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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Martin Kittel; Alexander Roth; Wolf-Peter Schill |
| Abstract: | Coping with prolonged periods of low availability of wind and solar power, also referred to as "Dunkelflaute", emerges as a key challenge for realizing a decarbonized European energy system fully based on renewable energy sources. Here we investigate the role of long-duration electricity storage and geographical balancing in dealing with such variable renewable energy droughts. To this end, we combine renewable availability time series analysis and power sector modeling, using 36 historical weather years. We find that extreme drought events define long-duration storage operation and investment. The most extreme event in Europe occurred in the winter of 1996/97. Assuming policy-relevant interconnection, long-duration storage of 351 TWh or 7% of yearly electricity demand is required to deal with this event. As it affects many countries simultaneously, a storage capacity of 159 TWh or 3% of yearly electricity demand remains required even in the extreme case of unconstrained geographical balancing. Before and during Dunkelflaute events, we find complex interactions of long-duration storage with other flexibility options. Sensitivity analyses illustrate that firm zero-emission generation technologies would only moderately reduce long-duration storage needs. Thus, policymakers and system planners should prepare for a rapid expansion of long-duration storage capacity to safeguard the renewable energy transition in Europe. We further argue that using multiple weather years that include pronounced renewable energy droughts is required for weather-resilient energy system modeling. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.17683 |
| By: | Xuesong Wang; Sharaf K. Magableh; Oraib Dawaghreh; Caisheng Wang; Jiaxuan Gong; Zhongyang Zhao; Michael H. Liao |
| Abstract: | Virtual bidding plays an important role in two-settlement electric power markets, as it can reduce discrepancies between day-ahead and real-time markets. Renewable energy penetration increases volatility in electricity prices, making accurate forecasting critical for virtual bidders, reducing uncertainty and maximizing profits. This study presents a Transformer-based deep learning model to forecast the price spread between real-time and day-ahead electricity prices in the ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas) market. The proposed model leverages various time-series features, including load forecasts, solar and wind generation forecasts, and temporal attributes. The model is trained under realistic constraints and validated using a walk-forward approach by updating the model every week. Based on the price spread prediction results, several trading strategies are proposed and the most effective strategy for maximizing cumulative profit under realistic market conditions is identified through backtesting. The results show that the strategy of trading only at the peak hour with a precision score of over 50% produces nearly consistent profit over the test period. The proposed method underscores the importance of an accurate electricity price forecasting model and introduces a new method of evaluating the price forecast model from a virtual bidder's perspective, providing valuable insights for future research. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.00062 |
| By: | Bastianin, Andrea; Li, Xiao; Shamsudin, Luqman |
| Abstract: | The transition to a cleaner energy mix, essential for achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, will significantly increase demand for metals critical to renewable energy technologies. Energy Transition Metals (ETMs), including copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earth elements, are indispensable for renewable energy generation and the electrification of global economies. However, their markets are characterized by high price volatility due to supply concentration, low substitutability, and limited price elasticity. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the price volatility of ETMs, a subset of Critical Raw Materials (CRMs). Using a combination of exploratory data analysis, data reduction, and visualization methods, we identify key features for accurate point and density forecasts. We evaluate various volatility models, including Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Stochastic Volatility (SV) models, to determine their forecasting performance. Our findings reveal significant heterogeneity in ETM volatility patterns, which challenge standard groupings by data providers and geological classifications. The results contribute to the literature on CRM economics and commodity volatility, offering novel insights into the complex dynamics of ETM markets and the modeling of their returns and volatilities. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2025–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:349169 |
| By: | Tarach, Moritz |
| Abstract: | This dissertation consists of three studies, each examining a different topic in the field of energy and environmental economics. The topics comprise: (i) estimating potentials for greenhouse gas emission reductions of economic sectors, (ii) forecasting the oil production of a region based on historical data from discoveries, and (iii) examining the determinants of electricity price fluctuations. Each of the studies uses a particular statistical method or mathematical model that is specifically adapted to the research question and the data set under investigation. The first study is a stochastic nonparametric efficiency analysis in which greenhouse gas emissions are included as bad outputs. For seven economic sectors and sixteen European countries, this study estimates greenhouse gas emission reduction potentials, i.e., the quantity of emissions that could potentially be reduced by improvements in productive efficiency. The standard DEA method is extended by a specific bootstrapping procedure used to implement a bias correction and to compute confidence intervals. The magnitudes of the emission reduction potentials are compared with the emission reduction targets for 2030 from the European Commission. The results show that improvements in productive efficiency are a quantitatively important element, potentially allowing for a substantial reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union. The second study presents a stochastic model for forecasting for an oil-producing region the amount of undiscovered oil, the future path of oil discovery and that of oil production. The model combines three submodels: (i) an empirically-founded production model at the level of individual oil fields, (ii) a successive sampling discovery model after Kaufman et al. (1975) for forecasting field sizes, and (iii) a stochastic birth process model for forecasting discovery dates. The model is estimated and evaluated for the oil-producing regions of Norway and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (the latter further split into shallow- and deep-water parts). The results show that the predictions for oil discovery are somewhat too low compared to the actuals for Norway and for the shallow-water Gulf of Mexico, while for the deep-water Gulf of Mexico the predictions are too high. This is similarly reflected in the predictions for oil production. The third study is a multivariate wavelet analysis of the German wholesale electricity market, which examines the determinants of electricity price fluctuations using daily time series. The possible determinants are coal prices, gas prices, and the residual load (i.e., electricity consumption minus wind and solar generation). The multivariate wavelet method allows for a detailed examination of the relations between the time series in time-frequency space, while also taking into account the interdependencies among the different time series. The results show that the residual load is the key short-run determinant of electricity prices, while coal and gas prices are the key long-run determinants. Also, this study finds that the co-movement relation among the energy prices is time-varying, which is consistent with the findings of other studies (e.g., Sousa et al. (2014); Aguiar-Conraria et al. (2018)). |
| Date: | 2025–01–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:152601 |
| By: | Enriquez-Contreras, Luis Fernando; Barth, Matthew; Ula, Sadrul |
| Abstract: | As a part of an innovative Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), this paper investigates the effectiveness of transportation-based microgrid configurations in reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and electricity costs. A case study at the University of California, Riverside (UCR) utilizes high-resolution California Independent System Operator (CAISO) CO2 emission data to assess the environmental impact of each microgrid configuration. It also compares electricity costs to determine potential consumer savings. The results demonstrate that a load-following transportation microgrid strategy can significantly reduce CO2 emissions (67%–84%) and achieve annual cost savings of approximately $24, 000, even when accounting for the additional demand from daily electric vehicle (EV) charging at the building. However, battery sizing is crucial for cost-effectiveness, as load-following exhibits diminishing returns. Doubling battery capacity may yield negligible reductions in electricity costs and CO2 emissions after exceeding certain threshold. This emphasizes the importance of optimizing battery capacity to achieve a balance between cost and environmental impact. The study further reveals that Level 2 chargers in a commercial building generally have minimal impact on building demand and energy charges. Conversely, a single Level 3 DC fast charger has a more significant impact, requiring increased solar and battery storage capacity for further cost reduction. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Infrastructure for charging, communication and controls, energy storage and control systems, electric vehicles |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8br5m587 |
