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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Fieles-Ahmad, Omar Martin; Kvasnicka, Michael; Libet, Victor |
| Abstract: | We study whether the sharp rise in petrol prices following the bombing of Iran on 28 February 2026 affected the short-run demand for battery electric vehicles in EU-27 countries. Using monthly vehicle-registration data and fixed-effects panel regressions, we show that the petrol-price shock increased battery electric-vehicle adoption, in particular in countries with better charging infrastructure and lower charging costs. Our findings suggest that higher fossil-fuel prices can accelerate the transition towards electric mobility. |
| Abstract: | In unserer Arbeit untersuchen wir, ob der starke Anstieg der Benzinpreise nach dem Bombenangriff auf den Iran am 28. Februar 2026 die kurzfristige Nachfrage nach batteriebetriebenen Elektroautos in den 27 EU-Mitgliedsstaaten verändert hat. Anhand monatlicher Kraftfahrzeug-Zulassungsdaten und Panelregressionen mit festen Effekten zeigen wir auf, dass der Benzinpreis-Schock die Nachfrage nach batteriebetriebenen Elektroautos gesteigert hat - insbesondere in Ländern mit einer besser ausgebauten Ladeinfrastruktur und niedrigeren Ladekosten. Unsere Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass höhere Preise für fossile Brennstoffe die Transformation hin zur Elektromobilität beschleunigen. |
| Keywords: | War, oil price shock, fossil fuel prices, electric cars, mobility transition, EU 27 |
| JEL: | D12 Q42 L91 R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:342546 |
| By: | Eliseo Curcio |
| Abstract: | Interconnection queues, not electricity prices, now govern where data centers can be built, and the standard levelized-cost comparison answers a question no developer faces: it assumes a load profile, freezes the grid price while modeling the demand that moves it, and quotes busbar costs a facility cannot buy. This paper evaluates nine on-site supply technologies against a delivered grid whose price is endogenous to projected data-center demand, on a complete-site basis that retains standby charges, with measured GPU training load, delivered fuel prices, production-pathway carbon, and statutory 45V and 48E incentive mechanics. Nothing beats the wire: gas combined cycle produces at 47 USD/MWh but costs about 114 USD per megawatt-hour of complete site energy against a 92 USD grid; four-hour storage is physically capped near 18 percent of annual energy and, charged at the margin, dirtier than the grid; hydrogen from grid-priced power fails on cost and carbon together. An investment inversion converts these findings into capital terms: conversion-hardware learning buys nothing, because free hardware still exceeds the grid for every low-carbon arm, while global electrolyser deployment on sited sub-20 USD/MWh power brings PEM hydrogen power to about 2.2 times the grid at 300 billion USD and 1.9 times at 1 trillion USD (2.7 and 2.3 for the hydrogen engine), with a carbon reduction of roughly 85 percent (6.8-fold) against grid-power production. Grid parity is not purchasable at any budget. On-site supply is an access and depth product; most current investment targets the wrong term. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.08170 |
| By: | Andonov, Aleksandar; Rauh, Joshua |
| Abstract: | Private equity (PE), institutional investors, and foreign corporations own 58% of wind, 47% of solar, and 34% of natural gas electricity generation. These new entrants are twice as likely to create new power plants as incumbent domestic listed utilities, highlighting a new role for PE in large-scale asset creation. They also acquire existing plants. While fossil-fuel plant sales to foreign corporations extend operations, PE has similar decommissioning rates to incumbents. The new owners create more efficient plants and improve acquired ones. Market deregulation drives the results, highlighting the dual importance of competition and new financing for both creation and acquisitions. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; Regulation; Energy; Ownership structure; Private equity; Electricity market; Utilities |
| JEL: | G23 G24 G32 H54 L51 L71 L94 O13 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19289 |
| By: | Alisaleh Shariati |
| Abstract: | Energy policy has consequences that extend well beyond producers and pipelines to impact household and business costs. In North America, a key factor keeping energy affordable is the flow of Canadian natural gas into US markets. When gas moves freely across the border, households and businesses save billions of dollars. When gas trade is disrupted, those additional costs are passed on to consumers through higher heating bills, higher electricity prices, and higher costs for goods and services. This makes an integrated Canada–US natural gas market a major competitive advantage for both countries. It lowers energy costs, strengthens electricity reliability, supports manufacturing, and helps meet rapidly growing demand from data centers and other energy intensive industries. Preserving and strengthening this integration should be a priority for policymakers on both sides of the border. |
| Keywords: | natural gas, Canada–US energy trade, energy integration, USMCA, natural gas exports, pipelines, energy affordability, electricity prices, energy security, grid reliability, manufacturing competitiveness, data centres, artificial intelligence, LNG, cross-border infrastructure, North America |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sls:resrep:2602 |
| By: | Johannes Gessner; Wolfgang Habla; Benjamin Rübenacker; Ulrich J. Wagner |
| Abstract: | Many European companies face the challenge of lowering CO2 emissions from their company car fleets. A promising lever is to increase the notoriously low electric usage of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs). This paper examines whether home charging infrastructure can help achieve these goals. We leverage quasi-experimental variation in the delivery and installation of home chargers to quantify the impact of this technology on energy use and CO2 emissions of PHEV company cars held by 856 employees of a large German company. Since fuel and electricity expenditures for these cars are covered by the employer, home charging mainly changes the non-monetary costs to an employee. We find that access to home charging almost quintuples electricity consumption: Total charging increases by 318 kWh per quarter while fuel consumption falls by 98 liters, reducing tailpipe CO2 emissions by 38%. Moreover, access to home charging doubles the employee’s propensity to choose a Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) upon renewal of the lease. Based on these estimates we compute the private levelized abatement costs of home chargers for a range of scenarios characterizing the diffusion of BEVs and the evolution of tax-inclusive energy prices over a 20-year horizon. Home chargers break even within twelve years, saving on average 13 tons of CO2 over a 20-year lifetime at negative levelized cost. |
| Keywords: | charging infrastructure, plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles, electric driving share, technology adoption, company cars, marginal emissions |
| JEL: | D12 L91 Q52 R42 |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_663v2 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | This article examines the structural tension between Azerbaijan's international climate commitments and its expanding role as a major natural gas exporter to Europe. Since hosting COP29 in 2024, Azerbaijan has positioned itself as an active participant in global environmental governance while simultaneously accelerating hydrocarbon production, developing new gas fields (including Absheron Phase II, Babek, and non-associated gas at ACG), and deepening its strategic energy partnership with the EU through the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) and Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). Drawing on the concept of "exported emissions, " the article argues that while European states may reduce territorial emissions by substituting Azerbaijani gas for more carbon-intensive fuels, a substantial share of the associated methane emissions-generated during extraction, processing, compression, and transmission-remains externalized to Azerbaijan and other points along the supply chain. The analysis assesses whether existing environmental, health and safety, and human rights safeguards imposed by EU legislation, EBRD, EIB, IFC, OECD, and Equator Principles standards, as well as the new EU Methane Regulation (2024/1787), are adequate to address this challenge. It finds that although TAP operates under one of the most extensive formal governance frameworks applied to energy infrastructure, effective implementation depends heavily on independent monitoring, transparency, and civic space-all of which are significantly constrained in Azerbaijan and, to varying degrees, in Georgia and Türkiye. Restrictions on civil society, journalists, and human rights defenders limit the ability of independent actors to verify compliance, creating a gap between formal regulatory commitments and actual environmental and social outcomes. The article concludes that Azerbaijan's declining performance in the World Economic Forum's 2026 Energy Transition Index-driven by weaknesses in institutional and regulatory "Transition Readiness" rather than technical system performance-illustrates a broader dilemma facing hydrocarbon-exporting states: the credibility of climate commitments ultimately hinges not only on renewable energy targets, but on methane governance, transparency, and protection of the civic space needed to hold gas export infrastructure accountable throughout its operational lifecycle. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Southern Gas Corridor, Trans Adriatic Pipeline, European Energy Security, SOCAR, Exported/Embodied Emissions, Methane Emissions, Energy Transition, COP29, Civic Space, Resource Governance, Human Rights and Environmental Accountability |
| JEL: | K32 P18 Q42 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:342434 |
| By: | Phoebe Koundouri (Dept. of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business); Stathis Devves |
| Abstract: | Climate change, increasing electrification, energy-price volatility, and growing dependence on variable renewable resources are increasing the exposure of local and regional energy systems to economic and operational disruptions. Strengthening climate resilience therefore requires systemic approaches capable of integrating distributed flexibility, behavioural adaptation, local market coordination, and digital governance. This study develops an integrated behavioural-economic-technical framework for evaluating residential prosumers participating in blockchain-enabled local electricity markets under dynamic pricing. The model operates over an annual 8, 760-hour horizon and combines endogenous utility-based demand response, photovoltaic generation, battery storage, grid interaction, peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading, battery degradation, and multidimensional welfare assessment. Three progressively more intelligent battery dispatch strategies-a fixed rule-based strategy, an adaptive forecast-based strategy, and a 24-hour rolling-horizon optimisation strategy-are evaluated for four storage capacities of 10, 15, 20, and 30 kWh under identical assumptions and performance indicators. Results show that dispatch intelligence is generally more influential than battery size alone in determining grid dependence, renewable self-consumption, price responsiveness, and welfare allocation. Strategy A exhibits strong capacity saturation, Strategy B produces the strongest capacity-dependent response and buyer-oriented redistribution of P2P benefits, while Strategy C provides a more balanced compromise between prosumer welfare, market participation, and storage utilisation. Fourier decomposition further identifies systematic intraday periodicity in elasticity, P2P price reductions, and participant utilities, revealing temporal market dynamics that are not captured by annual indicators alone. A utility-based clearing-price benchmark additionally quantifies the distribution of welfare between buyers and selling prosumers, while a hierarchical welfare decomposition separates behavioural utility, conventional grid-related surplus, and decentralised P2P welfare. Overall, the findings demonstrate that distributed storage, intelligent dispatch, and blockchain-enabled local trading can reduce exposure to wholesale-market volatility, increase local renewable utilisation and energy autonomy, and strengthen the adaptive capacity of energy communities. The framework therefore interprets distributed flexibility not merely as an optimisation resource, but as a form of local climate-resilience infrastructure supporting more adaptive, decentralised, and inclusive energy transitions |
