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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Segura-García, Cristian Camilo; Botero-García, Jesús Alonso; Hurtado-Rendón, Álvaro Arturo |
| Abstract: | Climate change has gained significant relevance in recent years, encouraging many countries to implement decarbonization policies aimed at reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. While much attention has been paid to the design of these policies, there is a growing interest in analyzing their macroeconomic implications. This study evaluates the impact of the energy transition on economic growth in Colombia using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model is calibrated for the year 2022 and simulates the Colombian energy economy over a ten-year horizon. Results indicate that an ambitious and sustained policy promoting non-conventional renewable energy could increase GDP growth by up to 0.5 percentage points compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Additionally, climate shocks such as El Ni˜no may negatively affect economic performance; however, early investment in renewable energy technologies can partially offset these adverse effects. |
| Keywords: | Computable General Equilibrium (CGE), Renewable Energy, Energy Transition, Economic Growth, Colombia, Policy Simulation |
| JEL: | D58 O44 Q43 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126529 |
| By: | David Andrés-Cerezo (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and BSE); Natalia Fabra (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | Decarbonizing the power sector requires major investments in renewables and storage. Though often seen as complementary, these technologies can act as substitutes from an economic perspective. When renewable output correlates positively with demand and capacity is low, storage may lower renewable profits, and viceversa, especially with strategic thermal producers. In markets with negatively correlated renewable availabilities, like solar and wind, storage can benefit one while disadvantaging the other. These findings inform policies on the timing and effectiveness of mandates or subsidies, suggesting that solar investments may need an initial push before supporting storage. Simulations of the Spanish market show that, at high solar penetration, storage boosts solar but reduces wind profits. |
| Keywords: | Energy storage, renewable energy, mandates, market power, transmission constraints, electricity markets. |
| JEL: | L94 Q40 Q42 Q48 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2025_2522 |
| By: | Varela Varela, Ana; Shawhan, Daniel; Funke, Christoph; Domeshek, Maya; Robson, Sally; Witkin, Steven; Burtraw, Dallas; Ünel, Burçin |
| Abstract: | While some see carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) as crucial for cost-effective decarbonization, it faces opposition based on air pollution and equity concerns. To understand this cost–air pollution trade-off, we simulate the potential impacts of allowing CCUS deployment in the US power sector under plausible climate policies. We show that the existence of this trade-off critically depends on the underlying policy, which affects the type of generation CCUS could displace: under a policy that incentivizes coal generation, CCUS might improve health outcomes and reduce costs. When we disaggregate our results, we find that the air pollution (PM2.5) effects of allowing CCUS, positive or negative, are largest for Black and low-income populations. We show that allowing CCUS can yield energy-cost savings, particularly benefiting lower-income communities. Our sensitivity analyses highlight the effects of uncertainties on costs and benefits. Overall, this study contributes to our understanding of broader distributional consequences of allowing CCUS. |
| Keywords: | air pollution; and storage; electric power; energy justice; environmental justice; incidence; utilization; carbon capture |
| JEL: | D63 H23 Q20 Q52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126047 |
| By: | Bruno Moura; Michael G Pollitt |
| Keywords: | Solar PV, spatial-neighbour effect, energy policy |
| JEL: | L94 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2523 |
| By: | Margherita Giuzio; Sujit Kapadia; Dilyara Salakhova; Katia Vozian |
| Abstract: | Using data on verified carbon emissions from the EU emissions trading system, this paper examines the relationship between leverage and transition performance for highly polluting and mostly non-listed ETS firms over 2013-2019 that are responsible for approximately 20% of total EU emissions. Panel regression analysis indicates that, up to a certain point, firms with higher leverage have lower emissions and improved emission efficiency in subsequent years. But beyond that point, greater leverage is associated with worse transition performance. Exploiting a 2015 policy shock aiming at toughening the emissions regime in a difference-in-differences setup, we also identify a group of firms that appear too indebted to transition towards low-carbon technology. |
| Keywords: | Low-Carbon Transition; Climate Change; Debt Finance; Leverage; Green Investment; EU ETS |
| JEL: | C58 E58 G32 Q51 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1011 |
| By: | RANAIVOSON, Tojonirina Miada Zafindraibe; LAZAMANANA, Pierre Andre |
| Abstract: | The massive release emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which has emerged as a pressing global concern, entails detrimental consequences for both the environment and the economic system. As a consequence, the severity of the consequences of climate change has disrupted economic issues and strategies. Major reorientations of economic policies, particularly climate policies, mainly based on CO2 emission levels have been adopted during various Conferences of the Parties (COP).This issue has therefore led us to investigate the effects of such climate policies on the economy as a whole. To achieve our objective, a climate DSGE model reflecting the characteristics of Madagascar has been implemented. The results of impulse response function reveal that dynamic carbon taxation proves more effective in reducing CO2 emissions compared to a quota policy, which is a source of volatility. Climate finance, on the other hand, is insufficient to stimulate the economy if not combined with carbon pricing. |
| Keywords: | Climate policies, Greenhouse gases, Carbon pricing, DSGE, Conferences of the Parties, Climate change |
| JEL: | H23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126384 |
| By: | Gabriel D. Patr\'on; Di Zhang; Lavinia M. P. Ghilardi; Evelin Blom; Maldon Goodridge; Erik Solis; Hamidreza Jahangir; Jorge Angarita; Nandhini Ganesan; Kevin West; Nilay Shah; Calvin Tsay |
| Abstract: | Energy storage can promote the integration of renewables by operating with charge and discharge policies that balance an intermittent power supply. This study investigates the scheduling of energy storage assets under energy price uncertainty, with a focus on electricity markets. A two-stage stochastic risk-constrained approach is employed, whereby electricity price trajectories or specific power markets are observed, allowing for recourse in the schedule. Conditional value-at-risk is used to quantify tail risk in the optimization problems; this allows for the explicit specification of a probabilistic risk limit. The proposed approach is tested in an integrated hydrogen system (IHS) and a battery energy storage system (BESS). In the joint design and operation context for the IHS, the risk constraint results in larger installed unit capacities, increasing capital cost but enabling more energy inventory to buffer price uncertainty. As shown in both case studies, there is an operational trade-off between risk and expected reward; this is reflected in higher expected costs (or lower expected profits) with increasing levels of risk aversion. Despite the decrease in expected reward, both systems exhibit substantial benefits of increasing risk aversion. This work provides a general method to address uncertainties in energy storage scheduling, allowing operators to input their level of risk tolerance on asset decisions. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.27528 |
| By: | Natalia Fabra (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros); Gerard Llobet (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the limitations of spot markets in providing adequate investment incentives to support zero-carbon investments in electricity markets. In contrast, properly designed long-term contracts have the potential to mitigate price volatility and facilitate the funding of the investments. A theoretical model is developed to analyze contract design under conditions of moral hazard and adverse selection, emphasizing the trade-offs that arise when exposing firms to price and quantity risk. The findings inform optimal contract design for nuclear and renewable energy projects, offering policy recommendations to enhance investment incentives while minimizing productive inefficiencies and excessive rents. |
