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on Environmental Economics |
| By: | Josef Falkinger; Volker Grossmann |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a model in which the interaction of entrepreneurial investments and power of the owners of land or other natural resources determines structural change and economic development. A more equal distribution of natural resources promotes structural change and growth through two channels: First, by weakening oligopsony power of owners and thereby easing entrepreneurial investments for credit-constrained individuals whose investment possibilities depend on their income earned in the primary goods sector. Second, by shifting the distribution of political power from resource owners towards the entrepreneurial elite, resulting in economic policy and institutions which are more conducive to entrepreneurship and productivity progress. We argue that these hypotheses are consistent with a large body of historical evidence from the Americas and with evidence on transition economies. |
| Keywords: | credit constraints, distribution, economic development, entrepreneurship, institutions, oligopsony power, political elites |
| JEL: | H50 O10 |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1562&r=env |
| By: | Duflo, Esther; Pande, Rohini |
| Abstract: | The construction of large dams is one of the most costly and controversial forms of public infrastructure investment in developing countries, but little is known about their impact. This paper studies the productivity and distributional effects of large dams in India. To account for endogenous placement of dams we use GIS data and the fact that river gradient affects a district's suitability for dams to provide instrumental variable estimates of their impact. We find that, in a district where a dam is built, agricultural production does not increase but poverty does. In contrast, districts located downstream from the dam benefit from increased irrigation and see agricultural production increase and poverty fall. Overall, our estimates suggest that large dam construction in India is a marginally cost-effective investment with significant distributional implications, and has, in aggregate, increased poverty. |
| Keywords: | dams; development planning; program evaluation |
| JEL: | H23 H43 O12 O21 |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5325&r=env |
| By: | Truong P. Truong; Claudia Kemfert |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp529&r=env |
| By: | Claudia Kemfert; Truong P. Truong |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp530&r=env |
| By: | Raúl O'Ryan; Carlos J. de Miguel; Sebastian Miller |
| Abstract: | Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are a powerful economic tool for multidimensional/multi-sectoral analysis. They improve traditional input-output analysis generating quantities and prices endogenously and reflecting market incentives. They complement partial equilibrium analysis with a broader scope of analysis and the quantification of indirect and often non-intuitive effects. Environmental applications of CGE models include trade and environment, climate change, energy problems, natural resources management and environmental regulation analysis. The ECOGEM-Chile model described in this paper can be used to analyse impacts on macro, sectoral, social and environmental (air, water and land pollutants) variables of different economic, social or/and environmental policies, such as trade policies, environmental taxes, external price shocks, among others. The model incorporates the recently released 1996 input/output matrix as well as the most recent information on wages and income. In the specific application developed here, the model is used to analyse direct and indirect impacts on the Chilean economy of increasing fuel taxes by 100%. Additionally a trade policy of reducing tariffs to compensate the increase in revenues of these taxes is simulated. The tariff reductions are in line with the current Chilean trade policy. Winners and loser from both exercises are identified as well as the main determinants of the results. |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edj:ceauch:211&r=env |
| By: | Luis A. Cifuentes; Alan J. Krupnick; Raúl O'Ryan; Michael A. Toman |
| Abstract: | This working paper is being published with the objective of contributing to the debate on a topic of importance to the region, and to elicit comments and suggestions from interested parties. This paper has not undergone consideration by the SDS Management Team. As such, it does not reflect the official position of the Inter-American Development Bank. |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edj:ceauch:212&r=env |
| By: | Chiara M. Travisi (DIG, Politecnico di Milano); Roberto Camagni (DIG, Politecnico di Milano) |
