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on Environmental Economics |
| By: | Bouwe R. Dijkstra (University of Nottingham); Dirk T.G. Rübbelke (Chemnitz University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We examine an incentive scheme for a group of agents, where all agents are rewarded if the group meets its target. If the group does not meet its target, only the agents that meet their individual target are rewarded. In environmental policy, the EU burden sharing agreement and the UK Climate Change Agreements feature this incentive scheme. There is only a difference in outcome between group and individual rewards if emissions are stochastic. Group rewards generally lead to higher expected emissions than individual rewards. The attraction of the group reward scheme may lie in its fairness and its tough-looking targets. |
| Keywords: | Team Incentive Scheme, Stochastic Pollution, UK Climate Change Agreements |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.44&r=env |
| By: | Secchi, Silvia; Babcock, Bruce A. |
| Abstract: | Growing demand for corn due to the expansion of ethanol has increased concerns that environmentally sensitive lands retired from agricultural production into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) will be cropped again. Iowa produces more ethanol than any other state in the United States, and it also produces the most corn. Thus, an examination of the impacts of higher crop prices on CRP land in Iowa can give insight into what we might expect nationally in the years ahead if crop prices remain high. We construct CRP land supply curves for various corn prices and then estimate the environmental impacts of cropping CRP land through the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. EPIC provides edge-of-field estimates of soil erosion, nutrient loss, and carbon sequestration. We find that incremental impacts increase dramatically as higher corn prices bring into production more and more environmentally fragile land. Maintaining current levels of environmental quality will require substantially higher spending levels. Even allowing for the cost savings that would accrue as CRP land leaves the program, a change in targeting strategies will likely be required to ensure that the most sensitive land does not leave the program. |
| Keywords: | agricultural markets, Conservation Reserve Program, environmental quality. |
| Date: | 2007–05–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:12804&r=env |
| By: | Klaus Keller (Penn State University Park); Louise I. Miltich (Penn State University Park); Alexander Robinson (Penn State University Park); Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | Analyzing the risks of anthropogenic climate change requires sound probabilistic projections of CO2 emissions. Previous projections have broken important new ground, but many rely on out-of-range projections, are limited to the 21st century, or provide only implicit probabilistic information. Here we take a step towards resolving these problems by assimilating globally aggregated observations of population size, economic output, and CO2 emissions over the last three centuries into a simple economic model. We use this model to derive probabilistic projections of business-as-usual CO2 emissions to the year 2150. We demonstrate how the common practice to limit the calibration timescale to decades can result in biased and overconfident projections. The range of several CO2 emission scenarios (e.g., from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios) misses potentially important tails of our projected probability density function. Studies that have interpreted the range of CO2 emission scenarios as an approximation for the full forcing uncertainty may well be biased towards overconfident climate change projections. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Dioxide, Emissions, Scenarios, Data Assimilation, Markov Chain Monte Carlo |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.39&r=env |
| By: | David Anthoff (FNU, ZMK); Cameron Hepburn (University of Oxford); Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | Climate change would impact different countries differently, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. Equity-weighted estimates of the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may also change the sign of the social cost estimates. Equity weights need to be normalised. Our estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region of normalisation. A discounting error of equity weighted social cost of carbon estimates in earlier work (Tol, Energy Journal, 1999), led to an error of a factor two. Equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to the resolution of the impact estimates. Depending on the assumed intra-regional income distribution, estimates may be more than twice as high if national rather than regional impacts are aggregated. The assumed scenario is important too, not only because different scenarios have different emissions and hence warming, but also because different scenarios have different income differences, different growth rates, and different vulnerabilities. Because of this, variations in the assumed inequity aversion have little effect on the marginal damage cost in some scenarios, and a large effect in other scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Marginal Damage Costs, Climate Change, Equity |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.43&r=env |
| By: | Jie He (GREDI, Département d'économique, Université de Sherbrooke); Paul MAKDISSI (Departement d’´economique and CEREF, Universite de Sherbrooke, 2550 boulevard de l’Universite, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada, J1K 2R1); Quentin WODON (LCSPR, World Bank, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA) |
