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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Megan Yeo; Sebastian Nosenzo; Sichen Shawn Chao; Ashley Nunes |
| Abstract: | Enabling battery technology has not achieved sufficient maturity to facilitate electric flight for all aircraft models across all distances. Consequently, existing discourse emphasizes electrifying short haul routes using smaller, lighter aircraft. Does this emphasis have merit. We estimate a model that addresses this question. Our findings are fourfold. First, we find that current energy density limitations impede short haul electric flight, regardless of aircraft model utilized. Second, we document that electrifying smaller, lighter aircraft models serving short haul routes may be particularly challenging as these aircraft require more, not less, acute increases in energy density. Third, we identify a subset of larger, heavier aircraft as better candidates for electrification and note that doing so could prevent the annual release of significant amounts of carbon dioxide equivalent. However, we observe that the regional benefits of electrification are highly heterogeneous. The largest emissions benefit is realized in Europe, followed by South America, North America, Oceania and Africa. Electrification flights originating in Asia produces a net increase in carbon emissions owing to the disproportionate share of miles claimed by Asian countries with a more carbon intensive electrical grid. Indian emissions warrant scrutiny, as its emissions contribution most disproportionately exceeds its mileage contribution. The implications of these findings for decarbonization policy are subsequently discussed. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.15075 |
| By: | Hanzhe Xing; John Miles; Stuart Ashley Scott |
| Keywords: | Additionality, green hydrogen, power system model, curtailment, variable renewable energy |
| JEL: | D24 H23 L94 Q42 Q47 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2517 |
| By: | Clay, Karen (Carnegie Mellon University); Jha, Akshaya (Carnegie Mellon University); Lewis, Joshua (University of Montreal); Severnini, Edson (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the evolution of US carbon emissions and discusses the main factors that contributed to the historical carbon emissions rollercoaster. We divide the discussion into four periods – up to 1920, 1920-1960, 1960-2005 and after 2005. For each period, we discuss the main drivers of national carbon emissions. We then discuss trends in carbon emissions in the electricity sector. Electricity sector emissions were initially very small, but would become the largest source of US carbon emissions over the period 1980-2015, and the largest contributor to decarbonization since 2007. In the final section, we distill lessons from the U.S. experience that may inform decarbonization strategies in developing economies. |
| Keywords: | environmental regulation, electricity sector, energy transition, decarbonization, carbon emissions, clean air act, climate policy |
| JEL: | N72 Q31 Q48 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18008 |
| By: | Basaglia, Piero; Isaksen, Elisabeth; Sato, Misato |
| Abstract: | Carbon pricing is often paired with compensation to carbon-intensive firms to mitigate the risk of carbon leakage. This paper empirically examines the effects of indirect carbon cost compensation on UK manufacturing firms. Using administrative microdata, we combine difference-in-differences and fuzzy regression discontinuity designs to exploit firm-level eligibility criteria and identify the causal impact of compensation. We find that compensation reduces output contraction but also increases electricity consumption and emissions. These findings highlight a key policy trade-off – while compensation can help protect firms’ competitiveness and reduce leakage risks, it may also delay industrial decarbonization and increase the overall cost of achieving national emission targets. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing; compensation; competitiveness; electricity consumption |
| JEL: | Q52 Q58 Q40 Q41 H23 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128813 |
| By: | Bian, Alice; Dikau, Simon; Miller, Hugh; Pierfederici, Roberta; Stern, Nicholas; Ward, Bob |
| Abstract: | As the world’s largest trading nation, China holds a dominant position in global green manufacturing, particularly through the development of the so-called ‘new three’ clean energy technologies – that is, electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and solar panels. There are tremendous opportunities for emerging markets and developing countries to improve their integration into global supply chains for clean energy technologies by leveraging intra-regional trade that boosts their manufacturing competitiveness and exports of higher-value-added products. This policy insight seeks to evaluate China’s role in supply chains for renewable energy technologies, and how the country can support the energy transition in other countries, particularly those in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). |
| Keywords: | ASEAN; Asia; Association of Southeast Asian Nations; batteries; Belt and Road Initiative; China; China ETS; clean energy; climate finance; electric vehicles; international agreement; international climate finance; Just Energy Transition Partnerships; manufacturing; net zero transition plan; regional comprehensive economic partnership; South-east Asia; supply chains; transition-critical materials |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–02–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129230 |
| By: | Lucien Genge; Felix M\"usgens |
| Abstract: | Green ammonia is emerging as a strategic intermediary within green energy supply chains, serving effectively as both an industrial commodity and hydrogen carrier. This study provides a techno-economic analysis of green ammonia supply chains, comparing cost-effective pathways from global production to European consumers, and evaluates ammonia alongside alternative hydrogen carriers. Gaseous hydrogen consistently remains the most economical import option for Europe, though ammonia holds a narrowing cost advantage over liquid hydrogen (from 16 % in 2030 to 10 % by 2040). Competitive ammonia suppliers, notably Morocco, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates, benefit from low renewable energy costs, with significant price reductions expected by 2040, driven by falling costs for electricity, electrolysers, and conversion technologies. Optimal transport modes vary by consumer demand and distance: trucks are ideal for low demands at all distances, rail for medium ranges, and pipelines for high-demand scenarios. By 2040, ammonia will primarily serve direct-use applications, as hydrogen consumers increasingly shift to direct hydrogen supplies. Policymakers should prioritize pipeline infrastructure for hydrogen distribution, cautiously invest in ammonia's short- to medium-term infrastructure advantages, and limit long-term reliance on ammonia as a hydrogen carrier to mitigate stranded asset risks. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.02412 |
| By: | Apoorva Bademi; Miriam Stevens; Isha Sura; Shweta Singh |
| Abstract: | There is a projected increase in offshore wind energy generation in the United States over the next three decades, driven by legislative commitments and government funding. Like other renewable technologies, the construction of offshore wind farms has environmental impacts and spillover effects that must be assessed. Developing offshore wind as a reliable domestic energy source requires a multiregional analysis of economic and environmental effects of constructing projects along lakefronts and coastal regions. Although no commercial offshore wind farms currently operate in the United States, seven states have announced capacity commitments exceeding 28 gigawatts by 2035. This study evaluates the spatial economic and environmental impacts of planned projects by linking the National Renewable Energy Laboratory Offshore Renewables Balance-of-system Installation Tool (ORBIT) with a multiregional input-output model of the U.S. economy developed in the Virtual Industrial Ecology Lab. ORBIT provides capital investment requirements for installation, which are combined with the model to estimate economic spillover effects. Environmental impacts are assessed using a newly developed multiregional greenhouse gas emissions dataset for the U.S. to capture supply chain emissions of offshore wind construction. The five projects analyzed require 16.3 billion dollars in capital investment and generate 27.6 billion dollars in direct and indirect economic impacts across the country. Emissions results show that states active in energy generation are most affected, but impacts can be reduced by decarbonizing the grid. A carbon payback analysis indicates the projects offset construction-phase emissions in less than a year. The framework highlights which states experience the greatest spillover effects in terms of emissions and economic activity required to support offshore wind expansion. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.15012 |
| By: | Carattini, Stefano; Huang, Hanwei; Pisch, Frank; Singh, Tejendra Pratap |
| Abstract: | Although the environmental impact of trade has been a long-standing concern, there is still only scant evidence on the channels through which international market access affects pollution. In this paper, we exploit the unique episode of China's world market integration in the early 2000s to provide direct empirical evidence on three such mechanisms. We combine granular satellite data on air pollution with detailed information on manufacturing firms and coal power plants, and leverage exogenous foreign demand shocks for identification. Three main findings emerge: exporting firms reduce local pollution (scope-1); pollution levels around coal power plants rise due to regional export shocks (scope-2); and upstream suppliers reduce pollution in the face of export demand shocks to downstream firms (scope-3). Our findings point to China's reliance on coal power plants to fuel its export-driven growth as one of the main drivers of the rise in pollution. |
| Keywords: | Trade, pollution, satellite, supply chain, coal power plants, electricity |
| JEL: | D22 F18 F64 H23 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:econwp:2025:04 |
| By: | Fries, Christian P. |
| Abstract: | This paper applies concepts from mathematical finance to the analysis of climate change mitigation costs and policy design. We define three metrics: an implied CO2-price based on the total discounted cost of abatement and damages; a carbon interest rate, representing the internal rate of return of abatement actions; and a fair share of GDP to support effort-based climate funding. These metrics provide ex post evaluations of optimal emission pathways in integrated assessment models (IAMs), offering a descriptive framework for understanding the cost structure of climate policy. In addition, we extend an integrated assessment model by incorporating a climate transformation fund, funded by a fixed GDP share, a CO2-price, or a mix) and that finances climate-related costs over time. This extension improves intergenerational equity. We consider the general case of a stochastic model. Our numerical experiments on a classical (deterministic) DICE model show that the implied CO2-price is a factor of 10 larger than the classical social cost of carbon (a marginal price) and that the implied share of GDP is roughly 3 %. However, the model exhibits substantial intergenerational inequality. Introducing a climate transformation fund, our numerical result shows that roughly 2.4 % of the GDP is sufficient to cover all climate mitigation costs (including abatement and damage cost), equally distributing the burden among all generations. This intergenerational equitable climate change mitigation results in only a modest reduction of the GDP or consumption (significantly smaller than the funding rate). Analysing a stochastic extension of a DICE model, we see that the presence of a climate transformation fund significantly reduces the convexity and volatility of the cost structure. |
