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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Federico Fabio Frattini (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Francesco Vona (University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Filippo Bontadini (Luiss University and SPRU – University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | What are the consequences of green industrialization on the labour market and industry dynamics? This paper tackles and quantifies this question by employing observable and reliable data on green manufacturing production for an extensive set of EU countries and 4-digit manufacturing industries for over a decade. First, at a descriptive level, this paper documents that potentially green industries outperform the others in terms of employment, average wages, value added and productivity, net of controlling for other drivers of the labour market and industry dynamics. Second, employing a shiftshare instrument to purge the analysis from possible endogeneity within green potential industries, this paper finds that an expansion of green production implies an increase in employment and value added. In contrast, average wages and labour productivity remain unchanged. These results hold in the short and long term, are heterogeneous depending on the countries considered, and are amplified by existing industry specialization and by accounting for input-output linkages. |
| Keywords: | Green transition, Employment, Manufacturing, Shift-share |
| JEL: | J21 J31 L6 O14 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2024.23 |
| By: | Bohi, Douglas R.; Toman, Michael A. (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | The need to enhance US “critical mineral security” is a recurrent policy theme. In this paper we examine security issues for the critical minerals used to produce EV batteries. We examine those issues through the lens of concerns about international oil insecurity, a major energy policy concern for the United States in the past. We discuss similarities and differences between the factors affecting critical mineral security and international oil security, drawing on policy lessons from years of research on international oil security policy to find lessons for identifying and managing mineral security issues. |
| Date: | 2024–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-24-16 |
| By: | Beatrice Federica Paolella; Tanya Araújo |
| Abstract: | The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) has been instrumental in mitigating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions across Europe since its initiation on January 1, 2005. CO2 has emerged as a traded commodity in the EU ETS, governed by market fundamentals similar to those in other global commodity markets. The interplay of supply and demand, driven by the allocation of allowances, plays thus a crucial role. Here, using real data, we developed networks of EU ETS to model exchanges of allowances between EU countries. Our results provide new insights into the topological structure of trading from 2005-2020. Combining the results from centrality measures, clustering and modularity, the EU ETS networks can be seen in the transition from a structure with few clusters to a structure characterized by numerous clusters organized around new nodes with acquired centrality. |
| Keywords: | Emissions Trading Scheme, Network Analysis, CO2 Trading, Allocation of Allowences. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03372024 |
| By: | Lionel Sopgoui |
| Abstract: | We propose models to quantify the distortion the credit portfolio (expected and unexpected) losses, when the obligor companies as well as their guarantees belong to an economy subject to the climate transition. The economy's productivity is modeled as a multidimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (O.-U.) process while the climate transition is represented by a continuous deterministic carbon price process. We define each loan's loss at default as the difference between Exposure at Default (EAD) and the liquidated collateral, which will help us to define the Loss Given Default (LGD). We consider two types of collateral: financial asset (such as invoices, cash, or investments) or physical asset (such as real estate, business equipment, or inventory). For financial assets, we model them by the continuous time version of the discounted cash flows methodology, where the cash flows SDE is driven by the instantaneous output growth, the instantaneous growth of a carbon price function, and an arithmetic Brownian motion. For physical assets, we focus on property in the housing market. We define, as Sopgoui (2024), their value as the difference between the price of an equivalent efficient building following an exponential O.-U. as well as the actualized renovation costs and the actualized sum of the future additional energy costs due to the inefficiency of the building, before an optimal renovation date which depends on the carbon price process. Finally, we obtain how the loss' risk measures of a credit portfolio are skewed in the context of climate transition through carbon price and/or energy performance of buildings when both the obligors and their guarantees are affected. This work provides a methodology to calculate the (statistics of the) loss of a portfolio of secured loans, starting from a given climate transition scenario described by a carbon price. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.13266 |
| By: | Yan-Hong Yang; Ying-Hui Shao; Wei-Xing Zhou |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the dynamic spillovers among the crude oil, carbon emission allowance, climate change, and agricultural markets. Adopting a novel $R^2$ decomposed connectedness approach, our empirical analysis reveals several key findings. The overall TCI dynamics have been mainly dominated by contemporaneous dynamics rather than the lagged dynamics. We also find climate change has significant spillovers to other markets. Moreover, there are heterogeneous spillover effects among agricultural markets. Specially, corn is the biggest risk contributor to this system, while barley is the major risk receiver of shocks. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.09669 |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This review examines Vietnam's eighth Power Development Plan (PDP8), analyzing how it reveals tensions between traditional energy planning concepts and emerging realities. PDP8 aimed to balance renewable energy and natural gas priorities amidst Vietnam's rapidly changing energy landscape. The planning process struggled to incorporate uncertainties like technology cost declines and global energy crises. Although following a conventional optimization approach, PDP8 underwent repeated delays and pivots, pointing to misalignment between rational planning ideals and implementation constraints. The case study highlights the limitations of 'plan to build' methods focused on rigid engineering blueprints. Instead, Vietnam's energy transition requires strategic approaches that embrace flexibility and scenario analysis. Based on years of participative observation, two interview surveys, and extensive corpus analysis, the review traces PDP8's evolution towards more open-ended strategies. While still detailing infrastructure projects, PDP8 defines adaptive implementation mechanisms and conditional goals dependent on external finance. This shift from project lists to navigational thinking illustrates the need for energy planning to incorporate uncertainty and maintain the capacity to adjust. PDP8 represents a transitional compromise between traditional ten-year planning and emerging 'plan to drive' concepts focused on navigating change with annual updates to the Plan. |
| Abstract: | Cette étude de cas examine le huitième Plan de Développement Électrique du Vietnam (PDP8), en mettant en lumière les tensions entre les concepts traditionnels de planification énergétique et les réalités émergentes. Le PDP8 visait à équilibrer les priorités entre les énergies renouvelables et le gaz naturel dans un paysage énergétique vietnamien en rapide évolution. Le processus de planification a eu du mal à intégrer des incertitudes comme la baisse des coûts technologiques et les crises énergétiques mondiales. Bien qu'il suive une approche d'optimisation conventionnelle, le PDP8 a subi des retards répétés et des réorientations, indiquant un décalage entre les idéaux de planification rationnelle et les contraintes de mise en œuvre. Cette étude de cas met en évidence les limites des méthodes de 'planification pour construire' centrées sur des plans d'ingénierie rigides. Au lieu de cela, la transition énergétique du Vietnam nécessite des approches stratégiques qui embrassent la flexibilité et l'analyse de scénarios. Basée sur des années d'observation participative, deux enquêtes d'entretiens et une analyse approfondie du corpus, l'étude retrace l'évolution du PDP8 vers des stratégies plus ouvertes. Tout en détaillant encore les projets d'infrastructure, le PDP8 définit des mécanismes de mise en œuvre adaptatifs et des objectifs conditionnels dépendant de financements externes. Ce passage de listes de projets à une réflexion axée sur la navigation illustre la nécessité pour la planification énergétique d'intégrer l'incertitude et de maintenir la capacité d'adaptation. Le PDP8 représente un compromis transitoire entre la planification traditionnelle sur dix ans et les concepts émergents de 'planification pour diriger' axés sur la gestion du changement avec des mises à jour annuelles du Plan. |