| Keywords: | Contract design, adverse selection, moral hazard, risk aversion, renewable energies, nuclear power plants. |
| JEL: | L13 L94 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2025_2521 |
| By: | Amady Léchenet |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of extending Flow-Based Market Coupling (FBMC) on electricity price convergence in Europe. Market coupling mechanisms, particularly FBMC, play a crucial role in harmonizing electricity prices between bidding zones by optimizing cross-border capacity allocation. We analyze the transition from the Available Transfer Capacity (ATC) approach to FBMC, highlighting its advantages for improving price con- vergence. Using daily day-ahead electricity prices from 12 member countries of the Core Capacity Calculation Region (CCR), we construct a price dispersion indicator. Our results show a temporary reduction in price spreads in the region Core Europe following the market coupling reform. The short-term effect is significant but transitory, whereas structural deter- minants such as gas prices remain dominant. Comparing countries that adopted Flow-Based (FB) mechanism in 2015 with those that joined in 2022, we find evidence of a permanent and significant reduction in price spreads for the late adopters. |
| Keywords: | Electricity wholesale markets, market coupling, price convergence |
| JEL: | Q41 Q42 Q48 L94 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-41 |
| By: | Juan Cortina; Claudio Raddatz; Sergio Schmukler; Tomas Williams |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how firms use green versus conventional debt and the associated firm- and aggregate-level environmental consequences. Employing a dataset of 127, 711 global bond and syndicated loan issuances by non-financial firms across 85 countries during 2012-23, the paper documents a sharp rise in green debt issuances relative to conventional issuances since 2018. This increase is particularly pronounced among large firms with high carbon dioxide emissions. Local projections difference-in-differences estimates show that, compared to conventional debt, green bond and loan issuances are systematically followed by sustained reductions in carbon intensity (emissions over income) of up to 50 percent. These reductions correspond to as much as 15 percent of global annual emissions. Green bonds contribute to reducing emissions by providing financing to large, high-emitting firms, whose improvements in carbon intensity have significant aggregate consequences. Syndicated loans do so by channeling a larger volume of financing to a wider set of firms. |
| Keywords: | carbon emissions; corporate bonds; firm growth; green debt; green transition; sustainability; syndicated loans. |
| JEL: | F33 G00 G01 G15 G21 G23 G31 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2025-012 |
| By: | Jonathan Colmer; Eva Lyubich; John Voorheis |
| Abstract: | The transition to clean energy represents a fundamental and important shift in economic activity. We present new facts about workers in clean and legacy energy sectors between 2005 and 2019 using linked, administrative employer-employee data for all W-2 workers in the United States. We show that both clean and legacy energy establishments hire a disproportionate share of non-Hispanic White and male workers compared to the working population, that workers rarely move from legacy to clean firms, and that, conditional on education, workers do not earn more in clean firms than in legacy firms. The occupational categories of jobs at clean firms differ notably from occupations at legacy firms and, on average, tend to be performed by workers with higher levels of education. Regional overlap in employment opportunities is not sufficient to facilitate worker transitions from legacy to clean firms. Substantially lower earnings outside of the energy sector combined with low mobility between legacy and clean firms suggests that the costs of the clean transition on workers in legacy fossil fuel sectors may be substantial. At the same time workers moving into clean activities from outside of the energy sector experience significant increases in earnings and greater job stability, suggesting that clean jobs are "good jobs" for those who can access them. |
| Keywords: | Clean energy transition, earnings, employment, transitional costs, mobility |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2127 |
| By: | Franziska Funke; Théo Konc; Linus Mattauch; Michael Pahle; Antonia Schwarz; Stephan Sommer |
| Abstract: | We propose a theory of public appraisal and employ it to explain divergent public opinion on similar economic policy instruments. In a survey-based policy design experiment with 13, 665 respondents from seven European countries, we study how policy perceptions and support rates differ across carbon pricing designed as “carbon taxation” and “emissions trading”. While there is considerable cross-country variation in the appraisal of both instruments, the emissions trading design reduces opposition in all countries except Germany. We find that the treatment effects of instrument design on policy perceptions are substantial: carbon taxes are consistently more often perceived as increasing the state budget, harming the economy, and increasing costs of living and production. Using causal mediation analysis, we ascertain that lower opposition to emissions trading is partly due to its perception as less costly. Overall, our results suggest that the public consistently perceives taxes as a “tougher” measure, and that emissions trading appeals more to European constituencies not already supportive of climate policy. |
| Keywords: | political economy, climate change, cap-and-trade, carbon tax, perceptions |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 D78 H23 P48 |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0076 |
| By: | Elvis K. Ofori (Zhengzhou University, China); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Ernest B. Ali (Ekaterinburg, Russia); Bright A. Gyamfi (Istanbul, Turkey); Isaac Ahakwa (Hefei, China) |
| Abstract: | Since the industrial era, the selection of energy sources to facilitate economic advancement has been criticized because of the resulting ecological calamity. This has prompted the introduction of radical approaches such as ISO 14001, which tackles the drivers of pollution. Therefore, this study analyses the ISO 14001 - environment nexus from three distinct points of view BRICS, MINT, and G7 countries from 1999-2020. Also, our work fills an extant gap in assessing structural change and innovation's role in augmenting the relationship. The Driscoll and Kraay (DK) estimator is employed as an analytical tool for cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity, while the fixed effects approach provides sufficient robustness checks on the findings. While some outcomes vary per bloc, others are relatively similar across the three (3) blocs. That is: (1) ISO 14001 shows an abatement portfolio for only the G7 bloc, and the Full sample. (2) Structural change showed potential for abating carbon emissions in all blocs. (3) Technology led to an increase in Pollution in all blocs except for the MINT economy. (4) ICT in the form of mobile phones also help reduce carbon emissions in all three blocs except for their composite. (5) Renewable energy helps reduce carbon emission in all blocs except for G7. ISO 14001 shows the potential to encourage green growth. As a result, policymakers should work to enhance ISO 14001 certification, which might serve as a management tool to promote sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | ISO 14001, Sustainable development, Structural change, Technology, BRICSMINT, G7 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbm:wpaper:24/021 |
| By: | El Achkar, Jean H. |
| Abstract: | Kuwait faces mounting pressure to diversify its energy mix, reduce its dependency on landfills, and meet climate targets under Vision 2035. Despite producing over 2.6 million tonnes of organic waste annually, including food and agricultural residues, sewage, and petroleum sludge, bioenergy currently remains absent from Kuwait’s energy portfolio. This paper makes a case for anaerobic digestion (AD) as a strategic enabler of Kuwait’s low-carbon transition. Regional bibliometric analysis reveals Kuwait’s peripheral role in Middle Eastern bioenergy research, characterised by limited collaboration and a lack of thematic leadership. Building on this, the study models a technoeconomic scenario for treating 50% of Kuwait’s organic waste via AD, estimating 394 Gigawatt hours (GWh) of renewable electricity annually, 197, 538 tonnes of CO₂-equivalent emissions avoided, and over $1.81 billion in profit over 20 years. A comparative framework highlights the fiscal and environmental superiority of AD over landfilling. The findings are translated into a policy roadmap that emphasises pricing reform, integration of the circular economy, public-private investment, and alignment of science and policy. AD offers Kuwait the opportunity to transform waste into renewable assets, enhance energy security, meet climate goals, and lead in regional sustainability. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129838 |
