|
on Energy Economics |
| By: | Tooraj Jamasb; Catharina Sikow-Magny |
| Keywords: | Electricity grid, cross-border investment, cost allocation, information asymmetry, energy policy |
| JEL: | C7 D0 L94 Q4 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2614 |
| By: | Costanza Caprini; Maximilian Studtrucker |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an EU-wide assessment of the potential contribution of the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions, assuming full implementation of the measures included in national Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRPs) as described at the cut-off date of the analysis. Building on the methodology used in the Commission’s NextGenerationEU (NGEU) Green Bond reporting, the analysis translates quantitative output indicators from national RRPs into estimated annual GHG emission savings using a harmonised, output-based approach. The results indicate that RRF-supported investments can generate approximately 54 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO₂e) of annual emission savings (around 1.5% of EU emissions in 2021), while RRF-supported reforms contribute 52 MtCO₂e in annual emission savings (around 1.4%), based on a subset of measures that can be quantified. The estimated mitigation effects are concentrated in energy efficiency and sustainable mobility for investments, and in renewable energy and clean energy infrastructure for reforms.The analysis also highlights significant cross-country variation, driven primarily by differences in sectoral composition, national baseline conditions and methodological coverage, rather than differences in the RRPs’ climate ambition. Estimated impacts should be interpreted as indicative, as the analysis excludes financial instruments and measures lacking quantifiable outputs, implying that results represent a lower-bound estimate. Overall, the findings suggest that the RRF makes a meaningful contribution to the achievement of the EU’s climate targets, as well as the acceleration of the energy transition, through both its investment and reform components. The analysis also illustrates the importance of robust indicator design for future policy evaluation. |
| JEL: | Q58 Q54 Q48 H54 O44 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euf:dispap:246 |
| By: | Basaglia, Piero; Behr, Sophie; Drupp, Moritz |
| Abstract: | We investigate how fuel taxation reduces climate and pollution externalities by evaluating the world’s largest environmental tax reform. Using spatially detailed emissions data from more than 1, 000 European regions in a synthetic difference-in-differences framework, we evaluate the impact of Germany’s 1999 ecological tax reform on transport-related carbon and air pollutant emissions. We document sizable aggregate reductions for all emissions, exceeding 10 percent on average per year relative to synthetic baselines. Using official damage valuations, we estimate avoided external costs of more than €100 billion, two-thirds of which stem from health benefits due to reduced air pollution. Emission reductions and associated monetized benefits are larger in lower-income regions, contrasting with a slightly regressive distribution of fuel costs. These findings underscore the importance of incorporating air quality co-benefits when evaluating the efficiency and distributional effects of fuel and carbon pricing. |
| Keywords: | Environmental policy; climate |
| JEL: | Q58 H23 I18 R48 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20453 |
| By: | Bonfiglioli, Alessandra; Crinò, Rosario; Filomena, Mattia; Gancia, Gino |
| Abstract: | We study the environmental impact of artificial intelligence (AI) using a novel dataset that links measures of AI penetration, the location of data centers and power plants, and CO2 emissions across US commuting zones between 2002 and 2022. Our analysis yields four main findings. First, exploiting a shift–share identification strategy, we show that localities more exposed to AI experience relatively faster emissions growth. Second, decomposition results indicate that scale effects dominate, while changes in industrial composition exert at most a weak mitigating effect; at the same time, electricity generation becomes more carbon intensive. Third, AI penetration raises dependence on non-renewable electricity. Fourth, proximity to data centers is a key driver of this effect, as nearby power plants shift toward greater fossil fuel use. These findings suggest that, absent a rapid decarbonization of power generation, the diffusion of AI is likely to exacerbate environmental externalities through the energy demand of data centers. |
| Keywords: | Data Centers; Environment; Emissions; Pollution |
| JEL: | O33 Q55 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20686 |
| By: | Feher, Adam; Garcia-Appendini, Emilia; Mihet, Roxana |
| Abstract: | We leverage a novel dataset on U.S. data center energy loads, utility electricity prices, and establishment-level revenues, employment, and carbon emissions from 2010 to 2023 to examine whether rising data center demand affects local retail energy prices or other spillovers. For identification, we employ an instrumental variables continuous difference-in-differences design, exploiting exogenous variation in data center location attractiveness. We find no detectable local spillover effects from data center energy growth. A regional model calibrated to these null results suggests that shocks larger than those observed through 2023 could still result in noticeable increases in household utility bills if not offset by regulation or external supply. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Technology adoption; Data Centers |
| JEL: | Q55 Q58 O44 L94 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20758 |
| By: | Ambec, Stefan; Crampes, Claude; Lamp, Stefan |
| Abstract: | The energy transition requires significant investment in intermittent renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power. New generation capacities are generally procured through fixed price contracts, such as power purchase agreements and contracts for difference, or feed-in tariffs. With these designs, renewable technologies are selected based on their generation, regardless of their adequacy with demand and supply by other technologies. We show that fixed-price contracts implement the optimal portfolio of renewable technologies if the price is adjusted with a technology-specific bonus-malus system that depends on the correlation between renewable energy production and the wholesale electricity price. We estimate the bonus-malus for solar and wind power in California, France, Germany, and Spain and decompose it to identify the key market factors driving the adjustment. We argue that the bonus-malus measures the cost of integrating intermittent generation into the energy mix. Therefore, it should be added to the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) to obtain the cost of generating an additional megawatt-hour with a specific renewable technology. |
| Keywords: | Electricity market |
| JEL: | D47 L23 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20429 |
| By: | Desbureaux, Sebastien; Collart, Lara; Stoop, Nik; Soubeyran, Raphael; Verpoorten, Marijke; Couttenier, Mathieu; Cikesa, Christine; de la Croix Kembere Mulwahili, Jean; Shinagawa, Natsuno |
| Abstract: | Our randomized control trial investigates how to accelerate the transition to clean cooking and quantifies the benefits for people and the environment. Fully subsidizing the purchase of an electric cooker to 1, 594 urban households in the DRC led to widespread adoption (85%) and high usage (28% of meals). Charcoal consumption decreased by 34%, reducing overall monthly energy costs by $5.76 despite higher electricity spending. The rise in electricity purchases enables subsidy recovery through a razor-and-blade model. After one year, the welfare gains, including lower CO2 emissions and improved protection for mountain gorillas, are twice as high as the cost of the subsidy. |
| JEL: | Q42 O13 Q51 Q57 C93 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20403 |
| By: | Känzig, Diego |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the economic impacts of carbon pricing. Exploiting institutional features of the European carbon market and high-frequency data, I identify carbon policy shocks and trace their dynamic effects. A restrictive carbon policy shock raises energy prices, reduces emissions, spurs green innovation, but decreases economic activity—disproportionately burdening poorer households. Not only are the poor more affected because of their higher energy spending, but they also experience larger income losses. These indirect, general-equilibrium effects via income and employment play an important role in the transmission of carbon pricing policies, accounting for about two-thirds of the aggregate consumption response. |
| Keywords: | Carbon pricing |
| JEL: | E32 E62 H23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20405 |
| By: | Koetter, Michael; Popov, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Exploiting three decades of detailed regional data for Germany, we find that when the Green Party is successful at the polls, local hazardous emissions decline. The level of political representation matters, too. Green politicians’ gaining influence at county level is followed largely by a decline in air pollutants that have an immediate adverse health effect. In contrast, when the Green party joins the state government, only greenhouse gas emissions that affect the welfare of future generations via climate change decline. The primary mechanism to achieve lower emissions appears to be a reduction in output, rather than more efficient energy use. |
| Keywords: | Elections; Growth |
| JEL: | D72 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20773 |
| By: | Newbery, D. M. |
| Abstract: | Ambitious European energy plans envisage a large increase in Variable Renewable Electricity (VRE), often located distant from demand and congesting existing transmission. Many countries recognise the importance of better locational signals for investment and operation, and possible changes to VRE support systems to reduce risk and cost. This paper argues that an efficient low-carbon transition requires a suitable portfolio of reforms to transmission and market pricing and VRE support design, with different combinations suitable when some options (like spatial transmission charges or locational wholesale pricing) are ruled out. |
| Keywords: | Variable Renewable Electricity, Curtailment, Congestion, Locational Pricing, Transmission Pricing |
| JEL: | L94 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2646 |
| By: | Fabien Prieur (CEE-M) |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic model of exhaustible resource exploitation, with exploration, in which a regulator determines the end date of the fossil regime by trading off industry profits against climate damages. The weight assigned to damages reflects the fossil industry's pre-existing political influence. We compare Nash and Stackelberg interactions between the industry and the regulator. Under Nash behavior, regulation shortens the fossil regime and reduces cumulative emissions relative to the unregulated benchmark. Under Stackelberg leadership, however, a monopoly may increase exploration relative to the Nash outcome in order to delay the transition. Calibrating the model to global oil market data, we obtain that strategic leadership increases reserves by approximately 7% relative to the Nash outcome and delays the transition by about 2-3 years. The analysis thus provides an explanation for sustained upstream fossil fuel investment despite announced net-zero commitments. |
| Keywords: | exploration, energy transition, political influence, Nash vs Stackelberg interaction, |
| JEL: | D72 C73 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2026.05 |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Atikuzzaman Shazeed |
| Abstract: | The Interim Government of Bangladesh, as a part of its reform initiatives in the power and energy sector, has repealed the Quick Enhancement of Electricity and Energy Supply (Special Provision) Act, established in 2010. As a result, public procurement in the power and energy sector will be conducted according to the Public Procurement Act (PPA) and Public Procurement Rule (PPR). Under the PPA and PPR, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources (MoPEMR) has invited tenders of 55 solar power plants of sizes ranging from 10 MW to 250 MW in four lots since December 2024. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy, Public Procurement, Energy Procurement, Solar Power, Power Sector, Procurement Rules, Energy Transition, Transparency, Accountability, Bangladesh Energy |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:89 |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Atikuzzaman Shazeed |
| Abstract: | This study provides the first comprehensive assessment of Bangladesh’s renewable energy procurement following the repeal of the Quick Enhancement of Electricity and Energy Supply (Special Provision) Act, 2010. Drawing on legal analysis, international best practices, procurement data, and a large enterprise survey, the report examines how the reinstated Public Procurement Act (2006) and Public Procurement Rule (2008) are shaping transparency, accountability, and efficiency in the country’s transition toward competitive renewable energy auctions. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy, Public Procurement, Energy Procurement, Solar Tenders, Transparency, Accountability, Procurement Efficiency, Energy Transition, Grid Connectivity, Bangladesh Energy |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:report:79 |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Jebunnesa; Mehadi Hasan Shamim |
| Abstract: | Bangladesh’s power sector is at a crossroads. While national policies envision an ambitious shift towards renewable energy, progress on the ground has remained slow and fragmented. This study provides a timely and evidence-based roadmap to address these challenges by reassessing demand projections and proposing a realistic fuel mix for 2030, 2035, and 2040. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy, Power Generation, Energy Transition, Solar Energy, Wind Energy, Climate Finance, Energy Investment, SMART Targets, Energy Policy, Bangladesh Energy |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:report:75 |
| By: | Stefano Carattini; Hanwei Huang; Tejendra P. Singh; Frank Pisch |
| Abstract: | Although the environmental impact of trade has been a long-standing concern, there is still scant evidence on the channels through which international market access affects pollution. We exploit the unique episode of China's world market integration in the early 2000s to provide direct empirical evidence on three such mechanisms, corresponding to each pollution scope: direct pollution at firms' locations (scope-1), indirect pollution from energy generation (scope-2), and indirect pollution from the supply chain (scope-3). We combine granular satellite data on air pollution with detailed information on manufacturing firms and coal power plants, and leverage exogenous foreign demand shocks for identification. Three main findings emerge: exporting firms reduce local pollution; pollution levels around coal power plants rise due to regional export shocks; and upstream suppliers reduce pollution in the face of export demand shocks to downstream firms. Our findings point to China's reliance on coal power plants to fuel its export-driven growth as one of the main drivers of the rise in pollution. |
| Keywords: | trade, pollution, satellite, supply chain, coal power plants, electricity |
| Date: | 2026–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2198 |
| By: | Fabra, Natalia; Leblanc, Clement; Souza, Mateus |
| Abstract: | The 2021-2023 European energy crisis, triggered by the war in Ukraine, led to broad policy interventions in energy markets. In contrast to the retail-side measures and public transfers implemented elsewhere, Spain and Portugal targeted the wholesale electricity market through the so-called Iberian solution. We quantify the distributional implications of the crisis and this market intervention on Spanish electricity firms and across consumer groups. We find that the crisis shifted substantial wealth from consumers to generators, with regressive impacts among consumers. Conversely, the policy’s relief was progressive, delivering larger gains to lower-income groups. |
