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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Loubna Eddallal |
| Abstract: | Nigeria, long regarded as Africa’s oil powerhouse, is entering a new energy chapter, driven by the country’s strategic shift towards becoming the leading gas economy in the continent. With proven reserves exceeding 210 trillion cubic feet, Nigeria is set to emerge as Africa’s foremost gas producer and exporter. The government’s Decade of Gas Initiative, launched in 2021 by President Muhammadu Bihari, constitutes the official framework for this transition, which aims to diversify the economy by reducing dependence on oil and positioning natural gas as the key transition fuel in the African energy landscape. This shift aligns with the rising global demand for cleaner energy sources, since natural gas is viewed as a transition fuel. Nigeria’s strategic gas export plans and opportunities include regional pipeline projects, including the West African Gas Pipeline and the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline, aiming to strengthen the country’s position as a key energy supplier across Africa and eventually Europe. By positioning itself as an African gas hub, Nigeria is set to play a pivotal role in regional energy integration, while driving economic growth, contributing to Africa’s clean energy transition, and supporting the continent’s sustainable development goals. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb032_25 |
| By: | Dejkam, Rahil (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | This study is about a techno-economic assessment of stand-alone, battery-buffered e-vehicle charging stations incorporating solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind turbine (WT) energy systems in four major German cities: Berlin, Cologne, Hamburg, and Munich. Using modeling and simulation techniques, the study evaluates optimal configurations to meet daily charging demands while considering urban environments and spatial heterogeneity in meteorological conditions. Results indicate that hybrid PV/WT/battery systems are the preferred choice for renewable energy charging stations in Berlin, Hamburg, and Munich as they are able to minimize net present cost (NPC) and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) while meeting daily charging demand and environmental targets. In Cologne, in contrast, due to higher wind availability, WT/battery systems emerge as the most cost-effective option. Sensitivity analysis shows the impact of load and storage capacity on economic metrics such as NPC and LCOE, with NPC values ranging from €524, 836 to €1, 640, 000 across various load scenarios considered. The findings demonstrate the potential for enhancing economic feasibility via solar tracking systems, increased wind turbine hub heights, and offshore wind deployment. This study provides actionable insights for integrating renewable energy into EV charging infrastructure, thus contributing to Germany’s decarbonization and energy transition efforts. |
| Keywords: | Electric Vehicle; Stand-Alone Hybrid Charging Station; Hybrid Renewable Energy; Green Mobility; Techno-Economic Feasibility |
| JEL: | Q20 Q21 Q49 Q50 |
| Date: | 2023–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2023_013 |
| By: | Ben Youssef, Slim |
| Abstract: | We study the relationships between arms imports, political stability, oil exports, gross domestic product, and greenhouse gas emissions by considering a panel of eight oil-exporting countries of the Gulf region and yearly data between 2000 and 2023. Since there is cross-sectional dependence between our considered variables, second-generation panel unit root and cointegration tests are used. In addition, we use the cross-sectional distributed lag (CS-DL) methodology to estimate our long-run coefficients. Several new and interesting results are deduced. Arms imports increase political stability and economic growth. Political stability increases oil exports and reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Oil exports reduce arms imports. Oil-exporting Gulf countries are advised to continue importing and plan the production of high-tech weapons to strengthen their political stability. This latter enables them to elaborate and realize energy efficiency and renewable energy strategies, transforming them into producing and exporting renewable energy countries. |
| Keywords: | Arms imports; political stability; oil exports; greenhouse gas emissions; cross-sectional distributed lag; Gulf countries. |
| JEL: | C33 H56 O53 Q37 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–04–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124791 |
| By: | Ahrens, Leo; Bremer, Björn (Central European University); Hakelberg, Lukas (Leuphana University of Lüneburg) |
| Abstract: | Carbon inequality implies that wealthy individuals contribute more to climate change than asset-poor indi-viduals, which is primarily driven by higher levels of consumption and investment in carbon-intensive in-dustries. Yet the prevailing policy response—the carbon tax—is regressive, as it places a higher relative bur-den on low-income than on high-income households. It is therefore politically unpopular, given that percep-tions of distributional fairness strongly shape public support for climate policies. We conduct two comple-mentary survey experiments to examine preferences over a recent policy proposal developed in response to accumulating evidence of carbon inequality: wealth taxation to finance the green transition. Using a ran-domized controlled trial, we find that while baseline support for wealth taxation is high among respondents in Germany, exposing them to a compensatory argument emphasizing carbon inequality does not further increase this support. However, emphasizing carbon inequality increases support for using wealth tax reve-nues to finance the green transition, making this the most popular option for using the revenue. A conjoint survey experiment further demonstrates that spending wealth tax revenue on public investment in transport infrastructure, subsidies for private investment in low-carbon technologies, and redistributive measures such as a lump-sum payment to all households paying carbon taxes receives the highest support among German respondents. In contrast, subsidies for the purchase of electric vehicles and investment in geo-engineering are highly unpopular. These findings suggest that invoking carbon inequality can help build democratic majorities for using wealth taxation to finance investment in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Hence, there is a path towards lower emissions and greater climate resilience that is unlikely to produce popular backlash. |
| Date: | 2025–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:h6rxc_v1 |
| By: | Christian Furtwängler (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen) |
| Abstract: | The recent energy crisis in Europe has underlined the importance of a fast replacement of fossil fuels like natural gas by green energy carriers. Great hopes for quick decarbonisation mostly rest on two technologies, hypothesized to form a “perfect match†: Combined heat and power (CHP) generation units that are in widespread usage across district heating grids today are often planned to be decarbonized by using green fuels, e.g. green hydrogen originating from electrolysis with green electricity. Additionally, the direct usage of electricity for heating purposes (Power-to-Heat, PtH), is seen as a fitting complementing option. This contribution thus aims at investigating the cost structure of the CHP system of the future – and whether this perfect match is a likely outcome in different energy market environments. Three distinct mid-term scenarios for the year 2035 are developed and different heating portfolio setups are tested with regards to the viability of individual heating assets. For this analysis, the stochastic portfolio optimization framework StoOpt is used. The perfect match hypothesis is both theoretically confirmed and practically questioned by the obtained results. At least one of the technologies tends to struggle in different market environments and subsidies might be needed to secure investment in both technologies. |
| Keywords: | combined heat and power, power-to-heat, stochastic optimization, long-term energy scenarios, district heating |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dui:wpaper:2503 |
| By: | Francis Perrin |
| Abstract: | On April 17, 2025, British oil and gas giant BP announced the export of the first cargo of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from offshore resources shared by Senegal and Mauritania. For the first time in their history, both countries have become LNG exporters. This milestone follows a series of pivotal developments in the region’s hydrocarbon sector. In late December 2024, offshore gas production began. By February 2025, LNG production had commenced. Earlier still, in June 2024, Senegal started producing offshore oil, marking another historic event. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb029_25_2 |
| By: | Hoogland, Kelly PhD; Hardman, Scott PhD |
| Abstract: | Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), including both battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are crucial forreducing emissions and meeting sustainability targets, yet their adoption has been limited primarily to higher-income and new car buyers, leaving most low-income households without access. To help inform policies that will accelerate access to used BEVs in particular, this study explored car buying behavior, costs, and usage within and between groups defined by vehicle condition (new vs. used), fuel type(battery-electric vehicles [BEVs] vs. internal combustion engine vehicles [ICEVs], and income level. BEV owning, new-car buying, andhaving higher incomewere each associated with one another. On average the proportion of total income spent on vehicle-relatedexpenses is at least six times higher for householdswith incomes less than $75, 000 than householdswith incomes of $250, 000 or more. While BEVs offer savings in maintenance and fuel cost compared to ICEVs, the initial price for both new and used BEVs may need to be subsidized to alleviate cost burden for lower-income households. Used car buyers, ICEV owners, and lower-income householdspredominantly do not purchase or maintain their vehicles at automaker dealerships and tend to buy older vehicles withmore mileagethan would be covered by BEV warranties. These findings have implications for the current structure of financial incentives being limited to automaker dealerships. Other possible barriers to BEV uptake for lower-income households and used car buyers, include reliability concerns and limited home charging access. BEV adoption across all income groups could be increased by broadening eligibility for incentives, enhancing battery warranties, offering battery replacement rebates, and expanding home charging infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Plug-in hybrid vehicles, Electric vehicles, Automobile ownership, Operating costs, Subsidies, Electric vehicle charging |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5nn570fd |
| By: | Antonia Kurz; Stela Rubínová |
| Abstract: | This study examines how policies affecting the cost of using fossil fuels in production influence comparative advantage in the industrial sector. Firstly, we use a fixed-effects gravity model to estimate the export capabilities that determine comparative advantage. Subsequently, using data on direct (carbon taxes, ETS permit prices) and indirect (fossil fuel excise taxes and subsidies) carbon pricing instruments for 45 economies from 2010 to 2018, we estimate that a 10% increase in carbon price is associated with a decline in export capability in the most carbon-intensive industry by 0.3% to 0.7%. We find empirical support for competitiveness spillovers to domestic downstream industries. Overall, changes in carbon pricing explain up to 1.2% of the variation in export capabilities over time. We illustrate the potential impact of fossil fuel subsidies removal by comparing independent action to global coordination, concluding that coordinated efforts can reduce the adverse effects on comparative advantage. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Pricing, Fossil Fuel Subsidies, Fossil Fuel Taxes, Comparative Advantage, Competitiveness |
