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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Shahzada M. Naeem Nawaz (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | Energy transition refers to long-term technological, fuel, infrastructure, market, institutional, and socio-cultural changes in how energy services are supplied and used. According to recent policy discussions, the term means transitioning away from an energy system based on fossil fuels towards increased efficiency, electrification, and decreasing emissions. The literature shows that transitions tend to be path-dependent and intensive in infrastructure. But new technologies can diffuse rapidly as soon as their cost falls if other conditions are met. Recent research provides evidence for four key propositions. First, the flow of clean energy investments is rising. Second, reliability depends on grid capacity, flexibility, and end-use efficiency. Third, finance and institutional risk matter in the case of emerging countries. Fourth, badly-managed distributional consequences could undermine the legitimacy of a transition process. International experience further indicates that targets are operationalized only if procurement processes, network planning, industrial capacity, finance tools, and social protection are considered. For Pakistan, the brief proposes a workable definition of energy transition in terms of the coordinated transition of energy supply, demand, networks, markets, finance, industry, and institutions. The criteria of success include affordability, reliability, energy security, financial sustainability, access, competitiveness, emission reductions, and distributive impact. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:kbrief:2026:158 |
| By: | Daniel Davi-Arderius; Rabindra Nepal; Tooraj Jamasb |
| Abstract: | Whether merchant arbitrage acts as a counter force to the "merit order effect" of solar and wind is important, but little is explored in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). This study fills this gap by studying the impact of charging and discharging stand-alone Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) on spot electricity prices considering their rapid recent growth in the wholesale electricity market. Australia is a global leader in BESS, and this study context is also relevant to other countries decarbonizing their energy mix. We use 5-minute wholesale price data between 2024 and 2025 and apply Quantile Regressions with instrumental variables. We find that stand-alone BESS has impact on spot-prices, but the effect is asymmetric: charging BESS increases the spot price, while discharging them decreases the spot price and thus driving self-cannibalisation. The net impact of charging and discharging on the electricity prices on consumer prices can be negative, especially under large scale penetration of BESS. The findings also offer some policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | electricity, storage, batteries, BESS, Australia, arbitrage |
| JEL: | L50 L94 Q28 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-81 |
| By: | Serati, Reza; Zinn, Anna Kristina (University of Queensland); Layeghy, Siamak; Grün, Bettina; Portmann, Marius; Dolnicar, Sara (The University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | As the world transitions to renewable energies, the structure of national electricity markets will change. Queensland (Australia) is a pioneer market; it is one of the most highly electrified markets internationally. This study analyses drivers of household grid electricity imports using operational smart-meter data from 1, 119, 389 households and two linked surveys. Solar and battery ownership, dwelling type, household size, pool and electric-vehicle ownership, and climate zone are key drivers. Having a solar system, living in a unit and in smaller households is associated with lower electricity imports. Larger households with a pool and electric vehicles import more electricity. We discuss these findings in the context of previous studies of drivers of household electricity use conducted in more traditional power markets. By distinguishing grid imports from total household consumption, we show how distributed generation and storage reshape network demand and provide new evidence for forecasting and planning in highly electrified markets. |
| Date: | 2026–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gqpb4_v1 |
| By: | Adam Bell |
| Keywords: | Electricity network regulation, grid defection, distributed generation, network tariff design, utility death spiral |
| JEL: | L94 Q48 H41 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2613 |
| By: | Riccardo Degasperi (Bank of Italy); Tara Hamadi (Queen Mary University of London); Filippo Natoli (Bank of Italy); Valerio Nispi Landi (Bank of Italy); Kevin Pallara (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We examine the macroeconomic implications of the green transition, focusing on the role of carbon policy. Using high-frequency surprises around regulatory events in the EU Emissions Trading System and a Proxy-SVAR framework, we identify two distinct shocks: one to the current policy stance (current stance shocks) and another to the expected path of the green transition (expected path shocks). Both types of shocks reduce greenhouse gas emissions and economic activity, but differ in their inflationary effects. Current stance shocks raise inflation, while expected path shocks are deflationary. A structural scenario analysis shows that monetary policy easing following a path shock substantially mitigates output losses and moderates the decline in inflation. Moreover, path shocks lower expected growth, depress economic sentiment and increase uncertainty, while also encouraging a reallocation towards greener assets and reducing climate-related risks. These findings align with the predictions of an environmental New Keynesian model. Our results highlight the importance of forward guidance in climate policy, emphasizing its role in shaping macroeconomic expectations and accelerating the transition to a low-carbon economy. |
| Keywords: | climate policy, forward guidance, inflation, green transition |
| JEL: | C3 E3 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1540_26 |
| By: | Raab, Moritz; Kleinebrahm, Max; Vogl, Jonathan; Signer, Tim; Braun, Jannik; Fichtner, Wolf |
| Abstract: | The electrification of private vehicles is a central element of decarbonizing transport and energy systems. Accurately anticipating when and where electric vehicles will be adopted is critical for charging infrastructure planning, distribution grid planning, and energy system operation, yet most diffusion models represent adoption at aggregated spatial scales. Here we introduce an open, high-resolution technology diffusion framework that links household-level electric vehicle adoption with GPS-exact residential locations. The framework combines a synthetic population, household-to-building matching, car ownership modeling, and a national Bass diffusion trajectory to translate aggregate electric vehicle growth into localized adoption pathways. We apply the framework to Germany from 2025 to 2050 and validate its main components against Census marginals, building assignments, and registered vehicle counts, demonstrating its suitability for spatially explicit EV diffusion analysis. The results reveal substantial spatial heterogeneity in electric vehicle diffusion across regions, municipalities, grid cells, and buildings. Differences in household income and the share of single-family houses shape local adoption trajectories, leading to higher adoption in West Germany than in East Germany and slightly higher adoption in rural than urban municipalities in aggregate. The framework provides an open and transferable basis for spatially explicit modeling of household technology adoption. Future research can build on these findings by applying the framework to other technologies or by linking GPS-exact electric vehicle diffusion to charging demand, system operation, and infrastructure planning. |
| Keywords: | Technology diffusion, Electric vehicle adoption, Synthetic population, Spatially explicit modeling, Household-level adoption, Building-level modeling |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kitiip:343996 |
| By: | Yoon, Yeochang |
| Abstract: | As the share of variable renewable energy such as solar and wind rises rapidly, ensuring adequate investment in facilities that prevent outages and maintain reliable supply has become more important. Yet, Korea's wholesale electricity market relies on rigid pricing rules that fail to provide appropriate investment incentives, delaying the expansion of required resources. It is therefore desirable to reform the pricing framework so that market prices reflect demand and supply conditions effectively as signals for investment and system operation. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kdifoc:343514 |
| By: | Kesternich, Martin; Tinnefeld, Vicky Leoni; Werthschulte, Madeline |
| Abstract: | The abrupt shortage of natural gas imports during the 2022/2023 energy crisis following Russia's war against Ukraine forced European countries to rapidly cut consumption. In response, governments and energy providers introduced voluntary gas-saving programs offering financial incentives to residential customers. We study one such program - a critical peak rebate (CPR) launched by one of Germany's largest energy providers - that offered a six-month per-unit bonus for demand reductions at a time when wholesale gas prices spiked but regulated retail prices remained fixed, muting the price signal households actually faced. Combining household meter readings with survey data, we use a difference-in-differences design to "stress test" a CPR scheme. We show that the program-induced average gas savings amount to 13.2 to 17 percent. Participation was more likely among higher consumption, higher income and pro-socially motivated households, who also achieved larger absolute savings. This reveals a trade-off between program effectiveness and distributional considerations in the design of demand flexibility programs. |
| Keywords: | Critical peak rebates, residential energy savings, energy crises, program enrollment, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | C21 D12 D91 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:343563 |
| By: | Okereke, Chukwumerije; Emenekwe, Chukwuemeka; Nnamani, Uchenna; Emodi, Nnaemeka; Diemuodeke, Ogheneruona; Owebor, Kesiena; Michoud, Bruno; Ghersi, Frédéric |
| Abstract: | This research explores the macroeconomic and social impacts of five energy-explicit development pathways for Nigeria's economy: Baseline (BAU), Current Policy Scenario (CPS), Gas Economy Scenario (GES), Renewable Energy Scenario (RES) aligned with Nigeria's 2060 net-zero emissions pledge, and a RES variant with international support (RES+). The analysis leverages soft-linking of the top-down KLEM-NGA macroeconomic model and the bottom-up LEAP-NGA energy system model, utilizing a comprehensive energy-economy database including original input-output and energy balance tables. Under the RES scenario, achieving emissions reductions incurs a 3.5% GDP and 3.2% employment loss by 2060 compared to BAU, or a 4.5% GDP loss compared to GES, which fully utilizes gas reserves to fuel the domestic economy and sustain the trade balance. However, the RES+ scenario, augmented by international aid to bridge the investment gap between CPS and RES, results in GDP and employment performances comparable to GES while reducing emissions to 16 million tons of CO2 equivalent in 2060, versus 151 million tons under GES. This transition, conditional on international aid totaling 880 billion USD over 39 years—an average of 1.1% of Nigerian GDP annually from 2022 to 2060—could pivot Nigeria from a short-sighted gas economy towards a sustainable net-zero future. |
| Keywords: | decarbonization;hybrid energy-economy modelling;KLEM model;LEAP model;low-carbon development;Nigeria |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140493 |
| By: | Paula Prakash; Leon Stolle |
