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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Enrique Aldaz-Carroll; Euijin Jung; Maryla Maliszewska; Iryna Sikora |
| Abstract: | The three major players in the global economy, the United States, the European Union, and China, have been designing climate mitigation policies that will help reduce their carbon emissions but will also likely reshape developing countries’ trade, prices, and access to technology. This paper examines developing countries’ exposure to such changes. Overall, the policies are expected to curtail demand for fossil fuels, energy-intensive manufacturing, and agricultural exports linked to environmental degradation. They are also expected to open export opportunities in critical minerals, electric vehicles and their components, and renewable energy technologies and components. The exposure of affected export sectors and the overall economy to these changes will vary across countries based on the orientation of their export sectors to the markets in the European Union, the United States, and Chinese as well as the weight of affected exports in their economies. The climate policies will also likely reduce oil prices and raise critical mineral prices, help reduce the cost of green technologies, and increase green foreign investment. The paper draws recommendations for developing countries, the European Union, the United States, and China, as well as the international community, on how best to help developing countries lessen the potential negative competitiveness effects of these climate policies and make the most of the opportunities for a faster green transition and economic development. |
| Date: | 2024–11–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10988 |
| By: | Lin, Fan; Xie, Danyang |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium integrated assessment model (DGE-IAM) with endogenous technological changes to explore strategies for China to optimize social welfare, mitigate climate change, and transition to green development. We analyze three solutions and provide corresponding projections of their outcomes: market solution (no intervention), carbon tax solution (carbon taxes and rebates), and green technology solution (induced R\&D investment in green knowledge). While the temperature rise will reach $4.2^\circ C$ in market solution by the next century, it is reduced to $4.0^\circ C$ in the carbon tax solution with social welfare gains. In the green technology solution, economic growth pattern is almost intact with welfare gains while carbon emission approaches net-zero and climate change is curbed and even repairs consistently lower than $1^\circ C$ in centuries. Our results highlight the potential of R\&D investment in green knowledge, e.g., the modern new energy sector, as crucial for China's green transition in the long run with possibly welfare gains. We emphasize the need for immediate and intensive actions and offer valuable insights for policymakers addressing climate change and promoting a sustainable future for China. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Endogenous Technological Changes, Induced R\&D, China |
| JEL: | E27 O33 O44 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123556 |
| By: | Koul, Sanjay |
| Abstract: | This paper explores global, regional, and national initiatives aimed at achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, focusing on progress made at each level. The global push for decarbonization has seen over 130 countries committing to net-zero targets, driven by international agreements and the growing urgency to mitigate climate change. Major global players, including the United States, the European Union, and Japan, have made legally binding commitments, while financial projections suggest that approximately $275 trillion will be required globally to transition to sustainable energy systems by 2050. This includes investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and carbon capture technologies. The Middle East, historically reliant on fossil fuels, is undergoing a significant transformation, with nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE setting ambitious net-zero goals. Saudi Arabia has pledged to achieve net-zero by 2060, while the UAE has set its target for 2050. These countries are leading the region in renewable energy investments, focusing heavily on solar power, with projects such as the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park and Saudi Arabia’s NEOM city project. This paper analyzes the economic, technological, and policy frameworks supporting these net-zero initiatives across the globe, with a specific focus on the Middle East’s unique challenges and progress. It highlights the growing reliance on renewable energy, the role of international collaborations, and the hurdles that remain for regions heavily dependent on hydrocarbons. The analysis underscores the importance of sustained financial investments, innovation in green technologies, and multilateral cooperation to meet net-zero targets by 2050. |
| Date: | 2025–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ek3gd_v1 |
| By: | Stacciarini, João Henrique Santana (Federal University of Goiás); Gonçalves, Ricardo Junior de Assis Fernandes |
| Abstract: | Environmental challenges, social pressures, and international agreements underscore the need for a transition to renewable energy sources. This shift is driven by the economic feasibility of technologies such as solar and wind power. However, the transition to renewable energy faces significant obstacles: its lower energy density compared to fossil fuels requires larger structures to produce equivalent amounts of energy. Additionally, these sources have a shorter lifespan than conventional ones, leading to increased demand for minerals, which are often extracted in Global South countries. This dynamic may exacerbate the socio-environmental conflicts and impacts associated with mining. Based on data collection and analysis from various global reports, complemented by academic studies from different regions, this study explores the intrinsic connection between renewable energy sources and the expansion of mining activities, highlighting the implications of this process. |
| Date: | 2025–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jdfyw_v1 |
| By: | Restrepo, Laura; Fulton, Lewis; Wernert, Lukas |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews and analyzes the hydrogen-related targets and policies set for 2030 in California and the European Union, particularly related to the transportation sector. Both regions have strongly committed to decarbonizing transportation and transitioning toward clean energy sources, including hydrogen fuel cell vehicle technology. We examine the projected hydrogen demand for light and heavy-duty vehicles, plans for hydrogen production and use, and infrastructure needed, such as refueling stations. We also review announced policy frameworks and strategies driving the transition to clean hydrogen energy in California and the EU. We also consider the impact of US-level policies on California and its hydrogen/fuel cell vehicle efforts. This paper reflects the situation in these jurisdictions as of December 2024. Potential changes in policy given the change in US administration in January of 2025 are not considered. Our investigation finds that concerning vehicles, both jurisdictions have adopted an ambitious yet largely technology-neutral approach, allowing for the coexistence of battery-electric and fuel-cell electric vehicles. However, each has some policies and targets specific to promoting fuel cell vehicles; support for developing hydrogen systems is also typically fuel-specific in both jurisdictions and includes regulations and incentives. The policies address challenges such as sourcing low-carbon hydrogen, achieving cost competitiveness, and meeting the growing demand for clean electricity. Additionally, based on the targets set by California and the EU for 2030 regarding light and heavy-duty vehicles, buses, and hydrogen refueling stations (HRS), on a per-capita basis, California demonstrates somewhat greater ambition in both vehicles and HRS than the EU, by 2030. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9ps607c7 |
| By: | Mar Delgado-Téllez (EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK); Javier Quintana (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Daniel Santabárbara (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | An increase of €100 per tonne in the EU carbon price reduces the carbon footprint but lowers GDP due to higher energy costs and carbon leakage. Using a dynamic multi-sector, multi-country model augmented with an energy block that includes endogenous renewable energy investment, we analyze the macroeconomic and emissions effects of a carbon price. Investment in renewable energy mitigates electricity price increases in the medium term, leading to a smaller GDP loss (up to -0.4%) and a larger emissions reduction (24%) in the EU. Neglecting renewable energy investment overestimates the negative economic impact. We also find that a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) reduces carbon leakage but slightly hurts GDP and inflation as the competitive gain is offset by the higher costs of imported intermediate inputs. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing, renewable energy investment, carbon border adjustment, production networks |
| JEL: | C6 H2 Q5 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:2506 |
| By: | Timilsina, Govinda R.; Malla, Dr. Sunil; Heger, Martin |
| Abstract: | The brick industry is one of the primary sources of carbon dioxide emissions and local air pollutants in Nepal. Coal, which accounts for one-third of the current national carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel sources and is entirely imported, is the primary fuel in the brick industry. The brick industry accounts for 27 percent of the total carbon dioxide emissions from coal consumption. The adoption of clean technologies or fuels in the brick industry is crucial for improving air quality, enhancing energy independence, and meeting the country’s nationally determined contribution under the Paris Climate Accord and the net-zero emission target set for 2045. Substitution of imported coal with domestic energy resources in the brick industry substantially reduces the country’s import bills. This study examines the economics of various alternatives to reduce coal consumption and corresponding emissions from the brick industry. The study considers a range of carbon taxes (US$10 to US$100 per ton of carbon dioxide), an environmental fiscal policy. The US$10 per ton of carbon dioxide tax would increase brick production costs by 2 to 6 percent, depending on the energy efficiencies of the technologies. If the carbon tax were US$100 per ton of carbon dioxide, the cost of bricks would increase by 12 to 36 percent. However, implementation of the policy may not be successful without enabling lower cost, clean alternatives. For example, replacing more coal with biomass provides direct cost and environmental savings but would require relaxing strict forest protections. The study recommends various promotional policies for non-fired alternative bricks. It also argues that since using electricity for firing bricks is an ideal option for reducing emissions from the brick industry in Nepal, the government and development partners should prioritize pilot projects for electric kilns. |
| Date: | 2024–06–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10833 |
| By: | Carolyn Fischer; Qu, Chenfei; Goulder, Lawrence H. |
| Abstract: | Jurisdictions that rely on emissions trading to control emissions often utilize other environmental or energy policies as well, including policies to support renewable energy and reduce energy consumption. Overlapping policies produce economic interactions that can lead to quite different outcomes from what might be predicted after examining individual policies separately. Prior literature on policy interactions has primarily focused on cap-and-trade systems, where aggregate emissions are fixed by regulation but emissions prices respond. However, jurisdictions are increasingly turning to alternative forms of emissions markets, including a range of rate-based emissions trading systems, in which both emissions quantities and prices are flexible and the significance of policy interactions is less understood. This paper extends the literature by considering the outcomes under a range of emissions trading systems—not only cap-and-trade, but also several forms of tradable performance standards—and under a variety of overlapping policies, including subsidies to renewables and taxes on electricity. An analytical model stylized on the electricity sector demonstrates that an overlapping subsidy to renewable energy drives down emission prices and expands output under all types of emissions trading systems, but emissions quantities differ with tradable performance standards—emissions increase with renewable subsidies under a uniform, sectorwide tradable performance standard but decrease when the performance standard only covers emitters, excluding clean sources from receiving tradable credits. Taxing electricity consumption reduces emission prices and total output under all types of emissions trading systems and reduces emissions under all tradable performance standards. With cap-and-trade, the presence of an overlapping renewables subsidy or electricity consumption tax implies higher efficiency costs. Under certain tradable performance standards, however, these measures can reduce distortions and enhance cost-effectiveness. A numerical general equilibrium model offers quantitative assessments of the impacts of overlaps on emissions, production, prices, and costs, under China’s planned emissions trading system and alternative designs. The overlaps in China’s current stated policy for 2020 to 2035 reduce the cost per ton of abatement of its system of differentiated emitter performance standards by 20–30 percent; optimizing renewable portfolio standards could further reduce costs by 10 percent, and transitioning to uniform benchmarks for emitting power generators could save another 10–15 percent. Still, cap-and-trade without overlapping policies would be most cost-effective. The findings highlight the need to consider the choice of emissions trading systems and overlapping policies together when undertaking reforms. |