| JEL: | F18 Q48 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2121 |
| By: | Bjørndal, Endre (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Bjørndal, Mette (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Hovdahl, Isabel (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Tselika, Kyriaki (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | The European Union aims to strengthen electricity market integration as part of its transition to a low-carbon energy system, with substantial investments in cross-border transmission infrastructure. This paper presents the first empirical analysis of a new interconnector, NordLink, on price convergence between southern Norway (NO2) and Germany. Using a novel panel quantile regression model, we estimate the impact of NordLink on the full distribution of hourly electricity prices in both markets. We find that the cable raised average prices in NO2 and lowered them in Germany, but with substantial heterogeneity across the price quantiles. In NO2, lower-quantile prices fell while upper-quantile prices rose. In Germany, the largest reductions occurred in the upper price quantiles. Regarding volatility, NordLink increased price fluctuations in NO2 and reduced them in Germany. We also find that the interconnector has altered the relationship between electricity prices and key fundamentals. Notably, electricity prices in NO2 have become substantially more exposed to gas prices post-NordLink, while Germany has become less exposed. Our findings highlight that market integration influences not only average prices, but also the dynamics and structure of electricity prices, with important implications for policymakers and market participants navigating the future of cross-border transmission in Europe. |
| Keywords: | Electricity prices; econometric analysis; interconnector; price volatility; renewables |
| JEL: | C31 C33 Q21 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2025_019 |
| By: | Megan R. Bailey; David P. Brown; Blake C. Shaffer; Frank A. Wolak |
| Abstract: | As electricity systems transition toward more variable renewable energy, flexible demand has emerged as a critical tool for grid management. Yet a fundamental question remains: are emerging smart technologies sufficient to unlock demand response, or does human behavior remain the critical barrier? Our field experiment examines this question through a novel approach that individually randomizes peak event timing for each participating household, allowing us to leverage both within-subject and between-subject variation. We compare the response to “peak events” on electricity consumption for households equipped with three distinct demand response programs: a fully automated system requiring no action; app-enabled smart devices requiring minimal effort; and traditional manual adjustments. The results are striking—households with passive, automated responses reduced consumption five times more than those required to take any action at all, even when the burden is greatly reduced via smart technology. The provision of enabling technologies alone made no difference in households’ responsiveness, as compared to a fully manual setting, when active participation was still required. These findings reveal that the opportunity cost of time and effort—not technology limitations—may be the fundamental obstacle to unlocking electricity demand flexibility. To achieve its full potential, “smart home” technologies need to incorporate these behavioral realities as barriers to responsiveness. |
| JEL: | L94 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33836 |
| By: | Derrien, François (HEC Paris); Garel, Alexandre (Audencia Business School); Romec, Arthur (Toulouse Business School); Zhou, Feng (Toulouse Business School) |
| Abstract: | We study climate-risk related engagements by one of the world's largest investors. Climate risk engagements represent a growing fraction of ESG engagements and are more frequent in high carbon emissions industries. We find that firms with greater carbon footprint and greater exposure to climate transition risk are more likely to be targeted. Following a climate risk engagement, targeted firms are more likely to commit to adopt a science-based climate target and to disclose climate-related information. Targeted firms also experience a reduction in their carbon emissions. However this reduction is limited to scope 1 and 2 emissions and its magnitude is inconsistent with net-zero targets. We also find that climate risk engagements are associated with greater voting support for management. Overall, our results suggest that shareholder engagement on climate issues can be an important tool in the fight against climate change. |
| Keywords: | Shareholder Engagement; Climate Change; Carbon Emissions; ESG; Activism |
| JEL: | D62 G23 G32 G34 M14 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–01–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1543 |
| By: | Philip Beran; Christian Furtwängler; Christopher Jahns; Arne Vogler; Christoph Weber (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen) |
| Abstract: | The profitable exploitation of asset portfolios in the European electricity markets has become more challenging in recent years. This is particularly true for combined heat and power (CHP) generation units that are often facing must-run conditions due to heat demands that need to be satisfied. Including the use of flexibility from storage technologies is key to optimize power plant operation margins and therefore it is crucial to adequately account for price uncertainties in the European market design. Stochastic optimization is thus frequently suggested for an optimal bidding and dispatch of said portfolios. In our contribution, we develop a novel chain of one weekly and five daily two-stage stochastic optimizations with recourse to identify the optimal bidding strategies for CHP portfolios to all relevant markets, including the key European electricity market segments, i.e., hourly day-ahead and quarterhourly intraday opening auctions, and control reserve markets, i.e., primary (FCR), secondary (aFRR) and tertiary (mFRR) reserve auctions. We test our model by means of a rolling-horizon approach on historical data and contrast our model’s performance with regards to objective function improvement and computation time for various numbers of scenarios. We furthermore benchmark the model against its deterministic representation with and without perfect information. We find that stochastic optimization may substantially increase portfolio returns, without impairing the usability of stochastic optimization frameworks in real-world contexts, a result that is stable with and without the consideration of heat provision and with different market designs regarding FCR provision periods. |
| Keywords: | or in energy, stochastic programming, auctions/bidding, combined heat and power |
| JEL: | C32 C61 L94 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dui:wpaper:2502 |
| By: | Minghao Qiu; Christopher W. Callahan; Iván Higuera-Mendieta; Lisa Rennels; Bryan Parthum; Noah S. Diffenbaugh; Marshall Burke |
| Abstract: | Human-induced climate change has increased wildfire risks, associated air pollution, and health damages in North America. Despite its large potential for damage, climate-induced wildfire smoke is rarely incorporated in estimates of the societal costs of climate change. We develop an integrated framework to estimate PM₂.₅ from climate-induced wildfire smoke and the associated mortality damage in the U.S. Our framework combines econometric estimates of smoke-mortality relationships, machine learning estimates of climate-smoke relationships, and econometric estimates of negative feedbacks between current and future wildfire activity. We estimate that 3°C of future warming will lead to 46, 200 annual deaths associated with smoke pollution in the US, doubling estimated mortality from smoke during 2011-2020. For an additional tonne of CO₂ emitted in 2025, we estimate a partial social cost of carbon of $15.1 (95%CI: $2.5-$49.3) due to climate-induced wildfire smoke mortality in the U.S, which doubles current estimates of the U.S. domestic social cost of carbon. We estimate that smoke-related mortality benefits due to projected emissions reductions from the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act are alone equal to 25% of estimated abatement costs associated with the Act. |
| JEL: | Q51 Q52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33829 |
| By: | Bailey, Megan (University of Calgary); Brown, David P. (University of Alberta, Department of Economics); Shaffer, Blake (University of Calgary); Wolak, Frank A. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | As electricity systems transition toward more variable renewable energy, flexible demand has emerged as a critical tool for grid management. Yet a fundamental question remains: are emerging smart technologies sufficient to unlock demand response, or does human behavior remain the critical barrier? Our field experiment examines this question through a novel approach that individually randomizes peak event timing for each participating household, allowing us to leverage both within-subject and between-subject variation. We compare the response to “peak events” on electricity consumption for households equipped with three distinct demand response programs: a fully automated system requiring no action; app-enabled smart devices requiring minimal effort; and traditional manual adjustments. The results are striking—households with passive, automated responses reduced consumption five times more than those required to take any action at all, even when the burden is greatly reduced via smart technology. The provision of enabling technologies alone made no difference in households’ responsiveness, as compared to a fully manual setting, when active participation was still required. These findings reveal that the opportunity cost of time and effort —not technology limitations—may be the fundamental obstacle to unlocking electricity demand flexibility. To achieve its full potential, “smart home” technologies need to incorporate these behavioral realities as barriers to responsiveness. |
| Keywords: | electricity |
| JEL: | A00 |
| Date: | 2025–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:2025_004 |
| By: | Fabianek, Paul (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Atasoy, Ayse Tugba (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | Congestion at charging stations during peak hours limits their optimal utilization hindering the adoption of e vehicles by restricting user mobility. This study examines how dynamic pricing schemes can incentivize users to modify their charging behavior and alleviate charging station congestion. Through a survey-based experiment, we quantified users’ willingness to pay across different pricing schemes with variations in time, location, and duration. Results demonstrate that average price reductions required for demand shifting were: 23.9% to change charging time (day to night), 24.1% to change location (by 1 km), and 29.7% to accept a prolongation of charging duration (by 100%). Responsiveness to dynamic pricing varied based on e-vehicle driving experience, mobility patterns, and socio-demographic characteristics. Our findings indicate that sufficient financial incentives can effectively reduce charging station congestion. We recommend policymakers to establish regulatory frameworks for dynamic pricing for electric vehicle charging and further investigate the effectiveness of various pricing schemes. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic Electricity Pricing; Demand Response; Charging Infrastructure; Flexible Charging; Consumer Preferences; Sustainable Mobility; Germany |
