nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2023‒10‒09
25 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet, National University of Singapore

  1. The energy transition between economic growth and ecological preservation: An empirical analysis of the Kuznets environmental curve in Morocco By Rachid Ech-Choudany; Hicham Hafid
  2. Economic, Environmental, and Energy Equity Convergence: Evidence of a Multi-Speed Europe? By Llorca, Manuel; Rodriguez-Alvarez, Ana
  3. Tax Credits for Clean Electricity: The Distributional Impacts of Supply-Push Policies in the Power Sector By Maxwell L. Brown; Jon M. Becker; Jared Carbone; Teagan Goforth; James McFarland; Destenie Nock; Kristina Pitman; Daniel C. Steinberg
  4. Show Me the Money! Incentives and Nudges to Shift Electric Vehicle Charge Timing By Megan R. Bailey; David P. Brown; Blake C. Shaffer; Frank A. Wolak
  5. Cost efficiency of renewable district heating systems: the case of Austria By Mahlberg, Bernhard; Frank-Stocker, Andrea; Koller, Wolfgang; Ramerstorfer, Christian
  6. Fuel Price Caps in the Australian National Wholesale Electricity Market By Pourkhanali, Armin; Khezr, Peyman; Nepal, Rabindra; Jamasb, Tooraj
  7. Global Bank Lending under Climate Policy By Asli Demirguc-Kunt; Alvaro Pedraza; Fredy Pulga; Claudia Ruiz-Ortega
  8. The effect of green energy, global environmental indexes, and stock markets in predicting oil price crashes: Evidence from explainable machine learning By Sami Ben Jabeur; Rabeh Khalfaoui; Wissal Ben Arfi
  9. The Iberian Exception: An overview of its effects over its first 100 days By David Robinson; Angel Arcos-Vargas; Micheael Tennican; Fernando N\'u\~nez
  10. Innovation Market Failures and the Design of New Climate Policy Instruments By Sarah C. Armitage; Noël Bakhtian; Adam B. Jaffe
  11. Volatility Spillovers and Carbon Price in the Nordic Wholesale Electricity Markets By Lyu, Chenyan; Do, Hung Xuan; Nepal, Rabindra; Jamasb, Tooraj
  12. The Economics of Coal Phaseouts By Srivastav, Sugandha; Zaehringer, Michael
  13. A hidden Markov model for statistical arbitrage in international crude oil futures markets By Viviana Fanelli; Claudio Fontana; Francesco Rotondi
  14. A Wind Tunnel Test of Wind Farm Auctions By Xinyu Li; Marco Haan; Sander Onderstal; Jasper Veldman
  15. Network-based allocation of responsibility for GHG emissions By Rosa van den Ende; Antoine Mandel; Agnieszka Rusinowska
  16. Institutions to the rescue: Untangling industrial fragmentation, institutional misalignment, and political constraints in the Russian gas pipeline industry By Claude Ménard; Ivan Shabalov; Andrey Shastitko
  17. Unpacking the green box: Determinants of Environmental Policy Stringency in European countries By Donatella Gatti; Gaye del Lo; Francisco Serranito
  18. Impact of Mineral Resource Rent on Ecological Footprint in Gulf Countries By Ruba Aljarallah
  19. Time to say goodbye? The impact of environmental regulation on foreign divestment By Mao, Haiou; Görg, Holger; Fang, Guopei
  20. Mean Group Distributed Lag Estimation of Impulse Response Functions in Large Panels By Chi-Young Choi; Alexander Chudik
  21. Kinks Know More: Policy Evaluation Beyond Bunching with an Application to Solar Subsidies By Stefan Pollinger
  22. Balancing Natural Resources and Human and Social Capital: Pathways to Economic Diversification in Mongolia By Thorvaldur Gylfason; Jean-Pascal N. Nganou
  23. Scenarios for Future Global Growth to 2050 By Charles Kenny; Zack Gehan
  24. Forecasting International Financial Stress: The Role of Climate Risks By Santino Del Fava; Rangan Gupta; Christian Pierdzioch; Lavinia Rognone
  25. Technological Sovereignty and Strategic Dependencies:The case of the Photovoltaic Supply Chain By Serenella Caravella; Francesco Crespi; Giacomo Cucignatto; Dario Guarascio

  1. By: Rachid Ech-Choudany (Université Mohammed V de Rabat. Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales, Souissi); Hicham Hafid (Université Mohammed V de Rabat. Faculté des Sciences Juridiques, Economiques et Sociales, Souissi)
    Abstract: In a global context marked by climate hazards and the use of non-renewable sources of energy, Morocco has embarked on a new energy strategy over the last two decades aimed at developing renewable energies, particularly solar and wind power. The goal is to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and become a regional hub given its geographical location. This article attempts to quantify the impact of the energy transition on both the economic and environmental systems, using carbon dioxide emissions as the variable to be explained and introducing other explanatory variables, namely renewable electricity production and trade openness over the period from 1990 to 2020. The empirical approach used is based on the Staggered Lag Autoregressive Model and the Granger causality test. The results of this study show the existence of cointegration between the variables at all levels of significance, as well as a positive correlation between economic growth and environmental policies. On the other hand, the role of renewable energies in limiting CO2 emissions was not confirmed, and consequently, there was a negative correlation between changes in GDP and CO2 emissions in the short and long term.