| Keywords: | Climate resilience, Peer-to-peer electricity Trading, Battery energy storage systems, Prosumer utility, Blockchain-enabled energy markets, Distributed energy flexibility |
| Date: | 2026–08–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2620 |
| By: | Sebasti\'an Souyris; Jason A. Duan; Anantaram Balakrishnan; Varun Rai |
| Abstract: | Problem definition: Solar electricity generation is a strategic component of energy portfolios designed to meet growing demand and reduce carbon emissions. Governments and municipalities encourage household photovoltaic (PV) adoption through upfront rebates and tax credits. Limited budgets require principled, data-driven policies that account for the drivers of adoption and the effects of incentives on adoption rates. Methodology/results: We develop a dynamic structural model of residential PV diffusion based on adoption decisions by forward-looking households that weigh the economic trade-offs between installing now and later. Adoption depends on return on investment and influence from neighboring adopters. The model segments households by home value and urbanization level, incorporates unobserved heterogeneity, and captures spatiotemporal installation dynamics. We estimate the model using Bayesian methods and detailed household-level data from Austin, Texas. In out-of-sample tests, it predicts installations more accurately than contemporary alternatives. We simulate counterfactual policies within the dynamic equilibrium of PV diffusion to evaluate rebate designs. The framework can also be adapted to study the adoption of other durable technologies. Managerial implications: A rebate offered for a limited period generates more adoption and emissions reductions than a prolonged, costlier program. This counterintuitive result arises from forward-looking behavior, neighbor influence, and accelerated adoption before the rebate expires. We also evaluate phased reductions and rebates differentiated by household segment. A two-step reduction outperforms multiple small reductions. Geographic differentiation improves policy performance, whereas differentiation by home value offers little advantage over a uniform rebate. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.23796 |
| By: | John Fitzgerald (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Jules Linden (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER)); Cathal O'Donoghue (Department of Economics, National University of Ireland Galway) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies Greenhouse Gas Emission trajectories, climate governance, and climate policy on the island of Ireland. Comparing Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, it shows that the structure of emissions, and therefore the challenge to decarbonise, is highly similar North and South, but climate governance and policy maturity differ substantially. The RoI has a more developed and comprehensive set of climate policies and NI lags significantly behind the RoI. Yet, both jurisdictions are failing to meet their climate targets and advisory councils across NI and the RoI recommend similar actions to advance towards the targets. There is, therefore, a case to improve cooperation on climate policy on the island and to seek out synergies. NI can accelerate the development of its own climate policy mix through policy learning and both the RoI and NI can benefit from developing the common infrastructure and knowledge required to achieve swifter emission reductions. Crucial areas of collaboration include further interconnection of the two electricity grids on the island, shared research on cattle breeding and feed additives, a common biomethane market, the development of common or standardised EV charging infrastructure and of common retrofitting and heat pump standards and skill recognition. The paper also discusses significant challenges to achieving effective climate policy cooperation across north and south. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; greenhouse gas emissions; environmental policy; Island of Ireland |
| JEL: | Q20 Q40 Q50 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep1926 |
| By: | Rounak Hande (xKDR Forum); Utkarsh Narain (xKDR Forum); Ajay Shah (xKDR Forum) |
| Abstract: | Accurate measurement of renewable energy capacity is a prerequisite for effective climate policy making. Yet, official statistics are rarely cross-validated against independent sources. Sound measurement helps policymakers meet globally-stated goals and guides the private sector in deploying capital. We compare solar and wind installed capacity from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) against two independent sources: satellite imagery from Global Renewables Watch (GRW) and project-level data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) CAPEX database. For solar, GRW tracks CEA closely (95% as of January 2024) initially, but diverges by April 2026. The satellite estimate of 133 GW with a slight downward adjustment to account for non-operational plants likely represents true solar capacity in India as of April 2026. Wind estimates differ more substantially, with GRW reporting 122% of CEA capacity as of January 2024, likely reflecting higher turbine capacity factor assumptions. As of April 2026, CEA reports installed wind capacity of 56.4 GW. The CMIE CAPEX database accounts for roughly 48-75% of CEA-reported capacity for wind and solar respectively by April 2026, consistent with its role as a survey rather than a census, and indicative of sizeable unrecorded capacity. Our analysis establishes a benchmark to validate official statistics with alternative data. Additionally, we note that alternative sources like GRW and CMIE CAPEX can serve as valuable project-level resources supporting microeconomic research. |
| JEL: | Q42 Q43 Q48 O13 C82 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anf:wpaper:45 |
| By: | Grimm, Michel; Kerner, Philip; Klarl, Torben |
| Abstract: | Uncertainty is a major theme of complex and multilayered socio-technical transitions such as the transition to a sustainable energy system. Thereby, uncertainty can delay investment decisions and affect the prospects and speed of the transition. Additionally, the energy transition is shaped by local conditions and transition paths differ across sub-national regions. In this paper, we contribute to the understanding of the effects of uncertainty in the energy transition by proposing a novel energy-transition-related uncertainty index at this sub-national level. To achieve this, we use recent advances in Natural Language Processing and a novel dataset of localized German news articles at the German NUTS 2 level. We discuss our new index in detail and compare it to established measures of uncertainty to show that it is well suited to purposefully capture uncertainty related to the energy transition. In our empirical application, we show that regional uncertainty related to the energy transition is driven by common national-level factors and region-specific path dependence simultaneously. Furthermore, we report robust evidence for regional uncertainty shocks leading to a quick decline in investment in solar photovoltaics. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, Large Language Models, News Data, Renewable Energy Investments |
| JEL: | Q43 D80 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:atv:wpaper:2602 |
| By: | Wdowin, Julia; Coyle, Diane |
| Abstract: | Shadow prices provide estimates of the economic contribution of capital assets (goods and services) to social welfare. They differ from exchange values in that they aim to incorporate the economic value of externalities associated with some assets. As the revised SNA25 standard explicitly recognises renewable energy resources as economic assets, this paper demonstrates an empirical methodology for estimating the shadow value of wind as a renewable energy asset, and provides estimates of the annual asset shadow value for onshore wind in the UK between 2009 and 2023. The estimates incorporate the value of avoided carbon emissions as a service wind energy provides. The estimated annual shadow asset values are much larger than market price equivalent asset values. While these estimates should be treated with caution due to a number of methodological choices involved, they signal the likely underestimation of the contribution of wind energy to social welfare. The paper concludes by discussing methodological assumptions and data needs for estimating shadow values. The paper provides a modest empirical contribution, whilst methodologically consistent with ONS natural capital accounting for feasible implementation. |
| Keywords: | shadow prices; natural capital accounting; wind; renewable energy; asset valuation; welfare |
| JEL: | D60 D62 E01 Q40 Q51 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2026-08 |
| By: | Arnaud Garnier (LHEEA - Laboratoire de recherche en Hydrodynamique, Énergétique et Environnement Atmosphérique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Pierre Marty (LHEEA - Laboratoire de recherche en Hydrodynamique, Énergétique et Environnement Atmosphérique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Rodica Loisel (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | The pathway towards decarbonisation of shipping is unclear, as many technical, economic, and regulatory challenges remain. This study builds a bottom-up model to forecast the merchant fleet vessel composition and CO2 emissions by 2050. A 35, 000 vessel fleet is modelled based on technical and operational data, on the population pyramid and historical fleet evolution triggered by trade demand. The emissions forecast in a ‘no-action' scenario shows that even low-growth traffic scenarios will largely deviate from the carbon neutrality objectives. It highlights fleet heterogeneity as a key point in understanding and considering global decarbonisation strategy. Fleet renewal analysis revealed technical and planning issues due to the tendency towards larger vessels and high building rates up to 2000 vessels per year from 2040 onwards. Alternatively, retrofitting could significantly contribute to carbon neutrality, concerning up to 40% of the shipping tonnage if the strategy of decarbonisation is not integrated early in shipyard industry planning. |
| Keywords: | Energy consumption model, Shipping decarbonisation, Bottom-up approach, Fleet renewal inertia, Traffic demand scenarios, Emission forecast, AIS data |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05692446 |
| By: | Brooke Hathhorn; Michael T. Owyang |
| Abstract: | Why do gasoline prices rise quickly but fall slowly when oil prices drop? Learn the economics behind the "rockets and feathers" effect on pump prices. |
