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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Gregor, Leonard; Haucap, Justus |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on refinery margins, i.e. the difference between wholesale prices for road fuels (gasoline and diesel) and oil prices in Europe and Germany in particular. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wholesale road fuel prices net of taxes rose by more than 50 cents per liter, whereas crude oil prices increased by only about 30 cents per liter. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we compare refinery margins in Germany with those on the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) spot market, which serves as a European benchmark price. The results indicate that refinery margins in Germany increased by approximately 5-6 cents per liter relative to the ARA region after the invasion. We attribute this differential primarily to Germany's strong dependence on Russian Ural crude oil imports and to the presence of regional market power among German refineries. We further document substantial heterogeneity in treatment effects across both time and regions. In addition, the invasion was associated with a significant decline in fuel demand, with gasoline consumption falling by about 13% and diesel consumption by approximately 9%. |
| Keywords: | Event Study, Ukraine Crisis, Fuel prices, Wholesale markets |
| JEL: | C33 G14 H56 L13 L71 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:339575 |
| By: | Hinz, Julian; Mahlkow, Hendrik; Sogalla, Robin; Willmann, Gerald |
| Abstract: | • In March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz is closed. The shutdown blocks roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and one-quarter of its liquefied natural gas, triggering severe welfare losses in energy-dependent developing countries worldwide. • Standard trade models underestimate the impact because they miss the bottleneck mechanism: energy disruptions cascade through chemicals and fertilizer production into food prices, amplifying losses for the world's poorest countries. • Developing countries that depend on imported energy and fertilizers-particularly in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East-face the steepest food price increases and welfare losses. The aggregate global costs are moderate, but the burden falls disproportionately on the world's poorest: the USA loses just -0.07%, while countries in South Asia and Africa face losses 10-20 times larger. • A prolonged closure allows some market adjustment, but structural damage persists-and the timing during peak Northern hemisphere planting season compounds the food security risk. |
| Abstract: | • Im März 2026 ist die Straße von Hormuz geschlossen. Die Sperrung blockiert rund ein Fünftel des weltweiten Öls und ein Viertel des Flüssiggases, mit schweren Wohlfahrtsverlusten für energieabhängige Entwicklungsländer weltweit. • Standardmodelle unterschätzen die Auswirkungen, weil sie den Engpassmechanismus übersehen: Energiestörungen pflanzen sich über die Chemie- und Düngemittelproduktion in die Lebensmittelpreise fort und verstärken die Verluste der ärmsten Länder. • Entwicklungsländer, die auf importierte Energie und Düngemittel angewiesen sind-insbesondere in Südasien, Subsahara-Afrika und dem Nahen Osten-sind am stärksten von Nahrungsmittelpreissteigerungen betroffen. Die globalen Kosten sind moderat, doch die Last trifft die ärmsten Länder überproportional: Die USA verlieren nur -0, 07%, während Länder in Südasien und Afrika 10- bis 20-mal höhere Verluste erleiden. • Eine längerfristige Sperrung ermöglicht gewisse Marktanpassungen, doch die strukturellen Schäden bleiben bestehen-und der Zeitpunkt während der Hauptaussaatzeit auf der Nordhalbkugel verschärft das Ernährungssicherheitsrisiko. |
| Keywords: | Strait of Hormuz, Energy Security, Food Prices, Critical Inputs, Bottleneck Effects, Trade Disruption, Straße von Hormus, Energiesicherheit, Lebensmittelpreise, kritische Vorleistungen Engpass-Effekte, Handelsstörungen |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:339604 |
| By: | Gern, Klaus-Jürgen; Kooths, Stefan; Krohn, Johanna; Liu, Wan-Hsin; Reents, Jan |
| Abstract: | The world economy remained robust in 2025 despite the strains caused by the trade conflicts and the resulting increased uncertainty and entered the new year with decent momentum. However, the war with Iran now threatens to severely disrupt energy supplies, with potentially serious consequences for economic activity. It is, however, currently widely expected that production and transport of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf will return to normal levels relatively soon. In this case, which also forms the basis of our forecast, the effects would not be substantial and would be limited to a slight dampening of global production and a temporary rise in inflation. We therefore expect the global economy to remain on an upward trend, buoyed by strong impetus for trade and investment from the boom in AI technology. Monetary policy has been significantly loosened worldwide over the past year and is now supporting the economy in most countries. In addition, a number of countries are providing stimulus through fiscal policy. While the economic outlook in China remains clouded, the expansion in the United States should remain robust. In Europe, the gradual economic recovery is likely to continue from the second half of this year onwards, following a few months of slowdown caused by high energy prices. All in all, and unchanged from our forecast of last December, we expect global output - measured on the basis of purchasing power parities - to grow by 3.1 percent this year and 3.2 percent next year. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the developments in the Middle East, there is a significant risk of a considerable slowdown in the global economy. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkeo:339638 |
| By: | Hegemann, Hendrik; Wieland, Volker |
| Abstract: | In this note, we provide a brief first quantitative assessment of possible consequences of the energy price shock for euro area inflation. We consider different scenarios of more or less persistent increases of gasoline, diesel, natural gas, kerosine price increases on headline and core HICP inflation. The quantitative analysis is based on an estimated Bayesian Vector Autoregression model for the euro area. The model also accounts for transmission via electricity prices. The baseline scenario is based on the recent, average, price increases extending for two to three months, followed by a development determined endogenously within the BVAR. In this case, year-on-year inflation rises by about 1.5 percentage points by the first half of 2027. Core inflation rises by about 0.5 percentage points. If energy prices are assumed to return to February 2026 levels within a few months, the effects are much smaller and less persistent. Monetary policy should not respond directly to movements in energy prices and headline consumer price inflation. However, monetary policy would need to tighten in response to rising core HICP and domestic inflation. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:imfswp:339582 |
| By: | Georgios Gatsios; Christos Genakos; Stella Papadokonstantaki |
| Abstract: | We examine the short-run impact of price ceilings on retail gasoline prices in isolated oligopolistic markets, uniquely observing for which stations the regulation was binding and for which it was not. Leveraging daily pricing data and a difference-in-differences methodology, we find that, while binding stations naturally lowered prices, non-binding stations increased theirs, though there is substantial heterogeneity. Among non-binding stations, those with more favorable characteristics for collusion adjust prices faster, move closer to the ceiling, and exhibit lower price dispersion, consistent with more effective coordination. Our results provide evidence that the price ceiling acted as a focal point for collusion among non-binding stations, consistent with channels identified in tacit collusion theory. |
| Keywords: | price ceiling, tacit collusion, focal point, retail gasoline markets, oligopoly |
| Date: | 2026–04–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2169 |
| By: | Adel, Niloofar; Bastianin, Andrea; Pedini, Luca; Visconti, Marta |
