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on Energy Economics |
| By: | OHASHI, Kazuhiko; WU, Hsiu; YAMAMOTO, Yohei |
| Abstract: | The electricity market is characterized by kinked supply and demand curves. However, how these features affect price dynamics in response to supply and demand shocks has not been fully explored. We use high-frequency data from the Japanese wholesale electricity market to investigate the impulse responses of electricity prices before and after the global energy crisis. Our results show that the price response to demand shocks declines, whereas the response to supply shocks increases during the crisis period. These patterns are consistent with an upward shift in a kinked supply curve and an inward shift in a kinked demand curve. A complementary structural vector autoregression analysis indicates that the persistent elevation in electricity prices has been driven by supply shocks, while demand shocks have partially offset this upward pressure. Overall, the results highlight the exposure of electricity prices to international fuel market conditions and underscore the roles of demand and supply shocks in electricity price dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Electricity prices, Wholesale electricity market, Supply and demand shocks, Energy crisis, LP-IV, SVAR |
| JEL: | C32 C36 L94 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–04–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-161 |
| By: | Luis E. Gonzales; Koichiro Ito; Mar Reguant |
| Abstract: | Electricity reliability is a central challenge for the energy transition, as growing energy demand, renewable energy integration, and natural disasters increase the risk of large-scale blackouts. However, the economic impacts of large-scale blackouts remain largely unknown. We combine electricity market data with high-frequency economic transaction data from Chile to examine the effects of nationwide blackouts. Economic activity declined by 35 percent on the blackout day, but half of this loss was shifted to subsequent days, highlighting the importance of accounting for intertemporal substitution. Exploiting spatial variation in blackout severity, we highlight the importance of accounting for endogenous recovery when estimating the marginal value of lost load. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1078 |
| By: | Yukihide Kurakawa (Kanazawa Seiryo University) |
| Abstract: | This study theoretically examines how electricity market structure affects total emissions. We define emissions attributable to imperfect competition, relative to a perfectly competitive benchmark. Im- perfect competition in the electricity market reduces emissions from electricity generation; however, higher prices discourage electrification in end-use sectors and increase the direct use of fossil fuels. When the emission factor of electricity is below a certain threshold, higher prices associated with imperfect competition lead to higher total emissions, whereas the effect reverses when the emission factor exceeds the threshold. This threshold can be indirectly identified through changes in electricity consumption under a carbon tax. These findings indicate that pro-competitive policies can reduce total emissions if (and only if) the emission factor of electricity is sufficiently low; otherwise, they may increase total emissions. Moreover, the emission reduction effect of such policies becomes even stronger as the electricity emission factor decreases. |
| Keywords: | electricity market structure, imperfect competition, electrification, carbon tax, total emissions |
| JEL: | D40 L13 L94 Q42 Q50 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:was:dpaper:2601 |
| By: | Audi, Marc; Ali, Amjad; Poulin, Marc |
| Abstract: | Rapid expansion in urbanisation, along with the rising demand for energy consumption, has deepened environmental apprehensions among developing economies and intensified their concerns about long-run environmental sustainability. This article examines how urban expansion and rising energy consumption impact environmental sustainability, and whether environmental taxes moderate this relationship, by using a panel of 110 developing countries over the period of 2010 to 2024. To capture both static and dynamic relationships among the variables, we have applied complementary econometric methodologies that allow for cross-country heterogeneity and persistence in emissions. The estimated outcomes show that urban expansion and energy consumption are significantly increasing gas emissions, and this outcome is consistent with the idea that environmental costs of urban-led growth and energy-intensive development. But as we have added environmental taxes as a moderating policy instrument, the positive impact of energy consumption and urbanisation on emissions becomes negative in most specifications. The significant impact of both interaction terms, i.e., environmental taxes and urbanisation, and environmental taxes and energy consumption, across different estimation strategies, suggests that environmental taxation weakens emissions and encourages structural change with rising energy use. Renewable energy consumption and foreign direct investment have significant influences on emissions, emphasising the role of energy structure and investment composition in shaping environmental outcomes, whereas the income effect varies across models. The outcomes of dynamic models also confirm emissions persistence, but over time, environmental taxes reduce the degree of emissions persistence. The estimated outcomes imply that environmental taxes can support a decoupling of urbanisation and energy-driven growth from environmental degradation. Thus, developing countries should balance urban development, energy demand, and environmental sustainability through credible market-based regulations. |
