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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Zamora, Christian Marvin (University of the Philippine Baguio) |
| Abstract: | The 2026 US-Israel-Iran conflict and the resulting Strait of Hormuz disruption sent Dubai crude above $130 per barrel, acutely exposing the Philippines as an economy sourcing around 90% of crude from the Middle East. Using the 2023 IFPRI Nexus Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), this paper provides an economy-wide welfare assessment combining SAM multiplier analysis with Structural Path Analysis (SPA) across seven policy scenarios, including the enacted TRAIN excise suspension (RA 12316) and the UPLIFT emergency transfer framework (EO 110). At current shock levels, Philippine GDP contracts by 2.23% under full pass-through; the 50% baseline scenario, a conservative lower bound, yields a 1.12% contraction. Welfare losses are regressive, with the poorest rural households losing 2.4 times more income than the richest urban households, a ratio that persists regardless of the scale of excise relief due to its rank-neutrality. Pure targeted transfers without excise suspension deliver full protection to bottom-40% households at PHP 25.9 billion (0.09% of GDP), one-eleventh the cost of full tax suspension, providing a model-derived spending floor for the UPLIFT social amelioration programme. Pass-through management is the most powerful short-run instrument, cutting losses by three-quarters at 25% pass-through and exceeding the relief from full excise suspension. |
| Date: | 2026–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:yc459_v5 |
| By: | Lutz Kilian; Michael D. Plante; Alexander W. Richter; Xiaoqing Zhou |
| Abstract: | This paper shows how to assess the inflationary impact of the rise in the price of oil caused by the 2026 Iran War. We first generate projections of the quarterly price of oil from a calibrated DSGE model of the global economy under a range of scenarios and then incorporate these projections into a monthly VAR model of the impact of U.S. gasoline price shocks on inflation and inflation expectations. Our analysis speaks to the magnitude and persistence of the impact of higher oil prices on headline and core PCE inflation and on household inflation expectations. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk; rare disasters; oil prices; gas prices; inflation; structural VAR |
| JEL: | C54 E31 E37 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:103008 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | This article examines the implications of the European Union's recent energy policy developments, with a particular focus on the strategy to phase out Russian gas imports and diversify supply sources. It analyzes the vulnerabilities inherent in the EU's diversification approach, highlighting the introduction of new regulatory measures-most notably Regulation (EU) 2026/261-which establish strict controls to prevent the re-entry of Russian gas through third countries. These measures, including enhanced origin verification requirements, carry significant implications for external suppliers such as Azerbaijan and transit countries like Türkiye. The analysis identifies a structural dilemma facing the EU: despite diversification efforts, approximately 90% of its gas supply remains externally sourced, exposing the bloc to geopolitical risks, global price volatility, and long-term infrastructure lock-in. While dependence on Russian pipeline gas has declined sharply, the EU has increasingly shifted toward alternative suppliers, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, which accounted for an estimated 57% of EU LNG imports by 2025. This shift raises critical questions about whether diversification efforts are effectively reducing dependency or merely replacing one dominant supplier with another. The article argues that the EU's external energy policy must balance short-term energy security with long-term sustainability objectives. It concludes that the success of the EU's energy transition will depend not only on eliminating reliance on Russian gas but also on avoiding the creation of new structural dependencies. |
| JEL: | P16 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:339652 |
| By: | Niloofar Adel (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Andrea Bastianin (University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Luca Pedini (Marche Polytechnic University and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Marta Visconti (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | We quantify the contribution of Venezuela’s oil sector collapse to changes in global oil market responsiveness after 2007. We extend the multi-country structural model of Baumeister and Hamilton (2024) by modeling Venezuela explicitly and constructing a counterfactual production path that abstracts from the 2007 institutional shift. This counterfactual isolates the mechanical contribution of Venezuelan supply and provides an upper bound on its impact. We document a sharp decline in global short-run supply elasticity and a more than doubling of the oil price multiplier after 2007. Decomposition results show that this increase is driven primarily by a reduction in the effective inventory-related adjustment margin, with changes in other producers’ supply elasticities accounting for most of the remainder. By contrast, Venezuela’s contribution through its production share and contemporaneous supply elasticity is small. Restoring Venezuelan output raises global supply elasticity modestly but has limited effects on price amplification. |
| Keywords: | Crude oil, Sanctions, Supply shocks, Venezuela, OPEC |
| JEL: | C32 E32 L71 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2026.12 |
| By: | Paul Simshauser; Joel Gilmore |
