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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Paul Malliet (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Anissa Saumtally (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | The energy crisis that struck Europe in 2021 as the world bounced back from COVID, and amplified by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, led to a sharp increase in energy prices, particularly gas prices. In this context, European nations implemented emergency measures to protect households' purchasing power and the competitiveness of their businesses. France chose to mitigate energy price rises by implementing a price cap. Making use of a computable general equilibrium model, we explicitly simulate the divergent trajectories of energy prices with and without this price cap. Our results show that the budgetary cost of this measure was lower than initially expected, and while the macroeconomic impact was also relatively small, it did none‑ theless preserve household purchasing power. |
| Abstract: | La crise énergétique qui a frappé l'Europe en 2021, dans un contexte de reprise mondiale post-Covid et amplifiée par l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie, s'est matérialisée par une forte hausse des prix de l'énergie, celui du gaz en tête. Dans ce contexte, les pays européens ont mis en place des mesures d'urgence pour préserver le pouvoir d'achat des ménages et la compétitivité de leurs entreprises. La France a choisi de limiter la hausse des prix de l'énergie en mettant en place un bouclier tarifaire. À l'aide d'un modèle d'équilibre général calculable, nous simulons explicitement des trajectoires de prix de l'énergie avec et sans bouclier tarifaire. Nos résultats montrent un coût budgétaire plus faible que celui initialement anticipé avec un effet macroéconomique relativement faible, mais qui aura néanmoins préservé le pouvoir d'achat des ménages. |
| Keywords: | energy crisis, energy price cap, public policy evaluation, macroeconomics, évaluation des politiques publiques, bouclier tarifaire, Crise énergétique, Macroéconomie |
| Date: | 2025–12–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05415742 |
| By: | Chyong, C. K.; Newbery, D. |
| Abstract: | High Variable Renewable Electricity (VRE) penetration inevitably causes curtailment (shedding), normally measured by average curtailment. Marginal curtailment (mc, the fraction of potential output curtailed by the last MW) can be many times higher, raising the long-run marginal cost of investment, proportional to 1/(1-mc). A unit commitment and efficient dispatch model of Britain divided into seven zones by transmission constraints in 2030 demonstrates that these constraints considerably increase mc compared to no congestion despite the considerable expansion of transmission, interconnectors and storage that mitigate curtailment. Current auction design favours levelised costs ignoring curtailment, but long-run marginal costs may be 90% higher, arguing for careful locational planning. |
| Keywords: | Variable Renewable Electricity, Marginal Curtailment, Average Curtailment, Levelised Cost of Electricity, VRE Support Design |
| JEL: | L94 Q28 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2581 |
| By: | Guanyu Lu (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050.); Hajime Katayama (Faculty of Commerce, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, in the Tokyo, 169-8050.); Toshi H. Arimura (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050.); Shohei Morimura (Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050.); Tomoichi Ishiwatari (iGRID SOLUTIONS Inc., 3-7-4 Kojimachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-0083.); Tetsu Iwasaki (iGRID SOLUTIONS Inc., 3-7-4 Kojimachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-0083.) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of “Enudge, †an artificial intelligence (AI) energy management system (EMS), on electricity consumption in the retail sector. As retail installations increasingly contribute to nonindustrial CO₂ emissions, conventional EMSs frequently fail to manage the complex and variable energy demands in these settings. By leveraging a difference-in-differences framework on store-level data from over 1, 700 retail stores in Japan between November 2018 and December 2023, this study finds that installation of AI EMS-Enudge reduces electricity consumption by an average of 1.9%. However, this reduction effect declines over time, with electricity savings diminishing within five to ten months. This decay effect is consistent with the decrease in user interaction with the recommendations provided by AI, suggesting that user engagement may play a crucial role in reducing electricity consumption. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the system’s performance varies across retail establishments and seasonal contexts. Moreover, a cost-benefit analysis aimed at exploring break-even tariffs and implied abatement costs highlights that the installation of an AI EMS can contribute to cost savings, especially under high tariffs and higher-carbon grids. |
| Keywords: | Artificial intelligence energy management system, electricity consumption, difference in differences, energy savings |
| JEL: | Q41 Q48 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:was:dpaper:2502 |
| By: | Soumoy, L.; Abada, I.; Ehrenmann, A.; Massol, O. |
| Abstract: | The energy transition requires massive and costly investments in low-carbon power generation and storage. The private sector, however, is increasingly reluctant to undertake such investments. One of the main reasons is that electricity markets are incomplete: risk-averse investors are facing growing risk factors, but are unable to exchange or mitigate these risks beyond a few years. Hybrid market designs, by adding Capacity Remuneration Mechanisms, Contracts for Difference (CfDs), Power Purchase Agreements, and other financial instruments to the energy spot market, allow a better risk allocation between market agents, and have been shown to efficiently foster investment in new generators. Few studies have, however, quantified their efficiency in future systems with a high penetration of both renewable and storage technologies. The present paper tries to fill this research gap. We first propose to generalize the concept of Financial CfDs introduced in the literature to all assets, including storage and consumption assets, into what we define as Financial Twins: financial contracts that fully replicate physical asset’s profits. We then show that a hybrid market design with one Financial Twin per technology is optimal in a power economy: it allows to reach the first best welfare, risk allocation, and investment decisions. To do so, we develop a two-stage stochastic partial equilibrium model of a power system in which agents invest in the first stage in an uncertain environment before trading electricity in the spot market in the second stage. After formulating the model and deriving some useful properties of Financial Twins, we apply the model to the Spanish electricity market to quantify the combined impacts of various Financial Twins in a real-world situation. We also propose and successfully apply a methodology to rank their added value by computing their Shapley values. Our findings indicate that Financial Twins for generators and demand have a far higher value than those for storage. Since over-the-counter battery contracts can already hedge most of a project’s lifetime, policy makers should thus focus on ensuring adequate hedging for more critical technologies through well-designed Financial Twins. |
| Keywords: | Capacity Expansion, Risk Aversion, Risk Trading, Complete or Incomplete Risk Market, Coherent Risk Measure, Financial Twins |
| JEL: | D81 C72 C73 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2582 |
