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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Mercer-Blackman, Valerie Anne; Milivojevic, Lazar; Victor Mylonas |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effects of gradually introducing a US$25/ton CO2-equivalent carbon tax in South Asian economies using the Climate Policy Assessment Tool (CPAT). The results for South Asia suggest that monetized welfare co-benefits net of efficiency costs from such a tax—regardless of what other economies or regions do—are resoundingly positive, at 1.4 percent of GDP in 2030. Revenues from the carbon tax are estimated at 1.3 percent of GDP in 2030, which is substantial for a region with a low tax-to-GDP ratio. Once these revenues are recycled, the Keynesian multiplier effect through increased public investment and transfers to households is associated with slightly positive net economic growth rate effects. Household incidence analysis shows that the carbon tax can be designed as an equity-enhancing policy, given net reductions in the Gini coefficient for consumption from revenue recycling. The carbon tax is also associated with a 2 percent weighted average input cost increase across economic sectors in 2030. Finally, the paper discusses selected results on and the political economy of a comprehensive energy price reform package (fossil fuel subsidy phaseout and carbon tax), with broad guidance on its implementation. Overall, the paper provides supportive evidence for the green transition, showing that there need not be a trade-off between inclusive growth and going green in South Asia. |
| Date: | 2023–05–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10462 |
| By: | Agnolucci, Paolo; Fischer, Carolyn; Heine, Dirk; Montes De Oca Leon, Mariza; Pryor, Joseph Dixon Callisto; Hallegatte, Stephane |
| Abstract: | While countries increasingly commit to pricing greenhouse gases directly through carbon taxes or emissions trading systems, indirect forms of carbon pricing—such as fuel excise taxes and fuel subsidy reforms—remain important factors affecting the mitigation incentives in an economy. Taken together, how can policy makers think about the overall price signal for carbon emissions and the incentive it creates This paper develops a methodology for calculating a total carbon price applied to carbon emissions in a sector, fuel, or the whole economy. It recognizes that rarely is a single carbon price applied across an economy; many direct carbon pricing instruments target specific sectors or even fuels, much like indirect taxes on fossil fuels; and carbon and fuel taxes can be substituted one for another. Tracking progress on carbon pricing thus requires following both kinds of price interventions, their coverage, and specific exemptions. This inclusive total carbon pricing measure can facilitate progress in discussions on minimum carbon price commitments and inform assessments of the pricing of carbon embodied in traded goods. Calculations across 142 countries from 1991 to 2021 indicate that although direct carbon pricing now covers roughly a quarter of global emissions, the global total carbon price is not that much higher than it was in 1994 when the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entered into force. Indirect carbon pricing still comprises the lion’s share of the global total carbon price, and it has stagnated. Taking these policy measures into account reveals that many developing countries—particularly net fuel importers—contribute substantially to global carbon pricing. Tackling fuel subsidy reform and pricing coal and natural gas emissions more fully would have a profound effect on aligning carbon prices across countries and sectors and with their climate costs. |
| Date: | 2023–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10486 |
| By: | Schoder, Christian; Tercioglu, Remzi Baris |
| Abstract: | This paper employs an estimated dynamic stochastic open-economy macro framework to identify policy interventions that allow Türkiye to achieve net-zero emissions by 2053 while respecting important feasibility constraints such as fiscal consolidation and sovereign debt stability as well as compensation of low-income households. The policy mix includes a carbon tax, a renewable energy subsidy, transfer payments, public infrastructure investments, a bad bank for stranded fossil fuel assets, and the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies and public investment. Although the proposed policy package has only moderate effects on gross domestic product, transition risks involve declining exports and fossil asset stranding. The paper highlights the importance of transparent policy communication and a credible commitment to the net-zero agenda to ensure an orderly transition. Improving the rule of law and access to green finance considerably support the private sector-led low-carbon transition. |
| Date: | 2023–08–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10551 |
| By: | Abankwah, Stephen Asare; Afriyie, Samuel Osei |
| Abstract: | The collective goal of achieving net-zero emissions in the coming decades has sparked considerable debate in recent years. The nature of the energy transition in fossil fuel-dependent economies suggests the presence of both implicit and explicit gaps in country-level commitments to the transition. Utilizing data from 1996 to 2019 from the BRICS+ bloc, this study investigates the heterogeneous effects of key economic and environmental factors on energy transition across the distribution of energy transition levels using a smoothed quantile instrumental variable regression model with common correlated effects (CCE) adjustments. The analysis incorporates macroeconomic, environmental and governance variables, while addressing endogeneity through instrumental variables, such as fossil fuel reserves and temperature anomalies. The results reveal significant heterogeneity in the relationships across quantiles. Specifically, CO2 emissions exhibit a consistently negative impact on energy transition, with the effect fluctuating across the distribution. GDP and population growth negatively influence energy transition, with stronger effects at higher quantiles, indicating structural constraints in high-transition countries. Notably, the heterogeneity of inflation effects, though insignificant, suggests dynamic economic pressures at varying energy transition levels. These findings underline the importance of targeted, quantile-specific policy interventions to accelerate energy transition, emphasizing decarbonization and market reforms. The CCE adjustments ensure robustness by accounting for cross-sectional dependence, and sensitivity analyses confirm the validity of the results. This study contributes to the growing literature on sustainable energy by providing novel insights into the distributional dynamics of energy transition drivers. |
| Keywords: | Energy transition analysis, CO2 emissions policies, instrumental variables, common correlated effects, quantile regression |
| JEL: | Q43 Q5 Q50 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123758 |
| By: | Jayan, Vishnu |
| Abstract: | Due to climate change, all countries in the world are trying to change energy production from fossil fuel to renewable energy resources. Solar is the most acceptable energy alternative because of the cheap cost of Solar Photovoltaic cells that convert sunlight into electricity and the availability of sunlight which is the energy source. India also brings some policy interventions to change the energy production paradigm from fossil fuels to renewable fuels. The study briefly discusses solar parks, an idea of a centralized solar energy production system to generate more energy from renewable, echo-friendly ways to fight against climate change, and its distribution and progress using available data and tools like GIS. |
| Date: | 2023–05–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4nurv_v1 |
| By: | Glenk, Gunther; Maier, Rebecca; Reichelstein, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Companies in various industries are under growing pressure to assess the costs of decarbonizing their operations. This paper develops a generic abatement cost concept to identify the cost-efficient combination of technological and operational changes firms would need to implement to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions from current production processes. The abatement cost curves resulting from our framework further serve as a decision tool for managers to determine the optimal abatement levels in the presence of environmental regulations, such as carbon pricing. We calibrate our model in the context of uropean cement producers that must obtain emission permits under the European Emission Trading System (EU ETS). We find that a price of €85 per ton of carbon dioxide (CO2), as observed on average in 2023 under the EU ETS, incentivizes firms to reduce their annual direct emissions by about one-third relative to the status quo. Yet, this willingness to abate emissions increases sharply if carbon prices were to rise above the €100 per ton of CO2 benchmark. |
| Keywords: | marginal abatement cost, carbon emissions, industrial decarbonization, cement production |
| JEL: | M1 O33 Q42 Q52 Q54 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:312180 |
| By: | Hornbach, Jens; Rammer, Christian |
| Abstract: | After the beginning of the war in Ukraine, energy prices in Germany increased drastically. The paper analyses responses of German firms to this energy price shock. A variety of measures and reactions at the firm-level are explored, such as substituting machinery and equipment by less energy consuming alternatives, a change of energy suppliers, the use of digital technologies to reduce energy consumption, the introduction of energy management systems, relocation or closure of energy intensive activities, or replacing fossil by other energy sources. The analysis is based on data from the German part of the Community Innovation Survey (CIS). The econometric results show that a high affectedness by the energy price shock in 2022 triggers the substitution of machinery and equipment by more energy efficient alternatives. This measure in turn is correlated to a decrease of electricity consumption and oil use, and it promotes the substitution of fossil energy sources by renewables. The results also show that high energy costs can lead to stopping or relocating energy-intensive activities. Furthermore, firms with high energy intensity show negative sales growth from 2022 to 2023. |
| Keywords: | Energy price shock, green energy firm behaviour, probit and quantile regressions |
| JEL: | C21 C25 L25 Q21 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:312193 |
| By: | Neupert-Zhuang, Menglu; Schenker, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Investments in energy technologies are substantially governed by climate policy. We demonstrate analytically that price-based instruments, such as carbon-taxes, and quantity-based regulations, like emission trading systems, have distinct effects on the (co-)variance of power plant profits. If investors are risk-averse, these differ- ences lead to divergent investment portfolios, breaking the equivalence of price- and quantity-based policy instruments under risk-neutrality. Using the European power sector as a case study, we calibrate an electricity market model with stochastic de- mand and find that, compared to a carbon tax, emissions trading pushes up the share of fossil fuel assets in a representative investor's portfolio since counteracting effects of permit and electricity prices reduce the covariance with other technologies, thereby enhancing the diversification value of these assets. Uncertainty about the stringency of carbon taxes leads to lower shares of fossil fuel assets with increasing risk aversion. |
