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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Amigues, Jean-Pierre |
| Abstract: | The energy transition is often described as a ’wall of investment’ issue. But not only renewable energy expansion must cope with the carbon free energy needs result-ing from the Paris agreement but most of the present day fossil energy production capital will have to be abandoned by the middle of the century. We consider a partial equilibrium model where energy is produced from a CO2 polluting source and a carbon free source. Crude energy transformation into energy services requires specific capital infrastructures, accumulated through a costly investment process submitted to ad-justment costs. Fossil fuels burning generates CO2 emissions and the total cumulated emissions is caped by a global atmospheric CO2 concentration stabilisation objective. We describe the socially optimal policy in this context. Prior to the phase when the society is actually constrained by the climate cap, we show that the pattern of evo-lution of the production capacities of the fossil fuel industry exhibits a three regimes structure: fist an ascending phase, followed by a stabilisation phase when the industry stops investing and its production capacity peaks before falling when approaching the time at which the climate constraint becomes binding. During the two first phases, the energy transition occurs in a context of increasing energy supply while it happens in a context of increasing energy scarcity during the last phase, capacity accumula-tion in the renewable energy industry being lower than the scraping of capacities in the fossil fuels industry. The non-monotonicity of the energy price path induces the possibility of waves of investment in the clean renewable energy sector. If fossil energy gets a larger share in the fuel mix at the beginning of the climate regulation, fossil energy production will peak at a larger level. We show that the regulator must adapt to this situation not by preventing a larger peak but by making it happen earlier, thus building initially a form of carbon ’saving’ that will be progressively consumed afterwards before the climate constrained episode. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Energy transition; Capacity constraints, Adjustment costs. |
| JEL: | Q32 Q35 Q42 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:131791 |
| By: | Ege Asutay (Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena) |
| Abstract: | Does carbon pricing fuel the populist radical right? This paper exploits the Phase 3 reduction in free emission allowances beginning in 2013 in the EU Emissions Trading System as a quasi-natural experiment in a difference-in-differences model for 889 NUTS-3 regions in 23 European countries. Regions more exposed to the shock saw higher populist radical-right (PRR) shares, concentrated in European Parliament (EP) elections, pointing to expressive voting that channels EU-policy grievances toward the EU ballot box. The shock reaches voters through broader regional stagnation rather than deindustrialisation, as services employment falls, GDP per capita declines, and population shrinks while manufacturing employment remains unchanged. A sectoral decomposition links the EP concentration to regions with greater power-sector exposure, consistent with allowance-cost pass-through to household electricity bills. Replacing PRR with populist radical-left or Green vote shares flips the coefficient to negative, suggesting a right-wing rather than generic protest response. Instrumental variable estimates based on the manufacturing free-allocation component support the finding, which survives controls for Eurozone-crisis exposure and migration patterns. The paper contributes to the political economy of climate policy by showing that carbon pricing can generate geographically concentrated right-wing backlash and EU-directed protest voting. |
| Keywords: | EU Emissions Trading System, carbon pricing, populist radical right, climate policy backlash, regional decline, expressive voting |
| JEL: | D72 H23 Q52 Q58 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2026-006 |
| By: | Omar Martin Fieles-Ahmad , Victor Libet; Michael Kvasnica (Faculty of Economics and Management, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg); Victor Libet |
| Abstract: | We study whether the sharp rise in petrol prices following the bombing of Iran on 28 February 2026 affected the short-run demand for battery electric vehicles in EU-27 countries. Using monthly vehicle-registration data and fixed-effects panel regressions, we show that the petrolprice shock increased battery electric-vehicle adoption, in particular in countries with better charging infrastructure and lower charging costs. Our findings suggest that higher fossil-fuel prices can accelerate the transition towards electric mobility. |
| Keywords: | War, oil price shock, fossil fuel prices, electric cars, mobility transition, EU 27 |
| JEL: | D12 Q42 L91 R40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mag:wpaper:26012 |
| By: | Hong Lee (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Sung Wook Hong (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | This study examines worsening instability in the oil industry’s supply chain due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which has placed severe upward pressure on international oil prices. Prices of petroleum-based products in South Korea have risen rapidly, increasing the burden on consumers and fueling inflation concerns. Rising international oil prices are highly likely to feed through to the real economy through increased transportation, logistics, and manufacturing costs. Skyrocketing prices for Dubai crude (up 49.8 percent) and domestic gasoline prices (up 12.7 percent) since the US and Israel began their campaign against Iran have exceeded the initial increases seen when Russia invaded Ukraine. In response, the Korean government implemented a price cap system to mitigate market anxiety and the spread of inflation expectations. This system, which sets a cap on the prices that oil refiners are allowed to sell at every two weeks, has been in effect since March 13, 2026. Following its implementation, national average gasoline and diesel prices fell by KRW 70 to KRW 120 from their peaks, showing a stabilizing trend. The government is also considering a packaged response that combines price caps with other policy instruments, such as fuel tax cuts and direct subsidies to consumers. This package of policies could temporarily suppress rapid price surges and ease the burden on consumers, but it also risks exacerbating non-price rationing and long-term supply shortages. <p> Ceilings on prices prevent the price signal from constraining demand, which during a supply shock can worsen shortages, lead to long lines at the pump, and eliminate price competition among retailers. Therefore, price caps on petroleum need to be utilized with great care as a short-term market stabilization tool, rather than as a permanent feature. <p> Future policy responses should take a package approach that combines various policy instruments, including fuel tax cuts, direct support, the utilization of strategic petroleum reserves, and diversification of import sources. Given that fuel dependency and cost structures vary by industry, a differentiated policy response considering industry-specific characteristics is necessary, rather than a uniform price regulation. Industries such as logistics, freight, fisheries, agriculture, and public transportation are particularly exposed to fuel costs, meaning oil price shocks are highly likely to be passed through to production and transportation costs. Thus, the government should design targeted support or fuel-cost subsidies. For the oil refining, petrochemical, and energy-intensive manufacturing sectors, a policy approach considering supply stability and cost buffering is needed so that medium- to long-term security of supply and investment incentives are not adversely affected |
| Keywords: | energy; energy supply and demand; energy pricing; price ceilings; price caps; energy policy; energy markets; oil prices; US-Iran war; Hormuz |