| Abstract: | Sound empirical and quantitative analysis on the relationship between different patterns of urban expansion and environmental or social costs of mobility are still very rare in Europe and the few studies available provide only a qualitative discussion on this. Recently, Camagni et al. (2002) have performed an empirical analysis on the metropolitan area of Milan, aimed at establishing whether different patterns of urban expansion generate different levels of land consumption and heterogeneous impacts of urban mobility. Results confirm the expectation that higher environmental impact of mobility is associated with more extensive and sprawling urban development, more recent urbanisation processes and residential specialisation. The present paper enlarges further the empirical analysis to seven Italian metropolitan areas (namely, Bari, Florence, Naples, Padua, Perugia, Potenza and Turin) to corroborate previous results for the Italian context. The novelty of the present paper is threefold. Firstly, we are interested in exploring the changes occurred to the intensity of the mobility impact across a ten-year period, from 1981 to 1991, corresponding to the Italian economic boom years. Secondly, using an econometric analysis in cross-section, we consider several metropolitan areas at once, being therefore able to explore whether there are significant differences in the way the model explains variations in the mobility impact across various Italian urban areas. Finally, we propose a conceptual interpretation of the causal chain in the explanation of the mobility impact intensity and we test it using Causal Path Analysis. |
| Keywords: | Urban mobility, Sprawl, Environmental sustainability, Collective costs |
| JEL: | Q56 R14 R41 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.102&r=env |
| By: | Livingstone S. Luboobi (Makerere University); Joseph Y.T. Mugisha (Makerere University) |
| Abstract: | Three-quarters of the world’s AIDS population lives in Sub-Saharan Africa; most have no access to lifesaving drugs, testing facilities or even basic preventative health care. One of the major factors inhibiting medical professionals in Africa from treating this disease is the inability to access vast areas of the continent with adequately equipped medical facilities. To meet this need, Architecture for Humanity challenged the world’s architects and health care professionals to submit designs for a mobile HIV/AIDS health clinic. The pandemic is changing the demographic structure of Africa and wiping out life expectancy gains. Indeed, in many African countries, life expectancy is dropping from more than 60 years to around 45 years or even less. In this paper, we highlight the uniqueness of factors associated with HIV/AIDS pandemic in Africa and present its impact and challenges. |
| Keywords: | HIV/AIDS, Africa |
| JEL: | I18 J11 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.103&r=env |
| By: | Anna Alberini (University of Maryland); Aline Chiabai (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | We use contingent valuation to elicit WTP for a reduction in the risk of dying for cardiovascular and respiratory causes, the most important causes of premature mortality associated with heat wave and air pollution, among the Italian public. The purpose of this study is three-fold. First, we obtain WTP and VSL figures that can be applied when estimating the benefits of heat advisories, other policies that reduce the mortality effects of extreme heat, and environmental policies that reduce the risk of dying for cardiovascular and respiratory causes. Second, our experimental study design allows us to examine the sensitivity of WTP to the size of the risk reduction. Third, we examine whether the WTP of populations that are especially sensitive to extreme heat and air pollution—such as the elderly, those in compromised health, and those living alone and/or physically impaired—is different from that of other individuals. We find that WTP, and hence the VSL, depends on the risk reduction, respondent age (via the baseline risk), and respondent health status. WTP increases with the size of the risk reduction, but is not strictly proportional to it. All else the same, older individuals are willing to pay less for a given risk reduction than younger individuals of comparable characteristics. Poor health, however, tends to raise WTP, so that the appropriate VSL of elderly individuals in poor health may be quite large. Our results support the notion that the VSL is “individuated.” |
| Keywords: | Contingent valuation, Willingness to Pay, Mortality risk reductions, Value of a Statistical life, Scope test, Cardiovascular and respiratory risks, Heat waves, Heat advisories, Adaptation to climate change, Air pollution, Premature mortality |
| JEL: | Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.105&r=env |
| By: | Anna Alberini (University of Maryland); Aline Chiabai (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Lucija Muehlenbachs (AREC, University of Maryland) |
| Abstract: | We use conjoint choice questions to ask public health and climate change experts, contacted at professional meetings in 2003 and 2004, which of two hypothetical countries, A or B, they deem to have the higher adaptive capacity to certain effects of climate change on human health. These hypothetical countries are described by a vector of seven attributes, including per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, measures of the health status of the population, the health care system, and access to information. Probit models indicate that our respondents regard per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, universal health care coverage, and high access to information as important determinants of adaptive capacity. A universal-coverage health care system and a high level of access to information are judged to be equivalent to $12,000-$14,000 in per capita income. We use the estimated coefficients and country sociodemographics to construct an index of adaptive capacity for several countries. In panel-data regressions, this index is a good predictor of mortality in climatic disasters, even after controlling for other determinants of sensitivity and exposure, and for per capita income. We conclude that our conjoint choice questions provide a novel and promising approach to eliciting expert judgments in the climate change arena. |
