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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Sardone, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the macroeconomic and distributional effects of the European Union's transition to Net Zero emissions through a gradually increasing carbon tax. I develop a New Keynesian Environmental DSGE model with two household types and distinct energy and non-energy sectors. Five alternative uses of carbon tax revenues are considered: equal transfers to households, targeted transfers to Hand-to-Mouth households, subsidies to green energy firms, and reductions in labor and capital income taxes. In the absence of technological progress, the carbon tax policy induces a persistent increase in energy prices and a reduction in GDP, investment, and consumption. Headline inflation falls below zero in the medium run, reflecting weaker aggregate demand. Distributional outcomes vary significantly depending on the implemented revenue recycling scheme: targeted transfers are the most progressive but entail larger macroeconomic costs, while subsidies and tax cuts mitigate output and investment losses but are less effective in narrowing the consumption gap. A limited foresight scenario, in which agents learn about policy targets sequentially, generates more volatile adjustment paths and temporary inflationary spikes around announcements, but long-run outcomes remain close to the baseline. |
| Keywords: | DSGE, fiscal redistribution, green transition, inequality, macroeconomic effects, net zero, TANK |
| JEL: | E32 H23 P28 Q43 Q52 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:330172 |
| By: | Dirk Lauinger; Deepjyoti Deka; Sungho Shin |
| Abstract: | Electricity distribution companies deploy battery storage to defer grid upgrades by reducing peak demand. In deregulated jurisdictions, such storage often sits idle because regulatory constraints bar participation in electricity markets. Here, we develop an optimization framework that, to our knowledge, provides the first formal model of market participation constraints within storage investment and operation planning. Applying the framework to a Massachusetts case study, we find that market participation could deliver similar savings as peak demand reduction. Under current conditions, market participation does not increase storage investment, but at very low storage costs, could incentivize deployment beyond local distribution needs. This might run contrary to the separation of distribution from generation in deregulated markets. Our framework can identify investment levels appropriate for local distribution needs. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.12435 |
| By: | Fabien Sanchez (G2Elab-SYREL - G2Elab-SYstèmes et Réseaux ELectriques - G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Ahmed Mohamed (G2Elab-SYREL - G2Elab-SYstèmes et Réseaux ELectriques - G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Rémy Rigo-Mariani (G2Elab-SYREL - G2Elab-SYstèmes et Réseaux ELectriques - G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Vincent Debusschere (G2Elab-SYREL - G2Elab-SYstèmes et Réseaux ELectriques - G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the implementation of supervised learning (SL) as a straightforward data-driven technique to compute the day-ahead bids of grid-connected battery energy systems (BESS) participating in energy markets. The objective is to implicitly account for price uncertainty in the BESS schedule before assessing the economic performance. The case study is a 10 MW BESS battery participating in the day-ahead market. Physic-Informed and more traditional loss functions and a large set of tuning parameters are compared based on the generated daily revenues. Either the power injected by the BESS or its state of charge is controlled, illustrating a compromise to find between the accuracy and the resilience of the results, once confronted with the high volatility of energy prices. The performance of AI-based controllers is assessed in terms of precision with a theoretical optimum obtained with a "perfect forecast". A reference bidding strategy using "backcasting" as a forecast is also considered. Simulation over the year 2021 with an hourly training data set of the energy prices of 2020 shows that SL models do not necessarily perform better than reference results (with a minimal error of 58 %). However, discussions about their tuning and design choices shed light on the complex implementation process of the selected case study. |
| Keywords: | Machine Leaning, Energy Market, Storage |
| Date: | 2025–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05310545 |
| By: | Rausch, Sebastian; von Ditfurth, Jakob |
| Abstract: | Ob Investoren/-innen Photovoltaikanlagen (PV-Anlagen) einführen, hängt stark davon ab, ob es sich für sie lohnt. Hierbei spielen Subventionen eine starke Rolle. Das deutsche Förderprogramm basiert aktuell auf Einspeisetarifen: Eigentümer/innen bekommen für 20 Jahre einen festen Preis garantiert, zu dem der erzeugte Strom verkauft werden kann. Dieser ZEW Policy Brief untersucht das deutsche Förderprogramm für PV-Anlagen und schaut dabei auf die Unterschiede zwischen Eigenheimbesitzer/innen und Vermieter/innen. Hauseigentümer sind bereit, nur 67 Cent für jeden Euro der diskontierten zukünftigen Erträge aus der Stromerzeugung zu zahlen. Trotz ähnlicher Investitionskosten und Einspeiseerlösen installieren Vermieter aufgrund der hohen Verwaltungskosten deutlich weniger PV-Anlagen für Mieterstrom. Die Unterbewertung der zukünftigen Erträge von PV-Investitionen birgt eine wichtige wirtschaftspolitische Schlussfolgerung: Durch eine Vorabförderung der PV-Investitionskosten hätte mehr als ein Drittel der ausgegebenen Fördersumme eingespart werden können. Damit Vermieter/innen mehr investieren, müssen die bürokratischen Hürden im Mieterstromprogramm verringert werden - was zudem auch Kosten einspart. Elektrofahrzeuge und Wärmepumpen sind zentrale Elemente der Energiewende und wichtig zur Erreichung der Klimaneutralität. Deswegen sollten die Erkenntnisse dieses Policy Brief genutzt werden, um zukünftige Förderprogramme effizient und erfolgreich zu gestalten. |
| Keywords: | Förderung erneuerbarer Energien, Förderprogramm, Subvention, Photovoltaik, Solartechnik, Sonnenenergie, Wohnimmobilien, Deutschland |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:329909 |
| By: | Blossey, Nils; Haffert, Lukas; Stoetzer, Lukas |
| Abstract: | Historical industrial centers have shifted to the right but have done so at different speeds and intensities. We argue that this variation can be explained by differences in the historical industrialization process. Communities that industrialized later and more intensively realign more toward the radical right today. This is because the built environment shaped by the original industrialization drives demographic persistence and neighborhood disadvantage. To examine our argument, we study the effects of nineteenth-century coal mining in Germany's Ruhr area. We match the geolocation of over 1, 000 mining shafts, historical plant-level employment data, and the spread of company housing with contemporary electoral results at the neighborhood level. For identification, we exploit the depth of coal deposits that governed the adoption of deep-shaft mining. The findings demonstrate how the path of economic development influences voting in the long run. |
| Date: | 2025–10–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tswm7_v1 |
| By: | Stefano Carattini; Ian Fletcher; Chad Kendall; Michael K. Price; Arthur Vu |
