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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Davi-Arderius, Daniel (University of Barcelona and Chair of Energy Sustainability Barcelona Institute of Economics (IEB), Spain); Nepal, Rabindra (School of Business, Faculty of Arts, Society and Business University of Wollongong, Australia); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | Empirical studies of whether merchant arbitrage acts as a countervailing force to the "merit order effect" of solar and wind is important but unexplored in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). This study fills in this gap by studying the actual impacts of charging and discharging Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) on the day-ahead electricity spot prices. Australia is a global leader in BESS and the findings of this study are not only relevant to the ongoing reform of the NEM but also to other countries on the path to decarbonizing their energy mix. We use hourly data between 2024 and 2025, and a methodology based on an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model with Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) features. We find that BESS impacts on the spot-prices, but its impact is asymmetric: charging BESS has decreased the spot price, while discharging them has increased the spot price. We find positive welfare impacts from BESS when diesel generators are replaced, but not for other generation technologies. Some policy recommendations are provided based on the findings. |
| Keywords: | Electricity; Storage; Batteries; BESS; Australia; Arbitrage; GARCH |
| JEL: | L50 L94 Q28 |
| Date: | 2026–02–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2026_005 |
| By: | Zhu, Kai (Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Beijing 100710, China); Cheng, Xiangran (School of Statistics, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, Tianjin 300222, China); Dong, Kangyin (School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | Amid the global green energy transition, China faces bottlenecks in renewable energy integration due to underdeveloped market-based trading systems. To address this gap, this study investigates the effectiveness of distributed power generation trading (DPGT) using panel data of Chinese cities between 2014 and 2023 and a multi-period difference-in-differences model. The findings show that (1) DPGT has significantly promoted the development of green energy industries; (2) the aggregation of talent and capital elements and green technology cooperation facilitate industrial growth; (3) the policy effects are more pronounced in non-resource-based cities, high energy-consuming cities, and cities that prioritize DPGT industries; (4) DPGT reduces emissions of conventional pollutants by displacing traditional thermal power generation. However, due to the peak shaving of thermal power and rebound effect, its carbon emissions reduction has not met expectations. |
| Keywords: | Distributed power generation trading (DPGT); Market-oriented trading; Green energy industry; Talent and capital aggregation; Green technology cooperation |
| JEL: | C21 H23 Q51 Q58 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2026_006 |
| By: | Gavin Harper; Viet Nguyen-Tien |
| Abstract: | Why critical materials are central to global strategic partnerships |
| Keywords: | Green Growth |
| Date: | 2026–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:727 |
| By: | Rózsai Máté (European Commission - JRC); Jaxa-rozen Marc (European Commission - JRC); Salvucci Raffaele (European Commission - JRC); Sikora Przemyslaw (European Commission - JRC); Gea Bermudez Juan (European Commission - JRC); Neuwahl Frederik (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The Joint Research Centre's Integrated Database of the European Energy System (JRC-IDEES) incorporates in a single database a rich set of information allowing for highly granular analyses of the dynamics of the European energy system, so as to better understand the past and create a robust basis for future policy assessments. JRC-IDEES provides a consistent set of disaggregated energy-economy-emissions data for each Member State of the European Union, covering all sectors of the energy system for the 2000-2023 period. This data complies with Eurostat energy balances while providing a plausible decomposition of energy consumption into specific processes and end uses. In each sector, JRC-IDEES uses a vintage-specific approach to quantify the characteristics of the energy-using equipment in operation, along with the average operation of the equipment stock. It accordingly identifies different drivers and provides insights on their role by sector while accounting for structural differences across countries. JRC-IDEES therefore supports several key applications for energy modelling, research, and policy analysis, such as parameterizing energy models and assessing past and prospective policies. JRC-IDEES is freely accessible to the general public since 2018 and can be downloaded through the JRC Data Catalogue. This report documents the 2025 release (JRC-IDEES-2023), which incorporates several new data sources and methodological improvements while extending the time coverage of the database until 2023. As such, the report is a revision of the previous JRC-IDEES-2021 technical report and describes key changes where relevant. The report also includes general minor revisions to clarify assumptions and data sources. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc144707 |
| By: | Bricongne, Jean-Charles; Meunier, Baptiste; Macalos, Joao; Milis, Julia; Pical, Thomas |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether satellite observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) – a short-lived pollutant primarily emitted by fossil fuel combustion – can improve the forecasting of oil demand. After retrieving, cleaning, and aggregating daily satellite data, we integrate NO₂ into a range of forecasting models. Across a panel of advanced and emerging economies, we find that including NO₂ significantly enhances nowcasting accuracy relative to benchmark models based on autoregressive terms and traditional predictors such as industrial activity, prices, weather, and vehicle registrations. Accuracy gains are particularly strong during crisis episodes but remain present in more stable times. Non-linear models, especially neural networks, yield the largest improvements, highlighting the non-linear link between energy demand and pollution. By offering a timely, globally consistent, and freely available proxy, satellite-based NO₂ data provide a valuable new tool for real-time monitoring of oil dema JEL Classification: C51, C81, E23, E37 |
| Keywords: | big data, energy consumption, machine learning, nowcasting, satellite data |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263198 |
| By: | Thorvaldur Gylfason; Gylfi Zoega |
| Abstract: | Because of convergence, initial income is an important explanatory variable in many growth regressions. Its omission can lead to misspecification bias that may seem to – but still does not – contradict the common albeit somewhat controversial empirical finding that natural resources, if not well managed, tend to depress incomes and growth. We illustrate the bias using simple algebra and cross-country regression analysis with two different data sets: old and new. We distinguish between natural resource abundance and dependence and propose a method for identifying the level of national income at which the net effects of natural resources shift from adverse to advantageous. |
| Keywords: | economic growth, natural resources, misspecification bias |
| JEL: | O11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12448 |
| By: | Garratt Anthony (Warwick Business School, University of Warwick); Petrella Ivan (Esomas Department and Collegio Carlo Alberto, University of Turin; CEPR); Zhang Yunyi (School of Management, China Institute for Studies in Energy Policy, Xiamen University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the information content of oil market forecasts produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). We evaluate the maximum informative forecast horizons for EIA projections of world and U.S. oil demand, supply, inventories, and prices. Our results show that U.S. forecasts are systematically more informative than their global counterparts, with content horizons extending up to six quarters for most U.S. variables. The information content embedded in EIA forecasts reflects both the agency's ability to track evolving market conditions and, particularly at short horizons, the incorporation of information that goes beyond simple trend extrapolation. |
| Keywords: | EIA Forecasts, Oil Market, Forecast Horizon, Forecast Path, Non-convergent Forecasts. |
| JEL: | C32 C53 E37 Q47 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tur:wpapnw:104 |
| By: | Abdelillah Moustahfid (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales Souissi Université Mohammed V de Rabat); Safae Abouali (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales Souissi Université Mohammed V de Rabat); Abdellah Echaoui (Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Sociales Souissi Université Mohammed V de Rabat); Ismail El Balghity (Université Sultan Moulay Slimane de Béni Mellal) |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the impact of oil prices on Morocco's GDP. It uses an empirical approach based on a vector error correction model (VECM) incorporating five variables: GDP, oil prices, consumer prices, balance of payments, exports and imports, over a 32-year period from 1991 to 2022.The results show that oil price fluctuations have a significant influence on Morocco's long-term economic performance. In particular, an increase in oil prices has a negative effect on GDP, highlighting the Moroccan economy's heavy dependence on energy imports. |
| Abstract: | La présente étude analyse l'impact des prix du pétrole sur le PIB marocain. Elle s'appuie sur une approche empirique fondée sur un modèle vectoriel à correction d'erreur (VECM) intégrant cinq variables : le PIB, le prix du pétrole, les prix à la consommation, la balance des paiements, les exportations et les importations, sur une période de 32 ans allant de 1991 à 2022.Les résultats obtenus montrent que les fluctuations des prix du pétrole exercent une influence significative sur les performances économiques à long terme du Maroc. En particulier, une hausse des prix du pétrole a un effet négatif sur le PIB, mettant en lumière la forte dépendance de l'économie marocaine aux importations d'énergie. |
| Keywords: | Energy, Morocco, Oil prices, GDP, VECM model, Maroc, Energie, Prix de pétrole, PIB, Modèle VECM |
| Date: | 2026–01–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05462810 |