| Abstract: | We quantify the contribution of Venezuela’s oil sector collapse to changes in global oil market responsiveness after 2007. We extend the multi-country structural model of Baumeister and Hamilton (2024) by modeling Venezuela explicitly and constructing a counterfactual production path that abstracts from the 2007 institutional shift. This counterfactual isolates the mechanical contribution of Venezuelan supply and provides an upper bound on its impact. We document a sharp decline in global short-run supply elasticity and a more than doubling of the oil price multiplier after 2007. Decomposition results show that this increase is driven primarily by a reduction in the effective inventory-related adjustment margin, with changes in other producers’ supply elasticities accounting for most of the remainder. By contrast, Venezuela’s contribution through its production share and contemporaneous supply elasticity is small. Restoring Venezuelan output raises global supply elasticity modestly but has limited effects on price amplification. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:396389 |
| By: | Emre Akusta |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the potential of renewable energy to reduce inflationary pressures arising from energy imports in Turkiye. Annual data for the period 1980-2022 are used in the analysis. In this study, unit root properties are examined using the Zivot-Andrews and Lee-Strazicich tests, both of which explicitly account for structural breaks. Cointegration is investigated via the Johansen and Hatemi-J cointegration tests. Long-run coefficients are subsequently estimated using the DOLS and FMOLS estimators. The robustness of the empirical findings is further assessed using the ARDL approach. In addition, an interaction term is constructed to measure the impact of renewable energy in alleviating inflationary pressures arising from energy imports. The results show that energy imports and exchange rate have an increasing impact on inflation, while renewable energy and the interaction term have a decreasing impact. DOLS, FMOLS, and ARDL results support each other. Moreover, in both models, the impact of renewable energy in mitigating inflationary pressures stemming from energy imports is stronger than the direct disinflationary impact of renewable energy. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.21815 |
| By: | Emmanuel Asane-Otoo (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Abigail O. Asare (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of energy poverty on subjective well-being in Germany using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) over the period 2010–2023. Exploiting within-individual variation, we estimate fixed-effects models using objective, subjective, and composite indicators of energy poverty. Energy poverty is associated with a statistically significant and economically meaningful decline in life satisfaction, even after controlling for income, health status, and household characteristics. The negative association persists among households that are not income-poor, indicating that energy poverty constitutes a distinct dimension of material deprivation. Effects are strongest for subjective and multidimensional indicators, highlighting the importance of perceived energy deprivation and lived experience. Causal mediation analysis suggests that these well-being losses operate primarily through psychological and emotional channels. These findings imply that policies targeting energy affordability and housing efficiency may generate substantial welfare gains beyond income-based support. |
| Keywords: | Energy poverty, Subjective well-being, Energy affordability, Multidimensional poverty, Panel data |
| JEL: | C23 I14 I31 Q48 D63 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:455 |
| By: | Thomas Klitgaard |
| Abstract: | China has spent considerable government resources to develop advanced electric technology industries, such as those that produce electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar panels. These efforts have spilled over to international trade as improvements in price and quality have increased the global demand for these goods. One consequence is that passenger cars and batteries have been disproportionately large contributors to the rise in the country’s trade surplus in recent years. This has not been the case, though, for solar panels, as falling prices due to a supply glut pulled down export revenues despite higher volumes. |
| Keywords: | China; exports; green technology; electric vehicles; solar panels; lithium batteries; industrial policy; electrification |
| JEL: | F1 O3 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:102920 |
| By: | Mónica Correa-López (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Mar Delgado-Téllez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Marta Suárez-Valera (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | La pandemia y la crisis energética asociada a la guerra de Ucrania han transformado con rapidez el panorama energético europeo. Los países de la Unión Europea han reducido su dependencia de proveedores de riesgo, impulsado mejoras de eficiencia y acelerado la penetración de energías renovables, lo que ha contribuido a disminuir el consumo primario y las emisiones. Sin embargo, estos avances conviven con importantes vulnerabilidades: limitadas interconexiones, necesidad de mayor almacenamiento energético y un grado insuficiente de electrificación en sectores clave. Por su lado, los precios mayoristas y minoristas de la energía han mostrado una elevada volatilidad, condicionada por la evolución del gas, la expansión renovable y factores específicos de cada economía. Estos movimientos han tenido un efecto directo sobre la competitividad, especialmente de los sectores industriales intensivos en energía. Mientras España ha logrado una mejora relativa del coste energético frente a varios socios europeos desde 2022, otros países mantienen precios elevados que afectan a su posición competitiva. El documento analiza estas dinámicas y sus implicaciones para la seguridad del suministro, la resiliencia del sistema y el cumplimiento de los objetivos climáticos. |
| Keywords: | transición energética, eficiencia energética, dependencia energética, precios de la energía, competitividad |
| JEL: | Q40 Q41 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2608 |
| By: | Luyi Gui; Tinglong Dai |
| Abstract: | AI and renewable energy are increasingly framed as a "power couple" -- the idea that surging AI electricity demand will accelerate clean-energy investment -- yet concerns persist that AI will instead entrench fossil-fuel carbon lock-in. We reconcile these views by modeling the equilibrium interaction between AI growth and renewable investment. In a parsimonious game, a policymaker invests in renewable capacity available to AI and an AI developer chooses capability; the equilibrium depends on scaling regimes and market incentives. When the market payoff to capability is supermodular and performance gains are near-linear in compute, developers push toward frontier scale even when the marginal megawatt-hour is fossil-based. In this regime, renewable expansion can primarily relax scaling constraints rather than displace fossil generation one-for-one, weakening incentives to build enough clean capacity and reinforcing fossil dependence. This yields an "adaptation trap": as climate damages rise, the value of AI-enabled adaptation increases, which strengthens incentives to enable frontier scaling while tolerating residual fossil use. When AI faces diminishing returns and lower scaling efficiency, energy costs discipline capability choices; renewable investment then both enables capability and decarbonizes marginal compute, generating an "adaptation pathway" in which climate stress strengthens incentives for clean-capacity expansion and can support a carbon-free equilibrium. A calibrated case study illustrates these mechanisms using observed magnitudes for investment, capability, and energy use. Decarbonizing AI is an equilibrium outcome: effective policy must keep clean capacity binding at the margin as compute expands. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.26678 |
| By: | Charlotte Sophia Bez; Jorge A. Bonilla; Brigitte Castañeda Rodríguez; Jorge H. García; Leonard Missbach; Farah Mohammadzadeh Valencia; Jan Christoph Steckel |
| Abstract: | Subsidizing fossil fuel consumption is at odds with climate change mitigation and a heavy burden on public budgets. Yet, efforts to reform such subsidies often face strong public opposition. We examine whether informing citizens about the effects of fossil fuel subsidy reform (FFSR) and complementary policy measures can increase public acceptance. We study this question using a novel survey experiment in Colombia, a country currently aiming at reforming existing fossil fuel subsidies. Building on Hoy et al (2026), our experiment exposes respondents to different information treatments, including from an innovative calculation of personal costs, and options for complementary policy measures. Leveraging a representative sample with more than 3, 600 respondents, we find that information provision alone has limited effects on public support, as citizens rarely update their - at times - incorrect beliefs. In contrast, policy design is crucial. Complementing FFSR with additional measures shifts public opinion from majority opposition to majority support. Informing about the environmental effects of FFSR is most effective and strongly increases support for environmentally oriented complementary policies. Opposition to FFSR without complementary measures remains primarily driven by concerns about impacts on poorer households. |
