nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2023‒09‒18
twenty-two papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet, National University of Singapore

  1. Subsidies for Close Substitutes: Evidence from Residential Solar Systems By Abajian, Alexander; Pretnar, Nick
  2. Have climate policies been effective in Austria? A reverse causal analysis By Talis Tebecis
  3. Show Me the Money! Incentives and Nudges to Shift Electric Vehicle Charge Timing By Bailey, Megan R.; Brown, David P.; Shaffer, Blake; Wolak, Frank A.
  4. Climate Policy and Trade in Polluting Technologies By Ferguson, Shon; Heijmans, Roweno J.R.K.
  5. Social welfare Promotion, Carbon Emission and Tax By Ellalee, Haider; Alali, Walid Y.
  6. Promoting renewable energy consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa: how capital flight crowds-out the favorable effect of foreign aid By Simplice A. Asongu; Joel Hinaunye Eita
  7. External assurance of carbon disclosures indicates possible underestimates in reported European corporate emissions data By Papadopoulos, Georgios
  8. Workers and the Green-Energy Transition: Evidence from 300 Million Job Transitions By E. Mark Curtis; Layla O'Kane; R. Jisung Park
  9. Climate Change Salience and Electricity Consumption: Evidence from Twitter Activity By Bonan, Jacopo; Curzi, Daniele; D'Adda, Giovanna; Ferro, Simone
  10. New Passenger Vehicle Demand Elasticities: Estimates and Policy Implications By Leard, Benjamin; Wu, Yidi
  11. Oil Price Shocks and Inflation By Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou
  12. RICE-MED, an integrated assessment model for the Mediterranean basin: assessing the climate-economy-agriculture nexus By Castelli, Chiara; Castellini, Marta; Gusperti, Camilla; Lupi, Veronica; Vergalli, Sergio
  13. Regulating Artificial Intelligence in the EU, United States and China - Implications for energy systems By Fabian Heymann; Konstantinos Parginos; Ali Hariri; Gabriele Franco
  14. It's not a sprint, it's a marathon: Reviewing governmental R&D support for environmental innovation By Meißner, Leonie; Peterson, Sonja; Semrau, Finn Ole
  15. Managing an Energy Shock: Fiscal and Monetary Policy By Adrien Auclert; Hugo Monnery; Matthew Rognlie; Ludwig Straub
  16. Going Green – The Growth in Green Mortgage Financing in Ireland By Lambert, Derek; Lyons, Paul; Carroll, James
  17. Network-based allocation of responsibility for GHG emissions By Rosa Van Den Ende; Antoine Mandel; Agnieszka Rusinowska
  18. Green Skills in German Manufacturing By Oliver Falck; Akash Kaura
  19. Climate Change Strategy and India's Federalism By Jorge Martinez-Vazquez; Farah Zahir
  20. Urban Forests: Environmental Health Values and Risks By Jianwei Xing; Zhiren Hu; Fan Xia; Jintao Xu; Eric Zou
  21. Temperature and Local Industry Concentration By Jacopo Ponticelli; Qiping Xu; Stefan Zeume
  22. Inefficient coasean negotiations over emissions and transfers By B.A. Caparros; Jean-Christophe Pereau

  1. By: Abajian, Alexander; Pretnar, Nick
    Abstract: Policies promoting residential solar system adoption are designed assuming the associated generation displaces retail electricity purchases on a one-for-one basis. This assumption is not innocuous; electricity from residential solar systems is unlikely to be perfectly substitutable with grid electricity. We estimate a model of U.S. residential electricity demand allowing for spatial heterogeneity and imperfect substitution between forms of electricity to quantify the implications for green energy subsidization. We find subsidies inducing one kWh of residential solar electricity demand displace only 0.5 kWh of grid consumption. As an emissions reduction policy subsidies had national abatement costs of $332 per MTCO2 in 2018.
