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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Richard Green; David Newbery |
| Keywords: | Renewable electricity support schemes, auctions, curtailment, locational pricing |
| JEL: | L94 Q28 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2607 |
| By: | Cameron Barrett |
| Abstract: | The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a broad package of federal spending and tax policies signed into law in July 2025, spells trouble for the residential solar industry. |
| Keywords: | energy; solar; tax credits |
| Date: | 2025–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:102178 |
| By: | Cameron Barrett; Kunal Patel; Michael D. Plante |
| Abstract: | Texas is now the top state for utility-scale solar power generation capacity. However, developers of new solar projects face a changing operating environment, one lacking strong federal policy support but also featuring cost-boosting tariffs on imported solar module components. |
| Keywords: | solar; Texas |
| Date: | 2026–02–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:102573 |
| By: | Garrett Golding |
| Abstract: | As ERCOT forecasts accelerated load growth due to anticipated data center construction and electrification trends, the current generation mix and market design should garner increased scrutiny. |
| Keywords: | electricity; solar; batteries; Texas |
| Date: | 2025–01–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:99476 |
| By: | Garrett Golding; Reid Taylor |
| Abstract: | Many Texas residents remain skeptical about the reliability of the electric grid since massive dayslong outages in February 2021. Notably, the power supply situation has since improved, with capacity added over the past two years, primarily from solar and a tripling of battery storage capacity. |
| Keywords: | batteries; electricity; energy; solar; Texas |
| Date: | 2025–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:102075 |
| By: | Cameron Barrett |
| Abstract: | Retail electricity rates are higher in California than Texas, but electricity cost accounts for a lower share of household budgets in California. |
| Keywords: | California; electricity prices; Texas |
| Date: | 2026–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:103083 |
| By: | Alhajraf, Salem |
| Abstract: | Kuwait ranks as the 10th largest exporter of crude oil, holding 7% of the world’s proven oil reserves, which are estimated at 101.5 billion barrels. Additionally, it is 30th in terms of gas reserves, with 1, 784 billion cubic meters. The oil industry plays a vital role in Kuwait’s economy, accounting for approximately 90% of government revenue and 95% of total exports. A significant portion of the annual fiscal budget is dedicated to covering wages and subsidies, which together account for over 80% of the 2024–25 fiscal budget. Over the past 15 years, accumulated subsidies have reached $213 billion (KD 65.2 billion), with energy subsidies comprising nearly 54% of this total. This study proposes three scenarios for reforming electricity subsidies in the residential sector, which accounts for 34% of annual electricity demand. The findings suggest that reforming electricity subsidies in this sector could lead to substantial savings for the Ministry of Electricity and Water Resources and Engineering (MEWRE) budget without negatively affecting lowto mid-income families. The recovery of annual fuel costs is projected to range from 30% to 63%, depending on the reform scenario implemented, compared to only a 6% recovery rate under the current subsidy policy. The study concludes with several policy recommendations for a fair and equitable reform of electricity subsidies in the residential sector and suggests expanding the research to include other consumer sectors, such as investment, commercial and industrial sectors. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 E6 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138303 |
| By: | Restrepo, Laura; Parés Olguín, Francisco; Ramji, Aditya; Bastida, Eduardo; Rivera, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Este reporte presenta los resultados de una encuesta colaborativa de la industria y una iniciativa de investigación aplicada sobre la electrificación de flotas de vehículos comerciales ligeros (LCV, por sus siglas en inglés) en México. Realizado por el Global South Center for Clean Transportation (GSC) de UC Davis, el estudio recopiló respuestas de más de 80 empresas en todo el país, con mayor representación de Ciudad de México (CDMX), Estado de México, Guanajuato y Nuevo León. Los resultados revelan un panorama empresarial en el que muchas operaciones ya presentan condiciones favorables para la electrificación de flotas, aunque persisten barreras financieras y de infraestructura. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1570t84x |
| By: | Sandrine Levasseur (OFCE, Studies Department, Sciences Po Pari) |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EVs) in the EU face growing turbulence as shrinking consumer subsidies coincide with intensified competition from lower-cost Chinese manufacturers. Recent EU measures - higher tariffs on Chinese EVs and a strategy to reinforce the full industrial value chain - aim to safeguard Europe's automotive capabilities. Yet the easing of CO2 rules for combustion engines and the possible 2026 review of the 2035 phase out date illustrate the challenge of balancing ecological transition, industrial resilience, and household purchasing power. This paper argues for an "electrification shock" to accelerate scale and reduce costs rather than slowing the transition. Demand-side priorities include adapting subsidies to national energy-price conditions, requiring public and corporate fleets to integrate a minimum share of EVs, and ensuring the availability of affordable entry-level models. On the supply side, large-scale support for European battery production and sustained tariff protection are essential to narrow the cost gap with China, while partnerships with Chinese firms must secure genuine technology transfers and protect employment. Such measures must be anchored in a stable and predictable regulatory trajectory, as policy reversals risk deterring investment and slowing the decarbonisation of road transport. |
| Keywords: | Electric vehicles, decarbonisation, EU, China, automotive industry, battery |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:studie:104-2026 |
| By: | Lutz Kilian; Michael D. Plante; Alexander W. Richter; Xiaoqing Zhou |
| Abstract: | Recent research quantifies the impact of 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation and household inflation expectations under a range of scenarios. Under a plausible scenario, 2026 fourth-quarter-over-fourth quarter headline personal consumption expenditures inflation would increase by 0.6 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | gasoline; inflation; oil; prices |
| Date: | 2026–04–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:103086 |
| By: | Owen Kay; Lutz Kilian; Reid Taylor |
| Abstract: | Even a modest data center boom could put upward pressure on retail electricity prices, impacting PCE inflation. |
| Keywords: | data centers; electricity; inflation |
| Date: | 2026–03–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:102868 |
| By: | Lutz Kilian; Michael D. Plante; Alexander W. Richter |