| Keywords: | political economy, public finance, subsidies, climate change, fossil fuels, energy policy, survey experiment, distributional impacts |
| JEL: | P16 H20 H23 D63 H22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12583 |
| By: | Simon Finster; Bernhard Kasberger; Simon R\"utten |
| Abstract: | In European day-ahead electricity markets, carbon allowance costs passed through by marginal fossil plants raise consumer expenditure and generate inframarginal rents for non-emitting generators. We propose a settlement modification: when the zonal day-ahead price exceeds a threshold, non-emitting generation is remunerated at the clearing price minus a fixed CO2 proxy deduction, while all other units continue to receive the uniform price. The mechanism thus reallocates a part of the inframarginal rents to consumers. Using hourly data we estimate static average expenditure reductions of about 8.5% in Austria and 4.7% in Germany in 2025. We discuss bidding incentives around the threshold, interactions with Contracts for Difference, implementation in coupled bidding zones, and a gas-cost variant for the 2022 energy crisis. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.25874 |
| By: | Akcan Balkir |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effectiveness and incidence of the renewable energy Production Tax Credit (PTC) and Investment Tax Credit (ITC). I leverage new geographical variation in the 2023 PTC and ITC to test whether renewable energy credits had real economic impacts. Communities with greater tax credits accumulated 32% more renewable energy capital and produced 28% more renewable energy compared to similar counties. These renewable investments had local economic spillovers, increasing county level construction wages by 7%. However, local increases in investment and wages from renewable projects did not improve political support for renewable energy, but rather increased opposition to congressional action on climate change by 2%. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.00582 |
| By: | Lundin, Erik (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | I estimate the cross-border effects of Swedish nuclear outages using hourly data on day-ahead prices, generation, and consumption across 15 bidding zones in Northern Europe from 2021 to 2024. I exploit unplanned outages as exogenous variation in nuclear supply and find that a 1 GW reduction in Swedish nuclear capacity increases the day-ahead price in the SE-Stockholm bidding zone by approximately 28 percent (17 EUR/MWh). Although less precisely estimated, prices in Finland, Denmark, and the Baltics increase by about 12–13 EUR/MWh. In Norway, contemporaneous price effects are largely offset by increased hydro generation, implying an intertemporal displacement of costs as reservoir levels decline. Since short-run demand is approximately inelastic within the relevant price range, changes in consumer surplus are well approximated by the price change multiplied by the quantity consumed. Abstracting from dynamic effects due to hydro substitution, Swedish consumers bear approximately half of the total short-run loss in consumer surplus, with Finland accounting for the largest share among neighboring countries. |
| Keywords: | Nuclear power; Electricity markets; Cross-border externalities; Generation adequacy; Market integration; EUPHEMIA |
| JEL: | F15 H25 L94 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1556 |
| By: | Cyrian Hallermeyer (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay, IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School, EDF R&D); Pascal da Costa (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay); Frederic Lantz (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School); Caroline Bono (EDF R&D); André Nekrasov (EDF R&D) |
| Abstract: | The decarbonization of the space-heating sector is a critical element in the global effort to transition to low-carbon energy systems. District heating (DH) systems are recognized as an effective way to combine low-carbon sources to provide heat for residential and tertiary sector buildings. As a proven technology for decarbonized electricity generation and with experience in coupling with DH networks, the hybridization of nuclear plants appears to be a promising technology to contribute to the low-carbon mix for space heating. However, considering the substantial investment required for this technology and the development of alternative low-carbon sources, such as biomass and large-scale heat pumps, the role of nuclear cogeneration in DH systems must be critically evaluated. This paper aims to identify key factors influencing the optimal transition pathways to low-carbon DH systems with the potential to include nuclear cogeneration plants. We seek to understand the advantages of nuclear cogeneration in a local context compared to alternative low-carbon heat production technologies. This paper contributes to the literature on the use of nuclear cogeneration for district heating. It conducts a comprehensive study of economic scenarios for optimal decarbonization of district heating networks, and includes heat transport aspects in the modeling and economic evaluation. |
| Date: | 2025–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05546335 |
| By: | Raschke, Jennifer; Schubart, Constantin |
| Abstract: | As the global energy transition accelerates, the renewable energy sector has emerged as a showplace for geopolitical competition. Amid intensifying geopolitical uncertainty, e.g. the trade frictions between the EU and China, European firms face the challenge of balancing cost efficiency with strategic sovereignty. This thesis therefore investigates how current trade tensions between the EU and China impact the supply chain strategies of German companies in the photovoltaics, wind, and battery sectors. Methodologically, the study combines a qualitative literature analysis with four semi-structured expert interviews with representatives from academia and policy think tanks. Based on a deductive-inductive coding approach, it identifies seven core risk categories and ten strategic response patterns. The findings reveal that the primary threat lies not in potential tariff or non-tariff trade barriers, but in a deep-seated, asymmetric dependence on China for critical raw materials and technological components. Consequently, while a full decoupling is deemed impractical, the research advocates for a robust de-risking framework centered on diversification of sourcing and production locations, nearshoring and friend-shoring, strategic partnerships with third countries, investments in technological innovation and circular economy approaches, complementary inventory strategies, and selective engagement with China. Ultimately, these strategies represent a shift toward more resilient governance structures, providing a roadmap for policymakers and executives to secure Europe's energy infrastructure within an era of systemic rivalry. |
| Keywords: | Geoeconomics, Supply Chain Resilience, EU-China Trade Relations, Renewable Energy Industry, Derisking, Strategic Sovereignty |
| JEL: | F Q |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iubhbm:339586 |
| By: | Thomas Marois (McMaster University [Hamilton, Ontario]); Jacob Woolford (UH - University of Hertfordshire [Hatfield]); Ali Rıza Güngen (McMaster University [Hamilton, Ontario]); Régis Marodon (AFD - Agence française de développement) |
| Keywords: | Global environmental and climate finance crises, global green and just transitions, 2030 SDGs, global public development bank ecosystem, national development banks and multi-lateral development banks colla-borations, Finance in Common Summit (FiCS), United Nations Finance for Development Conference (FfD4) |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05491434 |
| By: | Kamlage, Jan-Hendrik; Rogall, Marius; Sasse, David; Mohr, Kim |