| Keywords: | Renewables, coal, natural gas, dispatchable plant capacity |
| JEL: | D52 D53 G12 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2604 |
| By: | Sharp, Jared; Gardiner, Dan; Dietz, Simon; Bouckaert, Nicolas |
| JEL: | R14 J01 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137908 |
| By: | Paul Simshauser; ; |
| Keywords: | Strategic reserve, energy-only markets, resource adequacy |
| JEL: | D52 D53 G12 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2605 |
| By: | Hugo Delcayre (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Sébastien Bourdin (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School) |
| Abstract: | This study aimed to examine the reasons behind the wait-and-see and resistant attitudes of local elected officials regarding energy transition projects. Although there is consensus on the importance of renewable energy in combating climate change, its implementation at the local level often encounters opposition from several actors, including elected officials. This study identified the internal, external, and personal factors that influence this opposition by conducting semi-structured interviews with the French officials and stakeholders involved in the energy transition and by analysing the local and regional press. Our findings indicate that political strategies, regulatory complexities, and personal beliefs play significant roles in shaping officials' decisions regarding energy transition projects. Furthermore, by proposing a typology of elected officials according to their modes of opposition, we offer insights to promote effective and sustainable local energy transitions. |
| Keywords: | Agency, NIMEY, Social acceptability, Political resistance, Local authorities, Energy transition |
| Date: | 2025–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05568670 |
| By: | Mara Bala?a; Michael G Pollitt |
| Keywords: | Electricity market reform, industrial decarbonisation, industrial policy, industrial relocation, zonal electricity prices |
| JEL: | O14 R11 Q41 L9 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2602 |
| By: | Michael G Pollitt; Daniel Duma; Andrei Covatariu; Paul Nillesen |
| Keywords: | Distribution System Operators, energy transition, innovation |
| JEL: | L94 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2603 |
| By: | Owen Kay; Robert Reaser; Reid Taylor |
| Abstract: | Artificial-intelligence-driven data centers are reversing two decades of flat U.S. electricity demand and have generated questions about how this growth will impact electricity prices. We quantify this effect using an hourly, unit-level least-cost dispatch model covering wholesale electricity markets in the continental United States. We find that existing data centers have already increased wholesale prices by 3 to 5% on average nationwide, with substantially larger effects in regions hosting major data center corridors. Extending the model through 2028, we show that if proposed construction proceeds under high-utilization scenarios, wholesale prices could rise dramatically (50%), while more moderate build-out yields smaller (20%) but still meaningful effects. Impacts vary due to utilization and build-out assumptions. Finally, we use the model to address several policy discussions including optimal data center siting decisions and renewable build-out uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | electricity prices; energy; data centers; artificial intelligence |
| JEL: | L94 P18 Q41 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:102959 |
| By: | D. G. Whyte; A. Lo; R. Bielajew; M. Hancock; R. Moeykens; G. Shaw |
| Abstract: | Commercial fusion energy requires frameworks to assess both the scientific and economic viability of a wide variety of fusion concepts. Inspired by the Lawson criterion's ability to universally describe fusion energy gain, a generalized framework is developed to determine the economic gain of fusion power plants. The model exploits temporal equilibrium, and engineering and cost parameters normalized to the energy capture surface. The derived criteria for economic gain are therefore independent of the power plant's absolute power, impartial to the particulars of its fusion technology, and can be applied to any fusion confinement concept. The derivation of the economic gain factor, $Q_{econ}$, results in nonlinear equations with ten controlling normalized design parameters ranging from fusion power density and surface component lifetime to energy fluence, price of energy, and component efficiency and cost. These ten controlling parameters are varied over a wide range to provide high-level insights in design, finance and operational tradeoffs that improve the prospects for economically viable fusion energy. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.07367 |
| By: | Abhinav Das (Universität Ulm (Germany, Ulm)); Stephan Schlüter (Technische Hochschule Ulm (Germany, Ulm)); Lorenz Schneider (EM - EMLyon Business School) |
| Abstract: | This work integrates Bayesian regime detection with conditional neural processes for 24-hour electricity price forecasting in the German, French, and Norwegian markets. Regimes are inferred via a disentangled sticky hierarchical Dirichlet process hidden Markov model (DS-HDP-HMM). For each regime, an independent conditional neural process (CNP) learns localized mappings from input contexts to 24-dimensional hourly price trajectories; final forecasts are produced as regime-weighted mixtures of the regime-specific CNP outputs. Temporal robustness and cross-market generalization are evaluated on Germany (2021–2023) and on France and Norway (2023). We benchmark against deep neural networks (DNN), the Lasso estimated autoregressive (LEAR) model, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), Bayesian long short-term memory (BLSTM), and the temporal fusion transformer (TFT), and assess downstream value through battery storage optimization. Results indicate that the proposed regime-aware CNP often delivers higher profits or lower costs, while DNN can be exceptionally competitive in specific cost-minimization settings. Because point accuracy does not necessarily translate into operational optimality, we apply the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to aggregate forecasting and operational criteria. TOPSIS ranks the CNP as the leading model for 2023 and, overall, as the most balanced and consistently preferred solution across the considered markets. |