| Keywords: | urban expansion; energy consumption; environmental sustainability; environmental taxes |
| JEL: | Q3 Q5 R0 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128856 |
| By: | Henri Herrmann; Félix Michelet; Oliver Ruhnau |
| Abstract: | We estimate household electricity demand responses to hourly prices under real-time pricing using Finnish smart-meter data, contrasting results under the European energy crisis with those from previously relatively stable market conditions. Methodologically, we show that the standard wind-based IV approach, which instruments prices with day-ahead wind generation forecasts, can be biased in residential settings with electric heating, because local wind conditions directly shift electricity demand through heating-related channels. Controlling for hourly local wind speeds provides a simple correction that preserves a strong first stage and reduces IV price coefficients by about 70 percent before the crisis and about 40 percent during the crisis. Yet, elasticities remain significant at -0.020 and -0.041, respectively. The direct wind effect on demand is economically meaningful: a 1 m/s increase in local wind speed raises hourly consumption by about 1 percent, comparable to the demand response induced by a 25–30 €/MWh price increase. Translating the elasticities into bill impacts yields mean annual per-household savings from short-run demand response of about €15.57 before the crisis and about €104.27 during the crisis, indicating moderate savings relative to total annual electricity expenditures. |
| Keywords: | real-time pricing, electricity demand elasticity, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | Q41 C26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12617 |
| By: | Appelbaum, Elie; Melatos, Mark |
| Abstract: | We model equilibrium carbon emissions and welfare in an imperfectly competitive two-country world in which countries strategically choose carbon taxes to maximize national welfare. Each country trades off total national surplus and the cost of global carbon emissions, but differs in its degree of concern about global emissions (CAE) and in its carbon efficiency (CE). We show that CAEs and CEs influence the strategic interaction between countries and, hence, Nash equilibrium carbon taxes, emissions and welfare. Our simulations demonstrate that there is no clear-cut relationship between equilibrium emissions and welfare. While an increase in one country’s CAE reduces global emissions -and global welfare - individual country emissions and welfare may rise or fall. Moreover, an increase in a country’s CE does not guarantee lower emissions or higher welfare nationally or globally. Our results suggest that international trade can reduce global emissions; consumers can access more carbon-efficient sources of production. |
| Keywords: | Optimal carbon taxes, carbon emissions, strategic carbon taxes, best-reply functions, carbon efficiency, emission aversion. |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F18 Q54 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–11–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128066 |
| By: | Fiona Burlig; James Bushnell; David Rapson |
| Abstract: | Despite the importance of program participation for policy, treatment effects are often measured on self-selected samples. We study electric vehicle (EV) managed charging, intended to reduce electric grid strain by optimally allocating charging across EVs. Prior work finds large impacts of managed charging among households who volunteer for an RCT. In contrast, we test managed charging with an experiment including all EVs within a California utility. Enrollment is low even with high incentives, and we can reject even modest intent-to-treat effects on electricity consumption. Managed charging is less effective than previously thought, underscoring the value of population-wide experiments. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicles; managed EV charging; demand response; program take-up; field experiment; time-of-use pricing; electricity demand; load shifting |
| JEL: | Q41 Q48 C93 D12 |
| Date: | 2026–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:103079 |