| Abstract: | Der Ausbau der Stromübertragungsnetze spielt im Rahmen der deutschen Energiewende eine zentrale Rolle, aber führt in den betroffenen Kommunen regelmäßig zu Konflikten. Die Übertragungsnetzbetreiber (ÜNB) setzen auf informelle Formate der Stakeholderbeteiligung, um die Akzeptanz und Legitimität der Stromleitungsprojekte zu fördern. Diese informellen Beteiligungsprozesse haben die ÜNB in den letzten 15 Jahren kontinuierlich weiterentwickelt. Ziel des Beitrags ist es, diese Entwicklung kritisch zu beleuchten. Der Beitrag zeigt auf, wie sich frühe experimentelle und dialogorientierte Ansätze zu zunehmend professionalisierten und standardisierten, kampagnenartigen Beteiligungsformaten entwickelt haben. Während diese Praktiken die Transparenz und Akzeptanz von Planungsverfahren und der ÜNB als Projektentwickler erhöhen, bleibt ihr Einfluss auf die Akzeptanz der Infrastrukturprojekte selbst begrenzt. Auf der Grundlage dieser Analyse identifiziert der Beitrag fünf strukturelle Hindernisse – ungleiche Verteilung von Lasten und Nutzen, hohe Komplexität und Ressourcenknappheit, begrenzte lokale Entscheidungsbefugnisse, die Doppelrolle der ÜNB sowie lokal spezifische Akzeptanzkonstellationen –, die die Wirksamkeit informeller Beteiligung systematisch einschränken. Abschließend plädiert der Beitrag für einen systemischen und kontextsensitiven Ansatz für die lokale Governance der Energieinfrastruktur. The expansion of electricity transmission grids plays a central role in Germany’s energy transition, but regularly leads to conflicts in the local communities affected. Transmission system operators (TSOs) rely on informal forms of stakeholder engagement to promote acceptance and legitimacy of power line projects. The TSOs have continuously refined these informal engagement processes over the last 15 years. The aim of this paper is to critically examine this development. It demonstrates how early experimental and dialogue-oriented approaches have evolved into increasingly professionalised and standardised, campaign-style participation formats. Whilst these practices enhance the transparency and acceptance of planning procedures and of the TSOs as project developers, their influence on the acceptance of the infrastructure projects themselves remains limited. Based on this analysis, the paper identifies five structural barriers – unequal distribution of costs and benefits, high complexity and resource scarcity, limited local decision-making powers, the dual role of the TSO, and locally specific acceptance constellations – which systematically limit the effectiveness of informal participation. In conclusion, the paper advocates a systemic and context-sensitive approach to the local governance of energy infrastructure. |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8e34r_v1 |
| By: | Steve Cicala; David Hémous; Morten Olsen |
| Abstract: | We propose a new policy instrument that leverages adverse selection when Pigouvian poli- cies are infeasible or undesirable. Our policy gives firms the option to pay a tax on their voluntarily disclosed emissions, or an output tax based on the average emissions among undis- closed firms. We derive sufficient statistics formulas to calculate the welfare gains relative to an output tax, and an algorithm to implement the policy with minimal information. In an application to methane emissions from oil and gas fields, our policy generates significant welfare gains. Finally, we extend our analysis to the design of international carbon policy. |
| JEL: | D82 H2 Q54 L51 H87 K32 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:491 |
| By: | Mingzhi Xiao; Yuki Takayama |
| Abstract: | Time-of-use pricing is promoted to manage demand at public EV charging stations, yet its effectiveness depends on short run flexibility and local constraints. Using station by day by hour data from Shenzhen and Amsterdam, we estimate intraday price responsiveness on two margins, whether charging occurs in a station hour and, conditional on charging, delivered energy and occupancy time. High dimensional fixed effects absorb station by day demand shocks and hour of week patterns, so identification relies on within station, within day price variation under scheduled tariffs. Responses differ across cities. Shenzhen adjusts mainly through conditional intensity, whereas Amsterdam adjusts mainly through participation. Weather shifts responsiveness in opposite directions, with heat weakening responses in Shenzhen and rainfall strengthening participation responses in Amsterdam. Power upgrades typically outperform network densification except in transit-oriented areas. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.29223 |
| By: | Rainer Niemann; Anna Rohlfing-Bastian |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how ESG-linked executive compensation interacts with carbon taxation in a multitask principal-agent framework. A risk-neutral principal with financial and environmental preferences incentivizes a risk-averse manager to exert productive and abatement effort while facing an exogenous carbon tax on emissions. We show that, in the absence of ESG incentives, carbon taxes reduce emissions mainly by lowering production. In contrast, ESG-linked compensation shifts emission reductions toward increased abatement, allowing the principal to raise expected payoff while simultaneously reducing emissions, both with and without carbon taxation. However, carbon taxes narrow the range of feasible ESG preferences and, at high levels, may induce excessive abatement, potentially leading to negative net emissions. Our results highlight the importance of aligning internal incentive design with external climate regulation. The interplay of ESG compensation and carbon taxes should also be considered from a regulatory perspective. |
| Keywords: | ESG-linked executive compensation, carbon taxation, environmental regulation, climate policy, managerial incentives |
| JEL: | D82 M52 Q58 Q54 H25 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12582 |
| By: | Roland-Holst, David |
| Abstract: | This report quantifies how a single large employer’s local payrolls drives three critical dimensions of the San Luis Obispo (SLO) and Santa Barbara (SB) county economy: residential home prices, real estate sector output, and the cost of outstanding municipal debt. The analysis covers 28 ZIP codes from 2015Q1 through 2024Q4 (947 ZIP-quarter observations) and uses average annual compensation from the Diablo Canyon Power Plant (DCPP) workforce as the primary salary proxy — an exogenously determined income anchor in a region with limited other large employers. All models are estimated with HC1-robust ordinary least squares (OLS), and the preferred specification for each outcome uses ZIP code fixed effects (FE) to isolate within-locality, over-time salary effects. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Utilities, Externalities, Public finance |
| Date: | 2026–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt2vd9m64t |
| By: | Henrekson, Magnus; Sandström, Christian; Stenkula, Mikael |
| Abstract: | * Since the 2008 financial crisis, environmental policy has shifted away from simply managing negative externalities and gradually converged with regular industrial policy. Various 'green deals' have been launched around the world with the aim of achieving a combination of economic and environmental development. * Economists, such as Mariana Mazzucato, have gained traction among European policymakers, arguing that governments should not only focus on correcting potential market failures but should also formulate and finance comprehensive public missions to steer innovation towards proposed solutions and technologies. * In 2020, the European Union launched its Green Deal. Six years later, investments in hydrogen-based projects have collapsed, and electricity prices are twice as high as in the U.S. and China. * The United Kingdom has followed a similar trajectory, with comparable results in terms of declining industrial competitiveness and soaring electricity prices. * So far, the EU Green Deal has proved to be expensive, fragmented and ineffective. However, this does not mean that there are no alternative ways to reconcile economic development with environmental considerations. * The green transition should be guided by market price signals rather than by directional industrial policy. Such a framework could be achieved with a) a uniform and comprehensive emissions trading system that in principle covers the entire economy, and b) technology neutrality on the part of government without sector targets, industry support, or industry-specific subsidies. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ieadps:339593 |
| By: | Baraldi, Anna Laura; Cantabene, Claudia; De Iudicibus, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | Governments increasingly rely on purchase incentives for electric and hybrid vehicles to address both climate change and local air pollution. This paper provides new causal evidence on the environmental effectiveness of sub-national vehicle purchase incentives in Italy. Exploiting rich spatial and temporal variation in regional and municipal policies across Italian provincial capitals between 2013 and 2023, we show that the introduction of purchase incentives leads to statistically and economically significant reductions in traffic-related air pollution, measured by maximum annual concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2). These effects are robust across multiple specifications and placebo tests and are primarily driven by direct cash subsidies, while purely fiscal incentives do not generate detectable improvements in air quality. To uncover the underlying mechanisms, we document that incentives substantially increase the adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles and accelerate the phase-out of diesel cars, having an effect on investment in active mobility infrastructure and on changes in selected forms of electric micro-mobility. A decomposition exercise shows that technological substitution within the vehicle fleet is the main channel through which incentives reduce NO2 concentrations. Overall, the results highlight the importance of incentive design and provide policy-relevant evidence on the role of demand-side policies in improving urban air quality. |