    Keywords: Residential PV systems, residential electricity demand, rebound effects, energy subsidies
    JEL: H23 Q42 Q48 R23
    Date: 2023–08–09
  2. By: Talis Tebecis (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)
    Abstract: Around the world, countries are becoming more ambitious in their emission reduction pledges. Developing policies to actually meet these targets requires carefully evaluating which policies have been most effective at reducing emissions to date. We use reverse causal policy evaluation to answer this question, asking, “Which climate policies have reduced CO2 emissions the most in Austria since 1995?” This novel approach allows us to identify negative structural breaks, i.e. large reductions in emissions that are not accounted for by the main determinants of CO2 emissions (population and economic growth), and attribute these breaks to relevant policies. We find statistically significant breaks in only four out of 21 sectors, altogether representing a reduction of less than 2.5% of Austria’s total CO2 emissions beyond what would have been expected, given its socio-economic development, which is significantly shy of the country’s 48% emission reduction target.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions, climate policy, reverse causal analysis, Austria, structural breaks
    JEL: Q54 Q58
    Date: 2023–08
  3. By: Bailey, Megan R. (University of Calgary); Brown, David P. (University of Alberta, Department of Economics); Shaffer, Blake (University of Calgary); Wolak, Frank A. (Stanford University)
    Abstract: We use a field experiment to measure the effectiveness of financial incentives and moral suasion “nudges” to shift the timing of electric vehicle (EV) charging. We find EV owners respond strongly to financial incentives, while nudges have no statistically discernible effect. When financial incentives are removed, charge timing reverts to pre-intervention behavior, showing no evidence of habit formation and reinforcing our finding that “money matters”. Our charge price responsiveness estimate is an order of magnitude larger than typical household electricity consumption elasticities. This result highlights the greater flexibility of EV charging over other forms of residential electricity demand.
    Keywords: Electric Vehicles; Demand Response; Nudges; Experiment
    JEL: Q41 Q48 Q55 Q58 R48
    Date: 2023–08–30
  4. By: Ferguson, Shon (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU)); Heijmans, Roweno J.R.K. (Department of Business and Management Science, NHH Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: This study estimates the impact of carbon pricing on international trade in equipment used in the combustion of fossil fuels during the period 1995–2021. Using detailed data on bilateral trade combined with data on domestic carbon prices, we find that carbon pricing policies are associated with greater exports of this equipment. We provide a simple model of international trade in polluting technologies that can explain this outcome. Our results provide new evidence for this unexplored form of leakage due to more stringent climate policies.
    Keywords: Emissions pricing; Cap and trade; Carbon leakage; International trade in technologies
    JEL: F14 F18 Q37 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2023–08–14
  5. By: Ellalee, Haider; Alali, Walid Y.
    Abstract: The objective of this research is to find the preferable carbon taxation regime to achieve net-zero carbon emissions and enhance social welfare levels. Two regimes were discussed in this paper, including a carbon tax at the aggregate level of social welfare (CTTW) and a carbon tax at the level of single social welfare (CTSW). The results present a preferable regime depending on the substitution of the product and product price flexibility of demand. Not only does industrial transformation bring about changes in the substitution of the product and demand flexibility in product prices, but as well both regimes also have a serious effect on achieving net zero carbon emissions and enhancing the level of social welfare.