| JEL: | Q41 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:022568 |
| By: | Mattia Leoni (Department of Economics, Roma Tre University); Stefano Di Bucchianico (Department of Economics and Statistics, University of Salerno and CELPE) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the distributive effects of climate change mitigation policies across a panel of 29 OECD countries over the period 1990-2020.We estimate the dynamic impact of a one-standard-deviation increase in the level of the OECD Environmental Policy Stringency (EPS) Index on income inequality indicators from the World Income Inequality Database. To address potential endogeneity in policy adoption, we employ an Instrumental Variables Local Projections (IV-LPs) framework. The paper contributes to the literature on the macroeconomic and distributive consequences of climate action in two main ways. First, building on evidence regarding the role of institutions in enabling effective environmental action, we propose a novel instrument based on global climate-related speeches by central banks, combined with country-specific institutional characteristics. Second, the results show that the distributive effects of environmental policy are highly heterogeneous across instrument types. Market-based climate policies generate regressive, although short-lived, effects. By contrast, Technology-support policies, namely public research and development (R&D) expenditure and renewable energy support, generate progressive redistributive effects and expansionary macroeconomic effects on real GDP and investment, although at the cost of upward pressure on inflation. On the labour-market side, the transmission channels operate through long-term improvements in employment and women’s labour-market participation. Uncovering these heterogeneous effects is essential for designing policies that can secure a “just” socio-economic transition. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change; Public R&D Policy; Income Inequality; Just Transition; IV Local Projections |
| JEL: | C33 D63 E25 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sal:celpdp:022586 |
| By: | Kaitila, Ville; Kuosmanen, Natalia; Maczulskij, Terhi |
| Abstract: | Abstract This brief examines the links between research and development (R&D), innovation, international trade, and the green transition in Finland. The findings are based on a Business Finland-funded research project analyzing export demand shocks, firms’ innovation activities, and the effects of environmental policies on Finnish companies. The studies focusing on international trade show that Finland’s global export market share has declined over recent decades due to weak performance and an unfavorable export product structure. At the same time, positive export demand shocks increase firms’ patenting activity and product innovation, whereas negative shocks reduce innovation activity and exports. These findings underline the importance of international trade for firms’ innovation incentives and long-term economic growth. The studies related to the green transition and climate change objectives demonstrate that firms’ own R&D investments, together with R&D spillover effects within industries, are associated with lower greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) has not significantly weakened firms’ competitiveness; instead, it has increased process and product innovation while improving energy efficiency. The results suggest that well-designed environmental policies can simultaneously support emission reductions and innovation. |
| Keywords: | Innovations, R&D, International trade, Green transition |
| JEL: | F10 F14 O31 Q50 |
| Date: | 2026–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:180 |
| By: | Schroeder, Christofer |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the employment effects of carbon pricing under the European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS). I refer to standard methods from the literature to define and measure the environmental properties of jobs along two dimensions: how “green” a job is, and how polluting it is. I then leverage a series of shocks to EU-ETS prices to estimate their dynamic impacts on employment. The panel local projections estimates reveal that an exogenous 1% increase in EU-ETS prices leads to a roughly 0.2% decline in employment after one and a half years. Impacts on employment in more polluting jobs are estimated to be even stronger, while impacts on employment in greener jobs are also estimated to be negative, albeit less pronounced. Two factors play an important role in shaping these responses: the allocation of free emissions allowances and the stringency of employment protection legislation. When relatively fewer emissions are covered by free allowances, the negative employment effects of EU-ETS price shocks are stronger. Similarly, when employment protection is greater, the estimated impact is more muted. Average weekly hours of work is found to be an additional margin along which EU-ETS prices impact employment yet the estimated effects are relatively small and short-lived. Together, these findings underscore the economic consequences of carbon pricing, offering valuable insights for policymakers balancing climate objectives with labour market considerations. JEL Classification: E24, J21, H23, Q54, Q58 |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing, climate change, employment, green jobs, polluting jobs |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263237 |
| By: | Ruppert Bulmer, Elizabeth N.; Christiaensen, Luc; Farole, Thomas; Lehr, Ulrike |
| Abstract: | Climate change and environmental degradation are accelerating globally, with low-income countries facing especially severe impacts and having limited resources to adapt or invest in mitigation. The global shift toward a sustainable, carbon-neutral development path -referred to as the green transition presents significant opportunities for productivity gains, diversification, and job creation, as well as substantial adjustment costs for firms, workers, and governments. This paper examines how the green transition affects economies and jobs through multiple channels and identifies emerging risks, potential labor market disruptions, new employment opportunities, and policy priorities. |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:208638 |
| By: | Tahir, Aliza; Siddiqui, Danish Ahmed |
| Abstract: | The research investigates the effects of the dimensions of Green Strategic Leadership Capabilities i.e. 1. foresight, 2. adaptive, and 3. absorptive capabilities on pro-environmental behavior and green innovative behavior in manufacturing firms in Pakistan and then considers the mediating influences of environmental knowledge sharing, green rewards, and green self-efficacy, along with the moderating effect of green training. We infer that foresight capabilities are measured by 1. Green tester (GT), and 2. Green farmer (GF), adaptive capabilities that included 1. Green management system (GMS), 2. Green Markets (GM), and 3. Gren Technology (GTEC), and absorptive capabilities measured by 1. Green Acquisition (GA), 2. Green assimilation (GAS), and 3. Green Transformation (GTRAN), and Green Exploitation (GE), all enhance environmental knowledge sharing, this will in turn increase green rewards and green self-efficacy, ultimately leading to pro-environmental behavior and green innovative behavior. We also contend that the effects of green rewards and green self-efficacy on pro environmental and green innovative behavior are moderated by green training in a way that high levels of training with make these relationships more pronounced. The study has collected 300 responses from the managerial staff of Pakistani manufacturing firms. The results show that Green foresight capability negatively significantly affects environmental knowledge sharing, while green absorptive capability greatly enhances both environmental knowledge sharing and green self-efficacy. Environmental knowledge sharing positively and significantly mediates the relationship between the two green capabilities and green rewards. Moreover, green rewards favor green innovative behavior and pro environmental behavior while green self-efficacy has a positive and significant effect on green innovative behavior. Finally, green training moderates the relationship between green rewards and pro-environmental behavior in a negative way because of mediation. The overall conclusion suggests that environmental knowledge sharing acts as an important mediator for a lot of relationships, whereas green training moderates the effect on behavior. Thus, the results show that organizational capabilities with knowledge sharing are important drivers of sustainable behavior and innovation in these manufacturing firms. |
