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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Massoud Karshenas; Hashem Pesaran; Ron Smith; M. Hashem Pesaran |
| Abstract: | The disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has once again exposed a structural weakness at the heart of the global energy system. Roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes through this narrow waterway. Any interruption carries immediate and far-reaching economic consequences. The question is not simply how to restore access, but how to ensure that such disruptions do not recur. This paper provides an economic model towards a durable resolution of security of shipping through Persian Gulf. |
| Keywords: | shipping, transit costs, global supply chains |
| JEL: | F68 G22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12633 |
| By: | Elsässer, Joshua Philipp; Fuhr, Harald; Fünfgeld, Anna; Lederer, Markus; Marquardt, Jens; Banerjee, Aparajita; Yi, HyunAh |
| Abstract: | Renewable energy has seen rapid uptake, particularly in the Global South. Solar energy projects have boomed in recent years, but uptake by countries is uneven. Beyond geophysical conditions, technological innovation, market dynamics and donor-driven "lighthouse projects", political institutionalisation has played a critical role in decarbonisation. In this policy brief, which is based on extensive research from Global South case studies, we argue that political institutionalisation is key to determining whether and how innovative solar initiatives become stabilised, scaled up, and mainstreamed. Drawing on the research project Institutionalizing Low Carbon Development in the Global South (INLOCADE) and expert contributions from a follow-up IDOS workshop, this policy brief synthesises comparative policy-relevant findings on how institutionalisation unfolds in various emerging economies of the Global South, including Brazil, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia and South Africa. Key messages: * Political institutionalisation - understood here as an enduring change of formal and informal rules and practices towards low-carbon development - is essential for making renewable energy projects sustainable by embedding them in conducive, stable governance frameworks. Isolated, donor-driven initiatives are at risk of provoking resistance and backlash, and of fading away once external support ends. * Multiple pathways for institutionalisation exist. State leadership, subnational action, alliances between development partners and communities, and crisis-driven coalitions can enable institutionalisation under different conditions. Policies should be tailored to the institutional realities of each context rather than using one-size-fits-all models. Similarly, development partners should assess local realities and adapt their strategies accordingly. * Distributive justice and participation must be actively supported. Political institutionalisation can lead to inequitable outcomes and reinforce exclusionary practices. Development partners should take a proactive role by aligning their interventions with inclusive and equitable approaches to ensure support for marginalised groups leads to socially just transitions, not just box-ticking. * Crises can be opportunities. Energy shortages and climate shocks can disrupt fossil-fuel lock-ins and open the door to innovation. Development partners need flexible instruments and strategies to help translate crisis-driven experiments into durable institutional change. * Development partners are catalytic, not deci-sive. They can accelerate change by providing finance, technical expertise, and legitimacy, especially when working with domestic actors beyond national governments. German and EU development cooperation should place greater emphasis on strengthening domestic institutional enviro-ments, including regulatory stability, administrative capacity, and actor coalitions that embed projects in lasting policy and organisational change. This helps ensure donor interventions contribute to sustained low-carbon transitions beyond initial project cycles. |
| Keywords: | Agenda 2030, energy, development financing and public finance, climate change, climate change mitigation, Global South |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:340851 |
| By: | My Thi Diem Phan; Trung Tuyen Truong; Hoai Phuong Ha; Dat Thanh Nguyen |
| Abstract: | Norway's electricity market is heavily dominated by hydropower, but the 2021--2022 energy crisis and stronger integration with Continental Europe have fundamentally altered price formation, reducing the reliability of forecasting models calibrated on historical data. Despite the critical need for updated models, a unified benchmark evaluating feature contributions across all structurally diverse Norwegian bidding zones remains lacking. Here we present a comprehensive evaluation of electricity price forecasting across all five Norwegian Nord Pool bidding zones. We constructed a multimodal hourly dataset spanning 2019--2025 and evaluated eight forecasting model families including LightGBM, ARX, and advanced deep learning architectures using a strictly causal test set. We implemented robust rolling-origin backtesting, leave-one-group-out feature ablation, and conditional regime analysis to dissect model performance and feature utility. Our results show that LightGBM achieves the best performance in every zone with MAE ranging from 1.64 to 5.74~EUR/MWh, while the ridge ARX model remains a highly competitive linear benchmark in northern zones. Feature ablation reveals that models relying solely on lagged prices and calendar variables achieve high accuracy and often match or exceed full multimodal integration. However, conditional regime analysis demonstrates that external features like reservoir levels and gas prices remain crucial to stratify forecast errors, which consistently increase under stressed market regimes. This highlights the practical value of model interpretability and regime awareness for decision makers facing structural changes in market dynamics. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.26634 |
| By: | Chiheb Ben Hammouda; Michael Samet; Ra\'ul Tempone |
| Abstract: | The rapid growth of weather-dependent renewable generation increases price volatility and imbalance penalty risk in power markets, creating the need for advanced quantitative trading strategies. We develop a data-driven continuous-time stochastic optimal control framework for intraday electricity trading using stochastic differential equations with drift terms ensuring mean reversion to deterministic forecast trajectories. Production follows a Jacobi diffusion, while prices follow an asymmetric jump-diffusion to reflect the heavy-tailed behavior observed in intraday markets. The framework accounts for realistic market features by incorporating gate closure and energy-based imbalance settlement over the delivery window, where the path-dependent imbalance cost is handled by state augmentation to preserve the Markovian structure. The value function is characterized via the dynamic programming principle by a three-stage sequence of two linear Kolmogorov backward equations and a nonlinear Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial integro-differential equation. To solve this problem efficiently, we propose a monotone IMEX finite-difference scheme with operator splitting, semi-implicit linearization, and a differential formulation for the jump operator. Numerical experiments based on German market data indicate that, under the provided forecasts, the computed strategy outperforms the TWAP benchmark and approaches the perfect-foresight benchmark. Sensitivity experiments further show how jump intensity, delivery-window length, and trading horizon affect the trading policy and the resulting profit-and-loss distribution. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.27700 |