| Keywords: | Integrated Assessment Models; CO₂-Price; Social Cost of Carbon; Carbon Interest Rate; Interest Rate of Carbon; Intergenerational Equity; Fair Share of GDP; Climate Transformation Fund; Stochastic IAM, Convexity |
| JEL: | D58 H43 Q51 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–12–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125821 |
| By: | Wan, Lu; Zhou, Yanxi; Wang, Ying; Zhao, Tiantian |
| Abstract: | Following the “dual carbon” goals in 2021, which emphasize achieving the carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutral by 2060, China introduced a “dual circulation” strategy to connect domestic and international trade. Leveraging the quantile regression model, this study examines the impact of green total factor productivity, trade penetration, foreign direct investment, and sustainable finance on carbon emissions (CO2). Furthermore, a mediating model is established from another perspective to discover the mechanism, respectively, testing how trade, foreign direct investment, and sustainable finance affect carbon emissions via green total factor productivity. The findings indicate that green total factor productivity exerts an inverted “U-shaped” effect on carbon emissions within a certain threshold of the total CO2 volume. While the relationship between the green total factor productivity and CO2 becomes a significant “U-shaped” when the total CO2 goes beyond a certain level. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment penetration and sustainable finance contribute positively to carbon emissions reduction, whereas trade penetration notably increases carbon emissions. Transition mechanisms with international cooperation, trade penetration, foreign direct investment penetration, and sustainable finance also affect CO2 through the green total factor productivity channel. As suggested, China should tailor its low-carbon transition strategies, drawing on global insights and considering its unique national development. Broadly, efficiency in the production process and low-carbon transition are preferred (i.e. improved green total factor productivity), which will balance economic development and environmental protection. The adoption and promotion of a consistent framework for sustainable finance are crucial, as they help enterprises in developing countries access more global sustainable finance. This study also notes that participating more in international trade that embodies low-carbon concepts and introducing green foreign direct investment helps developing countries improve resource efficiency and productivity. |
| Keywords: | carbon peak; correlation; green total factor productivity; sustainable finance; trade penetration |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129148 |
| By: | Bryan, Calvin; Donovan, Pierce; Kacker, Kanishka; Pham, Linh |
| Abstract: | Fabra and Imelda (2023) study how the method of payment for renewable energy can reduce the ability of energy producers to exert market power in electricity markets. Their theoretical model provides predictions for dominant and fringe firm behavior under incentives using fixed prices or market exposure. Across several reported specifications, they measure the price depressing effects under both economic instruments. The authors find that in the case of the Spanish electricity market, fixed prices for renewables mitigate market power more than exposure to market pricing. We successfully computationally reproduce 100% of the main claims of the paper. We then explore the robustness of these findings to a placebo event test and modeling choices concerning seasonality and sample selection. These robustness checks typically replicate the main findings of the original paper in sign, but consistently reduce the magnitude and statistical significance of measured results. |
| Keywords: | market power, forward contracts, arbitrage, renewables |
| JEL: | L13 L94 L98 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:258 |
| By: | Kirill Borissov; Nigar Hashimzade |
| Abstract: | We examine a green transition policy involving a tax on brown goods in an economy where preferences for green consumption consist of a constant intrinsic individual component and an evolving social component. We analyse equilibrium dynamics when social preferences exert a positive externality in green consumption, creating complementarity between policy and preferences. The results show that accounting for this externality allows for a lower tax rate compared to policy ignoring the social norm effects. Furthermore, stability conditions permit gradual tax reductions or even removal along the transition path, minimising welfare losses. Thus, incorporating policy-preference interactions improves green transition policy design. |
| Keywords: | climate change, endogenous preferences, green transition, social norms, temporary policies |
| JEL: | H23 H31 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12020 |
| By: | Ben Youssef, Slim |
| Abstract: | We consider the relationships between military expenditures, arms imports, political stability, oil exports, gross domestic product, and greenhouse gas emissions in a panel of six oil-exporting countries of the Gulf region and annual data ranging from 2000 to 2023. Second-generation panel unit root and cointegration tests are used because of the cross-sectional dependence between our considered variables. The cross-sectional distributed lag (CS-DL) methodology is performed to estimate our long-run coefficients. Several novel results are highlighted. In the long-run, arms imports increase political stability and economic growth. While military expenditures increase oil exports, arms imports slightly reduce them. Oil exports increase military expenditures but reduce arms imports. Political stability reduces military expenditures and increases gross domestic product. These oil-exporting Gulf countries are advised to reinforce their military efforts, in particular by planning the production of high-tech weapons, to improve their oil exports and thus their gross domestic product. Economic growth combined with political stability enables them to become producing and exporting renewable energy countries through adequate energy efficiency and renewable energy strategies. |
| Keywords: | Military expenditures; arms imports; political stability; oil exports; cross-sectional distributed lag; Gulf countries. |
| JEL: | C33 H56 O53 Q37 |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125364 |
| By: | Anthony Wiskich |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the potential long-run effects of autonomous and electric vehicles, and a carbon tax, on personal domestic aviation demand in Australia. We estimate a discrete choice disutility model with two travel modes – car and air – using Australian National Visitor Survey data and Bayesian priors. We use multiplicative Fréchet errors, consistent with a constant elasticity of substitution utility function for a representative consumer of both modes. An elasticity of substitution of almost 4 replicates the observed transition to air travel as distances increase. Combining in turn electrification, autonomy, the use of overnight robotaxis, a 10 kph increase in average car speeds, and an AUS$200/tCO2e carbon tax leads to air passenger reductions of 5%, 19%, 22%, 28% and 43%, respectively. Reductions are highest for shorter flights, so aggregate emissions do not decline as much as passenger numbers, while the number of aircraft trips declines more. |
| Keywords: | aviation economics, autonomous vehicles, decarbonisation, discrete choice travel model |
| JEL: | O33 Q40 Q54 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-48 |
| By: | Nicholls, Mark |
| Abstract: | One of the defining features of the just transition is its potential to maximise the social opportunities of climate action, including by creating employment. In India, Ayana Renewable Power is combining the social need for decent work with business self-interest by developing skills development programmes for local people so they can participate in the growing clean energy economy – which in the country as a whole is set to generate hundreds of thousands of new jobs. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129022 |
| By: | Aldy, Joseph E. (Resources for the Future); Reinhardt, Forest L.; Stavins, Robert (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | There is growing recognition of the relative importance of anthropogenic emissions of methane as a contributor to global climate change. An important source of such emissions in some countries, including the United States, is the oil and gas (O&G) sector. This points to the importance of developing understanding of the marginal abatement cost functions for methane emissions reductions. Scholars have employed a diverse set of methodologies to estimate abatement costs, including engineering cost models, econometric analysis of natural gas markets, and statistical retrospective analysis of state-level regulation. We critically examine these approaches and synthesize their results. We find significant potential for low-cost methane abatement in the O&G sector in the United States and elsewhere, although claims of widespread negative abatement cost opportunities should be taken with a grain of salt. We also find that the potential for low-cost abatement is not without limit. Whereas it appears that cutting methane emissions in half would be relatively inexpensive, a sharp uptick in marginal abatement cost may occur when reductions exceed 60 to 80 percent below baseline levels. This threshold may change over time with technological advances in remote sensing, which can reduce abatement costs at various levels of ambition.Key Words: methane emissions; marginal abatement cost; climate change.JEL Classification Codes: Q52, Q54, Q58. |
| Date: | 2025–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-25-20 |
| By: | Orr Shahar; Stefan Lessmann; Daniel Traian Pele |