| JEL: | L94 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20593 |
| By: | Mazzocchetti, Andrea; Monasterolo, Irene; Vismara, Andrea |
| Abstract: | We analyse how banks’ climate sentiments affect credit risk adjustments and lending conditions for high- and low- carbon investments and the implications for firms’ investments and the decarbonization of the economy. We model climate sentiments as banks forming expectations about firms’ performance in the low-carbon transition scenarios of the Network for Greening the Financial System, based on firms’ energy technology alignment and on perceived policy credibility. We distinguish between high climate sentiments, i.e. banks’ strong confidence in the success of climate policies and the future performance of low-carbon firms, and low sentiments. To anaylse these dynamics we tailor and extend EIRIN, a macro-financial Stock-Flow Consistent model of an open economy, and widely used by financial supervisors. EIRIN is populated by a limited number of heterogeneous agents and sectors, with the real and financial side of the economy treated in an integrated way. Calibrating EIRIN on the Austrian economy, we find that high banks’ climate sentiments can reinforce the impact of climate policies, resulting in a 4.5% reduction in the GHG emissions to GDP ratio and in a 0.6% increase in GDP growth, compared to the Net Zero scenario without climate sentiments. Conversely, low climate sentiments can counteract climate policy impacts, leading to an 8.5% increase in GHG emissions to GDP ratio. Furthermore, credit constraints on low-carbon investments can further hinder the low-carbon transition, increasing the GHG emissions to GDP ratio by 15%. Our findings highlight the importance for policy makers to deliver clear and credible messages about the low-carbon transition to the banking sector, in order to align expectations and investment decisions. |
| Keywords: | Banks; Climate finance; Climate policy |
| JEL: | B59 C69 G20 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20520 |
| By: | Ana B. Crist\'obal (0000-0002-4314-6160); Daniel Sierra (0000-0002-6289-7605); Laura Palomino (0000-0002-6289-7605); Luis Miguel Carrasco (0000-0002-6289-7605); Luis Narvarte (0000-0002-6289-7605) |
| Abstract: | The success of distributed photovoltaics may be undermining its own future. As solar penetration increases, electricity prices decline during periods of peak generation, reducing the value of surplus photovoltaic production. This raises a critical question: can citizen-led energy systems remain economically viable in electricity markets dominated by renewable generation? Rather than exploring technically optimal but institutionally unrealistic solutions, we examine the options available under current regulatory and market conditions. Using high-resolution consumption data from a rural community sharing a PV facility among 24 users, we identify pathways for long-term sustainability. The study makes two contributions. First, it shows that effective internal coordination can mobilize participation and investment as successfully as external subsidies. Second, it compares static, dynamic, and hybrid energy-sharing models, with and without storage, providing a flexible framework that balances efficiency, fairness, and governance. Results show that collective self-consumption reduces required PV capacity, lowers investment costs, and increases annual savings compared with individually operated systems. Alternative allocation schemes further improve benefit distribution and local electricity use, although gains depend on trade-offs between efficiency, fairness, and governance complexity. Under current electricity prices and remuneration schemes, battery storage provides limited additional economic value and becomes attractive only under specific market conditions. Overall, the long-term viability of citizen-led photovoltaic initiatives depends less on technological sophistication than on collective coordination and adaptive governance. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.30359 |
| By: | van Wijnbergen, Sweder |
| Abstract: | Climate change and its two-way relation with economic activity is stochastic and so is therefore the optimal tax internalizing the climate externality. But with capital irreversibility a stochastic time path for carbon prices slows down the reallocation from brown to green sectors because waiting then acquires an option value. We show that it is optimal to pre-announce a time path for future carbon taxes, eliminating the option value of waiting at the cost of suboptimality of the pre-announced taxes at the time they apply. We analyse for how long carbon taxes should be pre-announced and which factors influence that timespan. |
| Keywords: | Carbon taxes |
| JEL: | G13 H2 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20438 |
| By: | Aghion, Philippe; Barrage, Lint; Donald, Eric; Hémous, David; Liu, Ernest |
| Abstract: | We analyze a model of green technological transition along a supply chain. The model generates a unique equilibrium for given initial conditions but multiple steady states. We show that: (i) even in the presence of Pigouvian environmental taxation, targeted sectoral subsidies are generally necessary to implement the social optimum; (ii) small, targeted industrial policy may bring large welfare gains; (iii) a government which is unable to subsidize greenification in more than one sector or price carbon at its true social cost should primarily target downstream sectors; (iv) overinvesting in greenification in the wrong upstream branch may derail the overall transition towards greenification. Finally, we calibrate our model to decarbonization of heavy duty transportation (trucking, aviation, etc.) via hydrogen. We find that, absent industrial policy, the economy can get stuck in the “wrong†steady-state with CO2 emissions vastly above the social optimum even with a Pigouvian carbon price in place. |
| Keywords: | Supply chain; Innovation; Network; Climate change |
| JEL: | O25 O31 O33 O44 Q55 L14 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20378 |
| By: | Qiao, Xiyuan; Tang, Xinmeng |
| Abstract: | From the perspective of industrial enterprise profits, this study explores the theoretical mechanism underlying the inverted U- shaped relationship between carbon trading prices in the carbon emissions trading market and carbon dioxide emissions. Using panel data from 300 Chinese cities covering the period 2005–2023, a continuous difference-in-differences model was employed to examine the non-linear effects of carbon trading prices on carbon emissions. The results indicate that carbon prices in local carbon markets may lead to increased emissions when prices are low, while emission reduction effects emerge only when prices exceed a critical threshold. Robustness checks support the baseline results. Mediating mechanism tests reveal that industrial enterprise profits serve as the channel through which carbon prices exert their inverted U-shaped impact on emissions. The regional heterogeneity analysis revealed that the inverted U-shaped impact of carbon prices on carbon emissions is more pronounced in northern regions and the Yangtze River Basin compared to the Pearl River Basin, with a stronger transmission effect. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404835 |
| By: | Fabra, Natalia; Llobet, Gerard |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the limitations of spot markets in providing adequate investment incentives to support zero-carbon investments in electricity markets. In contrast, properly designed long-term contracts have the potential to mitigate price volatility and facilitate the funding of the investments. A theoretical model is developed to analyze contract design under conditions of moral hazard and adverse selection, emphasizing the trade-offs that arise when exposing firms to price and quantity risk. The findings inform optimal contract design for nuclear and renewable energy projects, offering policy recommendations to enhance investment incentives while minimizing productive inefficiencies and excessive rents. |
| JEL: | L13 L94 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20328 |
| By: | Klaus M. Frahm; Dima L. Shepelyansky |
| Abstract: | Based on public data, we analyze the distributions of energy and carbon emission over world countries on a scale of the last 40-50 years using their presentation via Lorenz and Pareto curves. These curves in rescaled format remain remarkably stable on this time period being characterized by high values of the Gini coefficient indicating a strong inequality of energy distribution. To explain these distributions, we introduce the ENergy Thermalization Hypothesis (ENTH) according to which these distributions result from the Rayleigh-Jeans (RJ) thermalization and condensation of agents representing different countries. We show that this hypothesis provides an excellent description of Lorenz and Pareto curves obtained from data on the above time period. It also gives natural grounds for inequality relating it to the RJ condensation at low energy states. We additionally trace parallels with the wealth inequality in the world. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.07315 |
| By: | Nuobu Renzhi (Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing); John Beirne (Asian Development Bank); Le Ngoc Dang (Academy of Finance, Ha Noi) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on carbon emissions in 13 emerging market economies (EMEs), using panel local projections over the period 1990 to 2023. The results indicate that rising EPU significantly increases carbon emissions. However, the impact varies across economic and institutional characteristics. Specifically, EMEs with lower initial carbon emissions, higher energy intensity, carbon pricing mechanisms, greater financial development, higher trade openness, stronger political stability, greater renewable energy reliance, and higher research and development intensity exhibit a weaker response to EPU. Moreover, high-income EMEs experience a muted response in emissions, whereas lowerincome EMEs face a more pronounced impact. Additionally, EMEs with low climate vulnerability see a stronger positive response in emissions compared to their high-vulnerability counterparts. These findings highlight the critical role of institutional and structural factors in shaping the emissions response to EPU, offering important policy insights for mitigating environmental risks in uncertain economic conditions. |
| Keywords: | economic policy uncertainty;carbon emissions;emerging market economies |
| JEL: | O13 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–07–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:023057 |
| By: | Gormsen, Niels; Huber, Kilian; Oh, Sangmin S. |
| Abstract: | In theory, a cost of capital channel can incentivize green investments like a carbon tax. This channel requires that firms perceive the cost of green capital as lower than that of brown capital. Using hand-collected data, we show that green firms have indeed perceived their cost of capital to be 1 percentage point lower since 2016, when climate concerns by financial investors and governments surged. Moreover, some energy firms have used a lower cost of capital for their green divisions. The findings suggest that the cost of capital can incentivize capital reallocation toward greener investments across firms and within firms. |
| Keywords: | ESG |
| JEL: | G10 G12 G31 G32 G41 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20406 |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Helen Mashiyat Preoty; Abrar Ahammed Bhuiyan; Mehadi Hasan Shamim |
| Abstract: | Bangladesh has embarked on an ambitious journey to expand renewable energy through the National Rooftop Solar Programme 2025, which targets 3, 000 MW of capacity on government, educational, and health sector rooftops. Whilst the decision is timely and commendable, the programme’s success will depend on addressing critical challenges of design, financing, procurement, and long-term O&M. This special report by CPD Power and Energy Study offers a detailed review of global rooftop solar experiences, lessons from Dhaka’s earlier initiative, and a critical analysis of the current programme’s policy framework. |
| Keywords: | Rooftop Solar, Renewable Energy, Solar Programme, Energy Transition, Solar Policy, Transparent Procurement, Technical Quality, Programme Monitoring, Energy Financing, Bangladesh Energy, |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:report:78 |
| By: | Jaime Leyva; Roberto Panzica; Ｍichela Rancan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of oil shock on firms and the transmission role that the banking sector can play. In case of an oil supply news shock, as defined by Kanzig (2021), more energy-dependent firms expand their balance sheets less and decrease their investment relative to other firms. Using bank–firm level data, we show that banks play a key role as they reduce lending when they have a larger loan portfolio exposed to energy. Energy-exposed banks also adjust the terms of the loans, such as interest rate, thus contributing to exacerbate oil shock for the real sector. Our findings suggest that the effect of an oil shock is not confined to oil-dependent industries, highlighting the broader transmission channels through which oil shocks affect firms. |
| JEL: | G21 D20 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w202606 |
| By: | Burgess, Robin (Department of Economics, LSE); Greenstone, Michael (Department of Economics, University of Chicago); Ryan, Nicholas (Department of Economics, Yale University); Sudarshan, Anant (Department of Economics, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Off-grid solar promises a low-cost and carbon-free path to electrification. But will poor households choose off-grid power? We run a multi-year pricing experiment in rural India to estimate demand over all electricity sources, including off-grid solar, diesel generators, and both formal and informal connections to the grid. We find that off grid solar is an important stop-gap, but households value grid electrification five times more. The grid, however, decreases global surplus, both because household payments do not cover the cost of supply, in an environment with high informality, and because grid connections increase carbon damages. We apply our model to data from Africa and find a similarly strong preference for the grid among households there, underscoring the external validity of our results. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:814 |
| By: | Bigio, Saki; Känzig, Diego; Sánchez, Pablo; Walsh, Conor |
| Abstract: | Despite broad acceptance among economists, carbon taxes face persistent public resistance. We measure the sources and distribution of welfare losses from unexpected European carbon price changes by estimating their impact on consumer prices, labor income, financial wealth, and government transfers. A 1% carbon-policy-induced increase in energy prices leads to an average welfare loss of about 0.5% of a household’s three-year consumption, primarily driven by indirect labor-income effects. Younger, poorer, and less educated households, especially in Southern and Eastern Europe, bear a disproportionate burden. These findings suggest public opposition to carbon taxes could stem from legitimate distributional concerns. |
| Keywords: | Carbon pricing |
| JEL: | D31 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20545 |
| By: | Cherbonnier, Frédéric; Ivaldi, Marc; Muller-Vibes, Catherine; Van Der Straeten, Karine |
| Abstract: | This study estimates the impact of a carbon tax on welfare, considering modal shifts to less carbon-intensive transport, as well as its effects on environmental and fiscal externalities. We calibrate a modal competition model using logit demand functions for a specific long-distance connection in France and simulate the introduction of a Pigouvian tax. Our key findings are: First, a €190/tCO2 carbon tax is nearly welfare-neutral but significantly detrimental to consumer surplus; Second, rail price regulation has the side effect of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by subsidizing the cleanest transport mode; Third, the widespread adoption of electric vehicles enhances overall welfare without significantly harming consumer surplus. |
