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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Dudek, Matthew |
| Abstract: | California’s renewable portfolio standard requires a rapid de-carbonization of the state’s electricity supply by 2045. Despite renewables’ falling fixed costs, increased reliance on intermittent, primarily solar, generation creates two challenges for California’s grid operator. First, maximum solar generation does not coincide with peak demand during the day. Second, locations with the greatest generation potential are distant from the state’s demand centers. The spatial and temporal mismatch between renewable supply and demand increases the frequency of line congestion, causing localized curtailment despite the willingness to pay elsewhere. Utility-scale storage promises to mitigate the inefficiencies of intermittent generation by allowing owners to arbitrage electricity across time and space. My research investigates whether batteries operating in California’s wholesale electricity market have increased the productivity of renewables, indicated by reductions in curtailment, and whether these impacts varied with batteries’ location. I find that the marginal MWh of electricity used to charge batteries at noon in California resulted in a 0.5 MWh reduction in solar curtailment, which was largely driven by storage capacity additions near solar generators. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404734 |
| By: | Brazzola, Nicoletta |
| Abstract: | The war in Iran has led to kerosene prices roughly doubling and forced airlines to cancel thousands of flights. Some voices from the industry have used the crisis to call for climate policies to be relaxed. However, this misreads what the crisis actually demonstrates: Costs are being driven not by too much climate policy, but by dependence on fossil energy itself. In 2026/27 the European Union (EU) will decide whether to end the "stop the clock" exemption that has shielded international flights from the Emissions Trading System (ETS) since 2013 and extend the ETS to all departures from the European Economic Area, or whether such flights will continue to be covered by international offsetting mechanisms. The decision will have implications well beyond aviation: for the EU's 2040 climate target, the demand for durable CO2 removal, and the credibility of European climate policy more broadly. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Off-setting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), EU aviation, Iran war, Climate Policy, Sustainable Aviation Fuels, SAF, EU Emis-sions Trading System, ETS, Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for Interna-tional Aviation, CORSIA, Article 6.4 credits, ReFuelEU, International Civil Aviati-on Organization, ICAO, carbon dioxide removal, CDR, direct air capture with carbon storage, DACCS |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:342580 |
| By: | Mathias Dolls; Sebastian Link; Matti Liski; Gerome Wolf |
| Abstract: | Europe's green transition requires an unprecedented volume of private investment. Despite rising carbon prices in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) – captured by the ETS Emission Allowances – corporate investments in climate-related initiatives remain insufficient to align with the goals set forth in the Paris Agreement. This shortfall raises critical questions: At what carbon price levels will firms invest in green projects? Additionally, how does uncertainty about future prices affect their decisions?To address these issues, the authors of this report conducted a conjoint survey experiment involving 830 German manufacturing firms. The results reveal that price levels and price stability are both crucial for decarbonization. While higher expected carbon prices strongly incentivize corporate action, with firms favoring green projects as prices cross the EUR 90–100 threshold, volatility severely deters it. High uncertainty about future prices creates a "wait-and-see" effect that completely offsets the positive impact of a massive carbon price increase. Furthermore, institutional trust acts as a powerful multiplier; firms that perceive climate policies as credible are substantially more willing to commit capital.Therefore, unlocking private green investment requires policymakers to do more than sustain ambitious carbon prices. They must actively reduce downside risks by implementing robust price stabilization mechanisms, such as price floors or corridors, and ensure long-term institutional commitment. These elements need to be incorporated into the future reform of the EU ETS framework, especially ETS-2, which is now expected to become fully operational in 2028. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpr:_58 |
| By: | Khan, Sarah; Das Banerjee, Anannya; Ramji, Aditya |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8535561d |
| By: | Lukas Franken; Iegor Riepin; Tom Brown |
| Abstract: | Recent price shocks have prompted calls to curb Europe's dependence on fossil gas imports, but the cost of this goal, and the consumer protection it affords, remain uncertain. Here we address this gap by imposing constraints on fossil gas supply in a European energy system model that co-optimises abatement across all gas uses at high spatio-temporal resolution. Cutting import reliance proves economically compelling: through savings in power generation and low-temperature heat in industry and buildings, Europe can halve its natural gas consumption for 16bnEUR/a, aligning demand with the continent's production capacity of 200 bcm. This extra system cost is comparable to what consumers spend today on a 2 EUR/MWh rise in gas import prices. However, this sovereignty alone does not shield consumers from global gas price volatility: we find that, even at a small share of the mix, gas remains dominant in shaping the marginal electricity price, leaving consumers exposed without additional policy measures. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.21048 |
| By: | Yun-Long Zhang; Jia-Ning Kang; Xiaoming Kan; Lan-Cui Liu; Zhimin Huang; Song Peng; Biying Yu; Yi-Ming Wei |
| Abstract: | Decarbonizing existing coal-fired power plants can contribute to near-term climate mitigation, but identifying cost-effective retrofit strategies is complicated by interactions among mitigation technologies. Here we develop an interaction-aware optimization framework that jointly evaluates energy conservation, biomass co-firing, and carbon capture across 1, 885 coal-fired power plants in China while accounting for plant heterogeneity and shared biomass and CO2 storage resources. We find that technology interactions alter both mitigation costs and the emission reductions attributable to individual measures, thereby changing cost-optimal technology portfolios and marginal abatement cost curve at the fleet level. Approximately 1.2 Gt CO2 yr-1 can be mitigated at negative marginal cost, while reaching carbon neutrality requires a marginal abatement cost of US$56 t CO2-1. Progressively deeper mitigation shifts the cost-optimal portfolio from energy conservation toward biomass co-firing and ultimately carbon capture, with biomass combined with carbon capture enabling net-negative emissions. Explicitly accounting for interactions among mitigation technologies therefore provides a more consistent basis for evaluating coal-power decarbonization and coordinating retrofit investment, infrastructure development, and climate policy. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.11404 |
| By: | Dongwei Zhao; Stefanos Delikaraogloub; Vladimir Dvorkin Alberto J. Lamadrid L.; Audun Botterud |
| Abstract: | Coordination of day-ahead and real-time electricity markets is imperative for cost-effective electricity supply and also to provide efficient incentives for the energy transition. Although stochastic market designs feature the least-cost coordination, they are incompatible with current deterministic markets. This paper proposes a new approach for compatible coordination in two-settlement markets based on benchmark bidding curves for variable renewable energy. These curves are optimized based on a bilevel optimization problem, anticipating per-scenario responses of deterministic market-clearing problems and ultimately minimizing the expected cost across day-ahead and real-time markets. Although the general bilevel model is challenging to solve, we theoretically prove that a single-segment bidding curve with a zero bidding price is sufficient to achieve system optimality if the marginal cost of variable renewable energy is zero, thus addressing the computational challenge. In practice, variable renewable energy producers can be allowed to bid multi-segment curves with non-zero prices. We test the bilevel framework for both single- and multiple-segment bidding curves under the assumption of fixed bidding prices. We leverage duality theory and McCormick envelopes to derive the linear programming approximation of the bilevel problem, which scales to practical systems such as a 1576-bus NYISO system. We benchmark the proposed coordination and find absolute dominance over the baseline solution, which assumes that renewables agnostically bid their expected forecasts. We also demonstrate that our proposed scheme provides a good approximation of the least-cost, yet unattainable in practice, stochastic market outcome. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.18732 |
| By: | Konrad Adler (University of St.Gallen & SFI); Oliver Rehbein (WU Vienna & VGSF); Matthias Reiner (WU Vienna & VGSF); Jing Zeng (University of Bonn & CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We propose measuring firms’ exposure to climate risk via the market. We build a theoretical foundation and construct empirical market-based greenness measures based on abnormal stock returns around UN climate conferences. Our measures cover around 36, 000 international firms, tenfold the existing measures. Market-based greenness is associated with lower present and future carbon emissions, and provides explanatory power distinct from existing climate risk measures. Market-based green firms are more likely to file green patents, have lower stock price volatility, and are financially more robust. At the country level, market-based greenness correlates with lower emission intensity and larger shares of renewable energy. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, greenness, green firms, climate risk |
| JEL: | G14 G32 G38 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:421 |
| By: | Bems, Rudolfs; Juvenal, Luciana; Liu, Weifeng Larry; Mckibbin, Warwick |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the economic effects of climate policies on different regions and countries with a focus on external adjustment. The paper finds that various climate policies could have substantially different impacts on external balances over the next decade. A credible and globally coordinated carbon tax would decrease current account balances in greener advanced economies and increase current accounts in more fossil-fuel-dependent regions, reflecting a disproportionate decline in investment for the latter group. Green supply-side policies—green subsidy and infrastructure investment—would increase investment and saving but would have a more muted external sector impact because of the constrained pace of expansion for renewables or the symmetry of the infrastructure boost. Country characteristics, such as initial carbon intensity and net fossil fuel exports, ultimately determine the current account responses. For the global economy, a coordinated climate change mitigation policy package would shift capital towards advanced economies. Following an initial rise, the global interest rates would fall over time with increases in the carbon tax. These external sector effects, however, depend crucially on the degree of international policy coordination and credibility. |
| Keywords: | Climate policies; Carbon taxes; Net-zero emissions; Current account; Capital flows; Dynamic general equilibrium model; G-cubed |
| JEL: | F41 F42 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19350 |
| By: | Haibo Wang; Lutfu Sua; Jaime Ortiz; Jun Huang; Bahram Alidaee |
| Abstract: | Design/methodology/approach A time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model is employed to quantify dynamic connectedness and directional volatility spillovers using daily data from May 1, 2013, to May 2, 2023. The study isolates the impact of extreme events by splitting the data into pre- and post-COVID-19 samples based on the February 2020 stock market crash. Purpose This paper examines the daily financial risk spillovers associated with investing in critical minerals. It examines the dynamic interconnectedness between seven critical mineral Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) portfolios and key economic-wide variables, including the energy market, carbon emissions, market sentiment, and global infrastructure. Findings Portfolios with high Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) scores significantly contribute to shock spillovers. Net directional connectedness analysis reveals that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and carbon emission futures consistently act as "net receivers, " absorbing volatility from the system. Conversely, Cobalt and Aluminum ETFs primarily act as "net givers, " transmitting volatility. The pandemic caused significant structural shifts in these transmission roles. Practical implications The identification of specific net givers and receivers provides actionable insights for investors, facilitating better hedging strategies against time-varying structural breaks and broader economic shocks. Originality This study uniquely utilizes financial ETF data rather than physical mineral prices to capture accessible investment risks. It is among the first to link ESG scores to the directional role (giver vs. receiver) of critical mineral assets within a broader macro-financial network. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.27485 |
| By: | Ramji, Aditya PhD; Fulton, Lewis PhD; Cazzola, Pierpaolo |
| Abstract: | A rapid transition to a near-zero-emission transportation system in California and Europe will require rapid uptake of transportation technologies, changes in transportation services, and investments in associated infrastructure. These in turn require policy innovations. This report compares California and EU policies across three broad areas: 1) greenhouse gas (GHG) targets for 2030 to 2050; 2) progress on reducing GHG emissions from different transportation modes; and 3) current strategies and policies to achieve targets. Differences by region and across major modes are identified. Strategies cover electrification, uptake of hydrogen, aviation and shipping fuels, and modal shifts. Policies include regulatory requirements (fuel economy and CO2 standards, fuel standards); incentive programs, including taxation, feebates, and others; direct investment programs; equity considerations and environmental justice-related initiatives. In both geographies, a range of impactful policies are in place. However, these fall short of guaranteeing that targets will be met, and more actions will likely be needed. Some possibilities are presented, with a particular focus on pricing strategies. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Decarbonization, Zero emission vehicles, Greenhouse gases, Sustainable transportation, Alternate fuels, Policy analysis, Regulation |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6d08m3s5 |
