nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2023‒10‒16
37 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet, National University of Singapore

  1. Welfare Estimates of Shifting Peak Travel By Robert W. Hahn; Robert D. Metcalfe; Eddy Tam
  2. Subsidies, information, and energy-efficient cookstove adoption: A randomized uncontrolled trial in rural Ethiopia By Malan, Mandy; Voors, Marten; Ankel-Peters, Jörg; Seje, Selan J.; Heuburger, Lotte; Seid, Dawud; Mitiku, Abiyot
  3. A dynamic systems approach to harness the potential of social tipping By Sibel Eker; Charlie Wilson; Niklas H\"ohne; Mark S. McCaffrey; Irene Monasterolo; Leila Niamir; Caroline Zimm
  4. The Emissions Reduction Potential for Freight Transport on a High-speed Rail Line Along the ‘European Silk Road’ By Erica Angers; Aleksandr Arsenev; Mario Holzner
  5. The Demand for Energy Imports from Non-Renewable Resources in EU-27 Economy By Ioana-Ancuta Iancu; Patrick Hendrick; Dan Doru Micu; Stefan Dragos Cirstea
  6. The global green shift: Where it comes from, how it works, and where it’s heading By Jan Fagerberg
  7. Does Oil Corrupt? Evidence from a Multivariate VAR in Iran By Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Reza Zamani
  8. Electricity Consumption Forecasting in Algeria using ARIMA and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network By Sahed Abdelkader; Kahoui Hacene
  9. Pricing energy consumption and residential energy-efficiency investment: An optimal tax approach By Claude Crampes; Norbert Ladoux; Jean-Marie Lozachmeur
  10. Decreasing CO2 emissions from energy generation and consumption to achieve the Green Deal targets By Ioana-Ancuta Iancu; Patrick Hendrick; Denisa Stet; Levente Czumbil; Micu DDM Dan Doru
  11. Long-term health and economic impacts of air pollution in Greater Geneva By Irène Cucchi; Olivier Chanel
  12. Climate policies, macroprudential regulation, and the welfare cost of business cycles By Annicchiarico, Barbara; Carli, Marco; Diluiso, Francesca
  13. Econometric Model Using Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Quantile Regression to Estimate the Risk Factors Driving Crude Oil Returns By Sarit Maitra; Vivek Mishra; Sukanya Kundu; Manav Chopra
  14. Optimization of Electrical Energy Generation Systems in the Mini-grids of Southern Algeria By Dahmani Souria; Aïssa Mouhoubi
  15. Scopes for Early Retirement of Coal-Based Power Plants: What Strategies Can be Adopted? By Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Shiyan Sadik
  16. Not All Oil Types Are Alike By Jochen Güntner; Michael Irlacher; Peter Öhlinger
  18. Do carbon emissions affect the cost of capital? Primary versus secondary corporate bond markets By Kim, Daniel; Pouget, Sébastien
  19. Unpacking the green box: Determinants of Environmental Policy Stringency in European countries By Donatella Gatti; Gaye del Lo; Francisco Serranito
  20. The Drivers of Emission Reductions in the European Carbon Market By Hilde C. Bjørnland; Jamie L. Cross; Felix Kapfhammer
  21. Role of Vehicle Technology on Use: Joint analysis of the choice of Plug-in Electric Vehicle ownership and miles traveled By Chakraborty, Debapriya; Bunch , David S.; Brownstone, David
  22. Where does the money go? An analysis of revenues in the GB power sector during the energy crisis By S. A. Maximov; P. Drummond; P. McNally; M. Grubb
  23. Military Expenditure, Governance, and Environmental Degradation in Sub-Saharan Africa By Simplice A. Asongu; Cheikh T. Ndour
  24. Value-transforming financial, carbon and biodiversity footprint accounting By S. El Geneidy; S. Baumeister; M. Peura; J. S. Kotiaho
  25. Inferential Theory for Granular Instrumental Variables in High Dimensions By Saman Banafti; Tae-Hwy Lee
  26. Nuclear Energy Acceptance in Poland: From Societal Attitudes to Effective Policy Strategies -- Network Modeling Approach By Pawel Robert Smolinski; Joseph Januszewicz; Barbara Pawlowska; Jacek Winiarski
  27. Carbon curse: As you extract, so you will burn By Adrien Desroziers; Yassine Kirat; Arsham Reisinezhad
  28. Green Energy Transition in Bangladesh Examining Support Measures and Estimating Investment Requirements By Fahmida Khatun; Estiaque Bari; Foqoruddin Al Kabir
  29. Economic Crises and Energy Use: An Input-Output Analysis of Catalonia’s 2008–2014 Financial Crisis By Jaume Freire González; Oliver Canosa
  30. Central Bank Mandates and Communication about Climate Change: Evidence from A Large Dataset of Central Bank Speeches By David M. Arseneau; Mitsuhiro Osada
  31. Time to say goodbye? The impact of environmental regulation on foreign divestment By Mao, Haiou; Görg, Holger; Fang, Guopei
  32. Serbia: European integration, energy, war in Ukraine By Vincent Joguet
  33. Air Pollution in Bangladesh: Drivers, Impacts and Solutions By Fahmida Khatun; Syed Yusuf Saadat; Kashfia Ashraf
  34. Angola: First Post-Financing Assessment Discussions-Press Release By International Monetary Fund
  35. Declining Oil Production Leads to More Democratic Governments By Jørgen J. Andersen; Jonas H. Hamang; Michael L. Ross
  36. Reasons Behind Words: OPEC Narratives and the Oil Market By Celso Brunetti; Marc Joëts; Valérie Mignon
  37. Multi-Periodic Distributional-Robust Stackelberg Game with Price-History-Dependent Demand and Environmental Corrective Actions By Fakhrabadi, Mahnaz; Sandal, Leif K.

