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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Edenhofer, Ottmar; Franks, Max; Gruner, Friedemann; Kalkuhl, Matthias; Lessmann, Kai |
| Abstract: | Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is becoming an emerging topic in climate policy. We review the nascent economic literature on the governance of CDR and discuss policy design and institutions. We first assess the role of CDR in climate policy portfolios that include abatement and adaptation. Cost saving technological progress could make CDR a game changer in climate pol- icy: CDR creates new sectoral, intertemporal and international flexibilities, which reduce overall costs and allow returning to a temperature target after temporary overshooting. Moreover, carbon removal can reduce the problem of international cooperation due to substantially lower supply-side leakage via fossil fuel markets. A key challenge lies in its governance and incentive structure that is complicated by non-permanence of carbon storage and default risks of the firms committed to future CDR. For CDR governance, we survey approaches that incentivize removals by price instruments or include CDR in (modified) emissions trading schemes. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Dioxide Removal; Climate policy; Carbon pricing; Carbon storage; Emission trading |
| JEL: | H23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19835 |
| By: | Bøler, Esther Ann; Holtsmark, Katinka; Ulltveit-Moe, Karen Helene |
| Abstract: | We analyze how a negative shock to the profitability of oil-extracting firms may lead to a shift from dirty to clean R&D along the supply chain. First, we develop a theoretical framework, showing that adjustment costs in R&D give firms in the fossil energy supply chain an additional incentive to shift R&D activity towards clean innovation as a consequence of a negative shock. Next, we leverage the 2014 oil price drop to empirically investigate the impact of reduced profitability in the fossil energy supply chain on clean R&D. We propose a novel method to identify firms’ exposure to the shock. In line with the predictions from the model, we find that more exposed firms increased their clean R&D more than other firms. Our findings imply that carbon pricing will nduce clean innovation not only by increasing demand for clean technologies, but also by lowering profitability in the fossil energy supply chain. |
| Keywords: | Clean Innovation; Global supply chains; Carbon pricing |
| JEL: | F18 O31 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19796 |
| By: | Tolkki, Ville; Junttila, Juha; Sahlström, Petri |
| Abstract: | The paper studies how climate policy affects the brown risk premium in bank lending, distinguishing between Scope 1 (direct) and Scope 2 (energy-related) emissions using loanlevel data on new variable-rate corporate loans from 2019-2024 matched with constructed measures of Scope 1 and Scope 2 emission intensity. Exploiting the Finnish Climate Act of 2022, which set a binding 2035 net-zero target, we show that Scope 1 emissions are priced throughout the sample, indicating pre-existing risk pricing, while Scope 2 emissions are priced mainly after the policy, suggesting an expansion of priced transition risks. We further isolate periods of acute energy market stress and find that banks temporarily deprioritize carbon risk during energy crisis months. Estimated carbon premia are economically meaningful, but we do not find strong evidence that pricing differs systematically between large and small firms. |
| Keywords: | Banking, corporate loan pricing, climate policy |
| JEL: | G21 G32 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofrdp:342401 |
| By: | Selvaraju, Sangeeth; Kumar, Parth |
| Abstract: | Few industrial materials are as crucial to the low-carbon transition in India as aluminium, which is essential in the manufacture of solar panels, and electric vehicle battery housings and transmission cables. But producing primary aluminium creates emissions of around 18–24 tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (tCO₂e) in India, making it one of the most emission-intensive industrial processes in the world. The Indian Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) aims to support the country’s climate commitments with a focus on decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors, including aluminium. This policy brief explores the reasons for the high emissions intensity of Indian aluminium, and the role of the CCTS in decarbonising the sector. It makes recommendations for ensuring that the CCTS delivers meaningful decarbonisation. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140335 |
| By: | Halkos, George; Aslanidis, Panagiotis-Stavros |
| Abstract: | Energy poverty has evolved from a predominantly affordability-based concern into a multidimensional policy challenge encompassing (i) income, (ii) housing conditions, (iii) energy efficiency, (iv) access to essential energy services, and (v) social vulnerability. This report examines the evolving European Union framework for addressing energy poverty and assesses its implications for Greece. It conceptualizes EU policy through three interconnected pillars: prevention, protection, and structural reform, which encompass social and climate finance, consumer protection schemes, incentives for renovation, energy efficiency standards, and participation in renewable and community energy. Particular attention is given to Greece’s emerging national architecture, including the updated Energy Poverty Action Plan and the APOLLON programme, which signals a shift from recurrent energy-bill support toward renewable-based structural interventions. The report identifies remaining gaps concerning protection from energy disconnection, the influence of the Social Climate Fund deployment, and outcome-based monitoring; hence, it proposes an integrated pathway for enabling vulnerable households to sustainably exit energy poverty. |
| Keywords: | Energy justice; Climate Social Fund; Just Energy Transition; Energy vulnerability; Greece; European Union. |
| JEL: | D63 I32 Q40 Q43 Q48 Q50 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–08–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:130417 |
| By: | José Alves; João Estevão |
| Abstract: | Europe’s energy geopolitics is usually told as a story of changing suppliers – Russian gas yesterday, Chinese clean technology tomorrow. Electrification adds a second, more local geopolitics, defined by who sits at the centre of the grid, who runs into bottlenecks, and who can call on flexibility when stress hits. Using public data alone, we build a bidding-zone-month panel covering 41 European zones over 2019-2025 and test six pre-stated hypotheses about how this internal layer redistributes price volatility, negative-price exposure, net imports, and cross-border price gaps. Three findings survive our identification checks. More cross-zonal capacity lowers net imports in average months, confirmed quasi-experimentally around the NordLink and Viking Link HVDC commissionings. Higher renewable shares raise within-month price volatility once network position is held fixed – about 1.8 EUR/MWh per ten percentage points of renewable share – concentrated in the network-central half of the panel. And the 2022 gas crisis widened the gap between EU-27 and non-EU European zones: integration transmitted the shock into the most-connected jurisdictions instead of dampening it. The flexibility-moderation prediction fails. Energy sovereignty in an electrified Europe is best understood as advantageous positioning within regional infrastructure, not separation from it; integration is double-edged. |
| Keywords: | electricity interdependence, energy transition, strategic vulnerability, congestion, Europe, energy security |
| JEL: | C33 D85 F52 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12836 |
| By: | Konrad Adler; Oliver Rehbein; Matthias Reiner; Jing Zeng |
| Abstract: | We propose measuring firms’ exposure to climate risk via the market. We build a theoretical foundation and construct empirical market-based greenness measures based on abnormal stock returns around UN climate conferences. Our measures cover around 36, 000 international firms, tenfold the existing measures. Market-based greenness is associated with lower present and future carbon emissions, and provides explanatory power distinct from existing climate risk measures. Market-based green firms are more likely to file green patents, have lower stock price volatility, and are financially more robust. At the country level, market-based greenness correlates with lower emission intensity and larger shares of renewable energy. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, greenness, green firms, climate risk |
| JEL: | G14 G32 G38 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_768 |
| By: | Shiwang, Jinyu; Peng, Wei; Bistline, John E.; Farbes, Jamil; Huang, Xinyuan; Iyer, Gokul; Jenkins, Jesse; Knipping, Eladio; Mailloux, Nicholas; Mayfield, Erin |
| Abstract: | Transitioning to a net-zero emissions economy can provide air quality and health benefits. Yet it is still unclear how different low-carbon energy strategies influence the overall benefits and their distribution. Based on a multi-model analysis using three leading energy models for the U.S. (GCAM-USA, US-REGEN, and REPEAT), we demonstrate that a net-zero transition from now to 2050 yields robust nationwide reductions in ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and associated mortality. However, the health co-benefits achieved in the net-zero scenarios relative to business-as-usual baselines vary substantially across models and regions. These differences largely result from how mitigation efforts are allocated across sectors, especially the use of carbon dioxide removal technologies, which can relocate residual emissions across regions and, in some cases, increase local pollution levels. As pollution from non-energy activities such as wildfires continues to grow, minimizing energy-related emissions is critical to counteract potential increases in other sectors. |
| Date: | 2026–05–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:ecsarx:fcgw6_v1 |
| By: | Heid, Pascal; Remmy, Kevin; Reynaert, Mathias |
| Abstract: | The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) shifts the complementary market for passenger transport from oil to electricity. We develop and estimate a joint equilibrium model linking the German vehicle and electricity markets, emphasizing the timing of EV charging as generation costs and emissions vary intraday. A 10% EV stock raises wholesale electricity prices by about 2%, creating a sizable pecuniary externality. Time-varying tariffs shift charging to cheaper hours and spur adoption, only partially alleviating the aggregate price pressure. Time-varying tariffs sustain EV adoption when the electricity market faces higher demand or carbon costs. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicles |
| JEL: | L5 L6 L9 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19631 |
| By: | Luis E. Gonzales (Central Bank of Chile); Koichiro Ito (University of Chicago and NBER); Mar Reguant (IAE-CSIC, Northwestern, CEPR, and NBER) |
| Abstract: | Electricity reliability is a central challenge for the energy transition, as growing energy demand, renewable energy integration, and natural disasters increase the risk of large-scale blackouts. However, the economic impacts of large-scale blackouts remain largely unknown. Combining electricity market data with high-frequency economic transaction data from Chile, we find that economic activity declined by 35 percent on the nationwide blackout day, but half of this loss was recovered on subsequent days, highlighting the importance of intertemporal substitution. Exploiting spatial variation in blackout severity, we show that accounting for endogenous recovery is critical when estimating the marginal value of lost load. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-53 |
| By: | Feiyu Cai; Jing Qiu; Yi Yang; Chenxi Zhang; Xinlei Wang; Baichuan Liu; Junhua Zhao |
| Abstract: | As a major contributor to carbon emissions, the decarbonization of power systems has garnered significant societal attention. Nodal carbon intensity (NCI), a critical factor in carbon-oriented demand response, has traditionally been determined through ex-post calculations. However, this ex-post approach introduces latency in low-carbon dispatch. To address this, this paper presents a proactive ex-ante spatial-temporal carbon response framework. At its core, we develop a novel deep learning-based hierarchical design, enhanced by a dual-stage attention mechanism and a large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent cooperation system, to accurately forecast day-ahead NCI. This design effectively mitigates the impact of renewable energy uncertainty and enhances predictive resilience. On the demand side, the framework proposes a spatial-temporal carbon scheduling model that integrates geographically dispatchable loads (GDLs), including mobile energy storage systems (MESSs) and distributed data centers (DDCs). Leveraging high-accuracy day-ahead NCI predictions, the framework can effectively reduce system emissions by quickly responding to carbon intensity fluctuations. The proposed framework is tested on the modified IEEE 33-bus system. According to the simulation results, the impacts of proposed framework on dispatching latency and emission outcomes are analyzed. The results demonstrate that under a one-hour reduction in carbon scheduling latency, the proposed model and methodology can achieve over 30% emission reduction. This research breaks through the limitations of passive carbon accounting, advancing toward proactive carbon management. It offers an intelligent solution that accelerates the transition to cleaner power systems while directly supporting sustainable production goals. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.26560 |
| By: | Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline; Michel Moreaux |
| Abstract: | We study the optimal use of energy from carbon emissions in an economy drawing useful energy from coal, a standard renewable, and methanol synthesised by combining captured CO2 with an otherwise inexploitable non-standard renewable, subject to a ceiling on atmospheric carbon. Captured CO2 carries a dual shadow value - atmospheric relief and productive feedstock - and we show that a credible ceiling is necessary and sufficient to activate the non-standard renewable: the ceiling, not any output subsidy, prices the feedstock that makes synthesis competitive. The optimal sequence departs from least-cost-first ordering, with coal and methanol used concurrently, and the pre-ceiling energy price may follow a U-shaped path driven by a rising shadow value rather than falling costs. A uniform Pigouvian carbon tax does not decentralise the optimum; a supplementary storage subsidy is required, and the net capture instrument is a subsidy or tax according to whether emission reduction dominates the coal rebound. |