| By: | Natalia Fabra (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros); Gerard Llobet (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the implications of counterparty risk - stemming from potential defaults or renegotiations by buyers - on long-term contract markets. It develops a theoretical model highlighting how opportunistic buyer behavior leads to higher contract prices and underinvestment, potentially leading to the collapse of the contract market. The paper also evaluates public-policy interventions, including public subsidies, financial guarantees, regulator-backed contracts, and collateral requirements. While these measures can reduce price-related inefficiencies and promote investment, they involve trade-offs such as moral hazard or the reliance on costly public funds. These findings are particularly relevant for sectors with capital-intensive, long-lived assets exposed to price volatility, especially electricity markets, where underinvestment in renewable energy could delay the energy transition and hinder carbon-abatement goals. Simulations using data for the Spanish electricity market are used to quantify the theoretical predictions of the model. |
| Keywords: | Imperfect contract enforcement, counterparty risk, renewable investments, bilateral contracts, vertical integration, dynamic incentives. |
| JEL: | L13 L94 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cmf:wpaper:wp2025_2523 |
| By: | Avirup Chakraborty |
| Abstract: | The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), the worlds largest cap-and-trade carbon market, is central to EU climate policy. This study analyzes its efficiency, price behavior, and market structure from 2010 to 2020. Using an AR-GARCH framework, we find pronounced price clustering and short-term return predictability, with 60.05 percent directional accuracy and a 70.78 percent hit rate within forecast intervals. Network analysis of inter-country transactions shows a concentrated structure dominated by a few registries that control most high-value flows. Country-specific log-log regressions of price on traded quantity reveal heterogeneous and sometimes positive elasticities exceeding unity, implying that trading volumes often rise with prices. These results point to persistent inefficiencies in the EU ETS, including partial predictability, asymmetric market power, and unconventional price-volume relationships, suggesting that while the system contributes to decarbonization, its trading dynamics and price formation remain imperfect. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.22341 |
| By: | Raimi, Daniel (Resources for the Future); Whitlock, Zach (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Energy development often provides substantial economic benefits as well as changes to environmental and health conditions for host communities. In this analysis, we seek to understand one aspect of energy development with important short- and long-term implications: how state governments collect and use oil and gas revenues. We focus on the top US oil- and gas-producing states: New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Texas, which offer three distinct models for collecting and using revenue to manage current and future fiscal health. We find that New Mexico collects the largest share of revenues among the three states (roughly 20 percent of production value in 2023) and invests roughly half in long-term savings funds that will support education and other government services in perpetuity. Texas collects roughly 10 percent of production value and invests roughly one-fifth in long-term savings earmarked for statewide education, along with some investments in short-term savings. Pennsylvania collects just 3 percent and saves little to none for the future. Although New Mexico’s approach robustly supports statewide fiscal health, none of these states have policies to protect the finances of the local governments in host communities (specifically, counties, municipalities, and special districts), which may face significant fiscal risk from short-term booms and busts and longer-term risks from an energy transition. |
| Date: | 2025–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-25-17 |
| By: | Ruaridh Macdonald; Filippo Pecci; Luca Bonaldo; Jun Wen Law; Yu Weng; Dharik Mallapragada; Jesse Jenkins |
| Abstract: | MacroEnergy.jl (aka Macro) is an open-source framework for multi-sector capacity expansion modeling and analysis of macro-energy systems. It is written in Julia and uses the JuMP package to interface with a wide range of mathematical solvers. It enables researchers and practitioners to design and analyze energy and industrial systems that span electricity, fuels, bioenergy, steel, chemicals, and other sectors. The framework is organized around a small set of sector-agnostic components that can be combined into flexible graph structures, making it straightforward to extend to new technologies, policies, and commodities. Its companion packages support decomposition methods and other advanced techniques, allowing users to scale models across fine temporal and spatial resolutions. MacroEnergy.jl provides a versatile platform for studying energy transitions at the detail and scale demanded by modern research and policy. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.21943 |
| By: | Lohawala, Nafisa (Resources for the Future); Linn, Joshua (Resources for the Future); Bioret, Lucie (Resources for the Future); DeAngeli, Emma (Resources for the Future); Roy, Nicholas (Resources for the Future); Spiller, Beia (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a retrospective analysis of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2007 regulations targeting NOx emissions from heavy-duty vehicles. We replicate EPA’s on-road emissions model and compare the assumptions used in its analysis—vehicle sales, scrappage rates, NOx emission rates, and vehicle use—with actual outcomes in 2022. This comparison evaluates the accuracy of EPA’s assumptions and their long-term impact on NOx reduction estimates, providing a basis to assess the accuracy of the similar methodology used in the recent 2022 standards. We find that EPA’s most significant prediction error was overestimating scrappage rates of older vehicles, which led to underestimated emissions both with and without the policy; on net, this resulted in an underestimation of emissions reductions by 0.52 million tons. Conversely, EPA underestimated miles traveled by older vehicles, which, on net, overestimated emissions reductions, as these high-emission vehicles traveled more than expected. Anticipatory sales effects before 2007 had minimal effects on emissions in 2022. Although certified emissions have consistently been below required standards, this discrepancy had only a minor effect on EPA’s overall emissions predictions. |
| Date: | 2025–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-25-12 |
| By: | Hansj\"org Albrecher; Jinxia Zhu |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the optimal policy for using an allocated carbon emission budget over time with the objective to maximize profit, by explicitly taking into account present-biased preferences of decision-makers, accounting for time-inconsistent preferences. The setup can be adapted to be applicable for either a (present-biased) individual or also for a company which seeks a balance between production and emission schedules. In particular, we use and extend stochastic control techniques developed for optimal dividend strategies in insurance risk theory for the present purpose. The approach enables a quantitative analysis to assess the effects of present-bias, of sustainability awareness, and the efficiency of a potential carbon tax in a simplified model. In some numerical implementations, we illustrate in what way a higher degree of present-bias leads to excess emission patterns, while placing greater emphasis on sustainability reduces carbon emissions. Furthermore, we show that for low levels of carbon tax, its increase has a positive effect on curbing emissions, while beyond a certain threshold that marginal impact gets considerably weaker. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.27384 |
