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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Cavit Baran (Sabancõ University); Janet Currie (Yale University and NBER); Bahadõr Dursun (Newcastle University and IZA); Erdal Tekin (American University, IZA, and NBER) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first nationwide U.S. evidence on the effects of electric vehicle (EV) adoption on air quality and child health. Using county-level data from 2010-2021, we link EV registrations to air pollution, birth outcomes, and emergency department visits. Endogenous adoption is addressed using two-way fixed effects and an instrumental variables strategy exploiting the rollout of federally designated Alternative Fuel Corridors. Greater EV adoption significantly lowers nitrogen dioxide and improves infant and child health, reducing very low birth weight, prematurity, and asthma-related emergency visits. The largest health gains occur in high-pollution areas and exceed $1.2-$4.0 billion annually. |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2486 |
| By: | Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) |
| Abstract: | Liquefied natural gas (LNG) plays a pivotal role in ASEAN’s energy security and its transition towards lower-carbon energy systems. As electricity demand continues to rise alongside economic growth and urbanisation, LNG offers a flexible and relatively lower-emissions alternative to coal, while providing the firm capacity required to support the integration of renewable energy. However, global LNG markets have entered a period of heightened volatility, characterised by rapid and wide-ranging price fluctuations driven by shifting supply–demand balances, geopolitical developments, and evolving energy policies in major consuming regions. This Policy Brief examines recent developments in global and regional LNG markets, with particular attention to Southeast Asia. It analyses the structural drivers of price volatility, including Europe’s increased reliance on LNG, China’s expanding and fluctuating gas demand, and the growing role of the United States as a major LNG supplier. The brief also highlights the emergence of new LNG-importing countries in ASEAN and the implications of market uncertainty for their energy security and investment planning. In addition, it addresses the increasing importance of methane emissions management and greenhouse gas mitigation in shaping the long-term role of LNG. Drawing on expert discussions held between 2024 and 2025, the brief proposes policy directions to stabilise LNG markets in ASEAN while aligning energy security objectives with climate commitments. Latest Articles |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2025-20 |
| By: | Lång, Elisabeth (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI); Department of Management and Engineering, Linköping University); Adell, Emeli (Trivector Traffic); Winslott Hiselius, Lena (Department of Technology and Society, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether electric vehicle (EV) users travel differently from internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) users, and whether any observed differences arise from trip frequency, trip length, or user characteristics. We use two unique and complementary contemporary data sources: national register data on annual vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) at the car level and multi-month GPS travel diaries capturing daily mobility patterns for battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV), and ICEV users. Register-based results show that privately owned BEVs and PHEVs are driven substantially longer annual distances than ICEVs, even after conditioning on registered user sociodemographic characteristics and car attributes. GPS data reveal more modest differences: BEV users drive longer daily distances but do not make more trips. The BEV–ICEV gap diminishes when car class and individual characteristics are controlled for, and PHEV users do not differ systematically from ICEV users. Overall, the higher VKT among EVs and EV users— particularly for BEVs—either reflects selection, whereby high-mileage drivers are more likely to adopt EVs, or behavioral responses, whereby EV ownership lowers the perceived cost of car travel and encourages substitution toward more distant destinations. |
| Keywords: | battery electric vehicles; plug-in hybrid vehicles; vehicle kilometers traveled; vehicle trip frequency; travel behavior; GPS travel diaries |
| JEL: | Q41 Q51 Q55 R41 |
| Date: | 2026–02–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2026_002 |
| By: | César Ducruet; Mariantonia Lo Prete |
| Abstract: | Europe as a whole is often regarded as a frontrunner in the domain of port-city sustainability, thanks to a wide set of international, national, and local initiatives. This paper is a review of local initiatives that are either individual (single port city) or collective (partnerships among several port cities), in the domains of energy transition and transport fluidity. We find that individual initiatives concentrate in northern Europe, in the largest ports, and at a few southern ones like Valencia or Marseilles. Conversely, collective actions are more concentrated in the south, including mostly small and medium-sized port cities, through projects financed by the European Commission. Besides, we show that port-urban congestion and PM2.5 pollution concentrate in the demographically and logistically largest port cities, which also dominate container throughput rankings and have the highest number of initiatives. We discuss the imperatives of ensuring a better regional balance across the continent and its port-city hierarchy. |
| Keywords: | congestion; energy transition; Europe; population exposure; port cities; transport fluidity |
| JEL: | I15 Q53 Q56 R40 R11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-3 |
| By: | Mohammed Elhaj Mustafa Ali (University of Khartoum); Abdul-Hameed Elias Suliman (University of Khartoum) |
| Abstract: | This study primarily aims to test the applicability of the inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis to Sudan using time series data from 1970 to 2022. The study is driven by the rise in greenhouse gas emissions—such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)—during the last decades in which the country became an oil producer and exporter. To achieve this objective, the study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) co-integration technique, which is well-suited for analyzing short- and long-run relationships. Following the essential pre-tests, the analysis reveals a significant integrated relationship among the variables under consideration. The primary finding of the analysis is that the EKC in Sudan follows a U-shaped pattern. This implies a direct relationship between economic development and environmental deterioration, particularly in terms of CO2 emissions. The findings also highlight that the continuous growth in energy consumption, electricity production, and urbanization directly contributes to environmental degradation. Based on these results, the study proposes a number of recommendations, including policy interventions and behavioral changes, aimed at addressing the environmental imbalance identified in the analysis. |
| Date: | 2025–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1777 |
| By: | Elias Asproudis (Swansea University, School of Social Sciences, Department of Economics, UK); Eleftherios Filippiadis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how environmental taxes, abatement effort, and green trade unions interact within a differentiated duopoly under decentralised and centralised wage setting structures. We show that trade union environmental awareness acts as a substitute for environmental taxation: as unions internalize local damages in wage negotiations, the regulator optimally chooses a lower emissions tax. Centralised wage bargaining leads to higher wages and lower emissions, while decentralised bargaining yields higher output, profits, and social welfare. From a policy perspective, we argue that incorporating green trade unions’ environmental preferences into environmental governance can improve efficiency of the environmental policy taxation. |