| Keywords: | Power System Planning, Energy transition, Vietnam, Case study, Adaptative strategies |
| Date: | 2024–08–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-04683709 |
| By: | Miescu, Mirela (Lancaster University); Mumtaz, Haroon (Queen Mary University); Theodoridis, Konstantinos (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper employs Threshold (T)VAR models to investigate the asymmetric impact of oil supply news shocks, analysing variations in both the size and direction of the shocks. Our findings reveal that large and adverse oil shocks exert a stronger effect on real activity, labour market indicators, and risk variables compared to small and favourable shocks. Interestingly, we observe no asymmetry in the response of prices and monetary policy to oil shocks of different magnitudes and signs. Using a theoretical nonlinear model and predictive prior analysis, we demonstrate that search and matching labour frictions cause the risk of becoming unemployed to increase after an oil shock. This rise in unemployment risk triggers strong precautionary savings motives, which increase with the size of the shock, leading to asymmetric responses in real economic and labour market variables, whereas price indicators and the policy rate do not exhibit such nonlinearities consistently with the empirical findings. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2024/18 |
| By: | Fakhri Hasanov; Heyran Aliyeva; Majed Almozaini; Carlo Andrea Bollino (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | This methodological work develops a representation of carbon pricing through the KAPSARC Global Energy Macroeconometric Model (KGEMM). This representation makes two principal contributions in terms of model capabilities: establishing a feedback link from the emissions block to the energy block and connecting the emissions block to the fiscal block, as the government collects revenue from the carbon dioxide emitted by customers / sectors. |
| Keywords: | Agent Based modeling, Analytics, Applied Research, Autometrics |
| Date: | 2024–03–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:mpaper:ks--2024-mp01 |
| By: | King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The aviation sector, known for its significant emission levels, is facing a critical moment, as it strives to balance growth with environmental concerns. With the aim of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, stakeholders such as consumers, investors, manufacturers, airports, airlines, and governments are closely working together. The substantial contribution of aviation to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially CO2 emissions, presents challenges across the short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. As a result, there is a growing focus on addressing the environmental impact of aviation and adopting sustainable practices. |
| Keywords: | Alternative fuels, Carbon market, Clean technology, Climate change |
| Date: | 2024–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:wbrief:ks--2024-wb06 |
| By: | Rapha\"el Boulat |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal effect of mineral trade on conflicts in Africa using a Shift-Share IV approach based on an exogenous price-commodity shock. The main result is that an increase in mineral trade significantly increases the number of conflicts while it has no clear effect on fatalities. Exploring heterogeneous effects, I find that a specific group of minerals, oil and fuels, drives the results on the number of conflicts. Moreover, the group of rare minerals such as coltan, precious metals or cobalt has no effect on the number of conflicts but appears to have an important impact on the number of fatalities. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.08923 |
| By: | Marie Petitet; Raed Al-Mestneer (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | Oil is a versatile source of energy that is used in various sectors, including the power sector. The power sector is transitioning toward low-carbon generation sources. During this transition, it is important to understand the role of oil-based power generation. This paper presents a meta-analysis of the long-term oil demand emerging from the power sector at the international level and by region. The analysis assesses and compares 19 prospective scenarios published between 2021 and 2023. |
| Keywords: | Battery storage, Benefits of electricity trade, Business models, Climate change |
| Date: | 2024–01–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:mpaper:ks--2023-mp06 |
| By: | Winta Beyene (University of Zurich - Department Finance; Swiss Finance Institute); Manthos D. Delis (Audencia Business School); Kathrin de Greiff (Swiss Finance Institute); Steven Ongena (University of Zurich - Department Finance; Swiss Finance Institute; KU Leuven; NTNU Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)) |
| Abstract: | What role plays market versus bank debt for climate transition? We document that fossil fuel firms with more stranded asset risk rely less on bond finance and more on bank credit. Investors in the bond market price the risk that reserves held by fossil fuel firms will strand, while banks in the syndicated loan market do not. We can interpret the within-firm bond-to-loan substitution in stranding risk as a contraction in the supply of bond versus bank credit. Bigger banks provide cheaper and more financing to fossil fuel firms, possibly giving rise to a novel "too-big-to-strand" concern for banking regulators. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2443 |
| By: | Peter Cramton (University of Maryland & Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods Bonn); Axel Ockenfels (University of Cologne & Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods Bonn) |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkpbs:062 |
| By: | Spiller, Beia (Resources for the Future); Wilwerding, Rachel; Russo, Suzanne (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Major investments in electric vehicle (EV) charging station networks will be required to support widespread adoption of EVs. Increasing EV adoption can help improve air quality and, in turn, health outcomes, particularly for communities overburdened by transportation pollution. The creation of a widespread public EV charging station network presents new economic and business opportunities. Thus, an opportunity exists for society to leverage expenditures associated with the electric transition, particularly federal infrastructure investments through programs like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), to improve equity outcomes for communities and households that have been overburdened by transportation pollution due to compounding inequities and structural racism across society. We provide a framework (developed through a literature review and interviews with community-based and non-governmental organizations, EV charging station companies, utilities, and leading researchers) for understanding how charging station investments in urban areas could help reduce existing inequities or may inadvertently exacerbate inequities if a careful approach is not taken. |
| Date: | 2024–08–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-24-14 |
| By: | Bharti Nandwani (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research); Manisha Jain (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of India's Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY), a clean cooking policy that offered free Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) connections to women from economically and socially disadvantaged households, on their well-being. Exploiting the targeted introduction of the policy; and using a large nationally representative data in a difference-in-difference framework, we show that the policy has a positive impact on women's health, education and employment, although the effects on education and employment outcomes are relatively modest. Further, we show that the beneficiary women have higher autonomy post-policy. We also document that in districts with initially lower levels of clean energy access, improvements in employment, education, and health outcomes are lower, but improvements in women's agency measures are higher. Our findings suggest that while the effect on women's autonomy is primarily driven by registering connections in their name, improvements in health, education and employment are due to increased usage of LPG as the main cooking fuel. Overall, these findings provide evidence that a gender-responsive policy like PMUY can effectively enhance access to clean cooking fuel and subsequently improve women's socio-economic outcomes through both connections and consumption channels. |
| Keywords: | Clean cooking fuel, energy access, women health, women agency, employment, gender-responsive policy |
| JEL: | Q48 I38 H42 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2024-017 |
| By: | Olivier Durand-Lasserve (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes a novel, dynamic, forward-looking applied general equilibrium model of Saudi Arabia that represents interactions between the energy sectors and the rest of the economy. This model serves to produce long-term scenarios that describe possible energy transition trajectories in terms of policies, emissions, and economic impacts. This model covers all the sources of greenhouse gas emissions and features several emission reduction technologies and a representation of hydrogen supply and demand. We explain the overall structure of the model and how the different energy demand technologies are represented. We also describe the linkages with the rest of the world through trade in energy commodities. |