| Keywords: | Vehicle purchase incentives, Urban air pollution, Electric and hybrid vehicles, Difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | H2 H20 Q4 |
| Date: | 2026–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127835 |
| By: | Roberto Daluiso; H\'ector Folgar-Came\'an; Andrea Pallavicini; Carlos V\'azquez |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a general rough volatility model for commodities that provides an automatic calibration of the initial term structure of the futures prices and an appropriate treatment of the Samuelson effect. After the theoretical analysis of this general model, we focus on the rBergomi and rHeston models and their calibration to market data of vanilla futures options on WTI Crude Oil. Finally, numerical results illustrate the performance of the proposed rough volatility models for commodities pricing. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.26514 |
| By: | Rawane Yasser (AFD - Agence française de développement); Muna Shifa (University of Cape Town); Anda David (AFD - Agence française de développement); Murray Leibbrandt (University of Cape Town); Vimal Ranchhod (University of Cape Town); Harald Winkler (University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | The interlinkages between climate change and socioeconomic inequality are increasingly acknowledged, yet analytical frameworks and empirical tools that jointly address these dimensions remain limited. This paper contributes to these discussions by distilling the key channels through which climate change and inequality mutually reinforce one another and by identifying a set of indicators to measure these linkages and inform policies in different country contexts. |
| Keywords: | Climate vulnerability, Adaptation, Inequalities, Changement climatique, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05474107 |
| By: | Roberto Durán-Fernández (ITESM - Tecnológico de Monterrey = Monterrey Institute of Technology); Ernesto Stein (ITESM - Tecnológico de Monterrey = Monterrey Institute of Technology); Anda David (AFD - Agence française de développement) |
| Keywords: | Energy governance, distributed generation, multilevel coordination |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05526786 |
| By: | Sánchez González, Santiago; Camacho, Jessica; Rivas, María Eugenia; Calatayud, Agustina |
| Abstract: | Este estudio estima los costos de transición hacia la movilidad eléctrica en América Latina y el Caribe (ALC) hasta 2050, bajo tres escenarios de penetración de la flota eléctrica: optimista, moderado y pesimista. El análisis se enfoca exclusivamente en la electrificación de automóviles de pasajeros y buses, considerando crecimiento económico, proyecciones poblacionales, depreciación de la flota de buses e incrementos en la tasa de motorización derivados del desarrollo económico proyectado. Metodológicamente, el estudio se estructura en dos bloques: i) la estimación de la penetración de la movilidad eléctrica en el transporte privado (automóviles de pasajeros) y ii) la estimación de la penetración en el transporte público urbano. En el transporte privado, se proyecta que la región podría alcanzar entre 68 y 127 millones de vehículos eléctricos e híbridos enchufables hacia 2050, lo que representaría entre el 27% y el 50% de la flota total. La infraestructura de carga pública necesaria para abastecer esta flota requeriría una inversión de USD 1.500 millones, equivalente al 0, 018% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) regional anual. En el caso del transporte público, se estima que los buses eléctricos podrían representar aproximadamente dos tercios de la flota total bajo el escenario moderado. Alcanzar este nivel de electrificación requeriría inversiones anuales del orden de USD 3.000 millones, incluyendo los costos de infraestructura de carga, lo que equivale aproximadamente al 0, 036% del PIB regional. La transición hacia un sistema de transporte público 100% eléctrico para 2050 requeriría una inversión anual del 0, 061% del PIB regional, considerando tanto la adquisición de los buses eléctricos como la infraestructura de carga asociada. Este monto representa un incremento del 33% respecto al costo de la renovación de la flota basada en buses de combustión interna. En conjunto, este estudio proporciona una base cuantitativa para la planificación de políticas públicas en la región, con énfasis en los costos contables de la movilidad eléctrica. El análisis excluye los beneficios operativos, ambientales y de salud, los cuales podrían mejorar significativamente la relación costo-beneficio de la movilidad eléctrica en ALC. |
| JEL: | Q42 R41 O54 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14543 |
| By: | Araujo, Rafael; Costa, Francisco J M (FGV EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance); Hector, Vinícius; Sant'Anna, Marcelo (Fundação Getulio Vargas) |
| Abstract: | The energy transition depends not only on building renewable capacity but also on protecting the natural resources on which renewables rely. This paper shows that conservation and renewable policies are complements. We quantify how Amazon deforestation affects Brazil's electricity market by reducing rainfall and hydropower generation. We model the transmission chain from deforestation to atmospheric moisture, to downwind rainfall, to river discharge and hydro output, and embed the resulting supply shift within a market-equilibrium framework. Counterfactual simulations indicate that reversing all deforestation since 1985 would increase annual hydroelectric output by 13 TWh, lower electricity prices, and generate welfare gains of USD 1.1 billion per year. These gains are unevenly distributed: consumers benefit from lower prices and Amazon-basin hydropower producers benefit from higher output, while thermal generators and hydropower producers elsewhere lose. Finally, we identify small, high-leverage regions that account for a disproportionate share of hydropower value, informing targeted conservation and restoration. |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5cukh_v1 |
| By: | Sehara, Arusi (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This thesis studies the economic coordination barriers that constrain the decarbonisation of maritime transport. Ships powered by alternative fuels lack refuelling infrastructure, creating a coordination failure that locks the sector into carbon dependence. We develop a spatial framework integrating a constrained optimisation problem with global vessel movement data to quantify the minimum infrastructure required to sustain existing trade flows under alternative-fuel adoption. Using AIS observations, tanker and cargo movements are reconstructed into directed networks, each coarsened into roughly 100 high-traffic hubs, and subsequently merged into a unified network for optimisation. The model is solved under two rollout strategies: an optimal rollout, which minimises infrastructure at each adoption level, and a monotone rollout, which captures the irreversibility of infrastructure investments by enforcing cumulative path dependence. Results show (1) geographically uneven adoption, with the earliest hub activations concentrated in East Asia and later entry elsewhere ; (2) cargo vessels transition to alternative fuels earlier than tankers ; and (3) outcomes are consistent across rollout strategies |
| Keywords: | Maritime decarbonisation ; Alternative fuels ; Infrastructure planning ; Network optimisation ; Coordination failure ; Spatial economics. JEL classifications: Q54 ; Q55 ; L91 ; R42 ; Q42 ; C61 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:96 |
| By: | Andres Alonso-Robisco; Carlos Esparcia; Francisco Jare\~no |