    Abstract: Dans un contexte mondial marqué par les aléas climatiques, suite à l'utilisation des énergies de source non renouvelable, le Maroc a entamé depuis les deux dernières décennies une nouvelle stratégie énergétique visant le développement d'énergies renouvelables, particulièrement de source solaire et éolienne. Le but étant d'alléger sa dépendance aux énergies fossiles et de devenir un hub régional au regard de son positionnement géographie. Cet article tente de quantifier l'impact de la transition énergétique à la fois sur le système économique et environnemental, en utilisant les émissions de dioxyde de carbone comme variable à expliquer et en ajoutant des facteurs explicatifs supplémentaires, comme la production d'électricité renouvelable( ER), produit intérieur brut (PIB) et l'ouverture commerciale (OC) de 1990 à 2020. L'approche empirique mobilisée repose sur le Modèle Autorégressif à Retards Échelonnés ainsi de tester la causalité de Granger au sens de Toda- Yamamoto. Les résultats de cette étude montrent l'existence d'une cointégration entre nos variables pour tous les niveaux de significativité ainsi qu'une corrélation positive entre la croissance économique et les politiques environnementales. En revanche, Il n'y a pas de preuve que les énergies renouvelables jouent un rôle dans la réduction des émissions de CO2 et par conséquent, une corrélation négative entre l'évolution du PIB et les émissions de CO2 à CT et à LT.
    Keywords: Renewable energy, Energy transition, Economic growth, Environmental policy., Energie renouvelable, Transition énergétique, Croissance économique, Politique environnementale, Q 40
    Date: 2023–08–11
  2. By: Llorca, Manuel (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Rodriguez-Alvarez, Ana (University of Oviedo)
    Abstract: The European Union has committed to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. Reaching this objective implies massive changes in the economies of the region. The biggest challenge of this green transition is to make sure that it happens without sacrificing economic progress and guaranteeing justice and inclusiveness. This pledge requires that every country be capable of addressing the trade-offs between the targets while remaining committed towards the common decarbonisation goal. This paper analyses the success with which European countries are carrying out the energy transition. We propose an enhanced hyperbolic distance function and a stochastic frontier analysis approach to model the joint attainment of economic development, environmental sustainability, and energy equity. We apply our model to an unbalanced panel dataset of 29 European countries for the period 2005-2018. Our estimates show that the average performance of the European economies has improved throughout the studied period. However, the patterns of progress have been different, showing the non-EU-15 countries a steeper evolution than the EU-15 countries. Our results also highlight the pivotal role of a sustainable economic development with clean energies for both slashing CO2 emissions and fostering energy equity. Moreover, we find sigma convergence, being this slightly higher for the EU-15 countries. Additionally, we obtain absolute and conditional beta convergence for both non-EU-15 and EU- 15 countries. Finally, we show that a higher share of renewable energy sources helps countries that are lagging behind to reach their optimal level of performance.