| By: | Zhile Jiang; Xinhao Nie; Stratis Skoulakis |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the efficiency of battery storage operations in electricity markets by comparing the social welfare gain achieved by a central planner to that of a decentralized profit-maximizing operator. The problem is formulated in a generalized continuous-time stochastic setting, where the battery follows an adaptive, non-anticipating policy subject to periodicity and other constraints. We quantify the efficiency loss by bounding the ratio of the optimal welfare gain to the gain under profit maximization. First, for linear price functions, we prove that this ratio is tightly bounded by $4/3$. We show that this bound is a structural invariant: it is robust to arbitrary stochastic demand processes and accommodates general convex operational constraints. Second, we demonstrate that the efficiency loss can be unbounded for general convex price functions, implying that convexity alone is insufficient to guarantee market efficiency. Finally, to bridge these regimes, we analyze monomial price functions, where the degree controls the curvature. For specific discrete demand scenarios, we demonstrate that the ratio is bounded by $2$, independent of the degree. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.19660 |
| By: | Porter, Kathryn |
| Abstract: | * No credible forecast shows UK oil and gas demand falling to zero by 2050, even under net zero scenarios - oil and gas are essential ingredients in plastics, fertilisers, medicines and modern technology * The 78% headline tax rate is forcing a decline in North Sea production and driving investment overseas, with the workforce forecast to halve to as low as 57, 000 by the early 2030s - losing up to 1, 000 jobs a month * Replacing domestic production with imports increases overall emissions by around 50% and risks gas shortages on cold winter days as early as 2026/27 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ieadps:337449 |
| By: | Scott Alan Carson; Scott A. Carson |
| Abstract: | The Environmental Protection Agency’s Quad-O regulation’s objective is to reduce methane emissions; however, its effects on industry output and international crude oil and natural gas prices remain poorly understood. Quad-O increased international prices for crude oil, natural gas, conventional gas, diesel, and aviation fuel, but did not produce uniform effects on firm returns across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors. While the regulation’s implementation had limited effects on most firm returns, equipment & services and transportation & pipeline sectors experienced adverse returns following the Quad-O announcement. Although consumers faced higher energy prices, these sectoral return differential effects suggest that oil and gas consumers bore a larger share of the regulatory burden. |
| Keywords: | environmental protection agency, regulation, Quad-O, methane |
| JEL: | L50 L51 L52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12446 |
| By: | Emrehan Aktuğ; Abolfazl Rezghi |
| Abstract: | We study optimal monetary and exchange rate policy in a small open economy facing oil price shocks. In a model with segmented financial markets that generate endogenous UIP deviations, the first-best allocation is achieved through a combination of interest rate policy and foreign exchange intervention (FXI). Monetary policy stabilizes domestic inflation and the output gap, while FXI targets the UIP wedge to offset financial frictions. Oil price shocks endogenously move the net foreign asset position, giving rise to financial imbalances that make FXI essential—a mechanism distinct from exogenous financial shocks highlighted in the literature. Quantitatively, for a calibrated oil exporter, suboptimal regimes such as a free float or a simple peg entail sizable welfare losses of around 2% in consumption-equivalent terms, though peg, and especially peg with fuel subsidies, can outperform free floats. Overall, FXI is crucial to break the destabilizing link between real commodity shocks and financial risk premia. |
| Date: | 2026–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/030 |
| By: | Simon Woodruff; Alicia Durham; Alex Higginbottom; Chris Raastad |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the work of the Clean Air Task Force (CATF) International Working Group (IWG) on Fusion Cost Analysis in 2024-2025, and the methodological extensions implemented in the CATF-supported branch of the pyFECONs fusion power-plant costing framework. Using the standards-aligned chart-of-accounts and physics-to-economics workflow established by ARPA-E. The IWG development reorganizes and deepens the framework around three architecture-defining cost-driver tracks for Magnetic Fusion Energy (MFE), Inertial Fusion Energy (IFE), and Magneto-Inertial Fusion Energy (MIFE). In particular, the generic driver placeholder in Account 22.1.3 is treated as a controlled swap-point and replaced by a full cost-account development for the dominant driver in each class, enabling auditable traceability from requirements and geometry to rolled-up plant costs. On top of this driver-centric foundation, we introduce a probabilistic costing layer that compounds materials price uncertainty, TRL-based maturity uncertainty, and learning-curve uncertainty into cost distributions. We then describe safety-informed costing that enumerates fusion-relevant hazards and maps mitigating systems, structures, and provisions into standardized accounts, together with scenario-parameterized regulatory and financial adders. Finally, we document expanded macroeconomic and finance parameterization and a value-metrics module that complements LCOE with investment and planning measures (NPV, IRR MIRR, revenue requirements, WACC-based annualization, and residual and follow-on value), all computed from the same COA-mapped outputs. Collectively, these additions convert a deterministic, standards-aligned costing backbone into an extensible analysis environment suitable for transparent sensitivity studies, uncertainty propagation, and safety- and finance-coupled interpretation of fusion pilot-plant and NOAK scenarios. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.19389 |
| By: | Dietz, Simon; Budnevich Portales, Cristobal; Amin, Ali; Jahn, Valentin; Scheer, Antonina |
| Abstract: | The TPI Centre’s Carbon Performance assessments to date have been predominantly based on the Sectoral Decarbonisation Approach (SDA). The SDA translates greenhouse gas emissions targets made at the international level (e.g. under the 2015 UN Paris Agreement) into appropriate benchmarks, against which the performance of individual companies can be compared. The SDA recognises that different sectors of the economy (e.g. oil and gas production, electricity generation, and automobile manufacturing) face different challenges arising from the low-carbon transition, including where emissions are concentrated in the value chain and how costly it is to reduce emissions. Other approaches to translating international emissions targets into company benchmarks have applied the same decarbonisation pathway to all sectors, regardless of these differences. Such approaches may result in suboptimal insights, as not all sectors have the same emissions profiles or face the same challenges: some sectors may be capable of faster decarbonisation, while others require more time and resources. Therefore, the SDA takes a sector-by-sector approach, comparing companies within each sector against each other and against sector-specific benchmarks, which establish the performance of an average company that is aligned with international emissions targets. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137444 |
| By: | Dietz, Simon; Jahn, Valentin |
| Abstract: | The TPI Centre’s Carbon Performance assessments have historically assessed companies’ emission pathways on an emissions intensity basis – that is, the volume of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per unit of economic output. Coal mining is the first sector that we assessed based on absolute emissions rather than emissions intensities. This approach reflects the unique decarbonisation challenges specific to coal mining. Achieving net zero in this sector ultimately requires an almost complete phase-out of coal production. Unlike other industries, where efficiency improvements and new production methods can reduce emissions intensity while maintaining output, coal mining’s main decarbonisation strategy of phasing out production cannot meaningfully be assessed on an intensity basis. This is because coal production and Scope 1-3 emissions would reduce roughly proportionally. To account for these sector-specific characteristics, we introduce the Emissions Contraction Approach (ECA). The ECA remains grounded in the Sectoral Decarbonisation Approach (SDA), which the TPI Centre applies to all its Carbon Performance assessments. This section outlines the rationale behind using the ECA and explains why an alternative method is necessary for assessing the sector’s alignment with international climate goals. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137418 |
| By: | Frederick van der Ploeg; Armon Rezai; Rick van der Ploeg |
| Abstract: | A review is presented of the macroeconomics of climate change and policy. The review starts with a tractable workhorse model of the macroeconomics of climate and carbon pricing. It then discusses extensions to multiple countries. A discussion of the effects of macroeconomic and climate uncertainties and tipping points on asset pricing and the carbon price is given, including a discussion of stranded assets and the run on oil. Attention is then paid to green technical progress and to the effects of climate change and climate policy on different generations and the income distribution. The review concludes with a discussion of the effects of climate shocks and carbon pricing shocks on unemployment, inflation, and the role of networks in the transmission of these shocks, and borrowing constraints and sovereign risk in the face of climate shocks. |
| Keywords: | climate, carbon pricing, international cooperation, uncertainty, tipping points, green technical progress, distribution, second best, fiscal costs, adaptation pending, unemployment, inflation, borrowing constraints, sovereign risk |
| JEL: | Q58 G12 E32 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12480 |