| Abstract: | Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used to write and refactor research code, expanding computational workflows. At the same time, Green AI research has largely measured the footprint of models rather than the downstream workflows in which GenAI is a tool. We shift the unit of analysis from models to workflows and treat prompts as decision policies that allocate discretion between researcher and system, governing what is executed and when iteration stops. We contribute in two ways. First, we map the recent Green AI literature into seven themes: training footprint is the largest cluster, while inference efficiency and system level optimisation are growing rapidly, alongside measurement protocols, green algorithms, governance, and security and efficiency trade-offs. Second, we benchmark a modern economic survey workflow, an LDA-based literature mapping implemented with GenAI assisted coding and executed in a fixed cloud notebook, measuring runtime and estimated CO2e with CodeCarbon. Injecting generic green language into prompts has no reliable effect, whereas operational constraints and decision rule prompts deliver large and stable footprint reductions while preserving decision equivalent topic outputs. The results identify human in the loop governance as a practical lever to align GenAI productivity with environmental efficiency. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.26712 |
| By: | Ruiwu Liu; Yangjian Zhu |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EVs) require substantially longer refueling times than gasoline vehicles, which can generate severe congestion at charging stations when demand concentrates. We propose a two-stage allocation framework for EV charging networks. In Stage 1, a central coordinator determines station-level admission quotas to control worst-station delay using a queue-informed congestion metric. In Stage 2, given these quotas and feasibility constraints (e.g., reachability), the coordinator solves a utility-maximizing capacitated assignment to allocate EVs across stations. To keep Stage~2 tractable while capturing heterogeneous charging needs, we precompute each EV-station pair's optimal charging amount in closed form under a battery-capacity constraint and then solve a transportation/assignment problem. Finally, we introduce a reduced-form participation model to characterize adoption thresholds under network benefits, spillovers, and coordination costs. Numerical experiments illustrate substantial reductions in worst-case congestion with limited impact on average utility, and highlight scaling patterns as the number of stations increases. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.16202 |
| By: | Marie Cellou (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IGR-IAE Rennes - Institut de Gestion de Rennes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Rennes - UR - Université de Rennes, UR - Université de Rennes) |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between public policy and corporate profitability in the context of climate change. We use panel regressions on a sample of 25 S&P500 fossil fuel companies from 2004 to 2018. We show that public attention to climate issues can have a significant impact on financial performance of firms. Indeed, we observe that climate regulatory uncertainty, as well as the stringency of public environmental policies, do not have a significant impact on the ex-post profitability of the fossil fuel companies in our sample, except when public attention to climate issues intensifies. |
| Keywords: | climate change, public attention, regulatory stringency, regulatory uncertainty, Financial performance |
| Date: | 2026–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05558197 |
| By: | Ertian Chen; Lichao Chen; Lars Nesheim |
| Abstract: | The European Union Emissions Trading System is set to substantially increase the effective carbon price faced by airlines. To quantify the impact of this carbon regulation on the European airline industry, we estimate a two-stage model of airline competition with endogenous route entry, flight frequencies, and pricing using European data on market shares and prices. Counterfactual simulations reveal that the impacts of carbon pricing are highly asymmetric across carrier types and market segments. Consumer surplus declines by up to 25% overall, with medium-haul markets bearing the brunt at up to 90%, while short-haul markets experience positive net welfare gains (including carbon revenue and the social value of avoided emissions) as airlines reallocate capacity toward shorter routes. We find that airline profits decline by 8-45% across scenarios, while carbon tax revenue of $0.9-3.1 billion and a social value of avoided CO2 emissions of $0.5-1.4 billion partially offset the welfare losses. We also show that a hypothetical Wizz Air-Ryanair merger primarily benefits firm profits through network expansion synergies. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.27724 |
| By: | Lee, Amy PhD; Volker, Jamey PhD; Handy, Susan PhD |
| Abstract: | The California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) requires lead agencies to evaluate the environmental impacts of major projects, including highway expansion projects, and to mitigate those impacts to the extent feasible. In 2013, SB 743 (Steinberg) changed how transportation impacts are evaluated by shifting the performance measure from traffic delay to vehicle miles traveled (VMT), a measure of total driving. This change reflected evidence that the metric of VMT captures the influence that transportation projects have on driving behavior and its related environmental and social impacts, such as greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, safety, and public health. How have lead agencies implemented the requirement to analyze and mitigate VMT induced by highway expansion projects? To better understand how SB 743 has affected highway expansion projects in practice, we reviewed state regulation and guidance and evaluated the Environmental Impact Reports (EIRs) for the six highway expansion projects that have started the environmental review process since the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) adopted guidance in 2020 to implement SB 743. In this brief, we focus on how lead agencies propose to mitigate any increases in VMT from each of the six highway expansion projects, including the measures proposed, the extent to which mitigation reduces VMT, the cost associated with mitigation, and sources of funding for VMT mitigation. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0r61q59c |
| By: | Frank Simmen; Bernd Süssmuth |
| Abstract: | We show that particulate matter pollution is lower in advanced economies where political parties favor homeownership. We rationalize this with a simple model featuring a polluting industry and owner-occupiers who push to restrict undesirable land uses. Pollution declines when homeowners have enough political power to enforce their preferences. We test this using data from German planning regions (2002–2014). Exploiting World War II area bombing as an instrument for homeownership - via its long-run effects on tenure patterns - we provide evidence suggesting a causal link between higher homeownership rates and lower air pollution. |
| Keywords: | homeownership, pollution, particulate matter, not-in-my-backyard |
| JEL: | Q53 R53 R38 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12581 |
| By: | Ahmed Mohamed (G2Elab-SYREL - G2Elab-SYstèmes et Réseaux ELectriques - G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Rémy Rigo-Mariani (G2Elab-SYREL - G2Elab-SYstèmes et Réseaux ELectriques - G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Vincent Debusschère (G2Elab-SYREL - G2Elab-SYstèmes et Réseaux ELectriques - G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | The revenues of battery energy storage systems (BESS) participating simultaneously in different markets such as energy and primary reserve has been widely investigated. In most cases, the system profitability is evaluated with optimization approaches based on historical data for prices and frequency measurements. However, in actual operations, the revenue decreases from such an ideal scenario due to uncertainties and the potential impossibility to fulfill the commitments, which translates into economic penalties. This paper proposes two-stage management strategies of a BESS participating in day-ahead and primary frequency reserve markets. The first stage consists in a day-ahead optimization of the quantities for the energy traded and capacity reserved and is based on simple forecasts. Heuristics strategies are then investigated for the real-time phase, based on actual frequency measurements at 10 seconds. Simulations are performed for data in the French market along 2021 and results obtained show that the proposed management can reach up to 90 % of the theoretical optimum profits obtained with perfect forecasts and optimal control. Especially, the real-time operation limits the penalties due to the impossibility to provide reserve when committed. Lastly, a degradation analysis of the BESS over 10 years shows that ageing remains moderated under 20 %. |
| Keywords: | battery degradation, price uncertainty, frequency reserve, bidding strategy, Energy markets |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05565320 |
| By: | Yao Liang; Xin Weng; Tingting Sun |