| Keywords: | oil prices; gasoline prices |
| Date: | 2026–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:103635 |
| By: | C.O. Olaniyi (University of South Africa); N.M. Odhiambo (University of South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Transitioning to a carbon-neutral renewable energy (REN) option to decarbonize ecosystems and mitigate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and the negative impacts of climate change is consistent with United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 7 and 13. Scholars have identified natural resource wealth and institutions as critical factors in the REN transition in resource-rich countries. Financial barriers are arguably the most significant impediments to transitioning to REN, as REN is more capital-intensive and costly to produce, invest in, and use than traditional fossil fuel-based energy. Meanwhile, weak institutions and corruption in most resource-rich countries culminate in the resource curse phenomenon and the mismanagement of natural resource wealth. It implies that institutions (weak or strong) modify the natural resource rent contribution to the REN transition. Previous research has paid little attention to the impact of the interplay between natural resources and institutional quality on the REN transition in resource rich African countries. This study examines how institutions moderate the contribution of natural resource wealth to accelerating or inhibiting the REN switch in resource-rich African countries for the period 2000-2021, using fully modified ordinary least squares, a Driscoll-Kraay nonparametric covariance matrix, and moments-based quantile regression estimators. This study departs from earlier studies by determining the institutional quality threshold above which institutions significantly stimulate natural resource rents to accelerate Africa's REN transition. The findings indicate that institutions in resource-rich African countries breed inefficient bureaucracies and corruption in natural resource rent administration. These undermine the ability |
| Keywords: | institutional quality, dynamic panel threshold, natural resource rents, renewable energy transition, resource-rich African countries |
| JEL: | N27 O13 Q20 |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:afa:wpaper:wp122024 |
| By: | Fernando, Sachintha |
| Abstract: | This paper replicates Mideksa (2024), which applies the synthetic control method to estimate the effect of Finland's 1990 carbon tax introduction on per capita transport sector carbon emissions. I successfully replicate the main findings: the synthetic counterfactual closely tracks Finnish emissions in the pre-treatment period, with a substantial post-1990 divergence consistent with the original study. However, I show that this result is entirely driven by the inclusion of a single donor unit, Luxembourg, which is a structural outlier yet receives a positive weight in the optimization. Including Luxembourg is unusual in the literature: Luxembourg is a well-documented structural outlier, as its comparatively low fuel prices attract fuel tourism from neighboring countries, inflating its recorded transport emissions relative to actual domestic transport activity. Excluding Luxembourg deteriorates the pre-treatment fit and attenuates the estimated treatment effect, which falls to roughly a third of the original estimate and becomes indistinguishable from the placebo distribution. A donor pool resampling exercise confirms that the large treatment effect reported in the original study is systematically concentrated in subsamples containing Luxembourg. These findings highlight the sensitivity of synthetic control estimates to donor pool composition and provide an empirical illustration of interpolation bias in action. |
| Keywords: | synthetic controls, replication, carbon taxes, policy evaluation |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:317 |
| By: | Tröger, Tobias |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the limits of corporate governance as a tool for advancing climate transition. While capital market mechanisms, shareholder stewardship, say-on-climate votes, and ESG-linked executive compensation are often presented as effective levers for greening corporate behavior, their transformative capacity is systematically constrained. Building on insights from financial economics and agency theory, the paper highlights incentive distortions within the complex investment ecosystem and introduces the "waterbed effect" as a central, yet underappreciated, limitation. Firm-specific governance interventions alter marginal abatement incentives asymmetrically, inducing competitive reallocation of emissions or production that may fully offset intended environmental gains. A formal model demonstrates how such interventions fail to reduce aggregate emissions under emissions trading systems and may even be counterproductive in competitive product markets. The analysis suggests that corporate governance can complement, but not substitute for, universally applicable regulatory instruments such as carbon pricing or comprehensive emissions caps. Overreliance on governance-based solutions risks inefficient resource allocation and may crowd out the political momentum necessary for effective climate regulation. |
| Keywords: | Corporate governance, Climate change, Waterbed effect, Systematic stewardship, ESG, Emissions trading |
| JEL: | D62 D86 G34 G38 K22 Q54 Q58 D62 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:lawfin:342453 |
| By: | Mehan, Sach |
| Abstract: | India faces a dual crisis: an oil import dependency of 87.7% costing $137 billion annually, and binding climate commitments including a 47% emission intensity reduction target and net zero by 2070. The transport sector, which accounts for 14% of India's total emissions and 58-60% of imported crude oil consumption, sits at the centre of both crises. This policy brief examines ethanol blending as a policy instrument positioned to address both simultaneously. Drawing on official government data, a peer-reviewed study by IIM-A and the Potsdam Institute (Jha et al., 2026), and the Parliament statement of July 20, 2026, the brief analyses the advantages and challenges of India's Ethanol Blending Programme, which achieved its 20% blending target in 2025, five years ahead of schedule. While the programme has delivered $19.3 billion in forex savings and a net reduction of 832 lakh metric tonnes of CO2 emissions, it presents serious trade-offs in food security, water stress, and land use. This brief argues that the path forward lies not in retreating from ethanol blending, but in accelerating the transition from first-generation sugarcane-based ethanol to second-generation agricultural waste-based ethanol. Five policy recommendations are proposed to address the structural challenges while preserving the programme's strategic benefits. |
| Date: | 2026–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:aws6h_v2 |
| By: | Rodolfo R.S.M. Freitas; Fengqi You; Zhihao Xing; Fernando Alves Rochinha; Roger R.F. Cracknell; Daniel D.M. Mira; Alessandro Parente; Kai Hong Luo; Jinyue Yan; Xi Jiang |
| Abstract: | The aviation industry’s dependence on liquid fossil fuels makes it one of the most challenging sectors to decarbonise. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) offer a promising pathway; however, their widespread deployment is constrained by high production costs and the lack of systematic design tools for identifying viable drop-in fuel candidates. To address this challenge, this work presents an AI-guided de novo fuel discovery framework based on deep kernel learning to establish a high-fidelity mapping between molecular structure and key physicochemical fuel properties. The proposed probabilistic surrogate model demonstrates strong predictive performance, achieving coefficients of determination exceeding 0.91 across all target properties while providing calibrated uncertainty estimates through probabilistic inference. Quantitative uncertainty diagnostics, including negative log-likelihood, continuous ranked probability score, interval sharpness, and predictive uncertainty calibration analyses, demonstrate robust predictive reliability across the evaluated fuel-property space. Integrated with a virtual high-throughput screening framework, the proposed methodology enables rapid exploration of high-dimensional blend-composition spaces and identification of candidate SAF formulations whose predicted properties are consistent with, or exceed, those of JP-8 and Jet A reference fuels. The identified SAF blends additionally exhibit an estimated reduction in particulate emissions exceeding 17%. Repeated optimisation and sensitivity analyses further demonstrate robustness with respect to stochastic initialisation and optimisation hyperparameters. Importantly, these results should be interpreted as prediction-guided identification of promising SAF candidates rather than direct experimental validation. Although the predicted properties align with key certification-relevant specifications, full assessment of 100% drop-in capability, operational compatibility, and certification readiness requires comprehensive experimental validation and qualification according to established aviation standards. Overall, this work establishes an AI-enabled framework that integrates predictive modelling, uncertainty quantification, and virtual high-throughput optimisation to accelerate the discovery and prioritisation of sustainable aviation fuel candidates, supporting more efficient exploration of the SAF design space and contributing to the aviation sector’s transition towards net-zero emissions. |
| Keywords: | AI for science; AI-compositional mapping; De novo design; Decarbonisation; Energy transition; Sustainable aviation fuels; Sustainable energy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/412197 |
| By: | Andrés-Cerezo, David; Fabra, Natalia |
| Abstract: | Decarbonizing the power sector requires major investments in renewables and storage. Though often seen as complementary, these technologies can act as substitutes from an economic perspective. When renewable output correlates positively with demand and capacity is low, storage may lower renewable profits, and vice versa — especially with strategic thermal producers. In markets with negatively correlated renewables, like solar and wind, storage can benefit one while disadvantaging the other. These findings inform policies on the timing and effectiveness of mandates or subsidies, suggesting that solar investments may need an initial push before supporting storage. Simulations of the Spanish market show that, at high solar penetration, storage boosts solar profits but reduces wind profits. |
| Keywords: | market power |
| JEL: | L94 Q40 Q42 Q48 Q50 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19294 |
| By: | Johanna Bola\~nos-Zu\~niga; Alberto J. Lamadrid |
| Abstract: | In this study, we use electricity demand growth, cooling requirements, and backup system operation to evaluate the environmental and economic implications of artificial intelligence data centers in the United States. Our results indicate that impacts are not determined solely by facility design, but by the broader electricity, water, and land-use systems in which these facilities operate. Emissions are primarily driven by electricity consumption and therefore depend on marginal generation mixes, transmission constraints, and the spatial and temporal distribution of demand. Analysis further shows that local effects include pressures on water resources, increased noise exposure, and land-use changes, with outcomes varying across regions and infrastructure conditions. The assessment of technological and operational measures shows that improvements in energy efficiency, cooling configurations, and operational strategies can reduce these impacts, although their effectiveness depends on system-level conditions. Evaluation of regulatory and market structures suggests that existing frameworks may not fully account for location- and time-specific externalities. These findings support the need for integrated policy approaches that align data center deployment and operation with electricity system characteristics, water availability, and land-use planning to improve overall environmental and economic performance. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.09882 |