| By: | Ilya Stepanov; Diego A Gutierrez; Mr. Camilo E Tovar Mora |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the potential impact of border carbon adjustments on Trinidad and Tobago’s exports. Despite its marginal contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, the country’s high carbon intensity exposes the economy to global low-carbon transition risks. The paper aims to raise awareness and encourage discussions on critical actions needed to maintain export competitiveness, enhance diversification, support balance of payments stability, and finance a green transition. The analysis recommends building on existing policies to integrate transition risks into development strategies, promote carbon intensity reduction, accumulate relevant data, and explore innovative emissions reduction approaches, including carbon pricing. |
| Keywords: | carbon pricing; border carbon adjustment; Trinidad and Tobago; EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM); decarbonization; climate policy |
| Date: | 2025–01–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2025/028 |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; ASM Shamim Alam Shibly |
| Abstract: | Bangladesh aims to gradually reduce its dependence on fossil fuels in all kinds of economic activities as part of its global and national commitments. Since the power sector is one of the most important carbon-emitters given its over-dependence on fossil-fuels as fuel-mix, it is important to strategise, plan and thereby implement gradual reduction of the share of fossil-fuel in power generation. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy, Power Generation, Fossil Fuel Reduction, Clean Energy, Energy Transition, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:report:56 |
| By: | Alin Halimatussadiah; Milda Irhamni; Teuku Riefky; Muhammad Nur Ghiffari; Fachry Abdul Razak Afifi (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia has pledged an ambitious target for decarbonizing its energy sectors. This study aims to examine the potential impact of transitioning the power and automotive sectors on employment. Utilizing energy modeling results for three different decarbonization scenarios, this study quantitatively projects the direct, indirect, and induced impacts of transitioning the power sector on employment for the period of 2020-2050. The analysis of the automotive sectors was taken using qualitative method to gather insight into the potential net job creation resulting from transitioning to Electric Vehicle (EV) from Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV). The findings suggest that decarbonizing the electricity sector to meet the Paris Agreement target would create 5.86 million direct jobs-year, 2.67 million higher than the business-as-usual scenario. The job creation primarily comes from solar photovoltaics (PV) projects, despite potential job losses from retiring coal plants. Most of these direct jobs are associated with the construction and installation phases of power plants. Overall, the energy transition could result in net job creation (direct, indirect, and induced impacts) ranging from 7.07 million to 12.17 million jobsyears by 2050. In contrast to the positive employment impact Contrasting to the results in the power sector, this study identified two main risks associated with the transition from ICEV to EV manufacturing: lower demand for workers for ICEV components manufacturing and maintenance and higher demand for workers capable of handling more automation-based manufacturing technology, potentially leading to net job losses. This evidence suggests that policymakers should enhance human capital through training and certification, as well as fostering collaboration among stakeholders to address labor market changes during the energy transition and fully capture its benefits. |
| Keywords: | net-zero emissions — energy transition — power sector — automotive sector — employment — Indonesia |
| JEL: | E24 J21 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202481 |
| By: | Alin Halimatussadiah; Muhammad Adriansyah; Fachry Abdul Razak Afifi; Muhammad Yudha Pratama; Teuku Riefky; Jiehong Lou (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | One of the central commitments Indonesia is pursuing is integrating a green economy into its economic development framework. This aligns seamlessly with the nation’s dedication to fostering sustainable and environmentally friendly development practices. This commitment is underscored by the significant reduction in greenhouse gas emission intensity, targeted to reach 93.5% below 2010 levels by 2045. This goal establishes a clear pathway toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2060. This policy paper provides an in-depth analysis of the strategies and policies outlined by comprehensively maps both current and prospective strategies, policies, and programs aimed at achieving Indonesia’s development target that aligned with a green economic approach. They are NDC, LTS-LCCR 2050, LCDI, Roadmap NZE Energy. While all three planning documents elaborate long-term plans for Indonesia’s journey toward reducing its carbon footprint, they encompass divergent approaches, targets, and commitment periods, leading to varied strategies and programs. The differences among these documents could potentially send mixed signals, affecting planning and budgeting, especially crucial up to the end of the Paris Agreement period in 2030, after which the discrepancies can be re-evaluated. To ensure cohesive and effective climate action, it is imperative for the Indonesian government to unify its approach by creating a dynamic, iterative planning document. This document should be continuously updated to ensure the convergence of all planning efforts, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of Indonesia’s climate actions. |
| Keywords: | green economy — net-zero emission — climate action — Indonesia — climate policies |
| JEL: | Q50 Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpaper:202480 |
| By: | Halkos, George; Bampatsou, Christina; Aslanidis, Panagiotis-Stavros |
| Abstract: | This study examines the eco-efficiency performance of green energy transitions in 45 high-emission countries (1995–2022), focusing on convergence in policymaking. Using hybrid window data envelopment analysis (WDEA) models, eco-efficiency was evaluated for non-renewable energy (NRES), renewable energy (RES), and mixed sources. Inputs included capital, labor, and electricity generation; outputs were GDP (desirable) and CO2 and CH4 emissions (undesirable). Efficiency averaged 76.04% (RES), 74.25% (NRES), and 73.61% (mixed). Conditional convergence analysis revealed countries with similar conditions converge to unique steady states, highlighting the need for harmonized energy standards, therefore investments in green technologies can reduce emissions and electricity generation costs. |
| Keywords: | hybrid window DEA; club convergence; imergeclub; logtreg; Log t regression test; energy sectors. |
| JEL: | O13 Q42 Q48 Q50 Q54 |
| Date: | 2025–01–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:123341 |
| By: | Simshauser, P. |
| Abstract: | Decarbonising Australia's power system requires high market shares of variable renewable energy. An important policy initiative to achieve this is the establishment of Renewable Energy Zones (REZs). As renewable market share increases, spilled energy within REZs is predictable. Spilled energy occurs due to high peak-to-average output ratios of intermittent renewables (being ~3:1), largely inelastic aggregate final electricity demand, and the economic limits of REZ network transfer capacity. In an open access, multi-zonal market setup, an intuitive response by policymakers may be to undertake connection reform (i.e. priority access) and underwrite storage assets to alleviate the worst effects of spilled energy. Prima facie, spilled energy and lines congestion may be reduced, and wind and solar capacity increased, through the deployment of battery storage. However, as model results in this article reveal, priority access makes multi-zonal markets more sensitive to spilled energy, and competitive batteries within a REZ aggravates congestion. Further, early entrant batteries may oversize their MW capacity and crowd-out renewables. All these cases harm welfare within a REZ. Optimally sized coordinated 'portfolio' batteries alleviate congestion because they don't compete for scarce REZ transfer capacity. Rival batteries should be located outside REZs. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy Zones, Renewables, Spilled Energy, Marginal Curtailment, Battery Storage |
| JEL: | D52 D53 G12 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2475 |
| By: | Amrita Goldar (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Md Sarwar Ali; Malay Kotal; Poulomi Bhattacharya; Ismail Haque |