| JEL: | C99 D12 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2025_001 |
| By: | Jean-Claude Berthélemy (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Vincent Nossek (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Victor Béguerie (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the impact of the Café Lumière project launched by the NGO Électriciens sans frontières to address the lack of reliable electricity access in rural Madagascar. The project integrates solar-powered micro-grids and energy platforms to provide affordable electricity and basic electricity services for households, businesses, and public services. The study employs a randomized control design, with data collected through two waves of household surveys in 2017-2018 and 2023, complemented by locality data. The experimental dimension of the paper is based on a treatment implemented at the locality level. A dozen of comparable localities had been initially selected as suitable after a pre-feasibility study across the Vakinankaratra and Itasy highland regions, and the project has been randomly implemented in only half of them. Findings reveal notable improvements in household access to electricity, particularly in the use of modern energy services like lighting and phone charging. [...] |
| Keywords: | Rural electrification, Randomized controlled trial (RCT), Impact evaluation, Multiservice energy platforms, Electricity access, Renewable energy, Micro-grids, Mini-grids |
| Date: | 2025–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-05067186 |
| By: | Hirose, Kosuke; Ishihara, Akifumi; Matsumura, Toshihiro |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the recent global trend of net-zero-emissions environmental regulations, we investigate the relationship between emissions tax rates and firm profits in oligopolies. Our result indicates that when the resulting emission levels are approximately zero, a marginal increase in the tax rate enhances firms' profits except in monopoly markets. This finding suggests that firms might not resist a further increase in environmental tax if the target emissions level is sufficiently low. Moreover, we present parametric numerical examples suggesting that the profit-enhancing range is large and not limited to near-zero emissions. |
| Keywords: | net-zero-emissions industries; emissions tax; oligopolies |
| JEL: | L13 L51 Q52 |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124825 |
| By: | Shuhei NISHITATENO |
| Abstract: | Contrary to expectations in business and policy circles, progress in the adoption of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) and the expansion of hydrogen charging stations (HCSs) has been slow in developed countries, raising concerns about the viability of hydrogen mobility. To address this challenge, this study examines the indirect network effects in Japan’s FCEV market. We estimate the impact of HCS deployment on FCEV adoption using vehicle registration data from 2013 to 2020 and a staggered difference-in-differences research design. Additionally, we assess the effect of FCEV stock on HCS deployment using a system generalized method of moments estimator in a dynamic panel model. The results indicate positive and statistically significant indirect network effects on both sides of the market; however, the size of the network effects remains insufficient to generate positive feedback loops. Weak indirect network effects are also reflected in event-study results, demonstrating that the effect of HCS deployment on FCEV adoption diminishes over time. Our study suggests that developing HCS networks at an early stage is financially unsustainable without strong demand-side growth. This study broadens the understanding of zero-emission vehicle markets by providing the first evidence on indirect network effects in the FCEV market, while highlighting key distinctions from the battery electric vehicle market. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25045 |
| By: | Farmer, J. Doyne; Baumgärtner, Lennart |
| Abstract: | Since the 1980s, the global average of solar photovoltaic (PV) cost has decreased by about two orders of magnitude while the global average onshore wind cost has decreased by about one order of magnitude. But global averages are only part of the story: For both solar and wind, costs vary between countries by about an order of magnitude. We curate a comprehensive database of national costs and build predictive models for future costs by decomposing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) into its components and modeling them separately. For solar PV we find that since 1990 the module cost and the balance of system cost (BOS) have both declined roughly exponentially at rates of 12% per year. In contrast, wind turbine cost has declined roughly exponentially by 4% per year, while BOS cost has not declined at all. This suggests that total global wind cost will slowly approach a floor cost of about 35 USD/MWh, reaching about 43 USD/MWh in 2050, whereas global solar cost will continue to decline exponentially, reaching about 3-15 USD/MWh in 2050 and continuing to drop thereafter. For solar, around half of the cross-sectional variations in national LCOE costs is due to variations in capacity factors, though capital costs also play an important role. For wind, the cross-sectional variations are split approximately equally between capacity factor, capital costs, and investment costs. National BOS costs revert to global costs with a timescale of about 5-7 years, while variations in other factors are more persistent. We develop a simple model for predicting the deviations from global costs and show that it makes reasonable predictions with predictable errors. Finally, we compare our predictions to recent projections of integrated assessment models. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amz:wpaper:2025-12 |
| By: | Dejkam, Rahil (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | Energy poverty, a multidimensional socio-economic challenge, significantly affects the welfare of many people across Europe. This paper aims to alleviate energy poverty by exploring sustainable energy practices and policy interventions, using pilot household survey data collected within an EU project in Portugal and Denmark. A novel multidimensional energy poverty index (MEPI) is developed to assess energy poverty through different dimensions—such as heating and cooling comfort, financial strain, access to energy-efficient appliances, and overall health and well-being. In a next step, for selecting features, machine learning techniques, including recursive feature elimination and random forest analysis, are employed. These methods help to reduce the number of irrelevant and mutually correlated predictors. Subsequently, a logistic regression model is used to predict energy-poor households based on selected socio-economic and policy-related factors. The logistic regression model results indicate that sustainable energy-saving behaviors and supportive government policies can indeed effectively mitigate energy poverty. Furthermore, to analyze the impact of the determined features, the shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method is being utilized. Finally, the main findings are further evaluated via scenario simulation analysis. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional Energy Poverty Index (MEPI); Thermal Discomfort; Sustainable Energy-saving Practices; Logistic Regression; Recursive Feature Elimination-Cross Validation (RFE-CV) |
| JEL: | C60 C83 |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2024_001 |
| By: | Mert Gokcu; Eren Sezer |
| Abstract: | [TR] Akaryakit fiyatlari esas olarak urun fiyati, kar marjlari, gelir payi ve vergilerin toplamindan olusmaktadir. Nihai akaryakit fiyatlarinin olusumunda urun fiyati ve vergi kalemleri on plana cikmaktadir. Tarihsel olarak, vergi kaleminin nihai fiyat icindeki payinin gerilemesi ve urun fiyatinin payinin artmasi akaryakit fiyatlari acisindan urun fiyat gelismelerinin daha yakindan incelenmesi ihtiyacini dogurmaktadir. Nitekim, maliyet ve beklenti kanallariyla tuketici enflasyonunu etkileme potansiyeline sahip akaryakit fiyatlarinin tahmin modellerinde dogru degiskenler ile temsil edilmesi oldukca onemlidir. Bu calisma, oncelikle ulkemizdeki akaryakit fiyat olusumu hakkinda bilgi saglamaktadir. Ayrica, akaryakit fiyat tahmin modellerinde her akaryakit grubuna ozgu urun fiyatlarinin kullanilmasinin Brent petrol fiyatlarinin kullanimindan daha fazla bilgi icerigi olup olmadigini ekonometrik ve istatistiksel yontemler ile test etmektedir. Aciklama gucu ile birlikte orneklem disi tahmin performanslari dikkate alindiginda model sonuclari akaryakit fiyatlarini aciklamada Brent petrol yerine her akaryakit grubuna ozgu urun fiyatlarinin modellerde kullanilmasinin ilave bir bilgi sagladigina isaret etmektedir. Dolayisiyla, akaryakit urunlerinin fiyatlarina yonelik ongoruler olusturulurken her akaryakit grubuna ozgu urun fiyat gelismelerinin dikkate alinmasinin onem arz ettigi degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] Fuel prices are essentially the sum of product price, profit margins, portion of income and taxes. Product price and tax items come to the fore in the formation of final fuel prices. Historically, the decline in the share of taxes in the final price and the increase in the share of product price in fuel price formation necessitate a closer analysis of product price developments. As a matter fact, it is crucial that fuel prices, which have the potential to affect consumer inflation through cost and expectation channels, are represented by the proper variables in forecasting models. This study provides information on fuel price formation in Türkiye. Moreover, it is tested with econometric and statistical methods whether the use of product prices specific to each fuel group in fuel price forecasting models is more informative than the use of Brent oil prices. Considering the explanatory power and out-of-sample forecasting performances, the model results indicate that the use of product prices specific to each fuel group in the models instead of Brent oil in explaining fuel prices provides additional information. Therefore, it is considered important to take into account product price developments specific to each fuel group when formulating forecasts for the prices of fuel products. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2507 |
| By: | Dejkam, Rahil (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at predicting fuel poverty risk by applying clustering analysis to identify fuel- poor households. More specifically, it presents a novel approach to clustering based XGBoost modeling by integrating data from a representative household survey in England (N=11974). The unobserved heterogeneity in the fuel poverty households survey hides certain relationships between the contributory features in the survey and fuel poverty. We explore the application of the k-prototypes clustering method to group households into heterogeneous clusters. The study segments the entire dataset into three clusters. Four XGBoost models were developed on the entire dataset and on each cluster to predict household fuel poverty. The list of input features includes housing characteristics, socio-economic features, and energy cost variables. The results reveal significant variations in the influence of identified features on fuel poverty across clusters. For instance, Cluster 2, which primarily comprises economically vulnerable households aged 60-74 struggling with adequate despite moderate costs, highlight the necessity for targeted interventions. Furthermore, the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method is applied to analyze the impact of each feature on fuel poverty per cluster. The current study concludes that the clustering-based XGBoost model is a promising approach to identifying different groups of households at risk of fuel poverty and that policymakers can directly gain insights by determining the most relevant socio-economic features to tackle fuel poverty. |
