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on Energy Economics |
| By: | López, Lucia; Odendahl, Florens; Parrága, Susana; Silgado-Gómez, Edgar |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregressive (BSVAR) framework to estimate the pass-through of unexpected gas price supply shocks on HICP inflation in the euro area and its four largest economies. In comparison to oil price shocks, gas price shocks have approximately one-third smaller pass-through to headline inflation. Country-specific results indicate gas price increases matter more for German, Spanish and Italian inflation than for French inflation, hinging on the reliance on energy commodities in consumption, production, and different electricity prices regulation. Consistent with gas becoming a prominent energy commodity in the euro area, including time-variation through a time-varying parameter BVAR demonstrates a substantially larger impact of gas price shocks on HICP inflation in recent years. The empirical estimates are then rationalized using a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK-DSGE) model augmented with energy. In the model, the elasticity of substitution between gas and non-energy inputs plays a critical role in explaining the inflationary effects of gas shocks. A decomposition of the recent inflation dynamics into the model structural shocks reveals a larger contribution of gas shocks compared to oil shocks. JEL Classification: C11, C32, E31, Q41 |
| Keywords: | Bayesian VARs, inflation, natural gas and oil shocks, new Keynesian DSGE |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242968 |
| By: | Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh; Christophe Rault |
| Abstract: | While the financial inclusion would induce greater pollutant emissions through its impact of economic activity, the increased access to financial services may unleash investments in green technologies. This papier investigates whether the financial inclusion influences the dynamic of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in a sample of 70 countries during the last decade. We implement panel threshold techniques to explore the possible regime shifts in the environmental quality. Our results reveal that an increased financial access impacts air pollution depending on the level of economic development. While financial inclusion would increase CO2 emissions under lower-income regimes, the environment quality seems to be enhanced with more inclusiveness at later stages of development. Sounder environmental policies are needed for less developed countries to align financial inclusion initiatives with sustainable economic development. |
| Keywords: | financial inclusion, carbon emissions, panel threshold modelling |
| JEL: | C23 O16 O44 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11237 |
| By: | Hanxin Zhao |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the adoption of a green ammonia economy in meeting challenges in China's sustainable development. First, key challenges in China's energy transition, industry decarbonziation and regional sustainable development are explored. The coal-dominated energy consumption has placed great obstacles in achieving energy transition and led to massive CO2 emission since the large-scale industrialization. The high dependency on oil and gas import has threatened the energy security. A DEA model is applied for obtaining green total factor productivities of China's six administrative regions, with which, imbalanced and unsustainable regional development is identified. Second, the role of green ammonia in meeting the sustainability challenges is analysed. Ammonia is examined to be a flexible and economic option for large-scale hydrogen transport and storage. Co-firing ammonia in coal power generation at 3% rate is evaluated as an option for achieving low-carbon transition by 2030. The adoption of a green ammonia economy in China is discussed from energy, environmental and economic aspects. The practice can decline fossil energy consumption, enhance energy security, and facilitate renewable energy delivery and storage, industry decarbonization, and regional development. We assume the findings and results contribute to addressing sustainability challenges and realizing a hydrogen economy in China. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.07632 |
| By: | Adel Ben Youssef (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Mounir Dahmani (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (1965 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UniCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Mohamed Mabrouki |
| Keywords: | Energy, Climate change, Tunisia, Sustainability, Carbon dioxide emissions, Economic growth |
| Date: | 2024–07–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04647252 |
| By: | Lavinia Heisenberg; Richhild Moessner |
| Abstract: | The transition to net zero carbon emissions necessary to limit global warming importantly involves greater use of renewable energies, especially solar energy, and scaling up renewable energy storage and generation. This paper discusses expanding the use of molten salt for renewable energy storage and generation, in an environmentally friendly way and making use of existing infrastructure. This includes using molten salt to store solar energy in concentrated solar plants, replacing coal by molten salt to power thermal plants and thereby convert existing coal thermal plants to renewables, and linking these two uses. Additionally, the use of molten salt in thermal batteries for grid-scale energy storage and in green hydrogen production is explored. The paper also delves into the significance of green technology policies in facilitating the use of molten salt for these applications. |
| Keywords: | molten salt, energy storage, renewable energy, solar energy, concentrated solar power plants, grid storage, conversion of thermal coal plants, green technology support policies |
| JEL: | Q00 Q48 Q58 Q40 Q50 Q55 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11223 |
| By: | Bello, S.; Onolemhemhen, R. |
| Abstract: | Exploring the role of carbon pricing policy in reducing carbon emission intensity remains an urgent and ongoing debate among academics and practitioner communities. Unlike the prior research relying on a single-factor indicator for carbon emission intensity with inadequate attention to endogeneity issues, this study investigates the influence of carbon pricing policy on Canadian provinces’ carbon emissions over the sample period 2000-2022. The study makes a novel contribution by developing a theoretically grounded empirical model to mitigate the risk of biased estimates from a single-factor indicator while allowing for heterogeneity and addressing the issue of endogeneity in its production SFA (stochastic frontier analysis) settings. The study’s SFA results reveal that carbon pricing policy significantly influences the level of the province's carbon emissions by reducing carbon inefficiency. Furthermore, economic growth mitigates carbon emissions intensified by an increase in the amount of capital equipment and energy consumption. On the other hand, multi-factor carbon emission efficiency exhibits significant variations across Canadian provinces. Thus, it is a worthy recommendation for Canadian policymakers to align the use of advanced equipment with carbon emission reduction targets. |
| Keywords: | Carbon pricing policy, carbon emission intensity, stochastic frontier analysis, Canadian provinces |
| JEL: | Q5 C13 D24 H23 |
| Date: | 2024–07–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2445 |
| By: | Pollitt, M. G. |
| Abstract: | Paul Lewis Joskow (1947-) |
| Keywords: | Incentive regulation, vertical integration, emissions markets, electricity liberalization |
| JEL: | L43 L51 Q53 Q54 L94 |
| Date: | 2024–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2443 |
| By: | Wang, Guihua; Fulton, Lewis |
| Abstract: | The concept of hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) is not new, but has gained renewed interest lately, especially for heavy-duty trucks. Different from hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), which represent a novel zero-emission technology, hydrogen engines are modified conventional engines running on hydrogen fuel instead of gasoline or diesel. This study presents a comparative review of hydrogen engines and fuel cells, based on existing reports and discussions with industry. We consider aspects such as vehicle efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria pollutant emissions, hydrogen fuel purity, vehicle attributes, vehicle acquisition costs, total costs of ownership, and new policies. We find that hydrogen ICEVs offer some advantages and disadvantages: advantages include lower production cost and potentially greater reliability; disadvantages include potentially overall lower efficiency (and thus higher fuel cost) and lack of zero-vehicle-emission operation. While the technologies could be complementary (e.g., hydrogen ICEVs serving as a transition technology toward FCEVs), they also may compete, with success for hydrogen ICEVs resulting in setbacks for FCEV market success. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicle, fuel cell electric vehicle, heavy-duty vehicle, zero-emission vehicle, total cost of ownership |
| Date: | 2024–08–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4bn4r7td |
| By: | Kaldorf, Matthias; Shi, Mengjie |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that firm credit constraints impair climate policy. Empirically, firms with tighter credit constraints, measured by their distanceto-default, exhibit a relatively smaller emission reduction after a carbon tax increase. We incorporate this channel into a quantitative DSGE model with endogenous credit constraints and carbon taxes. Credit frictions reduce the optimal investment into emission abatement since shareholders are less likely to receive the payoff from such an investment. We find that carbon taxes consistent with net zero emissions are 24 dollars/ton of carbon larger in the presence of endogenous credit constraints than in an economy without such frictions. |
| Keywords: | Climate Policy, Credit Constraints, Emission Reduction, Corporate Capital Structure, Firm Heterogeneity |
| JEL: | E44 G21 G28 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:300704 |
| By: | Rudolfs Bems; Luciana Juvenal; Weifeng Larry Liu; Warwick J. McKibbin |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the economic effects of climate policies on different regions and countries with a focus on external adjustment. The paper finds that various climate policies could have substantially different impacts on external balances over the next decade. A credible and globally coordinated carbon tax would decrease current account balances in greener advanced economies and increase current accounts in more fossil-fuel-dependent regions, reflecting a disproportionate decline in investment for the latter group. Green supply-side policies—green subsidy and infrastructure investment—would increase investment and saving but would have a more muted external sector impact because of the constrained pace of expansion for renewables or the symmetry of the infrastructure boost. Country characteristics, such as initial carbon intensity and net fossil fuel exports, ultimately determine the current account responses. For the global economy, a coordinated climate change mitigation policy package would shift capital towards advanced economies. Following an initial rise, the global interest rates would fall over time with increases in the carbon tax. These external sector effects, however, depend crucially on the degree of international policy coordination and credibility. |
| Keywords: | global climate policies, carbon taxes, net-zero emissions, current account balances, international capital flows, dynamic general equilibrium modelling, G-Cubed |