| By: | John A Spray; Sneha D Thube; Alice Tianbo Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the economic effects of the global energy transition and the large uncertainty surrounding future fossil fuel demand on countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Under the paper’s baseline, coal demand is expected to shrink by 15 percent by 2035, although depending on global policy ambition and technological uptake, the decline could be as large as 45 percent. Model simulations indicate that one-third of global coal capital stock and one-quarter of Asia-Pacific coal capital stock could become stranded if the speed of the transition is underestimated. By contrast, global natural gas faces both upside and downside risks: when energy policy targets coal alone, natural gas extraction benefits, prompting an 18 percent rise in capital stock, whereas a fuel-agnostic transition would reduce gas capital stock by 16 percent. Impacts differ across countries, with high-cost coal exporters facing early losses, low-cost producers potentially gaining market share, and some gas exporters benefiting under select scenarios. At the same time, new growth opportunities will emerge for countries with strong critical mineral endowments and green energy potential. |
| Keywords: | energy transition scenarios; IMF-ENV model; stranded assets; Asia-pacific countries |
| Date: | 2026–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/001 |
| By: | Dreoni Ilda (European Commission - JRC); Klenert David (European Commission - JRC); Amores Antonio F (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the distribution of emissions and other environmental pressures embedded in house-hold consumption across the EU. For this purpose, we extend the microsimulation model EUROMOD with environmental data from an input-output database to estimate environmental footprints em-bedded in household consumption associated with emissions like nitrogen and particulate matter, as well as other environmental pressures, like water and energy footprints. We then assess the distri-bution of these environmental footprints across different household characteristics like income, household type, urban density and others. We go into further detail by distinguishing environmental pressures by the stage along the value chain at which they occur, as well as by the consumption group they are associated with and by region. Our main finding is that all environmental pressures increase with income, but the extent to which they increase depends crucially on the consumption category, the specific environmental pressure, households’ further socio-economic characteristics and other factors. We argue that accounting for these factors is key for designing fair and effective environmental policy. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202506 |
| By: | Kyriaki Tselika (Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration - Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, SINTEF Energy Research); Maria Tselika (Rennes SB - Rennes School of Business); Elias Demetriades (Audencia Business School) |
| Keywords: | Policy uncertainty, Econometric methods, Market integration, Energy transition, Technological development |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05365937 |
| By: | Lu, Qinan; Karwowski, Nicole; Liu, Pengfei; Wu, Karin |
| Abstract: | As renewable energy development accelerates, wind turbines are increasingly being installed on agricultural land, raising questions about their effects on crop production. This paper investigates the impact of wind turbine installations on agricultural productivity using a high-resolution dataset that combines parcel-level corn yield data with detailed information on wind turbine locations and weather characteristics. Using Difference-in-differences approach to address potential endogeneity, we find that parcels within an 8-kilometer radius of wind turbines experienced, on average, a 1% increase in corn yield after installation. These results suggest that localized microclimatic changes induced by turbines may improve growing conditions. Our findings highlight an overlooked positive externality of renewable energy infrastructure and underscore the importance of incorporating land-use interactions into energy policy and planning. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360609 |
| By: | Rong, Rong; Crago, Christine L.; Wang, Rui |
| Abstract: | Individuals making a decision about whether to adopt rooftop solar PV technology face significant financial risk, including technology underperformance, unexpected maintenance and repairs, and changes in policy regarding solar PV incentives. The presence of risk as a factor in the adoption decision suggests that individuals with a higher level of risk tolerance are more likely to adopt the technology than those who are risk averse. In addition, early adopters are also more likely to be risk-tolerant than late adopters. In this paper, we use a lab-in-the-field experiment to elicit individual risk preferences from a subject pool of solar PV adopters and non-adopters, and use this data to examine the effect of risk preference on the decision to adopt solar PV. Our findings confirm our hypothesis that risk preference plays a crucial role in determining solar PV adoption status and the timing of adoption. Our findings suggest that reducing risk in the solar market through policy or through risk-mitigating insurance products can help to broaden solar PV adoption among households. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361167 |
| By: | Timothy Weber; Cheng Cheng; Harry Thawley; Kylie Catchpole; Andrew Blakers; Bin Lu; Jennifer Zhao; Anna Nadolny |
| Abstract: | Fossil gas is sometimes presented as an enabler of variable solar and wind generation beyond 2050, despite being a primary source of greenhouse gas emissions from methane leakage and combustion. We find that balancing solar and wind generation with pumped hydro energy storage eliminates the need for fossil gas without incurring a cost penalty. However, many existing long-term electricity system plans are biased to rely on fossil gas due to using temporal aggregation methods that either heavily constrain storage cycling behaviour or lose track of the state-of-charge, failing to consider the potential of low-cost long-duration off-river pumped hydro, and ignoring the broad suite of near-optimal energy transition pathways. We show that a temporal aggregation method based on 'segmentation' (fitted chronology) closely resembles the full-series optimisation, captures long-duration storage behaviour (48- and 160-hour durations), and finds a near-optimal 100% renewable electricity solution. We develop a new electricity system model to rapidly evaluate millions of other near-optimal solutions, stressing the importance of modelling pumped hydro sites with a low energy volume cost ( |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.20286 |
| By: | Martin Dhaussy; Nandeeta Neerunjun; Hubert Stahn |
| Abstract: | The expansion of intermittent electricity increases supply variability and requires greater flexibility from consumers. This results in welfare losses for these agents, which can nevertheless be mitigated by energy storage. Our model analyzes these welfare consequences in the context of short-term variability in renewable energy given fixed dispatchable and storage capacities. We explore an optimal control problem that determines a welfare-maximizing electricity consumption path by adjusting dispatchable and stored energy throughout the short-term production cycle of renewables. This optimization problem identifies three regimes (no storage and active storage, with or without capacity constraints) and provides the associated consumer welfare over this cycle. Under all three regimes, a certain degree of consumer flexibility is part of the optimal solution and entails welfare losses. Active storage reduces these losses but cannot eliminate them completely due to the energy conversion losses induced by this activity. However, when storage capacity is constrained, a proactive adjustment of this capacity can offset the losses. |
| Keywords: | Intermittent Renewable, Energy Storage, Electricity Consumption, Welfare Analysis, Optimal Control |
| JEL: | D61 Q40 Q42 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gbl:wpaper:2026-01 |
| By: | Beiser-Mcgrath, Liam |