| Abstract: | Notwithstanding the attention geopolitical events in oil markets have attracted, we find that geopolitical oil price risk is unlikely to generate sizable recessionary effects. |
| Keywords: | energy; oil prices; international economics |
| Date: | 2025–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:99566 |
| By: | Lutz Kilian |
| Abstract: | Interest has recently increased in the question of whether the destabilization of inflation during the 1970s might repeat itself in the 2020s. |
| Keywords: | inflation; monetary policy; oil |
| Date: | 2026–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:102856 |
| By: | Lutz Kilian; Michael D. Plante; Alexander W. Richter |
| Abstract: | The ongoing military conflict between Iran and the United States and Israel has raised concerns about a major disruption of global oil supplies driven by geopolitical events. This conflict has involved attacks on oil infrastructure in neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. |
| Keywords: | oil |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:102957 |
| By: | Isaiah Spellman; Xiaoqing Zhou |
| Abstract: | While hostilities between Iran and Israel ended quickly in June 2025 without a major oil supply disruption, it is worthwhile to explore the impact on inflation and inflation expectations if this geopolitical event had turned out differently. |
| Keywords: | energy; inflation; international economics |
| Date: | 2025–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:101537 |
| By: | Diego Dessi; Simona Iammarino; Stefano Usai |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the European Union (EU)’s strategy for securing Critical Raw Materials (CRMs) within the framework of Open Strategic Autonomy (OSA). As the green and digital transitions escalate global demand, the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) establishes ambitious 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing, and recycling to reduce reliance on concentrated foreign suppliers. The study critically evaluates the EU’s main policy targets against the natural endowment of Strategic Raw Materials (SRMs) through global comparisons and subnational mapping at the NUTS-2 level. Findings indicate that European SRM resources are generally below global averages and highly concentrated in specific regions, predominantly in the Nordic countries and the Iberian Peninsula. We argue that CRMA’s top-down approach risks overlooking regional capabilities, geological constraints, and social responses from the communities involved. The paper suggests that without integrating place-based approaches and fostering equitable international interregional partnerships, the current strategy may undermine the EU’s pursuit of the targets of current industrial strategies for competitiveness and technological sovereignty. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2606 |
| By: | Gostlow, Glen; Chan, Tiffanie; Higham, Catherine; Sato, Misato; Setzer, Joana; Venmans, Frank |
| Abstract: | Climate litigation is growing in scale and complexity, yet its financial consequences remain poorly understood. We study how investors perceive climate litigation as a financial risk u sing a global survey of 811 equity investors and analysts. Most respondents regard climate litigation as financially material but they differ systematically in how and when they believe it matters. Many associate financial relevance with early-stage events such as media coverage or case filing, well before any court judgment, and they differ in the sectors they view as most exposed and in the legal channels they find most concerning. We recover latent dimensions of belief variation, and relate them to observable investor characteristics. We identify two dimensions - Litigation Salience and Risk Type Prioritization - which give rise to three investor profiles: Unconcerned, Regulatory-focused, and Physical/Litigation-focused. The two concerned groups relate litigation to climate in distinct ways: the former sees litigation and policy as complements, while the latter see them as substitutes, expecting litigation to arise from failures to regulate. Observable investor characteristics explain part but not all of this variation. Our findings show that disagreement over climate litigation is structured and economically meaningful suggesting it may be reducible through improved disclosure on firms’ climate litigation exposures. |
| Keywords: | climate litigation; investor beliefs; survey |
| JEL: | G32 K29 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–04–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138056 |
| By: | Falagiarda, Matteo; Ongena, Steven; Scopelliti, Alessandro; Beyene, Winta |
| Abstract: | Transitioning to a sustainable economy and reducing air pollution hinge on appropriate economic incentives and financing conditions. The auto loan market offers a prime setting, as lenders’ credit terms can either discourage or incentivize the purchase of high-pollution vehicles. Using loan-level data, we examine how captive and independent banks adjust lending conditions in response to information and regulatory shocks affecting diesel vehicles. Exploiting the 2015 diesel emissions scandal and the introduction of local circulation restrictions, we show that lending responses differ systematically across lender types, with captive banks tending to weaken, rather than reinforce, the effectiveness of environmental regulation for air pollution. JEL Classification: G21, G51, Q53, Q58 |
| Keywords: | captive banks, car circulation restrictions, car loans, diesel emissions scandal, independent banks |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263228 |
| By: | Pablo Garcia Sanchez; Olivier Pierrard |
| Abstract: | Recent empirical evidence reveals an income gradient in support for climate action: individuals in wealthier countries are less willing to pay, as a percentage of their income, than those in poorer countries. What explains this gradient, and what does it imply for international cooperation to protect the Earth’s climate? We answer these questions using a heterogeneous-country integrated assessment model formulated as a mean field game and calibrated to historical economic and climate data. Poorer countries, facing higher marginal utility of consumption, cut consumption less to cushion the decline in capital accumulation caused by climate damages. As a result, they suffer larger relative losses from climate change over time and gain more from mitigation, making them more inclined to accept a global carbon tax. This gradient has stark implications for cooperation: even when a carbon tax large enough to contain temperature increases benefits most countries, the richest might oppose. Redistributing global carbon tax proceeds uniformly across countries or recycling them as green investment subsidies need not overcome this reluctance. |
| Keywords: | Neoclassical Growth Model; Mean Field Game; Climate Policy |
| JEL: | C61 H23 Q50 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcl:bclwop:bclwp205 |
| By: | Dietz, Simon; Hastreiter, Nikolaus |