| JEL: | F41 F42 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-50 |
| By: | Davi-Arderius, Daniel (University of Barcelona); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | With the increasing participation of renewable sources, prices of energy commodity in the day-ahead markets have been decreasing and in increasing number of hours to zero or even negative prices. However, in hours with prices and charges equal or below zero, end-users may still pay significant prices for the ‘free’ electricity, which presents a paradox. This paper analyses the zero-negative price paradox in a highly decarbonized electricity market. We use Seasonal ARIMA methods with hourly data from the Spanish power system (2021-2024). We find that non-energy system costs increase when day-ahead prices decrease. Thus, customers do not receive efficient price signals to adjust their consumption when more renewables are available. In other words, some benefits of lower prices seem to be traded-off with this “price paradox”. Similar results can be anticipated in other countries with increasing share of renewables. Future studies of welfare impact of electricity prices should consider how to minimize these increasing non-energy costs. |
| Keywords: | Energy-only market; Day-ahead electricity markets; Negative prices; Renewables; Decarbonization; Ancillary services |
| JEL: | L10 L50 L94 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024–08–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2024_013 |
| By: | Mr. Rudolfs Bems; Luciana Juvenal; Weifeng Liu; Warwick J. McKibbin |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the economic effects of climate policies on different regions and countries with a focus on external adjustment. The paper finds that various climate policies could have substantially different impacts on external balances over the next decade. A credible and globally coordinated carbon tax would decrease current account balances in greener advanced economies and increase current accounts in more fossil-fuel-dependent regions, reflecting a disproportionate decline in investment for the latter group. Green supply-side policies—green subsidy and infrastructure investment—would increase investment and saving but would have a more muted external sector impact because of the constrained pace of expansion for renewables or the symmetry of the infrastructure boost. Country characteristics, such as initial carbon intensity and net fossil fuel exports, ultimately determine the current account responses. For the global economy, a coordinated climate change mitigation policy package would shift capital towards advanced economies. Following an initial rise, the global interest rates would fall over time with increases in the carbon tax. These external sector effects, however, depend crucially on the degree of international policy coordination and credibility. |
| Keywords: | Global climate policies; carbon tax; net-zero emissions; current account balances; international capital flows; dynamic general equilibrium modelling; G-Cubed |
| Date: | 2024–07–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/162 |
| By: | O'Donoghue, Cathal; Immervoll, Herwig; Gizem, Zeynep; Linden, Jules; Sologon, Denisa |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:bp2025/3 |
| By: | David Haugh |
| Abstract: | New Zealand, like other countries, needs to address climate change on two fronts simultaneously. Adapting to a hotter world while meeting its emissions reduction targets. New Zealand will need to become better prepared for more extreme weather that climate change will bring about. Councils will need new sources of revenue to fund the infrastructure that adaptation requires. Maintaining a comprehensive package of private insurance for climate-related losses with sharper premium price signals will also be essential. Developing a long-term energy strategy that weighs up all the main options for reducing emissions, while ensuring security of supply in a hotter world, is also crucial. New Zealand has made important strides to strengthen the policy framework for reducing GHG emissions. An important part of the framework is the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). However, the ETS should be reviewed with a focus on the treatment of carbon removals through afforestation. New Zealand’s next overall emissions reduction plan should be underpinned by a rigorous and comprehensive cost-benefit comparison of the different emissions reduction options. |
| Keywords: | adaptation, climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, mitigation, New Zealand |
| JEL: | O13 O18 Q16 Q23 Q28 Q48 Q50 Q53 Q54 Q58 R11 R12 R14 R48 R52 |
| Date: | 2024–08–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1815-en |
| By: | Elisa Belfiori; Manuel Macera |
| Abstract: | We study optimal climate policy in a global economy where regions differ in wealth and climate vulnerability. Carbon emissions from production lead to output losses, and there is a technology for emissions absorption. We provide an aggregation result: the model with heterogeneity can be cast into a representative region economy with a different discount factor and damage function. This result offers a simple rule to account for inequality in the design of climate policy. We show that wealthier regions should bear more responsibility for carbon capture to cleanse the atmosphere, and that inequality per se does not entail a compromise on emissions reduction. It is only if regions must contribute uniformly to carbon capture that the optimal climate policy dictates higher global net emissions relative to the first best. An important insight is that carbon capture serves as a redistribution tool when direct lump-sum transfers across regions are unfeasible. |
| Keywords: | heterogeneous regions, negative emissions, inequality, carbon capture |
| JEL: | Q54 D63 E60 H41 H21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11239 |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | L’activité humaine a transformé la planète à un rythme et à une échelle sans précédent dans l’histoire, causant des dommages irréversibles aux communautés et aux écosystèmes. Les pays ont concentré leurs capacités sur la croissance économique, avec peu d’attention aux externalités associées en termes de qualité environnementale. Le monde n’évitera pas un réchauffement catastrophique à moins que les pays riches n’accélèrent leurs propres réductions d’émissions et n’aident les pays les plus pauvres à faire de même. L'Amérique du Nord et l'Europe ont contribué à 62 % des émissions de dioxyde de carbone depuis la révolution industrielle, tandis que l'Afrique n'en a contribué qu'à 3 %. Cependant, c’est en Afrique subsaharienne (ASS) que les impacts sont les plus graves et que les populations sont les plus vulnérables. Les pays développés devraient, dans leur propre intérêt, se concentrer sur les moyens d’aider les pays en développement à éliminer progressivement les combustibles fossiles et à passer aux énergies renouvelables. Cependant, des tensions existent entre les pays les plus riches et les pays les plus pauvres quant à savoir qui doit payer les coûts du réchauffement climatique. Les pays riches ont la responsabilité d’agir plus rapidement que leurs homologues à faible revenu. Pourtant, les gouvernements continuent de subventionner l’utilisation des combustibles fossiles, et les banques et les entreprises investissent encore bien plus dans les industries polluantes que dans les solutions climatiques. Les habitudes de consommation des 10 % les plus riches génèrent trois fois plus de pollution que celles des 50 % les plus pauvres. Les économies émergentes telles que la Chine et l’Inde, qui prévoient d’atteindre zéro émission nette d’ici 2060 et 2070, respectivement, devraient rejoindre le monde développé pour accélérer la réduction de leurs émissions. Ce n’est pas seulement la façon dont nous produisons et utilisons l’énergie qui doit changer rapidement. C'est la façon dont nous consommons la nourriture, la façon dont nous protégeons la nature. C'est tout, partout, à la fois. Le secteur agricole est particulièrement vulnérable, en particulier dans les pays d’ASS où l’agriculture joue un rôle central dans l’économie et la productivité. Parmi les huit pays ayant les émissions nettes cumulées les plus élevées provenant de l’agriculture, de la foresterie et d’autres utilisations des terres figurent deux pays d’ASS, le Nigeria et la République démocratique du Congo. La plupart de ces émissions sont incorporées dans le commerce et sont causées par la consommation dans les régions industrialisées comme l'Europe, les États-Unis et la Chine. Cependant, la création du Fonds pour les pertes et dommages convenu lors de la COP27 ne suffira pas à inverser la tendance, et ne se traduira pas nécessairement par des engagements en matière de financement climatique, compte tenu de l'absence de progrès dans la fourniture des 100 milliards de dollars de financement climatique annuel promis par les pays riches. Les pays africains eux-mêmes doivent réfléchir à leurs propres atouts et intensifier leurs efforts de manière opportune et substantielle. |
| Abstract: | Human activity has transformed the planet at a pace and scale unprecedented in recorded history, causing irreversible damage to communities and ecosystems. Countries have focused their capacities on economic growth, with too little attention to externalities in terms of environmental quality. The world will not avoid catastrophic warming unless wealthy nations accelerate their reduction of own emissions and help poorer countries to do the same. North America and Europe have contributed 62 % of carbon dioxide emissions since the industrial revolution, while Africa has contributed only 3%. However, it is in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that the impacts are most severe and the people most vulnerable. Developed countries, in their own interests, should focus on ways to help developing countries phase out fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy. However, there are tensions between richer and poorer nations over who should pay the costs of global warming. Rich countries have a responsibility to act more quickly than their low-income counterparts. Yet governments continue to subsidise the use of fossil fuels, and banks and companies still invest more in polluting industries than in climate solutions. The consumption habits of the richest 10 % of people generate three times more pollution than those of the poorest 50 %. Emerging economies such as China and India, which plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 and 2070 respectively, should join the developed world in accelerating emissions reductions. It is not just the way we produce and use energy that needs to change quickly. It's the way we consume food, the way we protect nature. It's everything, everywhere, all at once. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable, especially in SSA countries where agriculture is central to the economy. Among the top eight countries with the highest cumulative net emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use are two SSA countries, Nigeria and DR Congo. Most of these emissions are embodied in trade and are caused by consumption in regions such as Europe, the United States and China. The establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund agreed at COP27 will not be enough to turn the tide, nor will it necessarily translate into climate finance commitments, given the lack of progress in delivering the promised US$100 billion in annual climate finance from rich countries. African countries themselves need to reflect on their own strengths and step up their efforts in a timely and substantial way. |