  1. By: Robert W. Hahn; Robert D. Metcalfe; Eddy Tam
    Abstract: We develop novel estimates of peak and off-peak price elasticities for urban mass transit demand in San Francisco using a large natural experiment with 3.6 million trip sessions and a natural field experiment that both have exogenous price subsidies. We then estimate the welfare impacts for these price subsidies using a sufficient statistics approach. Our analysis suggests that off-peak subsidies can increase welfare, but the positive effects are reduced when consumers take the decisions of others into account compared to when they do not. We also find a large variation in the welfare impacts of shifting travel to different periods, which is explained by differences in demand and congestion characteristics. Finally, we show that the targeting of subsidies can increase welfare, but need not do so if the regulator does not have accurate information on demand.
    JEL: H20 R41
    Date: 2023–08
  2. By: Malan, Mandy; Voors, Marten; Ankel-Peters, Jörg; Seje, Selan J.; Heuburger, Lotte; Seid, Dawud; Mitiku, Abiyot
    Abstract: Energy-efficient biomass cookstoves (EEBC) are an important technology for the three billion people relying on firewood and charcoal for cooking in the Global South. This paper assesses the price-responsiveness of demand for EEBC and the role of information about health and economic benefits. The pilot program under evaluation randomized different subsidy schemes (40%, 70%, and 100% subsidy) and information treatments across 292 Ethiopian villages. Unlike previous willingness-to-pay studies we examine a take-it-orleave-it approach in an uncontrolled and hence natural setting. We observe that EEBC demand is highly price-sensitive: There is virtually no EEBC uptake in the no-subsidy group, irrespective of which information households received. Yet, uptake increases considerably for households who received a high subsidy (70% or a 100%). Adding information on economic benefits nearly doubles uptake when coupled with such high subsidies. Our results confirm the emerging picture in the literature suggesting that subsidization for EEBC is required to foster widespread adoption.
    Keywords: Household technology adoption, biomass consumption, randomized controlled trial, humanitarian assistance, environmental degradation
    JEL: C93 O12 O13 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Sibel Eker; Charlie Wilson; Niklas H\"ohne; Mark S. McCaffrey; Irene Monasterolo; Leila Niamir; Caroline Zimm
    Abstract: Social tipping points are promising levers to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emission targets. They describe how social, political, economic or technological systems can move rapidly into a new state if cascading positive feedback mechanisms are triggered. Analysing the potential of social tipping for rapid decarbonization requires considering the inherent complexity of social systems. Here, we identify that existing scientific literature is inclined to a narrative-based account of social tipping, lacks a broad empirical framework and a multi-systems view. We subsequently outline a dynamic systems approach that entails (i) a systems outlook involving interconnected feedback mechanisms alongside cross-system and cross-scale interactions, and including a socioeconomic and environmental injustice perspective (ii) directed data collection efforts to provide empirical evidence for and monitor social tipping dynamics, (iii) global, integrated, descriptive modelling to project future dynamics and provide ex-ante evidence for interventions. Research on social tipping must be accordingly solidified for climate policy relevance.
    Date: 2023–09
  4. By: Erica Angers; Aleksandr Arsenev (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: This report estimates the CO2 emissions of freight transport on a hypothetical high-speed rail (HSR) line along the northern route, from Lyon to Warsaw, of a ‘European Silk Road’ (ESR). Using a methodology consisting of predictions regarding the freight-carrying capacity of the future HSR, and the commodity-level switchover, our results indicate that a best-case scenario, at a project lifecycle of 60 years, in which all trains run with 257 tonnes of load, provides for a reduction of 176.2 Mt of net CO2 emissions compared with current levels. These lifespan savings are comparable to a reduction of net emissions by close to 24% of the overall EU transport sector emissions (excluding air transport) of one year (as measured by the net emissions in 2018). The net negative emissions in the optimistic full-capacity scenario will compensate for the construction costs in 13 years. Thus, the potential for emission reduction along the northern route of the ESR is quite substantial, given that this is just one line, with limited capacity. This hints at the importance that bold missions, such as the construction of a pan-European HSR network, could have for the definition of a European Green Industrial Policy that is capable of supporting the fulfilment of the goals of the Paris Agreement on climate change.