| Keywords: | Pro-Environmental Behavior, Green Leadership, Green Rewards, Green Self-Efficacy, Pakistan, PLS-SEM. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341019 |
| By: | Hilde C. Bjornland; Nicolas Hardy; Dimitris Korobilis |
| Abstract: | We develop a Quantile Bayesian Vector Autoregression (QBVAR) to forecast real oil prices across different quantiles of the conditional distribution. The model allows predictor effects to vary across quantiles, capturing asymmetries that standard mean-focused approaches miss. Using monthly data from 1975 to 2025, we document three findings. First, the QBVAR improves median forecasts by 2-5%relative to Bayesian VARs, demonstrating that quantile-specific dynamics matter even for point prediction. Second, uncertainty and financial condition variables strongly predict downside risk, with left-tail forecast improvements of 10-25% that intensify during crisis episodes. Third, right-tail forecasting remains difficult; stochastic volatility models dominate for upside risk, though forecast combinations that include the QBVAR recover these losses. The results show that modeling the conditional distribution yields substantial gains for tail risk assessment, particularly during major oil market disruptions. |
| Keywords: | oil price forecasting, quantile regression, Bayesian VAR, tail risk, distributional forecasting |
| JEL: | C32 C53 Q41 Q47 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-39 |
| By: | Alberto Chong (Georgia State University and Universidad del Pacifico); Marco Chong (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether a society's orientation toward individualism causally influences per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We conceptualize the link through a collective action framework: because atmospheric quality is a global public good, its provision requires coordinated restraint, and cultural individualism, which places primacy on personal autonomy over group norms, is predicted to erode precisely the internalization of collective costs that pro-environmental behavior demands. We show that a one-point increase in Hofstede's individualism index is associated with an increase of approximately 0.04 metric tons of CO2 per capita. Endogeneity is addressed using blood-type genetic distance and confirm our results. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2620 |
| By: | Kurzhanskiy, Alex |
| Abstract: | California’s transition to electric vehicles (EVs) requires more than additional charger counts. Public charging must be accessible, affordable, and reliable where people actually live and travel. This report presents a geospatial dashboard and time-series toolkit for the nine Bay Area counties that maps public charging stations, tracks price and charging-port status at 10-minute intervals, and identifies disadvantaged community (DAC) census tracts using the joint U.S. Department of Energy/U.S. Department of Transportation/National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (DOE/DOT/NEVI) framework. The tool reports charger availability, utilization, pricing, reliability, and average session cost, and supports equity metrics such as ports per 1, 000 residents or renters, travel time to a direct-current fast charger, and tract-levelcomparisons between DAC and non-DAC areas. It also supports early screening of sites for Level-3 fast chargers by identifying locations that appear feasible from the grid standpoint. The result is a practical planning tool that allows agencies to monitor conditions continuously without field surveys and to target investments toward areas of greatest need. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Electric vehicle charging, Pricing, Reliability, Transportation equity, Underserved communities |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt2jp4n9dj |
| By: | Koltunov, Maksym; Tricarico, Luca; Bisello, Adriano |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the financing of energy communities in Italy, focusing on the roles of key actors, financial instruments, and project builders. It also analyses the economic and ESG impacts that financing actors expect from energy communities. These expectations are shaped by Italy's progressive regulatory framework, which has already supported more than 422 energy communities. We conducted 19 semi-structured interviews with stakeholders involved in financing and building energy communities, supplemented by extensive desk research. Our descriptive analysis identified the financing instruments used by different actors and their recipients both within and beyond the ECs. Thematic analysis highlights the crucial role of municipalities and technical partners in successful project implementation, though municipalities often face significant challenges. Mixed funding, a balanced energy production-consumption ratio, and scalable installations are essential to attract private investment; however, social fund regulations substantially prolong payback periods. Therefore, private actors are primarily driven by indirect economic (e.g., cross-selling, territorial presence) and strategic benefits, while public stakeholders focus on social outcomes. Nonetheless, ECs' potential to address energy poverty is limited by incentive tariff design and modest private-sector engagement. These factors, along with low economic returns, risk undermining ECs viability once subsidies end. The article concludes with stakeholder and policy recommendations aimed at enhancing private investment while advancing the social objectives of energy communities. |
| Keywords: | Energy communities; community energy; Italy; financing; ESG; investment; policy; impact |
| JEL: | G23 L3 L94 L98 |
| Date: | 2026–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128721 |
| By: | Cremer, Helmuth; Borsenberger, Claire; Joram, Denis; Lozachmeur, Jean-Marie; Malavolti, Estelle |
| Abstract: | We study environmental policy in imperfectly competitive markets where firms differ in their objectives. Alongside standard profit-maximizing firms, we consider welfareoriented firms that partially or fully internalize environmental externalities but are subject to financial viability constraints. Wedevelop a Cournot model in which production generates emissions and firms may differ in the extent to which they account for environmental damages. We characterize market equilibria and examine the effects of environmental taxes and output subsidies on emissions, output, profits, and welfare. Our analysis shows that standard Pigouvian prescriptions are modified by the presence of market power and by the break-even constraints faced by welfare-oriented firms. While emissions taxes reduce environmental damages, they may also exacerbate underproduction and threaten the viability of socially responsible firms. Conversely, output subsidies may improve welfare despite increasing emissions. The welfare ranking of policy instruments depends critically on the interaction between environmental externalities, imperfect competition, and firms’ financial constraints. These findings suggest that environmental policy design should account not only for emissions reduction, but also for the market structure and sustainability of firms with socially oriented objectives. |
| Keywords: | Environmental policy; imperfect competition; heterogeneous firm objectives; corporate social responsibility; Pigouvian taxation; break-even constraints. |