| Abstract: | Relationships between the energy and the finance markets are increasingly important. Understanding these relationships is vital for policymakers and other stakeholders as the world faces challenges such as satisfying humanity's increasing need for energy and the effects of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the causal effect of electricity market liberalization on the electricity price in the US. By performing this analysis, we aim to provide new insights into the ongoing debate about the benefits of electricity market liberalization. We introduce Causal Machine Learning as a new approach for interventions in the energy-finance field. The development of machine learning in recent years opened the door for a new branch of machine learning models for causality impact, with the ability to extract complex patterns and relationships from the data. We discuss the advantages of causal ML methods and compare the performance of ML-based models to shed light on the applicability of causal ML frameworks to energy policy intervention cases. We find that the DeepProbCP framework outperforms the other frameworks examined. In addition, we find that liberalization of, and individual players' entry to, the electricity market resulted in a 7% decrease in price in the short term. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.12331 |
| By: | Nicholls, Mark |
| Abstract: | The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has provided innovative financing to support ENGIE Chile’s ambitious energy transition, reinforcing the company’s social policies and processes to help ensure its transition is just and socially responsible. |
| Keywords: | case studies; development finance; energy; global |
| JEL: | R14 J01 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129015 |
| By: | Kyle C. Meng; Vincent Thivierge |
| Abstract: | The central appeal of environmental markets – efficient allocation of emission reductions – has been difficult to establish empirically. We develop a framework linking the theoretical change in allocative efficiency following a market-based policy to a quasi-experimental estimator. We apply this framework with administrative data to two major U.S. air pollution markets. We find allocative efficiency for pollution improved by 3.3 percentage points annually under California’s RECLAIM program but do not detect a change under the U.S.’ NOx Budget Trading Program. These results are supported by greater heterogeneity in baseline facility characteristics under RECLAIM and differences in program implementation. |
| JEL: | D61 Q50 Q52 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34111 |
| By: | Burke, Josh; Mercer, Leo |
| Abstract: | This report consists of a response made on behalf of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment in August 2024 to the ‘Integrating Greenhouse Gas Removals in the UK Emissions Trading Scheme’ joint consultation of the UK Government, the Scottish Government, the Welsh Government and the Department of Agriculture, Environment and Rural Affairs for Northern Ireland. The consultation document is available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/consultati ons/integrating-greenhouse-gas-removals- in-the-uk-emissions-trading-scheme. |
| Keywords: | UK ETS; BECCS; carbon accounting; carbon credits; carbon market; DACCS; emission trading; GGR |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–08–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129080 |
| By: | Matthew A. Tarduno; Reed Walker |
| Abstract: | This paper explores whether misperceptions about air pollution contribute to environmental inequality in the United States. We use a two-part survey experiment to elicit respondents' beliefs about local air quality and pollution's effects on life expectancy. We document how misperception differs across demographic groups and then how this misperception affects willingness to pay (WTP) for cleaner air. Since misperception or beliefs may be correlated with other unobservable determinants of WTP, we randomly show selected participants customized information about their actual air pollution. This allows us to trace out how experimentally induced changes in beliefs affect WTP for air quality. Our results suggest significant misperceptions about air pollution in the US. Respondents, on average, overestimate both their air pollution exposure and its impact on life expectancy. Beliefs about relative air pollution are not systematically biased but are noisy. Despite some differences in misperceptions between Black and White respondents, counterfactual exercises do not suggest that rectifying these misperceptions would meaningfully close the observed gap in WTP and/or pollution exposure. |
| JEL: | H4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34116 |
| By: | Scheer, Antonina |
| Abstract: | This is a response to a call for submissions issued by the UN Secretary-General’s Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals to help the Panel develop stronger and clearer principles and actionable recommendations for guidance to stakeholders across the critical energy transition minerals value chains and speed up their implementation. The Panel made this call for submissions to inform its development of principles and actionable recommendations for implementation under four different workstreams, which will feed into ‘final overarching outcomes’ ahead of the UN General Assembly in September 2024. |
| Keywords: | capital markets; development finance; institutional investors; energy; industry; global; financial instruments and strategies; policy; regulation |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129014 |
| By: | Robin Boadway; Katherine Cuff |
| Abstract: | We explore the efficiency of alternate allocations of responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions pricing policies in a small open economy federation. Emissions result from consumption and production of a tradeable dirty good, and their intensity depends on the emissions technology. National emissions have an imperceptible effect on global warming, so preferences for control are based on social norms which can differ depending on the allocation of policy responsibility. Policies include emissions taxes and permit trading systems. The costs of collecting emission taxes and administering a permit trading system are lower for the regional governments that the federal government because of informational advantages. Unlike the regions, the federal government internalizes the social costs of emissions borne by both regions. Both federal and regional optimal emission pricing policies are variants of Pigovian taxes. When regional governments are responsible for emissions policy and the federal government makes interregional income transfers, the timing of government decisions affects policies. |
| Keywords: | fiscal federalism, global warming, greenhouse gas pricing |
| JEL: | H23 H7 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12048 |
| By: | Paola DOrazio; Torsten Schmidt; Maximilian Dirks |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates climate-related transition risks in the financial sectors of Botswana, Namibia, Mozambique and South Africa, focusing on exposure to carbon-intensive industries and the macrofinancial transmission of transition shocks. Drawing on sectoral loan allocation data, greenhouse gas emissions and transition risk metrics, the analysis applies the Climate Policy Relevant Sectors taxonomy, loan carbon intensity and a transition risk index to quantify financial sector vulnerabilities across the four economies. To assess the macrofinancial effects of transition risk shocks, a set of country-specific Bayesian vector autoregression models is estimated. The results reveal heterogeneous responses: while transition shocks lead to current account deterioration in Namibia and South Africa, trade volumes show resilience or expansion, particularly in Botswana. Credit supply and non-performing loans respond only modestly, with financial sector effects remaining limited and sensitive to identification strategies. The findings underscore the importance of integrating transition risk into financial supervisory frameworks. Enhancing climate-related prudential regulation through improved risk disclosure, stress testing and capital requirements for high-carbon exposures can strengthen financial system resilience and facilitate the reallocation of capital towards low-emission sectors. Aligning domestic regulatory practices with international climate finance standards will be essential to mitigate systemic risks and ensure stability during the transition to a low-carbon economy. |
| Date: | 2025–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:wpaper:11085 |
| By: | Gilbert E. Metcalf |
| Abstract: | Informational nudges to encourage energy conservation or load shifting have been tried in various contexts. This paper studies a program run by a small municipally owned electric utility to reduce demand on certain peak demand days. An email alert is sent out to residential customers who sign up for the alerts. Some recipients of those alerts forward the alerts to other customers or community groups, making it difficult to determine how broadly the alerts are disseminated. The alerts encourage load shifting and energy saving during specific hours on the following day. Using hourly load data for the utility, I estimate the reduction in electricity load caused by the alert emails. Using an instrumental variables approach, estimates suggest that load is reduced by roughly 0.7 MWs per hour during the hours covered by the alert. This works out to a reduction in load on the order of 2 percent. I calculate the cost savings to the municipal utility and discuss social and private benefits of the program. The private benefits of the peak alert program swamp the social benefits. |
| JEL: | Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34089 |
| By: | Wang, Jodi Ann; Robins, Nick |
| Abstract: | This report consists of a submission by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment on different elements of the UNFCCC work programme on just transition pathways (JTWP). Agreement on the JTWP at COP27 marked a significant step forward for delivering climate action in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Since COP28, the political profile of the just transition has risen among high-level political actors, decision-makers, and civil society stakeholders. The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and Environment and our new Just Transition Finance Lab welcome the new programme as a strategic tool for mainstreaming social justice throughout climate decision-making at all levels, everywhere. In this submission, we provide views on work to be undertaken, along with possible topics for dialogues, under the JTWP. The submission is a follow-up to Professor Nick Robins’ presentation at the ‘First Annual High-level Ministerial roundtable on just transition’, which was held on 3 December 2023 at COP28 in Dubai. |
| Keywords: | COP27; COP28; just transition; Just Transition Finance Lab; just transition pathways; Just Transition Work Programme; UAE; United Arab Emirates |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129177 |
| By: | Andrianady, Josué R. |
| Abstract: | This study tests the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in Madagascar using time-series data from 1990 to 2015. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and Granger causality tests, we analyze the nexus between CO$_2$ emissions, economic growth, agricultural production, and trade openness. Results confirm a U-shaped EKC, with economic growth initially reducing emissions before increasing at higher income levels. Trade openness marginally reduces emissions, while agricultural production has no significant impact. Granger causality tests indicate that economic growth drives emissions. Policy recommendations include promoting trade in environmentally friendly goods and investing in clean energy to mitigate emissions. |