    Keywords: Climate change, ecological efficiency, European Silk Road, European Union, green growth, green transition, high-speed rail (HSR), infrastructure, intermodal competition, life-cycle analysis (LCA), logistics, modal shift, train networks, transportation
    JEL: H54 L91 L92 Q42 Q50 Q51 Q55 Q56 Q58 R40 R41 R42
    Date: 2023–09
  5. By: Ioana-Ancuta Iancu; Patrick Hendrick; Dan Doru Micu; Stefan Dragos Cirstea
    Abstract: Energy imports and the transition to renewable energy sources are of critical importance in the current geopolitical context, which necessitates concrete actions to tackle the energy crisis at the European Union level. This study aimed to explore the impact of imported non-renewable energy resources on the EU-27 economy. It examined the correlations and causal relationships between the GDP, the GVA, R&D investments, and energy imports from 2000 to 2021. Data normality was assessed using the Shapiro–Wilk test, while Pearson’s test identified correlations between variables. Linear and multiple regression analyses were conducted to determine the effects of changes in independent variables on dependent variables. The study found a strong association between natural gas imports and the GDP, with increases in GDP leading to a more-than-fourfold rise in imports. Furthermore, a multiple regression analysis indicated that a 1% increase in R&D investments results in a 2.21% decrease in fossil fuel imports in 91.7% of cases. This suggests that R&D investments contribute to improved efficiency and the use of renewable energy sources.
    Date: 2023–07–01
  6. By: Jan Fagerberg (Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo)
    Abstract: This chapter analyses the ongoing global green shift from an evolutionary (Schumpeterian) perspective. Understanding such large techno-economic shifts, their causes, dynamics, and implications, has been a recurrent theme in evolutionary economics, from Schumpeter onwards. Following this perspective, what primarily characterizes large techno-economic shifts is that the radical changes they entail concern not just one but a whole range of industries and sectors, including ways of life, the organization of work, and infrastructure. The driving forces behind such shifts, according to Christopher Freeman, Carlota Perez and other contributors to the literature, are key inputs (or factors) characterized by rapidly declining costs, almost unlimited supply, and very broad applicability. This chapter argues that the global green shift, currently unfolding, is a techno-economic shift of a similar (or even larger) magnitude as the earlier shifts discussed by Freeman and Perez and others. The analysis shows that the green shift is driven by interaction of innovations in three interrelated areas, that is, renewable energy innovation; innovation in energy-using sectors; and energy infrastructure innovation, e.g., energy storage and distribution. A number of key innovations from these three areas are identified and their development and spread during the last hundred years or so explored. Particular attention is given to the various factors, including policy, that have influenced these processes. Finally, the lessons for policymaking supporting the global green shift are considered.
    Date: 2023–09
  7. By: Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (University of Marburg); Reza Zamani (Allameh Tabatab’i University)
    Abstract: We examine the response of the news-based Corruption Reflection Index (CRI) to positive shocks in oil revenues in Iran. Using annual data from 1962 to 2019, we employ the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and analyze impulse response functions. Our findings reveal a positive and significant response of corruption to oil shocks. The key channels through which this relationship operates include inflation, military spending, and the degradation of democratic institutions. Moreover, we provide a case study of clientelism in public investment projects in Iran from 2002 to 2012 and their impact on the public budget.
    Keywords: Corruption; Oil rents, Resource curse; Conflict; Iran; VAR model
    Date: 2023
  8. By: Sahed Abdelkader (Maghnia University Center); Kahoui Hacene (maghnia University center, Algeria)
    Abstract: Forecasting electricity consumption is necessary for electric grid operation and utility resource planning, as well as to improve energy security and grid resilience. Thus, this research aims to investigate the prediction performance of the ARIMA and LSTM neural network model using electricity consumption data during the period 1990 to 2020. The time series for electricity consumption is divided into 70% for training data and 30% for test data. The results showed that the LSTM model provided improved forecasting accuracy than the ARIMA model.
    Keywords: Electricity Consumption ARIMA LSTM Algeria. JEL Classification Codes: Q47, C53, C45, Electricity Consumption, ARIMA, LSTM, Algeria. JEL Classification Codes: Q47
    Date: 2023–06–04
  9. By: Claude Crampes (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Norbert Ladoux (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jean-Marie Lozachmeur (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We analyze a Pareto optimal income tax problem à la Mirrlees (1971) in which households consume three types of goods: energy goods, energy efficient investments and non-energy goods. The two main ingredients of our normative analysis are: i) an indirect relationship between energy and the satisfaction of energy needs, as energy-efficient investments transform energy into services such as light, heating, and air conditioning; and, ii) imperfect information of the policy designer as regards the level of energy efficiency of households' housing and their labor market productivity. Each household differs with respect to these two latter characteristics, and the government designs a non-linear income tax combined with energy and energy efficient investment non linear pricing that maximizes a weighted sum of households' utilities. We show that a benevolent social planner should distort energy prices in a way that depends on the difference between the saturation of energy needs and the complementarity between energy and the level of energy efficiency in the provision of energy services. A sufficient condition for energy consumption to be subsidized is that the rebound effect is small. Second, when individuals can invest in energy efficiency on top of energy consumption, these investments should always be subsidized and the marginal subsidy should always be higher than the one on energy consumption.