| Keywords: | environmental tax, abatement effort, green trade unions, environmental damages, labour market structure |
| JEL: | Q5 L13 D43 J5 H2 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2026_03 |
| By: | Brüggemann, Anke; Rode, Johannes |
| Abstract: | In diesem Kapitel analysieren wir den mittelfristigen Ausblick für die Energiepreise in Deutschland. Unsere empirische Analyse zeigt, dass der Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien mittelfristig zu einem Rückgang des Börsenstrompreises führen wird. Das wird Großabnehmern zugutekommen, insbesondere jenen, die von Vergünstigungen bei Netzentgelten, staatlichen Abgaben und Umlagen profitieren. Allerdings wird der Ausbau der Stromnetze und von Speicherkapazität wieder kostentreibend wirken. Langfristig sind die Unsicherheiten hinsichtlich des technologischen Fortschritts und der politischen Rahmenbedingungen sehr groß. Dennoch scheint es wahrscheinlich, dass die Energiepreise für die Industrie in Deutschland auch in der langen Frist weiterhin über dem Niveau anderer Länder liegen werden und damit einen dauerhaften Wettbewerbsnachteil bedeuten. Dies gilt insbesondere im Vergleich mit Regionen mit sehr guten Standortbedingungen für die Erzeugung von Strom aus Wind und Sonne. |
| Date: | 2025–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:159317 |
| By: | Oskar V{\aa}le; Shiliang Zhang; Sabita Maharjan; Gro Kl{\ae}boe |
| Abstract: | The balancing market in the energy sector plays a critical role in physically and financially balancing the supply and demand. Modeling dynamics in the balancing market can provide valuable insights and prognosis for power grid stability and secure energy supply. While complex machine learning models can achieve high accuracy, their black-box nature severely limits the model interpretability. In this paper, we explore the trade-off between model accuracy and interpretability for the energy balancing market. Particularly, we take the example of forecasting manual frequency restoration reserve (mFRR) activation price in the balancing market using real market data from different energy price zones. We explore the interpretability of mFRR forecasting using two models: extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine and explainable boosting machine (EBM). We also integrate the two models, and we benchmark all the models against a baseline naive model. Our results show that EBM provides forecasting accuracy comparable to XGBoost while yielding a considerable level of interpretability. Our analysis also underscores the challenge of accurately predicting the mFRR price for the instances when the activation price deviates significantly from the spot price. Importantly, EBM's interpretability features reveal insights into non-linear mFRR price drivers and regional market dynamics. Our study demonstrates that EBM is a viable and valuable interpretable alternative to complex black-box AI models in the forecast for the balancing market. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.00049 |
| By: | Global South Center for Clean Transportation |
| Abstract: | Policy Levers for Global South Electrification Across emerging and developing economies, researchers and policymakers are testing new approaches to accelerate vehicle electrification while balancing local priorities such as affordability, reliability, and industrial development. In this issue, we feature contributions from partners advancing electrification policy in Brazil, Chile, Kenya, Mexico, and Southeast Asia. This is the first issue of Majority Mobility, a quarterly newsletter and a journal. Each edition will include up-dates on the Global South Center’s work alongside concise, technical articles from our research team and invited contributors from around the world, highlighting timely work aligned with that issue’s theme. It will also feature “A View from the Ground”—short reflections from our government and industry collaborators who are driving sustainable mobility solutions in their countries, offering real-time insights into the imple- mentation of clean mobility initiatives. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt43h188zb |
| By: | Paul Simshauser |
| Keywords: | Peaking duties, energy-only markets, dispatchable plant capacity, gas turbines |
| JEL: | D52 D53 G12 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2601 |
| By: | Arinc, Ibrahim Said (SOCAR Türkiye) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes Türkiye's natural gas market reform through the lens of institutional path dependence, demonstrating the failure of textbook liberalization strategies in a system marked by embedded support structures and geopolitical constraints. The delayed restructuring of BOTAŞ and the absence of a clear segmentation framework prevented the emergence of a well-functioning domestic market, constraining price formation and liquidity, and ultimately hindering Türkiye's hub potential. To address this structural gap, this study proposes a unique hybrid institutional pathway operationalized through a novel Dual-Ring Model. This model segments gas supply between a regulated Guardian Ring (for vulnerable consumers) and a market-based Competitive Ring, fostering traded liquidity and authentic benchmark pricing. Drawing on the "second-best" institutional approach and the principle of "embedded autonomy", the framework argues against full liberalization. The AggregateTR procurement mechanism coordinates strategic state bargaining power, notably leveraging the critical 2026–2030 contract rollover period, with transparent competitive allocation. Two original Structural Market Indicators (SSDI and TVR) monitor support targeting and traded liquidity. Scenario-based analysis demonstrates how disciplined segmentation and phased support recalibration, including the strategic release of Sakarya Domestic Gas Production into the Competitive Ring, progressively balance supply security, affordability, and benchmark credibility. This framework provides a resilient hybrid gas market architecture grounded in Türkiye's structural context, offering actionable insights for the critical 2026–2030 contract rollover window and the subsequent post-2030 market design. The approach offers replicable lessons for other gas import-dependent emerging economies, reconciling liberalization with strategic state coordination. |
| Date: | 2026–01–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:sg9ym_v1 |
| By: | Brückmann, G. PhD (University of Bern); El-Ajou, Walid; Stadelmann-Steffen, Isabelle |
| Abstract: | In this pre-registered experiment, we describe how we use a full-fledged serious game, developed in collaboration with energy modellers, energy system experts, and game designers, as an experimental treatment in a large-scale population survey in Switzerland. While previous research has used serious games mostly for targeted and relatively small groups, we assess whether serious gaming has the potential to serve as an effective information tool for the broader population. More specifically, we test whether serious games can influence individual opinion formation on complex issues, such as the energy transition, arguing that the immersive nature of a serious game may be more effective than conventional information treatments in triggering learning effects and ultimately influencing opinion formation. Based on our results, we show that playing the game did not, on a general level, produce any significant effects on either efficacy or policy support. However, the game led to varying reactions among players and influenced support for expanding specific energy sources in accordance with the game’s implications. In light of these nuanced results, we discuss implications for researches and stakeholders. |
| Date: | 2026–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:x5u6b_v1 |