| Keywords: | EKC Hypothesis, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Economic Growth, ARDL, Granger Causality, Madagascar |
| JEL: | A1 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125625 |
| By: | Barmes, David; Bosch, Jordi Schröder |
| Abstract: | Climate change, environmental degradation, and global energy markets are all sources of price instability, with important implications for inflation forecasting and macroeconomic policy. Central banks will have to deepen their understanding of these drivers of inflation and adapt their policymaking accordingly, recognising that achieving environmental targets is necessary to avoid persistent environmentrelated macroeconomic instability. While primary responsibility for the transition to a sustainable economy lies with fiscal, industrial, and environmental authorities, new approaches to monetary policy and improved inflation forecasting should support these efforts. Energy’s relevance to price stability is widely acknowledged, as fossil fuel prices driving inflation (‘fossilflation’) is a longstanding phenomenon, most recently triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The inflationary effects of climate change (‘climateflation’) and environmental degradation in a modern context are comparatively novel though increasingly pronounced. Climateflation, which is global in nature yet borne disproportionately by lower income households and countries, occurs primarily through reductions in agricultural activity and damage to crop yields. As environmental disruptions intensify, they will play an increasingly significant role in driving price instability. In this context, orthodox monetary policy is counterproductive to achieving price stability, as well as governments’ economic, social and environmental objectives. Increasing interest rates fails to address the core drivers of rising energy and food prices, disproportionately hampers investment in capital-intensive green projects, and reduces government’s fiscal space. Instead, central banks should factor environmental considerations into the conduct of monetary policy and explore greater macroeconomic policy coordination with fiscal and industrial authorities. New international monetary arrangements will also be necessary to secure price stability and a just transition. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129176 |
| By: | Scheer, Antonina; Robins, Nick |
| Abstract: | Extraction is at the heart of the just transition challenge: both a just phaseout of coal mining and a just expansion of mining for minerals critical to the low-carbon transition are required. The scale and complexity of this task requires informed and proactive investor participation in shifting the mining sector towards more sustainable and equitable practices. This report takes forward a sector-specific approach to elaborate the priorities for a just transition in the mining sector and the levers that investors have at their disposal to drive action. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–08–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129013 |
| By: | Johannes Gessner; Andreas Gerster; Michael Kramm |
| Abstract: | There is growing evidence that households often forgo profitable energy efficiency retrofits, partly due to inattention and imperfect information about their economic benefits. We conduct an incentivized survey experiment to evaluate both the effecƟveness and the welfare implicaƟons of a widely used policy tool aimed at addressing this issue: providing information from an energy efficiency audit. In our incentivized experiment, participants in the treatment group receive personalized information about the potential cost savings from retrofitting their heating systems, while those in the control group do not receive such information. Our results show that providing this information does not increase the average willingness to pay for a retrofit. |
| Keywords: | information provision, nudge, welfare, heterogeneity, incentivized survey experiment, energy efficiency |
| JEL: | C93 D83 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_696 |
| By: | Felix K\"ubler; Simon Scheidegger; Oliver Surbek |
| Abstract: | We develop a computational framework for deriving Pareto-improving and constrained optimal carbon tax rules in a stochastic overlapping generations (OLG) model with climate change. By integrating Deep Equilibrium Networks for fast policy evaluation and Gaussian process surrogate modeling with Bayesian active learning, the framework systematically locates optimal carbon tax schedules for heterogeneous agents exposed to climate risk. We apply our method to a 12-period OLG model in which exogenous shocks affect the carbon intensity of energy production, as well as the damage function. Constrained optimal carbon taxes consist of tax rates that are simple functions of observables and revenue-sharing rules that guarantee that the introduction of the taxes is Pareto improving. This reveals that a straightforward policy is highly effective: a Pareto-improving linear tax on cumulative emissions alone yields a 0.42% aggregate welfare gain in consumption-equivalent terms while adding further complexity to the tax provides only a marginal increase to 0.45%. The application demonstrates that the proposed approach produces scalable tools for macro-policy design in complex stochastic settings. Beyond climate economics, the framework offers a template for systematically analyzing welfare-improving policies in various heterogeneous-agent problems. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.01704 |
| By: | Dirk Bergemann (Yale University); Marina Bertolini (University of Padova); Marta Castellini (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and University of Padova); Michele Moretto (University of Padova); Sergio Vergalli (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and University of Brescia) |
| Abstract: | A municipality (social planner) is seeking to establish a renewable energy community paying the initial investment costs, while also identifying the optimal management framework. In this context, two distinct modes of governance are analyzed: the private and the public one. In the first case, a private (or profit) aggregator oversees the energy community with a monopolistic behavior, while in the other the aggregator is a public owned, or controlled, company following the social approach advocated by the promoter, i.e the municipality. In both scenarios, the effective functioning of the community requires the collection of private data on membersÕ energy consumption. This process allows for optimal management of the community, but also results in a loss of privacy for members. The model incorporates this as a dis-utility, assuming that the members address the portion of their energy needs not covered by the communityÕs production by purchasing energy from the manager at a price determined on the basis of the information collected. In addition, the aggregator is allowed to sell the collected data to third parties for financial gain. By integrating the membersÕ energy valuation and incorporating uncertainty regarding the investment cost, we examine policy recommendations aimed at establishing a community size closer to the social optimum. |
| Date: | 2025–07–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2452 |
| By: | Abbink, Marieke (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Kenis, Patrick (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:de72b2b1-8994-4a65-ad4d-9ab1edb115bd |
| By: | Zorana Grbac; Simone Pavarana; Thorsten Schmidt; Peter Tankov |
| Abstract: | We introduce a new mean-field game framework to analyze the impact of carbon pricing in a multi-sector economy with defaultable firms. Each sector produces a homogeneous good, with its price endogenously determined through market clearing. Firms act as price takers and maximize profits by choosing an optimal allocation of inputs-including labor, emissions, and intermediate goods from other sectors-while interacting through the endogenous sectoral price. Firms also choose their default timing to maximize shareholder value. Formally, we model the economy as an optimal stopping mean-field game within each sector. The resulting system of coupled mean-field games admits a linear programming formulation that characterizes Nash equilibria in terms of population measure flows. We prove the existence of a linear programming Nash equilibrium and establish uniqueness of the associated price system. Numerical illustrations are presented for firms with constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production functions. In a stylized single-sector economy, carbon price shocks induce substitution between emissions and labor. In a three-sector economy, the manufacturing sector faces consumer demand and requires inputs from a brown sector, which can be increasingly replaced by green-sector goods as carbon prices rise. These experiments reveal that carbon price shocks can generate substantial spillover effects along the value chain, underscoring the importance of sectoral interdependencies in shaping effective decarbonization pathways. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.11353 |
| By: | Daniel Marcel te Kaat; Alexander Raabe; Yuanjie Tian |
| Abstract: | Using granular data on global investment funds in difference-in-differences regressions around the announcement of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), we identify a novel international spillover channel of green industrial policies. Sustainable global investment funds received more inflows upon the act announcement, in turn increasing their cross-border portfolio investments worldwide. Recipient economies better prepared to address climate change benefited most from sustainable global funds' additional investments. Our results are stronger for funds with a larger portfolio share invested in the US and in IRA-targeted industries. Yet, we see strong international spillovers even for non-US domiciled sustainable funds investing entirely outside the US. Thus, global investment funds have become an important conduit for the international spillover of climate policies. |
| Keywords: | sustainable finance, climate policy, industrial policy, cross-border spillover, portfolio reallocation, portfolio capital flows, investment fund, Inflation Reduction Act |
| JEL: | F3 G1 G2 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2025-46 |
| By: | Griffith, Rhianydd; Nicholls, Mark |
| Abstract: | This report explores the barriers and opportunities associated with scaling up net zero investment at the local authority level in the UK. By examining the experiences of two contrasting but ambitious councils, Westminster City Council and Cumberland Council, it aims to identify context-specific opportunities for local net zero projects and how to advance investment readiness, and assesses the enabling policy environment at the two councils. In so doing, it provides insights for those and other local authorities seeking to accelerate their transition to net zero. The project draws on workshops held with investors and council stakeholders, plus analysis from Energy Systems Catapult and the University of Edinburgh. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129011 |