| Keywords: | Climate policy, Investment under uncertainty, Modern Portfolio Theory, Risk aversion |
| JEL: | D81 E22 G11 P48 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:312183 |
| By: | Johannes Stangl; Andr\'as Borsos; Stefan Thurner |
| Abstract: | While many national and international climate policies clearly outline decarbonization targets and the timelines for achieving them, there is a notable lack of effort to objectively monitor progress. A significant share of the transition from fossil fuels to low-carbon energy will be borne by industry and the economy, requiring both the decarbonization of the electricity grid and the electrification of industrial processes. But how quickly are firms adopting low-carbon electricity? Using a unique dataset on Hungary\textquotesingle{}s national supply chain network, we analyze the energy portfolios of 27, 067 firms, covering more than 80% of gas, 70% of electricity, and 50% of oil consumption between 2020 and 2023. This enables us to objectively measure the trends of decarbonization efforts at the firm level. Although more than half of firms have increased their share of low-carbon electricity, many have reduced it. Extrapolating the observed trends, we find a transition of only 20% of total energy consumption to low-carbon electricity by 2050. The current speed of transition in the economy is not sufficient to reach climate neutrality by 2050. If firms would adopt the same efforts as the decarbonization frontrunners in their industry, a low-carbon energy share of up to 86% could be reached, putting climate targets within reach. As a key barrier, we identify a \textquotesingle{}lock-in\textquotesingle{} effect, where firms with a high ratio of fossil fuel costs per revenue are less likely to transition. Accelerating the energy transition will require targeted policies that address these barriers, ensuring that firms can align their decarbonization strategies with best practices. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.01572 |
| By: | Fronteddu, Antonio |
| Abstract: | The pursuit of global carbon neutrality makes the energy transition process no longer procrastinable. The switch towards renewable-based energy systems is paving the way for new forms of energy governance that prioritise the role of commons by demarketising access to energy. However, governments’ strategies worldwide seem to prioritise innovation in the raw materials (sun, wind, etc.) rather than in governance – favouring the continued extraction of energy from resource-rich regions. This work will analyse the case of Sardinia as an example where these two phenomena intersect contradictorily, by comparing the bottom-up nature of energy communities (ECs) vis-á-vis the top-down nature of public-private initiatives, alongside their policymaking trajectories. The key insights that will stem from this thesis elucidate a continuum with prior top-down policies of economic extractivism operated by the Italian government in Sardinia. Such top-down policies are conceptualised thanks to core and energy periphery theories and can explain the current mainstream regime of energy transition. Alternative strategies to pursue policy are conceptualised thanks to the energy democracy theory. Such theory envisions an active citizen engagement alongside the sustainable consumption of renewable energy and resources within the realm of energy communities. Therefore, the thesis will conclude that although large-scale top-down policies are being operated in the island, with special reference to the energy transition, energy communities can forge bottom-up alternative examples of policymaking, enabling an energy transition that can cross-tackle long-standing problems of Sardinian society, such as a stagnant economy, depopulation, self-determination, issues of land, landscapes, and pollution. |
| Date: | 2023–05–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pgv78_v1 |
| By: | Zahid, Hamza |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of U.S. energy shocks on international economic activity and the world oil market. The analysis uses a set of factor-augmented vector autoregressions to identify and compare the impact of unanticipated changes in U.S. energy efficiency and U.S. oil supply over 1980Q1–2019Q4. The identification strategy relies on the fact that positive shocks in both cases decrease the real price of oil and increase global gross domestic product (GDP), while generating opposite implications for world oil production and consumption. On average, U.S. energy efficiency shocks have a larger impact on the real price of oil and global GDP than U.S. oil supply shocks. Historical decompositions suggest that in 2010–19, U.S. oil supply shocks increased GDP by 2 percent, while (negative) energy efficiency shocks decreased global GDP by 1.3 percent. The latter effect dominated during the second shale boom in 2017–19. Considerable heterogeneity exists in cross-country responses, with favorable implications for GDP in advanced and emerging market oil importers and adverse implications for oil exporters. The empirical findings are interpreted through the lens of a dynamic general equilibrium multi-country model that features a global oil market and where key parameters are estimated using indirect inference. |
| Date: | 2023–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10402 |
| By: | Du, Xinming; Maruyama Rentschler, Jun Erik; Russ, Jason Daniel |
| Abstract: | The world's over 3, 800 coal-fired power plants are sources of substantial emissions of toxic air pollutants. This study explores people's unequal exposure to air pollution from these coal plants. It simulates the wind dispersion of pollutants originating from each coal power plant using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) with Gaussian dispersion. The study generates three-dimensional pollution trajectories and provide a global map of nitrogen oxide (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particle pollution from coal plants and their contributions to overall pollution levels. The study estimates that 2.3 billion people globally are exposed to SO2 and particle pollution from coal plants; 247.5 million of them are exposed to transboundary pollution from foreign coal plants. The findings show that pollution increases with income levels, though at a diminishing rate at high income levels. In the proximity of coal power plants, downwind areas are associated with higher pollution and lower income levels compared to areas upwind. These findings are consistent with strategic location choices that cause or reinforce environmental injustices associated with air pollution. |
| Date: | 2023–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10400 |
| By: | Mayr, Kentaro Florian; Maruyama Rentschler, Jun Erik |
| Abstract: | Fossil fuel combustion is a major contributor to urban air pollution, which in turn can lead to negative health outcomes. While the relationship between fuel prices and consumption has been extensively documented, the knock-on impact on air quality is less studied. Detailed knowledge on the price-pollution channel is valuable in designing effective pollution reduction measures. This paper analyzes the impact of gasoline, diesel, and coal prices on air pollution in 133 countries over a 19-year period. The dataset combines prices, consumption, country-specific variables, and annual average fine particulate matter concentrations in each country’s capital city. Using the common correlated effects estimator, the analysis finds a robust negative relationship between gasoline and diesel prices and particle concentrations. A US$1 increase in the average annual retail price of these common transport fuels is associated with at least a 22.2 microgram per cubic meter decrease in annual average fine particulate matter concentrations. In contrast, there is no significant effect for coal, which is often used in power generation and industrial applications, making it less responsive to short-term price variations. Overall, the results are in line with earlier studies, as price increases are correlated with improved urban air quality for transport fuels. |
| Date: | 2023–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10397 |
| By: | Amann, Juergen; Grover, Arti Goswami |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of changes in energy prices on the competitiveness of manufacturing firms in Chile. Using the Chilean Annual National Industrial Survey data, the paper illustrates that, first, increases in energy prices generally do not hurt firm competitiveness. Second, the impact of energy prices depends on the fuel type—while electricity price increases are negatively correlated with firm outcomes, fossil fuel price increases have a positive association with investment and firm productivity, a result that is consistent with the strong version of the Porter hypothesis. Third, these effects are heterogeneous and vary by firm attributes such as size, ownership and location. Fourth, investigating non-linear patterns in firm outcomes based on the level of energy prices, the findings show that the positive correlation between fossil fuel price increases and capital upgrading is particularly pronounced when energy prices are at relatively low levels. |
| Date: | 2023–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10436 |
| By: | Vagliasindi, Maria |
| Abstract: | Meeting the dual challenge of providing reliable and affordable energy and transport to a growing population while reducing environmental impacts, including mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, requires a deep understanding of both the unit- and system-level responses. These responses arise from the ongoing energy and transport system evolution, such as the transition toward lower carbon fuels and the expanded deployment of new low-carbon generation technologies. This literature review takes stock of the advantages and disadvantages of alternative approaches, by offering a taxonomy of the current modeling approach, focusing inter alia on the characteristics of the models. Current analyses often employ integrated assessment models to quantify the effects (for example, economywide greenhouse gas emissions) of various policies and decision processes on representative unit operations. The accuracy of the modeling approaches used to estimate these costs depends on several factors: for example, modeling approaches (ranging from partial equilibrium energy-land models to computable general equilibrium models of the global economy, from myopic to perfect foresight models, and from models with or without endogenous technological change), covered area, time horizon, determination of baseline scenarios, detailed sectoral representation, emissions sources, inclusion of efficiency and renewable energy options, and so forth. Some of the biggest challenges for improving the design and use of integrated assessment models include accounting for the trade-off between efficiency and equity, capturing interactions between impact sectors and feedbacks to the climate system, and dealing with uncertainty and risk. This review focuses on the treatment of the energy and transport sectors. |
| Date: | 2023–03–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10357 |
| By: | Dana Kirchem; Mario Kendziorski; Enno Wiebrow; Wolf-Peter Schill; Claudia Kemfert; Christian von Hirschhausen |