| JEL: | D43 L91 R40 Q51 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20515 |
| By: | Graziano, Marcello; Michieka, Nyakundi; Musso, Marta; Fouquet, Roger |
| Abstract: | This study examines the influence of renewable portfolio standards (RPS) on coal industry employment and wages in the top 10 U.S. coal-producing states from 2001 to 2018, with a specific focus on the 2003–2009 RPS adoption period. Employing a difference-in-differences methodology and utilizing data encompassing employment, gas prices, and RPS-related MWh at the quarterly level, our findings reveal that RPS had only temporary and minor adverse effects on coal employment. These effects manifested with a delay of up to four quarters but dissipated within two years. Moreover, RPS had no significant impact on state’s coal sector wages. |
| Keywords: | coal;energy transition;labor markets;renewable energy;renewable portfolio standards;wages |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:139019 |
| By: | Jevan Cherniwchan; Juan Moreno-Cruz |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run effects of England's transition from wood to coal. We develop a Malthusian model in which energy transitions arise endogenously from population growth and alter population dynamics. We derive an estimating equation from our model and take it to county population data spanning 1086 to 1750, exploiting variation in the appropriability of coal created by the Dissolution of the Monasteries to address the endogeneity of when and where transitions occur. Our estimates confirm our model's predictions: population dynamics change starkly because of the transition, raising the population density of affected counties by roughly 28% by 1750. |
| Keywords: | energy transition, coal, england, malthus, growth |
| JEL: | N53 O13 Q32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12766 |
| By: | Bilal, Adrien; Stock, James |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys the literature that links macroeconomics and climate change. We organize our review into three categories: (i) loss and damage, which assesses long-run economic costs and non-market impacts from climate change; (ii) mitigation and the energy transition, which evaluates the macroeconomic consequences of shifting away from fossil fuels toward renewable energy; and (iii) adaptation, which explores the economic adjustments necessary to manage heat stress, more frequent severe weather events and rising seas. We discuss macroeconomic frameworks that quantify these structural shifts as well as empirical estimates that guide their calibration. We suggest areas in which macroeconomic research on climate is needed. |
| Keywords: | Macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E60 F55 H23 H41 Q43 Q50 R10 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20659 |
| By: | Jevan Cherniwchan; Juan Moreno-Cruz |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run effects of England’s transition from wood to coal. We develop a Malthusian model in which energy transitions arise endogenously from population growth and alter population dynamics. We derive an estimating equation from our model and take it to county population data spanning 1086 to 1750, exploiting variation in the appropriability of coal created by the Dissolution of the Monasteries to address the endogeneity of when and where transitions occur. Our estimates confirm our model’s predictions: population dynamics change starkly because of the transition, raising the population density of affected counties by roughly 28% by 1750. |
| Keywords: | Energy Transition; Coal; England; Malthus; Growth |
| JEL: | N53 O13 Q32 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcm:deptwp:2026-04 |
| By: | Ayalasomayajula, Madhushree; Jondeau, Eric |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a theoretical asset-pricing model to examine how sustainable investors can combine exclusion and engagement strategies to accelerate corporate transition. Firms are classified as green, brown, or reformable, with the latter being polluting firms that can reduce emissions under shareholder pressure. Sustainable investors exclude brown firms but may engage with reformable ones when majority ownership enables them to enforce a transition. Engagement is modeled as a costly but effective mechanism that lowers emissions and generates non-pecuniary benefits for investors. Our main result is that only a moderate share of sustainable investors (around 22.5% of market wealth) is sufficient to trigger reformable firms’ transition, provided they derive a modest non-pecuniary benefit (about 2.3%) from sustainability improvements. In this equilibrium, sustainable investors are willing to concentrate their portfolios in reformable assets, enabling these firms to adopt cleaner technologies and reduce their environmental footprint. The model shows that a relatively small but motivated coalition of investors can induce meaningful environmental change through targeted engagement. |
| JEL: | G11 G12 Q51 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20655 |
| By: | Holmes, Brandon; Robertson, Molly (Resources for the Future); Rennert, Kevin (Resources for the Future); Benes, Keith J.; Baillargeon, Natalie; Katz, Juniper; Nilson, Robi; Hoen, Ben |
| Abstract: | This working paper presents findings from an effort to reconstruct public development timelines for large wind and solar projects in Texas, a state with a significant renewable energy portfolio. We assembled a dataset of project milestones for 32 wind projects and 44 solar projects between 2018 and 2025 across 58 counties, using public records from county commissioners’ courts, school districts, Texas Comptroller files, developer announcements, and other project-specific sources. Our analysis finds that Texas’s renewable energy development often proceeds quickly when compared with projects on federal land and many state-level permitting processes. The median observable development timeline in the sample is roughly 3.5 years, and approval timelines for local tax incentive programs average about 6.5 months for solar projects and 7.5 months for wind projects. However, timelines vary widely with much of this variation occurring before construction, when developers assemble land, negotiate tax and road agreements, secure offtake contracts, procure equipment, and complete grid or federal reviews. These findings highlight the obstacles of drawing uniform conclusions about the success and speed of Texas’s development model, and the need for better project-level data to compare complex renewable energy development timelines across jurisdictions. |
| Date: | 2026–07–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-26-11 |
| By: | van der Ploeg, Frederick; Venables, Anthony |
| Abstract: | Using a dynamic model in which heterogenous consumers make forward-looking choices between brown and green durable goods, we establish conditions under which peer effects lead to multiple steady states and multiple equilibrium path. Policy, such as a green subsidy, needs to exceed a critical threshold level to achieve green transition, and even larger to increase welfare. We analyse the feasibility, speed, and cost of transition showing how they depend on the strength of peer effects, the value of emissions avoided, and on policy employed. Pigouvian policies internalising the externalities associated with climate damage and with peer effects may not be sufficient to lead to a green transition; even if they are, they may not yield net benefits given the costs of transition. Outcomes seem relatively insensitive to the exact form of policy measures, providing they exceed the critical threshold level. |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20764 |
| By: | Axel Dreher; Jingke Pan; Maximilian Herrmann |
| Abstract: | We study how global oil price shocks affect the spatial distribution of violent conflict. Combining monthly georeferenced data on oil infrastructure with conflict events worldwide over 1989-2021, we exploit exogenous variation in world crude oil prices within countries using grid-cell and country*month fixed effects. Oil price increases raise organized conflict in oil-bearing cells but reduce it in nearby non-oil areas, indicating a spatial reallocation of territorial violence toward economically valuable locations rather than a uniform increase in conflict. By contrast, lower-intensity unrest spreads across neighboring cells, consistent with diffuse grievance and mobilization channels. The effect is strongest for petroleum fields and driven by state-based conflict, consistent with intensified contestation over oil rents, while downstream infrastructure is associated with protests and localized violence. The magnitude of the response varies with ethnic exclusion, institutions, geography, and ownership, pointing to rent-contestation mechanisms shaped by local conditions. |
| Keywords: | resource curse, conflict, oil, geoeconomics |
| JEL: | F35 F59 H73 H77 O19 P33 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12761 |
| By: | Giovannetti, Emanuele |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the digitalisation of energy markets, driven by smart meter data and Energy Data Spaces, is reshaping competition in retail electricity services. It analyses the implications for market power, consumer outcomes, and data sovereignty, highlighting the regulatory challenges posed by data-driven business models that operate across national boundaries. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 L81 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138550 |
| By: | Imke Rhoden; Jae-Hyuck Lee |
| Abstract: | The coal phase-out's regional economic impact is a key challenge of the energy transition, as employment and fiscal dependence in coal regions face structural adjustment without automatic market solutions. Analyzing European Union NUTS 2 regions from 2000-2022 with fixed effects and clustered errors, coal regions show a consistent 1.1 percentage points unemployment premium and grow faster in gross domestic product per capita at 0.2 percentage points annually, indicating a hollowing-out process where population exit raises per-capita output while employment conditions worsen. Spatial analysis shows strong geographic clustering, supporting coordinated local and sectoral targeted transition policies. South Korea's rapid phase-out, with Chungnam as a major coal-power region, underscores the need for proactive national support to enable concrete regional action before plants shut down. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.09589 |
| By: | Crosignani, Matteo; Osambela, Emilio; Pritsker, Matt |
| Abstract: | Are carbon emissions priced in equity markets? The literature is split with different approaches yielding conflicting results. We develop a stylized model showing that, if emissions are priced, stock returns depend on expected emissions and the product of the innovation in emissions and the price-dividend ratio. Building on this insight, we derive and test new predictions. We find that emissions are priced in equity markets, but the magnitude of such pricing is highly sensitive to the inclusion of a few “super emitters†(mostly operating in electric power generation). Our theoretical insight also helps reconcile seemingly divergent results in the literature. |
| Keywords: | Carbon emissions; ESG |
| JEL: | D62 G11 G12 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20531 |
| By: | Fleurbaey, Marc; Kornek, Ulrike; Edenhofer, Ottmar |
| Abstract: | An international carbon pricing regime offers significant efficiency gains by avoiding climate change and reducing emissions at least cost. We clarify the role that country-specific prices play with respect to efficiency and burden sharing in an unequal world. Country-specific carbon prices are efficient and serve society's equity objectives if second-best constraints exclude optimal transfers to deal with pre-existing inequalities. This also holds true within the framework of carbon markets, where trade at a common price is just one allocation at the (constrained) Pareto-efficient frontier if the initial permit allocation is fixed. A common carbon price aligns with social objectives if transfers or initial permit allocations can be freely adjusted, and otherwise differentiated prices may be preferable. But the social welfare gains from differentiated carbon prices may vary depending on empirical facts. We present a theoretical model which connects the level of national carbon prices to the choice of social welfare functions that capture various equity principles. With a calibrated integrated assessment model we quantify country-specific carbon prices for a large set of countries and show that they can significantly promote social welfare. |
| JEL: | D62 D63 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20723 |
| By: | Nazaria Solferino |
| Abstract: | Energy poverty persists even among households that are not income-poor, suggesting a deeper mechanism than mere budget constraints. We develop a model in which indoor thermal comfort is produced through a non-convex technology that couples energy input with dwelling efficiency. A critical efficiency threshold emerges below which the minimum comfort level is physically unattainable, regardless of how much energy is purchased. Households below this threshold suffer from structural energy poverty, which income transfers alone cannot cure. The model yields three sharp policy predictions: energy price shocks are strongly regressive, efficiency investments dominate income transfers and price subsidies in reducing energy poverty, and a cost-effective anti-poverty strategy must combine targeted retrofits with temporary income support. The results are illustrated with symbolic diagrams and formal proofs. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.24399 |
| By: | De Agostini Paola (European Commission - JRC); Trzcinski Kajetan (European Commission - JRC); Klenert David (European Commission - JRC); Amores Antonio F (European Commission - JRC); Pedauga Luis (European Commission - JRC); Weitzel Matthias (European Commission - JRC); Ferreira Valeria (European Commission - JRC); Garaffa Rafael (European Commission - JRC); Kreitmair Nicolas (European Commission - JRC); Pieralli Simone (European Commission - JRC); Arsov Spire (European Commission - JRC); Elleby Christian (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This note examines how a prolonged energy price shock following the conflict in the Middle East could affect EU households across the income distribution. It extends our previous analysis of the most recent inflation surge, which focused on the immediate effect of higher transport fuel prices (De Agostini et al., 2026), by considering the wider price pressures likely to emerge over the coming months as rising fuel costs pass through to electricity, heating, food, and other goods, particularly if oil and gas prices remain elevated beyond the official forecast. To do so, we bring together, for the first time, four models in a single framework: building on the scenarios of the European Commission Global Multicountry (GM) model, we translate its EU-wide estimates into detailed sectoral price changes using FIDELIO and JRC-GEM-E3 / AGLINK-COSIMO, and feed these price changes into EUROMOD to trace their effect on household budgets. The results show that the price shock is regressive: lower income households face higher price increases and devote a larger share of their income to the goods most affected, so the burden falls disproportionately on them, and more so the longer the shock persists. While the note presents results at population-weighted EU averages, it is important to notice that impacts at Member State level can differ significantly depending on national consumption and energy patterns. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc147531 |
| By: | Lisa Rennels; Frank Errickson; David Smith; Bryan Parthum; Klaus Keller; David Anthoff |
