & Research,Educational Sciences,Disability,Social Inclusion & Institutions |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4299&r=env |
| By: | Maddison, David; Manley, Marita; Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the Ricardian approach to examine how farmers in 11 countries in Africa have adapted to existing climatic conditions. It then estimates the effects of predicted changes in climate while accounting for whatever farmer adaptation might occur. This study differs from earlier ones by using farmers ' own perceptions of the value of their land. Previous research, by contrast, has relied on either observed sale prices or net revenues, sometimes aggregated over geographically large tracts of terrain. The study also makes use of high resolution data describing soil quality and runoff. Furthermore, it tackles the challenges involved in modeling the effect of climate on agriculture in a study that includes countries in the northern and southern hemispheres, as well as the tropics. The study confirms that African agriculture is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Even with perfect adaptation, regional climate change by 2050 is predicted to entail production losses of 19.9 percent for Burkina Faso and 30.5 percent for Niger. By contrast, countries such as Ethiopia and South Africa are hardly affected at all, suffering productivity losses of only 1.3 percent and 3 percent, respectively. The study also confirms the importance of water supplies as measured by runoff, which, being affected by both temperature and precipitation, may itself be highly sensitive to climate change. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics & Policies,Climate Change,Common Property Resource Development,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems,Global Environment Facility |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4306&r=env |
| By: | John Bryant (Vocat International) |
| Abstract: | An analysis of possible restrictions on economic development posed by climate change and resource factors. The paper examines international trends over several decades of GDP, capital stock, population and energy demand and intensity, and the extent to which these trends may need to change to meet restrictions on CO2 emissions arising from consumption of fossil fuels. |
| Keywords: | Thermodynamics, economics, Le Chatelier, energy, climate change, finite world, limits to growth |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:voc:wpaper:ee2007&r=env |
| By: | Jain, Suman |
| Abstract: | This report assesses the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture in Zambia, using the Ricardian method. A multiple linear regression model with net revenue per hectare as response variable has been fitted with climate, hydrological, soil, and socioeconomic variables as explanatory variables. There is one main cropping season in Zambia, lasting from November to April. Crop production in this period depends solely on rains. Considering crop progression in three stages-germination, growing, and maturing, which requi re different amounts of water and temperature-the climate variables included in the model are long-term averages of the temperature and wetness index for the periods November to December, January to February, and March to April. Assuming a nonlinear relationship of farm revenue with the climate variables, quadratic terms for climate variables were also included in the model. The results indicate that most socioeconomic variables are not significant, whereas some climate variables and the corresponding quadratic variables are significant in the model. Further findings are that an increase in the November-December mean temperature and a decrease in the January-February mean rainfall have negative impacts on net farm revenue, whereas an increase in the January-February mean temperature and mean annual runoff has a positive impact. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development,Economic Theory & Research |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4291&r=env |
| By: | Buys, Piet; Deichmann, Uwe; Meisner, Craig; Ton-That, Thao; Wheeler, David |
| Abstract: | Using a comprehensive geo-referenced database of indicators relating to global change and energy, the paper assesses countries ' likely attitudes with respect to international treaties that regulate carbon emissions. The authors distinguish between source and impact vulnerability and classify countries according to these dimensions. The findings show clear differences in the factors that determine likely negotiating positions. This analysis and the resulting detailed, country level information help to explain the incentives required to make the establishment of such agreements more likely. |
| Keywords: | Energy Production and Transportation,Energy and Environment,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Climate Change,Transport and Environment |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4300&r=env |
| By: | Karen Mayor (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Richard S.J Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)) |