| Abstract: | This study reviews policy initiatives from top steel-producing G20 countries, focusing on supply, demand, and export promotion, to identify best practices for decarbonizing India's steel sector. It prioritizes policy options based on an Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) exercise conducted with stakeholders from industry, government, academia, and civil society. The research makes a twofold contribution to the current body of knowledge. Firstly, it identifies potential policy choices that the Indian steel industry can implement to reduce carbon emissions promptly. Secondly, it conducts a policy-prioritization exercise involving various stakeholders to unite diverse perspectives on supply, demand, and export promotion strategies. This exercise helps determine the most optimal transition pathway for the sector. Some of the policy levers that were deemed to be crucial for decarbonizing the Indian steel sector are technological innovation/upgradation, improvement in energy efficiency, and green procurement and labelling. Additionally, access to finance is critical to facilitate the adoption of low-carbon technologies for the production of low-carbon or green steel. |
| Keywords: | Low carbon steel, Climate policy, Industrial decarbonization, icrier |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:ppaper:33 |
| By: | Fahmida Khatun; Estiaque Bari |
| Abstract: | In Bangladesh, the Readymade Garment (RMG) industry stands as the backbone of the nation’s economy, driving over 80 per cent of its foreign export revenue. However, the recent global energy crisis, spurred by the Ukraine War, has cast a shadow over this vital sector. The Government of Bangladesh’s response to the crisis, marked by escalating electricity tariffs, has intensified production costs for industries, imperiling their sustainability. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy, Energy Transition, Readymade Garment (RMG), RMG Industry, Energy crisis, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:report:54 |
| By: | Ibrahem Shatnawi; Jeyhun I. Mikayilov |
| Abstract: | The adoption of more stringent fuel economy standards represents a pivotal pathway toward achieving net zero emissions in the transportation sector. By steadily increasing the fuel efficiency of vehicles, this approach drives a gradual but consistent decline in emissions. When coupled with the simultaneous integration of electric and alternative fuel vehicles into the market, the goal of net zero emissions becomes increasingly feasible. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.02167 |
| By: | Davi-Arderius, D.; Jamasb, T. |
| Abstract: | With the increasing participation of renewable sources, prices of energy commodity in the day-ahead markets have been decreasing and in increasing number of hours to zero or even negative prices. However, in hours with prices and charges equal or below zero, end-users may still pay significant prices for the 'free' electricity, which presents a paradox. This paper analyses the zero-negative price paradox in a highly decarbonized electricity market. We use Seasonal ARIMA methods with hourly data from the Spanish power system (2021-2024). We find that non-energy system costs increase when day-ahead prices decrease. Thus, customers do not receive efficient price signals to adjust their consumption when more renewables are available. In other words, some benefits of lower prices seem to be traded-off with this "price paradox". Similar results can be anticipated in other countries with increasing share of renewables. Future studies of welfare impact of electricity prices should consider how to minimize these increasing non-energy costs. |
| Keywords: | Energy-Only Market, Day-Ahead Electricity Markets, Negative Prices, Renewables, Decarbonization, Ancillary Services |
| JEL: | D47 L10 L22 L50 L94 |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2451 |
| By: | Xing, H.; Scott; John |
| Abstract: | Decarbonised future power systems will rely on variable renewable energy (VRE). The variability and intermittence of VRE calls for cost-efficient flexibility providers, such as thermal generators, different energy storage technologies, interconnectors, and excess generation from VRE. This research decomposes the total system cost into cost of flexibility and energy, and constructs an agent-based structure for energy storage operators to price stored energy and a mechanism for all power sources to compete with each other. In the GB power system with the UK's projected VRE and energy storage capacity, the total system cost will be dominated by the cost of providing energy flexibility. Energy storage is more efficient both at reducing total system cost and carbon intensity than additional VRE, which can only reduce carbon intensity, and interconnectors, which can only reduce total system cost by exporting excess generation from VRE. Thermal generators will pay a transfer cost because of their frequent start-up and will still be cost-efficient for seasonal storage. Excess generation from additional VRE reduces carbon intensity but raises the total system cost. To reach the minimum carbon intensity and total system cost, we recommend that the GB power system introduce an additional 25 GW of storage capacity for its projected VRE capacity and introduce mechanical storage technologies which are cost-efficient for managing short-term variability as soon as possible. |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2474 |
| By: | Mehling, M. A.; Dolphin, G.; Ritz, R. A. |
| Abstract: | Adopted in 2023, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a significant component of the European Union's ambitious decarbonization strategy under the European Green Deal. This working paper questions the CBAM's effectiveness in achieving its stated objective, prevention of carbon leakage, but proceeds to document its impactful role in accelerating the global diffusion of carbon pricing. Empirical evidence for carbon leakage remains sparse, and implementation challenges would limit the capacity of the CBAM to counteract leakage even where it occurs. Nonetheless, the CBAM has already demonstrated a powerful spillover effect by incentivizing the acceleration of carbon pricing roadmaps across EU trading partners, suggesting that trade-related climate measures can effectively encourage global climate action. As the EU navigates the complexities of operationalizing the CBAM, it must balance several tradeoffs to maintain this important spillover effect. If successful, the CBAM could catalyze a virtuous cycle of carbon pricing adoption, reinforcing its pivotal role in the EU's toolbox to manage the environment-trade nexus. |
| Keywords: | CBAM, Carbon Pricing, Carbon Leakage, Environment-Trade Nexus, European Union |
| JEL: | F42 H23 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2459 |
| By: | Joseph Nyangon; Ruth Akintunde |
| Abstract: | Accurate and reliable electricity price forecasting has significant practical implications for grid management, renewable energy integration, power system planning, and price volatility management. This study focuses on enhancing electricity price forecasting in California's grid, addressing challenges from complex generation data and heteroskedasticity. Utilizing principal component analysis (PCA), we analyze CAISO's hourly electricity prices and demand from 2016-2021 to improve day-ahead forecasting accuracy. Initially, we apply traditional outlier analysis with the interquartile range method, followed by robust PCA (RPCA) for more effective outlier elimination. This approach improves data symmetry and reduces skewness. We then construct multiple linear regression models using both raw and PCA-transformed features. The model with transformed features, refined through traditional and SAS Sparse Matrix outlier removal methods, shows superior forecasting performance. The SAS Sparse Matrix method, in particular, significantly enhances model accuracy. Our findings demonstrate that PCA-based methods are key in advancing electricity price forecasting, supporting renewable integration and grid management in day-ahead markets. Keywords: Electricity price forecasting, principal component analysis (PCA), power system planning, heteroskedasticity, renewable energy integration. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.07787 |
| By: | Vafi, Kourosh; Hopkins, Francesca M. |
| Abstract: | Natural gas provides an alternative to petroleum-based fuels as an energy source that is being more widely adopted across multiple sectors in California. The viability of natural gas depends on its total life cycle emissions, specifically of those of methane. This paper addresses the possibility of and reason for fugitive emissions of methane from the transportation sector by surveying and quantifying methane plumes from compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquified natural gas (LNG) storage tanks at vehicle fueling facilities in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area. This project used methane plume images provided by airborne imaging spectroscopy, collected by NASA’s AVIRIS-NG mission, to identify large methane point sources originating from CNG and LNG infrastructure. The periodic methane plume observations were converted into emission rates to provide an estimate for potential methane emissions from NG storage facilities across California. For the population of facilities that were analyzed, four had natural gas storage tanks with emission rates that are higher than the maximum rate specified by the tank manufacturers. The significant disparity between the expected emission rate and the actual emission rate can be explained by tank malfunction, as the number of observed plume events are far higher than what would be expected for a fully operational tank. If the tank malfunction rates found in the group that was analyzed were applied to the entire population of California CNG and LNG facilities, total emissions may be up to 1300 kg CH4 per hour, suggesting a need for leak monitoring and repair to prevent excessive methane emissions from this sector. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Natural gas, methane emissions, compressed natural gas (CNG), liquified natural gas (LNG), greenhouse gas emissions |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1zq2p31z |