| Keywords: | Fuel poverty; Clustering; K-prototypes; Socioeconomic characteristics; XGBoost modeling; SHAP method |
| JEL: | C60 C83 |
| Date: | 2023–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2023_012 |
| By: | Vladimir Otrachshenko (National Bank of Slovakia); Olga Popova (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to a better understanding of the drivers of electoral support for Green parties and the environmental actions they promote, which is crucial for ensuring the long-term feasibility of environmental policies. We examine whether individual environmental preferences translate into voting for Green parties and analyze the mechanisms behind this effect. Employing an individual-level survey from developed and developing economies matched with the political parties’ programs globally, we find that individuals who prefer environmental protection over economic growth are likely to translate their preferences into voting and supporting Green parties. These findings are robust to alternative definitions of Green parties and environmental preferences, as well as to potential endogeneity concerns. The key mechanisms behind this relationship are changes in the stringency of environmental regulations, individual economic insecurity, and individual- and country-level exposure to environmental changes. The effect of environmental preferences on Green party voting is less pronounced among individuals living in rural areas and those who are economically disadvantaged, including those with lower levels of education and income. These results suggest that support for Green parties and environmental policies is contingent on voters’ economic security even when environmental preferences are strong. |
| JEL: | D72 H11 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1120 |
| By: | Meuleneers, Lara (Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University); Engelmann, Linda (Chair of Communication Science, RWTH Aachen University); Ostojic, Suzana (Institute of Sustainability in Civil Engineering (INaB), RWTH Aachen University); Harzendorf, Freia (Institute of Climate and Energy Systems – Juelich Systems Analysis (ICE-2)); Sheykhha, Siamak (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Ziefle, Martina (Human-Computer Interaction Center, RWTH Aachen University); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Rezo, Daniel (Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University); Zapp, Petra (Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEK-STE), Forschungszentrum Jülich (FZJ)); Postweiler, Patrik (Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University); Deutz, Sarah (Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University); Traverso, Marzia (Institute of Sustainability in Civil Engineering (INaB), RWTH Aachen University); Stolten, Detlef (Institute of Climate and Energy Systems – Juelich Systems Analysis (ICE-2)); von der Aßen, Niklas (Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, RWTH Aachen University) |
| Abstract: | Implementing, integrating, and upscaling carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies is fundamental to meeting climate goals. To ensure climate benefits and avoid burden-shifting, CDR technologies need to be systematically assessed. This study presents key performance indicators and "showstoppers" for the assessment of CDR technologies considering the technical, environmental, economic, and social dimensions. From a literature review, we tailor an assessment framework specific to direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). Based on the knowledge gained from the tailored indicator set for DACCS, we derive KPIs and "showstoppers" that shall serve as an initial starting point for further comprehensive comparative assessment frameworks of CDR technologies in general. We integrate learnings such as data availability gaps that can restrict indicator assessment, the partly limited scope of CDR technology assessments in literature as well as the most relevant hotspots of CDR technologies described in CDR technology assessments. The DACCS-tailored assessment framework and the CDR technology KPIs and "showstoppers" are intended to guide assessments of CDR technologies, and DACCS in particular, and to help evaluators reflect on the choice of assessment indicators. The CDR technology KPIs and "showstoppers" also highlight critical aspects that need to be considered in feasibility assessments and political decision-making processes. Finally, we derive recommendations for improving the accessibility of the identified KPIs and "showstoppers". The presented review aims to facilitate the systematic assessment of CDR technologies to be able to then inform the effective, efficient, and sustainable deployment of CDR technologies. |
| Keywords: | CDR; carbon dioxide removal; negative emissions; negative emission technologies; DACCS; direct air capture and storage; assessment indicator selection; KPI; performance indicators; evaluation; assessment criteria; showstoppers |
| JEL: | A11 |
| Date: | 2025–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2024_008 |
| By: | Lutfu Sua; Haibo Wang; Jun Huang |
| Abstract: | Unpredictability of renewable energy sources coupled with the complexity of those methods used for various purposes in this area calls for the development of robust methods such as DL models within the renewable energy domain. Given the nonlinear relationships among variables in renewable energy datasets, DL models are preferred over traditional machine learning (ML) models because they can effectively capture and model complex interactions between variables. This research aims to identify the factors responsible for the accuracy of DL techniques, such as sampling, stationarity, linearity, and hyperparameter optimization for different algorithms. The proposed DL framework compares various methods and alternative training/test ratios. Seven ML methods, such as Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM), Stacked LSTM, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), CNN-LSTM, Deep Neural Network (DNN), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and Encoder-Decoder (ED), were evaluated on two different datasets. The first dataset contains the weather and power generation data. It encompasses two distinct datasets, hourly energy demand data and hourly weather data in Spain, while the second dataset includes power output generated by the photovoltaic panels at 12 locations. This study deploys regularization approaches, including early stopping, neuron dropping, and L2 regularization, to reduce the overfitting problem associated with DL models. The LSTM and MLP models show superior performance. Their validation data exhibit exceptionally low root mean square error values. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.03109 |
| By: | Yao, W.; Morganti, T. M.; Wu, J.; Borchers, M.; Anschütz, A.; Bednarz, L.‐K.; Bhaumik, A.; Böttcher, M.; Burkhard, K.; Cabus, T.; Chua, A. S.; Diercks, I.; Esposito, M.; Fink, M.; Fouqueray, M.; Gasanzade, F.; Geilert, S.; Hauck, J.; Havermann, F.; Hellige, I.; Hoog, S.; Jürchott, M.; Kalapurakkal, H. T.; Kemper, J.; Kremin, I.; Lange, I.; Lencina‐Avila, J. M.; Liadova, M.; Liu, F.; Mathesius, S.; Mehendale, N.; Nagwekar, T.; Philippi, M.; Luz, G. L. N.; Ramasamy, M.; Stahl, F.; Tank, L.; Vorrath, M.‐E.; Westmark, L.; Wey, H.‐W.; Wollnik, R.; Wölfelschneider, M.; Bach, W.; Bischof, K.; Boersma, M.; Daewel, U.; Fernández‐Méndez, M.; Geuer, J. K.; Keller, D. P.; Kopf, A.; Merk, C.; Moosdorf, N.; Oppelt, N.; Oschlies, A.; Pongratz, J.; Proelss, A.; Rehder, G. J.; Rüpke, L.; Szarka, N.; Thraen, D.; Wallmann, K.; Mengis, N. |
| Abstract: | Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) and geological carbon storage in the marine environment (mCS) promise to help mitigate global climate change alongside drastic emission reductions. However, the implementable potential of mCDR and mCS depends, apart from technology readiness, also on site-specific conditions. In this work, we explore different options for mCDR and mCS, using the German context as a case study. We challenge each option to remove 10 Mt CO₂ yr⁻¹, accounting for 8%–22% of projected hard-to-abate and residual emissions of Germany in 2045. We focus on the environmental, resource, and infrastructure requirements of individual mCDR and mCS options at specific sites, within the German jurisdiction when possible. This serves as an entry point to discuss main uncertainty factors and research needs beyond technology readiness, and, where possible, cost estimates, expected environmental effects, and monitoring approaches. In total, we describe 10 mCDR and mCS options; four aim at enhancing the chemical carbon uptake of the ocean through alkalinity enhancement, four aim at enhancing blue carbon ecosystems' sink capacity, and two employ geological off‐shore storage. Our results indicate that five out of 10 options would potentially be implementable within German jurisdiction, and three of them could potentially meet the challenge. Our exercise serves as an example on how the creation of more tangible and site-specific CDR options can provide a basis for the assessment of socio-economic, ethical, political, and legal aspects for such implementations. The approach presented here can easily be applied to other regional or national CDR capacity considerations. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkie:318073 |
| By: | Anne Épaulard (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, EUREQUA - Equipe Universitaire de Recherche en Economie Quantitative - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Gissela Landa (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Valentin Laprie (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | A travers la révision de sa Stratégie Nationale Bas Carbone en mars 2020, la France s'est engagée à atteindre l'objectif de la neutralité carbone à l'horizon 2050. Dans ce contexte, la Ville de Paris s'est dotée d'un Plan Climat 2024-2030 lui permettant de s'aligner avec les objectifs nationaux. Ce plan, adopté par le Conseil de Paris le 20 novembre 2024, contient 396 mesures destinées à sortir des énergies fossiles, réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre, et protéger les Parisiens des futurs épisodes caniculaires dans la capitale. Pour poser la question du financement d'un tel plan, il est nécessaire d'en évaluer le coût. C'est pourquoi en amont de l'adoption de son Plan Climat, la Ville de Paris a signé début 2024, une convention de recherche avec l'OFCE. L'OFCE doit proposer une analyse extérieure des mesures d'atténuation contenues dans le Plan Climat, vérifier la cohérence des mesures avec les objectifs de réduction de l'usage des énergies fossiles, proposer un chiffrage des besoins d'investissements, et les économies liées à un usage moindre d'énergie carbonée. L'OFCE est aussi invité à chiffrer les "co-bénéfices", comme ceux liés à la réduction de la pollution locale et du bruit et à l'éradication des passoires thermiques. Finalement, l'OFCE doit évaluer l'impact des investissements à réaliser sur l'économie de l'Île-de-France en termes d'emploi dans les différents secteurs. |
| Keywords: | climat, transition climatique, territoire parisien, impacts financiers, bénéfices |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-05073630 |
| By: | Riku Watanabe |