    Keywords: Economic development; Environmental sustainability; Energy equity; Enhanced hyperbolic distance function; Stochastic frontier analysis
    JEL: C50 L50 L90 Q40 Q50
    Date: 2023–09–20
  3. By: Maxwell L. Brown; Jon M. Becker; Jared Carbone; Teagan Goforth; James McFarland; Destenie Nock; Kristina Pitman; Daniel C. Steinberg
    Abstract: We evaluate distributional and efficiency consequences of the bulk power clean electricity tax credits authorized by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. To do so, we link detailed electricity capacity expansion, computable general equilibrium, data-rich microsimulation, and air pollution models to estimate the policy incidence in terms of economic welfare and health impacts across a wide range of demographic groups. We evaluate the tradeoff between policy efficiency and income progressivity by comparing the tax credits to cap-and-trade policies that vary revenue recycling approaches. Under the scenarios analyzed the bulk power tax credits lead to increased clean electricity technology deployment resulting in a reallocation of capital from elsewhere in the economy, higher prices for capital and other goods, lower power prices, and lower emissions. The tax credits yield progressive outcomes for both economic welfare and health impacts. The health benefits exceed total policy costs and provide greater benefits for low-income and historically-marginalized households given the coincidence of household and emission source locations.
    JEL: Q43 Q48
    Date: 2023–08
  4. By: Megan R. Bailey; David P. Brown; Blake C. Shaffer; Frank A. Wolak
    Abstract: We use a field experiment to measure the effectiveness of financial incentives and moral suasion “nudges” to shift the timing of electric vehicle (EV) charging. We find EV owners respond strongly to financial incentives, while nudges have no statistically discernible effect. When financial incentives are removed, charge timing reverts to pre-intervention behavior, showing no evidence of habit formation and reinforcing our finding that “money matters”. Our charge price responsiveness estimate is an order of magnitude larger than typical household electricity consumption elasticities. This result highlights the greater flexibility of EV charging over other forms of residential electricity demand.
    JEL: Q4 Q41 Q5 R48
    Date: 2023–08
  5. By: Mahlberg, Bernhard; Frank-Stocker, Andrea; Koller, Wolfgang; Ramerstorfer, Christian
    Abstract: Heat generation based on conventional fossil fuels is considered to be the cause of a significant proportion of greenhouse gas emissions. Achieving the climate protection goals therefore requires a transition to renewable energy sources such as biomass. Establishing renewable district heating (DH) systems is considered as an important cornerstone of a decarbonized energy system. This study estimates the cost efficiency of biomass-based DH systems. It expands the benchmarking currently used in Austria which relies on simple key performance indicators by a new type of multi-variate approach based on efficiency estimates from Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The performance indicator calculated in this way considers all essential factors of production simultaneously and estimates the cost saving potentials of each individual system examined. By decomposing cost efficiency into a technical and allocative component, the causes of inefficiency are revealed. A subsequent regression analysis examines how system-specific technical, structural features and the regional environmental conditions of the respective systems influence their performance. Finally, the results of the regression analysis are used to calculate the managerial inefficiency purged of the influence of structural peculiarities and operating environment. This part of the overall inefficiency is caused by the operator's decisions and can therefore be reduced by changing the operator's behaviour. The applicability of the approach developed here is shown empirically using a sample of biomass-based DH systems from Austria.
    Keywords: sustainable heat generation; energy transition; biomass; climate protection; Data Envelopment Analysis
    JEL: D24 Q41 Q42
    Date: 2023–09–14
  6. By: Pourkhanali, Armin (School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Australia); Khezr, Peyman (School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Australia); Nepal, Rabindra (Faculty of Business and Law, School of Business, University of Wollongong, Australia); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: Fuel price caps are one of the potential regulatory tools for controlling wholesale electricity prices when fuel prices are volatile. In this paper, we introduce a theoretical model to study the effects of such caps on firms’ bidding behavior and clearing prices in spot market auctions. We then use data from the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM), which recently implemented such caps, to empirically test and compare their effectiveness in three different states. Our theoretical findings suggest that fuel price caps can be binding, especially when electricity demand is lower and competition among generators is higher. When demand is high, alternative policy tools, such as market price caps, may be more effective in controlling auction prices. Our empirical analysis employs various techniques, such as Generalized Additive Models (GAM) and machine learning algorithms, to test the effectiveness of price caps in the NEM. We find mixed results regarding the effectiveness of fuel price caps in different states. Specifically, fuel price caps reduced wholesale electricity prices in Queensland and New South Wales, while they were not effective in controlling wholesale prices in Victoria.