| Keywords: | Belt and Road, Capital expenditure, Circular Carbon Economy (CCE), CO2 emissions |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:mpaper:ks--2024-mp04 |
| By: | Adolphsen, Ole; Könneke, Jule; Thielges, Sonja |
| Abstract: | The signatories of the Paris Agreement are required to submit new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by 10 February 2025, laying out targets for 2035. These third generation NDCs - "NDCs 3.0" - are supposed to serve as comprehensive investment and transformation plans and incorporate the findings of the Global Stocktake (GST). The GST was agreed at COP 28 in Dubai to keep the 1.5 degree target within reach. However, hardened fronts between developing and developed countries obstruct the establishment of a progressive coalition to develop ambitious NDCs. Germany and the European Union could inject new life into the NDC 3.0 process by stepping up technical support, promoting diplomatic initiatives and embracing Brazil as a key actor |
| Keywords: | NDC 3.0, nationally determined contribution, NDC, Global Stocktake, GST, Paris Agreement, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC, Just Energy Transition Partnerships, JETP, new collective quantified goal, NCQG |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:302119 |
| By: | King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The worldwide endeavor to achieve a low-carbon, sustainable economic future via energy transition technologies emphasizes the significant need for minerals and materials. |
| Keywords: | Battery storage, Benefits of electricity trade, Business models, Climate change |
| Date: | 2024–05–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:wbrief:ks--2024-wb05 |
| By: | Virginie Andre (Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, Nantes Univ - IUT Saint-Nazaire - Nantes Université - Institut Universitaire de Technologie Saint-Nazaire - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université, LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Didier Bédé (LGTO - Laboratoire de Gestion et des Transitions Organisationnelles - UT3 - Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier - UT - Université de Toulouse); Nathalie Bostel (LS2N - Laboratoire des Sciences du Numérique de Nantes - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - ECN - NANTES UNIVERSITÉ - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes univ - UFR ST - Nantes université - UFR des Sciences et des Techniques - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | From the creation of a multi-energy port hub to optimize the decarbonization of port activities and upstream/downstream transportToday, when we talk about shipping, many people see ships with smokestacks belching thick, heavy smoke. This activity accounts for 3% of CO2 emissions. Ports can play a key role in the energy transition to a more sustainable future (Oloruntobi et al., 2023). Ports are hubs for passengers, shipping, logistics and global trade, and play an important role in linking different regions of the world. Beyond these obvious aspects, the energy dimension must today be taken into account in the management of hub-related activities. Today's standards and regulations require us to manage this resource as effectively as possible, by rethinking supply, storage, distribution and consumption. Today's energies are known, tomorrow's energies are being adopted, and the next ones may not yet have been identified. The Port of Nantes Saint-Nazaire has taken this issue in hand, setting up numerous working groups, studies and projects to negotiate the shift to decarbonization as effectively as possible. The aim of this article is to understand whether the organizational architecture of the Port of Nantes Saint-Nazaire is conducive to optimizing port decarbonation and upstream/downstream transport. To achieve this objective, this research is structured around two main axes: an understanding of the port's organizational architecture, following on from the work of Bédé (2012), and a proposal for a decision-support tool for reconfiguring the port's energy supply chain in relation to upstream/downstream transport (Thanh et al., 2010). |
| Abstract: | De la création d'un hub multi-énergétique portuaire pour optimiser la décarbonation des activités portuaires et des transports amont/avalAujourd'hui, lorsque nous parlons de transport maritime, beaucoup voient des navires aux cheminées crachant une fumée épaisse et lourde. Cette activité représente 3% des rejets de CO2. Les ports peuvent jouer un rôle clé dans la transition énergétique pour un avenir plus durable (Oloruntobi et al., 2023). Les ports sont des hubs pour les passagers, le transport maritime, la logistique et le commerce mondial, et jouent un rôle important en reliant les différentes régions du monde. Au-delà de ces aspects évidents, la dimension énergétique doit aujourd'hui être prise en compte dans la gestion des activités liées à ce hub. Les normes et les réglementations obligent aujourd'hui à gérer au mieux cette ressource en repensant l'approvisionnement, le stockage, la distribution et la consommation. Des énergies sont aujourd'hui connues, celles de demain en cours d'adoption et les prochaines ne sont peut-être pas encore identifiées. Le port de Nantes Saint-Nazaire a pris en main cette problématique en mettant en oeuvre de nombreux groupes de travail, d'études et de projets pour négocier au mieux le virage de la décarbonation. Nous proposons un article dont l'objectif est de comprendre si l'architecture organisationnelle du port de Nantes Saint-Nazaire favorise l'optimisation de la décarbonation portuaire et des transports amont/aval. Pour atteindre cet objectif, cette recherche est structurée autour de deux axes principaux : la compréhension de l'architecture organisationnelle du port dans la continuité des travaux de Bédé (2012) et une proposition d'outil d'aide à la décision relative à la reconfiguration de la Supply Chain énergétique du port en lien avec les transports amont/aval (Thanh et al., 2010). |
| Keywords: | Décarbonation maritime, Supply Chain énergétique, hub énergie portuaire, architecture organisationnelle, reconfiguration de SC |
| Date: | 2024–05–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04690046 |
| By: | Monika Martišková; Patrik Gažo |
| Abstract: | Slovakia heavily relies on energy resources from Russia, but there are efforts to diversify sources, intensified by the Ukraine-Russian war started in 2022. Nuclear power dominates electricity generation, while renewables constitute only 13% of the energy mix, primarily sourced from water, solar, and biomass. Wind and geothermal energy hold untapped potential, crucial for enhancing the country's energy self-sufficiency. Mining and coal burning sector, as well as in the gas distribution industry transformation will have the strongest impact on employees. At the same time, emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and heat pumps are facing huge labour shortages. There are two multi-employer collective agreements in the energy sector, both stipulate requirements on employers to provide requalification if the employer has capacities to do so and oblige employer to consult with the company-level trade union measures related to employees´ qualifications. Nevertheless, more and more frequently, social partners address the energy transition at the company level, and thus the approaches are decentralised and less coordinated, often guided by the company HR policies and less consulted with trade unions. At the same time, social dialogue is missing in the emerging sectors. |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:report:68 |
| By: | Fateh Belaïd; Mohammad Aldubyan (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The agricultural sector and global food security are facing an increasing number of risks due to climate change, the increasing population size, rising energy and agricultural demands, competing demands for land for biofuel production, and the degradation of soil quality. Between 2001 and 2018, the annual consumption of food and agricultural products increased rapidly by approximately 48%, and there was twofold population growth (WEF 2021). This increase in agricultural demand has also stimulated the demand for energy products, as the agricultural sector relies heavily on specific fuels for heating, machinery, and other activities. Given the consistent increasing trend of the global population, the world will be faced with the need to feed approximately 10 billion people by 2050, or approximately 50% more food than in 2010. |
| Keywords: | Agreement, Allocations, Alternative fuels, Balance |
| Date: | 2024–01–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:mpaper:ks--2023-mp04 |