| Date: | 2024–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10872 |
| By: | Nidhi Kalra; Edmundo Molina-Pérez (Rand Corporation); James Syme (Rand Corporation); Fernando Esteves; Hermilio Cortés; Mateo Tonatiuh Rodríguez-Cervantes; Víctor Manuel Espinoza-Juárez; Marcela Jaramillo; Richard Baron (2050 Pathways Platform); Claudio Alatorre; Marco Butazzoni; Adrien Vogt-Schilb (Inter-American Development Bank - Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Are development and decarbonization conflicting or complementary goals? In this report, we explore how Latin America and the Caribbean can improve socioeconomic and development outcomes while also reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Specifically, we introduce SiSePuede, an open source decarbonization modeling toolkit that evaluates decarbonization actions costs, benefits, and emissions reductions across the economy. We find that maximizing actions could achieve net-zero emissions in the region before 2050 and net $2.7 trillion in benefits compared to more traditional development. Benefits include massive fuel cost savings; avoided costs from reduced air pollution, congestion, and car crashes; and the value of ecosystem services from forests. Although there are many paths to net-zero emissions, three actions are critical: producing electricity with renewables, electrifying transport, and protecting and restoring forests by halting deforestation and shifting food-production patterns. Economy-wide strategies that implement these actions at scale can reduce emissions dramatically and net enormous benefits to the region even amid deep uncertainties, with a median of $1 trillion in net benefits across all scenarios. These benefits are unevenly distributed across sectors and actors, and across time, so realizing them and ensuring a just transition to net zero requires governments to overcome important financing, regulatory, infrastructure, and other barriers. Each country must tailor its own strategy to address development and emissions goals based on local priorities, capabilities, resources, and technical capacity. SiSePuede provides a robust analytical foundation to support these efforts. |
| Keywords: | decarbonization, long-term strategy, climate mitigation, NDC |
| Date: | 2023–12–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04458161 |
| By: | Albanese, Marina; Busato, Francesco; Ulloa Severino, Claudia; Varlese, Monica |
| Abstract: | The transition from fossil fuels to sustainable solutions remains a significant challenge, primarily due to path dependence which affects many economies. This calls for a new approach to economic growth that fully accounts for environmental costs. Consequently, understanding the factors that influence GDP growth is essential for achieving sustainable economic development. This study contributes to the existing literature by examining how greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, and urbanization impact GDP growth across various economic contexts. Employing a balanced panel comprising the US, EU27 and the BRICS economies from 1990 to 2022, it is among the first ones to incorporate the expanded BRICS+ economies into the analysis. Key empirical results are the following: First, Greenhouse gas emissions have a unidirectional effect on GDP growth across all panels, driven by emissions-intensive sectors like manufacturing; Second, in BRICS+ countries, urbanization and GDP are strongly interconnected, with emissions-driven growth posing future sustainability challenges; Third, the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is supported, indicating that while economic growth initially leads to greater pollution, higher incomes eventually promote investment in renewable sources. Hence, policies promoting the energy transition underscore the importance of integrating the economic growth and environmental sustainability in pursuing multidimensional well-being. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy, Economic growth, GHG emission, Panel data regression. |
| JEL: | C23 E60 E66 F64 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123550 |
| By: | Esteban Ferro; Davide Salvatore Mare; Faruk Miguel Liriano; Fausto Andres Patino Pena; Rodriguez Quezada, Maria Gabriela; Federica Zeni |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of implementing a carbon tax on aggregate total factor productivity in the Dominican Republic through the resource allocation channel. It incorporates energy inputs—electricity and fuel—into firms’ production functions, allowing predictions of potential changes in resource allocation due to the carbon tax. The theoretical implications of the model indicate that the carbon tax has a heterogeneous effect on firms’ input choices, contingent on the level of firms’ existing input market distortions. Moreover, the model suggests that in economies in which more productive firms are less distorted, the carbon tax can decrease aggregate total factor productivity. In contrast, when more productive firms are more distorted, the carbon tax can increase or decrease aggregate total factor productivity. Utilizing detailed firm-level data from 2009 to 2018, covering up to 118, 000 firms, this paper finds that a carbon tax is more effective when levied on fuels rather than electricity. For the majority of sectors in the sample, the paper finds that existing distortions in energy consumption are positively correlated with firm-level productivity. Moreover, the quantitative results show that the introduction of the carbon tax shifts the burden of market distortions from high productivity firms to low productivity ones, generating aggregate total factor productivity gains for most sectors in the Dominican Republic. Overall, this study underscores the importance of considering existing input market distortions when analyzing the impact of environmental taxes. |
| Date: | 2024–10–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10944 |
| By: | Neubauer, Sven (RWTH Aachen University); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Morgan, M. Granger (Carnegie Mellon University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the factors that influence the manufacturing costs of high-voltage-direct- current (HVDC) cables in the EU, projects price developments through the year 2050, and provides potential measures to stabilize cable production costs. HVDC cables play an important role in the energy transition, because the economic operation of an increasingly decentralized power grid due to renewable energies requires technology with low transmission losses. The paper further identifies the contribution of each cost component and forecasts future values under various scenarios. Since the EU lists copper as a strategic raw material, a partial equilibrium model is employed to reduce uncertainty in price estimates for this commodity, the availability of which is critical for the manufacturing of HVDC cables. In a sensitivity analysis, the contribution of each input variable to our cable cost model is assessed. The results suggest that copper demand due to HVDC cable manufacturing exerts a negligible effect on EU copper prices, although cost trends diverge significantly across relevant Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The paper concludes that cable costs are tied to the affordability of copper. Metal availability and regulatory framework impact the timely development of the HVDC connections that will be necessary for the energy transition in Europe. |
| Keywords: | HVDC cable; HVDC costs; partial equilibrium model; copper supply; European Green Deal |
| JEL: | Q31 Q41 Q55 |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:0000_000 |
| By: | Amrita Goldar (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Rajesh Chadha; Siddharth Goel; Rishabh Jain |
| Abstract: | This report provides a national roadmap for India to secure CETMs needed for its clean energy transition by addressing immediate and long-term challengesthrough strategic policy interventions and international cooperation. The primary objective of this report is to improve awareness across stakeholders involved in the climate and minerals sectors of government, civil society organisations, and industries about the importance of CETMs. While stakeholders have developed a basic understanding of the issue, there is a need for greater knowledge about market dynamics, finance, contracting, environmental and social issues, and institutional frameworks related to CETMs. |
| Keywords: | clean energy, CETMs, low carbon, supply chai, value chain, miniral policy, icrier |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:25-r-04 |
| By: | Fabianek, Paul (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we propose an assessment framework for zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in Germany using economic and customer-relevant criteria, with a focus on the mobility needs of individuals. Developing this framework required data obtained from four different sources: (1) literature, (2) semi-structured interviews, (3) a survey, and (4) market research. First, we derived the criteria relevant to assessing ZEVs from the literature and from semi-structured interviews. These interviews were conducted with individuals who have driving experience with both battery and fuel cell electric vehicles. Seven criteria were found to be particularly relevant for assessing ZEVs: greenhouse gas emissions, infrastructure availability, charging/refueling time, range, spaciousness, total costs, and driving dynamics (in descending order of importance). Second, we conducted a survey among ZEV drivers and ZEV-interested individuals in order to weight these seven criteria. This survey was based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process approach. We then used market research to assign value scores to each criterion, representing the extent to which a particular ZEV meets a given criterion. Finally, we combined the value scores with the criteria weights to create the assessment framework. This framework allows for a transparent assessment of different ZEVs from the perspective of (potential) customers, without the need to repeatedly involve the surveyed participants. In an exemplary application of this multi-criteria framework, a battery electric vehicle clearly scored higher than a fuel cell electric vehicle. Our study is primarily useful for mobility planners, policymakers, and car manufacturers to improve ZEV infrastructure and support transportation systems’ transition towards low-carbon mobility. |
| Keywords: | Zero emission vehicles; Sustainable mobility; Transportation infrastructure; Purchase criteria; Multi-criteria analysis |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2023_002 |
| By: | Samuel Rosenow; Alvaro Raul Espitia Rueda; Ana Margarida Fernandes |
| Abstract: | Addressing climate change requires the deployment of green technologies. Using novel transaction-level import data from firms in 35 emerging markets in a firm-level structural gravity model, this paper examines the trade policy determinants of firms' imports of products associated with green value chains of solar photovoltaic, wind power, and electric vehicles. The panel estimates indicate that firms' import response to tariffs is particularly adverse for products associated with green value chains relative to average imports, driven by the solar value chain and downstream segments across all green value chains. This effect is pervasive for both the values and quantities imported by firms as well as for the probability of firms importing these products. Moreover, the effect is even more negative for undiversified firms. In contrast, import regulations have a smaller and more varied impact on firms' imports of products associated with green value chains. The findings suggest that governments in emerging markets should avoid adopting protectionist policies that are increasingly used in high-income countries, as their local firms rely on imports for the short-term diffusion of green technologies. |