| By: | Ugo Panizza (Geneva Graduate Institute and CEPR); Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Geneva Graduate Institute and CEPR); Shuyang Shi (Geneva Graduate Institute); Mitu Gulati (University of Virginia, Law School) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the existence, magnitude and drivers of the sovereign greenium: the yield discount on sovereign and quasi-sovereign green bonds relative to conventional bonds. Using a dataset of 332 matched pairs of green and conventional bonds issued between 2014 and 2023 by sovereigns, sovereign-backed agencies, and multilateral development institutions, we analyze secondary-market pricing to capture both crosssectional and time-varying heterogeneity. We find a small but statistically significant greenium, averaging about 2 basis points for advanced economies and nearly 13 basis points for emerging markets. The greenium is larger for lower-rated issuers and increases when climate transition risks become more salient or when issuers are more vulnerable to climate change. Interaction effects indicate that global awareness of transition risks and domestic climate vulnerability jointly amplify the greenium. While green sovereign bonds trade at lower yields, the resulting fiscal savings are economically modest relative to total interest expenditures. A novel analysis of bond documentation shows that sovereign green bonds contain no binding commitments regarding environmental outcomes, suggesting that the observed greenium reflects symbolic rather than contractual sustainability value. |
| Keywords: | Green bonds; Sovereign debt; Greenium; Sustainable finance; Climate risk; ESG investing |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 H63 G15 G12 |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp16-2025 |
| By: | Allegra Pietsch; Dilyara Salakhova |
| Abstract: | The green bond market has experienced rapid growth in recent years, driven by increasing global awareness of climate change. However, the existence, magnitude and driving forces behind the “greenium” in the secondary market - a price premium associated with green bonds - remain subject to debate. This study investigates the evolution of the greenium in the euro area from 2016 to 2023, encompassing a period of significant macroeconomic shifts, including the COVID-19 pandemic, energy crisis, and the subsequent period of heightened inflation and monetary tightening. Our analysis applies a k-prototypes matching algorithm to construct a closely matched panel of European green and conventional bonds and documents a novel finding that retail investors' demand for green bonds partly drives the greenium. Sensitivity of retail investors' financial conditions to the macroeconomic situation and particularly tighter monetary policy may explain investors' appetite for green bonds and thus the greenium time dynamics. Finally, we confirm investors' preferences for green bonds with higher credibility of both bonds and bond issuers. |
| Keywords: | Green Bonds; Greenium; Retail Investors; Sustainable Finance; Corporate Sustainability |
| JEL: | G12 G14 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1010 |
| By: | Sam Marginson |
| Abstract: | A New Collective Quantitative Goal for climate finance has been agreed, with a minimum of 300 billion USD to be provided for climate action in developing countries by 2035. A further goal was agreed to increase this value to 1.3 trillion USD. Many developing countries have emissions reductions targets that are conditional on receiving sufficient finance for those targets to be achieved. This paper considers the trade-off of an extra trillion dollars in investment for the additional emissions reductions that will be achieved as a result. It considers whether those same emissions reductions could be achieved with lower impact on the income of the source regions for the investment and finds that it cannot. Should Annex I regions attempt to achieve equivalent emissions reductions themselves, the result is that incomes are lower in almost all regions and by up to 2.7% in 2030, with even some notable free riders being worse off. Output is lower in most regions and investment is also lower in most of the Annex I regions that shoulder the additional emissions mitigation burden. Globally the impacts are similarly negative, with global investment 3.5% lower in 2030. Conversely, in the case where developing countries receive the additional finance, impacts are significantly positive, with incomes up to 1% higher in 2030. However, even when the conditional emissions reductions are undertaken, they are insufficient to stop global emissions from continuing to rise until the end of the decade. More ambition is necessary. |
| Keywords: | Nationally Determined Contributions, climate policy, Computable General Equilibrium, greenhouse gas emissions, climate change, climate finance |
| JEL: | Q54 C68 O44 P18 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-358 |
| By: | Frédéric Vinas |
| Abstract: | ncreases in oil prices have persistent effects on manufacturing firms, causing their financial ratios to deteriorate for two to three years, while decreases have no significant impact. The impact of oil price increases is also greater for large companies, which are more dependent on raw materials, and for energy-intensive sectors. <p> Les hausses de prix du pétrole ont des effets persistants sur les entreprises de l’industrie manufacturière, via une dégradation de leurs ratios financiers pendant 2 à 3 ans, tandis que les baisses n’ont pas d’effet significatif. L’impact des hausses de prix du pétrole est aussi plus important pour les grandes entreprises (plus dépendantes en matières premières), et les secteurs très consommateurs d’énergie. |
| Date: | 2025–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:econot:414 |
| By: | Kumar, Anil; Birthal, Pratap S. |
| Abstract: | In developing countries, rural communities have long recognized the importance of dung as a source of renewable energy for domestic purposes and organic fertilizers for crop production. However, the utility of dung, both as a source of energy and fertilizers, has diminished owing to the increasing use of chemical fertilizers and fossil fuels, rendering it a less essential resource and a potential environmental contaminant. Nevertheless, owing to their increasingly negative externalities on natural resources and the environment, a new perspective has emerged on the utility of dung as biogas and bio-compressed natural gas (CNG), while maintaining its traditional use as an organic fertiilizer. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries, Supply Chain |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpb:358873 |
| By: | Jan Frankowski; Joanna Mazurkiewicz; Aleksandra Prusak; Jakub Soko³owski; Sona Stara; Wojciech Be³ch; Michal Nesládek; Tomáš Vácha |
| Abstract: | The report provides an overview of the housing stock and residents’ opinions on energy issues in Polish and Czech housing cooperatives and homeowners’ associations. The findings are based on a survey conducted among residents of these types of housing organizations in both countries. The report indicates that although the overall technical condition of buildings is good and some modernization projects have already been implemented, the pace of the energy transition is limited by financial, social, and organizational factors. |
| Keywords: | housing cooperatives, energy transition, Poland, Czechia |
| JEL: | J21 L71 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:report:rr022025 |
| By: | Amir Ashour Novirdoust (EWI); Pia Hoffmann-Willers (EWI); Julian Keutz (EWI) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops an analytical model of sequential electricity markets in which renewable and conventional producers compete in two stages. Building on previous work, we introduce risk-averse renewable producers and distinguish between competitive and oligopolistic renewable producers. The model captures strategic bidding behavior under uncertainty in renewable production and limited flexibility of conventional producers in the second stage. Our results show that risk aversion amplifies strategic withholding in oligopolistic settings, thereby increasing the forward premium. This effect intensifies when conventional producers are less flexible. While risk aversion has no impact on welfare under perfect competition or when conventional producers are fully flexible, its interaction with market power and supply-side inflexibility generates welfare losses. In a heterogeneous market structure of renewable producers, competitive producers benefit from higher prices caused by the withholding of oligopolistic producers, particularly when those producers are risk-averse. |
| Keywords: | Sequential Markets; Strategic Bidding; Risk Aversion; Market Power; Renewable Energy |
| JEL: | D43 D81 L13 L94 Q21 |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:021748 |
