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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Michael G Pollitt; Daniel Duma; Andrei Covatariu; Paul Nillesen |
| Keywords: | Distribution System Operators, energy transition, regulation |
| JEL: | L94 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2610 |
| By: | Theodoros Zachariadis; Elias Giannakis |
| Abstract: | Instability in global energy supply and fluctuating international oil and gas prices push European countries to reduce fuel import dependency through energy saving measures and faster deployment of renewable energy. Calculating the fuel import bill, as usually done to illustrate the impact of the continent’s energy dependency, offers only a partial picture of the challenge. This paper applies an economy-wide assessment for Cyprus, a country which greatly relies on imported fossil fuels but has made some progress towards decarbonisation. We combine energy, economic and trade statistics with technical calculations and find that renewables deployed in the last decade have already today contributed to very substantial net benefits of 469 million Euros at 2023 prices, leading to a benefit-cost ratio ranging between 11 and 19. Input-output modelling shows that economy-wide benefits have led to a cumulative additional value added of the order of 1.4 billion Euros’2023 during the decade 2015-2024, with a 0.5-1% GDP increase per year thanks to renewables investments and avoided fossil fuel imports. The approach presented here minimises the uncertainties and assumptions that are necessary to run more sophisticated economic models and can offer credible insights on the economic dividends of decarbonisation policies in any country, contributing also to improved energy security. |
| Keywords: | decarbonisation, energy policy, energy security, input-output analysis, renewable energy, trade balance |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:218 |
| By: | Theodoros Zachariadis; Constantinos Taliotis; Melina Moleskis; Pantelis Solomou |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the findings of our model-based study on the transition of Cyprus to a net-zero economy. A climate-neutral Cyprus will be characterised by almost complete replacement of fossil fuels by electricity and renewable sources, full utilisation of waste and use of renewable hydrogen in transport and heavy industry. This will require serious public and private investments, which however can be beneficial for the economy and society. Still, important challenges lie ahead that call for swift policy action. Apart from long-term planning that must start today, effective implementation of green policies is key. In this context, the paper also provides a background on behavioural barriers that should be overcome, as the lack in understanding human behaviour is at the heart of the sustainability challenge. Drawing from our recent work for Cypriot authorities, we highlight directions in which policy-making in Cyprus can be enhanced, with special attention to energy poverty. |
| Keywords: | behavioural insights; carbon neutrality; climate policy; energy poverty; net-zero economy |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:208 |
| By: | Nobuhiro Hosoe (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the impact of rising fossil fuel prices resulting from the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis (a war among the United States, Israel, and Iran) on the Japanese economy. It quantifies the effectiveness of government energy subsidy policies by considering the consistency between economic and environmental policies. Using a computable general equilibrium model to simulate a scenario where fossil fuel prices double, the consumer price index (CPI) increases by 3.5%, and households suffer a welfare loss of 11 trillion yen, while greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decrease by 5.8% (66 million t-CO2). Conversely, if providing a 20% energy subsidy reduces the CPI increase to 1.5%, the household welfare would appear to improve by 116 billion yen. However, the subsidies would worsen environmental outcomes by stimulating fossil fuel consumption, which would otherwise be reduced by price hikes, thereby increasing GHG emissions. This would lead to a deterioration in welfare, accounting for the environmental costs of GHG emissions. Subsidies for electricity and gas, whose markets are less distorted by indirect taxes than fossil fuel markets, are found to be counterproductive, worsening welfare even without considering environmental value. |
| Keywords: | Oil crisis; fuel subsidy; greenhouse gas; computable general equilibrium model |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:26-3 |
| By: | Maczulskij, Terhi |
| Abstract: | Abstract TThe EU ETS is the main climate policy instrument in the European Union. By putting a price on carbon emissions, it aims to reduce GHG emissions while encouraging firms to adopt cleaner technologies. This policy brief summarizes the results from the recent paper examining the effects of the EU ETS on productivity, innovation activity, and environmental performance among Finnish energy-intensive firms. The analysis is based on various firm-level datasets covering the period 2000–2020. The data include financial statements, emissions, energy use, innovation activity, and R&D expenditure. Causal effects are identified by exploiting the staggered difference-in-difference method. The results show that the EU ETS did not reduce firms’ productivity or R&D expenditure. At the same time, regulated firms became significantly more likely to introduce both process and product innovations. In addition, energy intensity declined by approximately ten percent following regulation. These findings suggest that carbon pricing can stimulate technological adaptation and innovation without generating measurable costs on firm competitiveness. The innovation effects appear to arise primarily through technology adoption and process improvements rather than increased R&D inputs. Overall, the results support the use of climate policies as an effective tool for promoting the green transition while maintaining economic performance. |
| Keywords: | EU ETS, Innovation, Productivity |
| JEL: | D24 O31 O33 Q52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:181 |
| By: | Neuhoff, Karsten; Sato, Misato; Ballesteros, Fernanda; Böhringer, Christoph; Borghesi, Simone; Cosbey, Aaron; Deletombe, Thibault; Felsmann, Balázs; Ismer, Roland; Johnston, Angus; Linares, Pedro; Matikainen, Sini; Pauliuk, Stefan; Pirlot, Alice; Quirion, Philippe; Rosendahl, Knut Einar; Sniegocki, Aleksander; van Asselt, Harro; Zetterberg, Lars |
| Abstract: | The European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has the dual objective of preventing carbon leakage and encouraging adoption of low-carbon technologies abroad. Yet, pursuing both objectives with the same mechanism results in incomplete carbon leakage protection unless global carbon prices converge. As the current geopolitical situation makes rapid convergence seem unlikely, an extension of free allowance allocation is being discussed for affected sectors. This would, however, mute most carbon pricing incentives and reduce carbon pricing revenues. This paper argues that until progress on global carbon pricing is reached, the CBAM should be reformed to use standardized values rather than production-specific emission intensities for materials with complex value chains. With the reform, emission trading with free allowances at benchmark level continues to provide the carbon price and incentives for conventional producers. To close the carbon pricing gap, a standardized liability per ton of material is included, independent of production process or location. It can be subject to established border adjustments along the full value chain, including export relief. Such a reform would not create direct incentives for climate-friendly material production and carbon pricing in third countries but would ensure carbon pricing incentives along the domestic value chain and carbon pricing revenue to fund climate action. This would enhance investment stability, support industrial transformation, and address carbon leakage risks in a fragmented global policy landscape. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138672 |