| Abstract: | Solar prosumers, residential electricity consumers equipped with photovoltaic (PV) systems and battery storage, are transforming electricity markets. Their interactions with the transmission grid under varying tariff designs are not yet fully understood. We explore the influence of different pricing regimes on prosumer investment and dispatch decisions and their subsequent impact on the transmission grid. Using an integrated modeling approach that combines two open-source dispatch, investment and grid models, we simulate prosumage behavior in Germany's electricity market under real-time pricing or time-invariant pricing, as well as under zonal or nodal pricing. Our findings show that zonal pricing favors prosumer investments, while time-invariant pricing rather hinders it. In comparison, regional solar availability emerges as a larger driver for rooftop PV investments. The impact of prosumer strategies on grid congestion remains limited within the scope of our model-setup, in which home batteries cannot be used for energy arbitrage. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.21306 |
| By: | Daniel de Wolf (TVES - Territoires, Villes, Environnement & Société - ULR 4477 - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille, ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale); Christophe Magidson (CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain); Jules Sigot (CORE - Center of Operation Research and Econometrics [Louvain] - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain) |
| Abstract: | This work aims to study the technical and economical feasibility of a new hydrogen transport network by 2035 in France. The goal is to furnish charging stations for fuel cell electrical vehicles with hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water using low-carbon energy. Contrary to previous research works on hydrogen transport for road transport, we assume a more realistic assumption of the demand side: we assume that only drivers driving more than 20, 000 km per year will switch to fuel cell electrical vehicles. This corresponds to a total demand of 100 TWh of electricity for the production of hydrogen by electrolysis. To meet this demand, we primarily use surplus electricity production from wind power. This surplus will satisfy approximately 10% of the demand. We assume that the rest of the demand will be produced using surplus from nuclear power plants disseminated in regions. We also assume a decentralized production, namely, that 100 MW electrolyzers will be placed near electricity production plants. Using an optimization model, we define the hydrogen transport network by considering decentralized production. Then we compare it with more centralized production. Our main conclusion is that decentralized production makes it possible to significantly reduce distribution costs, particularly due to significantly shorter transport distances. |
| Abstract: | Ce travail vise à étudier la faisabilité technique et économique d'un nouveau réseau de transport d'hydrogène d'ici 2035 en France. L'objectif est d'équiper les bornes de recharge des véhicules électriques à pile à combustible avec de l'hydrogène produit par électrolyse de l'eau à partir d'une énergie bas carbone. Contrairement aux travaux de recherche antérieurs sur le transport de l'hydrogène pour le transport routier, nous supposons une hypothèse plus réaliste du côté de la demande : nous supposons que seuls les conducteurs parcourant plus de 20 000 km par an passeront aux véhicules électriques à pile à combustible. Cela correspond à une demande totale de 100 TWh d'électricité pour la production d'hydrogène par électrolyse. Pour répondre à cette demande, nous utilisons principalement la production excédentaire d'électricité issue de l'énergie éolienne. Ce surplus satisfera environ 10% de la demande. Nous supposons que le reste de la demande sera produit à partir des surplus des centrales nucléaires disséminés dans les régions. Nous supposons également une production décentralisée, à savoir que des électrolyseurs de 100 MW seront placés à proximité des centrales de production d'électricité. À l'aide d'un modèle d'optimisation, nous définissons le réseau de transport d'hydrogène en considérant une production décentralisée. Ensuite, nous le comparons à une production plus centralisée. Notre principale conclusion est que la production décentralisée permet de réduire significativement les coûts de distribution, notamment grâce à des distances de transport nettement plus courtes. |
| Keywords: | hydrogen transport, fuel cell electrical vehicles |
| Date: | 2025–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04953927 |
| By: | D, Silva S. K. B.; K.G.D, Piyumali; Perera, Rasitha Thilini Suranjana; Kaluarachchi, K.D. K. G; Munagamage, Thilini; R.M.R, Ahammed; P, Piyankarage C. S.; Shahmy, Seyed (National Science and Technology Commission); Karunaratne, Veranja |
| Abstract: | Renewable energy, energy storage, and green hydrogen (EES) in Sri Lanka have a significant relationship with the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This commentary aims to provide a critical perspective on the report's recommendations of the National Science and Technology Commission's Biennial Conference 2023 on Science and Technology (BISOST IX), the sub-thematic technical report on Clean Energy, and their alignment with the UN SDGs in the Sri Lankan context. The technical report provides insightful recommendations for Sri Lanka's energy sector under three main sections: renewable energy, energy storage, and green hydrogen. Also, it explores the potential of various renewable energy sources, energy storage systems, and green hydrogen as sustainable solutions to address the country's energy challenges with spill over effects that contribute the enterprise's job creation to the development of the economy. |
| Date: | 2023–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:72g43_v1 |
| By: | Jesús Fernández-Villaverde; Yiliang Li; Le Xu; Francesco Zanetti |
| Abstract: | We examine the rise of dark shipping – oil tankers disabling AIS transceivers to evade detection – amid Western sanctions on Iran, Syria, North Korea, Venezuela, and Russia. Using a machine learning-based ship clustering model, we track dark-shipped crude oil trade flows worldwide and detect unauthorized ship-to-ship transfers. From 2017 to 2023, dark ships transported an estimated 7.8 million metric tons of crude oil monthly – 43% of global seaborne crude exports – with China absorbing 15%. These sanctioned flows offset recorded declines in global oil exports but create distinct economic shifts. The U.S., a net oil exporter, faces lower oil prices but benefits from cheaper Chinese imports, driving deflationary growth. The EU, a net importer, contends with rising energy costs yet gains from Chinese demand, fueling inflationary expansion. China, leveraging discounted oil, boosts industrial output, propagating global economic shocks. Our findings expose dark shipping’s central role in reshaping oil markets and macroeconomic dynamics. |
| Keywords: | dark shipping, oil sanction, satellite data, clustering analysis, LP |
| JEL: | C32 C38 E32 Q43 R40 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11684 |
| By: | Klaiber, Christoph Michael; Maruyama Rentschler, Jun Erik; Dorband, Ira Irina |
| Abstract: | Governments around the world continue to subsidize fossil fuel use, incentivizing unsustainable consumption levels with consequences for the global climate and human health. However, governments have proven reluctant to reform fossil fuel subsidies (FFS). This is mainly due to concerns over potential adverse effects on poverty and equity; the positive effects on air quality and health are often overlooked. This study offers new insights on the distributional consumption incidence of FFS reforms and expected benefits through improved air quality and health outcomes. Using the World Bank-International Monetary Fund Climate Policy Assessment Tool, we conduct country-level analyses of a complete removal of domestic FFS, considering 19 countries for the distributional consumption analysis, and 25 countries for the health benefits analysis. Our findings suggest that across countries, the absolute consumption burden of FFS reform on the richest decile would be 13 times larger than on the lowest-income decile, supporting evidence that FFS are an extremely inefficient way of supporting lower-income groups. In relative terms, however, the disparity is much smaller, with the richest decile bearing a relative consumption burden that is just 1.1 times larger than that borne by the lowest-income decile. In terms of positive health effects, removing FFS in 25 countries could save a total of 360, 000 lives by 2035. The magnitude of the health effect depends on country-specific factors, such as the size of initial subsidy programs, and the extent to which these cover the most polluting fuels. FFS reforms can be a first step in improving air quality and reducing the burden of disease associated with air pollution. |
| Date: | 2023–04–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10398 |
| By: | Chiappinelli, Olga; Dalò, Ambrogio; Giuffrida, Leonardo M. |
| Abstract: | Governments can support the green transition through green public procurement. Despite its strategic importance, the impact of this policy on firms remains unclear. Using US data, this paper provides the first empirical analysis of the causal effects of green contracts on corporate environmental and economic performance. We focus on an affirmative program for sustainable products, which represents one-sixth of the total federal procurement budget, and publicly traded firms, which account for one-third of total US emissions. Our results show that securing green contracts reduces emissions relative to firm size and increases productivity, with these effects persisting in the long run. We find no evidence that the program selects greener firms, nor that green public procurement sales crowd out private sales. We propose that increased R&D investment, incentivized by the program's requirements, is a key mechanism behind these improvements. |
| Keywords: | Public Procurement, Environmental Policy, Firm Performance, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, R&D, Recycled materials, Staggered Difference-in-difference |
| JEL: | D22 D44 H32 H57 Q53 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:312179 |
| By: | Timilsina, Govinda R.; Sebsibie, Samuel |
| Abstract: | Developing countries are increasingly giving attention to carbon pricing to reduce their emissions, particularly in meeting their nationally determined contribution under the Paris Climate Agreement. However, they would like to understand the potential economic, distributional, and environmental impacts of carbon pricing policies before they consider implementation. Using a computable general equilibrium model of Ethiopia, this study examines the effects of a hypothetical carbon tax (US$20/total carbon dioxide) under several alternative schemes to recycle carbon tax revenue to the economy. The study finds that a carbon tax would be regressive in all schemes considered except those when the tax revenue is recycled, as a cash transfer, to household income groups either equally or inversely proportional to their incomes. The schemes that make the carbon tax progressive also cause a higher reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, thereby ensuring the alignment of equity and environmental outcomes of the carbon tax. However, these schemes are not necessarily economically efficient because they cause higher reductions of gross domestic product compared to other options considered. |