| Abstract: | Corporate commitments to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by around the middle of the century have spread rapidly in recent years and are now a prominent feature of corporate climate strategy. These targets are often used to judge corporate climate leadership and shape engagement with investors and other stakeholders. Yet it is unclear whether these targets lead to meaningful near-term change or are largely symbolic. In this paper, the authors address this issue by examining whether firms that adopt long-term net zero targets subsequently reduce their carbon emissions or strengthen their climate-related management and governance. Drawing on multiple datasets on emissions and corporate climate practices, and comparing firms that have adopted net zero targets with those that have not, the authors assess how companies change before and after making these commitments. The results show little evidence that adopting a long-term net zero target leads to large or immediate emissions cuts, or to broad changes in climate governance. However, the findings do not support the view that these commitments are purely empty promises. Carbon emissions estimates are consistent with gradual reductions, while some of the more demanding and forward-looking management practices improve around the time of adoption. Overall, the paper suggests that corporate net zero targets are best understood as part of a gradual process of organisational change, rather than as either purely symbolic gestures or immediate drivers of transformation. |
| Keywords: | carbon emissions; corporate governance; corporate sustainability; net zero target |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138242 |
| By: | Garrett Golding; Claire Jeffress; Xiaohan Zhang |
| Abstract: | Better understanding of the workforce implications of rising electricity demand, particularly at the state and local levels, is critical to planning and anticipating its economic and policy impacts. |
| Keywords: | energy; jobs |
| Date: | 2025–08–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:101538 |
| By: | Sabrine Emran |
| Abstract: | The call for private finance mobilization received an answer in 2024, with private capital accounting for 66% of total flows in climate finance, while still reaching a record level. This flow of private finance represents a structural shift that can both be considered as a significant achievement and an underexamined governance risk. This paper argues that the growth of private climate finance, while real and consequential, does not always directly serve climate objectives. Private capital is fundamentally risk-averse, return-driven, and structurally indifferent to the adaptation needs, geographic equity, and democratic accountability that a credible climate transition requires. As public governance architecture contracts, most sharply following the United States' 2025 withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, private actors have assumed increasing authority over four core governance functions: allocating capital, pricing risk, setting standards, and shaping narratives. That authority is exercised without democratic mandate, transparent methodology, or enforceable accountability. The paper evaluates the three dominant mechanisms through which private climate governance currently operates: voluntary frameworks such as ICMA's Green Bond Principles, TCFD, and SBTi; regulatory extraterritoriality through instruments such as the EU's Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive and California's SB-219; and MDB-intermediated blended finance. Each model addresses a real need for governance. None is sufficient. Taken together, they leave three critical gaps unaddressed: no reliable mechanism to direct capital toward adaptation and the most vulnerable geographies; no democratic accountability to the communities most affected by transition decisions; and no coordinating architecture to make the three models coherent and mutually reinforcing. The paper concludes that closing these gaps requires treating climate governance not as a technical question of instrument design, but as a political question of who holds authority over where capital flows and on whose terms. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb23_26 |
| By: | Jabar, Rudeena; Patil, Arohi; Sharma, Anjali; Chatterjee, Juhi |
| Abstract: | Just transition, an integral part of climate action, has become increasingly popular in both academic discussions and global climate negotiations. In 2022, the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP) was established with the aim of discussing pathways to just transition in a climate-constrained world. However, the negotiations at JTWP have been slow due to fundamental disagreements in the interpretation of just transition between the Global North and Global South countries. The just transition (JT) scholarship has paid limited attention to explain the reasons for the starkly different understandings of JT across countries. In this paper, we first review academic literature on JT frameworks to understand whether and how they discuss the tensions that emerge when applying JT theories in practice. As we find limited academic literature on this topic, we develop a conceptual framework that focuses on highlighting and understanding the tensions that emerge in operationalizing academic JT frameworks in the real world. In particular, we focus on explaining tensions across different types of justice, geographical scales, and time. We then apply this framework to analyze JTWP negotiation proceedings. Our findings suggest that the existing justice frameworks do not consider the interactions between different types of justice, geographies, and time scales. This often leads them to ignore the tensions that could arise and the trade-offs that are involved in achieving a comprehensive vision of justice for all parts of the world at the same time. Through our framework, we are able to explore these tensions and explain the slow progress on JTWP negotiations. In the end, we provide examples to illustrate strategies that could be used to highlight and potentially resolve these tensions and, in turn, contribute to globally just low-carbon energy transitions. |
| Date: | 2026–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:aqg3v_v2 |
| By: | Luis Lopez; Jackson Owen; Nitzan Tzur-Ilan |
| Abstract: | Wildfire smoke pollution may significantly affect housing market activity in locations hundreds or even thousands of miles away from the fires. |
| Date: | 2024–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:98730 |
| By: | Saffar, Mohammed; Gonzalez Islas, Emilio |
| Abstract: | This report examines how three major European public financial institutions (PFIs) – Bpifrance, KfW and Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP) – mobilise private capital to accelerate climate action. It distills practical lessons for PFIs and governments seeking to scale private investment for the green transition. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138142 |
| By: | Rick van der Ploeg; Anthony J. Venables |
| Abstract: | Using a dynamic model in which heterogenous consumers make forward-looking choices between brown and green durable goods, we establish conditions under which peer effects lead to multiple steady states. There is a critical threshold that policy needs to exceed to create a feasible transition path between states. We analyse the feasibility, speed, and cost of transition. Pigouvian policies internalising the externalities with climate damage and peer effects may be insufficient to lead to a green transition; even if they are, they may not yield net benefits. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, multiple steady states, green transition |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12647 |