| By: | Arkadiusz Lipiecki; Bartosz Uniejewski |
| Abstract: | Quantifying the uncertainty of forecasting models is essential to assess and mitigate the risks associated with data-driven decisions, especially in volatile domains such as electricity markets. Machine learning methods can provide highly accurate electricity price forecasts, critical for informing the decisions of market participants. However, these models often lack uncertainty estimates, which limits the ability of decision makers to avoid unnecessary risks. In this paper, we propose a novel method for generating probabilistic forecasts from ensembles of point forecasts, called Isotonic Quantile Regression Averaging (iQRA). Building on the established framework of Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA), we introduce stochastic order constraints to improve forecast accuracy, reliability, and computational costs. In an extensive forecasting study of the German day-ahead electricity market, we show that iQRA consistently outperforms state-of-the-art postprocessing methods in terms of both reliability and sharpness. It produces well-calibrated prediction intervals across multiple confidence levels, providing superior reliability to all benchmark methods, particularly coverage-based conformal prediction. In addition, isotonic regularization decreases the complexity of the quantile regression problem and offers a hyperparameter-free approach to variable selection. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.15079 |
| By: | Monnin, Pierre; Feyertag, Joe; Robins, Nick; Wollenweber, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Sovereign bonds are central to aligning finance flows with the net zero transition required to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals. This report aims to understand the system-wide context within which central banks can make a responsible contribution to this alignment. It reviews market innovations and challenges, considers existing practice and sets out robust options for action. |
| Keywords: | central banks; climate finace; climate risk; net zero transition; sovereign bond; sovereign debt |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129233 |
| By: | Virginie Hamm (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières); Fenintsoa Andriamasinoro (BRGM - Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières); Moustapha Mounmemi (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Xavier Galiègue (LEO - Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orleans [2022-...] - UO - Université d'Orléans - UT - Université de Tours - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Xavier Moch (AFPG - Association des professionnels de la géothermie); Frédérik Bugarel (CFG - Compagnie Française de Géothermie); Remi Beaulieu (AMORCE - AMORCE); Muriel Doucet (AgreenTech Valley - Le LAB’O); Thomas Schmit (AgreenTech Valley - Le LAB’O) |
| Abstract: | The Centre Val-de-Loire region sees deep geothermal energy as a virtuous energy solution for the region, but to date it has not been widely deployed. To encourage its use, the region has financed a research project of regional interest, called "AMIGO". The project is being co-ordinated by BRGM in partnership with LEO (Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orléans), AFPG (Association Française des Professionnels de la Géothermie), AMORCE (Association d'accompagnement des collectivités et des acteurs dans la transition énergétique) and AgreenTech Valley (national cluster dedicated to digital technologies for plant-based industries). Its aim is to draw up a set of arguments to help local authorities and private-sector players in the region to choose between the various possible sources of renewable energy for district heating networks, industrial processes or heating crops in greenhouses. To develop this argument, the phases of the project are: (1) to understand the position of the stakeholders with regard to deep geothermal energy, and (2) to gather the key information in the territorial context (socio-economic and environmental aspects of a deep geothermal energy project, information on the geothermal resource, demand for heat in the territory). This article presents the progress made in the process of constructing the argument, in particular the results of (1) the analysis of the positioning of stakeholders in the region and (2) the economic and environmental analysis of a deep geothermal energy project. |
| Abstract: | La géothermie profonde est vue par la région Centre Val-de-Loire comme une solution énergétique vertueuse pour le territoire, cependant, à ce jour, elle y reste peu déployée. Aussi, pour favoriser sa mise en œuvre, la région a financé un projet de recherche d'intérêt régional, appelé « AMIGO ». Ce projet est coordonné par le BRGM en partenariat avec le LEO (Laboratoire d'Économie d'Orléans), l'AFPG (Association Française des Professionnels de la Géothermie), l'AMORCE (Association d'accompagnement des collectivités et des acteurs dans la transition énergétique) et AgreenTech Valley (Cluster national dédié aux technologies numériques pour les filières végétales). Il a pour objectif d'établir un argumentaire pour aider les collectivités locales et les acteurs privés de la région à choisir entre les différentes sources d'énergie renouvelable possibles pour les réseaux de chauffage urbain, les processus industriels ou le chauffage des cultures sous serres. Pour développer cet argumentaire, les phases du projet sont : (1) comprendre le positionnement des acteurs vis-à-vis de la géothermie profonde, et (2) rassembler les informations clés dans le contexte territorial (aspects socio-économiques et environnementaux d'un projet de géothermie profonde, informations sur la ressource géothermale, demande de chaleur sur le territoire). Cet article présente les avancées dans le processus de construction de l'argumentaire, en particulier les résultats (1) de l'analyse du positionnement des acteurs de la région et (2) de l'analyse économique et environnementale d'un projet de géothermie profonde. |
| Keywords: | leviers, argumentaire, atouts, serristes, industriels, énergies renouvelables, collectivités, Région Centre-Val de Loire, freins, géothermie profond |
| Date: | 2025–06–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05044110 |
| By: | Selvaraju, Sangeeth; Robins, Nick |
| Abstract: | This briefing examines the just transition agenda at the Port Talbot steel works, South Wales, and compares the UK experience with steps to achieve green steel in other European countries. It closes with lessons and recommendations for action by the UK and Welsh governments, for Tata Steel and similar companies, and for the financial system. |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129021 |
| By: | Nicholls, Mark |
| Abstract: | UK-based energy utility SSE was one of the first companies to design and implement a just transition strategy as part of its net zero plan. Dialogue with investors was a key factor in the development of the strategy and its experience provides important lessons on business strategy, market frameworks, metrics and stakeholder dialogue. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 L81 |
| Date: | 2024–02–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129026 |
| By: | Leslie Shiell (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa, Canada) |
| Abstract: | In March 2015, the Canadian Prime Minister terminated the federal carbon price and rebate system, in response to widespread belief that the carbon price was a major factor in the ongoing affordability crisis. The previous autumn, the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO 2024) released a report indicating that, including both cash and economics effects, approximately 60% of households paid more on the carbon price than they received in the rebate, and therefore the average household across the eight affected provinces (all but BC and Quebec) was made worse off by the policy. However, there are several features of PBO (2024) which were apt to create confusion and lead to misunderstanding of the results, including: (i) vagueness about income levels, (ii) disproportionate emphasis on 2030 results, (iii) use of after-tax (disposable) income as the basis of analysis, (iv) use of average income, rather than median income, to summarize typical impact, and (v) lack of information on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at different income levels. We address these issues and provide a clearer picture of the distributional impacts of the carbon price and rebate system. In 2024-2025, the policy made 50% or more of households, in four of the eight affected provinces, better off financially, and all households were forecast to be better off by the final year of the policy, 2030-2031, than they were in 2024-2025, as standard growth factors were forecast to outweigh the modest costs associated with the policy. We conclude that, far from making most households worse off, the federal carbon price and rebate policy was an effective policy to counteract the affordability crisis among those who needed help the most, and of course it was forecast to result in important environmental benefits as well. |
| Keywords: | Canada’s carbon tax and rebate; distributional impact. |
| JEL: | H23 Q52 Q58 D31 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ott:wpaper:2505e |
| By: | Saadaoui, Jamel |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel identification strategy of geopolitical turning points, defined as sharp, unanticipated inflection points in bilateral relations. These shocks are measured using the second difference of the Political Relationship Index (Δ²PRI), an event-based monthly index derived from Chinese sources. Unlike standard geopolitical risk indices, Δ²PRI isolates events that represent exogenous shifts in diplomatic relationships. Using quantile IV-local projections, the paper studies the causal and asymmetric impact of these shocks on global oil prices. An improvement in US–China relations reduces oil prices by 0.2% in the short run and raises them by 0.3% in the medium run, with effects varying across the oil price distribution. The extension to the Japan–China dyad supports external validity. The Δ²PRI instrument offers a reusable framework for analyzing bilateral political shocks across various macroeconomic outcomes, making a methodological contribution to the international economics literature. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Risk, Oil Prices, Quantile Local Projections, Instrumental Variables. |
| JEL: | C26 C32 F41 F51 |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125586 |
| By: | Robins, Nick; Curran, Brendan; Plyska, Sasha; Selvaraju, Sangeeth; Tickell, Sophia; Wang, Jodi Ann |