| Date: | 2023–06–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10476 |
| By: | World Bank |
| Abstract: | This study offers the first consistent attempt to identify how energy sector decarbonization policies have affected the energy mix over the past four decades across more than 100 developing countries. It applies systematic regression analysis to five energy sector decarbonization outcomes and more than 75 policy instruments aggregated into seven policy packages. Combining instrumental variables with country interactions and country and time fixed effects in regional panels helps address potential endogeneity issues. Only a handful of energy policy packages significantly affect the decarbonization of developing countries' energy mix, and the packages more often achieve a negligible or opposite result than intended three years after implementation. Policies that address counterparty risk have the highest immediate effects. Effects of renewable policies on various decarbonization outcomes improve slightly five and seven years after their implementation. |
| Date: | 2023–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10329 |
| By: | Cotte Poveda, Alexander; Pardo Martínez, Clara Inés |
| Abstract: | This study examines the opportunities in the international carbon market to commercialise coal offsets from the forest economy for compliance schemes and the voluntary market within carbon-neutral and economic diversification strategies using Colombia as a case study due to the importance of coal for the country’s economy and its position as a producer. Consideration is given to opportunities in the international carbon markets that can serve as an instrument to decrease global greenhouse emissions. In recent years, the two modalities (compliance and voluntary) of carbon markets have been growing. To the extent that more drastic policies are generated against emissions and the price of credits and/or offsets, the market price of a credit is above US$20. It is estimated that credits based on nature and generate co-benefits will have the greatest commercialisation potential. In this regard, Colombia has multiple possibilities that could generate a competitive advantage when connected with the commercialisation of carbon. Country-level analyses indicate that the Colombian neutral coal industry has great potential among the regions and countries studied when considering the objectives of the established emissions trading scheme, which in most cases includes the electricity generating sector with a maximum of compensation. Conservatively, this could generate demand for Colombian neutral coal of 5%–10% of the credits and/or required offsets. In the voluntary market, the expectations are positive since many companies that use coal as an input and/or that rely on emission reduction objectives could opt for this strategy to enjoy the co-benefits that this innovative way of marketing coal offers. Colombian carbon neutrality has potential both in the voluntary and regulated carbon markets; efforts could start in the voluntary market and then carry out specific negotiations with countries that have a regulated market. In addition, including projects based on nature, especially reforestation and REDD, will be very beneficial since this sector is expected to experience the greatest growth in the creation of bonds. In addition, with the new rules of the COP26, there will be greater security and certainty in integrity and accounting issues, will be positive for the carbon neutral and economic diversification strategy. Furthermore, how the agreements are implemented to identify opportunities and strategies in their implementation should also be monitored. These elements will be fundamental in the analysis of carbon neutrality strategies in Colombia. |
| Keywords: | compliance carbon market; voluntary carbon market; offsets; Colombian coal |
| JEL: | O10 O14 O18 |
| Date: | 2024–07–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123620 |
| By: | Nell, Andrew David; Herszenhut, Daniel; Knudsen, Camilla; Nakamura, Shohei; Saraiva, Marcus; Avner, Paolo |
| Abstract: | Urban transport is a major driver of global carbon dioxide emissions. Without strong mitigation policies, rapid urbanization, especially in developing countries, is expected to exacerbate the problem. There is a growing consensus on the fundamental role of carbon pricing for achieving reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. However, carbon pricing policies are frequently criticized and resisted for having adverse distributional impacts, which could hinder their implementation, particularly when implemented as a fuel levy—which would impact private vehicle usage but may also affect transit services such as buses. Currently, there is a lack of evidence that quantifies these negative impacts, especially on people’s ability to reach economic opportunities and services. To this end, this paper studies the impact of a uniform carbon price, as one of the most commonly discussed climate policies, on access to employment opportunities via transit services in Kinshasa and Rio de Janeiro. Reduced access to jobs would contribute to fragmented urban labor markets and thus lead to negative social outcomes. Unlike most previous studies, this study defines access as being constrained by both travel time and travel budget. The results indicate that fuel price increases (simulating increases induced by a carbon tax) reduce accessibility, but the effect is lower in more compact and walkable cities as well as in cities that have green transit options. The paper also shows that fuel price increases have spatially and socially disparate outcomes, with the lowest income communities not necessarily being the most affected, in part because even in the absence of carbon pricing, they are found to be priced out of using transit services. The results demonstrate the importance of strategies and investments, such as land use planning and decarbonized transit services, but also possibly complementary social protection programs (such as targeted subsidies, or even cash transfers), to mitigate the negative distributional consequences of carbon pricing policies. |
| Date: | 2023–03–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10341 |
| By: | Allen, Franklin; Barbalau, Adelina; Zeni, Federica |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the conditions under which debt securities that make the cost of debt contingent on the issuer's carbon emissions, similar to sustainability-linked loans and bonds, can be equivalent to a carbon tax. The paper proposes a model in which standard and environmentally-oriented agents can adopt polluting and nonpolluting technologies, with the latter being less profitable than the former. A carbon tax can correct the laissez-faire economy in which the polluting technology is adopted by standard agents, but requires sufficient political support. Carbon-contingent securities provide an alternative price incentive for standard agents to adopt the nonpolluting technology, but require sufficient funds to fully substitute the regulatory tool. Absent political support for the tax, carbon-contingent securities can only improve welfare, but the same is not true when some support for a carbon tax exists. Understanding the conditions under which the regulatory and capital market tools are substitutes or complements within one economy is an important steppingstone in thinking about carbon pricing globally. It sheds light, for instance, on how developed economies can deploy finance to curb carbon emissions in developing economies where support for a carbon tax does not exist. |
| Date: | 2023–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10539 |
| By: | Mensah, Justice Tei; Nsabimana, Aimable; Dzansi, James; Nshunguyinka, Alexandre |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant disruptions to economies around the world. In response to this, some developing countries offered reliefs such as electricity subsidies while others did not. How did the pandemic affect the electricity consumption of households and firms Did the utility subsidies enable a quick recovery from the pandemic And what are the distributional impacts of the utility subsidies This paper leverages unique administrative billing data on electricity consumption from two African countries, Ghana and Rwanda, with differing policy responses to the pandemic to document the demand response of households and firms to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the role of utility subsidies during the period. Findings from the paper indicate that the pandemic led to higher consumption of electricity in both countries, albeit with variations across countries and sectors. While residential consumption soared, consumption of non-residential customers such as hotels and industries declined during the period. Electricity subsidies in Ghana during the pandemic explain the sharp increase in residential consumption. These findings highlight the potential effects of pandemic relief measures on household welfare. |
| Date: | 2023–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10330 |
| By: | Christian Gollier (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Any global temperature target must be translated into an intertemporal carbon budget and its associated cost-efficient carbon price schedule. Under the Hotelling's rule without uncertainty, the growth rate of this price should be equal to the interest rate. It is therefore a puzzle that many cost-efficiency IAM models yield carbon prices that increase at an average real growth rate above 7% per year, a very large return for traders of carbon assets. I explore whether uncertainties surrounding the development of green technologies could solve this puzzle. I show that future marginal abatement costs and aggregate consumption are positively correlated. This justifies doing less for climate change than in the safe case, implying a smaller initial carbon price, and an expected growth rate of carbon price that is larger than the interest rate. In the benchmark calibration of my model, I obtain an equilibrium interest rate around 1% and an expected growth rate of carbon price around 3.5%, yielding an optimal carbon price above 200 USD/tCO within the next few years. I also show that the rigid carbon budget approach to cost-efficiency carbon pricing implies a large uncertainty surrounding the future carbon prices that support this constraint. I show that green investors should be compensated for this risk by a large risk premium embedded in the growth rate of expected carbon prices, rather than by a collar on carbon prices as often recommended. |
| Keywords: | Carbon budget, Risk-adjusted Hotelling’s rule, Climate finance, Climate beta |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04938709 |
| By: | Chlond, Bettina; Goeschl, Timo; Kesternich, Martin; Werthschulte, Madeline |