| By: | Fjærvik, Thomas Michael (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Hølleland, Sondre Nedreås (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the optimal allocation of offshore wind farms along the Norwegian coast in light of the Norwegian Government’s objective to develop 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2040. Because wind power is inherently variable and expensive to store, we focus on maximizing base load production by identifying portfolios of wind farm locations that perform best in low-wind scenarios. Using wind speed data from the high-resolution NORA3-WP dataset for 20 candidate regions, we model marginal wind speed dynamics through seasonal ARMA processes and capture spatial dependence using a vine copula. This framework enables the simulation of 10 000 years of synthetic windspeed and corresponding power-output data. We then solve a constrained portfolio optimization problem that maximizes expected production in the lower 12% quantile of the joint power distribution, subject to sparsity constraints that limit development to five sites. The results show that spatial diversification can substantially stabilize base load wind power output. This paper thus adds to an existing quantitative foundation for offshore wind planning under production variability and spatial dependence. |
| Keywords: | Offshore wind power; conditional value-at-risk; spatial diversification; energy system planning |
| JEL: | C15 C32 C61 Q40 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2026_001 |
| By: | Niklas Rott; Douglas Almond; Osea Giuntella |
| Abstract: | Rapid growth of wind energy plays a key role in global efforts to reduce carbon emissions, yet public concerns persist about its potential health effects, particularly through noise exposure. While some studies and media reports suggest that wind turbines may contribute to sleep disturbances, anxiety, and even suicide, existing evidence remains limited and inconclusive. This study combines geolocated data on turbines from the U.S. Wind Turbine Database with longitudinal survey data on over 120, 000 households (2011–2023) and consumer purchasing records to assess whether proximity to wind turbines affects mental and physical health. We examine a wide range of outcomes, including depression, anxiety, sleep disorders, headaches, and use of sleep aids and painkillers. Comparing households before and after nearby turbine installations, we find no detectable adverse health effects from turbine exposure at typical exposure distances. While we cannot rule out small effects, our confidence intervals exclude moderate-to-large impacts, suggesting that fears about substantial health impacts are not borne out in population-level data. Other disamenities such as noise, shadow flicker, and visual intrusion may still affect quality of life even absent measurable health impacts. |
| JEL: | I1 Q50 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35131 |
| By: | Max Kleinebrahm; Jonathan Berrisch; Philipp Eiser; Wolf Fichtner; Veit Hagenmeyer; Matthias Hertel; Nils Koster; Sebastian Lerch; Ralf Mikut; Jan Priesmann; Melanie Schienle; Benjamin Schaefer; Jann Weinand; Florian Ziel |
| Abstract: | Energy forecasting research faces a persistent comparability gap that makes it difficult to measure consistent progress over time. Reported accuracy gains are often not directly comparable because models are evaluated under study-specific datasets, time periods, information sets, and scoring setups, while widely used benchmarks and competition datasets are typically tied to fixed historical windows. This paper introduces the Energy-Arena, a dynamic benchmarking platform for operational energy time series forecasting that provides a continuously updated reference point as energy systems evolve. The platform operates as an open, API-based submission system and standardizes challenge definitions and submission deadlines aligned with operational constraints. Performance is reported on rolling evaluation windows via persistent leaderboards. By moving from retrospective backtesting to forward-looking benchmarking, the Energy-Arena enforces standardized ex-ante submission and ex-post evaluation, thereby improving transparency by preventing information leakage and retroactive tuning. The platform is publicly available at Energy-Arena.org. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.24705 |
| By: | Saadaoui, Jamel (University Paris 8, IEE, LED, Saint-Denis, Franc); Smyth, Russell (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia); Vespignani, Joaquin (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Wang, Yitian (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China pose significant risks to global critical-mineral supply chains, particularly because refining capacity for most critical minerals, including aluminium, copper, nickel, tin and zinc, is overwhelmingly concentrated in China. Using monthly data from 1995–2025 and a structural VAR-local projection framework, we estimate the dynamic effects of exogenous shocks to the US-China Political Relations Index (PRI) on mineral markets. We find that geopolitical deterioration systematically induces significant precautionary stockpiling. We then construct a multidimensional friend-shoring index incorporating reserves, alignment, regime type and distance, showing that only a narrow set of United States partners, primarily Australia and Canada, offer feasible pathways for refining diversification. The policy recommendation stemming from our findings is that the United States should make strategic stockpiling of refined critical minerals, rather than raw ores, the centerpiece of its strategy to build supply chain resilience, while negotiating long-term bilateral packages for the supply of refined critical minerals with Australia and Canada. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitics; Critical Minerals; Macroeconomics; economics; geopolitical risk; friend-shoring; |
| JEL: | Q34 Q37 F51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tas:wpaper:30907385 |
| By: | Wang, Yitian (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia); Vespignani, Joaquin (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Smyth, Russell (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia) |
