By: |
Pietro Moncada-Paternò-Castello (JRC-IPTS);
Peter Voigt (JRC-IPTS) |
Abstract: |
The paper investigates how sector composition and the magnitude of R&D
investment in the EU may differ in 2020 in comparison to the past, if a
selection of top R&D-investing SMEs were assumed to be on a fast growth track
while the top R&D-investing large-scale companies continue to grow as before.
The background of this research objective is the emerging focus on SMEs – and
in particular the fast-growing among them – with regard to the "Europe 2020"
policy strategy. The study relies on the sample of top R&D-investing firms as
given by the latest available "EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard"
editions, building there from an unbalanced panel. Scenarios were developed by
distinguishing SMEs' assumed growth paths vs. that of large scale companies. A
linear prediction model has been used to calculate the scenario simulations.
Overall, the study indicates that if one expects the (R&D-intensive) small
firms to be a driving force for a substantial structural change in the EU
economy, from being driven by medium-tech sectors towards a high-tech based
economy, it requires either a significant longer-term horizon of the assumed
fast growth track than the simulated 10 years, or small firms' growth figures
which even exceed the assumed annual 30% (as in the most optimistic scenario).
Neither case appears to be particularly realistic. Hence, we need more top R&D
investors in Europe to further intensify their engagement in R&D (increasing
volume and R&D intensity) as well as numerous small firms that start and/or
significantly increase their existing R&D activities and thus seek to become
large firms and (global) leading R&D investors. Accordingly, a broad R&D and
innovation (policy) strategy is needed with policy interventions which also
target well all these options; i.e. stimulating firm growth and R&D and
innovation-intensity across firm-sized classes. |
Keywords: |
SME, company growth, industrial dynamics, structural change, R&D/ innovation policy, Barcelona target, Europe 2020 |
JEL: |
L11 L25 R38 |
Date: |
2012–01 |
URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:wpaper:201201&r=ent |