| By: | Yang Li; Ketan Ahuja; Karan Daryanani (Harvard's Growth Lab); Ricardo Hausmann (Harvard's Growth Lab); Muhammed A. Yildirim (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | The energy transition offers countries that can manufacture clean energy technologies substantial opportunities for sustainable economic growth. This paper provides a framework for context-aware industrial policy by applying economic complexity theory to a newly constructed dataset of twelve key clean energy supply chains (CESCs). We find that CESCs are diverse but highly interdependent; they are also growing faster and are more concentrated than other industries. CESCs exhibit substantial entry, exit and competitive churn, and countries are more likely to enter CESC industries that are related to their existing productive capabilities. We also explore changing global competitiveness and country positioning in these industries, and draw out implications of these patterns for industrial policymakers. |
| Keywords: | clean energy, supply chain, principle of relatedness, economic complexity, industrial policy |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:268 |
| By: | Shoko GOTO; Kenji TAKEUCHI |
| Abstract: | This study explores the impacts of carbon pricing on the international competitiveness of manufacturing sectors. We develop a simple theoretical framework to examine the link between carbon pricing and changes in market shares that may lead to carbon leakage. The framework distinguishes between direct and indirect impacts by considering shifts from domestic to foreign inputs in the production of final goods. Using the European Union Emissions Trading System as an empirical setting, we estimate the effects of carbon pricing on the home country’s market share in both targeted input sectors and non-targeted output sectors. Our results show that unilateral carbon pricing slightly weakens the competitiveness of the home country in the markets of the targeted sectors, potentially increasing the risk of carbon leakage. In contrast, competitiveness in non-targeted sectors is largely unaffected. Overall, the findings suggest that unilateral carbon pricing primarily influences the targeted sectors, with no compelling evidence of spillover effects on non-targeted sectors. |
| Keywords: | Carbon pricing, Competitiveness, Carbon leakage, Trade |
| JEL: | F18 H23 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-25-002-v2 |
| By: | Huynh, Benjamin; Koenecke, Allison |
| Abstract: | The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint, with concerns of disruption arising from conflict. We quantify trade dependencies across 172 countries, finding 19.6% [95% Interpercentile Interval: 17.4, 21.8] of global fossil fuel trade transits the strait, and that lower income countries are disproportionately dependent on Hormuz-sourced fertilizer. Countries doubly dependent on Hormuz-sourced energy and fertilizer face pre-existing humanitarian crises, indicating global structural vulnerability. |
| Date: | 2026–04–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4v3b9_v1 |
| By: | Bratanova, Alexandra; Chen, Haohui; Pham, Hien; Tursunalieva, Ainura; Dunstall, Simon; Schleiger, Emma; Dunne, Rob |
| Abstract: | This report explores the vulnerability of the Australian population to extreme heat events compounded by electricity supply loss (LOS), a growing risk due to climate change and infrastructure stress. In collaboration with Energy Networks Australia, CSIRO developed a heat vulnerability index using the Exposure-Sensitivity-Adaptive capacity (ESA) framework to assess risk across approximately 61, 800 Statistical Area Level 1 (SA1) regions. The study identifies geographic patterns of vulnerability and provides strategic, tactical, and operational recommendations for enhancing community resilience. The findings support the integration of vulnerability mapping into energy sector planning and emergency response to better protect public health during heatwave-induced power outages. |
| Keywords: | heat vulnerability; Australian population; power outage; sensitivity; adaptive capacity |
| JEL: | H42 H51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124779 |
| By: | Jose Ramon Albert (Philippine Institute for Development Studies); Abdul Abiad (Asian Development Bank); Arturo Martinez Jr. (Asian Development Bank); Madhavi Pundit (Asian Development Bank); Milan Thomas (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Public support for climate policies that improve the region's resilience is crucial given climate risks. This paper contains the analysis of data from 13, 547 respondents across 14 Asian economies, following a survey completed in July 2024. The analysis reveals widespread climate concern (91% of respondents see it as a serious problem), with notable differences across economies (28%–81%). Support for climate policies varies. Low carbon infrastructure receives broad backing (50%–76%) while support for carbon taxation is mixed (37%–74%). Respondents aged 55 and above generally demonstrate stronger policy support than younger ones. Income effects reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship, with middle-income households (those earning $25, 000– $49, 999 annually) showing the highest support. Econometric analysis identifies policy awareness as the variable most strongly associated with support, followed by personal climate experiences and demographic factors. Opposition stems from concerns over economic burden, implementation effectiveness, and fairness. While climate concern varies across economies, policy support is more uniform, suggesting adaptable policy design principles. These findings suggest the need for targeted communication and policy designed to address economic impacts and implementation concerns. |