| Keywords: | global warming, carbon capture and use, synthetic fuels, non-renewable resources, renewable resources |
| JEL: | Q30 Q35 Q42 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12860 |
| By: | Bauer, Michael; Huber, Daniel; Offner, Eric; Renkel, Marlene; Wilms, Ole |
| Abstract: | We identify corporate commitments for reductions of greenhouse gas emissions--green pledges--from news articles using a large language model. About 8% of publicly traded U.S. companies have made green pledges, and these companies tend to be larger and browner than those without pledges. Announcements of green pledges significantly and persistently raise stock prices, consistent with reductions in the carbon premium. Firms that make green pledges subsequently reduce their CO2 emissions. Our evidence suggests that green pledges are credible, have material new information for investors, and can reduce perceived transition risk. |
| JEL: | G14 G32 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19788 |
| By: | Moench, Emanuel; Soofi Siavash, Soroosh |
| Abstract: | We use restrictions derived from frontier models of directed technical change to identify an energy-saving technology shock in a Bayesian structural VAR of the U.S. economy. This shock is associated with a persistent reduction of the carbon intensity of output. It also leads to a delayed but strong increase of GDP which gives rise to substantial additional fossil fuel consumption and new emissions. As a result, per capita emissions fully rebound after an initial decline. These effects can largely be attributed to a substitution of fossil fuel end-use by electricity, much of which has historically been generated using fossil fuels. |
| Keywords: | Energy-saving technology shocks; Carbon emissions; Structural vector autoregressions |
| JEL: | C32 O47 Q43 Q55 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19656 |
| By: | Pástor, Luboš; Stambaugh, Robert F.; Taylor, Lucian |
| Abstract: | We quantify the U.S. corporate sector's future carbon damages by computing its "carbon burden"---the present value of social costs of its future carbon emissions. Our baseline estimate of the carbon burden is 131% of total corporate equity value. Even with indirect emissions excluded, 13% of firms have carbon burdens exceeding their market capitalizations. The 30 largest emitters account for all the decarbonization of U.S. corporations predicted by 2050. Predicted emission reductions, and even firms' targets, fall short of the Paris Agreement. Carbon burden is priced: firms with higher burdens have higher costs of capital, even controlling for past emissions. |
| Keywords: | Externality |
| JEL: | D62 G30 G38 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19668 |
| By: | ~, Imelda; Abatayo, Anna Lou; Resusodarmo, Budy |
| Abstract: | The timing of payment can enhance salience, making customers more price-responsive when paying before consumption rather than after. This study examines Indonesia's nationwide switch to prepaid electricity metering, impacting over 40 million households. We find that prepaid metering users are twice as price-elastic as postpaid users. We also find a positive willingness to pay for prepaid metering, suggesting consumer welfare gains. As prices rise, prepaid metering reduces excess burden by 1.5% and CO2 emissions by nearly 6%. These findings suggest prepaid meters can support climate policy goals by promoting energy conservation without imposing significant burdens on consumers. |
| Keywords: | prepayment |
| JEL: | Q41 Q48 I30 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19778 |
| By: | Rausch, Sebastian; Straubinger, Anna |
| Abstract: | We study the design of climate policy for hard-to-abate sectors, focusing on global aviation. We build a spatial equilibrium model that links ticket booking data, the global airline network, and climateregulaairlines' choices in imperfectly competitive air transport markets. We find that sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) quotas outperform carbon pricing, delivering equal emissions cuts at 46-66% of the welfare cost. Ignoring market structure understates the cost of price-based Pigouvian instruments when fuel-capital substitution is limited. SAF quotas are more robust to regulatory scope, cause less carbon leakage, and - when layered with existing carbon pricing - increase abatement while lowering welfare cost. Relying on carbon offsets risks locking in fossil jet fuel, whereas cost-effective in-secto abatement hinges on substantial SAF uptake. |
| JEL: | Q58 H23 L93 R48 C63 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:341978 |
| By: | Park, Eunseong; Rausch, Sebastian; Karplus, Valerie J. |
| Abstract: | Border carbon adjustments (BCAs) are intended to limit carbon leakage while protecting domestic industry, but governments differ over whether border charges should price total embodied emissions or only emissions above an intensity benchmark. We study this design choice in a plant-level general equilibrium model of the global steel industry with heterogeneous technologies and vertical supply chains. A rate-based BCA is equivalent to an emissions charge combined with an implicit output sub-sidy. It therefore weakens the carbon-price signal, encourages reshuffling of cleaner output toward the regulated market, and can induce leakage through underpriced carbon-intensive intermediates. In an EU-style setting with domestic carbon pricing, the rate-based design transmits only 36% of the mass-based border price needed to achieve the same global emissions reduction and yields larger welfare losses. In a US-style setting without a domestic carbon-price anchor, it mainly shifts rents toward domestic downstream industries rather than inducing abatement abroad. |
| Keywords: | border carbon adjustments, carbon leakage, climate policy, steel industry, general equilibrium, vertical supply chains, emission intensity benchmarks |
| JEL: | F18 Q58 H23 L61 C63 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:341977 |
| By: | Merk, Christine; Nordø, Åsta Dyrnes; Andersen, Gisle |
| Abstract: | * Citizens across five North Sea countries (Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, the UK; N = 9, 750) consistently rate cross-border electricity and CCS infrastructure projects more negatively than identical domestic projects, a robust "trade penalty". * The direction of opposition depends on the good being traded: for electricity, exporting attracts the strongest resistance; for CO2 storage, it is importing. Electricity is perceived as a valuable national resource, CO2 as foreign waste. * The trade penalty is not driven by fears of import dependence: respondents who value energy independence object most strongly to electricity exports, not imports. The underlying concern is national control over resources, not supply security. * Neither climate concern nor general support for international cooperation overrides the preference for domestic solutions. Citizens who see decarbonization as a national responsibility (88 percent of respondents) show the strongest trade penalty. * Expectations of concrete economic benefits, such as jobs or lower energy prices, improve acceptance of cross-border projects. This points to a communication lever that climate framing alone does not offer. * Policymakers should foreground domestic benefits, make the costs of purely national solutions visible, establish transparent rules for sharing costs and benefits across countries, and calibrate communication to each technology. |
| Keywords: | Cross-border infrastructure, Public acceptance, Carbon capture and storage (CCS), Electricity grid integration, Resource nationalism, EU climate policy, Grenzüberschreitende Infrastruktur, öffentliche Akzeptanz, Kohlenstoffabscheidung und -speicherung (CCS), Integration in das Stromnetz, Ressourcen-Nationalismus, EU-Klimapolitik |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:342557 |
| By: | Fulvia Marotta; Giorgio Rossetto; Lennard Schlattmann |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the macroeconomic effects of green and brown government spend-ing using public procurement data, focusing on how spending composition reshapes the energy sector. Classifying around 171, 000 contracts by product codes, we con-struct a quarterly panel of green and brown procurement for ten Eurozone economies (2011–2023). We identify spending shocks using the institutional timing of contract award announcements, which is plausibly orthogonal to the business cycle, and es-timate impulse responses with panel local projections. Green and brown procure-ment have near mirror-image effects on the energy sector: green procurement lowers energy prices, reduces energy-sector output, and cuts oil import dependence, while brown procurement raises energy prices and depresses innovation, especially green patenting. These differences extend to aggregate output: the cumulative GDP multi-plier of green procurement is about 0.7 on impact and exceeds 1 within one and two years, whereas the brown multiplier remains statistically indistinguishable from zero over the first two years. |
| Keywords: | Green public procurement; Energy transition; Fiscal multipliers |
| JEL: | E62 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:866 |
| By: | Coster, Pierre; Di Giovanni, Julian; Mejean, Isabelle |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how firms adjust input sourcing in response to climate policy. Using the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) as a natural experiment and French product-level import and production data, we show that firms increasingly shifted imports of ETS-regulated inputs to non-EU countries over the 2010s as the policy became more stringent, indicating carbon leakage. This leakage is economically significant: the share of ETS-regulated products sourced from outside the EU rose by 4.3 percentage points after the ETS was implemented. Motivated by these empirical findings, we estimate a heterogeneous firm model using pre-ETS data. Simulating the model under a €100 carbon tax reproduces observed leakage, raises domestic prices and modestly reduces French emissions. Adding a carbon tariff similar to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) reverses the leakage but further increases prices. The combined ETS+CBAM regime is seven times more effective than the ETS alone in reducing emissions. |
| JEL: | F14 F18 F64 H23 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19644 |
| By: | Broeders, Dirk; Mongelli, Francesco Paolo |
| Abstract: | The climate crisis is an urgent, human-driven systemic challenge whose impacts are unfolding through increasingly frequent and severe extreme events. Although the 2015 Paris Agreement advanced global climate governance, implementation remains insufficient to limit warming to well below 2 °C and pursue 1.5 °C. Accelerating risks, interacting crises and potential tipping points suggest that climate change could become unmanageable if current GHGs emissions trajectories persist. This paper makes three contributions. First, it examines why we are failing to act decisively, highlighting a persistent awareness gap, competing priorities and weak political incentives for ambitious climate action. Second, it draws on NGFS climate-policy scenarios, the climate policy trilemma and a precautionary approach to clarify policymaking trade-offs under uncertainty. Third, it reviews policy, financial and technological levers to accelerate a just green transition. A new climate policy paradigm is needed: a systemic, precautionary, adaptive and incentive-compatible framework that can “tilt the odds” away from irreversible climate damage, even when probabilities are poorly known. JEL Classification: D81, E61, D62, Q54 |
| Keywords: | adaptive climate policies, ambition gap, climate crisis, deep uncertainty, Paris Agreement, tipping points |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263261 |
| By: | Bettarelli, Luca; Furceri, Davide; Loungani, Prakash; Ostry, Jonathan D.; Pisano, Loredana |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we first test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, using a large sample of approximately 190 advanced and developing countries, over a period of 34 years (1989-2022). We find that (CO2) emissions respond positively to increasing income per-capita, up to a turning point of approximately US$25, 000. In a departure from the previous literature, we allow the relationship between economic development and emissions to depend on the stringency of environmental regulation. Our results indicate that environmental policies—and particularly market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and emission trading systems—make the EKC lower and flatter. These results are robust to several sensitivity checks, and to the use of regional (rather than global) data. Overall, our results have important policy implications, as they identify economic development as a pathway to environmental improvements. Moreover, we show that environmental policies are an essential ingredient to achieve decoupling of emissions and economic output over the longer term. |
| Keywords: | Environmental kuznets curve; Climate change policies; Decoupling; Carbon tax |
| JEL: | C33 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19900 |
| By: | Seabron Adamson; Michael G Pollitt |
| Keywords: | Locational marginal pricing (LMP), investment, PJM, trading hubs, logistical regression |
| JEL: | L94 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2617 |
| By: | Matthias Rodemeier; Christoph Semken |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the growing field of behavioral environmental economics: the study of how cognition, beliefs, and social preferences shape sustainable behavior and the effectiveness and political feasibility of environmental policy. We synthesize recent theoretical, experimental, and empirical contributions, with emphasis on sustainable consumption, green investment, firm behavior, and political economy. We highlight design lessons and open questions for policy and research. |
| Keywords: | behavioral environmental economics, sustainable consumption, environmental policy, energy conservation, green investment, social preferences, carbon pricing, behavioral political economy |
| JEL: | D61 D72 D91 G11 G41 G41 H23 H41 P18 Q50 Q51 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12847 |
| By: | Bruce Mountain |
| Keywords: | Negotiated settlement, energy networks, regulatory contracting, monopoly regulation, consumer representation, Australia, incentive regulation, energy transit |
| JEL: | L51 L94 L95 D23 K23 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2615 |
| By: | van der Ploeg, Frederick; Rezai, Armon; Tovar, Miguel |