| Abstract: | Accelerating transport electrification is vital for net-zero goals, yet remains hindered by slow, uncertain development of battery minerals. We show how non-technical risk, such as policy, regulatory, social, and geopolitical risk, inflate capital costs, delay greenfield supply, and heighten price volatility for lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, graphite, and copper. Combining Fraser Institute investment scores with reserve shares of these critical minerals, we construct dynamic, mineral-specific risk premiums, derive an optimal stockpiling rule balancing risk and storage costs and introduce a distance-to-iso-cost map comparing recycling and stockpiling strategies. Our framework suggests that in 2040 recycling-led stabilization will be the optimal strategy for mitigating non-technical risk for Japan and Korea, strategic stockpiling will be the optimal strategy for China and the United States, and mixed outcomes for Europe. The method that we propose provides a tractable and updateable toolkit for deciding optimal stockpiles and prioritising recycling where it is most cost-effective. |
| Keywords: | economics; finance; energy economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tas:wpaper:30907352 |
| By: | Yanrui Wu (Department of Economics, University of Western Australia) |
| Abstract: | This report presents an overview of the supply chains of key EV battery critical minerals by examining the electric battery industry of China. It highlights the potential supply chain risks and discusses options to minimize these risks. It then provides several policy recommendations for relevant governments. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicle industry, EV batteries, battery critical minerals, supply chains |
| JEL: | F13 L62 O25 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:26-03 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Europe's green transition risks strategic fragility. Critical material dependencies, geopolitical tensions, and industrial limits could undermine climate ambitions and autonomy. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Constraints, Green supply chain, Vulnerability, Europe |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05608270 |
| By: | Samuel H. Ward; Richard J. Pearson; Thomas B. Scott; Niek J. Lopes Cardozo |
| Abstract: | The impact of lithium isotopic enrichment on the global deployment of nuclear fusion energy is analysed. Lithium - the 6Li isotope in particular - is essentially one of two elemental fuels required by fusion reactors for tritium breeding. Whilst variable consumption of lithium is low enough to present negligible cost, it is instead the large stored inventory volume (50-100 tonnes) and its required enrichment that compound to significantly drive capital costs. These costs are driven by the inefficiency of the tritium breeding process, making this challenge fundamental to almost all fusion power plant concepts. Financing would further compound these effects, making lithium fusion fuels more akin to an upfront capital expenditure than operational expenditure. Other potential barriers to fusion deployment created by lithium are also discussed: enrichment technologies of today are shown to be too expensive, not scalable, and environmentally risky, and highly enriched 6Li is a controlled substance. Mitigating actions include: developing alternative enrichment technologies that are affordable, scalable, and do not rely on mercury; incorporating lithium enrichment as an explicit cost driver in reactor design processes, producing more compact reactors with smaller lithium inventories; establishing distinct enrichment levels to enable supply chain monitoring for misuse; and the most radical solution: breeding blankets that use natural, unenriched lithium. These actions may impact tritium breeding capabilities, which calls for an urgent re-assessment of the tritium breeding paradigm. Whatever solution is sought, lithium supply is a mission-critical issue that needs urgently addressing. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.04707 |
| By: | Thomas Lebbe; Freddy Heylen (-) |
| Abstract: | Estimates of the elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty energy - and the values assumed in theoretical models - vary from less than 0.5 to as high as 10, creating substantial uncertainty about climate policy effectiveness and the feasibility of green growth. This paper develops an encompassing empirical specification that nests both low and high elasticity estimates and applies it to macroeconomic data from 13 OECD countries over 1980– 2020. Holding countries’ energy-related technology and infrastructure constant, the estimated elasticity of substitution remains well below 1, indicating limited short-run responsiveness of energy inputs to relative price changes. Allowing technology and infrastructure to respond to price changes, the estimated elasticity rises to between 2 and 3, a plausible long-run value. Without any controls, estimates reach as high as 6, greatly overstating true substitutability. We conclude that price-based policies alone, such as carbon taxes, are insufficient to trigger early-stage energy transitions. Investments in clean technology and infrastructure are essential, as they increase both the share of clean energy and the elasticity of substitution. Our findings can also guide the calibration of energy-augmented macroeconomic models. The elasticity values imposed in these models appear more often too high than too low. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:26/1140 |
| By: | Piseddu, Elisa (RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and Bernhardt Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine); Brodeur, Abel (University of Ottawa); Rose, Julian (RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and Ludwig Maximilian University Munich, Department of Sociology); Sievert, Maximiliane (RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research); Ankel-Peters, Jörg (RWI – Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and University of Passau) |
| Abstract: | Döbbeling-Hildebrandt et al. (2024, DH2024) conduct a meta-analysis of the effectiveness of carbon pricing. DH2024’s abstract concludes that 17 of 21 schemes evaluated in the literature produced substantial emissions reductions. A subsequent press release was headed: “Carbon pricing works†. This comment revisits the meta-analysis and examines whether its empirical evidence supports the claims made in DH2024’s abstract and, notably, the press release. We use DH2024’s own approach of accounting for statistical power and potentially biased causal inference in the underlying studies. We show that when these criteria are applied simultaneously and conservatively – which we argue they should be – only nine effective schemes remain, eight in China and one regional US scheme. We emphasize that statistical power is a major issue in most carbon pricing evaluations, because most carbon prices are very low, leading to weak signal-to-noise ratios. We conclude that DH2024’s policy implications and its press release therefore cannot be squared with its evidence base. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing, meta-analysis, statistical power |
| JEL: | Q35 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18579 |
| By: | Geir B. Asheim; Bård Harstad |
| Abstract: | The traditional approach to climate policy is to regulate the demand side, for example through an emissions fee. Supply-side regulation has received less attention. The two instruments are perfect substitutes in the first best but we show that they are complements in a second-best setting with free-riding incentives. Demand-side policies alone lower the market price of fossil fuels and raise the gains from trade for a country that defects. For a treaty to be maximally robust, strong, and self-enforcing, it must properly balance supply- and demand-side instruments. The results hold with homogeneous countries and are strengthened by heterogeneity. |