| Keywords: | climate policy support;public perceptions;Asia;policy preferences;climate concern |
| JEL: | C83 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–04–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:022455 |
| By: | Esther Arenas-Arroyo; Jacob Fabian; Friederike Mengel; Bernhard Schmidpeter; Michel Serafinelli |
| Abstract: | How does firms' skill demand change as the business landscape evolves? We present evidence from the green transition by analyzing how hurricanes impact demand for green skills. These disasters signal the risks of not acting on environmental issues. Using data from U.S. online job postings (2010-2019) and hurricane paths, we create a new measure of green job postings. Firms in areas affected by hurricanes are 6.4% more likely to post jobs that require green skills after the event, particularly those serving local markets. |
| Keywords: | Green skills, Green transition, Online job postings |
| JEL: | J23 Q54 L20 J24 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2563 |
| By: | Steven F. Koch; Yuxiang Ye |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:ersawp:894 |
| By: | Matthias Burgert; Matthiey Darracq Paries; Luigi Durand; Mario González; Romanos Priftis; Oke Röhe; Matthias Rottner; Edgar Silgado-Gómez; Nikolai Stähler; Janos Varga |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a novel model comparison to examine the challenges posed by changes in carbon-intensive energy prices for monetary policy. The employed environmental monetary models have a detailed multi-sector structure. The comparison assesses the effects of both a temporary and a permanent energy price increase with a particular focus on the euro area and the United States. Temporary and permanent price shocks are both inflationary. However, the inflationary impact of the permanent shock depends on the underlying model assumptions and monetary policy response. The analysis also establishes that these models share large commonalities in their quantitative and qualitative results, while also pointing out cross-country differences. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1067 |
| By: | Moritz Lubczyk; Maria Waldinger |
| Abstract: | What are the long-run effects of sustained exposure to air pollution? A unique natural experiment allows us to examine this question. In 1982, a sudden cut in Soviet oil forced Socialist East Germany to switch to highly polluting lignite coal. While the shock sharply increased air pollution near mining regions, authoritarian restrictions on mobility, housing, and jobs prevented sorting responses. We document persistent labor market impacts over three decades. Exposed individuals work less, earn lower wages, and retire earlier. Health is a key mechanism: infant mortality rises by 9% and the long-run incidence of asthma and cardiopathy increases significantly. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, labor supply, migration, place effects |
| JEL: | I15 J24 J60 N54 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2585 |
| By: | Langthaler, Margarita; Catalán Lorca, Marcela |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the topic of green transitions has attracted considerable attention. Notably, these transitions are often framed as a skills issue, reflecting perceived gaps in the technical skills required for green technologies. Moreover, skills are frequently presented as central to ensuring that green transitions are socially just. Since the 2010s, international organisations have played a leading role in shaping the green skills debate, with their policy literature exerting significant influence, particularly in the Global South. However, the global debate lacks conceptual clarity. The term 'green skills' encompasses a wide range of meanings. From the perspective of the Global South, additional questions emerge. What do green transitions imply for informal economies and subsistence agriculture? What does it mean, in such contexts, to ensure a just transition? What role can vocational and technical education (VET) systems play and what do they need to meet these expectations? This paper seeks to address part of this gap by analysing green skills publications produced by international organisations, with a particular focus on the Global South. It examines the underlying conceptualisations of green skills and green transitions. |
| Keywords: | green transition, skills issue, vocational education and training, education policy transfer, social dialogue, human development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:oefsew:340187 |