| Date: | 2024–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10977 |
| By: | Adam Michael Bauer; Stephane Hallegatte; Florent McIsaac |
| Abstract: | When leaders face political economy constraints, is it best to delay all decarbonization initiatives until a sectorally coordinated strategy can be implemented, or is it preferable to implement an approach where sectors’ decarbonization strategies are uncoordinated? This question underscores a crucial trade-off – here coined the “timing versus allocation” trade-off – for politically constrained climate policymakers: (i) to sacrifice the optimal timing of climate policies to preserve the optimal allocation of emissions across economic sectors, or (ii) to preserve the optimal timing of abatement investment to the detriment of the allocation of emissions across sectors. This paper systematically explores this trade-off by presenting a modeling framework that elucidates the economic implications of various sub-optimal policy approaches to decarbonization that involve relaxing or delaying decarbonization efforts in a subset of sectors or economy-wide. The paper shows that the cost difference between an economy-wide, coordinated decarbonization strategy and an uncoordinated approach with heterogeneous carbon prices is smaller than the cost of delaying action and implementing a coordinated policy in the future. This implies that it is preferable to implement some policy in each sector, insofar as this is politically feasible, with less politically challenged sectors compensating with a marginal increase in policy ambition. The paper further elucidates how sectors with high annual emission rates, such as energy, are more costly to delay in comparison to their mid- to low-emission counterparts, such as industry, despite these sectors being nominally more costly sectors to decarbonize. |
| Date: | 2024–11–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10971 |
| By: | Hauer, Mathew; Hardy, Dean (University of Maryland College Park); Zagheni, Emilio; Jorgenson, Andrew |
| Abstract: | Rarely are those most impacted by climate change the same as those most responsible for global carbon emissions. Assignment of responsibility for carbon emissions typically differentiates emissions across space and time but not birth cohort. Including young birth cohorts complicates assessments as they have yet to emit as much as older cohorts. Using formal demographic methods, we develop an approach to estimate carbon emissions across space, across time, and across the life course, creating a unified carbon emissions identity, comparable to other well-known carbon identities. We estimate the birth cohorts born between 1850 and 2020 with the highest lifetime carbon emissions. We show that globally, cohorts born between 1970 and 1990 have the highest lifetime emissions under a moderate carbon emissions pathway and those born since 2000 under a high emissions pathway. Our results suggest that carbon emissions pathways play the strongest role in determining which cohorts will be associated with the highest lifetime carbon emissions, with lower pathways suggesting earlier cohorts and higher pathways suggesting later cohorts. |
| Date: | 2024–12–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:pv2n5_v1 |
| By: | Jooste, Charl; Mcisaac, Florent John; Haider, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This paper describes power sector modeling methodologies for the World Bank’s macrostructural model — MFMod. Macrostructural models generally do not model sectors, such as the power sector, in detail, limiting their capacity to represent deep system transformation (for example, low-carbon energy transitions). The main constraints to adequate sector modeling are data availability and technological representation of the power system. Time-series data for specific production factors across sectors do not exist consistently for most countries in World Bank models. This paper describes two distinct methods to overcome this constraint: (i) using a more granular representation of the production function and (ii) linking the macrostructural model with the World Bank's electricity planning models. These methods provide a more nuanced technical representation of deep transformations, enabling discussions on their macroeconomic consequences. The paper provides results for Mauritania and South Africa. These methodologies serve as a blueprint for macroeconomic modeling of energy transitions in this class of models. |
| Date: | 2024–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10854 |
| By: | Robayo, Monica; Rude, Britta Laurin |
| Abstract: | Addressing energy poverty has emerged as one of the main challenges for Bulgaria's poverty and social inclusion policy, particularly in the context of the European Green Deal and the current crisis in Ukraine. To tackle the adverse impacts of energy poverty effectively, a crucial initial step involves accurately defining and measuring this issue. Identifying households affected by energy poverty is essential for shaping and implementing targeted policies. This study explores various definitions of energy poverty within the Bulgarian context by (1) systematically reviewing current methodologies and measures employed in the EU context; (2) assessing the feasibility of implementing these measures in Bulgaria based on data availability, comparing the incidence of energy poverty using alternative measures, and presenting characteristics of energy poverty to inform potential policy instruments; and (3) providing policy recommendations for the measurement and monitoring of energy poverty. The way energy poverty is measured and the overlap with income poverty shape the types of policy solutions perceived to be possible and appropriate to address it. The evaluation supports the need to shift from single indicators to multidimensional approaches in measuring energy poverty. Additionally, enhancing the granularity, quality, and frequency of expenditure and income surveys can contribute to easier operationalization of these concepts and a better understanding of the demographics of energy poverty. The study proposes exploring alternative data generation methods, such as smart meters, further to enhance insights into the dynamics of energy poverty. |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10827 |
| By: | Amrita Goldar (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Rajesh Chadha; Siddharth Goel; Rishabh Jain |
| Abstract: | This report provides a national roadmap for India to secure CETMs needed for its clean energy transition by addressing immediate and long-term challengesthrough strategic policy interventions and international cooperation. This volume aims to provide a detailed understanding of the various factors affecting the supply and demand of the six priority critical energy transition minerals (CETMs) selected for this study: copper, lithium, manganese, nickel, and neodymium. In particular, it covers: Production & Reserves, Processing, Supply Challenges, Geopolitical Dynamics, Key Players in the Supply Chain, Market and Pricing, Recycling, ESG Issues, etc. |
| Keywords: | supply chain, miniral policy, CETMs, clean energy, icrier |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:25-r-05 |
| By: | Jaller, Miguel PhD; Pahwa, Anmol PhD; Saphores, Jean-Daniel PhD; Hyland, Michael PhD |
| Abstract: | As online shopping nears its third decade, it is clear that its impacts on urban goods flow are profound. Increased freight traffic and related negative externalities such as greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollution can impede sustainability goals. In response, e-retailers are exploring innovative distribution strategies to enhance last-mile delivery sustainability and efficiency. They use urban consolidation centers with light-duty vehicles like electric vans and cargo bikes, establish alternative customer pickup points, and deploy crowdsourced delivery networks. Advanced technologies that may streamline deliveries, such as autonomous delivery robots and unmanned aerial vehicles, are being tested. University of California Davis and Irvine researchers have investigated these strategies under economic viability, environmental efficiency, and social equity frameworks. Different modeling approaches were implemented to evaluate last-mile network designs and the potential for decarbonizing delivery fleets by switching to electric vehicles. Key findings suggest that while these innovative strategies offer substantial environmental benefits and reduce operational costs, they also present challenges like higher initial investments and operational hurdles. The study emphasizes the need for ongoing innovation and careful strategy implementation to balance sustainability with urban delivery systems’ economic and service reliability demands. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, First and last mile, electronic commerce, delivery service, delivery vehicles, electric vehicles, vehicle fleets, sustainable transportation, social equity |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt98x6z26j |
| By: | Rousseau, Lola; Næss, Jan Sandstad; Carrer, Fabio; Amini, Sara; Brattebø, Helge; Hertwich, Edgar (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Resource efficiency strategies are key to reduce material use and help limit global warming to below 2°C in 2100. Understanding the role of such strategies at municipal-level requires a localized approach. Here we evaluate a ramp-up of resource efficiency strategies and their associated effects on vehicle usage and climate benefits towards 2050 for 19 individual sub-regions within the Greater Oslo region in Norway. In our scenarios, material stocks increase from 344 megatonnes (Mt) in 2022 to 349-367 Mt in 2050 driven by population growth, with low-end estimate relying on a sufficiency scenario limiting floor area per capita and banning new single-family houses. The sufficiency (SUF) scenario reduces total material consumption until 2050 (48 Mt) with 28% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario (66.3 Mt) with continuation of ongoing trends, thereby reducing GHG emissions from material production by 17% (BAU: 12.44 MtCO2-eq, SUF: 10.36 MtCO2-eq). If resource efficiency strategies are combined with rapid material production decarbonization in-line with a 2°C scenario, a 30% reduction in emissions is achievable (8.67 MtCO2-eq). Car ownership rates and traveled distance per capita decrease in the sufficiency scenario compared to 2022 with 6.4%. Assuming the current relationship between settlement characteristics and transport demand, total driving distance fails to decline due to population growth. Limiting the floor-area per capita in residential buildings significantly decreases material demand. Resource efficiency strategies including densification need to be complemented with a rapid decarbonization of material supply and stronger incentives to move away from car driving to maximize climate change mitigation. |
| Date: | 2025–01–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9ek48_v1 |
| By: | Ayan Qu |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how effective an incremental change in the price of fuel, a proxy for fuel carbon tax, is in reducing the emission intensity of road transportation in Brazil through panel analysis at the federative unit level from 2010 to 2020, after offering descriptive insights into Brazil’s automotive fuel market with respect to its products, actors, and external factors. The paper postulates multiple variations of panel analysis models and focuses on dynamic two-way fixed effects models based on statistical results. The findings show that (1) the price of diesel has the most significant and robust impact on reducing emission intensity; (2) the short-run and long-run elasticities of the price of diesel are -0.74 and -2.06, respectively; and (3) both entity and time effects are significant, with the year of 2020 having a consistent effect in reducing emission intensity across the estimated models. |
| Date: | 2024–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10926 |
| By: | Akshay Jaitly (TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation); Renuka Sane (TrustBridge Rule of Law Foundation); Ajay Shah (xKDR Forum) |