| Abstract: | Evaluating the economic impacts of climate policies is important for designing a response to climate change. One typical approach to assessing mitigation policy options uses integrated climate-economy models to analyze tradeoffs between the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of reducing climate damages. However, the uncertainty characterizing these models poses significant challenges for policymakers. We address this difficulty using a robust decision-making framework to evaluate mitigation policy. We show that a shift from a decision framework that maximizes expected outcomes to one that is averse to regret suggests more aggressive emissions reductions. Uncertainties about socioeconomic trajectories and the magnitude and functional form of climate damages create the asymmetric consequences of weak mitigation policy that encourage aggressive emissions reductions and precaution in the face of uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.07655 |
| By: | Carattini, Stefano; Huang, Hanwei; Pisch, Frank; Singh, Tejendra Pratap |
| Abstract: | Although the environmental impact of trade has been a long-standing concern, there is still only scant evidence on the channels through which international market access affects pollution. In this paper, we exploit the unique episode of China’s world market integration in the early 2000s to provide direct empirical evidence on three such mechanisms. We combine granular satellite data on air pollution with detailed information on manufacturing firms and coal power plants, and leverage exogenous foreign demand shocks for identification. Three main findings emerge: exporting firms reduce local pollution (scope-1); pollution levels around coal power plants rise due to regional export shocks (scope-2); and upstream suppliers reduce pollution in the face of export demand shocks to downstream firms (scope-3). Our findings point to China’s reliance on coal power plants to fuel its export-driven growth as one of the main drivers of the rise in pollution. |
| JEL: | D22 F18 F64 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20650 |
| By: | Vinish Shrestha (Department of Economics, Towson University) |
| Abstract: | This study identifies the causal environmental and health impacts of a decline in coal fired power plants' activities following a sharp drop in natural gas prices between 2008 and 2012. We develop a spatial framework — Spatial Buffer-Grid Smoothing (SBGS)---that identifies non-administrative exposure boundaries around CFPP clusters using machine-learning methods, capturing pollution diffusion beyond the plant level. We further refine exposure classification using prevailing wind direction to distinguish downwind (exposed) from upwind (unexposed) counties. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that PM2.5 concentrations in exposed counties declined by 0.237 μg/m3 annually during 2008--2012 and 0.206 μg/m3 during 2013–2016, relative to unexposed counties. Decomposing PM2.5 into its constituents reveals that sulfate, the component most directly linked to coal combustion, exhibited the largest decline. Correspondingly, age-adjusted mortality rates in exposed counties fell by 0.6 percent during 2008–2012 and 1.39 percent during 2013–2016, with effects growing over time. This pattern is consistent with cumulative health benefits from sustained improvements in air quality. The estimates are robust across specifications, distance thresholds, and alternative machine-learning classifiers. Convert- ing the estimated mortality reductions to a dollar value implies that the decline in coal-fired generation produced approximately 57.4 billion in health benefits between 2008 and 2016. |
| Keywords: | Coal externalities, Coal-fired power plants, Air pollution, PM2.5, Mortality, Spatial exposure, Value of a statistical life. |
| JEL: | I18 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tow:wpaper:2026-11 |
| By: | Santaro Sakata; Roberto Astolfi; Bram Edens; Suyeon Hwang |
| Abstract: | This working paper updates the existing OECD methodology for estimating Air Emission Accounts (AEAs) to enhance their comprehensiveness and international comparability. The new methodology draws primarily on data from national greenhouse gas emission inventories, a range of auxiliary data sources including Physical Energy Flow Accounts, as well as OECD experimental estimates of emissions from air and maritime transport. It improves the quality and granularity of estimates by economic activity (A*64 industry breakdown), expands the geographical coverage to all OECD countries, and extends the temporal scope of the estimates (1990 to year t-2). It also widens the emission coverage to include international air and maritime transport in line with emission boundaries of the System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA), and incorporates the territory–residence adjustments to comply with the SEEA Central Framework (SEEA-CF). These improvements complement ongoing international methodological efforts to refine AEA estimates, such as those developed by the IMF and Eurostat, by drawing more extensively on country-specific data and achieving closer alignment with the SEEA-CF. |
| JEL: | C82 Q53 Q54 Q56 E01 |
| Date: | 2026–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:stdaaa:2026/03-en |
| By: | Nicolás Forteza (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); José M. Labeaga (UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL DE EDUCACIÓN A DISTANCIA, SPAIN) |
| Abstract: | Low emission zones (LEZs) have emerged as a primary policy instrument to combat urban air pollution in Europe, yet rigorous evidence on their effectiveness and spatial spillovers remains limited. Using a high-resolution geospatial panel dataset covering 1km grid cells across 33 European countries from 2007 to 2022, we estimate that LEZ adoption reduces PM2.5 exposure by approximately 4% within designated zones. We find robust evidence of positive spillovers: pollution also declines in areas adjacent to LEZ boundaries. These average effects mask substantial heterogeneity: reductions are concentrated in larger, denser cities and in cities with medium-sized zones relative to total urban area, while the smallest cities and zones show no detectable effect. These findings suggest LEZs generate city-wide environmental benefits extending beyond formal boundaries, consistent with network effects and technology spillovers dominating displacement mechanisms. To contextualize these results, we estimate the pollution-density elasticity for European cities using instrumental variables based on historical settlement patterns, finding that a 1% increase in population density raises PM2.5 exposure by 6% (approximately half the magnitude documented for US cities). We interpret our findings through a spatial equilibrium model that formalizes how LEZs alter the pollution production function in monocentric cities. Our results indicate that moderate-stringency LEZs, as typically implemented across Europe, deliver meaningful aggregate pollution reductions of approximately 1.8% city-wide, with modal shift complementarities and fleet renewal mechanisms dominating traffic displacement effects. |
| Keywords: | low emission zones, air pollution, PM2.5, urban density |
| JEL: | I10 Q53 Q58 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2621 |
| By: | Felix Bierbrauer; Mattias Polborn; Marten Ritterrath; Georg Weizsäcker |
| Abstract: | We study the political economy of carbon taxes when neoclassical consumers take all other agents' emissions as given and socially responsible consumers internalize damages in a group-rule-utilitarian way, taking neoclassical consumers' behavior as given. We characterize political equilibrium taxes with a focus on deviations from first-best Pigouvian taxation. Welfare falls further if arguments on moral obligations to reduce carbon footprints polarize the debate in society. Finally, we present survey evidence that supports our theory: social responsibility correlates with lower consumption of brown goods, higher preferred carbon taxes, and support for moral arguments. |
| Keywords: | political economy of taxation, carbon taxes, ethical behavior |
| JEL: | C9 D11 D72 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12758 |
| By: | Bernad, Mariana; De Haas, Ralph; Rud, Juan Pablo |
| Abstract: | We document how banks' voluntary climate commitments predict both their green lending practices and their borrowers' environmental investments. Using structured surveys of 644 bank CEOs and heads of credit across 33 low- and middle-income countries, we develop indices of banks' green management and lending practices. These unique organizational data reveal that banks signing international climate initiatives (`talk') indeed exhibit stronger green practices (`walk') than non-signatories. We then merge our bank data with detailed surveys of 4, 719 firms and show that firms borrowing from climate-committed banks are more likely to undertake green investments. Exploiting geocoded bank branch and firm locations, we further find evidence of spatial matching: environmentally-oriented firms preferentially borrow from climate-committed banks in their vicinity. These patterns are consistent with voluntary climate commitments reflecting genuine environmental orientation rather than greenwashing. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Greenwashing; Green banks |
| JEL: | D22 G21 G32 O12 Q54 Q56 R51 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20640 |
| By: | Bombardini, Matilde; Finan, Frederico; Longuet-Marx, Nicolas; Naidu, Suresh; Trebbi, Francesco |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of climate change and mitigation-related employment changes on U.S. politics. We combine 2000-2020 precinct-level voting information and congressional candidate positions on environmental policy with high-resolution temperature, precipitation, and census block-group level measures of “green†and “brown†employment shares. Holding politician positions fixed within a district, we find that Democratic vote shares increase with exogenous changes in local climate and green transition employment. We embed these estimates into a model of political competition, including both direct and demand-driven effects of shocks on candidate supply of climate policy positions. Incorporating these estimates into 2022-2050 projections of climate change and green employment transition, we find that voting for the Democratic Party increases, while both parties move slightly to the right on climate policy. Under worst-case climate projections and current mitigation trajectories, our estimates indicate that the probability the House passes a carbon-pricing bill is 9 percentage points higher in 2050 than in 2020. |
| JEL: | P0 D72 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20578 |
| By: | Viet Nguyen-Tien |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of input uncertainty about critical minerals on firm performance, separating the second-moment risk channel from first-moment mineral sentiment and from general firm-level uncertainty. Using earnings-call transcripts matched to financial data for more than 14, 000 publicly listed firms in 92 countries (2010-2022), we construct text-based measures of perceived critical-mineral risk. Higher perceived risk is robustly associated with lower revenue growth among downstream non-mining firms, consistent with risk-averse firms contracting output under input uncertainty. A one-standard-deviation increase in mineral risk is associated with 0.71 percentage points lower revenue growth for the average non-mining firm, rising to roughly 1.9 percentage points for smaller firms, and is concentrated in thinly traded minerals (lithium, cobalt, rare earths) rather than deeply traded ones (copper, nickel). Firms discuss hedging an stockpiling in response to price volatility rather than price levels, revealing the risk aversion that underlies the output contraction. These findings highlight a new uncertainty channel in the green transition relevant to strategic stockpiling and price transparency. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals, green transition, risk, exposure, sentiment, stockpiling, hedging |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2197 |
| By: | Alice Albonico; Guido Ascari; Qazi Haque; Kostas Mavromatis; Andra Smadu |
| Abstract: | We develop and estimate an open economy DSGE model for the euro area where global energy prices and the exchange rate jointly determine domestic inflation, because imported energy, priced in foreign currency, enters both consumption and production. Energy and exchange-rate disturbances account for the bulk of short-run volatility in headline euro area inflation, with energy price shocks driving most of the post-pandemic surge. Because energy and non-energy goods are poor substitutes, an adverse energy price shock raises import values, deteriorating the trade balance and depreciating the real exchange rate through the net-foreign-asset and UIP channels. The exchange-rate channel strengthens monetary transmission and improves the short-run inflation-output trade-off relative to a non-energy economy. Optimal policy can exploit this channel rather than looking through energy price shocks. The case for looking through such shocks becomes stronger when the central bank assigns a greater weight to output gap stabilization and prices become stickier. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, inflation, energy, Bayesian estimation |
| JEL: | E52 E31 E32 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-55 |
| By: | Amrita Goldar (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Bishwanath Goldar; Kumar Abhishe; Sunishtha Yadav; Poulomi Bhattacharya |
| Abstract: | The present study is undertaken by applying the ICRIER Samriddhi Model (GTAP-E based), which evaluates the impact of the imposition of CBAM on India's steel exports, thus indicating a pathway India should adopt if the EU imposes a carbon border tax. The study results indicate that CBAM is likely to significantly impact India's steel exports to the EU, causing a fall in India's steel exports to the EU by 24 per cent. The paper also gauges whether the imposition of CBAM would lead to a significant reduction in carbon emissions and finds that a reduction of 1 per cent in aggregate emissions will occur in the global steel industry. |
| Keywords: | CBAM, International trade, Industrial decarbonization, Steel exports |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:wpaper:433 |
| By: | Oehmke, Martin; Opp, Marcus |
| Abstract: | We study bank capital requirements as a tool to address climate-related financial risks and evaluate whether a prudential mandate for bank regulators remains appropriate in the presence of carbon externalities. We show that a prudential mandate maximizes welfare if carbon taxes are set optimally and fully characterize optimal capital requirements under such a mandate. Optimal transition-risk adjustments can crowd out clean lending. When carbon pricing is insufficient, using capital requirements to address externalities can require sacrificing financial stability or prove altogether ineffective. Capital requirements can play an indirect role by mitigating stranded asset risk, thereby making future carbon taxes credible. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20437 |
| By: | Dawn Chinagorom-Abiakalam; Fernando Leibovici |
| Abstract: | Oil-price shocks are also fuel- and shipping-cost shocks, but their effect can vary depending on a container ship’s age, size and how long it spends at sea. |
| Keywords: | oil prices; oil shocks; shipping costs; container ships |
| Date: | 2026–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:103563 |