| Abstract: | We analyse carbon taxes, lump-sum climate dividends, and changes to the level and progressivity of the income tax system that optimally trade off carbon emissions, equity, and efficient raising of public revenue while preserving budgetary neutrality and not using individualized lump-sum transfers. Such “third-best†policies include a carbon tax that exceeds the Pigouvian level and recycling of all carbon tax revenue via climate dividends for high (and our preferred) degrees of inequality aversion, even if this implies higher income taxes to meet existing revenue requirements. The carbon tax, climate dividends, and the progressivity of the income tax rise with the degree of inequality aversion. Our results are derived from a micro simulation model estimated from German data, which includes heterogenous households, an Exact Affine Stone Index demand system, and endogenous labour supply. We decompose the welfare effects of policy into emissions, equity, and efficiency components for different degrees of inequality aversion and climate damages. |
| JEL: | D12 D31 D62 D63 H23 J22 Q5 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19612 |
| By: | Wagenvoort, Benjamin (Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford (INET Oxford)); Lafond, François; Dyer, Joel; Farmer, J. Doyne |
| Abstract: | Many technologies grow along S-curves: diffusion is slow, then rapid, then levels off. Forecasting this growth is vital for renewable energy, AI and other technology transitions, but it has been unclear whether technologies follow a single universal process, and past forecasts have proved unreliable. We assemble a database of 120 mature technologies, from canals to mobile phones, and show their S-curve shapes are remarkably universal. Using Bayesian methods and extensive out-of-sample backtesting, we show that a Bertalanffy-Richards process does a good job of fitting the data and its forecasting outperforms popular alternatives. Its point forecasts are typically accurate to within a factor of two, even from a 5% diffusion origin and decades ahead. This gives a validated method to forecast any technology that follows an S-curve, with known accuracy. Our forecasts for solar PV and wind indicate that by 2050 they will supply approximately 18–290 and 4–17 PWh globally each year (90% prediction intervals). Our median estimate for solar in 2050 is about 85 PWh, similar to all useful energy consumed today. Even the most aggressive IPCC AR6, IEA and NGFS scenarios are too pessimistic about solar, implying that ambitious climate targets will likely be met faster than widely believed. |
| Keywords: | Technology diffusion, Bayesian forecasting, S-curves, Energy transition |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-19 |
| By: | Bauer, Michael; Offner, Eric; Rudebusch, Glenn |
| Abstract: | The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) represents the largest climate policy action ever undertaken in the United States. Its legislative path was marked by two abrupt shifts as the likelihood of climate policy action fell to near zero and then rose to near certainty. We investigate equity price reactions to these two events, which represent major realizations of climate policy transition risk. Our results highlight the heterogeneous nature of climate policy risk exposure. We find sizable reactions that differ by industry as well as across firm-level measures of greenness such as environmental scores and emission intensities. While the financial market response to the IRA was economically significant, it did not lead to instability or financial stress, suggesting that transition risks posed by climate policies even as ambitious as the IRA may be manageable. |
| JEL: | G14 G38 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19755 |
| By: | Adamson, S.; Pollitt, M. G. |
| Abstract: | A major claim for the benefits of locational marginal pricing (LMP) in electricity markets has related to increased efficiency in locational investment decisions. However, there has to date been little empirical evidence for this claim. Using a very large dataset of more than 1000 new plant investments in PJM over more than 20 years, we test whether LMPs have shaped investment decisions using quartiles and logistical regression techniques. We show that LMPs and locational capacity prices have been statistic ally significant in relation to where investments in solar and gas-fired generation across PJM, but not for wind generation. We also show that on an intrazonal basis LMP differences appear significant with respect to locational investment decisions for new solar generation within the Dominion zone of PJM. Finally, we note that while LMPs over longer periods of time are difficult to predict as they reflect natural gas prices and other economic variables, LMP basis differentials to a small number of traded hubs are much more predictable, consistent with new generators being able to hedge most price risks at a small number of traded hub prices. |
| Keywords: | Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP), Investment, PJM, Trading Hubs, Logistical Regression |
| JEL: | L94 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2663 |
| By: | Dietrich, Alexander; Leitenbacher, Lukas; Müller, Gernot |
| Abstract: | As part of the green transition, the European cap-and-trade scheme for CO2 emissions will be extended to cover consumer durables. We propose a New Keynesian model that features both, "brown" and "green" durable goods and show that if monetary policy follows a business-as-usual approach, the green transition will be inflationary, with headline inflation increasing by about 20 basis points over a four-year transition period. Monetary policy faces a tradeoff: pursuing a strict inflation target slows the green transition because green durable purchases are especially sensitive to interest rates. We quantify this tradeoff as we contrast headline and core-inflation targeting. |
| Keywords: | Green transition |
| JEL: | E32 E52 E62 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19764 |
| By: | Stephen Littlechild; Ross Baldick |
| Keywords: | Transmission planning, CREZ, ERCOT, renewable energy zones, negotiated settlements, cost allocation, anticipatory investment |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2616 |
| By: | Brunninger, Lukas; Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus; Gugler, Klaus; Heim, Sven |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the Russian invasion in Ukraine and rising gas prices, the ``gas price brake'' was implemented in Germany. We employ a difference-in-differences approach and analyze data on offered gas contracts from two countries with comparable gas markets, where one country (Germany) has implemented the gas price brake and the other (Austria) has not. Our findings support the theoretical prediction, indicating that the gas price brake led to an increase in total annual gas costs in Germany. This increase is entirely attributable to incumbents increasing counterfactual gas prices by up to 90\%. Non-incumbents do not ’milk‘ the brake. |
| Keywords: | Energy policy; Gas Price Brake; Moral hazard; Incumbents |
| JEL: | D04 Q40 Q48 L50 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19763 |
| By: | Marco Gallegati; William Ginn; Jamel Saadaoui; Solomos Solomou; Kun Tian |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether global climate shocks are priced in global oil markets in a stable and homogeneous way. Using monthly data for 1983:03-2024:10, we estimate the response of real WTI spot and futures prices to phase-specific El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) anomalies. A Time-Varying Parameter Local Projection (TVP-LP) framework recovers horizon-specific coefficient paths, allowing transmission of the same measured anomaly to vary across historical market environments. ENSO transmission is asymmetric, time-varying, and spatially heterogeneous. El Nino anomalies lower real oil prices at six- to twelve-month horizons, whereas La Nina anomalies raise them. For futures prices, responses scaled to the sample means of the phase-specific absolute impulse variables-0.33 C for El Nino and 0.39 C for La Nina-imply declines of about 4.1-6.8 percent and increases of about 8.3-11.5 percent. Recent ENSO episodes generate more pronounced responses, consistent with stronger roles for climate information, futures-market expectations, inventories, and delayed supply-demand adjustment. Central-Pacific events, especially La Nina, are more inflationary than Easter-Pacific events, which are typically muted or deflationary. The findings imply that climate shocks are macro-financial risk factors in global oil markets, with implications for inflation, energy prices, and international risk transmission. |
| Keywords: | oil prices, oil futures, ENSO, climate risk, international transmission, time-varying local projections |
| JEL: | E31 F31 F36 G13 Q43 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-64 |
| By: | Jaller, Miguel PhD |
| Abstract: | California is transitioning heavy-duty freight trucks from diesel to battery-electric vehicles to help meet its climate and air quality goals. Unlike passenger vehicles, electric trucks require much larger batteries and high-powered chargers, creating concentrated demands on the electric grid. At the same time, freight carriers operate under strict schedules that leave little flexibility in when and how long trucks can charge. As freight electrification expands, coordinating truck operations, charging infrastructure, and grid planning will become increasingly important. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0vk9j24v |
| By: | Benincasa, Emanuela; Carradori, Olimpia; Ferreira, Miguel; Garcia-Appendini, Emilia |
| Abstract: | We show that climate transition risks can significantly disrupt supply chain networks. Specifically, suppliers affected by the California cap-and-trade program are more likely to lose customer relationships and less likely to form new ones compared to their competitors unaffected by the program. The effects are more pronounced among suppliers facing high competitive pressure and producing standardized inputs. Additionally, affected suppliers experience declines in revenues, assets, and profitability. This supply chain rewiring induced by uncoordinated climate policies is consistent with carbon leakage, as customers exposed to the program through production networks show an increase in their supply chain emission intensity. |
| Keywords: | Climate finance; Carbon emissions; Supply chain; Product market competition; Input specificity |
| JEL: | G32 Q54 Q55 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19676 |
| By: | Martin, Reiner; Monnin, Pierre |
| Abstract: | Buildings account for approximately 40% of the EU’s total energy consumption and around one-third of its energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, if the EU’s climate strategy is to succeed, it will need to improve the energy performance of Europe’s building stock. The task is particularly urgent given that 75% of the building stock is energy-inefficient, and nearly one-fifth of the EU population live in homes that are not comfortably warm in winter. This policy brief draws on new research covering Slovakia, Latvia and Hungary to explore how borrower-based measures (BBMs) can support energy-efficient renovation. The authors argue that significant increases in renovation finance need not involve a trade-off with financial stability. |
| JEL: | N0 F3 G3 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–07–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140308 |
| By: | Bogachev, Anton; Venmans, Frank |
| Abstract: | We assess the effect of the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) on emission reductions between 2008 and 2023. To do so, we compare emissions of ETS installations with non-ETS installations of similar size in the same sector and country. We use data in the UK, the Netherlands, France and Norway, because these countries require companies to report CO2 emissions at low levels, which are below the inclusion criteria of the ETS. We find that the ETS has reduced industrial emissions by approximately 12% in the second phase (2008-2012), by 18% in the third phase (2013-2020) and by 41% in the fourth phase (2021-2023). To obtain strong internal validity, our sample focusses on small companies. However, we find that the larger installations in our sample have made slightly larger emission reductions than the smaller companies. |
| Keywords: | EU Emissions Trading Scheme;carbon pricing;cap and trade;difference-in-differences;climate policy uncertainty |
| JEL: | Q58 Q54 H23 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138269 |
| By: | Bruns, Daniel (Leibniz University of Hannover); Thomsen, Stephan (Leibniz University of Hannover) |
| Abstract: | How do residential real estate markets value large-scale climate policies? We study how Germany’s coal phase-out affects residential property values near decommissioned power plants. Combining detailed residential property listing data from 2007 to 2023 with the staggered timing of plant closures, we estimate dynamic spatial DiD models. Nearby residential property values decline by 8.2%, implying aggregate homeowner wealth losses of approximately €1.9 billion. To distinguish economic from environmental adjustment, we examine changes in employment, population, purchasing power, and air pollution. Declines in population, employment and purchasing power coincide with falling residential property values, whereas improvements in air quality do not seem to offset these losses. Our findings show that residential real estate markets primarily capitalize the deterioration of local economic fundamentals rather than improvements in environmental quality, implying that climate policy generates substantial localized household wealth effects through residential real estate markets – a distributional channel that complements conventional evaluations focused on aggregate environmental benefits and macroeconomic adjustment. |
| Keywords: | asset pricing, housing prices, climate policy, wealth effects, real estate |
| JEL: | Q40 Q48 R12 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18865 |
| By: | Bauer, Michael; Offner, Eric; Rudebusch, Glenn |
| Abstract: | Policymakers and researchers worry that the low-carbon transition may be inadvertently delayed by higher global interest rates. To examine whether green investment is especially sensitive to interest rate increases, we consider the effect of unanticipated monetary policy changes on the equity prices of green and brown European firms. We find that brown firms, measured in terms of carbon emission levels or intensities, are more negatively affected than green firms by tighter monetary policy. This heterogeneity is robust to different monetary policy surprises, emission measures, econometric methods, and sample periods, and it is not explained by other firm characteristics. This evidence suggests that higher interest rates may not skew investment away from a sustainable transition. |
| Keywords: | ESG |
| JEL: | E52 G14 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19754 |
| By: | Gökhan Ider; Alexander Kriwoluzky; Frederik Kurcz; Ben Schumann |
