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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Jacques Minlend (Université de Rennes, CNRS, CREM-UMR6211, F-35000 Rennes, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes text-as-data methods relying on unsupervised machine learning algorithms applied to European Union (EU) law acts and newspapers. These are used to construct two monthly indices over a reference period 1997-2021: (i) First, a news-based index which underlies a conjunctural uncertainty about the international context in which the global energy and environment policy evolves (EnvPU). (ii) Second, a laws-based index which reflects structural changes of the European energy and environment regulations (EnvP). The main findings suggest both indices display, in some extent, a common evolutionary pattern around salient events in the history of the EU energy and environment policy. Moreover, EnvPU index appears to be more volatile and is driven in the short-run by EnvP index. Given the support of such a policy to carbon phase-out, we further examine, in what extent, each index relates to price uncertainty dynamics in fossil energy markets (oil, gas, and coal). As a result, we uncover that, increase in news-based EnvPU index has a positive impact on price uncertainty of all fossil energy markets, the effect being stronger and more significant for gas and coal markets. In contrast, while an exogenous shock in laws-based EnvP index has a negative effect on price uncertainty in oil and gas markets, it tends to increase the coal price uncertainty. Overall, EnvP index depicts a stabilizing effect on fossil energy prices. |
| Keywords: | Energy and Environment Policy; News and media; Text-mining; Unsupervised machine learning; Commodity markets; Structural VAR. |
| JEL: | Q58 C55 C80 D80 Q02 C32 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tut:cremwp:2023-04&r=ene |
| By: | Chen, Y.-H. Henry; Paltsev, Sergey; Gurgel, Angelo; Reilly, John; Morris, Jennifer |
| Abstract: | The MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model has been widely used in energy, land use, technology, and climate policy studies. Here we provide details of revisions that form the basis of EPPA7, the current version. Key updates include: 1) using the latest Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP-power) database as the core economic data for the world economy; 2) updating regional economic growth projections; 3) separating extant and vintage capital of the previously aggregated fossil generation; 4) using an innovative approach to calculate the costs of backstop (i.e., advanced) power generation options based on engineering data from the Energy Information Administration; 5) identifying base year biofuel output from existing sectors; and 6) re-parameterizing electric vehicles based on recent studies. Our simulations demonstrate that with widespread mitigation policies worldwide, regions relying heavily on fossil fuel imports benefit from lower global fossil fuel prices when their domestic emissions targets are lenient, but the benefits dissipate when deeper emissions cuts are imposed domestically. We also provide an illustration how the model output can be used to calculate the net present values of unrealized fossil fuel production and stranded assets from idling coal power generation under various policy scenarios. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333493&r=ene |
| By: | Fournier Gabela, Julio G.; Freund, Florian |
| Abstract: | Achieving climate targets requires more stringent mitigation policies, including the participation of economic sectors beyond energy-intensive industries. However, what this implies for carbon leakage risks remains largely an open question. This paper aims to fill this gap by assessing potential carbon leakage risk for all sectors under varying climate policy scopes covering GHG emissions along global supply chains. To measure this risk, we use the emission-intensity and trade-exposure metric and emission data including CO2 and non-CO2 gasses. Under a uniform carbon price and assuming full carbon cost pass-through, we find that carbon leakage risk in downstream sectors can be as high as in sectors whose direct GHG emissions are subject to carbon pricing. We also find that agri-food and transport sectors have, on average, a higher potential risk than energy-intensive industries. Our results highlight the importance of developing sound anti-leakage mechanisms tailored to each sector’s characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333468&r=ene |
| By: | Bacchetta, Marc; Bekkers, Eddy; Solleder, J.M.; Tresa, Enxhi |
| Abstract: | Trade liberalization in environmental goods is expected to mitigate climate change by limiting greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, quantitative modelling is used to generate projections on the trade, GDP, and emission effects of a potential trade liberalization agreement in energy related environmental goods. Two channels reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are considered: an increase in energy efficiency through the reduction in import prices of energy related environmental goods (EREGs) and a reduction in the costs of intermediate and capital goods used in electricity production from renewable energy sources. We evaluate four scenarios based on combinations of reductions in tariffs and NTMs of EREGs, and environmentally preferable products (EPPs). Simulations with the WTO Global Trade Model project: (i) an increase in exports of EREGs and EPPs both at the global level and in most regions; (ii) a modest increase in GDP in all regions because of falling tariffs, NTMs, and increased energy efficiency; (iii) a modest reduction in global emissions of about 0.3%. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333427&r=ene |
| By: | Claire Alestra; Gilbert Cette; Valérie Chouard; Rémy Lecat |