| Keywords: | changement climatique, neutralité carbon, dioxyde de carbon, pollution, Afrique subsaharienne, Afrique du Sud |
| JEL: | E26 F18 F54 F64 G38 H23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:300879 |
| By: | Roussel, Yannick; Audi, Marc |
| Abstract: | The paper delves into the intricate relationship between economic growth, tourism arrivals, and climate change, focusing specifically on the European economy over the period 1990-2019 using panel data analysis. The empirical framework examines the interplay between these variables and sheds light on their implications for environmental sustainability and economic development. The econometric analysis reveals several noteworthy findings. Firstly, the equation assessing economic growth underscores the positive correlation between tourist arrivals, energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, openness to trade, and economic growth. These results align with the prevailing literature, highlighting the multifaceted drivers of economic expansion in the context of tourism and trade. However, the study diverges from conventional wisdom by challenging the notion of a strictly positive correlation between tourism and climate change. While previous research predominantly suggests a positive association, our findings suggest an alternative hypothesis, wherein tourist arrivals exhibit a negative correlation with climate change indicators. This nuanced perspective underscores the complex dynamics at play and emphasizes the need for further investigation into the environmental implications of tourism. Furthermore, the application of fixed effects and GMM-system techniques provides additional insights into the determinants of carbon dioxide emissions. Income per capita and energy consumption emerge as significant drivers of CO2 emissions, highlighting the role of economic prosperity and energy consumption patterns in shaping environmental outcomes. Interestingly, tourism arrivals and squared income per capita demonstrate a negative correlation with CO2 emissions, suggesting that higher levels of tourism and income per capita may mitigate environmental pressures. Additionally, the analysis of tourism arrival determinants reveals that income per capita, openness to trade, and energy consumption exert a positive effect on tourism arrivals. These findings underscore the role of economic prosperity, trade openness, and energy infrastructure in driving tourist inflows, highlighting the interconnectedness of economic and tourism dynamics. The paper contributes to the growing body of literature on the nexus between economic growth, tourism, and climate change, offering valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders. By elucidating the complex relationships between these variables, the study informs evidence-based policy interventions aimed at promoting sustainable tourism practices and mitigating the environmental impact of economic growth. Ultimately, a holistic approach that balances economic development objectives with environmental stewardship is essential for fostering long-term prosperity and sustainability in the European economy and beyond. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Energy Consumption, GMM-System Techniques, Income Per Capita |
| JEL: | C33 O13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:121529 |
| By: | Pollitt, M. G. |
| Abstract: | David Newbery is one of the very best micro-economists that Cambridge has produced in recent decades. David has made many contributions to economics over the years, in development economics, public economics, industrial organization, economic regulation, transport and energy economics. We discuss his work in three general parts. The first focuses on his early work. This includes his work with Nobel Laureate, Joe Stiglitz, on commodity price stabilisation, with Richard Gilbert on patenting and with Nicholas Stern on taxation in developing countries. The second looks at his work on the pricing of transport and energy, particularly with respect to efficient road pricing and optimal energy taxation. This includes work with Nobel Laureate, Eric Maskin, and Larry Karp. The final part reviews his work on liberalised electricity market design, both in terms of the operation of wholesale electricity markets and the regulation of network monopolies. |
| Keywords: | Optimal tax theory; Road User Charges; Energy taxation; Electricity Reform |
| JEL: | H21 R48 Q48 L94 |
| Date: | 2024–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2442 |
| By: | Altavilla, Carlo; Boucinha, Miguel; Pagano, Marco; Polo, Andrea |
| Abstract: | Combining euro-area credit register and carbon emission data, we provide evidence of a climate risk-taking channel in banks’ lending policies. Banks charge higher interest rates to firms featuring greater carbon emissions, and lower rates to firms committing to lower emissions, controlling for their probability of default. Both effects are larger for banks committed to decarbonization. Consistently with the risk-taking channel of monetary policy, tighter policy induces banks to increase both credit risk premia and carbon emission premia, and reduce lending to high emission firms more than to low emission ones. While restrictive monetary policy increases the cost of credit and reduces lending to all firms, its contractionary effect is milder for firms with low emissions and those that commit to decarbonization. JEL Classification: E52, G21, Q52, Q53, Q54, Q58 |
| Keywords: | carbon emissions, climate risk, interest rate, lending, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242969 |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | Menschliche Aktivitäten haben den Planeten in einem in der Geschichte beispiellosen Tempo und Ausmaß verändert und irreversible Schäden an Gemeinschaften und Ökosystemen verursacht. Die Länder haben ihre Kapazitäten auf das Wirtschaftswachstum konzentriert und dabei den damit verbundenen externen Effekten im Hinblick auf die Umweltqualität wenig Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt. Die Welt wird eine katastrophale Erwärmung nicht vermeiden können, wenn wohlhabende Nationen ihre eigenen Emissionsreduzierungen nicht beschleunigen und ärmeren Ländern dabei helfen, dasselbe zu tun. Nordamerika und Europa haben seit der industriellen Revolution 62 % der Kohlendioxidemissionen verursacht, während Afrika nur 3 % beitrug. Allerdings sind die Auswirkungen in Subsahara-Afrika (SSA) am schwerwiegendsten und die Menschen am stärksten gefährdet. Industrieländer sollten sich in ihrem eigenen Interesse darauf konzentrieren, Entwicklungsländern beim Ausstieg aus fossilen Brennstoffen und beim Übergang zu erneuerbaren Energien zu helfen. Es gibt jedoch Spannungen zwischen reicheren und ärmeren Ländern darüber, wer die Kosten der globalen Erwärmung tragen soll. Reiche Länder haben die Verantwortung, schneller zu handeln als ihre einkommensschwachen Länder. Dennoch subventionieren Regierungen weiterhin die Nutzung fossiler Brennstoffe, und Banken und Unternehmen investieren immer noch weitaus mehr in umweltverschmutzende Industrien als in Klimalösungen. Die Konsumgewohnheiten der reichsten 10 % der Menschen verursachen dreimal mehr Umweltverschmutzung als die der ärmsten 50 %. Schwellenländer wie China und Indien, die bis 2060 bzw. 2070 Netto-Null-Emissionen erreichen wollen, sollten sich den Industrieländern anschließen und die Emissionsreduzierung beschleunigen. Nicht nur die Art und Weise, wie wir Energie produzieren und nutzen, muss sich schnell ändern. Es ist die Art und Weise, wie wir Lebensmittel konsumieren, die Art und Weise, wie wir die Natur schützen. Es gilt alles, überall, und alles auf einmal zu ändern. Der Agrarsektor ist besonders gefährdet, insbesondere in SSA-Ländern, in denen die Landwirtschaft für Wirtschaft und Produktivität von zentraler Bedeutung ist. Zu den acht Ländern mit den höchsten kumulierten Nettoemissionen aus Land- und Forstwirtschaft sowie anderer Landnutzung gehören zwei SSA-Länder, Nigeria und die DR Kongo. Die meisten dieser Emissionen sind durch internationalen Handel induziert und werden durch den Konsum in industrialisierten Regionen wie Europa, den Vereinigten Staaten und China verursacht. Allerdings wird die Einrichtung des auf der COP27 vereinbarten Verlust- und Schadensfonds nicht ausreichen, um das Blatt zu wenden. Er wird sich auch nicht zwangsläufig in Verpflichtungen zur Klimafinanzierung niederschlagen, da bei der Bereitstellung der versprochenen jährlichen Klimafinanzierung in Höhe von 100 Milliarden US-Dollar durch die Reichen bisher keine Fortschritte erzielt wurden. Die afrikanischen Länder selbst müssen sich auf ihre eigenen Stärken besinnen und ihre Anstrengungen rechtzeitig und substanziell verstärken. |
| Abstract: | Human activity has transformed the planet at a pace and scale unprecedented in recorded history, causing irreversible damage to communities and ecosystems. Countries have focused their capacities on economic growth, with too little attention to externalities in terms of environmental quality. The world will not avoid catastrophic warming unless wealthy nations accelerate their reduction of own emissions and help poorer countries to do the same. North America and Europe have contributed 62 % of carbon dioxide emissions since the industrial revolution, while Africa has contributed only 3%. However, it is in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) that the impacts are most severe and the people most vulnerable. Developed countries, in their own interests, should focus on ways to help developing countries phase out fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy. However, there are tensions between richer and poorer nations over who should pay the costs of global warming. Rich countries have a responsibility to act more quickly than their low-income counterparts. Yet governments continue to subsidise the use of fossil fuels, and banks and companies still invest more in polluting industries than in climate solutions. The consumption habits of the richest 10 % of people generate three times more pollution than those of the poorest 50 %. Emerging economies such as China and India, which plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060 and 2070 respectively, should join the developed world in accelerating emissions reductions. It is not just the way we produce and use energy that needs to change quickly. It's the way we consume food, the way we protect nature. It's everything, everywhere, all at once. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable, especially in SSA countries where agriculture is central to the economy. Among the top eight countries with the highest cumulative net emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use are two SSA countries, Nigeria and DR Congo. Most of these emissions are embodied in trade and are caused by consumption in regions such as Europe, the United States and China. The establishment of the Loss and Damage Fund agreed at COP27 will not be enough to turn the tide, nor will it necessarily translate into climate finance commitments, given the lack of progress in delivering the promised US$100 billion in annual climate finance from rich countries. African countries themselves need to reflect on their own strengths and step up their efforts in a timely and substantial way. |
| Keywords: | Klimawandel, ökologische Nachhaltigkeit, CO2 Neutralität, Umweltverschmutzung, Subsahara Afrika, Südafrika |
| JEL: | E26 F18 F54 F64 H23 N17 O55 Z13 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:300881 |
| By: | Katarzyna Maciejowska; Weronika Nitka |