| By: | Warwick J. McKibbin (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Marcus Noland (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Geoffrey Shuetrim (McKibbin Software Group Pty Ltd.) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores two scenarios for the potential economic effects of a Middle East war that causes a spike in energy prices. In the first, oil prices surge for one year to around $120 per barrel, while prices also rise sharply for liquefied natural gas, refined petroleum, and fertilizer; in the second, energy prices remain elevated for three years. We find in both scenarios, global growth slows relative to our baseline projection, but the effects are felt very unevenly. Countries dependent on Middle Eastern oil, petroleum, natural gas, and fertilizers experience the largest declines in GDP and increases in inflation. The effects on different sectors vary according to their energy sources, both directly through different energy dependence and indirectly through production networks. Also, trade relationships matter because as the global economy slows, countries such as China experience a decline in export demand, worsening GDP losses, even though China has large domestic supplies of oil, gas, and fertilizer. |
| Keywords: | Iran, Middle East, oil prices, war. |
| JEL: | C6 F51 Q34 Q43 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp26-10 |
| By: | Panle Jia Barwick; Jack Collison; Pinelopi K. Goldberg; Shanjun Li; Yucheng Wang |
| Abstract: | We study the optimal design of trade and industrial policy when governments pursue environmental objectives alongside traditional national welfare. Motivated by the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and growing concerns about competitiveness, resilience, and the environment, we develop a framework in which policymakers choose tariffs and domestic production subsidies to maximize national welfare, defined as the sum of consumer surplus, domestic profits, environmental benefits, and tariff revenue net of subsidies. We combine a theoretical model of differentiated-product oligopoly with a structural demand model estimated using vehicle-level data from 13 countries during 2004-2023 that together account for the vast majority of global EV sales. Our central finding is that the optimal policy combines a moderate tariff on imported EVs with a subsidy to domestic EV production financed through tariff revenue. This policy substantially outperforms both outright protectionism and laissez-faire. Relative to current policies, it preserves consumer access to affordable EVs, accelerates fleet electrification, supports domestic producers, and remains budget-neutral. For the United States, the optimal policy more than doubles EV market share, generates over $45 billion in annual welfare gains, and avoids approximately 95 million tons of lifetime CO2 emissions. A key mechanism underlying these results is the pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices, which depends critically on demand curvature, product substitution, and market structure. More broadly, our results suggest that effective industrial policy requires careful attention to market structure and country-specific conditions, balancing consumer, producer, fiscal, and environmental objectives rather than adhering to ideological prescriptions. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 H23 L52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35334 |
| By: | Fierro, Luca E.; Reissl, Severin; Lamperti, Francesco; Campiglio, Emanuele; Drouet, Laurent; Emmerling, Johannes; Kremer, Elise; Tavoni, Massimo |
| Abstract: | Although the case for a swift climate transition is clear, its macro-financial viability remains uncertain. To shed light on the macroeconomic and financial response to deep mitigation trajectories controlled by carbon pricing, we soft-link a process-based integrated assessment model (the World Induced Technical Change Hybrid, WITCH) to a macro-financial agent-based model (the Dystopian Schumpeter Meeting Keynes, DSK). The hybrid framework allows us to translate energy systems transformations into macro-financial outcomes at business cycle frequency. We find that rapid transitions induced by fast-growing carbon prices significantly impact unemployment, inflation, and income distribution. Stabilization policies reduce these economic fluctuations, though not completely so in Paris-compatible scenarios. Our paper emphasizes the need for coordinated climate and macroeconomic policy during decarbonization. Additionally, it showcases how model integration can lead to a better understanding of the economic implications of low-carbon futures. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138724 |
| By: | Tatsuya Abe (Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo, Japan.); Arlan Brucal (The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC, USA.); Yuta Toyama (School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishi-Waseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | How does directed technological change toward energy efficiency shape the effects and design of carbon pricing? We estimate a structural production function that separates energy-augmenting productivity from Hicks-neutral productivity using Indonesian manufacturing microdata. Exploiting energy-price variation from fossil-fuel subsidy reforms, we find that higher energy prices induce energy-augmenting productivity growth. Counterfactual simulations show that heterogeneity in energy-augmenting productivity, rather than Hicks-neutral productivity, drives the welfare advantage of carbon pricing over uniform regulation. When carbon pricing induces energy-augmenting innovation, aggregate emissions fall further, although a rebound effect partially offsets this additional abatement. Effective carbon-pricing design should account for productivity heterogeneity, induced innovation, and rebound effects. |
| Keywords: | Energy-augmenting productivity, production function, rebound effect, induced innovation, structural estimation, carbon pricing, production microdata |
| JEL: | D24 O33 Q41 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:was:dpaper:2603 |
| By: | Kurzhanskiy, Alex PhD |
| Abstract: | As California transitions to electric vehicles (EVs), ensuring equitable access to public charging remains a challenge. While the state and utilities have invested heavily in new charging infrastructure, simply counting stations does not show whether the network is reliable, affordable, and accessible, particularly for vulnerable populations and renters without home charging options. As of March 2025, California had installed about 178, 549 public and shared- private chargers, including roughly 17, 000 DC fast chargers. The California Energy Commission projects a need for about 1.01 million chargers by 2030 to support 7.5 million zero-emission vehicles. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2026–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt2975d8m6 |
| By: | Gregory Casey; Kyle C. Meng; Ivan Rudik |
| Abstract: | Carbon import tariffs, traditionally considered a complement to domestic climate policy, are increasingly proposed as standalone policies. We build a quantitative trade model to compare U.S. carbon tariffs with and without a domestic carbon tax, each applied to a set of carbon-intensive, trade-exposed sectors. We find three main results. First, a U.S. carbon tariff increases U.S. emissions, lowers foreign emissions, and on net achieves half the global emissions reductions of the combined policy, which lowers both U.S. and foreign emissions. Second, both approaches increase U.S. GDP and welfare, but the combined policy has a larger effect due to terms of trade improvements. Third, global emissions reductions from multilateral tariff-only agreements are modest and do not increase monotonically with greater membership, whereas under combined policies they scale considerably with membership. |
| JEL: | F18 H23 Q5 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35307 |
| By: | Charis Psaltis; Neophytos Loizides; Andreas Michael; Nikandros Ioannidis; Edward Morgan Jones; Laura Sudulich |
| Abstract: | The paper presents key findings from a public opinion survey and conjoint experiment with a representative sample of 800 Greek Cypriots, examining public attitudes toward natural resources co-management in the Eastern Mediterranean and the green transition in the context of the Cyprus Problem. It examines views on climate change, joint energy projects, political arrangements, and possible confidence building measures (CBMs) that could build trust between the two communities. The major finding of this research is that it identified potential peace packages accepted by a majority of the Greek Cypriot voters that include Cyprus-Turkey co-operation as part of a comprehensive settlement and wider regional co-operation on energy in the Eastern Mediterranean. |
| Keywords: | Cyprus, Cyprus Issue, Energy Cooperation, Eastern Mediterranean, Conjoint Experiment, Bizonal Bicommunal Federation |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:213 |
| By: | Wang, Maria; Kuusi, Tero |