| JEL: | D62 F53 H23 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35128 |
| By: | Toman, Michael A. (Resources for the Future); Lohawala, Nafisa (Resources for the Future); Shih, Jhih-Shyang (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) are widely viewed as essential in the near-to-medium term for significantly reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the aviation sector. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has set a goal of net-zero aviation emissions by 2050, and several jurisdictions—including the European Union and United Kingdom—have adopted policies mandating increasing SAF use. The United States has several tax breaks available to SAF producers. See Lohawala et al. (2026) for an overview of SAF policy frameworks in the United States and other jurisdictions. Despite these policy signals, however, SAF production remains far below the scale required to meet ICAO’s longer-term emission-mitigation targets (ICAO 2025a).Several technological pathways exist for producing SAF. One emerging option is ethanol-to-jet (ETJ), which converts ethanol derived from biomass into jet fuel through a series of chemical processes. Because ethanol production is already well established—particularly in the United States—ETJ has attracted attention as a pathway that could expand SAF supply in the near-to-medium term. Companies such as LanzaJet (which began operating the first commercial-scale US ETJ facility in 2024), Gevo, and Summit Next Gen are pursuing ETJ.Lohawala (2026) examined the potential role of corn-based, or “first-generation, ” ETJ in SAF markets by comparing it with the hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) pathway—the most established SAF technology today—which converts lipid feedstocks, such as vegetable oils and animal fats, into jet fuel. That analysis identified several factors that have drawn interest to ETJ relative to HEFA. First, lipid feedstocks are limited and already face competing demand from renewable diesel and other markets, raising concerns about long-term availability. By contrast, US corn-based ethanol production occurs at large scale, supported by extensive agricultural supply chains and processing infrastructure, creating the possibility of expanding SAF production by leveraging an established industry. Such expansion may also become more relevant for ethanol producers if demand for ethanol in road transportation declines as electric vehicles gain market share. The analysis also noted that ETJ may be more cost-competitive, in part because corn feedstocks are typically less expensive than vegetable oils.However, the analysis highlighted an important challenge: the life-cycle carbon intensity (CI) of corn-based ETJ. CI is a central metric in SAF policy because many programs worldwide condition eligibility or credit values on the estimated CI of a fuel relative to fossil jet fuel. The CI for corn-based fuels can be substantial, reflecting emissions from fertilizer use, farm energy, ethanol processing, and potential land-use change in crop production. The potential role of corn-based ETJ as a low-carbon aviation fuel depends on the extent to which its CI can be reduced without sharply increasing production costs.We examine how this CI-reduction challenge could be addressed by focusing on emissions-reduction strategies that the literature identifies as having relatively large mitigation potential across the ETJ supply chain. Although these strategies can lower emissions, they also introduce additional costs and infrastructure requirements that create barriers for scaling up ETJ. |
| Date: | 2026–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:ibrief:ib-26-03 |
| By: | Caroline Veldhuizen (Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how, during a 25-year timeline from 2000 to 2025, the European Union (EU) has used climate, industrial and environmental policy to shape the emergence of an integrated carbon management system (CMS). It assesses the extent to which the evolving framework exhibits characteristics consistent with transformative innovation policy (TIP). The CMS is conceptualised as an emergent, policy-driven ‘interconnected system complex’ centred on carbon capture and storage (CCS), carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR), linked to multiple socio-technical systems. Methodologically, the study undertakes qualitative analysis of 114 binding and non-binding EU policy documents, over the timeline. An adapted version of Kanger, Ghosh and Entsalo’s (2025) Intervention Points Framework (IPF), grounded in the multi-level perspective, multi-system interaction literature, policy mix research and TIP debates is used as the analytical lens. The IPF is refined to address formation of an emergent, socio-technical configuration, rather than transition in more stable, established meso-level systems. The paper makes a number of important empirical and conceptual contributions. Empirically, the study reveals both the depth and shallowness of policy leverage across different intervention points and establishes that the transformative potential of the emergent CMS is real but ambivalent and contested. Conceptually, the study illustrates how policy may be used as a vehicle for observing and describing evolving systemic structures and flows and their directionality, and the iterative processes of formation and change which define them. The study also enables insights about the political nature of the ‘landscape’ level of the MLP, and the importance of the policymaking paradigm, for determining the potential of policy to drive transformational change. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tik:inowpp:20260504 |
| By: | Spiller, Beia (Resources for the Future); Whitlock, Zach; Kota, Ambarish; DeAngeli, Emma (Resources for the Future); Lohawala, Nafisa (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Critical minerals, such as lithium, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements, are vital components of defense, energy, and transportation technologies. As demand for these technologies and their minerals grows, the geographic reality of where they are extracted, processed, and manufactured has drawn increasing attention. Though the United States has some mineral reserves and strategic industrial policies for certain base metals, its participation in the mineral supply chain has declined over the past century, and market concentration in foreign supply has increased concerns about exposure to supply disruptions.In response, recent administrations have established priorities around critical minerals and taken steps to mitigate supply risk, with the current administration taking a much more active role in advancing its critical minerals policy goals, including unprecedented investments in individual critical mineral mining and refining projects.We present new data that highlight the market and economic challenges to onshoring the critical mineral supply chain, noting the large technical, geographic, and economic differences across minerals. We then discuss workforce, infrastructure, and social license challenges to increasing domestic production, along with the various federal efforts to ensure secure access to mineral supply. Finally, we present a framework for how investments can be prioritized to maximize the efficacy of federal expenditures and reduce supply risk and how policies can be evaluated in their support of these efforts. We conclude by identifying research gaps and proposing directions for future work to support evidence based industrial policy and improve the resilience, competitiveness, and social legitimacy of the federal critical minerals strategy. |