| Abstract: | In this article, a multiple split method is proposed that enables construction of multidimensional probabilistic forecasts of a selected set of variables. The method uses repeated resampling to estimate uncertainty of simultaneous multivariate predictions. This nonparametric approach links the gap between point and probabilistic predictions and can be combined with different point forecasting methods. The performance of the method is evaluated with data describing the German short-term electricity market. The results show that the proposed approach provides highly accurate predictions. The gains from multidimensional forecasting are the largest when functions of variables, such as price spread or residual load, are considered. Finally, the method is used to support a decision process of a moderate generation utility that produces electricity from wind energy and sells it on either a day-ahead or an intraday market. The company makes decisions under high uncertainty because it knows neither the future production level nor the prices. We show that joint forecasting of both market prices and fundamentals can be used to predict the distribution of a profit, and hence helps to design a strategy that balances a level of income and a trading risk. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.07795 |
| By: | Lu, Xinyu (HEC Paris); Spaenjers, Christophe (University of Colorado Boulder - Leeds School of Business) |
| Abstract: | We propose that home buyers and sellers rely on “heuristic hedonic models”: simplified representations of properties’ utility-bearing attributes. We test this hypothesis using public administrative data from France, where properties’ (continuous) estimated energy consumption is summarized by a (discrete) energy label on a scale from A to G. We document substantial misreporting-driven bunching of energy efficiency scores just below the relevant cut-off values, which points to labels’ perceived importance. Estimates of donut RDD models show that house prices drop sharply when energy consumption crosses the boundary to a lower rating. Moreover, we observe larger price discontinuities in areas where the relation between energy efficiency and house values is harder to estimate. Finally, the discontinuities also show up in home sellers’ list prices, suggesting that a simple buyer inattention story is insufficient to explain our findings. |
| Keywords: | energy efficiency; energy labels; house prices; hedonic models; bunching. |
| JEL: | D12 D83 Q58 R12 R28 |
| Date: | 2023–04–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1483 |
| By: | Arnab Bhattacharjee; Max Mosley; Adrian Pabst |
| Abstract: | Transforming the single point Energy Price Cap into a variable (or sliding) price cap where the price per unit of energy used increases with usage would help solving the cost-of-living crisis, according to latest research by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The effect of such sliding price cap would be to reduce energy bills for lower-income households in the country while higher earners, who consume more energy, bear a commensurate share of the higher costs. As energy use is strongly correlated with household income, making units of energy more expensive for those who use it the most affects higher-income households while making usage cheaper for lower-income households. When compared to other policy proposals – specifically freezing energy bills – our proposal has a number of advantages. First of all, it is more cost effective as freezing energy bills has been predicted to cost around £100bn over the winter period. Although there is evidence to suggest that such a substantial approach is affordable, we propose a way to achieve the same goal without such a cost to the Exchequer and ultimately the taxpayer. |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrp:34 |
| By: | Feld, Lars P.; Hassib, Joshua |
| Abstract: | Cohesion policy in the European Union (EU) has been widely accepted as a tool to advance the catch-up process, i.e., helping member countries with lower GDP per capita to grow faster economically in order to arrive at similarly high-income levels as member countries with higher GDP per capita. However, empirical studies provide contradicting evidence as to the success of structural funds in this regard. From a political economics perspective, EU structural funds and their instruments of cohesion policy, but also EU agricultural policy, are interpreted as providing for a compensation for poorer member countries' agreement on additional steps of European integration. In recent times, climate policy has entered the cohesion strategy of the EU as higher energy costs due to carbon pricing may require programs for transformation of the existing carbon intensive capital stock to a carbon-neutral capital stock. Structural funds should thus help countries in the transformation process to carbon neutrality such that they do not fall behind. An example is Next Generation EU (NGEU) that is aiming at member countries' transition to carbon neutrality. In this paper, the goals of EU cohesion policy are contrasted with the necessities of climate policy in order to fight climate change. Potential conflicts between the goals of cohesion policy and climate policy are highlighted. |
| Keywords: | Cohesion policy, Climate policy, Common market, Currency union, Multi-level governance, European Union |
| JEL: | F42 F55 Q58 R58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:300672 |
| By: | Alistair Milne |
| Abstract: | Supply disruptions, in particular the reduced supply of gas following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has triggered the major energy crisis across all of Europe. This threatens a severe economic downturn with substantially reduced real incomes, widespread business closures and – especially in the UK with its heavy reliance on natural gas for domestic heating – many households pushed into 'fuel poverty', choosing between adequate nutrition and heating for their homes. This note discusses the economic mechanisms driving this crisis and the policy tools available to address it. The principal message is that in a crisis such as this quantities matter. The new UK government is introducing a near complete suspension of price mechanism in domestic energy markets, freezing both household and wholesale prices. Government across Europe will take similar measures. These seem necessary to protect households and businesses. But they are only sticky plasters. There is a near-binding constraint on the overall supply of gas in Europe. Without prices allocating supply, further measures are needed to decide who gets how much gas. So, the policy response must address quantities, turning to administrative management of the physical flows of gas, to secure supply and reduce demand (through public appeal, voluntary proposed consumption reductions and where unavoidable rationing). In practical terms this means, going beyond the price caps (i) negotiating, bilaterally, with Norway as the principal supplier of gas to Europe to ensure energy security, obtaining allocations of gas at below elevated wholesale market prices; and (ii) within the resulting envelope of supply, implement standing plans e.g. in the UK those of BEIS and the National Grid, for allocating limited energy resources in a supply crisis. From the policies announced and discussed so far it appears that the UK government, and its counterparts across Europe, believe that the physical deficit of energy in Europe can be closed by spending unlimited amounts of money. But the underlying problem is a shortage of physical supply. Spending more money, without controlling quantity, drives prices ever higher. This policy stance is reminiscent of the Major government in Black Wednesday 1992. Like that policy it is not sustainable. Turning to administrative management of the quantities of gas deals directly with the supply deficit and will bring the cost of energy closer to normal levels. This is not without economic costs. Low priority consumers will consume less gas than they would like to purchase. Imports of liquid natural gas LNG must still be paid for at a premium price. But much less money than currently announced is needed for protecting households and businesses. No need to burden the taxpayer. |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrp:35 |
| By: | Somit Dasgupta (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)) |
| Abstract: | This working paper examines as to what is the ideal parameter for decommissioning of coal-based generation. Is it the age of the plant, its station heat rate (SHR) or any other parameter? It also examines whether it would be possible for India to undertake this energy transition easily so as to become net-zero by 2070. |
| Keywords: | Coal, Decommissioning, Renewable, Coal-plants |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:wpaper:421 |
| By: | Monika Zimmermann; Florian Ziel |
| Abstract: | Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent uncertainty. Most importantly, these forecasts are essential for the operational management of power plants, ensuring supply security and grid stability, and in guiding energy trading and investment decisions. The primary challenge for this forecasting task lies in disentangling the multifaceted drivers of load, which include national deterministic (daily, weekly, annual, and holiday patterns) and national stochastic weather and autoregressive effects. Additionally, transnational stochastic socio-economic and political effects add further complexity, in particular, due to their non-stationarity. To address this challenge, we present an interpretable probabilistic mid-term forecasting model for the hourly load that captures, besides all deterministic effects, the various uncertainties in load. This model recognizes transnational dependencies across 24 European countries, with multivariate modeled socio-economic and political states and cross-country dependent forecasting. Built from interpretable Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), the model enables an analysis of the transmission of each incorporated effect to the hour-specific load. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of countries reliant on electric heating under extreme weather scenarios. This emphasizes the need for high-resolution forecasting of weather effects on pan-European electricity consumption especially in anticipation of widespread electric heating adoption. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.00507 |
| By: | Tom Brown; Fabian Neumann; Iegor Riepin |
| Abstract: | Studies looking at electricity market designs for very high shares of wind and solar often conclude that the energy-only market will break down. Without fuel costs, it is said that there is nothing to set prices. Symptoms of breakdown include long phases of zero prices, scarcity prices too high to be politically acceptable, prices that collapse under small perturbations of capacities from the long-term equilibrium, cost recovery that is impossible due to low market values, high variability of revenue between different weather years, and difficulty operating long-term storage with limited foresight. We argue that all these problems are an artefact of modeling with perfectly inelastic demand. If short-term elasticity to reflect today's flexible demand (-5%) is implemented in the model, these problems are significantly reduced. The combined interaction of demand willingness to pay and storage opportunity costs is enough to produce stable pricing. This behavior is illustrated by a model with wind, solar, batteries, and hydrogen-based storage, where a piecewise linear demand curve removes high price peaks and reduces the fraction of zero-price hours from 90% to around 30%, and entails more price stability for perturbations of capacity and different weather years. Furthermore, we show that with elastic demand, the long-term model exactly reproduces the prices of the short-term model with the same capacities. We then use insights from the long-term model to derive simple bidding strategies for storage so that we can also run the short-term model with limited operational foresight. We demonstrate this short-term operation in a model trained on 35 years of weather data and tested on another 35 years of unseen data. We conclude that the energy-only market can still play a key role in coordinating dispatch and investment in the future. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.21409 |