| Abstract: | This study introduces two heterogeneous industries into an endogenous growth model in a circular economy. In our model, there are two types of industries, brown industries using exhaustible resources for production, and green industries using recycled goods which are reproduced from the used final good by a recycling firm. Each industry switches the state as a result of R&D activities for innovation and greening. Innovation improves the level of productivity and occurs in both industries. In contrast, only firms in brown industries invest in R&D activities for greening, which transfers the brown industries toward the green industries. This paper examines the effect of recycling and the share of green industries on the growth rate. We show that an increase in the recycling rate does not have a negative effect on the economy, and improves the welfare of households. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1286 |
| By: | Benavides (Dir. proy.), Juan (FEDESARROLLO); Cabrales, Sergio (FEDESARROLLO) |
| Abstract: | Por una combinación de políticas públicas pasadas y actuales, que han introducido costos de transacción a la exploración y a la explotación del gas natural doméstico convencional y no convencional, indecisiones sobre uso, tamaño, localización y remuneración de nuevas facilidades de importación, inflexibilidades en contratación y cobro por distancia del sistema de transporte, Colombia se enfrenta a un déficit y posible desabastecimiento de gas natural en el corto plazo. Fedesarrollo presenta cinco notas técnicas sobre los impactos del déficit de gas natural debidos a la reducción de la oferta doméstica, las dificultades de ampliar las capacidades de importación en el corto plazo, y al aumento de precios para los usuarios finales por necesidades de importación. Estas notas tienen como objetivo dar elementos de juicio para la toma de decisiones dentro del Estado e informar a la opinión con datos públicos y argumentos orientados por el interés general. Los títulos de las notas técnicas son los siguientes: Nota 1. Incremento del precio del gas natural residencial en escenarios de mayor importación. Nota 2. Costo fiscal por mayores subsidios ante el aumento del precio del gas natural. Nota 3. Costos macroeconómicos de la reducción de la oferta de gas natural. Nota 4. Pobreza energética por reducción de la oferta y aumento del precio en gas natural. Nota 5. Política pública y regulación de corto y mediano plazo. |
| Keywords: | Gas; Gas Natural; Regulación; Exploración; Colombia |
| JEL: | L72 L95 O13 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025–05–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:021068 |
| By: | Maxime TERRIEUX |
| Abstract: | Malgré un cadre institutionnel robuste et un policy mix globalement sérieux, le modèle économique colombien s’essouffle. Depuis une décennie et la fin du supercycle des matières premières, la croissance est en baisse tendancielle et les indicateurs socio-économiques stagnent, signes d’une économie prise au piège du revenu intermédiaire. Cette stagnation met notamment en lumière des problèmes structurels de productivité et de sous-investissement. Plus important, la question de la pérennité du modèle économique à moyen-long terme persiste. La dépendance aux hydrocarbures reste élevée et face à l’épuisement annoncé des réserves (environ 7 ans résiduels pour le pétrole et le gaz), au besoin de diversification de l’économie et à la lutte contre le changement climatique, un changement de paradigme demeure nécessaire. Malgré les annonces de sortie des énergies fossiles par le gouvernement de M. Petro et un plan annoncé de réindustrialisation, aucune véritable diversification ne semble encore enclenchée.L’économie est par ailleurs contrainte par des finances publiques sous pression. La Colombie a perdu son statut Investment Grade depuis 2021, et malgré une règle budgétaire renforcée, elle peine à regagner sa crédibilité budgétaire aux yeux des investisseurs.Ce contexte d’enjeu double (modèle à bout de souffle et finances publiques contraintes) appelle des changements profonds. La transition énergétique offre une véritable opportunité de transformation de l’économie pour répondre au premier enjeu. Mais la capacité des autorités à mettre en oeuvre les différentes stratégies élaborées, et notamment une récente feuille de route de la transition énergétique, reste à démontrer, a fortiori dans un contexte politique (absence de consensus) et sécuritaire (échec de la Paix Totale) difficile. La restauration de la crédibilité budgétaire sera quant à elle cruciale pour créer un environnement favorable à l’investissement privé, appelé à être le premier moteur d’un nouveau modèle économique durable. |
| Keywords: | Colombie |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2025–04–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr18070 |
| By: | Yannis Dafermos (Department of Economics, SOAS University of London); Andrew McConnel (Pollination Group); Maria Nikolaidi (School of Accounting, Finance and Economics, University of Greenwich); Servaas Storm (Delft University of Technology); Boyan Yanovski (Dr. Roolfs Vent Solaire GmbH) |
| Abstract: | Recent years have seen an increasing use of environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (E-DSGE) models for analyzing the macroeconomic effects of the climate crisis. This paper explores to what extent these models are fit for purpose. We identify the limitations of the benchmark E-DSGE framework and explain how these limitations restrict the ability of this framework to meaningfully capture the macroeconomics of the climate crisis. We then explain how the assumptions behind these limitations can be relaxed, but argue that simply relaxing some of these assumptions in isolation is insufficient to address the problem. We therefore call for a broader use of other macroeconomic models, such as ecological stock-flow consistent (E-SFC) and ecological agent-based (E-AB) models, that address these limitations simultaneously. We explain how these models do not suffer from the pitfalls of the E-DSGE framework and outline how they need to improve to increase their usefulness as tools that can inform macroeconomic policy making in the Anthropocene. |
| Keywords: | climate crisis, DSGE modeling, stock-flow consistent modeling, agent-based modeling, green macroeconomic policies, green finance |
| JEL: | E10 E20 E40 E50 E60 |
| Date: | 2024–10–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp229 |
| By: | Bastian Wei{\ss}enburger; Lukas Karkossa; Annegret Stephan; Russell McKenna |
| Abstract: | Transporting hydrogen using pipelines is becoming increasingly relevant in the energy system, yet current cost estimates typically rely on simplistic approaches that overlook region-specific characteristics, leading to potential underestimations of costs. This paper examines hydrogen pipeline costs by incorporating regional geographical factors, such as land use, topography and existing infrastructure, together with political-economic factors represented through country-specific weighted average costs of capital. Using a GIS-based model, we demonstrate that the regional levelized cost of transportation can vary by up to a factor of three. Comparing our approach with conventional ones based on uniform detour factors in an existing European energy system analysis framework shows substantial deviations in trade flows and highlights the relevance of this work. We provide cost and route data for 4, 900 potential global pipeline routes. Our findings yield valuable insights for further research and stakeholders when assessing the economic viability of hydrogen as a competitive energy carrier. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.01124 |
| By: | Radek Stefanski; Lassi Ahlvik; Jørgen Juel Andersen; Torfinn Harding; Alex Trew |
| Abstract: | How large are the productivity differences arising from micro-level distortions, and how much of that is due to tax policy? Using over a century of field-level data (1900-2023), this paper examines the role of field-level revenue taxes in explaining misallocation in the oil and gas industry, a single large sector that produces a homogeneous, globally-traded good. A key advantage is our ability to link model-implied distortions directly to these observed tax rates. We show that misallocation is significant in the oil industry, and that over half of this misallocation can be accounted for by the dispersion in revenue tax rates across fields, exceeding the 2-25% explanatory power typical in studies of misallocation sources. We show that nearly all of the impact of this tax dispersion operates through the intensive margin (the inputs allocated at a field) rather than the extensive margin (the choice to enter a field). These findings have direct implications for tax policy. |
| Keywords: | keywords |
| JEL: | O47 O11 D24 Q32 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11915 |
| By: | Coelli, Federica (Dept. of Economics, University of Zurich); Pelzl, Paul (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Using oil and gas shocks as an exogenous source of business cycles at the U.S. commuting zone level, we provide novel evidence that local booms increase local patenting, especially in non-metropolitan areas. This reflects agglomeration economies that make incumbent inventors more productive. In contrast to total patenting, innovation in oil and gas – the sector closest to the boom – is countercyclical, consistent with higher opportunity costs of innovation in a booming industry. Our findings shed new light on the spatial dimension of innovation, inform recent debates on place-based industrial policy, and help to reconcile mixed evidence on the cyclicality of innovation. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; patents; local economic booms; agglomeration; natural resources |
| JEL: | L71 O12 O31 |
| Date: | 2025–05–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2025_020 |
| By: | Tatsuya UJITA; Hideaki MIYAJIMA |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the background contributing to the rapid growth of the ESG bond market in Japan by evaluating the validity of two opposing hypotheses: the signaling hypothesis and the greenwashing hypothesis. This study evaluates the validity of various types of ESG bonds issued from 2018 to 2023, with a particular focus on green bonds, which account for 55% of the total issuance. The findings suggest that (1) the issuance of these green bonds is primarily based on companies' commitments to environmental improvement, (2) the equity market reacts positively to this, (3) this is interpreted as resulting from a decrease in the cost of capital (WACC) supported by evaluations in the bond market (Greenium) and an increase in holdings by institutional investors with non-pecuniary motivation for ESG investment, and (4) improvements in environmental performance in terms of ESG scores and COâ‚‚ emissions are observed after the issuance. These results are consistent with the signaling hypothesis. On the other hand, for sustainability-linked bonds, clear results supporting the signaling hypothesis were not obtained, suggesting that the possibility of greenwashing cannot be ruled out at this point. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:25011 |