| Abstract: | Abstract This report examines the planned extension of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to indirect emissions and its coordination with the existing indirect cost compensation under the EU Emissions Trading System. The study provides an overview of Finland’s CBAM sectors, estimates tariff elasticities using a gravity model for the years 2010–2023, and simulates three scenarios in which the inclusion of indirect emissions in the CBAM extension is combined with different changes to indirect cost compensation. The results indicate that import responses to the CBAM extension are most pronounced in the aluminium sector, while the effects on iron and steel are more moderate. The scenario analysis suggests that extending CBAM to indirect emissions would reduce imports by a few percentage points, whereas the simultaneous phase-out of indirect cost compensation would have only a limited additional impact. Consequently, the extension would help reduce the risk of carbon leakage, although it would also increase the cost of imports in Finland. |
| Keywords: | Carbon leakage, Carbon border adjustment mechanism, Gravity model, Tariff elasticity |
| JEL: | F18 Q56 Q58 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–06–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:178 |
| By: | Seoni Han (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | The global green transition has intensified competition for critical minerals essential to renewable energy and electric vehicles, which require significantly more minerals than traditional technologies. The demand for critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements has surged, leading to supply chain vulnerabilities due to the concentration of production and processing in a few countries.<p> Africa, with its abundant mineral reserves, is emerging as a key player in global supply chains of critical minerals, possessing about 20% of the world’s reserves needed for green transition. Many African governments are reforming mining laws to enhance state control while offering incentives to attract investment. In response, major global players such as the US., the EU, China, Japan, and Canada are increasing cooperation with Africa, each adopting distinctive strategies to secure supply chains.<p> In its partnership with Africa, Korea should pursue a comprehensive strategy across the critical mineral value chains, ensuring ESG compliance, and promoting industrial cooperation aimed at upgrading local processing capabilities. Three key strategies are recommended: (1) tailoring cooperation to Africa’s evolving policy context and infrastructure needs; (2) strengthening resource diplomacy and enhancing multilateral and bilateral cooperation through platforms such as the Korea-Africa Critical Minerals Dialogue; and (3) expanding financial and non-financial support to promote greater private sector engagement. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals; Africa |
| Date: | 2025–07–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:022493 |
| By: | Luiu, Carlo; Barake, Bosibori; Wandera, Amos; Ohler, Sabrina; Pope, Francis D.; Radcliffe, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles are starting to enter the market in Kenya in the context of micro-mobility and could be an effective solution for decarbonising the growing motorcycle taxi sector and reducing its wider transport and environmental impacts. As the policy development in Kenya is in its early stages, this paper explores policy gaps supporting the transition to electric mobility in the motorcycle taxi sector. From stakeholders’ focus groups and workshops, socio-economic and environmental benefits and barriers have been identified. Main benefits comprise operational cost savings, operators’ well-being and tackling air pollution, while barriers include upfront costs of both operators and start-ups, awareness among operators, charging infrastructure, battery standards and e-waste processes. The paper provides a set of policy recommendations, stressing the need for inclusive processes that consider motorcycle taxi operators as major stakeholders of policy development and mechanisms to understand how this transition accommodates the sector’s needs over time. |
| Date: | 2026–05–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:e9jhc_v1 |
| By: | yeboah, samuel |
| Abstract: | This study reviews the relationship between carbon emissions and cost efficiency in manufacturing firms within the broader context of sustainable industrial transformation and increasing environmental pressures. The review synthesises contemporary theoretical and empirical literature published between 2020 and 2026, with particular emphasis on Scopus-indexed and Q1-ranked journal articles. The study examines the interaction between carbon emissions, operational efficiency, digital transformation, energy efficiency, and green innovation within manufacturing systems. The findings suggest that improvements in energy efficiency, technological innovation, and digital transformation can significantly reduce carbon emissions while simultaneously enhancing cost efficiency, productivity, and overall firm performance. Nevertheless, the empirical evidence remains mixed and highly context-dependent. Whereas several studies report substantial efficiency gains associated with low-carbon manufacturing practices and digital integration, others identify weak, conditional, or heterogeneous effects influenced by institutional quality, industrial structure, technological readiness, regulatory environments, and firm-specific capabilities. The review further reveals a strong geographical concentration within the literature, particularly the dominance of China-based manufacturing studies, with comparatively limited empirical evidence from African economies and other emerging industrial contexts. Moreover, most existing studies employ indirect indicators such as total factor productivity, ESG performance, or innovation output rather than direct measures of cost efficiency derived from frontier-based techniques such as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). The originality of this study lies in its integrated synthesis of carbon emissions and cost efficiency within a unified manufacturing framework, an area that remains fragmented in the existing literature. The study advances an innovative perspective by conceptualising environmental sustainability, digital transformation, and operational cost efficiency as interconnected dimensions of industrial competitiveness rather than isolated constructs. Its contribution to knowledge derives from identifying major theoretical inconsistencies, methodological limitations, and contextual gaps that constrain current understanding, particularly the limited evidence from emerging economies and the inadequate application of direct cost efficiency measurement approaches in manufacturing research. |
| Keywords: | Manufacturing Firms; Digital Transformation; Energy Efficiency; Sustainable Manufacturing; Green Innovation; Industrial Productivity |
| JEL: | C67 D12 L60 O33 Q40 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129216 |
| By: | Dana Golden; Aruna Balasubramanian; Niranjan Balasubramanian |
| Abstract: | Data centers now account for 4.4% of United States electricity demand, yet the grid-level effectiveness of the renewable energy certificates (RECs) and power purchase agreements (PPAs) hyperscalers use to claim carbon neutrality remains unclear. We develop a game-theoretic model in which a data center operator chooses among RECs, PPAs, and behind-the-meter colocation while generators make entry decisions under endogenous financing costs. The model identifies a timing wedge -- the mismatch between consumption and credited renewable generation -- as a central mechanism through which AI demand degrades reliability, raises prices, and increases emissions even when RECs cover 100% of annual consumption. Colocation with storage addresses this wedge directly and induces the greatest renewable entry by eliminating generator revenue risk. We test these predictions by exploiting the staggered release of large language models as a natural experiment, using difference-in-differences on a novel dataset linking AI activity to local grid outcomes. AI demand significantly increases fossil generation, wholesale prices (up to 25% in treated PJM zones), and outage frequency (0.5--1 additional outages per year) near data centers, with impacts scaling in model size. Data centers with on-site generation exhibit a sign reversal in power-quality effects, consistent with the model's prediction that behind-the-meter capacity absorbs demand spikes. Counterfactual analyses show that edge inference, spatial reallocation, and colocated storage each substantially mitigate grid impacts, while REC-only strategies do not. Together, our results demonstrate that the externalities of AI to the grid are tightly coupled to procurement design and the spatial organization of data center infrastructure. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.00811 |
| By: | Timothé Beaufils; Ulrich Eydam; Maik Heinemann; Matthias Kalkuhl; Nikolaj Moretti; Andreas Peichl; Philipp M. Richter; Joschka Wanner |