| By: | Gunther Capelle-Blancard (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Centre d'Econonomie de la Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this note is to assess whether and how the Financial Transaction Tax (FTT) could be "greened"that is, adapted or utilized to support environmental objectives and the financing of the transition to a more sustainable economy. While traditionally conceived as a regulatory tool, the FTT also holds unexploited potential as an instrument for climate finance and broader environmental alignment. This paper outlines five complementary arguments in favor of a green FTT: (1) its capacity to mobilize stable, international funding for global public goods; (2) its symbolic relevance in light of the financial sector's contribution to social and environmental disruption; (3) its ability to modestly lengthen investment horizons and counteract excessive short-termism; (4) its potential to enhance public trust in finance by matching rhetoric about sustainable finance with contributions; and (5) its prospective use as a differentiated tool to reward environmentally responsible issuers. The paper also includes a first quantitative assessment of potential revenues from a tiered green FTT, illustrating how such a mechanism could operationalize the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities in climate finance. While recognizing practical limitations (in terms of governance, data reliability, and risk of complexity) the paper concludes that a well-calibrated green FTT could be a simple yet effective lever in aligning financial markets with the ecological transition |
| Keywords: | Financial transaction tax; Securities Transaction Tax; Tobin tax; Innovative Financing; Climate Finance |
| JEL: | G1 H2 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:25012r |
| By: | Zehao Lin |
| Abstract: | Global climate warming and air pollution pose severe threats to economic development and public safety, presenting significant challenges to sustainable development worldwide. Corporations, as key players in resource utilization and emissions, have drawn increasing attention from policymakers, researchers, and the public regarding their environmental strategies and practices. This study employs a two-way fixed effects panel model to examine the impact of environmental information disclosure on corporate environmental performance, its regional heterogeneity, and the underlying mechanisms. The results demonstrate that environmental information disclosure significantly improves corporate environmental performance, with the effect being more pronounced in areas of high population density and limited green space. These findings provide empirical evidence supporting the role of environmental information disclosure as a critical tool for improving corporate environmental practices. The study highlights the importance of targeted, region-specific policies to maximize the effectiveness of disclosure, offering valuable insights for promoting sustainable development through enhanced corporate transparency. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.24002 |
| By: | Elkerbout, Milan (Resources for the Future); Nehrkorn, Katarina (Resources for the Future); Holmes, Brandon (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | This is the second Resources for the Future (RFF) working paper on interoperability of carbon intensity quantification methods. To read our first RFF paper on interoperability, see https://www.rff.org/publications/working-papers/trade-friendly-climate-policies-the-promise-of-interoperability/. This paper connects the ongoing debate on carbon accounting methods with existing practices in lifecycle accounting and environmental product declarations. A case study compares carbon intensity quantification methods across the EU carbon border adjustment mechanisms, the US Environmental Protection Agency’s labeling program, and an International Trade Commission study on steel and aluminum carbon intensities. This paper finds that there may be legitimate areas where product-level carbon intensity accounting choices may differ. Nevertheless, improved interoperability could still be possible by discussing and recognizing trade-offs between physical properties and policy incentives. |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-25-27 |
| By: | Fichter, Klaus; Neumann, Thomas; Olteanu, Yasmin; Grothey, Tim |
| Abstract: | A central element of this research by the Borderstep Institute is the systematic long-term measurement of the green start-up ecosystem in Germany. This year, the findings will be published as the "Green Startup Report 2025". The study marks a milestone: for the first time, a new, scientifically validated methodology is being used that enables a much more precise analysis of the dynamics of green start-ups. It is based on data on more than 12, 000 young companies and over 50, 000 commercial register entries on investments in start-ups. The Green Startup Report 2025 thus offers a previously unrivalled level of empirical depth and enables more well-founded statements to be made about the development of sustainable business models, their market opportunities and their actual contribution to climate protection. The analysis makes it clear that green start-ups are relevant players in the sustainable transformation. They develop market-based solutions for environmental and climate protection. Through their entrepreneurial activities, they make a measurable contribution to achieving national and European climate targets. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, Green Startup, Interpreneurship, Sustainable Entrepreneurship, Green Economy, Green Startup Report, Start-up Ecosystem, Impact, Impact Assessment, Impact Forecasting, Climate Protection Potential, Start-up funding and financing |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:330411 |
| By: | Eskander, Shaikh; Higham, Catherine; Hamley, Maggie; Setzer, Joana; Fankhauser, Samuel |
| Abstract: | One theory about company- and country-level climate actions is that they interact with one another through a mutually reinforcing “ambition loop”. Using publicly available data on country- and company-level net-zero targets, our econometric analysis reveals a positive relationship between state and company: a country introducing a domestic net-zero target in law increases the likelihood of companies introducing their own voluntary targets and vice-versa. Our findings offer important insights into the mechanisms of climate governance – knowledge that will be critical if we are to meet global net-zero targets by 2050. |
| Keywords: | ambition loop; climate targets; climate law; global comparison; net-zero targets; Ambition loop; Strategic Research Fund through Oxford Net Zero. |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 P00 K32 H32 |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122252 |
| By: | Fekria Belhouichet; Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana |
| Abstract: | This paper applies the R² connectedness method proposed by Balli et al. (2023) to analyse contemporaneous and lagged connectedness between returns on several asset classes (sector ETFs, Bitcoin, stock market indices, Brent crude oil) over the period 1 January 2023 – 22 September 2025, in the presence of heightened geopolitical risk. The results indicate that contemporaneous effects dominate over lagged ones. Specifically, the Nikkei 225, the STOXX 600, and Brent oil act as net risk receivers, while Bitcoin plays a limited role as a safe haven. Conversely, the S&P 500 index appears to be the main shock emitter, followed by the Defence (ITA) and Technology (XLK) ETFs, while the Energy (XLE) ETF seems to be particularly exposed to risk. These findings provide valuable information to policymakers responsible for financial stability and to investors seeking effective portfolio diversification and hedging strategies, especially during periods of market turbulence. |
| Keywords: | contemporaneous and lagged R2 connectedness, Thematic ETFs, Brent oil, S&P 500, STOXX 600, Nikkei 225, geopolitical risk |
| JEL: | C32 G11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12225 |
| By: | Romain Capliez-Wahart |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the dynamics of information transmission between spot and futures copper markets by extending the Garbade and Silber (1983) model and estimating it within a Vector Logistic Smooth Transition AutoRegressive (VLSTAR) framework. Using copper data—including cyclical prices, returns, conditional volatility, and Value at Risk---we show that the futures market consistently leads information flows, with its dominance intensifying during crisis periods. Financial information is more extensively transmitted across markets than non-financial information, although only the latter exhibits regime-dependent behavior. During crises, market risk tends to remain localized, whereas return uncertainty diffuses more broadly across markets. These findings support the policy recommendation of allowing a moderate and controlled increase in spot prices to stimulate investment and prevent abrupt spikes in futures prices, which could destabilize the real economy and hinder progress in the energy transition. |