| Abstract: | Many socially desirable policies are not implemented because of their ex-ante unpopularity, but this unpopularity may be overcome through experience with the policy. In this paper, we examine how opposition to carbon pricing in the state of Washington turned into support after voters experienced a cap-and-trade policy with revenues earmarked for environmental purposes – "cap-and-invest." Analyzing voting behavior at the census block group level, we observe that support varies by political affiliation as expected, but experience consistently increases support across the board. Using a proprietary survey, we further show that the increase in support among voters in Washington state is specific to the cap-and-invest policy they experienced; support for carbon pricing or climate policies more generally remained unchanged. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing, experience, public support, voting, polarization |
| JEL: | C93 D72 D83 H23 H71 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12206 |
| By: | Spiller, Beia (Resources for the Future); Zhang, Roulin; Stein, Elizabeth; Kontou, Eleftheria; Yoshizumi, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This paper employs an economics-engineering model to simulate the impact of various electric tariff structures and rate levels on the charging economics of six hypothetical medium- and heavy-duty vehicle fleets, including their total bills and peak demand without managed charging as well as their opportunity to save money and lower their peak demand by managing their charging. It uses real fleet data from a set of fossil-fueled fleets as the basis for modeling the duty cycle of hypothetical electric fleets; employs heuristics for how an operator would respond to a price signal; models charging behavior in the context of several thousand rates described in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Utility Rate Database; compares charging behavior depending on tariff features, including reliance on demand-based versus volumetric determinants, and the extent to which they are time-variant; and evaluates the potential for cost savings, peak demand mitigation, and the alignment between those outcomes. We find that managed charging can provide substantial cost savings for electric vehicle fleets while alleviating peak demand pressures on the grid. Among the tariff structures analyzed, those with time-of-use demand and volumetric components deliver the highest cost-saving opportunities compared with other tariffs, especially for fleets with adaptable charging schedules and significant daily mileage requirements. In contrast, tariffs with flat volumetric rates, or that do not include a demand component, may be straightforward but offer little incentive for cost optimization through load shifting. |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-25-22 |
| By: | Fahlén, Per (Chalmers University of Technology); Henrekson, Magnus (Research Institute of Industrial Economics); Nilsson, Mats (Södertörn University) |
| Abstract: | We examine EU and UK plans for achieving a fossil-free energy system by 2050, centered on massive electrification and large-scale deployment of wind and solar power. Using empirical trends, cost analyses, and system-function assessments, we argue that current strategies underestimate real economic, technical, and social challenges. Three scenarios for meeting 2050 electricity demand are compared: full reliance on renewables; a 50/50 split between wind-solar and nuclear; predominantly nuclear. Evidence shows that higher shares of weather-dependent generation correlate with higher electricity pric-es, greater volatility, and increased system integration costs. High renewable shares require extensive backup, storage, and grid reinforcement, raising complexity and environmental impacts. Overlooked costs are highlighted: reduced capacity value, transmission expansion, balancing services, and so-cial externalities. Sustainability must encompass environmental, economic, and social dimensions. A technologically diverse, dispatchable-power-based strategy—especially with expanded nuclear power— offers a more robust, cost-effective, and socially acceptable pathway to climate neutrality than a predominant reliance on intermittent renewables. |
| Keywords: | renewable electricity, mission-oriented policy, green transition, cispatchable electricity, climate change, rent-seeking |
| JEL: | L26 L52 L70 O38 P11 Q48 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18179 |
| By: | Gregor, Leonard; Haucap, Justus |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the temporary reduction in energy taxes implemented by the German government between June and September 2022. We use pricing and quantity data from the wholesale market for crude oil, gasoline, and diesel and find an average pass through of 80% to 85% of the tax cut, which amounts to a 3.7 cents per liter increase in wholesale prices net of tax. We do, however, document significant treatment heterogeneity over time and across regions within Germany. When weighting price effects by quantities sold, the estimated pass-through of the tax cut decreases to about 70% for gasoline and 58% for diesel, suggesting that refinery margins increased significantly during times of higher demand. |
| Keywords: | Pass-through, Tax reduction, Fuel prices, Wholesale markets |
| JEL: | H22 L13 L71 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:329637 |
| By: | Tiantian Yang (Xi’an Jiaotong University); Richard S.J. Tol (University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | To address the dual environmental challenges of pollution and climate change, China has established multiple environmental markets, including pollution emissions trading, carbon emissions trading, energy-use rights trading, and green electricity trading. Previousempirical studies suffer from known biases arising from time-varying treatment and multipletreatments. To address these limitations, this study adopts a dynamic control group designand combines Difference-in-Difference (DiD) and Artificial Counterfactual (ArCo) empiricalstrategies. Using panel data on A-share listed companies from 2000 to 2024, this studyinvestigates the marginal effects and interactive impacts of multiple environmental marketsimplemented in staggered and overlapping phases. Existing pollution emissions tradingmitigates the negative effects of carbon emission trading. Carbon trading suppresses(improves) financial performance (if implemented alongside energy-use rights trading). Theaddition of energy-use rights or green electricity trading in regions already covered bycarbon or pollution markets has no significant effects. |
| Keywords: | Multiple environmental markets; Policy interactions; Marginal abatement cost;Contamination bias; Artificial Counterfactual; Difference-in-Difference |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0625 |
| By: | Giovanni Dosi; Federico Riccio; Maria Enrica Virgillito |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the fragmentation of production across Global Value Chains (GVCs) generates both economic and environmental inequalities. Building on the "smile curve" framework (Mudambi, 2008; Meng et al., 2020), we show that developing countries specialize in low-value-added, high-emission production stages, while advanced economies capture high-value, low-emission activities like R&D and design (Riccio et al., 2025). Using OECD ICIO and CO2 emissions data, we demonstrate that GVC integration exacerbates a "double harm": production workers -particularly in middle-stage manufacturing- face wage suppression, while these same stages exhibit higher carbon intensity per unit of value added. This aligns with the Pollution Haven Hypothesis (Cole, 2004), as emissions are displaced to regions with weaker regulations. Our analysis reveals an environmental smile curve, where environmental and economic downgrading co-occur in middle segments of GVCs, reinforcing global inequalities. These disparities intensify with deeper GVC penetration, challenging the decoupling narrative of green growth. By integrating labour and emissions data, we provide novel evidence of how GVCs structurally embed unequal ecological and economic burdens. |
