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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Mei Lu; Michael G Pollitt |
| Keywords: | Carbon price, carbon trading, CBAM, energy price elasticity |
| JEL: | L94 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2508 |
| By: | Amigues, Jean-Pierre; Moreaux, Michel |
| Abstract: | The theme of the ’energy transition’ away from fossil fuels toward clean renewable energy has attracted a lot of attention in the context of climate change mitigation. However the emergence of a new energy system raises its own problems. An aggressive carbon pricing or a renewables subsidisation policy can result in fast investment in poor performing energy conversion capacities. Once installed the industry will remain locked-in in these inferior technical options especially if capital investments are submitted to adjust-ment costs. With the help of a stylized fully dynamic model, we show the following. Without an access cost to primary energy (e.g. solar radiation) the industry can run more performing equipments even if they are both more costly to operate and more costly to build provided a suÿciently strong en-ergy demand. With this preliminary result in hands we assume next convex access costs to primary energy, due for example to limited space access con-straints. The high performing energy conversion technique has now a produc-tivity advantage. However for a small energy demand it can remain optimal for the industry to first deploy high performance equipments together with low performing ones before dismantling their stock of high performing equip-ments. Despite the increase of the marginal access cost to primary energy coming alongside the deployment of production capacities, thus inducing a fall of the cost gap between the two technologies, the capital price of the high performing equipments can fall down to zero before the capital price of low performing ones because of the building costs gap, implying that the industry should scrap in the end its high performing equipments while still investing in low cost (and low performing) ones. This ’transition inside the transition’ problem provides also interesting insights concerning the regulation of the energy transition towards renewable energy. It suggests that avoiding lock-in in renewable energy provision is more a matter of speed of increase of the carbon price than just the fixation of its level at any moment. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:130530 |
| By: | Paul Simshauser; Evan Shellshear |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy Zones, renewables, battery storage, Shapely value |
| JEL: | D52 D53 G12 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2506 |
| By: | David Newbery; Chi Kong Chyong |
| Keywords: | Variable renewable electricity, marginal curtailment, least-cost expansion |
| JEL: | H23 L94 Q28 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2505 |
| By: | Paul Simshauser; Joel Gilmore |
| Keywords: | Electrification, renewables, natural gas, energy-only markets, dispatchable plant capacity |
| JEL: | D52 D53 G12 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2509 |
| By: | Johansson, Eleanor (The Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Norbäck, Pehr-Johan (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Persson, Lars (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | It has been suggested that an intensified trade war between China and the US could reduce CO2 emissions associated with exports. We develop an export-greenfield-endogenous merger model, showing that significantly increased tariffs can enable domestic firms to undertake entry-deterring acquisitions. This forces foreign firms to remain exporters, which, in turn, leads to higher emissions. Strong competition policies and support for green technologies can help address this issue, resulting in lower emissions. Furthermore, we show that implementing an emissions trading system combined with a carbon border adjustment mechanism has effects comparable to those of increased tariffs. |
| Keywords: | Tariff war; CO2 emissions; M&A; Endogenous mergers emission trading system; Carbon Border Adjustments; Competition policy |
| JEL: | F23 L40 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1526 |
| By: | Shawhan, Daniel (Resources for the Future); Peplinski, McKenna (Resources for the Future); Robson, Sally; Russell, Ethan; Ziegler, Ethan (Resources for the Future); Palmer, Karen (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | The United States is entering a period of rapid electricity demand growth spurred by electrification of buildings and transport, a renewed emphasis on domestic manufacturing, and a booming data center market. At the same time, a combination of challenges has extended typical development timelines to 10 years for transmission and 5 years for generation infrastructure (Solomon 2023; Rand et al. 2024). These long timelines slow cost-reducing system additions and compound the difficulty of meeting the new demand. Delaying the build-out of energy infrastructure also increases system congestion and thereby reduces the resilience and reliability of the grid. In this paper, we estimate some of the major effects of having longer development timelines like the current ones, which we term “delays.”We estimate the effects of such delays on the generation resource mix, costs for electricity and natural gas customers, profits of the electricity and natural gas supply industries, government revenue, and network congestion for the entire US and Canadian power system. We find that these delays cause electricity scarcity, which leads to increased energy bills and system congestion. The resulting changes to the generation mix increase the emissions from the power sector. Delays also have some positive economic effects, such as increased energy producer profit and higher government tax revenue. We find that the effects of the transmission development delays are similar to those of the generation development delays, per billion dollars of investment (levelized cost) delayed. Our results indicate that shortening the development times for transmission and generation in the United States and Canada would be likely to save energy customers tens of billions of dollars per year and reduce transmission congestion considerably.For our analysis, we use the Engineering, Economic, and Environmental Electricity Simulation Tool (E4ST), a detailed simulation model of the US and Canadian electricity sector. E4ST predicts hourly system operation, generator construction, generator retirements, system costs, and other outcomes under each simulated set of circumstances. We focus on outcomes that are realized in the year 2032. To estimate the effects of delays, we simulate the future with and without a shift in a set of transmission or generation investments that would have occurred by 2032 to after 2032. In the simulations with delays, we allow existing generators to defer their retirements but limit what generators can be constructed that are not built in the no-delays simulation. The set of delayed transmission investments represents 6 percent of US and Canadian transmission megawatt-miles (MW-miles). This deferred investment represents between one and several years’ worth of transmission investments, depending on the period of comparison. We represent generation development delays by reducing wind-, solar-, and gas-fueled generation capacity added between 2028 and 2032 (“new capacity”) by 20 percent each. The delayed generation investments equal 4 percent of total generation capacity, or approximately one year of projected generation capacity additions. Our results can be used in the evaluation of the costs and benefits of policy changes or regulatory or process changes that would shorten or lengthen development times.Our central set of background assumptions includes the US Inflation Reduction Act tax credits for new nonemitting generators and existing nuclear generators. It omits the 2024 EPA greenhouse gas rules and the 2024 Good Neighbor Plan for NOx emissions, as they are likely to be revised under the current administration. In three alternative sets of background assumptions (sensitivity cases), we employ different policy assumptions or technology costs.Our results show that delays have a negative impact on the development of both emitting and nonemitting generators. While the magnitude of prevented capacity additions is greater for wind and solar, this is mainly because, in all scenarios, investors choose to build more wind- and solar-powered capacity than natural gas–fueled capacity. Across all cases, we find that the transmission and generation delays reduce the construction of generation facilities powered by wind, sun, and natural gas approximately in proportion to their shares of new capacity additions (all between 20 and 29 percent). This means that transmission capacity additions are approximately as likely to be important for a given new gas-fueled generator as for a given new wind or solar generation farm.Despite reducing new wind-, solar-, and gas-powered capacity by similar proportions, the delays increase gas-fueled (and coal-fueled) generation and reduce wind- and solar-powered generation. The main reason is that gas- and coal-fueled generators are the existing generators that can most commonly generate more, through a higher utilization rate or deferral of retirement. In the transmission-delays scenario, gas- and coal-fueled generation rises by 9 percent, while wind- and solar-powered generation decreases by 7 percent, compared with the scenario without the delays. In the generation-delays scenario central case, gas- and coal-fueled generation increases by 7 percent, while wind- and solar-powered generation decreases by 6 percent, compared with the scenario without the delays.Transmission and generation delays can also increase system congestion, meaning transmission lines are being operated at their limits more frequently. Transmission line congestion can reduce the efficiency, reliability, and resilience of the power system and lead to higher electricity costs. We find that transmission and generation delays increase system congestion across all cases. With our central background assumptions, the transmission delays increase system congestion by 14 percent, and the generation delays increase it by 7 percent.Changes to the mix of grid resources and to system operation are consequential for costs and prices in the power system. They affect the economic outcomes for consumers, producers, and the government. Different generation facilities have different capital and operation costs, and transmission and generation constraints increase electricity scarcity and prices. Further, higher natural gas demand within the electric power sector increases the cost of natural gas for both power plants and other gas users. The delays affect government tax revenue mainly by changing the amount of generation capacity built that qualifies for federal tax credits.The deferral of transmission and generation investments produces the effects described in this paper, some of which are costs. It also results in what we describe as capital cost savings, which simply refers to the savings associated with not building new transmission and generation. The estimated annual capital cost savings from either the transmission development or generation investment delays are $5 billion. We assume that the transmission capital cost savings accrues to electricity users and the generation capital cost savings to generation investors. This benefit of the delays can be compared with the costs for electricity users:The modeled transmission delays increase the cost of electricity and natural gas together by $22 billion (or $27 billion before counting the transmission capital cost savings). Hence the net cost to energy users is more than four times the capital cost savings. A $22 billion increase is $55 per capita, which represents a 3 percent increase of economy-wide retail spending on electricity and natural gas. The electricity price increase is a third of a cent per kilowatt-hour (kWh).The modeled generation delays increase the cost of electricity and natural gas together by $28 billion. This cost to energy users is more than five times the capital cost savings. A $28 billion increase is $70 per capita, which represents a 4 percent increase of economy-wide retail spending on electricity and natural gas. The electricity price increase is 0.45 cents per kWh.The model estimates of price increases from the delays are not unreasonably large; in 2024, capacity prices in PJM, which serves one-sixth of the US and Canadian population, increased by $12 billion.We also find that certain stakeholders benefit from the delays across all cases. In the central case, we estimate the following:The transmission delays increase the total profits of electricity and gas producers together by $19 billion, through higher electricity and natural gas prices.The generation delays increase the total profits of electricity and gas producers together by $22 billion (or $17 billion before counting the generation capital cost savings), through higher electricity and natural gas prices.Transmission and generation delays increase government tax revenue by $10 billion and $7 billion, respectively, because there are fewer generators that receive government incentives.The results are similar in the sensitivity cases. The largest difference is that the costs, benefits, and net costs of the delays are larger in the sensitivity case with higher wind and solar costs, and the delays increase tax revenue much less in the sensitivity case without the Inflation Reduction Act incentives for clean generation.In our second paper, we estimate and incorporate the effects of the delays on air pollution, mortality from air pollution, climate change damages, and disadvantaged Americans to better characterize the full net costs of transmission and generation delays. Other effects we have not included in this paper include the costs of financing projects longer before they start producing, the costs of projects canceled because of delays, the effects of slowed technology advancement, and the detriment to customers that must delay expansion plans (e.g., new data center, factory, or home) as a result of the transmission or generation delays. |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-25-14 |