| By: | Kaldorf, Matthias; Rottner, Matthias |
| Abstract: | Does a shift to ambitious climate policy increase financial fragility? In this paper, we develop a quantitative macroeconomic model with carbon taxes and endogenous financial crises to study such "Climate Minsky Moments". By reducing asset returns, an accelerated transition to net zero exerts deleveraging pressure on the financial sector, initially elevating the financial crisis probability substantially. However, carbon taxes improve long-run financial stability since permanently lower asset returns reduce the buildup of excessive leverage. Quantitatively, we find that the net financial stability effect of ambitious climate policy is positive for low but empirically plausible social discount rates. |
| Keywords: | Climate Policy, Financial Stability, Financial Crises, Transition Risk |
| JEL: | E32 E44 G20 Q52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:300701 |
| By: | Lutz Sager |
| Abstract: | Air pollution generates vast health burdens and economic costs around the world. Pollution exposure varies greatly, both between countries and within them. But the degree of air quality inequality and its’ trajectory have not been quantified at a global level. I use economic inequality indices to measure global inequality in exposure to ambient fine particles smaller than 2.5 microns (PM2.5). I find high and rising levels of global air quality inequality. The global PM2.5 Gini Index rose from 0.30 in 2000 to 0.35 in 2020, exceeding levels of income inequality in many countries. Air quality inequality is mostly driven by differences between countries and less so by variation within them, as decomposition analysis shows. A large share of those facing the highest levels of PM2.5 exposure live in only a few countries. Building on the Global Burden of Disease framework, I find that mortality associated with PM2.5 exposure is even more unequal than pollution exposure itself. The findings suggest that the common focus on inequality within countries overlooks an important global dimension of environmental justice. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, inequality, health, environmental justice |
| JEL: | D63 I14 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11210 |
| By: | Dhaka, Surjeet Singh; Kyire, Samuel Kwabena Chaa; Asare, Jeffery Kofi |
| Abstract: | Climate change has become a global burden. In part, technological innovations (TIs), foreign direct investments (FDIs), and agricultural growth are potential factors contributing to overall emissions. However, empirical evidence on the interplay of these variables on CO2 emissions is rare in literature, particularly for BRICS countries, which is essential to investigate. In this quest, we sourced panel data obtained from World Development Indicators and FAO repositories. We found cross-sectional dependency in the panel data. Hence, the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (Pooled Mean Group regression) was used to analyse the short-run and long-run relationship. We found a long-run negative effect of TI on CO2 emissions, but no short-run effect was observed. Likewise, agricultural growth had positive significant effect on CO2 emissions only in the long-run. The Granger Causality test confirmed a causal relationship between agricultural growth, TI, and CO2 emissions in the BRICS countries. We recommend that BRICS countries should invest in innovative technologies, especially those that facilitate green production and renewable technologies to minimize greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, there is a need to embrace sustainable agricultural practices like tree-crop plantations, sustainable production technologies, and less-carbon-emitting inputs used to minimize the emissions from agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344316 |
| By: | Gianmarco Del Sarto; Marta Leocata; Giulia Livieri |
| Abstract: | We develop a model based on mean-field games of competitive firms producing similar goods according to a standard AK model with a depreciation rate of capital generating pollution as a byproduct. Our analysis focuses on the widely-used cap-and-trade pollution regulation. Under this regulation, firms have the flexibility to respond by implementing pollution abatement, reducing output, and participating in emission trading, while a regulator dynamically allocates emission allowances to each firm. The resulting mean-field game is of linear quadratic type and equivalent to a mean-field type control problem, i.e., it is a potential game. We find explicit solutions to this problem through the solutions to differential equations of Riccati type. Further, we investigate the carbon emission equilibrium price that satisfies the market clearing condition and find a specific form of FBSDE of McKean-Vlasov type with common noise. The solution to this equation provides an approximate equilibrium price. Additionally, we demonstrate that the degree of competition is vital in determining the economic consequences of pollution regulation. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.12754 |
| By: | Skyrman, Viktor |
| Abstract: | To address Europe's environmental, economic, and geopolitical challenges, the European Commission has decided to proactively accelerate digital transformation and decarbonization through industrial policies. As the annual green investment gap exceeds 2 percent of the EU's GDP, of particular relevance is not least how the EU's industrial programs will be financed. Amid scarce fiscal resources and public sector austerity, paradigmatic cases of (financial) derisking aiming to "escort" private finance to green but unprofitable investments have been key to European policymakers' aim to accelerate the green transition. This paper offers two contributions in this context. Firstly, it examines to what extent and how finance for industrial policy has been provided in Europe since the early 2020s. Secondly, it conceptually advances the political economy of derisking literature by elaborating on progressive derisking and Big Green State policies as alternative industrial policy financing programs, and discusses those programs in relation to Europe's macrofinancial regime. |
| Keywords: | Industrial policy, derisking, macrofinancial regimes, climate change, the green transition, digital transformation, European policy studies, political economy, development finance, financialization |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:oefsew:300846 |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | L'Union européenne (UE) se trouve confrontée à un besoin critique de terres rares, en particulier de produits raffinés essentiels à la production de voitures électriques, de turbines et d'autres applications technologiques. Cependant, le processus de raffinage est non seulement énergivore, mais pose également des risques environnementaux importants. Par conséquent, les communautés locales, comme en témoignent les exemples en Espagne et au Portugal, s'opposent avec véhémence à de telles opérations dans leur voisinage, préconisant une politique du « chacun pour soi ». L’UE dépend actuellement fortement de la Chine, qui contrôle la majorité de la transformation mondiale, avec 90 % de toutes les terres rares et 60 % du lithium. En réponse à ces défis, l’UE a franchi une étape cruciale en novembre 2023 en concluant un accord préliminaire sur la loi européenne sur les matières premières critiques (CRMA). Cette initiative législative vise à améliorer et à diversifier l'approvisionnement de l'UE en matières premières critiques (CRM), à favoriser l'économie circulaire, à renforcer l'autonomie stratégique de l'Europe et à explorer des alternatives pour atténuer la dépendance. Les récentes crises transnationales, notamment les perturbations des chaînes d'approvisionnement lors de la pandémie de COVID-19 et l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie, soulignent l'impératif de garantir des chaînes d'approvisionnement sécurisées dans tous les secteurs économiques. Ces crises soulignent également l’influence considérable exercée par les principales économies émergentes, notamment les pays BRICS (Brésil, Russie, Inde, Chine et Afrique du Sud), qui dominent les principales chaînes d’approvisionnement mondiales, notamment celles des matières premières critiques (CRM). La Russie joue un rôle central en tant que l'un des plus grands fournisseurs mondiaux de palladium (40 % de l'offre mondiale), le deuxième fournisseur de platine (13 %) et de nickel (12 %) et un contributeur substantiel d'aluminium et de cuivre. En outre, la Russie possède le potentiel de devenir un acteur majeur sur le marché des terres rares grâce à ses vastes réserves. Le pays représente également une part considérable des acquisitions de l'UE, notamment le palladium (41 %), le platine (16 %), le cobalt (5 %) et le lithium (4 %). La Russie est notamment la principale source de l'UE pour la transformation des métaux du groupe du platine (iridium, platine, rhodium, ruthénium ; 40 %), l'extraction de la roche phosphatée (20 %), la transformation du lithium (4 %) et la transformation du scandium (1 %). Pour parvenir à une plus grande indépendance en matière de fourniture externe de CRM, l’UE doit réaliser des investissements importants dans ses installations d’extraction et de transformation. Cependant, l’exploitation minière ne représente que la phase initiale ; les étapes suivantes impliquent la séparation des éléments de terres rares (REE) des oxydes, le raffinage et le forgeage d'alliages, un processus complexe, hautement spécialisé et en plusieurs étapes. À cet égard, les nouveaux arrivants comme l’Europe sont à la traîne, la Chine ayant consolidé sa position dominante à chaque étape grâce à une stratégie industrielle concertée à long terme soutenue par des subventions publiques. |
| Abstract: | The European Union (EU) finds itself in a critical need for rare earths, particularly the refined products essential for the production of electric cars, turbines, and other technological applications. However, the refining process is not only energy-intensive but also poses significant environmental risks. Consequently, local communities, as evidenced by instances in Spain and Portugal, vehemently oppose having such operations in their vicinity, advocating a "beggar thy neighbour" policy. The EU currently relies heavily on China, which controls the majority of global processing, commanding 90% of all rare earths and 60% of lithium. In response to these challenges, the EU took a crucial step in November 2023 by reaching a preliminary agreement on the European Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA). This legislative initiative aims to enhance and diversify the EU's supply of critical raw materials (CRM), foster the circular economy, fortify Europe's strategic autonomy, and explore alternatives to mitigate dependence. Recent transnational crises, including disruptions to supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, underscore the imperative of secure supply chains across all economic sectors. These crises also underscore the significant influence wielded by major emerging economies, notably the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), which dominate key global supply chains, including those for critical raw materials (CRMs). Russia plays a pivotal role as one of the world's largest suppliers of palladium (40% of global supply), the second-largest supplier of platinum (13%) and nickel (12%), and a substantial contributor of aluminium and copper. Furthermore, Russia possesses the potential to emerge as a major player in the rare earths market due to its extensive reserves. The country also accounts for a considerable share of the EU's acquisitions, including palladium (41%), platinum (16%), cobalt (5%), and lithium (4%). Notably, Russia serves as the primary EU source for platinum group metals processing (iridium, platinum, rhodium, ruthenium; 40%), phosphate rock extraction (20%), lithium processing (4%), and scandium processing (1%). To attain greater independence in external CRM provision, the EU must make significant investments in its mining and processing facilities. However, mining represents merely the initial phase; subsequent steps involve the separation of rare earth elements (REE) from oxides, refining, and alloy forging a complex, highly specialized, multi-stage process. In this regard, relative newcomers like Europe lag behind, as China has solidified its dominant position in each phase through a concerted, long-term industrial strategy supported by state subsidies |