| By: | Fuchs, Maximilian; Ströbel, Johannes; Terstegge, Julian |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of carbon price uncertainty on firms’ decisions to decarbonize their operations. We first use information on the pricing of options on emission allowances in the European Emissions Trading System to create the Carbon VIX, a market-based high-frequency measure of carbon price uncertainty. Carbon price uncertainty is high, varies substantially over time, and experiences persistent shocks around major climate policy events. To explore the effects of carbon price uncertainty on expected aggregate decarbonization investments, we analyze its effect on the stock returns of firms that help other businesses decarbonize. To identify these “carbon solution providers, †we extract common types of decarbonization investments from a large survey of firms, and then identify companies that offer the associated goods and services. We find that the stock returns of these carbon solution providers vary positively with carbon prices, but negatively with carbon price uncertainty. The effect of increases in carbon price uncertainty on our proxy for expected decarbonization investments is economically large and of similar magnitude as the effect of declines in carbon prices. These findings support predictions from real options theory that firms may delay investments in decarbonization when faced with uncertainty about the future costs of emissions. |
| Keywords: | Emissions; Uncertainty; Investments |
| JEL: | G1 G3 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19349 |
| By: | Théo Konc; Jan Christoph Steckel; Jacob Edenhofer; Jens Ewald; Thomas Sterner |
| Abstract: | We study the political consequences of Germany's 2022–2023 electricity price increases using four waves of original panel data. Identification exploits the German billing system, under which suppliers raise monthly instalment payments at dates plausibly exogenous to household characteristics. In a staggered difference-in-differences design with later-treated households as controls, those facing an above-median increase become 7.5 percentage points more likely to support the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). The shift persists, and attitudes, including support for climate policy, adjust only afterwards. This response emerges even though no climate policy caused the shock, households could not anticipate it, parties at both political extremes opposed the underlying sanctions, and compensation was generous. We interpret our reduced-form results in a spatial voting framework in which the loss raises the value of a party's promise of lower future energy costs. Our results imply that the standard welfare-economic separation of efficiency from distribution can carry a political cost even when compensation is generous and non-distortionary. |
| Keywords: | political backlash, energy price increase, right wing populism, panel data |
| JEL: | C23 D30 D63 D72 H23 H50 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12887 |
| By: | Xu, Zhaoyang; Zhu, Lei; , KuoRayMao; Xue, Yongji |
| Abstract: | In the context of global climate mitigation, low carbon energy transitions have become central to sustainable development. However, while pursuing environmental objectives, such transitions may also reshape patterns of resource distribution and participation through institutional arrangements, generating new forms of inequality across distributive, procedural, and recognition dimensions. China, as the world's largest developing country and a major carbon emitter, provides an analytically rich context for examining how low carbon transitions intersect with equity concerns. This study investigates three photovoltaic projects in China: the Tengger Desert New Energy Base in Ningxia, the Dezhou Rooftop PV Program in Shandong, and the Yancheng Solar-Fishery Integration Project in Jiangsu. Drawing on field interviews and policy document analysis, the study employs a thematic grounded coding approach to develop a four dimensional analytical framework covering spatial entitlements, revenue distribution, technological adaptation, and policy design. The findings show that vulnerable rural communities often face constrained spatial rights, limited benefit sharing, uneven adaptive capacity, and restricted participation in top down governance processes. Based on this analysis, the paper develops policy recommendations to enhance institutional inclusiveness, optimize benefit-sharing mechanisms, and strengthen local governance capacity. These insights provide both theoretical contributions to the study of energy justice and practical references for promoting equitable and sustainable energy transitions in the Global South. |
| Date: | 2026–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:56j9h_v1 |
| By: | Fabio Baschetti; Alessandro Gnoatto; Athena Picarelli |
| Abstract: | The integration of weather-dependent renewable generation increases the volatility of residual demand and raises the value of dispatchable low-carbon flexibility. This paper studies the optimal operation of a load-following nuclear power plant owned by a producer that must balance stochastic residual demand while accounting for ramping limits and costly changes in operating regimes. Nuclear output can be increased, decreased, or kept constant, and the production decision is formulated as a finite-horizon optimal switching problem. We analyze both a closed-economy benchmark, where excess production cannot be sold and shortages require costly back-up generation, and an open-economy setting, where the producer can trade electricity at prices driven by aggregate market residual demand. The value functions are characterized as viscosity solutions of a system of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman quasi-variational inequalities, and optimal policies are computed using a monotone semi-Lagrangian scheme. The numerical results show how shortage costs, switching costs, ramping capability, and market access shape optimal nuclear load following. The analysis highlights the economic value of controllable low-carbon capacity in renewable-intensive systems and provides implications for flexibility remuneration, balancing-market design, and interconnection policy. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.10197 |
| By: | Herwig Immervoll |
| Abstract: | International data on public sentiments show that a green transition cannot advance on environmental grounds alone; it must also address economic security and distribute transition costs fairly. This paper reviews national and international studies, presents new results across population groups in OECD countries, and discusses implications for designing and communicating reforms, including accompanying measures to cushion transition costs. On average across 27 OECD countries, over two thirds of respondents express climate concern, with notable upward trends in recent decades and a recent plateauing or softening. Sentiments differ across groups: women are more worried about climate change, and workers in emission-intensive industries sometimes less so. Yet patterns are more complex than stereotypes suggest; for example, older adults are often as concerned as younger ones. Crucially, explicit support for further climate action lags behind abstract climate concern. There is no evidence of systematic pushback against ambitious climate policies, but opinion data underscore the importance of demonstrating policy effectiveness and sharing adjustment burdens equitably. Financially vulnerable households and workers in high-emission sectors are more worried about negative knock-on effects of climate policies. Inclusive policy design, with transparent compensation, can address these economic vulnerabilities and associated concerns about climate action. |
| Keywords: | Climate attitudes, Climate policy, Distributional effects, Just transition, Policy acceptance, Public opinion |
| JEL: | C83 D63 D83 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:elsaab:335-en |
| By: | McDowall, Will; Nejadghorban, Hamid |
| Abstract: | As the world confronts the challenges of multiple environmental crises – particularly the climate emergency – it is important for policymakers to be able to track the scale of economic activity related to the achievement of environmental goals. We highlight the shortcomings of existing definitions and typologies for measuring the ‘environmental goods and service sector’ and related environmental activities. We first set out a new approach to defining green economic activity, which aims to overcome some of the shortcomings of existing approaches. We then explore the potential of new web-scraping tools for supporting the estimation of green economic activity in the UK. We test the alignment between lists of firms identified as involved in low-carbon and renewable energy by an existing ONS survey and by a web-scraping tool (TheDataCity). Our analysis highlights both the limitations and the advantages of web-scraping tools and advocates their use only when coupled with sufficient relevant sector-specific expertise. We also provide illustrative estimates of the scale of green economic activity in the UK, adjusted for our new set of definitions, showing that the true scale of such activities may be at least 70% greater than is captured in the current ONS Environmental Goods and Services Sector estimates. |
| Keywords: | green economy; environmental accounting; web scraping; environmental goods and services sector; official statistics; economic measurement |
| JEL: | C81 E01 Q01 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–08–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2026-11 |
| By: | Jackson, Andrew; Svartzman, Romain; Barmes, David; Pereira da Silva, Luiz Awazu |
| Abstract: | Climate change and volatile fossil fuel prices increasingly drive macroeconomic and price instability. A successful green transition is a precondition for price stability in the long term but could generate inflationary pressures over shorter time horizons. A restrictive monetary response to such pressures would disproportionately affect the capital-intensive green investment needed for a transition. To maintain price stability without compromising the green transition, we propose adaptive inflation targeting, adjustments to monetary operations, and an institutional architecture for systematic monetary–fiscal coordination. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140416 |
| By: | Jacob T. Bradt; Reid Taylor |
| Abstract: | We measure the distributional incidence of U.S. motor-fuel tax holidays using transaction records from ∼13, 200 gasoline stations linked to neighborhood income. The 2026 Iran War raised gasoline expenditure shares 2.9 times more in the lowest- than highest-income census tracts. Pre-shock exposure accounts for 89% of the gap while the residual heterogeneity widens rather than offsets it. State-level tax holiday lowered retail prices but offset the same fraction (28%) of the per-gallon burden across quintiles. A counterfactual federal holiday preserves this incidence. Per-gallon relief is burden-proportional as it attenuates the shock’s level without correcting its regressive income gradient. |
| Keywords: | gasoline tax holidays; pass-through; tax incidence; energy price shocks; distributional analysis |
| JEL: | H22 H23 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:103622 |
| By: | Lasse S. Stötzer (IZA & JRC); Florian Zimmermann (University of Bonn & Max Planck Institute for Behavioral Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the moral roots of climate policy attitudes. We fielded a survey with a representative sample in the US to study the predictive power of moral universalism in explaining heterogeneity in specific climate policy attitudes. Our results reveal that universalism significantly relates to support for various policy measures that prevail in current policy debates in most countries, including domestic policies such as a carbon tax and a green infrastructure program, as well as international policies such as international burden-sharing. This pattern is replicated in simple bystander allocation decisions where respondents are asked to decide “who should pay” to fight climate change or to mitigate the adverse consequences of global warming. Open-text elicitations further corroborate these results and identify moral universalism as a key aspect of how people reason about climate policies. |
| Keywords: | Moral Universalism, Climate Change, Policy Attitudes, Survey |
| JEL: | D01 C91 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:424 |
| By: | Bettarelli, Luca; Furceri, Davide; Pizzuto, Pietro; Shakoor, Nadia |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically investigates the impact of economic and policy uncertainty on green innovation for a sample of 81 advanced and emerging market economies during the period 1976-2020. Our results show that increases in uncertainty lead to a long-lasting decrease in green innovation, measured by the number of new green energy patents. This effect holds for a wide set of technologies, it is larger during recessions and periods of higher financial stress, and in countries with less stringent environment protection regulations. Importantly, the effect of uncertainty on green patents is larger than on non-green patents. Results are robust to several sensitivity tests, including an instrumental variable approach and a difference-in-differences strategy. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty; Innovation |
| JEL: | O31 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19540 |
| By: | Hans-Erik Edsand; Andrés Aleán-Romero; Jhorland Ayala-García; Tania Jiménez Castilla; Sandra C. Valencia |