| By: | Shawhan, Daniel (Resources for the Future); Peplinski, McKenna (Resources for the Future); Robson, Sally; Russell, Ethan; Ziegler, Ethan (Resources for the Future); Domeshek, Maya; Palmer, Karen (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Electricity transmission and generation investments are necessary for maintaining a reliable power grid and achieving air pollution and climate goals. However, in the United States in recent years, the typical development time for additions to the electricity transmission system has been 10 years (Solomon 2023). For new generation facilities, the typical development time from interconnection request to commercial operation is 5 years, up from 2 years in 2008 (Rand et al. 2024). There has been much recent discussion of factors that contribute to these lengthy timelines and of potential reforms to reduce them. In this paper, we estimate the extent to which lengthy development timelines, or delays, affect the power system and consequently emissions, public health, and people’s pocketbooks. We also estimate how these costs and benefits accrue to different demographic groups.To estimate the impacts of such delays, we simulate the power system in the year 2032 three times: with no delays, with transmission delays, and with generation delays. We then compare the results. The comparison indicates that the lengthening of transmission and generation capacity development times in recent years increases emissions enough to cause hundreds of premature deaths for each year that the long development times persist. Low-income households, Black-headed households, and Hispanic-headed households are disproportionately harmed by the delays. Rural households are disproportionately low-income.We use a detailed model of the US and Canadian power sector, the Engineering, Economic, and Environmental Electricity Simulation Tool (E4ST). The model incorporates a natural gas market model and projects generator construction, retirement, and hourly operation, as well as other outcomes, in each scenario. We then use a detailed air pollution model to estimate the effects on fine airborne particulate matter (PM₂.₅) concentrations and on the deaths caused by those PM₂.₅ changes. Finally, we use the RFF Incidence Model to estimate the value of the economic and mortality impacts for different demographic groups.To represent the transmission and generation delays, we shift a set of transmission system additions and a set of generation capacity additions from being completed by 2032 to being completed after 2032. We shift a set of real, anticipated new transmission lines in the transmission delay scenario. In the generation delay scenario, we shift 20 percent of four generator types’ new generation capacity that our model predicts would otherwise be built between 2028 and 2032. The 20 percent reduction applies to each major type: wind, solar, gas, and energy storage. The delayed transmission system additions have an annualized cost of approximately $5 billion, creating an annual investment cost savings benefit from each year of delay that will be compared with other costs and benefits of the delay. With our central set of background assumptions—that is, in our central case—the delayed generation capacity additions also have an annualized cost of $5 billion. The set of delayed additions that we model represents only a fraction of total transmission or generation infrastructure projects currently in various stages of development in the United States and Canada.Our central set of background assumptions includes the US Inflation Reduction Act tax credits for new nonemitting generators and existing nuclear generators. It omits the 2024 EPA greenhouse gas rules and the 2023 Good Neighbor Plan for NOx emissions, both of which are expected to be revised under the current administration. In three alternative sets of background assumptions (sensitivity cases), we employ different policy assumptions or technology costs.Both the transmission and generation delays result in a net increase of emitting generation, which causes negative health and other environmental outcomes. In our central case, the transmission delays have the following estimated effects (compared with the scenario without the delays):These delays increase power sector emissions of greenhouse gases in 2032 by 9 percent, NOₓ by 10 percent, SO₂ by 8 percent, and PM₂.₅ by 9 percent. For comparison, the average annual rate of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the US power sector from 2005 through 2023 was 3 percent.The increased 2032 emissions cause an estimated increase in premature deaths from PM₂.₅ and ground-level ozone by 350 and 370, respectively.The increased 2032 emissions increase estimated net environmental damage by $31 billion, of which $9 billion is due to health damage from particulate matter and ground-level ozone and $22 billion is due to climate damage.Across the central and sensitivity cases, the effects of the transmission and generation delays are similar to each other. In our central case, the generation delays have the following estimated effects:These delays increase power sector emissions of greenhouse gases by 7 percent, NOₓ by 7 percent, SO₂ by 6 percent, and PM₂.₅ by 7 percent.The increased 2032 emissions cause an estimated increase in premature deaths from PM₂.₅ and ground-level ozone by 290 and 250, respectively.The increased 2032 emissions increase estimated net environmental damage by $24 billion, of which $7 billion is due to health damage from particulate matter and ground-level ozone and $17 billion is due to climate damage.Our companion paper presents the economic costs and benefits. When we consider the economic and environmental costs and benefits of our central case together, we find that the total net cost of the transmission delays in 2032 is $24 billion, and the total net cost of the generation delays is $23 billion, after subtracting the $5 billion capital cost savings from each. The transmission delays we model increase environmental damage more than the generation delays we model, but they increase energy bills less. In addition, the effects of the delays on electric supply reliability are likely to be substantial and create additional costs, as discussed in our first paper.We find that the net costs of the delays are not uniformly distributed. Rather, the delays disproportionately harm low-income, Black, and Hispanic individuals. In our central case, the delays are not just regressive; they are hyper-regressive: Not only do the households in the highest income quintile bear a smaller cost; on average, they benefit from the delays at the expense of the households in the other quintiles, which are harmed by the delays. The delays increase energy producer profits and reduce taxes. Those effects disproportionately benefit the top income quintile and are larger than the health and utility bill costs for that quintile. Once reliability and climate change are taken into account, the delays might be net harmful for the highest income quintile as well, but we do not produce monetary estimates of those costs broken out by demographic groups.Black- and Hispanic-headed households are disproportionately harmed mainly because their health is more sensitive to a given increase in airborne particulate matter and because they benefit relatively little from increased energy producer profits and reduced taxes. Black individuals also tend to live in locations where the delays increase airborne particulate matter more than the average. On average, a Black individual is more than four times as likely to die prematurely because of increased particulate matter caused by transmission or generation delays as a White individual. Black and Hispanic-headed households, which constitute just 31 percent of the population and have lower average incomes, bear more total estimated net costs from delays than White-headed households, which constitute approximately 60 percent of the population.The results of the sensitivity cases are similar to the central case results. While the transmission and generation development delays produce some benefits in terms of higher energy producer profits and lower taxes, the costs via higher prices, shorter lives, and environmental harms are considerably larger. Black, Hispanic, and low-income people are, on average, the most harmed. |
| Date: | 2025–05–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-25-15 |
| By: | Dugoua, Eugenie; Gerarden, Todd D. |
| Abstract: | We study how individual inventors respond to incentives to work on “clean” electricity technologies. Using natural gas price variation, we estimate output and entry elasticities of inventors and measure the medium-term impacts of a price increase mirroring the social cost of carbon. We find that the induced clean innovation response primarily comes from existing clean inventors. New inventors are less responsive on the margin than their average contribution to clean energy patenting would indicate. Our results strengthen the rationale for government intervention to expedite the energy transition. |
| Keywords: | inventors; energy technology; induced innovation |
| JEL: | O31 Q55 Q40 |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124461 |
| By: | Adita Sultana; Abdullah Al Abrar Chowdhury; Azizul Hakim Rafi; Abdulla All Noman |
| Abstract: | The current paper investigates the influences of AI innovation, GDP growth, renewable energy utilization, the digital economy, and industrialization on CO2 emissions in the USA from 1990 to 2022, incorporating the ARDL methodology. The outcomes observe that AI innovation, renewable energy usage, and the digital economy reduce CO2 emissions, while GDP expansion and industrialization intensify ecosystem damage. Unit root tests (ADF, PP, and DF-GLS) reveal heterogeneous integration levels amongst components, ensuring robustness in the ARDL analysis. Complementary methods (FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR) validate the results, enhancing their reliability. Pairwise Granger causality assessments identify strong unidirectional connections within CO2 emissions and AI innovation, as well as the digital economy, underscoring their significant roles in ecological sustainability. This research highlights the requirement for strategic actions to nurture equitable growth, including advancements in AI technology, green energy adoption, and environmentally conscious industrial development, to improve environmental quality in the United States. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.19933 |
| By: | David Franzmann; Thora Schubert; Heidi Heinrichs; Peter A. Kukla; Detlef Stolten |
| Abstract: | The expansion of renewable energy sources leads to volatility in electricity generation within energy systems. Subsurface storage of hydrogen in salt caverns can play an important role in long-term energy storage, but their global potential is not fully understood. This study investigates the global status quo and how much hydrogen salt caverns can contribute to stabilizing future renewable energy systems. A global geological suitability and land eligibility analysis for salt cavern placement is conducted and compared with the derived long-term storage needs of renewable energy systems. Results show that hydrogen salt caverns can balance between 43% and 66% of the global electricity demand and exist in North America, Europe, China, and Australia. By sharing the salt cavern potential with neighboring countries, up to 85% of the global electricity demand can be stabilized by salt caverns. Therefore, global hydrogen can play a significant role in stabilizing renewable energy systems. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.12135 |
| By: | Serebriakova, Alexandra (Sasha); Polzin, Friedemann; Sanders, Mark |
| Abstract: | A swift transition to renewable energy sources in the European Union is necessary for mitigating climate change. However, in a period of higher ECB policy rates meant to combat inflation, it is unclear how monetary policy impacts renewable energy installation. Prior research shows heterogeneous effects of policy rates on sectors with varying industrial characteristics, meaning that renewable technologies may be hit disproportionately by monetary contractions due to their investment requirements, life-cycle stage, and/or dependence on external finance. This paper uses fixed effects panel analysis of 27 European countries to look at the interactions between installed capacity of 10 utility-scale energy technologies, their characteristics, and monetary policy. Over the period of 2001-2021, fossil fuel, hydropower and nuclear technologies were positively affected by monetary contractions, while a 25 basis point rise in policy rates was associated with an 8% decrease in the new installed capacity of wind offshore plants, and a 26.5% decrease for solar PV. Significant interaction effects using measures of investment intensity and external finance dependence for energy technologies, yield evidence in favour of the interest rate and balance sheet channels of monetary policy transmission. To address endogeneity concerns, we use a two-stage least squares (2SLS) approach in an LCOE specification for the interest rate channel in the energy sector which confirms these findings. Our results suggest the existence of an unintended bias in contractionary monetary operations and central banks should consider flanking policies (such as preferred interest rates) to offset the disadvantage for renewables. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy, renewable energy, interest rates, transmission channels, energy transition |
| JEL: | E43 Q42 O16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:316394 |
| By: | Simone Borghesi; Jacopo Cammeo |