| By: | Anne Épaulard (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, EUREQUA - Equipe Universitaire de Recherche en Economie Quantitative - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Gissela Landa (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Valentin Laprie (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | La Ville de Paris, comme d'autres villes en France, s'est dotée d'un plan climat ambitieux. En cohérence avec l'objectif national et européen, ce plan vise à la neutralité carbone à l'horizon 2050. Compte tenu des spécificités de chaque territoire en termes de climat, de bâti et d'organisation de la ville et des transports, une réflexion sur les actions à mener au niveau local – en sus des actions décidées au niveau national – est incontournable. Nous évaluons ici les coûts et les bénéfices liés à la décarbonation de Paris en considérant l'ensemble des parties prenantes (la Ville de Paris, les ménages, les entreprises, les bailleurs sociaux, ainsi que l'État et des opérateurs). La décarbonation nécessite des changements de comportements en termes de mobilité, des investissements importants pour la rénovation thermique des bâtiments (isolation et système de chauffage) et des investissements dans des véhicules électriques. Par rapport à un scénario tendanciel dans lequel les émissions de CO2 diminuent trop lentement pour atteindre l'objectif d'émissions nettes nulles en 2050, ces actions requièrent des investissements supplémentaires de l'ordre de 2 milliards d'euros par an d'ici 2030, puis de 1, 5 milliard par an à l'horizon 2050. Les économies sur les factures énergétiques ne suffisent pas à rentabiliser ces investissements (sauf à considérer un renchérissement important du prix des énergies fossiles par rapport à l'électricité décarbonée). Cependant, les actions de décarbonation offrent des cobénéfices liés notamment à une meilleure qualité de l'air et à la réduction des embouteillages. La prise en compte de ces co-bénéfices, en plus de la réduction de la facture énergétique, assure la rentabilité sociale des actions de décarbonation. Le partage des coûts d'investissements se pose cependant, notamment pour la rénovation des logements privés compte tenu de la faiblesse des rendements financiers pour les ménages, de leurs contraintes de financement et de l'organisation en copropriété. Les investissements nécessaires à la décarbonation créeront des emplois, particulièrement dans le secteur du bâtiment. La disponibilité d'une main-d'oeuvre qualifiée et bien formée dans la rénovation énergétique est cruciale à l'échelle régionale. Toutefois, des obstacles freinent ces investissements et l'atteinte de performances énergétiques élevées : des intérêts divergents entre propriétaires et locataires, le manque de disponibilités financières des ménages ou les difficultés d'accès au crédit et les asymétries d'information entre experts du bâtiment et propriétaires non spécialistes. Les autorités locales peuvent atténuer ces barrières grâce à des politiques ciblées. |
| Date: | 2025–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-05067638 |
| By: | Aidan Coville (World Bank); Joshua Graff Zivin (UC San Diego - University of California [San Diego] - UC - University of California, NBER - The National Bureau of Economic Research); Arndt Reichert (Leibniz Universität Hannover=Leibniz University Hannover, World Bank); Ann-Kristin Reitmann (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Universität Passau [Passau]) |
| Abstract: | Solar technologies have been associated with private and social returns, but their technological potential often remains unachieved because of persistently low demand for high-quality products. In a randomized field experiment in Senegal, we assess the potential of three types of quality signaling to increase demand for highquality solar lamps. We find no effect on demand when consumers are offered a money-back guarantee but increased demand with a third-party certification or warranty, consistent with the notion that consumers are uncertain about product durability rather than their utility. However, despite the higher willingness to pay, the prices they would pay are still well below market prices for the average household, suggesting that reducing information asymmetries alone is insufficient to encourage wider adoption. Surprisingly, we also find that the effective quality signals in our setting stimulate demand for low-quality products by creating product-class effects among those least familiar with the product. |
| Keywords: | Information asymmetries, Quality signaling, Solar lamps, Willingness to pay, Becker-DeGroot-Marschak, Technology adoption |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05057994 |
| By: | Amponsah, Senyo Obed; Owusuaa-Foster, Judith |
| Abstract: | As churches preach stewardship of the Earth and social media influencers post pictures of bamboo toothbrushes, the crossroads between personal faith and green purchase intentions demands closer study. This study explores how a person’s depth of religious belief influences their intention to buy green products, and whether conspicuous virtue signaling (CVS) motivates those intentions. CVS refers to publicly showcasing one’s ethical actions, such as posting about eco-friendly purchases, to express moral identity or gain social approval. Drawing on Self-Determination Theory, Goal Content Theory, and the Theory of Reasoned Action, this research distinguishes between intrinsic religiosity and extrinsic religiosity and how they influence green choices when motivated by virtue signaling. The study employed structural equation modelling to analyse survey data from 206 students and young professionals in Ghana. The findings reveal that intrinsic religiosity significantly boosts green purchase intentions, while extrinsic religiosity does not directly lead to greener buying choices. However, both intrinsic and extrinsic religiosity increase virtue signaling behaviors. Interestingly, even individuals who engage in religious activities for social reasons are more likely to "show off" their eco-friendly behavior online, which in turn increases their likelihood of intending to buy green products. These results suggest that public displays of environmental responsibility, whether driven by genuine faith or social image, can powerfully motivate sustainable consumer behavior. The study offers new insights for marketers and policymakers: green campaigns can appeal not only to private moral values but also to the human desire for social recognition. Framing eco-friendly choices as both personally meaningful and publicly admirable could effectively engage religious audiences in promoting sustainability. |
| Date: | 2025–05–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:tfsx7_v1 |
| By: | Cunneen-Franco, Morgan |
| Abstract: | In an era of urgent climate action and housing crises across California, parking policy has emerged as a powerful lever for transforming cities. While pricing parking is widely recognized by transportation experts as an effective tool for managing urban space and reducing vehicle emissions, implementing such policies remains politically challenging. The stakes of resolving parking policy deadlocks extend far beyond local politics. Unpriced on-street parking in high demand areas creates a cascade of significant negative externalities: drivers waste time circling, traffic and pollution increases, and drivers are disincentivized from shifting travel modes. My research uses a combination of both primary data (interview) and secondary data (archival text) to investigate a revealing case study: the protracted seven-year debate over a 2013 proposal to implement paid downtown parking in Davis, California. Why did Davis’s paid parking initiative fail despite strong evidence supporting its benefits? And what policy design and political strategy lessons can we learn from this case to make paid parking policy implementation more feasible in other medium-sized cities? This study yields actionable recommendations for other cities seeking to implement paid on-street parking, including: the importance of capitalizing on momentum once paid parking is proposed, the need for elected officials to demonstrate political courage, the value of having multiple champions both inside and outside of government, the beneficial role of public education, and the impact of strong policy implementation. My research findings provide a roadmap for local governments to increase the efficiency of their transportation systems and advance California’s broader climate objectives while navigating the complex dynamics that often derail initiatives to price parking. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Pay parking, Travel demand management, Case studies, Policy analysis |
| Date: | 2025–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt0h6018f6 |
| By: | Harold Glenn A. Valera (BSP Research Academy, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas); Mark J. Holmes (University of Waikato); Vic K. Delloro (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we address the challenge of using aggregate data to study the effects of fuel and rice prices on overall inflation in emerging markets. Our quantile regression analysis using the Philippines' province-level monthly data from 1996 to 2024 finds a strong impact during periods of higher inflation. Indeed, this impact is verified in Indonesia, Thailand, and India. We also find that inflation targeting and rice tariffication reduce such an impact and that high-poverty and rice-deficit areas exhibit a higher fall in rice inflation effect post-tariffication. In addition, the impact of remittances on Philippine inflation is nonlinear, while it is asymmetric for the other three countries. |
| Keywords: | CPI inflation; energy and rice prices; remittances; quantile regression; panel data; emerging markets |
| JEL: | C33 E43 |
| Date: | 2025–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:25/05 |
| By: | Wilson Kang (California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, U.S.A); Russell Smyth (Department of Economics, Monash University, Clayton, Australia); Joaquin Vespignani (Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, University of Tasmania, Australia) |
| Abstract: | This paper applies and extends the macroeconomic fragility framework for studying the effects of supply chain disruptions, proposed by Acemoglu and Tahbaz-Salehi (2024), to incorporate the role of stockpiling, which stabilizes critical mineral markets and reduce macroeconomic fragility. A key prediction of the macroeconomic fragility framework is that equilibrium supply chains are inherently fragile, meaning that even small shocks can trigger cascading supply chain breakdowns that can significantly magnify the discontinuous response of aggregate supply to shocks, leading to higher volatility and prices of critical minerals. We highlight the important role that the non-technical risk premium plays in magnifying global supply chain shocks in the specific case of critical minerals. Using a mixed-frequency Structural VAR model with agnostic sign restrictions and newly constructed data on non-technical risk premiums, we estimate the impact of supply chain disruption, the non-technical risk premium and their interaction on the prices and volatility of six critical minerals. We find that global supply chain disruptions, magnified by non-technical risk premiums, significantly increase critical mineral prices and price volatility for all six critical minerals studied, indicating inefficient outcomes which we interpret as macroeconomic fragility in critical minerals markets. |
| Keywords: | Global Supply Chain Disruption, Critical Minerals, Non-technical Risk Premiums Macroeconomic Fragility |
| JEL: | F62 Q43 Q30 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2025-09 |
| By: | Pol Campos-Mercade (Department of Economics, Lund University); Claes Ek (Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg); Magnus Soederberg (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith University); Florian H. Schneider (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | Standard economic theory assumes that consumers ignore the externalities they create, such as emissions from burning fossil fuels and generating waste. In an incentivized study (N = 3, 718), we find that most people forgo substantial gains to avoid imposing negative externalities on others. Using administrative data on household waste, we show a clear link between such prosociality and waste behavior: prosociality predicts lower residual waste generation and higher waste sorting. Prosociality also predicts survey-reported pro-environmental behaviors such as lowering indoor temperature, limiting air travel, and consuming eco-friendly products. These findings highlight the importance of considering social preferences in environmental policy. |
| Keywords: | social preferences, prosociality, environmental behaviors, externalities |