| Keywords: | Adaptive capacity, Climate change, Human health effects, Extreme events, Heat waves, Vector-borne illnesses, Conjoint choice, Vulnerability, Sensitivity |
| JEL: | Q54 I18 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.106&r=env |
| By: | Benno Torgler (Leitner Program in International & Comparative Political Economy); Maria A. Garcia-Valiñas (University of Oviedo) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates empirically the determinants of individuals’ attitudes towards preventing environmental damage in Spain using data from the World Values Survey and European Values Survey for the periods 1990, 1995 and 1999/2000. Compared to many previous studies, we present a richer set of independent variables and found that strongly neglected variables such as political interest and social capital have a strong impact on individuals’ preferences to prevent environmental damage. An interesting aspect in our study is the ability to investigate environmental preferences over time. The results show strong differences over time. Finally, using disaggregated data for Spanish regions, we also find significant regional differences. |
| Keywords: | Environment, Regional and time preferences, Political interest, Social capital |
| JEL: | Q26 R22 Z13 I21 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.110&r=env |
| By: | Alberto Longo (University of Bath); Anna Alberini (AREC, University of Maryland and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | Using the hedonic pricing approach, we investigate how the information released on public registries of contaminated and potentially contaminated sites affects nearby commercial and industrial properties in Baltimore, Maryland. We find that commercial and industrial properties are virtually unaffected by proximity to a site with a history of contamination. Knowing that the site is no longer considered contaminated does not have a rebound effect on property prices either. We also find that urban economic development policies, such as Empowerment Zones and Enterprise Zones, have little effect on property values. In sum, brownfield properties in Baltimore are not particularly attractive investments for developers, and there is little potential for self-sustaining cleanup based on appropriate fiscal incentives, such as Tax Increment Financing. It is doubtful that “one size fits all” measures to encourage the cleanup of contaminated sites can be successful in this context. |
| Keywords: | Contaminated sites registries, Distance to contaminated sites, Hedonic pricing model, Brownfields |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 R33 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.111&r=env |
| By: | Mikel González (University of Basque Country); Rob Dellink (Wageningen University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the economic effects of CO2 emission reductions in the Basque Country (Spain) using an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model with specific attention to environment-energy-economy interactions. Environmental policy is implemented through a system of tradable pollution permits that the government auctions. The costs of different levels of CO2 abatement are discussed, focusing on the variations of macroeconomic, sectoral and environment-energy variables. Results show that the costs for achieving the Kyoto targets can remain limited if the appropriate combination of changes in fuel-mix and restructuring of the economy is induced. |
| Keywords: | Applied general equilibrium, Climate change, Tradable pollution permits, Basque country |
| JEL: | D58 H21 Q20 Q48 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.113&r=env |
| By: | Gilles Lafforgue (Institut National d’Horticulture); Walid Oueslati (Institut National d’Horticulture) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of environmental policy on the farmer’s soil optimal management. We consider a dynamic economic model of soil erosion where the intensity use of inputs allows the farmer to control soil losses. Therefore, inputs use induces a pollution which is accentuated by the soil fragility. We show, at the steady state, that the environmental tax induces a more conservative farmer behavior for soil, but in some cases it can exacerbate pollution. These effects can be moderated when farmers introduce abatement activity. |
| Keywords: | Soil erosion, Pollution, Environmental policy, Optimal soil conservation, Abatement activities |
| JEL: | Q12 Q24 Q28 Q52 H23 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.114&r=env |
| By: | Martin D. Smith (Duke University); Larry B. Crowder (Nicholas School of the Environment and Earth Sciences, Duke University Marine Lab) |