| By: | Louis Boisgibault (ENeC - Espaces, Nature et Culture - UP4 - Université Paris-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | An important interface between southern Tunisia and the Mediterranean, the port area of Sfax consists of a historic fishing port an artificial commercial port. The creation of the commercial port dates back to the government of the French protectorate, at the end of the 19th century, and allowed the city of Sfax, the second largest Tunisian urban agglomeration, to strengthen its regional economic role. With a traffic volume of 4 648 740 tonnes mainly inbound in 2022, it is the 3rd Tunisian port in tonnage. It does not stand out in the rankings as a major port in Africa, unlike Tanger Med in Morocco, whose growth has been spectacular over the last 15 years. The Sfax commercial port is versatile, as it deals with liquid and solid bulk and containerized goods. For passenger traffic, Sfax is the pier for ferries to the Kerkennah Islands. The authorities are faced with increasing illegal migration to Europe, generating disorder and tragedy. For a long time, the economic imperatives of international trade and fishing overshadowed the adjacent pollution and the poor carbon footprint of this area, which adjoins the city center. The port area is threatened by risks, in particular poor waste management, pollution, toxic emissions, rising water levels, storms, lack of drinking water, and global warming with its excessive heat. In a gloomy scenario, this metropolis of nearly 300, 000 inhabitants could be deserted by 2100, human life becoming too difficult there. Experts are calling for decontamination of the port, decarbonization of its activities, and better adaptation to this warming while limiting the artificialization of the coastline. But these major, highly studied sustainable modernization projects are struggling to materialize due to political instability, economic difficulties since the 2011 revolution, and lack of funding. They must accelerate today by following objectives consistent with the best international standards to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050. |
| Abstract: | Interface importante entre la Tunisie du Sud et la Méditerranée, la zone portuaire de Sfax se compose d'un port de pêche historique et d'un port de commerce artificiel. La création du port de commerce remonte au gouvernement du protectorat français, à la fin du XIXe siècle, et a permis à la ville de Sfax, deuxième agglomération urbaine tunisienne, de renforcer son rôle économique régional. Avec un volume de trafic de 4 648 740 tonnes principalement en entrée en 2022, c'est le troisième port commercial tunisien en tonnage. Il ne s'impose pas dans les classements comme un port majeur d'Afrique, contrairement à Tanger Med au Maroc dont l'essor a été spectaculaire ces 15 dernières années. Le port de commerce de Sfax est polyvalent, car il traite du vrac liquide, solide et de marchandises conteneurisées. Pour le trafic de passagers, Sfax est l'embarcadère pour les ferrys vers les îles Kerkennah. Les autorités sont aussi confrontées à une migration illégale croissante vers l'Europe, génératrice de désordres et de tragédies. Longtemps, les impératifs, économiques du commerce international et de la pêche ont occulté les pollutions adjacentes et la mauvaise empreinte carbone de cette zone qui jouxte le centre-ville. La zone portuaire est menacée par des risques, en particulier la mauvaise gestion des déchets, les pollutions, les émissions toxiques, la montée des eaux, les tempêtes, le manque d'eau potable, le réchauffement climatique avec sa chaleur excessive. Dans un scénario sombre, cette métropole de près de 300 000 habitants pourrait être désertée à l'horizon 2100, la vie humaine y devenant trop difficile. Des experts appellent à une dépollution du port, à une décarbonisation de ses activités et à une meilleure adaptation à ce réchauffement, tout en limitant l'artificialisation du littoral. Mais ces grands projets de modernisation durable très étudiés peinent à se concrétiser en raison de l'instabilité politique, des difficultés économiques depuis la révolution de 2011 et du manque de financements. Ils doivent accélérer aujourd'hui, en suivant des objectifs conformes aux meilleurs standards internationaux pour atteindre la neutralité carbone en 2050. |
| Keywords: | bulk, Sfax, Tunisia, energy transition, port, container, pollution, CO2, energy, maritime traffic, conteneur, vrac, trafic maritime, énergie, Tunisie, transition énergétique |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05657291 |
| By: | Jamasb, T.; Sikow-Magny, C. |
| Abstract: | Cross-border interconnection (IC) projects are central to achieving the European Union's goals of energy market integration, system resilience, and security of supply. However, their implementation often encounters financial and policy challenges stemming from uneven distribution of costs and benefits across the countries and exacerbated jurisdictional differences and information asymmetry. This paper proposes an approach that reorients the current framework and practice of cross-border cost allocation (CBC A) policy to one that embeds economic theory that informs the project assessment and negotiation process. We present a conceptual framework that integrates bargaining theory and incentive design into the CBCA. It considers the joint interests of project promoters, National Regulatory Authorities (NRAs), and the European Commission (EC) when assessing investments and co -funding from the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF). A new role for CEF, not as an ex -post subsidy, but as a directed policy instrument enables elicitation of true values of benefits and incentive-compatible cost allocation that aligns national and EU objectives. We conclude with policy recommendations for enabling implementation of cross -border investments in the EU’s evolving energy grid policy. |
| Keywords: | Electricity Grid, Cross-Border Investment, Cost Allocation, Information Asymmetry, Energy Policy |
| JEL: | C70 D00 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026–07–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2649 |
| By: | Thabit Atobishi; Saeed Nosratabadi |
| Abstract: | The healthcare sector contributes approximately 4.4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet research on the organizational determinants of sustainable behaviors among healthcare workers remains limited. This study examines how green transformational leadership and ethical climate influence sustainable clinical behaviors among registered nurses, with green psychological climate as a mediator and perceived organizational hypocrisy as a moderator. Data were collected from 760 nurses across 11 public and private hospitals in Jordan using a cross-sectional survey design. Structural equation modeling with bootstrapping was employed to test the hypothesized relationships. The results revealed that both green transformational leadership and ethical climate positively predicted sustainable clinical behaviors. Green psychological climate partially mediated both relationships. Perceived organizational hypocrisy significantly weakened the positive effects of green transformational leadership and ethical climate on sustainable behaviors. The model explained 35.7% of the variance in sustainable clinical behaviors. These findings highlight that fostering sustainability in healthcare requires not only supportive leadership and ethical organizational environments but also authenticity and consistency between stated values and actual practices. The study extends green transformational leadership theory to healthcare settings, integrates ethical climate research with environmental sustainability, and introduces perceived organizational hypocrisy as a critical boundary condition. Practical implications for healthcare administrators seeking to reduce their environmental footprint are discussed. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.29056 |
| By: | Christoph Böhringer; Bengt Kriström |
| Abstract: | In light of sharply rising international electricity prices, Sweden as a major electricity-exporting country has considered export restrictions to protect its domestic electricity- and export-intensive industries. We employ a computable general equilibrium model calibrated to Swedish data to quantify the economy-wide impacts of export restrictions. We find that while export restrictions may protect domestic electricity- and export-intensive industries, they lead to substantial foregone export revenues and overall welfare losses. Targeted subsidies to employment or output in these industries, on the other hand, can achieve identical protective effects as export restrictions while preserving most of the gains from trade. The analysis also highlights the distributional consequences of electricity price increases, underscoring the need for policymakers to consider potential equity implications. |
| Keywords: | electricity price shocks, export restrictions, subsidies, computable general equilibrium analysis |
| JEL: | Q48 D58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12765 |
| By: | JŽr™me Pivard (Paris-Saclay Applied Economics); Vincent Martinet (Paris-Saclay Apllied Economics) |
| Abstract: | We explore the interplay between two key individual drivers of green consumption: intrinsic moral concerns for the environment and reputational concerns for social image. Our microeconomic behavioral model characterizes choices among lifestyles differing in environmental impacts (brown/green) and conspicuousness (positional/discreet), depending on how strongly one values each of these motives. We show that image concerns can substitute for environmental concerns in driving green consumption across a limited but central range of preferences, in particular through the purchase of green positional goods. Such conspicuous conservation can green individual consumption (reconciling Eco and Ego), especially among image-sensitive consumers, but it yields environmental benefits only under specific economic conditions. Indeed, the environmental impact of a lifestyle depends critically on its relative impact intensity, i.e., the pollution per dollar spent on this lifestyle, more than on the pollution per unit of the representative good of the lifestyle, driving volume effects and behavioral rebound effects, which both reduce the environmental benefits of green lifestyles. Knowing the collective distribution of preferences may help design targeted policies, as those preferences strongly determine policy effectiveness. Our findings are especially relevant for policies that aim to foster greener consumption choices in different economic contexts (e.g., green nudging, environmental taxes with higher rates on positional goodsÉ). |
| Keywords: | Green consumption, Conspicuous conservation, Moral consistency, Environmental Concern, Image concern |
| JEL: | D01 D11 D62 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2026.02 |
| By: | Gazzè, Ludovica; Gupta, Tanu; Huang, Allen; Londono, Valentina; Saavedra, Santiago; Toma, Mattie |
| Abstract: | There is limited evidence on the non-health impacts of air pollution, including productivity in the workplace and behavior. We examine the effect of air pollution on participation, collaboration, and feedback provision in a workplace setting. Our experiment randomly assigns air purifiers to rooms at three large academic conferences to investigate the causal impact of air pollution on participants' engagement behavior. We construct a participant engagement index based on 12 presentation-level behavioral outcomes directly measured by conference observers through an online form and weigh each behavioral outcome using weights elicited from an expert survey. Conference rooms treated with air purifiers exhibit 48% less PM2.5 concentration compared to control rooms. However, we do not find a statistically significant change in engagement. Communication in the workplace might not be a large driver of the empirical relationship between air quality and productivity, albeit more research is needed across workplaces and measures of communication. |
| Keywords: | Engagement; Field experiment |
| JEL: | Q53 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20676 |
| By: | Marianna Epicoco |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the relationship between climate change, technological change and affluence. Our expected contribution is to provide a deeper conceptualization of technological change, while taking into account ecological limits, justice and democratic concerns. To this end, we analyze and try to combine evolutionary theories of long-run economic development and limits-to-growth theories, i.e., post-growth and degrowth. We suggest that technological change, even if directed by government policies in the “right directions”, is unlikely to rapidly reduce global emissions. Hence, a significant reduction in global affluence is as necessary as a faster low-carbon transition in order to limit climate change, stay within ecological limits and achieve a more just transition. We also suggest that the lowcarbon transition can be conceptualized as an ecological technological revolution, which can originate a new phase of economic development through major qualitative changes of socio-economic systems in dominant technologies, sectors, firms, institutions and societal values. Finally, we propose that a cap on affluence can be conceptualized as a technology cap, which can accelerate and shape a lowcarbon transition by activating two processes. The first is an endogenous process of co-evolution or cumulative causation between minimalist demand and investment in ecological technologies. The second is a process of debate and democratic definition of an ecological technological paradigm, which can enable socio-institutional actors to act as exogenous unlocking factors. Both these processes, and the forces that shape them, should enable the qualitative evolution of socio-economic systems towards ecology, without necessarily produce their quantitative growth. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Technological revolutions; Affluence; Long-run economic development; Ecological technological revolution; Technology cap. |
| JEL: | Q50 O33 O11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-24 |
| By: | Antonin Pottier (EHESS); Emmanuel Combet (ADEME); Simona de Lauretis (EDF Ð CIRED) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the differential contributions of men and women to consumption- based emissions. The effect of gender on GHG emissions is difficult to assess because it correlates with other determinants, such as income and the size and composition of household that people are part of. We review the scant evidence available in the literature, with equivocal results. Using consumption-based emissions of French households, we show that pooling households of different size and composition cannot provide reliable estimates of the effect of gender of the head of household on emissions. Our empirical strategy therefore focuses on one-person households. With multi-variate regressions, we find that, other things being equal, there is no significant difference between single men and women, provided they are younger than 80. Women over 80 years old emit less than their male counterparts, a difference which can be traced back to their very low usage of car. |
| Keywords: | inequality, GHG emissions, carbon footprint, gender, households, income and expenditure survey |
| JEL: | D12 D14 D30 D31 J16 Q56 R20 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2025.09 |
| By: | Vosooghi, Sareh; Arvaniti, Maria; van der Ploeg, Frederick |
| Abstract: | We study the formation of international climate coalitions with sophisticated policy makers. They strategically predict the consequences of their membership decisions in climate negotiations and use an integrated assessment model of the economy and the climate in their decision making. We analytically characterise the equilibrium number of coalitions and their number of signatories with certain types of heterogeneity. The special structure of our model drastically reduces the computational complexity of coalition formation with heterogeneous countries. We also investigate numerically possible coalition outcomes for a calibrated model with an exhaustible and inexhaustible energy sector. In contrast to earlier approaches to coalition formation based on internal and external stability, much larger coalitions can be sustained in equilibrium alongside smaller ones. Sophisticated policy makers thus give rise to more mitigation of global warming. |
| JEL: | C72 Q43 Q54 D70 D58 E27 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20407 |
| By: | Joshua Greubel; Fabian Herweg |
| Abstract: | We study polluting firms that require loans from a monopolistic bank to invest in abatement technology. Firms differ in the effectiveness of abatement investment, and this effectiveness is private information. The bank offers a screening contract under which high-cost firms receive too little capital and therefore emit excessively. A regulator restricted to tax policy responds by setting an environmental tax above marginal environmental damage, i.e., above the Pigouvian level. The first-best allocation can be restored by combining the Pigouvian tax, which ensures efficient abatement, with tailored, type-specific loan subsidies that correct the credit-market distortion. |