| Abstract: | This report is an invitation to those who want to accelerate the global transition to a resilient, net zero and nature-positive economy in a socially inclusive and fair way. It is directed at leaders and practitioners who want to harness the power of finance to make this happen. The report marks the launch of the Just Transition Finance Lab, which has been established by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at LSE to support this shift. The report outlines the geopolitical urgency of the just transition and the growing number of initiatives seeking specifically to harness finance to address the challenge. It also illustrates the raw reality that financing the just transition is still an emerging field and has yet to achieve critical mass. The report goes on to identify systemic obstacles to progress and how the Lab intends to contribute to surmounting these barriers. Finally, the report sets out four initial priority work areas for the Lab in its first year, 2024. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 N0 |
| Date: | 2024–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129023 |
| By: | Lucas W. Davis; Paul Gertler |
| Abstract: | A common theme in the vast literature on climate change is the estimation of models using historical data to make predictions many decades into the future. Although there is a large and growing number of these types of studies, researchers rarely return later to check the accuracy of their predictions. In this paper, we perform such an exercise. In Davis and Gertler (2015), we used household-level microdata from Mexico to predict future air conditioning adoption as a function of income and temperature. Revisiting these predictions with 12 years of additional data, we find that air conditioning in Mexico has accelerated, significantly exceeding our predictions. Neither errors in predicting income growth or rising temperatures, nor migration patterns, nor an overly restrictive model can explain the large prediction gap. Instead, our results point to the failure to account for falling electricity prices and technological changes in air conditioner efficiency as key drivers of the prediction gap. |
| JEL: | D12 H23 Q40 Q41 Q47 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34101 |
| By: | Mani, Sneha; Gupta, Aashish; Elo, Irma |
| Abstract: | Scientific understanding of the relationship between environmental hazards and cognitive health at older ages in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is poor. Using data from the Longitudinal Aging Study of India and the World Health Organization's Survey on Global AGEing and adult health for four LMICs, we examine the association of direct and local exposure to polluting cooking fuels with cognitive health at older ages. We document the negative influence of both: cognitive health is poorer among members of households that use polluting fuels and among residents of neighborhoods where the use of polluting fuels is more common. These associations cannot be explained by accounting for individual or local differences in socioeconomic status. Consistent with direct impacts of polluting fuels, we find that women in households where the use of polluting fuels is common have the lowest predicted cognitive scores. Our findings reveal the substantial direct influence and negative externalities of polluting fuel use in LMICs and help understand why overall cognitive health may be poor in these settings. Moving away from polluting fuels toward clean fuels may not only reduce individual risk but also community-level exposure to air pollution, contributing to better cognitive health in older ages. |
| Date: | 2025–06–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:73nyb_v1 |
| By: | David Cayla (GRANEM - Groupe de Recherche Angevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage) |
| Abstract: | La combustion de ressources fossiles pour produire de l'énergie est l'activité humaine la plus émettrice de gaz à effet de serre (GES). Pour limiter son impact environnemental, il serait théoriquement possible d'agir sur deux leviers : diminuer globalement notre consommation d'énergie dans une logique de décroissance ou décarboner sa production. Si une diminution de la consommation est envisageable dans les pays développés, elle ne l'est pas pour les pays en développement ou à l'échelle du monde. Aussi, cette contribution entend étudier les conditions économiques et institutionnelles requises par la décarbonation du secteur énergétique, étant entendu que, dans les pays développés, des efforts de sobriété seront sans doute nécessaires. |
| Keywords: | Décarbonation, changement climatique, néolibéralisme |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05178224 |
| By: | Angelo Forino; Andrea Mercatanti; Giacomo Morelli |
| Abstract: | Factor models for longitudinal data, where policy adoption is unconfounded with respect to a low-dimensional set of latent factor loadings, have become increasingly popular for causal inference. Most existing approaches, however, rely on a causal finite-sample approach or computationally intensive methods, limiting their applicability and external validity. In this paper, we propose a novel causal inference method for panel data based on inverse propensity score weighting where the propensity score is a function of latent factor loadings within a framework of causal inference from super-population. The approach relaxes the traditional restrictive assumptions of causal panel methods, while offering advantages in terms of causal interpretability, policy relevance, and computational efficiency. Under standard assumptions, we outline a three-step estimation procedure for the ATT and derive its large-sample properties using Mestimation theory. We apply the method to assess the causal effect of the Paris Agreement, a policy aimed at fostering the transition to a low-carbon economy, on European stock returns. Our empirical results suggest a statistically significant and negative short-run effect on the stock returns of firms that issued green bonds. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.08764 |
| By: | Baatz, Christian; Tank, Lukas; Bednarz, Lena-Katharina; Böttcher, Miranda; Morganti, Teresa Maria; Voget-Kleschin, Lieske; Cabus, Tony; Doorn, Erik van; Dorndorf, Tabea; Havermann, Felix; Holzhüter, Wanda; Keller, David; Kreuzburg, Matthias; Matz-Lück, Nele; Mengis, Nadine; Merk, Christine; Moustakis, Yiannis; Pongratz, Julia; Wehnert, Hendrikje; Yao, Wanxuan; Rehder, Gregor |
| Abstract: | Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) options could potentially play an important role in future CDR policy portfolios. They include, for example, ocean alkalinity enhancement, blue carbon projects such as mangrove cultivation, as well as sub-seabed storage of captured atmospheric CO 2 . In this paper we present a novel assessment framework designed for mCDR options. The framework provides important conceptual advancements to existing frameworks currently used to assess climate options: It clearly distinguishes between and allows for the assessment of both the feasibility and desirability of mCDR options, it makes explicit the evaluative standards upon which the assessment is based and it separates the descriptive listing of information from the evaluation of said information. The assessment framework aims to advance the debate on what role mCDR can and should play in responding to the climate crisis by providing a tool for both policymakers and stakeholders to assess mCDR options in a transparent and comprehensive way. |
| Keywords: | assessment framework, marine carbon dioxide removal, feasibility, desirability, climate change, assessment criteria, mitigation |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:323601 |
| By: | Agramont, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the evolving geopolitical dynamics surrounding critical raw materials (CRMs), with a focus on Latin America and the European Union's (EU) attempt to secure access to these resources amid intensifying competition with China. Drawing from trade statistics, foreign investment trends, and institutional strategies, the study assesses the EU’s renewed interest in Latin America through the Global Gateway and the Win-Win Partnership frameworks. While China's economic footprint in the region is deeply entrenched through its South-South cooperation model, the EU seeks to reposition itself as a viable partner by leveraging environmental and governance standards. The analysis identifies key minerals—particularly lithium, copper, and lead—where dependency and vulnerability are highest, and where strategic diversification is urgently needed. Ultimately, the paper argues that the EU’s success will depend on its ability to implement a more flexible and pragmatic strategy, balancing its normative approach with tangible development outcomes for Latin American partners. |
| Keywords: | geopolitics; critical raw materials; EU-Latin America; energy transition |
| JEL: | F14 F59 Q34 O13 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129191 |
| By: | Mohamed Drar (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)); Mbarek Aoufir (UH2C - Université Hassan II de Casablanca = University of Hassan II Casablanca = جامعة الحسن الثاني (ar)) |
| Abstract: | The observation of pump price levels in Morocco and the price of oil raises many questions among the public and economists, who note a certain discrepancy between the level of the price of crude oil and that of pump prices. This phenomenon, known in the literature as "Rockets and feathers", expresses a certain asymmetry between these two prices, whereby prices at the pump react quickly to increases in the price of crude oil, but only slowly to decreases in the latter. Thus, this paper aims to test this asymmetry hypothesis for the case of Morocco using NARDL (nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags) model throughout 49 fortnights (from 16/01/2016 to 16/12/2017). The results of this study did not confirm the presence of a certain asymmetry in either the short or long term between the price of refined gasoil at import and retail price. Keywords: Transmission; Asymmetry; NARDL; pump prices; Morocco Classification JEL : L11 ; L51 Paper type : Empirical research |
| Abstract: | L'observation des niveaux des prix à la pompe au Maroc et du prix du pétrole suscite beaucoup d'interrogations aussi bien chez le public que chez les économistes qui remarquent un certain déphasage entre le niveau du prix du pétrole brut et celui des prix à la pompe. Ce phénomène connu dans la littérature sous l'expression « Rockets and feathers » exprime une certaine asymétrie entre ces deux prix selon laquelle les prix à la pompe réagissent rapidement à l'augmentation du prix du brut, mais ne répondent que lentement à la baisse de ce dernier. Ainsi, l'objectif de ce papier est de tester cette hypothèse d'asymétrie pour le cas du Maroc en recourant à une modélisation du type NARDL (non linear autoregressive distributed lags) sur une période de 49 quinzaines (du 16/01/2016 au 16/12/2017). Les résultats de cette étude n'ont pas pu confirmer la présence d'une certaine asymétrie ni à court terme ni à long terme entre le prix du gasoil raffiné à l'importation et celui du détail. Mots-clés : JEL Classification : L11 ; L51 Type de l'article : Article empirique Abstract |
| Keywords: | Morocco, pump prices, NARDL, asymmetry, Transmission, asymétrie, Maroc , prix à la pompe |
| Date: | 2024–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05165650 |
| By: | Helen Chiappini; Laura Nieri; Stefano Piser |