| Abstract: | We use a model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows to estimate the impact of the EU-US Open Skies agreement that is to take effect in March 2008. The Open Aviation Area will result in increased competition between transatlantic carriers and consequently falls in the cost of flights, therefore we look at the change in visitor numbers from the US into the EU and corresponding CO2 emissions. We find that passenger numbers arriving from the US to the EU will increase by approximately 1% and 14% depending on the magnitude of the price reductions. This increase in passenger numbers does not however result in a corresponding rise in emissions as arrivals into other countries from the US fall by a comparable amount. The number of tourist arrivals from the US to countries outside of the EU will fall and overall emissions would then increase by a maximum of 0.7%. If we assume that domestic holidays and foreign holidays are close substitutes these effects are strengthened and US passengers switch from domestic trips to foreign destinations as airfares converge. |
| Keywords: | International tourism, open skies agreement, carbon dioxide emissions |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp191&r=env |
| By: | Valentina Bosetti (FEEM); Carlo Carraro (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Ca’ Foscari); Emanuele Massetti (FEEM; FEEM) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how international knowledge flows affect the dynamics of the domestic R&D sector and the main economic and environmental variables. The analysis is performed using WITCH, a dynamic regional model of the world economy, in which energy technical change is endogenous. The focus is on disembodied energy R&D international spillovers. The knowledge pool from which regions draw foreign ideas differs between High Income and Low Income countries. Absorption capacity is also endogenous in the model. The basic questions are as follows. Do knowledge spillovers enhance energy technological innovation in different regions of the world? Does the speed of innovation increase? Or do free-riding incentives prevail and international spillovers crowd out domestic R&D efforts? What is the role of domestic absorption capacity and of policies designed to enhance it? The new specification of the WITCH model presented in this paper enables us to answer these questions. Our analysis shows that international knowledge spillovers tend to increase free-riding incentives and decrease the investments in energy R&D. We also analyze the implication of a policy mix in which climate policy is combined with a technology policy designed to enhance absorption capacity in developing countries. Significant positive impacts on the costs of stabilising GHG concentrations are singled out. |
| Keywords: | Climate Policy, Energy R&D, International R&D Spillovers, Stabilization |
| JEL: | H0 H2 H3 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:11_07&r=env |
| By: | Dritan Osmani; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin, Ireland) |
| Abstract: | The stability of International Environmental Agreements (IEA) is analyzed by using game theory. The integrated assessment model FUND provides the cost-bene¯t payo® functions of pollution abatement for sixteen di®erent world regions. The farsighted stability concept of Chwe (1994) is used and solved by combinatorial algorithms. The farsighted stability con- cept captures the perfect foresight of the players and predicts which coalitions can be formed when players are farsighted. All farsightedly stable coalitions are found as well as their im- provement to environment and welfare. The farsightedly stable coalitions are re¯ned further to the preferred farsightedly stable coalitions. The d'Aspremont stable coalitions are very shortly presented in order to compare with farsighted stable ones. The stability concept of d'Aspremont et al. (1983) assumes that players are myopic and consider only single-player movements. |
| Keywords: | game theory, integrated assessment modeling, farsighted stability, coalition formation, d'Aspremont stability |
| JEL: | C72 Q54 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:140&r=env |
| By: | Roberto Roson (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Francesco Bosello (Department of Economics, University of Milan) |
| Abstract: | A Climate Change Damage Function (CCDF) is a reduced form relationship linking macroeconomic aggregates (e.g., potential GDP) to climate indicators (e.g., average temperature levels). This function is used in a variety of studies about climate change impacts and policy analysis. However, despite the fact that this function is key in determining results in many integrated assessment models, it is not typically calibrated in a consistent and rigorous way. This paper presents a novel approach, in which several different impacts of climate change are first assessed by means of a full-fledged computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, then results are interpolated to get a simple relationship of the CCDF type. The estimated CCDF is compared with other popular functions used in the literature, to highlight the possible implications associated with the alternative adoption of this functional relationship. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Damage Function, Integrated Assessment, General Equilibrium. |
| JEL: | C68 D58 F18 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:08_07&r=env |
| By: | Karen Mayor (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Richard S.J Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)) |