| Keywords: | Copper prices; Spot and futures markets; Price discovery function; Information spillovers; Non-linear modelling |
| JEL: | C32 G13 Q31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-40 |
| By: | Yun-Shi Dai; Peng-Fei Dai; St\'ephane Goutte; Duc Khuong Nguyen; Wei-Xing Zhou |
| Abstract: | With escalating macroeconomic uncertainty, the risk interlinkages between energy and food markets have become increasingly complex, posing serious challenges to global energy and food security. This paper proposes an integrated framework combining the GJRSK model, the time-frequency connectedness analysis, and the random forest method to systematically investigate the moment connectedness within the energy-food nexus and explore the key drivers of various spillover effects. The results reveal significant multidimensional risk spillovers with pronounced time variation, heterogeneity, and crisis sensitivity. Return and skewness connectedness are primarily driven by short-term spillovers, kurtosis connectedness is more prominent over the medium term, while volatility connectedness is dominated by long-term dynamics. Notably, crude oil consistently serves as a central transmitter in diverse connectedness networks. Furthermore, the spillover effects are influenced by multiple factors, including macro-financial conditions, oil supply-demand fundamentals, policy uncertainties, and climate-related shocks, with the core drivers of connectedness varying considerably across different moments and timescales. These findings provide valuable insights for the coordinated governance of energy and food markets, the improvement of multilayered risk early-warning systems, and the optimization of investment strategies. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.24174 |
| By: | Johanna Arlinghaus; Théo Konc; Linus Mattauch; Stephan Sommer |
| Abstract: | Do citizens support policy instruments because they appreciate their effects or because they are convinced by their objectives? We administered a large-scale representative survey with randomised video treatments to test how different policy frames - time savings, health and environment - affect citizens' attitudes towards urban tolls in two large European metropolitan areas, Berlin-Brandenburg and Paris-Ile de France. Presenting urban tolls as a solution to air pollution increases support by up to 11.4 percentage points, presenting them as a climate change or congestion relief measure increases support by 7.1 and 6.5 percentage points, respectively. We demonstrate via a causal mediation analysis that the observed changes in policy support are mainly framing effects; changes in beliefs about policy effects play a secondary role. Thus, we uncover a new mechanism shaping public opinion on economic policies: the stated objectives of an identical policy design can shape citizens' views in distinct ways. |
| Keywords: | political |
| Date: | 2025–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0077 |
| By: | Artikova, Aziza; Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Khamidov, Imomjon; Primov, Abdulla |
| Abstract: | The development of appropriate climate change makes people perceive it in a certain way, and is critical to formulating appropriate environmental policies and environmental education campaigns. In this article, the authors discuss the perception of climate change in four Central Asian countries — namely, the Kyrgyz Republic, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan —as well as the Caucasus region and Eastern Europe. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Perception, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and Caucasus |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 P48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:330338 |
| By: | Tanguy Bonnet |
| Abstract: | Low-carbon technologies are highly intensive in critical minerals for which extraction and transformation generate heavy socio-environmental negative externalities. Global trade flows of such materials and technologies are part of a singular macroeconomy, filled with geopolitical issues and national strategies.This paper aims to draw on environmental justice and ecological macroeconomics theoretical frameworks in order to assess the global material allocation of critical minerals and low-carbon technologies, and question its equity and efficiency, in the lens of the ecologically unequal exchange theory.Peripheral mining countries assume the heavy socio-environmental costs related to the extractive activities, while global trade flows enable an asymmetrical material allocation toward richer core countries. Two countries stand out : China, as the semi-periphery, and the US, as the challenged core.The paper also discusses how shifting geopolitics, geo-economic fragmentation and national strategies could modify such patterns of ecologically unequal exchange. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals ; global trade flows ; ecologically unequal exchange ; environmental justice ; geo-economic fragmentation |
| JEL: | Q42 L72 F18 Q37 Q56 Q57 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-39 |
| By: | Michel Alexandre; Angela Modica Scala; Alessandro Caiani; Gilberto Tadeu Lima |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we propose a methodology for computing the impact of climate transition risks on the financial system. The novelty of our analytical approach is that it accounts for indirect impacts stemming from inter-sectoral linkages (on the real sector side) and interbank loans (on the financial sector side). Our proposed methodology is carried out in three sequential steps: physical capital stranding due to a shock on a carbon-intensive economic sector (the mining fossil sector), potential direct losses experienced by the financial sector caused by its loan exposures to the real sector, and indirect potential losses due to interbank exposures. Applying this methodology to a rich Brazilian financial dataset alongside with reputable international input-output databases, we show that (i) the sectors with the highest rates of stranding physical capital vary with the model used to compute such stranding, (ii) the distribution of the individual direct and indirect losses are well-fitted by a power law, and (iii) the aggregate potential loss, both direct and indirect, declined during the period assessed in this study (2015-2022). |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:633 |
| By: | Srivastava, S.K.; Kishore, P.; Birthal, P. S.; Singh, J.; Sethi, R. R. |
| Abstract: | Irrigation, in conjunction with high-yielding seeds and agro-chemicals, has been a crucial factor in the intensification of Indian agriculture, contributing to improvements in productivity, farmers’ incomes, and food security. The net irrigated area increased from 25 million hectares in 1960-61 to 79 million hectares in 2023-24, representing an increase from 19% to 56% of the net sown area. However, over three-fourths of the increase in irrigated area occurred due to groundwater extraction, the share of which in net irrigated area doubled from 30% to 60%. Concurrently, a transition occurred in energy sources for groundwater extraction devices (GEDs), from diesel to electricity. The number of electric-operated GEDs increased almost four-fold from 4.7 million in 1986-87 to 16.5 million in 2017-19. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Productivity Analysis, Sustainability |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpb:358874 |
| By: | Kopp, Thomas; Finger, Robert; Huber, Robert; Nabernegg, Markus; Sexton, Richard J. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi24:364720 |
| By: | Rowden, Rick |
| Abstract: | There has been a debate underway in international affairs about the term “Global South” and what it is, who it is, and what it wants, and if the term is even useful or not. This paper explores this debate, examines the history and meaning of the term “Global South, ” and lists many of the things that the Global South wants from the rich countries in terms of reforms to the international financial and trade architecture, including: enabling developing countries to pay for imports with their domestic currencies; establishing a more balanced global trading system; enabling developing countries to borrow in their own domestic currencies; establishing to get an immediate international resolution to the worsening sovereign debt crisis an international sovereign debt restructuring mechanism for heavily-indebted countries; IMF and World Bank policy and governance reforms; WTO policy and governance reforms; greater access to international financing during financial crises and for tackling climate change; improved technology transfer; reforms to bilateral trade and investment agreements and international investment arbitration procedures; subsidies to support green energy transitions; taxation of cross-border e-commerce; reforms of the major credit rating agencies; reducing tax evasion and other illicit financial flows; and easing restrictions on the use of capital controls. |