    Keywords: Social welfare, Carbon Tax, Carbon Emission, Environment
    JEL: B22 C33 E65 D12 I13 Q48
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Joel Hinaunye Eita (Johannesburg, South Africa)
    Abstract: The study assesses the effect of capital flight in the nexus between foreign aid and renewable energy consumption in 20 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa using data for the period 1996-2018. The empirical technique employed is interactive quantile regressions and the following findings are established. Foreign aid increases renewable energy consumption while capital flight dampens the favorable effect of foreign aid on renewable energy consumption. The underlying significance and corresponding mitigating effect are exclusively relevant to the bottom (i.e., 10th) quantile of the conditional distribution of renewable energy consumption. The findings are robust to simultaneity and the unobserved heterogeneity. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Foreign aid; capital flight; renewable energy; sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: H10 Q20 Q30 O11 O55
    Date: 2023–01
  7. By: Papadopoulos, Georgios (European Commission)
    Abstract: Company carbon disclosures are crucial in assessing a firm's impact on the environment, and many policy actions are associated with this information. As a response to the increasing demand for transparency, many firms disclose carbon emissions through sustainability reports and voluntarily engage with external assurance of the reported information. However, the possible existence of systematic differences in reported emissions with respect to their assurance status is still under-explored. This study investigates the causal effect of third-party assurance on carbon disclosures in a sample of European companies. Findings suggest that non-assuring firms may be under-reporting their direct GHG emissions by up to a magnitude comparable to the largest annual reduction of EU emissions in history. On the contrary, the effect of assurance is much weaker to almost absent in indirect, Scope 2, emissions possibly due to their clear and easily verifiable estimation nature. The findings demonstrate that third-party assurance can provide more reliable and certainly more prudent estimates of corporate GHG emissions which are relevant to corporate sustainability strategy, policymaking and, ultimately, climate change mitigation.
    Keywords: external assurance, corporate carbon disclosure, company GHG emissions, climate change
    JEL: M42 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2023–08
  8. By: E. Mark Curtis; Layla O'Kane; R. Jisung Park
    Abstract: Using micro-data representing over 130 million online work profiles, we explore transitions into and out of jobs most likely to be affected by a transition away from carbon-intensive production technologies. Exploiting detailed textual data on job title, firm name, occupation, and industry to focus on workers employed in carbon-intensive (“dirty”) and non-carbon-intensive (“green”) jobs, we find that the rate of transition from dirty to green jobs is rising rapidly, increasing ten-fold over the period 2005-2021 including a significant uptick in EV-related jobs in recent years. Overall however, fewer than 1 percent of all workers who leave a dirty job appear to transition to a green job. We find that the persistence of employment within dirty industries varies enormously across local labor markets; in some states, over half of all transitions out of dirty jobs are into other dirty jobs. Older workers and those without a college education appear less likely to make transitions to green jobs, and more likely to transition to other dirty jobs, other jobs, or non-employment. When accounting for the fact that green jobs tend to have later start dates, it appears that green and dirty jobs have roughly comparable job durations.
    JEL: J01 Q0 Q4 Q5
    Date: 2023–08
  9. By: Bonan, Jacopo; Curzi, Daniele; D'Adda, Giovanna; Ferro, Simone
    Abstract: We employ electricity-use data covering 1, 500, 000 Italian households for 2015–2019 and a granular measure of social media attention to climate change derived from universal-coverage Twitter data to show that increases in climate change salience induced by exogenous sociopolitical and climatic events cause a significant reduction in energy consumption. Sentiment analysis suggests that natural disasters and climate strikes are associated with emotions that are strong motivators for action. These results imply that episodes that draw attention to climate change may lead to actual behavioral change, but their effect is short-lived.
    Date: 2023–08–24
  10. By: Leard, Benjamin (Resources for the Future); Wu, Yidi
    Abstract: We apply a simple methodology to estimate own- and cross-price elasticities of new passenger vehicle demand based on household-level survey data. Our methodology combines own-price elasticity estimates with diversion fractions constructed from second-choice data. We obtain a set of elasticities that are relevant for policy analysis, including an aggregate market elasticity, a matrix of car and light truck elasticities, and a matrix of gasoline and electric vehicle (EV) elasticities. Our results have implications for evaluating incidence of fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards for passenger vehicles and policies for increasing EV adoption.
    Date: 2023–08–23
  11. By: Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou
    Abstract: Despite growing interest in the impact of oil and other energy price shocks on inflation and inflation expectations, until recently this question has not received much attention. This survey not only presents empirical results for the U.S. economy, but expands the analysis to include other major economies. We find that only in the euro area and in the U.K. energy price shocks are associated with a material increase in core consumer prices. This helps explain the somewhat more persistent response of headline inflation in these countries than in the U.S. or Canada. Inflation is even less sensitive to energy price shocks in Japan. We document that energy price shocks played a more important role in explaining headline inflation in the euro area in 2021 and 2022 than in the U.S. This does not mean that energy price shocks have de-anchored inflation expectations, however. While suitable data on long-run inflation expectations are scant, neither for the U.S. nor the U.K. is there evidence that energy price shocks have materially changed long-run inflation expectations.