    Keywords: Optimal income taxation, Indirect taxation, Energy services, Energy efficiency, Energy consumption
    Date: 2023
  10. By: Ioana-Ancuta Iancu; Patrick Hendrick; Denisa Stet; Levente Czumbil; Micu DDM Dan Doru
  11. By: Irène Cucchi (Univ Geneva, DQMP, 24 Quai Ernest, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland); Olivier Chanel (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Introduction: We estimated the health and economic impacts of chronic exposure to air pollution for the Swiss part of the Greater Geneva area from 2016 to 2018. Materials and methods: We extracted from fine-scale modelled concentration maps for two pollutant indicators, particulate matter PM 2.5 and nitrogen dioxide. Then, we performed a quantitative health impact assessment of the health burden attributable to anthropogenic-origin air pollution, and estimated the benefits of compliance with the federal Ordinance on Air Pollution Control (OAPC) limit values. Finally, we computed the economic impacts of these health effects. Results: Exposure to fine particles of anthropogenic origin was responsible for 7.5% of annual mortality (280 deaths or 5, 900 life years lost), for 14 lung cancers and for 68 strokes annually in the Canton of Geneva. Compliance with the OAPC limit value of 10 µg/m 3 as an annual average would reduce annual mortality by 1.5% (62 deaths avoided or 1, 300 life years gained). Exposure to anthropogenic-origin NO 2 was associated with 5.3% of annual deaths (approximately 200 deaths per year). The estimated total negative economic impacts of anthropogenic-origin fine particles were at least CHF 2017 1.3 billion per year, whereas compliance with the OAPC limit values would result in annual economic benefits of at least CHF 2017 290 million. Conclusion: We confirmed that air quality remains a health issue on which stakeholder mobilisation is vital. Action plans should tackle emissions from freight and personal mobility, heating, industry and agriculture, while seeking to improve knowledge on health risks from air pollution exposure.
    Keywords: Quantitative health impact assessment, Mortality, Morbidity, Economic assessment, Switzerland
    Date: 2023–06
  12. By: Annicchiarico, Barbara (University of Rome ‘Tor Vergata’); Carli, Marco (University of Rome ‘Tor Vergata’); Diluiso, Francesca (Bank of England)
    Abstract: We compare the performance of a carbon tax and a cap-and-trade scheme in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that includes an environmental externality and agency problems associated with financial intermediation. Heterogeneous polluting firms purchase capital by combining their resources with loans from banks and are hit by idiosyncratic shocks that can lead them to default. We find that financial market distortions strongly affect the performance of climate policy throughout the business cycle. The welfare cost of business cycles is substantially lower under a cap-and-trade system than under a carbon tax if financial frictions are stringent, firm leverage is high, and agents are sufficiently risk-averse. The difference in welfare costs shrinks significantly in the presence of simple macroprudential policy rules that weaken the strength of financial market distortions. These policies can go a long way in smoothing business-cycle fluctuations and aligning the performance of price and quantity pollution policies, reducing the uncertainty inherent to the Government’s chosen climate policy tool.
    Keywords: Business cycle; cap-and-trade; carbon tax; E-DSGE
    JEL: E32 E44 Q58
    Date: 2023–08–11
  13. By: Sarit Maitra; Vivek Mishra; Sukanya Kundu; Manav Chopra
    Abstract: This work adopts a novel approach to determine the risk and return of crude oil stocks by employing Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) and Quantile Regression (QR).The APT identifies the underlying risk factors likely to impact crude oil returns.Subsequently, QR estimates the relationship between the factors and the returns across different quantiles of the distribution. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price is used in this study as a benchmark for crude oil prices. WTI price fluctuations can have a significant impact on the performance of crude oil stocks and, subsequently, the global economy.To determine the proposed models stability, various statistical measures are used in this study.The results show that changes in WTI returns can have varying effects depending on market conditions and levels of volatility. The study highlights the impact of structural discontinuities on returns, which can be caused by changes in the global economy and the demand for crude oil.The inclusion of pandemic, geopolitical, and inflation-related explanatory variables add uniqueness to this study as it considers current global events that can affect crude oil returns.Findings show that the key factors that pose major risks to returns are industrial production, inflation, the global price of energy, the shape of the yield curve, and global economic policy uncertainty.This implies that while making investing decisions in WTI futures, investors should pay particular attention to these elements
    Date: 2023–09
  14. By: Dahmani Souria (Université Abderrahmane Mira [Béjaïa]); Aïssa Mouhoubi (Université Abderrahmane Mira [Béjaïa])
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to review the electrification modes associated with the Great Algerian South Networks (GSN). The study focuses on the conceptualization of the GSN through the dimensioning of mini-grids. Given the remoteness and difficulties of fuel supply, a series of reforms have been undertaken to promote the energy transition and ensure the development of these regions through the realization of hybrid systems in order to reduce the dependence on fossil fuel sources by ensuring energy savings.
    Keywords: Electricity, hybridization, Great Algerian South Networks, energy transition, renewable energy. JEL Classification Codes: Q42 Q48 R34, renewable energy. JEL Classification Codes: Q42, Q48, R34
    Date: 2023–06–04
  15. By: Khondaker Golam Moazzem; Shiyan Sadik
    Abstract: It is evident that coal has been detrimental to a sustainable future, and the Bangladesh government has decided to make a transition from coal to an alternative fuel source. However, the transition pathway from coal to an alternative is not without challenges. The early retirement of coal-based power plants is an option that has been researched at theoretical and empirical levels. This study focuses on the abandonment decision of a coal plant from the economic perspective and discusses the necessary guidelines that the government can adopt as long-term plan. Based on the data analyses and results on a domiestic coal power plant, it appears the decision of abandoning coal plants for the futuristic approach can be justified. It reveals that with the estimated value of the future cash flow, the financial investors can decide whether to abandon a project or sustain it. The adopted approach in the study for calculating the abandonment value based on different variables can be applied to other coal plants which are in operation in the country. Moreover, this framework can be used to apply to the coal power plants which are in the planning or under construction stages.