| Abstract: | This study provides a comprehensive strategic analysis of infrastructure energy investment in the context of the global low-carbon transition. Integrating quantitative panel data analysis across 15 countries (2010-2023), detailed case studies of Germany, the United States, China, and the European Union, and scenario simulations through 2050, we examine how policy, technology, and economic factors interact to determine investment effectiveness. Using panel data from 15 countries over the period 2010-2023, we find that renewable energy investment is systematically associated with higher economic growth and lower carbon emissions after controlling for country and year fixed effects. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.26702 |
| By: | Hippolyte Cédiey (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Philippe Quirion (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Laure Baratgin (LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS-PSL - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Quentin Bustarret (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Nilam de Oliveira-Gill (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Quentin Perrier (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Célia Escribe (CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées de l'Ecole polytechnique - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Thomas Letz (Association Négawatt); Thierry Salomon (Association Négawatt); Behrang Shirizadeh (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | We present the latest version of the open-source energy system optimisation model Eoles and use it to study whether the energy mix of the négaWatt 2022 scenario manages to meet demand for 2050 in France, for 19 weather-years. We find that even without recourse to interconnections, electricity demand only exceeds production for 3 to 4 hours a year on average, which is only just above the fault criteria of the French Energy Code. To prevent all hours of failure and fulfill reserves requirements, an additional 13.8~GW of dispatchable technologies is required, which corresponds to a 39\% increase compared to the négaWatt scenario. We then study the addition of three disptachable technologies: methane turbines, hydrogen turbines and batteries, that are all close in terms of total system cost. Moreover, electricity balance can be achieved even if the rooftop photovoltaic capacity is reduced compared to the négaWatt scenario. The associated gain (€3.4~bn./year) is higher than the additional cost of the dispatchable capacity mentioned above (around €1~bn./year). |
| Abstract: | Nous présentons la dernière version du modèle d'optimisation du système énergétique open source Eoles et nous l'utilisons pour évaluer dans quelle mesure le mix énergétique du scénario négaWatt 2022 peut satisfaire la demande d'énergie en France à l'horizon 2050, pour 19 années météorologiques. Nous obtenons que même sans recours aux interconnexions, la demande d'électricité n'excède la production que 3 à 4 heures par an en moyenne, ce qui ne dépasse que de très peu les critères de défaillance du Code de l'énergie. Pour éliminer toute heure de défaillance et assurer les besoins de réserves, une puissance supplémentaire de technologies pilotables de 13, 8 GW est nécessaire, soit une augmentation de 39 % par rapport au scénario négaWatt. Nous étudions l'ajout de trois technologies pilotables : turbines à gaz (méthane ou hydrogène) et batteries, qui sont toutes proches en termes de coût total du système énergétique. Par ailleurs, l'équilibre électrique peut être atteint même en réduisant la capacité photovoltaïque sur toitures par rapport au scénario négaWatt. Le gain associé (3, 4 Md€/an) est plus élevé que le surcoût entraîné par les capacités pilotables mentionnées ci-dessus (environ 1 Md€/an). |
| Keywords: | scénario énergétique, énergies renouvelables, système énergétique |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05535429 |
| By: | Tankwa, Brendon |
| Abstract: | S-curves are widely used to describe and forecast technological change, especially in debates on energy transitions, emerging technologies, and industrial transformation. Yet they are also widely misused. This perspective argues that the main problem usually does not lie in the curve itself, but in how it is interpreted. It develops a practical framework for reading diffusion curves in sociotechnical transitions, organised around six recurring sources of error: level, stage, object, purpose, interpretation, and horizon. The article shows why cumulative stocks, annual additions, market shares, and substitution processes should not be treated as interchangeable; why formative-phase technologies are especially vulnerable to overconfident curve fitting; and why levels, logs, and growth rates imply different notions of speed and acceleration. Drawing on classic diffusion theory, forecasting research, and examples from solar, wind, and other technologies, it argues that S-curves are best treated as empirical regularities rather than causal mechanisms or universal laws. Used carefully, they provide disciplined summaries, useful benchmarks, and clearer interpretations of transition dynamics. Used carelessly, they can turn noisy, path-dependent, and politically contested processes into stories of inevitability. |
| Keywords: | S-curves, diffusion curves, sociotechnical transitions, innovation diffusion, technological forecasting, energy transitions, technology adoption |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2026-09 |
| By: | Gómez-Lobo, Andrés; Price, Juan José |
| Abstract: | At the end of 2014 a “Green” registration tax on new vehicle sales was introduced in Chile. In this paper we use a novel vehicle-based dataset to estimate the impact of this policy on average nitrogen oxide (NOx) emission rates of new vehicle purchases. We analyze two impact channels: substitution from diesel to gasoline vehicles and substitution from more to less polluting diesel vehicles. We rely on a difference-in-differences approach and focus our analysis on pickup trucks. Our identification strategy benefits from the fact that for this type of vehicle the policy defined a taxable and exempt group. In addition, the tax was increased on two occasions after its implementation, hence we can estimate its impact as a function of treatment intensity. Our findings suggest that an average tax that reached 7-8% of the sale price resulted in an overall increase of 4 to 8 percentage points in the probability of purchasing a gasoline over a diesel pickup truck for affected purchases, reducing the average emission rate for this class of vehicles. In addition, we find suggestive evidence that within the diesel pickup group the tax may have induced a substitution to a cleaner model once it became available in the market. The policy's aggregate environmental impact is small since a large fraction of the most polluting vehicles are exempt. Finally, we do not find evidence of an increase in CO2 emissions as a result of the tax. Policy recommendations are discussed. |
| Keywords: | emisiones;Registration Tax |
| JEL: | Q52 H23 R48 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:14544 |
| By: | Klaus M. Frahm; Dima L. Shepelyansky |
| Abstract: | We study the nonlinear chaotic dynamics in a system of linear oscillators coupled by social network links with an additional stratification of oscillator energies, or frequencies, and supplementary nonlinear interactions. It is argued that this system can be viewed as a model of social stratification in a society with nonlinear interacting agents with energies playing a role of wealth states of society. The Hamiltonian evolution is characterized by two integrals of motion being energy and probability norm. Above a certain chaos border the chaotic dynamics leads to dynamical thermalization with the Rayleigh-Jeans (RJ) distribution over states with given energy or wealth. At low energies, this distribution has RJ condensation of norm at low energy modes. We point out a similarity of this condensation with the wealth inequality in the world countries where about a half of population owns only a couple of percent of the total wealth. In the presence of energy pumping and absorption, the system reveals features of the Kolmogorov-Zakharov turbulence of nonlinear waves. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.24190 |
| By: | Philip N. Jefferson |
| Date: | 2026–03–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgsq:102947 |
| By: | Christoph Siemroth |