| Abstract: | We develop two public choice models in which environmental regulation is determined endogenously in the presence of agents who are heterogenous in wealth or income. In the first model, regulation is determined by a majority vote, and an increase in inequality induces an increase in environmental standard. In the second model, the environmental standard is chosen by a corrupt bureaucrat. In that model, while the impact of an increase in inequality on the environmental standard is uncertain, a higher level of corruption always reduces the quality of environmental regulation. An empirical analysis using cross-country data confirms the implication of both models. |
| Keywords: | Environmental regulation, corruption, inequality |
| JEL: | Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:07-13&r=env |
| By: | Reyer Gerlagh (University of Manchester); Snorre Kverndokk (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research); Knut Einar Rosendahl (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the impact of endogenous technology through research and development (R&D) and learning by doing (LbD) on the timing of environmental policy. We develop two models, the first with R&D and the second with LbD. We study the interaction between environmental taxes and innovation externalities in a dynamic economy and prove policy equivalence between the second-best R&D and the LbD model. Our analysis shows that the difference found in the literature between optimal environmental policy in R&D and LbD models can partly be traced back to the set of policy instruments available, rather than being directly linked to the source of technological innovation. Arguments for early action in LbD models carry over to a second-best R&D setting. We show that environmental taxes should be high compared to the Pigouvian levels when an abatement industry is developing. We illustrate our analysis through numerical simulations on climate change policy. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Policy, Technological Change, Research and Development, Learning by Doing |
| JEL: | H21 O30 Q42 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.35&r=env |
| By: | Anastasios Xepapadeas (University of Crete); E. Tzouvelekas (University of Crete); D. Vouvaki (University of Crete) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether the use of the environment, proxied by CO2 emissions, as a factor of production contributes, in addition to conventional factors of production to output growth, and thus it should be accounted for in total factor productivity growth (TFPG) measurement and deducted from the .residual. A theoretical framework of growth accounting methodology with environment as a factor of production which is unpaid in the absence of environmental policy is developed. Using data from a panel of 23 OECD countries, we show that emissions. growth have a statistically significant contribution to the growth of output, that emission augmenting technical change is present along with labor augmenting technical change, and that part of output growth which is traditionally attributed to technical change should be attributed to the use of the environment as a not fully compensated factor of production. Our results point towards the need for developing a concept of "Green Growth Accounting". |
| Keywords: | Solow Residual, Total Factor Productivity Growth, Growth, Environment, Green Growth Accounting |
| JEL: | O47 Q2 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.38&r=env |
| By: | Richard S.J. Tol (ESRI) |
| Abstract: | A simulation model of international tourist flows is used to estimate the impact of a carbon tax on aviation fuel. The effect of the tax on travel behaviour is small: a global $1000/tC would change travel behaviour to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation by 0.8%. This is because the imposed tax is probably small relative to the air fare. A $1000/tC tax would less than double air fares, and have a smaller impact on the total cost of the holiday. In addition, the price elasticity is low. A carbon tax on aviation fuel would particularly affect long-haul flights, because of high emissions, and short-haul flights, because of the emission during take-off and landing. Medium distance flights would be affected least. This implies that tourist destinations that rely heavily on short-haul flights (that is, islands near continents, such as Ireland) or on intercontinental flights (e.g., Africa) will see a decline in international tourism numbers, while other destinations may see international arrivals rise. If the tax is only applied to the European Union, EU tourists would stay closer to home so that EU tourism would grow at the expense of other destinations. Sensitivity analyses reveal that the qualitative insights are robust. A carbon tax on aviation fuel would have little effect on international tourism, and little effect on emissions. |
| Keywords: | International Tourism, Tax, Carbon Dioxide, Aviation |
| JEL: | L83 L93 Q54 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.34&r=env |
| By: | Karen Mayor; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | We use a model of domestic and international tourist numbers and flows to estimate the impact of the EU-US Open Skies agreement that is to take effect in March 2008. The Open Aviation Area will result in increased competition between transatlantic carriers and consequently falls in the cost of flights, therefore we look at the change in visitor numbers from the US into the EU and corresponding CO2 emissions. We find that passenger numbers arriving from the US to the EU will increase by approximately 1% and 14% depending on the magnitude of the price reductions. This increase in passenger numbers does not however result in a corresponding rise in emissions as arrivals into other countries from the US fall by a comparable amount. The number of tourist arrivals from the US to countries outside of the EU will fall and overall emissions would then increase by a maximum of 0.7%. If we assume that domestic holidays and foreign holidays are close substitutes these effects are strengthened and US passengers switch from domestic trips to foreign destinations as airfares converge. |
| Keywords: | International tourism, open skies agreement, carbon dioxide emissions |
| JEL: | L83 L93 Q54 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:134&r=env |