| Abstract: | This paper highlights how technology can contribute to reaching the COP21 goals of net zero CO2 emissions and global warming below 2°C at the end of the century. It uses the ACCL model, particularly adapted to quantify the consequences of energy price shocks and technology improvements on CO2 emissions, temperature changes, climate damage and GDP. Our simulations show that without climate policies, i.e. a ‘business as usual’ scenario, the warming may be +4 to +5°C in 2100, with considerable climate damage. We also find that an acceleration in ‘usual technical progress’ - not targeted at reducing greenhouse gas intensity - makes global warming and climate damage worse than the ‘business as usual’ scenario. According to our estimates, the world does not achieve climate goals in 2100 without technological changes to avoid CO2 emissions. To hit such climatic targets, intervening only through the relative price of different energy types, e.g. via a carbon tax, requires challenging hypotheses of international coordination and price increase for polluting energies. We assess a multi-lever climate strategy, associating diverse price and technology measures. This mix combines energy efficiency gains, carbon sequestration, and a decrease of 3% per year in the relative price of non-carbon-emitting electricity with a 1 to 1.5% annual rise in the relative price of our four polluting energy sources (corresponding to a relatively low but achievable carbon tax scenario). None of these components alone is sufficient to reach climate objectives. Our last and most important finding is that our composite scenario achieves the climate goals. |
| Keywords: | : Climate, Global Warming, Technology, Environmental Policy, Growth, Long-Term Projections, Uncertainties, Renewable Energy |
| JEL: | H23 Q54 E23 E37 O11 O47 O57 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:909&r=ene |
| By: | Tyagi, Akanksha; Warrior, Dhruv; Ganesan, Karthik; Jain, Rishabh; Chandhok, Vibhuti; Dasgupta, Amrita; Dsouza, Swati; Kim, Tae-Yoon; Ramji, Aditya; Krishnan, Deepak; Gupta, Geetika; Tagotra, Niharika; Kumar, Parveen; Mandal, Tirthankar |
| Abstract: | The global move towards achieving net zero emissions will increase demand for low-carbon and clean technologies such as wind turbines, solar photovoltaics, electric vehicles and energy storage. However, the production of these technologies depends heavily on a few geographically concentrated minerals with limited availability. This report highlights the vulnerabilities in the supply chain of seven minerals: lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, manganese, graphite and rare earths. It examines mineral criticality assessment frameworks and the global concentration of reserves and mineral processing facilities. The report also explores technologies that could reduce global dependence on these critical minerals. Further, it recommends specific actions to improve supply and reduce demand, tracking the critical mineral value chain and co-development of technologies to explore, mine and process minerals. It also talks about the need to develop mineral stockpiles. The report also emphasises circularity and scaling up alternative technologies to reduce mineral demand. The report has been commissioned by the Ministry of Mines, Government of India to inform the G20 Energy Transition Working Group (ETWG) negotiations. Key Findings -Most critical minerals are geographically concentrated in their resources, reserves and production -Just 15 countries possess between 55 to 90 per cent of global reserves of critical minerals for low-carbon technologies. The same 15 countries also produced 70 to 95 per cent of these minerals in 2022. -Mine production is already more than 2 per cent of global reserves for manganese, copper, nickel and cobalt. -Mine production of lithium and rare earths has more than doubled between 2016 and 2022. -The analysis shows that the focus on clean technologies (solar, wind, batteries for electric vehicles and grid storage, and grid infrastructure) will account for majority of the lithium demand (80–91 per cent) by 2050. Nickel demand from clean technologies is estimated to be between 34-55 per cent of the total demand by 2050, while copper demand is estimated to range between 29 and 43 per cent by 2050. Cobalt demand from the clean energy sector is expected to cross 55 per cent of the total demand in 2050. -Co-developing the mineral exploration, mining, and processing technologies will ensure the production of minerals scales globally. -The demand for new minerals can reduce significantly by scaling up the circular economy |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2023–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8m46128h&r=ene |
| By: | Shakib, Mohammed; Yumei, Hou; Rauf, Abdul; Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Murshed, Muntasir; Mahmood, Haider |
| Abstract: | The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious development project initiated by the Chinese government to foster economic progress worldwide. This study aims to investigate the dynamics of energy, economy, and environment among 42 BRI developing countries using an annual frequency panel dataset from 1995 to 2019. The major findings from the econometric analysis revealed that higher degrees of energy consumption, economic growth, population growth rate, and FDI inflows exhibit adverse environmental consequences by boosting the CO2 emission figures of the selected developing BRI nations. However, it is interesting to observe that exploiting renewable energy sources, which are relatively cleaner compared to the traditionally-consumed fossil fuels, and fostering agricultural sector development can significantly improve environmental well-being by curbing the emission levels. On the other hand, financial development is found to be ineffective in explaining the variations in CO2 emission figures of the selected BRI member countries. Besides, the causality analysis shows that higher energy consumption, FDI inflows, and agricultural development cause environmental pollution by boosting carbon dioxide emissions. However, economic growth, technology development, financial progress, and renewable energy consumption are evidenced to exhibit bidirectional causal associations with carbon dioxide emissions. In line with these findings, several relevant policies can be recommended. |