| By: | Jamie Rainey (Department of Computer Science and Information System, Kalasin University) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the intersection of technological resilience and sustainable dwelling design in the context of hydrogen production, with a focus on the potential role of epigenetic mechanisms. As the global energy landscape shifts towards cleaner alternatives, hydrogen production emerges as a critical component. However, the success of hydrogen as a sustainable energy source depends on the resilience of the technologies involved and their integration into everyday life, including the design of sustainable dwellings. This study explores how epigenetic mechanisms, which influence gene expression without altering DNA sequences, could play a role in enhancing the resilience of hydrogen production technologies. The article also discusses how these advances can be integrated into sustainable dwelling designs, contributing to a more robust and adaptive energy future. This study explores the intersection of technological resilience in hydrogen production with epigenetic mechanisms and sustainable dwelling designs. As hydrogen production advances towards becoming a cornerstone of clean energy, understanding how to enhance its resilience against technological disruptions is crucial. This research investigates the role of epigenetic mechanisms in optimizing microbial processes for hydrogen production, which can be influenced by environmental factors associated with sustainable dwelling designs. By integrating principles of sustainable architecture with cutting-edge biotechnological insights, the study aims to develop robust, adaptable systems that improve hydrogen production efficiency while fostering environmental sustainability. The findings reveal how epigenetic adaptations in microorganisms can be leveraged to enhance hydrogen production processes, and how integrating these insights with green building practices can further support the creation of resilient, eco-friendly energy systems. |
| Keywords: | dwelling, epigenetic mechanisms, hydrogen production, technological resilience |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04670052 |
| By: | Brehm, Johannes; Gruhl, Henri; Kottmann, Robin; Schmitz, Laura |
| Abstract: | Does exposure to air pollution impact mental health? This paper uses administrative health insurance data to estimate the long-term cumulative effects of air pollution exposure on mental health outcomes. For identification, we exploit the staggered introduction of Low Emission Zones (LEZs) across German cities, which restrict access for emission-intensive vehicles. We find that LEZs reduce various air pollutants and improve the population's mental health measured by depression and anxiety diagnoses, prescriptions, and specialist visits. The health benefits emerge gradually, with younger individuals benefiting the most. Our findings suggest substantial mental health co-benefits and avoided health costs from improved air quality |
| Abstract: | Wie wirkt sich Luftverschmutzung auf die psychische Gesundheit aus? In dieser Studie nutzen wir administrative Krankenversicherungsdaten, um die langfristigen kumulativen Auswirkungen von Verbesserungen der Luftqualität auf die psychische Gesundheit zu schätzen. Zur Identifizierung nutzen wir die gestaffelte Einführung von Umweltzonen in deutschen Städten, die den Zugang für emissionsintensive Fahrzeuge beschränken. Unsere Analysen ergeben, dass Umweltzonen die Konzentration von Luftschadstoffen reduzieren und die psychische Gesundheit der Bevölkerung verbessern, gemessen an Depressions- und Angstdiagnosen, Verschreibungen und Facharztbesuchen. Die gesundheitlichen Effekte stellen sich erst 2-4 Jahre nach der Einführung der Umweltzonen ein, wobei jüngere Menschen am meisten davon profitieren. Unsere Ergebnisse deuten auf einen erheblichen Zusatznutzen für die psychische Gesundheit und auf vermiedene Gesundheitskosten aufgrund der verbesserten Luftqualität hin. |
| Keywords: | Mental health, air pollution, low emission zones |
| JEL: | I18 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:302183 |
| By: | Kazeem B. Ajide (University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria); Olorunfemi Y. Alimi (Lead City University, Ibadan, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The research investigates the relationship between intelligence quotient (IQ) and environmental degradation, aiming to understand how cognitive abilities influence environmental outcomes across different nations and time periods. The objective is to examine the impact of intelligence quotient (IQ) on environmental indicators such as carbon emissions, ecological demand, and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), seeking insights to inform environmental policy and stewardship. The study utilizes statistical techniques including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS), and Iteratively Weighted Least Squares (IWLS) to analyze data from 147 nations over the years 2000 to 2017. These methods are applied to explore the relationship between IQ and environmental metrics while considering other relevant variables. The findings reveal unexpected positive associations between human intelligence quotient and carbon emissions, as well as ecological demand, challenging conventional notions of "delay discounting." Additionally, variations in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis are identified across different pollutants, highlighting the roles of governance and international commitments in mitigating emissions. The study concludes by advocating for the adoption of a "delay discounting culture" to address environmental challenges effectively. It underscores the complex interactions between intelligence, governance, and population dynamics in shaping environmental outcomes, emphasizing the need for targeted policies to achieve sustainability objectives. |
| Keywords: | Human capital; intelligence quotient; population; output; carbon emission; EKC, World |
| JEL: | C52 O38 O40 Q50 I20 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/017 |
| By: | Jule Hodok; Tomasz Kozluk |
| Abstract: | This report reviews the literature on the distributional consequences of climate change and mitigation and transition pathways. The heterogeneous levels of exposure and vulnerability to climate change across countries, regions, households, and workers hint at the significant distributional costs of inaction. Climate policies will likely trigger a reallocation from “high-polluting” sectors to “green” sectors, disproportionately affecting certain regions and low-skilled workers. Price-based policies, such as carbon taxation, show varied effects across countries: they tend to be more regressive in developed countries and more progressive in developing countries where energy affordability and energy poverty are major concerns. Non-market-based policies are often regressive and can result in equity issues. Effective climate action requires balancing distributional outcomes, ensuring political acceptability, and understanding the link between policy perceptions and support. |
| Keywords: | climate change, distributional impacts, environmental policy, inequality |
| JEL: | D30 H23 J23 Q52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–09–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1820-en |
| By: | Coppens, Léo; Dietz, Simon; Venmans, Frank |
| Abstract: | Integrated assessment models (IAMs) provide key inputs to decision-makers on economically efficient climate policies, and technical change is one of the key assumptions in any IAM that estimates mitigation costs. We conduct a systematic survey of how technical change is currently represented in the main IAMs and find that a diversity of approaches continues to exist. This makes it important to conduct an up-to-date assessment of what difference technical change makes to IAM results. Here we attempt such an assessment, using an analytical IAM with a reduced-form representation of technical change, which we can calibrate on the relationship between abatement costs and the timing of abatement in 109 IAM scenarios from two major databases. We first show in theory how a range of technical-change mechanisms can be adequately captured in a reduced-form model, in which the key difference is whether technical change is a function of time, i.e., exogenous, or cumulative past emissions abatement, i.e., endogenous. We then derive analytical and quantitative results on the effect of technical change on optimal climate policy, for both cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness policy problems. Under cost-benefit analysis, technical change has a quantitatively large, negative effect on long-run emissions and temperatures. The effect on carbon prices differs markedly depending on whether technical change is exogenous or endogenous, and whether clean technology deployment is incentivised by carbon prices or a dedicated deployment subsidy. Under cost-effectiveness analysis, technical change has a small effect on transient emissions and temperatures, but it has a large, negative effect on carbon prices almost irrespective of the policy instruments available. We make several practical recommendations for how IAMs can better incorporate TC, particularly when facing computational constraints. |
| Keywords: | integrated assessment models; climate change; cost-benefit analysis; induced innovation; technical change |
| JEL: | C61 O30 Q54 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–04–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124548 |