| Keywords: | terres rares, transition énergétique, changement climatique, pollution |
| JEL: | D24 D43 D52 E23 F18 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:300883 |
| By: | Guarascio, Dario; Reljic, Jelena; Zezza, Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses energy vulnerability and resilience in the EU. First, a comprehensive review of the relevant literature is carried out, discussing key concepts and indicators used to assess countries' relative positioning vis-à-vis energy shocks. Second, we rely on a large set of indicators (i.e., share of energy intensive industries, import dependency and market concentration, productive and technological capabilities in the renewables domain, policy efforts to increase energy resilience) to provide a thorough mapping of the EU Member States positioning in terms of energy vulnerability and resilience. Third, we assess industrial and energy policy actions put in place at both the EU and the national level, highlighting relevant heterogeneities and discussing whether policy efforts are consistent with the degree of vulnerability of Member States. |
| Keywords: | Energy vulnerability, resilience, Europe, industrial policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:oefsew:300845 |
| By: | Thiemo Fetzer |
| Abstract: | In response to the energy crisis amidst a wider cost of living crisis (see Harari et al, 2022), the UK government put in place the Energy Price Guarantee (EPG) on 8 Sept 2022, which caps the unit price of energy for all consumers. This policy is now, following a statement by the new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt on 17 Oct 2022, due to remain in place until April 2023 after which new longer-term policies for supporting consumers will be considered. In advance of the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan, set for 31 October, this briefing outlines the main shortcomings of the EPG and proposes alternative measures to address these issues. |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrp:36 |
| By: | Brinkord, Marlen; Elsasser, Peter; Seintsch, Björn |
| Abstract: | Die Einschätzung der potenziellen Kohlenstoff-Speicherleistung in Wäldern stellt für Praktiker häufig eine Herausforderung dar. Um eine näherungsweise Orientierung zu ermöglichen, wurden die gängigen Ertragstafeln nach Schober für die Hauptwirtschaftsbaumarten Fichte, Buche, Kiefer, Eiche und Douglasie so aufbereitet, dass die in den Beständen gebundenen Kohlenstoffvorräte (und ihre Veränderungen) unmittelbar in Tonnen CO2 pro Hektar ablesbar sind und auch über frühe Jugendphasen Auskunft geben. Dabei wurde so weit wie möglich den international festgelegten Berechnungsvorgaben gefolgt, wie sie auch für die jährlich erscheinenden Nationalen Inventarberichte zum Deutschen Treibhausgasinventar verbindlich sind. Die Kohlenstoff-Ertragstafeln stellen ein nützliches Instrument dar, welches eine einfache und unkomplizierte Schätzung der CO2-Speicherung im Wald ermöglicht. Dadurch wird eine praxisnahe Herangehensweise an die Herausforderungen der Kohlenstoffbilanzierung im Wald erleichtert. |
| Abstract: | Practitioners often face challenges when estimating the carbon storage potential of forests. In order to provide an approximate orientation, the common yield tables according to Schober for the five main economic tree species in Germany: (spruce, beech, pine, oak, and Douglas fir) have been prepared in such a way that the carbon stocks bound in the stands (and their changes) can be read directly in tons of CO2 per hectare, and that they also provide information on early juvenile phases. These carbon yield tables can serve as a useful tool that enables a simple and straightforward estimation of the forest's potential to bind CO2. This facilitates a pragmatic approach to the challenges of carbon accounting in forests. |
| Keywords: | Kohlenstoffbilanzierung, Ertragstafeln, CO2, Klimawandel, Carbon accounting, yield tables, climate change |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:jhtiwp:300636 |
| By: | Pollitt, M. G.; Duma, D.; Covatariu, A. |
| Abstract: | In this paper we focus on suggestions on how energy regulation needs to change in the light of the likely ongoing and possibly increasing uncertainty which the path to net zero involves. We argue that there are things that regulators can do in the circumstances (and that their governments could encourage them to do). We begin with a discussion of the uncertainty problem of regulation on the path to net zero. Next, we consider what regulation for net zero should focus on. We then move on to the role of regulation within the national governance system for the energy sector. After this we outline how best practice regulation should evolve in the light of both theory and experience. Theories of regulation suggest key roles for both learning and for trade-offs in regulation. We advocate for the development of a ‘learning regulator’ which simultaneously learns from the past (dynamic regulation), in the present (responsive regulation) and anticipates future learning points (adaptive regulation). While current best practice regulation involves the first two types of learning, the third remains a work in progress. Finally, we introduce some possible regulatory lessons from other sectors, namely water, autonomous vehicles and airports. |
| Keywords: | Uncertainty, energy regulation, net zero |
| JEL: | L51 L94 |
| Date: | 2024–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2444 |
| By: | Xinfu Chen; Yuchao Dong; Wenlin Huang; Jin Liang |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we consider a company can simultaneously reduce its emissions and buy carbon allowances at any time. We establish an optimal control model involving two stochastic processes with two control variables, which is a singular control problem. This model can then be converted into a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, which is a two-dimensional variational equality with gradient barrier, so that the free boundary is a surface. We prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution. Finally, some numerical results are shown. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.08477 |
| By: | Ignacio Presno; Andrea Prestipino |
| Abstract: | The 2022 inflation surge has renewed interest in the drivers of inflation, with special attention on the role of oil and other commodity prices given the large increase in these prices post-pandemic. In this note, we use a DSGE model of the global economy to quantify the impact on U.S. inflation and output of the oil shocks that drove oil prices up by about $45 per barrel in the first half of 2022, around Russia's invasion of Ukraine. |
| Date: | 2024–08–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2024-08-02-3 |
| By: | Afiq bin Oslan |
| Abstract: | Political science has used natural disasters to study whether voters are sensitive to the environment. The complex nature of disasters, however, can present obstacles to causal identification. In this study, we look at a uniquely and overtly human-caused disaster—earthquakes from natural gas drilling in the Netherlands—to see whether these disasters persuade citizens to vote more environmentally. We combine polling station-level voting data with precisely calculated measures of earthquake impact, and we find that pro-environmental party vote share is generally higher in affected locations. These findings provide further support for the theory that environmental damage strengthens the preference for green parties, a relationship that will only become more important as human destruction of the environment worsens. |
| Keywords: | environmental politics, Green parties, natural disasters, exogenousvshocks |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpi:wpaper:tax-mpg-rps-2023-21 |
| By: | Brückbauer, Frank; Kirschenmann, Karolin |
| Abstract: | Ongoing global trends like climate change require firms to invest in projects that support their transformation. In order to unlock the huge sums of private capital necessary for these investments, the engagement of institutional investors appears to be crucial. In a project funded by ZEW's Sponsors' Association, we investigate whether and how a better integration of the European banking system and capital markets can be an effective short- and medium-term solution to unleash the financial sector's potential in supporting the green transformation. Capital markets can support bank lending by financing assets on- and off-balance-sheet. Securitizations allow institutional investors to directly invest into cash flows from specific assets. Our analysis shows that the current market potential of European securitizations is much smaller than wished for and that the securitization model envisaged by the Capital Markets Union (CMU) project does not seem to fit the European context. Instead, policymakers should embrace a realistic view on the market potential of European securitizations. They also need to be clear in their communication about the trade-offs between unconventional central bank policies and the development of securitization markets. Additionally, they should closely watch the incentives that come with the new non-financial reporting indicators for banks regarding securitization. Most importantly, to accelerate the green transition, policymakers need to encourage the necessary private real investments in the first place by creating a conducive economic environment and the right incentives. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:300833 |
| By: | Simon Hirsch; Jonathan Berrisch; Florian Ziel |
| Abstract: | Large-scale streaming data are common in modern machine learning applications and have led to the development of online learning algorithms. Many fields, such as supply chain management, weather and meteorology, energy markets, and finance, have pivoted towards using probabilistic forecasts, which yields the need not only for accurate learning of the expected value but also for learning the conditional heteroskedasticity. Against this backdrop, we present a methodology for online estimation of regularized linear distributional models for conditional heteroskedasticity. The proposed algorithm is based on a combination of recent developments for the online estimation of LASSO models and the well-known GAMLSS framework. We provide a case study on day-ahead electricity price forecasting, in which we show the competitive performance of the adaptive estimation combined with strongly reduced computational effort. Our algorithms are implemented in a computationally efficient Python package. |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.08750 |
| By: | Peter Doyle |