    Keywords: Electricity markets; Price caps; Fuel price
    JEL: D40 L51 L94
    Date: 2023–09–13
  7. By: Asli Demirguc-Kunt (Center for Global Development); Alvaro Pedraza (World Bank); Fredy Pulga (Universidad de la Sabana); Claudia Ruiz-Ortega (World Bank)
    Abstract: What is the response of bank foreign subsidiaries to climate policy in their host countries? We find that global banks with high environmental performance increase their presence in countries after local authorities strengthen their climate-related actions. Through their foreign subsidiaries, these banks expand their credit by 4.6 percent following an increase in one-standard deviation of the host country climate policy index. Importantly, we do not find evidence that banks with low environmental scores exit in response to climate initiatives. Our findings show that strengthening climate policy might be a win-win strategy for policymakers—in addition to addressing carbon emission reduction, climate-related initiatives also appear to attract foreign capital from lenders with strong preferences for green assets.
    Keywords: Global banks, climate change, environmental performance
    JEL: G21 G28 D62 Q54
    Date: 2023–01–31
  8. By: Sami Ben Jabeur (ESDES - ESDES, Lyon Business School - UCLy - UCLy - Université Catholique de Lyon (UCLy), UR CONFLUENCE : Sciences et Humanités (EA 1598) - UCLy - Université Catholique de Lyon (UCLy)); Rabeh Khalfaoui (ICN Business School); Wissal Ben Arfi (EDC - EDC Paris Business School)
    Date: 2021–11
  9. By: David Robinson; Angel Arcos-Vargas; Micheael Tennican; Fernando N\'u\~nez
    Abstract: This paper offers an independent assessment of certain economic effects of the Iberian Exception (IE) which was introduced in June 2022 by the Spanish and Portuguese governments. Their stated aim was to reduce wholesale spot electricity prices (which were rising alarmingly due to tight international gas markets related to Russia s invasion of Ukraine) and thereby reduce retail electricity prices for consumers whose prices were linked to that wholesale market. Another aim was to reduce Spanish inflation, which was linked to a regulated electricity retail price indexed to the wholesale spot market. Using hourly data on the wholesale electricity market for the first 100 days of the IE, the authors question the Spanish Governments estimate of the beneficial effects of the measure for affected consumers, which included over 10 million small consumers as well as many large ones. They argue that the estimated effect of the IE on retail prices depends on the assumed counterfactual. Although counterfactuals are always difficult to construct, the government s counterfactual ignores demand elasticity, and this inflates their estimate of immediate consumer benefits. Alternative counterfactuals that include demand elasticity reduce the estimated benefits for consumers and may even lead to the conclusion that the latter would have paid less had the IE not been introduced. The authors identify several other potential short and long-term effects of the IE that deserve further study, including increased margins for fossil fired generators, reduced margins for decarbonized inframarginal plant, heightened regulatory risk for investors, weakened incentives for efficient consumption, higher carbon emissions and gas prices and ultimately higher costs for consumers.
    Date: 2023–09
  10. By: Sarah C. Armitage; Noël Bakhtian; Adam B. Jaffe
    Abstract: Moving beyond the combination of adoption subsidies, standards, and (albeit limited) attempts at carbon pricing that largely characterized U.S. climate policy over the last decade, recent climate-related legislation has transformed not only the scale of U.S. climate activities but also the policy mechanisms adopted. Newly scaled policy instruments — including demonstration projects, loan guarantees, green banks, and regional technology hubs — are motivated not only by un-priced carbon externalities but also by innovation market failures. This paper maps the economics literature on innovation market failures and other frictions to the stated goals of these policy instruments, with the goal of focusing discussions about how to implement these policies as effectively as possible. The paper also discusses how program evaluation can help to illuminate which market failures are most relevant in a particular context and which policy instruments are most targeted to them.