| By: | Ndubuisi, Gideon; Avenyo, Elvis |
| Keywords: | Gender equality, Green transition, Engendering Policy, Gender-Transformative Industrial Policy, G-TRIP, Africa |
| JEL: | O14 O55 O57 J16 |
| Date: | 2026–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2026011 |
| By: | De Roche, Gabriel (University of California, San Diego); de Brito, Sophia Tomany; Min, Yohan; Poudel, Sanjay; Singh, Madalsa; Hidalgo-Gonzalez, Patricia; Deshmukh, Ranjit; Wu, Grace C.; Mildenberger, Matto |
| Abstract: | Decarbonizing residential energy depends on millions of households making millions of purchasing decisions across multiple household electrification technologies, especially solar and storage systems, electric vehicles, heat pumps, and induction stoves. This paper describes consumer attitudes towards household electrification using a large representative survey of 7, 158 households in California, with data collected in Spring 2025 from a stratified sample that includes large subgroups across all of California's climate zones as well as from census tracts designated as Disadvantaged Communities by the state. Alongside a wide range of sociodemographic and attitudinal predictors of current adoption, we measure future adoption interest with a personalized contingent-valuation measure of the minimum financial incentive/subsidy required to adopt along a technology-specific subsidy ladder. Leveraging the large statewide sample size, we also use multilevel regression with post-stratification (MRP) to estimate future adoption rates for each of California's 9, 129 census tracts for every threshold along this subsidy ladder. We find substantial latent demand, especially for technologies with low current adoption. We also find heterogeneity across technologies in consumers' sensitivity to subsidies and that attitudinal predictors (and especially beliefs about cost, health, and safety benefits) dominate sociodemographic predictors. These results have direct implications for active policy design. Information campaigns designed to shift beliefs about health and safety play an important complementary role alongside cost-focused messages. Our geographically fine-grained estimates of future adoption at the census tract level provide rich local data for policy-makers, researchers, and practitioners designing incentive programs and planning grid infrastructure as California households continue to electrify. |
| Date: | 2026–08–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:zjcw2_v1 |
| By: | Yang, Meng; Zheng, Yanan; An, Henry; Qiu, Feng |
| Abstract: | Subnational climate policies, such as the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in the United States, can generate cross-border effects, including emissions leakage and positive spatial spillovers. We estimate a spatial difference-in-differences (DiD) model to evaluate these spillovers. Our spatial DiD framework separately estimates three effects: direct effects on participating states, spillover effects among RGGI states, and spillover effects to neighboring non-participating states. We find significant reductions in coal, natural gas, and petroleum consumption in RGGI states, along with notable spillover effects within the regulated group and into nearby unregulated states. Our analysis shows that subnational policies may lead to positive unintended consequences in addition to the well- known negative leakage effects. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404470 |
| By: | Lutz Kilian; Kunal Patel |
| Abstract: | We draw on evidence from the 2026 Iran War to assess the validity of estimates of the short-run price elasticity of oil supply reported in the literature. Our analysis confirms that the one-month and one-quarter U.S. oil supply elasticity is effectively zero, consistent with estimates in Newell and Prest (2019). The data strongly reject the much higher elasticity estimates reported by more recent studies. This finding is consistent with evidence from surveys of oil company executives and with industry data about how long it takes to complete a well and start pumping oil. It is also consistent with theoretical arguments that the short-run oil supply elasticity is zero if adjusting oil production is costly, as is the case in practice. Our results have important implications for the construction and credibility of structural VAR models of the global oil market. |
| Keywords: | Iran War; oil price; supply elasticity; oil production; well completions; shale oil |
| JEL: | C32 C33 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:103623 |
| By: | Burnett, J. Wesley; Fitzgerald, Timothy |
| Abstract: | Between 1930 and 2022, the United States lost nearly three-quarters of its farms. We examine whether electric cooperatives created under the Rural Electrification Act of 1936 slowed this decline. Using a 122-year county panel and variation in cooperative service territories, we estimate the long-run effects of cooperative-led electrification on rural economic outcomes. Our augmented event-study design, which includes state-by-year fixed effects and baseline controls interacted with year, shows that cooperative counties retained about 15% more farms by 2022. The effect is negligible through midcentury but grows steadily after 1950. It is absent in raw cross-county comparisons and appears only when conditioning on within-state variation and pre-treatment differences, reflecting where cooperatives initially formed rather than federal targeting. We find no detectable effects on population, manufacturing, or retail, suggesting an agricultural stabilization channel: electrification helped sustain farms that might otherwise have exited. This contrasts with broad growth effects documented in developing-country electrification studies. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404774 |
| By: | Mayang Sari; Suphi Sen; Hans-Peter Weikard |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of a 2018 reform that expanded the scope of corporate income tax exemptions in Indonesia to include investments in renewable energy capacity. We find a large increase in the share of renewables in total installed capacity. These effects are mainly driven by the expansion of renewables and partially by a decrease in investments in fossil-fuel capacity. These regional effects imply a two-fold increase in the renewable energy share of Indonesia. We find no effects on manufacturing, a decline in mining activity accompanied by lower wages but no change in employment, and an increase in services employment, particularly in utilities. These results highlight the effectiveness of fiscal incentives in spurring capital-intensive infrastructure investments in developing countries and have implications for the role of renewable capacity expansion in regional development. |
| Keywords: | investment tax incentives, tax holidays, corporate income tax, renewable energy, investment, industrial policy |
| JEL: | H25 H30 L50 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12886 |
| By: | Peter K. Kruse-Andersen; Peter Birch Sørensen; Anders Pretzmann Gotfredsen; Francesco Clora; Wusheng Yu |
| Abstract: | Despite being a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, agriculture remains one of the least regulated sectors in climate policy. Designing climate policy for agriculture is challenging due to the interaction between GHG emissions, emissions of other pollutants such as ammonia and nitrate, competing land uses, and the risk of GHG leakage. Within a general equilibrium framework, we analyze cost-effective climate policy for the entire economy with a focus on agriculture, assuming a national GHG emissions target and a target for limiting GHG leakage. The first-best policy requires a large set of tax and subsidy instruments to mitigate GHG leakage from all possible channels. We argue that this set of instruments is unlikely to be implemented in practice. We therefore focus on an implementable second-best policy. We show that accounting for all externalities and leakage effects, it is second-best optimal to differentiate GHG taxes across sectors and to allow taxes on other emissions to deviate from their Pigouvian level. To quantify the second-best policy, we simulate a calibrated version of our theoretical model, with leakage coefficients computed using a large-scale global general equilibrium model. Simulations indicate that the domestic environmental co-benefits of GHG reductions may be sufficiently large to ensure that overall household welfare improves even when disregarding global warming effects. However, the government faces a trade-off: if it wishes to limit GHG leakage, it will have to sacrifice the benefits to the domestic environment that could otherwise be gained from the second-best optimal unilateral climate policy. |
| Keywords: | climate and environmental policy towards agriculture, greenhouse gas leakage, environmental co-benefits from climate policy. |
| JEL: | D58 H21 Q15 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12944 |
| By: | Chiara Canta; Helmuth Cremer; Firouz Gahvari |
| Abstract: | We develop a two-country model of trade and global pollution in which country A values environmental quality whereas country B does not. Governments choose emissions and commodity taxes non-cooperatively under autarky and free trade. Under autarky, the principle of targeting holds: country A levies a Pigouvian emissions tax, whereas neither country uses a commodity tax. Opening borders fundamentally changes the design of corrective taxation. Country A subsidizes the polluting good to shift production toward its cleaner firms. The optimal subsidy depends on the marginal social damage of emissions despite the presence of an emissions tax, implying a violation of the principle of targeting. Contrary to the conventional pollution-haven prediction, the environmentally unconcerned country need not be the exporter of the polluting good. As country A's valuation of environmental quality increases, or country B's production-cost advantage narrows, production shifts toward A, which eventually becomes the exporter. Beyond a critical threshold, trade reduces global emissions relative to autarky. Welfare effects are asymmetric: trade always benefits country B but may either increase or decrease welfare in country A. |
| Keywords: | global externality, asymmetric valuation of environmental quality, tax competition, emission taxes, output taxes |
| JEL: | H21 H23 H73 H87 F15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12931 |
| By: | Kim, Gisu; Elbakidze, Levan |
| Abstract: | The United States has become the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Yet, the local air quality impacts of LNG export terminals remain unexplored. We estimate the effects of the three largest U.S. export terminals on local ambient ozone pollution. Using daily wind direction to determine downwind treatment versus control observations and difference-in-difference (DiD) methods, we document statistically significant 5% to 7% increases in downwind ozone pollution due to export terminals. The estimated effects are robust across multiple specifications. Even with these increases, average daily ozone concentrations remain well below EPA’s National Ambient Air Quality Standards. Nevertheless, the results document measurable, localized externalities from LNG export operations, which emphasizes the need for continued monitoring as export capacity expands. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404439 |