| By: | Fernando E. Alvarez; David Argente; Joyce Chow; Diana Van Patten |
| Abstract: | Data centers are the physical infrastructure behind cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and enterprise software. The rapid diffusion of artificial intelligence (AI) is intensifying demand for compute, accelerating investment in data centers, and raising concerns about the local economic and environmental footprint of these facilities. Their expansion creates a local policy tradeoff. A data center can bring capital investment, construction activity, and specialized employment, but it can also increase demand for electricity, land, and grid capacity. This paper studies these effects at the U.S. county level. We assemble a facility-level panel of global data centers with precise coordinates, scale metrics, and annualized revenue. We map facilities to U.S. counties and combine them with County Business Patterns, county-level IRS income, county-level house prices, and electricity prices. To address endogenous siting, we instrument for data center growth using two shift-share instruments, which leverage pre-existing proximity to InterTubes long-haul fiber nodes and the 1980 county share of U.S. urban college population as shares, and both Chinese and rest-of-the-world data center revenue growth as shifts. The IV estimates show positive effects on total employment, data-processing employment, construction employment, establishments, house prices, and electricity prices at different horizons after data center growth. We also find positive effects on tax returns, adjusted gross income, and wages, while annual payroll responds less robustly. The results suggest that data centers create measurable local activity, increase house prices, and affect local electricity markets through higher prices. |
| JEL: | D8 O3 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35194 |
| By: | Rim Berahab |
| Abstract: | Climate policy is increasingly reshaping the conditions under which firms participate in international markets. As some jurisdictions introduce carbon border adjustments, lifecycle emissions standards, and supply-chain traceability requirements, market access is starting to be made conditional on verifiable characteristics of production processes, such as carbon intensity, embedded emissions, and input sourcing, rather than solely on product characteristics or prices. This paper examines how these emerging climate-linked measures operate as eligibility regimes that require firms to measure, document, and verify embedded emissions and supply-chain attributes, using standardized methodologies. To clarify the economic logic of these mechanisms, the paper first makes a functional comparison with rules of origin, highlighting common features related to eligibility criteria, documentation, and supply-chain tracing. It then analyzes the European Union Batteries Regulation, which links market participation to lifecycle carbon-footprint disclosure and traceability, and the United States Inflation Reduction Act, which aimed to reshape supply chains through localization incentives and manufacturing subsidies. The paper finally examines the strategic responses available to economies outside the main standard-setting blocs, including regulatory alignment, dual compliance across regulatory regimes, and market reorientation toward less-demanding jurisdictions. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rtrade:pp_11-26 |
| By: | Yves Jégourel |
| Abstract: | On the global commodities markets, 2025 largely followed the trajectory set in 2024, with a record rise in precious metals prices against a backdrop of ever-increasing uncertainty, and base metals whose performance was once again largely determined by mining supply levels. On the softs side, cocoa and coffee retreated from past record prices, while the cereals market experienced relative price stability between 2024 and 2025, against a backdrop of abundant harvests worldwide. Oil and gas prices, for their part, have somewhat detached from geopolitical factors and returned to economic fundamentals. With supply plentiful, they ended 2025 on a downward trend, despite a sharp rebound at the end of January 2026 due to a cold start to winter. While commodities are known to be one of the most powerful barometers of the state of the world, this was not the case in 2025. In this paradoxical situation, oil prices hardly reacted to the major tensions in the Middle East, the intensification of the war in Ukraine, or the American intervention in Venezuela. Gold, on the other hand, reflected this. In a highly unstable economic and political environment, one thing is certain: the world has now fully entered the age of metals. In a race to secure supplies of strategic metals, the United States is now pulling out all the stops to try and catch up with China. Beyond the many crises and conflicts, it is the confirmation of the end of a rule-based international order and the return of spheres of influence that will make 2025 a pivotal year. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb13_26_1 |
| By: | Maria Alsina-Pujols; Isabel Hovdahl |
| Abstract: | We study how complementarity reshapes innovation incentives and the effectiveness of policies aimed at directing technological transitions. By incorporating energy storage into a macro-climate model, we show that when this enabling technology lags behind renewables, advances in renewable technology can paradoxically reduce incentives for clean innovation. We analytically characterize this novel indirect path dependency effect, which provides a new explanation for the post-2010 collapse in renewable patenting. Calibrated to the U.S. economy, we find that omitting storage overestimates climate policy effectiveness, optimal policy should prioritize storage over renewables, and halving the storage productivity gap increases annual welfare by 1%. |
| Keywords: | directed technical change, energy storage, climate policy, path dependency, energy transition |
| JEL: | O33 O44 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12664 |
| By: | Jackson, James; Larsen, Mathias |
| Abstract: | As China increasingly leads the world in green industries, the country is a critical case for the debate on climate change in political economy. While climate change is now less of a blind spot than previously, the debate is obstructed by an inadequate grasp of the complexities of China, stemming from the disciplinary isolation of ‘China studies’ and the political isolation of the country itself. In this commentary, we address this problem by presenting a structured approach to understanding the case of China. We distill insights from different literature to offer an account of the political economy of China’s green transition, centering on three key insights. As umbrella terms that work as shorthands for summarizing the three literatures, we propose that China can be understood as: (1) ‘green authoritarianism’ – a political model that conceptualizes the political motives and processes underlying China’s climate governance. (2) ‘green state-steering’ - central-local-private relations that combine top-down and bottom-up approaches to advance climate priorities. (3) ‘green economic planning’ - an approach to industrial policy, such as the ‘Made In China 2025 Strategy’, that guides and organizes climate governance over time. Our intention is that these insights can help connect the scholarship on China with the scholarship on the political economy of climate change by facilitating non-China specialists in both drawing from and relating their work to the country. |