| Keywords: | Smile Curve, Ecological Economics, Global Value Chain, Embodied emissions, Environmental and Income Inequality. |
| Date: | 2025–10–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2025/35 |
| By: | Aditya Khemka; Christina Laskaridis; Dimitrios P. Tsomocos |
| Abstract: | In transitioning from coal-dependent growth to a low-carbon economy, South Africa faces intertwined environmental, macro-financial and distributional risks. We build a two-period computable general equilibrium model with heterogeneous households, firms and a dual-tier banking system, embedding endogenous default, brown and green capital markets and a pollution-damage feedback. After calibrating to South African data, we compare three instruments downstream carbon taxes, brown risk-weighted capital surcharges and green capital discounts individually and jointly. Carbon taxation most sharply curbs emissions and, when revenues are rebated to workers, also narrows wealth and consumption inequality. Brown penalising factors restrain leverage and reduce default probabilities but raise energy prices and widen wage inequality; green supporting factors lower financing costs yet trigger a Jevons-type rebound that can increase coal demand. Welfare decompositions show that no single tool dominates; the optimal approach involves pairing a carbon tax with prudential tweaks that balance climate gains, stability and equity for South Africa. |
| Date: | 2025–10–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:wpaper:11090 |
| By: | Par Olivier Appert (AT - Académie des Technologies - Académie des Technologies, Institut Français des Relations Internationales (IFRI), Association Nationale de la Recherche et de la Technologie (ANRT)); Félix Eléfant (LHEEA - Laboratoire de recherche en Hydrodynamique, Énergétique et Environnement Atmosphérique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, Association Nationale de la Recherche et de la Technologie (ANRT)); Richard Lavergne (CGEIET - Conseil général de l'économie, de l'industrie, de l'énergie et des technologies - Ministère de l'Économie, des Finances et de l'Industrie [Paris, France], Association Nationale de la Recherche et de la Technologie (ANRT)); Denis Randet (Association Nationale de la Recherche et de la Technologie (ANRT)) |
| Abstract: | L'Association nationale recherche technologie (ANRT) dispose d'un groupe de travail permanent dont la mission est de soutenir les pouvoirs publics dans l'élaboration de la Stratégie nationale de la recherche énergétique (SNRE) prévue par l'article L. 144-1 du code de l'énergie et qui constitue le volet énergie de la stratégie nationale de recherche prévue à l'article L. 111-6 du code de la recherche. L'article L. 144-1 précité confie aux ministres chargés de l'énergie et de la recherche la tâche d'élaborer la SNRE en prenant en compte les orientations de la politique énergétique et climatique définies par la stratégie nationale bas-carbone (SNBC) et la programmation pluriannuelle de l'énergie (PPE) qui sont toutes deux révisées au moins tous les 5 ans, soit au plus tard d'ici 2024 pour les nouvelles éditions. C'est dans ce contexte que le groupe de travail « SNRE » a examiné les ruptures - ou game changers - en matière de technologie pour la transition énergétique. |
| Keywords: | Technologie, Transition énergétique, Climat, Compétitivité, Neutralité carbone |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05308236 |
| By: | Geßner, Paul; Schöne, Lars Bernhard |
| Abstract: | Der Gebäudesektor ist weltweit für rund ein Drittel aller CO2-Emissionen verantwortlich und steht dadurch sowohl unter zunehmendem regulatorischem Druck (transitorische Risiken), als auch unter dem Einfluss klimatischer Veränderungen (physische Risiken). Eine integrierte Betrachtung beider Risikodimensionen ist bisher kaum etabliert, obwohl sie für die Bewertung von Immobilien notwendig ist. Vor diesem Hintergrund entwickelt das vorliegende Arbeitspapier ein Scoring-Modell, das beide Kategorien systematisch erfasst und im sogenannten Stranded Asset Index (SAI) auf Objektebene für Wohnimmobilien in Deutschland vereint. Durch eine anschließende Regressionsanalyse wird die Aussagekraft des SAI hinsichtlich des Angebotspreises validiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Klimarisiken signifikant auf den Angebotspreis von Immobilien wirken, wenngleich sie jedoch noch nicht konstant in der Bepreisung berücksichtigt werden. |
| Abstract: | The building sector is responsible for around one third of global CO₂ emissions and is therefore increasingly exposed to regulatory pressure (transition risks) as well as the impacts of climate change (physical risks). An integrated assessment of both risk dimensions has so far been largely absent, although it is essential for the valuation of real estate. Against this background, this working paper develops a scoring model that systematically captures both categories and combines them into the so-called Stranded Asset Index (SAI) at the property level for residential real estate in Germany. A subsequent regression analysis validates the explanatory power of the SAI with regard to asking prices. The results show that climate risks have a significant effect on real estate asking prices, although they are not yet consistently reflected in pricing. |
| Keywords: | Wohnimmobilien, Treibhausgas-Emissionen, Immobilienbewertung, Deutschland |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iiwmps:329629 |
| By: | Siemroth, Christoph |
| Date: | 2025–10–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esx:essedp:41743 |
| By: | Blankespoor, Brian; Dasgupta, Susmita; Wheeler, David |
| Abstract: | A scalable method for estimating changes in local greenhouse gas emissions from satellite-based atmospheric composition measures is developed and applied in this paper. The analysis employs large panels of spatially-referenced, time-stamped atmospheric carbon dioxide observations from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 and methane observations from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-5P. The analysis computes monthly mean concentration anomalies, defined as deviations from global trends. Long- and short-term trend regressions were estimated for cells of high-resolution global grids, and cell-specific results meeting the classical significance test (p ≤ 0.05) were identified as positive or negative trends. These high-resolution findings were aggregated to generate performance scores for geographic areas of arbitrary scale. The global scalability of the approach was demonstrated with performance assessments for 242 countries and disputed areas, 3, 242 provinces, 36, 563 sub-provinces, 6, 672 Functional Urban Areas, and 670 offshore oil and gas production zones. Regional illustrations were provided for 11 Southeast Asian countries, alongside a global overview organized by World Bank regions and income groups. Findings indicated that long-term carbon dioxide decreases outnumbered increases, but recent changes (2024–25) revealed a reversal. By contrast, methane displayed large net decreases in both long- and short-term measures. The results highlighted substantial variation across regions and income groups. Low-income countries showed the strongest movement toward reductions, yet their contributions remain overshadowed by high-income economies, where performance has been mixed. It is hoped that this methodology will inform global policy dialogue by enabling transparent and comparable emissions assessments. The approach also provides a practical tool for identifying emissions hotspots, supporting policy makers at the national and subnational levels in developing targeted mitigation strategies aligned with global climate objectives. |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11237 |