| By: | Simshauser, P.; Gilmore, J. |
| Abstract: | The long run task of Australian power system planners is to identify the structural adjustment pathway associated with retiring the National Electricity Market's (NEM) coal fleet. System planning models seek to do this at minimum cost subject to a reliability constraint. This involves the deployment of low-cost intermittent wind and solar resources with a mix of dispatchable, flexible 'firming' assets. Coal's energy-producing role is thus replaced by renewables, and firming duties by short duration batteries, intermediate duration pumped hydro and the last line of defence – gas turbines. As it turns out, the mix of firming assets is crucial. In this article, we examine 12 (anonymised) electricity market model forecasts in the post-coal era and find all have a surprisingly heavy reliance on gas turbines during critical event winter days. Using a dynamic partial equilibrium model of the east Australian gas market, we test the severity of what appear to be demand shocks from an emergent gas turbine fleet. The episodic demand shocks present as intractable, particularly if batteries and pumped hydro plant are 'underweight' within the aggregate generating portfolio. Adequate time is available for policymakers to respond in an orderly manner. |
| Keywords: | Gas Markets, Gas Turbines, Renewables, Firming Capacity |
| JEL: | D52 D53 G12 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2452 |
| By: | YOO Sunbin; KUMAGAI Junya; MATSUSHIMA Hiroshi; Madhu KHANNA; MANAGI Shunsuke |
| Abstract: | Transportation is a major contributor to global carbon emissions due to its reliance on fossil fuels, with railways often cited as a promising solution for emission reduction. However, empirical evidence of railways’ effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions has been limited. Our study reveals that the expansion of Japan’s railway net- work over the past 30 years has led to a significant reduction in carbon emissions, ranging from 97.44 to 110.73 million metric tons. This translates to an annual reduction of up to 1.697% of Japan’s transportation sector emissions in 2019, a finding that demonstrates the broader environmental implications of systemic railway development. In contrast, station openings have led to a slight overall increase in emissions, contributing an additional 2.5 million metric tons over the same period. These findings emphasize the greater impact of comprehensive network expansions in reducing carbon emissions compared to localized station openings and underscore the importance of strategic railway expansion as a key measure for mitigating carbon emissions and advancing sustainable urban development. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:25006 |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Helen Mashiyat Preoty; Mashfiq Ahasan Hridoy |
| Abstract: | This Special Report outlines a comprehensive set of recommendations for reforming Bangladesh’s power and energy sector under the new interim government, which began its term in August 2024. It emphasises the need for significant reforms in policies, laws, and government institutions to address inefficiencies, lack of transparency, and financial challenges in the sector. |
| Keywords: | Power and Energy, Renewable Energy, Power Generation, Energy Policy Reforms, Clean Energy, Energy Transition, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:report:57 |
| By: | Syahrituah Siregar |
| Abstract: | Climate change is a global challenge caused by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel use. Indonesia, as a developing country, faces major challenges in implementing carbon tax policies to reduce emissions, especially related to their regressive impacts on low-income households. Currently, there is little in-depth research on how carbon tax policies impact household income distribution in Indonesia. This study uses a quantitative approach with the Input- Output model to analyze the impact of carbon tax on household income based on 10 income groups, both in urban and rural areas. The results show that carbon tax policies have a regressive impact, where low-income households bear a proportionally greater burden. Household income in Class - 10 decreased by IDR 19, 144.85 million in urban areas and IDR 8, 819.13 million in rural areas, while households in Class - 1 decreased by IDR 954.23 million. Therefore, mitigation policies such as cross subsidies are needed to reduce the impact on vulnerable groups. These findings are important for policy makers in formulating fair and effective fiscal policies, as well as ensuring social justice in the context of sustainable development. This study has limitations in the scope of analysis of long-term energy consumption behavior and certain sectors, so further research is needed to deepen these aspects. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.08177 |
| By: | Becka Brolinson (Federal Housing Finance Agency); William M. Doerner (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Arne Johan Pollestad (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Michael J. Seiler (Federal Housing Finance Agency) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of the 2021–2022 European energy crisis, a significant macro-financial shock, on homebuyer willingness-to-pay for energy-efficient homes in Norway. Leveraging the country’s electricity market---characterized by five distinct regions with varying exposure to European power prices---as a quasi-experiment, we analyze how energy price shocks influence housing market dynamics. Applying a triple differences regression framework to real estate transactions, we find that home prices in regions affected by the shock fell significantly relative to unaffected regions, with single-family dwellings outside major cities experiencing the largest declines. While energy-efficient homes appeared less vulnerable, this effect was only marginally significant. Moreover, the negative price effects persisted despite the introduction of electricity price subsidies. These findings highlight the complex relationship between energy costs, housing market valuations, and buyer preferences, offering generalizable insights into the resilience of housing markets to macro-financial shocks and the role of policy interventions in mitigating their effects. |
| Keywords: | energy price shock, housing market, energy efficiency, energy performance certificate, government subsidy, macro-financial shocks |
| JEL: | D12 G14 H23 L94 P18 Q4 R2 R3 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hfa:wpaper:24-10 |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Mashfiq Ahasan Hridoy |
| Abstract: | In the field of renewable energy development, there is a large gap between Bangladesh and China. In 2022, China was far ahead in renewable energy utilisation, while Bangladesh was ranked 187th out of 196 countries. For developing countries such as Bangladesh, China’s experience in renewable energy is a lesson to be learned. In the past 40 years, China has made an amazing comeback from being a laggard in renewable energy to becoming a global champion. As of June 2023, China’s installed non-fossil energy generation capacity reached 51.5 per cent of its total installed capacity. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy, Chinese Overseas Investment, Bangladesh and China |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:48 |
| By: | Marco Guerzoni (DEMS, Università di Milano-Bicocca, Milano, Italy – BETA, University of Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France); Luigi Riso (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy); Maria Grazia Zoia (Dipartimento di Politica Economica, DISCE, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Milano, Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of extreme weather events on electricity price volatility in Italy, using a novel combination of advanced econometric techniques and a robust variable selection process. A key feature of the study is the application of the Best Path Algorithm (BPA) for variable selection, which identifies the most relevant predictors, with extreme weather events emerging as the primary drivers of price volatility. These selected variables are incorporated into a GARCH-MIDAS model, allowing for the integration of high-frequency electricity price data with low-frequency climate data to capture both short- and long-term volatility components. Additionally, the study incorporates external shocks, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, as exogenous variables to account for their effects on the energy market. The results highlight the significant predictive power of extreme weather events and external factors on returns of electricity prices. This approach provides policymakers and energy stakeholders with improved forecasting tools, emphasizing the need for resilience in energy market planning. Future research may extend this methodology to other regions and incorporate additional variables to enhance predictive accuracy. |
| Keywords: | Weather, Climate change, Electricity prices, GARCH-MIDAS |
| JEL: | Q41 Q54 C1 C53 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctc:serie5:dipe0043 |
| By: | Bracht, Felix; Verhoeven, Dennis |
| Abstract: | If air pollution harms innovation — and therefore future productivity — existing assessments of its economic cost are incomplete. We estimate the effect of fine particulate matter concentration on inventive output in 977 European regions. Exploiting thermal inversions and weather-induced ventilation of pollutants for identification, we find that a decrease in air pollution equivalent to the average yearly drop in Europe leads to 1.2% more patented inventions in a given region. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that accounting for the effect on innovation increases the economic cost of air pollution as assessed in prior work by about three quarters. |