| Keywords: | China; climate change; Authoritarianism; Economic planning; green transition; Political economy |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–04–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138302 |
| By: | Otaviano Canuto |
| Abstract: | The U.S.–China technological rivalry has become a central axis of global economic and geopolitical competition. While the United States continues to lead in frontier innovation—most notably in advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence (AI)—China has consolidated strengths in large-scale implementation, manufacturing capacity, and control over critical segments of global supply chains. These advantages are especially visible in clean energy technologies and in the processing and refinement of critical minerals and rare earths. The rivalry now unfolds across multiple frontlines, extending beyond innovation itself to encompass infrastructure, energy availability, and technology deployment across the New South. Its outcome will depend less on breakthrough inventions alone than on each country’s capacity to integrate technology, industrial policy, and energy systems into cohesive national strategies. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb07_26 |
| By: | Brehm, Margaret E.; Brehm, Paul A.; Cassidy, Alecia; Cassidy, Traviss |
| Abstract: | Using a natural experiment in Indonesia, we estimate the separate economic effects of natural resource booms and shared resource revenue. Contrary to Dutch disease concerns, oil and gas booms promote manufacturing growth, and shared revenue does not harm local manufacturing firms. Shared revenue significantly raises local non-oil GDP, but resource booms do not. Supply-side factors help explain the results: shared revenue increases local population and firm entry, while resource booms do not. Oil and gas booms thus benefit local economies largely through shared revenue. Where the revenue is spent matters more for local growth than where the resources are extracted. |
| Keywords: | Growth, resource booms, decentralization, manufacturing firms, Indonesia, Dutch disease |
| JEL: | H77 O13 O14 Q32 Q33 |
| Date: | 2024–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128970 |
| By: | Arpita Ghosh (University of Exeter); Brendon McConnell (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Jaime Millán-Quijano (Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Date: | 2026–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:26/32 |
| By: | Jamhar, Jameel; Ramji, Aditya |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4m75p2hf |
| By: | Yves Jégourel |
| Abstract: | L’arrestation du président vénézuélien Nicolàs Maduro a suscité la sidération internationale en interrogeant sur le respect du droit international ; puis, fort logiquement, cette opération a conduit à maintes analyses tant sur les arguments politiques, sécuritaires et géostratégiques avancés par Washington que sur les ambitions sous-jacentes ayant présidé à cette décision sans réel précédent dans l’histoire récente. Outre la lutte contre le narcotrafic, c’est bien évidemment la question pétrolière qui a été posée en premier lieu, actant notamment des réserves supposément considérables du pays. L’extraordinaire difficulté à revenir aux records de production des décennies passées ne fait, pourtant, guère de doutes. Des interrogations se sont également portées sur la réalité des ressources minérales et des réserves minières du Venezuela, afin de répondre aux ambitions de sécurisation en métaux stratégiques des États-Unis. Or, coltan, bauxite et aluminium, la valorisation du potentiel vénézuélien reste, elle aussi, hypothétique. Une chose apparaît cependant certaine : du Venezuela à l’Ukraine en passant par le Groenland ou la République démocratique du Congo, la puissance américaine s’accompagne, outre la fameuse « doctrine Monroe », d’une « doctrine matières premières », pièce essentielle d’une stratégie expansionniste qui n’est pas sans rappeler la théorie des « sphères d’influence ». Les énergies fossiles y sont au moins tout aussi importantes que les ressources minérales stratégiques, où les déterminants économiques pourraient être secondaires et où la préemption par d’autres leviers que l’action commerciale n’est désormais plus exclue. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb06_26 |
| By: | Blanc, Corin |
| Abstract: | In response to rising urban air pollution, European cities have adopted Low Emission Zones (LEZs), restricting the most polluting vehicles. While effective in improving air quality, these policies remain controversial due to concerns over fairness and acceptability. This paper examines the impact of London’s 2021 and 2023 Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) expansions on subjective well-being (SWB). Using panel data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study and a staggered difference-in-differences design with individual and year fixed effects, we compare changes in life satisfaction among residents inside and outside the affected areas. We find that the 2021 expansion led to a decline in life satisfaction by approximately 0.4 points – which doubles for low-income households – with no evidence of pre-existing differential trends. We do not detect statistically significant effects within the available post-treatment window on Londoners living in the expanded zone in 2023. We explore the mechanisms driving this decline and find that the well-being loss is fundamentally mediated by car dependency and transport mode availability. While the policy increased reliance on public transport, we show that a higher accessibility to public transport reduces the well-being decline of Londoners. These findings suggest that LEZs can generate short-term welfare costs despite achieving behavioural change, highlighting the need for complementary measures to enhance social acceptability. |
| Keywords: | Subjective well-being, Air pollution, Low-emission zones, Difference-in-differences |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:docweb:2601 |
| By: | Yves Jégourel |
| Abstract: | The arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolàs Maduro caused international astonishment, raising questions about respect for international law. And, quite logically, the operation led to numerous analyses, both of the political, security and geostrategic arguments put forward by Washington, and of the underlying ambitions behind this decision, which has no real precedent in recent history. In addition to the fight against narco-trafficking, it was of course the oil issue that came first, noting the country's supposedly considerable reserves. However, there is little doubt that it will be extraordinarily difficult to return to the record production levels of past decades. Questions were also raised about the reality of Venezuela's mineral resources and mining reserves, in order to meet the United States' ambitions to secure strategic metals. But with coltan, bauxite and aluminium, the potential of Venezuela remains equally hypothetical. One thing is certain, however: from Venezuela to Ukraine, via Greenland and the Democratic Republic of Congo, American power is accompanied not only by the famous "Monroe Doctrine", but also by a "raw materials doctrine", an essential part of an expansionist strategy reminiscent of the theory of "spheres of influence". Fossil fuels are at least as important as strategic mineral resources, where economic determinants may be secondary, and where preemption by levers other than commercial action is no longer ruled out. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb06_26_1 |