| Abstract: | The severe upheavals caused by anthropogenic climate change have led to an increasing global effort to mitigate the negative effects of global warming. In this, the European Union has taken the lead in pioneering initiatives to achieve carbon neutrality as a continent by 2050. The climate policies put in place follow a deep decarbonization approach, aiming at a quick response to the climate crisis through the pursuit of stringent goals. These numerous and ambitious policies have led to some encouraging results, but they look challenging for their potential impact on the socio-economic system.The existing literature and the work of relevant research centers on environmental economics find that the paradigm shift should not lead to significant effects on macroeconomic variables such as GDP, inflation, employment, investment, and industrial production. However, it is clear that the qualitative transformation required to move from a fossil fuel-based society to a net-zero carbon one is not painless. At least in the short term, stringent climate policies may take on the contours of a real shock, with potentially unfavorable and, above all, unfair macroeconomic repercussions. If not properly guided, the phasing out of fossil fuels and the extension of carbon markets to new sectors not previously covered by the mechanism might impact the most vulnerable segments of the population, squeezing economic development, negatively affecting employment, and undermining consumption.To avoid the adverse effects of decarbonization, Europe has several mechanisms at its disposal, such as the Just Transition Mechanism, the redistribution of EU ETS2 revenues to the Social Climate Fund, and plans for clean industrial production and green technologies. However, further efforts will be needed to mitigate the impact of the net-zero strategy on citizens’ purchasing power, avoid stranded assets, sustain green conversion efforts of the industrial system, and support the development of new technologies such as carbon capture, utilization, and storage.The new European Commission will have to deal with a complex macroeconomic situation already geared toward stringent but fair climate policies. The hope is to meet the planned timetable without compromising the socio-economic system, respecting the motto “leave no one behind” and at the same time coming close to the stringent goals of the Paris Agreement. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpr:_55 |
| By: | Brita Bye; Taran Fæhn; Lars Gulbrandsen; Kevin R. Kaushal; Christian Wilhelm Mohr; Gunnhild Søgaard; Asbjørn Torvanger; Jørgen Wettestad; Knut Øistad; Taran Faehn |
| Abstract: | Norway has positioned itself as a climate policy forerunner by aiming to reach net-zero emissions already by 2030. However, the net-zero ambition is not well-defined, not legally binding, nor substantiated by action plans. In a first, interdisciplinary, analysis we scrutinise the net-zero concept and discuss unilateral options. Second, we provide an economic analysis with a global computable model, SNOW, of the costs and macroeconomic impacts of various policy scenarios. It explores how the net-zero ambition interacts with other 2030 goals and quantifies the impacts of emphasising domestic abatement and carbon removal measures vs. paying for emission mitigation abroad. Finally, the 2030 results are revisited to assess how well they align with Norwegian and global climate targets for 2050.The main findings are that pursuing the net-zero ambition, on top of other binding 2030 goals Norway is already committed to, will increase costs by 25-100% depending on the use of domestic measures. On the margin, domestic measures are found to have only small, uncertain, and costly mitigation potential, thus, buying international carbon credits will be inevitable. Besides being significantly cheaper, carbon trading can have the potential benefits of developing the credit markets and the individual projects’ qualities. Even if domestic measures can play but a modest part in the net-zero strategy towards 2030, we identify several steps governments unilaterally can take today to expand abatement opportunities towards mid-century. We also find measures that seem cost-effective in pursuing 2030 goals but look less attractive against a global 2050 backdrop. |
| Keywords: | net-zero emissions, climate change mitigation, abatement policies, nationally determined contributions, carbon credits, emissions trading system, effort-sharing regulation, LULUCF. |
| JEL: | Q40 Q50 R40 H20 H30 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11834 |
| By: | Jacob Greenspon; Gordon H. Hanson |
| Abstract: | How does improving access to the supply of energy affect regional specialization in manufacturing? We evaluate the long-run employment impacts of pipelines constructed by the U.S. government during World War II to transport oil and gas from the oil fields of the Southwest to wartime industrial producers in the Northeast. The pipelines were built rapidly to connect end points along a direct path that minimized use of scarce construction materials. Postwar they were converted to supply en route customers, giving counties close to the pipelines access to a cheap and plentiful source of energy. Between 1940 and 1950, counties with better access to pipeline gas had larger increases in their share of employment in energy-intensive industries. These impacts persisted to the mid-1980s for all energy-intensive industries and to the late 1990s for the subset of industries intensive in the direct use of electricity, despite the disruptive effects of the 1970s energy crisis. Our findings are relevant for understanding energy-related path dependence in local economic development patterns and how government intervention in energy markets affects industry location in the short and long run. |
| JEL: | F15 J23 N7 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33721 |
| By: | Sergio Potenciano Menci; Laura Andolfi; Rawan Akkouch |
| Abstract: | European electricity markets have been complex since their inception. Policies and technologies advancing renewable integration, consumer empowerment, flexibility, and electrification are reshaping generation and consumption, increasing this complexity. System operators face congestion, voltage management, and redispatch challenges while market actors navigate imbalances and volatility. New market structures, such as energy communities and local flexibility markets, aim to address local energy dynamics and integrate decentralized flexibility. However, their fit within existing market frameworks remains unclear, leading to inconsistent interpretations and regulatory uncertainties. This manuscript presents a graphical classification of local markets, positioning them within electricity procurement (e.g., wholesale) and system operation (e.g., ancillary) services while illustrating their interrelations. Despite their potential, these markets remain in early development, facing regulatory ambiguities, resource limitations, and coordination challenges. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.13919 |
| By: | Bojan Shimbov (University Jaume I, Institute of International Economics & Department of Economics); Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso (University Jaume I, Institute of International Economics & Department of Economics); Maite Alguacil (University Jaume I, Institute of International Economics & Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The main goal of this paper is to analyze the impact of carbon pricing, as a means to reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, on international trade in goods using a pane dataset of OECD and other developing countries with data over the period 2007 to 2018. We use Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood regressions (PPML) with multi-dimensional fixed effects to estimate a gravity model of trade with panel data. To conduct our empirical analysis, we combine data on emissions from fuel combustion, which account for approximately 80 percent of global human-induced CO2 emissions and have been the main target of carbon pricing, with detailed international trade data using the HS 6-digit codes and information on the market-based policies applied by the countries over the sample period. Our findings confirm that, regardless of the environmental stringency variable used, pollution constraints have a significant impact on trade flows, with this effect being particularly pronounced in the most polluting industries. |
| Keywords: | Environment and trade, Environmental policy, Pollution haven hypothesis, Gravity models, OECD |
| JEL: | F18 H23 Q52 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2024:i:5:p:62-87 |
| By: | Marzouk, Osama A. |
| Abstract: | An environment with reduced pollution from road vehicles and decarbonized transportation is one of the dimensions of smart cities. In this regard, new sales of vehicles intended for urban use should be oriented toward cleaner (greener) vehicles with less harmful environmental impacts. In the current study, two environmental rating variables provided by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) for model year 2023 vehicles (U.S. market) in 6 broad classes are employed to identify the best 10 models in each class. These classes are: two seaters (sports cars), cars, SUVs (sport utility vehicles), vans, station wagons (estate cars), and pickups (pickup trucks). The method used in these ratings is based on a combination of emissions life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmental economics. The first ACEEE rating variable is the environmental damage index (EDX), representing an estimated environmental damage cost (in U.S. cents per driving mile). The second ACEEE rating variable is the Green Score, which is a non-dimensional number (0–100 scale) derived from EDX. According to version 4 of the green building certification program LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) of the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC), green vehicles are defined as those having a Green Score of 45 or higher. In the current study, 85 selected top models were found to have a Green Score range from 41 to 67. Only 55 models of them (64.7% portion) are LEED compliant (classified as green vehicles), and thus are more recommended for use within smart cities than other models. |
| Date: | 2024–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:bjx3q_v1 |
| By: | S. H. Ward; M. Majeed; N. J. Lopes Cardozo |
| Abstract: | Global consumption of heat is vast and difficult to decarbonise, but it could present an opportunity for commercial fusion energy technology. The economics of supplying heat with fusion energy are explored in context of a future decarbonised energy system. A simple, generalised model is used to estimate the impact of selling heat on profitability, and compare it to selling electricity, for a variety of fusion proposed power plant permutations described in literature. Heat production has the potential to significantly improve the financial performance of fusion over selling electricity. Upon entering a highly electrified energy system, fusion should aim to operate as a grid-scale heat pump, avoiding both electrical conversion and recirculation costs whilst exploiting firm demand for high-value heat. This strategy is relatively high-risk, high-reward, but options are identified for hedging these risks. We also identify and discuss new avenues for competition in this domain, which would not exist if fusion supplies electricity only. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.11072 |
| By: | Guo, Sida; Zhong, Ziqi |
| Abstract: | With the growing severity of global climate change, achieving carbon neutrality has become a central focus worldwide. The intersection of population studies and carbon neutrality introduces significant challenges in predicting and optimizing energy consumption, as demographic factors play a crucial role in shaping carbon emissions. This paper proposes a model based on a Region-based Convolutional Neural Network (RCNN) and Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), enhanced with a dual-stage attention mechanism for optimization. The model automatically extracts key features from complex demographic and carbon emission data, leveraging the attention mechanism to assign appropriate weights, thereby capturing the behavioral patterns and trends in energy consumption driven by population dynamics more effectively. By integrating multi-source data, including historical carbon emissions, population density, demographic trends, meteorological data, and economic indicators, experimental results demonstrate the model's outstanding performance across multiple datasets. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–03–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127570 |
| By: | Octavio M. Aguilar; Cristina Fuentes-Albero |
| Abstract: | Using a broad definition of energy consumption that includes both residential energy use and gasoline for transport, we identify 20% of households in the PSID as energy burdened (EB) based on a twice-the-median, income-based threshold. Logit analysis shows that being nonwhite, being single with dependents, receiving public assistance, having no post-secondary education, and being unemployed increase the probability of being EB. We document four key empirical facts: (1) EB/non-EB status is persistent; (2) EB households have significantly higher marginal propensities to consume and marginal propensities to consume energy compared to non-EB households; (3) EB households experience lower expected energy consumption growth despite having higher expected income growth relative to non-EB households; and (4) EB households face more volatile energy consumption and income than non-EB households. Lastly, we show that both consumption inequality and energy consumption inequality have risen more moderately than income inequality over the 1999 to 2021 period. Inequality in residential energy consumption increased until 2009, then declined, whereas inequality in gasoline consumption for transport has risen steadily, reaching a level 50% higher in 2021 than in 1999. |
| Keywords: | Energy consumption; Energy burden; Inequality |
| JEL: | E21 I32 |
| Date: | 2025–04–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2025-26 |
| By: | Hambye-Verbrugghen, Jérôme; Bianchini, Stefano; Brockway, Paul Edward; Aramendia, Emmanuel; Heun, Matthew Kuperus; Marshall, Zeke |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we evaluate the potential of digitalisation to drive structural transformations toward a sustainable economy. We apply an index decomposition analysis (IDA) to understand the factors influencing energy demand in a panel of 31 high-income countries from 1971 to 2019. The IDA framework includes four factors related to the scale and sectoral composition of the economy and technical improvements, accounting for the quality of energy flows and actual work potential through useful exergy measures. We first apply the model at the sector level across 16 productive industries to explore cross-sector heterogeneity in the structure of energy demand. Industries are then classified by digital intensity categories, allowing us to compare results across different levels of digitalisation. We find that value added growth is the primary driver of energy use. While digitalisation alone does not fully explain trends in energy demand, it is associated with substantial value added growth in high digital intensity sectors and amplifies the use of energy. This suggests that digitalisation, if unchecked, may in fact exacerbate economic-ecological tensions rather than alleviate them. We discuss the implications of these findings in the context of recent policy actions aimed at accelerating the green and digital- "twin"-transition. |