| Abstract: | We empirically show that a central bank’s ability to affect global energy prices crucially alters monetary policy transmission. We first provide novel evidence that euro area monetary policy significantly affects energy prices. Employing a Lucas critique-robust counterfactual framework, we find that this ability strengthens and accelerates transmission to inflation and substantially alleviates the inflation-output trade-off. We further show that this ability materially shapes the mandate-optimal policy response to an energy supply shock: the optimal response implies a smaller interest rate increase and a more favorable inflation-output allocation than in a scenario where energy prices are unaffected by monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | inflation, energy prices, monetary policy, monetary transmission mechanism |
| JEL: | C32 E31 E52 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0102 |
| By: | Remmy, Kevin |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a structural model of endogenous product attribute choice in the presence of indirect network effects to study electric vehicle (EV) subsidies. Using data on the German EV market, I find that a support scheme almost doubled EV sales but substantially affected the price and driving range of EVs. When designing subsidies, these adjustments create a trade-off between optimizing different policy objectives. Large purchase subsidies maximize EV sales, whereas large charging station subsidies maximize consumer and total surplus. The results suggest that maximizing EV sales can lead to unintended consequences in the form of price and range adjustments. |
| JEL: | D12 D62 H23 L62 Q55 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19639 |
| By: | Boldrini, Michela; Bosetti, Valentina; Nunnari, Salvatore |
| Abstract: | Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) — a range of methods to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere — are a crucial innovation in meeting temperature targets set by international climate agreements. However, mechanisms that undo the adverse consequences of short-sighted actions (such as NETs) can fuel substitution effects and crowd out virtuous behaviors (e.g., mitigation efforts). For this reason, the impact of NETs on environmental preservation is an open question among scientists and policy-makers. We model this problem through a novel restorable common-pool resource game and use a laboratory experiment to exogenously manipulate the key features of NETs and assess their consequences. We show that crowding out only emerges when NETs are surely available and cheap. The availability of NETs does not allow experimental communities to either conserve the common resource for longer or accrue higher earnings and makes the earnings distribution more unequal. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Dioxide Removal; Environmental Sustainability; Climate Crisis; Common-Pool Resource |
| JEL: | C92 H41 Q55 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19806 |
| By: | Chitrakshi Jain (TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation); Akshay Jaitly (TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically studies how India's Central Electricity Regulatory Commission adjudicates force majeure disputes in electricity contracts. We examine 52 orders covering 77 party-level observations between 2018-2023. We find that solar generators bring the most claims, and that parties typically litigate during the pre-commissioning phase seeking extensions of time. We find that foreseeable risks like bureaucratic delay and grid or transmission constraints are frequently cited as the events for which such extensions are sought. The Commission rejected 56 of the 77 claims from our dataset. A significant share of rejections emanate from connectivity and transmission agreements, indicating a gap in how interdependent contracts are designed in the sector. Our findings indicate that force majeure litigation in the electricity sector is a result of insufficient appraisal of risks. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bjd:wpaper:22 |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo; Palmou, Christina; Schneebacher, Jakob |
| Abstract: | We study how businesses adjust to significant rises in energy costs. This matters for both the current energy crisis and the longer-term shift towards Net Zero. Using firm-level real-time survey and administrative data backed by a pre-registered analysis plan, we examine how firms respond to the energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine along output, price, input, process and survival margins. We find that, on average, fi rms pa ss on some cost increases, build up cash reserves, and face higher debt, but do not yet see layoffs or bankruptcies. However, effects are highly heterogeneous by size and industry: for instance, small firms tend to increase cash reserves and prices, while large firms invest more in capital. We estimate separate elasticities for many small industry cells and subsequently use k-means clustering techniques on the estimated effects to identify high-dimensional firm-adaptation archetypes. These estimates can help tailor firm support in the energy transition both in the short and the long term. More generally, the machinery developed in this paper enables policymakers to evaluate and adjust economic policy in near-real time. |
| Keywords: | energy price shock; firm dynamics; climate change; high-dimensional analysis |
| JEL: | D24 H23 L11 O30 |
| Date: | 2024–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2024-15 |
| By: | Sanoh Yusuf (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Osaka) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the causal effect of informational access on household cooking fuel choices across seven West African countries using nationally representative Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) data covering 51, 848 households in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. Informational access is proxied by household television ownership, while endogeneity is addressed using a leave-one-out cluster-level television ownership instrument within IV-2SLS, IV-Probit, and nonlinear control-function frameworks. Results show that television exposure significantly increases the probability of LPG adoption by 16.3 percentage points and charcoal use by 17.7 percentage points, while reducing firewood dependence by 13.0 percentage points. IV estimates are substantially larger than corresponding OLS estimates, suggesting that conventional models underestimate the role of informational frictions in household energy transitions. Strong heterogeneity emerges across spatial and socioeconomic groups. Urban households exhibit much larger clean-fuel responses, while rural households remain constrained by weak infrastructure, limited LPG availability, and affordability barriers. Among low-income households, informational exposure increases charcoal use more strongly than LPG adoption, indicating movement toward intermediate fuels rather than full transition to clean energy. The findings suggest that informational access is an important but insufficient driver of clean cooking transitions in West Africa and highlight the need to combine behavioural communication strategies with infrastructure expansion and affordability-focused clean cooking policies. |
| Keywords: | cooking fuel, television ownership, information access, instrumental variables, West Africa. |
| JEL: | O13 Q41 D83 C26 O55 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:2609 |
| By: | Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume; Smets, Frank; Vermandel, Gauthier |
| Abstract: | Climate change confronts central banks with two inflationary challenges: climateflation and greenflation. We investigate their implications for monetary policy by developing and estimating a tractable nonlinear New Keynesian Climate model featuring climate damages and mitigation policies for the global economy. We find that mitigation policies aligned with the Paris Agreement result in higher, more persistent inflation than laissez-faire policies. Central banks can attenuate this inflationary pressure by accounting for the rising natural rate of interest, at the cost of lower GDP during the transition. This short-term trade-off ensures long-term macroeconomic stability resulting from a net-zero emission world. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Inflation; Monetary policy; Stochastic growth model; E-DSGE model |
| JEL: | E32 E52 Q50 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19745 |
| By: | Alice Treesa M; Dr. Arpita Choudhary (Assistant Professor, Madras School of Economics, Chennai, India.) |
| Abstract: | Reliable energy consumption forecasting in the short term is essential for improving building operations efficiency and creating sustainable energy consumption plans. The authors of this study evaluate the forecasting performance of machine learning and deep learning methods which use climate data and time data to predict energy usage at hourly intervals. The study used Linear Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forest, XGBoost and Long Short-Term Memory as comparison methods to assess performance in the same context. The study demonstrated that energy consumption forecasting accuracy depends more on selected features than on the model's complexity. The study found that LSTM model learning capacity remained stable while Random Forest model performance showed superior results in dealing with non-linear features that had temporal attributes. |
| Keywords: | Energy Consumption Prediction, Machine Learning, Ensemble Models, LSTM Model, Feature Engineering, Sustainable Energy Managementsemantics, Neural architectures |
| JEL: | Q47 C53 C45 C38 L94 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mad:wpaper:2026-301 |
| By: | Peter Kudela; Tomas Havranek; Zuzana Irsova; Anna Kudelova; Vojtech Sikl |
| Abstract: | Energy planners have long assumed that electricity demand will grow more price-responsive as metering, automation, and storage spread, an assumption now embedded in decarbonization plans. We test it against the empirical record: 4, 720 own-price elasticity estimates from 462 studies, with data spanning 1934-2024, ranked on a single ladder of identification quality from naive regressions to randomized experiments. Three findings emerge. First, the best-identified studies find smaller responses than naive ones: the publication-bias-corrected short-run elasticity is about -0.16 (a 10% rise in the electricity price cuts consumption by under 2%), and only -0.09 among the best-identified studies, whose adjusted value is statistically indistinguishable from zero. Second, responsiveness grows with time to adjust, roughly doubling from -0.16 in the short run to -0.38 in the long run as the capital stock turns over, but this pattern has itself been stable for decades. Third, and most important, responsiveness shows no upward trend across nine decades of data; if anything, the most technology-rich settings, including time-of-use pricing, are the least price-responsive in total consumption. Prices alone have not made total electricity consumption more responsive; broader demand flexibility will have to be engineered and paid for, through enabling technology, contracts, and program design. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.21285 |
| By: | Fiona Burlig (Harris School of Public Policy and Energy Policy Institute (EPIC), University of Chicago; NBER); James Bushnell (Department of Economics, University of California, Davis; NBER); David Rapson (Department of Economics, University of California, Davis) |
| Abstract: | Despite the importance of program participation for policy, treatment effects are often measured on self-selected samples. We study electric vehicle (EV) managed charging, intended to reduce electric grid strain by optimally allocating charging across EVs. Prior work finds large impacts of managed charging among households who volunteer for an RCT. In contrast, we test managed charging with an experiment including all EVs within a California utility. Enrollment is low even with high incentives, and we can reject even modest intent-to-treat effects on electricity consumption. Managed charging is less effective than previously thought, underscoring the value of population-wide experiments. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-56 |
| By: | Joheera |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the Iran-Israel conflict, and the Middle East tension in general, have affected the Pakistani economy in terms of trade, energy, and remittance. Being an energy-import dependent and export-oriented economy with a large diaspora in Gulf countries, Pakistan is prone to global oil price shocks, oil disruptions along important energy routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and possible drops in remittance inflows. Pakistan saw a potential resolution of an impact on retail fuel prices of about 20 percent in 2023-2026, with an increment of petrol and diesel of 55 per Pak rupee, which has increased inflation and aggravated the trade deficit. This paper illustrates the spread of global political events in domestic economic forces using international trade theory, macroeconomic shock theory and remittance development theory. In order to reduce the risk in the short run and increase resilience in the long-term, it is recommended to diversify the trade, establish energy security measures, formal remittance protection, and implement sound fiscal and monetary policies. The paper highlights the economic fragility of Pakistan to external shocks and outlines feasible measures to help it maintain a growth and stability in the current geopolitical instability. |
| Keywords: | Pakistan economy, Iran conflict, oil price shock, trade disruption, remittances, macroeconomic stability, energy security. |
| JEL: | F0 F00 F01 F02 F2 F21 F24 F29 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128365 |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo; Palmou, Christina; Schneebacher, Jakob |
| Abstract: | We study how businesses adjust to significant rises in energy costs. This matters for both the current energy crisis and the longer-term shift towards Net Zero. Using firm-level real-time survey and administrative data backed by a pre-registered analysis plan, we examine how firms respond to the energy price shock triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine along output, price, input, process and survival margins. We find that, on average, firms pass on some cost increases, build up cash reserves, and face higher debt, but do not yet see layoffs or bankruptcies. However, effects are highly heterogeneous by size and industry: for instance, small firms tend to increase cash reserves and prices, while large firms invest more in capital. We estimate separate elasticities for many small industry cells and subsequently use k-means clustering techniques on the estimated effects to identify high-dimensional firm-adaptation archetypes. These estimates can help tailor firm support in the energy transition both in the short and the long term. More generally, the machinery developed in this paper enables policymakers to evaluate and adjust economic policy in near-real time. |