| Date: | 2026–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:report:rp-26-08 |
| By: | Harold, Brian; Rodier, Caroline PhD |
| Abstract: | In the US, access to a personal vehicle is often essential for getting to work, school, healthcare services, shopping, and other daily needs. To expand mobility options and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, several states have launched publicly supported electric vehicle (EV) carsharing pilot programs. These programs aim to provide affordable, low-carbon transportation options to households that cannot afford to own a vehicle. Míocar, a nonprofit carsharing service, has implemented successful pilots in rural and suburban communities in California’s San Joaquin Valley. In 2022, it expanded its service to the urban environment of Richmond, California by coordinating with the City of Richmond to implement a total of six carshare hubs, three of which are still operational as of 2025. Our research team studied the Richmond pilot service using member surveys, vehicle use data, and interviews with Míocar staff to understand how well the model translated to a denser urban setting and what lessons could guide future deployments. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3mw5h90d |
| By: | Anthony Britto; Carlos Oliveira; Max Kleinebrahm |
| Abstract: | Despite many decades of research, economically grounded models that analyse energy consumption and energy-efficiency adoption within a unified framework remain underdeveloped. This article addresses this gap by proposing a model of consumption, investment, and energy-efficiency adoption under uncertainty. It develops new definitions of the rebound and backfire effects, and integrates their welfare implications into a model of optimal subsidy design. Macro-level technology diffusion and energy consumption across heterogeneous agents are also formalised. Explicit results for core objects are derived, including the adoption threshold and post-adoption strategies, and these are shown to depend on agent wealth, introducing a novel channel through which financial conditions influence technology-adoption decisions. An approximation scheme is proposed to estimate welfare implications explicitly. Adoption of energy efficiency is shown to be welfare improving in the main. A detailed case study of a representative German single-family home illustrates the theoretical results. Numerical analysis indicates that the subsidy policy effectively steers aggregate energy consumption. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.28052 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | This article examines Azerbaijan’s post-oil economic trajectory and assesses the country’s growing exposure to the middle-income trap. Drawing on retrospective macroeconomic data, medium- and long-term forecasts, and comparative evidence from Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan, the study argues that Azerbaijan’s hydrocarbon-dependent growth model has become increasingly unsustainable. While oil and gas revenues supported rapid growth during the boom years, declining oil production, weak diversification, low productivity growth, and reduced foreign investment have contributed to a sharp slowdown since 2016. The analysis shows that Azerbaijan is projected to underperform its regional peers in GDP growth, GDP per capita, innovation capacity, governance quality, economic freedom, and human development. Institutional constraints, monopolization, systemic corruption, and limited political and civil liberties further weaken the country’s capacity for structural transformation. The article concludes that, absent comprehensive market-oriented reforms, stronger institutions, anti-corruption measures, and productivity-enhancing diversification, Azerbaijan is likely to remain trapped in the upper-middle-income category for an extended period, while Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan are better positioned to converge toward high-income status. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia, post-oil economy, middle-income trap, economic diversification, hydrocarbon dependence, institutional quality, governance, corruption, economic growth, freedoms |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:340201 |
| By: | Krantz, Sebastian; Srinivasan, Sharada; Begazo, Tania |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the complementarities between energy and digital infrastructure in developing countries. Using geospatial data on power transmission lines, power plants, cell towers, and fiber-optic nodes matched to settlement-level wealth indicators across sub-Saharan Africa, and detailed subnational data from Liberia, we estimate the joint effects of proximity to energy and digital infrastructure on local economic development. We test whether the marginal returns to one infrastructure type are increasing in the availability of the other. Our results confirm significant positive complementarity effects. Across sub-Saharan Africa, both digital and power infrastructure proximity are strongly associated with higher settlement wealth, with stable positive interaction coefficients (semi-elasticities) of approximately 1.5 International Wealth Index points across all control specifications, indicating that marginal returns to each infrastructure type are substantially amplified by the presence of the other. These findings are robust across linear fixed-effects regressions and nonparametric Local-Linear Causal Forest (LLCF) estimates; the LLCF further reveals that proximity to the complementary infrastructure type is the single strongest predictor of treatment effect heterogeneity, a direct nonparametric signature of complementarity. The quality of digital connectivity as measured by internet speed is an important mediator. In Liberia, energy consumption per connection also interacts positively with cell tower proximity, confirming complementarity at the intensive margin of energy usage. Our findings support coordinated, spatially bundled investment in both infrastructure types as a development policy priority. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure complementarity, electrification, digital connectivity, economic development, Africa |
| JEL: | O18 O13 L96 H54 O55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:340836 |
| By: | Sonja Dobkowitz |