| Abstract: | Valuing ecosystem services with microeconomic underpinnings presents challenges because these services typically constitute nonmarket values and contribute to human welfare indirectly through a series of ecological pathways that are dynamic, nonlinear, and difficult to quantify and link to appropriate economic spatial and temporal scales. This paper develops and demonstrates a method to value a portion of ecosystem services when a commercial fishery is dependent on the quality of estuarine habitat. Using a lumped-parameter, dynamic open access bioeconomic model that is spatially explicit and includes predator-prey interactions, this paper quantifies part of the value of improved ecosystem function in the Neuse River Estuary when nutrient pollution is reduced. Specifically, it traces the effects of nitrogen loading on the North Carolina commercial blue crab fishery by modeling the response of primary production and the subsequent impact on hypoxia (low dissolved oxygen). Hypoxia, in turn, affects blue crabs and their preferred prey. The discounted present value fishery rent increase from a 30% reduction in nitrogen loadings in the Neuse is $2.56 million, though this welfare estimate is fairly sensitive to some parameter values. Surprisingly, this number is not sensitive to initial conditions. |
| Keywords: | Open access, Predator-prey, Hypoxia, Habitat-dependent fisheries |
| JEL: | Q22 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.115&r=env |
| By: | Kurt Schnier (University of Rhode Island); Dan Holland (Gulf of Maine Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | Fisheries managers in the United States are required to identify and mitigate the adverse impacts of fishing activity on essential fish habitat (EFH). There are additional concerns that the viability of noncommercial species, animals that are habitat dependent and/or are themselves constituents of fishery habitat may still be threatened. We consider a cap-and-trade system for habitat conservation, individual habitat quotas for fisheries, to achieve habitat conservation and species protection goals cost effectively. Individual quotas of habitat impact units (HIUs) would be distributed to fishers with an aggregate quota set to maintain a target habitat “stock” of EFH conservation. Using a dynamic, spatially explicit fishery simulation model we explore the efficiency and cost effectiveness of an IHQ policy versus alternative marine protected area (MPA) configurations, at reducing the risk of extinguishing a habitat dependent species of unknown spatial distribution. Our findings indicate that an IHQ policy with a conservatively established habitat target is better suited to the protection of non-target species than a rotating or fixed MPA policy. |
| Keywords: | Fisheries management, Individual transferable quota, ITQ, Individual habitat quota, IHQ, Essential fish habitat, EFH, Marine protected areas, MPA, Non-target species |
| JEL: | Q20 Q22 |
| Date: | 2005–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.116&r=env |
| By: | Socrates Kypreos (Paul Scherrer Institute) |
| Abstract: | Two stylized backstop systems with endogenous technological learning formulations (ETL) are introduced in MERGE: one for the electric and the other for the non-electric markets. Then the model is applied to analyze the impacts of ETL on carbon-mitigation policy, contrasting the resulting impacts with the situation without learning. As the model considers endogenous technological change in the energy sector only some exogenous key parameters defining the production function are varied together with the assumed learning rates to check the robustness of our results. Based on model estimations and the sensitivity analyses we conclude that increased commitments for the development of new technologies to advance along their learning curves has a potential for substantial reductions in the cost of climate mitigation helping to reach safe concentrations of carbon in the atmosphere. |
| Keywords: | Climate change stabilization policies, Non-linear optimization, Induced technological change, Energy and macroeconomy |
| JEL: | C61 O30 Q42 Q43 |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.123&r=env |
| By: | Fuminori Sano (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth); Keigo Akimoto (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth); Takashi Homma (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth); Toshimasa Tomoda (Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth) |
| Abstract: | In this study, cost-effective technological options to stabilize CO2 concentrations at 550, 500, and 450 ppmv are evaluated using a world energy systems model of linear programming with a high regional resolution. This model treats technological change endogenously for wind power, photovoltaics, and fuel-cell vehicles, which are technologies of mass production and are considered to follow the “learning by doing” process. Technological changes induced by climate policies are evaluated by maintaining the technological changes at the levels of the base case wherein there is no climate policy. The results achieved through model analyses include 1) cost-effective technological portfolios, including carbon capture and storage, marginal CO2 reduction costs, and increases in energy system cost for three levels of stabilization and 2) the effect of the induced technological change on the above mentioned factors. A sensitivity analysis is conducted with respect to the learning rate. |