| Keywords: | air pollution; air quality; innovation; productivity |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2025–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126875 |
| By: | Weed, Caleb C.; Rodgers, Michael O. |
| Abstract: | This report outlines the technical development and application of the Total Cost of Ownership Spreadsheet Tool (TCOST), a Microsoft Excel-based calculator that simplifies and integrates the main functions, data, and outputs of pre-existing models (MOVES-Matrix and the GREET Model) and other external sources of economic data. The tool accommodates twenty-one user-input variables to produce comparative total cost of ownership figures for diesel and battery-electric trucks within any use case, broken down by cost type (capital, operation, and maintenance), both as a gross number and on a per-mile basis. The tool also provides a series of visualizations comparing cost breakdowns, breakeven points, and expected tailpipe and fuel-cycle emissions for both technologies. A hypothetical regional container drayage use-case example was developed using quantitative and qualitative data, to which TCOST was applied to demonstrate the application of the tool and its value to fleet managers and policymakers in its ability to model the cost effects of minor parameter adjustments or the multiplicative effects of simultaneous parameter adjustments quickly and easily. TCOST may be used to help inform the decision-making process for fleet vehicle acquisition and planning, helping decision makers to visualize a variety of future scenarios and map those scenarios onto their fleet operations to assess risks and make informed choices about the future technological makeup of their fleets. TCOST will help policymakers quickly model the cost impacts of potential policy levers from a business perspective. View the 2021 NCST Project Webpage and the 2023 NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric Vehicles, Trucks, Freight, Electrification, Energy, Emissions, CO2 |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3vs604k1 |
| By: | Lipman, Timothy; Penev, Misho; Holden, Jacob |
| Abstract: | The goal of the “Advanced Network Analysis of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Automated Vehicles for Goods Delivery” (ATLAS) project is to examine the costs and energy system impacts of using hydrogen (H2) fuel cell electric vehicles (FCVs) for medium-duty goods delivery applications, with human drivers and some degree of automated operation in the future. Direct goods delivery to residences and commercial operations is an expanding transportation element that has been growing at approximately 9% per year in recent years, with an estimated $343 billion global industry value in 2020. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2024–06–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1902181w |
| By: | Dai, C.; Pollitt, M. G. |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses China's move from local carbon markets (CL-ETS) to a national carbon market (CN-ETS). We explore the challenge of expanding the CN-ETS to include sectors already covered in some of the CL-ETSs. We do this in three ways. First, through a systematic review of relevant policy documents and market data, the study analyzes the background and development process of the CN-ETS. Second, in-depth interviews with 22 industry experts are conducted to gather insights from various stakeholders regarding industry expansion and data quality issues, forming a multidimensional understanding of the market's status. Finally, quantitative analysis methods are used to statistically analyze the collected data and explore the impact of different factors on the development of the CN-ETS. We find that the CN-ETS currently faces challenges in industry expansion, such as insufficient data quality and complex accounting, which directly affect the market's effective operation. Experts differ in their views on the possible speed of expansion. However, we identify 2034 as a crucial date for the achievement of a comprehensive strengthening of the CN-ETS, in the light of the implementation of the European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). |
| Keywords: | Emission Trading System (ETS), Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), China's national Emissions Trading System (CN-ETS), China's local Emissions Trading System (CL-ETS) |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–10–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2460 |
| By: | Abada, I.; Ehrenmann, A.; Smeers, Y. |
| Abstract: | The fundamental principle of marginal pricing in electricity markets has been strongly challenged following the recent European energy crisis. One of the main criticisms is the inability of current markets to drive investments, as spot prices provide only short term information about supply, demand, and costs. This paper revisits the seminal work of Boiteux 1960 in the context of the recent energy crisis to discuss the fundamental assumption of adapted capacity, which underpins the equality between long term and short term marginal costs in the theory of marginal pricing. We argue that capacity is no longer adapted to current economic conditions in Europe. We then leverage techniques of mathematical programming to generalize the results of Boiteux 1960 and propose a market clearing mechanism that preserves the efficiency of current short term marginal pricing to induce optimal plants operations while also providing a long term investment signal when capacities are not necessarily adapted. Through an analysis of captured margins, our proposal, which differs only marginally from the current market clearing, identifies plants that should remain in the current mix and those that are no longer economical. We also discuss possible extensions of our proposal to accommodate capacity markets and price caps. Finally, we implement our models with the French power mix and demonstrate their advantages over the current market clearing mechanism using a realistic case study. |
| Keywords: | Marginal Pricing, Power Markets, Duality, Mathematical Programming |
| JEL: | C61 D40 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2453 |
| By: | Lu, Hongyu; Liu, Haobing; Guin, Angshuman; Rodgers, Michael O; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | This report summarizes the impact on corridor-level energy use and emissions associated with the 2018 opening of the I-75 Northwest Corridor (NWC) and I-85 Express Lanes in Atlanta, GA. The research team tracked changes in vehicle throughput on the managed lane corridors (extracted from GDOT’s Georgia NaviGAtor machine vision system after comprehensive QA/QC) and performed a difference-in-difference analysis to exclude regional changes, pairing test sites vs. control sites not influenced by the openings. The results show a large increase in overall peak-period vehicle throughput on the NWC, especially on I-575, due to the congestion decrease (20 mph speed increases at some locations). The increase in corridor-level energy use and emissions was smaller than vehicle throughput, but still significant. Predicted downwind maximum CO concentrations only increased from 1.81 ppm to 1.93 ppm (which remains extremely low). The increase in morning peak activity on the corridor likely resulted from diversion of some traffic into the peak from the shoulder periods, diversion of some traffic from other nearby freeway corridors, and diversion of local road traffic into the corridor. Unfortunately, without overall control volume totals and/or pre-and-post travel behavior surveys for the alternative commute routes, it is not possible to quantify the likely reductions in traffic flow and emissions that occurred along the other corridors that likely resulted from morning commute shifts. Hence, the team cannot draw reliable conclusions related to net regional or sub-regional impacts associated with the new managed lane corridors. The impact observed on the I-85 corridor was much smaller than on the NWC, especially at Indian Trail/Lilburn Road (far from the Express Lane Extension). After the Express Lanes opened, energy use and emission rates at Old Peachtree Road increased slightly (as uncongested vehicle speeds increased), but this increase may be short-lived as traffic on the corridor changes over time. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Managed lane, high-occupancy lane, high-occupancy toll lane, emissions modeling, energy use modeling |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt93j728pn |
| By: | Ryan Hanson; Ana María Herrera |
| Abstract: | Using data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) and the Census of Manufacturing (CMF), we construct quarterly measures of job creation and destruction by 3-digit NAICS industries spanning from 1980Q3-2016Q4. These long series allow us to address three questions regarding the effect of oil news shocks. What is the average effect of oil news shocks on sectoral labor reallocation? What characteristics explain the observed heterogeneity in the average responses across industries? Has the response of US manufacturing changed over time? We find evidence that oil news shocks exert only a moderate effect on total manufacturing net employment growth but lead to a significant increase in job reallocation. However, we find a high degree of heterogeneity in responses across industries. We then show that the cross-industry variation in the sensitivity of net employment growth and excess job reallocation to oil news shocks is related to differences in energy costs, the rate of energy to capital expenditures, and the share of mature firms in the industry. Finally, we illustrate how the dynamic response of sectoral job creation and destruction to oil news shocks has declined since the mid-2000s. |