| By: | Jyotsna Jalan (Centre for Studies in Social Sciences, Calcutta); E.Somanathan (Planning Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi); Saraswata Chaudhuri (University of Washington) |
| Abstract: | The demand for environmental quality is often presumed to be low in developing countries due to poverty. Less attention has been paid to the possibility that lack of awareness about the adverse health effects of environmental pollution could also keep the demand low. We use a household survey from urban India to estimate the effects of awareness proxies such as schooling and exposure to mass media controlling for wealth on home water purification. Average costs of different home purification methods are used to get estimates on willingness to pay for better drinking water quality. We find that our awareness proxy measures have statistically significant effects on adoption of different home purification methods and therefore, on willingness to pay. These effects are similar in magnitude to the wealth effects. |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2007-09&r=env |
| By: | Reyer Gerlagh (University of Manchester); Onno Kuik (Vrije Universiteit) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the effect of international technology spillovers on carbon leakage. We first develop and analyse two simple competing models for carbon leakage. The first model represents the pollution haven hypothesis. It focuses on the international competition between firms that produce energy-intensive goods. The second model highlights the role of a globally integrated carbon-energy market. We calculate formulas for the leakage rates in both models and, through meta-analysis, show that the second model captures best the major mechanisms reported in the CGE literature on carbon leakage. We extend this model with endogenous energy-saving technology and international technology spillovers. This feature is shown to decrease carbon leakage. We build-in the endogenous energy-saving technology in a large CGE model and verify that the results from the formal model carry over. Carbon leakage becomes negative for moderate levels of international technology spillover. |
| Keywords: | arbon-Leakage, Climate Policy, Induced Technological Change; Trade and Environment |
| JEL: | F18 O39 Q25 Q4 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.33&r=env |
| By: | Massimiliano Mazzanti (University of Ferrara); Roberto Zoboli (CERIS-CNR Milan & Catholic University of Milan) |
| Abstract: | The paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between environmental efficiency and labour productivity using industry level data. We first provide a critical and extensive discussion around the interconnected issues of environmental efficiency and performance, firm performances and labour productivity, and environmental and non-environmental innovation dynamics. The most recent literature dealing with environmental innovation, environmental regulations and economic performances is taken as reference. We then test a newly adapted EKC hypothesis, by verifying the correlation between the two trends of environmental efficiency (productivity, namely sector emission on added value) and labour productivity (added value on employees) over a dynamic path. We exploit official NAMEA data sources for Italy over 1990-2002 for 29 sectoral branches. The period is crucial since environmental issues and then environmental policies came into the arena, and a restructuring of the economy occurred. It is thus interesting to assess the extent to which capital investments for the economy as a whole are associated with a positive or negative correlation between environmental efficiency of productive branches and labour productivity, often claimed by mainstream theory dealing with innovation in environmental economics. We believe that on the basis of the theoretical and empirical analyses focusing on innovation paths, firm performances and environmental externalities, there are good reasons to expect a positive correlation between environmental and labour productivities, or in alternative terms a negative correlation between mission intensity of production and labour productivity. The tested hypothesis is crucial within the long standing discussion over the potential trade-off or complementarity between environmental and labour productivity, strictly associated with sectoral and national technological innovation paths. The main added value of the paper is the analysis of the aforementioned hypothesis by exploiting a panel data set based on official NAMEA sectoral disaggregated accounting data, providing both cross section heterogeneity and a sufficient time span. We find that for most emissions, if not all, a negative correlation emerges between labour productivity and environmental productivity. Though this trend appears driven by the macro sectors services, manufacturing and industry, this evidence is not homogenous across emissions. In some cases U-shapes arise, mainly for services, and the assessment of Turning Points is crucial. Manufacturing and industry, all in all, seem to have a stronger weight. Overall, then, labour productivity dynamics seem to be complementary to a decreasing emission intensity of productive processes. The extent to which this evidence derives from endogenous market forces, industrial restructuring and/or from policy effects is scope for further research. The relative role of manufacturing and services in explaining this pattern is also to be analysed in future empirical analyses. In addition, the role of capital stocks and trade openness are extensions which may add value to future analyses carried out on the same NAMEA dataset. |
| Keywords: | Decoupling, NAMEA Emissions, Labour Productivity, Sectoral Added Value, Kuznets Curves, Environmental Efficiency |
| JEL: | C23 Q38 Q56 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.40&r=env |