| By: | Burgert, Matthias; Darracq Pariès, Matthieu; Priftis, Romanos; Röhe, Oke; Rottner, Matthias; Silgado-Gómez, Edgar; Stähler, Nikolai; Durand, Luigi; González, Mario; Varga, Janos |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a novel model comparison to examine the challenges posed by changes in carbon-intensive energy prices for monetary policy. The employed environmental monetary models have a detailed multi-sector structure. The comparison assesses the effects of both a temporary and a permanent energy price increase with a particular focus on the euro area and the United States. Temporary and permanent price shocks are both inflationary. However, the inflationary impact of the permanent shock depends on the underlying model assumptions and monetary policy response. The analysis also establishes that these models share large commonalities in their quantitative and qualitative results, while also pointing out cross-country differences. JEL Classification: C54, E52, H23, Q43 |
| Keywords: | climate change, DSGE models, model comparison, monetary policy, multi-sector models |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263192 |
| By: | Hugo Bailly (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Deloitte Economic Advisory) |
| Abstract: | The transition to a low-carbon economy requires substantial investment to replace the production technologies and infrastructure reliant on fossil fuels. In addition to regulation and carbon pricing, a range of financial policies has been proposed to accelerate green investment. This article evaluates the implications of three of them - direct green investment subsidies, green public guarantees, and capital market deepening - in terms of emission reduction, economic activity, and public debt. The analysis relies on a stock-flow consistent, input-output model of the EU economy, which explicitly incorporates industries' marginal abatement costs, intersectoral input-output linkages, and investment financing channels. Model simulations reveal that direct subsidies are the most effective tool for achieving significant emission reductions; however, they also result in substantial increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio. In contrast, public guarantees and equity market development tend to strengthen public finances and economic activity but yield only moderate emission cuts. The results further suggest that combining policies can effectively balance emission mitigation and economic activity without compromising public finance sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Energy transition, Green financial policies, Ecological macroeconomics, Stock-flow consistent modelling, Input-output modelling |
| Date: | 2026–02–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-05522653 |
| By: | Asteriou, Dimitrios; Dimiski, Anastasia |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the intricate relationship between climate policy uncertainty (CPU) and energy market dynamics, focusing on fossil‐based and renewable/low‐carbon energy assets. Utilising a comprehensive dataset spanning from April 1987 to December 2023, comprising monthly observations of CPU, stock market returns, spot oil prices and various energy commodity futures, we employ time series regressions to analyse the effects of CPU on market returns. Our findings reveal that fossil‐based energy assets are significantly and negatively impacted by changes in CPU, while renewable and low‐carbon energy assets exhibit minimal or negligible effects. Moreover, we identify a heightened negative impact of CPU during periods of increased uncertainty, underscoring investor sensitivity to abrupt spikes in climate policy uncertainty, particularly in fossil‐based energy sectors. Robustness analysis confirms the efficacy of the CPU index as a reliable indicator, emphasising the importance of using comprehensive metrics to assess the influence of climate policy uncertainty on financial markets. Our study underscores the necessity for policymakers and industry stakeholders to recognise the implications of climate policy uncertainty on energy markets and prioritise efforts to establish clear and consistent policy frameworks to facilitate the transition to a more sustainable energy landscape. |
| Keywords: | low‐carbon energy; policy frameworks; renewable energy; climate policy uncertainty; energy markets; robustness analysis; sustainability; fossil‐based energy assets |
| JEL: | G11 G12 Q48 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–02–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137465 |
| By: | Joanna Mazurkiewicz; Jakub Soko³owski; Bartosz Jusypenko |
| Abstract: | The report assesses Poland’s updated National Energy and Climate Plan by combining an analysis of energy and climate security risks with new evidence on public preferences regarding the transition. We relate four risk dimensions (geopolitical, affordability, reliability, and sustainability) to the NECP’s targets and measures. The analysis is complemented by a survey and a discrete choice experiment that identifies preferences over trade-offs involving climate impacts, fossil-fuel imports, and the distribution of transition costs and benefits. The results indicate that the key issue is not only raising target ambition, but also the trajectory, feasibility, and durability of implementation. Affordability is the most sensitive area: public acceptance of policy depends on cost resilience and perceived fairness. The findings also point to the need for a broader understanding of security that captures households’ exposure to price-volatility risk and helps explain public attitudes toward energy and climate policy. |
| Keywords: | NECP, energy security, energy affordability, social acceptance, energy transition, Poland |
| JEL: | Q48 Q58 H23 D78 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:report:rr012026 |
| By: | Meitz, J.; Faude, D.; Strauch, Lisa; Kämpf, V. I.; Gläß, Michaela; Walther, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | The European Union has set forth an objective to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and external supply chains. Hydrogen technologies are regarded as a pivotal element in achieving a sustainable and resilient energy supply. Despite the prioritization of hydrogen-powered fuel cells in numerous strategies, hydrogen combustion engines also offer promising opportunities, particularly with regard to heavy-duty applications and industrial processes. The successful deployment of this technology hinges upon its societal acceptance. The present paper analyzes, on the basis of empirical studies, the determinants influencing the acceptance of hydrogen engines in various societal and economic contexts. In doing so, it takes into account the political, infrastructural, and technological framework conditions. Additionally, the paper explores the potential contributions of the promotion of hydrogen engines to the European Union's strategic autonomy in the energy sector. Finally, policy recommendations have been formulated to support broader societal acceptance and the economic implementation of this technology. |
| Keywords: | Societal Acceptance, Energy Autonomy, European Union Policy, Decarbonization, Hydrogen Internal Combustion Engines |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:337457 |
| By: | Chepeliev, Maksym |
| Abstract: | Rapidly increasing material extraction is putting major pressure on ecosystems. Future increases in incomes and population could result in over 2.5 times growth in global material demand by 2050, putting even more pressure on the environment. Thus, an absolute decoupling of material use from GDP and income is of major importance to preserve safe operating boundaries. It is vital to understand how current policy efforts, including climate mitigation, could impact material use patterns and what complementary circular economy (CE) policies could be implemented to support dematerialization. At the same time, there is a lack of global datasets and related modeling tools that could support such an analysis. To address this limitation, here we develop a special version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Circular Economy (GTAP-CE) Data Base with detailed representation of primary, secondary, and recycling activities for metals (steel, aluminum, copper, etc.) and plastics, detailed representation of fertilizers, as well as disaggregated cement activity. The GTAP-CE Data Base is based on the v11c of the GTAP-Power Data Base with the 2017 reference year, representing the global economy across 99 activities, 141 individual countries and 19 composite regions. Introduced sectoral splits are designed to facilitate both the assessment of the circular economy policies, as well as Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) measures. The developed GTAP-CE Data Base is distributed in model-friendly formats and can be readily linked to the GTAP-based CGE models for the assessment of various policy scenarios either in the dynamic or static frameworks. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gta:resmem:7674 |
| By: | Ladha, Rijhul; Khan, Sarah; Das Banerjee, Anannya; Ramji, Aditya; Agrawal, Sumit Kumar; Nitant, Kumar; Singh, Abhijeet; Mudaliar, Atul |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt48398876 |
| By: | Filani, Iyanuoluwa O; Butt, Ali A; Harvey, John T |
| Abstract: | Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation are rising globally, particularly in emerging economies, where growing wealth increases vehicle ownership, vehicle use, and expansion of road networks. Road infrastructure is vital to economic development, but its construction, maintenance, and rehabilitation contribute significantly to GHG emissions. While extensive research and policy efforts have focused on emissions from vehicle operation, emissions from road infrastructure have not been systematically benchmarked to support mitigation strategies. A holistic lifecycle approach that integrates emissions from road construction, maintenance, vehicle production, operation, and road surface roughness provides a more complete understanding of climate impact from road transportation. To address these knowledge gaps, researchers at the University of California, Davis developed a framework to estimate lifecycle GHG emissions from road networks around the globe. This framework estimates emissions from 2021 to 2050, incorporating regional differences in road network expansion, vehicle fleets, and travel activity. The study offers regional benchmarks and identifies evidence-based opportunities to reduce infrastructure-related emissions and support more sustainable transportation. This brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides implications for the field. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Acceptance, Concrete, Cooperation, Implementation, Materials selection, Technological innovations, Technology assessment |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5mx492jw |
| By: | Davi-Arderius, Daniel (Càtedra de Sostenibilitat Energètica, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain); Giovannetti, Emanuele (Faculty of Business and Law, Anglia Ruskin University, and Hughes Hall, University of Cambridge, UK); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Llorca, Manuel (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Soroush, Golnoush (Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), Canada) |