| Keywords: | abatement investment, asymmetric information, environmental taxation, financial frictions, screening |
| JEL: | D82 G21 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12828 |
| By: | Xun Li; Maryam Vaziri |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the firm-level impact of state aid in France from 2016–23 and how targeting affects economic outcomes. Using firm-level data and a difference-in-differences approach, we find that aid is most effective for young firms, improving real outcomes while also crowding in private debt financing. Size-based targeting, by contrast, has limited impact. R&D support is particularly effective for young firms in high-tech sectors, and energy aid has the strongest effects in manufacturing, pointing to its potential role in helping firms reduce emissions and facilitating the green transition. |
| Keywords: | Industrial policy; firm performance; state aid |
| Date: | 2026–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/122 |
| By: | Hardt, Johanna-Sophia; Hoppe-Wewetzer, Heidrun C.; Klapper, Felix |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the impact of emissions standards on a firm’s output and abatement R&D investment decisions in a duopoly model, extending the work of Amir et al. (2023). It is shown that high upper limits on total emissions remove the firms’ incentives to invest in abatement R&D. This helps firms to coordinate on profit-increasing output levels relative to unregulated markets. Moreover, subsidies for abatement R&D may hurt firms, but improve welfare when the regulation is strict enough. |
| Keywords: | Environmental regulation; Cournot |
| JEL: | L13 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20341 |
| By: | Lint Barrage (Chair of Energy and Climate Economics, ETH Zurich); Gustav Fredriksson (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | What drives voter decisions on carbon pricing? Analyzing Switzerland's 2021 CO2 Act referendum, this paper finds that support was substantially higher in municipalities experiencing unusually warm weather during the voting period. This effect is most robust relative to a recent temperature baseline, consistent with a 'frog in hot water' effect. Opposition was stronger in areas with higher correlates of policy costs, such as car ownership and manufacturing employment. Evidence on long‐run temperature trends is mixed. These findings suggest that future weather anomalies may increase electoral support for carbon pricing. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Pricing Support, Referendum, Temperature Anomalies, Climate Change |
| JEL: | Q4 D7 H2 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1326 |
| By: | Känzig, Diego; Konradt, Maximilian; Wang, Lixing; Zhang, Donghai |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between green innovation and the business cycle, revealing that while non-green innovation is procyclical, green innovation is countercyclical. This pattern holds unconditionally over the business cycle and conditional on economic shocks. Motivated by these findings, we develop a business cycle model with endogenous green and non-green innovation to explain their distinct cyclical behavior. The key mechanism operates through a ‘green is in the future’ channel: green patents are expected to generate higher profits in the future, making green patenting less sensitive to short-term economic fluctuations. In general equilibrium, this channel is reinforced, making green and non-green innovation effective substitutes. We provide direct evidence supporting the model mechanism using data on market-implied values of green and non-green patents. |
| Keywords: | Green innovation |
| JEL: | E32 O31 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20475 |
| By: | Walsh, Christoph; Zhang, Jiekai |
| Abstract: | We develop a structural model of demand and pricing of vehicles which incorporates the heterogeneous effects of advertising. We estimate the model using rich data on sales and advertising at the age-group and product level from 2012-2021 in France. We disentangle the positive spillover effects of advertising from its business-stealing effects and find that advertising has a positive effect on vehicle sales and reduces consumers' price sensitivity. Our counterfactual simulations show that an outright ban on advertising does not lead to positive environmental effects. Instead, targeted advertising bans on high-emission and high-weight vehicles are more effective at reducing emissions. |
| Keywords: | Advertising; Vehicles |
| JEL: | L13 L51 Q51 M37 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20393 |
| By: | Lieberman, Joey; Hardman, Scott; Nordhoff, Sina |
| Abstract: | This research brief explores factors influencing consumers decision to buy an electric vehicle (EV). The brief also explores what areas of the EV ecosystem EV owners think need improvement. Results come from interviews conducted with EV owners across the US. Following the interviews transcripts were thematically coded to extract common themes. Overall, we find consumers decisions to purchase an EV are influenced by functional or economic factors, such as refueling cost or purchase price. Emotional factors in the form of environmentalism played a role, but less so than previous studies. Desired improvements to EVs were mostly related to charging infrastructure, including improvements to infrastructure availability, charging speed, reliability, and other issues. Improvements to driving range were also desired. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5c67w666 |
| By: | Broer, Tobias; Kramer, John; Mitman, Kurt |
| Abstract: | Negative oil supply shocks since the 1980s have increased German inflation and reduced aggregate economic activity, and prompted moderate monetary tightening to counter these inflationary effects. Using 45 years of high-frequency German administrative data, we find that these shocks disproportionally harm low-income individuals: their earnings growth falls by two percentage points two years after a 10-percent exogenous oil price rise, while high-income individuals are largely unaffected. Job-finding probabilities for low-income workers also decline significantly. This contrasts with the distributional effects of monetary policy shocks, which, while also stronger at the bottom, primarily impact job-separation probabilities. To understand the role of monetary policy in shaping these outcomes, we analyze counterfactual scenarios of policy non-response. Because the actual policy response to oil shocks involves an initial rate rise followed by a fall, a fully anticipated non-response (estimated following McKay and Wolf, 2023) leaves the oil shock’s aggregate and distributional effects little changed. When monetary policy repeatedly surprises by not reacting (following Sims and Zha, 2006), in contrast, the implied initial monetary loosening dominates, boosting activity, inflation, and particularly employment prospects for low-income individuals. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Labor markets; Distributional effects; Oil shocks |
| JEL: | D31 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20345 |
| By: | Ciccolini Giuseppe (European Commission - JRC); Joossens Elisabeth (European Commission - JRC); Le Blanc Julia (European Commission - JRC); Pasqualino Roberto (European Commission - JRC); Sanye Mengual Esther (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This Science-for-Policy brief examines how the consumption footprint of EU households varies across income groups. Drawing on novel microdata combining EU Household Budget Survey expenditure data with product-level impact factors from the JRC Consumption Footprint, the analysis covers 16 environmental impact categories and includes the footprint of imported goods. The richest 20% of EU households account for over 25% of the total consumption footprint — a quarter more than an equal distribution would imply — while the poorest 20% account for less than 15%. The gap is sharpest for mobility, where the richest generate around three times the footprint of the poorest. Even lower-income households exceed planetary boundaries, though they transgress fewer and by smaller margins. When consumption footprints are expressed in monetary terms, the richest 20% generate around 8 000 euro per household per year in unpaid environmental damage — nearly twice the 4 500 euro generated by the poorest. As a share of expenditure, however, this unpaid damage is proportionally larger for lower-income households. The brief argues that a fair green transition requires a dual policy approach: consumption shifts for affluent households, and systemic change — cleaner energy, sustainable food systems, accessible infrastructure — for lower-income ones. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc146384 |
| By: | Kwok, Tsz Chun; Spiro, Daniel; van Benthem, Arthur |
| Abstract: | We provide a theoretical micro foundation for how much pollution (negative externalities) a firm will internalize based on the ownership distribution of its shareholders. Small shareholders, compared to large ones, want the firm to spend more on avoiding pollution since they suffer less profit loss for the same environmental benefit. In particular, if a shareholder holds a share of 1/N, where N is the population in society, that shareholder's preferences align with a social planner's. Three theoretical predictions arise. First, small shareholders will systematically vote for a greener corporate profile. Second, firms with a smaller weighted median shareholder will pollute less. Third, countries with concentrated corporate wealth holdings and/or more individualized firm ownership pollute more. This implies that standard models of externalities in environmental economics and macroeconomics containing representative agents are either internally inconsistent or not fully specified. |
| JEL: | Q50 Q52 G32 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20595 |
| By: | Pollitt, M. G. |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the use of electricity distribution benchmarking within incentive regulation as part of price control reviews. It compares different methods, with an emphasis on efficiency benchmarking. We consider the choices facing the regulator in selecting a benchmarking method and in implementing it and how these may evolve over time. We contrast the experiences of regulators in Great Britain, the Netherlands and Germany in doing benchmarking within price control reviews and offer some lessons for the future. We suggest that benchmarking should be expected to evolve over time and that regulators should consider a 'benchmarking of benchmarking' with respect to their currently preferred benchmarking methods. |
| Keywords: | DEA, SFA, COLS, Frontier, Efficiency, Benchmarking |
| JEL: | L94 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2647 |
| By: | Jiao, Peiran; Koedijk, Kees; Xu, Yilong |
| Abstract: | Sustainability preferences are often measured at the individual level. However, it is unclear whether individual sustainability preferences can manifest in a competitive asset market setting. To address this, we conduct a series of experiments, measuring sustainability preferences at both thei ndividual and market levels. In our market experiments, participants could accept lower payoffs for assets that yield positive externalities (green) compared to those with neutral (gray) or negative (brown) externalities. We observe a robust aversion to brown assets leading to significant underpricing (a “brown discount†), but find little evidence of a green premium. When we eliminate speculative motives, green assets’ prices are even closer to the fundamental value, suggesting that any observed green premium is likely driven by speculation but not sustainability preferences. Only incentivized measures of individual sustainability preferences, rather than stated preferences, significantly correlate with participants’ market behavior. |
| Keywords: | Sustainability preference; Experimental asset markets; Green premium; Brown discount; Impact investment |
| JEL: | C92 D81 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20646 |
| By: | Alvarez, Jorge; Benatiya Andaloussi, Mehdi; Maggi, Chiara; Sollaci, Alexandre; Stuermer, Martin; Topalova, Petia |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the economic impact of commodity trade fragmentation. Using a novel production and trade dataset of 48 key commodities, we develop a partial equilibrium framework to identify the most vulnerable commodities to trade disruptions and assess the ensuing economic risks. Trade fragmentation can cause large price changes for many commodities, with minerals critical for the clean energy transition and selected agricultural commodities being the most vulnerable. The economic relevance of commodity trade fragmentation, measured by changes in consumer and producer surplus, varies across countries. However, offsetting effects across commodity exporting and importing countries, imply modest global surplus losses. |
| Keywords: | Commodities |
| JEL: | F11 F12 F14 F15 F17 F41 F42 F43 Q17 Q27 Q37 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20451 |
| By: | Nicolas Stevens; Peter Cramton; Martial Toniotti |
| Abstract: | In non-convex markets, a competitive equilibrium may fail to exist. This turns out to be an important issue in real-world non-convex auction markets, such as electricity markets, as it complicates pricing and requires the auctioneer to resort to out-of-market discriminatory side payments to sustain an equilibrium. We investigate whether the introduction of convex financial trading induces a smoothing effect, mitigating the issues arising from non-convexities. We develop a two-stage non-convex market model (a forward market followed by a spot market) in which convex financial traders participate in the forward market. Our model predicts that financial trading reduces the magnitude of side payments required to support the cleared allocation. To test the prediction of our model, we examine the introduction of a transaction fee on financial traders in 2020 by PJM, the US's largest electricity market. We show that the substantial decline in financial trading volume caused by this policy coincided with a significant increase in side payments, in line with our theoretical predictions. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.06316 |
| By: | Chaurey, Ritam; Nayyar, Gaurav; Sharma, Siddharth; Verhoogen, Eric |
| Abstract: | Knowledge spillovers among firms are widely viewed as a key driver of agglomeration and growth, but are difficult to estimate cleanly. We randomly allocated an energy-efficient motor — a “servo'†motor — among leather-goods firms in Dhaka, Bangladesh, and tracked adoption, information flows, beliefs about energy savings, and other variables. We use the difference between actual exposure and expected exposure (from simulated randomization draws) to identify the effect of exposure. We find a robust positive effect of exposure to treated neighbors within a small geographic area (500 meters in our baseline specification) on information flows and adoption. A marginal value of public funds (MVPF) calculation taking learning spillovers into account yields a significantly larger value than one considering only treated firms and suggests that adoption subsidies would be a cost-effective policy intervention. |
| JEL: | O14 R11 L67 L23 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20713 |
| By: | Marine Kohler (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay); Natalia Costa I Coromina (Energy Impact Partners); Pascal da Costa (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay); Peter Fox Penner (Energy Impact Partners); François Cluzel (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay) |