| Keywords: | Energy systems model, Global warming, Technological portfolios, Technological changes |
| JEL: | C61 O33 Q41 Q42 |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.124&r=env |
| By: | Reyer Gerlagh (IVM/VU) |
| Abstract: | We assess the effect of ITC in a global growth model, DEMETER-1CCS, with learning by doing where energy savings, an energy transition, and carbon capturing and sequestration (CCS) are the main options for emissions reductions. The model accounts for technology based on learning by doing embodied in capital installed in previous periods. We have run five scenarios, one baseline scenario in which climate change policy is assumed absent, and four stabilization scenarios in which atmospheric CO2 concentrations are stabilized at 550, 500, 450, and 400 ppmv. We find that the timing of emission reductions and the investment strategy is relatively independent of the endogeneity of technological change. The vintages structure of production is more important. But ITC reduces costs by about factor 2, though these benefits only materialize after some decades. |
| Keywords: | Energy, Carbon taxes, Endogenous technological change, Niche markets |
| JEL: | Q43 Q54 Q55 |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.126&r=env |
| By: | Adriana Ignaciuk (Wageningen University); Rob B. Dellink (Wageningen University) |
| Abstract: | By-products from agriculture and forestry can contribute to production of clean and cheap (bio)electricity. To assess the role of such multi-product crops in the response to climate policies, we present an applied general equilibrium model with special attention to biomass and multi-product crops for Poland. The potential to boost production of bioelectricity through the use of multi-product crops turns out to be limited to only 2-3% of total electricity production. Further expansion of the bioelectricity sector will have to be based on biomass crops explicitly grown for energy purposes. The competition between agriculture and biomass for scarce land remains limited, given the availability of relatively poor land types and substitution possibilities. The importance of indirect effects illustrates that the AGE framework is appropriate. |
| Keywords: | Applied general equilibrium (AGE), Biomass, Energy policy, Renewable energy |
| JEL: | D58 H23 Q28 Q42 |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.133&r=env |
| By: | Valentina Zanatta (DICAS - Politecnico di Torino); Paolo Rosato (Università di Trieste and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | Speed limits were introduced in the Lagoon of Venice in 2002 to reduce wave motion, which damages environmentally sensitive areas in the broader Lagoon as well as buildings in the city of Venice. In this paper, we estimate the welfare losses experienced by recreational boaters as a result of the speed limits. We fit a single-site travel cost model to a sample of boaters intercepted as they depart from or arrive to marinas and launching ramps on the Lagoon. Our Poisson model is corrected for truncation and endogenous stratification. We construct three measures of the price per trip, which allow us to check the sensitivity of models and welfare estimates to possible measurement errors in the opportunity cost of time. Our results are robust to the measure of price used and conservatively peg the welfare losses of boaters to €7.7-9.6 million per year. Even under conservative assumptions, the welfare losses of boaters are sufficiently large that, given current monitoring and enforcement of the speed limits, we believe there is a strong incentive for boaters to disregard the limits. |
| Keywords: | Travel cost method, Single-site model, Speed limits, Natural resources management |
| JEL: | Q26 Q28 |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.135&r=env |
| By: | Leonardo Becchetti (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Sabrina Auci (University of Rome Tor Vergata) |
| Abstract: | In our paper, we test the stability of the unadjusted and adjusted Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Our results provide evidence in favour of the significance of the adjusted EKC hypothesis in which the impact of per capita GDP on the intensity of CO2 emissions is evaluated conditionally to the effects of the energy-supply infrastructure and of additional socio-demographic variables. In this framework, the GDP-CO2 relationship appears robust to the inclusion of additional regressors and to changes in the estimation period and interval |
| Keywords: | Sustainable development, Kuznets curve, CO2 emissions |
| JEL: | Q53 |
| Date: | 2005–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.93&r=env |
| By: | Francesco Bosello (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Jian Zhang (EEE Program, Abdus Salam International Center of Theoretical Physics) |
| Abstract: | The economy-wide implications of climate change on agricultural sectors in 2050 are estimated using a static computable general equilibrium model. Peculiar to this exercise is the coupling of the economic model with a climatic model forecasting temperature increase in the relevant year and with a crop-growth model estimating climate change impact on cereal productivity. The main results of the study point out on the one hand the limited influence of climate change on world food supply and welfare; on the other hand its important distributional consequences as the stronger negative effects are concentrated on developing countries. The simulation exercise is introduced by a survey of the relevant literature. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Computable general equilibrium models, Agriculture |