| By: | Jean Langlois-Berthelot; Christophe Gaie (Institut d'Administration des Entreprises (IAE) - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | The European videogame sector went through a period of accelerated stress between 2022 and 2025, driven by external technological dependencies, volatile energy conditions and fragmented governance . This article uses an updated form of Net Assessment to examine the sector as part of the European Union's broader economic and digital security landscape. Three structural factors emerge as central: the high degree of dependency on non-European GPU supply chains, the role of electricity stability as a critical operational flow and the effects of multi-level regulatory fragmentation. |
| Keywords: | economic security, digital sovereignty, technology supply chains, video game sector, .12.2025]. 3 H. Farrell interdependence: How global economic networks Net Assessment economic security digital sovereignty technology supply chains video game sector, .12.2025]. 3 H. Farrell, interdependence: How global economic networks Net Assessment |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05504241 |
| By: | Hardman, Scott PhD |
| Abstract: | Public direct current (DC) fast charging infrastructure is expanding across California and remains supported by public funding. Many charging stations face challenges becoming financially sustainable, and some are located in areas that lack the amenities drivers want while they wait for their vehicles to charge. As California continues to invest in charging infrastructure to support electric vehicle (EV) adoption, understanding what drivers do while at fast chargers, and whether they visit and spend money in nearby businesses, can help inform decisions about infrastructure deployment and could improve the business case for DCFC. To better understand EV drivers’ activities at DC fast chargers, we surveyed 3, 350 EV drivers in California. The survey examined what drivers do while charging, what they spend money on during charging sessions and how much, which amenities they prefer to have nearby, and how they describe their overall charging experience. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2026–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0pg9215q |
| By: | Å tÄ›pán Mikula; Mariola Pytliková |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how improvements in air quality affect migration behavior. We exploit a natural experiment in the Czech Republic, where rapid desulfurization of coal-fired power plants in the 1990s led to a sharp reduction in SO2 pollution - from extremely high levels to below EU/WHO limits - without directly impacting economic activity. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that cleaner air reduced emigration from previously heavily polluted municipalities by 24% and increased net migration by 78%, with effects strongest in the most polluted areas. The impact was particularly pronounced among highly educated individuals. Migration responses were strongest in municipalities with weaker social capital and fewer public amenities, suggesting that environmental improvements matter most where other local advantages are limited. In contrast, anti-emigration monetary subsidies-such as those offered during the socialist period in polluted areas-had no effect. Overall, our findings highlight the potential of environmental policies to support re-population and regional revitalization-especially when combined with investments in infrastructure and public services. |
| Keywords: | Air quality; Migration; Natural experiment |
| JEL: | J61 Q53 R23 O3 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2581 |
| By: | Abdullah AlHassan (International Monetary Fund); Luc Leruth (University of Clermont Ferrand); Adnan Mazarei (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Charles Meuwly (ZENO-Indices); Joseph Moussa (International Monetary Fund); Pierre Regibeau (Warsaw School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Key Takeaways - A small group of large firms dominates the global petrochemical industry, with ownership heavily concentrated among corporations and geographically in China, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. - Ownership does not equal control. Chinese and other Asian investors exert significant control, while US investors exercise limited control due to reliance on passive investments. Saudi Arabia has full control over its investments. - Europe has weak control and limited presence in the petrochemical industry, with very few major companies, leaving it more dependent on external suppliers. Petrochemicals--used in everything from fertilizers, solar panels, clothing, and cosmetics to electric vehicles, electronics, and medicines--are integral to food security, manufacturing, and clean energy. They are also becoming the fastest-growing source of demand for oil. The 2026 conflict in the Middle East has exposed vulnerabilities in petrochemical supply chains, especially since Middle Eastern producers account for much of the global supply of key petrochemical products, including fertilizers, and one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade transits the Strait of Hormuz. Understanding the petrochemical industry, including its size, geographical distribution, and ownership and control structure, is essential to reduce risks from geopolitical shocks, hostile takeovers, and fragile supply chains. |
| JEL: | G3 L1 L7 Q3 Q5 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp26-4 |