| Abstract: | Many industrialized countries have recognized the need to mitigate energy cost increases faced by low-income households by fostering the adoption of energy-efficient technologies. How to meet this need is an open question, but "behavioral insights" are likely components of future policy designs. Applying well-established behavioral insights to low-income households raises questions of transportability as they are typically underrepresented in the existing evidence base. We illustrate this problem by conducting a randomized field experiment on scalable, low-cost design elements to improve program take-up in one of the world's largest energy efficiency assistance programs. Observing investment decisions of over 1, 800 low-income households in Germany's "Refrigerator Replacement Program", we find that the transportability problem is real and consequential: First, the most effective policy design would not have been chosen based on existing behavioral insights. Second, design elements favored by these insights either prove ineffective or even backfire, violating 'do no harm' principles of policy advice. Systematic testing remains crucial for addressing the transportability problem, particularly for policies targeting vulnerable groups. |
| Keywords: | Transportability, low-income households, field experiment, randomized controlled trial, governmental welfare programs, energy efficiency, technology adoption |
| JEL: | C93 D91 Q49 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:312197 |
| By: | Hallegatte, Stephane; Mcisaac, Florent John; Dudu, Hasan; Jooste, Charl; Knudsen, Camilla; Beck, Hans Anand |
| Abstract: | Analyzing the macroeconomic consequences of a transition to a net-zero economy creates specific modeling challenges, including those related to the non-marginal nature of the required transformation, the role of technologies, and the replacement of fossil fuel-based assets with greener ones. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a hybrid modeling approach that starts from a set of sectoral techno-economic scenarios to construct an illustrative resilient and net-zero decarbonization trajectory. It then assesses the macroeconomic implications by linking sectoral dynamics to two macroeconomic frameworks: a multisector general equilibrium framework and an aggregate macrostructural model. This approach combines the advantages of multiple tools and captures the various dimensions of the transition, including the need to tackle simultaneously multiple market failures beyond the carbon externality. The paper illustrates this methodology with Türkiye’s objective to reach net zero emissions by 2053. The multisector general equilibrium framework suggests that the transition could contribute positively to Türkiye’s economic growth despite the large investment needs, especially when indirect mitigation benefits are taken into account and if labor market frictions can be reduced. Improved energy efficiency in the transportation and building sectors drives the growth benefits in the short and medium terms. The growth benefits depend on how transition investments are financed: if they crowd out other productive investments, the benefits are significantly reduced and can even become slightly negative in the long term. The macrostructural model focuses on implications for public debt and the current account, using two extreme scenarios in which additional investments are triggered by higher productivity or a set of budget-neutral incentives (taxes and subsidies). The model concludes that the transition would have moderate impacts on the current account and public debt. With budget-neutral incentives, there is a small increase in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the debt-to-GDP ratio increases by 1 to 3 percent, and the current account remains unchanged thanks to the reduction in fuel imports. |
| Date: | 2023–03–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10367 |
| By: | Yedong Zhang; Han Hua |
| Abstract: | Under the guidance of the dual-carbon target, the development of the carbon financial system is of great significance to compensate for the gap between green and low-carbon investment. Considering the current state of the development of carbon financial system, China has initially formed a carbon financial system, including participants, carbon financial products and macro and micro operation structures, but the system is still in the initial development stage. Given the current restrictions on the development of carbon finance, it can be seen that there are still problems such as unreasonable economic structure, insufficient market construction, single product category, low utilization rate and urgent construction of relevant judicial guarantee system. Therefore, the system should be improved at the economic level and the legal level. The economic level includes adjusting the layout of economic development structure, strengthening the construction of market infrastructure, encouraging the diversification of carbon financial products and strengthening publicity and education promotion strategies. The legal level includes improving the top-level design, formulating judicial interpretation to promote carbon financial trading, promoting commercial law amendment, and promoting the linkage mechanism between specialized environmental justice and carbon finance and other safeguard measures. Finally, improving the carbon finance system is required to promote and protect the orderly development of carbon finance. To promote the reform of the pattern of economic development, the concept of ecological and environmental protection in the financial sector needs to be implemented to form an overall pattern of pollution reduction, carbon reduction and synergistic efficiency improvement. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.15807 |
| By: | Dato, Prudence Zowadan; Krysiak, Frank; Nolde, Christian; Timilsina, Govinda R. |
| Abstract: | Green technologies, such as renewable energy, often require adaptation to local conditions, such as high humidity, high altitudes or the specifics of a country’s infrastructure, to achieve a maximal technical efficiency and a long lifetime of investments. This poses a problem for green technology transitions, as adaptations usually imply protected intellectual property rights and thus market imperfections that can lead to higher prices and thereby a lower uptake of the green technology. An alternative could be to use state-owned enterprises to adapt and promote green technologies, such as public utilities, which are more easily steered toward pursuing societal objectives. However, many empirical studies find state-owned enterprises to be less efficient. This theoretical contribution investigates the question whether a green technology transition that requires research and development is better driven by private firms or state-owned enterprises. The paper adapts a model to this setting, derives possible market outcomes from this model, investigates research and development and production decisions of private firms and a state-owned enterprise, and compares the welfare implications of the two options. The results show that there are cases where the cost inefficiency of the state-owned enterprise dominates (for example, if competition of directly importing firms reduces possible markups of private innovating firms), but also cases where a state-owned enterprise is the preferred choice (for example, if several private firms would adapt the technology, causing over-innovation). Most importantly, this is not solely a question of comparing costs, but rather of comparing market outcomes. For example, the use of a state-owned enterprise can avoid the often found problem of overinvestment in research and development by private firms and, in many cases, a state-owned enterprise will induce a wider diffusion of the green technology. |
| Date: | 2023–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10506 |
| By: | Mansur Arief; Yasmine Alonso; CJ Oshiro; William Xu; Anthony Corso; David Zhen Yin; Jef K. Caers; Mykel J. Kochenderfer |
| Abstract: | The world is entering an unprecedented period of critical mineral demand, driven by the global transition to renewable energy technologies and electric vehicles. This transition presents unique challenges in mineral resource development, particularly due to geological uncertainty-a key characteristic that traditional supply chain optimization approaches do not adequately address. To tackle this challenge, we propose a novel application of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) that optimizes critical mineral sourcing decisions while explicitly accounting for the dynamic nature of geological uncertainty. Through a case study of the U.S. lithium supply chain, we demonstrate that POMDP-based policies achieve superior outcomes compared to traditional approaches, especially when initial reserve estimates are imperfect. Our framework provides quantitative insights for balancing domestic resource development with international supply diversification, offering policymakers a systematic approach to strategic decision-making in critical mineral supply chains. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.05690 |
| By: | Ying-Hui Shao; Yan-Hong Yang; Wei-Xing Zhou |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the risk spillovers among AI ETFs, AI tokens, and green markets using the R2 decomposition method. We reveal several key insights. First, the overall transmission connectedness index (TCI) closely aligns with the contemporaneous TCI, while the lagged TCI is significantly lower. Second, AI ETFs and clean energy act as risk transmitters, whereas AI tokens and green bond function as risk receivers. Third, AI tokens are difficult to hedge and provide limited hedging ability compared to AI ETFs and green assets. However, multivariate portfolios effectively reduce AI tokens investment risk. Among them, the minimum correlation portfolio outperforms the minimum variance and minimum connectedness portfolios. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.01148 |
| By: | Jiranyakul, Komain |
| Abstract: | Asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on key macroeconomic variables are caused by some important effects, such as income effect, uncertainty effect, precautionary saving effect, irreversible investment and reallocation effects. Due to these effects, output and prices respond diferently to oil price increases and decreases. This asymmetry hypothesis has been empirically tested by many economists. This paper surveys recent empirical studies on the asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on economic activity and inflation in Asia. The empirical findings in Asian economies shows that the responses of output growth oil price shocks in Japan and South Korea tend to be asymmetric while the responses of inflation seem to be symmetric. For China, the largest oil-importing in Asia, the empirical results show that asymmetry is increasingly discovered. The results of the responses of inflation to oil price shocks in China do not favor the asymmetry hypothesis. The findings in the ASEAN5 economies are likely to support the symmetry hypothesis. In South Asian economies, only few studies favor the asymmetry hypothesis. Because empirical results for other Asian countries are not widely investigated, it is too early to draw some conclusions. One important finding is that Asian oil-exporting countries, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, might not escape the adverse impacts of oil price shocks on output growth. Since output and inflation can be unfavorably affected by oil price shocks, some researchers will recommend accommodative monetary policy along with exchange rate policy to stabilize the responses of output and prices when oil price tends to increase. |
| Keywords: | Oil price shocks, output growth, inflation, asymmetric and symmetric impacts, Asian economies |
| JEL: | E31 E32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123664 |