| By: | Tarufelli, Brittany; Gibson, James; Barrows, Sarah; Somani, Abhishek; Boff, Daniel |
| Abstract: | Grid-scale energy storage enhances power system performance by shifting loads and supporting capacity, reliability, and transmission. However, as storage penetration increases, arbitrage opportunities—and associated profits—decline (Sioshansi et al., 2009; Li et al., 2024). In ERCOT, for example, 2024 saw reduced arbitrage due to moderate weather and expanded storage. This trend contrasts with findings that long-duration storage is essential for reliability and affordability (Blair et al., 2022), suggesting the need for new business models to capture storage’s full value. Despite growing deployment in energy storage, empirical research on storage’s value remains limited. To address this gap, we develop a commodity-market-based framework and apply it to hydropower as a grid-scale storage resource. Using exogenous variation in reservoir storage volume as a proxy for energy storage, we estimate its causal effect on risk premiums—measured by the day-ahead to real-time price spread—in the Northwestern United States between May 2022 and November 2024. Employing fixed effects and lagged dependent variable models, we control for time-invariant heterogeneity across balancing authorities and account for dynamic price behavior. We find that a 10% increase in reservoir storage volume reduces risk premiums by 5%, indicating that hydropower reservoir storage mitigates short-term supply-demand imbalances. Our results are robust to dynamic pricing effects and suggest that storage is especially valuable during grid stress events, with pronounced impacts at the upper end of the price distribution. This result indicates that reservoir storage may be more valuable during grid stress events. As most markets lack compensation mechanisms for stored energy, our findings offer empirical support for designing future models that better reflect the risk-reducing benefits of grid-scale storage. |
| Date: | 2025–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:bm5jf_v1 |
| By: | Runyao Yu; Ruochen Wu; Yongsheng Han; Jochen L. Cremer |
| Abstract: | Accurate probabilistic forecasting of intraday electricity prices is critical for market participants to inform trading decisions. Existing studies rely on specific domain features, such as Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and the last price. However, the rich information in the orderbook remains underexplored. Furthermore, these approaches are often developed within a single country and product type, making it unclear whether the approaches are generalizable. In this paper, we extract 384 features from the orderbook and identify a set of powerful features via feature selection. Based on selected features, we present a comprehensive benchmark using classical statistical models, tree-based ensembles, and deep learning models across two countries (Germany and Austria) and two product types (60-min and 15-min). We further perform a systematic generalization study across countries and product types, from which we reveal an asymmetric generalization phenomenon. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2510.12685 |
| By: | Nazif Durmaz; Farhad Rassekh; Henry Thompson |
| Abstract: | The present paper estimates total factor productivity TFP for the United States with 74 years of data including primary energy as a factor of production along with fixed capital assets and the labor force. The inclusion of energy improves the empirics of the neoclassical production function. In differences of natural logs, energy doubles the explanatory power and reduces residual correlation as well as heteroscedasticity. In addition, energy reduces the mean and variance of the Solow residual leading to a slower cumulative effect. In the growth accounting literature, to calculate TFP, the weight of 0.3 is commonly assigned to capital and 0.7 to labor. Our estimation suggests that these weights should be adjusted to make room for an energy weight of 0.07. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth, TFP, Energy |
| JEL: | D24 E23 O47 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2025-10 |
| By: | Olivier, Annabelle; Morin, Jean-Frédéric |
| Abstract: | Are climate treaties, like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) or the Paris Agreement, the only way forward for intergovernmental climate cooperation? By now, there are hundreds of multilateral treaties governing a wide range of environmental issues, including energy, freshwater, oceans, air pollution, biodiversity conservation, hazardous waste, agriculture and fisheries. This policy brief examines whether the 379 multilateral environmental treaties that do not primarily address climate change can nevertheless contribute to advancing climate commitments. We find that decisions adopted under environmental treaties have increasingly mainstreamed climate considerations since 1990. Today, climate-related decisions account for around 10% of regulatory decisions adopted under environmental treaties across different issue areas. Some treaty regimes are particularly active in addressing climate change, such as those focused on energy, freshwater and habitats, with up to 60% of their decisions addressing climate change. In contrast, treaties regulating agriculture and fisheries demonstrate a notably lower level of engagement in climate mainstreaming. These findings demonstrate that environmental treaties that do not specifically focus on climate change can still contribute to shaping climate governance, albeit to varying degrees. This policy brief concludes with a set of recommendations for researchers, treaty negotiators, secretariats, governments and climate activists seeking to advance intergovernmental cooperation on climate change through means other than climate treaties. Key policy messages: Non-climate-focused treaties can serve as a means for developing climate mitigation and adaptation commitments, notably through decisions adopted by their respective bodies. Yet, there is room for increased climate mainstreaming in those decisions. Various actors can contribute to such mainstreaming: • Researchers could further investigate why some conferences of the parties (COPs) are more receptive to climate concerns than others and what potential trade-offs are associated with climate mainstreaming in environmental treaties. • Treaty negotiators can favour cross-cutting mandates that enhance policy coherence across interconnected environmental challenges, enabling a more integrated approach to environmental decision-making. They can also design dynamic collective bodies, able to adopt decisions swiftly when new issues or information arise. • Governments can appoint climate experts in non-climate COPs and advisory committees and report climate-related aspects of their implementation of non-climate treaties. • Treaty secretariats can coordinate joint initiatives and promote knowledge exchange across climate and other environmental regimes. • Climate activists can intensify their engagement with non-climate COPs by participating in consultations, submitting position papers, and collaborating with sympathetic delegates to amplify the climate relevance of treaty decisions. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:329914 |