| Abstract: | I study optimal implementation of climate targets in a model with distortionary fiscal policy, learning-by-doing, and directed technical change. The key mechanism is that fiscal constraints link innovation policy to labor allocation, creating a tension between directing research and directing learning-by-doing. Analytically, I show that learning-by-doing shapes the effectiveness of carbon taxation in directing research through an expertise effect: carbon taxes are more effective at steering innovation toward green technologies when green expertise is relatively high. Quantitatively, I calibrate the model to the U.S. economy to characterize the optimal policy mix consistent with climate targets. I find that carbon should be taxed heavily, persistently exceeding the social cost of carbon. While higher carbon prices raise green expertise, they induce an excessively rapid reallocation of researchers from fossil to green technologies, generating persistent innovation misallocation. A welfare analysis shows that learning-by-doing substantially amplifies the cost of distortionary taxation, in particular during the transition to net-zero emissions. |
| Keywords: | Second-best climate policy, directed technical change, learning-by-doing, Ramsey taxation, misallocation of innovation, emissions target implementation |
| JEL: | H21 H23 O38 Q54 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2161 |
| By: | Sofia Aleshina (Universidad de Malaga); Richard S.J. Tol (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Valeriya Ignatovskaya (HSE University) |
| Abstract: | This work presents a modified version of the integrated economic-climate model RICE-CH4. The aim of the work was to expand the basic RICE model by explicitly accounting for methane (CH4) emissions along with traditional carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, as well as the subsequent analysis of the economic and climatic effects of implementing various emissions control strategies. The development was based on the open implementation of RICE in Python using the Pyomo library and the IPOPT solver. The model was modified as follows: a separate methane cycle block was implemented, including both industrial and natural CH4 emissions; the radiative forcing function was adapted taking into account the contribution of methane; a new control variable was built in to reduce CH4 emissions; the logic of two climate policy scenarios, cooperative and non-cooperative, was implemented. In addition, parameterization and aggregation of input data for 12 regions were conducted based on open sources. The model covers key blocks of integrated assessment: the dynamics of capital, investment, savings, production, consumption, and emissions, as well as climate indicators--greenhouse gas concentrations, atmospheric and ocean temperatures, radiative forcing, and climate change damage. Simulations were conducted for the 2025-2115 horizon, and the objective function indicators were calculated. The resulting RICE-CH4 model can be used as a tool for quantitative analysis of climate policy, assessing the social cost of emissions, and sustainable development strategies in a regional representation of global data. A flexible implementation structure provides the potential for future expansion of the model: adding new types of emissions, complicating the country interaction block, and integrating it with external risk and resilience assessment modules. |
| Keywords: | climate change , global warming, methane emissions, RICE model |
| Date: | 2026–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20260003 |
| By: | Kim, Pyung (University of California, Santa Barbara) |
| Abstract: | This study exploits South Korea's unique dual-policy framework to evaluate the comparative effects of carbon pricing and command-and-control regulation on firm-level environmental performance. Using a difference-in-differences design with firm-level panel data from 2011 to 2022, I compare outcomes between firms regulated under a command-and-control program (Target Management System, TMS) and those subject to a market-based carbon pricing mechanism (Emissions Trading Scheme, ETS). The results show that ETS-regulated firms reduced energy use by approximately 5.8% to 8.8% and carbon emissions by 7.3% to 8.5% across model specifications. However, the effects on carbon intensity were inconsistent. Event-study analyses suggest that these differing effects are driven by the heterogeneous timing of firm responses: immediate but short-lived reductions in energy use, persistent declines in carbon emissions, and gradual improvements in emissions efficiency. Phase-specific estimates further indicate that more market-oriented ETS phases were associated with stronger reductions in carbon emissions and intensity, underscoring the role of incentive-based policy design in enhancing environmental outcomes. |
| Date: | 2026–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ac4wb_v1 |
| By: | Zhang, Yumei; Wang, Jingjing; Ruizeng, Zhang; Sun, Tiantian; Fan, Shenggen |
| Abstract: | Global agrifood systems must undergo a low-carbon transition to achieve Paris Agreement temperature goals. Accounting for 13% of global agrifood systems emissions, China has a critical role to play; yet without further action, China’s agrifood emission will continue to rise, jeopardizing its carbon neutrality commitment. This study employs a mixed-methods approach combining narrative literature review and integrated modelling to: (1) characterize China's agrifood system emissions across the entire value chain, (2) project carbon emissions reduction and carbon sequestration potential under multiple scenarios, and (3) provide lessons for other developing countries. Under the baseline scenario, holding current trends and policies constant, emissions are projected to rise slowly to 1.8 billion tons of CO₂eq by 2060 from 1.6 billion tons in 2021, driven primarily by the expansion of livestock sector and growing energy use. However, our modeling results suggest that a combination of measures, including productivity improvement, adoption of low-carbon technologies, reducing food loss and waste, production structure adjustment and low-carbon energy transition, could reduce emissions by over 60% by 2060 relative to the baseline, while enhancing the carbon sequestration potential to 1.8 billion tons CO₂eq annually. The latter will not only neutralize the emissions from agrifood system but also contribute to the national carbon neutrality goal. These results underscore that synergistic, system-wide interventions substantially outperform isolated measures. China's experience offers valuable reference for other countries in formulating sustainable agricultural policies and pursuing low-carbon transitions. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397899 |
| By: | Brühl, Volker |
| Abstract: | Since the Iran war, fuel prices in Germany have risen sharply. Our analysis shows that diesel prices at gas stations have increased much more than crude oil prices. On average, downstream margins for oil companies rose by 29 euro cents per liter of diesel during the period under review. To ensure that, in times of crisis, only actual changes in crude oil prices are passed on to end consumers, gas station prices could be linked to daily spot prices in Rotterdam or to short-term Brent futures contracts. |
| Keywords: | Iran-Krieg, Rohölpreise, Tankstellenpreise für Diesel, Iran war, crude oil prices, gas station prices for diesel |
| JEL: | Q40 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:340835 |
| By: | Zilla, Claudia |