| By: | Anne Opschoor (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Dewi Peerlings (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Luca Rossini (University of Milan); Andre Lucas (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | We introduce the vector-valued t-Riesz distribution for time series models of electricity prices. The t-Riesz distribution extends the well-known Multivariate Student’s t distribution by allowing for tail heterogeneity via a vector of degrees of freedom (DoF) parameters. The closed-form density expression allows for straightforward maximum likelihood estimation. A clustering approach for the DoF parameters is provided to reduce the number of parameters in higher dimensions. We apply the t- Riesz distribution to a 24-dimensional panel of Danish daily electricity prices over the period 2017-2024, considering each hour of the day as a separate coordinate. Results show that multivariate t-Riesz-based density forecasts improve significantly upon the standard Student’s t distribution and the t-copula. Further, the t-Riesz distribution produces superior implied univariate density forecasts during the afternoon for the distribution as a whole and during 8 a.m.- 8 p.m. in its left tail. Moreover, during crisis periods, this effect is even stronger and holds for almost every hour of the day. Finally, portfolio Value-at-Risk forecasts during the central hours of the day improve during crisis periods compared to the classical Student’s t distribution and the t- copula. |
| Keywords: | multivariate distributions, (fat)-tail heterogeneity, (inverse) Riesz distribution, electricity prices |
| JEL: | C1 C22 C53 |
| Date: | 2024–07–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20240049 |
| By: | Niken Kusumawardhani; Rafiazka Hilman; Tara Laan; Rachma Indah Nurbani; Nila Warda |
| Keywords: | reformasi subsidi energi, gas minyak bumi cair/liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kesetaraan gender |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:3792 |
| By: | Elizabeth C. Klee; Adair Morse; Chaehee Shin |
| Abstract: | Financing cost differentials tilt the calculus for households toward electric vehicles (EVs). Using 85 million observations on U.S. auto loans, we study households’ credit risk by engine type, seek to uncover the sources and ask if credit risk differentials are being priced. We find that EV borrowers default 29% less relative to internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) borrowers with a back-of-the-envelope value of $1, 457 in lender savings. To disentangle selection from expost exposure to differential costs of running an EV, we implement a differential shock exposure by treatment model of Borusyak and Hull (2023). Do lenders passalong these savings to borrowers? EV borrowers pay 2.2 percentage point lower interest rate, the equivalent of $2, 711 in foregone payments. This lower rate is only for captive (manufacturer-based) lenders, not for bank and nonbank lenders, suggestive of policy and strategic motives by manufacturers, not a passing along of credit risk value. Another $1, 457 is probably not being priced to households. Finally, we find that the ABS market knows, at least partially, allowing for less in loan loss reserves buffering the ABS, reflecting $233 in savings for the ABS issuer. |
| Keywords: | Auto loans; Climate finance; Electric vehicles |
| Date: | 2024–08–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-65 |
| By: | Thomas Hagedorn (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster); Jan Wessel (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster); Marlena Meier (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes (i) the influence of electric bicycle (“e-bike†) ownership on transport mode choice and (ii) how a change in e-bike ownership affects carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Germany. Using longitudinal data from household surveys from 2016 to 2022, we first conduct a trip-level analysis with a mixed multinomial logit model (MMNL model) to estimate mode choice probabilities. The results show that the change in e-bike ownership significantly affects travel behavior, by increasing the likelihood of choosing an e-bike as means of transportation by 14.6 percentage points (p.p.), while correspondingly decreasing the likelihood of choosing other modes, especially conventional bicycles by 5.6 p.p., as well as car and public transportation by about 4 p.p. each. Second, by using observed changes in individual distances traveled and transport-mode-specific emissions values, we calculate net emissions savings per person after acquiring an e-bike. These savings amount to 526.9kg CO2 per person and year. |
| Keywords: | E-Bikes, transport mode choice, CO2 emissions, longitudinal data, mixed multinominal logit model |
| JEL: | R40 C33 Q59 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mut:wpaper:40 |
| By: | Marco Amendola; Marco Valente |
| Abstract: | The electricity generating sector is the single largest source of climate altering pollution. A country aiming to meet its targets for a net-zero economy needs therefore to radically reduce the emissions stemming from this sector. Charging carbon emissions is the preferred market-friendly policy to promote the diffusion of green technologies assuming that investors find more profitable to adopt technologies not burdened by the cost of carbon emissions. We study empirically the effectiveness of an increase in the cost of carbon emissions in order to favor the replacement of power plants burning fossil fuels with generators powered by renewable energy in Italy. Based on hourly data from the Italian electricity market we find that a policy increasing the cost of carbon emissions is less effective than expected in promoting clean energy investments. Indeed, increasing the cost of emissions actually increases the relative profitability of brown energy sources in respect of green ones in the most likely conditions. We conclude that increasing the cost of carbon emissions hinders the diffusion of technologies necessary for the green transition in the Italian electricity production sector. More in general, our results suggest that market friendly policies based on biasing incentives for profit-seeking operators need to carefully analyze the mechanisms underpinning the markets of interests to prevent policy failures. |
| Keywords: | Electricity market; Carbon pricing; Hourly-frequency model; Energy transition |
| Date: | 2024–09–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2024/19 |
| By: | Parisa Pakrooh (Marie Sklodowska-Curie Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Matteo Matteo (Department of Economics, Management and Statistics, University of Milano-Bicocca, and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | The EU carbon market serves as an innovative financial instrument with the primary objective of contributing to mitigate the impacts of climate change. This market demonstrates significant interconnectedness with fossil energy, precious metal, and financial markets, although limited research has focused on the causality, dependency, intensity and direction of time-varying spillover effects. This study aims to investigate the causality direction, degree of dependency structure, and volatility transmission from Brent Oil, UK Natural Gas, Rotterdam Coal, Gold, Silver, Copper, and EuroStoxx600 future prices to EU Allowances during different periods of EU market. To achieve these objectives, this paper proposes a novel methodological approach that combines the most recent econometrics methods, such as Directed Acyclic Graph analysis, C-Vine Copula models, and Time-Varying parameter Vector Auto Regressive models with Stochastic Volatility with the use of a comprehensive sample of daily data from 26 April 2005 to 31 December 2022. The major findings of this study demonstrate that causality predominantly runs from energy, metal, and financial markets to the EU carbon market. The dependency structure, although varying across different sub-periods, shows a strong relationship observed between oil, coal, silver, copper, EuroStoxx600, and CO2 market. Additionally, the oil and copper futures prices exhibit the highest dependence on EUA prices. Furthermore, the study establishes that the EU carbon market is a net receiver of shocks from all other markets, with the energy, metal, and financial markets significantly influencing volatility in EUA prices. The time-varying spillover effect is most pronounced with a one-day lag, and the duration of the spillover effects ranges from 2 to 15 days, gradually diminishing over time. These results have the potential to increase the understanding of the EU carbon market and offer practical guidance for policymakers, investors, and companies involved in this domain. |
| Keywords: | Causality direction, Dependency structure, EU-ETS, Time-varying spillover |
| JEL: | O52 Q43 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2024.22 |
| By: | Hernán Bejarano (Division of Economics, CIDE); Pedro Hancevic (Division of Economics, CIDE); Yadira Peralta (Division of Economics, CIDE) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to contribute to understanding the relationship between environmental attitudes and behaviors with environmental impacts. We achieve this goal by assessing the psychometric validity of the New Ecological Paradigm (NEP) scale in Mexico and exploring correlations between identified factors (attitudes) and real-world behaviors. In contrast to existing literature primarily focused on individuals and households in developed countries, our study investigates how pro-environmental values relate to electricity consumption, energy efficiency, and adoption of environmentally friendly technologies among small- and medium-sized commercial and service businesses in Mexico. We identified four cohesive factors that encapsulate distinct attitudes. Our findings indicate that companies where employees exhibit skepticism towards environmental issues and climate change tend to consume more energy, use less energy-efficient lighting, and have poorer insulation. Additionally, individuals holding stronger beliefs in an impending environmental crisis and human ingenuity are more. |
| Keywords: | NEP scale, Mexico, SMEs, electricity consumption, energy efficiency, green technology adoption. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte636 |