| JEL: | D22 D24 H23 L11 O30 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19608 |
| By: | Woerner, Andrej; Imai, Taisuke; Pace, Davide; Schmidt, Klaus |
| Abstract: | Carbon pricing is a powerful but politically contentious tool for tackling climate change. Governments can, however, try to increase public support for it by adjusting how the revenues raised by the carbon price are used. In a fully incentivised experiment with a large representative sample of the German population, we compare voter support for five different carbon pricing schemes. We show that uniform carbon dividends (equal per capita transfers to all citizens) receive substantially more support than a carbon dividend that favours poorer people, than earmarking revenues for climate projects, and especially than using revenues for the general government budget. Among the uniform carbon dividend schemes, a Climate Premium that pays a fixed upfront transfer equal to the expected carbon revenues receives more support than a carbon dividend scheme where the size of the transfer is determined ex-post based on the actual revenues. Furthermore, we show that participants and experts underestimate public support for carbon pricing. These findings suggest that policies for sustainable development gain more support when affected voters are uniformly compensated for the costs imposed on them. In addition, the paper highlights the importance of incentivised experiments in studying public support for such policies. |
| JEL: | H23 P48 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19590 |
| By: | Conlon, Thomas; Corbet, Shaen; Larkin, Charles; Muñiz, Jose Antonio |
| Abstract: | This study examines the efficiency of systemic risk transmission to international oil futures markets by analyzing the dynamic connectedness between three distinct Common Volatility (COVOL) measures: Energy, Asset, and Country, and compares such with five major oil benchmarks. Utilizing a framework that combines TVP-VAR, EGARCH, and wavelet coherence analyses, we investigate whether nontrading weekend breaks create a structural barrier to the pricing of systemic risk. Our findings identify a significant Monday effect, characterized by a pronounced decoupling between systemic risk signals and oil futures prices. The effect is highly state-dependent: during the COVID-19 pandemic, the disconnect dissipated for Energy and Asset COVOL but intensified for Country COVOL, while geopolitical conflicts extended the breakdown of the signal into Tuesday. These results indicate a hierarchy of influence in which country-level systemic risks exert the strongest effect on oil markets. |
| Keywords: | COVOL;energy markets;information flow;oil;systemic risk;wavelets |
| JEL: | G14 G15 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140276 |
| By: | Jamhar, Jameel; Jain, Aakansha; Hwang, Roland; Ramji, Aditya |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2751n1mr |
| By: | Ugo Panizza (Geneva Graduate Institute and CEPR); Francesco Tripoli (Harvard Business School); Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Geneva Graduate Institute and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | The Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) rests on the premise that one carbon credit compensates for one tonne of emissions. While a growing body of evidence questions the integrity of many credits, much less is known about whether the ability to offset affects firms' incentives to reduce their own emissions. Using a buyer-linked dataset covering the near-universe of offset retirements, we exploit the 2023 carbon-market scandals as a quasi-natural experiment. Firms that stop offsetting after the shock reduce their operational (Scope 1) emissions substantially more than firms that continue to purchase offsets. This finding is consistent with moral licensing: access to offsets weakens firms' incentives to undertake internal abatement. We also document persistent oversupply, opaque intermediation, and sharp price and volume responses to the scandals. Our results identify a demand-side problem in the VCM that is distinct from concerns about credit quality: even when credits represent genuine emissions reductions, the option to offset may slow decarbonization within purchasing firms. |
| Keywords: | Voluntary Carbon Market; Carbon credits; Integrity controversy; Rebound effects; Moral hazard; GHG Emissions |
| JEL: | G14 L11 L51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–08–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp21-2026 |
| By: | Baccianti, Claudio; Baltzer, Markus; Boesel, Nils; Finck, David; Hagemann, Tim; Kuntz, Laura-Chloé; van der Meyden, Friso; Schlam, Carina; Schober, Dominik; Unger, Robert |
| Abstract: | Achieving Germany's goal of greenhouse gas neutrality by 2045 requires a shift to non-fossil energy sources and low-carbon production and consumption patterns. This transformation necessitates substantial investments. According to existing evidence, estimates of additional investment needs - beyond replacement investments - range between 2% and 4% of GDP per annum. This study explores the capacities of the German banking system to finance these additional investment requirements. We conclude that the German banking sector's, given solid excess capital and assuming frictionless credit allocation between banks, is capable of financing these additional investments even under conservative assumptions. However, the results of firm and household surveys conducted by the Bundesbank show that in both groups, a majority is reluctant to decarbonize and undertake the necessary investments in the coming years. |
| Keywords: | Banks, Capital regulation, Climate investment, Net-zero emission pathways |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G31 Q43 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubtps:342511 |
| By: | Tyson, Judith; Chanda, Arka |
| Abstract: | The transition to a green economy is increasingly dependent on private finance, particularly given the fiscal constraints to delivering on the transition to net zero emissions faced by sources of public finance. However, the integration of just transition principles into private financial flows remains limited, narrow in scope and far from mainstream. As private capital plays a growing role in funding climate mitigation and adaptation, it is essential that this financing reflects local sustainable economic and social development needs, while safeguarding principles of equity, inclusion and justice. Progress is currently constrained by practical barriers, notably limited awareness and understanding of how to operationalise just transition principles and a lack of well-developed business cases to advance just transition objectives. This policy brief synthesises the findings of the Just Transition Finance Lab’s research series on ‘Emerging Best Practice for Just Transition Finance’ and identifies a critical gap: the lack of a robust, quantifiable business case for just transition finance. It highlights the need for policy leadership to set clear baselines and expectations for market practice. The authors review current approaches, provide examples of good practice and outline ongoing challenges given recent headwinds and structural issues facing the just transition. They make recommendations for policymakers and financial actors to progress just transition integration within private finance, drawing primarily on insights from engagement with asset managers. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138973 |
| By: | Yusuf, Alia; Utamawati, Herlina |
| Abstract: | Indonesia’s downstream integration into global nickel supply chains has had significant economic benefits, strengthening the country’s position in the global energy transition and increasing the Government’s fiscal revenues. At the same time, nickel-producing regions face heightened exposure to climate-related and environmental risks, including flooding, ecosystem degradation and pollution. These dynamics make growing demands of subnational governments, which play a central role in disaster response and climate adaptation. Best practices from other commodity-driven economies offer some useful policy lessons for Indonesia, ranging from stakeholder coordination platforms to revenue stabilisation funds. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140368 |
| By: | Hennicke, Peter; Dittrich, Monika; Dierks, Janina |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the macroeconomic implications and the critique of a too narrowly defined category of economic competitiveness. Typically, the short-, medium-, or long-term goals that are to be achieved through competitiveness are not further addressed, let alone potentially conflicts of objectives for example, economic competitiveness in relation to increased climate protection or fostering the transformation to a circular economy being analysed in a sufficient way. Therefore, this paper aims not only to critically examine the seemingly unambiguous target of "increasing competitiveness" in relation to different socieatal goals and perspectives, but also to propose a broader concept of "green" and systemic competitiveness for use in scientific policy advice. It becomes clear that competitiveness is not an end in itself, but rather a means to achieve the medium- and long-term goals of a circular, decarbonised economy and a well-being society. Against this backdrop a new look into the relation between green competitiveness and economic growth is also necessary. Ambitious climate mitigation, circular economy and dematerialisation strategies foster the rapid growth of GreenTech sectors and at the same time the degrowth of fossil, resource intensive or risky sectors. To what extent this politically driven economic structural change towards net-zero emissions and a circular economy contributes to overall positive and more sustainable pattern of GDP growth and to an (absolute) decoupling of GDP from resource consumption remains an open question. Considering sufficiency policies in conjunction with the predominantly technical strategies of efficiency and sufficiency (renewable energies) as well as with circular economy strategies makes it, according to studies, easier to achieve climate neutrality and risk minimisation through decoupling. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wuppap:342478 |
| By: | Barwick, Panle; Kwon, Hyuk-soo; Li, Shanjun; Wang, Yucheng; Zahur, Nahim Bin |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of industrial policies (IPs) on innovation in the global automobile industry. We compile the first comprehensive dataset linking global IPs with patent data related to the auto industry from 2008 to 2023. We document a major shift in policy focus: by 2022, nearly half of all IPs targeted electric vehicles (EV)-related sectors, up from almost none in 2008. In the meantime, there has been a clear technological transition from internal combustion engine (GV) technologies to EV innovations. Our analysis finds a positive relationship between policy support and innovation activity. At the country level, a one-standard-deviation increase in five-year cumulative EV-targeted IPs is associated with a four-percent rise in new EV patent applications. Firm-level analyses (using OLS, IV, and PPML) indicate that a ten-percent increase in EV financial incentives received by automakers and EV battery producers leads to a similar four-percent increase in EV innovations. We confirm the importance of path dependence in the direction of technology change in the automobile industry but find no evidence that EV-targeted IPs stimulate innovation in GV technologies. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; Patent |
| JEL: | L52 L62 O31 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19660 |
| By: | Lokshin, Michael M. |
| Abstract: | Can energy-rich developing countries convert cheap electricity into AI compute exports? This paper develops a capacity-constrained trade model of AI compute services with bilateral frictions in delivery, regulation, and trust. Calibrating the model across 85 countries shows that several developing economies can produce compute at low cost, but this advantage rarely becomes export competitiveness. Because hardware dominates unit costs and is globally priced, cross-country production costs differ by only 12–20 percent. Modest regulatory, financing, and trust frictions can therefore erase the gains from cheap power. The binding constraint is institutional credibility rather than electricity prices, including enforceable data governance, stable regulation, credible power contracts, access to finance, and geopolitical alignment with buyers. |
| Date: | 2026–07–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11426 |
| By: | Baumeister, Christiane; Huber, Florian; Lee, Thomas K.; Ravazzolo, Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the forecastability of the real price of natural gas in the United States at the monthly frequency considering a universe of models that differ in their complexity and economic content. Our key finding is that considerable reductions in mean-squared prediction error relative to a random walk benchmark can be achieved in real time for forecast horizons of up to two years. A particularly promising model is a six-variable Bayesian vector autoregressive model that includes the fundamental determinants of the supply and demand for natural gas. To capture real-time data constraints of these and other predictor variables, we assemble a rich database of historical vintages from multiple sources. We also compare our model-based forecasts to readily available model-free forecasts provided by experts and futures markets. Given that no single forecasting method dominates all others, we explore the usefulness of pooling forecasts and find that combining forecasts from individual models selected in real time based on their most recent performance delivers the most accurate forecasts. |
| JEL: | C11 C32 C52 Q41 Q47 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19669 |
| By: | Roselyne Jeanne-Brou (CASHVOLT); Cédric Carles (REGENBOX); Stéphane Casse (REWATT); Olivier Huzard (JOULE EN VRAC); Maxime Bleskine (VOLTR); Louis Mettery (SEENSYS); Aurélien Aberbache (MEDIACLINIC); Christophe Deboffe (NEO-ECO); Christophe Bondu (IWIP); Diana de Bernardy (GS1); Seydina Diedhiou (BRING BACK); Gwenaël Kervajan (RE-LION FACTORY); Nadjib Renaï (RCUBE LA FÉDÉRATION DU RÉEMPLOI ET DE LA RÉPARATION); Marion Monnier (RCUBE LA FÉDÉRATION DU RÉEMPLOI ET DE LA RÉPARATION); Benoit Varin (RCUBE LA FÉDÉRATION DU RÉEMPLOI ET DE LA RÉPARATION) |