| Abstract: | Access to electricity remains a major challenge in Colombia’s Non-Interconnected Zones (NIZ), where 1.83 million people lack grid connection. Solar mini-grids are increasingly being deployed to reduce energy poverty, but their broader social and economic impacts and the ways communities adapt to unreliable supply remain underexplored. This study examines transformations linked to mini-grid electrification in three island communities: Isla Fuerte, Isla Múcura, and Santa Cruz del Islote. Using a mixed-methods approach of interviews, focus groups, and secondary data, the research explores changes in cultural practices, entrepreneurship, education, healthcare, and gender roles. Findings show that mini-grids have expanded access to modern technologies, fostering individual consumption while reducing communal socialization. Economic activities in tourism and small-scale commerce have grown, but high electricity costs and unreliable service constrain sustainability. Women have gained new entrepreneurial opportunities, yet structural barriers limit their economic standing. Education and healthcare have improved modestly, though teacher shortages, poor infrastructure, and irregular supply hinder progress. Energy insecurity emerges as a central challenge, driving reliance on private generators and informal energy-sharing networks. The study underscores the limits of electrification as a standalone intervention. Weak planning and insufficient training left the mini-grids unable to meet rising demand, undermining reliability and potential entrepreneurial gains.*****ABSTRACT: Access to electricity remains a major challenge in Colombia’s Non-Interconnected Zones (NIZ), where 1.83 million people lack grid connection. Solar mini-grids are increasingly being deployed to reduce energy poverty, but their broader social and economic impacts and the ways communities adapt to unreliable supply remain underexplored. This study examines transformations linked to mini-grid electrification in three island communities: Isla Fuerte, Isla Múcura, and Santa Cruz del Islote. Using a mixed-methods approach of interviews, focus groups, and secondary data, the research explores changes in cultural practices, entrepreneurship, education, healthcare, and gender roles. Findings show that mini-grids have expanded access to modern technologies, fostering individual consumption while reducing communal socialization. Economic activities in tourism and small-scale commerce have grown, but high electricity costs and unreliable service constrain sustainability. Women have gained new entrepreneurial opportunities, yet structural barriers limit their economic standing. Education and healthcare have improved modestly, though teacher shortages, poor infrastructure, and irregular supply hinder progress. Energy insecurity emerges as a central challenge, driving reliance on private generators and informal energy-sharing networks. The study underscores the limits of electrification as a standalone intervention. Weak planning and insufficient training left the mini-grids unable to meet rising demand, undermining reliability and potential entrepreneurial gains. |
| Keywords: | Rural electrification, Solar mini-grids, Energy poverty, Socioeconomic impacts, Electrificación rural, Mini-redes solares, Pobreza energética, Impactos socioeconómicos |
| JEL: | Q42 O13 I32 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:region:346 |
| By: | Inge van den Bijgaart; Åsa Löfgren |
| Abstract: | Decarbonizing basic materials industries requires coordinated investment between downstream firms adopting abatement technologies and upstream input providers. We model the resulting indirect network effects, which generate a no-investment equilibrium alongside a coordinated one. Carbon pricing and non-discriminatory subsidies cannot resolve this coordination failure without overshooting the optimum. Subsidies targeted at firms below a cost threshold implement the optimal coordinated equilibrium without distortion. We further show that excluding the lowest-cost firms, who invest voluntarily once others lead, shrinks the subsidized group, and that targeting remains effective under imperfect observability and imprecise targeting. Our results provide formal support for targeted industrial policy. |
| Keywords: | climate policy, coordination, industrial decarbonization, indirect network effects, industrial policy |
| JEL: | H23 O33 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12916 |
| By: | Helena Cordt; Julien Daubanes; Yiding Ma; Julien Xavier Daubanes |
| Abstract: | In the spirit of green finance taxonomies, restricting fossil-fuel producers' access to funds is hoped to help address the climate problem. We develop a project-level model of oil production, calibrate it to the universe of U.S. and Canadian oil projects producible over 2000-2024, and simulate the effects of the cost of capital. Modest increases in this cost are counterproductive, increasing oil production through industry short-termism while reducing project value. Effective costs of capital are unrealistically large, at odds with projects' internal rates of return. At the industry level, a higher cost of capital generates equilibrium adjustments that boost oil profitability. |
| Keywords: | oil divestment, green finance, short-termism, unintended policy impact, internal rates of return |
| JEL: | G1 H20 Q31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12865 |
| By: | Kristoffer Christensen; Bo N{\o}rregaard J{\o}rgensen; Zheng Grace Ma |
| Abstract: | This work addresses the need for engineering-grounded evaluation of implement-ed tariff mechanisms in distribution-level energy systems. A digital twin-based method is proposed for assessing local collective tariffs under realistic behavioral and infrastructural conditions. The approach integrates agent-based modeling of household consumption and generation, virtual aggregation through a shared metering abstraction, and explicit representation of tariff logic within a unified simulation environment. The method is demonstrated through its application to the Danish Local Collective Tariff across representative residential energy community configurations, including scenarios with photovoltaic generation, battery storage, and electric vehicle charging. Results indicate that aggregation of heterogeneous demand profiles reduces peak coincidence and enables more efficient allocation of tariff components, leading to measurable cost reductions at the community level. At the same time, the outcomes reveal sensitivity to the temporal alignment of consumption and generation, influencing the degree of cost neutrality across participants. The findings illustrate how digital twin-based evaluation can support systematic assessment of tariff mechanisms by capturing the interaction between infrastructure, user behavior, and regulatory design. The proposed approach provides a basis for analyzing and comparing tariff structures in distribution-level energy systems beyond the specific case considered. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.17640 |
| By: | Alessandrini, Fabio; Jondeau, Eric; Vallée, Lou-Salomé |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of various portfolio construction techniques in the context of decarbonization and the pursuit of net-zero objectives aligned with the 2015 Paris Agreement. Specifically, we examine different strategies that qualify as Article 9 funds under EU regulations, focusing on carbon emissions reduction objectives, such as screening and tracking error minimization techniques. Our findings indicate that all approaches would have achieved the targeted emissions reductions over the 10-year period (2012-2021) analyzed. However, the method of decarbonization significantly affects ex-post tracking errors, with the more ambitious Paris-Aligned Benchmark requiring a substantial departure from the business-as-usual benchmark. Additionally, the tracking error minimization approach involves considerable reallocation of individual securities, potentially leading to, possibly undesirable, idiosyncratic exposures. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Net-zero investment; Portfolio carbon footprint |
| JEL: | G11 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19421 |
| By: | Bobtcheff, Catherine; De Donder, Philippe; Salanié, François |
| Abstract: | We set up a static model of electricity provision in which delivery to consumers is only imperfectly reliable. Blackouts can be either rolling or systemic; in both cases a price cap has to be imposed on the wholesale market. We characterize optimal allocations and we show that for any given value of the price cap on the wholesale market, one can decentralize these allocations thanks to two types of regulatory instruments: a retail tax, and capacity subsidies. Some properties follow. If demand is affected by multiplicative shocks only, capacity subsidies are exactly financed by the revenues from the retail tax. If moreover the distribution of systemic blackouts is exogenous, a price cap is sufficient, provided it is set at the value of lost load. In all other cases, all instruments are needed, and capacity subsidies need to be differentiated, based on the correlation between available capacity and its social value. |
| Keywords: | Electricity; Renewables; Climate change |
| JEL: | D24 Q41 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19318 |
| By: | Könneke, Jule |
| Abstract: | Under President Gustavo Petro, Colombia has positioned itself internationally as a leader in climate action and in pursuing a just transition away from fossil fuels. Among other things, Petro's climate and energy policy relied on supply-side measures to limit the exploitation of fossil fuels - a unique approach among those countries in the Global South that, like Colombia, export fossil fuels. At the same time, Petro has had only limited success in implementing this agenda within his own country. With the election victory of the right-wing opposition candidate, Abelardo de la Espriella, the future of this reform course is now being renegotiated. Whether the transformation in Colombia succeeds without jeopardising short-term economic stability, security of supply, and social cohesion is relevant for many countries that export fossil fuels and have only limited fiscal space. They are therefore closely watching whether, and under what conditions, Germany and the European Union (EU) provide support for Colombia's transformation. Failure would have political implications beyond Colombia. |
| Keywords: | Global South, EU, Germany, Gustavo Petro, export of fossil fuels, energy transition, TAFF, Santa Marta conference, UN climate process, COP28, COP30, presidential election, transformation partnerships |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:342575 |
| By: | Hinchberger, Andrew; Jacobsen, Mark; Knittel, Christopher; Sallee, James; van Benthem, Arthur |
| Abstract: | The marginal cost of electricity fluctuates hour-by-hour, yet retail customers typically face flat prices. Using data from all seven US wholesale markets and a new method to evaluate alternative rates set in advance that accounts for equilibrium price effects, we estimate efficiency gains from time-varying price schedules that better align price with cost. We have three main results. First, time-of-use rates and critical-peak pricing, the two most common time-varying rate plans, each correct about 10% of mispricing. Second, complex rate structures based on historical prices often backfire. Third, real-time pricing with price ceilings can capture most potential efficiency gains. |
| JEL: | L94 L97 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19475 |
| By: | Rabah Arezki; Frederick van der Ploeg; Rick van der Ploeg |
| Abstract: | Critical mineral maps portray known resource endowments as fixed geographic facts, yet the resource base is endogenous to both demand conditions and institutional factors. The prevailing framing of critical mineral scarcity ignores the extent to which resources are discovered only when it is profitable to do so. Using a two-region model of endogenous reserves, we show that exploration investment and discovered reserves respond to global demand shocks, world resource prices, and the institutional environment facing international resource companies, including explicit and implicit taxes on exploration and on exports, including export bans and restrictive trade measures in pursuit of value-chain upgrading. While export bans may be attractive as industrial policy, they risk being self-defeating: by discouraging exploration investment, they reduce the very resource base on which industrial ambitions depend. We document the global proliferation of export restrictions on critical minerals and discuss the policy implications for developing countries navigating the twin pressures of resource nationalism and the green transition. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals, endogenous resources, exploration investment, export ban, resource nationalism, green transition, developing countries |
| JEL: | Q31 Q32 Q38 F13 O13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12877 |
| By: | Wang, Wei; Cai, Yongyang |
| Abstract: | Trade policies are becoming increasingly persistent and play an important role in shaping global production, trade, and emissions patterns. Because such policies affect economic agents’ expectations about future market conditions, their impacts may extend beyond contemporaneous trade reallocation through capital accumulation and climate–economy feedback. This paper develops a forward-looking integrated assessment framework that incorporates sector-level bilateral trade to evaluate the dynamic effects of U.S. tariffs and the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The results show that endogenous capital accumulation substantially amplifies the effects of trade policies on welfare, emissions, and employment. U.S. tariffs primarily redistribute welfare toward the United States while having little effect on global emissions. In contrast, CBAM generates larger emissions reductions but concentrates both welfare losses and emissions-reduction burdens in developing and transition economies. We also find significant dynamic employment adjustments, with substantial differences between short-run and long-run responses across regions and sectors. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404469 |
| By: | Lee, Wonseok; Kim, Jaebeom; Brorsen, B. Wade |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how shocks in the natural gas and corn markets influence nitrogen fertilizer prices and how these relationships change after the 2005 and 2007 changes in biofuel policies. Using a block-recursive structural VAR framework, we decompose changes in fertilizer prices into structural shocks driven by supply, demand, and precautionary demand. The results show that fertilizer prices are influenced mainly by demand-side shocks, while supply shocks have only small effects on prices. After the structural break, corn demand shocks become more influential, indicating tighter linkages between corn and fertilizer markets. These findings imply that biofuel policies increased nitrogen fertilizer price volatility by strengthening the linkages between energy and agriculture, with fertilizer price movements driven primarily by demand-side shock |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea26:404832 |