    Keywords: Coal-Based Power Plants, Bangladesh
    Date: 2023–06
  16. By: Jochen Güntner; Michael Irlacher; Peter Öhlinger
    Abstract: Motivated by the European Union’s debate on sanctioning crude oil imports from Russia, we estimate the elasticity of substitution between different crude oil types. Using European data on country-level crude oil imports by field of origin, we argue that crude oil is not a homogenous good and that the relevant substitutability for analyzing the impact of trade sanctions must account for the quality of different oil types in terms of their API gravity and sulfur content. Our results suggest that, by neglecting these differences in quality, standard estimates significantly underestimate the production disruptions in crude oil refining resulting from sanctions.
    Keywords: crude oil trade, elasticity of substitution, refinery economics, sanctions
    JEL: F14 F51 L71 Q37 Q41
    Date: 2023
  17. By: Mitra, Sanjay (School of Public Policy, IIT Delhi); Chandra, Rohit (School of Public Policy, IIT Delhi)
    Abstract: This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the nature and extent of the financial impact of the mitigation policies centered on deep decarbonization of India's electricity sector on the budget deficits of the states with relatively low endowments of solar and wind power. The impact could be quite substantial, adding 8.66 % to the combined deficits of the VRE poor states under fairly conservative assumptions. The impact is most severe on the three coal-rich states of Jharkhand, Odisha and Chhattisgarh. Absent an acceptable framework for an equitable sharing of costs and benefits across the states and with the centre, these developments could impede the realization of the national goals for climate change mitigation. India's ambitious targets call for a deep de-carbonization of the electricity sector through an accelerated deployment of renewable energy and reduced use of coal. This could exacerbate existing regional inequalities, between the states in the west and the south and those in the north and east. While variable renewable energy (VRE) sources namely, solar and wind are concentrated in a few states in the western and southern parts of the country, coal reserves occur mainly in the eastern part that also happen to have the lowest VRE endowments. As the share of VRE in electricity production and consumption rises, these locational characteristics and the dominant role of state ownership in the electricity sector together play into the finances of the VRE poor states through higher expenditure and lower revenues.
    Date: 2023–10
  18. By: Kim, Daniel; Pouget, Sébastien
    Abstract: We empirically study whether carbon emissions affect US firms’ cost of capital. We show that firms with higher carbon emissions tend to face higher cost of capital on the primary market. However, this carbon premium represents less than 15% of the one prevailing on the secondary market. A simple model attributes this gap to uncertainty about future climate preferences of investors and limited competition among primary market dealers. We find evidence for these two channels. Our findings imply that market imperfections reduce the effectiveness of the cost of capital channel in inducing firms to reduce their carbon emissions.
    Keywords: Climatefinance; Carbonpremium; Bondmarkets; Greeninvestors; Underwriting dealers
    JEL: G12 G41
    Date: 2023–09
  19. By: Donatella Gatti (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Université Sorbonne Paris Nord); Gaye del Lo; Francisco Serranito (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper identifies the determinants of OECD Environmental Policy Stringency (EPS) index using a panel of 21 European countries for the period 2009-2019. If there is a large literature on the macroeconomic, political, and social determinants of EPS, the people's attitudes or preferences toward environmental policies is still burgeoning. Thus, the main goal of this paper is to estimate the effects of people's awareness regarding environmental issues on the EPS indicator. Due to the endogeneity of preferences, we have applied an instrumental variable framework to estimate our empirical model. Our most important result is to show that individual environmental preferences have a positive and significant effect on the level of EPS indicator : on average, a rise in individual preferences of 10% in a country will increase its EPS indicator by 2.30%. Our results have important policy implications.
    Keywords: Environmental policy stringency, Environmental attitudes/concerns, Inequality, Environmental Kuznets curve, EU
    Date: 2023–09–18
  20. By: Hilde C. Bjørnland; Jamie L. Cross; Felix Kapfhammer
    Abstract: This paper studies the drivers of emission reductions in the carbon market of the European Union Emission Trading System (EU ETS) since its inception in 2005. We introduce a novel empirical framework that facilitates the joint identification of simultaneous demand and supply shocks underlying the European carbon market. We find that emission supply restrictions of the EU ETS were the dominant driver of emissions reductions, reducing emissions by 46%. However we also find that two opposing emission demand factors also played an important role. Demand from industrial economic activity increased emissions by 15%, while other demand-side factors, primarily reflecting the transition to low-carbon economies, reduced emissions by 21%.