| Abstract: | The 2050 Global Target Framework needs to be reformulated and supplemented by Hard Intermediate Targets. And two global fiscal instruments are needed—neither of which is a carbon tax—to secure an efficient global strategy to deliver it. |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsr:niesrp:37 |
| By: | Hale, Galina; Meisenbacher, Brigid; Nechio, Fernanda |
| Abstract: | In the past two decades, a number of banks joined global initiatives aimed to mitigate climate change by “greening” their asset portfolios. We study whether banks that made such commitments have a different emission exposure of their portfolios of syndicated loans than banks that did not. We rely on loan-level information with global coverage combined with country-industry information on emissions. We find that all banks have reduced their loan-emission exposures over the last 8 years. However, we do not find differences between banks that did and those that did not signal their sustainability goals, with the exception of early signers of Principles of Responsible Investments (PRI), who already had lower exposure to emissions through their syndicated lending. In addition, banks that signed PRI shortened the maturity of the loans extended to highly-emitting industries but only temporarily. Thus, we conclude that banks reduced their exposure to climate transition risks on average, but voluntary climate commitments did not contribute to syndicated loan reallocation away from highly-emitting sectors. |
| Keywords: | Economics, Banking, Finance and Investment, Applied Economics, Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services, Climate Action |
| Date: | 2024–07–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:ucscec:qt16x0k16m |
| By: | Gupta, Disha |
| Abstract: | There has been a declining trend in groundwater depths in India and subsidies on farm electricity contributes to over-extraction of groundwater raising concerns about its sustainability for irrigation. In this paper, we estimate the reduction in groundwater pumping under volumetric pricing of farm electricity for Punjab where farm electricity is free. We use parcel-level cost of cultivation data from Ministry of Agriculture for 2011-12 to 2013-14 to estimate the production function for paddy using instrumental variable approach. We find that the estimated marginal product of water function is relatively flat at the level of the average water application. The average marginal product of water is 32 kilograms for additional thousand cubic meters of water per hectare, which is very low. Simulations show that increasing the price of electricity from current level of zero to the true cost of electricity supply leads to sharp cutbacks of 59 percent in water extraction using electric pumps. However, the decline in average paddy yields is 11 percent. We show welfare gains in terms of reduction of the deadweight loss under volumetric pricing. Finally, we quantify average lump-sum subsidy that can be given to farmers as direct transfers to keep their surplus unchanged and we show that this can be financed using collections done by state electricity board from pricing electricity. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cfcp15:344328 |
| By: | Ferguson, Beth; Sanguinetti, Angela |
| Abstract: | Micromobility—including bicycles, electric bicycles, and electric scooters—is well-suited to address first- and last-mile connectivity with public transit by bridging the gaps of service for riders. This extends the geographic region where residents are likely to access and exit a transit station, facilitating access to more jobs, services, and recreation. However, public use of micromobility depends on a variety of factors. These include availability of secure parking facilities or other environmental design features at and around public transit stations. UC Davis researchers and urban design experts considered these issues in a case study of the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) heavy rail system. The study included environmental audits at 18 BART stations. The study also hosted an online survey of BART and micromobility users and included interviews with government, industry, and community stakeholders. This policy brief summarizes the findings from this study and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, access, bicycles, micromobility, public transit, rail transit stations, scooters, surveys |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4x38j8p1 |
| By: | Giller, James; Compostella, Junia; Iogansen, Xiatian; Young, Mischa; Circella, Giovanni |
| Abstract: | Transportation Network Companies (TNCs), also referred to as ridehailing companies, have experienced rapid growth in the past decade. This report focuses on the quickly evolving transportation patterns resulting from the adoption of ridehailing as part of the efforts accompanying the implementation of the Clean Miles Standard (CMS) regulation. Based on the analysis of survey data collected in four California metropolitan regions before the COVID-19 pandemic, this report summarizes the findings from three studies, focusing on (1) the use of ridehailing among traveler groups with different multimodal travel patterns, (2) the substitution of ridehailing for other modes, and travel induced by ridehailing, and (3) the use of pooled ridehailing services, in which multiple passengers share the same vehicle for all or a portion of their trips. The results from these analyses reveal that transit users are more likely to be ridehailing users. Individuals without a household vehicle and identifying with an underrepresented minority group are more likely to use ridehailing for essential (rather than for discretionary trip) purposes. Over 50% of the ridehailing trips replaced a transit, active, or carpooling trip, or created new vehicle miles. Lower-income individuals, people of color, females, and younger individuals are more likely to choose pooled ridehailing over the single-user ridehailing service. Trips that originate in high-density areas are also more likely to be pooled. Furthermore, being a frequent ridehailing user is associated with greater use of pooled ridehailing, whereas not having to pay for a trip (e.g., a work-related trip paid for by an employer) reduces the likelihood of pooling. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Ridehailing, modal substitution, modal replacement, pooled ridehailing, shared ridehailing, Transportation Network Companies (TNC) |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1x6982gf |
| By: | Marco Sebastian Breder; Arnd Hofmann; Michael Bucksteeg; Christoph Weber (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen) |
| Abstract: | Electromobility has achieved a significant breakthrough in recent years, and numerous studies have been carried out in this field. However, the focus has mainly been on technical aspects, and current economic analyses and derived policy implications are based on these technical aspects. With the rising share of electric vehicles, the importance of efficient coordination and their integration into power systems and markets is increasing. This depends, above all, on the behavior of consumers, who make a series of decisions ranging from purchase and usage to disposal. Although there is a large variety of consumer research on electromobility, related reviews primarily focus on distinct aspects, such as acceptance, usage behavior, or incentives. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of research, with a clear separation of behavioral aspects. To this end, we summarize the different elements of current efforts in the field: the research on purchasing, tariff choice, charging, and driving. There are few studies on tariff choice between 2016 and 2023, while most of the published articles have focused on charging. Unexpectedly, the citation frequency for articles published in 2016 is lower than that of articles published in 2017 and 2018. This might indicate the growing importance of behavioral research on electromobility. The identified research gaps call for further research on tariff design and associated interactions at the system level to further develop the markets and leverage the potential of integrating electromobility into power systems. The latter concerns economic potential, such as avoiding grid expansion through smart tariffs or technical potential in the context of system services. |
| Keywords: | review, electromobility, consumer, economics, behavioral economics |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dui:wpaper:2405 |
| By: | Heyen, Daniel; Tavoni, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | Solar geoengineering denotes a set of technologies that would enable a fast and relatively cheap global temperature reduction. Besides potential physical side-effects, a major concern is the strategic dimension: Who is going to use solar geoengineering and how would it affect others? How does the presence of solar geoengineering change the strategic incentives surrounding other climate policy instruments such as mitigation? We review the existing theoretical and experimental contributions to those questions and outline promising lines of future economic research. |
| Keywords: | Climate policy; Experiments; political economy; public goods; solar geoengineering; strategic interaction |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:124448 |
| By: | Haroon Bhorat; Tsungai Kupeta; Lisa Martin; Francois Steenkamp (Development Policy Research Unit, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide a robust quantitative estimate of jobs – both direct and indirect – associated with the coal sector in South Africa, and in so doing, explore the labour market profile and characteristics of the individuals and households linked to the coal sector. In particular, we are interested in the size and shape of the coal labour market. Understanding the labour market implications associated with a transition is pivotal in shaping policy decisions linked to the just transition. This paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate surrounding the just transition in South Africa, by carefully deriving a robust empirical estimate of the coal labour market in South Africa, and the related coal-based electrical utility industry in Mpumalanga. These initial empirical insights into the size and shape of the coal labour market can inform the scale and scope of these policy interventions. Given the heterogenous nature of the labour market, a diverse suite of policy interventions is likely to be required. |
| Keywords: | Just transition, coal industry, labour market profile, South Africa, employment, Mpumalanga, Renewable Energy Transition |
| JEL: | O13 J21 L71 N57 N77 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:202402 |
| By: | Ozbilen, Basar; Gulhare, Siddhartha; Makino, Keita; Jena, Aurojeet; Iogansen, Xiatian; Loa, Patrick; Lee, Yongsung; Malik, Jai; Circella, Giovanni |