| Abstract: | We analyze how long-term electricity hedging design affects industrial investments in load-shifting capacity. These investments enable flexible electricity consumption and play a crucial role in integrating variable renewable energy. We develop a theoretical model of flexibility investment by a risk-averse industrial firm facing uncertainty about renewable generation and electricity prices. We compare a conventional baseload hedge with a renewable energy profile (REP) hedge, a hedge with a fixed price but varying quantity proportional to renewable generation. The key difference is the consumer’s risk exposure and how it affects flexibility investment. Under the baseload hedge, flexibility provides an uncertain arbitrage value from shifting consumption across hours, so risk aversion reduces investment. Under the REP hedge, flexibility acts as a physical hedge against renewable profile risk by aligning the firm’s consumption with the contracted profile. This insurance value can increase flexibility investment under risk aversion. Numerical simulations illustrate the mechanism for realistic hourly price and renewable generation profiles. We further show that the REP hedge can reduce risk-adjusted total costs for flexible firms once baseload contract prices reflect observed profile risk premia. The results identify long-term hedging design as a potential channel to unlock industrial demand-side flexibility. |
| Keywords: | Industrial demand response, long-term contracts, renewable energy, investment, risk aversion, profile risk |
| JEL: | Q41 Q48 D21 D81 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2180 |
| By: | Ibrić, Muhamed; Kozarević, Emira; Kokorović Jukan, Meldina; Kešetović, Izudin |
| Abstract: | Rising environmental degradation and increasing public awareness have prompted countries to adopt policies to reduce ecological damage. Global warming, climate change, and biodiversity loss pose serious economic and social challenges. At the same time, CO₂ emissions continue to rise, particularly in developing countries like Bosnia and Herzegovina, which faces limited institutional capacity. Transitioning toward net-zero emissions by mid-century is essential to prevent irreversible climate risks. Energy efficiency improvements in energy-intensive sectors are central to mitigation efforts. However, financial constraints limit the widespread adoption of sustainable practices. Private initiatives alone are insufficient, highlighting the importance of public investment in green infrastructure at regional and local levels, filling gaps in private capital and stimulating further private-sector engagement. This paper examines the impact of public spending on environmental protection activities - including waste and wastewater management, pollution abatement, biodiversity and landscape preservation, and ecological R&D - on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Using panel data for EU member states and Bosnia and Herzegovina over 2014-2022, we employ regression models, specifically pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Fixed Effects (FE), and Random Effects (RE). Lagged effects are also considered, recognising that the benefits of public spending may materialise over time. The findings provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of fiscal instruments in mitigating environmental degradation and offer insights for aligning regional and local budgets with the EU's and the Western Balkans' long-term climate neutrality objectives. This research further contributes to the limited empirical literature on the role of fiscal policy in reducing GHG emissions. |
| Keywords: | green public spending, fiscal policy, greenhouse gas emissions, environmental protection, climate neutrality |
| JEL: | H30 H61 H72 H76 C23 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343410 |
| By: | Burke, Josh; Doda, Baran; Laroche-Theune, Trevor; Ortiz Rivera, Victor; Taschini, Luca |
| Abstract: | In 2024, Taiwan launched a carbon fee under the Climate Change Response Act. The fee has applied to covered emissions since January 2025, with the first payments based on 2025 emissions collected in May 2026. As revenues begin to accrue, an important policy question is how they can be used most effectively. Drawing on international experience and in accordance with the 13 use cases of carbon fee revenues set out in Article 33 of the Act, this report explores options for the use of carbon fee revenues in Taiwan. The authors compare three fundamental approaches to using carbon pricing revenues identified in the literature: changing the tax mix, changing spending patterns and changing the fiscal balance sheet. They then analyse four international case studies that offer insights for Taiwan. Two case studies from Japan examine the Special Account for Energy Measures and GX Economic Transition Bonds, while the others review revenue use through the EU Innovation Fund and California Climate Investments. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140676 |
| By: | Ladha, Rijhul; Palia, Ridhi; Das Banerjee, Anannya; Ramji, Aditya |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt56p7q5wk |
| By: | Ashraf, Shafaq; Clinton, Edward; Scheer, Antonina |
| Abstract: | Many companies are beginning to act on climate change by cutting their greenhouse gas emissions. However, the activities and new infrastructure this requires can have both positive and negative impacts on local communities. A central aspect of planning for a just low-carbon transition involves managing the social impacts of new infrastructure related to decarbonisation, such as renewable energy projects and transition mineral mines. If companies are to maintain their social licence to operate and mitigate the risk of public resistance to their operations, they will need to cultivate trust with local communities. The loss of a company’s social licence to operate can translate into material financial risk through project delays and cancellations. We focus on the negative social impacts of activities linked to the low-carbon transition, setting out an exploratory, evidence-based framework that can help investors and companies anticipate such risks. Combining insights from the academic literature with empirical data on corporate disclosure, the framework can support investors with identifying sector-specific priorities for shareholder engagement with companies. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140918 |
| By: | Rubina Ilyas (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Bilal Aftab (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | While net metering is largely celebrated as a clean-energy success story, the cost implications of this system on Pakistan's struggling distribution sector are ignored. Drawing on regulatory data from the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) and the existing literature, this Knowledge Brief summarizes evidence on the relationship between net metering/net billing, distribution losses and revenue recovery. The estimates show that even a small net-metering penetration (2 to 3% of sales) may exacerbate the financial distress of already loss-ridden and weakly recovering utilities. A Composite DISCO Stress Index calculated as a weighted average of losses, net-metering penetration and recovery performance reveals very strong heterogeneity: the stress is concentrated in the weakest base-line distribution utilities rather than in those with highest solar uptake. The evidence demonstrates that net metering is not to be examined separately from distribution-sector and fixed-cost recovery mechanisms. 1.From Net Metering to Net Billing The power sector in Pakistan has suffered from poor cost recovery, high transmission and distribution (T&D) losses, and the accumulation of circular debt. Rooftop solar has witnessed a boom in Pakistan, primarily due to the ever-increasing electricity prices. The net-metered capacity has already crossed 5 GW, and the total distributed solar would be many times the number when off-grid and behind-the-meter systems are accounted for. It was expected to reach 6 GW by FY2024-25 (NEPRA, 2024). Since retail tariffs in many urban slabs touched the level of PKR 35-40 per unit and generation cost from solar was falling, rooftop solar turned out to be a rational hedge against rising electricity tariffs. Net metering was initially introduced in September 2015 by the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) through theDistributed Generation and Net Metering Regulations 2015to incentivize renewable energy uptake, support distribu... |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:kbrief:2026:149 |
| By: | Laura Schuerer (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In many countries, consumption-based emissions are increasingly concentrated at the top of the distribution, and there are growing calls in public debate for climate policy to target emission-intensive luxury consumption more strongly. Yet while financial distributional effects of carbon pricing are well studied, its impact on the distribution of emissions across households remains less well understood. This paper first characterizes the demandside conditions under which uniform carbon pricing increases or decreases consumption-based carbon inequality within countries in a simple partialequilibrium setting with heterogeneous households. Applying the main result to Germany suggests that uniform carbon pricing would slightly reduce carbon inequality, while a stylized approximation of carbon pricing in Germany increases it. The paper then compares differentiated carbon pricing, where luxury goods are priced at a higher rate than necessities, with the standard benchmark of uniform carbon pricing. While the latter is attractive in terms of efficiency, it does not necessarily outperform differentiated pricing, both regarding financial and emissions-based distributional effects. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:456 |
| By: | Runyao Yu; Derek W. Bunn |
| Abstract: | Intraday electricity markets enable participants to adjust energy positions close to delivery, with price forecasts necessary to support trading and the scheduling of flexible electricity resources as well as increasingly responsive consumers. Forecasting model specifications have progressed from using macro-features, such as renewable generation and load, to the micro-features of continuous orderbooks. A recent advanced deep learning model, OrderFusion, explicitly models micro-level buy-sell orderbook interactions. However, despite its superior comparative forecasting performance, it considers only one delivery product at a time, ignoring neighboring-product information. Moreover, when forecasting aggregated price indices such as the liquid German ID3, ID2, and ID1 products, it omits the information contained in price trajectories. In contrast, pretrained time-series foundation models have shown success in financial, renewable-energy, and day-ahead electricity price forecasting. However, their performance on intraday orderbook data remains an open research question of considerable practical importance. In this paper, we propose OrderFusion+, an open-source deep learning model that combines historical orders from the target and neighboring delivery products to forecast probabilistic buy-sell price trajectories. We benchmark OrderFusion+ against forecasting baselines and pretrained foundation models, and investigate dynamic market conditions through the designed dynamic masking mechanism, revealing insights into market efficiency. The implementation and forecasts can be found at: https://runyao-yu.com/OrderFusion/ |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.23598 |
| By: | Charles Kenny (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The reach of electricity in Africa is rapidly extending, not least thanks to an explosion in imports of solar panels. This is good news for the quality of life of people in the region and is the primary route to sustainably extend electricity access, but it imposes some challenges on the utility sector. Most of the panels are being used domestically and at small scale. This worsens what were already considerable financial challenges for utility scale private provision. And it suggests a vital role for publicly funded electricity infrastructure to ensure high-quality, financially sustainable power provision, especially to industry. |