| By: | Johannes Gallé; Rodrigo Oliveira; Daniel Overbeck; Nadine Riedel; Edson R. Severnini |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first comprehensive evidence on how firms in an emerging economy respond to carbon taxation in the context of an early-phase policy, highlighting how firms adjust when incentives are modest but signals about future regulation are strong. We study the announcement and early implementation of South Africa’s 2019 carbon tax using detailed administrative firm-level data from 2011-2021. Employing a matched difference-in-differences design and event-study models, we trace dynamic firm responses. Contrary to concerns that carbon taxes might hinder growth or employment, we find no negative effects on firm performance or jobs. Leveraging variation in firms’ exposure to the tax through temporary tax-free allowances, we find that firms facing higher effective tax rates increased sales, employment, capital, and capital depreciation in anticipation of the policy, reflecting resolution of regulatory uncertainty and adjustments to mitigate stranded asset risks. While we detect no measurable reduction in emissions — likely due to anticipatory behavior — the results show that early-phase carbon pricing can shape firm behavior without harming economic outcomes, even in low- and middle-income settings. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing, carbon tax, firm performance, employment outcomes |
| JEL: | H23 Q52 Q58 O13 O55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12953 |
| By: | Onil Boussim |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a synthetic control estimator for compositional outcomes, vectors of shares generated by an underlying categorical process. Derived from a random utility model with interactive fixed effects on relative systematic utilities, the estimator maps compositions to log-odds, where the standard convex hull condition identifies the counterfactual as a convex combination of donor log-odds. Equivalently, it recovers the Fr\'{e}chet barycenter under the Aitchison metric, the canonical geometry of the simplex (the non-linear space of shares) using a single set of weights across all categories. I also developed a placebo inference procedure based on the Aitchison distance. An application to Pennsylvania's electricity generation mix following the Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard uncovers a large and persistent compositional shift: natural gas exceeds its counterfactual by nearly 60 percentage points by 2022, while renewables lose relative ground. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.16991 |
| By: | Megan Lang; Alpha Ly |
| Abstract: | Even as governments push to build infrastructure to achieve universal access to electricity, demand-side barriers constrain uptake where infrastructure already exists. This paper assesses the impact of the quasi-experimental introduction of mobile money on electricity adoption by households. We conduct a granular district-level analysis of 33 sub-Saharan African countries that leverages differential sub-national mobile network coverage. We find that mobile money access improves district-level power uptake by around 24% relative to similar districts without mobile money access. We provide evidence consistent with demand-side channels, specifically reduced financial frictions, driving this relationship as opposed to supply-side infrastructure expansion. Furthermore, we highlight the enabling role of mobile network coverage and the detrimental impact of mobile money taxes on electrification efforts. |
| Keywords: | mobile money, financial inclusion, electrification, demand-side factors |
| JEL: | O16 O33 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12921 |
| By: | Dylan Brewer; R. Jim Crozier |
| Abstract: | In 2019, a fire at a natural gas plant and historically low temperatures caused an emergency shortage of natural gas in Michigan. A statewide emergency text alert asked households to turn thermostats down to 65{\deg}F. We analyze the effectiveness of this request using high-frequency smart-thermostat data from Michigan and four neighboring states. Using a difference-in-differences research design, we find that Michigan households reduced thermostat settings by 1.1 degrees on average. Our results suggest that the use of the wireless emergency alert system was critical in creating an effective emergency response. We examine heterogeneity in responsiveness by whether a household's baseline thermostat setting was above or below the compliance target of 65{\deg}F and by Democratic Party gubernatorial vote share. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.27584 |
| By: | Thomas S. Gundersen; Ewoud Quaghebeur; Håkon Tretvoll (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | Commodity price shocks can be a key driver of business cycles in resource-rich small open economies. We assess their importance for the Norwegian economy by estimating a structural VAR model and measuring the contribution of oil price shocks to fluctuations in economic activity. Focusing on the oil price collapse of 2014–2016, the VAR evidence indicates sizable spillovers from oil prices to the non-resource economy. We develop and estimate a small open economy DSGE model with a resource extraction sector that demands both materials and investment goods from the rest of the economy. Investment adjustment costs in the oil sector generate gradual and persistent spillovers to mainland activity following oil price shocks. Hence, the model is consistent with the empirical responses obtained from the VAR. Applying the framework to the COVID-19 pandemic, we find that while pandemic-specific shocks dominated the contraction, oil price movements also contributed non-negligibly to the downturn. |
| Keywords: | business cycles; small open economy; commodity prices |
| JEL: | E32 F41 F44 Q43 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:1039 |
| By: | Guerriero, Arthur Zito; Kapeller, Jakob; Ankel-Peters, Jörg |
| Abstract: | The social cost of carbon (SCC) is the central concept of benefit-cost analysis in climate economics. The SCC provides guidance on the urgency of climate policy as it expresses the present value of expected future damages associated with the emission of one additional ton of CO2. This paper summarizes key normative assumptions underlying the calculation of the SCC and illustrates how these crucially affect the magnitude of final estimates. Building on a social welfare framework, we discuss the treatment of risk, time (discounting), and inequality (equity weights). Moreover, we present the normative choices related to how SCC estimates monetize non-market damage, in particular the loss of human lives. Based on a database of 515 studies with original SCC estimates (Tol, 2026), we document how the literature deals with these normative issues. In doing so, we find significant variation in the treatment of normative aspects across studies, but also across different normative dimensions. For instance, while the literature justifies the use of a time discount rate based on the assumption of diminishing marginal utility, equity aspects between countries or regions are often ignored. We conclude by stressing that while the SCC can help structuring societal deliberation about climate policy, greater clarity and transparency on the underlying normative assumptions is necessary. |
| Keywords: | climate change, social welfare, normativity, discounting, distribution, risk, value-neutrality |
| JEL: | D61 D63 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsowp:342451 |
| By: | Diewert, W. Erwin; Fox, Kevin J. |
| Abstract: | The existing environmental accounting literature typically uses the Weitzman (1976) consumer perspective to measure the welfare effects of environmental bads (pollution, environmental degradation). We show that the consumer perspective is the “wrong” perspective to measure the welfare effects of bads: it is impossible to measure completely the welfare effects of externalities using a consumer framework. In contrast, production-based approaches are shown to be useful in this context. |
| Keywords: | Pollution; green accounting; externalities; welfare; productivity |
| JEL: | D24 D62 Q51 |
| Date: | 2026–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2026-03 |
| By: | Bachmann, Ronald; Fischer, David; Gausing, Sibylle; Klauser, Roman; Rammert, Timo |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the extent and characteristics of labor shortages in the context of the green transition of the German labor market and discusses potential strategies to mitigate them. Using online job vacancy data, a firm survey, administrative employment and apprenticeship data, and measures of occupational greenness and labor shortages from the German Federal Employment Agency, we provide a comprehensive picture of green labor demand, supply, and shortages. We show that green labor demand has increased along both the extensive and intensive margins and identify the occupations and skills most relevant to the green transition. While green occupations are represented among both shortage and non-shortage occupations, firms increasingly expect the green transition to exacerbate skill and labor shortages. At the same time, the German apprenticeship system appears to play an important role in alleviating these shortages: although green occupations face shortages of apprentices, they remain comparatively attractive to applicants. Finally, firms predominantly rely on internal adjustment mechanisms - particularly training and increased technology use - rather than external recruitment strategies, such as hiring from abroad, to address changing labor demand. |
| Abstract: | Dieses Papier untersucht das Ausmaß und verschiedene Merkmale des Fachkräftemangels im Kontext der ökologischen Transformation des deutschen Arbeitsmarktes und erörtert mögliche Strategien zur Abmilderung der Konsequenzen. Die empirische Analyse basiert auf Daten aus Online-Stellenanzeigen, einer Unternehmensbefragungen sowie administrativen Beschäftigungs- und Ausbildungsdaten. Ergänzend werden berufsspezifische Indikatoren der Bundesagentur für Arbeit zur "Grünheit" von Berufen und zum Arbeitskräftemangel herangezogen. Dadurch lassen sich grüne Arbeitsnachfrage, das entsprechende Arbeitsangebot und bestehende Fachkräfteengpässe umfassend abbilden. Wir zeigen, dass die Nachfrage nach grünen Arbeitskräften sowohl entlang der extensiven als auch an der intensiven Marge gestiegen ist und identifizieren die für den grünen Wandel relevantesten Berufe und Qualifikationen. Grüne Berufe sind sowohl unter den Berufen mit ausgeprägtem Fachkräftemangel als auch unter den Berufen, die keinen Fachkräftemangel aufweisen, vertreten. Dennoch erwarten Unternehmen, dass die ökologische Transformation den Fachkräftemangel verschärfen wird. Eine zentrale Rolle bei der Abmilderung dieser Engpässe kommt dem deutschen Ausbildungssystem zu. Obwohl auch grüne Berufe einen Mangel an Auszubildenden verzeichnen, bleiben diese Berufe für Bewerberinnen und Bewerber vergleichsweise attraktiv. Unternehmen nutzen zur Bewältigung der sich wandelnden Arbeitsnachfrage überwiegend interne Anpassungsmechanismen, insbesondere Weiterbildung und verstärkten Technologieeinsatz, statt externe Rekrutierungsstrategien, wie die Anwerbung von Arbeitskräften aus dem Ausland. |
| Keywords: | green transition, labor demand, firm adjustment, green skills, labor shortages |
| JEL: | J23 J24 Q52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:342544 |
| By: | Agerton, Mark; Beatty, Lauren; Cruz Figueroa Garcia, Diogenes |