| Abstract: | Understanding public support for energy policy is crucial for designing feasible interventions to mitigate climate change and reach net-zero goals. This is particularly the case given the increased salience surrounding energy policy in light of the major disruptions to global energy markets generated by the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Combining framing and conjoint experiments, I examine how framing and policy design shape public support for energy policy responses to this crisis in the UK. Results show that the public has strong preferences over specific policy features, supporting investment in renewables, reductions of energy imports from Russia and non-democracies, and policies that shield vulnerable groups. While security framing increases support for energy policy, its effect is smaller than that of policy design, and it has little impact on policy design preferences overall. The findings suggest that substantive policy designs remain crucial for generating public acceptance of energy policy, even in times of crisis. |
| Keywords: | energy crisis; energy policy; public opinion; green transition; climate change |
| JEL: | Q40 Q50 |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126124 |
| By: | Benjamin Trouve |
| Abstract: | Reaching global net-zero by 2050 requires rapidly scaling low-carbon hydrogen, but deployment is hindered by market uncertainty, high capital costs, and weak supply-demand coordination. This paper examines whether liberalizing international hydrogen and ammonia trade can accelerate deployment and how such policies interact with technological innovation. We develop a hybrid framework combining a global TIMES-based energy-system model (KiNESYS-IFPEN) with a stochastic logistic diffusion model calibrated to historical renewable energy growth under imperfect expectations. We find that trade liberalization alone has limited global impact, and mainly reallocates production geographically: the Middle East, North America, Latin America, and China expand as exporters, while Asia Pacific, Europe and Africa become structural importers. Innovation-driven electrolyzer cost reductions raise significantly global deployment success shifting production toward electrolysis. When policies are combined, innovation dominates, while trade openness reinforces regional specialization. These results underscore the central role of technological progress, credible expectations, and the trade-off between cost-efficient specialization and hydrogen supply security. |
| Keywords: | Hydrogen, Trade Policies, Technology diffusion, TIMES-Markal model. |
| JEL: | Q55 Q43 Q56 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-1 |
| By: | Mario Forni; Alessandro Franconi; Luca Gambetti; Luca Sala |
| Abstract: | We investigate the asymmetric transmission of oil supply news shocks to the U.S. economy using a nonlinear Proxy-SVAR framework. Building on the methodology of Debortoli et al. (2023), we identify exogenous oil supply news shocks using high-frequency surprises in oil futures prices around OPEC announcements (Känzig, 2021). Our results reveal strong evidence of asymmetries: a positive oil supply news shock, which raises oil prices, produces a large and persistent contraction in real activity and only a modest and transitory increase in prices. Conversely, a negative shock that reduces oil prices has small real effects but triggers a sizeable and persistent decline in inflation. We rationalize these asymmetric effects through the behavior of uncertainty. We show that both positive and negative shocks increase financial uncertainty and the excess bond premium, leading to higher risk premia and delaying investment decisions through “real option” effects. This uncertainty channel amplifies the contractionary impact of positive shocks while dampening the expansionary effects of negative shocks on output, with the opposite pattern observed for prices. We find little evidence of an asymmetric response of monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Oil Supply News, Nonlinear Proxy-SVAR, Asymmetry |
| JEL: | C32 E31 E32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1020 |
| By: | Estiven Ndendani (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | As much as the wind brings! Understanding the tax on offshore wind turbines in France Context: -Wind energy (wind power), a renewable energy source that guarantees the energy transition. -15 wind farm projects on the French coast. -40 gigawatts of electricity expected by 2050. 50% 35% 5% 10% |
| Abstract: | Autant rapporte le vent ! Comprendre la taxe sur les éoliennes en mer de France Contexte: -L'énergie du vent (éolien), une énergie renouvelable garante de la transition énergétique. -15 projets de parcs éoliens sur le littoral Français. -40 gigawatts d'électricité attendus d'ici 2050. 50% 35% 5% 10% |
| Keywords: | Parcs éoliens en mer, taxe sur les éoliennes en mer, redistribution territoriale |
| Date: | 2025–04–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05416949 |
| By: | Matthias Burgert (SWISS NATIONAL BANK); Matthieu Darracq Pariès (EUROPEAN CENTAL BANK); Luigi Durand (BANK OF CHILE); Mario González (CENTRAL BANK OF CHILE); Romanos Priftis (EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK); Oke Röhe (DEUTSCHE BUNDESBANK); Matthias Rottner (BIS AND DEUTSCHE BUNDESBANK); Edgar Silgado-Gómez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Nikolai Stähler (DEUTSCHE BUNDESBANK); Janos Varga (EUROPEAN COMMISSION) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a novel model comparison to examine the challenges for monetary policy posed by changes in carbon-intensive energy prices. The environmental monetary models employed have a detailed multi-sector structure. The comparison assesses the effects of both a temporary and a permanent energy price increase, with a particular focus on the euro area and the United States. The temporary and permanent price shocks are both inflationary. However, the inflationary impact of the permanent shock depends on the underlying model assumptions and monetary policy response. In addition, the analysis establishes that these models share significant commonalities in their quantitative and qualitative results, while also revealing cross-country differences. |
| Keywords: | climate change, monetary policy, multi-sector models, model comparison, DSGE models |
| JEL: | C54 E52 H23 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2550 |
| By: | Yeung, Theodora; Tlhotlhalemaje, Lekha; Roman, Camilla; Rastogi, Archi; Prowse, Martin; Norrington-Davies, Gemma; Makowska, Agata; Macquarie, Rob; Lieuw-Kie-Song, Maikel; Kim, Yeonji; Horikoshi, Daisuke; Danaa, Zephaniah; Cameron, Catherine |
| Abstract: | Just transition describes the transformation towards greener, more inclusive, and more resilient economies and societies. This realist review provides a rigorous summary of global evidence on interventions targeting outcomes contributing towards a just transition in developing countries, spanning energy, agriculture and food, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. We found common enablers for just transition interventions across all or most sectors, including robust funding and financing mechanisms, strong alignment with needs and priorities, political will and ownership, social dialogue and stakeholder engagement. Hard and soft enablers differed across sectors. We also found common barriers to successful just transition across all sectors, including bureaucratic and legal barriers, exclusion and unequal distribution of benefits. |
| Keywords: | agriculture and food; ecosystem services; energy; infrastructure; just transition; realist review |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–01–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130988 |
| By: | Parise, Gianpaolo (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Rubin, Mirco |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:6a84e0f0-703b-4509-bd74-e7e65ff5ad26 |
| By: | Qi He; Chunyu Qu |
| Abstract: | Rising AI electricity demand and persistent landfill methane emissions constitute coupled constraints on U.S. digital infrastructure and decarbonization. While China has achieved a rapid 'de-landfilling' transition through centralized coordination, the U.S. remains structurally 'locked in' to landfilling due to fragmented governance and carbon accounting incentives. This paper proposes a modular legacy landfill remediation framework to address these dual challenges within U.S. institutional constraints. By treating legacy sites as stock resources, the proposed system integrates excavation, screening, and behind-the-meter combined heat and power (CHP) to transform environmental liabilities into resilience assets. A system analysis of a representative AI corridor demonstrates that such modules can mitigate site-level methane by 60-70% and recover urban land, while supplying approximately 20 MW of firm, islandable power. Although contributing only approximately 5% of a hyperscale data center's bulk load, it provides critical microgrid resilience and black-start capability. We conclude that remediation-oriented waste-to-energy should be valued not as a substitute for bulk renewables, but as a strategic control volume for buffering critical loads against grid volatility while resolving long-term environmental liabilities. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.19202 |