    JEL: O32 O38 Q54 Q55 Q58
    Date: 2023–08
  11. By: Lyu, Chenyan (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Do, Hung Xuan (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, New Zealand); Nepal, Rabindra (Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, University of Wollongong, Australia); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: This paper investigates price volatility and spillover effects in the Nordic electricity wholesale markets, comprising Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Norway. Utilizing both the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) and Rolling Window-based VAR (RW-VAR) approaches, we analyze the integration dynamics among these regional markets and the impact of carbon prices on volatility spillovers. The study employs a rich dataset of 107, 352 hourly prices spanning from January 2010 to March 2022. The novelty of this research is three-fold. Firstly, we adopt a connectedness approach to explore volatility interactions among the four Nordic markets, contributing to the scarce literature on volatility in this market. Secondly, we segment the Norwegian market into southern and northern regions, revealing differences in volatility spillover patterns. Lastly, we investigate the influence of carbon prices on volatility spillovers, shedding light on its role in market dynamics. We find significant connectedness between the Nordic markets, with an average volatility Total Connectedness Index of 52.4% and 50.9%. Sweden emerges as the sole net volatility spillover transmitter, while Denmark experiences the largest shocks from the system. We further find that carbon prices exert a 5% significant impact on the volatility spillover index, as estimated by the 200-days rolling window VAR.
    Keywords: Electricity Markets; Price Volatility; Nord Pool; Carbon Market; Renewable Energy
    JEL: D00 D50 L10 L90
    Date: 2023–09–13
  12. By: Srivastav, Sugandha; Zaehringer, Michael
    Abstract: Fossil fuels are the world's greatest source of greenhouse gas emissions and must be curtailed to achieve temperature targets. Technology-specific mitigation policies such as coal phaseouts may be required for reasons including limited success with carbon pricing, administrative ease, high salience, and ability to tackle a range of environmental and social externalities. Coal investors and communities that rely on mining may resist policies that increase costs such as direct taxation. Instead, compensation for early closure may be a more politically feasible route, especially given concerns around achieving a just transition. Compensation decided via a negotiated approach suffers from asymmetric information. Competitive auctions can help discover efficient compensation payments and order of closure. However, successful auctions require considering: 1. additionality and interaction with existing climate policies, 2. dynamic incentives, and 3. system-wide effects and security of supply. In the absence of being able to implement an auction, strengthened incentives for scrappage and repurposing of assets could be options.
    Keywords: Coal phaseouts, auctions, asymmetric information, compensation, climate policy, net zero, Germany
    Date: 2023–09
  13. By: Viviana Fanelli; Claudio Fontana; Francesco Rotondi
    Abstract: In this work, we study statistical arbitrage strategies in international crude oil futures markets. We analyse strategies that extend classical pairs trading strategies, considering the two benchmark crude oil futures (Brent and WTI) together with the newly introduced Shanghai crude oil futures. We document that the time series of these three futures prices are cointegrated and we model the resulting cointegration spread by a mean-reverting regime-switching process modulated by a hidden Markov chain. By relying on our stochastic model and applying online filter-based parameter estimators, we implement and test a number of statistical arbitrage strategies. Our analysis reveals that statistical arbitrage strategies involving the Shanghai crude oil futures are profitable even under conservative levels of transaction costs and over different time periods. On the contrary, statistical arbitrage strategies involving the three traditional crude oil futures (Brent, WTI, Dubai) do not yield profitable investment opportunities. Our findings suggest that the Shanghai futures, which has already become the benchmark for the Chinese domestic crude oil market, can be a valuable asset for international investors.
    Date: 2023–09
  14. By: Xinyu Li (PBL Netherlands); Marco Haan (University of Amsterdam); Sander Onderstal (University of Groningen); Jasper Veldman (University of Amsterdam)
    Abstract: Globally, governments increasingly rely on auctions to advance renewable energy. This paper studies the design of wind farm auctions and evaluates the impact of price guarantees and subsidies on auction efficiency, government revenue, and renewable-energy production. While the theoretical analysis suggests that the price guarantee has no effect, our laboratory experiment suggests that the price guarantee improves efficiency and that it often increases production and revenue. An important explanation for these results is that less risk averse subjects tend to bid less aggressively and produce less. Without the price guarantee, and hence with more uncertainty in the auction, this increases the chances that risk-loving bidders win the auction, thus compromising auction efficiency. The subsidy is less effective than suggested by theory. Bidders with a higher valuation tend to bid more conservatively than the equilibrium prediction, thus neutralizing the efficiency-enhancing effect of the subsidy.