| By: | Cristiano Cantore; Giovanni Di Bartolomeo; Francesco Saverio Gaudio |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how household heterogeneity affects the level and cyclical behavior of the optimal carbon tax in a real economy. We demonstrate that an equity-efficiency trade-off arises due to income inequality and heterogeneity in the marginal disutility of pollution. Two scenarios are analyzed: one with unrestricted income redistribution to mitigate inequality and another where redistribution is constrained to carbon tax revenues. Our findings reveal that household heterogeneity and redistribution policies significantly shape the level and cyclical behavior of the optimal carbon tax, decoupling it from the social cost of carbon. When the planner prioritizes redistribution towards poorer households, the optimal tax rate is lower than in the unconstrained scenario, and its fluctuations are amplified by countercyclical inequality. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.00142 |
| By: | Behrer, Arnold Patrick; Choudhary, Rishabh; Sharma, Dhruv |
| Abstract: | Exposure to fine particulate pollution (PM2.5) increases mortality and morbidity and reduces human capital formation and worker productivity. As a consequence, high levels of particulate pollution may adversely affect economic activity. Using a novel dataset of changes in the annual gross domestic product of Indian districts, this paper investigates the impact of changes in the level of ambient PM2.5 on district-level gross domestic product. Using daily temperature inversions as an instrument for pollution exposure, this paper finds that higher levels of particulate pollution reduce gross domestic product. The effect is non-trivial—the median annual increase in the level of PM2.5 reduces year-to-year changes in gross domestic product by 0.56 percentage points. |
| Date: | 2023–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10515 |
| By: | Hanming Fang; Ming Li; Long Wang; Zoe Yang |
| Abstract: | Using China's expansion of the high-speed rail system (HSR) as a quasi-natural experiment, we analyze the comprehensive vehicle registration data from 2010 to 2023 to estimate the causal impact of HSR connectivity on the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs). Implementing several identification strategies, including staggered difference-in-differences (DID), Callaway and Sant'Anna (CS) DID, and two instrumental-variable approaches, we consistently find that, by alleviating range anxiety, the expansion of HSR can account for up to one third of the increase in EV market share and EV sales in China during our sample period, with effects particularly pronounced in cities served by faster HSR lines. The results remain robust when controlling for local industrial policies, charging infrastructure growth, supply-side factors, and economic development. We also find that HSR connectivity amplifies the effectiveness of charging infrastructure and consumer purchase subsidies in promoting EV adoption. |
| JEL: | L52 L53 O18 Q55 R41 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33489 |
| By: | Chattopadhyay, Debabrata; Tabassum, Durreh |
| Abstract: | Transmission is a key enabler of clean generation as the lines and substations need to be built first to encourage investments in generation. However, there has been limited attention to readying the grid through upgrades of existing transmission lines/substations and expansion of the grid. As a result, transmission has become a major bottleneck, not only in developing countries, but also in their developed counterparts, including the United States, which has seen accumulation of 930 gigawatts of clean generation “queued up” waiting for transmission to be built. To prioritize upgrading and expansion of the transmission grid, there is a need to adopt a more holistic systemwide view from a long-term perspective and develop a methodology that recognizes transmission as an enabler of clean generation. Such a methodology can be devised around a composite generation-transmission co-optimization model. This paper sets the context within which “green transmission” needs to be viewed and further proposes a modeling framework that brings together the critical elements in generation and transmission planning, including system security constraints as a mixed-integer linear programming problem. The model formulation attempts to strike a reasonable balance between the technical rigor of a network model and computational tractability. There are also important implementation details such as making the planning period sufficiently long to elicit the value of transmission. The shadow prices of key constraints extracted from the model can be useful in prioritizing transmission projects, especially if the duals of transmission capacity and carbon dioxide limits are combined. These issues are discussed around a set of illustrative examples. It is expected that the model and associated discussion would provide a starting point to refine the model further and apply it to practical case studies to develop a holistic definition of green transmission and sustainable generation-transmission plans. |
| Date: | 2023–07–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10517 |
| By: | Ahmed M Khalid (Department of Economics, Lahore University of Management Sciences, Lahore, Pakistan); Bruno Jetin (ACT - Analyse des Crises et Transitions - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Abstract: | This chapter provides a summary of the contributions in this book. One key argument presented throughout is that economies going through a transitional phase face several challenges such as rising unemployment, a lack of entrepreneurial and innovative skills, a dearth of expertise in economic planning and management and more. The recent economic changes experienced by Brunei Darussalam are driven by a structural transformation that occurs in all emerging countries during their development process. This shifting global Asia offers many opportunities for growth if Brunei accelerates policy implementation to innovate and diversify its economy. This is necessary to meet the challenges of the energy transition and the digital economy that are propelled by shocks like climate change and global pandemics. Brunei must also be ready for a demographic change, and invest in and modernise its education system to provide young people with the new skills that companies need. The contributions provide clear evidence that Brunei is increasingly committed to taking on the responsibility of being a more productive state. Oil and gas rents, which are an important driver of the long-run economic growth process, have been increasingly used to finance diversification and socioeconomic development, including generous welfare benefits. This chapter highlights certain niche areas, such as the development of financial sector including a focus on Islamic finance, strengthening agritourism, the services sector, an efficient public sector and more vibrant business sector, which are all key to the future success of Brunei and its ability to meet the anticipated targets as set out in Wawasan Brunei 2035 (Brunei Vision 2035). |
| Abstract: | Ce chapitre résume les contributions de cet ouvrage. L'un des principaux arguments avancés tout au long de ce chapitre est que les économies traversant une phase de transition sont confrontées à plusieurs défis tels que la hausse du chômage, le manque de compétences entrepreneuriales et innovantes, le manque d'expertise en planification et gestion économiques, etc. Les récents changements économiques qu'a connus le Brunei Darussalam sont motivés par une transformation structurelle qui se produit dans tous les pays émergents au cours de leur processus de développement. Cette Asie mondiale en mutation offre de nombreuses opportunités de croissance si le Brunei accélère la mise en œuvre de politiques visant à innover et à diversifier son économie. Cela est nécessaire pour relever les défis de la transition énergétique et de l'économie numérique, propulsés par des chocs tels que le changement climatique et les pandémies mondiales. Le Brunei doit également se préparer à un changement démographique et investir dans son système éducatif et le moderniser pour fournir aux jeunes les nouvelles compétences dont les entreprises ont besoin. Les contributions démontrent clairement que le Brunei est de plus en plus déterminé à assumer la responsabilité d'être un État plus productif. Les rentes pétrolières et gazières, qui sont un moteur important du processus de croissance économique à long terme, sont de plus en plus utilisées pour financer la diversification et le développement socio-économique, y compris des prestations sociales généreuses. Ce chapitre met en évidence certains domaines de niche, tels que le développement du secteur financier, notamment en mettant l'accent sur la finance islamique, le renforcement de l'agritourisme, le secteur des services, un secteur public efficace et un secteur des affaires plus dynamique, qui sont tous essentiels au succès futur du Brunei et à sa capacité à atteindre les objectifs prévus tels qu'énoncés dans Wawasan Brunei 2035 (Brunei Vision 2035). |
| Date: | 2025–02–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04965841 |
| By: | Sophia Shen; Xinyi Wang; Nicholas Caros; Jinhua Zhao |
| Abstract: | The overall impact of working from home (WFH) on transportation emissions remains a complex issue, with significant implications for policymaking. This study matches socioeconomic information from American Community Survey (ACS) to the global carbon emissions dataset for selected Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the US. We analyze the impact of WFH on transportation emissions before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Employing cross-sectional multiple regression models and Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, we examine how WFH, commuting mode, and car ownership influence transportation emissions across 141 MSAs in the United States. We find that the prevalence of WFH in 2021 is associated with lower transportation emissions, whereas WFH in 2019 did not significantly impact transportation emissions. After controlling for public transportation usage and car ownership, we find that a 1% increase in WFH corresponds to a 0.17 kilogram or 1.8% reduction of daily average transportation emissions per capita. The Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition shows that WFH is the main driver in reducing transportation emissions per capita during the pandemic. Our results show that the reductive influence of public transportation on transportation emissions has declined, while the impact of car ownership on increasing transportation emissions has risen. Collectively, these results indicate a multifaceted impact of WFH on transportation emissions. This study underscores the need for a nuanced, data-driven approach in crafting WFH policies to mitigate transportation emissions effectively. |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2503.00422 |