| Keywords: | Structural Change, Energy, Energy Efficiency, Digitalisation, Technological Change |
| JEL: | Q43 Q55 L16 O44 O13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:penwps:316435 |
| By: | Castells-Quintana, David; Dominguez, Alvaro; Santos-Marquez, Felipe |
| Abstract: | We study the diffusion of adoptions of green technologies in Japan after the 2011 Fukushima incident. We find that, on average, municipalities within a 120 km radius of a given nuclear power plant adopted green technology at a higher rate than those outside that radius. We then rely on a network diffusion model to analyze the direction, speed, and order in which municipalities adopted said technology. Next, we perform a counterfactual analysis by targeting key spreaders to alter the diffusion process. Finally, we propose a novel targeting method accounting for possible "bottlenecks" preventing the propagation process in the network. |
| Keywords: | Energy Transition, Networks, Technology Diffusion |
| JEL: | C15 O33 P11 P18 Q42 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000083 |
| By: | Daisuke Murakami; Pavel V. Shevchenko; Tomoko Matsui; Aleksandar Arandjelovi\'c; Tor A. Myrvoll |
| Abstract: | We examine future trajectories of the social cost of carbon, global temperatures, and carbon concentrations using the cost-benefit Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model calibrated to the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) under two mitigation scenarios: achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and by 2100. The DICE model is calibrated to align industrial and land-use carbon emissions with projections from six leading process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs): IMAGE, MESSAGE--GLOBIOM, AIM/CGE, GCAM, REMIND--MAgPIE and WITCH--GLOBIOM. We find that even with aggressive mitigation (net-zero by 2050), global temperatures are projected to exceed $2^\circ\text{C}$ above preindustrial levels by 2100, with estimates ranging from $2.5^\circ\text{C}$ to $2.7^\circ\text{C}$ across all SSPs and IAMs considered. Under the more lenient mitigation scenario (net-zero by 2100), global temperatures are projected to rise to between $3^\circ\text{C}$ and $3.7^\circ\text{C}$ by 2100. Additionally, the social cost of carbon is estimated to increase from approximately USD 30--50 in 2025 to USD 250--400 in 2100. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.11721 |
| By: | Konstantinos Chatziandreou; Sven Karbach |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates optimal execution strategies in intraday energy markets through a mutually exciting Hawkes process model. Calibrated to data from the German intraday electricity market, the model effectively captures key empirical features, including intra-session volatility, distinct intraday market activity patterns, and the Samuelson effect as gate closure approaches. By integrating a transient price impact model with a bivariate Hawkes process to model the market order flow, we derive an optimal trading trajectory for energy companies managing large volumes, accounting for the specific trading patterns in these markets. A back-testing analysis compares the proposed strategy against standard benchmarks such as Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) and Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP), demonstrating substantial cost reductions across various hourly trading products in intraday energy markets. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.10282 |
| By: | Mbate, Michael; Fall, El Hadji |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between financial inclusion and energy access, leveraging micro-level survey data from Kenya (2016–2018) and employing propensity score matching to establish causal linkages. The analysis reveals that financial inclusion significantly enhances energy access, with distinct variations across financial institutions and energy types. Financial inclusion operates through three critical mechanisms: increasing households’ willingness to pay for energy, alleviating upfront connection costs via flexible payment schemes, and enabling seamless energy-related transactions through digital platforms. These findings underscore the importance of inclusive financial policies and the role of formal and informal financial institutions as intermediaries in addressing energy poverty. |
| Keywords: | digital platforms; energy access; energy costs; financial inclusion; propensity score matching; willingness to pay |
| JEL: | Q40 O13 G21 N27 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127538 |
| By: | Aïd, René; Bonesini, Ofelia; Callegaro, Giorgia; Campi, Luciano |
| Abstract: | We frame dynamic persuasion in a partial observation stochastic control Leader-Follower game with an ergodic criterion. The Receiver controls the dynamics of a multidimensional unobserved state process. Information is provided to the Receiver through a device designed by the Sender that generates the observation process. The commitment of the Sender is enforced. We develop this approach in the case where all dynamics are linear and the preferences of the Receiver are linear-quadratic. We prove a verification theorem for the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the HJB equation satisfied by the Receiver's value function. An extension to the case of persuasion of a mean field of interacting Receivers is also provided. We illustrate this approach in two applications: the provision of information to electricity consumers with a smart meter designed by an electricity producer; the information provided by carbon footprint accounting rules to companies engaged in a best-in-class emissions reduction effort. In the first application, we link the benefits of information provision to the mispricing of electricity production. In the latter, we show that even in the absence of information cost, it might be optimal for the regulator to blur information available to firms to prevent them from coordinating on a higher level of carbon footprint to reduce their cost of reaching a below average emission target. |
| Keywords: | persuasion; filtering; ergodic control; Stackelberg games; mean field games; smart meters; carbon footprint |
| JEL: | C61 C73 D82 D83 Q51 |
| Date: | 2025–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127889 |
| By: | Sager, Lutz; Singer, Gregor |
| Abstract: | We assess the U.S. Clean Air Act standards for fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅). Using high resolution data, we find that the 2005 regulation reduced PM₂.₅ levels by 0.4μg/m³ over five years, with larger effects in more polluted areas. Standard difference-in-differences overstates these effects by a factor of three because time trends differ by baseline pollution, a bias we overcome with three alternative approaches. We show that the regulation contributed to narrowing Urban-Rural and Black-White PM₂.₅ exposure disparities, but less than difference-in-differences suggest. Pollution damages capitalized into house prices, on the other hand, appear larger than previously thought when leveraging regulatory variation. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121984 |
| By: | Dante B. Canlas (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman); Karl Robert L. Jandoc (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the implications of renewing Meralco’s electricity distribution franchise, which was recently extended for another 25 years. Several unresolved competition and regulatory issues challenge the alignment of this extension with the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) of 2001. Key concerns include Meralco’s dominant market position, cross-ownership with generation companies, potential franchise creep, and its influence in the retail market. The paper advocates for structural reforms such as competitive franchise auctions, stricter cross-ownership limitations, and the possible division of Meralco’s service areas to promote market efficiency and consumer welfare. It also proposes granting the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) the authority to oversee franchise bidding and to enforce more rigorous monitoring of market behavior. The findings emphasize that automatic renewal without reforms risks entrenching monopolistic practices and foregoing opportunities for improving transparency, competition, and efficiency in the electricity distribution sector. |
| Keywords: | Electricity Distribution; Franchise Regulation; Competition Policy |
| JEL: | L94 L51 L41 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202502 |
| By: | Dominguez, Alvaro; Li, Jiaqi; Mendez, Carlos |
| Abstract: | Relying on a novel satellite dataset, we examine the spatial distribution of air pollution, specifically PM2.5, and income across 285 Chinese prefectural and above-level cities. A static spatial dependence analysis reveals the locations of high-value clusters (hot spots) and low-value clusters (cold spots), highlighting a strong negative assosiation between income and air pollution. Then, through dynamic spatial clustering techniques, we study the intertemporal relationship between air pollution and income and find a polarization effect between different regions. Our integrated approach demonstrates how these analyses complement each other in identifying regions where policies to enhance air standards can improve the population's quality of life. |
| Keywords: | Air Pollution, China, Local Indicators of Spatial Association |
| JEL: | C15 O33 P11 P18 Q42 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000084 |
| By: | Lucas W. Davis; Jing Li; Katalin Springel |
| Abstract: | The prospect for electric vehicles (EVs) as a climate change solution hinges on their widespread adoption across political lines. This paper uses county-level data to show that from 2012-2023, about half of all new EV registrations in the U.S. went to the 10% most Democratic counties. This correlation remains largely stable over time, though EV trucks show a lower correlation than other EV types. We also conducted a survey, finding no difference in the ability of Democrats and Republicans to identify EVs. Overall, our results suggest that barriers to widespread U.S. EV adoption may be greater than anticipated. |
| JEL: | D12 H23 Q48 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33591 |
| By: | Katerina Fotova Čiković (University North, Croatia); Damira Keček (University North, Croatia); Violeta Cvetkoska (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics - Skopje) |
| Abstract: | The main objective of this study is a systematisation of relevant published scientific papers on green finance and green transition economy published in the renowned scientific databases Scopus and Web of Science. For this purpose, PRISMA guidelines have been applied. Scientific databases were surveyed with the keywords "green finance" and "green transition", with an emphasis on economy and business-related studies. Areas of application of green finance and literature related to green transition are identified and presented, and in this way, trends over the years, publication year, types of documents, and, most importantly, research gaps are illuminated to provide guidelines for future work. |
| Keywords: | Green finance, Green transition, Systematic literature review, PRISMA |
| JEL: | E44 Q01 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2024:i:5:p:264-273 |
| By: | Calel, Raphael; Dechezlepretre, Antoine; Venmans, Frank |
| Abstract: | Carbon markets have emerged in recent decades as one of the most important tools for curbing industrial greenhouse gas emissions, but they present a number of novel enforcement challenges as compared to more conventional pollution regulations. To shed light on the practical issues involved in policing carbon markets, this study presents the first comprehensive analysis of the EU Emissions Trading System, a single programme that was policed by up to 31 different national regulators. Since 2006, 98.8% of installations in the EU ETS have complied with the regulation according to official data. The observed non-compliance should have resulted in €13 billion in total fines, but only €2.1 billion appear to have been collected. More generally, variation in the probability and severity of fines across national jurisdictions and time explain just one-tenth of the variation in compliance rates. This pattern of high rates of compliance coupled with low rates of enforcement is known in the literature as ‘Harrington’s paradox’. Meanwhile, other enforcement strategies that have been pointed to as resolutions to Harrington’s paradox in other applications, such as ‘naming and shaming’, appear to have had little discernible effect. Therefore, resolving Harrington’s paradox in the context of cap and trade regulation remains a fruitful area for future research. |
| Keywords: | pollution control; compliance; enforcement; cap-and-trade |
| JEL: | Q50 Q52 C14 |
| Date: | 2025–03–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127242 |
| By: | Dominguez, Alvaro |
| Abstract: | We investigate the spatial distribution of air pollutants in Japan, South Korea, and China for the year 2021. Our analysis utilizes satellite data on fine particulate matter at the municipal/county level, along with population density, vegetation difference, and night lights. Using dependence analysis and a clustering method to classify municipalities and counties based on geographical and similar attributes, we delineate distinct clusters within each country. Furthermore, through this spatial examination, we identify consistent positive correlations between air pollution and economic activity in each country. These methods allow us to detect areas where targeted policies can effectively enhance air quality for the population. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, Japan, South Korea, China, Spatial analysis |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000199 |
| By: | Kimberly A. Clausing; Jonathan M. Colmer; Allan Hsiao; Catherine Wolfram |