| By: | Paul C. Behler (University of Bonn); Paulina Schröder (Rockwool Foundation Berlin & Humboldt University of Berlin) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies ecospirituality - spiritual views that people have about the natural world. First, utilizing folklore data from around 1, 000 pre-industrial societies, we present the first comprehensive global measurement of ecospirituality. Our analysis reveals systematic cultural variation: ecospirituality is most prevalent in South America and least prevalent in Europe. Additionally, we find a strong negative correlation between ecospirituality and belief in high gods. Second, we study the potential impact of historical ecospirituality on current environmental attitudes. Combining data from the Integrated Values Survey with folklore, we find no statistically significant relationship between contemporary environmental attitudes and the prevalence of ecospirituality in the folklore of ones ancestors. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Attitudes, Ecospirituality, Folklore |
| JEL: | Q50 Z12 Z13 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:377 |
| By: | Luiza Nassif Pires; Gilberto Tadeu Lima; Pedro Romero Marques; Tainari Taioka; José Bergamin |
| Abstract: | Announced in June 2021, the never-implemented Green Recovery Plan for the Brazilian Legal Amazon Region (GRP) would be a green transition initiative to be carried out by the state governments of the region. The GRP represented the first large-scale proposal aiming at the transition to a low-carbon economy in Brazil and offered a preliminary framework to evaluate the opportunities and limitations of green development in Global South economies. The GRP's initial phase would provide an investment of 1.5 billion reais (around $315 million in September 2023) in four areas: control of illegal deforestation, sustainable development, green technology, and green infrastructure. This article presents a counterfactual analysis by assessing the impacts of green spending in Amazon on the labor market, quantitatively--in terms of the number of jobs created--and qualitatively--exploring the distribution of those jobs by region and according to gender and race categories. We build synthetic sectors representing each area of investment in a two-region input-output matrix ("Brazilian Amazon" and "Rest of Brazil"). Using employment multipliers, we simulate a demand shock on the Amazonian economy and its impact on job creation in the two regions. Results suggest that green spending in the Amazon offers good perspectives (but also highlights limitations) for a just transition to a low-carbon economy in Brazil: the effects on employment favored the female workforce (both black and white) relative to the male and black workforce in the Amazon, leading to inequality-reducing composition changes in the Brazilian workforce as whole. |
| Keywords: | Green and just transition; Brazilian Amazon; employment multipliers; green spending |
| JEL: | J15 Q57 Q58 R11 R53 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1041 |
| By: | Chirag Lala |
| Abstract: | The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is criticized for "derisking" private investment by increasing the gains to private firms. The derisking critique argues that the IRA insufficiently disciplines private firms; it does not utilize legal or financial penalties which would force firms to undertake green investment and bar emissions-intensive investment. This paper answers that critique by providing a Post-Keynesian theory of capital expenditure. It argues all industrial policies promote investment by removing or mitigating risks in an environment of fundamental uncertainty. Industrial policies tackle different risks and can be assessed or compared on their effectiveness in doing so. An insufficient investment growth rate need not be an indication of their failure, but that complementary policies are required to mitigate risks or make risks calculable. For instance, the IRA's uncapped Investment Tax Credit (ITC) increases clean energy investment by reducing project reliance on expensive debt financing. The ITC does not address other barriers to clean energy investment: transmission and distribution, permitting, or the need for clean firm resources. This is not a failure of discipline, but rather an indication that more state intervention must facilitate rapid decarbonization. The derisking critique's emphasis on disciplining private firms into investment reallocation underestimates real obstacles to investment, particularly how those obstacles shape choices faced by firms. It also affects the character of investment itself, making it inaccurate to describe investment as the allocation of fixed financial resources. The derisking critique lacks a mechanism connecting financial or legal disciplinary measures on firms to an increase in green capital expenditure. This causes the derisking critique to miss a more productive avenue for investigating industrial policy conditionalities: linking them to a broader state-led coordination of varying industrial policy priorities, the timing of capital expenditure to meet them, and seizing of opportunities presented by their success. Originally issued as EDI Working Paper No. 19, March 2024. |
| Keywords: | Tax Credits; IRA; Inflation Reduction Act; Clean Energy; Industrial Policy; Investment Theory; Capital Theory; Risk; Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1069 |
| By: | Bertille Daran (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Clément Nedoncelle (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Climate aid is an international financial flow that promotes mitigation and adaptation to climate change while supporting local economic development. These flows may have unintended consequences, potentially exacerbating environmental degradation. This study examines the impact of climate aid on deforestation in Africa from 2001 to 2021. Using a novel dataset of geocoded aid projects that we classify as pursuing climate-related objectives by applying a machine learning model, we find evidence of a causal link between climate aid and forest loss. On average, deforestation increases by 94 hectares for every additional 1 million USD of geocoded climate aid projects disbursed. Over the complete period and spatial extent, 5% of deforestation is linked to the disbursement of climate aid projects. These effects are heterogeneous and vary by initial forest cover: aid increases deforestation in densely forested areas, while it appears to reduce deforestation where forest cover was initially sparse. Analysis of the mechanisms suggests that the effects are primarily driven by economic funding for mitigation, production-related activities, and particularly agricultural expansion. |
| Abstract: | L'aide climatique est un flux financier international qui favorise l'atténuation et l'adaptation au changement climatique tout en soutenant le développement économique local. Ces flux peuvent avoir des conséquences imprévues, susceptibles d'aggraver la dégradation de l'environnement. Cette étude examine l'impact de l'aide climatique sur la déforestation en Afrique entre 2001 et 2021. À l'aide d'un nouvel ensemble de données géocodées sur les projets d'aide que nous classons comme poursuivant des objectifs liés au climat en appliquant un modèle d'apprentissage automatique, nous avons trouvé des preuves d'un lien de causalité entre l'aide climatique et la perte de forêts. En moyenne, la déforestation augmente de 94 hectares pour chaque million de dollars supplémentaires versés dans le cadre de projets d'aide climatique géocodés. Sur l'ensemble de la période et de l'étendue spatiale, 5 % de la déforestation est liée au versement de projets d'aide climatique. Ces effets sont hétérogènes et varient en fonction de la couverture forestière initiale : l'aide augmente la déforestation dans les zones densément boisées, tandis qu'elle semble la réduire là où la couverture forestière était initialement clairsemée. L'analyse des mécanismes suggère que ces effets sont principalement dus au financement économique des activités d'atténuation, des activités liées à la production et, en particulier, de l'expansion agricole. |
| Keywords: | Land conversion, Tropical deforestation, Mitigation and adaptation |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-05310970 |