| By: | Ruben Nicolas; Vitĕzslav Titl; Fredo Schotanus; Vitezslav Titl |
| Abstract: | The European Commission co-funds public projects through the European Structural and Investment Funds (ESIF) to stimulate the sustainable economic development of EU Member States. The ESIF budget is about 90 billion euros annually and ESIF beneficiaries are explicitly encouraged to increase their use of Green Public Procurement (GPP) since 2014. In this paper, we study to what extent ESIF co-funding affects the uptake of GPP, using a dataset with all public tender notices in the Czech Republic (2006-2019). Our findings suggest that ESIF co-funding instigates selection behaviour by contracting authorities to improve chances of receiving co-funding. After accounting for selection effects, we find that ESIF co-funding has a small but significant effect on the uptake of GPP. Studying exogenous changes in the ESIF policy conditions, we find that GPP uptake responds to changes in the availability of co-funding and not to stronger policy objectives related to sustainability. Finally, we find that the contracting authority’s prior experience with GPP is positively associated with ESIF co-funding and has only a small effect on GPP uptake aside from ESIF. |
| Keywords: | green public procurement, EU, co-funding, climate policy, policy evaluation, sustainable developmen |
| JEL: | H57 D73 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11263 |
| By: | Joseph Ikechukwu Uduji (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Elda Nduka Okolo-Obasi (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Damian Uche Aja (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Deborah Chinwendu Otei (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Happiness Ozioma Obi-Anike (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Samuel Chukwuemeka Ezuka (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Emmanuel Ejiofor Nwamuo (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Steve Emeka Emengini (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria) |
| Abstract: | Nigeria's oil-producing region is experiencing a surge in community-based vigilante violence, potentially escalating conflict dynamics and increasing fear of injury. The reason it matters is that neighborhood vigilante groups are more likely to participate in criminal, political, and ethnic plotting and are not always controllable. This prompted us to look into whether GMoU cluster interventions by MOCs could lower the heat map of fatalities from vigilante violence in Nigeria's Niger Delta. The results of logit regression and propensity score matching demonstrate that the MOCs' limited CSR efforts to protect the area have been successful in creating, formalizing, equipping, and managing vigilante groups. The results also show that the CSR initiatives have reduced vigilante violence within and between host communities, as well as violence against their residents. This implies that raising awareness of CSR with the goal of strengthening vigilante control will strengthen the local security apparatus, discourage resurgence in the various rural areas, safeguard the workers and equipment of oil firms, and provide a favorable business environment in the area. |
| Keywords: | Vigilante violence, environmental justice, corporate social responsibility, oil producing communities, sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/025 |
| By: | Pavol Bors; Tibor T Meszmann |
| Abstract: | This research report, prepared as a part of the project “REJEnerAXion - Energy for a just and green recovery deal: the role of the industrial relations in the energy sector for a resilient Europe”, a European Union co-funded research project (101052341/SOCPL-2021-IND-REL), investigates Hungary's energy sector transformation within the framework of a just transition. The analysis emphasises key findings related to social dialogue, industrial relations, and collective bargaining in the context of the energy transition. Multi-actor institutional involvement characterises the energy transition in Hungary along with a very high level of (informal) centralisation, that results in non-transparent governance. The high dependency on Russian fuel and technology and the high turbulence in energy production and consumption, especially since the start of the war in Ukraine, have created new uncertainties about the timing and nature of the phase-out of coal. Collective bargaining in Hungary is highly decentralised, with decreasing coverage rates and falling union membership. The energy sector stands out as a regulated sector with high coverage and relatively high union density rates, so far attempting to resisting the negative trends. Sectoral and company-level collective agreements were pivotal in managing property transformation and state ownership changes in the last decades, and provide both an institutional legacy and know-how for sectoral trade unions to deal with the challenges of the green transition. While there is social dialogue within a recently established regional coal commission, the absence of a comprehensive tripartite institution covering the entire workforce hinders effective policy inclusion. Expert informants pointed out that the Hungarian energy transition is fragile as it is a centralised system, which is both driven by and dependent on available financialization and EU regulation and conditionality. The country’s energy transition has a top-down, increasingly centralised characteristic, which lacks transparency and clear, responsive timetable. Trade unions in energy and mining are active in the process emphasise just transition principles, while employer organisations are less vocal. Trade unions do not support unconditionally the transition towards renewables, but advocate alternative solutions. |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:report:67 |
| By: | King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The global energy landscape is undergoing a profound transformation driven by the urgent need to mitigate climate change and transition toward a sustainable, low-carbon future. The development and deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen technologies are gaining traction as strategic priorities for energy transition. |
| Keywords: | Air conditioning, Applied general model, Article 6, Blockchain |
| Date: | 2024–06–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:wbrief:ks--2024-wb03 |
| By: | Daleyza Richardson (Department of Computer Science and Information System, Tsinghua University) |
| Abstract: | Anaerobic digestion is a crucial process in waste management and energy production, offering sustainable solutions by converting organic matter into biogas. This article explores the concept of "oil architecture" within the context of anaerobic digestion, focusing on the role of biomarkers in optimizing the process. The study examines the socioeconomic impacts of anaerobic digestion, considering how advancements in oil architecture and biomarker identification can influence the efficiency and scalability of biogas production. Through a comprehensive review of existing literature and empirical research, the study identifies key socioeconomic benefits, including job creation, energy security, and environmental sustainability, while also discussing the challenges and opportunities associated with integrating advanced technologies into anaerobic digestion. This study explores the intersection of oil architecture and biomarkers within anaerobic digestion processes, focusing on their role in enhancing biogas production efficiency and sustainability. By analyzing the structural components of oils and the presence of specific biomarkers, the research aims to optimize anaerobic digestion systems, leading to improved biogas yields. Additionally, the socioeconomic impacts of these advancements are evaluated, considering how enhanced biogas production can contribute to energy security, reduce waste management costs, and promote environmental sustainability. The findings highlight the potential of integrating oil architecture and biomarkers into anaerobic digestion as a strategy for addressing both technical and socioeconomic challenges in renewable energy production. |
| Keywords: | oil architecture, biomarker, anaerobic digestion, socioeconomic impact |
| Date: | 2024–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04670063 |
| By: | Hernán Bejarano (Division of Economics, CIDE); Pedro Hancevic (Division of Economics, CIDE); Héctor Núñez (Division of Economics, CIDE) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the sales and expenditures of small and medium-sized businesses in Mexico. Using a novel survey that captures the economic conditions and expectations before and during the pandemic, we also incorporate electricity billing data as a proxy for economic activity and as a revealed measure of firms' flexibility in reducing costs. We examine these variables in relation to firms' characteristics, adaptation strategies, and expectations during the pandemic. Our analysis employs non-parametric tests and a set of econometric models, revealing a significant decline in sales alongside limited flexibility in expenditures. The effects vary depending on the strategies firms adopt to cope with the crisis and their negative expectations regarding a quick return to normality. Consequently, most SMEs face a precarious economic situation, highlighting the need for new policies and strategies to enhance their survival prospects in emerging economies such as Mexico. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, small and medium-sized enterprises (SME), activity restrictions, electricity consumption, emerging countries |