| By: | Andrea Bastianin (Department of Economics, Management, and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Luca Rossini (Department of Economics, Management, and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Lorenzo Tonni (Department of Economics, Management, and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a real-time forecasting framework for monthly real prices of four key industrial metals – aluminum, copper, nickel, and zinc – whose demand is rising due to their widespread use in manufacturing and low-carbon technologies. To replicate the information set available to forecasters in real time, we construct a new dataset combining daily financial variables with first-release macroeconomic indicators and use nowcasting techniques to address publication lags. Within this real-time environment, we evaluate the predictive accuracy of a broad set of univariate, multivariate, and factor-augmented models, comparing their performance with two industry benchmarks: survey expectations and futures-spot spread models. Results show that although short-run metal price movements remain difficult to predict, medium-term horizons display substantial forecastability. Indicators of manufacturing activity tied to primary metals — such as new orders and capacity utilization — significantly improve forecasting accuracy for aluminum and copper, with more moderate gains for zinc and limited improvements for nickel. Futures and survey forecasts generally underperform the real-time econometric models. These findings highlight the value of incorporating timely macroeconomic information into forecasting frameworks for industrial metal markets. |
| Keywords: | First-Release Data, Energy Transition, Forecasting, Metals, Critical Raw materials |
| JEL: | C32 Q02 Q41 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.34 |
| By: | Minwoo Hyun |
| Abstract: | Using matched employer-employee data covering 1.35 million US workers separated from the fossil fuel extraction industry between 1999 and 2019, I estimate how local fossil fuel labor demand shocks affect employment and earnings. Employment probabilities fall markedly after exposure, and earnings decline gradually over the first seven years with only partial recovery by ten years since exposure to the shocks. Workers who remain in the fossil fuel sector, disproportionately men in sector-specific roles, experience nearly twice the earnings losses of those who switch sectors, possibly due to limited occupational mobility. Among non-switchers, losses are larger in labor markets with high employer concentration, indicating that scarce outside options translate into lower reemployment wages and weaker bargaining positions. Geographic movers fare worse than stayers, reflecting negative selection (younger, lower-earning) and relocation to metropolitan areas where fossil fuel or low-skilled service sectors remain highly concentrated, leaving monopsony power intact. |
| JEL: | Q32 R11 J31 J60 J42 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-76 |
| By: | Zarrilli Joaquín; Porto Natalia; De la Vega Pablo; García Carolina Inés |
| Abstract: | Economies around the world are simultaneously undergoing two profound changes: the 'green' (sustainability-focused) transition and the 'automation’ (digital-focused) transition. This dual or ‘twin’ transition has significant implications for the tourism industry, which is a crucial source of employment for many countries. This paper explores the potential for transitions to green and digital jobs in the tourism industry. We analyse household survey data for the seven largest economies of Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Uruguay) for the period 2011-2024. Our main results show that the tourism sector in Latin America has high potential to reallocate workers from brown to green jobs, thereby reducing the adjustment costs of decarbonization. This capacity is particularly pronounced in Mexico and Ecuador, and is especially strong among younger cohorts, men, and workers with lower levels of formal education. |
| JEL: | E20 Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4846 |
| By: | Zaman, Azaz; Miao, Ruiqing; Khanna, Madhu |
| Abstract: | We examine the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), market deregulation, and political polarization on the utility-scale solar electricity generation in the United States. Using state-level data from 2000 to 2023 and a negative binomial fixed effects model, we find a significant negative relationship between EPU and annual solar electricity generation. On average, a one-unit increase in the EPU index is associated with a 716.51 megawatt-hours (0.14%) decline in expected solar electricity generation annually, likely due to investor risk aversion. While existing studies are on the national level, this study is the first one documenting the impact of EPU at the state-level. Conversely, states with a 1% higher percentage of voters for the Democratic Senate nominees is associated with a 29, 990.92 megawatt-hours (5.86%) higher solar electricity generation annually, reflecting the party's strong support for renewable energy. Finally, deregulated electricity markets are linked to a 211, 778.91 megawatt-hours (41.38%) increase in annual solar electricity generation compared to regulated markets. Based on these findings, we suggest that policymakers should prioritize reducing policy uncertainty, foster bipartisan support, and encourage market deregulation to boost investments in utility-scale solar electricity generation. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361210 |
| By: | Suparna Biswas; Rituparna Sen |
| Abstract: | Historically, financial risk management has mostly addressed risk factors that arise from the financial environment. Climate risks present a novel and significant challenge for companies and financial markets. Investors aiming for avoidance of firms with high carbon footprints require suitable risk measures and portfolio management strategies. This paper presents the construction of decarbonized indices for tracking the S \& P-500 index of the U.S. stock market, as well as the Indian index NIFTY-50, employing two distinct methodologies and study their performances. These decarbonized indices optimize the portfolio weights by minimizing the mean-VaR and mean-ES and seek to reduce the risk of significant financial losses while still pursuing decarbonization goals. Investors can thereby find a balance between financial performance and environmental responsibilities. Ensuring transparency in the development of these indices will encourage the excluded and under-weighted asset companies to lower their carbon footprints through appropriate action plans. For long-term passive investors, these indices may present a more favourable option than green stocks. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.21092 |
| By: | Ingvil Gaarder; Morten Grindaker; Tom G. Meling; Magne Mogstad |
| Abstract: | We test for and measure green waste: the misallocation of public subsidies for green investment projects. Our context is a major Norwegian program for green investment subsidies. We develop a model of subsidy allocation and apply it to detailed project-level data on carbon emissions and subsidy amounts for both marginal and inframarginal projects. We find that decision-makers could have achieved the same level of emission reductions at less than half the cost. To isolate the sources of this green waste, we use data on both ex-ante expected and ex-post realized emission reductions for each project. We find that decision-makers are able ex-ante to identify the projects with the highest ex-post emission reductions but unwilling to select them. |
| JEL: | D61 H23 Q48 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34649 |
| By: | Gutierrez-Lythgoe, Antonio; Molina, Jose Alberto |