| Date: | 2026–09–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:401 |
| By: | Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Kooths, Stefan; Krohn, Johanna; Liu, Wan-hsin; Reents, Jan |
| Abstract: | Despite higher energy prices and heightened geopolitical risks, the expansion of the global economy slowed only modestly in spring 2026. Pronounced declines in output were confined to the countries in the Persian Gulf region, while GDP continued to expand at a comparatively strong pace in most other economies. Global economic activity is likely to have regained momentum over the summer months. The boom in AI technology continues to fuel activity, stimulating trade and investment and driving economic growth particularly in Asia. An end to the conflict in the Gulf is not currently in sight, and oil prices have risen again recently. Financial markets nevertheless appear to be pricing in the expectation that oil and gas production and transportation in the Gulf region will return to normal in the foreseeable future. However, the risks remain considerable. Forward prices for crude oil decline only gradually as the delivery date moves further into the future. Against this backdrop, we have raised our forecast for global output growth, measured at purchasing power parity, from 2.9% to 3.0% for this year. For next year, we continue to project growth of 3.2%, and we expect the same rate of expansion in 2028. Given the assumed path of energy prices, inflation is likely to ease only gradually. In addition to the risk of another substantial rise in oil prices in the event of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the marked increase in long-term interest rates is also a source of concern. Higher long-term rates are putting additional pressure on public finances and are also making it more difficult to finance private investment. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:344007 |
| By: | Arkadiusz Lipiecki; Nikolaos Kourentzes; Rafal Weron |
| Abstract: | Day-ahead electricity price forecasts support trading and storage decisions, but for battery arbitrage predicting intraday price spreads is more relevant than predicting individual hourly prices. Here we show that a temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) framework that jointly reconciles forecasts of hourly electricity prices and all intraday price spreads consistently improves performance across two major European electricity markets and three different forecasting architectures. Using five years of out-of-sample data from Germany and Spain, we obtain accuracy improvements of up to 19.7% and profit gains of up to 10.4% relative to unreconciled hourly price forecasts. The gains persist even for a highly accurate pretrained TabPFN foundation model. Our results demonstrate that exploiting coherent relationships between economically relevant forecasting targets can improve both predictive accuracy and decision value, and that better statistical forecasts do not necessarily imply better economic decisions. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.23223 |
| By: | Mihaela Simionescu (Faculty of Business and Administration, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania; Institute for Economic Forecasting, Bucharest, Romania); Monica Raileanu Szeles (Faculty of Economic Sciences and Business Administration, Transilvania University of Brasov; Institute for Economic Forecasting, Bucharest, Romania); Beata Gavurova (Technical University of Košice, Faculty of Mining, Ecology, Process Control and Geotechnologies); Urszula Mentel (Rzeszow University of Technology, Department of Projects Management and Security Policy, Faculty of Management) |
| Abstract: | In light of the European Green Deal, contemporary Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) literature emphasizes non-income mechanisms for mitigating environmental degradation. In particular, the decarbonization potential of renewable energy relies heavily on institutional frameworks that facilitate or impede green initiatives. This study examines the Renewable Kuznets Curve across 10 Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies from 2006 to 2025. Alongside standard economic controls - economic freedom, foreign direct investment, private sector domestic credit, and labor productivity- the empirical framework incorporates institutional metrics from the Worldwide Governance Indicators alongside language-specific Google Trends data on corruption-related search volume. Employing Panel Dynamic OLS (PDOLS) and Pooled Mean Group (PMG-ARDL) estimation techniques, the findings reveal that government effectiveness curbs emissions across both short- and long-term horizons, whereas rule of law and corruption control yield substantial long-term ecological benefits. Furthermore, search-based corruption queries serve as a viable real-time proxy for institutional performance, offering practical value for environmental nowcasting. |
| Keywords: | renewable Kuznets curve, Google Trends, pollution, corruption |
| JEL: | C33 Q28 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sko:wpaper:bep-2026-04 |
| By: | Eleonora Cavallaro; Corentin Roussel |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the prudential and environmental implications of an environmentally targeted output floor. We extend an agent-based credit-network model by distinguishing brown and green non-financial corporate exposures and incorporating pollution dynamics and climate damages. We compare the standard Basel output floor with a brown output floor not applied to green non-financial corporate exposures. Both designs significantly affect banks’ Risk-Weighted Asset (RWA) densities, while the brown output floor preserves the reduction in RWA-density dispersion among IRB banks achieved by the standard regulation. Neither policy significantly contracts non-financial corporate lending, as banks adjust primarily through the interbank market. While the standard output floor is associated with significant increases in emissions and pollution relative to the no-output-floor benchmark, no statistically significant environmental deterioration emerges under the brown output floor. These results suggest that environmental targeting may reconcile prudential discipline with green-transition objectives. |
| Keywords: | Output Floor; Climate-Related Financial Risks; Green Prudential Policy; Credit Network. |
| JEL: | G21 G28 Q54 C63 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-29 |
| By: | Linnenbrink, Daniel |
| Abstract: | European policymakers argue that bidding zones with uniform prices ensure fairness in electricity markets. Since the outcome of such a fair spot market is often infeasible due to network constraints, a second stage is needed: the redispatch. I establish a mechanism design result showing that even a minimal fairness restriction on the first stage strictly increases procurement costs for asymmetric dispatches. In detail, I analyze a market-based redispatch mechanism where inc-dec gaming creates arbitrage profits for those producers that benefit the network the least. These results identify a general cost of fairness in sequential markets and question uniform bidding zones in electricity markets. |
| Keywords: | mechanism design, fairness, electricity market design |
| JEL: | D47 D82 L94 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:343566 |
| By: | Alessandro Moro (Bank of Italy); Andrea Zaghini (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Donald Trump's re-election and the United States' renewed withdrawal from the Paris Agreement marked a deterioration in the US green bond market: the share of green bonds in the US market dropped from 1.7 per cent in the pre-Trump period to just 0.6 per cent thereafter. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we estimate a decline of 4.4-6.0 percentage points in the probability of issuing green bonds and a reduction of 20-28 million USD in monthly green bond issuance per issuer. At the same time, the greenium - the typically negative yield spread between green and conventional bonds with similar characteristics - turned positive. This shift in the greenium, coupled with a decline in issuance, points to weakened investor demand for green assets, likely driven by both reduced environmental concerns and less optimistic outlook for environmentally conscious firms. The impact of Trump's re-election and policies on green bonds was stronger in the US than in other markets, highlighting diverging trajectories in sustainable finance at the international level. |
| Keywords: | sustainable finance, green bonds, greenium, political shocks, Trump's presidency |
| JEL: | G11 G12 Q51 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1538_26 |
| By: | Babajić, Amra; Baraković Nurikić, Mirnesa |
| Abstract: | For decades, decision-makers at national, regional, and global levels have been adopting policies aimed at addressing environmental pollution. At the same time, the human population, global economy, and worldwide energy consumption continue to grow. Increasing investment in renewable energy sources has become imperative. In this context, the concept of a regenerative economy emerges, requiring investments in renewables, research, and innovation. The assumption is that countries with lower public debt have more fiscal space to invest in renewable energy, research, and development, while those with high public debt face limited opportunities for such endeavors. The main objective of this paper is to classify Southeast European (SEE) countries according to the level of development of their regenerative economies and to determine whether public borrowing serves as a catalyst for accelerating the transition toward a regenerative economy-or rather poses an obstacle to that path. The analysis will be conducted using indicators such as: Public Debt (% of Gross Domestic Product - GDP thereafter), Renewable Energy Share (%), CO₂ Emissions (tons per capita), R&D Expenditure (% of GDP), and Sustainable Development Goal 15 (SDG15), covering the period from 2010 to 2023. The main findings suggest that SEE countries differ significantly in terms of their regenerative economy development, and that public debt plays a substantial role in shaping their transition. These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers in designing strategies to enhance national and regional competitiveness, attract foreign direct investment, and guide investors-especially since countries with higher R&D investment offer more favorable conditions for green investments and innovation development. Moreover, this cluster analysis can contribute to strengthening regional cooperation in SEE because it facilitates the identification of leader countries and countries that need additional support and knowledge transfer. |
| Keywords: | Public debt, regenerative economy, transition, Southeast Europe |
| JEL: | O40 F64 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343404 |
| By: | Valdecantos, Sebastián |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the tensions that the transition toward a zero‑carbon economy entails for countries relying on natural resource exploitation as the main drivers of (net) exports, as in most South American economies. Given their relatively low diversification and high technology gaps compared to advanced economies, attaining higher prosperity levels driven by sustained economic growth has recurrently been hampered by balance of payments crises. Using a simple long-run demand-led theoretical model with balance of payments constrained growth we show that if the structural limitations in their productive structure are not overcome, the decarbonization of the economy, be it exogenously imposed by the rest of the world or sovereignly decided by each South American country, will be exposed to the dilemma of increasing growth or reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Underpinning this dilemma is the essential role of exports and their associated carbon intensity. Finally, we show that to solve this green transition dilemma, even structural change like the one proposed by the old Latin American structuralist school might not be sufficient – only through a process of green structural change will the long-lastingly desired prosperity of South American countries cease to be an impossible quest. |