| Abstract: | The battery market is growing rapidly, driven by the electrification of uses, light mobility, consumer electronics, energy storage and electric vehicles. This growth is creating a strong strategic dependence on imports, critical raw materials and value chains that remain largely dominated by Asia. In this context, battery reuse is becoming a concrete lever for industrial sovereignty, decarbonisation and local value creation. The Battery White Paper shows that many sources of value remain underexploited: smartphones, electric bicycles, power tools, stationary storage, lead-acid batteries and professional equipment. However, the development of this sector is still held back by a lack of trust, standardisation and reliable evidence regarding the actual condition of batteries. Without diagnostics, traceability and shared reference frameworks, it is difficult to secure reuse, reassure users and scale up industrial practices. The White Paper therefore provides a structured analysis of the technical, economic, environmental and regulatory challenges related to the second life of batteries. It also underlines that reuse and recycling are not opposed to one another: better diagnosing and better directing batteries can also improve the quality of flows sent to recycling. The report also documents the environmental benefits of reconditioning, with significant reductions in carbon footprint compared with new batteries. This collective work brings together field operators, industrial players, repairers, reconditioners, recyclers, trainers, experts and organisations committed to the circular economy. It therefore constitutes a reference framework for public authorities, local governments, companies, the media and stakeholders across the sector. Citing this White Paper means recognising the emergence of a French battery reuse sector and helping to make its needs visible: diagnostics, safety, traceability, access to battery streams, training and a clear regulatory framework. It also means supporting a responsible approach: repairing, regenerating, reconditioning or reusing batteries whenever relevant, before directing them towards recycling. Recommended citation: Jeanne-Brou, R. et al. (2026). Réemployer les batteries en France : vers une industrialisation responsable. Impacts économiques, sociétaux et environnementaux d'une filière stratégique pour l'industrie française. RCube. ISBN: 978-2-322-63904-5. |
| Abstract: | Le marché des batteries connaît une croissance rapide, portée par l'électrification des usages, la mobilité légère, l'électronique, le stockage et les véhicules électriques. Cette croissance crée une dépendance stratégique forte aux importations, aux matières premières critiques et à des chaînes de valeur largement dominées par l'Asie. Dans ce contexte, le réemploi des batteries devient un levier concret de souveraineté industrielle, de décarbonation et de création de valeur locale. Le Livre Blanc Batterie montre que de nombreux gisements restent sous-exploités : smartphones, vélos électriques, outillage, stockage stationnaire, batteries plomb-acide ou équipements professionnels. Pourtant, le développement de cette filière reste freiné par un manque de confiance, de standardisation et de preuves fiables sur l'état réel des batteries. Sans diagnostic, sans traçabilité et sans référentiel commun, il est difficile de sécuriser le réemploi, de rassurer les utilisateurs et d'industrialiser les pratiques. Le Livre Blanc propose donc une lecture structurée des enjeux techniques, économiques, environnementaux et réglementaires de la seconde vie des batteries. Il rappelle que réemploi et recyclage ne s'opposent pas : mieux diagnostiquer et mieux orienter les batteries permet aussi d'améliorer la qualité des flux vers le recyclage. Il documente également les bénéfices environnementaux du reconditionnement, avec des réductions d'empreinte carbone significatives par rapport à une batterie neuve. Ce travail collectif réunit des acteurs du terrain, industriels, réparateurs, reconditionneurs, recycleurs, formateurs, experts et structures engagées dans l'économie circulaire. Il constitue ainsi un socle de référence pour les pouvoirs publics, les collectivités, les entreprises, les médias et les acteurs de la filière. Citer ce Livre Blanc, c'est reconnaître l'existence d'une filière française en structuration et contribuer à rendre visibles ses besoins : diagnostic, sécurité, traçabilité, accès au gisement, formation et cadre réglementaire. C'est aussi soutenir une approche responsable : réparer, régénérer, reconditionner ou réemployer lorsque cela est pertinent, avant d'orienter vers le recyclage. Référence recommandée : Jeanne-Brou, R. et al. (2026). Réemployer les batteries en France : vers une industrialisation responsable. Impacts économiques, sociétaux et environnementaux d'une filière stratégique pour l'industrie française. RCube. ISBN : 978-2-322-63904-5. |
| Keywords: | Reuse, Batterie, Economy, Climate resilience, Investment, Ecology, Réemploi, Ecologie, Investissement, Résilience Climatique, Economie |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05682584 |
| By: | Barwick, Panle; Kwon, Hyuk-soo; Li, Shanjun; Zahur, Nahim Bin |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicle (EV) battery costs have declined by more than 90% over the past decade. This study investigates the role of learning-by-doing (LBD) in driving this reduction and its interaction with two major government policies – consumer EV subsidies and local content requirements. Leveraging rich data on EV models and battery suppliers, we develop and estimate a structural model of the global EV industry that incorporates heterogeneous consumer choices and strategic pricing behaviors of EV producers and battery suppliers. The model allows us to recover battery costs for each EV model and quantify the extent of LBD in battery production. The learning rate is estimated to be 7.5% during our sample period after controlling for industry technological progress, economies of scale, input costs, and EV assembly experience. LBD magnifies the effectiveness of consumer EV subsidies and drives cross-country spillovers from these subsidies. Upstream battery suppliers capture only a minor share of LBD’s economic benefits, and consumer EV subsidies correct for the under-provision of learning and improve social welfare. China’s local content requirement helps domestic suppliers gain a competitive advantage at the cost of consumers and foreign suppliers but would have harmed domestic welfare if delayed by five years. |
| Keywords: | Learning-by-doing |
| JEL: | F13 L52 L62 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19852 |
| By: | Stefano Carattini; Givi Melkadze; Inès Mourelon |
| Abstract: | Central banks and financial surveillance authorities need to cope with the potential realization of financial stability risks, adopting preventive measures or using liquidity once crises materialize. Transition risk — the stability risk associated with decarbonization — is a case in point. Such risk not only comes from policy changes, but also from preference shocks. Hence, this paper develops an environmental DSGE model with financial frictions and examines responses to shocks, including a novel angle on preference shocks. We show that these market-driven transition shocks generate larger macro-financial instability than carbon pricing for a given change in emissions, while delaying environmental gains. We then compare policy responses according to their timing. Ex-ante macroprudential policies that reduce banks’ exposure to transition risk dampen financial amplification, whereas ex-post interventions, such as quantitative easing, provide only partial stabilization once losses have materialized. Overall, our results indicate that market-led adjustments to transition risk are more destabilizing than carbon pricing, whereas preventive financial measures limit macro-financial instability more effectively than ex-post interventions under the policy comparisons considered, supporting the case for early action. |
| Keywords: | transition risk, financial frictions, climate policy, preference shocks, macroprudential policy, quantitative easing |
| JEL: | E32 E60 G18 Q43 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12844 |
| By: | Dana Golden; Brett Indelicato; Lav R. Varshney; Carlos D. Messina; Suzanne Thornsbury |
| Abstract: | Rigorous economic models can take months to construct, yet energy crises demand decisions from policymakers within days or even hours. Any disruption in energy markets is not isolated but rapidly disseminates through interlinked global systems. Off-the-shelf models that already exist typically focus only on limited aspects of the system and are distributed across research groups, programming languages, software architectures not designed for model integration, and incompatible formats. Integrating these models manually can take longer than the crisis itself, forcing analysts to rely on whichever models are easiest to connect and leaving consequential scenarios unexplored. Policymakers must make rapid decisions with obstructed and limited information. We show that large language models can perform the critical integration directly. The system constructs internally consistent scenarios, translates assumptions into model-specific inputs, executes existing economic and physical models in dependency order, and synthesizes outputs tailored to policymakers. The language model generates no quantitative results: every reported value is reproduced directly from an underlying model run, remains traceable to its source and is subject to analyst approval at each stage. We develop a LLM framework that coordinates 16 models of oil, natural gas, shipping, water, helium, fertilizer and macroeconomic equilibrium. The framework is applied across five scenarios to assess the 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz and refreshed weekly for eight weeks as events on the ground continued to unfold. By linking models that already exist and reading them as a suite rather than in isolation, this architecture mobilizes distributed scientific models rapidly during energy and geopolitical disruptions while keeping any single model's assumptions from driving the conclusion. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.23313 |
| By: | Carattini, Stefano; Chatterjee, Anomitro; Cherry, Todd |
| Abstract: | Biased beliefs affect real-world decisions, including political solutions to societal challenges. One crucial example is environmental policy: people tend to underestimate the incentive effect of Pigouvian policies. Addressing biased beliefs at scale is then paramount. In the days leading up to a ballot initiative in Washington state, we implemented a large-scale field experiment providing information on carbon taxes to over 285, 000 individuals. We complemented it with a survey experiment of about 1, 000 individuals, with the same treatments as in the field experiment, shedding light on social desirability bias and mechanisms around belief revision. Using data at the voting precinct level, we show that our intervention increases revealed support for carbon taxes, mainly for a treatment centered around earmarking of tax revenue, which was one of the design features of the ballot initiative. We find the effect to be stronger in precincts relatively opposed to the initiative, and less exposed to media coverage of carbon taxes, and more exposed to coverage challenging their effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | Carbon taxes; Voting behavior; Facebook ads; Natural field experiments |
| JEL: | C93 D72 D82 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19850 |
| By: | Whittard, Damian; Bradley, Peter; Phan, Van; Ritchie, Felix |
| Abstract: | Given the urgency to transition to net-zero, there is a need for a robust evidence-base to support an environmentally sustainable and equitable changeover. However, intelligence on green jobs and their impact on different groups is lacking. This study examines the dynamics of green jobs, leveraging a novel linked dataset that combines detailed occupational, industry, demographic and pay information from 2011 to 2018. By employing both cross-sectional and panel estimation techniques, we provide a wide-ranging analysis of employment in green occupations. The results indicate that individuals are more likely to work in green occupations if they are white, male, fulltime, not in a trade union and work for a small or foreign owned business. There is a pay premium for working in green occupations, which reduces gender and ethnic pay gaps. However, conditional on working in a green occupation, gender and ethnic pay gaps persist. This implies that to have a fair and just transition to net-zero, policy interventions are required to address the dual inequality of opportunity and pay. |
| Keywords: | fair and just; green jobs; inequality; multivariate quantitative methods; net zero; pay gap |
| JEL: | C10 J15 J16 J49 O52 Q00 |
| Date: | 2024–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2024-13 |
| By: | Bettarelli, Luca; Furceri, Davide; Pisano, Loredana; Pizzuto, Pietro |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of climate change policies on inflation, for a large sample of 177 developed and developing economies, 78 subnational territorial areas and 17 sectors, over the period 1989-2022. We show that carbon taxes lead to inflationary pressures. The effect is not negligible: a one standard deviation carbon tax shock—corresponding to a 5$/tCO2 increase in emissions-weighted carbon taxes—leads to an increase of the price level of about 0.7 percent one year after the implementation of the policy, and between 1.6 and 4 percent in the medium term. These results hold at the national, sub-national and sectoral level. The effect is larger when inflation is initially high, and in regions (sectors) characterized by high emissions and low innovation capacity. In contrast, we find that emissions trading systems as well as non-market-based climate change policies (such as R&D subsidies) do not have statistically significant effects on prices. |
| JEL: | E31 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19643 |
| By: | Hizliok, Setenay; Scheer, Antonina; Nuzzo, Carmen |
| Abstract: | Assessing Sovereign Climate-related Opportunities and Risks (ASCOR) is an investor-led initiative launched to provide comprehensive and comparable assessments on how countries are managing the low-carbon transition as well as the physical risks stemming from climate change. ASCOR aims to inform, support and facilitate investment decision-making, especially by sovereign bondholders, and enable a more explicit consideration of climate change at the national level. In 2023, following a public consultation, the TPI Global Climate Transition Centre (TPI Centre) at the London School of Economics (LSE), launched the ASCOR framework: methodology note Version 1.0 and the ASCOR tool, which included the first assessments of 25 pilot countries. In 2024, this was expanded to 70 countries, and in 2025, to 85 countries, using updated versions of the methodology note (Version 1.1 and Version 1.2), respectively. The TPI Centre conducted a second public consultation between December 2025 and February 2026 to revisit the framework and gather feedback on larger proposed methodological changes than in previous versions. |
| JEL: | N0 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140354 |
| By: | Pástor, Luboš; Stambaugh, Robert F.; Taylor, Lucian |