    Date: 2023–09
  21. By: Chakraborty, Debapriya; Bunch , David S.; Brownstone, David
    Abstract: The increasing diversity of vehicle type holdings and growing demand for BEVs and PHEVs have serious policy implications for travel demand and air pollution. Consequently, it is important to accurately predict or estimate the preference for vehicle holdings of households as well as the vehicle miles traveled by vehicle body- and fuel-type to project future VMT changes and mobile source emission levels. Leveraging the 2019 California Vehicle Survey data, this report presents the application of a utility-based model for multiple discreteness that combines multiple vehicle types with usage in an integrated model, specifically the MDCEV model. The model results suggest the important effects of household demographics, residence location, and built environment factors on vehicle body type and powertrain choice and usage. Further the predictions associated with changes inbuilt environment factors like population density can inform the design of land-use and transportation policies to influence household vehicle holdings and usage that can in turn impact travel demand and air quality issues in California. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vehicle Choice, Vehicle Miles Traveled, Joint Discrete Choice Model
    Date: 2023–09–01
  22. By: S. A. Maximov (University College London); P. Drummond (University College London); P. McNally (University College London); M. Grubb (University College London)
    Abstract: The gas crisis has fed through to a huge impact on wholesale electricity prices in Britain. We use hourly price and generation data to estimate the impact on associated revenues to different types of generators. Given the extent of forward contracting, we complement simple results based on the day-ahead prices ("Case 1") with a more realistic case based on a representative, technology-specific assumptions on forward contracts ("Case 2"). We estimate that revenues to GB generators rose by almost £30bn, from about £20.5bn/yr (pre-Covid) to £49.5bn in 2022. About 70% of this accrued to gas generators (from about £6bn/yr to £19bn) and renewable generators with Renewable Obligation Certification (from £7.7bn to £15.5bn). There are various indications that the increase in revenues to gas plants significantly exceeded the rise in their input costs, and no reason to think the generating cost of these renewables significantly increased. Nuclear, and some other biomass and renewables also benefited. We find that the Electricity Generation Levy, introduced in Jan 2023, would have had limited impact on these numbers if it had existed in 2022 and is likely to have less impact in 2023. Finally, we discuss reasons and potential implications of the findings.
    Keywords: Electricity market design; energy crisis; renewable energy; CfD; long-run contracts; energy transition; energy poverty.
    JEL: L16 L51 L94 L98 Q4 Q28 Q58
    Date: 2023–05–16
  23. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Cheikh T. Ndour (University Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal)
    Abstract: This article examines how good governance counteracts the effects of military expenditure on carbon emissions in forty African countries. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is used to analyze time series data from 2010-2020. Military expenditure per capita is used to measure military expenditure per penetration, while CO2 emissions per capita are used as an indicator of environmental degradation. The following findings are established. First, from the non-interactive regressions, we find suggestive evidence that arms expenditure increases CO2 emissions. All indicators of good governance contribute to the increase of CO2 emissions. Second, with interactive regressions, we find that improved governance has a negative effect on CO2 emissions per capita. Third, the results are robust to a sensitivity check, considering the synergy effects of governance. This paper provides policy recommendations on low-carbon economies, military expenditure and governance that could help to ensure environmental sustainability by reducing CO2 emissions. In addition, the study findings can provide guidance to other developing countries seeking to implement effective approaches to environmental sustainability while strengthening climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.
    Keywords: climate change; Emission reduction; Environmental degradation; Sustainability; Econometric analysis
    Date: 2023–01
  24. By: S. El Geneidy; S. Baumeister; M. Peura; J. S. Kotiaho
    Abstract: Transformative changes in our production and consumption habits are needed to enable the sustainability transition towards carbon neutrality, no net loss of biodiversity, and planetary well-being. Organizations are the way we humans have organized our everyday life, and much of our negative environmental impacts, also called carbon and biodiversity footprints, are caused by organizations. Here we show how the financial accounts of any organization can be exploited to develop an integrated carbon and biodiversity footprint account. As a metric we utilize spatially explicit potential global loss of species which, we argue, can be understood as the biodiversity equivalent, the utility of which for biodiversity is similar to what carbon dioxide equivalent is for climate. We provide a global Biodiversity Footprint Database that organizations, experts and researchers can use to assess consumption-based biodiversity footprints. We also argue that the current integration of financial and environmental accounting is superficial, and provide a framework for a more robust financial value-transforming accounting model. To test the methodologies, we utilized a Finnish university as a living lab. Assigning an offsetting cost to the footprints significantly altered the financial value of the organization. We believe such value-transforming accounting is needed in order to draw the attention of senior executives and investors to the negative environmental impacts of their organizations.
    Date: 2023–09
  25. By: Saman Banafti (Amazon); Tae-Hwy Lee (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside)
    Abstract: The Granular Instrumental Variables (GIV) methodology exploits panels with factor error structures to construct instruments to estimate structural time series models with endogeneity even after controlling for latent factors. We extend the GIV methodology in several dimensions. First, we extend the identification procedure to a large N and large T framework, which depends on the asymptotic Herfindahl index of the size distribution of N cross-sectional units. Second, we treat both the factors and loadings as unknown and show that the sampling error in the estimated instrument and factors is negligible when considering the limiting distribution of the structural parameters. Third, we show that the sampling error in the high-dimensional precision matrix is negligible in our estimation algorithm. Fourth, we overidentify the structural parameters with additional constructed instruments, which leads to efficiency gains. Monte Carlo evidence is presented to support our asymptotic theory and application to the global crude oil market leads to new results.