| Abstract: | We use a model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows to estimate the impact of the recent and proposed changes in the Air Passenger Duty (APD) of the United Kingdom. We find that the recent doubling of the APD has the perverse effect of increasing carbon dioxide emissions, albeit only slightly, because it reduces the relative price difference between near and far holidays. Tourist arrivals in the UK would fall slightly. Tourist arrivals from the UK would fall in the countries near to the UK, and this drop would be only partly offset by displaced tourists from the UK. Tourist numbers in countries far from the UK would increase. The proposal of the Conservative Party to exempt the first 2,000 miles (for UK residents) would decrease emissions by roughly the same amount as abolishing the APD altogether – but tourist arrivals in the UK would not rise. These results are reversed if we assume that domestic holidays and foreign holidays are close substitutes. If the same revenue were raised with a carbon tax rather than a boarding tax, emissions would fall with higher taxes. |
| Keywords: | International tourism, carbon dioxide emissions, boarding tax, United Kingdom |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp187&r=env |
| By: | Strzepek, Kenneth; McCluskey, Alyssa |
| Abstract: | This paper summarizes the methods and findings of the hydrological assessment component of the project studying likely impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Africa. The first phase of the study used a version of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model called WatBal (Water Balance) applied to gridded data to simulate changes in soil moisture and runoff across the whole continent of Africa rather than to any particular catchment or water resource system. The model inputs were the climate variables of the 1961-90 climatology and physiological parameters (such as soil properties and land use) derived from global datasets for each of the 0.5o latitude/longitude cells across the continent. The primary model output comprised a time series (monthly time step) of simulated runoff for all the grid cells for each of the districts in the countries of interest. The second phase of the study extended the hydrology analyses to update the above hydroclimatic series to the year 2000 using updated input data. To ascertain the possible impacts of climate change within the districts being investigated this study used synthetic or GCMbased clima te change scenarios as input to the WatBal model. The WatBal model was used to determine the impact of these different scenarios on runoff and actual evaporation and hence flow in the districts under study. The generated hydroclimatic series and scenario analyses were used as inputs into various Ricardian regressions in other analyses measuring likely impacts of climate change on the agricultural economies of Africa. |
| Keywords: | Wetlands,Climate Change,Water Supply and Systems,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4290&r=env |
| By: | Roberto Roson (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Francesco Bosello (Department of Economics, University of Milan); Enrica De Cian (Scuola di Studi Avanzati, University of Venice Ca'Foscari) |
| Abstract: | Future energy demand will be affected by changes in prices and income, but also by other factors, like temperature levels. This paper draws upon an econometric study, disentangling the contribution of temperature in the determination of the annual regional demand for energy goods. Combining estimates of temperature elasticities with scenarios of future climate change, it is possible to assess variations in energy demand induced (directly) by the global warming. We use this information to simulate a change in the demand structure of households in a CGE model of the world economy, in a set of assessment exercises. The changing demand structure triggers a structural adjustment process, influencing trade flows, regional competitiveness of industries and regions, and welfare. We also consider the possible existence of imperfect competition in the energy markets, analyzing the impact of changes in energy demand with an alternative model version, in which energy industries are modeled as Cournot oligopolies. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Damage Function, Integrated Assessment, General Equilibrium. |
| JEL: | C68 D58 F18 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:09_07&r=env |
| By: | Maddison, David |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to determine the ability of farmers in Africa to detect climate change, and to ascertain how they have adapted to whatever climate change they believe has occurred. The paper also asks farmers whether they perceive any barriers to adaptation and attempts to determine the characteristics of those farmers who, despite claiming to have witnessed climate change, have not yet responded to it. The study is based on a large-scale survey of agriculturalists in 11 African countries. The survey reveals that significant numbers of farmers believe that temperatures have already increased and that precipitation has declined. Those with the greatest experience of farming are more likely to notice climate change. Further, neighboring farmers tell a consistent story. There are important differences in the propensity of farmers living in different locations to adapt and there may be institutional impediments to adaptation in some countries. Although large numbers of farmers perceive no barriers to adaptation, those that do perceive them tend to cite their poverty and inability to borrow. Few if any farmers mentioned lack of appropriate seed, security of tenure, or market accessibility as problems. Those farmers who perceive climate change but fail to respond may require particular incentives or assistance to do what is ultimately in their own best interests. Although experienced farmers are more likely to perceive climate change, it is educated farmers who are more likely to respond by making at least one adaptation. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Rural Poverty Reduction,Environmental Economics & Policies,Agricultural Knowledge & Information Systems,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4308&r=env |