| Abstract: | We review the literature on sustainable investing, focusing on financial effects. First, we examine the effects of investor tastes on portfolio tilts and asset prices in a simple equilibrium setting. We establish novel connections, including a direct relation between the green portfolio tilt and the greenium. We also relate our framework to prior modeling of divestment. Finally, we review evidence related to the main concepts from our theoretical analysis, including the greenium, green tilts, climate risk, and investor tastes. |
| Keywords: | ESG |
| JEL: | G11 G12 G14 G23 Q5 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19746 |
| By: | Gürkaynak, Refet |
| Abstract: | With the notable exception of Turkey, the post-Covid inflationary episode in Emerging Europe followed the same contours as in advanced economies and was primarily due to external shocks, especially in energy prices. The Turkish case was due to misguided monetary policy that led to inflation that is an order of magnitude higher and more persistent. Emerging European countries’ post-Covid inflation surges depended on their exposure to energy prices based on the weight of energy in the consumption basket and the energy intensity of production, as well as the share of imported energy used in the country. In these regards, Emerging European countries were no different from euro area countries. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19822 |
| By: | Huy Nguyen; Celine Thevenot |
| Abstract: | Fuel and food constitute significant portions of consumer baskets, yet their prices are highly volatile. The renewed energy price shock in March 2026, driven by geopolitical disruptions and supply constraints, has highlighted the macroeconomic and distributional importance of how international price shocks transmit to domestic markets. Spikes in these prices can have major social, political, and economic implications. The conventional policy approach is to allow domestic retail prices to align with international prices while protecting the most vulnerable. However, many countries intervene in price settings to shield their domestic markets from global fluctuations. This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the passthrough from global to domestic retail prices for four commodities: gasoline, diesel, wheat, and rice over the past two decades in many countries. We employ a dynamic model of local projections building on the work of Kpodar and Abdallah (2017). Our findings indicate that average passthrough is incomplete, with fuel exhibiting higher and faster passthrough than food. The extent of passthrough varies by period, region, and between commodity exporters and importers. We also examine asymmetric responses to global price shocks and find evidence of a ratchet effect: price increases are more likely to be passed through than decreases. |
| Date: | 2026–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/148 |
| By: | Sanoh Yusuf (Graduate School of Economics, The University of Osaka) |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies transition finance risk in Japan using a text-mined index constructed from over 60, 000 newspaper articles (2008–2025), combined with structural vector autoregression and firm-level local projections. Four findings emerge. First, transition risk shocks generate persistent equity effects, with prices declining for up to 18 months, while GDP and inflation responses remain statistically insignificant at all horizons. This suggests that transition risk operates primarily through discount rates and risk premia rather than contemporaneous real activity. Second, once economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is controlled for, average green–brown return differentials are economically small (−0.043 standard deviations) and remain statistically significant. Equivalence tests indicate these differentials are practically negligible ruling out monthly effects as small as 0.1% suggesting that estimates without EPU controls conflate general macroeconomic uncertainty with transition-specific effects. Third, transition risk exhibits state dependence. During elevated uncertainty, brown firms experience larger equity penalties (−4.12% versus −1.85%), a 123% amplification. Fourth, transition shocks display persistence and autonomous dynamics, consistent with an independent source of systematic financial risk rather than a proxy for conventional macroeconomic shocks. The amplification during high-uncertainty periods has implications for the macro-financial timing of climate policy. |
| Keywords: | Transition Risk, Text Mining, Japan GX Strategy, Climate Finance, SVAR |
| JEL: | G12 Q54 C32 G14 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:2608 |
| By: | Schneider, Eric B. |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how acute pollution exposure in historical London (1892–1919) affected child health. I proxy acute, extreme pollution exposure using daily data on fog events, which reflect meteorological conditions where pollution emitted in the city was not dispersed across space leading to a sharp spike in pollution. I also use rich individual-level data on child health drawn from the Queen Charlotte Hospital, a maternity hospital, and the Foundling Hospital, an orphanage. I find no effect of pollution exposure at birth on birth or growth outcomes or on upper respiratory morbidity. However, exposure on the day of birth had persistent effects on health, increasing mortality risk in childhood and adolescence from respiratory diseases and raising incidence, prevalence and sickness duration of influenza and measles. There was no persistent effect of in utero and postnatal pollution exposures. These mixed results show that extreme pollution at birth had lasting impacts on specific, but also limited, dimensions of child health. |
| Keywords: | ambient air pollution;morbidity;child growth;respiratory disease;health transition |
| JEL: | N33 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:140269 |
| By: | Enoch Ntsiful (UB - Universitat de Barcelona); Francois Cohen (UB - Universitat de Barcelona); Jordi Teixido (UB - Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Keywords: | Large-scale, Energy Access, Off-grid technologies |
| Date: | 2026–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05693919 |
| By: | Jamhar, Jameel; Ramji, Aditya; Hwang, Roland |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6n01m35w |
| By: | Paluri, Saket |
| Abstract: | For rural Ohio drivers, running low on battery charge isn't a minor inconvenience. It can mean stranding, detours, or abandoning the trip altogether. Despite Ohio's growing vehicle fleet, less than one percent are electric, and charging infrastructure remains concentrated in Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati, leaving rural corridors without reliable access. Prior research on EV infrastructure has focused almost exclusively on urban centers and highway corridors, largely overlooking rural mobility needs. This study addresses that gap by combining GIS spatial analysis with driver survey data to identify rural Ohio corridors where strategic charger placement would most effectively reduce detours and range anxiety. Charging stations were mapped statewide, Priority Zones with gaps exceeding 30 miles were flagged, and six candidate sites were selected using traffic, population, and land-use criteria, then verified through a 47-respondent dealership survey. The results were striking: 66% of respondents cited charging availability as a barrier to EV adoption, and 72% reported feeling stranded or anxious while searching for a charger, with reported anxiety corridors matching the exact gaps identified through spatial analysis. For state planners and infrastructure developers, these findings suggest that closing six specific corridors could meaningfully expand where Ohioans can realistically own an EV. |
| Date: | 2026–07–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pkxmy_v2 |
| By: | van den Bremer, Ton; Hambel, Christoph; van der Ploeg, Frederick |
| Abstract: | An easy-to-interpret rule for the optimal risk-adjusted social cost of carbon is derived using perturbation analysis. This rule internalises the adverse effects of global warming on the risk of recurring climate-related disasters and the risk of irreversible climate tipping points as well as the usual adverse effect on total factor productivity. It approximates the true numerical optimum well, especially if the small parameters (i.e., the share of damages in GDP, the sensitivity of the risk of disasters to temperature and the risk of climate tipping) are small enough and the discount rates corrected for growth and risk is not too small. The rule is also accurate if applied to models with a different supply side, e.g., with ongoing technical progress in fossil-fuel production or multiple economic sectors. |
| JEL: | H21 Q51 Q5 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19645 |
| By: | Doyle, Christopher |
| Abstract: | Capacity markets are increasingly used to secure electricity-system reliability, but their auction designs raise persistent concerns about market power. This paper examines strategic capacity withholding in the British Capacity Market, which procures future capacity through a three-stage process: pre-qualification, disclosure of aggregate qualified supply, and a descending-clock auction with a uniform clearing price. We develop a formal model in which a small number of large portfolio bidders interact with a competitive fringe of uncertain size. The central result is that the same auction rule generates different observable forms of market power depending on bidders’ information about fringe supply: under full information, strategic bidders withhold capacity ex ante by limiting entry at pre-qualification, with no subsequent withdrawal; under imperfect information, capacity may instead be withdrawn after disclosure or during the clock auction as bidders update beliefs about market tightness. The absence of visible in-auction withdrawal is therefore consistent with maximal strategic withholding rather than competitive behaviour. We further derive a closed-form threshold for the per-unit cost of withdrawal: withholding remains profitable even under substantial institutional frictions, and the threshold rises with portfolio size and with the spread between clearing prices in tight and loose market conditions, so strategic withholding is strongest precisely when reliability conditions are most stressed. We relate the framework to recent GB auction outcomes and develop a stage-specific policy taxonomy, highlighting the role of contestability-enhancing reforms alongside direct auction mitigation. |
| Keywords: | auction design;capacity markets;capacity withholding;descending clock auctions;market power;electricity market regulation |
| JEL: | D44 L94 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:139055 |
| By: | Yurii Sholomytskyi; Nathaniel Butler Blondel; Mr. Mumtaz Hussain |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the transmission of oil price shocks to the banking sector in oil-dependent economies, using Oman as a case study. We develop a DSGE model featuring an integrated banking block with endogenous credit rationing and a sovereign wealth fund stabilization rule, calibrated to Omani institutional targets and disciplined by Bayesian methods. Our structural approach disentangles two primary transmission channels: the solvency channel, driven by credit risk and non-performing loans (NPLs), and the liquidity channel, driven by pro-cyclical government deposit withdrawals and sovereign debt issuance. The structural variance decomposition attributes over 54% of non-oil GDP variance and 53% of credit variance to oil price shocks, while bank capital shocks account for less than 0.1%, confirming the quantitative dominance of the liquidity channel. We identify a precautionary liquidity motive—a “liquidity buffer trap”—where banks maintain excess liquidity during booms to hedge against hydrocarbon volatility, structurally suppressing credit to the productive sector. Our counterfactual regime analysis reveals the stabilizing power of credit depth: banking conservatism protects long-term physical capital formation, and the ongoing financialization of the corporate sector— including the rapid growth of Islamic banking and sukuk markets—under Vision 2040 further amplifies this structural resilience. We acknowledge identification challenges inherent in small-sample structural estimation and discuss the sensitivity of results to key modeling assumptions. |
| Keywords: | Oil price shocks; DSGE; Credit rationing; Banking liquidity; Sovereign Wealth Fund; Fiscal-financial nexus; Islamic banking; Oman |
| Date: | 2026–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/142 |
| By: | Lee, Gi-Eu; Erfanian, Elham |
| Abstract: | In the United States, a substantial share of K–12 public school funding is raised locally, particularly through property taxes (Marchand & Weber, 2020; NCES, 2020). A growing economics literature examines the relationship between the siting of large-scale industrial facilities and local educational outcomes but reports mixed results (e.g., Brunner et al., 2022; Gupta and Rodriguez, 2025; Schiller and Slechten, 2025). Although these studies consistently find positive effects on school revenues and expenditures, their estimated effects on student achievement are largely insignificant. We argue that part of the null result may instead reflect empirical designs based on the Difference-in-Differences (DD) framework, particularly when control districts are also exposed to contemporaneous tax-base shocks from other, non-studied energy facilities. This paper examines how local power plants affect student achievement in Ohio from 2009 to 2019. We use changes in nameplate capacity across all power plant types to measure fluctuations in the local property-tax base. Our results show that changes in local power plant capacity significantly affect student achievement, but the effects emerge with heterogeneous lags across subjects and fade over time. We also show that applying the DD framework to our data yields null effects similar to those in prior studies, whereas applying our empirical model to the publicly available SEDA test-score data used by Brunner et al. (2022) recovers statistically significant effects. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404747 |
| By: | Brooks, Matthew; Usmani, Faraz |