| Abstract: | Discussions about the electricity sector have traditionally taken place within a specialised community of experts on electricity. In this paper, we broaden the discussion to look at the problems of the electricity sector in Tamil Nadu from the viewpoint of the economic growth strategy of Tamil Nadu. Electricity investment in Tamil Nadu has faltered. Electricity availability could potentially hamper growth in coming years. Renewable electricity will become particularly important for exporting, and directly connects into the success of Tami Nadu in exporting. There are a group of feedback loops which are playing upon the difficulties of the status quo, which are intensifying the problems of the electricity sector. When we think of the path to a decarbonised electricity sector, a great wave of investment and risk-taking is required. This can only come from the private sector, which commensurately requires 'investibility': a trusted environment of the rules of the game which elicit their confidence. To get to this, policy makers need to grapple with the problems of under-pricing of electricity. While there are many problems in the Tamil Nadu economy, the electricity sector looms large in making a material difference to the outcomes. We sketch a seven part feasible path to reform. |
| JEL: | Q4 H1 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anf:wpaper:38 |
| By: | Budría, S.;; Li Donni, P.;; Zucchelli, E.; |
| Abstract: | Energy poverty and health appear to be closely related, yet robust evidence on whether and how they mutually influence each other over time is still limited. We employ a dynamic latent class model on rich longitudinal data from the Household, Income, and Labor Dynamics in Australia Survey to uncover patterns of dynamic interdependence between energy poverty and ill-health. Our approach integrates key modelliing features, such as state dependence and time-varying unobserved heterogeneity, while also revealing and quantifying mechanisms of joint depenedence over time. Unlike previous studies, our model shows that although energy poverty and ill-health seem to mutually influence each other, the effect of ill-health on energy power appears to be comparatively larger, suggesting that ill-health might be a stepping stone to energy poverty. In addition, we identify three main types of individuals corresponding to different socioeconomic profiles and varying levels of vulnerability to changes in energy prices. These findings may indicate the need for targeted interventions rather than exclusive reliance on energy subsidies. |
| Keywords: | energy poverty; health; dynamic latent class models; HILDA; |
| JEL: | C33 C35 I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yor:hectdg:25/01 |
| By: | Böhringer, Christoph; Carolyn Fischer; Rivers, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates alternative options for rebating revenues from a unilateral emissions price, focusing on energy-intensive and trade-exposed industries. A theoretical model is developed to demonstrate that conditional rebating policies---which would be distortionary in a first-best world---may be welfare-improving. For example, this could occur in a context where emissions leakage and terms-of-trade changes are associated with the introduction of an emissions price, or when political constraints prevent the emissions price from fully reflecting the social cost of the emissions. A numerical simulation model is used to quantify the differences in welfare, leakage, terms of trade, output, and emissions across carbon prices with alternative rebating options for these leakage-prone industries. The different situations of the European Union and the United States are used as examples. The findings indicate that from a domestic perspective, rebating emissions revenues proportionately to firm output is typically superior to other rebating options when the emissions price is set close to the social cost of emissions. Rebating emission revenues to reward reductions in emissions intensity is typically superior when emissions are significantly under-priced. A country that is more emissions-intensive and less exposed to leakage may prefer to rebate in proportion to total abatement when the emissions price is sufficiently low. The quantitative results indicate that there are significant welfare losses for incorrect choices of the rebating option. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10922 |
| By: | Resende, Davi; Richter, Gabriel; Sant'Anna, Marcelo (Fundação Getulio Vargas); Trindade, André |
| Abstract: | In certain settings, goods can be consumed outside of formal markets (e.g.: theft, counterfeit, or illegal sharing of subscriptions). When the share of informality is large, firms’ pricing decisions can be substantially affected, as the extensive margin - customers migrating to informal consumption - makes demand more elastic. We study this question in the context of electricity theft in Brazil, where stolen energy can represent more than 50% of the total formal market. We use detailed micro data from a major electric utility to estimate a structural model where consumers choose if they want to be formal or informal and then, how much to consume. For identification, we leverage a natural experiment where prices increased permanently to a set of consumers. We use the model to simulate counterfactual scenarios where: (i) theft is not possible, and (ii) the firm uses different pricing strategies. We find that the presence of informality increases the elasticity of demand from 0.24 to 0.39, and reduces monopoly optimal prices by 10.4%. Eliminating theft altogether would allow the firm to reduce prices by 17.7% while keeping profits constant. We also find that price discrimination is an effective tool to reduce informality rates. |
| Date: | 2025–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:m4ev5_v1 |
| By: | Baquie, Sandra; Behrer, Arnold Patrick; Du, Xinming; Fuchs Tarlovsky, Alan; Nozaki, Natsuko Kiso |
| Abstract: | Middle-income countries host the majority of the world’s population exposed to unhealthy levels of air pollution, and the majority of this population lives in urban environments. This study investigates the impact of information provision on household behavior in connection with indoor and outdoor air pollution in a middle-income country’s major urban center — Tbilisi, Georgia. The study implemented a randomized controlled trial to assess whether providing households with different levels of pollution information changes their knowledge of air pollution and avoidance behavior with respect to air pollution, and improves their health outcomes. The study evaluates three treatments: a pamphlet with general information on pollution, the pamphlet combined with daily text messages about local outdoor pollution, and the pamphlet with messages about both indoor and outdoor pollution levels, supplemented with an indoor air pollution monitor. The findings show that while the pamphlet alone did not lead to behavioral change, daily text messages significantly enhanced knowledge about pollution, led to increased avoidance behaviors, and improved health outcomes. The study also examined infiltration rates throughout the city and document three facts: indoor air pollution levels are generally higher than outdoor ones, infiltration rates are high on average, and their variation is driven primarily by behaviors. |
| Date: | 2024–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10852 |
| By: | Hoffmann, Bridget; Sveta Milusheva |
| Abstract: | While populations in low- and middle-income countries are exposed to some of the highest levels of air pollution and its consequences, the majority of economics research on the topic is focused on high-income settings where there is greater data availability. This paper compares and evaluates the three principal sources of air pollution data (regulatory-grade monitors, satellites, and low-cost monitors) in a Sub-Saharan African context in terms of the accuracy of measurements of inhalable fine particulate matter across spatial and temporal frequencies and their performance when studying policy impacts. Satellite data is closely aligned with data from the regulatory-grade monitors at lower temporal frequencies. The low-cost monitors underestimate the amount of fine particulate matter relative to the other data sources. Calibration, especially context-specific calibration, of the low-cost monitors' data improves its alignment with other data sources. The paper uses each data source to evaluate the air pollution externality of mobility reduction policies using a difference-in-differences design and finds similar results, especially in terms of percent reduction. The paper considers policy makers' constraints to air pollution monitoring in low-income settings and demonstrates that co-locating one regulatory-grade monitor in a network of low-cost monitors can capture the spatial variation of pollution across an urban area and achieve better accuracy than either of these data sources alone. This provides a framework for policy makers to generate the data needed to evaluate environmental policies and externalities. |
| Date: | 2024–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10957 |
| By: | Bickenbach, Frank; Bode, Eckhardt; Dohse, Dirk; Görg, Holger; Heidland, Tobias; Hinz, Julian; Langhammer, Rolf J.; Liu, Wan-hsin; Rickels, Wilfried; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | Europe: • Germany must once again see itself as an important part of and a leading nation within the EU. The new German government should consistently think and act in a European way on foreign trade issues. • Only a strong EU single market can compete on equal terms with the USA and China. Together, the EU has strong market power that can be used to counteract trade-restricting measures and enable fair international competition. • The markets for digital products, financial services and energy are still highly fragmented in Europe. The single market must therefore finally be completed. Furthermore, a strong European market for venture capital, a capital market and banking union is needed. China: • In the negotiations on countervailing duties for electric cars produced in China, the EU should not engage in sham solutions such as minimum prices or import quotas but should insist on the reduction of unfair subsidies and better protection of European companies against discrimination in the Chinese market. The German government should support the Commission in this. • Together with the other EU member states and the Commission, the new German government should quickly develop an appropriate regulatory framework to effectively counter threats to national security that may arise from the use of Chinese products in safety-related areas and critical infrastructures in the EU. USA: • Trump's announced import tariffs on European goods would affect the German automotive industry and other export-oriented sectors. With additional tariffs of 10%, German exports to the US would fall by up to 10% in the medium term. • The EU's united stance on targeted countermeasures and increased investment in defense in Europe should be part of the strategic response to Trump's unpredictable trade policy. At the same time, Europe should champion openness and liberalization in its relations with the rest of the world. Trade Agreements: • The EU Commission's plans to conclude trade agreements with regional communities beyond Mercosur should be supported by the German government. The EU's sustainability standards should be adapted to the level of development of the partners to trade agreements. Africa: • Germany must develop a strategic Africa policy that aims at long-term common interests. Germany should act as a long-term and reliable partner to Africa, taking a leading role within the EU and developing resource partnerships. Migration policy should not aim at isolation but be orientated towards opportunity. Security of raw materials: • The German government should support the EU's plans for intensive monitoring of the supply situation for strategically important raw materials, intermediate and finished products, and define criteria for security of supply in selected areas, such as antibiotics. In addition, it should promote the research for and development of economically superior alternative products European climate policy: • The EU emissions trading system for the transport and building sector should be implemented swiftly and established as a central climate instrument in the long term by adjusting the initial allocation of allowances. CO2 removal should be supported and corresponding certificates stored for later crediting periods. • The introduction of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) should be maintained, but other trade barriers should be removed at the same time. Developing countries should be supported in collecting emissions data. |