| Abstract: | Key MessagesEuropean economies rely heavily on fossil fuel imports and are exposed to global price shocksRelief measures face a trilemma: targeting, incentives, and feasibility rarely alignRelief measures can function as taxpayerfinanced implicit insurance against energy crisesBased on recent crisis responses, relief implies EU-wide permanent subsidies of around EUR18/tCO₂ (gas) and EUR 10/tCO₂ (oil)Such implicit subsidies weaken incentives to reduce fossil dependence and increase vulnerability to future crises |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_84 |
| By: | Maczulskij, Terhi |
| Abstract: | Abstract This study examines the impact of the EU Emission Trading System on firms’ productivity and innovation behavior in the Finnish energy-intensive sector. Using unique administrative data on emissions and firm characteristics from 2000 onwards, the effect of the ETS is analyzed using staggered difference-in-difference design. The results show that while firms do not increase productivity or innovation inputs, those regulated are significantly more likely to introduce both process and product innovations. Additional findings suggest that the ETS effectively reduced energy intensity. Together the findings suggest that carbon pricing may stimulate technological adaptation and environmental improvements without generating measurable losses in productivity. |
| Keywords: | EU ETS, Innovation, Productivity |
| JEL: | D24 O31 O33 Q52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:wpaper:139 |
| By: | Gopal K. Sarangi (TERI School of Advanced Studies, New Delhi, India); Han Phoumin (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Rabindra Nepal (University of Wollongong, Australia) |
| Abstract: | India’s energy transition and net zero ambitions are expected to generate substantial demand for critical minerals, particularly to support its target of 500 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. However, India continues to face major challenges in domestic sourcing, processing, and refining, while external procurement is increasingly shaped by geopolitical dynamics. This paper analyses the policies and regulations governing critical minerals in India and assesses key supply chain-related risks within the policy landscape. The findings show that India’s approach combines domestic production measures with international partnerships, while resource concentration and geopolitical risks remain key challenges to achieving resilient and secure critical mineral supply chains. |
| Keywords: | - |
| Date: | 2026–06–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2026-01 |
| By: | Lucas W. Davis |
| Abstract: | It may seem like a distant memory now, but as of the mid-2000s, U.S. natural gas production had been flat for a decade, and the U.S. was importing liquefied natural gas (LNG), with plans to import much more. Then shale gas happened. Advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling caused U.S. natural gas production to increase significantly, and the U.S. went from being a net importer of natural gas to being the world's largest exporter. This paper calculates how much shale gas has saved U.S. natural gas consumers. Using price differences between the United States, Europe and Japan, we calculate that U.S. natural gas consumers have saved $3.1-$4.3 trillion between 2007 and 2025, equivalent to $164-$227 billion annually. Access to low-price U.S. natural gas has been particularly valuable during major supply shocks such as the war in Ukraine, and the benefits of shale gas have been experienced broadly across sectors and states. |
| JEL: | Q41 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35245 |
| By: | Olayinka Oyekola (Department of Economics, University of Exeter); Mingyuan Chen (Department of Economics, University of Exeter); Diego Morris (Department of Management, University of Birmingham) |
| Abstract: | Using a panel of nine manufacturing industries in 43 economies over the period 1990-2015, we examine how international commodity price movements affect carbon emissions across industries. We find that commodity price movements are associated with larger reductions in emissions intensity in physical-capital-intensive industries, whereas the emissions response does not vary systematically with human capital intensity. The results are economically meaningful and robust. The evidence points to cross-industry reallocation as the dominant adjustment channel, with commodity price movements associated with lower value-added growth in physical-capital-intensive industries, whereas the evidence for within-industry emissions-efficiency improvements is weaker. We further show that industries experiencing larger declines in domestic emissions intensity also exhibit larger increases in emissions embodied in imports, suggesting some relocation of emissions-intensive production across borders. Overall, commodity price movements appear to support domestic decarbonization while raising concerns about carbon outsourcing. |
| Keywords: | commodity prices, carbon emissions, physical capital intensity, industrial reallocation, decarbonization, carbon outsourcing |
| JEL: | F18 L60 O13 Q43 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exe:wpaper:2606 |
| By: | Jorge S\'anchez Canales; Lion Hirth |
| Abstract: | Investment in renewable electricity generation is highly capital intensive and therefore strongly dependent on financing conditions. In Europe, much of this investment has occurred under public support schemes that resemble long-term public contracts such as feed-in tariffs (FiTs) and contracts-for-differences (CfDs). These contracts not only subsidize renewable generation but also stabilize project cash flows by reducing exposure to electricity price volatility, thereby improving debt capacity and lowering financing costs. At the same time, they may distort operational and investment incentives by weakening exposure to wholesale market price signals. This paper studies how alternative public contract designs reduce revenue risk and how this translates into financing outcomes. Using a novel dataset of hourly turbine-level generation covering 63 German onshore wind parks over the period 2013-2024, we simulate project cash flows under two-sided CfDs, one-sided CfDs, and financial CfDs. We then evaluate their implications for cash-flow volatility, debt capacity, and the levelized cost of electricity using a project finance model based on a conservative debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR) constraint. We find that financial CfDs provide hedging performance comparable to conventional two-sided CfDs. The results suggest that the commonly assumed trade-off between revenue stabilization and efficient market integration is not inherent but depends on contract design. More broadly, public contracts can substitute missing long-term hedging markets. These results have direct policy implications for the design of renewable energy support schemes. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.23400 |
| By: | Subir Majumder |
| Abstract: | Large, fast-controllable loads such as Bitcoin mining facilities are increasingly viewed as potential sources of flexibility in modern power systems, yet the conditions under which this flexibility is realized remain incompletely understood. Using the Texas power market as an empirical setting, we examine how Bitcoin-mining load responds to two distinct electricity-sector cost channels: contemporaneous wholesale electricity prices and incentives created by coincident-peak-based transmission charges. We find that mining load responds to both cost channels in a manner consistent with miners operating around a breakeven point. At the aggregate level, we observe that mining load decreases as electricity-sector costs rise, but the strength of this response depends on hashprice, a measure of expected mining revenue from the crypto-financial sector. When hashprice is higher, aggregate load responsiveness is weaker. This mechanism is especially evident in the wholesale-price response. Mining load remains largely online at low prices and begins to decline only when electricity costs become large relative to expected mining revenue, with higher hashprice shifting the implied curtailment threshold toward higher wholesale prices. These findings indicate that Bitcoin-mining demand response to electricity-sector costs is economically state-dependent and shaped by revenue conditions in the crypto-financial sector. Treating such loads as stable demand-response resources may therefore overstate available grid flexibility, with implications for power-system planning, market design, and reliability assessment. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.00587 |
| By: | Lohawala, Nafisa (Resources for the Future); Teng, Xuan |