| Date: | 2022–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ktj5n&r=ene |
| By: | Jakub Sokolowski; Jan Frankowski; Joanna Mazurkiewicz |
| Abstract: | The geopolitical situation and the EU's ambitious climate policy are driving energy prices up. And when these rise, they inflate the risk of poverty and inequality – especially among poorer households. These risks should be mitigated and energy-poor households compensated for the increase in energy prices. The Anti-inflation Shield proposed by the Polish government in November 2021 will not do this; it is merely a temporary cut in energy prices that will potentially benefit high-income households the most. Energy vouchers are an alternative that would effectively work to reduce poverty, inequality and contribute to achieving climate policy goals. These vouchers should: (1) go to energy-poor households, (2) cover their average energy expenditure, (3) encourage households to enroll in energy transition support programmes. And while this solution is expensive, its benefits far outweigh its costs. Poor households must be compensated for rising energy costs to foster greater public acceptance of a cleaner and greener energy transformation. |
| Keywords: | energy and climate, |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:ppaper:pp052021&r=ene |
| By: | Calzadilla, Alvaro; Winning, Matthew; Domenech, Teresa |
| Abstract: | A pathway towards 1.5°C requires substantial economic, societal and technological transformations (IPCC 2018). All sectors require deep and immediate emissions reductions. Heavy industry (steel, cement and chemicals) and heavy-duty transport (trucking, shipping and aviation) are responsible for around one-third of global CO2 emissions (ETC 2018). However, reducing emissions in these hard-to-abate sectors requires policy makers to support the development and diffusion of carbon-neutral technologies and align decarbonisation strategies to global and regional sustainable development pathways. We use an updated version of the ENGAGE-Materials model to assess different strategies and technology options in the iron and steel sector to achieve decarbonisation and a sustainable use of resources. Our results show that an enhanced circularity and the availability of new low-carbon technologies in the steel sector help reduce the costs of decarbonisation. Furthermore, the introduction of a global carbon price that limits fossil fuel use and the associated greenhouse gas emissions motivates the steel industry to move towards a more circular use of steel. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333480&r=ene |
| By: | Dudu, Hasan; Beck, Hans Anand; Hallegatte, Stephane |
| Abstract: | In this paper we are analyzing the impacts of reaching to net zero by 2053 on Turkey’s economy. We use a CGE model that is calibrated to 2018 Social Accounting Matrix of Turkey. Our scenarios incorporate the results of sectoral analysis from Turkey Country Climate and Development Reports published by the World Bank (2022). We take the results of land use change, energy, transport, and buildings sectors and translate them into shocks in the CGE model. Our results suggest that high levels of electrification of buildings and transport are likely to pose challenges for the net zero pathway of Turkey, although the energy efficiency gains thanks to the mitigation policies are likely to compensate the adverse effects of increasing electricity prices in the short to medium term. Hence Turkey needs to revise the energy sector policies to increase the production capacity of renewables further to ease the transition to a net zero economy. Mitigation policies are progressive in the sense that they do not harm poorer households as much as richer households but still the lower income groups would need to be compensated especially in the early years of the transition. Increase in government revenues thanks to a carbon tax and removing subsidies on fossil fuels would create enough fiscal space for social protection programs required for a just transition. Last, a well-managed transition to a net zero economy offers significant growth benefits for Turkey. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333456&r=ene |
| By: | Anuradha Singh; Jyoti Yadav; Sarahana Shrestha; Aparna S. Varde |
| Abstract: | This is a study on the potential widespread usage of alternative fuel vehicles, linking them with the socio-economic status of the respective consumers as well as the impact on the resulting air quality index. Research in this area aims to leverage machine learning techniques in order to promote appropriate policies for the proliferation of alternative fuel vehicles such as electric vehicles with due justice to different population groups. Pearson correlation coefficient is deployed in the modeling the relationships between socio-economic data, air quality index and data on alternative fuel vehicles. Linear regression is used to conduct predictive modeling on air quality index as per the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, based on socio-economic factors. This work exemplifies artificial intelligence for social good. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.08286&r=ene |
| By: | Perdana, Sigit; Vielle, Marc |