| Abstract: | Europa: • Deutschland muss sich wieder als wichtiger Teil und als eine der Führungsnationen der EU verstehen. Die neue Bundesregierung sollte in außenwirtschaftlichen Fragen konsequent europäisch denken und handeln. • Nur ein starker EU-Binnenmarkt schafft Augenhöhe mit den USA und China. Gemeinsam hat die EU eine starke Marktmacht, die eingesetzt werden kann, um handelsbeschränkenden Maßnahmen entgegenzuwirken und einen fairen internationalen Wettbewerb zu ermöglichen. • Die Märkte für digitale Produkte, Finanzdienstleistungen und Energie sind in Europa nach wie vor stark fragmentiert. Der Binnenmarkt muss daher endlich vollendet werden. Es bedarf eines starken europäischen Marktes für Risikokapital sowie einer Kapitalmarkt- und Bankenunion. China: • In den Verhandlungen über Ausgleichszölle für in China produzierte Elektroautos sollte sich die EU nicht auf Scheinlösungen wie Mindestpreise oder Importquoten einlassen, sondern auf dem Abbau unfairer Subventionen und einem besseren Schutz europäischer Unternehmen vor Diskriminierung auf dem chinesischen Markt bestehen. Die Bundesregierung sollte der Kommission dabei den Rücken stärken. • Gemeinsam mit den anderen EU-Mitgliedstaaten und der Kommission sollte die neue Bundesregierung rasch ein geeignetes regulatorisches Regelwerk erarbeiten, um Gefahren für die nationale Sicherheit, die sich aus dem Einsatz chinesischer Produkte in sicherheitsrelevanten Bereichen und kritischen Infrastrukturen der EU ergeben können, effektiv zu begegnen. USA: • Die angekündigten Importzölle auf europäische Waren würden die deutsche Automobilindustrie und andere exportorientierte Sektoren treffen. Bei zusätzlichen Zöllen von 10% würden die deutschen Exporte in die USA mittelfristig um bis zu 10% fallen. • Geschlossenes Auftreten der EU bei gezielten Gegenmaßnahmen und höhere Investitionen in Verteidigung in Europa sollten Teil der strategischen Antwort auf die unberechenbare Handelspolitik von Trump sein. Sein Streben nach schnellen Deals kann aber auch Chancen bieten. Europa sollte gleichzeitig zum Champion von Offenheit und Liberalisierung gegenüber dem Rest der Welt werden. Handelsabkommen • Pläne der EU-Kommission, mit regionalen Gemeinschaften über Mercosur hinaus Handelsabkommen zu schließen, sollten von der Bundesregierung unterstützt werden. Nachhaltigkeitsstandards der EU sollten an den Entwicklungsstand der Partner von Handelsabkommen angepasst werden. Afrika: • Deutschland muss eine strategische Afrika-Politik entwickeln, die auf langfristige gemeinsame Interessen zielt. Deutschland sollte gegenüber Afrika als langfristiger und verlässlicher Partner auftreten und darin eine Führungsrolle innerhalb der EU übernehmen und Ressourcenpartnerschaften entwickeln. Die Migrationspolitik sollte nicht von Abschottung, sondern von Chancenorientierung geprägt sein. Rohstoffsicherheit: • Die Bundesregierung sollte das von der EU geplante intensive Monitoring der Versorgungslage mit strategisch wichtigen Rohstoffen, Zwischen- und Fertigprodukten unterstützen und in auch in anderen Bereichen wie z.B. bei Antibiotika Kriterien für Versorgungssicherheit definieren. Die Bundesregierung sollte zudem die Erforschung und Entwicklung wirtschaftlich überlegener alternativer Produkte gezielt fördern. Europäische Klimapolitik: • Das EU-Emissionshandelssystem für den Verkehrs- und Gebäudesektor sollte zügig umgesetzt und langfristig als zentrales Klimainstrument mit Anpassung der Zertifikateallokation etabliert werden. Die CO2-Entnahme sollte unterstützt und die entsprechenden Zertifikate für spätere Anrechnungszeiträume gespeichert werden. • An der Einführung des CO2-Grenzausgleichs (CBAM) sollte festgehalten werden, aber gleichzeitig andere Handelshemmnisse abgebaut werden. Entwicklungsländer sollten bei der Erfassung von Emissionsdaten unterstützt werden. |
| Keywords: | foreign trade, German federal election, China, USA, Africa, trade agreement, climate policy, Außenwirtschaft, Bundestagswahl, China, USA, Afrika, Handelsabkommen, Klimapolitik |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:311213 |
| By: | Bickenbach, Frank; Bode, Eckhardt; Dohse, Dirk; Görg, Holger; Heidland, Tobias; Hinz, Julian; Langhammer, Rolf J.; Liu, Wan-hsin; Rickels, Wilfried; Schularick, Moritz |
| Abstract: | Europa: • Deutschland muss sich wieder als wichtiger Teil und als eine der Führungsnationen der EU verstehen. Die neue Bundesregierung sollte in außenwirtschaftlichen Fragen konsequent europäisch denken und handeln. • Nur ein starker EU-Binnenmarkt schafft Augenhöhe mit den USA und China. Gemeinsam hat die EU eine starke Marktmacht, die eingesetzt werden kann, um handelsbeschränkenden Maßnahmen entgegenzuwirken und einen fairen internationalen Wettbewerb zu ermöglichen. • Die Märkte für digitale Produkte, Finanzdienstleistungen und Energie sind in Europa nach wie vor stark fragmentiert. Der Binnenmarkt muss daher endlich vollendet werden. Es bedarf eines starken europäischen Marktes für Risikokapital sowie einer Kapitalmarkt- und Bankenunion. China: • In den Verhandlungen über Ausgleichszölle für in China produzierte Elektroautos sollte sich die EU nicht auf Scheinlösungen wie Mindestpreise oder Importquoten einlassen, sondern auf dem Abbau unfairer Subventionen und einem besseren Schutz europäischer Unternehmen vor Diskriminierung auf dem chinesischen Markt bestehen. Die Bundesregierung sollte der Kommission dabei den Rücken stärken. • Gemeinsam mit den anderen EU-Mitgliedstaaten und der Kommission sollte die neue Bundesregierung rasch ein geeignetes regulatorisches Regelwerk erarbeiten, um Gefahren für die nationale Sicherheit, die sich aus dem Einsatz chinesischer Produkte in sicherheitsrelevanten Bereichen und kritischen Infrastrukturen der EU ergeben können, effektiv zu begegnen. USA: • Die angekündigten Importzölle auf europäische Waren würden die deutsche Automobilindustrie und andere exportorientierte Sektoren treffen. Bei zusätzlichen Zöllen von 10% würden die deutschen Exporte in die USA mittelfristig um bis zu 10% fallen. • Geschlossenes Auftreten der EU bei gezielten Gegenmaßnahmen und höhere Investitionen in Verteidigung in Europa sollten Teil der strategischen Antwort auf die unberechenbare Handelspolitik von Trump sein. Sein Streben nach schnellen Deals kann aber auch Chancen bieten. Europa sollte gleichzeitig zum Champion von Offenheit und Liberalisierung gegenüber dem Rest der Welt werden. Handelsabkommen • Pläne der EU-Kommission, mit regionalen Gemeinschaften über Mercosur hinaus Handelsabkommen zu schließen, sollten von der Bundesregierung unterstützt werden. Nachhaltigkeitsstandards der EU sollten an den Entwicklungsstand der Partner von Handelsabkommen angepasst werden. Afrika: • Deutschland muss eine strategische Afrika-Politik entwickeln, die auf langfristige gemeinsame Interessen zielt. Deutschland sollte gegenüber Afrika als langfristiger und verlässlicher Partner auftreten und darin eine Führungsrolle innerhalb der EU übernehmen und Ressourcenpartnerschaften entwickeln. Die Migrationspolitik sollte nicht von Abschottung, sondern von Chancenorientierung geprägt sein. Rohstoffsicherheit: • Die Bundesregierung sollte das von der EU geplante intensive Monitoring der Versorgungslage mit strategisch wichtigen Rohstoffen, Zwischen- und Fertigprodukten unterstützen und in auch in anderen Bereichen wie z.B. bei Antibiotika Kriterien für Versorgungssicherheit definieren. Die Bundesregierung sollte zudem die Erforschung und Entwicklung wirtschaftlich überlegener alternativer Produkte gezielt fördern. Europäische Klimapolitik: • Das EU-Emissionshandelssystem für den Verkehrs- und Gebäudesektor sollte zügig umgesetzt und langfristig als zentrales Klimainstrument mit Anpassung der Zertifikateallokation etabliert werden. Die CO2-Entnahme sollte unterstützt und die entsprechenden Zertifikate für spätere Anrechnungszeiträume gespeichert werden. • An der Einführung des CO2-Grenzausgleichs (CBAM) sollte festgehalten werden, aber gleichzeitig andere Handelshemmnisse abgebaut werden. Entwicklungsländer sollten bei der Erfassung von Emissionsdaten unterstützt werden. |
| Abstract: | Europe: • Germany must once again see itself as an important part of and a leading nation within the EU. The new German government should consistently think and act in a European way on foreign trade issues. • Only a strong EU single market can compete on equal terms with the USA and China. Together, the EU has strong market power that can be used to counteract trade-restricting measures and enable fair international competition. • The markets for digital products, financial services and energy are still highly fragmented in Europe. The single market must therefore finally be completed. Furthermore, a strong European market for venture capital, a capital market and banking union is needed. China: • In the negotiations on countervailing duties for electric cars produced in China, the EU should not engage in sham solutions such as minimum prices or import quotas but should insist on the reduction of unfair subsidies and better protection of European companies against discrimination in the Chinese market. The German government should support the Commission in this. • Together with the other EU member states and the Commission, the new German government should quickly develop an appropriate regulatory framework to effectively counter threats to national security that may arise from the use of Chinese products in safety-related areas and critical infrastructures in the EU. USA: • Trump's announced import tariffs on European goods would affect the German automotive industry and other export-oriented sectors. With additional tariffs of 10%, German exports to the US would fall by up to 10% in the medium term. • The EU's united stance on targeted countermeasures and increased investment in defense in Europe should be part of the strategic response to Trump's unpredictable trade policy. At the same time, Europe should champion openness and liberalization in its relations with the rest of the world. Trade Agreements: • The EU Commission's plans to conclude trade agreements with regional communities beyond Mercosur should be supported by the German government. The EU's sustainability standards should be adapted to the level of development of the partners to trade agreements. Africa: • Germany must develop a strategic Africa policy that aims at long-term common interests. Germany should act as a long-term and reliable partner to Africa, taking a leading role within the EU and developing resource partnerships. Migration policy should not aim at isolation but be orientated towards opportunity. Security of raw materials: • The German government should support the EU's plans for intensive monitoring of the supply situation for strategically important raw materials, intermediate and finished products, and define criteria for security of supply in selected areas, such as antibiotics. In addition, it should promote the research for and development of economically superior alternative products European climate policy: • The EU emissions trading system for the transport and building sector should be implemented swiftly and established as a central climate instrument in the long term by adjusting the initial allocation of allowances. CO2 removal should be supported and corresponding certificates stored for later crediting periods. • The introduction of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) should be maintained, but other trade barriers should be removed at the same time. Developing countries should be supported in collecting emissions data. |
| Keywords: | Außenwirtschaft, Bundestagswahl, China, USA, Afrika, Handelsabkommen, Klimapolitik, foreign trade, German federal election, China, USA, Africa, trade agreement, climate policy |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:311214 |
| By: | Bulut, Hamid; Samuel, Robin |
| Abstract: | In the face of climate change, the principles of distributive social justice have become paramount in addressing the implications of resource allocation and the unequal impacts of environmental degradation. Our study explores the relationship between distributive social justice and environmental attitudes among young people in the context of climate change. Using a natural experimental design, we examine how the 2021 European Floods influenced social justice and environmental attitudes. Our results indicate significant shifts in attitudes, particularly regarding social justice, following the flooding. We found a strong and robust relationship between social justice and environmental attitudes. A causal mediation analysis revealed that floods affected environmental attitudes indirectly through social justice attitudes beyond direct effects. Our results emphasise the importance of integrating the principles of justice in addressing climate change and suggest that young people’s perspectives on social justice play a crucial role in shaping environmental policies and responses to climate crises. |
| Date: | 2025–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gx4hc_v2 |