| Abstract: | The transport sector remains one of the main contributors to global GHG emissions, making the shift toward more sustainable mobility a key component of climate-mitigation strategies. While previous research has emphasized the role of infrastructure, technology, and behavioral change, less is known about how public attention toward sustainable transport evolves and diffuses across countries. This paper uses Google Trends data as a high-frequency indicator of public interest in sustainable mobility for 38 OECD countries from 2004 to 2025. To ensure comparability across time and space, we propose the construction of log-ratios between sustainable mobility and conventional car-related searches so that the measure is robust to changes in Google’s user base. We apply the Phillips and Sul convergence framework to test whether attention levels follow common long-run trajectories. Results show strong convergence in electric-vehicle attention, while hybrid- and public-transport interest remain fragmented. Validation analyses confirm that Google Trends indicators correlate with subsequent electric-vehicle adoption, underscoring their value as dynamic proxies for cultural and behavioral dimensions of sustainable mobility. |
| Keywords: | sustainable mobility, Google Trends, convergence behavior, digital behavior, transportation policy |
| JEL: | C53 Q56 R41 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126877 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | At a time when ultra-fast delivery, especially same-day delivery, has become a benchmark for overconsumption, last-mile logistics exposes fundamental tensions between operational performance and environmental and social sustainability. The rapid expansion of fast fashion, fuelled by platforms such as Shein and Temu, demonstrates that speed and efficiency generate apparent gains while aggravating urban congestion, increasing carbon emissions, and intensifying pressure on delivery workers. Technological solutions, including drones, autonomous vehicles, automated hubs, and artificial intelligence, often create the illusion of sustainable progress, yet the rebound effect neutralizes individual benefits and encourages even more frequent and fragmented consumption. Conventional approaches that focus solely on optimizing flows fail to address the structural drivers of overconsumption. This position paper advocates systemic rethinking of last-mile logistics, emphasizing the integration of sobriety, social equity, and durability into operational strategies. Deconsumption practices: pooling orders, extending product lifespans, promoting second-hand goods, and accepting longer delivery times, function as concrete levers for reducing delivery density while ensuring access to essential goods. Under this perspective, the last mile becomes a political and social arena, where the very conditions for sustainable consumption and urban well-being are being actively redefined, highlighting the limits of purely technical solutions. |
| Keywords: | last-mile logistics, overconsumption, technology, ultra-fast delivery, fast fashion |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05439781 |
| By: | Ting Lan; Manasa Patnam; Mr. Frederik G Toscani; Claire Li |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how productivity dynamics and, as a consequence, potential output, are affected by energy price shocks. We do this through the lens of a model of endogenous technical change where firms adjust their investment in non-energy productivity and energy productivity in reaction to the economic environment. Higher energy prices prompt a shift in investment from enhancing non-energy (capital and labor) productivity to improving energy efficiency. The resulting gains in energy efficiency act as an important macroeconomic buffer, but cannot fully offset the adverse input price effect and the transitional cost of shifting investment away from non-energy productivity. We thus find that the change in European energy prices following the 2022 shock reduces the level of euro area potential GDP by 0.8 percent by 2027. The impact on potential growth is temporary, and will have dissipated by that time. Energy efficiency itself is projected to rise by about three percent, offering a silver lining to the crisis. We estimate that the output effect would have been around two-thirds larger had energy efficiency not cushioned the impact of the price shock. |
| Keywords: | Productivity; Energy Price; Energy Efficiency; Directed Technical Change; Innovation |
| Date: | 2026–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/003 |
| By: | Carsten Andersen; Timo Hener |
| Abstract: | Wind turbines play an important role in the green transition towards a pollutionfree generation of electricity. Yet, the deployment of new wind turbines faces increasing local and political opposition. The public discourse routinely goes beyond wind turbines’ established negative impact on house prices. However, evidence on how residents react to new turbines and whether human health and labor market outcomes are affected remains limited. We study how industrial-scale onshore wind turbines affect nearby communities in Denmark, combining geo-coded information on all wind turbines installed after 1995 with 25 years of administrative full-population data. Exploiting the staggered timing of wind turbine establishments in an event-study framework allowing for heterogeneous treatment effects, we estimate the impact on neighborhood composition at the address level, and on mental health and labor market outcomes at the individual level. We find small negative effects on the occupancy of houses nearby large turbines, indicating a decrease in attractiveness. However, we detect no meaningful impacts on mental health, productivity, or the socio-economic composition of neighborhoods. Overall, our evidence does not indicate large adverse health effects from proximity of wind turbines, but it is consistent with local disamenities. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_423 |
| By: | Poggiese Milena; Ibáñez Martín Maria; London Maria Silvia |
| Abstract: | La pobreza energética se ha convertido en un problema central en el debate sobre des-igualdad y transición energética, pero la literatura argentina sigue siendo escasa y centrada en descripciones o modelos lineales convencionales. Este trabajo aporta evidencia novedosa utilizando una base de datos propia, reciente y local de la ciudad de Bahía Blanca a partir de la Encuesta de Ingresos y Servicios de los Hogares 2024, utilizando principalmente técnicas de regresión condicional por cuantiles y comparando dos enfoques de medición: el criterio del 10% del ingreso destinado a energía y un índice multidimensional de privaciones (MEPI). Los resultados muestran que la pobreza monetaria es un determinante robusto, aunque los dos indicadores capturan dimensiones distintas de vulnerabilidad: el primero refleja restricciones de asequibilidad, mientras que el segundo expone carencias estructurales vinculadas a vivienda y equipamiento. El análisis por cuantiles revela fuertes heterogeneidades a lo largo de la distribución. Los hallazgos destacan la necesidad de políticas diferenciadas que combinen transferencias focalizadas con intervenciones estructurales en vivienda y acceso a energías limpias. |
| JEL: | O13 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4828 |
| By: | Mazen Diwani (Faculty of Social Science, Northeastern University, London (UK)); Al Mamun (Center for Policy and Economic Research (CPER), Dhaka (Bangladesch)); Sherif Hassan (M&S Research Hub) |
| Abstract: | European energy markets experienced unprecedented disruptions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, exposing long-standing structural vulnerabilities in fossil fuel–dependent systems and threatening progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7). This study provides a causal analysis of the conflict’s immediate impact on European energy markets using a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) that leverages the sharp temporal cutoff created by the invasion. Drawing on monthly data for 25 European countries from 2019–2024, we examine four core outcomes: natural gas import volumes, crude oil import volumes, Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas prices, and wholesale electricity prices. Our findings reveal significant supply-side adjustments following the conflict, with natural gas and crude oil imports exhibiting heterogeneous responses depending on pre-war Russian dependency levels. Price dynamics show pronounced but short-lived spikes in TTF gas prices, while electricity market responses are more ambiguous due to bandwidth sensitivity. The results provide empirical evidence of how European energy systems absorbed an exogenous geopolitical shock, highlighting the interplay between supply diversification, market integration, and vulnerability to price volatility. The study contributes to the literature on energy security under geopolitical stress and offers policy-relevant insights into resilience strategies needed to uphold SDG 7 targets during crises. |