| Keywords: | Battery energy storage systems, Regime-aware prediction, MCDM, Electricity price forecasting |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05562231 |
| By: | Shobhit Singhal; Lesia Mitridati; Licio Romao |
| Abstract: | Renewable power sources have low marginal pro-duction costs, but may result in high balancing costs due to the inherent production uncertainty. Current day-ahead markets elicit only point production profiles and neglect the degree of uncertainty associated with each generating asset, preventing the market operator from accounting for balancing costs in day-ahead dispatch and ancillary service procurement. This increases total system costs and undermines market efficiency, especially in renewable-heavy power systems. To address this, we propose a new market clearing paradigm based on a two-stage mechanism, where producers report their production forecast distribution in the day-ahead stage, followed by the realized production in the real-time stage. By extending the Vickery-Clarke-Groves (VCG) payments to the two-stage setting, we show appealing properties in terms of incentive compatibility and individual rationality. An electricity market case study validates the theoretical claims, and illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed mechanism to reduce system costs. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.02455 |
| By: | Phetkeo Poumanyvong (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | ASEAN is entering a decisive phase in its energy transition. Regional energy demand is projected to rise substantially in the coming decades, while continued reliance on imported fossil fuels exposes economies to price volatility and supply disruptions. At the same time, climate risks are intensifying, underscoring the urgent need to accelerate decarbonisation without compromising economic growth. Bioenergy – derived from agricultural and forestry residues, organic waste, and energy crops – sits uniquely at the intersection of these dual imperatives. As the region’s most abundant renewable energy resource, bioenergy can support energy security, create rural livelihoods, enhance residue management, and deliver substantial emissions reductions when sustainably developed. Yet expectations must be balanced with realistic assessments of land and water availability, logistics, technology readiness, and sustainability governance. Overestimating the resource base or underestimating supply chain constraints risks undermining credibility, investment, and long-term policy goals. To ensure bioenergy contributes meaningfully to ASEAN’s energy transition, policymakers should prioritise waste and residue feedstocks, strengthen sustainability certification, invest in logistics infrastructure, foster technological innovation advance regional cooperation, and intraregional trade. Bioenergy will not replace fossil fuels outright, but as part of a diversified energy mix, it can help reduce reliance on fossil fuels, curtail waste burning, and support a just and inclusive transition – if governed with discipline and pragmatism. Latest Articles |
| Date: | 2026–03–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2025-21 |
| By: | Brennan, Dominic |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:globco:qt89z523bj |
| By: | Dugoua, Eugenie; Noailly, Joëlle |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the patterns and mechanisms of global clean technology diffusion over the last two decades. We document four stylized facts: uneven sectoral progress favoring power and light transport; China’s dominance in innovation and manufacturing; the role of modularity in driving cost declines; and limited adoption in developing economies. Through case studies of solar, electric vehicles, and hydrogen, we analyze how policy and infrastructure enable scale. Finally, we assess emerging challenges for the next phase of diffusion, including critical mineral constraints, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical fragmentation. |
| Keywords: | clean technology diffusion; climate change mitigation; renewable energy; industrial policy; solar photovoltaics; electric vehicles; hydrogen |
| JEL: | O33 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137824 |
| By: | Joshua Ostry (Geneva Graduate Institute and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs a high-frequency, news-based measure of rare earth supply shocks to examine how disruptions in these critical inputs affect global firm valuations. Using news articles between 2021 and 2025, I identify exogenous rare earth supply events, distinguishing between Chinese trade-restriction and global production shocks. Using a sample of 5800 public firms, I show that negative rare earth supply shocks, which are expected to raise input prices, cause significant and persistent declines in the equity prices of rare earth-exposed firms, especially those in the battery, semiconductor, and motor vehicle industries. Both trade and production shocks depress valuations, though trade restrictions shocks are particularly impactful. These findings highlight a financial channel through which the weaponization of critical-material supply chains transmits across global markets. |