| Abstract: | US imperial policy towards Latin America and the Caribbean is characterised by a combination of dominance ambitions and exclusivity claims. Through drastic coercive measures, Washington is forcing an economic transformation in Venezuela without paving the way for a political transition. At the same time, it is imposing a fuel blockade on Cuba and threatening to take over that country. Above all, Germany and the EU should support civil society in Venezuela and Cuba. Furthermore, they should unequivocally acknowledge the already existing violations of international law and adopt a firm stance against the normalisation of violence and disregard for human rights. |
| Keywords: | US imperial policy, Latin America and the Caribbean, economic transformation, Venezuela, Cuba, Donald Trump, violations of international law, disregard for human rights, National Security Strategy (NSS), Delcy Rodríguez, Nicolás Maduro, Marco Rubio, Raúl Castro, Díaz-Canel, oil |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:340857 |
| By: | Parisa Pakrooh; Matteo Manera |
| Abstract: | Despite the strong commitment of European countries to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, the extent to which key policies and drivers jointly shape emissions dynamics remains insufficiently investigated. To fill this gap, the study investigates the combined effects of the circular economy, energy transition, emissions trading systems, carbon tax, and digitalization on carbon reduction in the EU member states. Using annual data from 2000 to 2023, the analysis integrates causal discovery, time-varying dependence modeling, and machine learning methods to unravel system-level causal structure, dynamic connectedness, and future emission trajectories. The Directed Acyclic Graph method, especially the Fast Adjacency Skewness algorithm, identifies both contemporaneous and lagged causal relationships, in which resource productivity acts as a transmission channel within the system. Lagged disequilibrium shocks propagate from upstream circular economy factor (material footprint) and digitalization to midstream efficiency (resource productivity), and ultimately are transmitted to emissions. Time-varying copula models confirm significant heterogeneity and evolving dependence among key factors, highlighting the nature of the dynamic relationships. Forecasting results, based on a Support Vector Regression model under the European Union’s 2030 climate policy target, indicate a persistently declining emission trajectory, however at an insufficient speed to meet the EU’s 2030 target. Sensitivity analysis indicates that this gap does not reflect a policy failure but the need for accelerated policy adjustments. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Emissions, Energy Transition, Emissions Trading System, Circular Economy, Digitalization, EU Climate Policy |
| JEL: | Q54 Q43 Q58 C55 C32 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:573 |
| By: | Putz, Lena-Marie; von Haaren, Paula; Berger, Axel; Baldrighi, Rafael de Moraes; Pereira, Guísela |
| Abstract: | As the world approaches global warming tipping points, local climate engagement aims at climate actions that are equitable, effective and aligned with local needs. Strengthening and scaling up these initiatives can amplify impact, though efforts are often fragmented and require strengthened coordination. This policy brief identifies barriers and enablers of local climate action, how it is best scaled up, and how international actors - donors, policymakers, city and research networks, businesses and others - can support this process. Building on these insights, the following points outline key conditions for strengthening, scaling up and sustaining locally led climate action: * community-centred co-creation - investing in participatory, culturally grounded processes that map local needs, integrate diverse knowledge, and establish a common language; * predictable, flexible funding - providing long-term resources for locally led climate action, and planning additional finance to scale up solutions, including those involving knowledge sharing platforms and coordi-nation capacity; * private-sector engagement - creating incentives aligned with climate and community priorities, such as collaboration in the development of green products, in facilitating their market access and assisting with certification and value-chain regulations. * multilevel coordination and data sharing - establishing clear institutional pathways, monitoring mechanisms and interoperable data platforms to connect local action with national and international policies, leveraging synergies, and increasing accountability; and * just international partnerships - supporting local and Southern priorities through green development opportunities, ensuring fairness and co-benefits for the partners involved. |
| Keywords: | climate change, urbanisation, local climate action, international cooperation, community-led development, sustainability, sustainable development, SDGs, scaling, climate |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:340850 |
| By: | Rajashri Chakrabarti; Thu Pham; Beckett Pierce; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy |
| Abstract: | In March 2026, energy prices surged to a four-year high, driven by the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In this Liberty Street Economics post, we use the new consumer spending module of the Economic Heterogeneity Indicators to analyze recent changes in nominal and real gas consumption across different income groups. We find that households had very different experiences with gasoline spending: in March, high-income households increased nominal spending the most and kept real consumption essentially unchanged, while low-income households decreased real consumption of gasoline but still saw sharply increased nominal spending because of the rise in gas prices. Therefore, with the sharp increases in gasoline prices in March, a K-shaped pattern in gasoline consumption emerged—showing faster consumption growth for high-income households relative to low-income households. These gasoline consumption patterns qualitatively match those following the increase in energy prices at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in spring 2022, even though the gap in consumption trends during the current episode is quantitatively larger. |
| Keywords: | heterogeneity; K-shaped economy; gasoline; Middle East war (2026) |
| JEL: | D31 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:103173 |