| Abstract: | Implementation of CBAM to support EU climate neutrality by 2050 has raised several concerns. As the mechanism aims to minimise leakage through equal fairness in global mitigation, imposing carbon tariffs on the EU's imports of energy- intensive goods could curtail the export of EU trading partners. This might be detrimental, especially to the LDCs, due to their high exposures and vulnerability risks. This paper assesses and quantifies the implication of EU-CBAM and analyses eight complementary measures to mitigate the impacts on LDCs. Scenario developments are constructed by projecting the EU's new climate targets relative to the reference scenario of the EU's current policies. A more stringent climate target results in carbon leakage, and implementing CBAM will reduce the rate by one-third by 2040. The analysis also confirms significant welfare loss for LDCs through declining exports. Exempting LDCs from EU CBAM is less justifiable, as this measure results in greater leakage than other options. A further assessment confirms that policy recommendation for CBAM complementary measures should focus on the climate transformation pathway for LDCs. EU CBAM implementation with revenue-redistribution targeted to promote clean and efficient use of energy in LDCs has improved the welfare of recipient countries, substantially reduced leakage, and proven cost-efficient for the EU. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333458&r=ene |
| By: | Marcin Borsuk (Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland; University of Cape Town, South Africa); Nicolas Eugster (University of Queensland, Australia); Paul-Olivier Klein (University of Lyon, France: Université Jean Moulin Lyon 3, iaelyon School of Management, UR Magellan. 1 av. des Frères Lumière, 69008 Lyon, France. Orcid: orcid.org/0000-0003-2403-5980); Oskar Kowalewski (Institute of Economics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Poland IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9221 - LEM - Lille Économie, F-59000 Lille, France) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between family ownership and carbon emissions using a large cross-country dataset comprising 6, 610 non-financial companies over the period 2010- 2019. We document that family firms display lower carbon emissions, both direct and indirect, when compared to non-family firms, suggesting a higher commitment to environmental protection by family owners. We show that this differential effect started following the 2015 Paris Agreement. Differences in governance structure, familial values, and higher spendings in R&D partly explain our results. Paradoxically, we find that family-owned firms and family CEOs commit less publicly to a reduction in their carbon emissions and have lower ESG scores, although polluting less. This suggests a lower participation in the public display of such an outcome and a lower tendency to greenwashing. |
| Keywords: | : carbon emission, ESG, governance, family firms, greenwashing, climate change |
| JEL: | G3 G38 M14 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:f202301&r=ene |
| By: | Bruno Jetin (Universiti Brunei Darussalam, CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - LABEX ICCA - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - Université Sorbonne Nouvelle - Paris 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UPCité - Université Paris Cité - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord) |
| Abstract: | Energy transition is now considered a necessity for moving towards sustainable development and to improve living standards. This is especially the case in Southeast Asia where energy demand is expected to increase by 50% and electricity demand to double by 2025. The region has not enough fossil fuels to cope with this growing demand and will have to increase its imports which may endanger its energy security. |
| Keywords: | Energy transition, China, Southeast Asia, Renewables, Electric car, batteries |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04036822&r=ene |
| By: | Steven Fries (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Over the next three decades, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), and especially middle-income countries, are projected to account for much of the growth in global economic activity and energy use. While a decisive move to low-carbon technologies and energy efficiency would advance both their development goals and a stable climate, the countries have yet to fully tap this opportunity. The multilateral development banks (MDBs) are in a unique position to help lower barriers to low-carbon investments in EMDEs and unlock these sustainable development opportunities. Their differentiating governance, financial and technical capabilities, and financing instruments would enable MDBs to support the necessary business environment and energy reforms and to cofinance low-carbon and energy efficiency investments alongside other investors to reduce and manage risks. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb23-2&r=ene |
| By: | Lucas Vivier (ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Retrofitting obligations are gaining traction among policy makers to overcome the sluggishness of energy efficiency improvements in residential buildings and the low effectiveness of most incentive programmes in changing this. Such an obligation was for instance the flagship proposal submitted by the Citizens' Convention for Climate to the French government. What are the costs and benefits of this little-studied measure? We examine this question using Res-IRF, a building stock model of French dwellings with endogenous retrofitting dynamics. We find that a retrofitting obligation is essential in allowing a net-zero energy target to be met in the residential sector. Crucially, the obligation makes up for the failure of most other programmes (subsidies, white certificate obligation, zero-interest loan, energy taxes) to trigger retrofits in private rental housing. As a result, the obligation is the most effective measure to eliminate the least efficient dwellings (EPC labels G and F) and its impact on energy savings and fuel poverty alleviation is twice that of all other existing measures combined. Against these benefits, we find the obligation to increase annual investment needs by 4 to 6 billion euros. |