| Keywords: | international financial architecture (IFA) reform; Global South; non-aligned movementn (NAM); new international economic order (NIEO); Bridgetown initiative |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129964 |
| By: | Filkoski, Vasil; Tevdovski, Dragan |
| Abstract: | We develop a methodology that leverages open-source geospatial data on fuel station infrastructure and related services to construct the Gas Station Index (GSI), a novel indicator that augments official and alternative measures of regional economic development. Gas stations serve as consumer-facing infrastructure nodes, and their density and quality reflect local demand, purchasing power, and mobility. Using data on 19, 033 stations across 62 regions in nine European countries, the GSI explains 64% of the cross-regional variation in GDP per capita - a notable result for a single-variable indicator. Beyond its statistical fit, the GSI uncovers meaningful economic patterns. It reflects diminishing returns to infrastructure, consistent with core economic theory; it maps spatial inequality both visually and statistically, highlighting clusters of prosperity in capitals, port cities, transit corridors, and tourist destinations; and it classifies regional development typologies through bivariate LISA analysis. The unexplained variation underscores the structural differences between infrastructure-based indicator and GDP per capita, driven by sectoral specialization, mobility patterns, and informal economic activity. The GSI should therefore be viewed not as a substitute for national accounts, but as a complementary indicator particularly relevant at the subnational level. Compared to existing indicators, it offers distinct advantages: GDP per capita is delayed and masks heterogeneity, while night-time lights suffer from saturation and rural undercoverage. By contrast, the GSI provides a ground-level, behaviorally grounded, and real-time measure of economic development. By capturing both infrastructure and consumption dynamics, it complements—and in certain respects surpasses—conventional indicators in tracing regional growth trajectories and spatial inequality. |
| Keywords: | regional income, regional inequality, economic development measurement, infrastructure, geospatial data, nowcasting. |
| JEL: | C43 C55 E01 O18 O47 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126108 |
| By: | Segoin, Daniel; Menegat, Martina; O'Connell, Marguerite |
| Abstract: | On 9 April 2024, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) delivered a landmark ruling in Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland. The ruling was handed down together with two further rulings in Duarte Agostinho and others v. Portugal and others, and in Carême v. France. The ruling marked the first time the ECtHR held that insufficient climate action by a state constitutes a violation of human rights under the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR). While primarily having an impact on Switzerland as a defending State, the ruling is expected to indirectly affect the legal order of the European Union and its institutions. Moreover, the findings of the ECtHR have been reinforced by recent advisory opinions of other international courts and tribunals, in particular the opinion of the International Court of Justice, handed down on 23 July 2025. This paper first recalls the key facts and outcomes from each of the three ECtHR climate rulings and explores the key findings in greater detail. Second, the paper outlines the climate rulings of other international courts and tribunals. Thereafter, the paper explains the relevance of the KlimaSeniorinnen ruling for the Union and its institutions. First, as a matter of substance, the paper explains how the ruling carries lessons for the ambition and implementation of the climate policies of the Union and its Member States. Second, the paper goes on to explore the procedural avenues for litigants to bring an action before the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU), to challenge Union policies on the basis of the ECtHR’s ruling. The paper then outlines how the ruling may be relevant to the ECB, and for the national central banks (NCBs) and national competent authorities (NCAs) within the Eurosystem and Single Supervisory Mechanism. Finally, the paper explores how the ruling may be relevant to the financial sector, insofar as it increases the risk of litigation, and risks related to the process of adjustment towards a low-carbon economy (transition risk). |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecblwp:202523 |
| By: | Clausen, Jens; Schmitz, Luki |
| Abstract: | Die Studie Szenarien der Entwicklung des Klimawandels und der Energieversorgung von Borderstep Institut und Goethe-Universität Frankfurt (2024) liefert einen breit angelegten Überblick über verschiedene Szenarien der zukünftigen Entwicklung der Energiewende und ihrer Folgen – sowohl auf nationaler als auch auf regionaler Ebene. Im Mittelpunkt stehen dabei vier zentrale Szenarienfelder: Szenarien der zukünftigen Entwicklung der Energieversorgung, Szenarien der zukünftigen Entwicklung in den Märkten bestimmter energierelevanter Produkte, Szenarien der zu erwartenden Folgen des Klimawandels sowie sozioökonomische Szenarien. Ausgangspunkt sind dabei global verfügbare Studien, nationale Energieszenarien (z. B. Dekarbonisierung bis 2045) und Modellregionen wie Berlin und der Hunsrück. Die Analyse zeigt: Für Haushalte bedeuten die Szenarien u. a. einen Rückgang fossiler Brennstoffe (Heizöl, Erdgas), eine steigende Bedeutung von Strom, Fernwärme und Umweltwärme sowie eine Ausweitung von Photovoltaik und Wärmepumpen. Welche zentralen Transformationspfade ergeben sich – und worauf liegt der Fokus? Der Gebäudesektor: Endenergiebedarf soll bis 2045 um rund ein Drittel sinken. Die Verkehrswende: Der Pkw‐Bestand könnte je nach Szenario deutlich schrumpfen; batterieelektrische Fahrzeuge dominieren mit Anteilen zwischen 75 % und 99 %. Die Stromerzeugung: Erforderlich ist eine Vervielfachung der erneuerbaren Stromproduktion – Solar, On‐ und Offshore‐Wind werden jeweils rund ein Drittel des Strommixes übernehmen. Klimawirkungen: Je nach Emissionspfad sind bei einer globalen Erwärmung von 2 °C oder mehr erhebliche Risiken für Natur, Gesellschaft und Wirtschaft absehbar. Die Studie dient insbesondere der Vorbereitung des Projekts EnerVi, das mithilfe eines Visualisierungstools individuelle Folgen der Energiewende und des Klimawandels für Endverbraucher aufzeigt – und so nachhaltiges Verhalten fördern soll. |
| Keywords: | Transformation des Energiesystems, Erneuerbare Energien, Energieeffizienz, Wärmewende, Wärmepumpen, Sektorkopplung |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:330412 |
| By: | Tiziano Balaconi; Aldo Glielmo; Marco Taboga |
| Abstract: | We introduce GasRL, a simulator that couples a calibrated representation of the natural gas market with a model of storage-operator policies trained with deep reinforcement learning (RL). We use it to analyse how optimal stockpile management affects equilibrium prices and the dynamics of demand and supply. We test various RL algorithms and find that Soft Actor Critic (SAC) exhibits superior performance in the GasRL environment: multiple objectives of storage operators - including profitability, robust market clearing and price stabilisation - are successfully achieved. Moreover, the equilibrium price dynamics induced by SAC-derived optimal policies have characteristics, such as volatility and seasonality, that closely match those of real-world prices. Remarkably, this adherence to the historical distribution of prices is obtained without explicitly calibrating the model to price data. We show how the simulator can be used to assess the effects of EU-mandated minimum storage thresholds. We find that such thresholds have a positive effect on market resilience against unanticipated shifts in the distribution of supply shocks. For example, with unusually large shocks, market disruptions are averted more often if a threshold is in place. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.02646 |
| By: | DeAngeli, Emma (Resources for the Future); Livermore, Michael A. |