| Abstract: | Environmental remediation yields no direct profit for producers, making delay privately rational and resulting in an externalization of the environmental costs of inaction, such as methane leaks and risk of groundwater contamination. There is option value to delaying plugging, however, if there is an expectation of future higher prices. Using data from the Railroad Commission of Texas, we estimate a discretetime dynamic discrete choice model of well production, shut-in, and plugging decisions. We recover the structural costs of shut-in maintenance, plugging and abandonment, and well reactivation for both oil and gas wells. We use these estimates to evaluate counterfactual policies, including plugging subsidies, idling taxes, capacity-based plugging mandate and time-based idling limits, that aim to accelerate the abandonment of unproductive wells. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404437 |
| By: | Chen, Jialiang; Lade, Gabriel |
| Abstract: | Environmental advocates argue that California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) is expanding U.S. dairy herds by paying farmers to capture manure methane, while regulators dismiss these concerns as speculative. We exploit the historical placement of natural gas facilities relative to dairy farms and historical LCFS credit prices to examine the impact of the policy on county milk-cow inventories from 2012 to 2025. We find that a 10 percent increase in the credit revenue per unit of biogas raises herd sizes by approximately 1.2 percent for complier counties. The estimate is robust to excluding California. National herd inventories have held steady between 9.3 and 9.5 million head since 2018, suggesting the policy reallocated dairy cow locations rather than expanding aggregate herd sizes. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404445 |
| By: | Maria Garcia-Osipenko; Nicolai V. Kuminoff; Spencer Perry; Nicholas Vreugdenhil |
| Abstract: | Utilities increasingly sell electricity using complex menus of time-constant and time-varying price schedules. We study how to design such a menu to maximize social welfare in a second-best environment where the marginal private and external costs of generating electricity vary over time, institutional constraints prevent mandating time-varying pricing and consumer behavior is distorted by frictions. We develop a model of plan choice, consumption and intertemporal substitution with time-varying marginal social costs and estimate it using administrative data from a large utility. We provide evidence of substantial intertemporal substitution in response to time-varying price incentives and selection across plans based on multidimensional heterogeneity. While the current menu’s time-varying plans substantially shift consumption from high-price to low-price hours, we find that they reduce social welfare. This loss is mitigated by information frictions. We show how to redesign the menu to simultaneously improve outcomes for consumers, the utility and the environment. |
| Keywords: | electricity pricing; time-of-use pricing; menu design; consumer choice; social welfare |
| JEL: | D12 D47 L94 Q40 Q50 |
| Date: | 2026–08–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:103621 |
| By: | Singleton, Alex; Philips, Ian; Anable, Jillian |
| Abstract: | Battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption is an important contributor to the decarbonisation of road transport in the UK and other OECD countries, yet uptake remains highly uneven between places. This paper examines the geography of privately kept battery electric vehicles across UK small areas using quarterly DVLA vehicle licensing records, linked geodemographically to the 2021/22 UK Output Area Classification. The analysis measures observed private vehicle ownership at neighbourhood scale, enabling within local authority variation to be examined directly. The results show that BEV penetration is strongly right-skewed, with adoption concentrated in affluent professional neighbourhoods, prosperous suburban and rural areas, and dense urban cores with relatively small but rapidly electrifying private fleets. Lower uptake is associated with neighbourhoods characterised by rented tenure, terraced housing and flats, where access to private off-street charging is likely to be more constrained. Partitioning the national time series by geodemographic type reveals that the aggregate adoption curve is composed of distinct trajectories, with some early-adopting neighbourhood types showing signs of slower recent growth while later-adopting groups continue to accelerate. Residuals from the geodemographic baseline are spatially clustered, indicating that neighbourhood composition alone does not explain the geography of adoption. The paper demonstrates the value of combining administrative vehicle records with geodemographic classification to identify where BEV adoption is leading, lagging and diverging from demographic expectation, with implications for a more equitable rollout of charging infrastructure and transport decarbonisation policy. |
| Date: | 2026–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:6q7uf_v1 |
| By: | Charisios Grivas; Mikkel Mandrup; Orimar Sauri |
| Abstract: | The paper considers the problem of variable selection for forecasting electricity spot prices. High-dimensional methods such as LASSO and Elastic Net are widely used for this purpose, and while they exhibit strong predictive performance, their tendency to select over-parameterized models raises questions about interpretability. We evaluate the performance of six variable selection procedures, includingthe recently proposed Boosting Multiple Testing (BMT) method, using an extensive dataset from six regional electricity markets. We assess their performance in terms of both out-of-sample forecasting ac-curacy and model parsimony. We find that, although LASSO and Elastic Net achieve similar accuracy and outperform most screening alternatives, BMT matches their forecasting performance while using less than one-tenth as many variables. Our results reveal that BMT offers researchers and practitioners a substantially more interpretable and computationally efficient alternative to shrinkage methods, without any loss of forecasting accuracy. These findings suggest that the over-parameterization typically associated with regularization methods is not a necessary price for predictive accuracy in electricity price forecasting. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.09213 |
| By: | Toman, Michael A. (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Many of the supply chains for critical minerals run through China, raising concerns over political, national security, and economic risks. In February 2026, the United States hosted representatives of 54 countries and the European Commission to “reshape the global market for critical minerals and rare earths” (US Department of State 2026). The United States proposed a “plurilateral” initiative, the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE). See Blakemore and Harmon (2026), Urecki (2026), Baskaran and Schwartz (2026), Froman (2026), and Northey and Bikales (2026). FORGE would “friendshore” critical mineral supplies among allied countries by geographically diversifying supply chains through investments in each country’s supply capacities.FORGE would create what Vice President JD Vance called a “preferential trading zone” that would establish “reference prices for critical minerals at each stage of production.” The price floors would protect new critical mineral investments by allies from price declines, thus lowering investment risk. To maintain the price floors, coalition countries would impose “adjustable tariffs to uphold pricing integrity.”The United States also announced the establishment of the US Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve, “Project Vault, ” See Baskaran (2026), Northey and Bikales (2026), Urecki (2026), and Brunelli and Moerenhout (2026). a public-private partnership financed by a $10 billion loan from EXIM and $2 billion of private capital. “The goal of the stockpile is to protect the private sector from supply disruptions and price volatility” (Uricke 2026). Vault incorporates deep involvement by the private sector in determining the necessary types and quantities of inventory holdings.This brief first considers the concerns about Chinese dominance of critical mineral markets, the implementation challenges of FORGE, and strategies for addressing those challenges. It then considers how Vault complements FORGE by giving buyers of critical minerals an additional tool for hedging their purchases against upward price shocks. |
| Date: | 2026–08–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:ibrief:ib-26-06 |
| By: | Belcher, Richard; Fecht, Daniela; Weale, Martin |
| Abstract: | This paper explores whether it is possible to use the well-being data collected in the survey Understanding Society to produce estimates of the cost put on local air pollution or proximity to a main road and the value placed on proximity to green space. The conclusions are rather negative. Calculations based on the 2012/13 wave point and the 2016/17 wave give very different answers, and a differences in differences approach shows no significant environmental effect. In the near term it seems unlikely that this approach could form a basis for the inclusion of environmental influences in measures of local well-being. |
| Keywords: | Measures of Well-being; Environmental Costs and Benefits; Small-area Statistics |
| JEL: | I31 Q51 |
| Date: | 2025–10–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2025-14 |
| By: | Schmitz, Tom; Colantone, Italo; Ottaviano, Gianmarco |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the economic effects of environmental policy in the presence of general equilibrium spillovers. Focusing on a major change in U.S. air pollution regulations, we combine microeconometric evidence on local and industry-level impacts with a quantitative spatial equilibrium model that captures trade and labor market interactions. Using reduced-form estimates to discipline the model, we quantify aggregate employment and welfare effects that are not identified by partial equilibrium approaches. We find that the policy substantially reduced fine particle emissions, but also led to sizable employment losses. Ignoring general equilibrium spillovers materially overstates job losses in polluting industries while understating employment losses in clean industries. When both economic costs and emission-related amenity gains are taken into account, the welfare benefits of cleaner air dominate. |
| Keywords: | Employment; Trade |
| JEL: | E24 Q50 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19221 |
| By: | Xin Zhang; Yixuan Wang; Xingyi Hu; Xi Chen |
| Abstract: | We examine how prenatal exposure to air pollution interacts with gender-biased parental investments to shape long-run cognitive performance. Using nationally representative survey data from China, we show that fetal PM2.5 exposure significantly reduces cognitive ability for women, particularly among those with brothers. Our evidence suggests that the family investment channel operates primarily through education rather than health, with gender-biased educational resource allocation compounding negative outcomes for females. Specifically, conditional on the same level of fetal PM2.5 exposure, females receive less homework assistance from their families and attain lower levels of education. |
| JEL: | D13 I14 I24 J13 J16 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35591 |