| By: | Jamel Saadaoui |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs a new identification method to quantify bilateral geopolitical shocks-geopolitical turning points- i.e., abrupt, unforeseen state-to-state political turning points. Geopolitical shocks are captured by the second difference of the Political Relationship Index (Δ²PRI), a monthly narrative-based index constructed from Chinese government and media coverage. Unlike conventional global geopolitical risk indicators, Δ²PRI separates sudden departures from bilateral diplomatic paths so causal estimation is possible in a comparative cross-national context. Quantile instrumental variable local projections (IV-LP) are applied in the paper to estimate the dynamic and asymmetric geopolitical shock impact on world oil prices. It is estimated that US-China relational improvements lower oil prices by 0.2% in the short run and increase them by 0.3% in the medium run, with larger effects at the distribution boundaries of oil prices. Replication from Japan-China data establishes external validity. The paper adds a replicable analysis framework to explain how political shocks for dyads with heterogeneous institutional history and strategic rivalry spill over into global economic instability. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk, oil prices, quantile local projections, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | C26 C32 F51 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-08 |
| By: | Canan Yildirim (Rennes SB - Rennes School of Business); Dieter Vanwalleghem (Rennes SB - Rennes School of Business) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines financial market reactions to the rise and collapse of the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, a major voluntary climate initiative launched in April 2021. Using an event study, we find that only founding members experienced significant negative stock price reactions, with average declines of 2% upon joining, suggesting investors viewed the commitments as credible but costly. Later signings and exits had no significant effect, reflecting declining credibility as the alliance weakened its governance amid political pressure and member departures. These findings underscore the role of institutional context and internal governance in shaping market responses to voluntary environmental commitments in banking. 1 We are grateful to NZBA for providing us with the full dates of signings, and Jojo Jacob, Anke Piepenbrink, and other seminar participants for their helpful comments during the Center for Unframed Thinking seminar, Spotlight on Green Transition (June 2025). |
| Keywords: | Event study, Voluntary environmental alliances, Financial institutions, Climate change, Environmental strategy |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05381657 |
| By: | Robin Fischer; Anton Pichler |
| Abstract: | Mobilising private capital is a critical bottleneck of the energy transition, yet recent crisis-driven windfall profits for fossil power firms suggest that market signals may still favour carbon-intensive assets. Here we analyse a panel of 900 European power firms (2001-2023) to resolve whether these profits reflect a durable profitability advantage or a crisis-driven anomaly. Using machine-learning clustering and Bayesian model averaging, we identify a structural divergence: wind and solar portfolios exhibit rising profitability, with return on assets among wind-dominated firms increasing by over 6% between 2014 and 2023. Conversely, higher fossil portfolio shares are increasingly associated with lower profitability, with marginal effects reaching -4% by 2023, while renewable-dominated firms match or outperform their fossil-heavy counterparts across most European regions. These findings suggest that the record profits of fossil incumbents were distinct outliers, masking an ongoing decline in the profitability of carbon-intensive business models. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.22167 |
| By: | Helmi Mansour (University of CarthageAuthor-Email: helmi.mansour.2022@ihec.ucar.tn); Monia Ghazali (University of CarthageAuthor-Email: monia.ghazali@ihec.u-carthage.tn) |
| Abstract: | Driven by climate change concerns and the transition toward renewable energy, the dynamics of global investment are shifting significantly. This rapid change is particularly concerning for MENA countries, as their dependence on oil revenues exposes their economies to substantial sustainability risks. In this context, soft power—an intangible form of influence rooted in a country's attractive qualities—emerges as a critical yet underexplored factor influencing the decisions of policymakers and investors. Using a dynamic panel model, the research first analyzes data from 77 countries, then narrows the focus to the MENA region to explore the relationship between soft power trends and inward FDI flows. The System GMM estimation results reveal that soft power has a positive and significant influence on inward foreign direct investment flows, with this effect being particularly strong in MENA countries. As such, this study highlights the strategic importance of leveraging soft power to enhance investment appeal on the global stage and serves as a reference for policymakers aiming to attract foreign investors, especially for MENA countries, where the need to move beyond oil dependence is becoming increasingly critical. |
| Date: | 2025–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1794 |
| By: | Valentin Favre-Bulle; Sylvain Weber |
| Abstract: | Using k-means clustering, we analyse two years of hourly electricity consumption data from approximately 4, 000 households, based on specific consumption features. We identify three distinct clusters with clearly differentiated consumption levels and daily load profiles. A multinomial logit model links cluster membership to dwelling characteristics (e.g., heat pumps, photovoltaic panels) and, for a subsample of 158 households, to detailed socio-demographic variables such as employment status, age, and appliance usage. Dwelling characteristics primarily distinguish low- and highconsumption households, while socio-demographic factors further differentiate among remaining groups. These insights support targeted demand-side policies and enable providers to implement tailored dynamic pricing strategies. |
| Keywords: | Household electricity load profiles; Cluster analysis; K-means; Multinomial logit model; Load curves; Smart meters |
| JEL: | Q41 D12 C38 L94 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:26-03 |
| By: | Fauziah Zen (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Denisa Athallia (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Nadira Melia (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | ASEAN governments spent over US$30 billion on fossil-fuel subsidies in 2023 – around three times public spending on renewable energy (RE). This persistent fiscal bias, despite rising climate risks and net-zero commitments, entrenches dependence on fossil fuels and undermines the competitiveness of clean energy. This Policy Brief examines the fiscal barriers that sustain this dependency, including fossil-fuel subsidies, policy instability, and persistent financing gaps, and proposes policy pathways to accelerate a just energy transition. Focusing on Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, the analysis shows that existing tax incentives, carbon pricing initiatives, and blended finance mechanisms have not yet been sufficient to offset fossil-fuel price advantages or mobilise investment at the scale required. The brief argues that phasing out fossil-fuel subsidies, scaling up green and blended finance, and proactively managing stranded assets are critical to breaking fossil-fuel lock-in and aligning fiscal policy with ASEAN’s climate and development objectives. Latest Articles |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2025-17 |