| By: | Meng Yu Ngov; Pierre-Louis Vézina; Trang Thu Tran; Gaurav Nayyar |
| Abstract: | We document how foreign firms, inputs, and subsidies have shaped the development of Viet Nam's solar panel industry. We use firm-to-firm transaction data from Panjiva as well as firm-level data from the Vietnamese Enterprise Survey to trace solar panel value chains. We uncover three key findings: First, parts and components from subsidizing countries are 30% cheaper than alternatives. Those from China, which provides the majority of solar inputs to Vietnamese producers, are cheapest. Foreign subsidies may thus spill over across countries via value chains. Second, Chinese FDI firms dominate Viet Nam's solar industry, accounting for 75% of exports and 50% of jobs, while exporting solar panels that are 38% cheaper than those of other producers in Viet Nam. Third, local firms supplying parts and components to these Chinese FDI firms experience positive productivity gains. Our findings show how Viet Nam's solar boom emerged through deep integration into China's subsidized supply chains. |
| Keywords: | global value chains, green subsidies, FDI |
| JEL: | F14 F23 Q42 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25138 |
| By: | Geoffrey Heal; Marcella Lucchetta |
| Abstract: | We explore how pro-social preferences interact with asymmetric ambiguity to influence investment decisions. We develop a model where financial returns are ambiguous (e.g., due to policy uncertainties), while social impact returns are risky or less ambiguous. Employing Gilboa-Schmeidler maxmin and Klibanoff-Marinacci-Mukerji smooth ambiguity frameworks, we demonstrate that pro-social motives act as a hedge, mitigating ambiguity aversion and reducing effective hurdle rates for ambiguous assets. This mechanism explains the resilience of impact investing in bridging environmental funding shortfalls and offers policy insights into how blended finance and standardization can convert ambiguity to risk. Distinct from prior work on blended finance structures, this study emphasizes the behavioral hedging role of social preferences in sustainable finance, with implications for accelerating just transitions amid polycrises. |
| JEL: | D81 G11 O13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35116 |
| By: | Felipe Martínez |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the heterogeneous effects of monetary policy and oil price shocks on inflation across the income distribution in Chile. We find that a contractionary monetary policy shock significantly reduces inflation for all income deciles, with a larger decline for high-income households. This differential response is mainly driven by price changes in the Transport category, which accounts for a larger share of expenditures among these households. By contrast, an oil price shock significantly increases cumulative inflation. Although the initial impact is stronger for high-income households, the effect becomes larger for low- and middle-income households as the shock propagates to other sectors, driven by a comparatively stronger price response in the Food category. Moreover, we document substantial dispersion in household-level inflation rates and show that low-income households experienced higher cumulative inflation than their high-income counterparts between 2009 and 2023. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1076 |
| By: | Carbajal-De-Nova, Carolina; Venegas-Martínez, Francisco |
| Abstract: | Objective: This research analyzes economic growth and environmental degradation in upper-middle-income countries using a panel data model to explore heterogeneity between them. Methodology: A panel econometric specification is used to analyze the heterogeneity between economic growth and environ- ment in a sample of upper middle-income countries: Argentina, Brazil, China, Guatemala, Mexico, Peru, Thailand, with fixed and random individual effects. Data: Annual global development indicators from the World Bank on carbon dioxide emissions per capita (CO2pc) and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) for the period 1990 to 2020 are used. Results: Empirical results show for both Mexico and the rest of the 6 countries studied, the absence of an Environmental Kuznets Curve (CAK) in the period analyzed. // Objetivo: Esta investigación analiza el crecimiento económico y degradación ambiental en países de ingreso medio alto utilizando un modelo de datos panel para explorar la heterogeneidad entre ellos. Metodología: Se utiliza uan especificación econométrica de panel para analizar la heterogeneidad entre crecimiento económico y medio ambiente en en una muestra de países de ingreso medio alto: Argentina, Brasil, China, Guatemala, México, Perú, Tailandia, con efectos individuos fijos y aleatorios. Datos: Se emplean indicadores mundiales de desarrollo anuales del Banco Mundial sobre las emisiones de bióxido de carbono per cápita (CO2pc) y el producto interno bruto per cápita (PIBpc) para el período de 1990 a 2020. Resultados: Los resultados empíricos muestran tanto para México como para el resto de los 6 países bajo estudio la ausencia de una Curva Ambiental de Kuznets (CAK) en el período analizado. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, environmental Kuznets curve, environmental degradation, panel model. |