| By: | Reichhuber, Anke; Requate, Till |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a cost-benefit analysis of three different use systems for the remaining cloud forests in Ethiopia which at present are being depleted at a rate of 8% per year. These use systems are traditional conversion to crop land, sustainable management of the forest (e.g. by growing high-quality semi-forest coffee), and strict protection. We find that conversion to cropland yields the highest net present income value for the local population, and at discount rates of 10% is even in the best interests of the country. For discount rates of at 5% or lower, sustainable forest use is in the best interests of the country. Taking into account the global benefits of biodiversity conservation and carbon storage, sustainable forest management yields the highest total economic value. |
| Keywords: | cost-benefit analysis, biodiversity, coffee, Ethiopia |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauewp:5535&r=env |
| By: | Orley C. Ashenfelter (Princeton University); Karl Storchmann (Whitman College) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we provide a simple, credible method for assessing the effects of climate change on the quality of agricultural land and then apply this method using a rich set of data on the vineyards of the Mosel Valley in Germany. The basic idea is to use a simple model of solar radiation to measure the amount of energy collected by a vineyard, and then to establish the econometric relation between energy and vineyard quality. Coupling this hedonic function with the elementary physics of heat and energy permits a straightforward calculation of the impact of any climate change on vineyard quality (and prices). We show that the variability in vineyard quality in this region is due primarily to the extent to which each vineyard is able to capture radiant solar energy, so that these data provide a particularly credible “experiment” for identifying and measuring the appropriate hedonic equation. Our empirical results indicate that the vineyards of the Mosel Valley will increase in value under a scenario of global warming, and perhaps by a considerable amount. Vineyard and grape prices increase more than proportionally with greater ripeness, so that we estimate a 3°C increase in temperature would more than double the value of this vineyard area, while a 1°C increase would increase prices by about 20 percent. |
| Date: | 2006–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:cepsud:130ashenfelter&r=env |
| By: | Arief Anshory Yusuf (Australian National University, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies); Budy P. Resosudarmo (Australian National University, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper is motivated by the common argument that clean air is a luxury good and has much less or even no value in a less developed country. It applies a hedonic property value analysis, a method commonly used to infer the value of clean air in developed countries, using a combination of data on house values and their characteristics from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, and data of the ambient level of six different pollutants in Jakarta, Indonesia. The result suggests that air quality may affect property value in Jakarta, indicating a preference toward environmental amenities. Moreover, this study is one of the first hedonic studies that may potentially give comparable estimates of the value of clean air in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Hedonic Prices, Air Pollution, Indonesia |
| JEL: | R22 H40 Q21 C14 |
| Date: | 2006–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anu:eenwps:0601&r=env |
| By: | Sibel Sirakaya; Stephen Turnovsky; Nedim Alemdar |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2007-01&r=env |
| By: | von Döllen, Andreas; Requate, Till |
| Abstract: | We study long-term incentives for polluting and regulated firms to invest in advanced abatement technologies, when some new technology is available but an even better technology will be expected in the future. Firms can invest only once. We find that depending on the adoption fixed costs all possible combinations of investment patters can occur in social optimum. Further we show that if the regulator anticipates the arrival of the new technology he can decentralize socially optimal allocation by charging Pigouvian tax or issuing tradable permits through announcing his policy and setting ex post optimal policy levels, after firms have invested. |
| Keywords: | Emission taxes, tradable permits, option value theory, uncertainty, Poisson distribution |
| JEL: | L5 O31 Q55 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cauewp:5532&r=env |
| By: | Andreas Freytag (University of Jena, School of Busniess and Economics); Christoph Vietze (University of Jena, School of Busniess and Economics) |
| Abstract: | We analyze whether biodiversity is increasing the receipts of tourism and beneficial for Least Developed Countries (LDCs). The underlying assumption is that a rich biodiversity provides a comparative advantage for most LDCs. We use a simple trade theory framework. The model is supported by an empirical analysis. The main findings are that first LDCs seem to have a comparative advantage in (sustainable) tourism, that second incidence of birds as the probably best explored taxonomic group has a positive impact on inbound tourism receipts per capita, and that third the rate of endangered to total birds is negatively influencing tourism receipts. |
| Keywords: | tourism, economic growth, biodiversity conservation |
| JEL: | F18 Q26 |
| Date: | 2007–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2007-012&r=env |
| By: | Eatzaz Ahmed (Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad); Abdul Sattar (Ministry of Finance, Islamabad) |
| Abstract: | The demand for environmental goods is often low in developing countries. The major causes are awareness regarding the contamination of water and poverty, but less attention has been paid to the former reason. We use a household survey from Hyderabad city and estimate the contribution of awareness and income on households’ water purification behaviour. The study finds out that measures of awareness such as different level of schooling of decision-makers and household heads and their exposure to mass media have statistically significant effects on home purification methods for drinking water, while other members of households can effect this behaviour only when they get higher levels of schooling. |