| By: | Giovanna D'Adda; Simone Ferro; Tommaso Frattini; Alessio Romarri |
| Abstract: | Using large-scale high-granularity data from a food delivery platform and granular pollution and weather information, we study how PM2.5 fluctuations affect riders’ absenteeism, productivity, and accidents. Exploiting exogenous pollution variation from inverse boundary layer height, we find that higher pollution increases absenteeism for all workers and raises delivery times and accident rates only among (e-)bike riders, who must exert physical effort while working. Affected workers compensate productivity losses by working longer hours. Monetary incentives mitigate the effects on absenteeism but do not offset the decline in productivity and appear to exacerbate accident risk. |
| Keywords: | Air Pollution; Food Delivery Riders; Absenteeism; Labor Productivity; Workplace Safety |
| JEL: | H4 J28 Q52 |
| Date: | 2026–11–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:506 |
| By: | Zachariadis, Theodoros; Giannakis, Elias |
| Abstract: | Instability in global energy supply and fluctuating international oil and gas prices push European countries to reduce fuel import dependency through energy saving measures and faster deployment of renewable energy. Calculating the fuel import bill, as usually done to illustrate the impact of the continent’s energy dependency, offers only a partial picture of the challenge. This paper applies an economy-wide assessment for Cyprus, a country which greatly relies on imported fossil fuels but has made some progress towards decarbonisation. We combine energy, economic and trade statistics with technical calculations and find that renewables deployed in the last decade have already today contributed to very substantial net benefits of 469 million Euros at 2023 prices, leading to a benefit-cost ratio ranging between 11 and 19. Input-output modelling shows that economy-wide benefits have led to a cumulative additional value added of the order of 1.4 billion Euros’2023 during the decade 2015-2024, with a 0.5-1% GDP increase per year thanks to renewables investments and avoided fossil fuel imports. The approach presented here minimises the uncertainties and assumptions that are necessary to run more sophisticated economic models and can offer credible insights on the economic dividends of decarbonisation policies in any country, contributing also to improved energy security. |
| Keywords: | decarbonisation; energy policy; energy security; input-output analysis; renewable energy; trade balance |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138257 |
| By: | De Agostini Paola (European Commission - JRC); Trzcinski Kajetan (European Commission - JRC); Klenert David (European Commission - JRC); Weitzel Matthias (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This policy note provides a first assessment of the distributional impact of transport fuel price surge on EU household incomes following the conflict in Iran. It does so using the latest EUROMOD tax‑benefit microsimulation model and its Consumption Tax extension. Results are based on weekly Member State petrol and diesel price data reported to DG‑ENER (for 26 EU countries, Malta currently excluded due to missing price data). Price changes are measured as the difference between the most recent observation (23. March 2026) and the average pre-conflict price levels between 1. December 2025 and 23. February 2026. The framework isolates the fuel price shock’s incidence across the income distribution and assesses the extent to which recycling additional VAT revenues (e.g., via direct transfers or lower fuel duties) could cushion household impacts. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc146449 |
| By: | Michael Finus (University of Graz, Austria); Paolo Zeppini (Universite Cote d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France; Department of Economics, University of Bath, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | In a dynamic discrete choice model, we study the conditions under which a society transforms smoothly or abruptly at social tipping points to a sustainable lifestyle with less environmentally harmful consumption. Agents act either selfishly or prosocially, differing in how much they internalise environmental harm. Pro-social behaviour implies reduced consumption but yields a "warm-glow" reward. Choices are shaped by personal and social norms that evolve with aggregate behaviour. We consider also snobbism and exclusivity as well as state-dependent warm-glow, associated with various types of social crowding-out effects. We analyse long-run equilibria and social tipping points associated with equilibria bifurcations. Generally, behavioural changes can be associated with a positive and negative decision feedback. Strong social norms and social interaction generate multiple equilibria and social tipping points with a positive feedback and periodic dynamics with negative feedback. We show that marginal changes of parameters can lead to regime changes at social tipping points and many policy interventions may lead to unintended outcomes. For example, increasing environmental awareness can paradoxically lead to higher consumption and environmental damage due to marginal but also abrupt shifts in lifestyle choices. |
| Keywords: | discrete choice, social interactions, sustainable consumption, transitions, warm-glow |
| JEL: | C62 D62 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2026-08 |
| By: | Hafez Ghanem |
| Abstract: | In response to developing countries’ dissatisfaction with the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) of $300 billion, which was decided at the Twenty-Ninth Conference Of the Parties (COP29) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, in 2024 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the COP29 and COP30 presidencies promised to develop a roadmap to achieve $1.3 trillion in external climate finance that developing countries need, and to present it at COP30 in Belém, Brazil[1]. The two presidents delivered on this promise and the ‘roadmap’ was presented on November 5, 2025. It concludes with a strong message: “the science is clear, the resources exist, and the moral imperative is undeniable. What remains is the resolve to act…”. The two presidents believe that the $1.3 trillion target can be achieved if the international community has the resolve to act. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb03_26 |
| By: | Merendino, Alfonso; Monacelli, Tommaso |