    Keywords: Auctions, Experiments, Wind farms, Renewable energy
    JEL: C92 D44 F64 H23 Q58
    Date: 2023–08–03
  15. By: Rosa van den Ende (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Universität Bielefeld = Bielefeld University); Antoine Mandel (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Agnieszka Rusinowska (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: We provide an axiomatic approach to the allocation of responsibility for GHG emissions in supply chains. Considering a set of axioms standardly used in networks and decision theory, and consistent with legal principles underlying responsibility, we show that responsibility measures shall be based on exponential discounting of upstream and downstream emissions. From a network theory perspective, the proposed responsibility measure corresponds to a convex combination of the Bonacich centralities for the upstream and downstream weighted adjacency matrices. Scope 1 emissions, consumption-based accounting and income-based accounting are obtained as particular cases of our approach, which also gives a precise meaning to scope 3 emissions while avoiding double-counting. We apply our approach to the assessment of country-level responsibility for global GHG emissions and to sector-level responsibility in the USA. We examine how the responsibility of sectors/countries varies with the discounting of indirect emissions. We identify three groups of countries/sectors: producers of emissions whose responsibility decreases with the discounting factor, consumers of emissions whose responsibility increases with the discounting factor, and an intermediary group whose responsibility mostly depends on the network position and varies non-monotonically with the discounting factor. Overall, our axiomatic approach provides strong normative foundations for the definition of reporting requirements for indirect emissions and for the allocation of responsibility in claims for climate-related loss and damage.
    Keywords: upstream and downstream emission responsibilities, supply chains and networks, responsibility measure, axiomatization, Bonacich centrality
    Date: 2023–08
  16. By: Claude Ménard; Ivan Shabalov (Central Research Institute of Ferrous Metallurgy I.P. Bardina, Russia); Andrey Shastitko (MSU - Lomonosov Moscow State University, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: This article examines the institutional setting implemented by a fragmented industry to face a technologically and politically challenging environment. It does so through the lens of recent developments in new institutional economics building on the Williamsonian contributions about hybrid organizations and the Northian contributions about institutional layers. The resulting analytical framework throws light on the institutional design implemented by the Russian manufacturers of large diameter pipes, a strategic segment of the natural gas supply chain. Examination of this arrangement shows the key role of intermediary institutions, coined ‘meso-institutions, ' in coordinating parties that nevertheless remain competitors. However, this ‘economizing strategy, ' backed by the central government, collides with the ‘anti-monopoly' strategy that the same government intends to implement. Based on interviews and private and public data and documents, this narrative shows the impact of technology on organizational choices and the theoretical gains to be expected from differentiating institutional layers when it comes to understanding the many challenges an industry faces.
    Keywords: Gas industry, Organizations, Institutions, Regulation, Governance, Political interference
    Date: 2021–10
  17. By: Donatella Gatti (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Université Sorbonne Paris Nord); Gaye del Lo (UL - Université de Lorraine, CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord); Francisco Serranito (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper identifies the determinants of OECD Environmental Policy Stringency (EPS) index using a panel of 21 European countries for the period 2009-2019. If there is a large literature on the macroeconomic, political, and social determinants of EPS, the people's attitudes or preferences toward environmental policies is still burgeoning. Thus, the main goal of this paper is to estimate the effects of people's awareness regarding environmental issues on the EPS indicator. Due to the endogeneity of preferences, we have applied an instrumental variable framework to estimate our empirical model. Our most important result is to show that individual environmental preferences have a positive and significant effect on the level of EPS indicator : on average, a rise in individual preferences of 10% in a country will increase its EPS indicator by 2.30%. Our results have important policy implications.
    Abstract: Cet article étudie les déterminants de l'indicateur de rigueur des politiques environnementales (EPS) de l'OCDE en utilisant un panel de 21 pays européens pour la période 2009-2019. S'il existe une littérature abondante sur les déterminants macroéconomiques, politiques et sociaux de l'indicateur EPS, les attitudes ou préférences des citoyens à l'égard des politiques environnementales sont encore très peu étudiées. L'objectif principal de cet article est d'estimer les effets de la sensibilisation de la population aux questions environnementales sur l'indicateur EPS. En raison de l'endogénéité des préférences, nous avons appliqué un cadre de variables instrumentales pour estimer notre modèle empirique. Notre résultat principal est de montrer que les préférences environnementales individuelles ont un effet positif et significatif sur le niveau de l'indicateur EPS : en moyenne, une augmentation des préférences individuelles de 10% dans un pays augmentera l'indicateur EPS de 2, 30%. Ces résultats ont des implications importantes au niveau des politiques environnementales.