| Keywords: | Rare earth elements; critical minerals; supply chains; supply shocks; large language models; geoeconomics; financial markets |
| JEL: | G14 F14 F51 Q02 |
| Date: | 2026–04–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp10-2026 |
| By: | Bastianin, Andrea; Casoli, Chiara; Kocenda, Evzen; Li, Xiao |
| Abstract: | The global energy transition is reshaping commodity demand, yet its implications for commodity risk transmission remain unclear. We analyze connectedness among Energy Transition Metals (ETMs) – a subset of metals that are key inputs in clean energy technologies – energy commodities, and industrial metals using a Quantile Factor VAR framework. We document strong state dependence: spillovers are substantially larger in the tails of the return distribution than at the median. While crude oil remains influential, its dominance weakens post-Covid as ETMs, particularly base ETMs, gain centrality. A complementary event-study shows ETM-related policy announcements amplify spillovers in extreme regimes, indicating structural reconfiguration and systemic implications. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:396404 |
| By: | Aguilar, Pablo; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Jouvanceau, Valentin; Meunier, Baptiste; Spital, Tajda |
| Abstract: | In April and in October 2025 China imposed export controls on rare earths amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. Although these measures were too short-lived to generate macroeconomic effects, they signalled China’s ability to draw on its dominant position in the rare earth supply chain. This paper provides a structured assessment of the potential macroeconomic consequences associated with rare earth supply disruptions. First, it documents that exposure to rare earth supply disruptions is concentrated in high-tech and security-sensitive sectors including automotive, electronics and defence-related industries. Second, drawing on earlier episodes of Chinese export restrictions on critical minerals (notably in 2010 and 2023), it highlights two key mitigating forces from the targeted countries’ perspective: practical and strategic constraints on China’s ability to implement strict export bans, and innovation-led substitution by targeted countries. Third, the paper quantifies the global macroeconomic implications of a hypothetical scenario of stringent but partial Chinese export restrictions on rare earths lasting for 18 months. To do so, the analysis combines, for the various segments of the transmission chain, a partial equilibrium setup, a closed-economy DSGE model, and the multi-country multi-sector dynamic model of Aguilar et al. (2026). The main results, across specifications, suggest estimated output losses for the United States ranging between 0.3% and 0.6%, with the largest impacts concentrated in automotive and electronics manufacturing. The results at the same time highlight the sensitivity of model-based estimates to assumptions on the substitutability of rare earths and the severity of restrictions. JEL Classification: F13, F17, C63, C68, Q37 |
| Keywords: | critical minerals, export ban, export restrictions, supply chain, trade modelling |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2026384 |
| By: | Goon, Robin; Scheer, Antonina |
| JEL: | R14 J01 F3 G3 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137851 |
| By: | Goon, Robin; Scheer, Antonina |
| JEL: | R14 J01 F3 G3 N0 |
| Date: | 2026–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137850 |
| By: | Cerruti, Stefania |
| Abstract: | In 2025, the UK Government published a review of HM Treasury’s ‘Green Book’, the policy appraisal handbook used by UK public organisations in appraising, evaluating and making decisions about spending proposals to ensure value-for-money (HM Treasury, 2025a). That review highlighted several issues that required further investigation and to be addressed in the new version of the Green Book. One of these was the use of the discount rate, which needed to be reconsidered "...to make sure that the government is taking a fair view of the long-term benefits that arise from transformational investments" (ibid.). The Treasury appointed Professors Mark Freeman and Ben Groom to carry out a further review and present recommendations to the Government on the use of discount rates (HM Treasury, 2025b). Part of this review involved surveying the academic community on their views on different aspects of discount rates. CETEx submitted a response on 26 February 2026, which is presented below. |
| JEL: | E6 J1 |
| Date: | 2026–03–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137852 |
| By: | Hugo Morão |
| Abstract: | On April 28, 2025, the Iberian Peninsula experienced a complete electrical blackout affecting 47 million people across Spain and Portugal. Drawing from the ENTSO-E investigation, this paper examines the policy implications of this event for power system management during rapid decarbonization. The investigation identified an unprecedented cascade of generation disconnections triggered by overvoltage conditions, tracing the root cause to institutional rather than technical failures: regulatory barriers prevented the utilization of renewable capacity with certified voltage control capability, market design incentives misaligned operational decisions with real-time stability requirements, and governance fragmentation impeded coordinated crisis response. These findings offer lessons for policymakers navigating the tension between market efficiency and system security in renewable-dominated grids. |
| Keywords: | power systems; power blackout; renewable energy integration; electricity market design; grid services; energy policy. |
| JEL: | D47 E65 F15 L94 N74 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp04132026 |
| By: | Maximilian Bernecker; Felix M\"usgens |