| By: | Chaurey, Ritam (Johns Hopkins SAIS); Nayyar, Guarav (The World Bank); Sharma, Siddharth (The World Bank); Verhoogen, Eric (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | Knowledge spillovers among firms are widely viewed as a key driver of agglomeration and growth, but are difficult to estimate cleanly. We randomly allocated an energy-efficient motor – a “servo'” motor – among leather-goods firms in Dhaka, Bangladesh, and tracked adoption, information flows, beliefs about energy savings, and other variables. We use the difference between actual exposure and expected exposure (from simulated randomization draws) to identify the effect of exposure. We find a robust positive effect of exposure to treated neighbors within a small geographic area (500 meters in our baseline specification) on information flows and adoption. A marginal value of public funds (MVPF) calculation taking learning spillovers into account yields a significantly larger value than one considering only treated firms and suggests that adoption subsidies would be a cost-effective policy intervention. |
| Keywords: | knowledge spillovers, social learning, technology adoption, energy efficiency |
| JEL: | O14 R11 L67 L23 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18183 |
| By: | Asim, Meerab |
| Abstract: | We examine market reactions to climate events using event study methodology on a final sample of 250 high-severity events (2000–2025) across US, EU, and Asian markets, which were filtered from a raw dataset of over 1.5 million events. Broad US indices (SPY, QQQ) show no significant event- day AR, while the US energy sector (XLE) exhibits a negative reaction (−6 bps, p < 0.001). EU proxies (EZU, VGK) show small positive reactions (+3 to +6 bps), and Asian markets display heterogeneous responses. While statistically significant, transaction costs exceed gross effects, supporting market efficiency while revealing sector-specific sensitivities to climate information. Results challenge uniform climate risk pricing and suggest regional differences and sector composition drive responses. All inferential results use the analyzed sample of 250 non-overlapping events; diagnostic figures may summarize a larger candidate set used for alignment. |
| Date: | 2025–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5xdz2_v1 |
| By: | Audrey Laude (CRIEG - Centre de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Economie Gestion - MSH-URCA - Maison des Sciences Humaines de Champagne-Ardenne - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne, REGARDS - Recherches en Economie Gestion Agroressources Durabilité et Santé - CRIEG - Centre de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Economie Gestion - MSH-URCA - Maison des Sciences Humaines de Champagne-Ardenne - URCA - Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne) |
| Abstract: | Le BECCS (BioEnergy with Carbon Capture and Storage) permet de récupérer les émissions de dioxyde de carbone issues de bioraffineries pour le stocker définitivement dans des formations géologiques. Le BECCS est considéré comme incontournable dans les modèles du GIEC pour limiter la hausse des températures mais son déploiement est très lent. Outre le manque d'incitations économiques adéquates, cet article démontre que cette technologie a été conçue dans une perspective top-down, sans prendre en compte les caractéristiques locales ni les effets de concurrence avec les autres technologies de décarbonation. Pour cela une analyse des discours sur le BECCS dans la littérature scientifique est réalisée puis comparés aux difficultés rencontrées par les acteurs du projet CO2-DISSOLVED cherchant à construire un pilote industriel. |
| Keywords: | bioénergies, BECCS, pilote industriel, Stockage géologique du carbone, Stockage géologique du carbone bioénergies BECCS pilote industriel |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05188417 |
| By: | Giovanni Dosi; Federico Riccio; Maria Enrica Virgillito |
| Abstract: | This paper brings new compelling regional-level evidence on the environmental degradation brought about by intra-European value chains. The paper postulates the presence of pollution havens derived as a consequence of the European production integration. We identify a neat elites-ghettos divide in carbon emission intensity per unit of production across EU regions: while capital-city and Northern regions form a carbon elites club, of contained emissions, Eastern regions converge towards systematically higher intensities. We build the intra-EU emission network, looking at the CO2 embodied in its backwards linkages to account for the extent to which the divide derives from GVC participation. The flow analysis reveals a steady decline in domestic multipliers, but persistently higher carbon intensity in foreign intermediates, with the Eastern regions dominating the most polluting linkages. The elites-ghettos regions are characterised by opposite emission paths: while the first export CO2 via the outsourcing of the most-polluting production activities toward the East, the latter import CO2 via the production of high-emission intermediaries for the West. In fact, convergence clubs display distinct specialisation profiles, with mid-stream manufacturing regions structurally locked into higher emission intensity. Overall, the paper highlights a discarded dimension of GVCs, that is, the environmental lock-in paths for regions embedded into GVCs to serve as pollution havens for the European carbon elite. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions; Global Value Chains; Club convergence; Regional specialisation; Carbon leakage |
| Date: | 2025–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2025/31 |
| By: | Rozendaal, Rik (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Vollebergh, Herman (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:2e0a8764-40ea-48e7-852a-31a624c09d7e |
| By: | Lekha S. Chakraborty; Emmanuel Thomas |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of fiscal transition concomitant to energy transition policies with climate change commitments, revenue from the extractive sector needs a recalibration in the subnational fiscal space. Extractive tax is the payment due to the government in exchange for the right to extract the mineral substance. Extractive tax has been fixed and paid in multiple tax regimes, sometimes on the measures of ad valorem (value-based) or profits or as the unit of the mineral extracted. Using the ARDL methodology, this paper analyzes the buoyancy of extractive revenue across the states in India, for the period 1991-92 to 2022-23 and analyzes the short- and long-run coefficients and their speed of adjustment. There are no identified structural breaks in the series predominantly because of the homogenous extractive policy regime shift to ad valorem from a unit-based regime. Our findings revealed that extractive tax is a buoyant source of own revenue, though there are distinct state-specific differentials. The policy implication of our study is crucial for a "just transition" related to climate change commitments where extractive industries' tax buoyancy is compared to other tax buoyancy across Indian states, and can be used as the base scenario to estimate the loss of revenue when fiscal transition sets in with "just transition" policies. |
| Keywords: | fiscal rules; energy transition; tax buoyancy; ARDL; extractive sector regime |
| JEL: | Q40 Q48 E62 |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_1047 |
| By: | Toptancî, Alî |