| JEL: | D22 L20 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte639 |
| By: | Liao, Yanjun (Penny) (Resources for the Future); Luo, Bei; Spiller, Beia (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the interaction between financial purchase subsidies and charging infrastructure development in promoting electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Leveraging survey data from the Clean Vehicle Rebate Project (CVRP) in California and spatial information on charging stations, we find a significant positive impact of higher charging station density on self-reported importance of CVRP rebates in EV purchase decisions. The results exhibit substantial heterogeneity between lower- and higher-income individuals, likely due to their different charging needs. Our findings reveal a complementary relationship between improving charging prevalence and providing purchase subsidies, which suggests that a hybrid policy combining these two types of incentives might help optimize the overall cost-effectiveness in accelerating EV adoption. |
| Date: | 2024–07–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-24-12 |
| By: | Ansari, Dawud; Gehrung, Rosa Melissa; Pepe, Jacopo Maria |
| Abstract: | The competition for carbon capture, storage, and utilisation is intensifying. Historically dominated by North America, the lead in this technology is now being seized by key players across Asia - reaching from Saudi Arabia to Japan. Unlike traditional energy (transition) geopolitics, this new arena prioritises technology, geology, and industrial leadership over raw materials. For Germany and Europe, the developments imply a need for more pragmatism in climate diplomacy and policy instruments. Moreover, to keep pace with competitors, policymakers should adopt a proactive approach to CCS vis-à-vis technology and industry. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Capture and Storage, CCS, Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage, CCUS, Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage, DACCS, blue hydrogen, energy transition, Paris Agreement, Gulf states, Australia, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, USA, Canada, technopolitics, geopolitics, industrial leadership, technological competition |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:302121 |
| By: | Weth, Mark A.; Baltzer, Markus; Bertram, Christoph; Hilaire, Jérôme; Johnston, Craig |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a forward-looking metric of transition risk that relates financial performance and incremental carbon costs at the firm level. To this end, we use a consistent dividend discount framework augmented with emission costs of firms and climate scenario projections from four large-scale integrated assessment models. Assuming a revision of market expectations from a baseline scenario to a net zero transition, we derive equity price impacts for 5, 050 non-financial stock corporations covering half of global equity market capitalization and 17% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Our results suggest considerable disparities in firms' capacities to bear the scenario-implied costs of direct emissions. While especially fossil fuel energy firms and large emitters are exposed to potentially high devaluations and stranding, the majority of capitalization under review is exposed to moderate losses in a single-digit percentage range. We present the bandwidth of results across IAMs under alternative baseline scenarios and cost pass-through assumptions. |
| Keywords: | Transition risk, Asset pricing, Carbon price, Paris alignment, Stranded assets |
| JEL: | G12 G15 Q42 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:301862 |
| By: | Elisa Ndiaye (BNP-Paribas, CMA - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres); Antoine Bezat (BNP-Paribas); Emmanuel Gobet (CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées de l'Ecole polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ying Jiao (ISFA - Institut de Science Financière et d'Assurances) |
| Abstract: | Tackling climate change is one of the biggest challenges of today. Limiting climate change translates to drastically cutting carbon emissions to net zero as soon as possible. More and more commitments have been made by various authorities and companies to mitigate their GHG emissions accordingly, notably the Paris Agreement in 2015 that sets the 'well-below 2°C' target. These energy targets generate the so-called 'transition risks' and has impulsed a new type of financial risks assessment exercise: Climate Stress-Tests. However, the tools for these Stress-Tests remain limited. We propose a model that accounts for companies' business model evolution in a given transition scenario for credit risk stress testing. Our model represents a single firm's business model employing probabilistic modeling. We use stochastic control to derive the company's intensity reduction strategy, as well as the resulting sales revenues and total emissions. We solve the minimization program using a numerical resolution method that we call Backward Sampling. We find that the intensity reduction strategy that would consist in following the same decrease rate as the sector inflates the company's costs (up to 15.7% more expensive than the optimal strategy). Moreover, we show that investing the same amount as the total carbon cost paid at a given date is limited by its lack of a forward-looking feature, making it unable to provide a buffer for future carbon shocks in a disorderly transition scenario. |
| Date: | 2024–08–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-04682824 |
| By: | Chen Chen; Koralai Kirabaeva; Ms. Christina Kolerus; Ian W.H. Parry; Nate Vernon |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the Brazilian economy's exposure to climate change focusing on two key areas: agriculture and hydropower. While climate vulnerabilities are significant and recent patterns of land-use further amplify climate change risk, Brazil's opportunities for green growth are vast. Given geography and existing infrastructure, notably the very green energy mix, Brazil can boost its economic potential while mitigating a potential tradeoff between energy use, emissions, and growth. Policy options to address key vulnerabilities and leverage opportunities include boosting the Amazon's resilience via fiscal incentives for forest protection, investing in climate smart agriculture and insurance guided by sustainable feebates, continuing the diversification of renewable power generation, and stimulating green growth while greening the financial sector. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; deforestation; fiscal incentives; feebate; carbon market; adaptation |
| Date: | 2024–08–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/185 |
| By: | Niken Kusumawardhani; Rafiazka Hilman; Tara Laan; Nila Warda; Rachma Indah Nurbani |
| Keywords: | energy subsidy reform, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), gender equity |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agg:wpaper:1699 |
| By: | Hernan Winkler (World Bank Poverty and Equity Global Practice); Vincenzo Di Maro (World Bank Poverty and Equity Global Practice); Kelly Montoya (World Bank Poverty and Equity Global Practice); Sergio Olivieri (World Bank Poverty and Equity Global Practice); Emmanuel Vazquez (CEDLAS-IIE-FCE-UNLP) |
| Abstract: | A growing body of literature investigates the labor market implications of scaling up “green†policies. Since most of this literature is focused on developed economies, little is known about the labor market consequences for developing countries. This paper contributes to filling this gap by providing new stylized facts on the prevalence of green occupations and sectors across countries at varying levels of economic development. Green occupations are defined using the Occupational Information Network, and green sectors are those with relatively lower greenhouse gas emissions per worker. The paper offers an initial assessment of how the implementation of green policies—aimed at expanding green sectors and strengthening the relative demand for green skills—may affect workers in developing economies. It finds that the share of green jobs is strongly correlated with the level of gross domestic product per capita across countries. When controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, a 1 percent increase in gross domestic product per capita is associated with 0.4 and 4.1 percentage point increases in the shares of new and emerging, and enhanced skills green jobs, respectively. The paper then focuses on Latin America and finds that only 9 percent of workers have a green job with respect to both occupation and sector. The findings show that within countries, workers with low levels of income and education are more likely to be employed in non-green sectors and occupations, and to lack the skills for a greener economy. This evidence suggests that complementary policies are needed to mitigate the potential role of green policiesin widening income inequality between and within countries. |
| JEL: | Q5 Q52 Q56 J01 J21 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dls:wpaper:0335 |
| By: | Fourné, Marius; Li, Xiang |