| By: | Zitao Hong; Zhen Peng; Xueping Liu |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of ongoing carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, accurate prediction of enterprise carbon emission trends constitutes an essential foundation for energy structure optimization and low-carbon transformation decision-making. Nevertheless, significant heterogeneity persists across regions, industries and individual enterprises regarding energy structure, production scale, policy intensity and governance efficacy, resulting in pronounced distribution shifts and non-stationarity in carbon emission data across both temporal and spatial dimensions. Such cross-regional and cross-enterprise data drift not only compromises the accuracy of carbon emission reporting but substantially undermines the guidance value of predictive models for production planning and carbon quota trading decisions. To address this critical challenge, we integrate causal inference perspectives with stable learning methodologies and time-series modelling, proposing a stable temporal prediction mechanism tailored to distribution shift environments. This mechanism incorporates enterprise-level energy inputs, capital investment, labour deployment, carbon pricing, governmental interventions and policy implementation intensity, constructing a risk consistency-constrained stable learning framework that extracts causal stable features (robust against external perturbations yet demonstrating long-term stable effects on carbon dioxide emissions) from multi-environment samples across diverse policies, regions and industrial sectors. Furthermore, through adaptive normalization and sample reweighting strategies, the approach dynamically rectifies temporal non-stationarity induced by economic fluctuations and policy transitions, ultimately enhancing model generalization capability and explainability in complex environments. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.00775 |
| By: | Mundschenk, Lovisa; Janssen, Lisa; Werner, Hannah (University of Zurich); Reiljan, Andres; Cicchi, Lorenzo |
| Abstract: | Climate change has become increasingly politicized, prompting concerns that it may generate new societal rifts. While elite-level rhetoric—particularly among radical right actors—has grown more adversarial, it remains unclear whether similar affective divisions have emerged among citizens. Using cross-national survey data, this paper examines affective polarization over climate change in France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, and Poland. Mirroring real-world debates that pit stricter climate protection against economic prosperity, we assess mutual affect between individuals on either side of this division, and estimate polarization across the full attitudinal spectrum. Across all countries, we find significant affective polarization with a clear asymmetric pattern: pro-climate citizens express clear in-group warmth and out-group coldness, whereas pro-growth citizens show little affective opposition and in some cases even evaluate climate-oriented individuals more positively than their own group. Moreover, affective polarization among pro-climate respondents is not associated with reduced political tolerance. These findings suggest that mass affective polarization over climate action is less entrenched than elite discourse implies. |
| Date: | 2026–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pm3qd_v1 |
| By: | Valentin Favre-Bulle; Sylvain Weber |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of monetary and non-monetary incentives, individually and combined, on residential electricity consumption. A field experiment in Switzerland provided all participants with access to a custom-developed app offering feedback on electricity use and energy-saving tips. In addition to the control group, one treatment group received social comparisons based on savings relative to similar households, while a second group additionally received financial rewards linked to their electricity savings. We find no strong evidence of treatment effects. We do not observe crowding-out effect from combining monetary and non-monetary incentives, as the difference between treatments is not significant. Treatment effects appear to differ between PV and non-PV owners, with some indication of greater effectiveness for the latter, though further research is needed. Compared to a non-participant group, participation in the experiment and use of the application marginally reduced electricity consumption. |
| Keywords: | Household electricity usage; Demand-side management; Smart metering; Randomised control trial; Field experiment; Difference-in-differences; Crowding-out effect; Social incentives; Financial incentives. |
| JEL: | C93 D12 L94 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irn:wpaper:26-04 |
| By: | Chen Chen Yong (Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Muhammad Hafiz Abdul Majid Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Muhammad Aizat Zainal Alam Author-3-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Business and Economics, Universiti Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - Critical infrastructure sectors form the backbone of national security and economic resilience, yet their dependence on petroleum inputs creates vulnerabilities that are inadequately measured. This study applies hypothetical extraction methodology to examine how petroleum supply disruptions would impact critical infrastructure across four developed economies (the United States, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom) and four developing economies (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand). Methodology - Using input-output analysis, we analyze six essential infrastructure sectors, including inland transport, air transport, water transport, telecommunications, utilities, and public administration. Findings - Our findings reveal striking differences that challenge conventional assumptions about energy security. Developing economies exhibit 2.56 times higher overall infrastructure vulnerability than developed economies. Transportation sectors consistently emerge as the most vulnerable across all countries, with inland transport ranking first in all countries. However, individual patterns reveal significant paradoxes: the United States exhibits unexpectedly high vulnerability despite domestic oil production, whereas the United Kingdom demonstrates exceptional resilience despite its dependence on imports. Novelty - The research identifies two distinct ""infrastructure development paradigms"": efficiency-first models and resilience-integrated approaches. Malaysia exhibits extreme vulnerability, with inland transport scoring 37.88 on the Infrastructure Vulnerability Index, whereas the UK maintains comprehensive resilience at an average IVI of 1.13. The study reveals that developing economies exhibit ""amplification effects, "" in which disruptions cascade with minimal dampening, whereas most developed economies demonstrate ""dampening effects"" that contain vulnerabilities. These findings provide essential insights for national security planning and energy transition policies, demonstrating that infrastructure resilience results from specific design choices rather than automatic outcomes of economic development. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Critical Infrastructure; Petroleum Dependencies; Input-Output Analysis; Economic Vulnerability; Energy Security; Hypothetical Extraction; Infrastructure Resilience |
| JEL: | Q31 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:jber272 |
| By: | Kahn-Lang, Jenya (Resources for the Future); Robertson, Molly (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Electric power is an essential resource for households, businesses, and economies, from keeping lights and life support machines on to powering water conveyance and transportation networks. When there is not enough electricity, the resulting outages can be expensive and even deadly, impacting business activity, comfort, and health.One prime example is the electricity shortage event that occurred in Texas in February 2021. Winter storm Uri caused 246 deaths according to official counts (DSHS 2021), primarily due to power outages, with one estimate putting the death toll over 800 (Weber and Buchele 2022; FERC/NERC 2023). The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimated the total economic cost of the outages at $4.3 billion (Golding et al. 2021).Power outages resulting from extreme events, like the ones in Texas, are becoming more frequent and severe. The traditional methods for ensuring sufficient power supply and incentivizing new investment were not designed for the range of innovation in electric resources that has emerged or the speed of projected demand growth. In addition, it now takes longer to site, build, and interconnect new resources to the power grid. Beyond threatening reliability, current practices can exacerbate affordability concerns and slow decarbonization.This issue brief offers a primer for policymakers considering reforms to ensure sufficient power supply (“resource adequacy”). While resource adequacy is only one dimension of electric reliability, we focus on it because the complex economic fundamentals that have driven existing resource adequacy market designs are not always fully appreciated. |