| Keywords: | job flows, oil news shocks, high frequency identification, OPEC announcements |
| JEL: | E24 E32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-06 |
| By: | Marzouk, Osama Ahmed |
| Abstract: | We collected data about 13 urban air mobility (UAM) electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft from 12 UAM companies in the world. While none of these models has yet reached a large-scale commercial operation (particularly as air taxis), some of them progressed well in the certification process and may have their UAM models widely operated within a few years. This article focuses on the variability in the configurations of these UAM eVTOL aircraft for aerial e-mobility; such as single-fixed-wing, tandem-tilt-wing, canard wing, fixed-rotor fixed-wing, full tilt-rotor, partial tilt-rotor, V-shaped tail, tailless, twin tail, conventional tail assembly, distributed propulsion, multicopter, rear forward thrust propeller, ducted fans, and a hybrid airplane-helicopter design. The 13 UAM eVTOL aircraft covered here are: (1) EH216-S (by EHang), (2) VoloCity (by Volocopter), (3) Lilium Jet (by Lilium), (4) VoloRegion (by Volocopter), (5) CityAirbus NextGen (by Airbus), (6) Passenger Air Vehicle - PAV (by Boeing), (7) S-A2 (by Hyundai), (8) Joby (by Joby Aviation), (9) VX4 (by Vertical Aerospace Group), (10) Midnight (by Archer Aviation), (11) Eve (by Eve Air Mobility), (12) Jaunt (by Jaunt Air Mobility), and (13) Generation 6 (by Wisk Aero). Out of these 13 UAM eVTOL aircraft models for aerial e-mobility and/or air taxis, we found that 11 models utilize a wing configuration, while only two use a wingless multirotor concept (as in hobbyist drones). A fixed-wing design is associated with a faster travel speed, at the expense of added restrictions on maneuvering and low-speed travel (or hovering). Six models are intended to have an onboard human pilot, while the remaining seven models are designed to be pilotless. One model demonstrated the ability to use hydrogen as a clean source of energy through a fuel cell system. |
| Date: | 2025–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:m5sd9 |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Mashfiq Ahasan Hridoy |
| Abstract: | The paper ‘Attracting Overseas Investment in the Renewable Energy Sector of Bangladesh: Case of Chinese Investment’ provides a comprehensive analysis on the strategic approaches for Bangladesh to attract Chinese investment in its burgeoning renewable energy sector. It delves into the current renewable energy landscape, identifying key challenges that impede Chinese investment, including policy, regulatory, infrastructural, and financial barriers. Drawing on China’s vast experience and success in renewable energy development, the report outlines actionable policy recommendations for Bangladesh. These recommendations are designed to address the identified challenges, facilitating a conducive environment for Chinese investments. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy Sector, Chinese Investment, financial barriers, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:report:53 |
| By: | Yue Sun (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244) |
| Abstract: | Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States, but there are large disparities in CVD death rates across the country. Air pollution also plays an important role in shaping geographic disparities in CVD mortality, as air pollutants can become absorbed in human circulation systems, and cause inflammation, damage nervous systems, and trigger poor CVD outcomes. This brief reports the results of a study that used data on air pollution and from death certificates to estimate the association between fine particulate matter and cardiovascular disease mortality rates in the U.S. in 2016-2018. Results show that cutting air pollution to match the World Health Organization’s proposed standards could have prevented over 300, 000 CVD deaths in the U.S. over this period. |
| Keywords: | Pollution, Cardiovascular Disease |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:max:cprpbr:8 |
| By: | Bryan Bollinger; Kenneth Gillingham; A. Justin Kirkpatrick |
| Abstract: | Individuals trade present for future consumption across a range of economic behaviors, and this tradeoff may differ across socioeconomic groups. To assess these tradeoffs, we estimate a dynamic model of residential solar adoption and system sizing in California using household-level data on solar irradiance, electricity consumption, and electricity rates that offer plausibly exogenous variation in the future benefits from adopting relative to upfront costs. We find implicit discount rates of 15.3%, 13.8%, and 10.0% for low-, medium-, and high-wealth households. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate opportunities to reduce the regressivity of solar adoption, increase policy cost-effectiveness, and improve welfare for low-wealth households. |
| JEL: | L94 Q48 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33368 |
| By: | Ostovar, Maryam; Butt, Ali Azhar; Harvey, John T. |
| Abstract: | The UCPRC is updating and expanding the life cycle inventories (LCIs) that are available for materials, pavements, and practices being used in or introduced to California for use in the project-level design software, eLCAP, and in the Caltrans pavement management system, PaveM. This report presents the results of developing LCI for use in life cycle assessment (LCA) for three types of materials or pavement structures being used in California: (1) asphalt binder regionalized to California from a national average, (2) warm mix asphalt (WMA) technologies, and (3) bonded concrete overlay of asphalt (BCOA). These LCIs fill important gaps because asphalt binder environmental product declarations (EPDs) will not be available for several years and very few WMA EPDs are available. The results of the binder LCI showed that California has a typical asphalt binder global warming (GW) of 0.456 kgCO2 eq/kg of binder compared to Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 5 (western states) at 0.487 and the US/Canada average from the Asphalt Institute (AI) LCA study, which was 0.637. This difference is due to the percentage of heavy Canadian oil sands in the crude oil slates in the AI LCA study compared to PADD 5 and California. In the AI study, the heavy oil imported from Canada is 53% of crude input, 18% in PADD 5, and 3% in California. The results of the main study and of the sensitivity analysis suggest that asphalt binder GW should be considered to be a distribution of values rather than a single value, or, if a single value is used, it should be understood that there can be considerable variability around it. WMA is considered a potential means for reducing energy consumption and emissions during the material and construction stages of asphalt concrete by allowing for the lowering of mixing temperatures in the asphalt plant. WMA can also be used with the same mixing temperatures to allow for compaction at lower temperatures at the construction site, which does not reduce energy and emissions from mixing but can result in better compaction and longer pavement life. When WMA is used to reduce the mixing temperature to the lowest recommended temperature, the net reductions in GW range between approximately 2% and 5%, except for one WMA additive where the reduction in mixing temperature resulted in a net GW increase of 14%. It was found that the material stage can be considered the hot spot due to high environmental impacts and high energy consumption compared with the transportation and construction stages, as expected. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, life cycle inventory, life cycle assessment, asphalt binder, bonded concrete overlay of asphalt, warm mix asphalt additives |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8g87z17r |
| By: | Rodier, Caroline |
| Abstract: | This report presents the results of the Ecosystem of Shared Mobility Services in the San Joaquin Valley (Ecosystem) pilot project. The project is part of California Climate Investments (CCI), a statewide initiative that puts billions of Cap-and-Trade dollars to work reducing greenhouse gas emissions, strengthening the economy, and improving public health and the environment — particularly in disadvantaged communities. As the grantee for this pilot project, the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District implemented the pilot program by partnering and/or subcontracting with several local entities including, but are limited to: Sigala Inc.; UC Davis, Institute of Transportation Studies; Shared-Use Mobility Center (SUMC); Self-Help Enterprises, and MOVE. Funding for the Ecosystem pilot project provided by a grant from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) through the Car Sharing and Mobility Option Pilot Project solicitation. Research for the project was also supported by funding through the University of California via the Public Transportation Account and the Road Repair and Accountability Act of 2017 (Senate Bill 1) and the National Center for Sustainable Transportation, supported by the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) and the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) through the University Transportation Centers program. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Demand responsive transportation, Mode choice, Ridesharing, Rural areas, Shared mobility, Transportation disadvantaged persons, Travel behavior, Vehicle sharing |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6x38h5ck |