| Abstract: | The development of the Common European Energy Data Space (CEEDS) emerges as a pillar to enable secure, interoperable, trusted, and resilient data exchange among stakeholders of the European energy system. We study the potentials for the CEEDS from an energy infrastructure perspective. We focus on the improvement of operational processes, reducing barriers to entry and to data exchanges, utilising AI-driven analytics, new cross-sectoral processes, and flexibility. Recent innovative projects and solutions implemented, show promising and relevant potential for the implementation of the CEEDS in the energy sector. However, there are still not enough empirical analyses of the impact of real-life energy data space initiatives, which are essential for implementing these large-scale solutions. |
| Keywords: | Common European Energy Data Space; Energy Networks; Interoperability; Distributed Generation |
| JEL: | D40 L50 L90 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026–03–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2026_007 |
| By: | Sébastien Houde; Tobias Wekhof |
| Abstract: | Minimum standard regulations for energy-using durables have long been suspected of having hidden costs: quality improvements in the regulated dimension reduce quality in other dimensions. We substantiate this claim for the U.S. clothes washer market, which has become a notorious example of the hidden cost phenomenon. We find that overall quality increased from 2001 to 2011, and these gains were primarily driven by improvements in energy efficiency. Quality in the non-energy dimensions declined or remained constant after the major standard change. These hidden costs, however, were quickly offset by energy-efficiency improvements in the new models. |
| Keywords: | minimum quality standard, hidden cost, energy efficiency regulations, appliance market, ex post analysis |
| JEL: | Q48 Q55 L51 L68 D12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12447 |
| By: | Theresa Hager (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; Socio-Ecological Transformation Lab, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; Interdisciplinary Commodity Studies Lab, Linz Institute for Transformative Change, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria); Laura Porak (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; Socio-Ecological Transformation Lab, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria); Stephan Pühringer (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; Socio-Ecological Transformation Lab, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria); Carlotta Terhorst (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; Socio-Ecological Transformation Lab, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | Despite widespread acknowledgment of the climate crisis, ambitious climate action remains constrained by competing visions of socio-ecological transformation (SET). Drawing on critical state theory, which conceptualizes the state as a "strategic terrain" where social forces struggle over hegemonic visions, this paper analyzes how transformative imaginaries shape political opportunity structures for climate policy in Austria's corporatist setting. We address two critical gaps in the SET literature: existing research discusses transformation visions abstractly without linking them to concrete policy-relevant actors, and the economic reasoning underlying these imaginaries remains largely unexamined. Using the SETER framework, we conduct a mixed-methods analysis combining discourse analysis with social network analysis to identify actor coalitions among Austria's major political parties and organized interest groups. Our findings reveal three distinct coalitions: Market-Driven Transition (emphasizing markets and innovation), Just Transition (prioritizing state intervention and distributional justice), and Ecological Modernization (emphasizing urgency and international cooperation). Despite differences in transformation pace and quality, substantial hegemonic consensus exists across actors – particularly regarding market-state tandems, techno-optimism, and growth orientation. This consensus reflects deep path dependencies and explains Austria's shift from environmental leader to climate laggard, demonstrating how economic reasoning and material interests constrain the political opportunity space for transformative climate action. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:set:wpaper:3 |
| By: | Peter Skott |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic models have been extended to incorporate climate change, to analyze its implications, and to examine the costs and benefits of green transitions. This paper discusses some limitations of these models and the critical dependence of their implications on factors that are subject to great uncertainty. Instead of trying to derive optimal trajectories of mitigation and macroeconomic policy, economics may be useful primarily in the analysis of the pervasive collective-action problems and distributional effects associated with a green transition and in the design of economic incentives to ensure a successful implementation of the transition. The analysis, moreover, must move beyond the 'brown'-'green' dichotomy and analyze different mitigation strategies, their scalability and their systemic effects. |
| Keywords: | Integrated assessment models, Keynesian climate models, welfare criteria, damage functions, transition strategies, free-rider prob- lem, distributional conict |
| JEL: | O44 Q43 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp2605 |
| By: | Global South Center for Clean Transportation |
| Abstract: | How industrial policy is shaping battery value chains in the Global South. For many countries, the shift to electric vehicles is an opportunity for industrial reconfiguration and economic development where there was previously little room to move up the value chain. This issue of Majority Mobility examines the industrial strategies that Global South countries are pursuing to move beyond extraction to secure a stronger position in the battery economy. Topics covered include a leverage-building strategy in Indonesia, diverging regional industrial policy pathways, mineral trade and circularity, and the fast-emerging zero-emission truck supply chain. These articles show that industrial policy is not abstract but unfolding in real time. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, industrial policy, value chain, electric vehicles |
| Date: | 2026–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2d42b5gs |
| By: | Avetisyan, Artur |
| Abstract: | Energy-sector challenges have shaped international relations since early history, making energy a key component of geopolitics. Understanding current global and regional energy and economic trends is therefore essential. Armenia, like many European Union countries, faces significant challenges in ensuring energy and economic security. Given its geographic position and self-sufficiency in electricity generation, alongside its growing export potential, Armenia can play an important role in regional energy security and stability. The country also has strong potential in renewable energy and is a regional leader in new renewables, though this potential has not yet been fully realized. Unsettled relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, as well as infrastructure constraints with Georgia and Iran, limit Armenia's opportunities. Nevertheless, improving ties with European and Asian partners enhance Armenia's strategic role along the North-South axis. This article examines new development trends, reassesses challenges and opportunities, and evaluates Armenia's potential to act as a regional bridge for energy and economic cooperation. |
| Keywords: | Energy security, sustainability, mutually beneficial cooperation, South Caucasus, critical infrastructures, the North-South International Project, the Black Sea Electricity Cable project |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:337459 |
| By: | Henrekson, Magnus (Research Institute of Industrial Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study critically examines HYBRIT, a Swedish flagship project led by state-owned LKAB to produce fossil-free sponge iron using hydrogen from fossil-free electricity. Framed as central to EU’s green transition, HYBRIT promised CO₂ cuts exceeding Sweden’s total emissions but faced major technological, economic, and infrastructural hurdles. The analysis situates HYBRIT within broader “moonshot†policies, prone to political enthusiasm, rent-seeking, and neglect of opportunity costs. The project required large-scale hydrogen production, storage, and process adaptation, unproven at commercial scale. Profitability depended on persistently low electricity prices and high CO₂ costs while global competition in green steel intensified. Electricity constraints in northern Sweden further strained feasibility. Political, regional, and corporate interests nonetheless aligned behind HYBRIT, aided by limited scrutiny of state-owned firms. Mounting criticism and shifting priorities ultimately led LKAB to defer its sponge iron plans indefinitely, pivoting toward high-grade ore and critical minerals. The case highlights the risks of mission-oriented policies when political symbolism outweighs technological and market realities. |
| Keywords: | green deals, green steel, hydrogen, mission-oriented policies, moonshots, public choice, rent-seeking |
| JEL: | L20 L52 L70 O38 Q28 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18359 |
| By: | Stenkula, Mikael (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | This essay examines the rise of “Green Deals” as large-scale state-sponsored active industrial policies to accelerate a transition toward climate neutrality. Building on the concept of mission-oriented innovation policy (MOIP), it documents how environmental and active industrial policies have converged across advanced economies, reshaping the policy toolkit toward direct public investment and publicly supported investment. The essay provides detailed accounts of the European Union’s Green Deal and the U.S. counterpart, situating them in the broader political economy of climate policy. It also highlights initiatives in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Sweden, which additionally illustrate Grean Deal initiatives and how the latter national strategies adapt EU-level frameworks and institutional constraints. A comparative analysis underscores key differences between the EU’s fragmented, case-by-case approach and the more streamlined but fiscally uncertain U.S. model. The essay concludes by stressing the need for greater scrutiny of these policies, including their economic efficiency and fiscal sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Climate neutrality; Climate policy; Green Deal; Mission-oriented innovation policy; Industrial policy |