| Abstract: | We study carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) policies, as currently being implemented by the EU and UK. Policy discussions have cited three motivations and one concern. CBAMs can improve domestic competitiveness in regulated markets, reduce emissions leakage to unregulated markets, and encourage other countries to tax carbon. But CBAMs may particularly disadvantage lower-income trading partners. We evaluate these forces with a quantitative equilibrium model and plant-level data on aluminum and steel production worldwide. Our data cover the most emissions-intensive and heavily traded sectors targeted in the first phase of EU and UK implementation. We find that CBAMs can effectively boost competitiveness, curb leakage, and encourage regulation, while also avoiding disproportionate impacts on lower-income countries. |
| JEL: | F13 H23 O19 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33723 |
| By: | Artikova, Aziza; Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Khamidov, Imomjon; Primov, Abdulla |
| Abstract: | Kazakhstan represents one of the largest economies in the Central Asian region. Over recent years, Kazakhstan has experienced a rise in temperature and pollution levels due to its overreliance on fossil fuels in energy industries. The rise in temperature and pollution levels has contributed to the rise of extreme weather conditions, including floods, and the increase in health issues and mortality rates. This working paper analyses the current condition in the Oskemen region of Kazakhstan in terms of air pollution indicators. The manuscript also provides related consequences and solutions to the current environmental problems in the region. |
| Keywords: | Environment, Economic analysis, Central Asia |
| JEL: | F64 N5 O1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:316141 |
| By: | Liam Welsh; Udit Grover; Sebastian Jaimungal |
| Abstract: | Climate change is a major threat to the future of humanity, and its impacts are being intensified by excess man-made greenhouse gas emissions. One method governments can employ to control these emissions is to provide firms with emission limits and penalize any excess emissions above the limit. Excess emissions may also be offset by firms who choose to invest in carbon reducing and capturing projects. These projects generate offset credits which can be submitted to a regulating agency to offset a firm's excess emissions, or they can be traded with other firms. In this work, we characterize the finite-agent Nash equilibrium for offset credit markets. As computing Nash equilibria is an NP-hard problem, we utilize the modern reinforcement learning technique Nash-DQN to efficiently estimate the market's Nash equilibria. We demonstrate not only the validity of employing reinforcement learning methods applied to climate themed financial markets, but also the significant financial savings emitting firms may achieve when abiding by the Nash equilibria through numerical experiments. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.11258 |
| By: | Markus Dertwinkel-Kalt; Christoph Feldhaus; Axel Ockenfels; Matthias Sutter |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence in line with the illusion of moral superiority, a phenomenon that individuals perceive themselves to be more morally motivated than others. We analyze survey data collected during the 2022/23 energy crisis in Germany to investigate individuals' and others' motivations to reduce gas consumption, including both financial and non-financial (or ‘moral’) motives. Across two studies, we find evidence for the illusion of moral superiority: participants, on average, attribute stronger moral motives to their own savings compared to those of others. |
| Keywords: | moral behavior, moral superiority, energy crisis. |
| JEL: | H41 D01 D02 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11837 |
| By: | Frondel, Manuel; Gerster, Andreas; Hiemann, Philipp; Kaestner, Kathrin; Pahle, Michael; Singhal, Puja; Schwarz, Antonia |
| Abstract: | Im Sommer 2023 fand die dritte Erhebung des im Rahmen des BMBF-geförderten Kopernikus-Projekts Ariadne etablierten Wärme- und Wohnen-Panels unter ca. 15.000 Haushalten statt. Beim Wärmeund Wohnen-Panel werden Informationen zum Gebäudebestand und dem Endenergiebedarf mit den sozioökonomischen Charakteristika der in den Gebäuden wohnenden Haushalte verknüpft. Dieser Beitrag fasst die wesentlichen Ergebnisse der dritten Erhebung zusammen. Ein Schwerpunkt lag auf der Umsetzung von zwölf konkreten Energiesparmaßnahmen, die den Befragten in der zweiten Erhebung genannt wurden, damit sie sich gegen die im Winter 2022 drohende Gasmangellage und die hohen Energiepreise wappnen konnten. In der dritten Erhebung wurde danach gefragt, welche dieser zwölf Maßnahmen, zu denen das Ausschalten der Heizung bei Abwesenheit und das Entlüften der Heizkörper zählten, die Befragten tatsächlich umgesetzt haben. Es zeigte sich eine starke Diskrepanz zwischen dem Vorhaben und der tatsächlichen Umsetzung. So hatten 80, 3 % der Befragten die Verringerung der Raumtemperatur über Nacht geplant, aber 42, 0 % von denen, die dies vorhatten, haben diese Maßnahme laut eigenen Angaben nicht umgesetzt 1 . Einen weiteren Schwerpunkt bildeten die Meinungen zum während der Befragung stark diskutierten Gebäudeenergiegesetz. So wurden die Teilnehmenden unter anderem zu ihrer Akzeptanz eines Einbauverbots neuer Gas- und Ölheizungen ab dem Jahr 2024 befragt. Ein solches Einbauverbot lehnte die überwältigende Mehrheit der Teilnehmenden ab. Da die Wärmepumpe als die Heizungstechnologie der Zukunft angesehen wird, wurden die Wärmepumpenbesitzer nach ihrer Zufriedenheit mit dieser Heiztechnologie befragt. Es zeigte sich, dass rund 20 % der über 1.000 mit einer Wärmepumpe heizenden Haushalte damit eher oder sehr unzufrieden sind. Als Grund wird am häufigsten ein stark angestiegener Stromverbrauch in Folge der Wärmepumpennutzung angegeben. |
| Abstract: | In the summer of 2023, the third survey of around 15, 000 households was conducted as part of the Ariadne heating and housing panel, which was established as part of the BMBF-funded Kopernikus project. The heating and housing panel combines information on the building stock and final energy demand with the socio-economic characteristics of the households living in the buildings. This article summarizes the main results of the third survey. One focus was on the implementation of twelve specific energy-saving measures that were mentioned to the respondents in the second survey so that they could arm themselves against the impending gas shortage and high energy prices in the winter of 2022. In the third survey, respondents were asked which of these twelve measures, which included switching off the heating when they were away and venting radiators, they had actually implemented. There was a strong discrepancy between the intention and the actual implementation. For example, 80.3% of respondents had planned to reduce the room temperature overnight, but 42.0% of those who had planned to do so said they had not implemented this measure 1. Another focus was on opinions on the Building Energy Act, which was the subject of much discussion during the survey. Among other things, participants were asked about their acceptance of a ban on the installation of new gas and oil heating systems from 2024. The overwhelming majority of participants rejected such a ban on installation. As the heat pump is seen as the heating technology of the future, heat pump owners were asked about their satisfaction with this heating technology. It emerged that around 20% of the more than 1, 000 households heating with a heat pump are somewhat or very dissatisfied with it. The most common reason given was a sharp increase in electricity consumption as a result of heat pump use. |
| Keywords: | Heizkosten, Modernisierungsrate, Energieeffizienz |
| JEL: | D12 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwimat:316440 |
| By: | Nafisa Lohawala; Mohammad Arshad Rahman |
| Abstract: | The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is considered critical to achieving climate goals, yet it hinges on consumer interest. This study explores how public intent to purchase EVs relates to four unexamined factors: exposure to EV information, perceptions of EVs' environmental benefits, views on government climate policy, and confidence in future EV infrastructure; while controlling for prior EV ownership, political affiliation, and demographic characteristics (e.g., age, gender, education, and geographic location). We utilize data from three nationally representative opinion polls conducted by the Pew Research Center between 2021 and 2023, and employ Bayesian techniques to estimate the ordinal probit and ordinal quantile models. Results from ordinal probit show that respondents who are well-informed about EVs, perceive them as environmentally beneficial, or are confident in development of charging stations are more likely to express strong interest in buying an EV, with covariate effects--a metric rarely reported in EV research--of 10.2, 15.5, and 19.1 percentage points, respectively. In contrast, those skeptical of government climate initiatives are more likely to express no interest, by more than 10 percentage points. Prior EV ownership exhibits the highest covariate effect (ranging from 19.0 to 23.1 percentage points), and the impact of most demographic variables is consistent with existing studies. The ordinal quantile models demonstrate significant variation in covariate effects across the distribution of EV purchase intent, offering insights beyond the ordinal probit model. This article is the first to use quantile modeling to reveal how covariate effects differ significantly throughout the spectrum of EV purchase intent. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.09854 |
| By: | Alexander C. Abajian; Tamma Carleton; Kyle C. Meng; Olivier Deschenes |
| Abstract: | Many behavioral responses to climate change are carbon-intensive, raising concerns that adaptation may cause additional warming. The sign and magnitude of this feedback depend on how increased emissions from cooling balance against reduced emissions from heating across space and time. We present an empirical approach that forecasts the effect of future adaptive energy use on global average temperature over the 21st century. We find energy-based adaptation will lower global mean surface temperature in 2099 by 0.12 degrees Celsius (0.07 degrees Celsius) relative to baseline projections under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5) and avoid 1.8 (0.6) trillion USD ($2019) in damages. Energy-based adaptation lowers business-as-usual emissions for 85% of countries, reducing the mitigation required to meet their unilateral Nationally Determined Contributions under the UNFCCC by 20% on average. These findings indicate that while business-as-usual adaptive energy use is unlikely to accelerate warming, it raises important implications for countries’ existing mitigation commitments. |
| JEL: | Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33531 |
| By: | Dominguez, Alvaro |
| Abstract: | We study the spatial distribution of air pollutants in Honshu and Kyushu, before and after the Fukushima incident in 2011. For this, we use satellite data at the municipal level of fine particulate matter and ozone concentrations, along with population density, accessibility to cities, and night lights. We rely on dependence analysis and an algorithm to endogenously partition and classify municipalities into different clusters, based on their geographic andsimilar attributes, for the period under study. From the spatial analysis we are able to observe the specific locations of the hot spots (high-value clusters) and cold spots (low value clusters). These clusters reveal high positive correlations between air pollution and economic activity, throughout the years that we study. Furthermore, the regionalization analysis we perform partitions Honshu and Kyushu into different geographical regions that are intertemporally robust, allowing us to detect locations where targeting policies can improve the air quality of the population. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, Japan, Regionalization, Spatial analysis |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agi:wpaper:02000198 |
| By: | Carolina Castaldi; Milad Abbasiharofteh; Sergio Petralia |
| Abstract: | The sustainability transition is high on the European agenda, with an emerging understanding that focusing on green technologies is not enough to achieve disruptive sustainability. An overall green transformation of current systems of production and consumption also requires market formation processes whereby green markets become viable economic opportunities for regions to specialize in. In this study, we draw on insights from evolutionary economic geography and geography of transitions to understand how regions develop green market specializations. To do so, we investigate two key sets of factors. First, we consider the evolutionary capability development process whereby new specializations emerge from existing related regional capabilities, in a path-dependent way. Second, we account for green public procurement initiatives to capture path-creation efforts in the form of deliberate regional policy directed towards green market formation. Our empirical analysis focuses on European regions in the period 2000-2020. We employ original trademark-based metrics to capture regional specializations in green markets and combine them with patent data to construct relatedness linkages between technologies and markets. Our results reveal that only a few regions have been able to develop specializations in green markets. We find that both prior capabilities in related technological domains and markets are positively associated with the emergence of these regional specializations. In addition, we also find that green public procurement is positively associated with the emergence of regional green market specializations. Our findings bear relevance for policy and research alike. |
| Keywords: | sustainability; regions; green markets; relatedness; public procurement; trademarks; patents |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2512 |