| JEL: | Q51 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128860 |
| By: | Tenaw, Dagmawe (Department of Economics and Management “Marco Fanno”, University of Padova, Italy); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Llorca , Manuel (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | Electrification is a key driver of human welfare, yet its role on internal migration remains underexplored. This paper studies how reliable electrification influences migration dynamics in Ethiopia, a rapidly electrifying country with sizable internal mobility, by combining a spatial perspective with analysis of local economic effects. We first adopt an electrification-augmented gravity model of internal migration and explore the origin vs destination effects of regional electrification. We then complement this approach with a community-level analysis to uncover underlying mechanisms. Leveraging different rich administrative surveys combined with satellite-based nighttime luminosity, we find that electrification at destinations acts as a strong pull factor, attracting both rural- and urban-origin migrants. In contrast, the effect of origin electrification is non-linear, with its migration-inducing effect dominating and operating mainly through urban-directed flows. The community-level analysis reinforces the gravity-based findings, showing that reliable electricity is strongly associated with a higher (lower) likelihood of a community becoming a net receiver (sender) of migrants and experiencing higher inward (outward) labor mobility. Improved access to public services and local employment sources are the main channels at play. Overall, we provide policy-relevant insights into the role of reliable electrification in shaping demographic dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Gravity model; Migration; Labor mobility; Reliable electricity; Nighttime luminosity |
| JEL: | J61 O18 Q40 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2026_008 |
| By: | Giovanna D'Adda; Simone Ferro; Tommaso Frattini; Alessio Romarri |
| Abstract: | Using large-scale high-granularity data from a food delivery platform and granular pollution and weather information, we study how PM2.5 fluctuations affect riders' absenteeism, productivity, and accidents. Exploiting exogenous pollution variation from inverse boundary layer height, we find that higher pollution increases absenteeism for all workers and raises delivery times and accident rates only among (e-)bike riders, who must exert physical effort while working. Affected workers compensate productivity losses by working longer hours. Monetary incentives mitigate the effects on absenteeism but do not offset the decline in productivity and appear to exacerbate accident risk. |
| Keywords: | Air Pollution; Food Delivery Riders; Absenteeism; Labor Productivity; Workplace Safety. |
| JEL: | H4 J28 Q52 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25123 |
| By: | Curtin, Finbar; Burgess, Matthew G. |
| Abstract: | Empirical models of the macro-level climate-economy relationship project climate change impacts ranging from trivial to catastrophic. This wide range suggests identification challenges. Here, we show that such models indeed face identification challenges that are axiomatic and irreducible. The climate-economy relationship has qualitatively important variation across space and time, due to complex regional heterogeneity and affluence-driven adaptation, among other factors. Empirical models must assume away some of this variation to preserve degrees of freedom. Influential observations caused by economic disasters and miracles, along with low signal-to-noise ratios, create additional challenges. We illustrate these challenges theoretically and then empirically by replicating and sensitivity testing prominent climate-econometric studies. The estimation challenges create economically meaningful sensitivities and fragilities. We recommend a cautious and uncertainty-emphasizing approach to applying climate econometrics to public and private decision-making. Importantly, however, our analysis does not dismiss the existence of a negative carbon externality nor economically beneficial efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. |
| Date: | 2026–04–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:g8khf_v2 |
| By: | Fernando E. Alvarez; David Argente; Diana Van Patten |