| JEL: | H23 O38 P18 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1554 |
| By: | Floore Bursens;; Silvia De Poli;; Sofia Maier;; Gerlinde Verbist; |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the distributive impact of a hypothetical carbon tax on households' transport and energy consumption in Belgium. It focuses on the welfare effects across population groups and along the income distribution, as well as on the expected budgetary and environmental effects, accounting for consumer responses under a partial equilibrium microsimulation framework. Given the wellknown regressive features of consumption taxes in general, and of energy- or carbon-related taxes in particular, this study evaluates various methods for making the carbon tax more progressive and assesses how these methods affect the overall distributional outcomes. We assess both the expected results as well as the feasibility of each of the tax design scenarios, considering the effect on household income and its distribution vis-a-vis the expected reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:wpaper:2503 |
| By: | Leon Stolle; Jonas Boeschemeier; Benjamin F. Hobbs; Karsten Neuhoff |
| Abstract: | Locational marginal pricing (LMP) provides efficient locational dispatch and investment signals but requires a complementary congestion hedging instrument to function effectively. This paper investigates how exposure to locational price differences is managed in North American nodal electricity markets through the implementation of financial transmission rights (FTRs). Drawing on insights from 15 industry experts directly involved across all major North American electricity markets, we consolidate first-hand perspectives that reveal the practical complexities of FTR design and implementation. While most interviewees view FTRs positively, their experiences uncover multiple nuanced challenges to successfully design locational hedging instruments, which are often overlooked in the academic literature. As FTR design depends on market characteristics, we apply the findings to the European electricity market and discuss implications for a possible implementation of LMP in Europe. |
| Keywords: | Financial transmission rights, locational marginal pricing, nodal pricing, risk hedging, congestion revenue, electricity market design, contracts for differences |
| JEL: | D44 D47 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2156 |
| By: | Mathieu Guigourez (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéo-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | This paper challenges the Pigouvian framing of carbon taxation as a neutral corrective tool, arguing that carbon pricing also reshapes how individuals understand their responsibility in the climate crisis. The paper synthesises four critiques – moral licensing, framing distortions, dampening effects, and endogenous preferences – showing how carbon pricing can displace or erode moral responsibility. In response, it introduces a distinction between accordant responsibility, defined as behavioural alignment with external incentives, and procedural responsibility, grounded in moral reflection and autonomous commitment. It challenges the view that price signals alone can engineer moral agency and argues for policies that sustain ethical commitments |
| Keywords: | Carbon Tax; Individual Responsibility; Framing; Crowding out Effects; Endogeneous Preferences |
| JEL: | Q57 D62 D91 B41 A12 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:26003 |
| By: | Stef Proost |
| Abstract: | The non-CO2 aviation emissions (mainly contrails) can, in total, be up to twice as damaging for climate as the CO2 emissions associated to the use of kerosene. As the warming effect of the non-CO2 emissions depends strongly on metereological conditions, it is difficult to attribute the non-CO2 warming effect to a particular flight. Without detailed meteorological information per fight only a blunt emission permit or tax system that taxes all kerosene used in aviation at two to three times the current damage estimate of CO2 could work. Even if this can be justified from an environmental economics point of view, this risks to be unacceptable for the aviation sector. The result is that there is, at present, no active non-CO2 policy. The aviation industry has proposed a 20 year plan to improve the monitoring of these emissions before taking action to address the non-CO2 emissions. We propose a multi-period regulation scheme to address this problem much faster. In the first stage, airlines and public sector agencies are subsidized to improve measurements. These measurement inputs are used to construct a contrail forecasting model. In the second stage, the model is used to propose alternative flight-paths. Airlines are incentivized to adopt the new flightpaths by subsidies that cover the additional flight operation costs. A numerical illustration for the wider EU-region shows that the mechanism proposed can lead to significant climate emission savings that are larger than the savings of CO2 emissions that result from the introduction of ETS or Sustainable Aviation Fuels for aviation. |
| Keywords: | air transport, aviation emissions, contrails, climate, regulation |
| JEL: | R48 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12505 |
| By: | Joiner, Emily (Resources for the Future); Lohawala, Nafisa (Resources for the Future); Wibbenmeyer, Matthew (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Indirect land-use change (ILUC)—the market-mediated expansion of agricultural land that can occur when cropland is diverted to biofuel feedstocks—has potential to result in the release of large amounts of stored carbon, offsetting some or all of the climate benefits of biofuels. ILUC has been a source of debate in biofuels policy and life-cycle greenhouse gas accounting for nearly two decades. This brief reviews how economic models estimate ILUC and how policymakers incorporate those estimates in the United States, the European Union, and international aviation. We explain why projections vary across models, where disagreements remain, and how policy design can account for uncertainty.Biofuels are derived from biological material, such as crops, waste oils, and residues. They have the potential to reduce net GHG emissions relative to petroleum-based fuels because the carbon released when they are burned was recently absorbed by the feedstock and will be reabsorbed from the atmosphere if new feedstock is grown. For this reason, they are often viewed as a way to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in sectors that are difficult to electrify, such as aviation, shipping, and heavy-duty transport.Whether biofuels reduce net emissions in practice depends on the consequences of producing and using them at scale relative to fossil-fuel baselines, including emissions from feedstock cultivation, refining, (LUC). An expansion of agricultural land use induced by increased biofuel demand has the potential to spur the conversion of forests, grasslands, and wetlands to cropland, thereby releasing large amounts of stored carbon.LUC could arise in two ways. Direct LUC is an expansion of cropland for feedstock production; such expansion can be directly observed and accounted for. For example, when a forest is cleared for a palm oil plantation, fuel produced from that plantation can be assigned direct LUC emissions. ILUC, by contrast, occurs through market-mediated responses. Increased demand for crops as feedstocks (versus food or animal feed) raises crop prices, which creates incentives to convert non-crop land to cropland. Natural areas may be converted directly to cropland, or land used for grazing livestock may be converted to cropland, pushing livestock production into natural areas. These responses occur globally, so they can induce land conversion far from where feedstocks are produced. For instance, if soybean oil is diverted from export markets to US fuel use, higher global prices for vegetable oil may induce expansion of palm oil production in Southeast Asia to replace soybean oil in food markets.That ILUC operates through global markets makes it difficult to attribute land-use emissions to biofuels, and researchers and policymakers have typically relied on models to simulate it. Searchinger et al. (2008) brought concerns about ILUC to prominence by predicting ILUC emissions from US corn ethanol production large enough to undo its carbon benefits relative to conventional fuels. In this comparison, timing matters: ILUC produces a large, immediate release of land carbon, but the emissions benefits from substituting corn ethanol for petroleum accrue over many years. In Searchinger et al. (2008), corn ethanol nearly doubles GHG emissions over the first 30 years, and the break-even point is reached only after about 167 years. Subsequent critiques questioned the assumptions underlying these large projections (Wang and Haq 2008; Sedjo et al. 2015). Since then, policymakers have relied on lower ILUC emissions values, reflecting alternative models and assumptions.ILUC predictions continue to be vigorously debated. Model results are highly sensitive to contested assumptions and modeling choices, and the past predictive performance of ILUC models has been difficult to validate empirically. These challenges—coupled with the potential significance of ILUC for assessing the climate effects of biofuels and influencing policy incentives and compliance obligations—have made the topic highly contentious.We begin by outlining how policymakers incorporate ILUC into regulatory frameworks in Section 2. Section 3 describes the economic models used to estimate ILUC, explaining why projections vary. Section 4 reviews the ILUC values adopted in policy and the disagreements surrounding them. Section 5 concludes with reflections on future directions for ILUC analysis and policy design. |
| Date: | 2026–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:ibrief:ib-26-02 |
| By: | Elisa Belfiori; Daniel Carroll; Sewon Hur |
| Abstract: | We characterize optimal climate policy in an economy with heterogeneous households and non-homothetic preferences. We focus on constrained efficiency, where the planner is restricted from transferring resources across households. We derive three results. First, the constrained-optimal carbon tax is heterogeneous and progressive. Second, if restricted to a uniform tax, the optimal rate is lower than the standard Pigouvian level due to inequality. Third, this allocation is decentralizable using only uniform instruments - a carbon tax, clean subsidy, and a lumpsum transfer. In a quantitative application, we show this policy generates a Pareto improvement, reconciling climate efficiency with inequality concerns. |