| By: | Amini, Sara; Rousseau, Lola; Hertwich, Edgar (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | As buildings become more energy efficient due to construction and technological improvements and stricter regulations, the impact of construction and maintenance materials is gaining prominence in the life cycle emissions of buildings. In high-income countries like Norway, renovation of the existing building stock is crucial for reducing overall environmental impacts. However, there is a lack of comprehensive data on the life cycle assessment (LCA) of Norwegian buildings, especially concerning material use and embodied emissions. Building archetypes offer a solution by providing structured background data to enhance LCA studies. This paper addresses this gap by examining the space heating demand and material use of residential building archetypes in Norway, categorized by type and construction cohort. Dynamic energy simulations were conducted using EnergyPlus, combined with the BuildME Python package for material aggregation and calculation. Our results show that structural components dominate the material intensity (MI) of most archetypes, particularly in buildings with basements. Multi-family houses (MFHs) built after 1991 outperform single-family houses (SFHs) and apartment blocks (ABs) in both MI and material per person (MpP). Renovating SFHs to accommodate more occupants could reduce their MpP while maintaining a comfortable living environment. The higher MI in ABs, driven by concrete floor decks, suggests that using wood in future constructions could significantly lower both MI and MpP, reducing resource use and embodied emissions. This work links energy performance with material efficiency, offering valuable data for improving policy and practices in the Norwegian building sector. |
| Date: | 2024–11–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:emsa4_v1 |
| By: | Lécureur, Clairelou |
| Abstract: | This first issue of the Enseignements du Lab collection provides a transversal reading of the results of four collective projects linked to the ecological transition in working-class neighbourhoods. It focuses on the sociological dimension of the climate crisis and, more specifically, on environmental inequalities. The link between environmental issues and inequalities is not new, but it is increasingly being studied, mainly through the prism of working-class neighbourhoods. Indeed, residents of low-income urban areas are more vulnerable to the consequences of climate change. And this, even though they contribute to it the least, through their consumption. After presenting the specific context and potential of working-class neighbourhoods to contribute to the social and ecological transition, this publication answers the following question: what actions are possible in working-class neighbourhoods to address environmental inequalities and move towards greater environmental justice? |
| Date: | 2024–10–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:d4pwh_v1 |
| By: | Yavuz Selim Sahin |
| Abstract: | [TR] Bu calismada, 2017-2024 donemi icin sanayi uretimi ile elektrik tuketimi arasindaki iliski incelenmekte ve iki seri arasinda son donemde gozlenen ayrisma ortaya koyulmaktadir. Sanayi uretimi ile elektrik tuketimi iliskisini toplam elektrik tuketimi verisini kullanarak inceleyen onceki calismalarin aksine, bu calismada, soz konusu iliski, sanayi sektorunun elektrik tuketimi kullanilarak da incelenmektedir. Bu dogrultuda, sanayinin elektrik tuketiminin toplam elektrik tuketimine kiyasla sanayi uretimiyle korelasyonunun daha yuksek oldugu gosterilmektedir. Sanayi uretimi ile elektrik gostergeleri arasindaki ayrismanin nedenlerine iliskin olarak ise, 2021 yili sonrasi artan elektrik maliyetleriyle birlikte sanayi kuruluslarinin kendi tesislerinde elektrik uretimini artirmasi, ancak bunun toplam rakamlar icinde raporlanmamasi nedeniyle elektrik tuketimi verilerinin gecmis doneme kiyasla daha zayif bir gorunume isaret ediyor olabilecegi degerlendirilmektedir. [EN] In this study, the relationship between industrial production and electricity consumption for the period 2017-2024 is examined, and the recently observed divergence between the two series is revealed. Unlike previous studies that examined the relationship between industrial production and electricity consumption using total electricity consumption data, this study examines the relationship also using the electricity consumption of the industrial sector. Accordingly, it is shown that the correlation between industrial electricity consumption and industrial production is higher compared to total electricity consumption. Regarding the reasons for the divergence between industrial production and electricity indicators, it is evaluated that the electricity consumption data may indicate a weaker outlook compared to the previous period due to the fact that industrial enterprises increased electricity production in their own facilities with the increasing electricity costs after 2021, yet this was not reported in the total figures. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2502 |
| By: | Davis, Graham A.; Chadi Bou Habib; Solheim, Gaute; Martin Lokanc |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of mining projects, with a focus on green minerals. The research question is the effect of political risk on investment decisions, the size of projects, the volume of ore mined, and the ensuing resource rents captured by the host country. The paper shows the challenges of measuring and capturing resource rents, using a mathematical model of resource rent maximization for the host country under the constraint of a positive after-tax cash flow for investors. The analysis finds that the optimal approach for taxing extraction is a progressive profit tax on mining revenues that generates revenues for the country while minimally deterring investment. Alternatively, taxing cash flow, which can be non-distortionary, can be implemented. Using the S&P Capital IQ database, the analysis finds that the low-quality of governance, institutions, infrastructure, skills, and services dampens the exploration and exploitation of copper, a key mineral for green energy. The opportunity cost in terms of unexplored or underexploited deposits translates into suboptimal global copper production and forgone revenues for the poorest host countries. To unlock exploration, the paper proposes measures to mitigate political risk, including investing in geological surveys and institutions and designing stable tax systems. For underexploited projects, it proposes that countries not only invest in infrastructure, skills, and services, but also improve governance and institutions. This would lower the metal grade at which investors would be willing to commit, ultimately producing more metal from identified mineral deposits. Interventions from international financial institutions can help to alleviate all country risks, including political risks, that hinder credible intertemporal commitments between investors and countries. |
| Date: | 2024–11–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10965 |
| By: | Britta Laurin Rude; Monica Robayo |
| Abstract: | To design effective policy instruments that target the energy poor in Romania, it is crucial to understand who the energy poor are. However, these types of analyses are limited by the current data environment. While monetary energy poverty estimates rely on data from expenditure surveys, traditional welfare indicators and detailed information on access to social protection programs form part of the EU-SILC. Samples of both surveys differ; consequently, record linkage of both surveys is impossible. This paper propose an alternative solution to combine information from both surveys, namely statistical matching techniques. It applies several imputation models to impute information on energy spending shares from the HBS into the EU-SILC based on a set of matching variables, compare the performance of these models and apply the best-performing one. Based on the resulting matched dataset, the results show that nearly all the monetary poor are also energy poor, but that a significant additional share of the population in Romania is energy poor. Energy poverty rates are higher at the lower end of the welfare distribution. This result has significant welfare implications. |
| Date: | 2024–09–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10917 |
| By: | Fisera, Boris; Martin Melecky; Dorothe Singer |
| Abstract: | Financial deepening contributes to economic development, but its effect on the carbon intensity of production is an open empirical question. If banks finance investments in new, greener technologies, they can contribute to lowering carbon dioxide emissions per unit of output. But if they finance investments in more traditional, carbon-intensive technologies, they can contribute to increasing carbon dioxide emissions per unit of output. This paper studies the impact of financial deepening—an increased provision of bank credit as a share of gross domestic product—on carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of gross domestic product in a global sample of 125 economies from 1990 to 2019. Using a local projections approach, the paper finds that, on average, financial deepening leads to a relative increase in carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of gross domestic product, indicating that financial institutions finance relatively more carbon-intensive investments and consumption. However, a better institutional environment mitigates this adverse effect of financial deepening: conditional local projections reveal that in countries with more environmental regulations, a stronger rule of law, and a financial system that is relatively more market- than bank-based, financial deepening does not lead to higher carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of gross domestic product. Specifically, the results show that countries with an initially lower carbon intensity of production can mitigate the average adverse effect of financial deepening on carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of gross domestic product by improving their general institutional environment proxied by adherence to the rule of law, and, to some extent, by developing their financial markets. By contrast, countries with an initially higher carbon intensity of production are better off focusing on environmental regulations to mitigate the unconditional adverse effect of financial deepening on carbon dioxide emissions per dollar of gross domestic product. |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10948 |
| By: | Jinchi Dong; Richard S. J. Tol; Fangzhi Wang |
| Abstract: | Preference heterogeneity massively increases the social cost of carbon. We call this the Weitzman premium. Uncertainty about an exponential discount rate implies a hyperbolic discount rate, which in the near term is equal to the average discount rate but in the long term falls to the minimum discount rate. We calibrate the pure rate of time preference and the inverse of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution of 79, 273 individuals from 76 countries and compute the corresponding social cost of carbon. Compared to the social cost of carbon for average time preferences, the average social cost of carbon is 6 times as large in the base calibration, and up to 200 times as large in sensitivity analyses. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.01394 |
| By: | Sheykhha, siamak (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Daun, Philipp (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Praktiknjo, Aaron (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we conceptualize an updatable, detailed, and holistic technology radar compatible with all stages of the energy value chain. We formulate six different criteria that encompass all significant aspects of evaluating important game-changing technologies. In addition, a new criterion - the surprise factor - is developed to balance the potentially biased perspectives of experts on technologies and trends. Additionally, a new concept, called sector impact analysis, is added to the in-depth stage of the energy value chain analysis to assess the influence of dynamic trends and technological inter-relatedness. The proposed tool, constructed from a combination of quantitative and qualitative assessments, can help decision-makers to dynamically assess upcoming game-changer technologies and trends in their business domains |
| Keywords: | Technology radar; Energy transition; Game-changing technology; Technology assessment |
| JEL: | A11 F14 |
| Date: | 2023–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2023_014 |
| By: | Bao We Wal Bambe; Chadi Bou Habib; Joaquin Marandino Peregalli |
| Abstract: | Global oil prices have surged in recent decades, significantly hurting household living standards. In response to rising prices, many governments introduced fuel price subsidy to protect the most vulnerable populations. The literature is almost unanimous that fuel price subsidies are inefficient and generate significant socioeconomic and environmental costs. However, it is also acknowledged that subsidies often represent a significant proportion of poor households' income, so removing them can have devastating effects. Moreover, given that fuel is a key input to economic activity, removing subsidies would alter the cost structure of specific sectors, with impacts on employment, competitiveness, and, ultimately, households’ welfare. One important question then is how policy makers can reduce the distorting effects of fuel subsidies while implementing effective measures to curb the adverse effects of price rises on the economy and poor households. This paper reviews the literature on this issue, discusses alternative policies to fuel subsidies, and provides scenarios that simulate cost and price shocks and fiscal savings for fuel subsidy reforms in Angola. Using an input-output table, the analysis estimates that gradual removal of the subsidies until full removal would result in a cumulative price increase of around 5.0 percent. The highest increases would be in fisheries and transportation (20 percent on average). Fully compensating for the price increase in the two sectors would absorb around 30 percent of the savings (around 1.0 percent of gross domestic product), notwithstanding the form and channel this compensation would take. This sector granularity is crucial to anticipate the potential negative effects of subsidy removals for various social and economic groups involved with a given sector as users or as producers. |