| Abstract: | In a context of insufficient global regulation, a substantial proportion of firms set voluntary greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets. This study draws on a new dataset of about 1, 000 GHG Protocol-compliant assessments from a thousand Europe and US-based small and medium enterprises and mid-sized firms between 2019 and 2024 to investigate how emissions metrics compare across as companies grow and consolidate their productivity. Moving beyond the conflicting environmental Kuznets curve evidence and the traditional focus on large enterprises, we uncover a new, untheorized link between emissions and firm productivity. Using competing polynomial and threshold regression models, and addressing endogeneity, selection bias and omitted variable bias by relying on Granger causality, Hausman instruments, poststratification, Oster sensitivity tests and split sample testing, we establish that contrary to the classic inverted U shape of the EKC, corporate emissions and emissions intensities do not show a clear turning point but instead stabilize once over a critical threshold in revenue per employee. We find raising productivity can halve per revenue intensities despite simultaneous fourfold and twofold surges in absolute and per-employee emissions. This structural influence of financial productivity challenges the fairness of corporate net-zero targets that assume comparable baseline intensities across firms. |
| Keywords: | Corporate Net-Zero targets, Threshold approach, Environmental Kuznets curve, Corporate climate performance |
| Date: | 2026–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05170003 |
| By: | Edcleutson de Souza Silva (Federal University of Paraíba); André Luis Squarize Chagas (Department of Economics, University of São Paulo); Carlos Roberto Azzoni (Department of Economics, University of São Paulo); Aléssio Tony Cavalcanti de Almeida (Federal University of Paraíba); Wallace Patrick Santos de Farias Souza (Federal University of Paraíba) |
| Abstract: | Wind power deployment is often framed as a source of regional job creation, but its local economic incidence may be sectorally uneven and spatially dispersed. This paper estimates the effects of wind farm expansion on formal labor markets in North eastern Brazil from 2004 to 2019. Using an annual panel of 1, 478 municipalities and a spatial difference-in-differences design, we estimate direct effects on host municipalities and spillover effects on nearby municipalities across industry, commerce and services, and agriculture. The results indicate a pattern of sectoral reallocation rather than broad-based employment growth. Host municipalities experience large short-run gains in industrial employment and establishment counts, while agricultural employment declines, with the strongest evidence in the short run and persistent negative point estimates at longer horizons. Neighboring municipalities also exhibit negative labor market spillovers, especially in industrial wages and wage bills and in short-run agricultural employment and wage bills. Exploratory analyses suggest more negative point estimates in inland municipalities and among low-skilled agricultural workers, although these results are based on smaller effective samples. The findings show that wind farms operate not only as energy-capacity investments, but also as spatially targeted infrastructure shocks with uneven distributive effects across sectors, workers, and municipalities. They also underscore the importance of accounting for spatial spillovers when designing quasi-experimental evaluations of renewable energy infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | wind power deployment; renewable energy infrastructure; local labor markets; spatial spillovers; difference-in-differences; just transition |
| JEL: | Q42 Q43 R11 R23 J21 C23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:023114 |
| By: | Prema-chandra Athukorala; Archanun Kohpaiboon |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the growth trajectory and current state of Thailand’s automotive hub—often dubbed the "Detroit of the East"—and the adjustment challenges it faces in transitioning from the combustion engine era to the electric vehicle era. The findings suggest that Thailand’s success has been driven by a combination of structural changes in the global automotive industry, which opened opportunities for peripheral countries to join production networks, and the pragmatic, market-oriented policy approach of Thai authorities, which made the country an attractive location for international production. Despite this impressive performance during the combustion engine era, Thailand's automotive sector is now undergoing significant structural adjustments due to the rise of electric vehicles. Whether Thailand can continue to function as a global automobile hub under the emerging dominance of Chinese BEV manufacturers remains uncertain. Even under the optimistic scenario of vehicle assembly continues to expand in Thailand under Chinese dominance, the parts and components segment—which accounts for the bulk of employment in the industry—is likely to face a substantial contraction in the BEV era. This gloomy prospect underscores the need for a reorientation of industrial and labour market policies, including targeted support for supplier upgrading, workforce reskilling, and the development of complementary manufacturing and services capabilities to mitigate employment losses. |
| Keywords: | Thailand, automobiles, battery electrical vehicles (BEVs), combustion engine vehicles (ICEs), industrialisation, globalisation |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F23 L16 O19 O25 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pas:papers:2026-03 |
| By: | Praveen Kumar Ashok Kumar; Rafa{\l} Sieradzki |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the Aggregate Confusion hypothesis (Berg, Kolbel, and Rigobon, 2022) at the firm level by measuring the Disclosure-Performance Gap (DPG), the standardised divergence between a firm's voluntary environmental disclosure ("Talk") and its realised emissions performance ("Walk"). The sample comprises 200 large European firms from the Energy, Materials, Industrials, and Utilities sectors of the STOXX Europe 600 in fiscal year 2023, the final cross-section of the voluntary reporting era before the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive. The model is selected through a six-stage process, candidate assembly, correlation screening, VIF based multicollinearity filtering, stepwise forward search under the corrected Akaike Information Criterion, Cook's distance screening, and HC3 re-estimation across 421 candidate specifications, estimated by ordinary least squares with HC3 robust standard errors on the full sample. Flagship index membership is the strongest predictor of a wider gap ($\beta$ = +0.78, p |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.31469 |
| By: | Andrea De Polis (Banco de España); Álvaro Fernández-Gallardo (Banco de España); José Nicolás Rosas (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the asymmetric transmission of oil supply news shocks to the inflation distribution in the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom. Using quantile local projections and high-frequency identification, we document a stark asymmetry across these three large advanced economies: while median responses are transitory, the 90th quantile exhibits significant and persistent increases beyond one year. This upside tail sensitivity, consistent with state-dependent pricing, suggests that supply shocks are structural innovations to the skewness of the inflation distribution. Monetary policy should actively monitor such persistent inflation tail risks to keep expectations anchored. |
| Keywords: | oil supply shocks, inflation at risk, quantile local projections, non-linearities, state-dependence |
| JEL: | E31 E52 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2622 |
| By: | Goodhart, Charles; Vu, Ly Hoang |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates determinants of firm’s climate change mitigation and examines how such actions relate to both perceived and actual access to finance. Using a cross-country dataset with continental disaggregation from the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey Round VI of the EBRD and World Bank Enterprise Surveys, we have a sample of 59, 846 enterprises across 68 countries during 2018 – 2025. We then analyse two key mitigation measures (energy management and CO₂ monitoring) across multiple econometric specifications. The results reveal significant gender differences: female ownership is positively associated with adopting mitigation measures and securing credit, while female top managers are less likely to engage in mitigation or obtain finance. Macroeconomic conditions exert nuanced influences: higher average GDP levels over the past five years are generally linked to greater mitigation adoption, whereas longer-term GDP effects are weaker. Inflation (both short-term and long-term averages) emerges as a consistent barrier to climate action. Our study also identifies a finance access paradox: mitigation measures improve actual credit access but do not consistently enhance perceived ease of finance, and CO₂ monitoring can even reduce perceived access. Furthermore, mitigation actions show a stronger and more robust link to actual than perceived finance, suggesting that lenders reward climate-positive behaviour more than firms recognise. Continental sensitivity analyses confirm that effect magnitudes and directions vary across Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia, Latin America, and Africa and MENA. |
| Keywords: | Access to finance; Gender |
| JEL: | G21 L14 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20645 |
| By: | Arteaga-Garavito, María José; Colacito, Ric; Croce, Mariano; Yang, Biao |
| Abstract: | We develop novel high-frequency indices that measure climate attention across a wide range of developed and emerging economies. By analyzing the text of over 23 million Tweets published by leading national newspapers, we find that a country experiencing more severe climate news shocks tends to see both an inflow of capital and an appreciation of its currency. In addition, brown stocks experience large and persistent negative returns after a global climate news shock if located in highly exposed countries. A risk-sharing model in which investors price climate news shocks and trade consumption and investment goods in global markets rationalizes these findings. |
| Keywords: | Trade; Currencies |
| JEL: | F3 F4 G1 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20607 |
| By: | Yu (Jasmine); Hao; Jinge Li |
| Abstract: | China's electric-vehicle (EV) sales share rose from about 1% in 2015 to roughly 45% in 2024. We evaluate this technology transition with an equilibrium differentiated-products model of the Chinese auto market, and quantify both its attribution and its welfare and reallocation consequences. Every yuan of 2024 EV subsidy delivered about 3.38 yuan of private surplus, but this surplus accrued asymmetrically. Per-capita consumer-surplus loss from subsidy removal is about five times larger in Tier 1 than in the Rest tier; about half of the aggregate welfare loss operates through indirect Wright's-law learning rather than the direct cash transfer; and EV-native firms (BYD, Tesla, New Forces) retain 16-27% of their 2024 EV business under subsidy removal while traditional state-owned manufacturers retain only 11%. A Shapley decomposition into six channels -- Quality, Variety, Battery, Subsidy, Residual, and Market -- attributes the historical 2015-2024 rise primarily to product-quality gains (+45.49%), choice-set expansion (+14.81%), and battery-cost decline (+8.20%). The Subsidy block is negative (-13.63%) because direct purchase subsidies were phased down, not because subsidies reduce demand: a separate counterfactual that removes the 2024 subsidy entirely lowers EV share by 23-33%. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.27924 |
| By: | Pascale Combes Motel (Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orléans, University Clermont Auvergne); Aimé Okoko (Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orléans, University Clermont Auvergne); Sonia Schwartz (Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orléans, University Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) on the capital structure, namely the debt ratio, of French firms from 2007 to 2018. To do this, we construct an original database linking French firms subject to the ETS to their financial variables. Using a matching method, we show that firms participating in the ETS have a higher debt ratio than non-participating ones. To consider the effect of the initial allocation of allowances, we divide our sample of treated firms according to their initial allocation quartile. We find that firms with the lowest initial allowances have the highest debt ratio. Furthermore, the ETS's effect on firms' capital structure is observed during Phase 2 (2008-2012) as opposed to Phase 3 (2013-2020) and concerns firms operating on domestic markets. The effect also differs according to the sectors selected. Our results suggest that, faced with the ETS, firms anticipated the future tightening of environmental constraints. Firms that received the fewest free-of-charge allowances complied by investing in pollution-reduction technologies relying on debt financing. Environmental policy variables, therefore, have an impact on the financial structure of firms. |
| Keywords: | EU-ETS, capital structure, initial allocation, propensity scores, entropy balancing |
| JEL: | C33 D22 G32 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2024.05 |
| By: | Bosker, Maarten; Van Den Herik, Else-Marie; Pelzl, Paul; Poelhekke, Steven |
| Abstract: | An increasing number of developing countries are restricting non-renewable natural resource exports to encourage domestic processing, move up the global value chain, and spur local development. This paper studies the local labor-market effects of Indonesia’s voluntary export ban on unprocessed nickel and bauxite in 2014, previously a major source of export revenue. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of the ban, opening of new processing facilities, and the location of Indonesia's mineral deposits, we find that — after an initial dip — major investments in nickel processing increased employment in nickel mining districts. New smelters drove structural change, shifting jobs from agriculture to mining and manufacturing. In sharp contrast, the ban only led to very limited investment in bauxite processing, causing bauxite production and local employment to fall. We also find that nickel processing raised mining employment in Indonesia's coal districts, which provide the main source of energy for nickel processing. |
| Keywords: | Industrial policy; Export restrictions; critical minerals; Local development; Global value chains |
| JEL: | O52 O24 F16 F18 Q3 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20791 |
| By: | Kalantzakos, Sophia |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138552 |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | Energy policy models need asset-level data that are complete, current, historical and prospective, and traceable to authoritative primary sources. Yet across much of the world these data arrive late or incomplete. We introduce a computable benchmark for this task: reconstruct the register of Vietnam's 177 thermal power plants and score the result against a hand-compiled, per-cell-sourced reference. We find that the task is hard for today's AI systems. Fourteen language models answering from memory recovered much less than the Wikipedia lists contain, even though these lists had presumably been in their training corpora for years. We observed that a reference-free signal, the within-run variability of the reported capacities, correlates with accuracy, letting us screen out weak runs without the reference. We then tested the commercial frontier of mid-2026: four agentic systems with web access and extended reasoning. Only one improved coverage over the memory-only query, and a multi-step harness degraded three of the four. A curated document set improved coverage, most for the weaker agents. Fusing the lists from multiple runs more than doubles recall. We conclude that an evergreen statistical-quality register requires deliberate knowledge engineering. We propose deriving datasets as dated snapshots from a sourced, auditable knowledge base, mechanically updated from a periodically harvested corpus, with humans in the loop to vet sources and resolve the hard tail. |