| Keywords: | Russia–Ukraine Conflict; Energy Security; Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD); Geopolitical Supply Shocks; European Energy Markets; SDG 7; Sustainability; Market Resilience |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:msrwps:021995 |
| By: | Rafael Duarte Lisboa Paschoaleto (University of Göttingen); Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso (Universitat Jaume I, University of Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between female leadership and firms’ environmental performance using data on 15, 612 firms across 32 countries in Europe, Central Asia, and MENA from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. Environmental performance is measured through the Firm Environmental Performance Index (FEPI). The instrumental variable approach results show that female leadership significantly improves environmental performance and green practices such as CO₂ monitoring, environmental certifications, and energy management. A one-standard-deviation increase in female leadership raises FEPI by 11 percent, particularly in smaller and low-technology firms. Therefore, policies promoting women leadership could help to mitigate the consequences of climate change. |
| Keywords: | Gender, environment, female leadership, firm environmental performance |
| JEL: | O Q |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2026.02 |
| By: | Puig Jorge Pablo; García Thomas; Porto Alberto; Puig Julián; Rodriguez Chamuss Lourdes; Vezza Evelyn |
| Abstract: | Reversing energy subsidies poses a complex policy challenge, with distributional effects being a central concern since such subsidies are often justified as protection for the most vulnerable households. This paper analyzes the case of the Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area (AMBA) in Argentina, where, after decades of substantial residential energy subsidies, a gradual reduction process has recently begun. A distinctive feature of this reform is the introduction of targeting mechanisms that segment users primarily by self-reported income. The subsidy rollback unfolded in a highly adverse macroeconomic context—marked by currency devaluation and high inflation—which also affected income distribution beyond the tariff adjustments themselves. Using microdata and administrative records, we document that subsidies, historically pro-rich yet progressive, are now better targeted and consequently even more progressive. Both the classification of users and the subsidy amounts assigned to each group reinforced this progressive shift. Nevertheless, the difficult macroeconomic environment has made the path toward improved distributional outcomes non-linear. The Argentine experience offers valuable lessons for other countries facing similar policy challenges. |
| JEL: | H22 D31 D78 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4830 |
| By: | Johan Milleret (PACTE - Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble-UGA - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble-UGA - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Keywords: | Economics, Local, Energy justice, Value |
| Date: | 2025–03–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05404925 |
| By: | Daniele Giordino (Università Telematica Pegaso); Elisa Ballesio (UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur, UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin, GRM - Groupe de Recherche en Management - EA 4711 - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Aradhana Galgotia (Galgotias University); Laura Broccardo (UNITO - Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the growing attention and concerns surrounding climate change and the potential role of institutional investors' ownership concentration (OC) in reducing corporations' greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this article explores the relationship between various forms of institutional ownership and firms' GHG emission intensity. To do so, the authors employ an extensive dataset of 628 European‐listed corporations with observations from 2015 to 2022. This manuscript method consists of linear regression models. This study's empirical results underline the positive and significant effect financial institutions, pension funds, governments, and foreign institutional investors' OC have on companies' GHG emissions. On the other hand, the regression models present empirical evidence suggesting a negative and significant effect between cross holdings OC and firms' GHG emissions. Finally, the authors identify a negative and non‐significant relationship between "other" institutional investors and organizations' GHG emissions. These findings are robust since the authors have conducted several regression analyses with different approaches and have addressed potential endogeneity bias. The present article makes significant contributions to the scholarly literature and regulatory practice underlying the active role corporate governance and institutional investors have in supporting a carbon‐neutral future. |
| Keywords: | carbon neutrality, environmental performance, greenhouse gas emission, institutional investors, ownership concentration |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05350978 |
| By: | Flavio Contrada (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Pietro Dindo (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Alessandro Spiganti (University of Genoa) |
| Abstract: | A rapid transition to low-carbon production is essential for climate mitigation, but its economic costs and benefits are not evenly shared. This paper studies how carbon pricing affects workers of different skills when clean and dirty energy sectors differ in their skill intensity. We extend a dynamic multi-sector environmental growth model in the spirit of Golosov et al. (2014) by introducing high- and low-skill households and a production structure in which clean energy is relatively high-skill intensive and dirty energy relatively low-skill intensive. We show that a Pigouvian carbon tax decentralizes the first-best allocation by internalizing the external cost of emissions, yet it is not distributionally neutral: the induced reallocation of capital and labour toward clean production raises the skill premium and can reduce welfare for the low-skill household. Numerical simulations calibrated to the U.S. economy confirm that aggregate welfare gains coexist with significant welfare losses for low-skill households, raising concerns about the political acceptability of such policies. |
| Keywords: | climate policy, carbon tax, transition risks, inequality, labour market transitions |
| JEL: | E30 E32 E43 E51 E52 G18 Q58 H23 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2025:29 |
| By: | Manuel, Ed; Piton, Sophie; Yotzov, Ivan |
| Abstract: | How have profits behaved in the current period of sustained inflation? In part, the answer depends on how ‘profits’ are defined. Some broad measures suggest increasing profits, but conflate market and non-market sector dynamics and omit important corporate costs. This paper constructs an alternative measure of corporate profits to capture UK firm earnings in excess of all production costs. This measure has been declining since the start of 2022, consistent with evidence from historical energy shocks. This decline has not been uniform across firms, however: firms with higher market power have been better able to protect their margins; others have experienced large declines. |
| Keywords: | energy shock; inflation; mark-ups; profit margins |
| JEL: | E25 E31 L11 |
| Date: | 2024–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121997 |
| By: | Kris Ivanovski; Russell Smyth; Xibin Zhang |