| By: | Omar Isaac Asensio; Elaine Buckberg; Cassandra Cole; Luke Heeney; Christopher R. Knittel; James H. Stock |
| Abstract: | Charging infrastructure is critical to electric vehicle (EV) adoption, but for chargers to be most useful, EV drivers need to know in real time where they are and whether they are working and available. We investigate the availability of real-time data from DC fast chargers on six major US Interstates and model the impacts of expanding access to real-time data to all DC fast chargers near highways. On average, between March and August 2024, 32.9% of DC fast charging stations adjacent to those six Interstates provided their real-time status on PlugShare, a major charge-finding app, with gaps of up to 1, 308 miles without real-time data. Further, we survey potential car buyers and EV owners and find low credibility of currently-available real-time data. We incorporate this data into a two-sided model of consumer vehicle choice and charging station build-out adapted from Cole et al. (2023). If universal real-time data is accompanied by improved charger uptime and driver confidence in the accuracy of the real-time data, we predict that the EV share of new vehicle sales would grow by 8.0 percentage points in 2030, expanding the EV fleet by 13.2%, and reducing 2030 carbon emissions by 22.5 mmt, versus baseline projections for 2030. |
| JEL: | Q50 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33342 |
| By: | Marini, Marco A.; Nocito, Samuel |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether climate activism favors pro-environmental consumption by examining the impact of Fridays for Future (FFF) protests in Italy on second-hand automobile sales in rally-affected areas. Leveraging data on 10 million automobile transactions occurring before and after FFF mobilizations, we exploit rainfall on the day of the event as an exogenous source of attendance variation. Our findings reveal a reduction in both the total number of cars purchased and their average CO2 emissions, with an uptick in the market share of low-emission vehicles and a corresponding decrease in the market share of high-emission counterparts. We test for two potential mechanisms at work: one mediated by an increase in environmental awareness, the other induced by a rational anticipation of future stricter regulations. Empirical evidence suggests that the latter mechanism is generally more pronounced than the former. However, the first channel seems likely to be at work among individuals aged 18-25, a group that is potentially more involved in the FFF movement. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change, Sustainability |
| Date: | 2025–01–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:349157 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | The Kalundborg industrial symbiosis serves as an excellent example of inter-organizational collaboration, showcasing the principles of industrial ecology and the circular economy. Since the 1960s, local companies have developed a network of material and energy exchanges, turning waste and by-products into reusable resources in a mutually beneficial system. This model not only reduces waste and greenhouse gas emissions but also results in substantial savings in energy and raw material costs. Key participants in this symbiosis include companies such as Novo Nordisk, Novozymes, and Statoil, alongside the Asnaes power plant. These organizations exchange flows of heat, steam, gypsum, and biomass, creating an integrated network where one company's waste becomes a resource for another. The industrial symbiosis has significantly lowered CO2 emissions and saved millions of cubic meters of water, as well as tons of residual materials annually. This research note highlights that trust and inter-organizational collaboration are essential to the success of this circular economy model, while recognizing that its application in other regions will require adjustments tailored to local conditions. |
| Keywords: | circular economy, industrial ecology, industrial symbiosis, inter-organizational collaboration, Kalundborg (Denmark), mutualism, supply chain |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04870887 |
| By: | Christian de Boissieu |
| Abstract: | The energy and ecological transition (EET) is inevitable, desirable, and now accepted worldwide. But how this transition will be financed remains highly uncertain. This Policy Paper analyzes the financing needs and reviews the different possible financial channels. Some avenues have already been launched, and procedures and instruments are being put in place, but all of this remains insufficient. Many solutions will have to be combined, and these will require financial innovations, the broader application of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria, an adaptation of certain banking and financial regulations, and more international cooperation. This paper proposes several recommendations to facilitate the financing of EET. |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaeco:pp_12-23_0 |
| By: | Basheer, Mohammed; Elnour, Zuhal; Pérez, Cristo Facundo; Liao, Wenxi; Siddig, Khalid; Ringler, Claudia |
| Abstract: | Hydropower and irrigation development on the Nile in Sudan can help meet growing food and energy needs. However, these potential infrastructures must be evaluated considering climate change uncertainties and multisector socioeconomic trade-offs. Increased streamflow combined with the recently constructed Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam would provide reliable irrigation water supplies in Sudan under most climate change scenarios but there are distributional impacts. |
| Keywords: | water power; irrigation; infrastructure; climate change; food; energy consumption; Africa; Northern Africa; Sudan |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:polbrf:168426 |
| By: | Peter Levell (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Martin O'Connell (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Kate Smith (Institute for Fiscal Studies) |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:25/03 |
| By: | Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Mashfiq Ahasan Hridoy; Tamim Ahmed |
| Abstract: | This insightful study identifies barriers hindering Chinese overseas investment in the renewable energy sector of Bangladesh, from currency volatility and bureaucratic hurdles to skill shortages and regulatory unpredictability. By comparing Bangladesh’s fiscal tools with China’s robust investment strategies, it identifies actionable solutions to bridge the gaps and attract substantial global funding. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy, Chinese Overseas Investment, Regulatory Uncertainty, Bureaucratic Hurdles, Skill Shortages, Bangladesh |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:report:60 |
| By: | Chao Li; Xing Su; Chao Fan; Jun Wang; Xiangyu Wang |
| Abstract: | Climate physical risks pose an increasing threat to urban infrastructure, necessitating urgent climate adaptation measures to protect lives and assets. Implementing such measures, including the development of resilient infrastructure and retrofitting existing systems, demands substantial financial investment. Unfortunately, a significant financial gap remains in funding infrastructure climate adaptation, primarily due to the unprofitability stemming from the conflict between long-term returns, uncertainty, and complexity of these adaptations and the short-term profit objectives of private capital. This study suggests incentivizing private capital to bridge this financial gap through integrated carbon markets. Specifically, the framework combines carbon taxes and carbon markets to involve infrastructures and individuals in the climate mitigation phase, using the funds collected for climate adaptation. It integrates lifestyle reformation, environmental mitigation, and infrastructure adaptation to establish harmonized standards and provide continuous positive feedback to sustain the markets. It is explored how integrated carbon markets can facilitate fund collection and discuss the challenges of incorporating them into infrastructure climate adaptation. This study aims to foster collaboration between private and public capital to enable a more scientific, rational, and actionable implementation of integrated carbon markets, thus supporting financial backing for infrastructure climate adaptation. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.08004 |
| By: | Eduardo Abi Jaber; Souka\"ina Bruneau; Nathan De Carvalho; Dimitri Sotnikov; Laurent Tur |
| Abstract: | In energy markets, joint historical and implied calibration is of paramount importance for practitioners yet notoriously challenging due to the need to align historical correlations of futures contracts with implied volatility smiles from the option market. We address this crucial problem with a parsimonious multiplicative multi-factor Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model for forward curves, combined with a stochastic volatility factor coming from the Lifted Heston model. We develop a sequential fast calibration procedure leveraging the Kemna-Vorst approximation of futures contracts: (i) historical correlations and the Variance Swap (VS) volatility term structure are captured through Level, Slope, and Curvature factors, (ii) the VS volatility term structure can then be corrected for a perfect match via a fixed-point algorithm, (iii) implied volatility smiles are calibrated using Fourier-based techniques. Our model displays remarkable joint historical and implied calibration fits - to both German power and TTF gas markets - and enables realistic interpolation within the implied volatility hypercube. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.05975 |