| Keywords: | AI benchmark, Large language models, Agentic systems, Retrieval-Augmented Generation, Energy statistics, Knowledge engineering, Vietnam, Thermal power |
| Date: | 2026–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-05658462 |
| By: | Shilin Ou; Yifan Xu; Luyao Zhang |
| Abstract: | As agentic AI systems are increasingly applied to cyber-physical environments, their evaluation requires assessment of both task performance and trustworthiness. In decentralized energy markets, autonomous agents may improve market utility, but may also exploit invalid physical data, create artificial liquidity, and produce unstable governance decisions. Therefore, we propose SolarChain-Eval, a physics-constrained benchmark for evaluating trustworthy economic agents. It formulates market governance as a Gymnasium-compatible Markov Decision Process, where agents make hourly decisions. SolarChain-Eval evaluates each policy across multiple dimensions, including market utility, physical safety, slippage, action smoothness, spatial fairness, and auditability. To support agentic evaluation, SolarChain-Eval incorporates an LLM-based Planner/Auditor layer. The Planner defines episode-level action bounds and audit rules, while the Auditor reviews and revises high-risk actions. All interventions are recorded through structured logs, including trigger signals, proposed actions, revised actions, and audit rationales. Experiments with static, random, myopic, RL, and RL+LLM policies reveal a clear utility-safety trade-off. RL agents improve market utility but can still produce unsafe behavior. When the physics penalty is removed, reward-maximizing agents exploit invalid generation and increase artificial liquidity. The LLM Planner/Auditor improves auditability and mitigates selected risks, but it cannot fully compensate for a misspecified reward function. These results indicate that trustworthy agentic AI evaluation requires both physical constraints and transparent intervention traces. We release data and code as open access on GitHub for replicability. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.08681 |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris, ECOSYS - Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This data paper presents a curated, multilingual corpus of 31, 713 works on climate finance published between 1990 and 2024. The dataset is assembled from 6 complementary sources that combine academic databases, institutional repositories, and grey literature, enabling broader coverage than single-source bibliometric studies. A multilingual retrieval strategy based on an eight-language keyword taxonomy is used to capture relevant works across linguistic contexts, while a reproducible pipeline integrates deduplication, metadata harmonisation, and quality filtering. The resulting corpus includes a citation network derived from Crossref and OpenAlex, as well as pre-computed multilingual embeddings to support cross-lingual analysis. |
| Keywords: | history of economic thought, scientometrics, sentence-transformer embeddings, multilingual, bibliometric corpus, climate finance |
| Date: | 2026–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-05570600 |
| By: | Schneider, Eric |
| Abstract: | There is strong evidence that exposure to atmospheric pollution is detrimental to health. However, most current and historical research has focussed on the short-run consequences of exposure to pollution on health, and historical researchers have not been able to assess the effects of pollution on a wide range of health indicators. This paper uses fog events at a daily level as a proxy for acute extreme pollution events in historical London (1892-1919). It tests whether exposure to fog at birth and at the time of sickness influenced a wide range of indicators of child health in the short and long term, including birth outcomes (birth weight, length, stillbirth, premature birth and neonatal death), mortality risk (mortality before age 15), growth outcomes (heights and weights in infancy, childhood and adolescence), and morbidity outcomes (incidence, prevalence and sickness duration from respiratory diseases and measles). Being born on a fog day did not have strong effects on birth or growth outcomes or on morbidity outcomes for upper respiratory diseases. However, being born on a fog day increased mortality risk from respiratory diseases and increased incidence, prevalence and sickness duration from measles, influenza and other lower respiratory diseases. I also find short-run effects of fog on sickness duration from influenza and measles. Overall, the mixed results suggest that atmospheric pollution caused significant ill health in historical London but only for limited dimensions of health. |
| JEL: | N33 I12 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20387 |
| By: | Burling, Fiona (Harris School of Public Policy and Energy Policy Institute (EPIC), University of Chicago, and NBER.); Sudarshan, Anant (Department of Economics, University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Developing country governments routinely attempt to collect revenue using threats they cannot systematically enforce. We study how citizens assess the credibility of such empty threats in the context of payment for electricity in Madhya Pradesh, India, where state-run utilities recovered only 60 cents per dollar of power supplied. Using two field experiments covering 30, 000 households with high arrears, we show that the household response to a threat depends on the state's choice of messenger. The first experiment randomly exposes households to reminders, threats, and enforcement action without changing incentives, state capacity, laws, or information about debt. Legal threats delivered by local linesmen-state agents with a history of ignoring non-payment have no effect. Yet identical notices sent by registered mail, bypassing linesmen, reduce arrears by 11.4 percent among recipients, a 241 percent return-on-investment. We hypothesize that choosing compromised messengers changes household beliefs about the state's credibility, implying dynamic effects that we test with the second experiment: a year later, we randomly mail a legal notice to previously-treated households. Past treatments affect future responses. Consumers originally visited by a linesman do not respond, while those not exposed to linesmen reduce arrears. Moreover, when we in crease linesman credibility by requiring them to follow up on threats, this gap narrows. The experimental results are together consistent with a model in which consumers use the state's choice of messenger to infer the threat's credibility, and demonstrate that low-credibility state agents can render threats ineffective. Low-capacity governments may improve revenue collection by bypassing their agents. |
| Keywords: | electricity, threats, messengers, state capacity, taxation JEL Classification: O13, Q48, H26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:813 |
| By: | Büchinger, Ricarda; Dreher, Marc; Kungl, Gregor |
| Abstract: | In den zurückliegenden Jahren gab es eine Reihe an Entwicklungen, die sich als eine Verlangsamung, teilweise auch Umkehrung ökologisch-nachhaltiger Transformationsprozesse betrachten lassen - etwa der Austritt der USA aus dem Pariser Klimaabkommen. Diese Entwicklungen werden in der akademischen und öffentlichen Debatte als anti-ökologischer Backlash diskutiert. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht auf Basis von 31 qualitativen Interviews mit Entscheidungsträger:innen aus Unternehmen der Energiewirtschaft, Lebensmittelbranche und verarbeitenden Industrie, wie der antiökologische Backlash von Wirtschaftsakteuren wahrgenommen wird, welche Zukunftserwartungen sie damit verbinden und mit welchen unternehmerischen Maßnahmen sie ihm begegnen. Das Ergebnis zeigt, dass der Backlash zwar breit wahrgenommen wird, die damit verbundenen Zukunftserwartungen aber sehr heterogen sind und sich unter anderem zwischen den verschiedenen Branchen unterscheiden. Während einzelne Unternehmen nachhaltigkeitsbezogene Investitionen reduzieren oder pausieren, bleiben die Reaktionen auf den Backlash in den meisten unserer Fälle tentativ und beschränken sich auf eine Anpassung der Außenkommunikation. Aufgrund der Aktualität des Themas bleiben die Ergebnisse jedoch vorläufig und eine weitere begleitende Untersuchung erforderlich. |
| Abstract: | In recent years, there have been a number of developments that can be seen as a slowdown-and in some cases, a reversal-of sustainability transition processes, such as the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement. These developments are discussed in academic debate as an anti-environmental backlash. Based on 31 qualitative interviews with decision-makers from companies in the energy sector, food supply, and processing industry, this study examines how economic actors perceive the antienvironmental backlash, what future expectations they associate with it, and what business measures they are taking to address it. The results show that while the backlash is widely recognized, the associated future expectations are highly heterogeneous and vary, among other things, across different sectors. While some companies are reducing or pausing sustainability-related investments, reactions to the backlash remain tentative in most of our cases and are limited to adjustments in external communication. However, given the topicality of the issue, the findings remain preliminary, and further monitoring is required. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:stusoi:341988 |
| By: | Fanny Alivon; Geoffrey Johnen; Manitra Rakotomena |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tep:tepprr:rr26-01 |
| By: | Besley, Tim; Brzezinski, Adam |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic model where two parties compete for office by offering policies supported by narratives that describe policy effects. Voters demand narratives that suit their interests based on motivated reasoning and parties supply narratives to win elections. Over time, the set of narratives can expand endogenously. We characterize equilibrium paths and show how polarizing narratives can benefit a party through enabling policy differentiation. We then develop a specific application to ``neoliberalism'', a policy narrative that gained currency in the late 1970s. Our analysis clarifies why the 1970s oil shocks incentivized parties on the right to supply neoliberal narratives and why that prompted parties on the left to respond with the ``Third Way'' narrative that became a new consensus. These narrative dynamics were precipitated by a temporary shock but permanently altered the policy equilibrium, preventing a return to the old post-war consensus. |
| JEL: | D72 D91 H11 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20410 |
| By: | Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik; Hoffmann, Timo; Jannsen, Nils; Kooths, Stefan; Krohn, Johanna; Schröder, Christian |
| Abstract: | The German economy is gradually regaining its footing. The main impulses are expected to stem from expansionary fiscal policy. However, a broad-based and strong recovery remains out of reach, as structural weaknesses-most visibly reflected in the pronounced loss of competitiveness-continue to weigh on economic activity. So far, there are few indications that firms intend to significantly expand investment or employment. Additional headwinds may arise from the military conflict in Iran, which has led to a noticeable increase in commodity prices. This forecast assumes that commodity prices-consistent with market expectations since the onset of the conflict-will remain significantly elevated only for a short period and then start to ease again. Under this scenario, the associated loss of purchasing power amounts to around 0.6 percent relative to GDP this year. While this will weigh noticeably on economic activity, it is unlikely to trigger a downturn. Against this backdrop, GDP is expected to grow by 0.8 percent this year, slightly less than projected in our winter forecast (1.0 percent). For 2027, we anticipate GDP growth of 1.4 percent (winter forecast: 1.3 percent). Inflation is projected to rise more strongly this year than previously expected, reaching 2.5 percent due to higher energy prices (winter forecast: 1.8 percent). For next year, we continue to expect an inflation rate of 2.1 percent. German exporters are likely to expand their business moderately again, although they are expected to continue losing global market shares. Investment activity will be driven primarily by additional public spending, while private investment is likely to remain subdued. Employment is expected to respond with a lag to the economic expansion and will likely begin to increase again only in the second half of this year. The public deficit is projected to rise from 2.7 percent of GDP in 2025 to 4.2 percent in 2027. |
| Keywords: | Economic forecast/economic diagnosis, Gross domestic product (GDP), Consumer prices/Inflation, Labor market, Germany |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:341976 |
| By: | Yassine kirat (Laboratoier d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO) & Labex VOLTAIRE) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impacts of both natural-resource abundance and natural-resource volatility on economic growth. We apply the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) approach of Gonzales et al. (2005), which is more flexible than the standard fixed-effects model, to data on 87 countries over the 1989-2015 period. Our results suggest that: (i) greater natural-resource abundance significantly raises economic growth, contrary to the resource-curse paradox; (ii) the impact of natural-resource abundance, investment and human capital on GDP growth rate per capita is non-linear, and varies by the level of natural-resource abundance volatility; and (iii) the subsequent GDP growth loss may reach 17 percentage points per year for countries with the highest natural-resource abundance volatility, compared to those with the lowest natural-resource abundance volatility. Volatility in natural-resource revenues and poor governmental responses then seem to drive the resource-curse paradox, instead of natural-resource abundance as such. |
| Keywords: | Growth, resource curse, natural resources volatility, PSTR, , , , |
| JEL: | C23 F43 Q32 O13 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2024.07 |
| By: | Pidkuyko Myroslav (European Commission - JRC); Rossi Raffaele |
| Abstract: | We study the household welfare effects of fiscal support during the 2021-2023 inflation surge. We compare two common policy responses: temporary VAT cuts on food and energy, and expansions of means-tested transfers. Using a quantitative heterogeneous-household model of saving, expenditure composition, and labour supply, we find that VAT cuts generate meaningful welfare gains, but these gains accrue mainly to pensioners and higher-wealth households. A revenue-neutral expansion of means-tested transfers delivers about twice the aggregate welfare gains and spreads them more evenly across households. More broadly, the paper shows that the form of fiscal relief is central to its aggregate and distributional effects during inflation surges. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202608 |
| By: | Fulvi, Chiara; Smolenska, Agnieszka; Brochard, Algirdas; Hajagos Toth, Akos |
| Abstract: | An important element of banks’ transition planning are factors that affect their ability to deliver on their strategic transition commitments, known as ‘dependencies’. They are also essential to assessments of banks’ risk management frameworks. Yet such assessments often underplay banks’ role as intermediaries that will channel finance across the economy over the course of the transition. This policy insight explores new approaches to managing banks’ dependencies, with the aim of improving risk governance and providing a clearer view of transition-related opportunities. The authors focus on the new concept of ‘intermediated dependencies’, which arise where the delivery of a bank’s transition strategy depends on the behaviour, capacity or choices of clients and counterparties, and where outcomes are neither wholly external nor fully within the institution’s control. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:139046 |