| JEL: | D01 D62 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:kucebi:2506 |
| By: | François-Charles Wolff (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Pierre-Alexandre Mahieu (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Brice Trouillet (LETG - Nantes - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique - UBO - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - LETG - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 - UBO - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - IGARUN - Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Humanités - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Alexia Pigeault (LETG - Nantes - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique - UBO - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - LETG - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 - UBO - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - IGARUN - Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Humanités - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, CAPACITÉS SAS - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Nicolas Rollo (LETG - Nantes - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique - UBO - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - LETG - Littoral, Environnement, Télédétection, Géomatique UMR 6554 - UBO - Université de Brest - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Univ - IGARUN - Institut de Géographie et d'Aménagement Régional de l'Université de Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Humanités - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | To achieve its renewable energy production targets, France is aiming to create 50 new offshore wind farms by 2050. In line with the debate on maritime planning organised by the Commission nationale du débat public, (CNDP – French National Commission for Public Debate), a mixed survey combining economics and geography was conducted to study the spatial preferences of French households in terms of the location of these future offshore wind farms. The results of this discrete choice experiment show that respondents prefer the offshore wind farms to be located far from the coasts without overlapping with marine protected areas or fishing grounds, and are opposed to wind farms that have an insufficiently local link to the land. Support for the project, consisting of 50 offshore wind farms, however, remains mixed, with almost 30% of respondents opposed. Nevertheless, the level of support for the project does not change people's preferences in terms of the location of the offshore wind farms. |
| Abstract: | La France a des objectifs ambitieux pour augmenter la part d'énergies renouvelables dans sa consommation d'énergie, notamment en ce qui concerne le développement de l'éolien offshore. Une enquête réalisée en mars 2024 auprès de 2400 personnes, combinant la méthode des programmes et des classements d'attributs et de leurs modalités, révèle les préférences spatiales des Français à l'égard de cette technologie. Les répondants préfèrent que les parcs éoliens soient situés à une distance suffisante pour ne pas être visibles depuis les côtes et qu'ils n'interfèrent pas avec les espaces naturels protégés ou les zones de pêche. Ils s'opposent aux parcs ayant des liens éloignés avec le territoire et favorisent une concentration faible des installations, même si les préférences sont moins tranchées pour ce dernier attribut. Moins de la moitié des enquêtés se déclarent favorables à l'installation de 50 parcs éoliens offshore en France d'ici 2050, mais ce soutien modéré n'affecte pas les tendances générales pour les préférences spatiales. |
| Keywords: | Offshore wind farm, Spatial preference, Renewable energies, Discrete choice experiment DCE, Eoliennes en mer, Préférence spatiale, Energies renouvelables, Expérience de choix discret |
| Date: | 2025–04–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04615741 |
| By: | Haitao CHENG; Jota ISHIKAWA; Nori TARUI |
| Abstract: | As consumers become more environment-conscious, firms enhance their corporate environ- mental responsibility (CER) practices, such as adopting greener technologies, producing environment- friendly goods (i.e., CER goods) and capturing the price premium associated with environmental quality. Existing studies on the CER goods market adopt a closed-economy framework because CER verification and certification have traditionally been conducted locally. However, as CER certification becomes globally accessible, it is crucial to examine how firms from different countries compete in the CER goods market. We apply a North-South trade model to analyze the effects of stricter CER standards, trade liberalization, and stronger environmental awareness on firms’ CER adoption decisions under two scenarios: CER is recognized only in the North, and CER is recognized in both North and South. Our findings indicate that both stricter CER standards and greater environmental awareness encourage firms to adopt CER, regardless of the scope of CER recognition. In contrast, the impact of trade liberalization depends on whether CER is recognized in the South. When CER is recognized only in the North, trade liberalization promotes CER adoption. However, when it is recognized in both North and South, trade liberalization discourages CER adoption. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25043 |
| By: | Konar, Anushree; Tripathi, Sabyasachi |
| Abstract: | Identifying the optimal population size at which cities maximize economic benefits while minimizing congestion and pollution is a challenge. This research explores the optimal city size by examining the relationship between population and economic performance, measured by city GDP. Using data from OECD regions for about 562 cities, the analysis employs a quadratic regression model to test an inverse U-shaped relationship between city population and GDP in 2020. The empirical results show that cities initially experience economic growth as populations increase, but after a certain point (8.85 million), the benefits diminish due to congestion and pollution. The study concludes that an optimal city size exists, balancing the advantages of agglomeration with the costs of urban expansion. Additionally, population density, territorial fragmentation, working-age population, and built-up area positively affect city GDP, whereas air pollution negatively impacts it. Finally, several policies are recommended for sustainable urban development and efficient resource allocation. |
| Keywords: | Urban growth, optimal city size, population size, economic measurement, OECD cities. |
| JEL: | R0 R1 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–05–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124673 |
| By: | Heinisch, Katja; Scaramella, Fabio; Schult, Christoph |
| Abstract: | Accurate macroeconomic forecasts are essential for effective policy decisions, yet their precision depends on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. This paper examines the extent to which assumption errors affect forecast accuracy, introducing the average squared assumption error (ASAE) as a valid instrument to address endogeneity. Using double/debiased machine learning (DML) techniques and partial linear instrumental variable (PLIV) models, we analyze GDP growth forecasts for Germany, conditioning on key exogenous variables such as oil price, exchange rate, and world trade. We find that traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) techniques systematically underestimate the influence of assumption errors, particularly with respect to world trade, while DML effectively mitigates endogeneity, reduces multicollinearity, and captures nonlinearities in the data. However, the effect of oil price assumption errors on GDP forecast errors remains ambiguous. These results underscore the importance of advanced econometric tools to improve the evaluation of macroeconomic forecasts. |
| Keywords: | accuracy, external assumptions, forecasts, forecast errors, machine learning |
| JEL: | C14 C53 E02 E37 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:318189 |
| By: | Maxime TERRIEUX |
| Abstract: | A pesar de contar con instituciones sólidas y una combinación de políticas públicas por lo general acertada, el modelo económico colombiano se está quedando sin fuerza. Desde hace una década, tras el fin del superciclo de las materias primas, el crecimiento económico ha registrado una tendencia descendente y los indicadores socioeconómicos se han estancado, lo que evidenciauna economía inmersa en la trampa del ingreso medio. Este estancamiento pone de manifiesto los problemas estructurales relacionados con la productividad y la falta de inversión. Más importante aún, persiste la cuestión de la sostenibilidad del modelo económico a mediano y largo plazo. La dependencia de los hidrocarburos sigue siendo alta. Ante el agotamiento previsto de las reservas (quedan unos siete años para el petróleo y el gas), la necesaria diversificación de la economía y la lucha contra el cambio climático, se impone un cambio de paradigma. Aunque el presidente Petro ha anunciado el abandono progresivo de los combustibles fósiles y un plan de reindustrialización, parece que aún no se ha iniciado una verdadera dinámica de diversificación. La economía también se encuentra limitada por unas finanzas públicas sometidas a fuerte presión.En 2021 Colombia perdió el grado de inversión y, a pesar del fortalecimiento de la regla fiscal, el país enfrenta dificultades para recuperar su credibilidad fiscal ante los inversionistas. Este doble desafío –el agotamiento del modelo económico y las restricciones fiscales– exige cambios profundos. La transición energética representa una oportunidad real para transformar la economía y responder al primero de estos desafíos. Sin embargo, está por demostrarse la capacidad de las autoridades para implementar las distintas estrategias formuladas, en particular la hoja de ruta para la transición energética presentada recientemente, máxime cuando el contexto político (falta de consenso) y de seguridad (reveses de la Paz Total) es complejo. Al mismo tiempo, es crucial recuperar la credibilidad fiscal para crear un entorno propicio para la inversión privada, llamada a convertirse en el principal motor de un nuevo modelo económico sostenible. |
| Keywords: | Colombie |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2025–05–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:es18070 |
| By: | Michela Limardi (Université de Lille); Jordan Loper (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Alexandre Volle (TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how public climate regulation influences NGO activism against firms, offering novel insights into the interaction between formal regulation and civil society. Using a unique dataset combining firm-level NGO targeting with cross-country variation in regulation, we show that regulation significantly boosts NGO activity, even after controlling for visibility shocks like climate disasters. We identify two mechanisms: a salience mechanism, where regulation increases public attention, and a complementarity mechanism, where it enhances NGOs' monitoring capacity. Our findings highlight the complementary roles of regulation and civil society in shaping corporate behavior, offering new perspectives on climate governance and policy design. |
| Keywords: | Civil Society, Climate Regulation, Environmental Governance, NGO activism |
| Date: | 2025–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cdiwps:hal-05047276 |
| By: | Francis Perrin |
| Abstract: | Le 17 avril 2025, le géant britannique BP a annoncé qu’une première cargaison de gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) avait été exportée à partir de ressources gazières exploitées au large du Sénégal et de la Mauritanie. Ces deux pays sont devenus, pour la première fois dans leur histoire, des exportateurs de GNL. Précédemment, il y avait eu trois autres dates particulièrement marquantes dans la valorisation des hydrocarbures dans cette zone. Fin décembre 2024, la production de gaz naturel offshore avait débuté au large de ces deux pays. En février 2025 débutait la production de GNL. Et, auparavant, en juin 2024, le Sénégal était devenu un pays producteur de pétrole offshore. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb029_25 |