| Abstract: | Flight-booking websites, such as Google Flights and Skyscanner, increasingly display estimated CO2 emissions for flight itineraries, but little is known about whether this information affects booking decisions. We study how emissions disclosure affects consumers’ flight choices using US domestic flight data from 2018 to 2022 and a discrete-choice model and find that it increases consumers’ sensitivity to flight emissions. In our preferred specification, the absolute value of the emissions elasticity of demand increases from 0.23 in the predisclosure period to 0.28 in the period following the first disclosure. Expressed in willingness-to-pay (WTP) terms, the implied WTP for emissions reductions is $33 per ton higher in the postdisclosure period. Counterfactual simulations suggest that mandating emissions disclosure across all flight-booking platforms would further strengthen consumers’ responsiveness to emissions information.Keywords: Willingness to pay, Carbon emissions disclosure, Discrete-choice model, AviationJEL codes: D12, D83, L93, Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-26-08 |
| By: | Andersson, Julius J.; Atkinson, Giles |
| Abstract: | We present a simple model showing how income inequality and the income elasticity of demand jointly shape the tax progressivity of indirect taxes, with rising inequality increasing the regressivity of taxes on necessities. We test the model’s predictions by analyzing the Swedish carbon tax on transport fuel. We find that the tax becomes increasingly regressive over time, closely tracking rising income inequality. We also show that the relative incidence shifts from regressive to progressive when using annual expenditure rather than annual income as the welfare measure, as expenditure is more evenly distributed. A cross-country analysis of gasoline taxes in high-income nations further supports our findings, establishing a strong correlation between higher inequality and greater regressivity. Our model helps policymakers identify when complementary redistributive measures such as lump-sum transfers may become necessary. |
| Keywords: | tax progressivity; income inequality; gasoline taxation; carbon taxation |
| JEL: | H23 H24 D31 D63 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138449 |
| By: | Andreas Psarras; Theodore Panagiotidis; Andreas Andronikidis |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between petrol prices and vehicle collisions using Greek data from 2012 to 2021. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models are employed for daily motor vehicle collisions. Our analysis reveals that petrol prices have a significant impact on vehicle collisions. Fatal vehicle collisions decrease during relatively high petrol prices, whereas light-injury vehicle collisions increase. No significant relationship was found between severe injury vehicle collisions and fuel prices. We also analyse daily data on motorcycle vehicle collisions and find a positive relationship between these accidents and fuel prices. When considering models with lagged fuel prices, our results indicate that in all cases, vehicle collisions decrease during periods of increasing fuel prices. These findings suggest that policies targeting motorcycling safety are particularly necessary during times of rising fuel prices. |
| Keywords: | Petrol prices; Traffic safety; Road accidents; Motorcycle accidents |
| JEL: | R41 I19 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:211 |
| By: | Bento Maria |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the spatial concentration of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) across Portuguese municipalities and examines how fiscal incentives are associated with that concentration. Using municipality-level data on BEV registrations, population, density, charging infrastructure, and local parking incentives, this paper combines loglinear modelling, rank-size analysis, and network analysis. Municipalities are represented as nodes in a complete network constructed from geographical distances. A minimum spanning tree is used to identify the connectivity threshold required to keep all municipalities connected. Such a threshold is used to move from a complete network to a sparse one, to which centrality measures are computed. The analysis provides descriptive evidence on whether BEV adoption is concentrated in larger, denser, better connected, and better equipped municipalities. The results contribute to the understanding of spatial inequalities in electric mobility adoption in Portugal and highlight the importance of considering network analysis when evaluating fiscal incentives. |
| Keywords: | Battery electric vehicles, fiscal incentives, network analysis, spatial concentration, road infrastructure, Portugal. |
| JEL: | R12 R48 H23 Q58 C21 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp04202026 |
| By: | Kachalia, Muhammad Anas; Audi, Marc; Ali, Amjad |
| Abstract: | The worldwide financial markets experience abrupt disruptions because geopolitical conflicts create disturbances in commodity supply, investor expectations, and macroeconomic stability. This study analyses the financial market impact of the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran by examining movements in oil prices, gold prices, and US 2-year Treasury bond yields. The dataset covers the period from February to April 2026 and is divided into a pre-war period (before 28th February 2026) and a war period (after 28th February 2026) to identify structural market changes following the outbreak of the conflict. The results show that oil prices experienced the strongest reaction, increasing from USD 71.23 per barrel on 2nd March 2026 (being the first working day after the war) to USD 111.54 per barrel by 2nd April 2026, representing an increase of approximately 57 %. This sharp rise reflects investor concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and the strategic importance of global shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. In contrast, gold prices declined during the same period, falling from USD 5, 294.40 per ounce on 2nd March 2026 to USD 4, 651.50 per ounce by 2nd April 2026, indicating a partial shift of investor capital from safe-haven assets toward commodities offering higher short-term returns, including crude oil. The decline may also have been influenced by increased gold sales from central banks, including the Turkish central bank. The analysis of US 2-year Treasury yields shows an increase from 3.49 % to 3.80 % during the war period, indicating reduced demand for government bonds because investors became increasingly concerned about inflationary pressures and expanding wartime fiscal expenditures. The findings indicate that oil prices exhibited the strongest market performance during the conflict period because of heightened geopolitical risk and anticipated supply disruptions. The findings prove that geopolitical conflicts create major effects on financial markets because investors behave and drive capital investments away from the conflict-related assets, which include energy commodities. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Risk, Energy Markets, Safe-Haven, Treasury Bond Yields, Commodity Price, Investor Sentiment |
| JEL: | G01 G12 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129143 |
| By: | Jenny Bjordal; Evelien van Dijk; Henri Cornec; Anthony A. Smith Jr.; Trude Storelvmo |
| Abstract: | Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) has been proposed as a potential tool to limit increases in global or regional temperatures caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. While previous research has extensively examined the climate system’s response to various SRM strategies, as well as their aggregate economic consequences, the regional distribution of economic impacts has received less attention. In this study, we use NorESM2–DIAM—an Earth System Model coupled to a high-resolution integrated assessment model—to assess the economic impacts, measured in GDP per capita, in an idealised SRM scenario where incoming solar radiation is reduced by 1%. Our results suggest that, relative to a baseline without SRM, most countries experience economic gains under SRM, with only a few countries facing negative impacts. Low-income countries tend to see the largest benefits, reducing global economic inequality relative to the baseline. However, reduced damages and lower inequality are accompanied by higher emissions under SRM, potentially leading to additional adverse effects not captured here. These findings highlight potential trade-offs between economic benefits, reduced inequality, and increased emissions relevant for SRM governance. |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35304 |