| By: | Bilal, Adrien; Känzig, Diego |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are an order of magnitude larger than previously thought. Exploiting natural global temperature variability, we find that 1°C warming reduces world GDP by over 20% in the long run. Global temperature correlates strongly with extreme climatic events, un- like country-level temperature used in previous work, explaining our larger estimate. We use this evidence to estimate damage functions in a neoclassical growth model. Business-as-usual warming implies a present welfare loss of more than 30%, and a Social Cost of Carbon in excess of $1, 500 per ton. These impacts suggest that uni- lateral decarbonization policy is cost-effective for large countries such as the United States. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Macroeconomics |
| JEL: | E01 E23 F18 O44 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19203 |
| By: | Moon, Jineon; Chandio, Rabail; Feng, Hongli |
| Abstract: | While wind turbines have been rapidly increasing across the United States, especially in Iowa, research on how they would change the underlying farmland values is limited. We develop a model of farmland value based on the net present value (NPV) approach, extended by implementing landowners’ option to lease their land for wind energy and the effects of the saturation of turbines in the region. Leveraging detailed farmland transactions and wind turbines data throughout Iowa, the empirical estimation generally supports our hypotheses derived from the model. Farmland values increase with wind turbines installed, and a higher wind energy suitability that provides option values. These effects are either attenuated or amplified as the region becomes saturated with wind turbines. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404340 |
| By: | New Zealand Treasury (The Treasury) |
| Abstract: | New Zealand’s Nationally Determined Contributions – Potential Fiscal Costs Associated with Offshore Mitigation provides indicative estimates of the potential fiscal costs that could be associated with purchases of offshore mitigation towards New Zealand’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. It examines potential costs under different domestic emissions scenarios, using purchase price assumptions based on observed international mitigation transactions. The Treasury discloses a Specific Fiscal Risk relating to NDCs through its Economic and Fiscal Updates (EFUs). This publication expands on those disclosures, quantifies the possible fiscal costs, and provides additional explanation. The estimates in this publication represent the Treasury’s best evaluation of possible fiscal costs based on currently available information. The information is provided to support transparency over possible future costs; it does not reflect Government decisions or intentions regarding offshore mitigation. This analysis only considers the potential fiscal costs arising from purchasing offshore mitigation to meet NDCs. Assessing the feasibility of the considered purchase volumes is outside the scope of this analysis, and it also does not seek to reflect the broader range of actions New Zealand may undertake under the Paris Agreement or other climate-related commitments. The results should be read as an assessment of fiscal risk, rather than a set of expected costs, intentions, or recommendations. Actual costs will depend on future policy decisions, market developments, and international arrangements, and the results do not attempt to capture the full range of possible outcomes. |
| Date: | 2026–06–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzt:nzttps:tp26/01 |
| By: | Martin Obradovits; Markus Walzl |
| Abstract: | Consumers increasingly care about the environmental and social responsibility of the production processes used by firms, yet these processes often remain unobservable, even after consumption. We develop a simple model in which firms select either a green or a brown production technology before competing and signaling through prices. Firms observe each other's production choices, while consumers observe only prices. We show that, in the payoff-dominant equilibrium, prices signal when at least one firm produces green, avoiding Bertrand competition. Counterintuitively, raising consumers' environmental concerns or eliminating the information asymmetry may discourage green production and reduce welfare. |
| Keywords: | sustainable production, endogenous technology choice, price signaling, asymmetric information, price competition, label credence goods |
| JEL: | D82 D83 L13 L15 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2026-05 |
| By: | Michael M. Bechtel (University of Cologne, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economic Research & University of St. Gallen); Nils Blossey (University of Cologne); Paul Michel (University of Cologne) |
| Abstract: | Climate action provokes voter opposition when it imposes concentrated and eas ily identifiable costs, but reforms often expose households to uncertain rather than known financial burdens. We argue that this uncertainty allows individuals to de velop subjective cost expectations and narratives, generating widespread opposi tion that extends beyond those most directly exposed. We study these dynamics in the context of Germany’s 2023 heating law, a large-scale reform to decarbonize the housing sector. We combine AI-assisted qualitative interviews and open-ended survey responses from 2, 377 respondents with two experiments to explore the drivers of reform opposition. We show that opposition is prevalent and linked to subjective cost perceptions and anti-reform narratives emphasizing rising energy prices and government overreach. Subjective cost perceptions are only weakly tied to actual heating conditions and vary systematically with partisan identity. Even major policy redesigns fail to generate majority support. These results advance our understanding of when large-scale climate reforms fail. |
| Keywords: | Climate Politics, Public Opinion, Artificial Intelligence, Survey Experiments |
| JEL: | Q48 D84 Q58 C83 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:427 |
| By: | Anouk Levels |
| Abstract: | The EU has introduced an extensive ESG disclosure regime aimed at redirecting private capital to support the transition to a sustainable economy. Yet, it remains unclear whether these disclosure obligations lead to measurable shifts in the allocation and cost of capital to green firms or investments. This review aims to address this gap by developing a conceptual framework that identifies the mechanisms through which both voluntary and mandatory disclosures may influence the allocation and cost of private capital, and by systematically mapping the emerging empirical evidence against these channels. It draws on 99 publications from three academic databases (Scopus, Web of Science, EconLit) and EU institutions, published between 2010 and 2025. The review shows that the evidence base remains emerging and fragmented, but generally points to a positive association between ESG disclosure or performance and access to finance and more favourable funding conditions. At the same time, capital markets seem to anticipate regulatory compliance costs and risks, which can increase uncertainty, and in some settings, adversely affect firms with potential implications for market functioning and capital allocation and pricing. The review further highlights implications for academics and regulators. For academics, it identifies several gaps and limitations suggests avenues for future research. For regulators, it provides cautious support for disclosure regulation, while underscoring the need for credible, usable and proportionate requirements. |
| Keywords: | Regulation; Disclosure; Environmental; social and governance (ESG); capital allocation; cost of capital; Review |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G14 G38 M14 M48 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:867 |
| By: | Khder Alakkari (Faculty of Dentistry, Al Andalus University for Medical Sciences, Tartus, Syria; Department of Financial and Banking Sciences, Faculty of Economics, Tartous University, Syria); Bushra Ali (Department of Financial and Banking Sciences, Faculty of Economics, Tartous University, Syria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether energy transportation uncertainty (ETU) contains state-dependent information about global economic activity. Using monthly data, world industrial production (WIP) is treated as the primary activity measure and the Global Economic Conditions (GECON) indicator as an alternative outcome. The empirical design employs multivariate quantile-on-quantile regression (m-QQR), which maps the response of each conditional quantile of economic activity to each quantile of ETU while accounting for persistence and, where conceptually appropriate, broader risk and financial conditions. WIP growth is modeled with lagged geopolitical risk (GPR), whereas the preferred GECON specification excludes GPR because geopolitical-risk information already enters the information set used to construct GECON. The final 0.05-0.95 quantile grid yields 361 state combinations per outcome. Local estimates reveal economically meaningful heterogeneity and a predominantly negative orientation in several middle and upper WIP states; the mean ETU coefficient is -0.0019 for WIP growth and -0.0009 for GECON. Twenty-four WIP cells and twenty-six GECON cells are significant at conventional pointwise levels. However, none survives false-discovery-rate adjustment or dependence-preserving moving-block-bootstrap inference. Financial-condition controls change local surfaces but do not overturn this central conclusion. Out-of-sample WIP forecasts likewise show no statistically significant average accuracy gain from ETU, although quantile loss and scenario exercises indicate modest state-specific information, with high-ETU scenarios associated with lower conditional median WIP growth. The evidence therefore rejects a universal ETU effect in favor of a more disciplined interpretation: ETU contains local, regime-dependent economic information whose statistical strength is substantially attenuated once broader geopolitical risk, multiplicity, and serial dependence are treated rigorously. |
| Keywords: | energy transportation uncertainty, global economic activity, multivariate quantile-on-quantile regression, geopolitical risk, global financial cycle, block bootstrap, forecast evaluation |
| JEL: | C22 C53 E32 F44 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202622 |
| By: | Shokravi, Hashem; Weiss, Daniel; Spiller, Beia (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | In 2022, the United States launched the Minerals Security Partnership to accelerate the development of diverse critical minerals supply chains in cooperation with industry and allied governments. The partnership brought together 14 countries and the European Union (DOS 2025). It aligned with the Biden administration’s “friend-shoring” strategy, which focused on diversifying supply chains by relocating key manufacturing capacity away from China and toward allied economies. Around the same period, the European Parliament passed the Critical Raw Materials Act, which aimed to reduce reliance on any single country—an implicit reference to China. The act set several benchmarks requiring certain percentages of the European Union’s annual mineral consumption to be produced domestically by 2030: (1) at least 10 percent for extraction; (2) over 40 percent for processing; (3) 25 percent for recycling; and (4) no more than 65 percent of annual processing sourced from any single third country (European Commission 2024). It also promised to reduce administrative burdens and shorten timelines for processing and recycling permits.However, these ambitious goals lacked a clear implementation road map and strategy. Long project timelines and unclear financing limited their feasibility; a critical mineral refinery typically requires years to become commercially mature, even with sustained technological and financial support. Few instruments were available to counter perceived foreign coercion, and cooperating governments were left relying on tariffs or export controls in other sectors, particularly semiconductors. |