| JEL: | H23 L13 D62 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:131729 |
| By: | Merino Troncoso, Carlos |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of global oil price shocks in a small open economy DSGE framework with an endogenous logistics sector. Using Panama as a case study, we estimate the model using Bayesian techniques and identify exogenous oil supply shocks through fluctuations in global oil prices. We find that oil shocks generate stagflationary dynamics, characterized by higher inflation and lower output. Importantly, higher global shipping costs induce endogenous trade reallocation toward shorter maritime routes, increasing activity through the Panama Canal. This logistics channel partially offsets output losses but does not prevent a decline in welfare due to inflation distortions and consumption volatility. The results highlight the role of trade infrastructure as a partial stabilizer in highly open and dollarized economies, while underscoring the limits of real adjustment mechanisms in the absence of independent monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Oil price shocks, DSGE model, small open economy, trade reallocation, logistics sector, Panama Canal, Bayesian estimation |
| JEL: | C11 E32 F41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–04–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128814 |
| By: | Javier Aliaga Lordemann (Investigador asociado de INESAD); Luis Salinas San Martin (Docente Universidad Privada Boliviana); Leonardo Betanzos Saravia (Asistente de investigación de INESAD) |
| Abstract: | El documento presenta un primer ejercicio para analizar los efectos macroeconómicos y sectoriales de eliminar el subsidio implícito al gas destinado a la generación eléctrica en Bolivia. Para ello, utiliza un modelo simple de corto plazo tipo 2STAGE-E estático de Equilibrio General Computable (CGE), calibrado con una Matriz de Contabilidad Social (SAM), y simula escenarios de retiro gradual y total del subsidio. El ejercicio se organiza en dos bloques complementarios. El primero mide el costo de oportunidad del subsidio y sus efectos sobre inflación, consumo, PIB y sectores productivos. El segundo evalúa cómo distintos precios del gas se trasladan a la tarifa eléctrica bajo escenarios de demanda constante y demanda flexible. El análisis distingue dos precios de referencia del gas. El primero corresponde a un precio máximo regulatorio o de transición, en el que el precio del gas aumenta de 1, 30 US$/KPC a aproximadamente 3, 25–3, 35 US$/KPC. Este caso representa un ajuste parcial del subsidio y genera un aumento de la tarifa regulada cercano al 30%, lo que permite identificar un primer umbral de reforma. El segundo precio de referencia es 6, 60 US$/KPC o US$/MMBtu, utilizado como aproximación al costo de oportunidad del gas. Este valor representa un escenario de sinceramiento económico completo. Además, el bloque tarifario incorpora dos casos adicionales: la convergencia a costo de generación, asociada a un costo térmico cercano a 60 US$/MWh, y un escenario de importación de gas, que evalúa el riesgo de que el país deba importar gas natural para generación eléctrica en los próximos años. A nivel macroeconómico, los resultados muestran que, con un retiro del subsidio de 25%, la tarifa eléctrica aumenta 13, 9%, el IPC sube 1, 3%, el consumo real de los hogares cae 1, 5% y el PIB real agregado se reduce 0, 4%. Cuando el precio del gas se acerca a 3, 25–3, 35 US$/KPC, la tarifa aumenta alrededor de 30%. Con un precio de referencia de 6, 60 US$/KPC, equivalente a un retiro de 50%, el precio del gas llega a 3, 95 US$/KPC, la tarifa eléctrica aumenta 27, 7%, el IPC sube 2, 7%, el consumo de los hogares cae 3, 1% y el PIB real se reduce 0, 9%. Finalmente, con un retiro de 100% respecto al precio de 6, 60 US$/KPC, la tarifa eléctrica aumenta 55, 5%, el IPC sube 5, 4%, el consumo real de los hogares cae 6, 1% y el PIB real agregado se contrae 1, 8%. Los escenarios de importación muestran que, si el país debe recurrir a gas importado para sostener la generación térmica, la tarifa podría enfrentar presiones mucho mayores, superiores al 76%. A nivel sectorial, el impacto directo más fuerte se observa en electricidad y agua, cuyo PIB cae 13, 7% en el escenario de retiro total. Sin embargo, la manufactura aparece como el sector más relevante y vulnerable por su intensidad eléctrica, su dependencia de insumos intermedios y su exposición al mercado interno. En este escenario, la manufactura registra un aumento de precios de 4, 2% y una caída del PIB sectorial de 2, 2%. También se observan impactos relevantes en minería e hidrocarburos, transporte y logística, construcción, y comercio y otros servicios, lo que confirma el carácter transversal del shock eléctrico. El documento concluye que la eliminación del subsidio debería aplicarse de forma gradual y acompañarse de medidas de mitigación. Entre las principales recomendaciones se encuentran: sustituir el subsidio universal por protección focalizada aguas abajo; rediseñar la estructura tarifaria con bloques de consumo diferenciados; proteger a los hogares vulnerables mediante una tarifa social fortalecida; establecer tratamientos transitorios para sectores electrointensivos; impulsar la eficiencia energética, la gestión de demanda, la reducción de pérdidas, las energías renovables, el almacenamiento y la generación distribuida; y crear un fondo de transición energética y compensación productiva con trazabilidad explícita. |
| Keywords: | Subsidio energético, modelo CGE, SAM, generación eléctrica, política de precios, Bolivia. |
| JEL: | Q43 Q48 D58 H23 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adv:wpaper:202604 |
| By: | Thomas K. Kloster; Fred Espen Benth |
| Abstract: | We study forecasting of the realized covariation in electricity markets. The realized covariation in this context is a matrix-valued representation of the latent infinite-dimensional covariance operator and a parsimonious matrix-HAR type model is constructed to facilitate estimation. We test the model on one-week ahead forecasts of the weekly realized covariation and find that the inclusion of longer time horizons and renewable generation information adds important predictive power. We also investigate the prediction of risk premia in electricity forward markets and find that our variance forecasts provide substantially improved forecasts of spread risk premia compared to standard methods relying on backward looking volatility. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.05991 |
| By: | Chewpreecha, Unnada; de Nicola, Francesca; Mattoo, Aaditya; Pollitt, Hector; Tran, Trang Thu |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effectiveness of different policy instruments in accelerating the adoption of low-carbon technologies. Despite substantial declines in the costs of these technologies, diffusion remains uneven, driven by local economic conditions and policy environments. Using a modeling approach grounded in technology diffusion theory, the paper assesses how price-based (for example, carbon taxes and subsidies) and non-price-based (for example, mandates and regulatory requirements) instruments affect technology diffusion and carbon emissions across four East Asian economies. The analysis explicitly accounts for path dependence, learning, and technology uncertainty, factors often overlooked in standard models. The results highlight the importance of timing and policy sequencing: in the early stages of diffusion, price instruments may be less effective while non-price instruments can more successfully address coordination failures and subsequently enhance the impact of carbon pricing. The optimal policy combinations ultimately depend on the stage of technological maturity, initial technology adoption patterns, and local conditions. |
| Date: | 2026–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11393 |