| By: | Giovanni Angelini; Maria Elena Bontempi; Luca De Angelis; Paolo Neri; Marco Maria Sorge |
| Abstract: | Public perceptions of climate change arguably contribute to shaping private adaptation and support for policy intervention. In this paper, we propose a novel Climate Concern Index (CCI), based on disaggregated web-search volumes related to climate change topics, to gauge the intensity and dynamic evolution of collective climate perceptions, and evaluate its impacts on the business cycle. Using data from the United States over the 2004:2024 span, we capture widespread shifts in perceived climate-related risks, particularly those consistent with the postcognitive interpretation of affective responses to extreme climate events. To assess the aggregate implications of evolving public concerns about the climate, we estimate a proxy-SVAR model and find that exogenous variation in the CCI entails a statistically significant drop in both employment and private consumption and a persistent surge in stock market volatility, while core inflation remains largely unaffected. These results suggest that, even in the absence of direct physical risks, heightened concerns for climate-related phenomena can trigger behavioral adaptation with nontrivial consequences for the macroeconomy, thereby demanding attention from institutional players in the macro-financial field. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2505.04669 |
| By: | Pal, Hemendra |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of the Russia- Ukraine conflict on Brent Crude commodity pricing using World Bank time series data. The conflict’s influence on global oil and gas markets, characterized by intricate supply and demand dynamics, is analyzed through advanced time series techniques and machine learning modeling. Univariate models such as Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) are employed to discern temporal patterns in Brent Crude prices. Additionally, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing State Space (ETS) models are utilized to capture complex seasonality and trends in the data. Moving beyond traditional methods, multivariate models are leveraged to comprehensively grasp the multifaceted impact of the conflict. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Factor Analysis are applied to uncover latent variables influencing Brent Crude pricing in the context of global trade disruptions, inflation, and diplomatic negotiations. These extracted components are then integrated with ensemble machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest, Extra Tree Classifier, Gradient Boosting, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Decision Trees. The fusion of multivariate time series analysis and machine learning empowers a holistic understanding of the conflict’s intricate repercussions on commodity prices. The analysis reveals that not only direct factors related to geopolitical tensions but also indirect economic data are crucial in determining Brent Crude prices. Factors such as declining industrial demand for precious metals like silver, disruptions in vehicle production due to supply chain breakdowns, reduced demand for automotive auto-catalysts, weak copper demand from China, and unexpected changes in steel consumption have contributed to the observed fluctuations in Brent Crude prices. Through a comprehensive exploration of time series data and advanced machine learning modeling, this research contributes to a a clearer understanding of the complex connections between the crisis in Russia and Ukraine and the price of commodities globally. The findings offer valuable insights for policy-makers, industry stakeholders, and investors seeking to navigate the complex landscape of commodity markets during periods of geopolitical instability. |
| Keywords: | Brent Crude Prices, Univariate Models, Multivariate Models, Ensemble Machine Learning, PCA, SARIMA, ETS |
| JEL: | C15 C32 C38 C45 C51 C53 C55 O57 |
| Date: | 2023–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:124770 |
| By: | Andreas Irmen (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Maria Krelifa (DEM, Université du Luxembourg); Anastasia Litina (University of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | We study an under-explored implication of population ageing, i. e., its effect on country-level environmental outcomes and on individual-level environmental attitudes. In doing so, we propose a novel classification of country-level environmental outcomes, namely action-requiring and nature-concerning. The borderline between these two categories lies in the level of civic engagement required to fulfill them. Using panel data from a broad set of countries (1995–2018), we find that population ageing is linked to improvements in environmental outcomes that require minimal civic engagement, while it shows no clear association with outcomes that depend on active participation. Analysis of survey data (2006–2016) further suggests that living in ageing societies lowers individuals’ environmental engagement, without affecting underlying environmental concern |
| Keywords: | ageing, environmental policy, individual attitudes, demographic change. |
| JEL: | J10 Q57 Q58 Q59 Z19 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:25-08 |
| By: | Shui, Ailun (University of Groningen); van den Berg, Gerard J. (University of Groningen); Mierau, Jochen O. (University of Groningen); Viluma, Laura (University of Groningen) |
| Abstract: | A large body of literature demonstrates that exposure to major adverse events such as natural disasters affects physical and mental health. Less is known about health consequences of long- term exposure to smaller, recurring shocks such as mining-induced earthquakes. Leveraging data from the Dutch Lifelines Cohort Study and Biobank and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, we examine mental health effects of frequent earthquakes generated by the extraction of natural gas, which was a major source of economic revenue for the Netherlands. Long-term exposure is captured by the accumulated peak ground acceleration. We employ individual-level fixed effects models to deal with selective exposure. We find that exposure increases depression and anxiety symptoms. Our results are robust to selective migration and to varying the exposure indicator. The results support a reassessment of the societal costs of the mining of natural gas. |
| Keywords: | anxiety, depression, mental health, induced earthquakes, mining, stress, gas-extraction |
| JEL: | I10 I18 Q33 Q53 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17925 |
| By: | Choque Sánchez, Edison (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana); Camacho Urquizo, Silvana (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana); Nina Vargas, Marco Leandro (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana) |
| Abstract: | El cambio climático representa el desafío más crítico para la humanidad, evidenciando las tensiones del sistema económico actual y la necesidad de alcanzar metas de desarrollo como la eliminación de la pobreza, el acceso a servicios esenciales, y el crecimiento económico sostenible. Este documento analiza cómo el presupuesto público puede ser una herramienta clave para reducir emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero y mitigar riesgos climáticos, al tiempo que identifica los programas y actividades que generan beneficios o impactos negativos en el clima. En particular, el estudio se centra en el presupuesto del Gobierno Central de Bolivia entre 2019 y 2023, destacando que la asignación para enfrentar el cambio climático ha disminuido, mientras que el presupuesto que contribuye al fenómeno sigue siendo considerable y volátil. A través de una metodología analítica, se clasifican sectores como energía, transporte y medio ambiente, revelando la urgencia de reorientar recursos para cumplir con los compromisos climáticos y fomentar políticas públicas efectivas. Este análisis no solo expone desafíos, sino que también ofrece una base para mejorar la planificación fiscal climática en el país. |
| Keywords: | Cambio climático; Presupuesto público; Política fiscal; Finanzas climáticas; Desarrollo sostenible |
| JEL: | H23 H61 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025–06–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:iisecd:2024_005 |
| By: | Karsten Heinz Schönbach (Free University of Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Ever since the publication of Henry Turner's German Big Business and the Rise of Hitler, most histo-rians in both Germany and the United States have dismissed the idea that support from German major industry played a key role in bringing Hitler to power. This consensus is wrong, as I have shown in a series of works that began with my doctoral dissertation at the Free University of Berlin and now extends to more than ten different works, including two books. These works rely extensively on ar-chival resources that were either inaccessible or only selectively open to earlier researchers. This paper analyzes in detail one of the most crucial episodes in Hitler's rise to power – one that pre-vious historians, particularly Turner, have profoundly misjudged thanks in part at least to the short-comings in the documentary sources available to them. This is the history of the political relations be-tween Hitler, the NSDAP leadership, and the German "coal industrialists" in the period from 1926 to 1933 and the key role these firms played in supporting and financing the eventual Nazi triumph. |
| Keywords: | German Coal Industry; Great Depression, Rise of Nazis, Germany Economic History |
| JEL: | D72 J52 N14 N34 N54 N64 P12 |
| Date: | 2024–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:thk:wpaper:inetwp230 |
| By: | Wietschel, Martin; Thielmann, Axel; Gnann, Till; Hettesheimer, Tim; Langkau, Sabine; Neef, Christoph; Plötz, Patrick; Sievers, Luisa; Tercero Espinoza, Luis Alberto; Edler, Jakob; Krail, Michael; Doll, Claus; Link, Steffen; Stephan, Annegret; Scherrer, Aline; Klobasa, Marian; Speth, Daniel; Wicke, Tim; Schicho, Michaela; Kamamia, Ann Wahu; Loibl, Antonia |
| Abstract: | Wie entwickeln sich die Elektromobilität und Batterien für E-Autos weiter? Wie fällt die Umweltbilanz von E-Pkw aus? Was hat sich bei Reichweiten getan, was passiert mit Altbatterien und wie hoch ist die Brandgefahr? Diese und viele weitere Fragen entlang der gesamten Batterie-Wertschöpfungskette behandelt das Fraunhofer ISI im Policy Brief »Batterien für Elektroautos - Faktencheck und Handlungsbedarf - ein Update |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisipp:318377 |
| By: | Yuhei MIYAUCHI; Kentaro NAKAJIMA; Stephen J. REDDING |
| Abstract: | We develop a tractable quantitative framework for modelling the rich patterns of spatial mobility observed in smartphone data. We show that travel is frequently undertaken as part of a travel itinerary, defined as a journey starting and ending at home that can include more than one intermediate stop on a given day. We show that these travel itineraries provide microfoundations for consumption externalities and generate rich patterns of complementarity and substitutability between locations. We show that the consumption externalities implied by travel itineraries are central to matching quasi-experimental evidence from the shift to WFH. We find that these consumption externalities are key drivers of the agglomeration of economic activity in central cities and shape the relative welfare gains from alternative transport improvements in favor of investments in central cities. |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25048 |