| Date: | 2024–10–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10939 |
| By: | Michael M. Lokshin; Hannon, Michael; Miguel Purroy; Ivan Torre |
| Abstract: | This study explores the relationship between perceptions of catastrophic events and beliefs about climate change. Using data from the 2023 Life in Transition Survey, the study finds that contrary to conventional wisdom, more accurate knowledge about past catastrophes is associated with lower concern about climate change. The paper proposes that heightened threat sensitivity may underlie both the tendency to overestimate disaster impacts and increased concern about climate change. The findings challenge the assumption that a more informed citizenry necessarily leads to better climate policy decisions. Instead, they suggest that psychological factors, like anxiety and risk perception, play crucial roles in shaping climate attitudes. Illuminating these dynamics can help societies to foster a more nuanced and constructive public dialogue about the urgent challenges facing our planet and our species. |
| Date: | 2024–09–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10921 |
| By: | Elcin Akcura; Emelly Mutambatsere |
| Abstract: | The design of the power market determines how the sector can address complex economic, social, environmental, and engineering challenges to deliver sustainable and reliable electricity at least cost to consumers. This is no simple task, as supply and demand must be balanced every second, multiple resource and network constraints must be satisfied, and the market must send the correct price signals to motivate efficient generation and investment in the sector over time. There is significant heterogeneity in the electricity market designs adopted by countries globally. No “one-type-fits-all” blueprint exists, and for any design to function well, the country, political, and economic context matters. At this juncture, the experimentation continues. This paper takes stock of the global patterns and trends in the adoption of different power market design options, utilizing a unique new Global Power Market Structures Database (Akcura 2024) covering 230 economies for the period 1989 to 2024. The paths these countries have taken in structuring their power markets provide valuable lessons on the multiple models that can support the development of the power sector in different country contexts. The paper draws on global experience to shed light on promising design options for the future. |
| Date: | 2024–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10986 |
| By: | Valencia, Oscar; Gamboa-Arbeláez, Juliana; Sánchez, Gustavo |
| Abstract: | This research employs a quadratic exponential model to examine the dynamics of fiscal adjustments in the context of oil shocks. The findings suggest significant state dependence, with past fiscal adjustments increasing the likelihood of future adjustments and an asymmetry in oil shock effects. Supply shocks reduce the probability of fiscal adjustments, while demand shocks increase it. Furthermore, the impact of these shocks depends on several factors. Oil demand shocks positively impact fiscal adjustment even during downturns, providing a stabilizing effect. Net oil exporters are more affected by oil shocks than importers, experiencing more significant negative effects from supply shocks and more benefits from demand shocks. Fiscal institutions play a critical role in mitigating the volatility induced by oil shocks, with fiscal rules targeting primary or structural balances proving particularly effective. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Adjustment;oil shocks;Fiscal Rules;asymmetric effects |
| JEL: | C25 E62 F41 H62 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13980 |
| By: | Ham, Andrés; Vazquez, Emmanuel; Monica Yanez Pagans |
| Abstract: | Transitioning toward sustainable development practices is expected to result in broad changes to economic activity, which will subsequently impact labor markets and change the demand for skills. India established the Skill Council for Green Jobs to identify green jobs and define the skills required for these occupations. This paper applies the Skill Council for Green Jobs definition of green jobs and an international definition of brown jobs to data from the 2019-20 Periodic Labour Force Survey to estimate the size of green and brown employment, document patterns between and within occupations, characterize workers by attributes and skills, and study wage differentials. The results highlight the importance of monitoring green and brown jobs with robust labor market monitoring systems to guide decisions on the sustainability transition and suggest key aspects to consider when investing in green skills and the potential distributive consequences of sustainability policies on the population. |
| Date: | 2024–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10927 |
| By: | Galanis, Giorgos (Queen Mary University of London, Centre for Economic Theory and its Applications, University of Warwick); Ricchiuti, Giorgio (Università degli Studi di Firenze, Complexity Lab in Economics (CLE), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano); Tippet, Ben (King’s College London, University of London) |
| Abstract: | Countries respond differently to climate change, and while this resulting behavioral heterogeneity is empirically observed, its impact on the evolution of global climate action has not been analyzed. This leads to two related questions that we address: (i) what is the role of the variation of preferences in the global political economy of climate action ; and (ii) what are the necessary conditions for sustained high levels of global action? We develop an evolutionary political economy integrated assessment model where heterogeneous countries, in each period, choose whether to take action to reduce emissions or not. Countries’ choices are influenced by their current level of emissions, total participation in climate action, and other idiosyncratic factors capturing their heterogeneity, which depends on income inequality across countries, vulnerability to climate damages, and other political economy factors. Our model shows the possibility of various outcomes, where high levels of sustained global action is only one possibility. The key result is that sustained high levels of global action are achieved only if there is a low degree of heterogeneity in countries’ preferences for action and a strong peer pressure effect. |
| Keywords: | Climate action ; Heterogeneous agents ; Evolutionary dynamics ; Integrated assessment JEL Codes: C62 ; E71 ; F5 ; Q54 ; Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wcreta:91 |
| By: | Gadea Rivas, María Dolores |
| Abstract: | Climate is a long-term issue, and as such, climate forecasts should be designed with a long-term perspective. These forecasts are critical for crafting mitigation policies aimed at achieving one of the primary objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement (PCA) and for designing adaptation strategies to alleviate the adverse effects of climate change. Furthermore, they serve as indispensable tools for assessing climate risks and guiding the green transition effectively. This paper introduces a straightforward method for generating long-term temperature density forecasts using observational data, leveraging the realized quantile methodology developed by Gadea and Gonzalo (JoE, 2020). This methodology transforms unconditional quantiles into time series objects. The resulting forecasts complement those produced by physical climate models, which primarily focus on average temperature values. By contrast, our density forecasts capture broader distributional characteristics, including spatial disparities that are often obscured in mean-based projections. The proposed approach involves conducting an outof-sample forecast model competition and integrating the forecasts from the resulting Pareto-superior models. This method reduces dependency on any single forecast model, enhancing the robustness of the results. Additionally, recognizing climate change as a non-uniform phenomenon, our approach emphasizes the importance of analyzing climate data from a regional perspective, providing differentiated predictions to address the complexities of a heterogeneous future. This regional focus underscores the necessity of accounting for spatial disparities to better assess risks and develop effective policies for mitigation, adaptation, and compensation. Finally, this paper advocates that future climate agreements and policymakers should prioritize analyzing the entire temperature distribution rather than focusing solely on average values. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Long-run climate forecast; Density forecast; Realized quantiles; Trends; Forecast combination; Global warming; Heterogeneous climate change |
| JEL: | C31 C32 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:45946 |
| By: | Stéphane Gauthier (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Fanny Henriet (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | We consider optimal anonymous consumption taxes in situations where the magnitude of an externality varies with individuals who cause it. For instance, urban fuel consumers generate greater pollution damages compared to rural consumers, but both groups are subjected to the same fuel tax. We provide a condition for the validity of the targeting principle, where external concerns are only addressed through the tax imposed on the commodity responsible for the externality. When this condition holds, one can separate the equity/efficiency and environmental components of this tax. An illustration suggests that Pigovian considerations explain most of the fuel tax in France. |
| Keywords: | Targeting principle, Local externality, Pollution, Pigovian tax, Consumption taxes, Fuel, Budget de famille |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04331432 |
| By: | Farnham, David; Eisenberg, Ross Marc; Bonnafous, Luc Marius Jacques |
| Abstract: | As the world endeavors to decarbonize and shift toward sustainable energy sources, power systems will become increasingly dependent on weather conditions. This dependence creates the challenge of managing fluctuations in both power supply and demand (particularly for cooling), which can jeopardize system reliability, particularly during extreme weather events. To what extent will the increases in peak cooling demands manifest more frequent power system disruptions, posing risks to human health and economic activity This paper focuses on urban centers in Southeast Europe and utilizes state-of-the-art climate simulations to estimate changes in the magnitude of extreme heat events. It also estimates the frequency of potential associated power system disruptions and their ensuing impacts on economic activity by assuming an idealized design methodology. The analysis reveals that between 2021 and 2070, urban centers in Southeast Europe may be at risk of an estimated four to nine power system disruptions per decade due to increasing trends in extreme heat events. These disruptions have the potential to incur annual economic costs of up to tens of millions of dollars in some cities. The projected disruptions highlight the challenges of adapting power systems to climate change, even with idealized regular redesign and maintenance efforts. To mitigate power system fragility during heat waves, the paper recommends implementing measures such as securing reserve power capacity, promoting urban cooling through greening initiatives, adopting demand-side management with smart-grid infrastructure, and increasing the deployment of solar power, which typically has high generation potential during heat waves. |
| Date: | 2024–07–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10858 |
| By: | Alexandru Cojocaru; Michael M. Lokshin; Ivan Torre |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates trends in willingness to pay higher taxes to combat climate change in countries of Eastern and Central Europe and Central Asia between 2016 and 2023. Using data from the Life in Transition Survey, it shows that despite increasing attention from policy makers, scientists, and the media, the average shares of respondents willing to pay to combat climate change declined over this period. The paper tests several hypotheses that could explain the deterioration of public readiness to support climate change policies. The most likely explanation is the growing politicization of the climate change agenda in the region. |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10914 |