| Abstract: | During the early months of the pandemic, stay-at-home orders and concerns about infection catalyzed a shift toward online activities, such as remote work and e-shopping, resulting in a significant decrease in conventional travel. However, as the effects of the pandemic diminished, the pandemic-induced online activities began to subside, and conventional travel started to rebound. The challenge among transportation planners and policymakers is to determine the lasting effects of the pandemic and adjust the policies accordingly. In the same efforts to understand the evolving travel-related activities and inform policymaking, the 3 Revolutions Future Mobility Program at the University of California, Davis, conducted four waves of mobility surveys between Spring 2020 and Fall 2023. Key findings from the analysis of these data reveal that remote work and a combination of remote work and physical commuting (i.e., hybrid work) emerge as an enduring outcome of the pandemic. The pandemic accelerated the rise of e-shopping, both for grocery and non-grocery purchases, with findings demonstrating the critical influence of socio-demographic factors, including age, gender, and income, on e-shopping adoption and frequency. The findings show that socio-demographic factors such as work status, income level, and work arrangements are associated with household vehicle ownership changes and individual vehicle miles traveled (VMT). In particular, an increase in commute frequency reduces the likelihood of vehicle shedding, while amplifying the likelihood of vehicle acquisition. In the meantime, remote workers exhibit lower commuting VMT but higher non-commuting VMT compared to hybrid workers. The findings demonstrate a similarity between the percentage of respondents who used public transit, bikes, e-bikes, and e-scooters for commuting and non-commuting trips to some degree between 2019 and 2023. These insights underscore that adapting to shifting activity and transportation patterns is crucial for policymakers and planners to build a sustainable and inclusive post-pandemic future. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Travel Behavior, COVID-19 Pandemic, Remote Work, Hybrid Work, Online Shopping, Shared Mobility, Vehicle Ownership, Vehicle Miles Traveled, Longitudinal Data |
| Date: | 2024–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt59x3z9zb |
| By: | Peyman Khezr |
| Abstract: | Secondary markets and resale are integral components of all emission trading systems. Despite the justification for these secondary trades, such as unpredictable demand, they may encourage speculation and result in the misallocation of permits. In this paper, our aim is to underscore the importance of efficiency in the initial allocation mechanism and to explore how concerns leading to the establishment of secondary markets, such as uncertain demand, can be addressed through alternative means, such as frequent auctions. We demonstrate that the existence of a secondary market could lead to higher untruthful bids in the auction, further encouraging speculation and the accumulation of rent. Our results suggest that an inefficient initial allocation could enable speculators with no use value for the permits to bid in the auction and subsequently earn rents in secondary markets by trading these permits. Even if the secondary market operates efficiently, the resulting rent, which represents a potential loss of auction revenue, cannot be overlooked. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.07386 |
| By: | Müller, Lukas |
| Abstract: | Natural experiments have a long tradition in empirical corporate finance. Event study methodology is an incumbent approach for measuring the economic impact of an event on shareholder wealth. Within this context, this dissertation covers two main subject areas. The first part offers a methodological contribution to fundamental research in the field of corporate bonds. In fixed-income research, event study methodology lags far behind event studies in the field of equity, and existing approaches are insufficiently validated. In the first article, we replicate results from the previous literature and test the methodology for robustness to event-induced variance and illiquidity. We conclude that existing methods for analysing the impact on bondholder wealth are intractable and that researchers should carefully consider sample characteristics, liquidity, and the presence of event-induced variance. The second part of this dissertation is devoted to the application of event study methodology in equity markets to test existing theoretical frameworks with regard to political and regulatory risk and uncertainty. The second and third articles focus specifically on the carbon risk hypothesis and examine whether carbon emissions are priced in by investors. We show that market reactions to regulatory announcements are driven significantly by greenhouse gas emissions. The results provide short-term evidence supporting the carbon risk hypothesis. In the fourth article, we analyse the market impact of populist success in national elections. We show that the increase in OHLC volatility in the run-up to an election is a robust proxy for the sensitivity of a stock to the election outcome. On the one hand, this dissertation thus advances research in the field of corporate bonds, and on the other hand, it contributes to the verification of existing theoretical models on the influence of regulatory and political risks and uncertainties on shareholder wealth. |
| Date: | 2024–08–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:149163 |
| By: | Thomas Chambon (L3I - Laboratoire Informatique, Image et Interaction - EA 2118 - ULR - La Rochelle Université); Ulysse Soulat (NUDD - Usages du Numérique pour le Développement Durable - ULR - La Rochelle Université); Jeanne Lallement (NUDD - Usages du Numérique pour le Développement Durable - ULR - La Rochelle Université); Jean-Loup Guillaume (L3I - Laboratoire Informatique, Image et Interaction - EA 2118 - ULR - La Rochelle Université) |
| Abstract: | Our research is interested in the effect of adopting a self-tracking application for one's carbon footprint and the consequences of the complexity of CO2 information on user behavior. We are combining methods from computer science and management science to examine decision-making and behavioral processes. |
| Date: | 2024–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04649625 |
| By: | Fukushige, Tatsuya; Fitch-Polse, Dillon T. |
| Abstract: | This study examined the sustainability of shared micromobility services using data from 48 cities in the US using a 21-day smartphone travel diary and survey data. Population-weighted analysis indicated a much smaller share of transit connection than in prior reported studies, with more reliable data. However methodological decisions could be a cause for such discrepancies suggesting a sensitivity analysis of this same data may be a good next research step. Results also indicated median VMT reduced per micromobility trip to be roughly 0.15 miles for e-scooter share trips and 0.25 miles for bike share (including e-bike) trips. Models of mode substitution confirm prior evidence of factors affecting car substitution including trip distance as the strongest factor. This study also proposed two frameworks for building a sketch planning tool for examining VMT reduction from future micromobility services. This tool could help cities and regions better plan for the micromobility services to achieve real VMT and GHG reduction goals. While more research is needed to employ this framework, it helps motivate a series of additional research topics to inform a decision support tool for shared micromobility planning. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Micromobility, shared mobility, bicycles, e-scooters, e-bikes, mode substitution, transit connection, vehicle miles traveled |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4qr5t2tw |
| By: | Mingyang Li; Maoqin Yuan; Han Pengsihua; Yuan Yuan; Zejun Wang |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the potential impact of "LK-99, " a novel material developed by a Korean research team, on the power equipment industry. Using evolutionary game theory, the interactions between governmental subsidies and technology adoption by power companies are modeled. A key innovation of this research is the introduction of sensitivity analyses concerning time delays and initial subsidy amounts, which significantly influence the strategic decisions of both government and corporate entities. The findings indicate that these factors are critical in determining the rate of technology adoption and the efficiency of the market as a whole. Due to existing data limitations, the study offers a broad overview of likely trends and recommends the inclusion of real-world data for more precise modeling once the material demonstrates room-temperature superconducting characteristics. The research contributes foundational insights valuable for future policy design and has significant implications for advancing the understanding of technology adoption and market dynamics. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.01017 |
| By: | C\'esar Pedrosa Soares |
| Abstract: | This paper explores an innovative approach to Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) scoring by integrating Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques with Item Response Theory (IRT), specifically the Rasch model. The study utilizes a comprehensive dataset of news articles in Portuguese related to Petrobras, a major oil company in Brazil, collected from 2022 and 2023. The data is filtered and classified for ESG-related sentiments using advanced NLP methods. The Rasch model is then applied to evaluate the psychometric properties of these ESG measures, providing a nuanced assessment of ESG sentiment trends over time. The results demonstrate the efficacy of this methodology in offering a more precise and reliable measurement of ESG factors, highlighting significant periods and trends. This approach may enhance the robustness of ESG metrics and contribute to the broader field of sustainability and finance by offering a deeper understanding of the temporal dynamics in ESG reporting. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.20377 |
| By: | Beznoska, Martin; Wendt, Jan |
| Abstract: | Bis zum Jahr 2026 erhöht sich in Deutschland der CO2-Preis auf fossile Heizenergieträger und Kraftstoffe schrittweise jeweils zum Jahresbeginn. Zum 1. Januar 2024 stieg der Preis hierzulande von 30 auf 45 Euro pro Tonne CO2. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:300829 |
| By: | Muhammad Rofiqul Islam; Abdullah Al Mehdi |
| Abstract: | Many studies have examined the connection between the intention to start a business and environmental values. However, there still needs to be more knowledge in the extant literature about how climate change campaigns influence sustainable entrepreneurial intention. This study uses the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to develop a theoretical framework to explain how climate change campaigns affect the intention to start a sustainable business. This interdisciplinary conceptual research model bridges the gap between climate awareness, sustainable values, and entrepreneurial intentions, offering a robust framework for understanding and fostering sustainable entrepreneurial behaviors. Our study lays the groundwork for future empirical studies and real-world interventions to advance sustainability through entrepreneurship. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.16838 |
| By: | Gollier, Christian |
| Abstract: | Because of risk aversion, any sensible investment valuation system should value less projects that contribute more to the aggregate risk. In theory, this is done by adjusting discount rates to consumption betas. But in reality, most public institutions use a dis-count rate that is rather insensitive to the risk profile of their investment projects. The economic consequences of the implied misallocation of capital are severe. I calibrate a Lucas model in which the investment opportunity set contains a constellation of projects with different expected returns and risk profiles. The model matches the traditional finan-cial and macro moments, together with the observed heterogeneity of assets’ risk profiles. The welfare loss of using a single discount rate is equivalent to a permanent reduction in consumption that lies somewhere between 15% and 45% depending upon which single discount rate is used. |
| Keywords: | Discounting; investment theory; asset pricing; carbon pricing; Arrow-Lind theorem; WACC fallacy; rare disasters; capital budgeting |
| JEL: | G12 H43 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:129648 |