| By: | Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Mendelsohn, Robert |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the choice of crops is affected by climate in Africa. Using a multinomial logit model, the paper regresses crop choice on climate, soils, and other factors. The model is estimated using a sample of more than 7,000 farmers across 11 countries in Africa. The study finds that crop choice is very climate sensitive. For example, farmers select sorghum and maize-millet in the cooler regions of Africa; maize-beans, maize-groundnut, and maize in moderately warm regions ' and cowpea, cowpea-sorghum, and millet-groundnut in hot regions. Further, farmers choose sorghum, and millet-groundnut when conditions are dry; cowpea, cowpea-sorghum, maize-millet, and maize when medium wet; and maize-beans and maize-groundnut when wet. As temperatures warm, farmers will shift toward more heat tolerant cro ps. Depending on whether precipitation increases or decreases, farmers will also shift toward drought tolerant or water loving crops, respectively. There are several policy relevant conclusions to draw from this study. First, farmers will adapt to climate change by switching crops. Second, global warming impact studies cannot assume crop choice is exogenous. Third, this study only examines choices across current crops. Future farmers may well have more choices. There is an important role for agronomic research in developing new varieties more suited for higher temperatures. Future farmers may have even better adaptation alternatives with an expanded set of crop choices specifically targeted at higher temperatures. |
| Keywords: | Crops & Crop Management Systems,Climate Change,Agriculture & Farming Systems,Renewable Energy,Global Environment Facility |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4307&r=env |
| By: | Mano, Reneth; Nhemachena, Charles |
| Abstract: | This study uses the Ricardian approach to examine the economic impact of climate change on agriculture in Zimbabwe. Net farm revenue is regressed against various climate, soil, hydrological and socio-economic variables to help determine the factors that influence variability in net farm revenues. The study is based on data from a survey of 700 smallholder farming households interviewed across the country. The empirical results show that climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) have significant effects on net farm revenues in Zimbabwe. In addition to the analysis of all farms, the study also analyzes the effects on dryland farms and farms with irrigation. The analysis indicates that net farm revenues are affected negatively by increases in temperature and positively by increases in precipitation. The results from sensitivity analysis suggest that agricultural production in Zimbabwe ' s smallholder farming system is significantly constrained by climatic factors (high temperature and low rainfall). The elasticity results show that the changes in net revenue are high for dryland farming compared to farms with irrigation. The results show that farms with irrigation are more resistant to changes in climate, indicating that irrigation is an important adaptation option to help reduce the impact of further changes in climate. An overview of farmer adaptation to changing climate indicates that farmers are already using some adaptation strategies-such as dry and early planting, growing drought resistant crops, changing planting dates, and using irrigation-to cushion themselves against further anticipated adverse climatic conditions. An important policy message from the empirical findings is that there is a need to provide adequate extension information services to ensure that farmers receive up-to-date information about rainfall patterns in the forthcoming season so that they make well-informed decisions on their planting dates. Policies that increase farmer training and access to credit and aid facilities and help farmers acquire livestock and other important farm assets can help improve net farm performance. Ensuring the availability and accessibility of fertilizers and crop seeds before the onset of the next cropping season can also significantly improve net farm performance across households. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Environmental Economics & Policies,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Agriculture & Farming Systems,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4292&r=env |