    Keywords: inflation; oil price; gasoline price; inflation expectation; wage-price spiral
    JEL: E31 Q43
    Date: 2023–08–24
  12. By: Castelli, Chiara; Castellini, Marta; Gusperti, Camilla; Lupi, Veronica; Vergalli, Sergio
    Abstract: In this work we update the regionalization and the calibration of the Regional dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE) in its 1999 version developed by Nordhaus and Boyer (2000), with a focus on the Mediterranean countries. Our aim is to assess the impact of climate change damages on their main macroeconomic variables in a context where all economies are fossil fuel based. In addition, we extend the model by introducing the uncertainty associated with a possible future catastrophic event, triggered by the temperature increase and variation over time, following the approach of Castelnuovo et al. (2003). We then develop an empirical exercise to asses the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector at country level. In this framework, we implement the traditional IAMs scenarios, namely the Business As Usual, the Social Optimum and the Temperature Limit, where population dynamics is calibrated according to the IIASA SSP2 projections. Among our findings, we show that, in the absence of renewable energy sources and break-through technologies, meeting the limit of a temperature increase of less than 2°C requires a carbon tax of more than 700 USD/tC by 2050, doubling by the end of this century. When uncertainty is introduced, the higher the probability of a possible catastrophic event and the greater the associated utility loss, the more society is willing to pay for a rising cost of carbon. The upward trend of the carbon tax relative to the no-uncertainty model is reduced by the end of the century in the temperature-limit scenario, due to the benefits associated with this policy and the inclusion in the model of societal awareness of the potential risks of climate change. In both versions of the model, the agricultural sector in the Southern Mediterranean countries is severely affected, and stringent policies can partially mitigate these impacts and reduce damages by 2100.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2023–09–04
  13. By: Fabian Heymann (SFOE - Swiss Federal Office of Energy); Konstantinos Parginos (PERSEE - Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ali Hariri (EPFL - Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne); Gabriele Franco (PANETTA Law Firm)
    Abstract: The growing prevalence and potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on society rises the need for regulation. In return, the shape of regulations will affect the application potential of AI across all economic sectors. This study compares the approaches to regulate AI in the European Union (EU), the United States (US) and China (CN). We then apply the findings of our comparative analysis on the energy sector, assessing the effects of each regulatory approach on the operation of a AI-based short-term electricity demand forecasting application. Our findings show that operationalizing AI applications will face very different challenges across geographies, with important implications for policy making and business development.
    Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, energy policy, load fore- casting, regulation
    Date: 2023–10–23
  14. By: Meißner, Leonie; Peterson, Sonja; Semrau, Finn Ole
    Abstract: In a race against excessive global warming, the world must accelerate the development and adoption of environmental innovations (EIs). EIs are crucial in decarbonizing the economy and meeting the netzero targets. In this literature review, we delve into the role of governments in promoting EIs across stages of maturity and the likeliness of such support to reduce emissions and mitigation costs. Various theoretical justifications, such as knowledge externalities, dynamic increasing returns, path dependency and incomplete information, highlight the necessity to promote EI through governmental Research and Development (R&D) support. While emission pricing remains the most cost-efficient climate policy, it fails as a stand-alone instrument to sufficiently encourage EI. Accordingly, the optimal approach is a policy mix complementing emission pricing with governmental R&D support. The theoretical finding is backed by empirical studies on the development and deployment of renewable energies, which also show that investment in R&D can effectively reduce emissions and mitigation costs. By combining theoretical and empirical research, the review concludes by examining two pivotal policy actions aimed at accelerating the take-off of EIs: The US Inflation Reduction Act and the European Green New Deal Industrial Plan. We evaluate their specific aspects and limitations to effectively and efficiently contribute to decarbonization.