| Keywords: | Cambio Climático; Transición Energética; Medio Ambiente; Desarrollo Sustentable; Política Energética; América del Sur; |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4609 |
| By: | Melissa Chow; Cheryl Grim |
| Abstract: | This paper provides information on the restricted-use Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) microdata from 1985-2018. These data are accessible to qualified researchers on approved projects through the Federal Statistical Research Data Centers (https://www.census.gov/fsrdc). |
| Keywords: | MECS |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:26-37 |
| By: | Bell, A. |
| Abstract: | Electricity network costs are an increasing proportion of consumer bills in Great Britain. At the same time and in common with other markets, lower distributed generation costs are enabling a degree of defection from the public network. This creates a risk that consumers not able to defect are left with higher fixed costs, counterbalanced with reduced network reinforcement requirements. This paper proposes that this be managed by policymakers by removing economic regulation from networks for certain consumer types and enabling price discovery. |
| Keywords: | Electricity Network Regulation, Grid Defection, Distributed Generation, Network Tariff Design, Utility Death Spiral |
| JEL: | L94 Q48 H41 |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2648 |
| By: | Onur Polat (Institute of Informatics, Hacettepe University, Beytepe Campus, 06800 Çankaya, Ankara, Türkiye); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether Green GDP conveys a dynamic signal distinct from conventional GDP in terms of persistence by applying the Gaussian semiparametric local Whittle estimator to a global panel of 160 countries over the period 1970–2019. Our findings demonstrate that the cross-country mean memory parameter is 0.99 for real GDP and 0.97 for real Green GDP, with persistence estimates remaining statistically indistinguishable across all 160 jurisdictions. However, regional heterogeneity is markedly stronger for Green GDP than for unadjusted GDP. A component-level decomposition attributes dynamic departures entirely to natural resource depletion, whereas CO2 emissions and waste generation exhibit the same degree of persistence as aggregate economic activity, with CO2 emissions displaying the strongest regional clustering. Extending existing analysis on persistence of a smaller sample of Green GDP to a global sample, these results indicate that current green-accounting frameworks are dominated by environmental adjustments whose stochastic properties closely mirror aggregate macroeconomic dynamics, thereby dampening the informational value of Green GDP as an independent policy signal. |
| Keywords: | green GDP, long memory, local Whittle, fractional integration, environmental accounting |
| JEL: | C22 Q56 O44 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202628 |
| By: | Nikièma, H. Suzy |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140862 |
| By: | May, Liz |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140864 |
| By: | Abrell, Jan; Rausch, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | By extending carbon pricing to buildings and road transport through ETS2, the European Union is undertaking a major policy experiment in market creation. ETS2 overlaps national emissions budgets and technology requirements, raising a general question: when does a legal market govern allocation? We distinguish three functions of market effectiveness: scarcity, exchange, and allocation authority. Completing exchange and allocation authority lowers present-value EU policy costs over 2028-2048 by 25.5%, or EUR 1.33 trillion relative to legal market creation only. Allocation authority accounts for 76% of savings; 88% of member states benefit. Compensating remaining losses requires EUR 6 billion, only 0.2% of ETS2 revenues. Restoring allocation authority raises the allowance price but lowers policy cost, implying that the endogenous carbon price in an ETS is not a sufficient statistic for welfare across institutional designs. |
| Keywords: | Carbon pricing, Emissions trading, Market design, EU ETS2, Effort Sharing Regulation, Equilibrium modelling |
| JEL: | H23 Q54 Q58 C68 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:343564 |
| By: | Pinar Tat (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University); Abdullah Altun (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University); Halit Yanikkaya (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the trade-related intensity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By integrating sector-level FDI inflows with detailed trade-related emission data, the study goes beyond conventional approaches by focusing not only on aggregate emissions but specifically on emissions embedded in exports. Using a comprehensive dataset covering 38 countries and 35 sectors from 2005 to 2020, the analysis provides new insights into how multinational production activities lead to global environmental outcomes. The findings reveal that FDI inflows increase emission intensity in trade in both developed and developing countries. The findings are particularly valid for the manufacturing sectors, regardless of trading partners. These results support the pollution haven and race to the bottom hypotheses, highlighting the need for stronger international environmental coordination. The study thus fills a critical gap in the literature by linking international investment strategies to trade-induced emissions and offers clear policy recommendations to align FDI policies with global climate objectives. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Trade-related Emissions, Emission Intensity, Greenhouse Gases (GHG) |
| JEL: | F18 F21 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–09–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:geb:wpaper:2026-01 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | Azerbaijan's oil revenues are conventionally understood as a function of two variables: production volume and world oil price. This article shows that this two-factor model is no longer sufficient to explain the country's fiscal trajectory. During the first half of 2026, Azerbaijan's oil and gas revenues continued to decline even as global oil prices rose sharply amid instability in the Strait of Hormuz - a combination the standard model cannot account for. Drawing on a sixteen-year dataset (2010-H1 2026) covering national production, price, and revenue, together with field-level data for the BP-operated Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) block and SOCAR's own operations, the article identifies two structural forces operating beneath the price-and-volume surface: a sustained decline in the capital efficiency of ACG's investment (output generated per dollar of capital and operating expenditure) and a parallel decline in the drilling productivity of SOCAR's own fields (output generated per metre drilled). Both indicators point to the same underlying phenomenon, field maturation, but through different mechanisms and with different implications for producers, regulators, and fiscal planners. The article concludes that continued reliance on price and volume alone as explanatory variables for Azerbaijan's oil revenue trajectory will systematically misstate the country's fiscal outlook, and it proposes a set of institutional and technical responses to the productivity decline documented here. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, ACG, SOCAR, SOFAZ, oil production, oil revenues, oil price, well productivity, capital efficiency, opex, capex, petroleum economics, resource depletion |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:343302 |
| By: | Mehdi Davoudi; Minghao Mou; Junjie Qin |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the strategic market participation of a monopolistic energy storage aggregator (ESA) in a day-ahead electricity market. The ESA coordinates geographically distributed storage units, submits a coordinated bid for its portfolio, and may hold financial transmission rights (FTRs). The system operator clears the market through a network-constrained, multi-period economic dispatch, determining generation and load schedules, nodal prices, energy-market payments, and FTR payoffs. We formulate the ESA--system-operator interaction as a Stackelberg game and characterize its equilibrium through a constraint-binding-pattern decomposition of the market-clearing problem. Beyond enabling equilibrium computation, the framework reveals how the ESA can increase its profit by strategically inducing or avoiding particular constraint-binding patterns. It also establishes a novel welfare result: although strategic storage without FTRs is known to weakly improve social welfare relative to the no-storage case, certain FTR positions can overturn this guarantee by strengthening the ESA's incentive to induce particular patterns, causing social welfare to fall below the no-storage level. Motivated by these findings, we develop two system-operator mechanisms for limiting undesirable ESA behavior and its adverse effects on market outcomes and social welfare. Finally, a three-bus study illustrates the theoretical findings, while IEEE test systems demonstrate the scalability of the proposed method. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.15755 |
| By: | Yohann Berthelin (Université Lumière Lyon 2, CNRS, Université Jean-Monnet Saint-Etienne, emlyon business school, GATE, 69007, Lyon, France); Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard (Université Lumière Lyon 2, CNRS, Université Jean-Monnet Saint-Etienne, emlyon business school, GATE, 69007, Lyon, France) |
| Abstract: | We address the question of whether macroprudential policy can extend its mandate beyond correcting financial frictions to also internalizing environmental externalities. We analyze a dynamic general equilibrium model with two externalities: financial frictions and pollution from using brown capital. Our model features heterogeneous agents with infinite lifetimes, of two kinds of capital, polluting and non-polluting, and of a macroprudential policy represented by differentiated loan-to-value (LTV) through a credit constraint faced by entrepreneurs. First, we derive closed-form expressions for optimal differentiated LTV ratios that replicate the social planner’s allocation. Second, the green LTV internalizes financial frictions only, while the brown LTV additionally accounts for pollution externalities, which can turn negative when environmental costs are sufficiently high, indicating that the first-best allocation instead requires a tax-like penalty on the financing of dirty capital rather than a conventional non-negative loan-to-value ratio. Third, the LTV associated with polluting capital becomes more stringent when environmental quality directly affects agents’ utility rather than total factor productivity. |
| Keywords: | Environmental policy, Macroprudential policy, Environmental transition |
| JEL: | E32 Q50 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:2608 |
| By: | Jonathan Beynon (Center for Global Development); Edward Wickstead (Center for Global Development); Tom Veale (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to inform discussions on historical responsibility for climate change by presenting a comparative analysis of historical emissions from numerous datasets, using different measures of emissions, different classifications of developed and developing countries, and covering different time periods. We find that while the various datasets give significantly different estimates of total emissions, they are reasonably consistent in their estimates of developed country shares; that developed countries using the UNFCCC’s Annex I classification are responsible for about half of all GHG emissions since 1850, and less than 40 percent if limited to the 23 Annex II countries with a formal obligation to provide climate finance. These shares are lower if we consider contributions to global warming rather than GHG emissions, much lower if we only consider emissions since 1990, but higher if we restrict analysis to just CO2. We also find that taking account of colonial or consumption emissions makes relatively little difference to our results, and that developed country shares of cumulative per capita emissions (not that we think this is an appropriate measure) are even lower than for cumulative emissions. |