| By: | Roberto Roson (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Enrica de Cian (FEEM; Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Elisa Lanzi (FEEM) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical study of energy demand, in which demand for a series of energy goods (Gas, Oil Products, Coal, Electricity) is expressed as a function of various factors, including temperature. Parameter values are estimated econometrically, using a dynamic panel data approach. Unlike previous studies in this field, the data sample has a global coverage, and special emphasis is given to the dynamic nature of demand, as well as to interactions between income levels and sensitivity to temperature variations. These features make the model results especially valuable in the analysis of climate change impacts. Results are interpreted in terms of derived demand for heating and cooling. Non-linearities and discontinuities emerge, making necessary to distinguish between different countries, seasons, and energy sources. Short- and long-run temperature elasticities of demand are estimated. |
| Keywords: | Advertising, Media Industries, Broadcasting, Price Discrimination, Television, Radio, Differentiation.. |
| JEL: | L82 M37 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:06_07&r=env |
| By: | Randy Becker; Ronald Shadbegian |
| Abstract: | The Pollution Abatement Costs and Expenditures (PACE) survey is the most comprehensive source of information on U.S. manufacturing's capital expenditures and operating costs associated with pollution abatement. In 2003, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency began a significant initiative to redevelop the survey, guided by the advice of a multi-disciplinary workgroup consisting of economists, engineers, survey design experts, and experienced data users, in addition to incorporating feedback from key manufacturing industries. This paper describes some of these redevelopment efforts. Issues discussed include the approach to developing the new survey instrument, methods used to evaluate (and improve) its performance, innovations in sampling, and the special development and role of outside expertise. The completely redesigned PACE survey was first administered in early 2006. Keywords: Survey design, survey evaluation, sampling, environmental costs, manufacturing * Note that the opinions and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Census Bureau or the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. All empirical results have been reviewed to ensure that no confidential information is disclosed. Otherwise, this work has not undergone the review accorded official Census Bureau publications. The authors would like to thank Paul Hsen and Amanda Lee for their comments on an earlier draft. A version of this paper is forthcoming in Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Establishment Surveys. Forthcoming, Proceedings of the Third International Conference on Establishment Surveys. |
| Keywords: | Survey design, survey evaluation, sampling, environmental costs, manufacturing |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:07-20&r=env |
| By: | Green, Kesten C.; Armstrong, J. Scott |
| Abstract: | In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued its Fourth Assessment Report. The Report included predictions of dramatic increases in average world temperatures over the next 92 years and serious harm resulting from the predicted temperature increases. Using forecasting principles as our guide we asked: Are these forecasts a good basis for developing public policy? Our answer is “no.” To provide forecasts of climate change that are useful for policy-making, one would need to forecast (1) global temperature, (2) the effects of any temperature changes, (3) the effects of alternative policies, and (4) whether the best policy would be successfully implemented. Proper forecasts of all four are necessary for rational policy making. The IPCC Report was regarded as providing the most credible long-term forecasts of global average temperatures by 31 of the 51 scientists and others involved in forecasting climate change who responded to our survey. We found no references to the primary sources of information on forecasting methods despite the fact these are easily available in books, articles, and websites. We audited the forecasting processes described in Chapter 8 of the IPCC’s WG1 Report to assess the extent to which they complied with forecasting principles. We found enough information to make judgments on 89 out of a total of 140 forecasting principles. The forecasting procedures that were described violated 72 principles. Many of the violations were, by themselves, critical. The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In effect, they were the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. Research on forecasting has shown that experts’ predictions are not useful. We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts of global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder. |
| Keywords: | accuracy; audit; climate change; evaluation; expert judgment; mathematical models; public policy |
| JEL: | C53 H23 H21 |
| Date: | 2007–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4361&r=env |
| By: | Lotsch, Alexander |