| By: | Honorati, Maddalena; Migliaccio, Emanuela |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the role of social protection and labor (SPL) policies in complementing green transition policies by both mitigating the potential negative impacts of the transition on workers and low-income households and by enabling people to take advantage of emerging opportunities. The paper proposes a conceptual framework to assess how green transition policies influence people through changes in prices, production, and jobs. The paper reviews country case studies of SPL programs designed to protect people exposed to the potential negative impacts of the green transition, to prepare workers for green jobs and to promote environmentally sustainable livelihoods. Key factors of success in integrating SPL policies into green transition policies include effective institutional coordination, strong delivery systems, and integrated data systems. |
| Date: | 2025–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:204663 |
| By: | Leanne Cass; Federico Fabio Frattini; Misato Sato; Aurelien Saussay; Francesco Vona |
| Abstract: | There is growing evidence that green jobs have higher skill requirements, but whether they offer sufficient wage incentives to encourage workers to acquire those skills remains unclear. We study the green wage premium and its drivers to isolate the average return to green tasksusing online job vacancy (OJV) data for EU countries over the period 2018-2023. We develop a transparent LLM-based approach to classify job vacancies as green when they list at least one green task. Green jobs pay a premium of 5.5% relative to comparable postings within the same occupation, and this estimate is little changed when controlling for nonmonetary job attributes making these jobs more attractive. Roughly half of this premium is explained by firm fixed effects, consistent with an important role for firm rents. An Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition shows that the higher skill complexity explains a further one tenth of the premium, leaving a residual return to green tasks of around 2%. The green wage premium is higher outside the manufacturing sector, and for low-carbon roles. |
| Keywords: | green wage premium, skill gaps, green tasks, LLM |
| Date: | 2026–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2185 |
| By: | Patrick A. Imam; Mr. Tigran Poghosyan |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates why the post-COVID inflation surge, though globally synchronized, led to widely divergent outcomes across countries. Using cross-country regressions for 130 economies and local projections methods for 70 advanced and emerging markets, we analyze the structural, institutional, and policy determinants of post-pandemic inflation dynamics. The results indicate that historical inflation and the scale of domestic energy price shocks account for most of the cross-country variation in cumulative post-COVID inflation. In contrast, many frequently cited country-specific, macroeconomic fundamentals and institutional features exhibit limited power to explain cross-country variation. The association between post-COVID inflation and domestic policy responses is also weak, although endogeneity complicates a clear causal interpretation. The analysis further reveals that pass-through from energy prices to headline inflation intensified markedly in the post-COVID period, particularly in emerging markets, in non-inflation-targeting regimes, and in countries that did not expand fossil fuel subsidies. These findings highlight the asymmetric transmission of supply shocks and underscore the importance of credibility, historical inflation experience, and energy policy design in shaping inflation persistence. Strengthening central bank credibility and anchoring expectations may be essential to bolster resilience against future global supply disruptions. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Targeting; Central Bank Credibility; Supply Shocks |
| Date: | 2026–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/103 |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Job-to-job mobility is a natural feature of dynamic economies, but low geographic mobility, geographic mismatches between jobs and workers, or skills gaps can be barriers to job transitions. This paper examines the dual role of both skills and geography in facilitating job transitions, with a focus on the green transition. Using online job postings and labour force survey data from Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States, this paper develops a skills-based measure of occupational proximity to assess career pathways and presents evidence on the effectiveness of this tool in predicting job transitions. This tool is then used to examine feasible career pathways, in terms of skills and local demand, for both vulnerable workers and in-demand green occupations. |
| Keywords: | green transition, job-to-job mobility, online job vacancies, skills |
| Date: | 2026–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaaa:2026/06-en |
| By: | Marie Sciaccitano (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France); Lionel Nesta (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France; OFCE, Sciences Po Paris, France; SKEMA Business School, France) |
| Abstract: | We examine how income growth reshapes the composition of household consumption between green and non-green goods across countries. Using harmonized data on Environmental Goods and Services (EGS) for 138 countries over 1995–2015, we measure green consumption as expenditure on goods and services explicitly designed to prevent or reduce environmental degradation and estimate a non-linear environmental Engel curve. Green consumption behaves as a luxury at low income levels but progressively transitions toward a necessity as income rises. We further show that income elasticities of green consumption are systematically higher than those of non-green consumption, revealing income-driven composition effects in the consumption basket. These non-homothetic demand patterns imply that income growth systematically shifts household expenditure toward or away from goods intended to reduce environmental pressures, with important policy implications. Applying our estimates to a stylized Climate Fund redistribution, we show that accounting for heterogeneous income elasticities changes its predicted outcome. Relative to the homothetic benchmark with unit elasticities, the response of global green consumption remains limited, whereas the increase in global non-green consumption is substantially larger. |
| Keywords: | Measurement of green consumption, income elasticities, environmental Engel curve, luxury & necessity goods and services, climate policy |
| JEL: | E01 E21 Q5 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2026-15 |
| By: | Dennis Gaus; Heike Link |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a systematic analysis of German car drivers’ refuelling behaviour. A dataset combining population-representative individual-level GPS-tracking and survey information with data on fuel prices is used to identify 922 refuelling stops between April and December 2023. Besides a discussion of the conducted data processing and cleaning steps, the paper provides insights into German fuel price developments and the competition situation of gas stations. The analysis of the identified refuelling trips shows that drivers most often refuel during shopping trips or on the way home and during times that are known for relatively low prices. The choice between available gas stations is predominantly based on proximity to the direct route, as drivers avoid detours even at the expense of higher costs. In the context of competition policy and market regulation, the findings suggest that the catchment area of gas stations is smaller than often assumed when defining the competition among gas stations. Nevertheless, the high density of gas stations in Germany provides consumers with a considerable choice set and gas stations with a competitive environment even in small geographic areas. |
| Keywords: | Gasoline markets, Refuelling, Consumer choice |
| JEL: | D12 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2166 |
| By: | Lana Friesen (School of Economics, University of Queensland); Ian MacKenzie (School of Economics, University of Queensland); Peiyao Shen (Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Basel, Peter-Merian-Weg 6, 4002 Basel, Switzerland.) |