| By: | Adrien Bilal; Diego R. Känzig |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that unilateral decarbonization pays for itself in large economies. We estimate economic damages from global temperature shocks and combine them with a climate-economy model to construct Domestic Costs of Carbon: $226 per ton for the United States and $216 per ton for the European Union. When compared to marginal abatement costs, these values imply over 80% unilateral decarbonization for both economies, an order of magnitude larger than under conventional damages estimated based on local temperature. |
| JEL: | E01 E23 F18 O44 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33364 |
| By: | Fahmida Khatun; Syed Yusuf Saadat; Afrin Mahbub; Marium Binte Islam |
| Abstract: | The CPD’s Green Cities Initiative was set up to better understand the drivers of air and plastic pollution in Bangladesh’s cities and develop workable policy solutions. Since its establishment, the Green Cities Initiative has brought together scientific evidence and economic analyses, producing a series of reports, evidence papers, briefing notes, policy briefs, and events that have improved understanding of the problem among policymakers, journalists and members of the academic community. In this policy toolkit, CPD’s Green Cities Initiative has attempted to analyse public attitudes and behaviours associated with air and plastic pollution, complementing the existing work focused on structural and systemic factors. |
| Keywords: | Plastic Pollution, Air Pollution, Green Cities Initiative |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pdb:pbrief:47 |
| By: | Malancha Chakrabarty; Karim El Aynaoui; Youssef El Jai; Badr Mandri; Manish K Shrivastava |
| Abstract: | This paper was originally published on t20brasil.org In a global context marked by unprecedented economic and environmental challenges, Africa stands at a crossroads. The rapid rise in public debt, coupled with the climate emergency, imposes a dual constraint on the continent's countries, severely limiting their ability to pursue sustainable development and mitigate the effects of climate change. This critical situation calls for innovative and effective solutions capable of transforming obstacles into opportunities for a more resilient and prosperous future. In the face of this reality, it is imperative to rethink traditional financing mechanisms and explore innovative approaches that promote both debt relief and climate action. In this context, Debt-for-Green Swaps are emerging as a promising strategy, offering a viable path to reduce financial vulnerability while accelerating investments in environmental sustainability. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:tf03_st_03_0 |
| By: | Bello, S.; Reiner |
| Abstract: | Given the rapid increase in green hydrogen research funding and the hopes that this will help drive cost reductions, it is important to incorporate the latest RD&D spending into the estimation of the learning rate for electrolysis technologies. Thus, we develop a two-factor experience curve model with spillovers and economies of scale that allows us to estimate learning rates for both alkaline and PEM electrolysis technologies using both global- and country-level data from OECD countries. Our research strategy allows us to mitigate estimation or omitted variable bias from ignoring technology-push measures, unobserved country-specific characteristics, and knowledge spillovers. Using an OECD cross-country dataset over 2000-2022, we estimate global learning-by-doing rates of 17.5 %-46.8% and global learning-by-researching rate of 9%-42.3% for electrolysis technologies after incorporating learning parameter estimates into the progress equation. When we allow for spillovers, we find a linear relationship between PEM technology and alkaline technology improvements. Based on our OECD panel dataset, which incorporate more observations, we estimate learning-by-doing rates of 0.6%-9.4% and learning-by-researching rates of 4.0%-19.9%. In addition, country-level electrolysis cost is reduced by about 28% for the sample period 2000-2022 because of global experience spillover effects. Therefore, our empirical findings suggest that the role of technology-push measures remains critical for promoting and achieving cost improvements of electrolysis technologies. Furthermore, the absorptive capacity of a country should be improved to maximise the benefits of spillovers from global learning. |
| Keywords: | Green Hydrogen Technology, Experience Curves, RD&D Spending, Global and OECD, Cost Reductions |
| JEL: | O30 C50 Q42 Q55 |
| Date: | 2024–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2476 |
| By: | Carman, Jennifer Paige (Yale University); Lu, Danning; Ballew, Matthew; Low, Joshua; Verner, Marija; Rosenthal, Seth A.; Barendregt-Ludwig, Kristin; Torres, Gerald; Gelobter, Michel; McKenney, Kate |
| Abstract: | Collaborating with climate justice practitioners, we conducted a nationally representative survey of U.S. adults (n = 1, 011) to measure and explore predictors of Americans’ climate justice beliefs and intentions to engage in related behaviors. We find that only about one-third of Americans have heard of climate justice, but about half of Americans support climate justice goals once they are explained. Support for climate justice is predicted by many factors, including views about global warming, perceptions of climate and racial injustice, cultural worldviews, and demographics including racial identity, gender, and political party/ideology. Our study suggests a need to build public awareness of the term “climate justice, ” the disproportionate harms of climate change, and how climate justice initiatives will address these harms. Our study also illustrates how researchers might incorporate practitioner perspectives in national and international studies on climate justice. |
| Date: | 2024–12–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:phxf9 |
| By: | Wolf-Peter Schill; Claudia Kemfert; Adeline Guéret; Franziska Holz; Alexander Roth; Felix Schmidt |
| Abstract: | Die Ampel-Regierung hat die Energiewende deutlich beschleunigt. Insbesondere der Ausbau der Solarenergie kam gut voran. Die Windenergie liegt derzeit zwar hinter dem Plan, aber die Rahmenbedingungen für einen künftig rascheren Zubau von Windkraftanlagen haben sich stark verbessert. Zudem wurden Fortschritte bei weiteren wichtigen Energiewende-Infrastrukturen wie etwa Strom- und Wasserstoffnetzen erreicht. Einige Bereiche hinken hingegen noch hinterher, insbesondere der Ausbau der Wärmepumpen und der Elektromobilität. Die nächste Bundesregierung muss die Energiewende entschlossen vorantreiben, um das Ziel der Klimaneutralität bis 2045 nicht zu gefährden. Neben einem weiteren Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien sollte sie mehr Tempo machen bei der Sektorenkopplung, also der verstärkten Nutzung erneuerbaren Stroms für Wärme, Verkehr und Wasserstoff. Zunehmend wichtig wird darüber hinaus die effiziente Systemintegration aller Technologien, also die stärkere Ausrichtung von Stromangebot und -nachfrage an Marktpreissignalen. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwakt:102de |
| By: | Etienne de Chambost (TECH ECO (ex-ITESE) - Institut Technico-Economie - CEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - Université Paris-Saclay, CEA - CEA- Saclay - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives, ADEME - Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Énergie); G. Boissonnet (LITEN / CEA-DES - Laboratoire d'Innovation pour les Technologies des Energies Nouvelles et les nanomatériaux - CEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - INES - Institut National de L'Energie Solaire - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Louis Merceron (TECH ECO (ex-ITESE) - Institut Technico-Economie - CEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - Université Paris-Saclay) |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:cea-04874204 |
| By: | Sandrine Levasseur (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | La guerre en Ukraine cristallise trois défis qui taraudent l'Union européenne : son indépendance stratégique, son indépendane énergétique ainsi que sa capacité à devenir une force motrice de la transition écologique. Sur le front de l'énergie ses interventions ont d'ores et déjà produit des résultats significatifs en réduisant drastiquement les importations d'hydrocarbures russes et en accélérant la transition environnementale. Dans le domaine agricole, en revanche, la guerre affecte substantiellement les objectifs ambitieux du Pacte vert, contrevenant à l'ambition européenne de conserver sa capacité exportatrice, composante essentielle de la sécurité alimentaire mondiale. |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04871347 |
| By: | Mert Demirer; Michael Rubens |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide a theoretical characterization of the welfare effects of buyer and seller power in vertical relations and introduce an empirical approach for quantifying the contributions of each channel to deadweight loss. Our model accommodates both monopsony distortions from buyer power and double-marginalization distortions from seller power. Rather than imposing a specific form of vertical conduct, we allow it to arise endogenously based on model primitives. We show that the relative elasticity of upstream supply and downstream demand is the key determinant of whether buyer or seller power creates distortions. Applying our framework to coal procurement by power plants in Texas, we find that 83% of the distortion comes from the monopoly power of coal mines, with the remainder attributed to the monopsony power of power plants. |
| JEL: | J42 L10 L41 L42 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33371 |