| By: | Poornima Varma; Sunghun Lim; Drishti Sharma |
| Abstract: | Do global value chains (GVCs) make firms cleaner, and under what conditions? Leveraging rich firm-level data from India in the period of 2010–2024, this study investigates the impact of GVC participation on firms’ environmental performance. To address dynamics and heterogeneous responses, we estimate dynamic panel threshold regressions with firm growth as the regime variable. We find that GVC participation raises energy and carbon intensity for low-growth firms but reduces both—and increases renewable energy use—for high-growth firms. Channel decomposition shows that forward participation delivers the clearest efficiency and decarbonization gains in the high-growth regime, while backward participation improves energy efficiency at high growth yet exhibits mixed carbon effects; in the low-growth regime, forward linkages raise intensity whereas backward linkages are comparatively less harmful or even carbon-reducing. This paper underscores the capacity-dependence of trade integration’s environmental impact and shows that policy can shift the relevant margin through finance, R&D, and compliance infrastructure. |
| Date: | 2026–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14736 |
| By: | Reaser, Robert; Kay, Owen; Taylor, Reid |
| Abstract: | Artificial-intelligence-driven data centers are reversing two decades of flat U.S. electricity demand and have generated questions about how this growth will impact electricity prices. We quantify this effect using an hourly, unit-level least-cost dispatch model covering wholesale electricity markets in the continental United States. We find that existing data centers have already increased wholesale prices by 2 to 6% on average nationwide, with substantially larger effects in regions hosting major data center corridors. Extending the model through 2028, we show that if proposed construction proceeds under high-utilization scenarios, wholesale prices could rise dramatically (50%), while more moderate build-out yields smaller (20%) but still meaningful effects. Impacts vary due to utilization and build-out assumptions. Finally, we use the model to address several policy discussions including optimal data center siting decisions and renewable build-out uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404751 |
| By: | Jingyi Xu; Minghui Cheng; Anchen Sun |
| Abstract: | Buildings account for roughly 34% of global final energy use and 37% of energy- and process-related CO$_2$ emissions. Stranding regulation now being enacted (New York City Local Law 97, the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive recast) presupposes that a building portfolio's carbon intensity can be measured per square metre and compared against a science-based pathway. Whether corporate disclosure is actually fit for that comparison has not, to our knowledge, been measured at scale. We introduce BeDA (the Built-environment Decarbonisation-disclosure Auditor), a multimodal large-language-model instrument, and apply it to a global firm panel (2, 246 firms, 2003-2023). Its standards-compliance score is reliable across models and model families and convergent with three independent external criteria. Most disclosure is unfit: only about one built-environment firm-report in five discloses operational carbon intensity per $m^2$ (21.5% in a region-stratified sample of 200 firm-reports, Wilson 95% CI [16.4%, 27.7%], inter-extractor $\kappa$=0.95; 45.5% across 519 real-estate firm-reports, $\kappa$=0.97). The rate is roughly twice as high in Europe as in the United States (64-74% versus 37% for listed real estate). Among the 215 real-estate firm-reports for which an intensity can be constructed, 39% already exceed the Carbon Risk Real Estate Monitor (CRREM) 1.5 {\deg}C pathway's intensity limit. Credibility does not predict stranding readiness once portfolio size is controlled; this is a screening tool, not a forecast. The main obstacle to enforceable building-stranding regulation is therefore a measurable, jurisdiction-specific reporting gap, one that a targeted disclosure mandate can close and that BeDA can monitor. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.22006 |
| By: | Leonard, Clara; Braun, Ben; Klooster, Jens van 't; Monnet, Eric |
| Abstract: | The Hormuz shock of February 2026 confronts the European Central Bank (ECB) with a familiar dilemma: inaction can risk entrenching inflation, while tightening risks deepening the slowdown and penalising renewable energy and cleantech investment. We argue that the ECB should be cautious and, if tightening proves necessary, ensure its operations shield renewable energy and cleantech sectors. Our analysis also reveals a growing gap between the ECB's communication on fossil fuel risks and its policy framework. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140409 |
| By: | Ina Meyer; Mark Sommer (WIFO); André Baumgart (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Institute of Social Ecology); Nina Eisenmenger (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Institute of Social Ecology); Doris Virág (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Institute of Social Ecology); Kurt Kratena (Centre of Economic Scenario Analysis and Research); Willi Haas (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Institute of Social Ecology) |
| Abstract: | Growth in resource use is a key driver of climate change and environmental degradation. In recognition of this, a few governments have set targets to reduce their countries' per capita resource use while striving to achieve the goals set out in the Paris Agreement. In this context, the concept of the circular economy (CE) has attracted mounting interest as a means of mitigating climate change, reducing resource use and waste generation, while advancing economic performance. This paper uses a mass-balanced biophysical model (CeAT) linked to a macroeconomic model (DYNK) of the Austrian economy to analyse different stock-flow scenarios, combining a decarbonization scheme with CE strategies at varying levels of ambition. The analysis examines Austria's buildings, transport, and electricity sectors, evaluating economic impacts by employment, GDP, and disposable income results. The framework incorporates two stylized indirect rebounds effects arising from CE strategies of narrowing, i.e. reduced growth in infrastructure, buildings or car fleets. These rebound effects, driven by the reallocation of financial resources, manifest through two distinct consumption pathways: service-oriented and goods-oriented expenditure patterns. Findings indicate, the strong CE scenario can achieve substantial dematerialization. At the same time, it shows potentially the highest average growth rates in disposable income when combined with a service-oriented rebound. First order CE strategies (refuse, rethink, reduce) are therefore of key importance for the triple agenda of climate mitigation, resource use reductions and economic growth. Particularly, demand-side reductions can enhance economic performance if the rebound effects are constrained by reallocating the freed-up expenditure to low-material-intensity services. |
| Keywords: | Decarbonization, Scenario analysis, Indirect rebound effect, Resource consumption, Economic impact analysis, Circular economy |
| Date: | 2026–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2026:i:732 |
| By: | César Osta (Uruguay. Ministerio de Industria, Energía y Minería); Pablo Blanchard (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Rodrigo Ceni González |
| Abstract: | Why do electricity systems maintain costly thermal capacity that appears difficult to justify under standard market criteria, and what are the welfare consequences of doing so? We address this question by interpreting thermal backup capacity as a form of reliability insurance against high-impact, low-probability scarcity events. Building on the model of Joskow and Tirole (2007), we incorporate social risk aversion into the capacity-planning problem, allowing investment decisions to reflect not only expected welfare losses but also society’s concern about extreme scarcity events. Using detailed data from the Uruguayan electricity system, we estimate the degree of social risk aversion implicit in observed capacity choices and evaluate the resulting welfare distribution across consumers with different sensitivities to real-time prices. We find that a risk-neutral framework can explain most generation capacity but fails to account for more than 60% of the system’s fossil thermal capacity. The observed capacity plan is instead consistent with a planning criterion that places substantial weight on welfare losses associated with extreme scarcity events. Additional thermal capacity increases welfare for both consumer groups. Price-insensitive consumers benefit primarily through reduced exposure to electricity shortages, while price-sensitive consumers benefit through lower expected electricity costs and reduced reliance on self-generation. However, the costs and benefits of this reliability insurance are unevenly distributed. Although the welfare gain for price-insensitive consumers is substantially larger, they finance most of the additional investment through higher electricity prices, generating significant welfare transfers toward price-sensitive consumers. |
| Keywords: | Real-time price sensitivity, Rationing welfare loss, Reliableness, High-impact low-probability events |
| JEL: | L11 L52 L94 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-08-26 |
| By: | Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Gillingham, Kenneth; Scheidegger, Simon |
| Abstract: | There is a rapidly advancing literature on the macroeconomics of climate change. This review focuses on developments in the construction and solution of structural integrated assessment models (IAMs), highlighting the marriage of state-of-the-art natural science with general equilibrium theory. We discuss challenges in solving dynamic stochastic IAMs with sharp nonlinearities, multiple regions, and multiple sources of risk. Key innovations in deep learning and other machine learning approaches overcome many computational challenges and enhance the accuracy and relevance of policy findings. We conclude with an overview of recent applications of IAMs and key policy insights. |
| Keywords: | Climate change |
| JEL: | C61 E27 Q5 Q51 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19468 |
| By: | Battiston, Stefano; Monasterolo, Irene; Montone, Maurizio |
| Abstract: | Firms’ investments in green technology are crucial for investors’ alignment to the Net Zero target. However, it is still unclear whether these investments are rewarded by the market, particularly in the long run. Using a science-based technological measure of greenness, we find that adopting sustainable technologies leads to a long-run improvement in fundamentals that is only partially reflected in stock prices. Correspondingly, firms with greener technologies achieve higher returns over a multi-year period and are better positioned for the transition to a low-carbon economy. These effects are especially pronounced in financially developed countries and among firms with better climate-related disclosure. |
| JEL: | G10 G12 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19337 |
| By: | Hale, Galina; Meisenbacher, Brigid; Nechio, Fernanda |
| Abstract: | In the past two decades, a number of banks joined global initiatives aimed to mitigate climate change by ``greening'' their asset portfolios. We study whether banks that made such commitments have a different emission exposure of their portfolios of syndicated loans than banks that did not. We rely on loan-level information with global coverage combined with country-industry information on emissions. We find that all banks have reduced their loan-emission exposures over the last 8 years. However, we do not find differences between banks that did and those that did not signal their sustainability goals, with the exception of early signers of Principles of Responsible Investments (PRI), who already had lower exposure to emissions through their syndicated lending. In addition, banks that signed PRI shortened the maturity of the loans extended to highly-emitting industries but only temporarily. Thus, we conclude that banks reduced their exposure to climate transition risks on average, but voluntary climate commitments did not contribute to syndicated loan reallocation away from highly-emitting sectors. |
| Keywords: | climate; Syndicated loans |
| JEL: | G21 F21 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19357 |
| By: | Littlechild, S.; Baldick, R. |
| Abstract: | The Texas Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) process remains highly relevant to current transmission planning. Its significance lies not in providing a template to be copied mechanically, but in showing how a regulator can address a transmission "chicken and egg" problem that ordinary incremental planning is poorly equipped to solve. Senate Bill 20 of 2005 required the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) to designate renewable zones and develop transmission to deliver their output "in a manner that is most beneficial and cost-effective to the customers." In 2008 the Commission approved a transmission plan capable of supporting about 18, 500 MW of wind generation, and by early 2014 nearly 3, 600 miles of new transmission had been built. The process may be understood as a hybrid institutional mechanism combining legislative mandate, regulatory planning and backstop, and negotiated implementation in provider selection and siting. The CREZ experience also illustrates the limits of anticipatory transmission planning: it relied on only partial ex ante cost -benefit discipline, imposed local burdens that were not always fully compensated, and used a competitive designation model that Texas later curtailed. Current transmission policy could recover the logic of CREZ, but improve the instruments: by using more explicit benefit tests, transparent cost allocation, better treatment of local burdens, safeguards against incumbent control, and deliberate use of negotiated-settlement techniques under a regulatory backstop. |
| Keywords: | Transmission Planning, CREZ, ERCOT, Renewable Energy Zones, Negotiated Settlements, Cost Allocation, Anticipatory Investment |
| JEL: | L94 L51 Q48 D02 |
| Date: | 2026–07–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2662 |
| By: | Shin, Jong Hoon; Lee, Seungki; Ji, Yongjie |