| Keywords: | energy efficiency, Res-IRF Model, retrofitting obligation |
| Date: | 2022–06–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04012427&r=ene |
| By: | Przemyslaw Kowalski; Clarisse Legendre |
| Abstract: | The challenge of achieving net zero CO2 emissions will require a significant scaling up of production and international trade of several raw materials which are critical for transforming the global economy from one dominated by fossil fuels to one led by renewable energy technologies. This report provides a first joint assessment of data on production, international trade, and export restrictions on such critical raw materials from the OECD’s Inventory of Export Restrictions on Industrial Raw Materials covering the period 2009-2020. It presents data on production and trade concentrations, sheds early light on the impact of export restrictions, and discusses possible directions of further work in this area. The evidence presented suggests that export restrictions may be playing a non-trivial role in international markets for critical raw materials, affecting availability and prices of these materials. OECD countries have been increasingly exposed to the use of export restrictions for critical raw materials. |
| Keywords: | Export taxes, Global value chains, GVCs, International supply chains, Licensing requirements, OECD’s Inventory of Export Restrictions on Industrial Raw Materials |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F18 |
| Date: | 2023–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:269-en&r=ene |
| By: | M. Khabbazan, Mohammad |
| Abstract: | The EU has established the world's first and biggest emission-trading systems (ETS) covering aviation, emission-intensive sectors, and electricity (EITE). This paper employs a multi-regional multi-sectoral CGE model with two simultaneous international emission permit markets. After examining the abatement costs for the EU regions, various policy scenarios are implemented to study the welfare effects of forming an ETS covering NEIT sectors and its linking with the EITE sectors under two different baselines and four emission reduction targets. The results provide several important insights: i) Marginal abatement costs in Germany and the Eastern European Union region (EEU) are significantly lower than in the rest of the EU regions. ii) The carbon price in the emission permit market covering NEIT is significantly higher than the carbon price in the emission permit market covering EITE. iii) Germany and EEU appear as notable suppliers of emission permits in both markets. iv) There is a significant aggregate welfare gain under the scenario in which the ETS covering NEIT co-exists parallel with the ETS covering EITE. v) The aggregate welfare in the EU under the full integration of EITE and NEIT may fall below its value under the scenario with two parallel emission permit markets. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333489&r=ene |
| By: | Katarzyna Maciejowska; Tomasz Serafin; Bartosz Uniejewski |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a novel approach for constructing probabilistic forecasts, which combines both the Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) method and the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) averaging scheme. The performance of the approach is evaluated on datasets from two European energy markets - the German EPEX SPOT and the Polish Power Exchange (TGE). The results indicate that newly proposed solutions yield results, which are more accurate than the literature benchmarks. Additionally, empirical evidence indicates that the proposed method outperforms its competitors in terms of the empirical coverage and the Christoffersen test. In addition, the economic value of the probabilistic forecast is evaluated on the basis of financial metrics. We test the performance of forecasting models taking into account a day-ahead market trading strategy that utilizes probabilistic price predictions and an energy storage system. The results indicate that profits of up to 10 EUR per 1 MWh transaction can be obtained when predictions are generated using the novel approach. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.08565&r=ene |
| By: | Franz Hamann; Juan Camilo Mendez-Vizcaino; Enrique G. Mendoza; Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria |
| Abstract: | Emerging economies that are large oil producers have sizable external debt, their country risk rises when oil prices fall, and several of them have defaulted at least once since 1979. Moreover, while oil and non-oil output reduce country risk on impact and in the long-run, oil reserves reduce it marginally on impact but increase it in the long-run. We propose a model of sovereign default and oil extraction consistent with these observations. The sovereign manages oil reserves strategically to make default less painful by altering the value of autarky, and hence its sustainable debt falls. All else equal, default is less likely in states in which reserves or oil prices are higher, or non-oil GDP is lower, but the equilibrium dynamics of reserves and country risk in response to oil-price shocks switch from negatively correlated on impact to positively correlated for several years. |
| JEL: | F34 F41 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31058&r=ene |
| By: | Tomás Baioni |
| JEL: | Q56 Q51 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4432&r=ene |