| Date: | 2026–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:755 |
| By: | Charles F. Manski |
| Abstract: | Whatever the policy question under consideration, reasoned and realistic evaluation requires credible policy analysis under uncertainty. This holds particularly to the study of climate policy in the United States, where science and ideology have become increasingly entangled. Welfare economics provides a transparent formal framework to describe and evaluate the subtle tradeoffs that must be addressed when comparing alternative climate policies. The largely qualitative discussions of climate policy in public-facing reports suffer from failure to use welfare economics to assess tradeoffs. I use 2025 reports by the National Academies and by the US Department of Energy as case studies. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.09337 |
| By: | Belmartino, Andrea |
| Abstract: | As global demand for green products accelerates, emerging economies are increasingly seeking to leverage their existing capacities to support green transitions and capture high-growth market opportunities. This study examines the role of green and non-green relatedness in the development of new green specialisations across Argentine provinces, offering insights into potential pathways for green development. Using relatedness density as a measure of knowledge proximity, results show that the likelihood of developing a new green specialisation is positively associated with both green and non-green knowledge assets within a region. The findings highlight that green policies which neglect spatial disparities risk exacerbating regional imbalances in green economic opportunities. The methodology developed in this study offers a transferable framework for other developing economies aiming to assess and strengthen their regional green economy potential. |
| Keywords: | Desarrollo Regional; Diversificación de la Producción; Economía Verde; Argentina; |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4608 |
| By: | Gangadharan, Lata; Gsottbauer, Elisabeth; Leslie, Gordon; Pretto, Madeline |
| Abstract: | Do households comprehend the nature of tail-risks inherent to real-time electricity pricing (RTP) plans? We develop a randomized and incentivized experiment calibrated to real-world price distributions and find that (a) probabilistic risk disclosure, beyond that offered in standard marketing materials, elicits greater demand for real-time pricing products relative to a low-risk fixed-price alternative, (b) products with tail-risk protection might not be highly sought, and (c) the experience of a RTP bill shock drives choice away from RTP. Personal experience receiving a tail price plays a greater role in risk comprehension and moving subsequent choices toward less risky plans than receipt of an additional ex-ante probabilistic risk disclosure. We discuss the implications these findings may have for regulators with a consumer protection mandate. |
| Keywords: | consumer protection;dynamic pricing;experimental economics;information provision;retail electricity markets;risk perception;tail-risk |
| JEL: | C91 D18 D81 L94 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140854 |
| By: | Murphy, David |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125363 |
| By: | Ibrić, Muhamed; Kozarević, Emira |
| Abstract: | The European Green Deal and the Sofia Declaration on the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans emphasise sustainable natural resource management, biodiversity conservation, and the transition to a circular economy as central priorities in pursuing climate neutrality. The main objective is to improve management practices and prevent the overexploitation of natural resources while recognising the critical importance of ecosystem services. This priority is equally relevant for Bosnia and Herzegovina, considering its rich yet vulnerable natural capital, high dependence on natural resources for economic activities, and the need to align with EU environmental standards and sustainable development goals as part of its EU integration process. Across Europe, market-based policy instruments reinforcing the polluter-pays principle, such as environmental taxes, particularly resource taxes, have become increasingly favoured as tools for pollution control and natural resource management. This paper explores the relationship between resource taxes and resource productivity within the green and circular economy context, focusing on the EU member states and Bosnia and Herzegovina from 2014 to 2023. Using a panel dataset and static panel regression models - including pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Fixed Effects (FE), and Random Effects (RE) - the study examines whether fiscal instruments, especially resource taxes, are associated with improvements in resource productivity and progress toward EU environmental performance targets. The expected findings will provide empirical insights into the role of fiscal policy in supporting the green transition and identify potential pathways for Bosnia and Herzegovina to fulfil its commitments under the Sofia Declaration for the Western Balkans, the European Green Deal, and relevant national strategies. |
| Keywords: | resource taxes, environmental taxes, resource productivity, circular economy, panel regression |
| JEL: | H21 H22 H23 C23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343368 |
| By: | George, Babu (Alcorn State University) |
| Abstract: | Published estimates of how hyperscale computing load affects household electricity prices disagree about sign as well as magnitude. This article argues that much of the disagreement reflects three identification problems that existing designs often absorb rather than model directly. Large loads choose low-cost locations, making exposure endogenous. Average revenue per kilowatt-hour cannot distinguish a change in rates from a change in the composition of customers within a class. In jurisdictions that allow construction costs into rates before a plant enters service, bills may change years before the associated load appears in sales data. I examine each problem using public data. With state-level price and sales data for 2023 and 2024 for the 50 states and the District of Columbia, I find direct evidence of siting selection: the 2023 residential price level explains 22 percent of the cross-state variance in subsequent non-residential sales growth. That sorting appears to follow a state’s general cost level rather than the depth of the discount already received by large customers, a more tractable pattern for identification. Non-residential sales growth has no detectable relation to residential price growth, although the design lacks power to detect elasticities below roughly 0.9, so the null is not substantively informative. The residential-to-industrial price ratio rises with load growth, but decomposition shows that seven-tenths of the movement comes from falling non-residential prices rather than rising residential prices; the same pattern appears relative to the commercial class, and half of the association disappears after adding a four-category regional control. Translating the reduced-form slope into an implied price for incremental load shows that a pure composition account would require these kilowatt-hours to be served at about one-third of the class average, a demanding but possible figure whose confidence interval cannot adjudicate the issue. The evidence favors a regime-dependent interpretation of the literature and indicates that future work should treat capital deployment, rather than realized energy sales, as the central treatment variable. |
| Date: | 2026–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4cvd2_v1 |
| By: | Karim Khan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Fida Muhammad Khan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | Why this conflict matters for Pakistan The strait of Hormuz used to be the topic discussed in school and college classrooms. It was a distant maritime location, with people believing to be just an ordinary route through which sea transport took place and the fact that it borders Iran was… |
| Keywords: | Pakistan Iran-US conflict, Strait of Hormuz crisis, Pakistan energy security, Hormuz trade disruption, Pakistan LNG imports, Iran US tensions, Pakistan economic risks, global oil supply crisis, Pakistan foreign policy, regional geopolitical conflict |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:kbrief:2026:146 |
| By: | Deng, Zichen (Dept. of Economics, University of Amsterdam); Niu, Runxi (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | Pollution from regulated sources can cross administrative boundaries; consequently, jurisdiction-based treatment assignment may fail to accurately capture policy exposure at a given receptor. To address this, we construct a predetermined treatment intensity by combining regulatory assignment with pre-policy source characteristics and atmospheric source–receptor linkages, and use it in a continuous treatment difference-in-differences design. A formal framework and simulations clarify when cross-boundary transport attenuates jurisdiction-based comparisons and when the source–receptor design recovers policy effects. Applied to China’s Two Control Zones policy, both designs indicate post-policy reductions in local SO2 emissions. For SO2 dry deposition at receptors, the source–receptor estimate is negative and statistically significant, whereas the jurisdiction-based estimate is also negative but not statistically distinguishable from zero. The same exposure measure reveals declines in crop value per hectare in more exposed villages, which are less apparent in jurisdiction-based comparisons. Crop-specific response patterns are consistent with a sulfur-nutrient channel. |
| Keywords: | spillovers; air pollution; atmospheric transport; source-receptor design; Two-Control Zones; agriculture |
| JEL: | C21 C23 O13 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2026_013 |
| By: | Pinar Tat (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University); Sebnem Sahin (UNDP Eurasia); Abdullah Altun (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University); Halit Yanikkaya (Department of Economics, Gebze Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the existence of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions leakage within the framework of global value chains (GVCs) by comparing production-based and consumption-based accounting. We contribute to the literature by applying the most recent value-added decomposition methodology developed by Wang et al. (2017) and by using sector-level data from 186 countries across 25 sectors for the period 1990-2023. Our descriptive evidence demonstrates substantial differences between PBE and CBE and reveals the existence of emissions leakage across countries and sectors. Developing countries and upstream sectors appear as net exporters of emissions, while developed countries and downstream sectors emerge as net importers through global value chains. The empirical results demonstrate that GVC participation plays a central role in shaping this difference. The forward GVC participation is positively associated with net emission exports, whereas backward GVC participation is positively related to net emission imports. These findings highlight that emission responsibility cannot be adequately assessed using production-based measures alone. Instead, effective policies should account for consumption-based measures to reach an equitable responsibility-sharing framework in an increasingly fragmented global economy. |