| Date: | 2026–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:ibrief:ib-26-01 |
| By: | Mohamed Hajjaji (SPE - Laboratoire « Sciences pour l’Environnement » (UMR CNRS 6134 SPE) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Università di Corsica Pasquale Paoli [Université de Corse Pascal Paoli], UTM - Tunis El Manar University [University of Tunis El Manar] [Tunisia] = Université de Tunis El Manar [Tunisie] = جامعة تونس المنار (ar)); Maude Chin Choi (SPE - Laboratoire « Sciences pour l’Environnement » (UMR CNRS 6134 SPE) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Università di Corsica Pasquale Paoli [Université de Corse Pascal Paoli]); Tchougoune Moustapha Mai (SPE - Laboratoire « Sciences pour l’Environnement » (UMR CNRS 6134 SPE) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Università di Corsica Pasquale Paoli [Université de Corse Pascal Paoli]); Christian Cristofari (SPE - Laboratoire « Sciences pour l’Environnement » (UMR CNRS 6134 SPE) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Università di Corsica Pasquale Paoli [Université de Corse Pascal Paoli]); Dhafer Mezghani (UTM - Tunis El Manar University [University of Tunis El Manar] [Tunisia] = Université de Tunis El Manar [Tunisie] = جامعة تونس المنار (ar)); Abdelkader Mami (UTM - Tunis El Manar University [University of Tunis El Manar] [Tunisia] = Université de Tunis El Manar [Tunisie] = جامعة تونس المنار (ar)) |
| Abstract: | As part of the energy transition and efforts to develop green ports, green hydrogen emerges as a promising and environmentally sound solution for achieving carbon neutrality. This study investigates the potential of green hydrogen to decarbonize the Port of Ajaccio through a power-to-power strategy. A detailed electricity consumption profile was constructed based on data from docked vessels and two adjacent buildings. A multi-objective optimization model was employed to determine the optimal configuration of a hybrid energy system. The optimal system includes 12 MW of photovoltaic panels, a 5 MW electrolyzer, a 3 MW fuel cell, and 320 kg of hydrogen storage under water at 35 bar. This configuration enables a significant reduction in pollutant emissions: carbon dioxide (CO₂) by 80.02%, nitrogen oxides (NOₓ) by 84.27%, particulate matter (PM) by 84.27%, and sulfur dioxide (SO₂) by 84.26%. The resulting levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is estimated at 298 €/MWh, making it a competitive alternative to conventional fossil-fuel-based generation. Furthermore, the study highlights the advantages of underwater hydrogen storage, demonstrating that greater storage depths lead to increased hydrogen density, reduced storage volume requirements, and minimized visual impact an essential aspect for enhancing public acceptance. |
| Keywords: | green hydrogen, carbon neutrality, power-to-power, underwater hydrogen storage, Green ports |
| Date: | 2025–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05483331 |
| By: | Adolphsen, Ole; Könneke, Jule |
| Abstract: | Die fossile Außenpolitik der USA unter Präsident Donald Trump hat den Konflikt zwischen Elektro- und Petro-Staaten in der internationalen Klimapolitik verschärft. Auf der 30. Weltklimakonferenz (COP30) in Belém trat diese Blockbildung insbesondere in der Auseinandersetzung um einen Fahrplan zur Abkehr von fossilen Brennstoffen (TAFF) offen zutage. Während eine wachsende Zahl von Staaten TAFF als notwendige Konsequenz der Energiewende betrachtet, verhinderten fossile Produzenten substantielle Fortschritte. Auf der Konferenz wurde deutlich, dass der UNFCCC-Prozess aus strukturellen Gründen nur begrenzt in der Lage ist, diesen Verteilungskonflikt zu moderieren. Für die EU ergibt sich daraus ein strategisches Dilemma zwischen den Zielen, den COP-Prozess weiter auf TAFF auszurichten oder zentrale Mechanismen des Pariser Abkommens zu stabilisieren. Im Hinblick auf die nächste globale Bestandsaufnahme im Rahmen der COP33 wird sich entscheiden, ob dieses Dilemma auflösbar ist. |
| Keywords: | 30. Weltklimakonferenz (COP30), internationale Klimapolitik, Elektro-Staaten, Petro-Staaten, Klimarahmenkonvention (UNFCCC), Pariser Abkommen, fossile Außenpolitik der USA, Donald Trump, Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:335920 |
| By: | Jan Ditzen; Erkal Ersoy; Haoyang Li; Francesco Ravazzolo |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether a small set of dominant countries can account for most of the dynamics of regional oil demand and improve forecasting performance. We focus on dominant drivers within the OECD and a broad GVAR sample covering over 90\% of world GDP. Our approach identifies dominant drivers from a high-dimensional concentration matrix estimated row by row using two complementary variable-selection methods, LASSO and the one-covariate-at-a-time multiple testing (OCMT) procedure. Dominant countries are selected by ordering the columns of the concentration matrix by their norms and applying a criterion based on consecutive norm ratios, combined with economically motivated restrictions to rule out pseudo-dominance. The United States emerges as a global dominant driver, while France and Japan act as robust regional hubs representing European and Asian components, respectively. Including these dominant drivers as regressors for all countries yields statistically significant forecast gains over autoregressive benchmarks and country-specific LASSO models, particularly during periods of heightened global volatility. The proposed framework is flexible and can be applied to other macroeconomic and energy variables with network structure or spatial dependence. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.01963 |
| By: | Berha, Andu; Khemani, Stuti |
| Abstract: | Unreliable electricity supply in developing countries is a persistent problem with significant adverse consequences for economic growth. This paper uses a novel database on utilities, which provides systematic data on reliability, and links it to available data on country-level institutions to provide new evidence on variation in reliability across countries. The data reveal that utilities located in countries with weak institutions for controlling corruption perform significantly worse at delivering reliable electricity. The data also show that privately owned utilities perform better than publicly owned ones, consistent with standard reforms of privatization that are pursued to overcome governance problems. However, private ownership is less likely in countries with higher control of corruption, where public utilities perform better than their counterparts in countries with weaker institutions. Regardless of ownership, the estimates suggest that any given utility is likely to perform worse over time when the country in which it is located has weaker institutions. The paper forges links with available case studies to discuss potential mechanisms that may account for the correlations revealed in the data, yielding forward-looking ideas for how to turn around utility performance in weak institutional contexts. |
| Date: | 2026–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11290 |
| By: | Lorenzo Mori (University of Padova); Gert Peersman (Ghent University) |
