nep-env 2005-07-18 papers

on Environmental Economics

Issue of 2005‒07‒18
two papers chosen by
Francisco S.Ramos
Federal University of Pernambuco

Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends? By Junsoo Lee; John A. List; Mark Strazicich
Vulcanism and Prehistory in the massif central of France : Future Prospects for Sustainable Development of Rural Highlands By Jean-Paul Raynal; Gérard Vernet; Guy Kieffer

Nonrenewable Resource Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?

By:	Junsoo Lee; John A. List; Mark Strazicich
Abstract:	In this paper we examine temporal properties of eleven natural resource real price series from 1870-1990 by employing a Lagrangian Multiplier unit root test that allows for two endogenously determined structural breaks with and without a quadratic trend. Contrary to previous research, we find evidence against the unit root hypothesis for all price series. Our findings support characterizing natural resource prices as stationary around deterministic trends with structural breaks. This result is important in both a positive and normative sense. For example, without an appropriate understanding of the dynamics of a time series, empirical verification of theories, forecasting, and proper inference are potentially fruitless. More generally, we show that both pre-testing for unit roots with breaks and allowing for breaks in the forecast model can improve forecast accuracy.
JEL:	Q31 C12 C53
Date:	2005–07
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11487&r=env

Vulcanism and Prehistory in the massif central of France : Future Prospects for Sustainable Development of Rural Highlands

By:	Jean-Paul Raynal (PACEA - De le Préhistoire à l'Actuel : Culture, Environnement et Anthroplogie - CNRS : UMR5199;MIN CULTURE - Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux I); Gérard Vernet (GMNA - Géodynamique des milieux naturels et anthropises - http://www.univ-bpclermont.fr/LABOS/geolab - CNRS : UMR6042 - Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand II;Université de Limoges); Guy Kieffer (GMNA - Géodynamique des milieux naturels et anthropises - http://www.univ-bpclermont.fr/LABOS/geolab - CNRS : UMR6042 - Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand II;Université de Limoges)
Abstract:	If recent huge projects in Auvergne, as Vulcania near Clermont-Ferrand for example, try to use vulcanism as a matter of sustainable local development, attracting either seasonal touristic flow or all-year academic activities, the remote highlands of Velay begin to discover that archaeology and vulcanism make an original combination to increase interest of populations and can be a key for sustainable rural development.
Keywords:	volcanisme;archéologie;développement local;développement durable;Massif central;Haute-Loire
Date:	2005–07–11
URL:	http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00004081_v1&r=env

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