| By: | Dasgupta, Susmita; Lall, Somik V.; Wheeler, David |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies high-priority areas for methane emissions reduction and estimates recent emissions changes in those areas using atmospheric concentration data from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-5P satellite platform. The modeling approach is illustrated with three case studies: landfills in Spain (Madrid), irrigated rice production in India (Karnal district, Haryana state), and oil production in Iraq (Al Amarah district, Maysan governorate). For each case, the paper estimates two change models by fixed effects: the monthly trend in methane concentration from January 2019 to November 2022, and the difference between mean concentration in 2022 and the previous three years. The paper estimates the change models for 775 high-priority areas and finds that cases with decreasing methane emissions are outnumbered four to one by cases with increasing emissions. The paper also analyzes trends in high-priority areas for seven major methane source sectors (agricultural soils, livestock, gas, oil, coal, landfills, and wastewater) and finds only two where emissions decreases outnumber increases (gas and oil). Among World Bank income groups, decreases outnumber increases in high-income economies but increases are hugely dominant in the other three groups. The paper concludes with a presentation of summary emissions trend reports for all 775 high-priority areas, with accompanying maps and an Excel file. As satellite-based monitoring becomes more widely employed, such reports will provide a useful template for judging further p rogress toward fulfillment of the Global Methane Pledge. |
| Date: | 2023–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10391 |
| By: | Lenihan, Helena; Perez-Alaniz, Mauricio; Rammer, Christian |
| Abstract: | Firm-level Climate Action Response Plans (CARPs) are strategic plans comprising firms' climate change mitigation and adaptation commitments. Given the importance of CARPs for meeting climate change targets, encouraging firms to develop CARPs is paramount. When designing evidence-based approaches to drive firm-level CARPs, it is essential to know the resources and capabilities that enable firms to develop CARPs. Drawing on novel and highly detailed data on firms in Ireland, and using a direct matching approach, our study examines the characteristics that distinguish firms that develop and do not develop CARPs. We find that firms developing CARPs: (1) Exhibit strong market performance, in terms of productivity and sales; (2) Engage in international markets; (3) Are highly R&D and innovation active; and (4) Already use digital technologies. Such insights suggest that CARPs require firms to have high levels of resources and skills when designing their responses to climate change. The paper proffers potential policy and managerial implications, in terms of encouraging firms to develop CARPs. |
| Keywords: | Firm-level climate action, Climate Action Response Plans, Climate Change Adaptation, Climate Change Mitigation, Firms' R&D and innovation, Greenwashing |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 Q57 L21 M14 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:312182 |
| By: | Lokshin, Michael M.; Widmar, Eduardo Martin |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new Green Government IT index to assess the environmentally responsible use of computers and other resources by the information technology departments of government institutions and nonprofit organizations. The methodology used in the paper relies on the established literature on index construction and the existing models for evaluating the environmental sustainability of information and communications technologies. The paper discusses the conceptual and theoretical foundations behind the new index and defines a set of verifiable, comparable, and transparent indicators for index construction. This framework allows for future index revisions as the green agenda evolves. The new index could be the first step before more resource-intensive assessments to inform an organization’s long-term environmentally sustainable strategy. |
| Date: | 2023–03–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10361 |
| By: | Rayane Al Amir Dache (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Gustave Eiffel); Nicolas Coulombel (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the distribution of transport costs borne by the Paris region households and the issues of vertical (income) and horizontal (location) equity. Using the 2018 household travel survey, we estimate the following costs: monetary costs, time costs, air pollution costs (distinguishing between the cost caused and borne by the household) and CO2 emission costs. We study the distribution of each dimension alone, as well as the relationship between them. Results show that monetary costs are regressive and represent the most unequal distributed dimension across income groups and space, with the lowest quartiles living in the outer suburbs (those car dependent) facing the highest effort ratios. Time costs are randomly spread across space, but do increase with income. Pollution costs are the lowest for households living in the outer suburbs, and are almost equal across income quartiles. We do find evidence of (slight) compensation between the various costs as the total private cost -the sum of monetary, time and pollution costs -has a lower Gini index than each cost alone. Time costs contribute the most (around 75%) to private cost inequalities due to their large cost share, while monetary costs contribute to around 25%. Our findings stress the importance of considering 1) both horizontal and vertical equity in policy design as both issues are empirically significant, and 2) all the main cost dimensions (money, time, and environment), and not just only one as it is often the case, as the various costs may (or may not) compensate each other. |
| Abstract: | Cet article étudie la distribution des coûts de transport subis par les ménages franciliens en fonction du niveau de revenu et du lieu de résidence, à partir de l'enquête globale de transport 2018. Les coûts considérés sont : les coûts monétaires, les coûts en temps, les coûts liés à la pollution de l'air (en distinguant la pollution émise et celle subie par les ménages) et les coûts liés aux émissions de CO2. Nous étudions la distribution de chaque dimension seule, ainsi que la relation entre elles. Les inégalités de coûts sont étudiées en comparant les moyennes arithmétiques et l'indice de Gini. La décomposition de Gini par sous-population (quartiles de revenu et départements) et par composantes des coûts privés est appliquée. Les résultats montrent que les coûts monétaires sont régressifs et représentent la dimension la plus inégalement répartie entre les groupes de revenus et les départements, avec les ménages à bas revenu, résidant dans les banlieues extérieures (ménages dépendants de la voiture) confrontés aux taux d'effort les plus élevés. Le coût du temps est aléatoirement réparti entre les départements, mais il dépend du revenu des ménages. La pollution supportée par les habitants des banlieues est la plus faible et presque égale entre les quartiles de revenus. Les coûts sont compensés entre eux puisque le coût privé total (la somme des coûts monétaires, du temps et de la pollution) a un indice de Gini plus faible. Les inégalités de coûts au sein des quartiles de revenus et des départements sont importantes, mais contribuent peu à l'inégalité globale par rapport aux inégalités entre eux. Le coût du temps contribue à 75 % des inégalités de coûts privés en raison de sa part importante dans les coûts, et les coûts monétaires ne contribuent qu'à 25 %. Ces résultats soulignent l'importance cruciale de la prise en compte de l'équité dans la conception des politiques afin d'épargner les personnes défavorisées en matière de transport et d'empêcher l'accroissement des inégalités. |
| Keywords: | Equity, Distributional impacts, Travel costs, Gini index, Équité, Effets redistributifs, Coûts de déplacement, Indice de Gini |
| Date: | 2024–07–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04932291 |
| By: | Bueren, Jesus; Gine, Xavier; Jacoby, Hanan G.; Mira, Pedro |
| Abstract: | Borewells for groundwater extraction have proliferated across South Asia, encouraged by subsidized electricity for pumping. Because borewells operating near one another experience mutually attenuated discharges and higher failure rates, farmers deciding whether and when to drill interact strategically with potentially many neighbors through the spatial network of agricultural plots. To incorporate such interactions in policy counterfactuals, this paper estimates a dynamic discrete network game of well-drilling using plot-level panel data from two states of southern India. The current regime of free (but rationed) electricity is then compared against an annual tax on all functioning borewells that fully defrays electricity costs. The cost-recovery tax, by reining in over-drilling, eliminates a deadweight loss of 170 USD per acre of land with groundwater potential, 30% of the fiscal cost of the subsidy. Further, taxing borewells at a rate 18% higher than annual electricity costs (to address the negative externalities) is socially optimal. The model estimates also suggest a practical compensation scheme to build farmer support for electricity price reform. |
| Date: | 2023–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10508 |
| By: | Seitz, William Hutchins; Kudo, Yuya; Azevedo, Joao Pedro Wagner De |
| Abstract: | Access to reliable electricity is a Sustainable Development Goal, and key for both economic growth and individual wellbeing. Yet, in the absence of sophisticated monitoring systems, policy makers in developing countries commonly rely on surveys to measure electricity reliability and prioritize investments. The accuracy of such survey-based methods is unclear. This study built a low-cost national electricity outage monitoring network, using off-the-shelf components in Tajikistan – a country with severe electricity service constraints. The system was introduced alongside a monthly household survey called Listening to Tajikistan, which allowed benchmarking the survey summary statistics against unbiased measures. The results show that although the two measures were well correlated, the survey data suffered from significant and systematic bias. Survey respondents (i) systematically underreported the incidence and severity of electricity outages on average, but (ii) systematically overreport ed the incidence of outages during a period of abnormally widespread service disruption of long duration. These findings suggest that bias in survey-based measures is sensitive to the salience of outages to the respondent, and that, where feasible, automated electricity monitoring can provide more accurate quality measurement. For survey settings, the results also suggest that estimates are more accurate over short (daily) reference periods. |
| Date: | 2023–04–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10423 |
| By: | Richhild Moessner |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of country-specific energy prices on food consumer price inflation (CPI) within a cross-country Phillips curve framework. It considers a panel of 36 OECD member and candidate economies using quarterly data from the start of 1994 to the end of 2021. We find that energy CPI inflation has a significantly positive effect on food CPI inflation, after controlling for the output gap, exchange rate changes and global factors. This result is generally robust to also controlling for inflation expectations, global food commodity prices and core CPI inflation. We also find that the effect of energy CPI inflation on food CPI inflation is significantly larger when energy dependency is higher. |
| Keywords: | inflation, food prices, energy prices |
| JEL: | E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11682 |
| By: | Nie, Ou; Regelink, Martijn Gert Jan; Wang, Dieter |