| JEL: | D58 C68 N50 Q54 |
| Date: | 2005–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.94&r=env |
| By: | Anastasios Xepapadeas (University of Crete); William Brock (University of Wisconsin) |
| Abstract: | This paper extends Turing analysis to standard recursive optimal control frameworks in economics and applies it to dynamic bioeconomic problems where the interaction of coupled economic and ecological dynamics under optimal control over space creates (or destroys) spatial heterogeneity. We show how our approach reduces the analysis to a tractable extension of linearization methods applied to the spatial analog of the well known costate/state dynamics. We explicitly show the existence of a non-empty Turing space of diffusive instability by developing a linear-quadratic approximation of the original non-linear problem. We apply our method to a bioeconomic problem, but the method has more general economic applications where spatial considerations and pattern formation are important. We believe that the extension of Turing analysis and the theory associated with the dispersion relationship to recursive infinite horizon optimal control settings is new. |
| Keywords: | Spatial analysis, Pattern formation, Turing mechanism, Turing space, Pontryagin’s principle, Bioeconomics |
| JEL: | Q2 C6 |
| Date: | 2005–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.96&r=env |
| By: | Rob Dellink (Wageningen University); Michael Finus (Institute of Economic Theory and University of Hagen); Niels Olieman (Wageningen University) |
| Abstract: | Results derived from empirical analyses on the stability of climate coalitions are usually very sensitive to the large uncertainties associated with the benefits and costs of climate policies. This paper provides the methodology of Stability Likelihood that links uncertainty about benefits and costs of climate change to the stability analysis of coalitions in a stochastic, empirical setting. We show that the concept of Stability Likelihood improves upon the robustness and interpretation of stability analysis. Our numerical application is based on a modified version of the climate model STACO. It turns out that the only non-trivial coalition structure with a relatively high Stability Likelihood (around 25 percent) is a coalition between the European Union and Japan, though quantitative results depend especially on the variance in regional benefits from abatement. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Coalition formation, International environmental agreements, Uncertainty |
| JEL: | C79 H87 Q54 |
| Date: | 2005–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2005.98&r=env |
| By: | Odile Blanchard (LEPII-EPE - Laboratoire d'économie de la prospective et de l'intégration internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii-epe - CNRS : FRE2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II); Patrick Criqui (LEPII-EPE - Laboratoire d'économie de la prospective et de l'intégration internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii-epe - CNRS : FRE2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II); Alban Kitous (Enerdata S.A.); Silvana Mima (LEPII-EPE - Laboratoire d'économie de la prospective et de l'intégration internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii-epe - CNRS : FRE2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II) |
| Abstract: | Ce papier vise à analyser les interactions entre les politiques de stabilisation des concentrations de gaz à effet de serre dans l'atmosphère et les fondamentaux de la scène pétrolière mondiale, à partir de simulations du modèle POLES. La « valeur du carbone » est l'artifice de modélisation qui synthétise l'intensité des politiques climatiques. Elle constitue le signal qui déclenche les investissements de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, investissements socialement responsables au regard du défi climatique. La comparaison d'un scénario énergétique tendanciel avec un scénario de division par quatre des émissions des pays industrialisés à l'horizon 2050 permet de montrer que la conduite de politiques climatiques très ambitieuses permet à la fois de limiter le changement climatique et de gérer la question de l'épuisement des ressources mondiales d'hydrocarbures. |
| Keywords: | CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE ; POLITIQUE ENVIRONNEMENTALE ; PRIX ; CARBONE ; RESSOURCE ENERGETIQUE ; HYDROCARBURES ; SCENARIO ; MODELE POLES |
| Date: | 2005–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00006165_v1&r=env |
| By: | Nathalie Rousset (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la production et de l'intégration internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II); René Arrus (LEPII - Laboratoire d'économie de la production et de l'intégration internationale - http://www.upmf-grenoble.fr/lepii/ - CNRS : FRE2664 - Université Pierre Mendès-France - Grenoble II) |