| Abstract: | This study estimates month-specific yield associations between U.S. corn yields and five air pollutants: fine particulate matter (PM2.5), ground-level ozone at 60 and 80 ppb thresholds (AOT60 and AOT80, respectively), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO). We draw on data that combine an extensive commercial variety trial dataset of 210, 207 observations from 17 U.S. states (2000-2023) with EPA Air Quality System monitor measurements. Our findings show that the aggregate effect of pollutants during the growing season is mostly negative yet minor or statistically insignificant; however, monthly decomposition uncovers systematic heterogeneity. For PM2.5, March exposure is associated with a 1.3 bu/acre yield reduction per μg/m3, while August exposure is associated with a 1.0 bu/acre increase, a seasonal pattern consistent with an aerosol scattering channel. The August AOT60 coefficient is −0.030 bu/acre per ppb·hour, with a more pronounced negative effect under AOT80. NO2 shows negative associations in March and August; SO2 and CO show none. Interestingly, the estimates provide little evidence that genetically engineered varieties mitigate yield losses from air pollutants; if anything, they suggest larger losses, except for the PM2.5 interaction. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404440 |
| By: | Ben Gilbert; Hannah Gagarin; Maxwell Fleming |
| Abstract: | This project generates population estimates of the local economic impacts of energy development, specifically focusing on wind energy generation facilities. We compare results from two prominent methodologies in the literature: (1) an “outward-propagating†model that aggregates earnings and employment outcomes for workers and establishments located in increasing radii around the locations of a wind generation facilities and control sites, and (2) a “spatial lag†model (which has become the dominant approach in the literature during this project) that uses the individual workers as the unit of observation and aggregates their exposure to wind energy generation facilities at increasing radii around their georeferenced residence locations. We further explore how data aggregation impacts results by repeating these analyses using data that has first been aggregated to the county level before further aggregating to an “outward-propagating†or “spatial lag†framework. We have two main findings. First, we find that the spatial lag approach gives much more reliable results than the outward propagating model, with the latter model likely overstating the aggregate local impacts of a given economic shock and producing less stable estimates. Second, we find that aggregating underlying individual data to the county level before implementing either of the models severely dampens economic impact estimates in most cases, highlighting the importance of either gaining access to representative georeferenced samples or finding another geographic aggregation at which to produce publicly available data products in order to generate reliable estimates of local impacts of economic shocks. |
| Keywords: | LEHD |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:tnotes:26-26 |
| By: | Jhorland Ayala-García; Jaime Alfredo Bonet-Moron; Eduardo Haddad; Inácio Araújo |
| Abstract: | Around the world, demographic transitions are reshaping consumption patterns and influencing environmental outcomes. In Colombia, demographic change is expected to alter household spending, reducing demand in sectors such as education and transportation while increasing consumption in healthcare. These shifts have implications for energy demand and CO₂ emissions. This study examines the relationship between demographic change and consumption behavior across age groups, using data from the 2016-2017 National Household Budget Survey and age-specific projections for 2020-2050. We use Seemingly Unrelated Regression models to estimate sectoral consumption shares based on population age and project the sector specific trends to 2050. A regional input-output model is then applied to assess the impact of projected changes in consumption on total CO₂ emissions. Findings suggest a national decline in emissions by 2050, though regional disparities emerge: Bogotá and the Central-East region may see increases, while other regions are projected to experience reductions.*****ABSTRACT: Around the world, demographic transitions are reshaping consumption patterns and influencing environmental outcomes. In Colombia, demographic change is expected to alter household spending, reducing demand in sectors such as education and transportation while increasing consumption in healthcare. These shifts have implications for energy demand and CO₂ emissions. This study examines the relationship between demographic change and consumption behavior across age groups, using data from the 2016-2017 National Household Budget Survey and age-specific projections for 2020-2050. We use Seemingly Unrelated Regression models to estimate sectoral consumption shares based on population age and project the sector specific trends to 2050. A regional input-output model is then applied to assess the impact of projected changes in consumption on total CO₂ emissions. Findings suggest a national decline in emissions by 2050, though regional disparities emerge: Bogotá and the Central-East region may see increases, while other regions are projected to experience reductions. |
| Keywords: | Demographic change, Consumption patterns, CO₂ emissions, Population aging, climate change, Cambio demográfico, Patrones de consumo, Emisiones de CO₂, Envejecimiento de la población, Cambio climatico |
| JEL: | Q56 J11 D12 R15 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:region:348 |
| By: | Sebastian M. Peters; Jürgen Huber; Michael Kirchler |
| Abstract: | The climate crisis is one of the major challenges mankind currently faces and, through green investments, the finance industry can play a crucial role in tackling it. However, this topic still appears to be controversially discussed in finance, and only very few studies have investigated the behavior of finance professionals with respect to green investments. In this experiment, we investigate the behavior of 174 finance professionals and 192 participants of the general population, measuring drivers of decision making in green investments. We find in both participant pools that individuals who say it feels better to invest in green assets also do so. Between the two subject pools, we find no difference in investment propensity in green assets. Furthermore, we observe that financially literate participants invest significantly more green and achieve higher portfolio returns. Interesting, while 89 percent of participants say they would not be ready to forego returns for greener assets, only 10 percent select the portfolio with the highest possible return. |
| Keywords: | Green investments, finance professionals, experimental finance |
| JEL: | C90 G40 G41 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2026-07 |
| By: | Konstantinos Chatziandreou; Sven Karbach |
| Abstract: | Pay-as-produced power purchase agreements (PPAs) expose buyers and sellers to the joint risk of power prices and renewable production. This paper develops a theoretical framework for hedging this exposure using a semi-static strategy: liquid futures hedge traded price risk dynamically, while a fixed portfolio of renewable-linked claims targets residual volume and covariance risk. The pricing and hedging decomposition is model-free, whereas the empirical implementation for German wind and solar generation uses a calibrated stochastic model. Conditional on a valuation measure, the fair strike is a production-weighted expected spot price. We show that it decomposes exactly into the baseload forward level, a deterministic production-profile correction, and a stochastic price-volume covariance correction, where the covariance term measures the pricing effect of renewable cannibalisation. The static hedge is selected through a finite-dimensional variance projection onto claims linked to renewable volume, delivery-period average prices, and price-volume covariance. We estimate a L\'evy-driven bivariate MCARMA state-space model with state-dependent price spikes using hourly German data for 2023-2024 and apply it to monthly PPAs over the January-December 2025 delivery horizon. The results distinguish deterministic profile risk from stochastic covariance risk and show how sparse static overlays reduce residual exposures that fixed-volume futures cannot hedge. The selected portfolios also indicate which claim types are most effective for hedging residual renewable shape risk. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.27814 |
| By: | Kostovetsky, Leonard; Peng, Lin; Rauh, Christopher; Yönaç, Muhammed |
| Abstract: | What drives people’s attitudes towards climate change and does it matter for economic outcomes? We address these questions by constructing a novel measure of local climate change attention using a comprehensive news dataset extracted from over 5, 000 US newspapers from 2000-2022. We document an increasing trend in climate attention and growing polarization in climate-related sentiment across the US. Local climate attention, while comoves with national trends, exhibits significant regional variation. It correlates with local education levels, Democratic party affiliation, and extreme weather events, but not by local greenhouse gas emissions or toxic releases. Exploiting exogenous variation, we find that higher local climate attention is associated with increased individual investment in ESG-focused ETFs and improved environmental performance of local firms. These findings suggest local climate attention significantly influences investment decisions and corporate environmental policies. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; ESG; Sustainable investing |
| JEL: | G11 G14 G20 G41 G29 G39 G50 Q5 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19453 |
| By: | Juergen Renn (Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, Jena, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Designs for international climate cooperation face a trade-off between efficiency and robustness to institutional erosion by defection, renegotiation, and political turnover. We formalize this trade-off in a stylized coalition-formation game with two market-based enrolment channels, a membership premium and an outsider drain, stabilized against bounded perturbations with robust control. The free-rider gap is exact within the game, expressed in measurable primitives, and separated from the architecture-specific channels. The drain is decomposed into a fiscal border channel, capped by trade law at the rent it mirrors, and a compensated terms-of-trade channel, making every channel strength measurable. With sufficiently strong channels the model is bistable: a remnant club and a near-universal coalition are separated by a critical mass. For a newly proposed carbon currency, whose emission rights are reissued each period, extinguished upon use, and enforced at the border, the minimal nucleus is thirty per cent of global emissions, ignition from an EU-China nucleus requires compensating one fifth to three fifths of the outsiders' terms-of-trade loss, the established coalition withstands two to four times the perturbation admissible at ignition, and the tipping survives heterogeneity to about three times the membership premium. Two robustness coordinates place each architecture in a map with three regimes, opening a comparative dynamics of climate clubs: the carbon currency is self-igniting, the border adjustment founding-dependent, the export rebate permanent-support-dependent. Architectures without a drain improve efficiency within a coalition but cannot drive its formation. Robustness governs whether cooperation forms and endures; efficiency decides how much an established coalition delivers. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.12143 |
| By: | Colin Davis (Doshisha University); Ken-ichi Hashimoto (Kobe University); Ken Tabata (Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how environmental policy designed to reduce transboundary pollution affects long-run productivity growth through shifts in the geographic location of industry. We construct a two-country endogenous growth and endogenous market structure framework in which there is a positive link between the geographic concentration of industry and the strength of knowledge spillovers from production to innovation. Emissions are generated as a byproduct of production. We show that an increase in the emissions tax of the country with a larger (smaller) share of industry lowers the concentration of industry leading to weaker (stronger) knowledge spillovers and a slower (faster) rate of productivity growth. In addition, we identify cases where a rise in the emissions tax of the country with a smaller share of industry lowers emissions while increasing productivity growth. With endogenous emissions taxes, a numerical analysis shows that stronger knowledge diffusion leads to higher tax rates, faster productivity growth, and lower global emissions. In contrast, trade liberalization leads to lower tax rates and eventually raises global emissions despite faster productivity growth. Our results highlight that the relationship between productivity growth and global emissions depends critically on the form of economic integration. |
| Keywords: | Asset bubbles; Emissions Taxes, Industry Location, Knowledge Diffusion, Trade Liberalization, Productivity Growth, Global Emissions, Endogenous Market Structure, Endogenous Policy |
| JEL: | F12 O40 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1129 |
| By: | Prest, Brian C. (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | The social cost of carbon (SCC) is an estimate, in dollars, of the economic damages to society caused by an incremental ton of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. In 2023, EPA (US EPA 2023) produced updated, peer-reviewed SCC estimates, with a central value of $190 per metric ton of CO2 (in 2020 US dollars) for emissions occurring in 2020. EPA’s updated estimates also include estimates for other years beyond 2020 and other greenhouse gases of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), which are shown in Appendix Table A1. These estimates represent the most scientifically advanced, comprehensively documented, and peer reviewed set of SCC values available, and states are increasingly adopting EPA’s estimates to inform policy.As of early 2026, at least 15 US states had applied the social cost of greenhouse gases in one or more policy contexts. This report is intended for officials and analysts in states that are considering adopting the SCC as a policymaking and monitoring tool, refining how they already use it, or updating their preferred values in light of recent and ongoing scientific advances in methods and estimates. Section 2 provides background on the concept of the SCC and summarizes how US states have been using it. Section 3 provides a high-level summary of how the SCC is calculated, with particular attention to the four-module framework that underlies the SCC estimates from RFF and EPA. Finally, Section 4 summarizes considerations for jurisdictions designing their own guidance while providing detailed instructions on how states might apply it for their own policymaking purposes. |