    Keywords: Environmental policy stringency, Environmental attitudes/concerns, inequality, environmental Kuznets curve, EU
    Date: 2023–08–25
  18. By: Ruba Aljarallah (Public Authority for Applied Education and Training)
    Abstract: It is mostly the countries in the Gulf region that are blessed with natural resources that are faced with significant resource capital management challenges. As a result, these nations' capacity to utilize their blessed natural resources in the creation of goods that can be exported is reduced. Through the utilization of time-series data spanning the years 2000-2020, the research examined the main critical components that are responsible for causing damage to the ecosystem in five Gulf countries mainly, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, and Oman. The utilization of resource rents rather than resource value is a direct result of this phenomenon. According to the findings, mineral resource rents are the most significant determinants of the resource, which depletes mineral resources, in addition, economic activity and the renting out of resources also raise the ecological footprint. Industrialization also increases the ecological footprint in Gulf countries. According to the findings, it is vital to enact different resource regulations and policies that could be based on incentives to reduce the ecological footprints and the consumption of natural resources.
    Keywords: Ecological footprint, Resource rent, Developing countries, Regulation, Environment
    JEL: Q30 Q50 Q57
  19. By: Mao, Haiou; Görg, Holger; Fang, Guopei
    Abstract: We look at divestments by foreign firms - a topic that has received comparatively little attention in the literature - and investigate how changes in the regulatory environment in the host country may impact on such divestment decisions. We use the implementation of China's Two Control Zone (TCZ) policy as a "quasi-natural experiment", using detailed firm level combined with city level data for the empirical analysis. Our results show that the implementation of TCZ policy has led to higher probabilities of divestments by foreign firms in targeted TCZ cities and industries. The mechanism behind this seems to be a TCZ-induced increase in discharge fees and efforts to reduce SO2 emissions. Allowing for heterogeneity of effects, we find that the effect is particularly strong for firms from source countries with less stringent environmental regulation, and those using less advanced technology. We furthermore show that firms using intermediates from polluting industries also experience a higher probability of divestment.
    Keywords: foreign divestment, environmental regulation, Two Control Zone Policy, China
    JEL: F23 Q58
    Date: 2023
  20. By: Chi-Young Choi; Alexander Chudik
    Abstract: This paper develops Mean Group Distributed Lag (MGDL) estimation of impulse responses in large panels with one or two cross-section dimensions. Sufficient conditions for asymptotic consistency and asymptotic normality are derived, and satisfactory small sample performance is documented using Monte Carlo experiments. MGDL estimators are used to estimate the effects of crude oil price increases on U.S. city- and product-level retail prices.
    Keywords: panel data; impulse response functions; estimation; inference; Mean Group Distributed Lag (MGDL)
    JEL: C23
    Date: 2023–09–22
  21. By: Stefan Pollinger (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper demonstrates that kinks or discontinuities in incentive schemes (e.g., taxes, subsidies, or prices) simultaneously identify agents' intensive and participation margin responses. The proposed semi-nonparametric estimator enables the evaluation of such schemes when existing kink and discontinuity methods are inapplicable due to the presence of both margins. The paper applies the estimator to evaluate the German subsidy for rooftop solar panels, a cornerstone in the global efforts to transit towards a carbon-free economy. Compared to a linear scheme, the government's nonlinear subsidy reduces costs by 0.14 per cent; an optimal nonlinear scheme would more than triple this gain. Ignoring the participation margin when optimising the subsidy would increase costs substantially. The results highlight the importance of estimating both margins for optimal policy design.