| By: | Cullen S. Hendrix (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | The United States depends heavily on imported critical minerals, including rare earth elements, needed for semiconductors, renewable energy, AI expansion, and defense systems. Because supply disruptions could seriously harm the economy and national security, the US government has launched Project Vault, a $12 billion public-private program to stockpile emergency supplies of critical minerals. Funded by a $10 billion EXIM Bank loan and $2 billion in private capital, the project is aimed at reducing reliance on foreign suppliers, particularly China, and protecting American--and eventually allied-country--manufacturers from shortages. Project Vault's design, however, raises important questions about its durability and day-to-day operations. Key Takeaways - Unlike the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Project Vault is designed as insurance against systemwide supply shocks, relying on private firms that pay subscription fees for access to reserves during disruptions, which makes it a hybrid of a futures market and a strategic reserve. - Voluntary participation would exclude both large self-insuring firms and small enterprises unaware of their exposure, hollowing out the risk pool in ways that could cause the program to fail when it is needed most. - Storing 60 highly differentiated minerals and processed derivatives is far more complex than stockpiling oil because supplies can degrade over time and often need to be processed to be usable during a crisis. - To be effective, Project Vault should require mandatory participation with fees scaled to firm size, fund against worst-case collective supply shocks, and prioritize processed materials over raw ore. - In the near term, building reserves of processed materials would likely depend on Chinese suppliers, making long-term investment in US and allied processing capacity critical. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb26-8 |
| By: | Pierre-Alexandre Mahieu (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Klaus Glenk (SRUC - Scotland's Rural College); Jürgen Meyerhoff (TUB - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Nearly all discrete choice experiments in environmental valuation have a cost attribute to estimate willingness to pay for the goods and services in question. The composition of the cost vector, however, has received little attention in the literature so far. This paper focuses on whether or not the cost vector should include "prominent amounts" (e.g., €1, €2, €5, €10, €20, €50). On the one hand, these amounts are familiar to participants as they are used in everyday life (e.g., coins or banknotes). On the other hand, respondents may not consider the amounts to reflect the cost of environmental programs, affecting credibility. In a review of published discrete choice experiment articles on wind energy, we find little information on how the levels of the cost attribute vectors were chosen and why prominent amounts are (not) included, reflecting the lack of guidance in the literature. In a split-sample survey on renewable energy, we find that the composition of the cost vector does not affect choice frequencies or the perceived difficulty of the task. However, we observe that the cost vector impacts credibility, suggesting that it may impact the validity of the welfare estimates. |
| Keywords: | Prominent numbers, Discrete choice experiment, Cost vector, Payment consequentiality, Renewable energy |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05626914 |
| By: | Garth Heutel |
| Abstract: | Through theory and numerical simulations, I explore how a pollution tax can be designed to accommodate ethical objections. I consider four types of objections that have been raised by ethicists – based on equity concerns, incommensurability, civic responsibility, and commodification. In each case, I theoretically derive a tax designed to respond to the objection, and quantitatively, using a general equilibrium model calibrated to the U.S. economy and carbon dioxide pollution, I show how these accommodations affect the magnitude of the tax and the resulting emissions level. Some accommodations likely have small effects on the carbon tax rate, while others can cause the tax rate to increase fivefold. |
| JEL: | A13 D63 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35278 |
| By: | Dora Xia; Omar Zulaica |
| Abstract: | We propose a framework for constructing fixed-income portfolios of sovereign bonds that integrates financial and environmental considerations. Central to our approach is the introduction of carbon returns, a concept analogous to financial returns, modeled as random variables to capture the inherent uncertainty of future carbon emissions. Based on the financial and carbon return profiles of individual countries' sovereign bonds, we employ an algorithm inspired by Hierarchical Risk Parity (HRP) to construct portfolios that balance each country's contribution to the portfolio's tail risk, as measured by expected shortfall, of financial and carbon returns. Focusing on developed market sovereign bonds, our results demonstrate that it is possible to design portfolios that effectively align decarbonization objectives with financial performance, both in-sample and out-of-sample, while accommodating diverse investor preferences. |
| Keywords: | carbon footprints, sovereign debt, portfolio optimization, risk parity |
| JEL: | G11 G28 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1362 |
| By: | Jakub Sokołowski; Stefan Bouzarovski |
| Abstract: | Collective decisions to retrofit multi-family residential buildings require co-owners to agree on how the total cost is divided among dwellings, yet the distributional properties of alternative allocation rules have been insufficiently investigated at scale. Using harmonised Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) microdata covering over 4 million apartments in almost 450, 000 buildings across Poland, England and Wales, and the Netherlands, we simulate five allocation rules: area-proportional, progressive-area, emissions-proportional, inefficiency-proportional, and Shapley-value allocation. For each building, we evaluate the resulting cost-share distributions using within-building inequality indices, size-progressivity measures, and cooperative-game-theoretic stability criteria. We find that performance-based rules produce within-building Gini coefficients 2 to 11 times higher than area-proportional allocation, with systematic variation across national building stocks. These rules are also less proportional in terms of dwelling size, assigning larger cost shares to smaller dwellings than their floor-area shares warrant. For retrofit governance in multi-owner buildings, allocation design should therefore be treated as a central component of policy implementation rather than a technical-administrative choice. |
| Keywords: | multi-family housing; energy-efficiency retrofits; cost allocation; Shapley value; cooperative game theory; Energy Performance Certificates |
| JEL: | D63 Q48 R31 C71 H23 Q52 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp042026 |
| By: | Tilman Schaefer |
| Abstract: | Heating-expenditure profiles over a residential spell vary systematically with aggregate gas price environments. Using 30 years of German SOEP panel data with 16, 055 residential spells among renter households, this paper estimates a negative cross-derivative of log heating and hot-water expenditures per square meter with respect to residence duration and the log gas price index (δ = -0.0045, bootstrap p = 0.003) in a residential spell and year fixed-effects design. The implied cumulative difference amounts to roughly 1.8 percent over ten years. Flexible specifications reveal offsetting effects across duration horizons, with positive moderation in the early years giving way to negative moderation at longer horizons. The continuous interaction estimate is stable across alternative price measures and sample restrictions, whereas flexible specifications indicate that price moderation is not well summarized by a single constant-slope shift. The results show that heterogeneity in heating expenditures is not only a matter of household characteristics or building quality, but also of where households stand within a residential spell. |
| Keywords: | Residential energy demand, Residence-duration, Price environments, Germany, SOEP panel data, High-dimensional fixed effects models |
| JEL: | D12 Q41 C23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp1238 |
| By: | Cong Chen; Valentina Norambuena; Lang Tong |