| By: | Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Although China has become a major trading partner of the EU, the EU-China relationship has deteriorated over the last decade. This has been demonstrated, for example, by disputes over trade issues, unequal treatment of EU investors by Beijing, frictions over the transfer of intellectual property, and human rights violations. The EU’s critical dependency on supplies from China, which became evident during the COVID-19 pandemic, further complicates the relationship. The issue of the green transition has a central importance in the context of intensified geo-economic competition and possible decoupling from China, as here the EU has critical dependencies on the country, which is responsible for about 60% of global extraction of rare earth elements, about 60-65% of global processing of lithium and cobalt, and nearly 90% of global processing of rare earth elements. So far, EU policy with respect to China has lacked co-ordination and solidarity, with the splits running across countries, institutions and economic sectors. This makes it challenging for the EU to develop a unified strategy toward Beijing. This paper examines the issues and sets out our suggestions for the policies the EU and Austria can undertake to decrease the bloc’s dependency on China in supplies of critical inputs for its green transition and to minimise the vulnerabilities of their economies. |
| Keywords: | China, European Union, Geopolitics, Geo-economic policy, Renewable energy, Energy security, Energy transition, Critical materials, Rare earth elements |
| JEL: | F02 F50 F52 F64 Q28 Q48 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:67&r=ene |
| By: | Lencz, Dominic (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | Variable renewable electricity (VRE), generated for instance by wind or solar power plants, is characterised by negligible variable costs and an availability that varies over time and space. Locating VRE capacity at sites with the highest average availability maximises the potential output. However, potential output must be curtailed, if system constraints prevent a local use or export. Such system constraints arise from the features defining the system, which I denote as system topology. Therefore, site choices that are unfavourable from a potential output perspective may still be optimal from a total system cost perspective. Previous research has shown that first-best investments require nodal prices that take account of the system constraints. Market designs that do not reflect nodal prices, such as uniform pricing, typically fail to achieve optimal site choices. However, a profound theoretical understanding of the economic trade-offs involved in the optimal spatial allocation of VRE is lacking. My paper contributes to filling this research gap. To do so, I develop a highly stylised model in which producers, taking into account the system topology, allocate VRE capacity in a one-shot game. Using the model, I analytically show that the optimal spatial allocation can be grouped into three spatial allocation ranges. Which of these ranges applies, I find to be highly dependent on the system topology parameters. In the first range, valid for relatively low VRE penetration levels, it is optimal to allocate all capacity to the node with the higher average availability. In the second and third range, it is optimal to allocate marginal capacity either fully or partially to the node with the lower average availability, i.e., the less favourable site from a potential output perspective. For uniform pricing, I show that producers allocate capacity inefficiently when VRE penetration exceeds a certain threshold.The resulting welfare losses I find to be especially high when transmission capacity is low, the difference in average VRE availability is large, and demand is concentrated at the node with the lower availability. |
| Keywords: | Variable renewable electricity; spatial allocation; nodal pricing; uniform pricing; theoretical analysis |
| JEL: | D47 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2023–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2023_002&r=ene |
| By: | Johnson, David; Geldner, Nathan; Liu, Jing; Baldos, Uris Lantz; Hertel, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Biobased energy, particularly corn starch-based ethanol and other liquid renewable fuels, are a major element of federal and state energy policies in the United States. These policies are motivated by energy security and climate change mitigation objectives, but corn ethanol does not substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions when compared to petroleum-based fuels. Corn production also imposes substantial negative externalities (e.g., nitrogen leaching, higher food prices, water scarcity, and indirect land use change). In this paper, we utilize a partial equilibrium model of corn-soy production and trade to analyze the potential of reduced US demand for corn as a biobased energy feedstock to mitigate increases in nitrogen leaching, crop production and land use associated with growing global populations and income from 2020 to 2050. We estimate that a 23% demand reduction would sustain land use and nitrogen leaching below 2020 levels through the year 2025, and a 41% reduction would do so through 2030. Outcomes are similar across major watersheds where corn and soy are intensively farmed. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333475&r=ene |
| By: | Matteo Ciccarelli (European Central Bank); Fulvia Marotta (Queen Mary University of London) |
| Abstract: | Using a panel of 24 OECD countries for the sample 1990-2019 and a standard macroeconomic framework, the paper tests the combined macroeconomic effects of climate change, environmental policies and technology. Overall, we find evidence of significant macroeconomic effects over the business cycle: physical risks act as negative demand shocks while transition risks as downward supply movements. The disruptive effects on the economy are exacerbated for countries without carbon tax or with a high exposure to natural disasters. In general, results support the need for a uniform policy mix to counteract climate change with a balance between demand-pull and technology-push policies. |
| Keywords: | Environmental policy, Environment-related technologies, Physical risks, Business cycle, SVAR |
| JEL: | C11 C33 E32 E58 Q5 |
| Date: | 2021–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:933&r=ene |