| Abstract: | This study employs bilateral data on external assets to examine the impact of climate policies on the reallocation of international capital. We find that the stringency of climate policy in the destination country is significantly and positively associated with an increase in the allocation of portfolio equity and banking investment to that country. However, it does not show significant effects on the allocation of foreign direct investment and portfolio debt. Our findings are not driven by valuation effects, and we present evidence that suggests diversification, suasion, and uncertainty mitigation as possible underlying mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | capital flows, climate change policy, green investment, international asset allocation |
| JEL: | F21 F36 F64 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:302560 |
| By: | Andres Felipe Guzman; Freddy Segundo Navarro Pineda (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a comprehensive methodology that contributes to informed decision-making and addresses environmental challenges across different sectors. The methodology has significantly evolved from its first development by the Coca-Cola Company in 1969 to its standardization by the International Organization for Standardization. The flexibility of LCA in environmental impact assessments in various industries, activities, and products has enabled it to support sustainability goals and initiatives such as the Paris Agreement and the European Union’s circular economy action plan. Specifically, in the air transportation sector, LCA has been applied in specific case studies involving fuel options, combustion emissions, and aircraft technologies to reduce climate impacts and achieve net-zero targets. The International Civil Aviation Organization has also developed a methodology to evaluate life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for aviation fuels that aligns with the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation sustainability criteria. |
| Keywords: | Alternative fuels, Carbon market, Clean technology, Climate change |
| Date: | 2024–03–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:mpaper:ks--2024-mp02 |
| By: | Elvis K. Ofori (Taiyuan University of Technology, China); Festus V. Bekun (Istanbul, Turkey); Bright A. Gyamfi (Ä°stanbul Ticaret University, Turkey); Ali E. Baba (Ural Federal University, Russia); Stephen T. Onifade (KTO Karatay University, Konya, Turkey); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | The current study thus explored the impact of technological innovation and trade openness on clean energy while accounting for economic growth, access to electricity, pollution, industrial restructuring, and urbanization using data from 1990 to 2020 for both the MINT and BRICS economies. A series of test were performed for a robust analysis using second generation econometrics approaches before proceeding to investigate the long-run linkages between renewable energy and the duo of innovation and trade using the Prais-Winsten regression model with panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) while the Driscoll-Kraay standard errors test was applied for robustness checks. The results, firstly confirm the presence of heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and cointegration among the selected variables. Secondly, technological innovation as a renewable energy determinant demonstrated negative elasticities in both BRICS countries and the full sample, but a positive elasticity in the MINT countries. Thirdly, concerning trade liberalisation, negative elasticities were obtained for the full sample and MINT countries, while the elasticities were positive for the BRICS bloc. Fourthly, the roles of economic growth and environmental pollution reveal a negative impact on renewable energy consumption for all samples while urbanisation and industrial restructuring promote renewable energy developments only in the BRICS bloc. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy, trade liberalization, technological innovation, Prais-Winsten regression |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:24/022 |
| By: | Hernán Bejarano (Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), University of Florida); Pedro Hancevic (Division of Economics, CIDE); Hernán Bejarano (Division of Economics, CIDE) |
| Abstract: | We propose an empirical model to evaluate firms' choices in electric tariff contracting. By combining novel data from the Non-residential Electricity Consumption Survey (ENCENRE) with utility billing data from the national utility company, we analyze two pathological situations revealed by the electric bills of commercial and service SMEs in Aguascalientes, Mexico, during 2019 and 2020. First, despite being banned, many firms pay the residential tariff. Among these firms, some pay the regular subsidized rate, while others pay the high-demand rate, which is higher than the corresponding business rate. Additionally, for another group of companies, there are two competing business tariffs, many of which are misclassified and thus must be re-categorized to afford less expensive electric bills. A rich set of explanatory variables is used to quantify the two biases, explain the wrong decisions, estimate hidden costs and subsidies at the national level, and provide valuable policy implications. |
| Keywords: | tariff misclassification, firm behavior, electricity consumption, self- selection, suboptimal choice, illegal behavior. |
| JEL: | L1 Q4 D22 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emc:wpaper:dte637 |
| By: | Yu-Ann Wang (Taiwan Research Institute, Taiwan); Chia-Lin Chang (National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan) |
| Abstract: | This study explores risk transmission in financial markets, focusing on investor hedging decisions. It examines risk movement between renewable and fossil fuel energy assets in energy ETFs during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. A novel test evaluates how an energy asset's volatility impacts the overall portfolio risk, offering insights for managing financial risk. The analysis covers three major renewable energy ETFs (solar, wind, and hydro) and three fossil fuel ETFs (oil, coal, and natural gas). During the COVID-19 crisis, effective combinations such as (solar, coal) and (wind, coal) are recommended for minimizing losses. Although not ideal for hedging solar-related risks, (solar, oil) is advantageous for oil-related shocks. The study found that combining solar with oil and wind with oil was effective in mitigating losses during the GFC and before COVID-19. In non-pandemic periods, combinations like (solar, oil) or (solar, coal) are valuable for risk management. This research highlights the interconnectedness of energy assets and provides actionable insights for investors and policymakers. Future research could examine other events, like the Russia-Ukraine war, impacting global energy markets. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy, Volatility spillover, Risk Transfer, GFC, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | C32 C58 G01 G11 G14 Q42 Q47 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1108 |
| By: | King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | As shipping has the advantage of being the most cost-effective mode of transportation, it will continue to grow with increasing international trade flows. Therefore, this advantage must be leveraged to achieve the long-term goals of the maritime industry. |
| Keywords: | Alternative fuels, Carbon market, Clean technology, Climate change |
| Date: | 2024–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:wbrief:ks--2024-wb04 |
| By: | Fabio Alessandrini (University of Lausanne; Banque Cantonale Vaudoise); Eric Jondeau (University of Lausanne - Faculty of Business and Economics (HEC Lausanne); Swiss Finance Institute); Lou-Salomé Vallée (University of Lausanne and Center for Risk Management Lausanne) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive comparative analysis of various portfolio construction techniques in the context of decarbonization and the pursuit of net-zero objectives aligned with the 2015 Paris Agreement. Specifically, we examine different strategies that qualify as Article 9 funds under EU regulations, focusing on carbon emissions reduction objectives, such as screening and tracking error minimization techniques. Our findings indicate that all approaches would have achieved the targeted emissions reductions over the 10-year period (2012-2021) analyzed. However, the method of decarbonization significantly affects ex-post tracking errors, with the more ambitious Paris-Aligned Benchmark requiring a substantial departure from the business-as-usual benchmark. Additionally, the tracking error minimization approach involves considerable reallocation of individual securities, potentially leading to, possibly undesirable, idiosyncratic exposures. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp2444 |
| By: | Fateh Belaïd; Mohammad Aldubyan (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | As one of the largest consumers of energy resources, the building sector plays a key role in the evolution of the global energy landscape. Buildings account for approximately one-third of the world’s final energy consumption. This methodology paper aims to provide a projection of oil demand in the building sector. The adopted modeling framework disaggregates the oil demand outlook by four fuel types and eight regions, which, in aggregate, add up to establish the global long-term oil demand outlook for the building sector up to 2050. |
| Keywords: | Agreement, Allocations, Alternative fuels, Balance |
| Date: | 2024–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:mpaper:ks--2024-mp03 |