| Abstract: | We study the resilience of payment systems to large disruptions in digital infrastructure caused by natural disasters and outages. While advanced economies have rapidly shifted toward electronic payments, these systems depend critically on electricity and information technology, raising concerns about their reliability during crises. We combine high-frequency county-level electricity outage data with detailed weather records, transaction-level expenditure data, household scanner data, and new representative surveys from the United States, Spain, and Sweden. Event-study evidence shows that natural disasters---especially hurricanes---generate persistent outages that sharply reduce expenditures. Natural disasters by themselves do not alter households' choice of payment method; instead, shifts toward cash arise through three channels: electronic payment methods become unavailable, households increase cash holdings for precautionary reasons, and cash is subsequently spent once available ("cash burn"). Consistent with these mechanisms, payment composition shifts markedly: spending rises before disasters due to stockpiling, largely financed with credit, while after disasters digital payments decline and cash usage rises, particularly in areas experiencing outages. Survey evidence confirms that nearly half of consumers are unable to use their preferred electronic payment during outages and that cash serves as a key fallback. Exploiting variation in cash holdings across households and locations, we find that greater access to cash increases the likelihood of completing transactions during outages and mitigates expenditure declines. Complementary survey evidence and the immediate response to our information treatment show that outages and official guidance increase desired cash holdings. Finally, we embed an RCT in the NielsenIQ panel: roughly half of panel households receive authoritative preparedness guidance, and we follow their realized purchases through the subsequent hurricane season. This design provides a clean framework for causal identification of whether greater cash preparedness smooths consumption during weather shocks. Together, the observational, survey, and experimental components of the paper show that cash plays a critical role in sustaining economic activity during payment-system disruptions and point to the value of offline-capable payment instruments, including CBDCs, in increasingly digital economies. |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35115 |
| By: | Eric Heyer (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Mathieu Plane (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Clémence Briodeau (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Sandra Daudignon (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Magali Dauvin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Pierre Madec (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Raul Sampognaro (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Xavier Timbeau (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Dans un contexte marqué par la hausse des prix des hydrocarbures, la consolidation budgétaire et les incertitudes, la croissance du PIB de la France serait de 0, 8% en 2026 (après 0, 9% en 2025). Cette baisse de la croissance est plus marquée en glissement annuel, passant de 1, 2% fin 2025 à 0, 7% fin 2026. En 2027, la croissance se situerait à 1 % mais ce scénario suppose un retour à la normale du marché international de l'énergie. L'inflation tirée, par le rebond des prix de l'énergie, dépasserait les 2% en glissement sur la seconde partie de l'année (1, 8% en moyenne annuelle) et impacterait négativement le pouvoir d'achat qui se contracterait en 2026 (-0, 7 % par unité de consommation, soit sa plus forte baisse depuis 2013), avant de se stabiliser en 2027. Sous l'impulsion de la baisse des taux réels et d'un pouvoir d'achat en berne, le taux d'épargne, encore très élevé fin 2025, se réduirait progressivement (passant de 17, 9% fin 2025 à 16, 9% fin 2027), soutenant une faible croissance de la consommation privée (+0, 7% en 2026 puis 1% en 2027). En revanche, l'investissement des ménages, après avoir connu une crise historique, repart à la hausse (+2, 3 % en 2026 et +2, 6% en 2027), soutenue par la baisse des taux et la hausse des crédits à l'habitat. L'investissement des entreprises résisterait, malgré les différents chocs et la hausse de la fiscalité sur les grandes entreprises. Soutenu par les gains de productivité, l'investissement dans le numérique et l'IA, et une demande qui repart en fin d'année, l'investissement des entreprises augmenterait de +0, 5% en 2026 et +0, 7% en 2027. L'emploi salarié continuerait à se contracter et perdrait 170000 emplois en deux ans, dont une partie serait compensée par les créations d'emplois dans le secteur non salarié (+130000). Le taux de chômage continuerait à se dégrader et passerait de 7, 9% fin 2025 à 8, 3% fin 2026, puis se stabiliserait à ce niveau en 2027. Le déficit public, après avoir baissé à 5, 1 % du PIB en 2025, se réduirait lentement (4, 8 % en 2026 et 4, 4% en 2027) malgré les efforts budgétaires, en raison notamment de la hausse des charges d'intérêts et de la faible croissance. La dette publique augmente de plus de 4 points de PIB entre 2025 et 2027 et frôle les 120 points de PIB en 2027. Toute autre évolution significativement différente de notre scénario central, autant sur le plan international avec le conflit en Iran, que les choix budgétaires en France en 2027 seraient à même de modifier notre prévision de croissance. En cas de scénario d'escalade du conflit, la croissance française serait attendue à 0, 4% cette année et à 0, 0% en 2027. Dans ce scénario, le risque de récession pour l'économie française serait très élevé. |
| Date: | 2026–04–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05593878 |