| Abstract: | This study investigates whether physical risk and transition risk factors affect South African bank lending behaviour. Results of baseline analysis suggest that physical climate risk negatively affects South African bank lending behaviour. Similarly, we find consistent results when considering climate transition risk proxied by the adoption of South Africas carbon tax in 2019. Finally, we find that the physical climate risk effect is stronger for commercial banks and tends to assume a non-linear U-shape effect. Our research provides one of the first empirical assessments of climate risk effects on the South African banking industry and includes useful suggestions for practitioners, policymakers and regulators. |
| Date: | 2025–08–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rbz:wpaper:11086 |
| By: | Lorenz Goette; Zhi Hao Lim |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the potential for behavioral interventions aimed at promoting resource conservation within one domain to induce spillovers in another. Through a large-scale natural field experiment involving around 2, 000 residents, we assess the direct and spillover effects of real-time feedback and social comparisons on water and energy consumption. Three interventions were implemented: two targeting shower use and one targeting air-conditioning use. We document a significant reduction in shower use attributable to both water-saving interventions, but no direct effects on air-conditioning use from the energy-saving intervention. For spillovers, we precisely estimated null effects on air-conditioning use arising from the water-saving interventions, and vice versa. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.04371 |
| By: | Higham, Catherine; Bradeen, Emily; Averchenkova, Alina; Chan, Tiffanie |
| Abstract: | This report consists of a submission to a call for views by the Scottish Parliament on the Climate Change Targets Bill, launched in August 2024. More information on the consultation is available at: https://yourviews.parliament.scot/nzet/climate-change-targets-bill/consultation/intro/. The submission draws on research and policy analysis conducted by the Grantham Research Institute that aims to understand the key features of the existing stock of climate change framework laws around the world, and how these features contribute to the positive and negative impacts arising from the laws. It responds to questions relating to carbon budgets, climate change plans, and monitoring and reporting. |
| Keywords: | Scotland; UK climate policy; carbon budgets; legislation |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129079 |
| By: | Masaki Umejima (Convener of Development Plan, IEC System Committee Smart Energy); Jun Murai (Senior Advanced Research Project Professor, Cyber Civilization Research Center, Keio University (CCRC), Japan); Naoto Okura (Director General for Research and Policy Design, ERIA) |
| Abstract: | Rapid economic growth in Southeast Asia has significantly increased energy demand amidst a rapidly evolving global energy landscape, characterised by a growing reliance on distributed energy resources (DERs) and distributed energy systems (DESs). The Energy Resource Aggregation Business (ERAB) has emerged as a vital approach for managing and optimising these resources through open-standard interfaces and Internet-based architectures, underpinned by open, autonomous, distributed, and globally governed systems. However, most organisations today face considerable challenges due to the rapid proliferation of potentially vulnerable DERs and DESs. Consequently, ERAB systems – comprising DERs and DESs – must be designed to securely isolate network components while minimising impacts on the broader network, consumers, and business partners in the event of a breach. The authors, convened under the ERIA study group, conclude that in addition to the critical role of standardising hardware and software security protocols, the three-layer, six-element model of the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry’s Cyber/Physical Security Framework (CPSF) is highly applicable to ERAB security design. This model supports the configuration of DERs according to international standards within the global supply chain. |
| Keywords: | Technological Change; Open Innovation |
| JEL: | O36 |
| Date: | 2025–07–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2025-05 |
| By: | Gkargkavouzi, Anastasia; Halkos, George |
| Abstract: | The increasing urgency of the climate crisis has necessitated a transformative approach to education that prepares learners to act as agents of sustainable change. This working paper synthesizes UNESCO's Greening Curriculum Guidance with contemporary academic insights to propose a comprehensive framework for embedding climate change education into formal and non-formal learning environments. Drawing on theoretical models, empirical evidence, and international policy frameworks, the paper articulates strategies for greening the curriculum, outlines actionable steps for institutional implementation, and analyzes pedagogical methods that cultivate cognitive, socio-emotional, and behavioral competencies. The role of intersectionality, justice, and indigenous knowledge systems is emphasized to ensure an inclusive and context-sensitive transition toward climate-resilient education systems. |
| Keywords: | Curriculum Greening; Climate Education; Sustainability; Pedagogical Strategies; UNESCO; ESD. |
| JEL: | D90 I21 Q01 Q50 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125668 |
| By: | Karen Clay; Danae Hernandez-Cortes; Akshaya Jha; Joshua A. Lewis; Noah S. Miller; Edson R. Severnini |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relative contributions of siting decisions and post-siting demo-graphic shifts to current disparities in exposure to polluting fossil-fuel plants in the United States. Our analysis leverages newly digitized data on power plant siting and operations from 1900-2020, combined with spatially resolved demographics and population data from the U.S Census from 1870-2020. We find little evidence that fossil-fuel plants were disproportionately sited in counties with higher Black population shares on average. However, event study estimates indicate that Black population share grows in the decades after the first fossil-fuel plant is built in a county, with average increases in Black population share of 4 percentage points in the 50-70 years after first siting. These long-run demographic shifts are driven by counties that first hosted a fossil-fuel plant between 1900-1949. We close by exploring how these long-run demographic shifts were shaped by the Great Migration, differential sorting in response to pollution, and other factors. Our findings highlight that the equity implications of siting long-lived infrastructure can differ dramatically depending on the time span considered. |
| JEL: | D63 J18 N72 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34109 |
| By: | Mohammadzadeh Asl, Nazi; Hataminia, Soheil |
| Abstract: | The relationship between poverty and the environment is multi-dimensional and complex, necessitating a detailed analysis, particularly at the regional level. This study evaluates and ranks Iran’s 30 provinces based on the poverty-environment nexus. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), a composite index comprMiising energy consumption intensity, CO₂ emissions, water stress index, and desertified land area was developed for the year 2021. The first two principal components explained approximately 71% of the total variance. Results indicate a significant negative correlation between poverty and environmental degradation (r = -0.61). In this context, wealthier provinces such as Tehran, Isfahan, and Khuzestan experience the highest environmental degradation, whereas poorer provinces encounter relatively less environmental pressure. The findings suggest that improved economic conditions in Iranian provinces have often been accompanied by reduced livability and heightened environmental degradation. Therefore, policymakers are advised to prioritize enhancing livability by integrating sustainable water resource management and desertification control into poverty alleviation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Welfare, Poverty, Inequality, Environment, Livability |
| JEL: | A12 A13 I3 I31 O10 O18 O21 O44 Q2 Q25 Q28 Q5 Q52 Q53 Q54 Q56 Q57 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125768 |
| By: | Andres Rodriguez-Pose; Zhuoying You; Peter Teirlinck |
| Abstract: | This This paper explores the relationship between support for extreme political parties and research and innovation across regions in the European Union (EU). Extreme parties often exhibit deep scepticism towards expertise and science, with extreme right-wing parties, in particular, challenging the legitimacy of climate change; an attitude that may weaken green research and innovation. We draw on data from 1, 137 EU regions —including scientific publication and patent records— and apply Tobit regression models to find that stronger support for extreme parties is associated with lower levels of scientific research and technological innovation, both overall and in their green forms. While this pattern is visible across the political spectrum, important differences emerge. Support for extreme right-wing parties is consistently tied to reduced research output and innovation performance, particularly in green technological sectors. By contrast, the relationship with extreme left-wing support is more variable, depending on the degree of radicalism, and shows no consistent negative connection with green innovation. |
| Keywords: | research, innovation, climate change, extreme parties, regions, Europe |
| JEL: | D72 D74 O32 O33 R10 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2525 |
| By: | Lundin, Erik (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | I examine the pricing behavior of municipal and private firms in the unregulated Swedish district heating market, characterized by geographically bounded local monopoly networks. Conditional on exogenous cost factors, private firms charge on average seven percent higher prices compared to their municipal counterparts. Nearly all firms employ two-part pricing. Consistent with standard monopoly theory, the entire price difference can be explained by the fixed price component. Further, foreign-owned private firms charge an additional price premium relative to domestically owned private firms. A descriptive analysis of financial statements confirms that private firms achieve higher profit margins, despite municipal firms being legally required to operate in a business-like manner. These findings demonstrate that, in this market, private firms exercise more market power than public firms, and that the subsequent upward pressure on prices dominates any downward effects from the potential cost efficiencies associated with privatization. |
| Keywords: | Privatization; Two-part pricing; District heating; Natural monopoly; Market power; Network industries |
| JEL: | L12 L43 L97 P18 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1532 |
| By: | Donia Besher; Anirban Sengupta; Tanujit Chakraborty |