| Abstract: | This study will examine the economic impacts of a transformation in which clean energy becomes more prevalent in the Kurdistan Region, within the scope of the Runaki Project. The elimination of approximately 3, 200 private generators within the scope of the Runaki Project marks the first step in transitioning to clean electricity in the Kurdistan Region. Thanks to the Runaki, cities such as Erbil, Duhok, Slemani, Halabja, and their districts started to have access to clean electricity and benefit from uninterrupted electrical energy. Before the Runaki Project, electricity costs in the Kurdistan Region were reflected in high bills due to private generators that took advantage of power outages and caused air pollution. Therefore, people’s budgets were negatively affected due to high electricity costs. In line with the decision taken by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), with an investment of approximately $200 million regarding the Runaki Project, works are ongoing to eliminate air pollution, provide clean and uninterrupted electricity, and ensure that affordable electricity will be widespread throughout the Kurdistan Region by the end of 2026. In the long term, the transition to clean energy in the Kurdistan Region within the scope of the Runaki Project is expected to contribute to economic growth and prevent the recent slowdown in productivity in the Kurdistan Region. It is envisioned that the Runaki Project will contribute to economic prosperity in the Kurdistan Region within the context of the 2030-2050 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and as a measure to mitigate the climate crisis resulting from global warming. In this context, the Runaki Project has observed that efforts to combat inflation, increase employment, and prevent recession in the Kurdistan Region are accelerating, yielding numerous economic benefits. The Runaki Project will enhance the electricity grid, lower electricity costs throughout the Kurdistan Region, and provide additional savings for the citizens of the Kurdistan Region. |
| Keywords: | Kurdistan Region, Runaki Project, clean electricity, uninterrupted electricity, economic growth, SDGs. |
| JEL: | Q40 Q41 Q42 Q43 Q48 Q54 Q56 R11 R13 R58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126289 |
| By: | Boughabi, Houssam |
| Abstract: | This study develops a theoretical model to understand the dynamics of crude oil prices, integrating Keynesian insights on imperfect competition and long-memory volatility through the FIGARCH framework. The model incorporates both demand and supply-side factors, with a particular focus on firm expectations and production costs, to explain price fluctuations. By calibrating the model to historical oil price data, we examine how demand dynamics, driven by expectations of future demand and current production costs, influence oil price movements. The study highlights the limitations of relying solely on demand as a predictor for price changes, particularly in the context of global disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results reveal that the exclusion of supply-side factors, including production costs and geopolitical risks, leads to significant discrepancies in price predictions, especially during periods of crisis. The findings emphasize the need for a more comprehensive approach to modeling oil prices, incorporating both demand and supply dynamics, to better capture market behavior during times of global shocks. |
| Keywords: | Long Memory Volatility, Market Efficiency, Covid Pandemic, Price Dynamics, Theoretical Modeling |
| JEL: | C58 G13 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126287 |
| By: | Halkos, George; Zisiadou, Argyro |
| Abstract: | Monitoring national climate performance is fundamental for translating the Paris Agreement’s global objectives into actionable national policy. This study examines Greece’s progress through the lens of the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), an internationally recognized tool assessing mitigation efforts across four pillars: Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions, Renewable Energy, Energy Use, and Climate Policy. Drawing on data from CCPI (2006–2025), IPCC assessments, and national policy documents, the analysis situates Greece’s climate trajectory within the broader frameworks of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Results indicate that Greece’s CCPI ranking improved from 35th in 2018 to 22nd in 2025, reflecting significant advances in renewable energy deployment and energy efficiency, yet persistent weaknesses in policy implementation and governance capacity. The country’s emissions have declined by approximately 38% since 2005, driven by a rapid lignite phase-out and expansion of solar and wind power. However, gaps remain in transport, buildings, and industrial decarbonization, limiting full alignment with a 1.5°C-compatible pathway. The findings highlight the interplay between technical progress and institutional performance, showing that Greece’s transition is constrained less by technological potential than by fragmented governance, delayed enforcement, and uneven adaptation capacity. Strengthening policy coherence, sectoral accountability, and just transition mechanisms is therefore essential for sustaining CCPI improvements and achieving IPCC- and SDG-consistent outcomes. The study concludes that integrating CCPI metrics into national climate governance can enhance transparency, accelerate policy delivery, and position Greece as a regional model for integrated climate action in the Eastern Mediterranean. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI); Greece; Climate Governance; Renewable Energy Transition; Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). |
| JEL: | Q38 Q4 Q48 Q50 Q53 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–10–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126476 |
| By: | Holloway, Jasper; Blythe, Leander; Wiśniewski, Jakub; Nguyễn, Thảo |
| Abstract: | Environmental sustainability in Europe is influenced by a complex interplay of socioeconomic development, education, and public policy interventions. This literature review examines how income levels, urbanization, industrial activity, and educational attainment affect CO₂ emissions, with a focus on the role of primary and secondary education in shaping environmental behaviors. Evidence indicates that well-designed policy measures—including emissions regulations, renewable energy incentives, urban planning reforms, and environmental education programs—can mitigate environmental pressures, particularly when integrated with socioeconomic and educational factors. The review also identifies gaps in long-term policy evaluation, the interaction of multiple determinants, and disparities across regions and populations. Findings provide insights for policymakers and researchers seeking to develop integrated strategies that reduce CO₂ emissions, promote sustainable development, and ensure equitable environmental outcomes across European countries. |
| Keywords: | CO₂ emissions, environmental sustainability, socioeconomic determinants, education, Europe |
| JEL: | I0 I1 I10 |
| Date: | 2025–09–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126186 |
| By: | Tanrıverdi Yaşar, Nebahat |
| Abstract: | Once viewed by Ankara primarily as a fragmented security frontier, Iraq now sits at the centre of its regional strategy. This recalibration is shaped by shifting regional dynamics in the aftermath of 7 October: the weakening of Iran's influence across multiple fronts, the Gulf states' rising economic and diplomatic weight, and the search for new stabilising axes in the Middle East. Turkey's renewed engagement is not just about countering the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) - it signals broader regional aspirations that combines security cooperation with Baghdad and Erbil, a fragile domestic peace process in Turkey, and a strategic push to embed Iraq within Turkey-Gulf trade and key regional energy infrastructures, including oil pipelines, prospective gas exports, and electricity interconnections. At the heart of this shift is a geoeconomic logic: by investing in shared infrastructure and fostering mutual interdependencies, Ankara seeks to consolidate its regional role. For Europe, the outcome will reverberate beyond Iraq by reshaping connectivity, energy access, and the stability of its south-eastern neighbours. |