| Abstract: | Le changement climatique fait peser des risques élevés pour l'agriculture méditerranéenne, qui pourrait voir ses rendements diminuer fortement, en liaison avec la<br />raréfaction des ressources hydriques. L'adaptation anticipative des systèmes agricoles à ces changements apparaît ainsi comme un enjeu majeur pour cette région pour le 21e siècle. |
| Keywords: | eau ; changement climatique ; agriculture ; adaptation |
| Date: | 2005–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00006235_v1&r=env |
| By: | Catherine Boemare (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées); Jean-Charles Hourcade (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - http://www.centre-cired.fr - CNRS : UMR8568 - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales;Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts;Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées) |
| Abstract: | L'utilisation d'instruments économiques dans les politiques d'environnement est un fait récent. Ce n\'est qu'à partir des années quatre-vingt que certains gouvernements commencent à écouter la critique que font les économistes de l'approche dominante fondée sur des normes et s'intéressent à leur suggestion d'utiliser, en ces matières comme en d'autres, des signaux-prix. Mais il se trouve que la façon la plus simple de lancer de tels signaux, les écotaxes, se heurte à l\'impopularité de tout ce qui touche à la fiscalité et que l'autre mode de procéder, les permis d\'émission négociables va devenir, après traduction médiatique en droits à polluer, un symbole de la marchandisation de l\'environnement. Ceci explique que le diagnostic, tôt émis par l\'OCDE (1987), de l'implementation gap dont souffrent ces instruments soit toujours d'actualité malgré l'évolution dont témoigne le tableau 1. Les économistes défendent ces outils au nom de l'efficacité, mais peut-être est-ce l'ambiguïté même de ce mot qui provoque les malentendus qui font obstacle à leur plus large utilisation. On essaiera ici de la lever en distinguant trois critères d'évaluation de ces instruments : leur fonction d'incitation pour un coût économique donné, leur coût social ultime, et leur capacité de coordination internationale. |
| Keywords: | environnement; instruments economiques; efficacite; couts; reduction de la pollution |
| Date: | 2005–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00006453_v1&r=env |
| By: | Naoki Yoshihara |
| Abstract: | We discuss intergenerational resource allocations in production economies with long-run negative externality. The long-run negative externality implies that the emission of public bads by the current generation only affects his future generation's welfare, and the current generation only suffers from the negative externality accumulated by his past generations. We introduce the basic axioms of economic efficiency, intergenerational equity, and environmental sustainability, and examine whether there exists an allocation rule which satisfies these basic axioms. Unfortunately, our answer to this question is negative. |
| JEL: | D63 D71 I31 |
| Date: | 2005–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:a467&r=env |
| By: | Stéphanie Aulong (Station biologique de la Tour du Valat and UMR LAMETA); Charles Figuières (INRA, UMR LAMETA); Robert Lifran (INRA, UMR LAMETA) |
| Abstract: | Consider a developing country that has the potential for biodiversity conservation, and developed countries that benefit from biodiversity but are not in position to produce it. From the statu quo, some incremental protections of biodiversity would be harmful for the developing country but would benefit the developed contries and the world as a whole; in other words, biodiversity protection is a global public good. The negotiation problem is then: how to organize compensation transfers from the developed countries to the developing country to sustain a higher (Pareto optimal) level of biodiversity, given that: i) each developed country has an incentive to free-ride on transfers conceded by others, ii) no supranational authority exists that has both the necessary relevant information on countries's willingness to pay for biodiversity, and the power to impose a socially beneficial profile of transfers? This paper investigates how, and to what extent, the theory of resource allocation processes can shed light into this issue, and how it can be best tailored and qualified to cope with the problem at hand. The focus is put on the incentive properties of the suggested negotiation processes, and their ability to respect countries' sovereignty. |
| Keywords: | biodiversity, negotiation processes, voting scheme, preferences revelation. |
| Date: | 2005–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iep:wpidep:0505&r=env |
| By: | Jon Olaf Olaussen (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Anders Skonhoft (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | A simple three-stage model of the Scandinavian moose (Alces alces) (young, adult female and adult male) is formulated. Fecundity is density dependent while mortality is density independent. Two different harvesting regimes are explored: hunting for meat, and trophy hunting. The paper gives an economic explanation of the biological notion of females as ‘valuable’ and males as ‘non-valuable’. The paper also demonstrates how this notion may change under shifting economic and ecological conditions. |
| Keywords: | Population model; wildlife; harvesting; trophy hunting |