    Date: 2023
  15. By: Adrien Auclert; Hugo Monnery; Matthew Rognlie; Ludwig Straub
    Abstract: This paper studies the macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks in energy-importing economies using a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model. When MPCs are realistically large and the elasticity of substitution between energy and domestic goods is realistically low, increases in energy prices depress real incomes and cause a recession, even if the central bank does not tighten monetary policy. Imported energy inflation can spill over to wage inflation through a wage-price spiral, but this does not mitigate the decline in real wages. Monetary tightening has limited effect on imported inflation when done in isolation, but can be powerful when done in coordination with other energy importers by lowering world energy demand. Fiscal policy, especially energy price subsidies, can isolate individual energy importers from the shock, but it has large negative externalities on other economies.
    JEL: E52 F42 Q43
    Date: 2023–08
  16. By: Lambert, Derek (Central Bank of Ireland); Lyons, Paul (Central Bank of Ireland); Carroll, James (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: Green mortgages are a recent financial innovation, being established as a mainstream product in Ireland in 2019. By offering borrowers lower interest rates, green mortgages support wider emissions targets by incentivizing households and businesses to invest in energy efficiency. In this Note, we estimate the growth in green mortgage financing in Ireland and describe the characteristics of green mortgage borrowers and loans. We find that, despite their very recent introduction, green mortgages account for a sizable and growing share of mortgage lending, representing almost thirty per cent of originations in 2022. We also find that first time buyers (FTBs), those switching their mortgage, and borrowers in the Leinster region are the most likely cohorts to avail of green mortgages. Furthermore, green mortgage loan amounts are larger, are associated with higher value properties and are more prevalent in higher income groups, particularly for FTBs. This latter point suggests that there is a risk that the efficiency gap between high and low income groups could widen into the future. We also find evidence that some eligible borrowers have not availed of/received a green mortgage.
    Date: 2023–05
  17. By: Rosa Van Den Ende (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne and Universität Bielefeld); Antoine Mandel (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Paris School of Economics); Agnieszka Rusinowska (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, CNRS, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: We provide an axiomatic approach to the allocation of responsibility for GHG emissions in supply chains. Considering a set of axioms standardly used in networks and decision theory, and consistent with legal principles underlying responsibility, we show that responsibility measures shall be based on exponential discounting of upstream and downstream emissions. From a network theory perspective, the proposed responsibility measure corresponds to a convex combination of the Bonacich centralities for the upstream and downstream weighted adjacency matrices. Scope 1 emissions, consumption-based accounting and income-based accounting are obtained as particular cases of our approach, wich also gives a precise meaning to scope 3 emissions while avoiding double-counting. We apply our approach to the assessment of country-level responsibility for global GHG emissions and to sector-level responsibility in the USA. We examine how the responsibility of sectors/countries varies with the discounting of indirect emissions. We identify three groups of countries/sectors: producers of emissions whose responsibiliy decreases with the discounting factor, consumers of emissions whose responsibility increases with the discounting factor, and an intermediary group whose responsibility mostly depends on the network position and varies non-monotonically with the discounting factor. Overall, our axiomatic approach provides strong normative foundations for the definition of reporting requirements for indirect emissions and for the allocation of responsibility in claims for climate-related loss and damage
    Keywords: upstream and downstream emission responsibilities; supply chains and networks; responsibility measure; axiomatization; Bonacich centrality
    JEL: D85 Q5
    Date: 2023–08
  18. By: Oliver Falck; Akash Kaura
    Abstract: For all its perennial focus on traditional industries, Germany has done a remarkable job in greening its manufacturing Green skills are quickly gaining prominence Automotive manufacturing is leading the way Germany is still a hotbed of innovation, but cannot afford to become complacent
    Date: 2023
  19. By: Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University); Farah Zahir (The World Bank)