| Abstract: | Using U.S. and Euro area data, we document that (i) the pass-through of energy prices to inflation is state-dependent - stronger when supply chain uncertainty is elevated – and (ii) in such states, energy prices become more informative about logistical conditions. We develop a model in which firms combine energy and a specialized input transported through a capacity-constrained transportation network. When congestion binds, energy remains available in local markets at a premium, whereas the specialized input is subject to delivery delays. Because energy prices reflect both raw energy shocks and transportation conditions, firms treat them as noisy signals of supply disruptions and update beliefs through Bayesian learning. This signal-extraction channel increases perceived marginal costs, generating an uncertainty wedge that amplifies and propagates energy shocks. Within a general-equilibrium New Keynesian model, the mechanism raises the impact elasticity and the persistence of inflation in response to transitory energy shocks. This challenges the conventional monetary policy prescription to “look through” supply disturbances. JEL Classification: E31, D83 |
| Keywords: | energy price shocks, incomplete information, inflation, pass-through, supply chain uncertainty, transportation shocks |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263230 |
| By: | Ruimeng Hu; Mike Ludkovski; Hezhong Zhang |
| Abstract: | We develop a stochastic game-theoretic model for intraday dispatch of grid-scale battery energy storage systems (BESSs). We assume that each BESS operator competitively manages her state-of-charge to maximize energy arbitrage revenues, driven by the endogenized electricity price that depends on the sum of the charging rates. We characterize the Nash equilibrium of the resulting finite-player linear-quadratic differential game with a shared stochastic driver, obtaining semi-explicit representations of equilibrium feedback controls and equilibrium prices both in the general heterogeneous and the simplified homogeneous BESS setting, via a system of Riccati equations. We then analyze competitive effects, including the marginal externality of additional BESS entering the market, the benefit of coordination and the corresponding market power of large operators, and supply effects from hybrid-type BESSs. We further study the asymptotic regime as the number of agents grows large. Our model provides a quantitative testbed to study the impact of decentralized BESS deployment on the grid and the resulting reduction in daily price spreads. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.01178 |
| By: | Maier Essinger Sofia; Riera Mallol Gemma (European Commission - JRC); Bornukova Kateryna (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "Over the past few years, with the recovery from the COVID-19 and the global energy crisis, EU households have faced sharp increases in the prices of necessities such as energy and food. These pressures compound a longer-term housing affordability crisis. Despite the abundance of indicators on income, energy and housing poverty, only a few studies have consistently addressed their interactions, showing strikingly little overlap among them. In this context, we use an adaptation of John Hills’ Low-Income High Cost (LIHC) indicator originally developed for the UK to consistently assess both energy and housing deprivations across all EU27 countries. This approach minimizes ""false positives"" by excluding households at the top of the income distribution who may have high energy or housing costs but are not genuinely deprived. Additionally, we examine whether middle-class households fall below poverty thresholds if they were to face median equivalised energy and housing expenditures, revealing a form of ""hidden poverty"" not captured by conventional income-based measures. Using this approach, we identify where in Europe these deprivations are most severe and which population groups are most affected. These findings can inform the design of more targeted poverty alleviation policies." |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202601 |
| By: | Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile; Lappe, Marie-Sophie; Manu, Ana-Simona; Rößler, Denise; Schupp, Fabian; Stalla-Bourdillon, Arthur |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of natural gas market shocks on gas market dynamics, inflation expectations and realized inflation in the Euro Area using a BVAR model. Our contribution lies in a novel identification strategy that distinguishes between various types of shocks of unprecedented detail, leverages weekly rather than monthly data, and extends the analysis to both market-based headline and core inflation expectations. We find that, although conceptually distinct, pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply shocks have comparable effects on realized variables such as gas prices and actual inflation. By contrast, LNG supply shocks play a more limited role in shaping inflation expectations. Precautionary demand and industrial demand shocks also emerge as important drivers of inflation dynamics. This reflects both the forward-looking nature of precautionary shocks, which capture changes in investor sentiment, and the broader macroeconomic relevance of industrial demand shocks, whose effects extend beyond the gas market. JEL Classification: C50, C54, E44, Q43 |
| Keywords: | demand shocks, gas price, inflation-linked swaps, local projections, supply shocks |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263227 |
| By: | Vedunka Kopecna (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & Charles University, Environment Center); Inaki Veruete Villegas (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & Charles University, Environment Center) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the long-term macroeconomic and environmental impacts of climate policies in the Czech Republic, a coal-dependent economy, under the EU´s Fit-for-55 package. Using a hybrid dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, we integrate a bottom-up electricity module with technology-specific detail and a discrete choice module capturing consumer preferences for vehicle technologies. The model, formulated as a mixed complementarity problem in GAMS, accounts for capacity constraints in power generation and endogenizes vehicle fleet evolution based on choice probabilities. We evaluate two scenarios: With Existing Measures (WEM), reflecting current policies, and With Additional Measures (WAM), which includes coal phase-out, expanded renewables, and the introduction of ETS2. Results show that WAM leads to more than 60% reduction in power sector CO2 emissions by 2040 and 80% battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption by 2050. However, green investments under WAM do not balance out structural shifts - especially in fossil-related sectors - negatively influencing GDP. This integrated top-down and bottom-up modeling approach offers a robust framework for evaluating economy-wide effects of climate action. Findings inform cost-effective and socially balanced decarbonization strategies for Czech and EU policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Hybrid CGE model; Green Transition; Climate policies; Energy and transport |
| JEL: | C68 D12 D58 H22 H23 Q43 Q52 R42 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2026_06 |