| Date: | 2026–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-26-11 |
| By: | Andrea Bastianin (University of Milan, Italy and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)); Elisabetta Mirto (Study Center Gerzensee); Yan Qin (ClearBlue Markets); Luca Rossini (University of Milan, Italy and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)) |
| Abstract: | We tackle the issue of producing point, sign, and density forecasts for the monthly real price of carbon within the European carbon market, EU ETS. We show that a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model, augmented with factors based on macroeconomic and financial variables, yields accuracy gains over a set of benchmark forecasts in both point and density forecasts. We also provide a qualitative comparison of model-based forecasts with survey expectations and forecasts released by data providers. Moreover, we consider verified emissions and demonstrate that adding stochastic volatility can further improve the forecasting performance of a single-factor BVAR model. Lastly, we rely on forecasts to build market monitoring tools that track demand and price pressure in the EU ETS. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:szg:worpap:2603 |
| By: | Karanam, Vaishnavi; Tal, Gil; Garas, Dahlia |
| Abstract: | The Caltrans ZEV 30-30 project is established to support California's goal of deploying five million ZEVs on the road by 2030, focusing on filling gaps in the State Highway System's corridor ZEV charging network. The reliability of DC Fast Charging (DCFC) infrastructure along these corridors is essential. Unreliable chargers erode driver confidence and undermine the transition to zero-emission transportation. Charging Station Operators (CSOs) currently rely on conventional monitoring protocols, primarily the Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP), to detect charger failures. While OCPP-based monitoring is effective for detecting most electrical and software failures, it cannot identify a broad class of faults arising from mechanical damage, physical obstruction, network communication outages, or logistical barriers. [1, 2] These hidden issues persist until an EV driver encounters the faulty charger and reports the problem, leading to delayed fault resolution and degraded consumer experience.This report presents a predictive anomaly detection tool developed under Caltrans Agreement No. 65A1188 that enables Charging Station Operators to detect hidden charging faults by analyzing habitual EV driver usage patterns. The tool incorporates two anomaly detection models: a naïve probability distribution-based technique and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) autoencoder. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, electric vehicle, DCFC, Charging system operator, charger failure, fault, reliability, remote, anomaly detection |
| Date: | 2026–08–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3x94v79x |
| By: | Rischan Mafrur; Fadli Ikhsan Pratama; Khadijah |
| Abstract: | Indonesia has established a regulated carbon market supported by national registry infrastructure and the IDXCarbon exchange. Carbon units can be issued, recorded, traded, and retired within this framework. IDXCarbon currently uses a private blockchain for its trading infrastructure. This creates an opportunity to examine how Indonesian carbon credits could also be represented and traded through public blockchain infrastructure. This study proposes an architecture for tokenizing Indonesian carbon credits as real-world assets (RWAs), with particular focus on Sertifikat Pengurangan Emisi Gas Rumah Kaca (SPE-GRK). The proposed architecture retains the Sistem Registri Unit Karbon (SRUK) as the authoritative source of carbon-unit status. It introduces a public-blockchain layer for token representation and programmable transactions. The architecture is designed to support lifecycle management, token-based asset representation, public observability of token activity, interoperability, wallet-based transactions, and programmable settlement. The architecture consists of four layers: the authoritative carbon layer, the registry interoperability and tokenization layer, the public-blockchain RWA layer, and the market and application layer. Access to the tokenized carbon assets remains regulated. Token issuance and transfers are linked to participant eligibility and registry status. Retirement also remains dependent on the authoritative carbon registry. The proposed architecture provides a framework for introducing public-blockchain RWA infrastructure into Indonesia's existing carbon market while maintaining SRUK authority and existing market-integrity controls. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.15597 |
| By: | Zihao Zhang; Yuanbo Zhang; Xiaolei Ma; Yuan Liao |
| Abstract: | Urban decarbonization often raises the cost of travel, yet which neighbourhoods can adapt remains largely invisible under normal conditions. We leverage the 2026 US-Iran oil shock as a natural experiment, applying a hierarchical panel regression discontinuity design to 1.7 trillion point-of-interest visits across 122, 000 neighbourhoods in China and the United States. Mobility range declined in nearly three-quarters of neighbourhoods, but responses varied systematically with pre-shock urban conditions. Exposure to energy-intensive travel explained the largest share of modelled heterogeneity in both countries, while adaptive capacity and activity composition further shaped how travel was reorganized. Longer baseline travel intensified contraction, whereas greater car dependence constrained adjustment. Crucially, similar mobility outcomes arose from different processes: some neighbourhoods maintained travel by absorbing higher costs, whereas others appeared structurally locked into travel they could not reorganize. Fuel-price shocks, therefore, act as urban stress tests, revealing otherwise hidden inequalities in mobility adaptation. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.12281 |
| By: | Ryan Niladri Banerjee; Fiorella De Fiore; Marco Jacopo Lombardi; Giovanni Lombardo |
| Abstract: | The recent energy shock ranks among the most significant since the 1990s.Structural factors and initial conditions influence how energy shocks propagate into inflation – directly and through second-round effects. The appropriate monetary policy reaction depends on the persistence of the inflationary pressures as well as the magnitude of the growth impact, and it differs across economies. Uncertainty about these effects further complicates the policy challenge. |
| Date: | 2026–08–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisblt:131 |
| By: | Yves Crozet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Les effets externes constituent pour les économistes un échec du marché. Pour y remédier ils s'inspirent paradoxalement du modèle d'intelligibilité qu'est le marché pour proposer différentes formes d'internalisation des effets externes et plus particulièrement des coûts externes. Le secteur des transports, sur lequel est centrée cette note, est particulièrement concerné par la question des coûts externes à travers les problèmes liés aux accidents, au bruit, à la pollution et aux émissions de gaz à effet de serre. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05604088 |
| By: | Schöffel, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This dissertation examines the relationship between firms’ carbon emission intensity and financial characteristics of corporate bonds in secondary markets. In particular, the dissertation analyses the effect of carbon intensity on yield spread risk premia relative to risk-free bonds, as well as on various measures of bond liquidity. While theory suggests a positive link between carbon emissions and firm-level risk, implying higher capital costs and reduced trading activity, the empirical evidence in the existing literature remains inconclusive. A comprehensive review of the literature and recent academic debate identifies methodological inconsistency as a key driver of these contradictory findings. The first chapter synthesizes ongoing discourse around the use of carbon data in financial research and identifies six critical methodological choices that have the potential to substantially influence research outcomes. Weighing the trade-offs associated with these alternatives, the chapter proposes a set of decision-making recommendations designed to enhance methodological consistency in future empirical work. Applying these methodological recommendations, the second chapter finds, contrary to the “carbon risk hypothesis”, that bonds issued by high-emission firms exhibit lower yield spreads compared to those from lower-emission peers. This “carbon discount” is especially pronounced among A-rated bonds and strengthens over time, while the effect diminishes and becomes statistically insignificant for BBB-rated bonds. The third chapter analyzes the relationship between firm-level carbon intensity and bond-level liquidity metrics. No persistent illiquidity premium is observed for high-emission issuers, even in bond markets increasingly shaped by sustainably investing fixed income funds. Overall, the dissertation contributes to resolving empirical inconsistencies rooted in methodological divergence and demonstrates that, when aligned with best-practice methodological standards from the literature, there is no robust evidence of negative effects of high carbon intensity on corporate bond spreads or liquidity. |
| Date: | 2026–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:160830 |
| By: | Thiha Aung; Mike Ludkovski |
| Abstract: | We propose Adaptive Refinement Bayesian Optimization for Day-Ahead and Real-Time (ARBO-DART) markets, an algorithm for BESS intraday dispatch co-optimization in which day-ahead (DA) commitment profiles are optimized against value of real-time (RT) recourse computed by a black-box stochastic control solver. In our framework, the DA price curve is taken as exogenous and RT prices evolve as a mean-reverting process around it. The RT recourse layer performs dynamic closed-loop control while accounting for the piecewise-linear state-of-charge dynamics and the DA-driven feasible control set. By wrapping Bayesian Optimization (BO) around the RT solver, ARBO-DART jointly optimizes DA commitments and dynamic RT flexibility without requiring analytic gradients, closed-form value functions, or finite-scenario approximations. To overcome the curse of dimensionality in fixed-resolution DA profiles, ARBO-DART starts from a coarse partition of DA commitments and progressively refines charge and discharge blocks where additional temporal resolution is most needed, as judged by the corresponding RT policy. Numerical experiments across realistic DA price curves reveal the effectiveness of ARBO-DART in recovering economically meaningful DA bidding structures while being several times faster relative to fixed-resolution |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.00911 |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | At Baku in 2024, climate negotiators fixed a new collective goal: $300 billion a year by 2035 for climate action in developing countries. Climate finance — the public and private flows developed countries mobilize to help developing countries cut emissions and adapt — is the magnitude that goal purports to measure, though no fund holds it and no counting method commands assent. Climate finance was assembled into an economic aggregate, in the lineage of GDP, through three ingredients that met between 2007 and 2014: the Copenhagen pledge supplied a political number in search of its object, the OECD's development-aid statistics supplied an accounting apparatus already standing, and economists in international organizations and development banks supplied the devices — markers, concessionality thresholds, attribution rules — that turned the two into a countable whole. A computational break-detection analysis of a multilingual corpus, blind to the calendar of the climate negotiations, corroborates this periodization. Four recurring controversies — concessional-loan valuation, Rio-marker credibility, mobilized-private-finance attribution, the aid/climate-obligation boundary — organize the field since 2015; a 2025 World Bank operation in Türkiye displays all four in one transaction. The ambiguity of these categories is not a flaw: it lets donors report mobilization and recipients audit obligation from the same number, making a distributive conflict administrable rather than resolved. |
| Abstract: | À Bakou en 2024, les négociateurs climat ont fixé un nouvel objectif collectif : 300 milliards de dollars par an d'ici 2035 pour l'action climatique dans les pays en développement. La finance climat, c'est-à-dire les flux publics et privés que les pays développés mobilisent pour aider les pays en développement à réduire leurs émissions et à s'adapter, est la grandeur que cet objectif prétend mesurer, alors qu'aucun fonds ne la détient et qu'aucune méthode de comptage ne fait consensus. La finance climat a été assemblée en agrégat économique, dans la lignée du PIB, par la rencontre de trois ingrédients entre 2007 et 2014 : l'engagement de Copenhague a fourni un nombre politique en quête de son objet, les statistiques d'aide au développement de l'OCDE ont fourni un appareil comptable déjà en place, et les économistes des organisations internationales et des banques de développement ont fourni les dispositifs (marqueurs, seuils de concessionnalité, règles d'attribution) qui ont fait des deux un tout comptable. Une analyse computationnelle de détection de ruptures sur un corpus multilingue, aveugle au calendrier des COP, corrobore cette périodisation. Quatre controverses récurrentes (valorisation des prêts concessionnels, crédibilité des marqueurs de Rio, attribution de la finance privée mobilisée, frontière entre aide et obligation climatique) organisent le champ depuis 2015 ; une opération de la Banque mondiale en Türkiye en 2025 les montre toutes les quatre dans une seule transaction. L'ambiguïté de ces catégories n'est pas un défaut : elle permet aux donateurs de déclarer une mobilisation et aux récipiendaires d'auditer une obligation à partir du même nombre, rendant un conflit distributif administrable plutôt que résolu. |
| Keywords: | climate finance, quantification, accounting categories, international organizations, organisations internationales, catégories comptables, finance climat |
| Date: | 2026–07–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-05558422 |
| By: | Muzi Chen; Difang Huang; Shouyang Wang; Xinghan Xia |