| Keywords: | Demand, Awareness, Safe Drinking Water, Logit Model, Probit Model |
| JEL: | D12 D13 D31 Q21 Q25 Q51 R21 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2007:21&r=env |
| By: | Joseph DOUCET; Jacques PERCEBOIS |
| Abstract: | Cet article présente trois mécanismes destinés à réduire les impacts environnementaux négatifs liés à la production et à la consommation d’énergie : le mécanisme des certificats noirs (permis échangeables d’émissions de CO2), celui des certificats verts (permis échangeables attestant de la production d’une certaine quantité d’électricité verte) et celui des certificats blancs (permis échangeables prouvant des efforts d’économies d’énergie dans le secteur résidentiel et tertiaire). On s’intéresse aux interactions réciproques entre ces trois marchés potentiels de certificats et on s’efforce de voir comment le régulateur doit gérer simultanément ces trois marchés, sachant que des stratégies opportunistes sont possibles de la part des divers opérateurs. |
| Keywords: | Certificats, Permis d'émissions, Electricité, Environnement |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mop:credwp:07.69&r=env |
| By: | Fortin, Ines (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria); Fuss, Sabine (University of Maastricht/UNU-Merit, Maastricht, The Netherlands); Hlouskova, Jaroslava (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria); Khabarov, Nikolay (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria); Obersteiner, Michael (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria); Szolgayova, Jana (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to combine a real options framework with portfolio optimization techniques and to apply this new framework to investments in the electricity sector. In particular, a real options model is used to assess the adoption decision of particular technologies under uncertainty. These technologies are coal-fired power plants, biomassfired power plants and onshore wind mills, and they are representative of technologies based on fossil fuels, biomass and renewables, respectively. The return distributions resulting from this analysis are then used as an input to a portfolio optimization, where the measure of risk is the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). |
| Keywords: | Portfolio optimization, CVaR, climate change policy, uncertainty, real options, electricity, investments |
| JEL: | C61 D81 D92 G11 Q4 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:209&r=env |
| By: | Anna Alberini (AREC, University of Maryland); Alberto Longo (Queen's University Belfast) |
| Abstract: | We use contingent valuation to place a value on the conservation of built cultural heritage sites in Armenia. When we present the hypothetical scenario in the questionnaire we spell out what would happen to the monuments in the absence of the government conservation program. We posit that respondents combine such information with their own prior beliefs, which the questionnaire also elicits, and that the WTP for the good or program is likely to be affected by these updated beliefs. We propose a Bayesian updating model of prior beliefs, and empirically implement it using the data from our survey. We find that uncertainty about what would happen to the monument in the absence of the program results in lower WTP amounts. |
| Keywords: | Valuation of Cultural Heritage Sites, Non-Market Valuation, Contingent Valuation, Bayesian Updating, Prior Beliefs |
| JEL: | Z10 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.36&r=env |
| By: | Natalia Zugravu (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - [CNRS : UMR8174] - [Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I]); Katrin Millock (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - [CNRS : UMR8174] - [Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I]); Gérard Duchêne (ERUDITE - [Université Paris XII Val de Marne]) |
| Abstract: | Les pays en transition ont considérablement réduit leurs émissions de CO2 entre 1996 et 2001. Cette performance est-elle due à l'application d'une politique volontariste de la part des gouvernements, ou bien est-elle un simple effet collatéral de la transformation industrielle majeure subie par ces pays ? Le but de cette étude est de répondre à cette question en construisant un modèle des relations complexes qui s'établissent entre la qualité de l'environnement, la croissance et la sévérité de la réglementation environnementale. Nous développons deux équations structurelles pour la demande (émissions) et l'offre (politique) de pollution. L'équation de l'offre prend en compte la qualité institutionnelle du pays (le contrôle de la corruption et la stabilité politique), aussi bien que les préférences des consommateurs pour la qualité de l'environnement, représentées dans cette étude par le revenu net par habitant et le niveau du chômage. Pour une analyse comparative, le système de ces équations simultanées est testé empiriquement par la méthode d'estimation des triples moindres carrés, pour un échantillon composé de trois groupes de pays : pays de l'Europe Centrale et de l'Est, de l'Europe de l'Ouest et pays émergents. Nos résultats montrent que, toute chose égale par ailleurs, l'effet d'échelle seul aurait expliqué une augmentation de 44,6% des émissions industrielles de CO2 dans les pays en transition entre 1996 et 2001. L'effet de composition aurait déterminé une réduction de 16% de ces émissions. Finalement, l'effet technique a eu l'impact marginal le plus important, correspondant à une réduction de 37,4% des émissions industrielles de CO2. |
| Keywords: | Transition, émissions CO2, politique environnementale, effet d'échelle, de composition et technique. |
| Date: | 2007–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00143448_v1&r=env |
| By: | Allen Bellas; Ian Lange |
| Date: | 2006–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udb:wpaper:uwec-2006-25&r=env |