| Abstract: | Markets are an increasingly popular regulatory choice to cost effectively control negative externalities. Traditionally, market designs have employed a cap-and-trade format that places an absolute limit on the quantity of emissions. In contrast, many new schemes—including the world’s largest in China—limit the aggregate emissions intensity of production. This article theoretically and experimentally compares intensity- and capbased markets. We design a novel laboratory experiment, where firms choose both output and allowance exchange. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, we find that employing an intensity-based market rather than an equivalent cap-and-trade scheme significantly increases aggregate output, average allowance prices, aggregate abatement, and decreases industry profits. Overall, both markets perform as expected and close to the cost effective allocation of pollution abatement but with lower levels of aggregate profit as high production costs types produce significantly more output than predicted. |
| Keywords: | auction, intensity-based, cap-and-trade, experiment |
| JEL: | C92 H23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:673 |
| By: | Alberto Chong (Georgia State University and Universidad del Pacifico); Erica Louis Mtenga (Department of Economics, University of Dar es Salaam and Environment for Development (EfD)) |
| Abstract: | We focus on the role of double taxation treaties on environmental quality, to our knowledge the first empirical study to do so. Tax treaties are primarily implemented to remove double taxation, which helps promote international trade and investment. However, they are also aimed to address tax evasion and avoidance, which tends to have the opposite effect. As a result, the environmental impact is unclear. Specifically, we exploit the variation in the effective dates of the United States tax treaties with emerging countries between 1990 to 2014 by applying difference-in-differences methods. We find that tax treaties significantly help reduce carbon dioxide emissions in emerging markets. This appears to be driven by the reduction in investments in pollution-intensive industries after tax treaty enactments. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2621 |
| By: | Grimaud, André; Lafforgue, Gilles; Rougé, Luc |
| Abstract: | Degrowth is often advocated as a response to the climate crisis, but its consistency with growth theory remains unclear. We develop an endogenous growth model of directed technical change and climate in which the economy relies on both a polluting fossil resource and a clean renewable alternative. We fully characterize the social optimum and show that accounting for climate damages may justify an initial phase of degrowth. Such a phase is more likely when fossil resources are abundant and fossil-oriented research is relatively inefficient. In all cases, long-run optimal growth remains positive. |
| Keywords: | degrowth; directed technical change; endogenous growth; social optimum; climate change. |
| JEL: | O33 O44 Q32 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:131735 |
| By: | Sirini Jeudy-Hugo; Leon Charles |
| Abstract: | The global stocktake (GST) is a periodic exercise to assess overall progress towards the goals of the Paris Agreement and inform efforts going forward. The first GST (GST1) concluded at COP28 in 2023 and set out signals to guide national action and international co-operation. The second GST (GST2) will begin at COP31 in 2026 and is expected to conclude at COP33 in 2028. Experience with GST1, including its impact on national and international efforts, is an important consideration. GST2 will take place in a significantly changed operating context, following the completion of the Paris Agreement’s first policy cycle and the pivot to implementation. GST2 will also face new challenges, including rising climate impacts, deepening geopolitical tensions and financial stress; while technological advances are creating new economic opportunities and momentum. Understanding these changes and how they can be managed will be important for delivering a successful GST2. This paper assesses the uptake of GST1 outcomes in national and international processes and presents lessons for GST2. It also explores how key shifts in the operating context could affect the design, conduct and impact of GST2. Finally, the paper identifies key considerations in preparing for GST2 in an age of implementation. |
| Keywords: | BTRs, Climate change, COP31, Global stocktake, NDCs, Paris Agreement, UNFCCC |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 Q58 F53 |
| Date: | 2026–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaab:2026/02-en |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan; Wolfe, Brooke; Cowan, Greer; Cohen, Adam; California Resilient and Innovative Mobility Initiative; University of California, Institute of Transportation Studies |
| Abstract: | The Mobility 10x Summit convened more than 200 leaders from state agencies, regional governments, academia, and industry to accelerate California’s transition toward a more resilient, equitable, and sustainable transportation system. As the capstone event of the Resilient and Innovative Mobility Initiative (RIMI)—a four‐year UC ITS research effort launched in 2021—the summit synthesized extensive research and practitioner insights across ten priority transportation topics, ranging from public transit to automation and carbon-neutraltransportation to equity, safety, and resilience.Across the opening and closing plenary discussions and nine breakout sessions, participants examined the structural challenges facing California’s transportation system: declining gas tax revenues, climate‐driven infrastructure damage, uneven public transit ridership recovery, inequitable access to mobility options, and rapid technological change. These challenges are converging at a moment when California must simultaneously meet ambitious climate goals, modernize its transportation funding model, and ensure that mobility systems work for all communities. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt95f869cp |
| By: | Harold, Brian; Rodier, Caroline PhD |
| Abstract: | Transportation access is a significant issue in low-income, rural, and otherwise underserved communities in the US, with few affordable and reliable alternatives to car ownership. Carsharing is one promising alternative to improve access among these communities. This study examined the implementation and outcomes of an electric vehicle carsharing service launched in Richmond, California by Míocar. The findings are based on surveys with members, an interview with senior Míocar staff, and an analysis of service utilization data provided by Míocar. The Richmond service experienced a variety of implementation problems related to limited space for vehicles and chargers, vandalism of vehicles and hubs, and transitions between funding sources that required the service to re-launch new vehicle hubs and interrupted the continuity of service. However, utilization of the service was strong (700 reservation hours, 4, 000 reservation miles) given its availability. Outcomes related to transportation equity and mode shifts, such as the value of carshare in improving mobility and reducing personal vehicle miles traveled were similar to those in Stockton and Tulare and Kern counties. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric vehicles, Vehicle sharing, Underserved communities, Transportation equity, Travel behavior, Surveys, Customer satisfaction |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6ff446dm |
| By: | Gammans, Matthew; Wang, Ming |
| Abstract: | This blog examines how proposed changes to the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit under the One Big Beautiful Bill may reshape incentives in U.S. biofuel markets. Comparing House and Senate proposals, we focus on three key changes: extending the credit’s duration, restricting eligible feedstocks to North America, and removing indirect land-use change (ILUC) emissions from carbon intensity calculations. While these revisions strengthen the competitiveness of domestic ethanol and soy-based renewable diesel, they also raise concerns about investment certainty, exclusion of foreign suppliers, and weakened environmental accounting. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade, Risk and Uncertainty, Supply Chain |