| Keywords: | Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Leakage, Production and Consumption-Based Accounting, Forward GVC Participation, Backward GVC Participation |
| JEL: | F18 F64 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–09–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:geb:wpaper:2026-02 |
| By: | Lorenzo Bencivelli (Bank of Italy); Alessio Ciarlone (Bank of Italy); Emidio Cocozza (Bank of Italy); Andrea Gerali (Bank of Italy); Andrea Perin (Bank of Italy); Carmine Porello (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the major structural transformations that have been reshaping the global automotive industry since the COVID-19 pandemic. Organized as a series of questions and answers, it analyses key developments across market dynamics, electrification, trade policy, supply chains, and digital technology. The post-pandemic recovery has been strikingly uneven: while China's vehicle sales surpassed pre-pandemic levels, advanced economies - particularly in the European Union - remain significantly below 2019 volumes, reflecting weakened affordability and policy uncertainty. China's rapid rise as the world's largest electric vehicle producer and exporter, driven by sustained industrial policy, battery supply chain dominance, and an estimated 30 to 45 per cent manufacturing cost edge over Western competitors, has fundamentally altered competitive dynamics. European, Japanese, and Korean original equipment manufacturers face mounting pressure from Chinese electrification, trade fragmentation, and the transition to software-defined vehicles, where Chinese firms are estimated to have a two- to three-year lead. US and EU defensive measures-including prohibitive tariffs and countervailing duties-have proved only partially effective, with EU passenger car imports from China rising by nearly 30 per cent in 2025. The paper concludes that diverging industrial, trade, and environmental policies are fragmenting global automotive markets into distinct regional ecosystems, raising costs, complicating investment, and accelerating a structural realignment of competitive advantage. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicles, trade policy, automotive industry |
| JEL: | L62 F13 O33 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1030_26 |
| By: | Beltrán-Hernández, Andrés (Universidad Católica del Norte); Lufin, Marcelo |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the key determinants shaping the dynamic relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in 220 European NUTS2 regions from 2000 to 2021, using a bivariate latent growth curve model (BLGM). Unlike traditional methods, the BLGM framework addresses a critical gap in modeling latent growth processes, variable interactions, and regional heterogeneity, significantly advancing previous methodologies. The approach integrates determinants of regional economic structures, energy consumption patterns, labor market characteristics, and educational attainment. The results highlight the crucial role of financial structure, spatial centrality, and educated development, offering insights for adaptive and effective regional climate and sustainability strategies and emphasizing the need for coordinated policies that integrate technological innovation, territorial planning, labor market diversification, and sustained investment in education. |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:83jf6_v1 |
| By: | Paul Simshauser |
| Keywords: | Renewables, energy-only markets, project finance, Asian wind derivatives, Asian swaps |
| JEL: | D52 D53 G12 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2621 |
| By: | Alexandra-Anca Purcel (Universitatea Babeș-Bolyai) |
| Abstract: | This study explores the effect of environmental protection effort, both the adoption and the size of environmental protection expenditure, as well as the energy dependence on total factor productivity (TFP) at the firm level. To this end, I focus on an extended sample of Romanian firms observed during the period 2020–2023. The results, consistent across different specifications, indicate that firms engaged in environmental protection activities have, on average, higher TFP than similar firms but that environmental protection expenditures induce additional costs, negatively influencing TFP. Moreover, energy intensity has a positive and significant effect on TFP. Overall, these findings provide important insights into the relationship between these indicators at the firm level and may lead to the development and improvement of more tailored associated policies. |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:carp26:09 |
| By: | Papachristos, George; Papadonikolaki, Eleni; Morgan, Bethan |
| Abstract: | Sociotechnical transitions are mostly seen in the literature as processes where actors and technologies in small niches peripheral to an organizational field, accumulate momentum, scale up, aggregate, and eventually bring about large-scale regime change. Foundational examples include the British transition from sailing ships to steamships and the American transition from traditional factories to mass production. Herein lies a paradox, transitions concern large scale system change for example transition to electric cars or renewable energy, but large-scale options for technological change driven by incumbents have received less attention in transitions research. This is an important opportunity for transition research to draw on the literature of project management research on large-scale projects. We bridge transitions research and project management research by exploring speciation and aggregation from both perspectives. We illustrate how this bridge may be instantiated drawing on published research and interviews on six megaprojects that have been instrumental in the digital transformation of UK construction: (i) the Channel Tunnel Rail Link, (ii) Heathrow Terminal 5, (iii) London Olympics, (iv) Crossrail, (v) Thames Tideway and (vi) High Speed Two. The speciation of digital technology seeds the process of aggregation and UK industry transition which is driven by incumbents at the organizational field core and ripples outward to its periphery. This is a reverse process to the one mostly considered in transition research where change initiates in small niches peripheral to an organizational field and propagates until it eventually brings about large-scale change to its core. |
| Keywords: | aggregation;BIM;project management;speciation;transitions |
| JEL: | J50 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140980 |
| By: | Muhammad Jehangir Khan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Muhammad Ajmal Khan (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics); Nasir Iqbal (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | Pakistan faces a dual labour-market risk: first, a domestic layoff risk arising from energy, freight, credit, and demand shocks across textiles, construction, transport, and retail sectors; second, a returnee and migration-placement risk, in case of weak Gulf labour markets. In this study, we focus on the domestic layoff risk while treating returnees as a linked vulnerability.In the absence of appropriate interventions, about 3 million additional workers could join Pakistan's unemployed, which can push the unemployment rate from 6.9 percent to 10.4 percent.The US-Israel military strikes on Iran (28 February 2026) and Hormuz closure have created the need for a domestic employment assessment for Pakistan. Sector-level analysis across manufacturing/textiles, construction, transport, retail, and agriculture, which employ 79.7 million workers, reveals that the layoff risks range from 670005 (early resolution) to 3 million (systemic crisis).The April 25, 2026, fuel increase (High Speed Diesel (HSD): Rs 380.19/litre; petrol: Rs 393.35/litre) directly worsens employment in the transport sector. As in Pakistan, around 73 to 84 percent of the workers are informal; therefore, official statistics may understate/underrepresent income and underemployment losses.Our suggested measures (Immediate) consist of concessional textile credit, electricity tariff reform, income support in the transport sector, BISP support extension to the returnee, reallocation of the PSDP, and urea availability on a priority basis to reduce the employment layoffs. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:kbrief:2026:145 |
| By: | Kircher, Roland; Klühspies, Johannes; Fritz, Eckert; Witt, Michael |
| Abstract: | Magnetic levitation is a promising technology for transport application. Compared to traditional transport technologies, such as rail-wheel systems, it offers total friction-less (EMS) or almost friction-less motion (EDS). Today there exist two fundamentally different maglev system technologies, the electromagnetic system (EMS) and the electrodynamic system (EDS). Both system technologies are in competition with conventional rail-wheel systems, mainly in high-speed transportation (EM and EDS) but also in low- and medium speed transportation (EMS). In high-speed transportation maglev systems can compete even with air transport. On a world-wide scale, there exist maglev systems for the high- speed and medium-speed sector, some in commercial operation and some in testing phase. The paper discusses the costs and benefits of the two maglev system technologies based on technical, environmental, social and economic aspects and criteria. These include energy consumption, emissions as well as investment for the infrastructure and estimation of operational costs. In addition, some soft criteria such as passenger comfort and acceptance are considered. As far as available, testing data and operational experience from operating maglev systems and application projects are used. The pros and cons of each system technology (EMS and EDS) for high-speed, medium-speed, passenger and freight transport are discussed in order to evaluate the application potential of maglev technologies. Keywords: Maglev system technologies, environmental aspects, technical and economical aspects, comparison with existing transportation technologies |
| Abstract: | Die Magnetbahntechnlogie bietet vielversprechende Anwendungsmöglichkeiten im Verkehrssektor. Im Vergleich zu konventionellenn Rad-Schiene-Systemen ermöglichen sie einen vollständig reibungsfreien (EMS) beziehungsweise nahezu reibungsfreien Betrieb (EDS). Es lassen sich zwei grundlegende Systemtechnologien unterscheiden: das elektromagnetische Schwebesystem (EMS) und das elektrodynamische Schwebesystem (EDS). Beide stehen vor allem im Hochgeschwindigkeitsverkehr in Konkurrenz zu konventionellen Rad-Schiene-Systemen; EMS-Technologien kommen darüber hinaus auch für den Niedrig- und Mittelgeschwindigkeitsverkehr in Betracht. Im Hochgeschwindigkeitssegment können Magnetbahnen zudem mit dem Luftverkehr konkurrieren. Weltweit befinden sich verschiedene Systeme für den Hoch- und Mittelgeschwindigkeitsbereich entweder bereits im kommerziellen Betrieb oder in der Erprobung. Der Beitrag vergleicht Kosten und Nutzen von EMS- und EDS-Magnetbahnen anhand technischer, ökologischer, gesellschaftlicher und wirtschaftlicher Kriterien. Untersucht werden unter anderem Energieverbrauch und Emissionen, Infrastrukturinvestitionen und Betriebskosten. Ergänzend fließen qualitative Aspekte wie Fahrgastkomfort und Akzeptanz ein. Soweit verfügbar, stützt sich die Analyse auf Testdaten und Betriebserfahrungen realisierter Systeme und Anwendungsprojekte. Auf dieser Grundlage werden die jeweiligen Stärken und Schwächen von EMS und EDS für den Hoch- und Mittelgeschwindigkeitsverkehr sowie für den Personen- und Gütertransport gegenübergestellt und ihre Anwendungspotenziale bewertet. Schlagwörter: Magnetbahnsysteme; EMS; EDS; Umweltaspekte; technische und wirtschaftliche Bewertung; Verkehrstechnologien; Systemvergleich. |
| Keywords: | Technology, Environment, Comparison, Assessment, Transport Economy, Sustainability |
| JEL: | R4 R41 R49 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343525 |
| By: | Papadonikolaki, Eleni; Krystallis, Ilias; Morgan, Bethan |