| Abstract: | Climate change and environmental risks are increasingly recognized as a concern for financial authorities, yet empirical evidence of the damage for bank balance sheets is relatively scant. This paper provides preliminary estimates of the aggregate impact of physical risks from climate and environmental-related natural disasters on bank balance sheets across 184 countries over nearly 40 years. Using the local projection method, the analysis finds that severe disaster episodes lead to an increase in the level of systemwide non-performing loans, which is persistent over time. The paper complements the cross-country results with a country-specific example, which finds that typhoon damages lead to a significant increase in non-performing loans in the Philippines between 2011 and 2018. The results suggest a role for financial policy and supervision to monitor, assess, and mitigate climate and environmental related physical risks to the banking sector. |
| Date: | 2023–02–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10326 |
| By: | Kabundi, Alain Ntumba; Zahid, Hamza |
| Abstract: | This paper studies commodity price cycles and their underlying drivers using a dynamic factor model. The study employs a sample of 39 monthly commodity prices over 1970:01 to 2019:12. The analysis identifies global and group–specific cycles in commodity markets and includes them in a structural vector autoregressive model together with measures of global economic activity and global inflation, to disentangle their response to global demand, global supply, and commodity market-specific shocks. The findings reveal the following main results. (i) There exists a global cycle in commodity markets that accounts for an increasing fraction of co-movement in commodity prices over the past two decades, particularly for energy, metals, and precious metals. (ii) The results are heterogeneous across groups of commodities, with group-specific commodity cycles existing for grains and precious metals over the full sample period, 1970–2019. Metal and energy prices exhibit within-group synchronization over 1970–99; however, in recent years, their movements have become increasingly aligned with the global business cycle. (iii) Since 2000, the global commodity cycle is largely driven by global supply shocks, such as rapid productivity growth in emerging markets and developing economies, which increase demand for commodities. (iv) The large price spikes observed during the two most prominent commodity market boom-bust episodes of the past half-century (1972–74 and 2006–08) are driven additionally by shocks that are orthogonal to global economic activity such as shifts in speculative demand for commodities. |
| Date: | 2023–04–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10401 |
| By: | Ockenfels, Axel; Gallier, Carlo; Sturm, Bodo |
| Abstract: | International climate negotiations have so far failed to produce ambitious climate cooperation. We combine laboratory experiments with simulations to investigate the performance of two negotiation design features to address this failure: The Paris Agreement's ratchet-up mechanism, which requires countries to gradually increase their ambition, and a new policy proposal to negotiate more frequently. We find that more frequent interactions allow subjects to build trust and cooperation more safely over time. Conversely, subjects in a ratchet-up design tend to become more cautious to protect themselves from free riders. Thus, more frequent revisions of commitments promote cooperation, but the ratchet-up design fails to achieve the same result. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, climate negotiations, cooperation, laboratory experiments, simulations |
| JEL: | C72 C91 C92 D02 H41 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:312184 |
| By: | Ezran, Irene Anne Sophie; Morris, Stephen David; Rama, Martin G.; Riera-Crichton, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper uses satellite readings of nitrogen (NO2) air pollution, a byproduct of combustion, to improve the measurement of global economic activity. The proposed approach improves upon night light measures for countries where data manipulation, conflict, or other factors have led to poor national accounts. The paper also shows that existing country rankings of gross domestic product accuracy over the past 15 years are unreliable, even among advanced economies. For example, the paper shows that during COVID, in France, the UK and Spain gross domestic product in 2020 was underreported by 76, 181, and 205 basis points respectively. The methodological contribution extends previous Error-Measurement frameworks which, suffer from error-in-variables biases, with an objective, data-driven identification strategy exploiting the plausibly orthogonal measurement errors between nitrogen dioxide and night lights, which are measured at different times. |
| Date: | 2023–05–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10445 |
| By: | Thomas H\"ubner; Gabriela Hug |
| Abstract: | A key challenge in combinatorial auctions is designing bid formats that accurately capture agents' preferences while remaining computationally feasible. This is especially true for electricity auctions, where complex preferences complicate straightforward solutions. In this context, we examine the XOR package bid, the default choice in combinatorial auctions and adopted in European day-ahead and intraday auctions under the name ``exclusive group of block bids''. Unlike parametric bid formats often employed in US power auctions, XOR package bids are technology-agnostic, making them particularly suitable for emerging demand-side participants. However, the challenge with package bids is that auctioneers must limit their number to maintain computational feasibility. As a result, agents are constrained in expressing their preferences, potentially lowering their surplus and reducing overall welfare. To address this issue, we propose decision support algorithms that optimize package bid selection, evaluate welfare losses resulting from bid limitations, and explore alternative bid formats. Our findings offer actionable insights for both auctioneers and bidders. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.09420 |
| By: | Runyao Yu; Yuchen Tao; Fabian Leimgruber; Tara Esterl; Jochen L. Cremer |
| Abstract: | Efficient and reliable probabilistic prediction of intraday electricity prices is essential to manage market uncertainties and support robust trading strategies. However, current methods often suffer from parameter inefficiencies, as they fail to fully exploit the potential of modeling interdependencies between bids and offers in the orderbook, requiring a large number of parameters for representation learning. Furthermore, these methods face the quantile crossing issue, where upper quantiles fall below the lower quantiles, resulting in unreliable probabilistic predictions. To address these two challenges, we propose an encoding method called OrderFusion and design a hierarchical multi-quantile head. The OrderFusion encodes the orderbook into a 2.5D representation, which is processed by a tailored jump cross-attention backbone to capture the interdependencies of bids and offers, enabling parameter-efficient learning. The head sets the median quantile as an anchor and predicts multiple quantiles hierarchically, ensuring reliability by enforcing monotonicity between quantiles through non-negative functions. Extensive experiments and ablation studies are conducted on four price indices: 60-min ID3, 60-min ID1, 15-min ID3, and 15-min ID1 using the German orderbook over three years to ensure a fair evaluation. The results confirm that our design choices improve overall performance, offering a parameter-efficient and reliable solution for probabilistic intraday price prediction. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.06830 |
| By: | Foster, Vivien; Gorgulu, Nisan; Jain, Dhruv; Straub, Stéphane; Vagliasindi, Maria |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a meta-analysis of the infrastructure research done over more than three decades, using a database of over a thousand estimates from 221 papers reporting outcome elasticities. The analysis casts a wide net to include the transport, energy, and digital or information and communication technology (ICT) sectors, and the whole set of outcomes covered in the literature, including output, employment and wages, inequality and poverty, trade, education and health, population, and environmental aspects. The results allow for an update of the underlying parameters of interest, the “true” underlying infrastructure elasticities, accounting for publication bias, as well as for heterogeneity stemming from both study design and context, with a particular focus on developing countries. |
| Date: | 2023–03–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10350 |
| By: | Tuomisto, Jouni T (Kausal Ltd); Bliem, Bernhard; Yrjölä, Juha; Tikkanen, Tero; Faehnle, Maija |
| Abstract: | Climate change is the largest global health threat. To protect human welfare locally and globally, municipalities need to take bold actions. However, even in situations with support for ambitious targets, the complexity and conflicting interest in details severely hinder green transition. We combined open policy practice and other decision support methods into a framework that allows for citizen participation and systematic, public description and evaluation of participants’ factual and value basis of their priorities. The similarities and differences of thought are explicated. Particular information objects are used for actions, outcomes, hypotheses, priorities and value profiles. In this proof of concept, we analysed priorities and arguments about climate change from a voting advice application for the Finnish Parliamentary election in 2023. The content was described on the web platform Kausal Watch as it had many of the functionalities that would be needed for the full-blown implementation of the framework. The information objects described fairly well the respondents’ mental models. The approach clarified the nature of disagreements, as some were due to values and some factual beliefs. The framework seems to be able to describe this information in such a structured way that enables further scrutiny and co-development of policies. |
| Date: | 2023–04–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:5dpqx_v1 |
| By: | Marina Flamand (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Vincent Frigant (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Stéphane Miollan (BSE - Bordeaux Sciences Economiques - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Knowledge production activity is central within a technological innovation system. The number of patent applications is commonly used to evaluate this activity. However, it is subject to bias and inaccurate evaluations can occur. This article proposes a multi-criteria framework based on seven complementary patent indicators, taking into account the persistence, commitment, and coherence of knowledge production activities for a more comprehensive evaluation. We demonstrate the value of our proposal through a case study on hydrogen storage, comparing patent data since 2000 about three technological solutions: physical, chemical and adsorption technologies. Our framework clearly shows that physical hydrogen storage is the most advanced in terms of knowledge production, despite not having the highest number of patent applications. |
| Keywords: | Technological innovation system, Knowledge production, Metrics, Patent, Multi-criteria, Hydrogen storage technologies |
| Date: | 2025–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04969613 |