| Abstract: | Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) can mitigate hard-to-abate emissions, e.g. from transport or industry. However, there is a wide variety of cost estimates for DACCS, driven, to a significant extent, by differences in electricity cost. At the same time, there is a notable gap in research that integrates direct air capturing systems into long-term energy system models. We separate direct air capturing, carbon transport, and carbon storage and integrate them into a European capacity expansion model for a fully decarbonised electricity system in 2050. We explore how two dimensions affect the total system costs of DACCS. The first dimension is the availability of CO2 storage locations: In one analysis, storage locations are restricted to offshore storage locations in the North Sea only, i.e. depleted natural gas fields. The alternative analysis comprises suitable storage locations distributed across Europe, including onshore. We find that limiting CO2 storage to North Sea sites increases overall capture costs by approximately 10 %. The second dimension is whether DACCS is analysed as stand-alone or integrated into the electricity system. We differentiate between three alternatives: fully isolated, fully integrated, and retrospectively added to an existing system. We find that neglecting system integration - i.e. treating direct air capture system as a stand-alone technology - increases capture costs by up to 30 %. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.05990 |
| By: | Azam, Mehtabul (Oklahoma State University) |
| Abstract: | India has achieved near-universal electrification, yet large inequalities persist in the reliability of the electricity supply. Combining high-resolution satellite-based measures of electricity reliability—defined as the share of nights with detectable illumination—with village-level census data, this paper shows that reliability remains systematically unequal across social groups. While Scheduled Caste villages largely track district-level reliability, Scheduled Tribe (ST) villages face a pronounced enclave penalty. Homogeneous ST enclaves (ST population ≥90%) exhibit 10.7 percentage points fewer illuminated nights than otherwise comparable villages within-district with low ST shares. We further identify a mobility trap: homogeneous ST enclaves are about 16.6 (16.0) percentage points more likely to remain energy poor in 2012 (2019) and 11.7 percentage points less likely to escape energy poverty between 2012 and 2019. These findings suggest that as access becomes universal, infrastructure exclusion increasingly operates through a less visible rationing of service quality in socially homogeneous tribal settlements. |
| Keywords: | electricity reliability, energy poverty, caste, tribes, India, night-time lights |
| JEL: | O13 O18 Q41 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18493 |
| By: | Calacino, Anthony (University of Oxford); Ahrenshop, Mats; Genovese, Federica (University of Oxford); pring, hayley |
| Abstract: | As climate change intensifies so does its salience and potential politicization in the news media. In line with asset-specific views of climate politics, we propose a framework to explain variation in climate reporting based on the interplay of local ecological risks from climate change and anticipated economic vulnerabilities linked to the energy transition away from fossil fuels. We argue that media responses to climate shocks depend on the relative presence of climate-vulnerable populations versus fossil-fuel stakeholders, and propose that different local configurations of asset-holders affect climate coverage and attribution in the media in different ways. In areas without a dominance of organized fossil fuel interests, ecological shocks generate more extensive media climate coverage and clearer links to fossil fuel emissions. By contrast, in local communities where carbon-intensive industries are very strongly embedded, climate coverage is dampened and attribution less frequent. We test these expectations using original media content data in cross-national and sub-national Global South contexts as well as elite interviews conducted in Brazil and Indonesia. Our findings show that fossil fuel presence crucially moderates both the volume and framing of climate reporting. The results highlight how carbon interests can constrain climate discourse at precisely the moments when public engagement with climate issues is most likely. |
| Date: | 2026–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:37juf_v1 |
| By: | Saida Daly ("Department of Economics and Finance, College of Business and Economics, Qassim University, P.O. Box 6640, Buraidah 51452, Qassim, Saudi Arabia Department of Economics Faculty of Economic Sciences and Management of Mahdia, University of Monastir, Monastir 5000, Tunisia" Author-2-Name: Author-2-Workplace-Name: Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - This study investigates the role of Islamic finance and green investment in promoting sustainable development in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Grounded in Shariah principles such as risk-sharing and ethical investment, Islamic finance provides a viable framework for supporting environmental transformation. Methodology/Technique – The GCC region provides a relevant context given its strong Islamic financial systems, hydrocarbon dependence, and sustainability-oriented national strategies. Using panel data from 2005 to 2022, the study employs a dynamic panel model estimated through the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to examine the effects of Islamic finance and green investment on CO₂ emissions per capita and renewable energy consumption, while controlling for GDP per capita, trade openness, and institutional quality. Findings – The findings indicate that Islamic finance and green investment significantly reduce emissions while promoting renewable energy adoption. Novelty – This study contributes to the literature by jointly examining their roles in shaping both environmental quality and energy transition in GCC countries, an area that remains underexplored. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Islamic finance, GCC, green investment, sustainability, SDGs, GMM estimation |