| By: | Thube, Sneha; Peterson, Sonja |
| Abstract: | Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are widely used to conduct ex-ante policy impact evaluations. However, in addition to policy design and policy stringency, structural features of the CGE models also affect the resulting estimates of policy costs. We use harmonized policy analysis results from 15 CGE models and meta-regression analysis to identify the structural variables that are significant determinants of the global and regional marginal abatement costs (MAC) for fulfilling the initial Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). Our results show that models with dynamic characteristics, higher regional disaggregation and with a representation of different electricity technologies estimate higher MACs. On the contrary, modelling endogenous technological change lowers the MAC estimates. Additionally, as to policy design, a statistically significant reduction in global MAC is observed with a fully linked global carbon market (45% reduction) and a climate-club of China, Japan and South Korea (4% reduction). This meta-analysis provides robust quantitative insights can help to provide a more useful and understood tool to inform policy relative to the results from a single model. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333459&r=ene |
| By: | O'Reilly, Rohan; Humphreys, Lee; Prendiville, Siobhan |
| Abstract: | The production structure of GTAP-E includes an energy and capital composite alongside other factors of production. Both the elasticity of substitution between capital and energy and the elasticities of substitution between different fuel sources are therefore highly important to the output of the model. However, they are by default set to the same value across all sectors and countries. This paper uses OECD panel data from 2005-2016 to estimate elasticities for capital-energy substitution and substitution between the fuel commodities included in the GTAP-E 7 database. Estimates are produced over 32 countries, and for capital-energy substitution over 16 sectors. These estimated parameters are then used in an FTA model, and the results are compared with both the default GTAP-E parameters and less specific estimated values from existing literature. This allows us to determine the magnitude of impact on model output from using statistically estimated parameters, and from using parameters disaggregated by country and sector. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333429&r=ene |
| By: | Martijn Boermans |
| Abstract: | In recent years, the green bond market has seen significant growth as a means of financing environmentally-friendly projects. However, while much research has focused on pricing, little attention has been given to the investors who hold these bonds. This paper uses a preferred habitat framework to analyze the preferences of European investors for green bonds. By analyzing a confidential dataset of portfolio holdings from 2016-Q4 to 2022-Q4, the study finds that European investors, particularly mutual funds and pension funds, show a high demand for green bonds. In contrast, insurance corporations and households tend to avoid green bonds. The research also suggests that the demand for green bonds among mutual funds and pension funds is price inelastic, while banks and insurance corporations display an elastic demand. The findings highlight the presence of a preferred habitat for green bonds among European mutual funds and pension funds. These findings are robust for potential endogeneity concerns when we apply matching techniques, are stronger for domestic green bonds, and also apply to sustainability-linked bonds. |
| Keywords: | green bonds; preferred habitat; institutional investors; securities holdings statistics; greenium; climate change; environmental impact; sustainability-linked bonds; portfolio holdings |
| JEL: | G11 G15 G23 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:773&r=ene |
| By: | De Bruin, Kelly; Yakut, Aykut Mert |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp740&r=ene |
| By: | Sahin, Sebnem |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to estimate how the role of the private sector in the Western Balkans aligns with the European Green Deal. For this purpose, we developed an economy-wide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on the net economic and environmental benefits obtained from climate finance projects in North Macedonia. We focus on two types of investments: those that target green/digital startups and innovative SMEs (MSME Fund), and others that support large enterprises and infrastructure PPP SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicle) in European Green Deal (EGD) sectors (GSIF). Our analysis focuses on the time frame 2023-2050; the rate of return of those two investments at the end of 5 cycles of investment is around 1.15 to 1.16 for the MSME and GSIF. Both Funds contribute towards decoupling in the approach to 2050. GDP increases by around 1.22 and 2.67 percentage points above the baseline in 2050 while CO2 emissions decrease by about 5.28 and 6.6 (under MSME and GSIF respectively). Overall effects on GDP components (consumption, exports, imports) are positive and higher for GSIF which is a larger fund than MSME. The model estimates a cross-economic increase by 0.69% (or 9, 468 jobs) for the MSME Fund and a 1.36% increase (or 18, 648 jobs) for the GSIF when above the baseline in 2050. This estimate includes a 0.38% increase in employment in the “sectors within the MSME portfolio”, hence an additional 867 jobs above the baseline in 2050. Regarding the “sectors within the GSIF portfolio”, the model estimates a 1.35% increase in employment, equivalent of 17, 867 new jobs in 2050 compared to the baseline. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333471&r=ene |