| By: | Wang, Hanyi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines carbon leakage through supply chain recalibration in response to European carbon policies. Using input-output data and a high-frequency identification approach for carbon policy shocks, this paper investigates whether stringent carbon regulations in Europe affect the imports of carbon-intensive inputs from major emerging economies lacking similar policies. The findings reveal a temporary increase in the rate of change of imports from emerging countries relative to all inputs in the carbon-intensive sectors following carbon policy shocks, with effects peaking after two years before dissipating. While not directly quantifying emissions transfer, this study suggests some evidence of short-term input substitution patterns consistent with carbon leakage through international supply chains. |
| Keywords: | trade & investment, climate change |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:316405 |
| By: | Goran Hristovski (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics - Skopje); Kiril Jovanovski (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics - Skopje); Gjorgji Gockov (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics - Skopje); Elena Naumovska (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics - Skopje) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical analysis of the dynamic relationships between the Macedonian Stock Exchange Index and a set of macroeconomic variables including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), central bank bills interest rate, interest rates on deposits, inflation, and crude oil prices. Utilizing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, we examine the short-term and long-term impacts of these variables on the stock market from Q1 2009 to Q3 2023. Our ARDL Bounds Test results confirm the presence of a cointegrated relationship, indicating that the stock market and macroeconomic variables are mutually influenced over the long term. In the long run, increases in GDP positively impact the Macedonian stock exchange market, while rising central bank interest rates exert a negative effect on the MBI10 index. While, in the short term, only changes in oil prices and the stock index itself are found to have significant impacts on the MBI-10, with the error correction term indicating a swift adjustment to equilibrium after short-term shocks. This study contributes to the literature by providing nuanced insights into the macroeconomic determinants of stock market performance in North Macedonia, offering implications for policymakers and investors regarding the critical factors influencing market dynamics. The findings underscore the importance of economic growth for stock market vitality, the critical role of monetary policy, and the sensitivity of the stock market to oil price volatility, emphasizing the need for strategic economic policies to foster a stable and growth-conducive market environment.The main objective of this study is a systematisation of relevant published scientific papers on green finance and green transition economy published in the renowned scientific databases Scopus and Web of Science. For this purpose, PRISMA guidelines have been applied. Scientific databases were surveyed with the keywords "green finance" and "green transition", with an emphasis on economy and business-related studies. Areas of application of green finance and literature related to green transition are identified and presented, and in this way, trends over the years, publication year, types of documents, and, most importantly, research gaps are illuminated to provide guidelines for future work. |
| Keywords: | Macedonian Stock Exchange Index, Macroeconomic Variables, ARDL Model |
| JEL: | G10 E44 C22 |
| Date: | 2024–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2024:i:5:p:274-286 |
| By: | Nguyen-Tien, Viet; Elliott, Robert J.R.; Strobl, Eric; Zhang, Chengyu |
| Abstract: | Knowing how long the average vehicle remains roadworthy before being scrapped is a crucial input into life cycle assessment (LCA) and total cost of ownership (TCO) studies of different vehicle powertrains. This study leverages a dataset of over 300 million MOT records from 2005 to 2022 for over 30 million vehicles registered in Great Britain and uses parametric survival analysis with interval-censored data to examine the longevity of various powertrains under real usage conditions. Our findings reveal that (plugin) hybrid electric vehicles have the longest expected longevity in terms of years and mileage, both of which are about 50% higher than those of an average fleet vehicle. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs), while initially showing lower reliability, have benefited from rapid technological improvements such that the latest BEVs in our sample match the lifespan of petrol vehicles despite being used more intensively. Longevity is also impacted by engine size, location, and make of vehicle. The results provide parameter estimates that can be used to update TCO and LCA models and also shed light on EV diffusion patterns, fleet replacement strategies, and end-of-life treatment planning, including the increasingly important debate around EV battery recycling and second-life options. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicles; survival analysis; total cost of ownership; life cycle assessment |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126759 |
| By: | Adam Smerigan; Rui Shi |
| Abstract: | Transitioning to green energy technologies requires more sustainable and secure rare earth elements (REE) production. The current production of rare earth oxides (REOs) is completed by an energy and chemically intensive process from the mining of REE ores. Investigations into a more sustainable supply of REEs from secondary sources, such as toxic phosphogypsum (PG) waste, is vital to securing the REE supply chain. However, conventional solvent extraction to recover dilute REEs from PG waste is inefficient and has high environmental impact. In this work, we propose a treatment train for the recovery of REEs from PG which includes a bio-inspired adsorptive separation to generate a stream of pure REEs, and we assess its financial viability and environmental impacts under uncertainties through a "probabilistic sustainability" framework integrating life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA). Results show that in 87% of baseline scenario simulations, the internal rate of return (IRR) exceeded 15%, indicating that this system has the potential to be profitable. However, environmental impacts of the system are mixed. Specifically, the proposed system outperforms conventional systems in ecosystem quality and resource depletion, but has higher human health impacts. Scenario analysis shows that the system is profitable at capacities larger than 100, 000 kg*hr-1*PG for PG with REE content above 0.5 wt%. The most dilute PG sources (0.02-0.1 wt% REE) are inaccessible using the current process scheme (limited by the cost of acid and subsequent neutralization) requiring further examination of new process schemes and improvements in technological performance. Overall, this study evaluates the sustainability of a first-of-its-kind REE recovery process from PG and uses these results to provide clear direction for advancing sustainable REE recovery from secondary sources. |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.10495 |
| By: | Simona Kovachevska Stefanova (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics - Skopje); Kiril Jovanovski (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics - Skopje) |
| Abstract: | To achieve the international targets for limiting carbon emissions the Emissions Trading System of the European Union (EU ETS) was implemented. Considering the crucial role of this system in the process of decarbonization of the economy, it is essential to investigate whether and to what extent there is an impact on the capital market. To investigate this, the dataset of 38 German companies from 2013 until 2020 is used. The data set consists of paid allowances, free allowances, stock prices, return on assets (ROA) ratio, and dividend payouts. The study uses three econometric methods for panels including the pooled ordinary least squares, the fixed effects model, and the random effects model. In addition, the F-test and Hausman tests are used, to determine which method is more appropriate. The results show that the ordinary least square (OLS) model and fixed effect model are most suitable for the stock price estimation and confirm the negative impact of free allowances on stock prices. A random effect is considered for the ROA and dividend estimation, confirming the negative impact of free allowances on the ROA ratio and the positive on the dividend distributions. |
| Keywords: | EU ETS, Stock price, Dividends, Return on assets, Allowances |
| JEL: | G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2024:i:5:p:287-296 |
| By: | Julianna Sterling; Missaka Warusawitharana; Xiangyu Zhang |
| Abstract: | This note examines the energy import dependency of the European Union over time. This issue has risen in salience following recent developments and the ongoing economic challenges faced by many European countries. |
| Date: | 2025–04–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-04-16 |
| By: | Xu, Lei |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain technologies in the smart transportation infrastructure of Shenzhen between 2024 and 2025. It analyzes Shenzhen's electrification of public transport, integration of AI for traffic signal optimization, and deployment of AI-enhanced passenger safety systems. The paper also examines the role of blockchain in ensuring secure, decentralized data exchange, and energy trading protocols for electric vehicles. Additionally, challenges such as data interoperability, security, and ethical governance are discussed. The findings provide insights into how emerging technologies can transform urban mobility and establish a replicable model for global smart city development. |
| Date: | 2025–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:yn67b_v1 |
| By: | Andrea Lanteri; Adriano A. Rampini |
| Abstract: | We analyze the adoption of clean technology by heterogeneous firms subject to financing constraints. In the model, capital goods differ in terms of their energy needs and age. In equilibrium, cleaner and newer capital requires more financial resources. Therefore, financial constraints induce an endogenous pattern in clean technology adoption: Financially constrained, smaller firms optimally invest in dirtier and older capital than unconstrained, larger firms. The model is consistent with the empirical patterns of technology adoption we document using data on commercial shipping fleets. We use a calibrated version of our model to simulate the aggregate transition dynamics to cleaner technology. |
| JEL: | E22 G31 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33545 |
| By: | Nicol\`o Barbieri; Kerstin H\"otte; Peter Persoon |
| Abstract: | Green patents are a key indicator to track technological efforts aimed at fighting climate change. Using an original dataset that merges different Patstat releases, we identify three mechanisms that may bias green patent statistics, potentially leading to contradictory findings. First, patent reclassifications due to updates in (green) classification codes result in an 9.2\% increase in the number of green patents when using the most recent classification structure. Second, delays in the adoption of the Cooperative Patent Classification (CPC) system introduce regional biases, as approximately 10\% of green patents from late-adopting countries remain undetected in less recent versions of the database. Third, we provide evidence that quality thresholds used to identify high-value inventions significantly shape observed trends in green patenting. Analyzing these mechanisms, our paper reveals that in many studies a substantial number of green patents is systematically overlooked, with the strongest effects observed for recent years and patents originating from Asian patent offices. These findings lead to relevant policy implications. Our results indicate not only that the global rate of green innovation has accelerated, but also that its epicenter has shifted, with an increasing share of green patents originating from emerging technological leaders, particularly in Asia. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.21310 |
| By: | Oto-Peralías, Daniel (Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Cuberes, David; Lacuesta, Aitor; Moreno, Carlos |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between land ownership concentration and the likelihood of hosting large green energy facilities, specifically mega-photovoltaic (PV) plants, defined as those exceeding 50 hectares. Focusing on Spain, we find that municipalities with a higher proportion of agricultural land concentrated in large farms are significantly more likely to accommodate mega PV plants. This effect remains robust after accounting for key factors influencing PV deployment, including terrain ruggedness, solar potential, and proximity to transmission lines and urban centers. To further neutralize unobserved factors that jointly influence land concentration and PV plant location, we leverage cadastral (parcel) data to conduct an intra-municipal analysis at the 0.5×0.5 km grid-cell level. Our findings reveal that grid cells with larger cadastral parcels have a substantially higher probability of being part of a mega PV facility. A simple theoretical model explains this pattern by highlighting the coordination challenges faced by small landowners. Unlike large ones, fragmented landholders struggle to meet developers’ land requirements, which are necessary to cover fixed project costs. Consistent with this mechanism, we also show that areas with irrigated agriculture are less likely to host mega PV plants and exhibit more unequal distributions of plant locations by land size. Finally, we provide external validity by confirming a similar positive association between mega PV plants and land concentration across U.S. counties. These findings underscore the implications of land inequality for the spatial distribution of renewable energy projects, shedding light on the limited local benefits of such investments and the growing opposition from rural communities. |
| Date: | 2025–03–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:hakt5_v2 |
| By: | Döttling, Robin; Lam, Adrian (University of Pittsburgh) |