| JEL: | G21 Q43 Q56 O13 |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jfbr234 |
| By: | Diego Rodríguez |
| Abstract: | Como ocurrió de modo recurrente con la sucesión de Reales Decretos Ley tras el comienzo de la guerra en Ucrania, el recientemente convalidado Real Decreto Ley 7/2026, de 20 de marzo, por el que se aprueba el Plan Integral de Respuesta a la Crisis en Oriente Medio (RDL en adelante), va mucho más allá de un conjunto de medidas dirigidas a paliar los impactos del aumento del precio de la energía en las rentas de los consumidores. De hecho, las medidas aprobadas con ese objetivo son una parte pequeña de las 143 páginas del RDL y la mayor parte del articulado realiza una transformación importante de diversos aspectos de la regulación del sector energético, particularmente del eléctrico. El objetivo principal de este trabajo es analizar y valorar esos cambios. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdafen:2026-09 |
| By: | Nik Stoop (Department of Economics, University of Antwerp - Universiteit Antwerpen = University of Antwerp); Marijke Marijke Verpoorten (Department of Economics, University of Antwerp - Universiteit Antwerpen = University of Antwerp); Elie Lunanga (Department of Economics, University of Antwerp - Universiteit Antwerpen = University of Antwerp, Université catholique de Bukavu, Institut supérieur pédagogique de Bukavu); Sébastien Desbureaux (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | More than 560 million people in sub-Saharan Africa live without electricity. About 384 million live in countries classified by the World Bank as conflict-affected, where poverty, insecurity and weak institutions make large energy infrastructure investments risky. |
| Date: | 2026–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05572158 |
| By: | Andreas F. Buehler; Patrick Lehnert; Harald Pfeifer |
| Abstract: | We examine whether exposure to climate change-related natural disasters is associated with adolescents' aspirations to work in green occupation. Understanding adolescents' aspirations for such occupations is crucial for ensuring a workforce with green skills to contribute to the mitigation of climate change. Combining individual-level data on occupational aspirations, job task data for measuring the greenness of occupations, and administrative data on disaster events, we find that adolescents who were exposed to a natural disaster aspire to occupations with a higher percentage of green job tasks. The result of this exposure is stronger for individuals who are more environmentally aware or more likely to believe that environmental issues will improve. |
| Keywords: | Green Occupations, Natural Disasters, Aspirations, Occupational Choices |
| JEL: | J24 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iso:educat:0254 |
| By: | Salazar, Alejandra; Edmonds, Jae; Battiston, Stefano; Martinez-Jaramillo, Serafin; Zwerling, Matthew |
| Abstract: | Countries with a low share of global emissions may perceive their cooperation in decarbonization as less critical yet economically burdensome. While non-cooperating countries may benefit from reduced global emissions at lower direct costs, they can also face significant environmental consequences. This paper investigates an asymmetric scenario in which most countries engage in decarbonization efforts while a single country adopts a free-riding strategy, focusing on Mexico as a case study. Our study provides insights into investment needs compared to environmental implications for a country with a free-riding strategy. The investment needs under free-riding tend to be higher than a baseline scenario with globally low mitigation, and the environmental impacts significantly higher than initially considered. At the same time, the additional investment required in a globally coordinated decarbonization scenario may be smaller than expected: our results for Mexico show a Below 2C scenario requiring 20% more investment than the baseline, but only 11% more than the asymmetric scenario. These findings highlight the complex trade-offs faced by non-cooperating countries and emphasize the need to account for both economic and environmental dimensions along with global interactions when developing climate policy strategies. |
| Keywords: | national decarbonization; climate change; investment gap; net-zero emissions; transition scenarious; fragmented climate policy; agricultural emissions leakage |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2026–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137819 |
| By: | Amy Liffey; René Schumann; Sylvain Weber; Mehdi Farsi |
| Abstract: | This paper serves as a comprehensive reference for users of the Swiss Household Energy Demand Survey (SHEDS). SHEDS was conducted annually from 2016 to 2021, followed by two waves in 2023 and 2025; two further waves are scheduled in 2027 and 2029. So far, it provides a panel dataset of eight waves that span a 9-year period. We present recent updates to the panel, including data processing and data quality guidelines, and provide an overview of its evolving structure. In addition, we provide two applications that illustrate the research possibilities enabled by SHEDS. We use the first application to provide a description of how the data can be used to inform an agent-based model. The second application is a descriptive study of the evolution of car ownership patterns showcasing the potential of the survey's longitudinal dimension. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:26-05 |