| Keywords: | Turkey, Iraq, Gulf states, Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Recep Tayyip Erdoægan, Persian Gulf, oil pipelines, prospective gas exports, electricity interconnections |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:329920 |
| By: | Julien Allard (UMONS - Université de Mons = University of Mons); María Victoria Gasca (G2Elab-SYREL - G2Elab-SYstèmes et Réseaux ELectriques - G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Rémy Rigo-Mariani (G2Elab-SYREL - G2Elab-SYstèmes et Réseaux ELectriques - G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); François Vallée (UMONS - Université de Mons = University of Mons); Zacharie de Grève (UMONS - Université de Mons = University of Mons); Vincent Debusschere (Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, G2Elab-SYREL - G2Elab-SYstèmes et Réseaux ELectriques - G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | The potential of Energy Communities (ECs) to foster local private investment in renewable energy production has been highlighted in various recent studies. Almost all these works assume that all investment decisions are taken at year 1, as well as static EC memberships throughout its lifetime. However, as part of a wider energy system, ECs may see their composition evolve with time as founding members may leave or other end-users may join. This uncertainty on the EC's dynamic composition induces uncertainty on the real cost savings of its members. From this perspective, this work aims at quantifying the impact of newcomers on the profits from investments decided by founding members. To this end, an initial optimal sizing problem is solved before processing a Monte-Carlo analysis on the ECs composition's evolution. Results collected on a test case composed of 92 end-users show that founding members can lose up to 25% of their expected savings by welcoming new members if no recourse actions are taken on top of the initial optimal investment |
| Date: | 2025–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05310549 |
| By: | Shih, Jhih-Shyang (Resources for the Future); Ziegler, Ethan (Resources for the Future); Krupnick, Alan (Resources for the Future); Hafstead, Marc (Resources for the Future); Bergman, Aaron (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | The steel industry, accounting for approximately 7–9 percent of global CO2 emissions, is a critical sector for industrial decarbonization. Transitioning from coal-based blast furnaces to low-carbon pathways such as hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) and electrified furnaces offers significant mitigation potential while reducing exposure to carbon pricing and trade measures. This study develops a low-carbon steel production (LCSP) optimization model to support industry practitioners and policymakers in strategic planning for sustainable decarbonization. The model incorporates natural gas- and hydrogen-based DRI ironmaking, scrap-DRI blending in electric arc furnaces, and life cycle CO2 emissions and impurity considerations to ensure product quality requirements are met at minimum cost. The current framework is a deterministic, single-period linear programming model with decision variables including DRI feedstock blending ratios and scrap steel-(new) DRI steelmaking proportions. The objective function minimizes net system costs by accounting for revenues, operational expenditures, CO2 offset and capture costs, and renewable energy credits. The LCSP model is implemented in the GAMS programming language and provides a flexible platform for assessing trade-offs between cost, emissions, and material quality in low-carbon steelmaking. See https://www.gams.com. |
| Date: | 2025–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-25-23 |
| By: | Pierre Cotterlaz (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Christophe C. Gouel (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, IFPRI - International Food Policy Research Institute [Washington] - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the evolution of France's carbon footprint from 2000 to 2014, with a particular focus on the role of international trade. During this period, France's territorial emissions decreased by 18%, yet its consumption-based footprint declined by only 5%. This divergence reflects an increase in emissions embedded in imports, which grew from 45% to 54% of the total. To analyze these dynamics, we develop a novel structural decomposition framework that disentangles the contributions of scale, composition, and technique effects from a consumption perspective. Our approach extends existing methods by explicitly distinguishing between domestic and foreign influences, and by separately analyzing trade openness and the geographic reallocation of imports. The results highlight the dominance of the technique effect in reducing emissions (-28%), driven primarily by efficiency improvements abroad rather than domestic progress. By contrast, the geographic composition effect substantially increased emissions (+18%), particularly before 2008, when France's import sourcing shifted toward more carbon-intensive trading partners such as China. France's situation is emblematic of economies that have already achieved relatively low domestic emissions—through nuclear energy and de-industrialization—and have thus become increasingly dependent on foreign improvements for further reductions. This reliance raises concerns about the externalization of mitigation outcomes and underscores the limits of climate strategies focused solely on territorial emissions. Our findings call for stronger coordination between trade and climate policies to ensure that future decarbonization pathways remain consistent with global mitigation objectives. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude analyse l'évolution de l'empreinte carbone de la France entre 2000 et 2014, en mettant l'accent sur le rôle du commerce international. Alors que les émissions territoriales de la France ont diminué de 18%, son empreinte basée sur la consommation n'a baissé que de 5%, reflétant la croissance des émissions incorporées dans les échanges commerciaux (de 45% à 54% du total). À l'aide d'une nouvelle analyse de décomposition structurelle, nous distinguons les contributions des effets d'échelle, de composition et de technique du point de vue de la consommation. Notre approche améliore les méthodes traditionnelles en différenciant explicitement les influences domestiques et étrangères et en analysant séparément l'ouverture commerciale et la réallocation géographique des flux commerciaux. Les résultats soulignent la prédominance de l'effet technique dans la réduction des émissions (-28%), principalement due aux améliorations d'efficacité à l'étranger. Cependant, la composition géographique a considérablement augmenté les émissions (+18%), notamment par des réorientations vers des partenaires commerciaux à forte intensité carbone avant 2008. Ce schéma—où les réductions d'émissions dépendent de plus en plus des améliorations étrangères—préfigure probablement ce qui attend d'autres économies développées à mesure que la décarbonation domestique progresse, suggérant un besoin accru de coordination des politiques commerciales et climatiques. |
| Keywords: | Technique effects, Structural decomposition analysis, Scale, Carbon footprint, Consumption-based accounting, France, composition, Comptabilité basée sur la consommation, Effets échelle, composition et technique, Analyse de décomposition structurelle, Empreinte carbone |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05298449 |