| By: | Clara Delavallade; Manil Nadir Zenaki; Lea Marie Rouanet; Mousson Estelle Jamel Koussoube |
| Abstract: | Education and skills are two key determinants of earning potential, with sector specialization significantly influencing earnings. This study examines the drivers behind training choices in two high-paying sectors: information and communications technology (ICT) and energy. Drawing on data from 2, 528 individuals seeking vocational training in Côte d’Ivoire, we find that a majority (72% of men and 51% of women) aspire to train in ICT or energy. For both genders, higher levels of education and larger professional networks are positively correlated with selecting training in these high-paying sectors. For women, previous training in similar fields strongly predicts their training choices, highlighting path dependency. Additionally, women benefit more from male role models, which significantly increase their likelihood of choosing a training in ICT or energy. Women with greater agency are also more likely to opt for training in these sectors. Conversely, women holding more traditional views on specific household responsibilities are less likely to choose high-paying sector training. |
| Date: | 2024–09–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10924 |
| By: | Zack Dorner (Lincoln University); Steven Tucker (University of Waikato); Abraham Zhang (Adam Smith Business Svchool, University of Glasgow); Anna Huber (University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna) |
| Abstract: | Information represents the "third wave" of environmental policy. Existing evidence shows consumers increase their willingness to pay (WTP) for environmentally friendly products with clear labelling. However, there is a gap in the literature regarding whether consumers have a willingness to engage (WTE) with detailed information, for example, through a Digital Product Passport (DPP). This technological innovation is part of the European Union's new circular economy action plan. In our theoretical model, a green consumer decides whether to invest in information on how to mitigate their environmental damage, but at a cognitive cost. We test the model in a lab experiment selling an environmentally friendly toothbrush, but information about its environmental credentials is only available through a DPP. We find education on the DPP's purpose is key to increasing revealed WTE when a DPP is available. Participants with a high stated WTE engage with the DPP regardless; the increase in revealed WTE comes from those with a lower stated WTE. Engagement with the DPP, in the case that it contains positive environmental information, increases WTP. The policy implications of our results are that education about the purpose of the DPP is required in order to increase the likelihood of actual consumer engagement with it, as long as it is user friendly. However, engagement with a DPP may not lead to further shifts in environmental orientation and behavior. Our study also demonstrates novel measures of WTE, and how these can be used to understand pro-environmental consumer behavior in a theoretically informed manner. |
| Keywords: | Circular economy; digital product passport; consumer behavior; ecolabel; green consumerism; information-based instruments; pro-environmental behavior |
| JEL: | C92 D12 D18 D63 D64 D91 |
| Date: | 2025–02–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:25/03 |
| By: | Lécureur, Clairelou |
| Abstract: | Ce premier numéro des Enseignements du Lab apporte une lecture transversale des résultats de quatre projets collectifs liés à la transition écologique dans les quartiers populaires. Il se concentre sur la dimension sociologique de la crise climatique, et plus particulièrement sur les inégalités environnementales. Le lien entre enjeux environnementaux et inégalités n’est pas nouveau, mais il est de plus en plus étudié, notamment à travers le prisme des quartiers populaires. En effet, on observe une fragilité accrue des habitants des zones de concentration urbaine de populations à bas revenus aux conséquences du dérèglement climatique. Et ce, alors qu’ils y contribuent, par leur consommation, le moins. Après avoir présenté le contexte spécifique et le potentiel des quartiers populaires pour contribuer à la transition sociale et écologique, cette publication répond à la question suivante : quelles actions sont envisageables dans les quartiers populaires pour faire face aux inégalités environnementales et aller vers plus de justice environnementale ? |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4jqy7_v1 |
| By: | Alexandru Cojocaru; Nikandrova, Arina; Michael M. Lokshin |
| Abstract: | A widely held view in the media and among some researchers is that younger people are more worried about climate change and more willing to support the climate agenda than older generations. Such a “climate change age gap” is often explained by the longer time younger people expect to live under worsening climatic conditions. This paper develops a theoretical model that proposes an alternative explanation for the relationship between age and attitudes toward climate change. The empirical analysis is based on data from 38 countries in Europe, Central Asia, and the Middle East from the 2023 round of the Life in Transition Survey. The findings demonstrate a positive relationship between the respondents’ age and their concerns about climate change. Older people are more likely to object to higher taxes to finance public policies in general, including climate change policies, but even this result is sensitive to the framing of climate action questions. |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10918 |
| By: | Rajesh P. Narayanan; R. Kelley Pace |
| Abstract: | Emergent technologies such as solar power, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence (AI) often exhibit exponential or power function price declines and various ``S-curves'' of adoption. We show that under CES and VES utility, such price and adoption curves are functionally linked. When price declines follow Moore's, Wright's and AI scaling "Laws, '' the S-curve of adoption is Logistic or Log-Logistic whose slope depends on the interaction between an experience parameter and the elasticity of substitution between the incumbent and emergent good. These functional relations can serve as a building block for more complex models and guide empirical specifications of technology adoption. |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2502.00909 |
| By: | Hiau Looi Kee; Enze Xie |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the factors affecting governments’ mixed use of tariffs and non-tariff measures (NTMs) as trade and industrial policies. Results based on detailed bilateral-product-level ad valorem equivalent estimates for a wide range of countries show that restrictive NTMs coexist with lower tariffs, particularly for high-income importing countries, low-income exporting countries, country pairs with deep trade agreements, and products with consumption externalities. A terms-of-trade model with externalities rationalizes the results. The model is further used to shed light on the recent Sino-EU battery electric vehicle (BEV) disputes, whereby the EU imposed NTMs on top of the tariffs on China’s BEVs. |
| Date: | 2024–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10855 |
| By: | Benjamin Cornejo Costas; Nicola Cortinovis; Andrea Morrison; |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between migrant inventors, informal institutions and the development of green technologies in European regions. We argue that migrant inventors act as an unlocking mechanism that transfers external knowledge to host regions, and that informal institutions (i.e. social capital, migrant acceptance) mediate this effect. The work is based on an original dataset of migrant inventors covering 271 NUTS2 regions in the 27 EU countries, the UK, Switzerland, and Norway. The analysis shows that migrant inventors help their host regions to diversify into green technologies. The regions with the highest levels of both measures of social capital show a higher propensity of migrant inventors to act knowledge brokers. Conversely, regions with lower levels of migrant acceptance and social capital do not seem to contribute to this effect. |
| Keywords: | lock-in, international migration, green innovation, social capital, acceptance, regional diversification, EU regions |
| JEL: | F22 J61 O30 R12 Q55 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2503 |
| By: | Poltoratskaia, Viktoriia; Quintero, Maria Fernanda; Fazekas, Mihaly; Marc Tobias Schiffbauer |
| Abstract: | Although green public procurement has been established as a desirable policy goal across the globe, especially in the European Union, its scope and impacts remain severely understudied. This paper provides insights into the prevalence and structure of green public procurement in Bulgaria, which is a sustainability laggard within the European Union and hence a least likely champion of green public procurement. The paper also estimates the impacts of green procurement on traditional procurement and economic outcomes: competition, corruption risks, and overall productivity. Using novel data and more comprehensive methods than previous studies, the analysis finds that green public procurement amounted to about 10 to 20 percent of total public procurement spending in Bulgaria in 2011–19. Most descriptors and requirements of green public procurement are found in titles, technical requirements, and product descriptions. Green criteria in award criteria texts, which are mainly used for flagging green public procurement in the literature, have been marginal in comparison. Green public procurement is estimated to improve competition for government contracts among firms, for example by increasing the prevalence of market entrants by 3 to 7 percentage points. Green public procurement contracts are also less prone to corruption risks. For example, they are 0.6 to 1.5 percentage points less likely to receive a single bidder. Finally, green public procurement enhances the efficiency of resource allocation in the economy by helping to channel public resources to more productive firms, for example to those that have 14 percent higher labor productivity. This effect is at least in part explained by the positive interaction between green public procurement and the lower risk of corruption. The findings strengthen the case for pursuing green public procurement goals as they offer synergies with traditional public procurement goals. |
| Date: | 2024–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10987 |
| By: | Muhsin Ciftci; Ms. Christina Kolerus |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of climate-related news on asset prices in eight Latin American countries. We use both newspapers and official announcements to construct daily, country-specific indices via textual analysis, reflecting media coverage of transition risks, climate opportunities, regulatory actions, and physical risks. Leveraging an unbalanced daily panel data set of 628 firms from 2000 to 2023, we find a significant and robust climate risk premium in Latin America, which is higher for "browner" firms and has increased in more recent years. Focusing on major climate policies announced in official gazettes after the legislative process has been completed, we show that the publication of the laws is associated with a protracted decline in the relative stock prices of high-emission firms. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change; Climate Risk Premium; Financial Asset Pricing; Textual Analysis |
| Date: | 2025–02–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/037 |
| By: | Mark Freeman; Ben Groom; Frikk Nesje; Gernot Wagner |
| Abstract: | We assess how changes in the scientific consensus around equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), as captured by the IPCC’s Fifth (AR5) and Sixth (AR6) Assessment Reports, impact policymakers’ willingness to take climate action. Taking the IPCC’s reports at face value, the ECS estimates in AR6 would have lowered a policymaker’s willingness to act on climate relative to AR5 due to a narrower “likely” range. However, Bayesian updating may reverse this conclusion. An accuracy-motivated policymaker who was not convinced to take greater climate action by the evidence in AR5 may be more likely to strengthen their policy views by the evidence in AR6. |
| Keywords: | equilibrium climate sensitivity, Bayesian updating, climate policy |
| JEL: | Q54 H51 D83 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11668 |
| By: | Hoai Thu Tu Thi (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Gustave Eiffel); Christophe Rizet (AME-DEST - Dynamiques Economiques et Sociales des Transports - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Date: | 2023–06–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04671384 |