| Abstract: | We document that the stock prices of firms with higher carbon emissions respond more to monetary policy shocks around Federal Open Market Committee announcements. Theoretically, we show that greater emissions-reduction needs can explain high-emission firms’ heightened sensitivity to monetary policy. Consistent with this channel, we find that (i) the valuation results are stronger among capital-intensive and highly levered firms and (ii) high-emission firms reduce emissions relatively faster on average, but disproportionately slow down these efforts when monetary policy is restrictive. We also examine bond price responses to monetary policy shocks to assess the relevance of differential discount rate effects. |
| Date: | 2025–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:kqdar_v2 |
| By: | Reid B. Taylor; Erich Muehlegger |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of competition on incumbent firm pricing by using high frequency price data and the precise geographic location for all gas stations in California. Using an event study design, we find that the entry of a new station is associated with a 2.5 cent decrease in prices at incumbent stores, which equates to a 7% reduction in estimated retail markups. The effects are immediate, persistent, and show no sign of deterrence or limit pricing behavior. In contrast, nearby exit results in precisely estimated null effects on prices with no evidence of predatory pricing in the lead up to the station departure. The results are consistent across all fuel blends and dissipate with station distance. Finally, we explore the asymmetric effects, showing that the difference cannot be attributed to difference in branding, proximity to highway, or data quality idiosyncrasies, although we find suggestive evidence that exit tends to happen in more competitive markets and amongst less heavily trafficked stations. |
| JEL: | L1 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33569 |
| By: | Karan Bhuwalka; Hari Ramachandran; Swati Narasimhan; Adrian Yao; Julia Frohmann; Leopold Peiseler; William Chueh; Adam Boies; Steven J. Davis; Sally Benson |
| Abstract: | The increasing demand for graphite in batteries, particularly for electric vehicles, has led to concerns around supply chain security. Currently, over 92% of global anode material is produced in China, posing a geopolitical risk for other countries reliant on graphite supply for domestic industries. This paper assesses the costs of producing battery-grade graphite (natural and synthetic) in the US and China using process-based cost models. We find that production costs in the US significantly exceed those in China due to higher capital intensity and input costs. Our analysis reveals that a majority of modeled projects in the US are not competitive at current market prices. We identify key cost drivers, including capital costs, economies of scale, and input material prices, and explore pathways to improve the competitiveness of US graphite production, such as supportive financing and process innovation directions. The analysis of conventional graphite production costs at scale also informs ceiling costs for alternative, promising pathways such as methane pyrolysis and catalytic graphitization. This study highlights the challenges and trade-offs in building a diversified graphite supply chain and informs policy and investment decisions. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.21521 |
| By: | Ravi Jagannathan; Iwan Meier; Valeri Sokolovski |
| Abstract: | Between 2016 and 2023, the top 10% of carbon-emission-intensive firms (heavy emitters) accounted for over 90% of all Scope 1 emissions from U.S. public companies. We observe that about 35% of the market capitalization of ‘Value’ portfolios, compared to 5% of ‘Growth’ portfolios, regardless of how Value and Growth are defined, was comprised of heavy emitters. When we split the Big Value portfolio into heavy- and light-emitter stocks, we find that these two portfolios had similar realized (raw and risk-adjusted) returns and expected returns, as measured by Implied Cost of Capital, suggesting limited incremental compensation for transition risk. We also find that Big Growth low-emitter stocks consistently had lower expected returns than Big Value low-emitter stocks, with the spread widening in recent years, despite similar emission levels. This indicates that factors beyond climate concerns are necessary to fully explain the superior performance of Growth stocks relative to Value stocks over the past decade. |
| JEL: | G1 G11 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33535 |
| By: | Cremer, Helmuth; Borsenberger, Claire; Joram, Denis; Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie; Malavolti, Estelle |
| Abstract: | The concept of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) has evolved since Milton Friedman’s 1970 assertion that a business’s sole responsibility is profit. Today, global frameworks like the UN Global Compact and EU regulations emphasize corporate accountability, particularly regarding social and environmental impacts. Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) has become central in discussions of firm behavior, governance, and public goods provision. CSR however varies across firms. Some adopt basic strategic CSR (b-CSR), considering social and environmental issues only to the extent that they affect consumer demand and profitability. Others practice environmentally committed CSR (e-CSR), internalizing the full social cost of emissions. A few pursue fully committed CSR (w-CSR), aiming to maximize overall social welfare. The paper analyzes CSR’s effects on firm behavior through economic modeling. It first examines a single firm producing CO2 emissions, where reducing emissions increases costs but appeals to environmentally conscious consumers. Three firm types—b-CSR, e-CSR, and w-CSR—are considered. The study then extends to a competitive market with two firms engaged in Cournot competition. It examines scenarios where firms have different CSR commitments, analyzing how competition, emissions, and profits are affected. Finally, the paper compares these outcomes to an ideal scenario where firms are regulated to maximize social welfare. |
| Keywords: | Motivation and sustainability of CSR under competition; mission oriented; firms, consumers’ environmental awareness and profit maximization; differentiated duopoly; duopoly. |
| JEL: | H23 L13 L31 G50 |
| Date: | 2025–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:130533 |
| By: | Block, Simon; Weber, Nora; Viebahn, Peter; Sievering, Christoph; Arnold, Karin; Witte, Katja; Blum, Maximilian; Kling, Alexander; Schmidt, Constanze; Overberg, Moritz; Zeiss, Christoph |
| Abstract: | In diesem Zukunftsimpuls beleuchten Forschende des Wuppertal Instituts das geplante Kohlenstoffmanagement in Deutschland umfassend und praxisnah: Nach einer kompakten Einführung in das Thema - inklusive Lessons Learned aus früheren Debatten - legen sie eine grundlegende Einschätzung relevanter Aspekte rund um den CMS-Prozess vor. Im Hauptteil ihrer Arbeit formulieren sie Handlungsempfehlungen für fünf aus Sicht des Wuppertal Instituts zentrale Bereiche des Carbon Managements: die Entwicklung der CO2-Infrastruktur, das Erschließen von sicheren CO2-Speichern, die Anwendung von CCU (Carbon Capture and Use) als ergänzende Option zu CCS, die Akzeptanz von CCS in der Gesellschaft sowie die Verknüpfung der CMS mit der Langfriststrategie Negativemissionen. Für jeden der fünf Bereiche beschreiben sie die jeweilige Ausgangslage sowie spezifische Herausforderungen und Hemmnisse. Auf dieser Basis formulieren sie konkrete Empfehlungen an die Politik, die bei der Umsetzung der CMS zwingend berücksichtigt werden sollten. |
| Abstract: | In this "Zukunftsimpuls", researchers from the Wuppertal Institute shed light on the planned carbon management in Germany in a comprehensive and practice-oriented manner: After a compact introduction to the topic - including lessons learnt from previous debates - they present a fundamental assessment of relevant aspects relating to the German Carbon Management Strategy (CMS) process. In the main part of their publication, they formulate recommendations for action in five areas of carbon management that are central from the Wuppertal Institute's perspective: the development of CO2 infrastructure, the development of safe CO2 storage facilities, the application of CCU as a complementary option to CCS, the acceptance of CCS in society and the linking of the CMS with Germany's long-term strategy for negative emissions (German: Langfriststrategie Negativemissionen). For each of the five areas, they describe the respective initial situation as well as specific challenges and obstacles. On this basis, they formulate specific recommendations for policymakers that should be taken into account when implementing the CMS. |
| Keywords: | Treibhausgas-Emissionen, CO2-Speicherung, Deutschland |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wupimp:316422 |
| By: | Snezana Ristevska-Jovanovska (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics – Skopje); Ivona Serafimovska (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics – Skopje); Irena Bogoevska-Gavrilova (Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, Faculty of Economics – Skopje) |
| Abstract: | Purpose. The purpose of this study is to examine the potential positive relationship between attitudes toward green advertising and consumer purchase intention and its influence on shaping the brand image of green products. By investigating these relationships, the research aims to provide insights into how attitudes toward green advertising can effectively drive consumer behaviour and contribute to the development of a strong, sustainable brand image. Green marketing is used as an alternative strategy to meet consumer needs and as a form of concern for environmental sustainability (Genoveva and Samukti, 2020). According to Chen and Chang (2012), green marketing also reshapes market rules by expanding product offerings and influencing nearly all of a company's activities. These include product modifications, changes in production processes, updates to product packaging, and adjustments in advertising (Ulfiah et al., 2023). Based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour by Ajzen (1991), the combination of attitudes toward behaviour, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control guides the formation of intention, and thus intention is assumed to be an antecedent of actual behaviour (Conner and Sparks, 2005). This research focuses specifically on the dimension of attitudes as the primary internal determinant guiding customer choice. By isolating this aspect, the aim is to provide a more reliable assessment of customers' internal motivations, which are crucial in understanding decision-making processes. The previous research results, as conducted by Nagar (2015), suggest that people tend to behave in ways consistent with their attitudes. Kotler et al. (2016) added that brand image is the perception and belief held by consumers, as reflected in the association embedded in consumer memory. If a product has a good image, then consumers will use the product. Researchers describe the brand image in terms of brand benefits, which are the "personal value" consumers associate with a brand, based on what they perceive the product's attributes will do for them, as noted by Nagar (2015). Alamsyah et al. (2020) suggest that increased awareness of green products can enhance a company's brand image, particularly through effective advertising strategies. In this regard, green advertising not only influences brand image but also plays a significant role in shaping consumers' intention to purchase ecological (green) products. Intention to purchase ecological products is conceptualized as a person's likelihood and willingness to give preference to products with ecological characteristics over other traditional products in one’s purchase considerations (Ali and Ahmad, 2012). In another case, Chan (2001) defines the intention to purchase this type of product as "consumers' behaviour towards a specific type of eco-friendly product to express their concern for the environment". In the context of environmentally friendly products, the basic consumer motivation can be reviewed from the information on environmentally friendly products owned by consumers (Rashid, 2009). Patel and Chugan (2015) highlighted the importance of advertisements focusing on the product's green features, as consumers are more likely to purchase items that offer personal relevance and benefits, rather than those that simply make green claims. Previous studies have confirmed that green advertising can improve consumer purchase intention (Davis, 1994; Haghjou et al., 2013; Kong et al., 2014; Alamsyah et al., 2020; Amallia et al., 2021; Chaniago and Nupus, 2021; Ramadhan et al., 2024) and affect brand image (Nagar, 2015; Chaniago and Nupus, 2021) From here, we propose the following research hypotheses: H1: Attitudes toward green advertising positively affect brand image. H2: Attitudes toward green advertising positively affect purchase intention. Design/methodology/approach. The questionnaire used in this study was adapted from Kong et al. (2014). To test the hypotheses, we employed multiple linear regression in SPSS on a sample of 69 respondents. To validate the factors as conceptualized in the literature, we assessed construct validity through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) using principal component analysis with Promax rotation. Three factors were extracted, purchase intention (4 items), green brand image (3 items), and attitudes toward green advertising (2 items), accounting for 74.680% of the variance. One item from the green advertising factor was removed due to cross-loading issues. All retained items in the EFA model exhibited standardized factor loadings above the recommended threshold of 0.5, as suggested by Hair et al. (2010). Additionally, Cronbach’s alpha coefficients for purchase intention (0.862), brand image (0.763), and green advertising (0.634) indicate strong internal reliability, with values above the 0.7 threshold recommended by Hair et al. (2010), though the green advertising coefficient, while below 0.7, is still considered acceptable according to Griethuijsen et al. (2014). Normality, linearity, and homoscedasticity were confirmed through the examination of standardized residual plots (Tabachnick and Fidell, 2012). Moreover, the variables adhered to acceptable values for VIF and Tolerance (Hair et al., 1995), and the Durbin-Watson test indicated no autocorrelation in the residuals from the regression analysis (Durbin and Watson, 1971). Findings. We created