    Keywords: Participation Margin, Solar Subsidies, Nonlinear Incentive Schemes, Bunching
    Date: 2023–08–17
  22. By: Thorvaldur Gylfason; Jean-Pascal N. Nganou
    Abstract: Economic diversification has gained significant attention as a crucial factor for sustainable development worldwide. This paper addresses the risks associated with extreme specialisation and explores the potential benefits of economic diversification for Mongolia. By comparing Mongolia with its designated aspirational and structural peers, the paper aims to shed light on strategies that can foster economic and societal diversification in the country. Although Mongolia possesses favourable levels of human capital compared with its peers, its unusually high ratio of natural capital to human capital highlights the necessity of reducing reliance on natural resources and promoting human capital-intensive economic activities. The paper examines the implications of declining demand for Mongolia's key minerals, primarily coal, resulting from climate change concerns and evolving investor preferences towards sustainability, China's coal consumption reduction goals, and the enduring impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Through this analysis, the paper offers insights into pathways for Mongolia to diversify its economy and enhance the well-being of its people by striking a balance between natural resources and human and social capital.
    Keywords: Economic growth, Economic diversification, Natural resources, Human capital, Social capital, Governance, Democracy, Transition
    JEL: O11 O13 O15
    Date: 2023–09
  23. By: Charles Kenny (Center for Global Development); Zack Gehan (Center for Global Development)
    Abstract: We develop scenarios for the shape of the global economy in 2050 building on a simple regression of the historic relationship between current income and lagged income, demographic features, climate, and education, using the coefficients to develop a “central” forecast and error terms to set high and low bounds on country outcomes. Scenarios examine combinations of low and high outcomes for different country groupings. “Central” forecasts suggest slowing per capita growth rates for high income countries as well as many upper middle income countries including China, with continued global income convergence. Scenario exercises suggest the potential for considerable variation in outcomes including global share of the economy and voting power in international institutions.
    Keywords: economic forecasts, global growth, international governance
    JEL: C53 E66 F01
    Date: 2023–03–06
  24. By: Santino Del Fava (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa); Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Holstenhofweg 85, P.O.B. 700822, 22008 Hamburg, Germany); Lavinia Rognone (University of Edinburgh Business School, 29 Buccleuch Place, Edinburgh, EH8 9JS, United Kingdom)
    Abstract: We study the predictive value of climate risks for subsequent financial stress in a sample of daily data running from October 2006 to December 2022 of thirteen countries, which include China, ten European Union (EU) countries, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States (US). The climate risk indicators are the result of a text-based approach which combines the term frequency-inverse document frequency and the cosine-similarity techniques. Given the persistence of financial stress as well as the importance of spillover effects of financial stress from other countries, we use random forests, a machine-learning technique tailored to handle many predictors, to estimate our forecasting models. Our findings show that climate risks tend to have a moderate impact, albeit in several cases statistically significant, on predictive accuracy, which tends to be stronger, in our cross-section of countries, on a daily than at a weekly or monthly forecast horizon of financial stress. Furthermore, the predictive value of climate risks for financial stress is heterogeneous across the countries in our sample, implying that a univariate forecasting model appears to be better suited than a corresponding multivariate one. Finally, the predictive value of climate risks for financial stress appears to be stronger in several countries at the lower conditional quantiles of financial stress.
    Keywords: Financial stress, Climate risks, Random forests, Forecasting
    JEL: C22 C32 C53 G15 Q54
    Date: 2023–09
  25. By: Serenella Caravella; Francesco Crespi; Giacomo Cucignatto; Dario Guarascio
    Abstract: This work sheds new light on the Photovoltaic Supply Chain (PVSC), providing fresh evidence on structural dependencies (SDs) and (asymmetrically distributed) technological capabilities. Bridging the perspectives of 'technological sovereignty' and 'strategic autonomy', a number of contributions are provided. First, we carry out a fine-grained mapping of the PVSC, combining trade and patent data. Second, we assess the long-term evolution of trade and technological hierarchies, documenting processes of polarization and growing SDs. Third, we zoom-in on critical PV areas (i.e. products and related technologies), providing a 'strategic intelligence' activity which may prove useful for tailoring trade, industrial and innovation policies. Fourth, we explore the relationship between technological specialization and productive capabilities showing that, in the upstream segment, reinforcing the former may help mitigating SDs.
    Keywords: Technological sovereignty; Strategic dependency; Photovoltaic industry; Trade, Patents
    JEL: C23 F18 O31 O38 Q42
    Date: 2023–09

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