| Abstract: | We study ramping procurement co-optimized with economic dispatch under net-demand uncertainty. We examine two flexible ramp product designs implemented by grid operators: single-interval and multi-interval co-optimization. Both rely on rolling-window stochastic optimization with binding and advisory interval decisions. We develop analytical frameworks to evaluate generator profits, consumer payments, bid cost recovery (BCR), and operational efficiency. In particular, net-demand uncertainty may lead to generator under-compensation, requiring discriminatory BCR. While operational efficiency is invariant to energy and ramp prices, producer profits and consumer payments depend critically on pricing. We examine locational marginal pricing (LMP) and two uniform pricing: maximum dispatch cost pricing (MDCP) and maximum temporal locational marginal pricing (MTLMP). With out-of-market BCR, LMP yields discriminatory energy prices, whereas MDCP eliminates BCR and MTLMP does so in most cases. This property enables us to establish truthful bidding incentives for price-taking generators under MDCP. Our analysis highlights trade-offs between single- and multi-interval co-optimization and pricing designs: single-interval energy-ramp co-optimization is advantageous under high forecast uncertainty and moderate ramping requirements, whereas multi-interval co-optimization is superior when net-demand forecasts are relatively accurate and ramp needs are challenging. Empirical results on CAISO and ERCOT data show that MDCP and MTLMP increase producer profits with negligible BCR, albeit at the expense of higher consumer payments relative to LMP. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.19599 |
| By: | Han-Teng Liao; Karen Ang |
| Abstract: | Current scaling trajectories for Generative AI, typified by linear supply-side "stacks, " prioritize performance density while externalizing significant thermodynamic and material costs. As the "Twin Transition" of green and digital transformation accelerates, the industry faces technology gaps - including Scope 3 emissions and e-waste recycling - that impede sustainable scaling and lead to social tensions. This study proposes a Regenerative Socio-Technical roadmap that repurposes the Sustainable Production and Consumption system map to reframe artificial intelligence infrastructure as a system-of-systems governed ultimately by planetary limits. By integrating the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers International Roadmap for Devices and Systems (IEEE IRDS) sustainability considerations for semiconductor facilities, the study proposes a metabolic circuit framework that centers "Values and Needs" within production and consumption relationship loops. This study identifies critical gaps in current Nvidia-centric roadmaps and proposes a competing reference architecture. It demonstrates how a spontaneous order of resource parsimony and planetary accountability can provide an actionable pathway for regulatory compliance and industrial resilience in the digital circular economy. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.10544 |
| By: | Jean-Éric Pelet (Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Basma Taieb (EMLV - École de management Léonard de Vinci); Said Aboubaker Ettis (UJ - University of Jeddah [Arabie Saoudite]); Yihan Wang (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Álvaro Rocha (ISEG, Technical University of Lisbon) |
| Abstract: | This study addresses a critical gap in the literature on sustainable information systems by empirically investigating how national culture shapes perceptions of the environmental impact of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI). Based on a survey of 434 university students from France, Portugal, the United States, and China, the research employs statistical analyses to test for significant cross-national differences. The results reveal pronounced disparities. For instance, while 70% of French respondents express a desire to know the carbon footprint of their AI queries, only 45% of Chinese respondents share this concern. Conversely, Portuguese (72%) and American (62%) students show significantly greater acceptance of environmental usage quotas than their French (41%) and Chinese (40%) counterparts. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) confirms that country of residence is a statistically significant predictor of environmental concern and attitudes toward regulatory measures. These findings challenge universalist "one-size-fits-all" approaches to digital sustainability policy. The study concludes that promoting sustainable AI on a global scale requires context-sensitive strategies aligned with local cultural values, institutional frameworks, and technological ecosystems. We contribute to the Green IS discourse by integrating cross-cultural theory with the emerging debate on "frugal AI." |
| Abstract: | Cette étude comble une lacune importante dans la littérature sur les systèmes d'information durables en examinant empiriquement comment la culture nationale influence la perception de l'impact environnemental de l'intelligence artificielle générative (IAG). Fondée sur une enquête menée auprès de 434 étudiants universitaires en France, au Portugal, aux États-Unis et en Chine, la recherche utilise des analyses statistiques pour tester l'existence de différences significatives entre les pays. Les résultats révèlent des disparités marquées. Par exemple, alors que 70 % des répondants français souhaitent connaître l'empreinte carbone de leurs requêtes d'IA, seuls 45 % des répondants chinois partagent cette préoccupation. À l'inverse, les étudiants portugais (72 %) et américains (62 %) se montrent nettement plus favorables aux quotas d'utilisation environnementale que leurs homologues français (41 %) et chinois (40 %). L'analyse de variance (ANOVA) confirme que le pays de résidence est un facteur prédictif statistiquement significatif de la préoccupation environnementale et des attitudes envers les mesures réglementaires. Ces résultats remettent en question les approches universalistes et uniformes des politiques de durabilité numérique. L'étude conclut que la promotion d'une IA durable à l'échelle mondiale exige des stratégies adaptées au contexte, alignées sur les valeurs culturelles locales, les cadres institutionnels et les écosystèmes technologiques. Nous contribuons au discours sur les systèmes d'information verts en intégrant la théorie interculturelle au débat émergent sur « l'IA frugale ». |
| Keywords: | Digital Sobriety, Frugal Innovation, Environmental Awareness, Green Information Systems (Green IS), Cross-Cultural Studies, Generative AI, Sustainable AI |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05630387 |
| By: | Miller, Hugh; Morandi, Pau |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138718 |
| By: | Andrea Pannone; Francesco Giancaterini; Tiziano Bacaloni; Andrea Bernardini; Alessio Abeltino |
| Abstract: | The energy sector is a cornerstone of national strategic autonomy, yet its increasing financialization has transformed ownership structures into complex networked configurations. This paper investigates the distribution of economic power in the Italian energy sector by introducing two sector-level extensions of the Network Power framework: the Aggregate Network Power Index (A-NPI) and the Aggregate Network Power Flow (A-NPF). Unlike traditional macro-level measures, these indices aggregate firm-level control and influence into a systemic framework that accounts for the relative economic weight of each operator. Applying this framework to the Italian case reveals a "Governance Paradox": while the State retains formal majority ownership, the sector's deepening reliance on global capital markets and the pervasive presence of common ownership by transnational institutional investors have progressively hollowed out public strategic direction. The results show that capital centralization enables global financial actors to internalize sectoral competition, fostering a regime of tacit strategic convergence in the management of critical infrastructure. This configuration challenges European strategic autonomy, raising questions about the adequacy of traditional Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) screening and antitrust tools in addressing the systemic influence exerted through networked ownership structures. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.25555 |
| By: | Saakstra, Sake |
| Abstract: | We evaluate six major clean-hydrogen policy interventions across four jurisdictions (US 45Q, US 45V three-pillars NPRM, EU Innovation Fund, EU CBAM, UK Track-1, China 14th Five-Year Plan) using a project-level panel of 1, 354 announced hydrogen developments from the S&P Global Hydrogen Project Database (2010-2026). Treatment effects on cumulative cancellation probability are estimated using modern difference-in-differences estimators (Sun-Abraham IW, Borusyak-Jaravel-Spiess imputation, IPWRA matching, Synthetic DiD, Causal Forests, and Deaner-Ku hazard DiD) and accompanied by Rambachan-Roth honest-sensitivity bounds. Three substantive findings emerge. First, the magnitude ranking of policy effects (China 14th FYP > US 45Q > UK Track-1 > EU Innovation Fund) systematically follows the number of economic frictions each instrument addresses, not the per-unit monetary value of the subsidy. The China FYP estimate of -4.5 percentage points (honest-DiD breakdown M* = 1.5) exceeds the US 45Q estimate of -3.4 percentage points (M* = 0.2) despite comparable per-unit subsidy value, consistent with multi-friction mechanism dominance. Second, two informative nulls are identified: the EU Innovation Fund produces a precise null across six convergent estimators, and the EU CBAM produces a precise null across eight convergent estimators. The substantive interpretation is that the financing-constraint friction is not binding in the contemporary capital-abundant hydrogen environment, and that border-adjustment transmission to project-level investment decisions is weak in the early-implementation phase. Third, the US 45V three-pillars NPRM triple-difference estimate of +0.285 on US-Green cancellation hazard identifies friction amplification by policy design - the cleanest empirical test of perverse-direction sigma-channel effects in the sample. The methodological contribution is a pre-registered mechanism-falsifiability framework that disciplines mechanism interpretation against post-hoc rationalisation, combined with multi-method triangulation that strengthens both confirmatory and informative-null inferences. The policy implication is that reform of capex-grant instruments such as the EU Innovation Fund should incorporate offtake-commitment eligibility requirements, jointly addressing both financing and counterparty-risk frictions. |