| By: | Vina Dooshima Kiishi (Graduate School of Management, Postgraduate Centre, Management and Science University Malaysia Author-2-Name: Mohamad Idrakisyah Author-2-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Management, Postgraduate Centre, Management and Science University Malaysia Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - As the global community accelerates its transition to sustainable energy systems to mitigate climate change, Nigeria faces the dual challenge of sustaining economic growth while reducing its dependence on oil. This study examines the role of natural gas as a transitional energy source in Nigeria's journey toward sustainable development, with an emphasis on strategic management, governance, and long-term policy alignment. Methodology - Employing a mixed-methods approach that integrates literature review, secondary data analysis, and semi-structured interviews with policymakers and industry experts, the research assesses the opportunities and constraints associated with natural gas utilization. Quantitative data from the International Energy Agency and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited indicate that, despite substantial gas reserves, domestic utilization remains below 30% of production, owing to infrastructure, regulatory, and market constraints. Comparative analysis of countries such as Qatar, Egypt, and Algeria highlights how coherent governance structures and investment frameworks can enhance gas-sector performance. Findings - The study adopts the Triple Bottom Line (TBL), Energy Ladder Theory (ELT), and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as guiding frameworks, linking management strategies to measurable outcomes, including emission reduction, job creation, and GDP contribution. Findings underscore the need for short-, medium-, and long-term strategies, stronger multi-stakeholder coordination, and proactive risk management to avoid overreliance on gas amid global decarbonization. Novelty - The paper concludes that with effective governance, policy coherence, and investment in innovation, natural gas can serve as a bridge fuel in driving Nigeria's transition toward an inclusive, low-carbon, and resilient energy future. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Natural gas, Sustainable Development, Energy transition, Management, Nigeria |
| JEL: | P51 Q48 O13 Q43 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber276 |
| By: | Sandrine Frémeaux (Audencia Business School); Hye-Lan Lee (Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | In the civil economy, and even more so in the gift economy, the logic of giving can find its place in economic activity itself. It is well established that giving can support social and ecological actions, but the question remains as to how it can support an organization's ecological transition. Based on a qualitative investigation within a South Korean gift economy organization, our study reveals that ecological awareness-raising or training, support for ecological actors, and efforts to reduce waste and emissions are all more effective when they are experienced as opportunities to practice the logic of giving and to strengthen social ties. We also highlight four characteristics of the ecological transition based on the logic of giving: ecological giving as a choice for entrepreneurs and managers, the practice of ecological giving by all, the cascading of ecological gifts, and the synergy between social and ecological giving. Finally, our study identifies the specific tensions inherent in this ecological response and also shows how, in a collectivist culture, economic actors confront these tensions by focusing on the benefits of collective action. |
| Keywords: | Civil economy, Collectivist culture, Ecological transition, Logic of giving |
| Date: | 2025–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05605769 |
| By: | Stef Proost (K.U.Leuven) |
| Abstract: | Cet article décrit les principales sources d'émissions de carbone dans le secteur des transports, notamment les voitures, les camions, le transport maritime et l'aviation. Pour chaque mode, il passe en revue les mesures d'incitation à l'efficacité énergétique, les politiques en matière de carburants alternatifs et les politiques de report modal, ainsi que les résultats auxquels on peut s'attendre. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05604102 |
| By: | Schenker, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Die Energiewende tritt in eine Phase, in der Verbraucher/innen selbst zu zentralen Akteuren werden, da Klimapolitik nun direkt in deren Entscheidungen hineinwirkt. Aus ökonomischer Sicht gilt die Bepreisung von Treibhausgasemissionen als das effizienteste Instrument, das in Europa bislang in erster Linie in Energie- und Industriesektoren eingesetzt wurde. Da mit einigem Erfolg: Seit dem Start des europäischen Emissionshandelssystems (EU ETS) im Jahre 2005 sind die Emissionen in den regulierten Sektoren um etwa 51 Prozent gesunken. Durch die Ausweitung des Emissionshandels auf den Gebäude- und Verkehrssektor über das zweite Emissionshandelssystem (EU ETS2), voraussichtlich im Jahr 2028, wird ein zentraler Pfeiler der Energiewende für die Haushalte direkter spürbar. Modellrechnungen erwarten Preisen zwischen 100 und 300 Euro pro Tonne CO2 für die erste Hälfte der 2030er Jahre (siehe Abbildung 1), was einer ungefähren Verdoppelung bis Verfünffachung gegenüber den heutigen Preisen entspricht. Damit werden Kauf- und Investitionsentscheidungen von Haushalten zu entscheidenden Faktoren für den Erfolg der Energiewende, aber auch der dem Wahlerfolg von Parteien, weil sozial- und verteilungspolitische Aspekte der Klimapolitik in den Fokus rücken. Maßnahmen mit spürbaren Belastungen sind politisch nur tragfähig, wenn sie als legitim wahrgenommen werden. Werden Belastungen als unfair wahrgenommen, kann die Akzeptanz schnell sinken oder gar kippen. Dieser Policy Brief erläutert die Evidenz hinter diesen Zusammenhängen und diskutiert politische Handlungsoptionen, die diese Aspekte mitberücksichtigen. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:340877 |
| By: | Donatella Baiardi (Department of Economics and Management, University of Parma); Fabio Landini (Department of Economics and Management, University of Parma); Mario Menegatti (Department of Economics and Management, University of Parma); Ugo Rizzo (Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Ferrara; Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies (SEEDS)); Luigi Tredicine (Department of Economics and Management, University of Parma) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of green-oriented university education on environmental quality, by developing a conceptual framework in which firm emissions depend on the joint use of green technologies and green-skilled labor. In complementarity between these inputs, an increase in the local supply of green-skilled labor induces firms to adopt more green technologies, thereby improving environmental quality. In addition, we show that this effect is stronger in more labor-intensive sectors. Guided by these theoretical insights, we perform an empirical analysis based on a novel measure of green higher education, constructed using administrative data on more than 90, 000 university course descriptions in Italy. We build an indicator of the green content of academic programs using natural language processing techniques and aggregate it at the provincial level to proxy the supply of green-skilled workers. Combining this measure with detailed data on environmental quality, proxied by different types of air emissions, including carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5). We find that a higher supply of graduates with more intensive green skills is associated with significantly lower emissions of key pollutants, including CO2, CO, PM10, and PM2.5. This relationship is robust to a wide set of controls and fixed effects. In line with our model, the association is stronger for service-related emissions than for industrial sources. In general, these findings highlight the role of higher education as a key driver of improved environmental quality through the provision of green skills. |
| Keywords: | Higher Education; Green Skills; University; Air Pollutants; Environmental Quality |
| JEL: | I23 Q51 Q53 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:1026 |