| Abstract: | The detailed analysis of current cropping areas in Africa presented here reveals s ignificant climate sensitivities of cropland density and distribution across a variety of agro-ecosystems. Based on empirical climate-cropland relationships, cropland density responds positively to increases in precipitation in semi-arid and arid zones of the sub-tropics and warmer temperatures in higher elevations. As a result, marginal increases in seasonal precipitation lead to denser cropping areas in arid and semi-arid regions. Warmer temperatures, on the other hand, tend to decrease the probability of cropping in most parts of Africa (the opposite is true for increases in rainfall and decreases in temperatures relative to current conditions). Despite discrepancies and uncertainties in climate model output, the analysis suggests that cropland area in Africa is likely to decrease significantly in response to transient changes in climate. The continent is expected to have lost on average 4.1 percent of its cropland by 2039, and 18.4 percent is likely to have disappeared by the end of the century. In some regions of Africa the losses in cropland area are likely to occur at a much faster rate, with northern and eastern Africa losing up to 15 percent of their current cropland area within the next 30 years or so. Gains in cropland area in western and southern Africa due to projected increases in precipitation during the earlier portions of the century will be offset by losses later on. In conjunction with existing challenges in the agricultural sector in Africa, these findings demand sound policies to manage existing agricultural lands and the productivity of cropping systems. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development,Rural Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4289&r=env |
| By: | Christine Schleupner; P. Michael Link (Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | Agricultural land on the Eiderstedt peninsula in Schleswig-Holstein (Germany) is traditionally dominated by extensively used grassland. These grassland areas are home to many (endangered) bird species, making Eiderstedt one of the prime bird habitats at the West coast of Schleswig-Holstein. Plans exist to convert large shares of grassland to arable farm land to grow crops needed in an intensified dairy production and for biofuels. In this study, three possible scenarios of agricultural land use change on Eiderstedt in the next couple of decades are developed. Using a GIS the possible impacts of such conversions on breeding bird populations of four key species are determined. The results indicate that an increase of arable farm land to approximately two thirds of the whole agricultural area drastically reduces suitable bird habitat, thus considerably diminishing the number of breeding pairs supported by the environment. The ornithological impact is greatest if conversion takes place throughout Eiderstedt extending from already existing areas of arable farm land. But even though the reduction in suitable breeding habitat is less pronounced in the other scenarios, every one of them induces a severe pressure on populations of meadowbirds that rely on habitat on Eiderstedt for successful reproduction. |
| Keywords: | land use |
| JEL: | Q15 |
| Date: | 2007–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:138&r=env |
| By: | Dinar, Shlomi; Dinar, Ariel; Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep |
| Abstract: | The environment and security literature has argued that freshwater scarcity often leads to inter-state conflict, and possibly acute violence. The contention, however, ignores the long history of hydro-political cooperation exemplified by hundreds of documented agreements. Building on a theory that considers the relationship between scarcity and hydro-political cooperation, this paper empirically investigates why treaties are negotiated for some rivers and between some riparians, and not others. The paper suggests that long-term water scarcity has a significant influence on levels of cooperation. Additional variables considered include trade, level of governance among the riparian states, and the geography of the river. Findings confirm that cooperation and scarcity embody a concave (inverted U curve) relationship. Governance has a positive impact on cooperation. In addition, riparians may either arrange the use of their scarce water resources via a treaty or trade (and indirectly exchange [virtual ] water). Scarcity, governance, and trade were found to be most salient in explaining levels of cooperation while geography is significant in some of the estimates. |
| Keywords: | Water and Industry,Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions,Environmental Economics & Policies,Town Water Suppl y and Sanitation,Water Conservation |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4294&r=env |
| By: | Pamela Kaval (University of Waikato); Richard Yao (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | Millions of people participate in outdoor recreation activities in New Zealand every year. Economic recreation studies in the country concentrate mostly on market values. Market values only present part of the outdoor recreation benefit; while non-market values represent the other part. In this study, a meta-analysis is used to determine the non-market benefit of recreation. Results show non-market benefits from outdoor recreation to be over five billion dollars annually, exceeding market benefits of approximately four billion. New Zealand non-market values were then compared to those from a United States recreation database and results were favourably similar. |
| Keywords: | non-market valuation; outdoor recreation; consumer surplus; New Zealand |
| JEL: | Q26 Q51 |