| Keywords: | carbon tax, inequality, consumption, welfare, climate change |
| JEL: | E21 H21 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12443 |
| By: | Kollar, Justin |
| Abstract: | The so-called AI boom is part of an infrastructure-led industrial strategy, converting speculative computing demand into bankable fossil generation, transmission expansion, and water- and land-intensive industrial sites. This article bridges digital infrastructure studies and the new state capitalism literature by theorizing compute as a socially produced resource whose availability depends on territorial governance. I argue that the buildout is being assembled through a fossil–AI nexus, a fossil–finance–platform coalition that produces powered land: an emergent asset form whose value derives from positionality in a constrained energy system that secures deliverable 'firm' power through revenue guarantees, deliverability rights, and cost-allocation arrangements. Drawing on a review of major gas-to-data centre co-location projects and a comparative analysis of PJM and ERCOT, I identify three recurring de-risking channels that convert uncertain load forecasts into durable, carbon-intensive infrastructure: revenue certainty, delivery certainty, and cost shifting. I show how 'reliability, ' alongside security and competitiveness framings, compresses timelines, translates engineering criteria into bankability, and narrows public contestation. I also show how opacity, or 'blackboxing, ' stabilizes powered land by restricting access to contractual and cost-allocation terms, while relocating politics to transparency disputes and siting conflicts over where data centres go and who pays for the buildout. |
| Date: | 2026–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:k9df4_v1 |
| By: | Kateryna Tkach (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Alberto Marzucchi (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Ugo Rizzo (Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Ferrara); Michela Borghesi (Department of Economics and Management, University of Ferrara) |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the literature on the green, digital and twin transitions by providing novel evidence on their implications for industrial dynamics. In particular, we investigate whether the local supply of skills in the green, digital and twin domains is related to firm entry and exit at the NUTS3 level in Italy. We exploit a recently created dataset on the near-universe of Italian university programme descriptions to capture the skills provided through higher education. We find that the supply of green, digital and twin skills enhances opportunities for firm entry. We rule out the possibility that this effect simply reflects the supply of high-skilled labour in general. The supply of green skills may induce higher industrial renewal, being it also correlated with higher exit rates. |
| Keywords: | skill supply; university graduates; industrial dynamics; local economic performance |
| JEL: | O33 Q55 J24 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:0726 |
| By: | Luca Congiu (University of Insubria; CEIS, University of Rome “Tor Vergataâ€); Manuela Coromaldi (Department of Economics, University of Rome Niccolò Cusano); Alessio D’Amato (University of Napoli Parthenope; Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies (SEEDS)); Loredana Mirra (University of Rome “Tor Vergataâ€); Andrea Rampa (University of Rome “Tor Vergata†; Sustainability Environmental Economics and Dynamics Studies (SEEDS)) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an empirical analysis of Italian attitudes towards climate change and climate policies based on a comprehensive survey of 5, 637 respondents. The study investigates the potential drivers of public support for various climate policies, including carbon taxes, product bans, and subsidies for green technologies, in light of public resistance observed in other countries. We use ordered probit models to address support for specific policy types and a multivariate probit model to explore the interdependencies across public opinions on taxes, bans, and subsidies. Our findings indicate that attitudes toward climate policy are primarily shaped by a combination of individual characteristics —such as political affiliation, climate change awareness, and personal intentions — and, to a lesser extent, by the respondents’ employment sector. We find that older individuals, those with left-leaning political views, and those with higher climate engagement are consistently more likely to support a broad range of climate policies. Conversely, individuals who deny climate change and those working in hard-to-abate industries show a certain opposition. The analysis also strongly highlights the importance of social equity, as concern about inequality is positively correlated with support to subsidies, while concerns about impacts on personal wage and wealth appear to reduce, in several cases, support to climate policies. Our multivariate analysis also reveals a high correlation across different policy types support, suggesting an underlying, unified view in favour (or against) climate action. Similarly to Douenne and Fabre (2022), our results highlight the importance of designing policies that are not only economically sound but also address social equity concerns, such as through targeted revenue recycling, to enhance public acceptability and mitigate potential resistance. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:0426 |
| By: | Megha Patnaik |
| Abstract: | Metal markets are an important but understudied aspect of the global energy transition. This paper demonstrates differential metal price responses to the Paris Agreement based on their role in the energy transition. We use a difference-in-differences design with daily price data from 2001 to 2024 for eight industrial metals. The treatment group distinguishes between traditional green metals (Copper, Aluminium, Nickel), which are established in renewable energy infrastructure, versus emerging green metals (Lithium), that are critical for storage. The control group includes non-green metals (Zinc, Lead, Tin, and Iron Ore). We find traditional green metals experienced 31% price decline relative to control metals following the Paris Agreement, while Lithium exhibited a 120% price increase. |
| Keywords: | Paris agreement, green transition, metal prices |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 G14 L72 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12375 |
| By: | Gil, Marina; Sabbatella, Ignacio; Poveda, Rafael; Ñancupil, Ignacio |
| Abstract: | En este documento se examinan las ventajas de la integración energética en América Latina en el contexto de la transición energética, teniendo en cuenta la trayectoria regional y los desafíos climáticos, económicos y geopolíticos actuales. Para ello, se analizan escenarios prospectivos en materia de energía eléctrica hacia 2050 y el papel del gas natural. Los resultados indican que una mayor integración se traduce en una transición energética más profunda y eficiente para la región. En el sector eléctrico, el hallazgo más significativo son los beneficios económicos y ambientales de incorporar nuevas interconexiones eléctricas en los escenarios con mayor penetración de energías renovables, si bien dichos beneficios son mayores en América del Sur que en Centroamérica y México. Con respecto al sector gasífero, la abundancia de recursos no convencionales del yacimiento de Vaca Muerta presenta una nueva oportunidad para la integración sudamericana. De concretarse distintas obras de ampliación del sistema troncal argentino y de interconexión transfronteriza con el Brasil y Chile, podría multiplicarse por tres el volumen que actualmente se intercambia a través de gasoductos en América del Sur. |
| Date: | 2026–01–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:85912 |
| By: | Schmiedeberg, Claudia; Schober, Dominik |
| Abstract: | Given the importance of the transport sector for greenhouse gas emissions, both behavioral change will be needed to mitigate climate change in addition to technological innovation. We focus on the case of remote working as a less carbon-intensive substitute to commuting and analyze whether employees react to price incentives and work more from home in times of higher local fuel prices. Applying an instrumental variables approach based on panel data from Germany, we find moderate fuel price effects on remote working frequency, which are restricted to occupations with high skill- level and regions with limited alternatives to car commuting. We use these results to predict changes in remote working frequency as a consequence to increasing carbon prices as discussed for climate policy. Results indicate that even with ambitious carbon pricing, individual remote working frequency will increase modestly, causing only limited reductions in German national aggregate fuel and carbon emissions. |
| Keywords: | fuel price, elasticity, remote working, telework, commuting, longitudinal |
| JEL: | H23 Q41 Q48 Q54 Q58 R41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:337463 |
| By: | Meier, Felix; Quaas, Martin F.; Rickels, Wilfried; Traeger, Christian |
| Abstract: | Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is considered essential for climate change mitigation, yet its optimal role in climate policy remains unclear in the presence of non-permanent storage, en-ergy constraints, and fossil fuel scarcity. We integrate CDR into an analytic integrated assess-ment model to derive general conditions for socially optimal CDR deployment. Within a linear carbon cycle model, we consider different CDR pathways, including direct air carbon capture, ocean alkalinity enhancement, and ocean iron fertilization. Introducing CDR does not signifi-cantly alter the optimal carbon price and the incentive to reduce emissions. The impact of CDR on gross emissions mainly stems from the energy required to operate it. This impact, as well as the optimal deployment of CDR, depends on fossil fuel scarcity and the pace of renewable en-ergy deployment. In high-damage scenarios, the optimal deployment of CDR occurs before and around the year 2100, consistent with temperature overshoot pathways. |