| Abstract: | Absorptive capacity in construction is crucial for effectively managing change amidst the twin transition (digital and green transitions) that is significantly affecting existing practices in the sector. Concentrating on construction sector, this research examines how firms assimilate and use digital decarbonisation practices to improve their performance. Building on a multi-method qualitative dataset comprising interviews with 53 industry experts in the UK construction sector, archival data, and validation of our findings through focus group data, the study highlights the vital role of absorptive capacity in enabling firms to navigate and benefit from digitalisation and sustainability initiatives. The findings indicate that the potential absorptive capacity (acquisition and assimilation of knowledge) takes place mainly in firms whereas the realised absorptive capacity (transformation and exploitation) takes place mainly in the boundaries of projects they deliver. This offers a mutually reinforcing cycle of exploration and exploitation that can equip firms to meet contemporary challenges and institutional demands effectively to cope against the twin transition. Our study contributes with a four-phase process model for understanding the organisational change management processes required for the twin transition in project-based settings. Most existing research on absorptive capacity focuses on either organisational or industry-level dynamics, our study examines the loci of absorptive capacity (e.g., by examining firm and project boundaries) in a highly complex, project-driven industry such as construction. |
| Keywords: | dynamic capabilities;green transitition;knowledge absorption;net zero;digitalisation;digital innovation |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–03–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140977 |
| By: | Anat Assoratgoon |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of misperception in shaping the inflation dynamics of Thailand following the 2022 energy price shock. For this purpose, I evaluate whether a New Keynesian model of a small open economy featuring a signal extraction problem can replicate the inflation and broader macroeconomic dynamics observed in Thailand during this episode. The signal extraction problem arises because agents observe the terms-of-trade shock but cannot distinguish its constituent components, transitory versus persistent, and must therefore infer the underlying state via the Kalman filter. Four information regimes are compared: full information, symmetric limited information in which both the central bank and the private sector misperceive, and two asymmetric cases in which only one agent misperceives while the other correctly identifies the shock. A simple distance-based comparison against Thai data indicates that the symmetric limited information regime most plausibly characterizes the prevailing dynamics of the 2022 Thai economy. The asymmetric cases further reveal that the consequences of misperception depend critically on who gets it wrong. Central bank misperception produces a prolonged inflation surge alongside a relatively muted output contraction, while private-sector misperception keeps inflation contained at the cost of a sharper and more persistent output decline – a stark illustration of the inflation–output trade-off in action. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Signal extraction; Energy price shocks; Small open economy; New Keynesian model; Misperception; Inflation dynamics; Bank of Thailand |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 F41 Q43 D84 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pui:dpaper:263 |
| By: | Johannes Brinkmann (University of Warwick); Nikhil Datta (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Large supply shocks often raise concerns that retailers exploit rising costs to increase markups. We study the oil-price shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine using wholesale fuel prices, near-universe daily retail prices across Great Britain, and more than 200 million precisely geolocated searches from a major fuel-price comparison platform. Despite fuel prices rising by 37% over the preceding 21 months with essentially no change in search, the abrupt post invasion increase triggered a more than twentyfold surge in daily search while retail margins contracted sharply. An event-study design shows that this shock-induced search increase causally reduced retail prices and margins, with 95th- versus 5th-percentile exposure implying an 8% margin reduction at the peak. The implied loss to retailer margins peaked at £5.2million per week, around £650 per station. We rationalise these findings with a model in which large, rapid price increases raise consumer attention and price sensitivity, intensifying competition and compressing margins. More broadly, supply shocks can therefore change not only firms’ costs but also the demand conditions governing how those costs are passed through. Consistent with the model’s additional predictions, pass-through is approximately complete and symmetric before the invasion, but lower and temporarily exhibits a pronounced rockets-and-feathers pattern afterwards. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1627 |
| By: | Till Armbruster; Elina Dilger; Théo Konc; Linus Mattauch |
| Abstract: | How damages, economic impacts and policy responses jointly shape the politics of climate change remains poorly understood. In this article, we synthesise the recent wealth of empirical contributions on political outcomes from damages and mitigation policy with a focus on populism. We present a framework connecting climate policies and climate-induced extreme weather events to populist demand, addressing how the rise of populism shapes feasibility of climate policies. The framework comprises income effects, changes in the physical and social environment, behavioural restrictions and symbolic motives induced by climate damages and mitigation measures. We argue that how these elements translate into populist demand depends on both policy design – such as compensation and policy sequencing – and institutional context – such as media framing, procedural inclusion, crisis management and political competition. Climate policies and broader communication on net-zero goals should be designed to prevent climate damages and policy from becoming drivers of populism. |
| Date: | 2026–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0109 |
| By: | Raouf Boucekkine; Natalia Hritonenko; Yuri Yatsenko; Ullrika Sahlin |
| Abstract: | We study optimal growth in a Ramsey economy with irreversible pollution, where the natural absorption capacity is non-monotonic and non-concave a la Forster. In the absence of pollution control, the capital dynamics decouple from pollution, and we characterize a simple threshold on the maximal absorption capacity above which the optimal path is sustainable and below which an optimal regime of irreversible pollution sets in. We then introduce an optimal abatement pollution control to assess whether irreversible pollution ceases to be optimal. We derive a four-dimensional dynamical system for capital, consumption, pollution and the (shadow) cost of pollution, coupled with an algebraic rule for optimal abatement, which is eventually reduced to dimension three, with abatement linearly entering the pollution dynamics. Our main result is that optimal abatement shifts the irreversibility threshold but does not eliminate it. More importantly, we show that embedding the Forster's pollution dynamics into a Ramsey growth model generates a novel hybrid ecological irreversibility condition that is invisible in pollution-only frameworks. Coupling ecosystem curvature with the social discount rate, it is structurally robust and preeminent over all feasibility conditions amenable to policy intervention and defines the boundary between a world where sustainability is achievable and one where it is not. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.12693 |
| By: | Bilal Aftab (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | Key Takeaways: The Machike-Thallian-Taru Jabba White Oil Pipeline (MTT-WOP) is the unaddressed strategic gap in Pakistan's south-to-north petroleum corridor. In lieu of its absence, the northern regions will be heavily reliant on a unstable and inefficient road tanker network, leading to a series of supply shocks and high logistics costs that would last much longer than they should. Joint utilization of MS and HSD in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces (around 11 million MT per year) already crosses the upper bound of the pipeline's initial capacity. More so, the project's viability is reliant on precise demand projections and is currently at the risk of a 4 million MT supply-demand gap opening up, which requires a clear plan, whether expansionary or through other sources. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:kbrief:2026:159 |
| By: | Jakub Daněk; Frédéric Dobruszkes |
| Date: | 2026–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/413757 |
| By: | Alice Chiocchetti (Paris School of Economics, Institute for Public Policies); Ninon Moreau-Kastler (Paris School of Economics, International Tax Observatory) |
| Abstract: | The extraction of oil, gas, and minerals generates large economic rents, yet it remains unknown how commodity price windfalls are distributed across the global networks of multinational enterprises (MNEs) that dominate production in most resource-rich countries. We study this question by combining administrative records covering the worldwide profits, revenues, and employees of large MNEs across all jurisdictions, with comprehensive data on their physical extraction activity at the affiliate level. Extractive MNEs have a substantial presence in countries in which they do not extract: downstream and consumption countries, as well as low-tax jurisdictions. Combining differences in firms’ commodity specialization with heterogeneous market price changes in a shift-share design, we find that windfall profits are partly diverted to low-tax jurisdictions. For every additional dollar of consolidated windfall profit, $0.8 accrues to extractive affiliates, $0.2 to tax havens, and nothing to the rest of the group. This diversion intensifies during booms: the share of profits booked in tax havens rises by one percentage point for every 10% increase in group profitability. |
| Keywords: | multinational enterprises |
| JEL: | H25 H26 F63 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbp:wpaper:044 |
| By: | Klühspies, Johannes; Blow, Laurence E. |
| Abstract: | Maglev technology offers significant advantages for urban passenger transportation, including reduced noise pollution and zero particulate emissions, making it particularly valuable in densely populated areas. However, challenges such as high capital costs remain substantial. Medium-speed maglev systems hold the greatest potential in applications like urban ring lines, airport links, and routes through topographically challenging areas. For short-distance urban transport, traditional systems like trams and buses are still more practical and cost-effective. A key concern is the aesthetic design of maglev guideways, as their current brute, concrete appearance makes them unappealing for broader market adoption. While cost, design, and infrastructure challenges currently limit the widespread use of urban maglev, its potential to enhance urban mobility remains significant. Keywords: Disruption; Barriers to Acceptance; Infrastructure Design; Environment, Urban Planning, Mobility Challenges, Cost-Benefit. |
| Abstract: | Die Magnetschwebetechnologie bietet erhebliche Vorteile für den städtischen Personenverkehr, darunter eine geringere Lärmbelastung und das Fehlen von Feinstaubemissionen, wodurch sie insbesondere für dicht besiedelte Räume attraktiv ist. Gleichzeitig bleiben Herausforderungen wie hohe Investitionskosten erheblich. Mittelgeschwindigkeits-Magnetschwebebahnsysteme besitzen das größte Potenzial bei Anwendungen wie städtischen Ringlinien, Flughafenanbindungen und Strecken in topographisch anspruchsvollen Gebieten. Für kurze innerstädtische Distanzen sind konventionelle Systeme wie Straßenbahnen und Busse weiterhin praktikabler und kostengünstiger. Ein wesentlicher Kritikpunkt betrifft die ästhetische Gestaltung der Magnetbahnfahrwege, da ihre derzeit oft massive Betonoptik einer breiteren Marktakzeptanz entgegensteht. Obwohl Kosten-, Gestaltungs- und Infrastrukturfragen die großflächige Einführung urbaner Magnetschwebebahnen derzeit begrenzen, bleibt ihr Potenzial zur Verbesserung der städtischen Mobilität erheblich. Schlagwörter: Disruption; Akzeptanzbarrieren; Infrastrukturdesign; Umwelt; Stadtplanung; Mobilitätsherausforderungen; Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse. |