| Date: | 2025–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcbr:401337 |
| By: | Latif, Samuel; Siddiqui, Danish Ahmed |
| Abstract: | Purpose: This study investigates the role of green supply chain practices (GSCP), green training, collaboration, and innovation in driving sustainable performance within Pakistan's manufacturing sector. The research was undertaken to address a key gap in emerging economies, where sustainability strategies often remain compliance driven and their contribution to innovation and performance is underexplored. A theoretical framework was proposed contending that Internal (IGSCP) and external Green Supply Chain (GSC) Practices (EGSCP), as well as Green Training (GT) would enable GSC Collaboration (GSCC), enhance Sustainable Manufacturing (SM), and Environmental Process Integration (EPI). These will in turn increase Green Innovation (GI) ultimately leading towards a better triple bottom line i.e. Environmental (EP), Economic (ECOP), and Social Performance (SP). We also infer that the effect of GSCC, SM, EPI on GI is moderated by Green Self-Efficacy (GSE) in a way that higher level GSE will strengthen the above mentioned effect. Design/methodology/approach: Using a quantitative, cross-sectional design, data were collected from 385 supply chain professionals across multiple industries. The research employed a structured questionnaire adapted from prior validated scales, and SmartPLS 4 was used for analysis. Measurement model assessment confirmed reliability and validity, while structural equation modeling (SEM) tested direct, indirect, and moderating effects. Findings: Results reveal that external GSCP, green training, and collaboration significantly influence sustainable manufacturing. Green innovation emerged as the strongest mediator, positively driving environmental (β = 0.826), economic (β = 0.848), and social (β = 0.785) performance outcomes. Conversely, environmental process integration and internal GSCP showed weaker or non-significant effects, underscoring contextual barriers. Results indicate that external GSCP significantly improved environmental process integration and collaboration, while internal GSCP strongly enhanced process integration and sustainable manufacturing. Green training positively influenced collaboration and manufacturing, though it had a negative effect on process integration. Green innovation emerged as the strongest mediator, driving environmental (β = 0.826), economic (β = 0.848), and social (β = 0.785) outcomes. Collaboration and self-efficacy significantly supported innovation, but moderation effects of self-efficacy were non-significant. Sustainable manufacturing showed no direct effect on innovation. Overall, the model highlights innovation and collaboration as key pathways to sustainability. Originality/value: This study contributes by integrating NRBV and DCT to explain sustainability pathways in an underexplored context. It offers theoretical insights, empirical evidence, and practical recommendations for managers and policymakers to strengthen sustainability strategies in emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | Green supply chain practices, green training, green innovation, sustainable performance, PLS-SEM, Pakistan manufacturing |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341051 |
| By: | Guy Lalanne (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Directorate for Science, Technology, and Innovation); Antoine Dechezlepretre (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Directorate for Science, Technology, and Innovation); Won Hee Cho (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Directorate for Science, Technology, and Innovation) |
| Abstract: | Industrial policy has returned to the forefront of economic policy discussions, driven by the green and digital transitions, supply-chain resilience, and concerns about market concentration and strategic dependencies. This paper argues that the recent surge in industrial-policy discourse and announcements exceeds the expansion of measurable support. Semantic analyses of the Global Trade Alert database indicate a steep increase in announced measures (from 42 in 2010 to 1, 483 in 2022).<p> Using the OECD Quantifying Industrial Strategies (QuIS) database for 17 OECD economies from 2019 to 2023, the paper documents three stylized facts. First, spending through grants and tax expenditures rose by about 10 percent on average (from 1.39 percent to 1.59 percent of GDP), whereas support delivered via financial instruments declined slightly (from 0.97 percent to 0.87 percent of GDP). Second, industrial policy instruments are highly persistent, with limited entry and exit. Third, the observed targets of support have shifted, with expanded schemes related to fixed-capital investment, the green transition, R&D activities, energy costs, and SMEs, alongside reduced sectoral support.<p> The paper then sets out how to design and govern industrial policy using an OECD policy-cycle lens: a clear conceptual framework and objectives, coordination across policy actors and instruments, robust measurement and benchmarking, implementation capacity, and rigorous ex post evaluation. It concludes by emphasizing the need to strengthen evidence on beneficiaries, large-firm subsidies, and cross-border spillovers to ensure industrial policy supports productivity, resilience, and sustainable growth. |
| Keywords: | industrial policy; economic security; OECD; Quantifying Industrial Strategies; QuIS |
| JEL: | L52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:022555 |
| By: | Jafri, Syeda Rida zehra; Zehra, Qirat; Amin, Tanzeela; Khan, Sadia; Mussa, Saba; Siddiqui, Danish Ahmed |
| Abstract: | Purpose The present research looks into the relationship between Green Transformational Leadership (GTL) and Green Employee Performance (GEP) in the manufacturing industry of Pakistan (MIP), and this study also tests the mediating roles of Green Organizational Citizenship Behavior (G-OCB) and Green Work Engagement (GWE), in between of GTL and GEP respectively, and one moderating variable of Green Intellectual Capital (GIC). A cross sectional quantitative research design was utilized using survey data among employees in the manufacturing sector. Data analysis and hypothesis testing were conducted through Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) using SmartPLS 4. The findings validate the positive impact of GTL on GEP, and both G-OCB and GWE emerged as significant mediators. Surprisingly, GIC did not moderate the predictive strength of GTL on GEP. This is one of the pioneer studies to apply Social Learning Theory to explore green leadership in the Pakistani manufacturing industry. It delivers new understandings of the mechanisms of GTL on sustainable performance, highlighting the importance of voluntary employee behavior and psychological engagement with green issues. The findings provide useful insights for managers in creating constructs of leadership toward sustainability. Organizations ought to build up GTL as well as promote G-OCB and GWE to integrate environmental outcomes into employees' roles. Although GIC is a useful tool, its contribution to improving the impact on GTL may need additional strengthening in the Pakistani context. |
| Keywords: | Green Transformational Leadership, Green Organizational Citizenship Behavior, Green Intellectual Capital, Green Employee Performance |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341028 |
| By: | Collart, Lara; Desbureaux, Sébastien; Stoop, Nik; Verpoorten, Marijke; Kabakaba, Christelle |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence from a field study in the Democratic Republic of Congo showing that low-cost heat‑retention bags can reduce household charcoal use and spending by about 40%, offering a highly cost‑effective clean cooking solution with adoption shaped by households’ ability to plan meals. |