| Keywords: | carbon dioxide removal, climate change, integrated assessment, social cost of carbon |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:337451 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | In response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has accelerated efforts to diversify its energy supply and reduce structural dependence on Russian gas. Within this strategy, Azerbaijan has emerged as a significant alternative supplier through the Southern Gas Corridor and the 2022 EU-Azerbaijan Memorandum of Understanding, which sets a target of increasing gas exports to 20 bcm annually by 2027. Azerbaijani pipeline gas deliveries to the EU rose from 8.2 bcm in 2021 to 12.8 bcm in 2025, elevating Azerbaijan to the position of the EU's fifth-largest external pipeline supplier. This expansion of energy cooperation has coincided with a pronounced deterioration in Azerbaijan's human rights environment. Since mid-2022, the number of political prisoners has increased substantially, while European institutions-including the European Parliament, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, and the European Court of Human Rights-have documented persistent violations of fundamental freedoms. The article examines the structural tension between the EU's energy security imperatives and its normative commitments to democracy, rule of law, and human rights. It advances the concept of an "authoritarian trade-off, " whereby strategic diversification objectives may inadvertently reinforce authoritarian governance in supplier states. The analysis argues that the absence of enforceable conditionality in EU-Azerbaijan energy agreements risks undermining the Union's normative credibility. It concludes that embedding transparency requirements, governance reforms, and human rights conditionality into future energy frameworks is essential for aligning the EU's strategic interests with its foundational values. |
| Keywords: | European Union, Azerbaijan, energy security, energy diversification, Southern Gas Corridor, pipeline gas, foreign policy, authoritarian governance, political repression, petrostate dynamics, human rights conditionality, transparency, rule of law, geopolitical energy strategy |
| JEL: | P16 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:337500 |
| By: | Giulia Rossello; Maria Antonietta Reatini; Gabriele Pinto; Giorgio Cattani |
| Abstract: | Air pollution is a major externality whose consequences extend beyond health and productivity. This paper shows that short-run pollution shocks also reduce democratic participation. We combine official, municipality-level election results from 32 national, European, regional, and municipal elections in Italy (2013-2022) with newly assembled daily measures of PM2.5, PM10, and NO2 for all Italian municipalities. Our identification strategy exploits quasi-random election-day deviations in local pollution relative to recent conditions, and we corroborate the results using wind speed as an instrument for particulate matter. Higher pollution on election day substantially depresses turnout: a 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 (roughly doubling typical exposure) lowers participation by 2-3 percentage points, corresponding to about one million fewer votes. The estimates are similar for PM10 and NO2, and when pollution exceeds WHO guideline thresholds. Using post-election survey data from the 2013, 2018, and 2022 national elections coupled with survey-date exposure, we find consistent individual-level declines in reported voting intentions, with larger effects among citizens who report higher political interest. These findings identify the political-economy cost of air pollution, which not only reduces turnout but distorts the democratic representation by altering who turns out, not just how many. Our results suggest that environmental regulation can strengthen the democratic process by improving political participation and representation, in addition to its health and welfare benefits. |
| Keywords: | Air Pollution, Environmental Effects, Political Participation, Turnout |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 D72 D91 |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2026/328 |
| By: | Ayse Sila Koc; Irfan Cercil |
| Abstract: | The rapid increase in climate change risks has given rise to multinational and country-level efforts to mitigate its effects. In recent decades, and particularly after the Paris Agreement in 2016, climate change policies (CCPs) have intensified across both advanced countries and emerging market economies. These developments have heightened transition risks stemming from the adaptation of green policies, with potential implications for international capital flows, most notably, foreign direct investment (FDI). This paper investigates the impact of country-specific CCPs on FDI flows using a panel of 40 advanced and EM economies over the period of 1990-2019, employing the local projections (LP) method. The results indicate that CCPs are significantly associated with a decline in both gross and net FDI inflows in EM economies, whereas the effects of CCPs on FDI flows in advanced economies are more muted and statistically insignificant. Further empirical analysis reveals no statistically robust relationship between CCPs and overall portfolio (equity and debt) flows. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on the macro-financial consequences of CCPs and offer valuable insights for both policymakers and international investors. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Climate change policies, Emerging markets, Capital flows, Foreign direct investment, Local projections |
| JEL: | F21 F64 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:wpaper:2604 |
| By: | Saurav Kumar (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Taniya Ghosh (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Shesadri Banerjee (Reserve Bank of India) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the macroeconomic dynamics under the recently announced intensity based Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) in India using an Environmental Dynamic Stochas tic General Equilibrium framework. The policy freely allocates carbon certificates in the primary carbon market and aims to incentivize their trading by monetizing emission intensity reductions in the secondary carbon market. Distinguishing between thermal power and green electricity we find that the incentive mechanism of this policy promotes the adoption of green electricity and reduces emissions in the long term. Although phasing out the use of fossil fuels remains a challenge in the short term, an ambitious intensity target, coupled with cheaper green electricity, can accelerate the energy transition. In addition, it stabilizes the economy against volatility in fossil fuel prices. Our results highlight that the rate-based CCTS outperforms the price-based carbon tax policy in promoting the energy transition while sustaining the growth objectives. |
| Keywords: | E-DSGE, Secondary carbon market, Intensity target, Free allocation |
| JEL: | E32 Q48 Q58 D47 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2025-027 |
| By: | Attinasi, Maria Grazia; Boeckelmann, Lukas; Martins, Bernardo De Castro; Meunier, Baptiste; Borin, Alessandro; Conteduca, Francesco Paolo; Mancini, Michele |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel methodology to enhance the granularity of Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) tables. While our general methodology can be applied to any products of interest, we show that the well-documented distortions caused by sectoral aggregation in ICIO tables are particularly pronounced for products with a low substitutability, such as those essential to the green transition (e.g. electric batteries, rare earths). We therefore apply our framework to construct a disaggregated ICIO table that singles out 129 products essential to the energy transition. We then simulate a hypothetical scenario of an East-West supply chain decoupling in green products through a multi-country multi-sector model calibrated with our tailored disaggregated ICIO table. Results reveal substantial economic costs: welfare losses reach 3% and trade between blocs contracts by 20%, even when accounting for trade diversion through neutral countries. We finally quantify how the green supply chain decoupling increases the intensities of greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting how trade barriers on green sectors affect both economic efficiency and climate objectives. JEL Classification: C67, F13, F18, F51, Q48 |
| Keywords: | decoupling, global trade, global value chains, green transition, sectoral granularity |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253152 |
| By: | Joaquin Vespignani; Russell Smyth; Jamel Saadaoui; Yitian Wang |
| Abstract: | We develop novel, stage-specific, geopolitical risk indicators to examine how geopolitical risk is distributed across the supply-chain for lithium and copper, two minerals which are vital for low-carbon technologies. We find that refining is the geopolitical bottleneck for both minerals, reflecting that refining capacity is highly concentrated in China. We examine refining diversification, strategic stockpiling, and AI-driven productivity gains as complementary policy instruments for mitigating exposure to geopolitical risk at the refining stage. We show that reducing China's refining share substantially lowers refining-stage geopolitical risk, with larger gains for lithium than for copper. We find that stockpiling plays a critical role in buffering near-term geopolitical shocks, but significantly increases the projected shortfall in copper and lithium which is needed to realize the clean energy transition under alternative Net Zero pathways. We demonstrate that AI-driven productivity gains will be needed to narrow the projected supply gaps for both minerals. Our results suggest that ensuring effective security of critical minerals requires a coordinated policy mix, combining refining diversification, strategic stockpiling, and productivity-enhancing technological change. |
| Keywords: | critical minerals, copper, lithium, geopolitical risk, refining bottlenecks |
| JEL: | C14 Q20 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-15 |
| By: | David P. Brown (University of Alberta); Mar Reguant (Northwestern University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the rapid expansion of wind and solar generation in Spain has reshaped wholesale electricity prices, ancillary service (AS) market costs, and market structure. Using an empirical strategy that exploits exogenous variation in renewable potential, we estimate how market outcomes would have differed under lower renewable capacity (and subsequently, renewable output). We find that rising wind and solar output substantially reduced wholesale prices. However, these reductions are partially offset by increases in AS market procurement and the associated operating costs driven by congestion and other operational challenges of variable generation. We show that while renewable growth reduces concentration in the wholesale market, AS markets remain highly concentrated, with limited scope for competition in key market segments. Our results highlight both the substantial net consumer benefits of renewable expansion on final prices (wholesale plus AS markets), while demonstrating the need for AS market reforms to reduce market concentration and cost-effectively manage increasing levels of renewable generation. |