| Abstract: | A German ministry recently proposed a limit of at most one price increase per day for petrol stations. At what time should the price reset be allowed in order to lower price levels the most throughout the day? To answer this question, I infer the share of price-sensitive consumers for every hour of the day from German petrol station price data, based on a simple spatial-competition model. I focus on weekdays, which are the relevant target because commuter demand is less flexible than weekend demand. Hourly petrol station prices peak at 07:00 and bottom out at 19:00. Given the inferred composition of price-sensitivity throughout the day and hourly passenger-car traffic frequencies as a proxy for quantity, I evaluate every possible reset-hour of the new policy. The lowest traffic-weighted average price is achieved by an 11:00 reset. With this reset-hour, the resulting equilibrium price throughout the day is constant. This would lead to lower prices in the morning but higher prices in the evening, harming price-sensitive consumers but benefiting morning commuters and firms. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.18920 |
| By: | Puls, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Die Sperrung der Straße von Hormus hat den Ölpreis nach oben getrieben. Wirklich schwierig ist die Lage aber bei Raffinerieprodukten wie Diesel oder Kerosin. Diese sind weltweit knapp geworden und weisen größere Preissprünge auf als Erdöl. Da dies die Stoffe sind, die den Transportsektor am Laufen halten, ist absehbar, dass diese Preissprünge bei jedem Konsumenten ankommen werden. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:339647 |
| By: | Han, Luyi (Pennsylvania State University); Winters, John (Iowa State University); Betz, Michael (The Ohio State University) |
| Abstract: | The 21st century fracking boom transformed American energy production, but new jobs were often filled by temporary in-migrants and long-distance commuters, possibly reducing economic benefits for prior residents. We use novel restricted-access data from the U.S. Census Bureau to assess fracking impacts on prior residents. We examine impacts on earnings and employment for persons born in non-metropolitan fracking counties. We utilize an event study design to estimate annual impacts during the fracking boom, drilling downturn, and subsequent periods. We find sizable impacts on average log earnings that peaked during the boom and partially persisted during and after the downturn. The fracking boom also increased the probability of being employed but the effect largely disappeared after fracking activity peaked. We also compare our main result for non-metropolitan natives to persons born in metropolitan counties and conduct several other extensions. |
| Keywords: | fracking, local labor markets, resource boom, rural development |
| JEL: | Q4 R2 J3 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18466 |
| By: | Tröger, Tobias |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the limits of corporate governance as a tool for advancing climate transition. While capital market mechanisms, shareholder stewardship, say-on-climate votes, and ESG-linked executive compensation are often presented as effective levers for greening corporate behavior, their transformative capacity is systematically constrained. Building on insights from financial economics and agency theory, the paper highlights incentive distortions within the complex investment ecosystem and introduces the "waterbed effect" as a central, yet underappreciated, limitation. Firm-specific governance interventions alter marginal abatement incentives asymmetrically, inducing competitive reallocation of emissions or production that may fully offset intended environmental gains. A formal model demonstrates how such interventions fail to reduce aggregate emissions under emissions trading systems and may even be counterproductive in competitive product markets. The analysis suggests that corporate governance can complement, but not substitute for, universally applicable regulatory instruments such as carbon pricing or comprehensive emissions caps. Overreliance on governance-based solutions risks inefficient resource allocation and may crowd out the political momentum necessary for effective climate regulation. |
| Keywords: | Corporate governance, Climate change, Waterbed effect, Systematic stewardship, ESG, Emissions trading |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:339600 |
| By: | Coline Seralta (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay, OpenLab Carbon Economics for Mobility, Stellantis France); Emma Jagu Schippers (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay, IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, IFP School); Yannick Perez (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay); Pascal da Costa (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay) |
| Abstract: | According to the IPCC, carbon dioxide removal is unavoidable to reach the Paris Agreements climate targets C (Shukla et al., 2022). Carbon dioxide removal include all human activities aiming at removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and durably storing it (Smith et al., 2024). Biochar is a carbon-dense, biogenic charcoal produced through the pyrolysis of biomass, which transforms the carbon content originating from atmospheric CO2 (fixed through photosynthesis) into a more stable form of carbon for long term storage. This process also co-produces syngas and bio-oil and, once applied to agricultural soil, biochar can increase crop yields. Biochar is one of the mature CDR methods that private investors invest in the most. In 2023, it represented more carbon removed from the atmosphere than Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Direct Air Capture with CCS (DACCS) combined (Pongratz et al., 2024), with a global market worth $600 millions (Global Biochar Market Soars to $600 Million in 2023, Setting the Stage for Future Growth, 2024). However, Biochar is much less included in Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) scenarios than the two others less mature CDR technologies, with only two scenarios accounting for biochar in the latest IPCC report compared to 280 for DACCS (Byers et al., 2022). Certain scenarios were shown to rely too heavily on BECCS and CCS to reach our climate targets (Kazlou et al., 2024; Workman et al., 2021), questioning our ability to meet our climate targets and our aim is to identify of it is the case for Biochar. IPCC scenarios accounting for biochar plan for an acceleration phase until 2040 stabilizing until 2100 with a maximum of 2, 4 Gt CO2 in 2050 (Byers et al., 2022). The objective of this paper is to analyze the industrial feasibility of biochar, beyond the hype in the private sector and the lack of data in the scientific literature. Biochar industrial development challenges existing scenarios and offers new realistic estimates for the potential of carbon dioxide removal with a mature technology. In this paper, we will investigate the potential and industrial limitations of Biochar as a contributor to Net Zero efforts. |
| Date: | 2025–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05546332 |
| By: | Antoine Teixeira (ADEME - Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Énergie); Fanny Vicard (ADEME - Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Énergie) |
| Abstract: | European climate policies largely target territorial emissions, overlooking greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and raw materials embodied in international trade. This study quantifies the potential and limitations of a sufficiency-oriented national strategy to reduce these impacts from a consumption-based perspective. Using the MatMat Environmentally Extended Input-Output (EEIO) model, we assess France's transition pathways toward Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2050 under two scenarios: an Efficiency-driven (Eff.) and a Sufficiency-oriented (Suff.) one. Results show that sufficiency systematically outperforms efficiency by reducing both GHG emissions (-44% vs. -31%) and raw material extraction (-24% vs -4%). Its outperformance stems from its stronger ability to reduce import dependency and to shift demand towards less material-intensive production. Housing, mobility, and food drive most reductions, while final services remain a persistent blind spot. In 2050, about twothirds of France's consumption-based impacts remain embodied in imports, 75% of which originate outside the EU, limiting the leverage of European decarbonization policies. These findings highlight the upstream mitigation potential of sufficiency and the need to extend NZE strategies beyond territorial scopes. Two key implications emerge. First, extending sufficiency to service provision is crucial to limit rebound effects and address the growing role of services in ageing societies. Second, integrating sufficiency into coordinated EU-level trade, industrial, and resource policies is essential to tackle imported pressures and strengthen the resilience of low-carbon transitions. |
| Keywords: | Sufficiency, Consumption-based GHG emissions and raw materials, Net-Zero emissions strategies, Scenarios analysis, Input-Output analysis, Industrial ecology |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05561584 |