| By: | 
Pietro Moncada-Paternò-Castello (JRC-IPTS); 
Peter Voigt (JRC-IPTS) | 
| Abstract: | 
The paper investigates how sector composition and the magnitude of R&D 
investment in the EU may differ in 2020 in comparison to the past, if a 
selection of top R&D-investing SMEs were assumed to be on a fast growth track 
while the top R&D-investing large-scale companies continue to grow as before. 
The background of this research objective is the emerging focus on SMEs – and 
in particular the fast-growing among them – with regard to the "Europe 2020" 
policy strategy. The study relies on the sample of top R&D-investing firms as 
given by the latest available "EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard" 
editions, building there from an unbalanced panel. Scenarios were developed by 
distinguishing SMEs' assumed growth paths vs. that of large scale companies. A 
linear prediction model has been used to calculate the scenario simulations. 
Overall, the study indicates that if one expects the (R&D-intensive) small 
firms to be a driving force for a substantial structural change in the EU 
economy, from being driven by medium-tech sectors towards a high-tech based 
economy, it requires either a significant longer-term horizon of the assumed 
fast growth track than the simulated 10 years, or small firms' growth figures 
which even exceed the assumed annual 30% (as in the most optimistic scenario). 
Neither case appears to be particularly realistic. Hence, we need more top R&D 
investors in Europe to further intensify their engagement in R&D (increasing 
volume and R&D intensity) as well as numerous small firms that start and/or 
significantly increase their existing R&D activities and thus seek to become 
large firms and (global) leading R&D investors. Accordingly, a broad R&D and 
innovation (policy) strategy is needed with policy interventions which also 
target well all these options; i.e. stimulating firm growth and R&D and 
innovation-intensity across firm-sized classes. | 
| Keywords: | 
SME, company growth, industrial dynamics, structural change, R&D/ innovation policy, Barcelona target, Europe 2020 | 
| JEL: | 
L11 L25 R38 | 
| Date: | 
2012–01 | 
| URL: | 
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:wpaper:201201&r=ent |