| Date: | 2007–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:07/14&r=env |
| By: | Francisco Alberto Galán |
| Abstract: | Colombia cuenta con el Sistema de Parques Nacionales Naturales -SPNN- y está en el proceso de constituir un Sistema Nacional de Áreas Protegidas -SINAP- que articule la variedad de áreas protegidas de iniciativa municipal, departamental, regional, colectiva y privada. La Unidad Administrativa Especial del Sistema de Parques Nacionales Naturales -UAESPNN- es la entidad responsable de administrar el primero de estos sistemas y de liderar la constitución del segundo. La complejidad de los retos organizativos asociados con estas responsabilidades de la UAESPNN exigen la constitución de una capacidad institucional que necesariamente debe partir de sólidos procesos de planificación, con una perspectiva de largo plazo y con una adecuada articulación de los esfuerzos oficiales y las iniciativas ciudadanas. En los últimos cinco años, la Unidad ha ejecutado un proyecto de fortalecimiento institucional, con recursos de la cooperación de los Países Bajos, en el que se han elaborado una serie de estudios y se han llevado a cabo experiencias piloto en diversos aspectos propios del quehacer de la Unidad. Estos esfuerzos complementan avances previos en materias como la integración de una estrategia financiera, el desarrollo de líneas de investigación, la oferta de educación ambiental, el diseño de cambios en la organización interna de la Unidad, el análisis y la revisión del cuerpo normativo que sustenta su gestión, la validación de opciones productivas para las poblaciones vecinas a las áreas protegidas y la consolidación de una capacidad de planeación en los diversos ámbitos de trabajo, entre otras actividades necesarias para la conservación de los parques nacionales. Este documento presenta una revisión analítica de diferentes trabajos en los que se recopilan y se discuten las propuestas y las experiencias acumuladas, así como de documentos de referencia existentes en la Unidad. Esta revisión analítica está dirigida a señalar y a destacar antecedentes y retos que se considera recomendable tener en cuenta al elaborar un plan estratégico para la Unidad. |
| Date: | 2006–01–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000142:002054&r=env |
| By: | P. Michael Link; Christine Schleupner (Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | The Eiderstedt peninsula in Schleswig-Holstein (Germany) has a long tradition as agricultural land. In the past, the landscape has been generally dominated by extensively used grassland. These grassland areas are home to many bird species, so that Eiderstedt can be considered to be one of the most important bird habitats in Schleswig-Holstein. Ongoing changes in the structure of the regional agriculture towards an intensified dairy production and the growth of biofuels call for a conversion of large shares of grassland to arable farm land. However, these plans are fiercely debated because a strong decline in grassland area is likely to have a considerable ecological impact on domestic meadowbird species. In this study, these problems accompanying an extensive land use change on Eiderstedt are explored. Three possible scenarios of transformations of agricultural land are developed which can be applied to determine the possible impacts of such conversions. |
| Keywords: | land use |
| JEL: | Q15 |
| Date: | 2007–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:137&r=env |
| By: | Joe O'Doherty (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Karen Mayor (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Richard S.J Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)) |
| Date: | 2007–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp186&r=env |
| By: | Karen Mayor (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Susan Scott (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)); Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to check the monetary value of the recreational use of Irish forests using two different valuation methods on the one dataset – the Travel Cost Method and the Contingent Valuation Technique – and in doing so test convergent validity, i.e. whether they are consistent with each other. It is found that convergence cannot be established with this data. The Willingness-to-Pay for entrance responses are stationary and tend to cluster around IR£1 per adult equivalent per trip. The TCM results of consumer surplus, which should be the same as WTP, are more variable depending on which sample is analysed and range between IR£2.38 and IR£5.95 per adult equivalent per trip. No correlation between these two variables was found. It seems that there are problems in getting people to state their true WTP. This is possibly due to a misinterpretation of the question by respondents as well as a tendency to revert to a common number. It is also likely that respondents used their WTP answers to make a political statement against the expansion of forestland using agricultural land. Finally, forests in Ireland are regarded as public goods and consequently there exists a stance among users that access to them should be free of charge, which might explain the large number of protest bids. |
| Keywords: | Contingent Valuation, Travel Cost Model, Forest Recreation. |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp190&r=env |
| By: | E. Zabbini |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:584&r=env |