| Abstract: | A common approach for estimating the macroeconomic effects of oil supply news employs SVAR-IV models identified using changes in oil futures prices around OPEC quota announcements as an instrument. However, we show that the reduced-form oil price innovations, structural shocks, and the instrumental variable in these estimations are all Granger-caused by financial variables, indicating informational deficiencies in the VAR model and contamination of the instrument. To resolve these issues, we incorporate financial indicators into the econometrician’s information set, yielding significantly different results. These include a sharper short-term output decline, lower and less persistent inflationary effects, and a reversal of the monetary policy response. Our results also show greater stability over time and the disappearance of puzzling responses. Finally, we identify similar issues in other prominent oil-market SVAR models, suggesting that informational deficiencies are a pervasive issue in oil-market research. |
| Keywords: | oil supply news, VARs. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pad:wpaper:0314 |
| By: | Vladimir Hlasny; Yasmine Abdelfattah (Cairo University); Shireen AlAzzawi; Hala Abou-Ali; Rania Megally |
| Abstract: | Energy poverty across the Middle East and North Africa leads to health and growth hazards for millions of children, who are exposed and vulnerable to poor climate conditions at home. These hazards are heightened by the increasing occurrence of extreme temperature and precipitation events, as children become even more exposed and their organisms even more vulnerable to indoor climate conditions. This paper investigates the nexus between indoor and outdoor climate conditions, on the one hand, and children s anthropometric development (stunting, wasting) and mortality (neonatal and infant), on the other hand. Children s access to clean energy is gauged using a Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index or a principal component analysis score of households connection to electricity, and usage of clean fuels and cooking facilities. Highresolution temperature data are matched to households at the level of provinces. The analysis is applied to household-level microdata from 22 health surveys across ten MENA developing countries, and trends over time are assessed. We find that energy poverty has positive effects on longer-term anthropometric growth (i.e., risk of stunting) across most countries, but the effects on shorter-term or more acute health indicators, including wasting and mortality, are limited. Energy poverty is associated with stunting particularly in Morocco, Mauritania, Palestine and Tunisia. It is also modestly associated with infant mortality, especially in Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey. Girls, and children of wealthier, more educated parents in urban areas face lower stunting, wasting and mortality risks in most countries. These results underscore the necessity for targeted genderresponsive policies addressing energy poverty and climate resilience to improve child health outcomes in the region. |
| Date: | 2025–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1789 |
| By: | Bastianin, Andrea; Castelnovo, Paolo; Frattini, Federico Fabio; Vona, Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a novel text-based approach to identify CRM-saving innovation using patent data and studies how mineral price signals shape the direction of technological change. Using patent data from 1978–2020, we distinguish technologies that rely on CRMs from those that explicitly aim to reduce their use through efficiency improvements, substitution, or recycling. We provide evidence consistent with the induced-innovation hypothesis: higher mineral prices reallocate inventive effort toward CRM-saving technologies, while having little effect on CRM-reliant innovation. The response strengthens over time and is especially pronounced for battery minerals and rare earth elements. These findings are robust to alternative specifications and are reinforced by complementary identification strategies, including a falsification test and the use of plausibly exogenous supply-side price variation. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:391378 |
| By: | Jingni Zhang; David Popp |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EVs) are crucial for cutting transportation emissions, yet the policy drivers of EV innovation remain underexplored. This study analyzes firm-level panel data on EV and battery patents, covering more than 4, 000 firms across 19 countries from 2010 to 2021, to assess how these policy tools and their interactions in different time horizons influence innovative activity. We test the effects of individual policy instruments that either raise demand for EVs or support the development of EV technologies. Stringent fuel-economy standards, financial incentives, adoption targets, and public R&D investments each significantly increase patenting in EV and battery technologies. Moreover, long-term EV targets amplify the innovative impact of public R&D and standards while diminishing the marginal effect of short-term price signals. The results suggest that governments can accelerate clean automotive innovation by combining long-term adoption commitments with sustained R&D investment or strong performance standards, and by managing these instruments as a coordinated policy portfolio rather than as separate tools. The study contributes cross-country, firm-level evidence that links policy design to the direction of clean technology innovation. |
| JEL: | O31 O38 Q55 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34763 |
| By: | Nathan Engelman Lado; Ahmed Alahmed; Audun Botterud; Saurabh Amin |
| Abstract: | We examine the joint investment and operational decisions of a prosumer, a customer who both consumes and generates electricity, under net energy metering (NEM) tariffs. Traditional NEM schemes provide temporally flat compensation at the retail price for net energy exports over a billing period. However, ongoing reforms in several U.S. states are introducing time-varying prices and asymmetric import/export compensation to better align incentives with grid costs. While prior studies treat PV capacity as exogenous and focus primarily on consumption behavior, this work endogenizes PV investment and derives the marginal value of solar capacity for a flexible prosumer under asymmetric NEM tariffs. We characterize optimal investment and show how optimal investment changes with prices and PV costs. Through this analysis, we identify a PV effect: changes in NEM pricing in one period can influence net demand and consumption in generating periods with unchanged prices through adjustments in optimal PV investment. The PV effect weakens the ability of higher import prices to increase prosumer payments, with direct implications for NEM reform. We validate our theoretical results in a case study using simulated household and tariff data derived from historical conditions in Massachusetts. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.02284 |
| By: | François-Charles Wolff (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Pierre-Alexandre Mahieu (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Brice Trouillet (LETG - Nantes - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - LETG - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - IGARUN - Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Humanités - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Alexia Pigeault (LETG - Nantes - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - LETG - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - IGARUN - Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Humanités - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, CAPACITÉS SAS - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Nicolas Rollo (LETG - Nantes - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - LETG - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 - UBO EPE - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - IGARUN - Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Humanités - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | While participatory democracy invites all citizens to take part directly in the decision-making process, the selection of participants in public debates is a critical issue for the legitimacy of the resulting public choices. This paper examines this question in the context of the national public debate on offshore wind energy held in France in the first quarter of 2024. We study an original survey measuring spatial preferences for offshore wind energy in which both participants in the public debate and respondents from the general population were simultaneously surveyed. We find large differences between the two groups of respondents in terms of gender, age, and education, as well as in their spatial preferences for wind farm locations. Using an entropy balancing approach, we reject the hypothesis that these differences in spatial preferences are due to composition effects. These findings underscore the need for policymakers to exercise caution when interpreting the outcomes of public debates. |