| Abstract: | Over 2.8 billion people are chronic ally exposed to hazardous levels offine particulate matter air pollution. This paper provides novel evidence that workers in such settings partially adapt to chronic exposure but that adaptation does not offset cumulative harm. We estimate the effect of PM2.5 on labor productivity using individual-level performance data from 14 years of professional cricket in India (2008–2022), paired with a machine learning data product providing daily PM 2.5 estimates at 10 km resolution. Leveraging variation in day-to-day exposure generated by league scheduling rules, we find that a 10 μgm−3 increase in same-day PM 2.5 (half a standard deviation) reduces bowler performance by about 1 percent relative to batters, consistent with bowlers’ heightened exposure via higher respiration rates. Effects are non-linear, with the largest marginal damages above approximately 50 μgm−3—levels common in developing countries but uncommon in causal studies. Using variation in chronic exposure from player assignment to teams according to salary cap rules, we find that acute shocks harm those with the highest past exposure approximately 40 percent less than those with median exposure histories, indicating adaptation over both 30-day and career-spanning horizons. Nevertheless, chronic exposure degrades performance by more than adaptation offsets, except under extremely rare pollution conditions. These findings underscore the importance of regulating these cond moment of the pollution distribution: non-linearity implies that marginal damages are largest when pollution is in the uppertail, while partial adaptation implies that spikes above mean levels amplify marginal damages. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404434 |
| By: | Kang, Minseong; Lee, Seungki |
| Abstract: | The U.S. renewable diesel boom sharply expanded domestic soybean crushing, drawing a growing share of the crop into local processing and away from barge-borne exports down the Mississippi River. We ask whether this supply chain reorganization buffered inland soybean prices against river droughts. We estimate a storage-based structural VAR that allows crush activity to respond endogenously to market conditions, and identify river-disruption shocks using theory-based elasticity bounds. Holding crush activity at its pre-boom level, in the counterfactual analysis, reveals lower inland spot prices by 5.5 percent on average over 2021–2024. The resilience effect appears in spot prices and convenience yields, but not in futures prices, consistent with a local storage-demand channel. Our findings indicate that renewable diesel expansion changed not only the level of soybean demand, but also the price consequences of recurrent transportation shocks. |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:asea26:404828 |
| By: | Richard S. J. Tol |
| Abstract: | The rich have emitted the bulk of greenhouse gases. The poor suffer the bulk of the impacts. Climate change is a transfer from poor to rich. Climate policy is a transfer from rich to poor. Why, Schelling asked, do people in the Global North care about the descendants of people they do not care about? And, assuming they do, are there no better ways to help them than emission reduction? A prominent economist, Schelling posed his Paradox and Conjecture in a series of papers in the 1980s and 1990s. The economics profession has largely ignored his work, instead focusing on Nordhaus' simpler carbon-as-an-externality framing. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.04322 |
| By: | Adeline Bas (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sophie Sl Leonardi (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Manuel Bellanger (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Hélène Buchholzer (UBO EPE - Université de Brest, AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marjolaine Frésard (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Juliette Jestin (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pascal Le Floc’h (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UBO EPE - Université de Brest); Christelle Le Grand (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Célya Martial (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Huixin Wu (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Olivier Thébaud (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The expansion of offshore wind power, a central component of European and French energy strategies, is leading to increasing interactions with the commercial fishing industry. While the ecological impacts of these infrastructure projects have prompted a growing body of research, the economic and social dimensions are now emerging as major research priorities. This article outlines four research areas led by the AMURE Joint Research Unit, aimed at generating knowledge on these dimensions that can inform the planning of offshore wind farm development. |
| Abstract: | L'expansion de l'éolien en mer, au cœur des stratégies énergétiques européenne et française, génère des interactions croissantes avec la pêche professionnelle. Si les impacts écologiques de ces infrastructures ont suscité un volume croissant de travaux de recherche, les dimensions économiques et sociales s'imposent désormais comme des enjeux de recherche majeurs. Cet article expose quatre axes de recherche portés par l'Unité Mixte de Recherche AMURE, visant à produire des connaissances sur ces dimensions, susceptibles d'informer la planification du développement des parcs éoliens en mer. |
| Keywords: | social license, power relations, co-location, vulnerability, marine spatial planning, spatial competition, offshore wind energy, Commercial fisheries, Pêche professionnelle, éolien en mer, concurrence spatiale, planification, vulnérabilité, coactivité, rapports de pouvoir, acceptabilité |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05677296 |
| By: | Ayhan, Sinem (Middle East Technical University); Lehmann, Hartmut (New Uzbekistan University) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the labor-market costs of job displacement among coal miners in Turkey, a middle-income country where coal phase-out has not yet begun but may become increasingly relevant under decarbonization pressures. Using linked employer–employee administrative data, we identify displaced workers through mass layoffs and estimate event-study models with propensity score matching. We document large and persistent earnings losses. Among workers returning to registered employment, real monthly earnings fall by about 25 percent immediately after displacement and daily wages decline by 11–14 percent. Workers returning to coal experience virtually no persistent wage penalty, whereas those switching to non-coal sectors face lasting daily-wage losses of about 18 percent. Losses are largest for core underground miners, longer-tenured workers, and workers with longer non-employment spells. Over five years, the present discounted value of earnings losses equals roughly one year of pre-displacement earnings. Although the aggregate burden appears manageable at the national level, it is highly concentrated in coal-dependent regions, underscoring the importance of place-based just-transition policies. |
| Keywords: | coal phase-out, job displacement, just transition, wage losses, employment |
| JEL: | J63 J65 Q54 Q58 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18813 |
| By: | Friberg, Richard |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of the theoretical and empirical literatures on the effect of algorithm use on prices, focusing on the type of algorithms relevant for gasoline markets. Against this background we examine pricing and algorithm use on the Swedish gasoline market 2021-2023, relying on detailed information of what algorithms that are used by what station at what time. Only a handful of stations are using AI. Pricing at these AI stations change markedly when AI is adopted, resulting in many more price changes. On average margins are somewhat lower with AI but AI stations charge relatively higher prices during the afternoon peak in demand. In contrast use of rule-based pricing algorithms is pervasive and three out of the four major chains use rule-based algorithms from external algorithm providers. Examining of duopoly markets (stations with only one competitor within a 10-minute drive) suggest that algorithms are faster to respond to price decreases than manual pricing. |
| Keywords: | Algorithmic pricing |
| JEL: | D22 D43 L13 L71 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19830 |
| By: | Daniel Heyen; Frederik Holtel |
| Abstract: | Carbon-crediting methodologies determine how imperfect monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) evidence is translated into issued credits. When project developers can influence measured outcomes, greater reliance on project-specific data improves targeting but also strengthens incentives to manipulate the signal. We develop a model in which a crediting authority commits to a crediting rule while anticipating the project developer's response. The framework distinguishes statistical accuracy from gaming robustness. The optimal rule generally attenuates the MRV signal: greater accuracy and robustness justify stronger reliance on project-specific evidence, whereas higher credit prices and greater heterogeneity in gaming ability call for a flatter rule. Even when manipulation becomes prohibitively difficult, measurement noise alone implies attenuation. We also characterize how market and project conditions affect the relative value of improving accuracy versus robustness. An illustration using project-level data on cookstove carbon credits shows how independent reassessments can inform the framework and highlights the data requirements for empirical implementation. |
| Keywords: | carbon crediting, carbon offsets, monitoring reporting and verification, strategic manipulation, crediting-rule design, gaming robustness |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 D82 L51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12872 |
| By: | Sieber, Niklas; Duffner-Korbee, Dorien |
| Abstract: | The paper examines why Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs) often fall short of delivering substantial changes in urban transport and climate performance, and how their effectiveness can be improved. Drawing on a 2023 survey of transport planners in ten cities participating in the EU project REALLOCATE, it analyses current SUMP practice regarding spatial coverage, time frames, goal setting, targets, implementation, and monitoring. The findings reveal weak quantification of climate and mobility targets, limited coverage of functional urban areas, and a significant imple-mentation gap, particularly for politically sensitive "push" measures that restrict car use. Monitoring is uneven and sometimes leads to a weakening of targets rather than to policy adjustment. To strengthen the impact of SUMPs, the paper proposes a vision-led transport planning approach that includes backcasting, SMART targets, and quantitative impact assessments before and after implementation. It provides guidance on the selection of measures and calls for integrated push-and-pull packages. National and regional governments can support the development of vision-led SUMPs by combining funding and technical assistance with regulatory minimum standards. Addi-tionally, the paper introduces "Climate Mobility Plans" as a tool to enhance the effectiveness of transport policies in climate mitigation. Overall, the paper demonstrates that achieving sustainability in transport requires a vision-led plan-ning approach supported by coordinated action across levels of government. While municipalities play a central role, national and regional governments can significantly improve the performance of SUMPs. |
| Keywords: | Vision-led transport planning, Sustainable Urban Mobility Planning, SUMP, Article 41(1)(b) of EU Regulation 2024/1679, Mobility planning, Transport planning, Goal-oriented planning, Target achievement in transport planning, Push and Pull, Climate Mobility Plan, Functional urban area |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:342566 |
| By: | Tong Liu; Jacob Mays |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the rapid growth of data centers, we develop a model to evaluate bringyour-own-capacity (BYOC) mandates and flexibility accreditation in capacity markets for new large loads with shared supply-chain constraints. With efficient pricing, BYOC mainly reallocates procurement between grid-built and self-built capacity and therefore has little welfare effect, while flexibility delivers a modest gain by reducing the effective capacity requirement. Under administrative price caps, mandates can improve static welfare by forcing data centers to internalize the full cost of capacity. The welfare ranking of the two instruments depends on supply-chain stress. At low or moderate stress, only the flexibility instrument raises welfare. Under severe stress with capped prices, the welfare gain from the BYOC obligation can exceed the gross flexibility benefit. The two instruments differ in their effects on a neighboring market: a unilateral BYOC mandate can crowd out its capacity investment, while flexibility produces essentially no spillover at our calibrated benchmark. Finally, applying current capacity non-performance penalties to flexible loads may lead to financial incentives that are too weak to induce truthful flexibility reporting. |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2608.06528 |
| By: | SECK, Serigne Momar |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of infrastructure on real convergence among ECOWAS member states over the period 2000-2024. It assesses the extent to which improvements in infrastructure contribute to narrowing economic performance gaps between member countries and the region’s most advanced economies. To capture the multidimensional nature of infrastructure, a composite infrastructure index is constructed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), based on four dimensions: transport infrastructure, access to electricity, internet usage, and mobile telephony. The analysis relies on a panel dataset covering the fifteen ECOWAS countries and incorporates several control variables, including intra-regional trade openness, inflation, agricultural value added, macroeconomic stability, human capital, and governance. The empirical strategy combines fixed-effects and random-effects models, Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE), Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, the dynamic System-GMM estimator, and an instrumental variable approach that uses public investment as an instrument for the infrastructure index. The study’s originality lies in the use of Cape Verde as the regional development frontier, complemented by robustness checks employing Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria, and the ECOWAS regional average as alternative benchmarks. The results indicate that infrastructure significantly contributes to reducing growth disparities within ECOWAS. Transport infrastructure emerges as the main driver of convergence, followed by access to electricity and mobile telephony. Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness of the findings, particularly when Cape Verde is used as the regional benchmark. Overall, the study highlights the central role of infrastructure in fostering economic catch-up and strengthening regional integration in West Africa. |
| Keywords: | Real convergence; Infrastructure; ECOWAS; Economic growth; Regional integration; Panel data; Principal Component Analysis (PCA); Instrumental variables. |
| JEL: | F43 F45 L92 L93 L95 L96 O11 O12 R42 |
| Date: | 2026–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:130385 |