    Keywords: Interactive effects, Factor error structure, Simultaneity, Power-law tails, Asymptotic Herfindahl index, Global crude oil market, Supply and demand elasticities, Precision matrix.
    JEL: C26 C36 C38 C46 C55
    Date: 2023–09
  26. By: Pawel Robert Smolinski; Joseph Januszewicz; Barbara Pawlowska; Jacek Winiarski
    Abstract: Poland is currently undergoing substantial transformation in its energy sector, and gaining public support is pivotal for the success of its energy policies. We conducted a study with 338 Polish participants to investigate societal attitudes towards various energy sources, including nuclear energy and renewables. Applying a novel network approach, we identified a multitude of factors influencing energy acceptance. Political ideology is the central factor in shaping public acceptance, however we also found that environmental attitudes, risk perception, safety concerns, and economic variables play substantial roles. Considering the long-term commitment associated with nuclear energy and its role in Poland's energy transformation, our findings provide a foundation for improving energy policy in Poland. Our research underscores the importance of policies that resonate with the diverse values, beliefs, and preferences of the population. While the risk-risk trade-off and technology-focused strategies are effective to a degree, we advocate for a more comprehensive approach. The framing strategy, which tailors messages to distinct societal values, shows particular promise.
    Date: 2023–09
  27. By: Adrien Desroziers (CES, University of Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne, France. Department of Management, University of Bologna, Via Capo di Lucca, 34, 40126 Bologna, Italy); Yassine Kirat (LEO, University of Orleans, France.); Arsham Reisinezhad (University of Essex, UK.)
    Abstract: The "Carbon Curse" theory suggests that fossil fuel richness leads countries to have more carbon intensive development trajectories than they would otherwise. Using causal inference for cross-country panel data spanning 1950-2018, we globally estimate the effect of giant oil and gas discoveries on carbon emissions. Our findings show that the effect is sizable and persistent. Countries that discovered large fossil-fuel fields emit roughly 30% more pollution post-discovery than countries without these discoveries. This effect is stronger in developing countries, and is substantial from the date of the first giant discovery. By exploiting the randomness of the timing of discoveries, we provide the first plausibly-causal evidence in support of the "Carbon Curse".
    Keywords: Carbon Curse, fossil-fuel, giant discoveries, CO2 Emissions, Panel data
    JEL: Q32 Q53
    Date: 2023–10
  28. By: Fahmida Khatun; Estiaque Bari; Foqoruddin Al Kabir
    Abstract: The key objective of the study is to identify opportunities and challenges of green investment in Bangladesh by—(i) reviewing existing support measures (including incentives) and policies for making investment in green projects, (ii) identifying opportunities and implementation challenges for investing in green projects, and (iii) making an estimate of the green investment required for electricity generation from renewable energy sources. In the policy discourse, it is hoped that the findings of the study will narrow the knowledge gap and contribute towards holistic measures by the government for leveraging green investment through the private sector’s (including the financial sector) engagement. The study findings are also expected to support development partners including the European Union in taking focused and strategic decisions on ‘green growth’ in Bangladesh.
    Keywords: Green Energy, Green Transition, Green investment, Green projects, Green growth, Bangladesh
    Date: 2022–11
  29. By: Jaume Freire González; Oliver Canosa
    Abstract: The impact of economic crises on an economy’s energy consumption, considering its sectorial interactions, remains an unexplored area. For this article, we investigated the structural sectorial relationships in energy terms before, during, and after Catalonia’s 2008– 2014 financial crisis, using environmentally extended input-output analysis. We used three input-output tables from 2005, 2011, and 2014, for which we constructed and employed five vectors representing sectorial energy consumption (‘natural gas’, ‘coal’, ‘petroleum’, ‘electricity’, and ‘biomass and waste’) for 41 economic sectors. We studied the evolution of backward and forward linkage coefficients in terms of energy, as well as key sectors over this period. Our findings reveal that most sectors, particularly energy-intensive ones, experienced a reduction in both backward and forward linkages. However, the relative importance of sectors in the Catalan economy remained relatively stable, indicating a certain level of persistence in this indicator throughout the period, despite the economic crisis.
    Keywords: financial crisis, energy use, environmentally extended input-output analysis, Key sectors, economic structure
    JEL: C67 Q43
    Date: 2023–09
  30. By: David M. Arseneau (Federal Reserve Board); Mitsuhiro Osada (Bank of Japan)
    Abstract: We compare alternative methodologies to identify central banks speeches that focus on climate change and argue a supervised word scoring method produces the most comprehensive set. Using these climate-related speeches, we empirically examine the role of the mandate in shaping central bank communication about climate change. Central banks differ considerably in the extent to which their mandates support a sustainability objective -- it can be explicit, indirect whereby the central bank is mandated to support broader government policies, or it may not be supported at all. Our results show that these differences are important in determining the frequency of climate-related communication as well as context in which central banks address climate-related issues. All told, these findings suggest that mandate considerations play an important role in shaping central bank communication about climate change.