| Keywords: | Democracy, Spatial Preferences, Offshore Wind Energy, Discrete Choice Experiment, Entropy Balancing, Participatory |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05473955 |
| By: | Arinc, Ibrahim Said (SOCAR Türkiye) |
| Abstract: | This article examines critical mineral supply chains through a geo-economic and governance-oriented lens, drawing on Global Value Chain (GVC) theory and insights from asymmetric interdependence. It argues that supply vulnerabilities extend beyond geological endowment and extraction, increasingly reflecting coordination failures across transnational value chains, particularly at midstream and downstream stages involving refining, processing, logistics, certification, and regulatory alignment. While existing scholarship has largely treated hydrocarbon corridors and critical mineral supply risks as separate domains, limited attention has been paid to corridor-based governance arrangements capable of coordinating extraction, transit, processing, and market access across Eurasia. The study adopts a qualitative, policy-oriented methodology combining conceptual analysis, review of institutional and policy frameworks, and an embedded case study of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC). The SGC serves as an institutional reference to examine how geographically connected actors, including Central Asian producers, Azerbaijan, Türkiye, and European markets, have managed asymmetric interdependence through long-term cooperation, intergovernmental frameworks, and coordinated state and commercial participation. Building on these insights, the article develops a corridor-based governance perspective for Eurasian critical mineral supply chains. It conceptualizes the Eurasian Critical Minerals Corridor not as an existing institutional structure, but as an analytical framework for examining how variable-geometry cooperation can structure interdependence, reduce exposure to value-chain vulnerabilities, and support more resilient supply arrangements. In doing so, the article advances a governance-centered interpretation of critical mineral supply chains and demonstrates how institutional lessons from energy corridors can inform policy debates on critical mineral security and the political economy of the energy transition. |
| Date: | 2026–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:exjsp_v1 |
| By: | Marc Aliana (Department of Finance and Accounting, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Maria Teresa Balaguer-Coll (Department of Finance and Accounting, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain); Diego Prior (Department of Business, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain); Emili Tortosa-Ausina (IVIE, Valencia and IIDL and Department of Economics, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines eco-productivity convergence across European Union regions while explicitly incorporating institutional quality within a multilevel governance framework. Using a panel of 216 NUTS-2 regions over the period 2010–2023, we analyse whether regions converge in their ability to generate economic output while limiting environmental pressures, and how this process is shaped by both national and regional Quality of Government (QoG). Ecoproductivity is measured using a nonparametric frontier approach based on Data Envelopment Analysis, with labour and capital as inputs, GDP as a desirable output, and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, transformed into an outputoriented ‘GHG savings’ indicator. The results show that average eco-productivity levels are around 8% higher when QoG is accounted for, cross-regional dispersion is considerably lower, and β-convergence is consistently stronger and statistically significant across all subperiods. Overall, eco-productivity convergence is associated with QoG, suggesting that sustainable regional catch-up is more likely where green investment is matched by improvements in institutional quality. |
| Keywords: | Cohesion Policy; Eco-productivity convergence; Multilevel governance; Quality of Government. |
| JEL: | C14 C61 O18 Q56 R11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2026/05 |
| By: | Christos Genakos; Themistoklis Kampouris |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the "right" geographic definition of relevant markets by analyzing how excise tax pass-through varies with local competition in the retail gasoline market of a large metropolitan city. Using a natural experiment from three unanticipated and exogenous fuel tax hikes and detailed station-level price data, we show that average pass-through is invariant to the number of nearby competitors across various geographic definitions. This contrasts with theoretical predictions and prior island-based evidence, suggesting that the entire metropolitan area functions as a single market. Our findings challenge standard isodistance- or isochrone-based market delineations used in academic research and competition policy. |
| Keywords: | geographic market definition, gasoline market, competition, pass-through, market structure |
| Date: | 2026–02–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2149 |
| By: | Daniel Kim (University of Waterloo [Waterloo]); Sébastien Pouget (TSM - Toulouse School of Management Research - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - TSM - Toulouse School of Management - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse, TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Comue de Toulouse - Communauté d'universités et établissements de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | We empirically study whether carbon emissions affect firms' cost of capital raised on conventional bond markets. We find that firms with higher carbon emissions face higher spreads in the secondary market but not in the primary market. We show that this gap is related to uncertainty about climate concerns that affects differently primary and secondary market. This gap is also affected by the reputation of underwriting dealers: high reputation promotes the incorporation of climate concerns into bond yields. Our findings imply that, on average, carbon emissions do not affect the cost of capital in bond markets, thereby reducing firms' financial incentives for decarbonization. |
| Keywords: | Climate finance, Carbon premium, Bond markets, Green investors, Underwriting dealers |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05470890 |
| By: | Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Sikow-Magny, Catharina (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | Cross-border interconnection (IC) projects are central to achieving the European Union’s goals of energy market integration, system resilience, and security of supply. However, their implementation often encounters financial and policy challenges stemming from uneven distribution of costs and benefits across the countries and exacerbated jurisdictional differences and information asymmetry. This paper proposes an approach that reorients the current practice of CBCA policy to one that embeds economic theory that informs the project assessment and negotiation process. We present a conceptual framework that integrates bargaining theory and incentive design into the Cross-Border Cost Allocation (CBCA). It considers the joint interests of project promoters, National Regulatory Authorities (NRAs), and the European Commission (EC) when assessing investments and co-funding from the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF). A new role for CEF, not as an ex-post subsidy, but as a directed policy instrument enables elicitation of true values of benefits and incentive-compatible cost allocation that aligns national and EU objectives. We conclude with policy recommendations for enabling implementation of cross-border investments in the EU’s evolving energy grid policy. |