| Keywords: | Kivu, charcoal, energy, DRCongo, DRC, heat retention bags |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:wpaper:2026.03 |
| By: | Costella, Cecilia; Okamura, Yuko; Urteaga, Emilio; Shalash, Nada |
| Abstract: | As climate and environmental challenges increasingly threaten livelihoods worldwide, some countries are turning to public works programs (PWPs) to confront them. This has given rise to “green public works”—PWPs that combine social assistance with environmental and climate objectives, such as protecting ecosystems and strengthening household and community resilience. Drawing on a review of twelve green PWPs, this note outlines their innovative features, including new types of assets and activities such as water infrastructure upgrades, protection against natural disasters and ecosystems restoration. It concludes by highlighting the benefits and challenges of green PWPs and ways to address them. |
| Date: | 2025–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:207145 |
| By: | Johansson de Silva, Sara; Moessinger, Martin; Santos, Indhira Vanessa |
| Abstract: | Countries in Eastern and Central Europe and Central Asia (ECA) are increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which are escalating in both frequency and severity, and disrupting human capital—the health, skills, and productivity of individuals— across multiple domains. However, there has been a lack of systematic documentation of these impacts in ECA countries, limiting opportunities for evidence-based policy making. This paper pulls together information on climate change and human development from a variety of sources including news media, humanitarian sources, gray literature and academic research. The evidence collected shows clearly that climate change is leading to adverse health outcomes, disrupting education, reshaping job markets, and driving displacement across ECA, and is affecting vulnerable groups more than others. The paper and its accompanying database represent an initial step in filling this knowledge gap, providing a resource that can support targeted, data-driven policy responses essential to fostering resilient human capital in the region. |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:202713 |
| By: | Rajashri Chakrabarti; Thu Pham; Beckett Pierce; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy |
| Abstract: | In this post, we use the inaugural release of our regional consumer spending indicators to ask whether these patterns hold for a significant portion of the Second District, and how regional spending patterns by income have been similar to or different from the national patterns we documented earlier. We find similar K‑shaped patterns in both retail and gas spending in our region as we do in the nation, with the K‑shaped pattern in gasoline in response to the recent gas price shock being more pronounced in the region. |
| Keywords: | inequality; K-shaped economy; retail spending; Second District; gasoline |
| JEL: | D31 Q4 R1 |
| Date: | 2026–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:103316 |
| By: | Takashi HATTORI; Pin-Chiao MAO |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how Taiwan, an outsider to the international climate regime, has adopted international climate change norms from the late 1980s through the early 2020s. Drawing on primary government documents, it traces the development of Taiwan's climate change policy through successive international milestones — the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol, the Copenhagen Accord, and the Paris Agreement. Despite being excluded from climate-related treaties and agreements as a non-member of the United Nations, Taiwan has consistently aligned its policy formation with international norms, progressively building institutional capacity, enacting and revising legislation, formulating policy guidelines, and independently developing and publishing its own NAMAs, INDC, and NDCs. This policy development direction has maintained its fundamental trajectory across successive administrations — from Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian through Ma Ying-jeou, Tsai Ing-wen, and Lai Ching-te — demonstrating a distinctive Taiwanese pattern of norm adoption under the structural constraint of non-party status. The findings of this paper show that insiders and outsiders to international regimes operate under different logics of norm adoption. By advancing the proposition that "strategic legitimation"— rather than internalization through socialization—serves as the primary pathway of norm adoption for outsiders, this paper contributes to extending the scope of norm lifecycle theory. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:26006 |
| By: | Javier Aliaga Lordemann (Investigador asociado de INESAD); Arjun C. Bhattacharyya (Economista CEEI) |
| Abstract: | La escalada del conflicto entre Estados Unidos e Irán ha reintroducido un foco de inestabilidad en el mercado petrolero internacional, elevando no sólo el precio del crudo, sino también las primas de refinación, los costos logísticos y la incertidumbre sobre el abastecimiento energético global. Este escenario es particularmente preocupante para Bolivia, dada su elevada dependencia de importaciones de diésel y gasolinas, la escasez de divisas y la rigidez de los precios internos de los combustibles. En este documento se aplica a Bolivia un modelo de transmisión encadenada, basado en el modelo de Bhattacharyya (2024), que vincula el shock energético externo con el mercado cambiario y las principales variables macroeconómicas. El modelo permite evaluar cómo el aumento del costo de importación de combustibles, combinado con un mayor tipo de cambio efectivo, amplía la brecha entre el precio económico y el precio regulado, elevando el subsidio implícito y deteriorando la posición fiscal, cambiaria y macrofinanciera del país. Los resultados muestran que la persistencia del shock es más importante que su magnitud puntual. En el caso de la gasolina, de persistir el conflicto, la paridad de importación puede aumentar entre 13% y 60% hacia junio, mientras el subsidio mensual puede subir entre 67% y más de 100% según el escenario. En diésel, que constituye la principal fuente de vulnerabilidad, la paridad puede incrementarse hasta 53%. Aun en escenarios de corrección parcial, el costo de reposición del diésel permanece por encima del precio interno al cierre del año, convirtiendo al subsidio en una fuente persistente de presión sobre reservas, déficit, deuda e inflación. |
| Keywords: | precio del petróleo, subsidio a los combustibles, diésel, tipo de cambio efectivo, restricción externa, Bolivia |
| JEL: | Q43 E62 F31 H63 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adv:wpaper:202602 |
| By: | Liu, Jingshi (Joyce) (Bayes Business School, City St. George's, University of London); Tatavarthy, Aruna Divya (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this research we uncover a tidy=sustainable association, which informs consumers’ evaluations and decisions. Across ten studies (N=2700), we find that consumers judge tidy (versus untidy) places, as well as objects within those places, to be more sustainable. We posit that consumers develop this learnt association because of the link through the multi-faceted concept of minimalism, which encompasses aspects related to aesthetics (as represented in spatial tidiness) and consumption (with impact sustainability outcomes). Supporting this mechanism, we show that spatial tidiness increases perceptions of minimalistic consumption practices—where consumers perceive tidy spaces as reflecting reduced number of possessions and mindful consumption—which in turn increases sustainability evaluations. Importantly, we show that the tidy=sustainable association operates bidirectionally, is amplified among consumers with higher minimalism values, and has downstream consequences on purchase, recommendation, and joint consumption decisions. |
| Keywords: | Sustainability; household; minimalism; aesthetics; consumption |
| JEL: | D10 H31 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2026_005 |