| Abstract: | We examine how human capital influences energy consumption in a panel of OECD nations in the long run. We make important contributions to understanding how education affects energy consumption. First, much of the existing research on how human capital affects energy consumption, employs time series or panel data which typically span a few decades. We utilise a newly assembled long-run panel spanning 150 years, disaggregated by primary, secondary, and tertiary levels, for a core set of OECD countries. This long panel enables us to capture how the human capital–energy relationship evolved through the industrial revolution, multiple energy transitions, and major global shocks. Second, most prior studies rely on parametric models that assume constant relationships over time. Such approaches yield average effects but fail to capture how the education–energy nexus shifts in response to changes in policies, technologies, and macroeconomic conditions. To overcome this limitation, we employ both a parametric and a semi-parametric estimator, which generates time-varying elasticities. Our parametric results highlight the heterogeneous effects of education, with primary and secondary schooling associated with higher energy consumption and tertiary education linked to lower energy consumption. Semi-parametric findings show that primary and secondary education contributed strongly to energy-intensive growth in the early stages of development, but their influence diminished as economies shifted toward services and improved efficiency, while tertiary education became increasingly connected with lower energy use in later decades. |
| Keywords: | human capital, energy consumption, instrument variables, time-varying panel data models |
| JEL: | I25 Q41 Q43 C26 C33 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-01 |
| By: | Hunt Allcott; Mark L. Egan; Paul Smeets; Hanbin Yang |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of the European Union’s Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) on mutual fund flows and investment sustainability. The SFDR classifies funds into three categories to promote transparency and curb greenwashing: those with a sustainable investment objective (Article 9 or “dark green”), those that promote environmental characteristics (Article 8 or “light green”), and others (Article 6). Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that the SFDR had little effect on fund flows or portfolio sustainability. The disclosures were ineffective in part because they offered little new or clear information beyond what investors could already infer from fund names and mandates. In an experimental setting, we show that the current disclosures have minimal impact on investor decisions, but making the information more intuitive could improve the regulation’s effectiveness. |
| JEL: | G11 G50 Q50 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34624 |
| By: | Kumar, Deepak; Ta, Chi; Gupta. Anubhab |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the short-run economic impacts of low-intensity typhoons—tropical storms and depressions—on local activity in Vietnam. Leveraging monthly electricity consumption data for over two million households across three coastal provinces from 2012–2022, we construct a high-resolution panel merged with typhoon track data. We exploit hyperlocal variation in typhoon exposure using a dynamic event study and a stacked difference-in-differences design, defining treatment based on proximity within 17 kilometers of a storm’s path. Results show a sharp and statistically significant decline in electricity consumption—up to 5% in the month of landfall—concentrated in areas directly hit by tropical storms. Tropical depressions exhibit smaller, noisier effects. Comparison with BRDF-corrected nighttime lights (NTL) data reveals that electricity consumption provides more reliable estimates of typhoon impacts at lower administrative levels, as NTL measures fail the parallel trends test. Our findings underscore the economic relevance of frequently overlooked, lower-intensity storms and highlight the value of granular energy data in assessing disaster-induced disruptions in developing country contexts. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360982 |
| By: | Marcio Santetti |
| Abstract: | Energy efficiency gains in production and consumption are undisputed economic and environmental goals. However, potential energy savings derived from efficiency innovations may have short-lasting effects due to increased demand for more affordable energy services. Measuring the size of this rebound effect is a critical tool for better assessing the reliability of energy-saving technological change for global warming mitigation. This paper estimates the size of the economy-wide rebound effect using time-varying Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models with stochastic volatility for U.S. business-cycle peak and trough periods. All models estimate a rebound effect close to 100%, with reductions in energy use lasting no longer than three years following energy efficiency innovations. The latter, therefore, are an insufficient tool for effectively changing historical energy use patterns. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.20765 |
| By: | Honneth, Johannes; Cristancho Duarte, Camila; Hizliok, Setenay; Monsignori, Giorgia; Nuzzo, Carmen; Scheer, Antonina |
| Abstract: | ASCOR is an investor-led initiative launched to provide comprehensive and comparable assessments on how sovereigns are managing the low-carbon transition as well as the physical risks stemming from climate change. This report outlines use cases for the ASCOR tool, organised by user type: investors and sovereign bond issuers. We explain how these users might harness the ASCOR tool for their respective needs. The potential use cases and practical case studies are gleaned from the TPI Centre’s research and outreach through bilateral meetings, webinars and roundtables with various stakeholders. The report is designed to expand awareness of the practical applications of the ASCOR tool as well as stimulate greater use. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130780 |
| By: | Zhao, Xialing; Fan, Linlin; Xu, Yilan |
| Abstract: | Understanding how climate change beliefs are shaped by social networks is critical for designing effective climate communication strategies, yet the degree of peer influence across spatial and political contexts remains insufficiently understood. This study examines the influence of peer counties on local climate change beliefs using a spatial autoregressive (SAR) model. We construct geographic, political, and economic peer networks at the county level and quantify the magnitude of peer effects. Results show that a 10% increase in climate change beliefs among peer counties is associated with a 4.2% to 9.2% increase in average beliefs within the focal county, depending on the network type. The geographic peer network exerts the strongest influence, with estimated effects ranging from 6.7% to 9.2%, followed by the political network, with effects between 4.2% and 7.5%. Counterfactual simulations reveal that targeting interventions at top key opinion leader (KOL) counties—those most connected in a network—is more effective than targeting counties with extreme belief levels or KOL counties with below-average beliefs. These findings provide actionable insights for policymakers seeking to promote climate belief formation and encourage climate-friendly behaviors through network-informed interventions. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:360759 |
| By: | De Los Reyes, Jesus H. Felix |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of Arizona's 2017 net billing policy change on the quantity of solar energy sold back to the grid by residential customers, known as Net Metering Per Customer (NMPC). Using data from 2014 to 2019 to avoid COVID-19-related distortions, the analysis employs a synthetic control method to estimate counterfactual NMPC trends for both Arizona (state-level) and Tucson Electric Power (utility-level) to overcome the issue of missing control units. Control variables include average temperature, cloud cover, energy price, income, and geographic location. Results show minimal change in NMPC post-policy implementation, with Arizona and TEP's post-treatment trajectories closely tracking their synthetic counterparts. Placebo and ratio tests were conducted and these further indicate that any observed gaps are not statistically significant. The results suggest that the rate change did not significantly alter customer behavior, partially due to policy features such as grandfather clauses and solar rebates. Although the synthetic control method offers valuable information, further robustness checks using alternative models and refined variables are needed, such as a revised definition of cloudy days, to fully validate the effect of the policy. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361207 |