two models to apply multiple linear regression: the first model explores the relationship between attitudes toward green advertising and purchase intention, while the second model investigates the impact of attitudes toward green advertising on brand image. Both overall models are statistically significant. The R square and Adjusted R square values show that attitudes toward green advertising account for 24.1% and 22.9% of the variation in consumers’ purchase intention, respectively, and 11.5% and 10.2% of the variation in brand image. According to the p-value for both regression models, we confirm hypotheses H1 (p-value = 0.004) and H2 (p-value = 0.000). The standardized beta coefficients, as presented in Table 1, indicate that attitudes toward green advertising have the most significant positive impact on purchase intention (0.491), followed by its effect on brand image (0.339). This is supported by the findings of Davis (1994), who believes that environmentally-themed corporate advertising improves both the environmental reputation of companies and their product image, thereby increasing consumers' intent to purchase their products. According to H1 of this research, there is a significant relationship between attitudes toward green advertising and brand image, as also found in previous studies (Nagar, 2015; Chaniago and Nupus, 2021) Therefore, as mentioned in Nagar (2015), initiative by the firm in the form of green advertising, communicating its environmental concerns to the consumers is likely to spill over to the sponsor brand, leading to a positive opinion about the brand’s image, as confirmed by our results. Amallia et al. (2021) confirmed the positive relationship between green advertising and purchase intention, stating that an increased frequency of advertisements can enhance potential consumers' engagement with the ads and increase their knowledge of environmentally friendly products, influencing purchasing decisions based on advertising content. However, the results of the present study contradicted the study by Kong et al. (2014), who found that green advertising did not significantly influence green purchase intention. Instead, Kong’s research identified green corporate perception, eco-labels, and product value as the three most significant determinants of green purchase intention. Originality/value. The results provide a comprehensive understanding of how attitudes toward green advertising affect consumer behaviour and influence the intention to purchase eco-friendly products by building a positive brand image. Extensive research has been conducted to investigate the impact of certain factors on purchase intention, including green marketing, brand image, advertising, and price (Ramadhan et al., 2024); perception of green products, which is conceptualized as a multidimensional variable comprised of green corporate perception, eco-label, green advertising, green packaging, and green product value (Kong et al., 2014). Alamsyah et al. (2020) reviewed the positive correlation among green advertising, green brand image, and customer green awareness of environment-friendly products and their impacts on purchase intention, while Patel and Chugan (2015) pointed out that environmental knowledge, company image, product feature improvisation, and ethical impact are the aspects of green advertising that had positive significant influences on consumers green purchase intention. As well, some researchers have investigated the direct relationship between brand image and purchase intention (Kong et al. 2014; Ramadhan, et al., 2024), or the influence of green marketing on consumers’ purchase decisions mediated by brand image (Genoveva and Samukti, 2020; Chaniago and Nupus, 2021; Ulfiah et al., 2023;). Research has primarily focused on the impact of green advertising on purchase intention (Davis, 1994; Haghjou et al., 2013; Kong et al., 2014; Alamsyah et al., 2020; Amallia et al., 2021; Chaniago and Nupus, 2021; Ramadhan et al., 2024) or the effect of brand image on purchase intention (Kong et al., 2014; Ramadhan et al., 2024). However, there is a research gap regarding the direct influence of attitudes toward green advertising on brand image keeping in mind that the research base that has explored the relationship between green advertising and brand image is scarce (Nagar, 2015; Chaniago and Nupus, 2021). Therefore, the originality of this study is grounded in its focus on attitudes toward green advertising as a driving factor that shapes the brand image and consequently influences the purchase intention of eco-friendly products. However, further research may be conducted by examining a particular type of green advertisement, such as online advertising and social media activities. The results provide valuable insights for marketers, encouraging them to continue investing in environmental responsibility and developing effective advertising strategies for their products. Therefore, to create a favourable attitude toward eco-friendly products, more intensive marketing communications, and green advertising strategies should be employed. |
| Keywords: | Green advertising, Purchase intention, Brand image |
| JEL: | M31 |
| Date: | 2024–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2024:i:5:p:23-27 |
| By: | Francesca Larosa; Fermin Mallor; Alberto J. Conejero; Javier Garcia-Martinez; Francesco Fuso Nerini; Ricardo Vinuesa |
| Abstract: | We explore the integration of climate action and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in nationally determined contributions (NDCs), revealing persistent synergies and trade-offs across income groups. While high-income countries emphasize systemic challenges like health (SDG3) and inequality (SDG10), low-income nations prioritize the water-energy-food nexus (SDGs 6-7-12) and natural resource management (SDG15) due to vulnerabilities to climate impacts. Harnessing an innovative artificial intelligence routine, we discuss what these diverging development trajectories imply for the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for sustainable development in terms of global inequality, the climate and sustainable finance flows and multilateral governance. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.17373 |
| By: | Djedjiga Kachenoura; David CHETBOUN; Marine Lagarde,; Laurent Mélère,; Damien Serra. |
| Abstract: | In 2015, in the run-up to COP21 in Paris, the speech by Mark Carney, then Governor of the Bank of England and mandated by the G20's Financial Stability Board, made history. He warned of the importance of financial climate risks for the stability of financial institutions and the financial system as a whole. The political burden of transition was left to governments, provided it was orderly, while the responsibility for stability fell to regulators and central banks. Finance”, informed by extra-financial disclosure regimes, would drive demand as a provider of capital. These disclosure regimes were to be initiated by private players and supported by regulators. Mr. Carney feared, however, that they would lack coherence, comparability and clarity. Since then, these schemes have proliferated, covering both risks and the alignment of financial flows with the Paris Agreement. Nevertheless, this “theory of change” and the division of responsibilities between players remain unclear and ambiguous. Financial regulators need to work together to make these different regimes interoperable and clarify their objectives. What's more, compliance costs and the disconnection of certain frameworks from national realities are holding back the mobilization of funding, and may lead to the exclusion of the most vulnerable entities, a subject that has received little attention. |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2025–03–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en17673 |
| By: | Maria Garcia-Osipenko; Nicolai V. Kuminoff; Spencer Perry; Nicholas Vreugdenhil |
| Abstract: | Utilities increasingly sell electricity using complex menus of time-constant and time-varying price schedules. We study how to design such a menu to maximize social welfare in a second best environment where the marginal private and external costs of generating electricity vary over time, institutional constraints prevent mandating time-varying pricing, and consumer behavior is distorted by frictions. We develop a model of plan choice, consumption, and intertemporal substitution with time-varying marginal social costs, and estimate it using administrative data from a large utility. We provide evidence of substantial intertemporal substitution in response to time-varying price incentives, and selection across plans based on multidimensional heterogeneity. While the current menu’s time-varying plans substantially shift consumption from high-price to low-price hours, we find that they reduce social welfare. This loss is mitigated by information frictions. We show how to redesign the menu to simultaneously improve outcomes for consumers, the utility, and the environment. |
| JEL: | Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33715 |
| By: | Mundt, Juliane; Kemper, Marina |
| Abstract: | On behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection (BMWK), the ad hoc working group (AhG) "Decarbonisation of the Automotive Value Chains" of the expert group "Transformation of the Automotive Industry" (ETA) developed recommendations for action to help make PCFs more standardised and comparable. This discussion paper summarises the methodological harmonisation requirements and the resulting recommendations for action that were developed on behalf of the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) as part of the accompanying research for the AhG. |
| Keywords: | Product carbon footprint (PCF), Greenhouse gas (GHG), Harmonisation of accounting methods, Automotive industry |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hirdps:317063 |
| By: | Hochstetler, Kathryn |
| Abstract: | The idea of a “green economy” is one of the latest attempts to bridge the environment and development aims, with a focus on economic growth that makes it appealing to countries that still see a significant development gap to make up. Yet the green economy—most often studied in the Global North and made the target of explicit policy initiatives there, often with substantial public and private resources—also presents additional challenges for the diverse states and populations of the Global South. In this commentary, I sketch a research agenda on three questions that reflect those challenges: (1) To what extent are the promises of the green economy credible in the national conditions of the Global South? (2) Will the green economy reduce poverty and reach the poorest populations of the Global South? and (3) How do the green economy activities of the Global North reverberate in the Global South? |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2025–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127335 |
| By: | Mfon Akpan; Adeyemi Adebayo |
| Abstract: | Artificial Intelligence's (AI) rapid development and growth not only transformed industries but also fired up important debates about its impacts on employment, resource allocation, and the ethics involved in decision-making. It serves to understand how changes within an industry will be able to influence society with that change. Advancing AI technologies will create a dual paradox of efficiency, greater resource consumption, and displacement of traditional labor. In this context, we explore the impact of AI on energy consumption, human labor roles, and hybrid roles widespread human labor replacement. We used mixed methods involving qualitative and quantitative analyses of data identified from various sources. Findings suggest that AI increases energy consumption and has impacted human labor roles to a minimal extent, considering that its applicability is limited to some tasks that require human judgment. In this context, the |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2504.10503 |
| By: | Colmer, Jonathan; Krause, Eleanor; Lyubich, Eva; Voorheis, John |
| Abstract: | The outside options available to workers critically determine the transitional costs of labor demand shocks. Using comprehensive administrative data, we examine the worker-level effects of the decline of coal - a regionally concentrated labor demand shock that reduced employment by more than 50% between 2011 and 2021. We show that coal workers experienced very large, persistent earnings losses compared to similar workers less connected to coal. In contrast to worker-level analyses of labor demand shocks in more spatially diffuse industries, we show that non-employment is an important margin through which adjustment operates. Workers also earn substantially lower earnings when employed. Moving between industries or regions does little to mitigate losses. Instead, we observe significant increases in SSDI receipt. Our findings suggest that transitional costs are higher in regionally concentrated industries when skills do not easily transfer across sectors. |
| Keywords: | decline of coal; earnings; workers; non-employment; technological change |
| JEL: | J0 J6 Q4 |
| Date: | 2024–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126795 |
| By: | Matthew Read (Reserve Bank of Australia); Dan Zhu (Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University) |
| Abstract: | We propose algorithms for conducting Bayesian inference in structural vector autoregressions identified using sign restrictions. The key feature of our approach is a sampling step based on 'soft' sign restrictions. This step draws from a target density that smoothly penalises parameter values violating the restrictions, facilitating the use of computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. An importance-sampling step yields draws from the desired distribution conditional on the 'hard' sign restrictions. Relative to standard accept-reject sampling, the method substantially improves computational efficiency when identification is 'tight'. It can also greatly reduce the computational burden of implementing prior-robust Bayesian methods. We illustrate the broad applicability of the approach in a model of the global oil market identified using a rich set of sign, elasticity and narrative restrictions. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian inference; Markov chain Monte Carlo; oil market; sign restrictions; structural vector autoregression |
| JEL: | C32 Q35 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2025-03 |