| By: | Fayyaz Ahmad (Lanzhou University); Nabila Abid (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Junaid Aftab (Tongji University); Aamir Javed (UNICH - Universita' degli Studi "G. d'Annunzio" Chieti-Pescara) |
| Abstract: | Addressing the urgent challenge of climate change is a paramount global concern, with European economies showcasing commitment through the ambitious European Green Deal, COP, and sustainable development goals. However, the region's reliance on fossil fuels raises questions about the initiatives affecting the environmental neutrality goals in Europe. To find an answer to this, the present study investigates the impact of energy intensity and environmental tax revenues on environmental management efforts in terms of air, water, and waste pollution abatement in Europe by utilizing data spanning 1994 to 2020 for major European economies that held over 95 % of European economic output. The sample is grouped into two panels based on economic growth level. The study employs advanced econometric techniques to perform the preliminary checks, and GMM-PVR is used as the main study model. Aggregate panel findings reveal significant associations between energy intensity, environmental tax revenues, and environmental management. Notably, higher energy intensity is positively linked to increased environmental management activities, reflecting a commitment to address abatement goals and indicating funds are allocated toward pollution mitigation, aligning with Europe's emphasis on sustainability. Foreign direct investment has a negative relationship with environmental management. However, in Panel A, environmental tax revenues, economic growth, and trade openness reveal a negative impact on environmental management, suggesting that intense economic activities surpass the environmental tax revenue efforts to abate pollution, unlike Panel B, which is effective in pollution reduction. The study's policy implications stress enhancing the energy efficiency of economic giants while simultaneously strengthening mechanisms for utilizing environmental tax revenues and reinforcing environmental regulations to align foreign direct investment with sustainable practices. International collaboration is essential to ensure trade relations align with environmental goals, contributing to global efforts to combat climate change. |
| Keywords: | Trade openness, Foreign direct investment, Economic growth, Environmental management, Environmental tax revenues, Energy intensity |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05568611 |
| By: | André De Palma; Nathalie Picard (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Cet article analyse la recomposition des systèmes de mobilité à l’ère des contraintes climatiques en articulant choix modal, équipement automobile et organisation territoriale. Il montre que le report modal est largement conditionné par les trajectoires de possession de véhicule, caractérisées par une forte inertie, et ne peut être compris indépendamment des structures urbaines. La transition vers le véhicule électrique transforme la motorisation sans réduire mécaniquement la dépendance automobile, tandis que les SERM constituent un levier central dans les zones denses. Dans les zones peu denses, les véhicules autonomes offrent des opportunités, mais comportent des risques d’effet rebond. L’article plaide pour une approche systémique intégrant instruments économiques, démographie, changement de préférences, innovations et aménagement du territoire afin d’atteindre des objectifs climatiques, d’efficacité et de bien-être social. |
| Keywords: | Choix modal, équipement automobile, externalités, changement climatique, véhicules autonomes, véhicules électriques, SERM, mobilité urbaine, zones peu denses, structure urbaine, congestion, bien-être social |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R48 R52 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2026-08 |
| By: | Danqi Wei (Lanzhou University); Fayyaz Ahmad (Lanzhou University); Nabila Abid (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Amber Gul (Sichuan Agricultural University) |
| Abstract: | The advancement of renewable energy an essential stage toward achieving a low-carbon energy transition, with finance sector playing a significant role in this process. This study analyzes the impact of financial development on renewable energy technology innovation across 30 Chinese provinces from 2007 to 2019, focusing on key financial dimensions such as banks, bonds, stocks, and foreign direct investment. The research indicates that financial development significantly enhances innovation in renewable energy technology. Further heterogeneity analysis indicates that the inherent advantage of renewable energy resources impedes the pace of substitution for renewable energy technology innovation, while more market-oriented regions can more easily occupy the high value-added renewable energy technology innovation. The development pace of renewable energy technology innovation varies across regions, influenced by distinct renewable energy strategies. Foreign direct investment has produced contrary effects. The moderation test indicates that both investment-based and cost-based environmental regulations enhance the positive effect of financial capital on renewable energy technology innovation. The results establish a theoretical foundation for advancing renewable energy technology innovation and offer practical insights for facilitating the low-carbon transition in developing economies. |
| Keywords: | China, Environmental regulation, Renewable energy technology innovation, Financial development, Low carbon energy transition |
| Date: | 2025–03–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05568595 |