| Keywords: | Barriers to Acceptance, Disruption, Innovation, Infrastructure Design, Environment, Urban Planning, Cost-Benefit, Technology Assessment |
| JEL: | R40 R41 R49 R42 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esconf:343524 |
| By: | Enisse Kharroubi |
| Abstract: | The conflict in the Middle East and the subsequent disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz have triggered an unprecedented shock to the global economy. Using historical data from the IMF/University of Oxford Portwatch database on maritime traffic, this paper empirically examines some of the potential economic and financial consequences of disruptions to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The analysis highlights the role of this chokepoint as a global supply indicator, with traffic disruptions acting as a global stagflation-inducing force. While commodity prices — especially energy prices — tend to increase after an adverse shock to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, such negative shocks are systematically followed by a combination of lower global output and higher global consumer prices. In addition, negative shocks to traffic in the Strait of Hormuz tighten financial conditions, with spreads on both advanced economies (AEs) corporate bonds and emerging market economies (EMEs) sovereign bonds widening significantly. These findings underscore the Strait of Hormuz’s critical role in the global economy and highlight avenues for future research on chokepoint shocks. |
| Keywords: | chokepoints, Strait of Hormuz, maritime traffic, global supply shocks, financial conditions |
| JEL: | E23 E24 E31 E32 E52 J64 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1378 |
| By: | Madiha Riaz (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics) |
| Abstract: | This knowledge brief examines the ongoing structural shift in the global monetary and energy-pricing system from the long-standing U.S. dollar-based petrodollar regime toward the emerging Petroyuan framework. Drawing on historical analysis, theoretical insights, and empirical data from 1970 to 2026, it explores how oil pricing shapes global liquidity, inflation, exchange rates, capital flows, and financial stability. The petrodollar system historically reinforced U.S. dollar dominance and enabled the large-scale recycling of oil revenues into global financial markets. Recent structural changes - geopolitical fragmentation, China's rise, Western sanctions, and diversification of energy trade - have begun to erode these relationships. The emerging Petroyuan introduces a more multipolar monetary landscape. For oil-importing economies such as Pakistan, currency diversification may offer marginal but meaningful benefits, yet external vulnerabilities remain binding constraints. Pakistan's structural deficit with China - $9.5 billion in imports versus $1.2 billion in exports in H1 FY2025-26 - combined with $29-30 billion in Chinese bilateral debt, creates a paradoxical yet compelling case for a calibrated yuan-based settlement that could reduce dollar dependence without deepening single-counterparty risk. The brief concludes that the transition will be gradual and potentially destabilizing without coordinated domestic and multilateral policy responses. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:kbrief:2026:152 |
| By: | Ribiero, Ashley |
| Abstract: | This research brief explores the landscape of electric bikes (e-bikes) and ridership in California, including the evolution of e-bike policies, rider use and demographics, and features of emerging e-bike safety programs. It discusses crash data reporting and explores limitations for capturing e-bike crash data, providing insights into potential solutions with a case study on Marin County. Findings indicate that decision-making when riding ebikes may be influenced by environmental factors, while safety courses offer avenues to engage both students and guardians in the learning experience to increase confidence and skill-building. This brief also explores ways in which hospitals and trauma centers may help alleviate data limitations with their collection of injury reporting relating to e-bikes, and how advances made in Marin County for crash data collection may provide a standard for the rest of the state. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, e-bike crash, e-bikes, California, Marin County |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt694622qc |
| By: | Turner, Ryan; Jafari, Afshin; Tiwari, Sapan (RMIT University); Both, Alan; Singh, Dhirendra; Pemberton, Steve; De Gruyter, Chris |
| Abstract: | Testing transport interventions using city-scale transport models is typically resource intensive, requiring specialist expertise, substantial data and computational capacity. As a result, such modelling is often concentrated on major projects and larger metropolitan areas, while smaller interventions and mid-sized regional cities have limited access to comparable modelling capabilities. This is particularly relevant to active travel, where cycling infrastructure decisions frequently need to be made with relatively limited modelling and decision-support capacity. This study presents FASTrack, a cloud-based planning support software system that integrates agent-based modelling, behavioural simulation, and interactive scenario visualisation to enable proposed cycling infrastructure assessment. A case study is applied to the City of Greater Bendigo, a mid-sized regional Australian city representative of the planning contexts that existing platforms often overlook. FASTrack was developed through a co-design process over three years with local government planning partners, to address the need to rapidly assess infrastructure scenarios, quantify changes in cycling demand and behaviour, and inform infrastructure planning and investment appraisal. These requirements underpin its design, including the use of probabilistic modelling and a cloud-based workflow designed to support rapid, on-demand scenario testing with minimal specialist modelling expertise. Scenario outcomes are presented through interactive dashboard-style interfaces that detail estimated changes in network use, level of traffic stress, mode shift, cycling usage, emissions, and cost-benefit analysis aligned with national appraisal guidelines. This study demonstrates how co-design can directly shape the development of planning support systems by translating practitioner requirements into accessible modelling platforms for cycling infrastructure planning |
| Date: | 2026–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:q69rv_v1 |
| By: | Onur Polat (Institute of Informatics, Hacettepe University, Beytepe Campus, 06800 Çankaya, Ankara, Türkiye); Yuxiang Ye (School of Economics and Finance, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether decomposing the geopolitical risk (GPR) index into oil- and non-oil-related components yields incremental explanatory power for U.S. industry stock market volatility. Using daily conditional volatilities derived from a GJR-GARCH model with time-varying skewness and kurtosis (GJR-SK) across 49 Fama-French industries, we estimate autoregressive specifications with exogenous inputs (ARX). Each model incorporates rich macro-financial controls, including market portfolio volatility, the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index, and the shadow-rate-augmented federal funds rate. Through a sequence of properly nested F-tests, we address three core empirical questions: (i) whether non-oil GPR adds predictive content beyond the macro baseline; (ii) whether oil-specific GPR provides incremental information once non-oil GPR is controlled for; and (iii) whether a geographic decomposition across eight oil-producing regions enhances explanatory power beyond aggregate metrics. We find that non-oil GPR is incrementally significant in 35 of 49 industries. Conditional on non-oil GPR, aggregate oil-related risk remains incrementally significant in 23 industries, while its regional breakdown increases significance to 29 industries. Estimated coefficients demonstrate marked sign heterogeneity: for oil-intensive sectors, non-oil GPR reduces volatility while oil-specific risk elevates it, supporting a commodity-price information-resolution channel; for non-oil-intensive sectors, the pattern reverses, consistent with the classical risk-aversion channel of Bloom (2009). Regionally, geopolitical risk originating in the Middle East, Venezuela, and Asia systematically amplifies industry volatility, whereas risk originating in Russia and Africa exerts a stabilizing, volatility-dampening effect. |
| Keywords: | stock price volatility, industry sectors, geopolitical risk, oil geopolitical risk, ARX, nested F-test |
| JEL: | C22 G12 F51 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202626 |
| By: | Lichtenthäler, Sarah; Bähr, Cornelius |
| Abstract: | Die Elektrifizierung des Verkehrs erhöht den Bedarf an Lithium, Nickel und Kobalt signifikant. Gleichzeitig verursacht die Herstellung der Fahrzeugbatterien einen großen Teil der Emissionen im Lebenszyklus eines Elektroautos, das im Betrieb emissionsfrei ist. Durch ein effizientes Batterierecycling können beide Herausforderungen adressiert werden, sodass Elektrofahrzeuge und deren Batterien klimafreundlicher werden. Werden die Batterien der bis 2045 in Europa neu zugelassenen Elektroautos am Ende ihres Lebenszyklus recycelt, lassen sich verglichen mit der Primärmaterialherstellung knapp 385 Millionen Tonnen CO₂ sparen. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:343508 |
| By: | Lewin, Peter; , Danyelle; Zinn, Anna Kristina (University of Queensland); MacInnes, Sarah; Dolnicar, Sara (The University of Queensland) |
| Abstract: | Hotel sustainability research shows that pro-environmental behaviour‑change interventions are often effective in field experiments, but widespread adoption by hotels remains limited. One possible explanation is that hotels lack external recognition that would make adopting these measures visible to guests and rewarding to managers. This study investigates whether university-affiliated sustainability badges could serve as a recognition mechanism, testing their effectiveness across two studies drawing on Signalling Theory and Social Identity Theory. In an online experiment (N=975), prospective hotel guests viewed simulated hotel booking pages featuring one of the four badge options, or no badge, across budget, mid-range, and luxury hotel pricing segments. All badge variations increased perceived hotel sustainability and guests’ sense of belonging to a community of environmentally conscious travellers (group identification). Badges did not trigger negative emotions, but the university affiliated logo did not perform better than a generic environmental logo on almost all measures, suggesting these effects are based on the presence of any badge, rather than the university partnership specifically. Semi-structured interviews with ten hotel managers found conditional receptivity to university-affiliated badges, primarily through a sense of shared values and community orientation with the partnering institution (collective values) rather than the badge’s function as a credibility signal. These findings suggest that collective values and shared identities, rather than signalling, may be the more promising mechanism for engaging hotels and guests around sustainability initiatives, and offer an encouraging direction for potential university-hotel partnerships that may translate into the future implementation of pro-environmental behaviour change interventions. |
| Date: | 2026–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2pv9b_v2 |