| Date: | 2005–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nst:samfok:6405&r=env |
| By: | Jon Hovi og Bjart Holtsmark (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | One of the proposed alternatives to Kyoto’s cap-and-trade approach is a regime based on an internationally harmonized carbon tax. In this paper, we consider and compare the enforcement problems associated with a tax regime and a cap-and-trade regime, respectively. The paper tries to convey two main points. First, both types of regime require an effective enforcement mechanism. However, such a mechanism is unlikely to be adopted as part of a regime with full participation, because the political process leading up to its adoption tends to water down the enforcement mechanism to a point where it no longer has much bite. And even if this is somehow avoided, countries expecting compliance to be difficult or costly will almost certainly decline to sign – not to mention ratify – the resulting agreement. Second, the implications of non-compliance in a tax regime differ in important ways from the corresponding implications in a cap-and-trade regime. In a cap-and-trade regime emissions trading can make inaction legitimate for buyers of emission permits. In particular, overselling of permits by one (or a few) permit exporting countries might completely undermine the regime’s environmental effect. In a tax regime, by contrast, one country's non-compliance can not make inaction by other countries legitimate. It follows that an agreement based on a harmonized carbon tax will always have some effect, provided that at least one country complies. |
| Keywords: | Climate agreements; compliance; enforcement; emissions trading; carbon taxes. |
| JEL: | Q30 Q41 |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:436&r=env |
| By: | Bjart Holtsmark (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Global per capita CO2 emissions have been relatively stable during the last decades. It has been suggested that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its scenario makers have ignored this stability. This paper presents a simple analytical framework explaining generally the stability of global per capita CO2 emissions during the last decades. The same analytical framework, supported by numerical illustrations, indicates that this stability is unlikely to persist and that current trends in regional per capita emissions are in close agreement with the IPCC scenarios |
| Keywords: | Global carbon emissions; SRES; IPCC; scenarios. |
| JEL: | Q30 Q41 |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:438&r=env |
| By: | Deepak Shah (Gokhale Institute of Politics & Economics, B.M.C.C. Road, Deccan Gymkhana, Pune 411004, Maharashtra, INDIA) |
| Abstract: | Many states in India have initiated various measures to protect their forest resources. Maharashtra is no exception to this phenomenon. An attempt, therefore, has been made in this paper to examine the extent to which this state is successful in conserving and managing its forest resources. The main foci of attention of this study are on evaluating various forest related indicators of Maharashtra such as distribution of forest area, outturn of major and minor forest produce, income and expenditure pattern on state forestry, extent of social forestry, and afforestation, etc.The study revealed very interesting observations. One of the major observations of this study was the sharp decline in revenue receipts from state forestry, especially after the late eighties period. Very slow growth in total value of forest produce harvested and a sharp increase in total expenditure on state forestry were found to be the major causative factors responsible for this decline in revenue receipts. Although the Government has banned felling of trees in many parts of the state, it has also adversely affected not only the harvesting of forest produce and thereby revenue receipts from state forestry but also the working of FLCS in the state. The study provides certain policy suggestions that will not only help the state to increase its revenue receipts from state forestry but also in respect of achieving its goal of maintaining ecological balance in the state. |
| Keywords: | Management of Forest Resources in India |
| JEL: | P Q Z |
| Date: | 2005–12–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpot:0512001&r=env |
| By: | Fahmida Khatun |
| Abstract: | Prepared under CPD's Capacity Building in Trade-Environment Issues in Bangladesh: Addressing the WTO Work Programme, the paper makes an attempt to analyse environmental issues in the context of multilateral trading systems and the developments taking place in the WTO, particularly in the context of their relevance to Bangladesh. While Part A focuses on various multilateral agreements in the WTO on environmental issues, Part B deals with liberalisation of environmental goods and services. Part C critically analyses the effects of environmental measures on market access. The paper highlights a range of environmental issues and debates emerging in the WTO, keeping in view Bangladesh's interests and puts forward a number of recommendations as regards Bangladesh's policy stance with respect to some of the key issues in the upcoming negotiations. |
| Keywords: | WTO, Environment, Bangladesh |
| JEL: | F10 O13 |
| Date: | 2004–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:opaper:35&r=env |