    Keywords: Central bank speeches; Mandates; Climate change; Natural language processing
    JEL: E58 E61 Q54
    Date: 2023–09–29
  31. By: Mao, Haiou; Görg, Holger; Fang, Guopei
    Abstract: We look at divestments by foreign firms - a topic that has received comparatively little attention in the literature - and investigate how changes in the regulatory environment in the host country may impact on such divestment decisions. We use the implementation of China's Two Control Zone (TCZ) policy as a 'quasi-natural experiment', using detailed firm level combined with city level data for the empirical analysis. Our results show that the implementation of TCZ policy has led to higher probabilities of divestments by foreign firms in targeted TCZ cities and industries. The mechanism behind this seems to be a TCZ-induced increase in discharge fees and efforts to reduce SO2 emissions. Allowing for heterogeneity of effects, we find that the effect is particularly strong for firms from source countries with less stringent environmental regulation, and those using less advanced technology. We furthermore show that firms using intermediates from polluting industries also experience a higher probability of divestment.
    Keywords: foreign divestment, environmental regulation, Two Control Zone Policy, China
    JEL: F23 Q58
    Date: 2023
  32. By: Vincent Joguet
    Abstract: The path of economic growth and development of Serbia, a country with a modern, diversified and outward-looking economy, depends at the same time on the fundamental reforms of its energy model, developments in the global economic environment, and a hypothetical rapidintegration into the European Union (EU).Serbia’s integration into the EU, the official governing principle of the ruling party despite its ambiguous rhetoric, could be the catalyst for stronger growth. But the convergence towards EU standards poses major challenges for the Government, starting with the strengthening of electoral democracy, the judicial system and the freedom of the media, along with the normalization of relations with neighboring Kosovo.
    Keywords: Balkans occidentaux
    JEL: E
    Date: 2023–09–22
  33. By: Fahmida Khatun; Syed Yusuf Saadat; Kashfia Ashraf
    Abstract: Bangladesh, particularly its capital city Dhaka, has been on the top of the mantle for having the worst air quality in the world. Economic development induced by rapid industrialisation, urbanisation and energy consumption is responsible for the degradation of air quality in major cities of Bangladesh.
    Keywords: Air Pollution, Dhaka, energy consumption, urbanisation, rapid industrialisation, carbon emission, green cities initiative, Bangladesh
    Date: 2023–04
  34. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: After achieving macroeconomic stability amid a difficult environment in 2020, the recovery that began in 2021 continued through 2022, aided by high oil prices. President João Lourenço second term – achieved last year – is focused on boosting diversification and non-oil growth. However, Angola faces significant challenges in 2023, including a worsening outlook for oil prices, lower oil production, a highly uncertain external environment, and the need to unwind last year’s large fiscal loosening. The latter will be aided by the full completion of the fuel subsidy reform announced by the government on June 1, 2023. Angola’s capacity to repay the Fund is adequate though subject to high risks. In the event of an adverse scenario involving a prolonged oil price shock, repayment indicators would weaken but remain adequate.
    Date: 2023–09–18
  35. By: Jørgen J. Andersen (Department of Economics, Norwegian Business School BI); Jonas H. Hamang (Department of Economics, Norwegian Business School BI); Michael L. Ross (Department of Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles)
    Abstract: Many oil-rich countries have authoritarian governments. How will these governments be affected by a global transition away from fossil fuels? We use new, detailed oil data and an event-study design to analyze political change in 36 oil-producing countries that experienced at least 10 years of declining production. We find that when their production starts to decline, they become significantly more democratic, relative to both the overall sample trend and the parallel pre-peak trends. Ten years after their oil peak, 33 of the 36 countries had become more democratic. After 15 years, their relative democracy scores increased by an average of 9 percentage points. For countries that transitioned after 1980, these scores rose about 13 percentage points, and for larger producers, by about 20 percentage points. Our findings suggest that a global transition toward renewable energy may make the governments of oil-rich countries significantly more democratic.
    Date: 2022–06–25
  36. By: Celso Brunetti; Marc Joëts; Valérie Mignon
    Abstract: We analyze the content of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) communications and whether it provides valuable information to the crude oil market. To this end, we derive an empirical strategy which allows us to measure OPEC’s public signal and test its credibility. Using Structural Topic Models, we identify in OPEC narratives several topics related to fundamental factors such as demand, supply, and speculative activity in the crude oil market, highlighting that OPEC announcements are highly linked to oil market volatility and traders’ positions. Most importantly, we find that OPEC communication is credible, reduces oil price volatility, and prompts market participants to rebalance their positions.
    Keywords: OPEC Announcements;Structural Topic Models;Volatility;Traders’ Positions
    JEL: G10 Q35 Q40 C45 C50
    Date: 2023–09
  37. By: Fakhrabadi, Mahnaz (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Sandal, Leif K. (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: The paper investigates a multi-period supply channel facing uncertain and price-history dependent demands and environmental regulations. The knowledge about the demands is limited to its mean and standard deviation in each period, .e., there is incomplete information on the actual distribution. A distributional robust approach is conducted to address incompleteness. The chain is incorporating environmental policies such as pollution constraints and (optimal) corrective taxes. A single contract covers all periods. Numerical examples highlight the benefits of a single contract.
    Keywords: Dynamic Games; Single Contract; Distributional-Robust Demand; Price-History-Dependent Demand; Pollution Reduction; Sustainability
    JEL: C61 C62 C63 C72 C73 D81 Q52
    Date: 2023–09–22

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