    Abstract: This paper calls for a stronger and closer intergovernmental coordinated approach to fighting climate change in India. We argue that the current commonly proposed approach to fighting climate change in India based on sectoral policies (energy generation, transport sectors, etc.) is incomplete because it fails to specify what level of government will be in-charge on regulating and implementing those policies and how they will be financed. This will require understanding how the institutions of fiscal decentralization are framed and operate in India. The paper takes stock of current institutions and practices involving the four pillars of fiscal decentralization. Getting the functional assignment of responsibilities right will offer an answer to the question of who will be charged with regulating and monitoring compliance with the different sectoral policies for decarbonization and adaptation. Getting the other three pillars right will allow us to answer the question of financing. India seems to have the right framework of concurrent assignments of responsibilities, with the union government establishing minimum standards to prevent a race to the bottom among the states. The main problem appears to be that currently standards and regulations are not enforced. States currently work with insufficient revenues, raising questions about the necessary fiscal space to finance their climate change policies. There is also a need to reengineer India’s current transfer policies to incentivize the states in fighting climate change. Adapting the last pillar of decentralization, borrowing, will be critical to help finance the large investments, especially in the case of adaptation programs.
    Date: 2023–08
  20. By: Jianwei Xing; Zhiren Hu; Fan Xia; Jintao Xu; Eric Zou
    Abstract: Forests accompany the cities we build. There are an estimated 5.5 billion urban trees in the United States. Globally, about 25 percent of urban land is covered by tree canopy. This study examines urban forests as a policy tool for air pollution mitigation. We study an afforestation program in the city of Beijing, which planted a total of 2 million mu of greenery – roughly the size of Los Angeles – across the city over a decade. We conduct a remote-sensing audit of the program, finding that it contributes to a substantial greening up of the city. This causes significant downwind air quality improvement, reducing average `PM_2.5` concentration at city population hubs by 4.2 percent. Rapid vegetation growth, however, led to a 7.4 percent increase in pollen exposure. Analysis of medical claims data shows aeroallergens triggered emergency room visits, mirroring well-documented industrial pollution effects though less severe. We offer insight on managing urban forests’ health risks, identifying harmful pollen species and susceptible population subgroups.
    JEL: I18 Q23 Q53 Q56 R11
    Date: 2023–08
  21. By: Jacopo Ponticelli; Qiping Xu; Stefan Zeume
    Abstract: We use plant-level data from the US Census of Manufacturers to study the short and long run effects of temperature on manufacturing activity. We document that temperature shocks significantly increase energy costs and lower the productivity of small manufacturing plants, while large plants are mostly unaffected. In US counties that experienced higher increases in average temperatures between the 1980s and the 2010s, these heterogeneous effects have led to higher concentration of manufacturing activity within large plants, and a reallocation of labor from small to large manufacturing establishments. We offer a preliminary discussion of potential mechanisms explaining why large manufacturing firms might be better equipped for long-run adaptation to climate change, including their ability to hedge across locations, easier access to finance, and higher managerial skills.
    JEL: G3 L11 O14 Q54
    Date: 2023–08
  22. By: B.A. Caparros; Jean-Christophe Pereau (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This article analyses the outcomes of multilateral and sequential negotiation procedures in a Rubinstein alternating-offers model where two polluters and a victim bargain over both, transfers and pollution levels. We show that the Coase Theorem does not hold in a multilateral framework if sequential negotiations are possible (not imposed), although there are no frictions and no delays between stages. Sequential negotiations lead to emission levels which are not socially optimal, but players involved in the first agreement in the sequential path may prefer this path and hence launch it. We also show that when negotiations focus only on transfers, as commonly assumed, the inefficiency vanishes. Finally, we show that the inefficiency can be explained by the player's inside options, which are given by their potential temporary disagreement payoffs, despite the fact that agreements are reached immediately in equilibrium. Results are generalized to a large number of polluters. © 2021 Elsevier B.V.
    Date: 2021–09

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