| By: | Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School, UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Aikaterini Karadimitropoulou (Department of Economics, University of Piraeus); Athanasios Triantafyllou (Audencia Business School) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the macroeconomic effects of commodity price uncertainty by explicitly accounting for comovement across commodity markets. Using quarterly realized volatilities of major agricultural, metals, and energy commodity prices, we estimate a hierarchical dynamic factor model that decomposes uncertainty into a global component, common to all commodities, and group-specific components capturing sectoral uncertainty. The estimated uncertainty factors are then embedded into country-specific Structural VAR models to assess the dynamic macroeconomic responses to uncertainty shocks through impulse response functions. We focus in particular on business investment and exports across a panel of advanced and emerging economies. Our results show that a global commodity price uncertainty shock generates sizable and persistent recessionary effects on investment and trade worldwide. Benchmark comparisons indicate that this global commodity uncertainty shock produces larger and more persistent macroeconomic contractions than standard uncertainty measures. Importantly, we show that, once global uncertainty is accounted for, commodity-specific uncertainty shocks exhibit differentiated effects. Increases in agricultural and metals price uncertainty lead to contractionary outcomes, whereas energy-specific uncertainty shocks generate positive short-run responses in investment and exports. These findings provide new empirical evidence that oil price uncertainty can be expansionary when it reflects sector-specific dynamics rather than global demand uncertainty. Overall, our framework offers a novel way to disentangle "bad" and "good" commodity price uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | Commodity prices, uncertainty shocks, comovement, recessionary effects, positive macroeconomic impact |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05607366 |
| By: | Adriana Camacho (CAF); Leonardo Gasparini (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Luis Laguinge (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP & CONICET); Jorge Puig (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP); Hernán Winkler (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | We study the responses of household electricity consumption to temperature changes, focusing on asymmetries between welfare deciles. Our analysis exploits a unique panel dataset for Peru that links household survey microdata with repeated administrative records on energy use and local temperature. Using fixed-effects models, we estimate how electricity consumption varies with temperature, highlighting the unequal capacity of households across income deciles to adapt to climate change. Based on this evidence, we propose and implement a novel measure of adaptive energy poverty, which captures households’ ability to respond to rising ambient temperatures through increased electricity consumption. |
| JEL: | I31 Q41 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0372 |
| By: | Blanc, Corin |
| Abstract: | Les Zones à Faibles Émissions (ZFE) visent à améliorer la qualité de l’air en limitant la circulation des véhicules les plus polluants dans les zones urbaines. Alors que leur suppression a récemment été votée par l’Assemblée nationale en France, cette note propose une synthèse de la littérature scientifique sur leurs effets environnementaux, sanitaires et sociaux. Les travaux empiriques montrent que les ZFE permettent effectivement de réduire les concentrations de polluants atmosphériques, notamment les particules fines et le dioxyde d’azote. Ces améliorations de la qualité de l’air s’accompagnent de bénéfices pour la santé, notamment une diminution de certaines maladies respiratoires et cardiovasculaires. Cependant, ces politiques peuvent également générer des coûts pour une partie de la population, en particulier pour les ménages à faibles revenus ou vivant dans des zones mal desservies par les transports publics, et éloignés des centres-villes dont l’accès se trouve restreint. En mobilisant les méthodes de l’économie du bonheur, nous analysons l’impact global de la politique sur le bien-être subjectif des individus à partir du cas de l’Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) de Londres. Nos résultats suggèrent que l’introduction de l’ULEZ s’accompagne à court terme d’une diminution de la satisfaction dans la vie, en particulier chez les travailleurs possédant une voiture et chez les individus vivant dans des zones faiblement dotées en transports publics. Ces résultats soulignent l’importance d’accompagner les politiques environnementales de dispositifs ciblés permettant de limiter leurs effets redistributifs négatifs. |
| Keywords: | Bien-être, Pollution, ZFE |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notobe:2611 |
| By: | Teresa Lackner (University of Graz, Austria); Stefan Nabernegg (University of Graz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | The decarbonization of the residential building sector requires large upfront investments in heating system replacement and thermal renovation that fall disproportionately on lower-income households. Faced with political constraints on carbon pricing and technology mandates, investment subsidies have become the main policy instrument. This paper analyzes the distributional effects and fiscal costs of this policy approach for Austria. We develop a microsimulation model that links household-level investment needs to landlord wealth distributions, allowing us to assign the incidence of subsidies and financial burden across homeowners and landlords within a unified empirical setting. We find total investment needs amount to 78-92 billion euros over the transition period to 2040 (approximately 1% of GDP annually), implying fiscal costs of 33-40 billion euros under the 2023 subsidy scheme. Despite a targeted low-income component, approximately 45% of subsidy outlays accrue to the top three income deciles. Net investment burdens remain strongly regressive when thermal renovation is required, exceeding three annual incomes for low-income single-family homeowners. We further document substantial horizontal disparities within income groups and show that Austrias fragmented housing law is a first-order determinant of investment feasibility in the multi-apartment (rental) sector. Addressing distributional and feasibility concerns under fiscal constraints may require a policy mix combining mandates, income-contingent transfers, liquidity-support instruments and housing law reform. |
| Keywords: | residential building decarbonization, distributional effects, microsimulation, housing tenure, subsidy incidence, Austria |
| JEL: | H23 Q48 D31 R21 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2026-07 |
| By: | Ramji, Aditya; Jain, Aakansha; Jamhar, Jameel |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8c16m9b6 |
| By: | Adefemi Abimbola; Kunal Patel; Michael D. Plante; Isabelle Tseng |
| Abstract: | With demand for electric vehicles failing to meet ambitious projections, automakers, battery companies and utilities are reassessing how best to deploy battery power. |
| Keywords: | batteries; electric vehicles; United States |
| Date: | 2026–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:d00001:102866 |