| Keywords: | difference-in-differences, honest sensitivity, clean hydrogen, carbon pricing, policy evaluation, mechanism design, carbon border adjustment |
| JEL: | C21 C23 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129309 |
| By: | Liao, Han-Teng; Ang, Karen |
| Abstract: | The semiconductor sector faces a dual transition: scaling manufacturing execution through Artificial Intelligence (AI) while satisfying stringent sustainability mandates, such as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This paper presents a scoping review of 1, 465 documents indexed in Web of Science and Scopus, spanning AI-integrated metrology, supply chain ESG, and federated industrial data spaces. Network analysis reveals a highly fragmented "core-periphery" knowledge structure, emphasizing a critical structural hole between AI-driven process optimization and downstream sustainability governance. To close these gaps, this study proposes a 6-layer Safe and Sustainable by Design (SSbD) architecture grounded in a System of Systems (SoS) paradigm. By establishing distinct "grid-to-core" and "standards-through-supply-chain" integration pathways, the proposed framework demonstrates how virtual metrology (VM), localized federated learning, and defensive RegTech mechanisms can build provenance-aware data fabrics. Ultimately, this architecture positions regulatory compliance as a driver for innovation, enabling secure, climate-neutral, and circular value chains in semiconductor manufacturing. |
| Date: | 2026–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:yknwt_v1 |
| By: | Saakstra, Sake |
| Abstract: | Pre-financial-investment-decision (pre-FID) offtake commitments in clean-hydrogen projects reduce the cumulative cancellation probability by 11.3 to 13.2 percentage points across five convergent matching estimators (IPWRA, OLS-adjusted, regression-adjusted matching, doubly-robust IPTW, naive IPW), using a project-level panel of 1, 354 announced developments from the S&P Global Hydrogen Project Database (2010-2026). The estimate is exceptionally robust to unobserved-confounder bias: the Oster delta_null = 20.23 implies that for unobservables to explain the effect, they would need to be twenty times more influential than the maximally-included set of observable controls. This is the largest and most identification-secure treatment effect in the related dissertation work. The substantive interpretation invokes the sigma-channel of the real-options framework: offtake commitments reduce revenue volatility and counterparty risk simultaneously. The sigma-channel comparative statics predict that revenue-volatility-reducing instruments should produce larger effects in high-volatility sectors than in low-volatility sectors. We test this prediction directly via cross-sectoral heterogeneity: the offtake-commitment ATT is concentrated in power and heat (-0.30 pp) and transport (-0.27 pp), and substantially smaller or null in chemical (-0.04 pp) and refinery (-0.02 pp). The pattern matches the sigma-channel prediction in sign and approximate magnitude, providing direct mechanism-identifying empirical evidence that complements the average-treatment-effect identification. The methodological contribution is a cross-sectoral heterogeneity test as a direct mechanism-identifying strategy, supplementing the conventional partial-identification sensitivity analysis (Oster bounds). The policy implication is that capex-grant programmes such as the EU Innovation Fund should incorporate demonstrable pre-FID offtake-commitment eligibility requirements, jointly addressing the financing-constraint friction (the Innovation Fund's current target) and the counterparty-risk friction (the Innovation Fund currently leaves unaddressed). |
| Keywords: | offtake commitment, counterparty risk, revenue volatility, real options, sectoral heterogeneity, matching estimators, Oster sensitivity, clean hydrogen |
| JEL: | D81 G31 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129304 |
| By: | Aline MORTHA; Toshi H. ARIMURA |
| Abstract: | Characterized by higher political acceptability, voluntary environmental policies are becoming increasingly popular, but their effect on economic activity is unclear. In this research, we evaluated the impact of a voluntary cap-and-trade system on the economic performance of manufacturing plants, analyzing the case of the Japanese Saitama ETS (SETS), implemented in 2011. This policy was implemented more than a decade ago, but little is known about its economic impact. We utilize a rich dataset containing data from Japanese plants from 2004 to 2019 and estimate the average treatment effect of the policy using DiD and PSM methods. Our results showed that SETS had a positive effect on value added, estimated between 6.07% to 27.92%, compared with non-targeted plants. This policy also had a positive impact on employment, as wages are shown to increase by 3.66%, along with increased labor productivity (5.26%) of similar magnitude. The positive effects of the policy are mostly experienced by plants in non-energy-intensive sectors, as well as plants belonging to SMEs. The policy also did not affect the plants’ competitiveness, as increases in total costs are compensated by higher revenue. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26048 |
| By: | Eun Kyo Cho (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Chuel Cho (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Woo Jung Shim (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Sangsoo Park (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Advanced manufacturing industries targeted by the Made in China 2025 strategy, such as robots, semiconductors, electric vehicles (EVs, including autonomous driving), and batteries, have grown exponentially since 2015. With the exception of semiconductors, several categories within robots, batteries, and EVs have exceeded the localization targets outlined in the strategy. China now holds an overall value chain advantage over South Korea in these sectors. Across R&D, procurement (supply chain), production, services, and demand markets (both domestic and overseas), China maintains an edge in robots, EVs, batteries, and autonomous vehicles. Korea retains superiority in equipment procurement, sales and maintenance services, and overseas demand for the semiconductor industry, driven by its memory chip competitiveness. Korea also maintains a slight lead in robotics R&D capabilities for product development and design.<p> While the expanding rivalry poses threats to Korean industries, opportunities exist to differentiate in advanced and niche markets. China’s price competitiveness, its expanding dominance in new AI-based markets, and its internalizing supply chains are common threats. However, leveraging its overall technological prowess and process expertise in materials, components, and equipment, Korea maintains a qualitative advantage in certain categories. Korea must seek to enter global premium markets, such as the US and the EU, emphasizing stability and reliability.<p> Up to now, Korean industry has pursued an “ultra-gap” strategy, in which firms sought to maintain wide competitive moats against their Chinese competitors. This strategy is no longer viable. Korea urgently needs to shift its policy toward competitive cooperation and strategic utilization, and secure a position in the future ecosystems that China aims to dominate, actively utilizing China’s high-tech and technological ecosystems. We must discover new cooperative models that combine China’s technology, production base, and data with Korea’s innovative ideas. |
| Keywords: | China; Chinese manufacturing; manufacturing industry; advanced manufacturing; robots; semiconductors; electric vehicles; EVs; batteries; competition; competition policy; competitiveness; Korea-China c |
| JEL: | F13 F23 F53 L60 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:022842 |