| Keywords: | Electricity grid; Cross-border investment; Cost allocation; Information asymmetry; Energy policy |
| JEL: | C70 D00 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2026–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2026_004 |
| By: | Diengdoh, Vishesh Leon (Meghalaya Climate Change Centre) |
| Abstract: | Multi-level governance (MLG) emphasises the importance of subnational institutions and actors in climate governance. From an MLG perspective, state legislatures and legislators in India represent potentially important but empirically underexamined sites of climate governance, given their roles in articulating local concerns, exercising policy oversight, and holding executive actors accountable. This study provides the first systematic synthesis of climate-related legislative discourse in India by examining over three decades (1993–2025) of legislative questions from the Meghalaya Legislative Assembly. Using a public corpus of 9, 522 questions retrieved from the National eVidhan Application (NeVA) portal, the study applies an iteratively developed keyword-based annotation approach to distinguish between explicit climate discourse and implicit climate-relevant engagement. The findings show that explicit references to climate change are exceedingly rare, accounting for 0.06% of all legislative questions, consistent with the limited formal integration of state legislatures within India’s climate governance framework. In contrast, legislators frequently engage with climate-relevant sectors such as coal, flood, forests, and irrigation, framing these issues primarily through administrative and financial concerns rather than through climate change narratives. This pattern highlights the unrealised potential of subnational legislatures as sites of climate governance. By focusing on legislative attention and discourse, this study contributes new empirical evidence on subnational climate governance in the Global South and highlights opportunities for mainstreaming climate-change discourse within legislative processes. |
| Date: | 2026–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5ncpt_v1 |
| By: | Rode, Johannes; Römer, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Erneuerbare Energien sind inzwischen die Basis der Stromerzeugung in Deutschland. Allein Wind und Sonne lagen im letzten Jahr bei über 45% des verbrauchten Stroms. Durch gegenläufige saisonale und tageszeitliche Schwankungen haben die beiden erneuerbaren Energiequellen hohes Synergiepotenzial. In den letzten drei Jahren gab es jedoch im Schnitt jeweils rund 15 Tage an denen ungünstige Bedingungen für Wind und Sonne zusammenfielen. An diesen Tagen können Reservekapazitäten und Stromimporte den Strombedarf in Deutschland decken. Die Analyse beleuchtet die Entwicklung in den letzten Jahren und zeigt verschiedene Maßnahmen für den Erhalt der Versorgungssicherheit angesichts des geplanten Ausstiegs aus der Kohleverstromung. Hierzu gehören die Flexibilisierung der Nachfrage, eine Angebotsglättung durch Batteriespeicher, eine Stärkung des europäischen Stromhandels sowie wasserstofffähige Gaskraftwerke. |
| Date: | 2026–01–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:159314 |
| By: | Zhonghui Luo; Kenji TAKEUCHI |
| Abstract: | This study examines how Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) shapes disparities in air pollution exposure across individuals with different levels of education. Using a shift–share instrumental variable based on world import demand to predict provincial EPU fluctuations, we construct an individual-level panel dataset linking personal exposure to EPU and SO2 concentration across six survey waves from 2000 to 2015. The results indicate that a 1% increase in the EPU index leads to an average rise of approximately 1.15μg/m3 in SO2 exposure among individuals without a high school degree, relative to those with one. Mechanism analyses suggest that this effect operates mainly through two channels:changes in government regulatory behavior and in firm-level emission decisions. |
| Keywords: | Economic Policy Uncertainty; Environmental Inequality; Government Regulation; Firm Emission Decisions |
| JEL: | D63 D81 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-25-011 |
| By: | Sebastian Ritter (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Vicente Royuela (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | As the EU races to meet its 2030 emissions reduction target, regional disparities in transition progress threaten to leave some territories behind. We introduce the Regional Green Transition Performance Index (RGTP), a novel composite measure capturing progress across seven pillars (environmental; energy; circular economy and waste; sustainable development; just transition; innovation and policy; and transport and mobility) for 232 European NUTS2 regions over 14 years. Drawing on 31 indicators, we map spatial patterns and dynamic processes. Furthermore, we argue that the green transition acts as a structural force whose potential effects on regional development can be expressed along two axes: vulnerability and opportunity. We propose an alternative measure of Regional Green Transition Opportunity index (RGTO) which we combine with the existent Regional Green Transition Vulnerability index (RGTV) of RodríguezPose & Bartalucci (2024) to construct a simple 2×2 typology of regions. We translate this evidence into a policy playbook: pair risk-mitigation with opportunity-creation and embed diffusion mechanisms so gains propagate beyond individual regions. The paper contributes an open dataset, a transparent methodology to separate performance, opportunities, and vulnerabilities which responds to the EU’s performance-based policy agenda by offering a region-level monitoring tool that complements cohesion instruments (ERDF/CF/JTF/ESF+) and flags where to reduce vulnerabilities while mobilizing opportunities in the green transition. |
| Keywords: | green transition; European Union; regional inequality; green transition index. JEL classification: C43; Q56; R11; R12 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202601 |
| By: | Konstantinos Gavriilidis; Diego R. Känzig; Ramya Raghavan; James H. Stock |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel measure of climate policy uncertainty based on newspaper coverage. Our index spikes during key U.S. climate policy events—including presidential announcements on international agreements, congressional debates, and regulatory disputes—and shows a recent upward trend. Using an instrument for plausibly exogenous uncertainty shifts, we find that higher climate policy uncertainty decreases output and emissions while raising commodity and consumer prices, acting as supply rather than demand shocks. Faced with this trade-off, monetary policy does not accommodate climate policy uncertainty shocks, shaping their transmission. Firm-level analyses show stronger declines in investment and R&D when firms have higher climate change exposure. |
| JEL: | D80 E66 H23 L50 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34762 |
| By: | Charles I. Jones |
| Abstract: | Artificial intelligence (A.I.) will likely be the most important technology we have ever developed. Technologies such as electricity, semiconductors, and the internet have been transformative, reshaping economic activity and dramatically increasing living standards throughout the world. In some sense, artificial intelligence is simply the latest of these general purpose technologies and at a minimum should continue the economic transformation that has been ongoing for the past century. However, the case can certainly be made that this time is different. Automating intelligence itself arguably has broader effects than electricity or semiconductors. What if machines—A.I. for cognitive tasks and A.I. plus advanced robots for physical tasks—can perform every task a human can do but more cheaply? What does economics have to say about this possibility, and what might our economic future look like? |
| JEL: | O3 O4 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34779 |