| By: | Catherine Leining (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Sasha Maher (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research (former)); Lucy Peake (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research (former)); Alessia Casamassima (European University Institute); Albert Ferrari (European University Institute (former)); Lea Heinrich (European University Institute); Simone Borghesi (European University Institute); Axel Michaelowa (University of Zürich) |
| Abstract: | Boosting climate mitigation funding from advanced economies (AEs) to emerging markets and developing economies is critical to achieving the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement. Understanding the narratives that drive public opinion and influence decision-making on funding mitigation abroad can help inform the design and communication of carbon market and climate finance policies that unlock more effective international climate cooperation. At an international dialogue convened in September 2025, experts from 14 AEs explored prominent public narratives on funding mitigation abroad and opportunities to shift those narratives for better outcomes. Core narrative themes related to the generation of benefits for both funders and hosts, the management of climate target risks, the integrity of funded mitigation, and national interests. To encourage public support, participants suggested reframing funding mitigation abroad in terms of partnering with others to tackle a global, collective issue; creating new market opportunities benefiting funders; investing in global and regional stability; reinforcing broader national objectives and processes; enhancing global mitigation effort; and finding the political middle ground. Participants recommended appealing to universal principles, values, and emotions. To build public trust in funding mitigation abroad, participants emphasised the importance of ensuring high-integrity carbon market and climate finance approaches, encouraging country-specific narratives from credible voices, and enabling more public participation and transparency in government decision-making processes. These insights highlight the need for deeper and more systematic research across diverse AEs to understand and transform public narratives on funding mitigation abroad. |
| Keywords: | Climate change mitigation, emissions trading, carbon markets, climate finance, international cooperation, Paris Agreement, Article 6, narratives |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–04–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:26_01 |
| By: | Malthouse, Eugene; Pilgrim, Charlie; Sgroi, Daniel; Accerenzi, Michela; Alfonso, Antonio; Ashraf, Rana Umair; Baard, Max; Banerjee, Sanchayan; Belianin, Alexis; Bhattacharjee, Swagata; Bhattacharya, Mihir; Brañas-Garza, Pablo; Cárdenas, Juan-Camilo; Carriquiry, Miguel; Choi, Syngjoo; Clochard, Gwen-Jiro; Denzon, Eduardo Ezekiel; Dessoulavy-Sliwinski, Bartlomiej; Dini, Giorgio; Dong, Lu; Ertl, Antal; Exadaktylos, Filippos; Filiz-Ozbay, Emel; Flecke, Sarah Lynn; Galeotti, Fabio; Garcia-Muñoz, Teresa; Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Hollard, Guillaume; Horn, Daniel; Huang, Lingbo; İriş, Doruk; Kiss, Hubert Janos; Koch, Juliane; Kovářík, Jaromír; Kwarteng, Osbert Kwabena Boadi; Lange, Andreas; Leites, Martin; Leung, Thomas Ho-Fung; Lim, Wooyoung; Morren, Meike; Nockur, Laila; Okyere, Charles Yaw; Oudah, Mayada; Ozkes, Ali I; Page, Lionel; Park, Junghyun; Pfattheicher, Stefan; Proestakis, Antonios; Ramos, Carlos; Ramos-Sosa, Mapi; Ashraf, Muhammad Saeed; Sanjaya, Muhammad Ryan; Schwaiger, Rene; Sene, Omar; Song, Fei; Spycher, Sarah; Staněk, Rostislav; Tanchingco, Norman; Tavoni, Alessandro; Te Velde, Vera; Vázquez-De Francisco, María José; Visser, Martine; Wang, Joseph Tao-Yi; Wang, Willy; Weng, Wei-Chien; Werner, Katharina; Wijayanti, Amanda; Winkler, Ralph; Wooders, John; Ying, Li; Zhen, Wei; Hills, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Collective action problems emerge when individual incentives and group interests are misaligned, as in the case of climate change. Individuals involved in these problems are generally considered to have two options: contribute toward public solutions such as global warming mitigation or free ride. However, many collective action problems today involve a third option of investing in a "private solution" such as local adaptation. The availability of this third option can lead to a private solution trap whereby private solutions are adopted, collectively optimal public solutions are not provided, and existing inequalities are exacerbated. We investigated the private solution trap with a collective action game featuring private and public solutions, wealth inequality determined by luck or merit, and participants from 34 countries. We found that the joint existence of private solutions and wealth inequality had a consistent effect across countries: Participants given a higher endowment adopted private solutions almost twice as often as those given a lower endowment, regardless of whether it was determined by luck or merit, and contributed proportionally less toward public solutions. Wealth inequality increased in every country and those given lower endowments were often left unprotected as public solutions were not provided. Across countries, cultural values of hierarchy and harmony were associated with preferences for private and public solutions, respectively. We also identified two universal pathways toward public solution provision: early contributions and conditional cooperation. Our findings highlight the ubiquity of the private solution trap, its cultural underpinnings, and its potential consequences for global collective action problems. |
| Keywords: | climate change; cross-cultural study; social dilemma; human cooperation; private solutions |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137840 |