| By: | Dang, Ruirui; Badole, Sachin B.; Towe, Charles; Heintzelman, Martin D. |
| Abstract: | This study uses data from a discrete choice experiment in the northeastern U.S. to examine resident preferences for siting wind and solar energy projects. It explores the impacts of landscape, agricultural production, cooperation, and financial compensation to stakeholders. Findings suggest that households are more favorable to renewable energy development if subsidies are provided on their electricity bills. Key factors influencing decisions include visual impact, proximity, and community engagement. Payments to landowners and communities also play a significant role in shaping local support and acceptance. Our study further reveals considerable heterogeneity in preferences. Respondents demonstrated overall support for wind or solar farm development in their local community, though preferences differed among various demographic and attitudinal groups, with the average respondent willing to be compensated $88 less in their base electric bill. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361208 |
| By: | Hizliok, Setenay; Scheer, Antonina; Nuzzo, Carmen |
| Abstract: | Assessing Sovereign Climate-related Opportunities and Risks (ASCOR) is an investor-led initiative launched to provide comprehensive and comparable assessments on how sovereigns are managing the low-carbon transition as well as the physical risks stemming from climate change. ASCOR aims to inform, support and facilitate investment decisionmaking, especially by sovereign bondholders, and enable a more explicit consideration of climate change at the national level. In 2023, following a public consultation, the Transition Pathway Initiative Centre (TPI Centre) at the London School of Economics (LSE), launched the ASCOR tool including the first assessments of 25 pilot countries. In 2024, a larger universe of 70 countries was assessed. This progress note announces the list of 85 countries that will be assessed in 2025, provides a description of the project’s timeline and explains recent amendments to the ASCOR methodology and dataset. |
| JEL: | N0 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–07–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130799 |
| By: | Katharina Ledebur. Ladislav Bartuska; Klaus Friesenbichler; Peter Klimek |
| Abstract: | The automotive industry is undergoing transformation, driven by the electrification of powertrains, the rise of software-defined vehicles, and the adoption of circular economy concepts. These trends blur the boundaries between the automotive sector and other industries. Unlike internal combustion engine (ICE) production, where mechanical capabilities dominated, competitiveness in electric vehicle (EV) production increasingly depends on expertise in electronics, batteries, and software. This study investigates whether and how firms' ability to leverage cross-industry diversification contributes to competitive advantage. We develop a country-level product space covering all industries and an industry-specific product space covering over 900 automotive components. This allows us to identify clusters of parts that are exported together, revealing shared manufacturing capabilities. Closeness centrality in the country-level product space, rather than simple proximity, is a strong predictor of where new comparative advantages are likely to emerge. We examine this relationship across industrial sectors to establish patterns of path dependency, diversification and capability formation, and then focus on the EV transition. New strengths in vehicles and aluminium products in the EU are expected to generate 5 and 4.6 times more EV-specific strengths, respectively, than other EV-relevant sectors over the next decade, compared to only 1.6 and 4.5 new strengths in already diversified China. Countries such as South Korea, China, the US and Canada show strong potential for diversification into EV-related products, while established producers in the EU are likely to come under pressure. These findings suggest that the success of the automotive transformation depends on regions' ability to mobilize existing industrial capabilities, particularly in sectors such as machinery and electronic equipment. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.13178 |
| By: | Gillman, Max; Cevik, Emrah Ismail; Dibooglu, Sel |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the dynamic relationship between real oil prices and U.S. monetary policy instruments over more than fifty years. Using symmetric and asymmetric time-varying Granger predictability tests alongside time-varying local projections with stochastic volatility, the study assesses how U.S. monetary aggregates and interest rates predict real oil prices—and how oil prices, in turn, predict monetary variables. The results show that both narrow and broad monetary aggregates, as well as short- and long-term interest rates, Granger predict real oil prices to varying degrees since the 1970s, with notable differences between symmetric and asymmetric specifications. Predictability is bidirectional, yet oil price responses vary substantially over time. Local projections show that interest rates shock real oil prices with high magnitude during early conventional times, especially the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks plus some in the 1980s, but diminish markedly thereafter. In contrast, monetary aggregate shocks dominate in magnitude after 2008, as unconventional monetary policy became manifest. Money supply shocks strongly influence oil prices during the global financial crisis, the 2015–2019 normalization period, the COVID-19 episode, and the 2021–2023 inflation surge. Findings highlight historical time-varying asymmetry in how monetary policy interacts with oil markets, providing implications for policy. |
| Keywords: | real oil prices, time-varying Granger predictability, time-varying local projections with stochastic volatility, U.S. money supply aggregates, U.S. interest rates |
| JEL: | E43 E44 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–12–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cvh:coecwp:2025/04 |
| By: | Hurley, Sean P. |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a stylized model for the interaction of a water agency regulating a producer’s usage of water. The model motivates the importance of regulators understanding the producer’s groundwater pumping costs when making policy decisions. A model is developed for estimating the groundwater pumping costs in the San Joaquin Valley of California. This model is based on data from California’s Well Completion Report database. The groundwater cost model assumes that wells use electric well pumps and that producers are charged based on a time-of-use fee schedule. To estimate groundwater pumping costs, 12 scenarios are investigated to simulate different types of crops. Based on these scenarios, Stanislaus County has the lowest average groundwater pumping costs at $71 per acre-foot for an operation that only pumps water at maximum capacity in the non-peak winter season. The highest groundwater pumping cost is associated with Kings County at $578 per acre-foot. This estimate is based on a producer only pumping water at maximum capacity during peak summer months. An estimate was made of the per kWh charge for water under the 12 different scenarios. The cheapest electricity rate occurred in Madera County with a cost of $0.2544 per kWh. This cost is associated with a well pump being operated at maximum capacity during daylight hours for a winter crop. The most expensive electricity was $0.8522 per kWh for Kern County for a summer crop where the water is pumped only during peak electricity pricing. |
| Keywords: | Production Economics |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361068 |