| Abstract: | Forecasting Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) is essential as policymakers strive to balance economic growth with environmental goals. High levels of CPU can slow down investments in green technologies, make regulatory planning more difficult, and increase public resistance to climate reforms, especially during times of economic stress. This study addresses the challenge of forecasting the US CPU index by building the Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) model with a large set of covariates, including economic indicators, financial cycle data, and public sentiments captured through Google Trends. The key strength of the BSTS model lies in its ability to efficiently manage a large number of covariates through its dynamic feature selection mechanism based on the spike-and-slab prior. To validate the effectiveness of the selected features of the BSTS model, an impulse response analysis is performed. The results show that macro-financial shocks impact CPU in different ways over time. Numerical experiments are performed to evaluate the performance of the BSTS model with exogenous variables on the US CPU dataset over different forecasting horizons. The empirical results confirm that BSTS consistently outperforms classical and deep learning frameworks, particularly for semi-long-term and long-term forecasts. |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2507.12276 |
| By: | Selvaraju, Sangeeth Raja; Robins, Nick; Tandon, Suranjali |
| Abstract: | This report focuses on the increasing role that institutional investors will play in advancing the just transition in India, given the vast capital they can bring to bear and attractiveness of the Indian economy to foreign portfolio investments. The authors identify levers for investors to develop real-world practice, build confidence, and lay the foundations for broad-based adoption in ways that support national priorities. They also outline the just transition challenge and risk facing India, examples of building momentum for action, and the need to attract more international capital. |
| Keywords: | banking; institutional investors; energy; agriculture and nature; built environment; India; policy; policy reform |
| JEL: | R14 J01 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2024–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129016 |
| By: | Hill, Peter |
| Abstract: | This report focuses on the UK’s foreign, development and economic policies as they relate to climate. In examining the world as it may develop over the next decade in order to illuminate decisions needed in the short term, it argues that governments, including the UK’s new government, should treat climate as a first order geopolitical issue and examines the UK’s role and required actions within this context. |
| Keywords: | renewables; UK; China; COP29; critical minerals; finance; multilateral development banks; net zero transition; polling; public opinion; geopolitics; MDBs; global economy |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–09–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129078 |
| By: | María José Arteaga Garavito; Riccardo Colacito; Mariano Max Croce; Biao Yang |
| Abstract: | We develop novel high-frequency indices that measure climate attention across a wide range of developed and emerging economies. By analyzing the text of over 23 million Tweets published by leading national newspapers, we find that a country experiencing more severe climate news shocks tends to see both an inflow of capital and an appreciation of its currency. In addition, brown stocks experience large and persistent negative returns after a global climate news shock if located in highly exposed countries. A risk-sharing model in which investors price climate news shocks and trade consumption and investment goods in global markets rationalizes these findings. |
| JEL: | F3 F4 G1 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34084 |
| By: | Vanille Ecrement (ITE - Institut de la Transition Environnementale - SU - Sorbonne Université, GRIPIC - Groupe de recherches interdisciplinaires sur les processus d’information et de communication - SU - Sorbonne Université) |
| Keywords: | Overshoot, Climate change mitigation, Capitalism, Models, Scenarios |
| Date: | 2025–07–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05191190 |
| By: | Rounak Hande (xKDR Forum); Ayush Patnaik (xKDR Forum); Ajay Shah (xKDR Forum); Susan Thomas |
| Abstract: | With the Russia-Ukraine war evolving into a prolonged war of attrition, the functioning of the two economies has become central. A small but growing literature uses alternative data to measure economic activity, responding to the limitations of official statistics. In this paper, we use nighttime lights ("NTL") data to track economic changes in both countries. Ukraine's NTL has fallen by 50% compared to 2022 levels. In contrast, Russia's aggregate NTL showed virtually no change between 2022 and 2025. Within Russia, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, which produces 90% of the country's gas, recorded substantial NTL growth despite reports of declining national gas production. We also identify growth reversals in regions hundreds of kilometres from the Ukrainian border, likely reflecting the effects of standoff weapons. Similar reversals appear along Russia's Western European border but not along other international frontiers, suggesting uneven enforcement of sanctions. Over the war years, Ukraine's economic activity has shifted westward, while Russia's has moved eastward. |
| JEL: | R11 F51 C80 P25 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anf:wpaper:40 |
| By: | Smolenska, Agnieszka |
| Abstract: | The sustainability transition requires a fundamental change in the way economies function to align socioeconomic systems with planetary boundaries. From a legal perspective, such a shift should entail a transformation of the prevailing legal coding of economic relations to enable consistent integration of social and environmental considerations. Within the emerging sustainable finance trend, shoots of change are visible: new financial instruments, such as green or sustainability-linked bonds and loans, appear to be reorienting the market relationships around sustainability impact issues. A sociolegal and legal institutionalist analysis of this trend reveals how such instruments shape and are shaped by different facilitative, regulatory and constitutive facets of law. Using EU green bond issuances as a case study, the article highlights how law expands and limits the transformative potential of such novel financial instruments. The analysis is revealing of the co-constitutive dynamics of law and sustainable finance. In this context, the article makes three contributions. Firstly, it offers a comparative case study of law’s co-constitutive dynamics in the case of financial innovation designed for environmental and social impact. Secondly, it identifies the co-constitutive dynamics of law and (sustainable) finance relating to differentiation and expansion.Thirdly, it finds variance in the law’s co-constitutive role at the micro-level of financial interactions, and in meso-structures that emerge in the context of sustainable finance specifically. To the extent that sustainable debt instruments are increasingly linked to a company’s overall performance and corporate governance, the article’s findings have implications for the integration of social concerns in financial instruments. |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2025–08–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128884 |
| By: | De Sanctis, Alessandro; Kapp, Daniel; Vinci, Francesca; Wojciechowski, Robert |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the effectiveness of EU Cohesion Policy as an investment programme, employing a novel dataset that links firm-level data from Orbis with project-level information from the Kohesio database. It focuses on two key questions: (1) Which firms receive EU funding? (2) How does receiving EU funding affect firm performance? By applying a logit model and a local projection difference-in-differences approach, we provide new insights into the allocation mechanisms of EU Cohesion Policy funds and their firm-level impact. Our findings show that funding tends to be allocated to firms that already perform relatively well, and that firms receiving EU funding experience a persistent productivity increase of approximately 3% after 4 years, with smaller and more financially constrained firms experiencing relatively greater improvements. Moreover, funding targeting “SME investment” tends to enhance firm performance disproportionately more than other categories, whereas projects directed the “green transition” appear comparatively less beneficial. JEL Classification: E22, D24, H54, O38, O52 |
| Keywords: | corporate investment, European Structural and Investment Funds, fiscal policy, place-based policy, productivity |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253099 |
| By: | Mathilde Marchand (LATTS - Laboratoire Techniques, Territoires et Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Gustave Eiffel - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); François-Mathieu Poupeau (LATTS - Laboratoire Techniques, Territoires et Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Gustave Eiffel - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris) |
| Abstract: | This article looks at the role played by the regions in energy and climate planning in France. Through an analysis of the implementation of the regional plans for land use, sustainable development and territorial equality (SRADDET) created by the 2015 NOTRe law, it shows that this level of government is struggling to assert its capacity for strategic action in the face of three types of stakeholders. First of all, the State continues to play a framing role, which is most apparent upstream in the process, in its desire to restrict the Regions to the role of relaying national guidelines. Secondly, network operators are seeking to retain their autonomy of action by developing their own planning strategies. Finally, sub-regional authorities are contesting the territorialisation of the plans, in the name of respect for the free administration of local authorities. The process of drawing up the SRADDETs thus reflects a balance of power that is unfavourable to the regions, and reflects the still-fragile position they currently occupy in the governance of energy and climate. |
| Abstract: | Cet article s'intéresse au rôle joué par les Régions dans la planification de l'énergie-climat en France. À travers l'analyse de la mise en œuvre des Schémas régionaux d'aménagement, de développement durable et d'égalité des territoires (Sraddet) créés par loi NOTRe de 2015, il montre que cet échelon peine à affirmer sa capacité d'action stratégique, face à trois types d'acteurs. L'État, tout d'abord, continue d'exercer un rôle de cadrage, qui se manifeste surtout en amont du processus, dans la volonté de circonscrire les Régions à une fonction de relais des orientations nationales. Les gestionnaires de réseaux, ensuite, cherchent à conserver une autonomie d'action en développant leur propre stratégie de planification. Les collectivités infrarégionales, enfin, contestent la territorialisation des schémas, au nom du respect de libre administration des collectivités locales. Le processus d'élaboration des Sraddet reflète ainsi un rapport de force défavorable aux Régions et traduit la place encore fragile qu'elles occupent actuellement dans la gouvernance de l'énergie-climat. |
| Keywords: | energy-climate, planification, territorialisation, State Régions, gouvernance, énergie-climat, État, Régions |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-05196261 |