| Abstract: | In principle, there is a long-standing and broad bipartisan consensus in favor of robust ex-post evaluation of federal environmental policy. Proponents of ex-post evaluation note its many possible benefits—these include identifying (and eliminating) ineffective programs; improving the quality of ex-ante analysis; and facilitating regulatory experimentation. In reality, a number of political, institutional, and cultural barriers have blocked the emergence of any consistent practice of ex-post review. These barriers have persisted for decades, through administrations of both political parties and during periods of both united and divided government. They arise from consistent features of the administrative state, rather than the temporary politics of any particular moment. Overcoming them will likely require sustained reforms efforts.Based in part on a series of interviews with senior government officials with decades of experience in environmental policymaking, this report identifies a set of ten interrelated barriers that have inhibited the development of a robust practice of environmental policy evaluation at federal agencies. These barriers are partially the result of political dynamics, but they also arise from agency institutional constraints, incentives, and cultures. Our research identifies the following leading barriers to ex-post evaluation:Many agencies lack dedicated funding to carry out ex-post evaluation.Agencies have highly constrained agenda space, making it difficult to prioritize ex-post evaluation.Agencies face adverse political incentives to engage in self-scrutiny that may open them to political attacks.Although agency personnel often have essential domain knowledge, they may lack the expertise to carry out rigorous ex-post analyses.Agencies may lack (or believe they lack) legislative authority to carry out certain types of ex-post review.It is often not clear how agencies should integrate the results of ex-post evaluation into decisionmaking, given that major regulatory decisions are rare.The self-evaluations of agencies, even if carried out in good faith, may not be perceived as trustworthy by relevant stakeholders.Ex-post evaluation often raises difficult questions of causal inference that agencies may be ill-positioned to address.It is often difficult for agencies to collect the data needed to engage in ex-post evaluation.Many agencies have not developed a culture of evaluation.Given the identified barriers, we propose a suite of potential reforms for Congress to consider. These proposals are based on prior experience with ex-post review, analogous efforts within and outside the government, or suggestions that interviewees raised. We offer options at different levels of ambition, recognizing that enthusiasm to dedicate substantial congressional effort to the project of improving ex-post evaluation may vary. These levels of ambition can also be understood as scaling with time, so that more ambitious proposals, while perhaps unrealistic in the short term, may be more plausible over longer time horizons.At the lowest level of ambition, Congress could use the appropriations process to direct funds to environmental policy evaluation. So as not to interfere with agency operations, and to avoid the impression that policy evaluation necessarily comes at the expense of programmatic goals, such funds should be made as additions to agency budgets, rather than as reallocations of existing resources. Appropriations directed to ex-post review would, most obviously, address the barrier of a lack of dedicated funds. Such appropriations would also require agencies to prioritize, to at least some degree, ex-post evaluation, regardless of their limited agenda space. Additional funding would also facilitate the acquisition of expertise as needed.At a similar level of ambition, Congress could contemplate small-bore reforms that could ease the process of ex-post evaluation. For example, the Paperwork Reduction Act places procedural and substantive limits on agencies’ ability to collect data—a core prerequisite of ex-post evaluation. Given limited agency resources and competing priorities, these burdens act as additional roadblocks that can sap momentum from evaluation efforts. Targeted reforms to the Paperwork Reduction Act could reduce these burdens while still ensuring that the core purposes of the Act are protected. Efforts to identify other similar facilitating reforms may be warranted.At a higher level of ambition, Congress could create legal requirements for agencies to engage in policy evaluation, either of specific programs or more broadly. The most extensive ex-post analysis of environmental policy making that has been carried out to date was prompted by section 812 of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. In response to this congressional directive, the Environmental Protection Agency developed considerable expertise and dedicated significant resources to estimating the costs and benefits of air quality policies. Similar mandates could be effective, especially if coupled with additional funding and facilitating reforms. Legislative mandates would require agencies to devote at least some of their finite agenda space to ex-post evaluation, and, based on prior experience, would likely result in agencies accessing the expertise needed to carry out these evaluations in a rigorous fashion. Mandates would also clarify that agencies have authority to carry out ex-post evaluations.A further measure at a similar level of ambition would be the creation of a specialized group of policy evaluation experts, within the Executive Office of the President, tasked with coordinating and facilitating ex-post evaluation efforts. Ideally, such a Policy Evaluation Group (PEG) would operate across a wide range of agencies (not only those with environmental portfolios), would be structured to be as politically neutral as possible, and would serve a supporting, rather than overseeing, role. The primary function of the PEG would be to provide human resources and expertise for agencies that are interested in engaging in policy evaluations. In this way, it would address issues of funding and expertise. A reform along these lines could also help increase the perceived trustworthiness of ex-post evaluations, given that outside experts would be part of the team that designed and implemented the analyses.A more ambitious step that Congress could take would be the creation of a National Institute for Policy Evaluation and Review (NIPER), modeled on other scientific funding institutes. This new agency would fund collaborations between academic institutions and government agencies to engage in large-scale policy evaluations designed to identify and address key areas of uncertainty across a range of policymaking domains. Environmental policies would be one of several portfolios that could be overseen by a funding agency of this kind, which could also support research in areas such as education and criminal justice. A NIPER-like entity would have considerable potential to address most of the barriers to ex-post evaluation.Finally, Congress could contemplate deeper statutory reforms designed to encourage agencies to integrate the results from ex-post evaluations into regulatory decisionmaking. Ex-post evaluations are only useful if they provide information that serves as an input into agency decisionmaking. However, the laborious rulemaking process, which includes litigation and the attendant risk of judicial invalidation of agency decisions, means that agencies are not well-poised to update rules based on new information. Recent moves by the US Supreme Court to reduce agency discretion has further constrained the ability of agencies to act on the information from ex-post evaluations. Congress may wish to contemplate legislation to ensure that the process of judicial review does not interfere unduly with flexible and responsive agency decisionmaking.Reforms of some significant ambition are likely needed to address barriers that, for decades, have inhibited ex-post evaluation. But such reforms require considerable study and coalition building before they would become politically feasible. For this reason, we recommend that Congress begin by creating a Commission on Policy Evaluation, modeled on the successful Commission on Evidence-Based Policy Making. This new Commission would be charged with studying policy evaluation across the federal government, examining state and comparative analogies, and consulting with experts to generate a set of concrete recommendations for additional congressional action. The Commission would help generate the knowledge base necessary to support well-informed congressional action and could also act as a forum for bipartisan coalition building. |
| Date: | 2025–11–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-25-25 |