| Abstract: | Firms covered by emissions trading systems need forecasts not only to value allowances, but also to decide when to buy them. This paper asks whether European Union Allowance (EUA) prices contain short-horizon predictability that survives a forecast-origin information design and improves simulated compliance procurement. Using daily data from 2019 to 2025, we produce direct forecasts for one to five trading days ahead. All predictors are observable at the forecast origin, and calibration and model-selection rules are fixed before the final holdout. The released forecast has the lowest point-estimate RMSE at every horizon among fourteen benchmarks, with the strongest loss-difference evidence at horizons three and four. Relative to a random walk, out-of-sample R^2 rises from 1.2% at one day to 15.5% at five days. We then use the forecast path in a constrained procurement problem with execution costs, market impact, capacity limits, and tail risk; sensitivity exercises add demand uncertainty. For a fixed 100, 000-EUA order, optimized schedules lower average realized costs by 8.5 to 38.5 basis points relative to uniform execution across horizons h=2 to h=5. The gains come from reallocating purchases within a fixed window, not from reliable next-day directional timing. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.23426 |
| By: | Füchtenhans, Marc |
| Abstract: | In order to investigate the impact of economic, environmental and social factors on the industrial environment, it is important to integrate sustainability dimensions into the planning and design of intralogistics and production processes. In the context of a primarily technology-driven Industry 4.0 and a more sustainable and human-centered Industry 5.0, this dissertation examines the benefits and applications of quantitative approaches in data-driven decision-making processes. It shows how different approaches can increase adaptability, optimize the use of resources and improve working conditions in intralogistics and production processes. Sustainability is not viewed as an isolated goal, but as an integral dimension that influences economic, environmental, social, and operational decisions. By addressing operational planning and design, a holistic perspective is developed on how sustainable, human-centered principles and resilience can transform industrial systems beyond improvements. This cumulative dissertation comprises seven contributions to the scientific literature written between 2019 and 2025. Four of these contributions were published in peer-reviewed scientific journals and two contributions were published in peer-reviewed conference proceedings. In addition, one working paper is included that had not yet been published at the time the dissertation was completed. The contributions address in different ways the overarching themes of economic growth, environmental sustainability, social responsibility, as well as human-centricity and resilience, in the application areas of intralogistics and production. The seven contributions contained in this cumulative dissertation contribute to three thematic research streams. The first stream deals with smart lighting systems and their relevance for energy-efficient and flexible intralogistics environments. The second stream examines demand response programs, in particular incentive-based programs, to regulate electricity consumption in production scheduling. The third stream is dedicated to planning-related challenges in production scheduling in the context of demographic change, particularly regarding an aging workforce. Despite the heterogeneity of the three research streams in terms of objectives and methodological approaches, they are conceptually linked by the overarching principle of a sustainable, human-centric and resilient approach. The first research stream focuses on smart lighting systems in intralogistics and comprises the first three contributions. The first contribution introduces the concept and practical relevance of smart lighting systems, showing their potential to reduce energy consumption and improve worker well-being. The second contribution conducts a systematic literature review on smart lighting systems and identifies a research gap in industrial applications. It integrates scientific literature with expert knowledge based on expert workshops to formulate hypotheses for future research using the example of order picking in warehouses. Based on the findings of the second contribution, the third contribution develops a simulation model to evaluate the operational strategies of smart lighting systems in warehouse environments. The results, validated by expert workshops and a case study, demonstrate significant cost and energy savings as well as practical implications for the implementation of smart lighting systems. The second stream of research comprises contributions four to six and examines incentive-based programs and their integration into and impact on production scheduling. The fourth contribution presents a bi-objective job-shop scheduling model with variable machine speeds that aims to balance energy efficiency and scheduling performance under incentive-based programs. Based on this model, the fifth contribution develops a genetic algorithm to approximate Pareto-optimal solutions for large datasets and provides insights into the complex interactions between production flexibility and different incentive-based programs. The sixth contribution extends the analysis by investigating how changes in the production schedule induced by incentive-based programs affect downstream supply chain performance. A simulation-based approach reveals the impact on inventory policies and highlights the trade-offs between energy flexibility and supply reliability. The third stream of research comprises contribution seven and addresses demographic change in production planning, with a focus on an aging workforce. The seventh contribution presents a systematic literature review on age-appropriate production planning and identifies research gaps related to the assignment of older workers in sequential production processes. It develops a practical production planning model that incorporates worker age and experience into scheduling decisions. This contribution demonstrates how considering employee diversity can lead to more inclusive and sustainable production systems. |
| Date: | 2025–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:160804 |
| By: | Hiroyuki Yamada (Keio University) |
| Abstract: | Thermal inversions have become the standard instrument for estimating the causal effect of air pollution, underpinning at least 81 published studies of health, labor, firm, and crime outcomes. Seventy-seven percent of those studies concern China, and none concerns Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper examines whether the design can be transported to the regions where pollution research is expanding fastest. We link 120, 820 children in 26 Sub-Saharan African countries and 128, 919 in India, Bangladesh, and Nepal to 0.01° satellite PM2.5 and to ERA5 temperature profiles measured at local dawn, and we estimate a single two-stage least squares specification six times, changing only the definition of the inversion instrument. Five of the six definitions come from published practice, and the sixth is an elevation-robust variant of our own. In the African sample, we find that all six first stages are strong and correctly signed (F=57-356). However, the second stages split by instrument family. Pressure-level definitions give positive but insignificant effects on child respiratory illness, whereas surface-layer definitions, the modal implementation in the literature, give significant negative ones. Over-identification tests reject the cross-family pairings of the count and continuous instruments (p |
| Keywords: | thermal inversion, instrumental variables, air pollution, child health, external validity, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia |
| JEL: | Q53 I15 O13 C26 |
| Date: | 2026–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2026-018 |
| By: | Masias, Ian; Minten, Bart; Goeb, Joseph; Htar, May Thet; Aung, Nilar |
| Abstract: | The Iran War has driven up fuel and fertilizer prices in Myanmar and created the risk of shortages in some parts of the country. At the end of June, diesel prices were 34 percent higher and petrol prices 57 percent higher than at the end of February, while reference prices for urea in mid- and late June were 49 and 28 percent higher, respectively, than last monsoon season. Myanmar’s rice value chain depends heavily on fertilizer for paddy production and on fuel for land preparation, irrigation, harvesting, transport, and processing. Alongside an expected El Niño, these higher costs of fuel and fertilizer are likely to lower yields and rice production in the 2026 monsoon season. Higher costs are likely to reach consumers, raising the price of rice, the country's main staple, and worsening food security at a time of already high humanitarian need. Recommended Actions: Ease forex restrictions and import licensing on fertilizer imports, which raise input prices above those of regional competitors. Promote more efficient use of chemical fertilizer, since prices are likely to stay elevated even after the crisis eases. Support the local production of organic fertilizer and educate farmers on its effective use, to reduce reliance on imported chemical fertilizer. Expand alternative and more reliable energy sources, addressing a constraint that predates the shock. Expand alternative and more reliable energy sources, addressing a constraint that predates the shock. |
| Keywords: | inflation; fuels; fertilizer industry; prices; agricultural value chains; rice; Myanmar; Asia; South-eastern Asia |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:othbrf:183599 |
| By: | Qu, Chunzi (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Bjørndal, Mette (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | District heating (DH) is important for Nordic decarbonization and power-heat coordination, but its development differs markedly across the region, with Norway showing much lower DH penetration than Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. The analysis combines institutional comparison, a review of empirical pricing and modeling studies, and two stylized numerical case studies, to identify transferable lessons and suitable analytical tools for Norwegian policy reform aimed at supporting DH expansion. The results show that the main weakness of Norway’s current electricity-indexed maximum-price rule lies not merely in the level of the cap, but in the instability of the benchmark and its weak alignment with the underlying cost structure and system value of DH. Greater electricity-price volatility can further amplify the mismatch between the electricity-linked cap and DH cost recovery, increasing downside revenue risk for DH companies. The representative-customer comparison shows that the current Norwegian regime exposes customers more directly to the market-linked price variation, while also making the tariff relatively more favorable for low-utilization customers, thereby increasing cost-recovery risks for DH companies. The Norwegian policy-counterfactual analysis shows that if Norway wishes to retain a maximum-price rule while revising its cap-setting method, using the cost of alternative heating technologies as a hard cap may be insufficient to ensure cost recovery under the Oslo calibration, whereas a Danish cost-recovery benchmark provides a more robust basis for long-run DH viability. Finally, the modeling review highlights the need for integrated, multi-model evaluation strategies to support evidence-based DH regulatory reform in Norway and other highly electrified energy systems. |
| Keywords: | District heating; Price regulation; Tariff design; Power-heat coordination; Energy system modeling; Nordic countries |
| JEL: | Q20 Q30 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2026_009 |
| By: | Robinson, Anya; Parés Olguín, Francisco; Hwang, Roland; Ramji, Aditya |
| Abstract: | This brief is available in English at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/14d9497 v |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt38m139fq |
| By: | Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig (WIFO); Angela Köppl; Stefan Schleicher (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | Decarbonising the building sector is critical to achieving climate neutrality in Europe, yet progress remains constrained by low renovation rates, continued reliance on fossil-based heating, fragmented governance, and persistent social and financial barriers. This paper examines which policy instruments and governance approaches are considered effective for building decarbonisation in the European Union and how these are perceived by stakeholders in Austria. It combines a structured literature review of recent research on EU and Austrian building decarbonisation with qualitative evidence from semi-structured interviews and a focus group involving stakeholders from public administration, housing, construction, civil society, and academia. The findings show that building decarbonisation depends on coherent policy mixes rather than isolated interventions. Effective approaches require the alignment of regulatory standards, financial support, advisory structures, infrastructure planning, and social protection mechanisms in order to accelerate deep renovation and heating system transformation. Across the literature and stakeholder evidence, the main barriers include high upfront costs, split incentives in rental housing, legal constraints in tenancy and condominium law, administrative fragmentation, and regulatory instability. In Austria, these barriers are compounded by a federal governance structure that generates variation across provinces and weakens policy coherence. The paper argues that building decarbonisation in Austria is primarily a governance and implementation challenge. Accelerating the transition therefore requires a stronger focus on the existing building stock, a reform of housing-related legal frameworks, improved coordination across governance levels, more predictable policy signals, strengthened implementation sup-port, and explicit attention to affordability and social justice. |
| Keywords: | Building decarbonisation, Heat transition, Policy instruments, Multi-level governance, Housing policy, Austria |
| Date: | 2026–08–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2026:i:733 |
| By: | Badino, Nicolò (Department of Economics, University of Genova); Cardullo, Gabriele (University of Genova); Sechi, Agnese (Department of Economics, University of Genova) |