| Keywords: | Electricity Markets; Energy Transition; Intermittency; Market Power |
| JEL: | L13 L50 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:022362 |
| By: | Henrekson, Magnus (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Sandström, Christian (Linneaus University, Växjö, Sweden); Stenkula, Mikael (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | Green Deals have been introduced across Western economies as large-scale, mission-oriented innovation policies (MOIPs) intended to combine economic growth with environmental sustainability. Rooted in the concept of an “entrepreneurial state, ” these initiatives reflect renewed confidence in governments’ ability to direct technological and industrial transformation. However, their outcomes have frequently diverged from expectations. This volume examines the theoretical foundations and empirical results of Green Deals, highlighting the institutional, economic, and behavioral factors that contribute to their shortcomings. Drawing on perspectives from evolutionary economics, public choice theory, and behavioral political economy, the contributors analyze a wide range of cases, including Germany’s Energiewende, Italy’s Superbonus, and the European Union’s hydrogen and battery programs. Across these examples, recurring challenges such as rent-seeking, mission capture, optimism bias, and distorted incentives are identified. The findings indicate that while Green Deals have advanced ambitious sustainability goals, they often undermine competitiveness and fiscal stability while generating limited environmental benefits. The volume concludes by outlining alternative pathways that emphasize incremental, technology-neutral, and institutionally grounded approaches to sustainability—approaches that align more closely with long-term economic resilience and effective environmental policy. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship policy; Green deals; Green transition; Innovation policy; Moonshot policies; Public choice |
| JEL: | H50 L26 L52 O33 O38 P16 |
| Date: | 2026–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1553 |
| By: | Arvanitopoulos, Theodoros; Bulian, Simon; Wilson, Charlie; Jordan, Andrew J; Tosun, Jale; Vasilakos, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | The corpus of national climate policies continues to grow - but to what effect? Using data on 3, 917 policy instruments across 43 OECD countries and major emerging economies from 2000-2022, we show that national climate policy portfolios specializing in instrument types and sectors are associated with faster reductions in fossil CO2 emission intensity. Supported by exemplar country case studies, we also provide quantitative evidence that the effectiveness of climate policy is amplified by long-term emission reduction targets and the presence of dedicated governmental bodies including ministries and intergovernmental organisations. The cumulative effect of all climate policy portfolios over our study period amounts to 3.1 GtCO2 fewer emissions in 2022 relative to a no-policy counterfactual - substantially less than what's needed to stay on track for the Paris Agreement goals. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2026–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137198 |
| By: | Omar Hniche Pr (UM5R - Université Mohammed V de Rabat – Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Économiques et Sociales – Souissi); Sara Kayouh ((LARCEPEM) - Laboratoire de Recherche en Compétitivité Economique et Performance Managériale (LARCEPEM) Centre Interdisciplinaire de Recherche en performance et Compétitivité Faculté des Sciences Juridiques Economiques et Socia) |
| Abstract: | The growing intensity of climate change and environmental constraints has challenged the sustainability of traditional growth models, particularly in emerging economies characterized by strong sectoral heterogeneity. In this context, green taxation has gained prominence as a key policy instrument for internalizing environmental externalities while supporting sustainable development. However, the effectiveness and equity of environmental taxation critically depend on its design, sectoral alignment, and institutional context. This article examines whether a green taxation model based on progressive sectoral carbon footprintscan enable Morocco to reconcile environmental effectiveness, fiscal equity, and economic sustainability.The study adopts a systematic literature reviewmethodology in accordance with the PRISMA guidelines, drawing on peer-reviewed articles indexed in Scopus and Web of Science over the period 2007–2025. A total of 22 studies were included, encompassing econometric analyses (ARDL and CS-ARDL), computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, sectoral impact assessments, and institutional studies related to environmental taxation in Morocco and comparable economies.The results indicate that green and carbon taxation can significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the long run, particularly when combined with complementary policies such as energy capacity expansion, technological upgrading, and digital transformation. However, the findings also reveal substantial sectoral disparitiesin carbon intensity and adjustment capacity, which limit the effectiveness of uniform tax schemes. Progressive, sector-based taxation frameworks emerge as more suitable for enhancing environmental efficiency while mitigating adverse economic and social effects. Moreover, institutional quality, fiscal governance, and revenue recycling mechanisms are identified as decisive factors shaping policy outcomes and social acceptability.Overall, the article demonstrates that a progressive green taxation model grounded in sectoral carbon footprints constitutes a promising governance tool for aligning environmental objectives with fiscal equity and economic sustainability in Morocco.Keywords:Green taxation; Carbon tax; Sectoral carbon footprint; Fiscal equity; Environmental sustainability; Morocco; Progressive taxation |
| Abstract: | L'aggravation continue du changement climatique et le renforcement des contraintes environnementales mettent en question la viabilité des schémas de croissance conventionnels, notamment dans les pays émergents marqués par une forte diversité sectorielle. Dans ce contexte, la fiscalité verte s'affirme comme un levier central de l'action publique visant à corriger les externalités environnementales tout en favorisant un développement durable. Néanmoins, la performance et la justice de cette fiscalité reposent largement sur les choix de conception, le ciblage sectoriel et l'environnement institutionnel dans lequel elle s'inscrit. Cet article analyse la capacité d'un dispositif de fiscalité verte fondé sur une progressivité des empreintes carbone sectorielles à permettre au Maroc de concilier efficacité environnementale, équité fiscale et soutenabilité économique.La recherche s'appuie sur une revue systématique de la littérature menée selon le protocole PRISMA, à partir de publications scientifiques évaluées par les pairs et répertoriées dans les bases Scopus et Web of Science sur la période 2007–2025. Vingt-deux études ont été sélectionnées, incluant des travaux économétriques (ARDL et CS-ARDL), des modèles d'équilibre général calculable, des analyses d'impacts sectoriels ainsi que des études institutionnelles portant sur la fiscalité environnementale au Maroc et dans des économies présentant des caractéristiques similaires.Les résultats mettent en évidence que les instruments de fiscalité verte, et en particulier la taxation du carbone, contribuent à une réduction notable des émissions de gaz à effet de serre sur le long terme, surtout lorsqu'ils sont accompagnés de politiques complémentaires telles que le renforcement des capacités énergétiques, l'innovation technologique et la transition numérique. Toutefois, l'analyse souligne l'existence de fortes hétérogénéités sectorielles en termes d'intensité carbone et de capacités d'adaptation, limitant ainsi l'efficacité des mécanismes fiscaux uniformes. À cet égard, des dispositifs de taxation progressive différenciés par secteur apparaissent plus pertinents pour améliorer la performance environnementale tout en réduisant les impacts économiques et sociaux défavorables. Par ailleurs, la qualité des institutions, l'efficacité de la gouvernance fiscale et les modalités de recyclage des recettes jouent un rôle déterminant dans l'efficacité des politiques mises en œuvre et leur acceptabilité sociale.En conclucion, l'étude montre qu'un système de fiscalité verte progressive, fondé sur les empreintes carbone sectorielles, représente un instrument de gouvernance prometteur pour articuler les objectifs environnementaux avec les exigences d'équité fiscale et de soutenabilité économique au Maroc. |
| Keywords: | Green taxation Carbon tax Sectoral carbon footprint Fiscal equity Environmental sustainability Morocco Progressive taxation, Green taxation, Carbon tax, Sectoral carbon footprint, Fiscal equity, Environmental sustainability, Morocco, Progressive taxation |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05458513 |
| By: | Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa; Inan, Mediha; Li, Aurora; Paleschke, Maximilian; Steitz, Janek; von Wangenheim, Sven |
| Abstract: | Conventional wisdom holds that American material superiority leaves Europe with little room for manoeuvre. We dispute this. Raw power is not leverage. Leverage arises from asymmetric dependencies-the capacity to impose costs without incurring proportionate harm. Examining macroeconomic ties, product dependencies, financial markets, digital infrastructure, and energy, we find that Europe holds more cards than assumed: chokepoints in uranium enrichment and turbine supply, a USD 10 trillion consumer market US tech cannot abandon, and a coming LNG buyer's market. The US position is fragile too-Treasury demand depends on London's hedge funds, tech valuations require European consumers, and LNG exporters need Europe's premium prices. The United States cannot feast on global markets and retreat to its own shores at the same time. Europe has tools to make this contradiction costly but deploying them requires action: making the Anti-Coercion Instrument credible, expanding priority procurement powers, strengthening its digital position, treating the structure of financial markets and capital flows as geopolitical issues, and building intergovernmental capacity that includes the UK. |
| Keywords: | Trump, Europe, geopolitics |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dzimps:337419 |