| Date: | 2026–08–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:ibrief:ib-26-05 |
| By: | Linnea Lorentzen |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how the 2014 collapse in Brent Crude Oil prices propagated through the Norwegian labor market via worker reallocation. Using Norwegian panel data, I show that workers in non-tradable sectors more exposed to inflows of displaced oil workers experienced significant earnings declines and higher rates of sector exit, documenting a key propagation channel that extends the reach of sectoral shocks beyond the directly affected sector. To quantify the full network of equilibrium adjustments, I estimate a multisector Roy model with correlated sectoral skills and mobility costs. Counterfactual simulations show that non-tradable sector wages declined by up to 32% of the oil sector's wage loss. The magnitude of net worker reallocation between non-oil sectors was equivalent to 63% of the net outflow from the oil sector in the median commuting zone. The model shows how a single sectoral shock can trigger economy-wide labor market adjustment through worker movements. The simulations further reveal that the domino reallocation acts as an equalizing force: shutting it down amplifies both mean wage spillovers and wage dispersion within and across commuting zones. |
| Keywords: | Sectoral shocks, Reallocation, Local labor markets, Wages, Inequality |
| JEL: | F16 F62 F66 E24 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26172 |
| By: | Brinkmann, Johannes (Department of Economics and CAGE, University of Warwick); Datta, Nikhil (Department of Economics and CAGE, University of Warwick and CEP, London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Large supply shocks often raise concerns that retailers exploit rising costs to increase markups. We study the oil-price shock following Russia's invasion of Ukraine using wholesale fuel prices, near-universe daily retail prices across Great Britain, and more than 200 million precisely geolocated searches from a major fuel-price comparison platform. Despite fuel prices rising by 37% over the preceding 21 months with essentially no change in search, the abrupt post invasion increase triggered a more than twentyfold surge in daily search while retail margins contracted sharply. An event-study design shows that this shock-induced search increase causally reduced retail prices and margins, with 95th- versus 5th-percentile exposure implying an 8% margin reduction at the peak. The implied loss to retailer margins peaked at £5.2 million per week, around £650 per station. We rationalise these findings with a model in which large, rapid price increases raise consumer attention and price sensitivity, intensifying competition and compressing margins. More broadly, supply shocks can therefore change not only firms' costs but also the demand conditions governing how those costs are passed through. Consistent with the model's additional predictions, pass-through is approximately complete and symmetric before the invasion, but lower and temporarily exhibits a pronounced rockets-and-feathers pattern afterwards |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:821 |
| By: | Federico Aluigi (Enel Global Energy and Commodity Management); Lucia Caramellino (INdAM-GNAMPA & Dipartimento Matematica, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Paolo Pigato (INdAM-GNAMPA & DEF, University of Rome "Tor Vergata"); Edoardo Scrima (Enel Global Energy and Commodity Management & Dipartimento Matematica, University of Rome "Tor Vergata") |
| Abstract: | The Gasoil options market is illiquid, making it difficult to construct its implied volatility surface directly. However, it is closely linked to the highly liquid Brent options market. In this paper, we jointly model Brent and Gasoil futures prices through a correlated Bachelier local volatility model: the Brent factor is described by a normal mixture diffusion model, while the Gasoil-Brent spot volatility spread is estimated using a data-driven procedure that identifies clusters of historical crack-spread levels and Gasoil-Brent volatility spreads. The resulting bivariate model allows us to compute an implied volatility correction that maps Brent implied volatilities to Gasoil implied volatilities without using illiquid Gasoil option prices as inputs. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the resulting implied volatilities closely match observed Gasoil implied volatilities when benchmarked against more direct approaches. These results suggest that the proposed framework is well suited for modeling refined products and pricing the corresponding financial derivatives. |
| Keywords: | Gasoil; Brent; local volatility; Bachelier model; correlated model; illiquid market; implied volatility; crack spread |
| JEL: | G13 Q41 C58 |
| Date: | 2026–08–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:626 |
| By: | Martino, Edoardo; Parchimowicz, Katarzyna |
| Abstract: | We investigate the hurdles to the effective implementation of sustainable banking regulation. We argue that existing approaches rest on an implicit assumption of verifiable asset quality, which is inconsistent with the informational structure of banking. Accordingly, we develop an analytical framework centred on structural asset opacity and information asymmetry: banks operate through opaque balance sheets and possess superior information about asset quality relative to both markets and supervisors. This opacity generates moral hazard in the asset classification when regulatory incentives tied to 'green' or 'brown' labels induce strategic misrepresentation and adverse selection. We recast the main regulatory tools proposed in the literature. The analysis shows that incorporating sustainability objectives into prudential requirements, particularly capital regulation, is prone to distortion under conditions of unverifiable information, while supervisory tools remain constrained by their reliance on bank-generated data. We advance an alternative approach based on mandatory contractual mechanisms embedded in lending relationships. Properly designed and supervised, these private law tools operate as sorting devices that differentiate between green and brown activities without requiring full information about asset quality. |
| Keywords: | bank capital, green transition, information asymmetry, bank supervision, regulatory private law |
| JEL: | G21 K22 K23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:lawfin:342485 |
| By: | Chen, Jian; Feng, Hongli; Ji, Yongjie; Seaberg, Luke |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404504 |
| By: | Schoenmaker, Dirk; Schramade, Willem |
| Abstract: | There is a long-standing controversy about determining the discount rate at which companies should discount the long-term benefits of sustainability investments (e.g. for climate change mitigation and adaptation). While financial capital is discounted at the standard financial discount rate, this paper argues that companies should discount social and natural capital at the social discount rate. We add a risk parameter to the social discount rate to deal with the macroeconomic risk of rare disasters. Social discount rates are typically lower than financial discount rates. So, if applied, they should lead to higher investments in social and natural capital. |
| JEL: | G32 H43 Q22 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19321 |
| By: | Haskel, Jonathan; Martin, Josh; Brandt, Lennart |
| Abstract: | In recent years UK inflation has risen to levels not seen for decades and then fallen back. What caused this? We estimate a version of the Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) inflation model for the UK using quarterly data from 1990 to 2024. It is a semi-structural model that explains wage growth, price inflation, and short- and long-run inflation expectations, as functions of labour market tightness, shocks to energy and food prices, supply chain disruptions, and labour productivity. The estimated parameters are similar to those for the US, although the UK appears to have stickier wage and price inflation and more persistent effects of food price shocks. UK inflation in 2021 is explained by supply chain disruptions and energy price shocks, and in 2022 and 2023 also by food price shocks and labour market tightness. Inflation expectations have been more well-anchored than predicted by the model. Illustrative projections suggest inflation is ‘sticky’ and so may take time to return sustainably to target. |
| Keywords: | inflation; wages; monetary policy; Beveridge curve; inflation expectations |
| JEL: | E31 E37 E52 |
| Date: | 2025–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2025-12 |
| By: | Tang, Junxian; Zhang, Ruohao; Wan, Xibo; Lei, Zhen; Hu, Xianbiao |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404736 |
| By: | Carolin Nast; Tom Broekel |
| Abstract: | This study examines researchers’ diversification into sustainability research, distinguishing between initial entry and subsequent engagement intensity. While the existing literature emphasises individual-level drivers, we argue that such diversification is also shaped by organisational and relational contexts. Using bibliometric data from the University of Stavanger, Norway, we show that network distance to sustainability-active colleagues is a key predictor: researchers who are structurally closer to engaged peers are more likely to enter the field and deepen their involvement. By contrast, department- and faculty-level sustainability activities show weaker, more context-dependent associations, with department-level effects disappearing once network variables are included. The findings highlight the importance of intra-organisational knowledge networks for sustainability-oriented research transitions. |
| Keywords: | research diversification, sustainability research, organizational context, academic peer influence |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2618 |
| By: | Thomas Lapi (UPCité - Université Paris Cité) |
| Abstract: | Minerals and metals are crucial to modern technologies. Over the past decades, China has built up a dominant position on the value chain of energy and digital technologies through domestic mining, refining and manufacturing. Chinese foreign direct investments (FDI) in the metal sector are integral to this strategy: by establishing a global value chain system, the expansion of Chinese firms abroad contributes to securing the supply of raw materials for domestic industries. This paper assesses global Chinese FDI in the metal sector from 2005 to 2024 and discusses their integration into China's global political strategy. Using quantitative and qualitative analysis, we show that China's investments reflect an integrated supply security approach, with interlinked investments in metals, energy and transport infrastructures, exemplified with a case study in Peru. We identified a sharp decline of Chinese FDI in the Australian metal sector over the period studied, reflecting geopolitical tensions and the tightening relationship between Australia and the United States. Chinese firms preferentially target countries with high-market concentration of strategic materials such as Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Peru. Overall, this mining diplomacy strengthens China's dominant position in the value chains of strategic technologies. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitics, Foreign Direct Investments, Supply chains, Critical raw materials, China |
| Date: | 2026–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05712330 |