| Abstract: | How much a household suffers from inflation depends on what it consumes. We show that this simple observation links household expenditure behavior to inflation inequality, welfare losses, and poverty. Building on a non-homothetic CES demand system, we derive household-specific exact cost-of-living indexes and apply them to the 2022 European energy crisis in Spain and Italy. Using household expenditure microdata, we estimate non-homothetic preferences and show that the same expenditure patterns governing Engel curves also determine households' welfare sensitivity to inflation. Consequently, poorer households face substantially larger welfare losses than would be implied by inflation differentials alone, while Italian households exhibit systematically greater welfare sensitivity than comparable Spanish households. Under an anchored poverty line, a common price deflator conceals 1.6 million newly poor in Spain, while in Italy it is nearly innocuous, because the shock is already large enough to push the same households below the line. Our results caution against relying on a single representative-agent price index to assess the distributional consequences of large relative-price shocks. |
| Keywords: | household consumption, non-homothetic preferences, inflation inequality, cost-of-living indexes, welfare, poverty measurement |
| JEL: | D12 E31 I32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18849 |
| By: | Robinson, Anya; Parés Olguín, Francisco; Hwang, Roland; Ramji, Aditya |
| Abstract: | This report is available in English at: https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9f60f7g b |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1xz827td |
| By: | Federico Aluigi; Lucia Caramellino; Paolo Pigato; Edoardo Scrima |
| Abstract: | The Gasoil options market is illiquid, making it difficult to construct its implied volatility surface directly. However, it is closely linked to the highly liquid Brent options market. In this paper, we jointly model Brent and Gasoil futures prices through a correlated Bachelier local volatility model: the Brent factor is described by a normal mixture diffusion model, while the Gasoil-Brent spot volatility spread is estimated using a data-driven procedure that identifies clusters of historical crack-spread levels and Gasoil-Brent volatility spreads. The resulting bivariate model allows us to compute an implied volatility correction that maps Brent implied volatilities to Gasoil implied volatilities without using illiquid Gasoil option prices as inputs. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the resulting implied volatilities closely match observed Gasoil implied volatilities when benchmarked against more direct approaches. These results suggest that the proposed framework is well suited for modeling refined products and pricing the corresponding financial derivatives. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.19030 |
| By: | Peter Boswijk (University of Amsterdam); Cees Diks (University of Amsterdam); Simon Trimborn (University of Amsterdam); Matteo Valle (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to determine from market expectations how firms are affected by risks arising from environmental regulation. We use a text-based measure of environmental regulatory stringency derived from U.S. EPA legal documents and industry-level relevance scores to capture time-varying regulatory stringency exposure. We find that environmental regulatory stringency carries a positive and statistically significant return compensation, especially for firms with high cash holdings. For firms with low cash holdings, the effect is highly volatile, showing investors are uncertain about a firm's future when faced with stricter regulation. Firms’ environmental profiles further matter, as high-emission firms' returns are negatively affected when regulatory stringency increases. Because regulatory text is released infrequently, challenging real-time risk analysis, we utilise our studies insights to derive a high-frequency, market-expectation capturing Environmental Regulatory Risk Index (ERRI). We show that ERRI captures shifts in investors’ expectations of environmental regulatory stringency and how ERRI reacts during environmental policy and political developments. |
| Date: | 2026–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260044 |
| By: | chandarwal, Abhay kumar |
| Abstract: | India's Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) Programme has advanced from a marginal 1.14–1.53 per cent blending rate in 2013–14 to the statutory 20 per cent (E20) target by Ethanol Supply Year (ESY) 2025–26, five years ahead of the original 2030 deadline set under the National Policy on Biofuels, 2018. This rapid scale-up has been accompanied by an equally rapid structural shift in feedstock composition: official data show the share of grain-based ethanol (maize, rice, and damaged food grain) rising from roughly 9 per cent of total procurement in ESY 2020–21 to nearly 60 per cent by early ESY 2024–25, with industry-association estimates placing maize's individual share alone at approximately 50 per cent by ESY 2024–25, up from 6.2 per cent two years earlier. This paper examines the resulting energy-security-versus-food-inflation trade-off using officially reported and peer-reviewed data. It synthesises the National Policy on Biofuels (2018, amended 2022), the NITI Aayog Roadmap for Ethanol Blending in India 2020–25, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas (MoPNG) blending statistics, USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) maize market data, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Ministry of Finance inflation reporting, and a 2026 peer-reviewed partial-equilibrium modelling study (published in PLOS One by researchers at the Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and the FABLE Consortium). The analysis finds credible evidence of crop-substitution pressure — a 14.7 per cent year-on-year decline in maize production coinciding with record consumption, an 84 per cent collapse in maize exports, and open-market maize prices exceeding the government's minimum support price by approximately 11 per cent in April 2024 — alongside documented cumulative energy-security gains of over ₹1.36–1.59 lakh crore in foreign exchange savings. However, the paper finds that a direct, India-specific econometric (VAR/Granger) estimate of ethanol-to-food-price transmission does not yet exist in the peer-reviewed literature; this study is accordingly framed as a literature- and data-grounded empirical synthesis rather than primary econometric estimation, and it explicitly flags this gap as a priority for future research. Policy recommendations centre on feedstock diversification toward 2G/cellulosic ethanol, protection of grain buffer stocks, and integration of food-price monitoring into the biofuel roadmap. |
| Date: | 2026–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:svekc_v1 |
| By: | Rodriguez, Valentina Rita |
| Abstract: | El trabajo analiza los determinantes de la inversión en eficiencia energética (EE) en 54 empresas industriales del Partido de General Pueyrredon, relevadas en 2021 en el marco del programa "PROCER Fortalecimiento Institucional". El interés se vincula con el peso del sector energía en las emisiones de GEI de Argentina y el rol de la industria como fuerte demandante de energía en un contexto de transición hacia matrices productivas más sostenibles. El objetivo del trabajo es analizar si existen distintos perfiles de empresas de acuerdo con su comportamiento inversor en eficiencia energética entre las empresas industriales del Partido de General Pueyrredon. Metodológicamente se combinan análisis descriptivos univariados y bivariados con Análisis de Correspondencias Múltiples (ACM). Los resultados indican que hay tres perfiles de empresas según su comportamiento inversor y su grado de institucionalización de la gestión energética, y muestra que el conocimiento de la normativa se asocia positivamente con la inversión en EE. En conjunto, los hallazgos apuntan a la necesidad de políticas diferenciadas por tipo de firma que articulen señales de precios, financiamiento específico, asistencia técnica y difusión normativa para reducir la brecha de eficiencia energética en el entramado industrial local. |
| Keywords: | Eficiencia Energética; Empresas Industriales; Análisis de Correspondencia; Partido de General Pueyrredon; |
| Date: | 2026–06–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:4585 |
| By: | Riggs, William (University of San Francisco) |
| Abstract: | A growing body of literature argues that autonomous vehicles (AVs) will substantially increase vehicle miles traveled (VMT), contributing to congestion, induced demand, and environmental externalities. Recent work by Naz and Mattingly (2026) synthesizes 25 studies and concludes that AV deployment is associated with an average increase in VMT across both shared and non-shared AV scenarios. However, the underlying literature remains dominated by simulation-based approaches, synthetic demand modeling, and legacy travel survey data collected prior to widespread rideshare adoption and operational AV deployment. This paper critically reassesses the methodological foundations of the AV–VMT literature through a structured inventory and classification of the studies included in Naz and Mattingly’s meta-analysis. The analysis identifies recurring endogenous mechanisms embedded within the literature, including reductions in generalized travel cost, travel burden, and value of travel time (VOTT), which structurally privilege AV adoption and systematically inflate projected VMT outcomes. At the same time, few studies incorporate observed AV rider behavior, empirical occupancy rates, operational pricing dynamics, or adaptive fleet learning. Drawing on emerging evidence from operational AV systems, including Waymo fleet data, shows that he share of empty VMT declined from ~63% to ~44% since 2023 for real world deployments while passenger serving VMT increased from 37% to 56%. This underscores an argument that AVs should be understood not as static hypothetical vehicles, but as adaptive operational mobility systems embedded within platform, pricing, and fleet management constraints. The paper concludes by proposing a minimum operational data standard for future AV–VMT research and argues that the field must transition from hypothetical scenario modeling toward empirically grounded operational evaluation. |
| Date: | 2026–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hqmxc_v1 |
| By: | Kollar, Justin |
| Abstract: | Beneath the dramatic expansion of AI computing and digital systems across the world, data centers and energy systems are being constructed within inherited land and property institutions. Because of this, the consequences of this buildout—including resource strain and environmental and health impacts—are unevenly distributed, particularly in rural areas like Appalachia long structured by concentrated land ownership and extractive power relations. Recent discourse has focused on the implications of AI and digital systems for governance, as well as the immense resource demands of computing infrastructure. This article seeks to link these concerns by examining the unequal power relations involved in the production of computing infrastructure, including “powered land, ” through which non-tech entities assemble land and entitlements as an asset for sale or rent to operators and AI labs. Within the historically extractive landscape of West Virginia, I examine the mechanisms of infrastructural enclosure that enable and sustain this asset against local resistance, including the passage of HB 2014 and HB 2002, which aim to remove local land-use authority, divert fiscal resources, and protect consequential information about proposed projects. A critical component of this process is asymmetric legibility, through which project details are made coherent for those within the development network but intentionally fragmented and obscured for affected communities. Infrastructural enclosure extends accumulation by dispossession beyond the appropriation of land and resources to encompass the historically aligned regimes that legitimize dispossession and erode democracy and collective place identity. |
| Date: | 2026–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:xkhgc_v1 |
| By: | Peter Levell; Lars Nesheim; Gautam Vyas |
| Abstract: | We estimate average equivalised consumption measures across 370 local authority districts in Great Britain, using small-area estimation methods that combine information from a household budget survey, a much larger survey of local demographics and employment, and area-level information on bank account outflows and energy consumption. We show that including bank account data substantially improves our estimates, showing that these and other financial footprints data can play an important role in measuring local consumption and hence living standards. We also compare consumption measures that correspond to welfare under different assumptions about mobility and the capitalisation of local amenities into house prices, as well as traditional local income measures, and show that the rankings of local authorities are sensitive to the choice of measure. |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:26/847 |
| By: | José Morales-Arilla (Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Miguel Angel Santos (Escuela de Gobierno y Transformación Pública, Tecnológico de Monterrey); Zinedine Partipilo Cornielles (Department of Economics, Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | El artículo examina si las sanciones de Estados Unidos desde 2017 agravaron el colapso económico y la emigración venezolana a través del sector petrolero. Con un diseño de diferencias en diferencias compara municipios petroleros y no petroleros usando luces nocturnas, ventas de alimentos, migración y participación electoral. No encuentra deterioro ni emigración desproporcionados en zonas petroleras, cuestionando que las sanciones fueran el principal motor de la crisis. |
| Keywords: | sanciones económicas, migración, producción petrolera, crisis económica, Venezuela. |
| JEL: | F51 F22 O54 Q43 D72 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gnt:wpaper:36 |
| By: | Berger, Thor; Ostermeyer, Vinzent |
| Abstract: | This paper documents how the advent of the limited liability corporation contributed to the diffusion of steam technology during Sweden’s industrialization. Using longitudinal establishment-level data, we show that incorporation sharply raised the probability that industrial establishments adopted steam. Incorporation facilitated technology adoption partly by enabling smaller establishments to expand to a greater scale where the use of steam became feasible. These results highlight that low barriers to incorporation may be an important lever to facilitate the diffusion of new technologies. |
| Keywords: | Industrialization; Technology adoption; Steam engine |
| JEL: | O14 O33 D22 L25 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19530 |