| By: | Farag, Markos (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)); Jeddi, Samir (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)); Kopp, Jan Hendrik (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the integration of the American, European, and Asian natural gas markets over the period 2016-2022, with a focus on how the demand shock caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the supply shock caused by geopolitical tensions in the European market affected this integration.We also examine which regional market is leading in reflecting new information and shocks into the market price. Our analysis indicates that the market integration process has been impacted by external shocks, leading to a decrease in the degree of integration between the European and Asian markets. Additionally, we find that the American market is no longer integrated with the other two markets after the supply shock, potentially due to the US's congested and fully utilized LNG infrastructure. Our analysis also shows that the gas price differentials adjust asymmetrically in response to disturbances, suggesting that markets respond differently to positive and negative shocks. Moreover, we show that the lead/lag relationship changes over time and exhibits a dynamic behavior. Finally, we discuss the fundamental changes in the global gas market that align with our empirical results. |
| Keywords: | Natural gas markets; Market integration; Threshold Co-integration; Time-varying causality |
| JEL: | C32 D40 D58 F21 F41 G13 G14 L95 Q35 Q41 |
| Date: | 2023–04–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2023_003&r=ene |
| By: | Chepeliev, Maksym; Maliszewska, Maryla; Rodarte, Israel Osorio; Pereira, Maria Filipa Seara; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique |
| Abstract: | Climate change and the respective policies for carbon emission reductions will test the resilience of global value chains and shape them. Shocks in production and trade can be transmitted from one country to another by global value chains, although they can also help to lessen the blow of a domestic shock. This paper explores simulations from the ENVISAGE global computable general equilibrium model to enhance understanding of the potential longer-term impacts of environmental policies. It evaluates the key factors shaping the global economy with stylized scenarios that capture the essential elements of policies to achieve carbon emission reductions that will have an impact on trade. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333405&r=ene |
| By: | Hillberry, Russell; Nguyen, Nhu |
| Abstract: | The rapid growth of utility-scale wind energy generation is a potentially important boon to rural economies in the United States. Yet econometric estimates suggest that the local economic benefits of wind energy generation have been modest, perhaps because the sector is capital-intensive and financed almost exclusively by external capital. In this paper we argue that a) both the presence of a critical - but unpaid - factor of production (the wind) and generous federal subsidies are quantitatively important sources of economic rent, and b) a large portion of these rents accrue to providers of capital who reside outside the local economy. We build a partial equilibrium model that illustrates the mechanisms that generate economic rent, and integrate it into a small open economy general equilibrium model of a county’s economy. We calibrate the partial and general equilibrium models to data from two rural counties in Indiana, quantify the economic rents, and consider the consequences of a resource rent tax. Resource rent taxes generate significantly larger economic benefits for communities that host wind power, and offer an opportunity to spread the sector’s economic benefits more broadly within them. Broadly distributed revenues from resource rent taxes might facilitate greater acceptance of utility scale wind power in communities where the sector would otherwise be unwelcome. State public utility commissions provide an analytical infrastructure that could support local taxation of the kind that we consider. |
| Keywords: | Land Economics/Use, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333477&r=ene |
| By: | Taheripour, Farzad; Hoyoung, Kwon; Mueller, Steffen; Emery, Isaac; Karami, Omid; Sajedinia, Ehsanreza |
| Abstract: | No major effort has been made to assess uncertainties in land use emissions values of biofuels due to changes in emissions factors. This paper aims to fill this knowledge gap with two different but related research activities. The first research activity studies the available sources of information on vegetation and soil carbon data sets that have been used in developing land use emissions factors to understand their similarities and differences across various land types and ecological conditions. The second research activity mixes the estimated land use changes obtained from an advanced version of the GTAP-BIO model for a wide range of biofuel pathways with various sets of emissions factors obtained from different vegetation and soil carbon data sources (examined in the first research activity) to examine the sensitivity of the ILUC emissions values for the examined pathways with respect to the changes in emissions factors. These research activities make significant contributions to the existing debates on uncertainties in ILUC emissions values. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333402&r=ene |
| By: | Ross Mckitrick (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Guelph, Guelph ON Canada) |
| Abstract: | Like many jurisdictions, Canada has set a target of 2035 to eliminate sales of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) in favour of electric vehicles (EVs), for the purpose of reducing greenhouse gases. Past literature has focused on the engineering and economic aspects of integrating EVs into the passenger transportation system. Herein I examine the implications for the ICEV market of a phased-in EV mandate. I show using partial equilibrium analysis that, during the interval when both types of cars are available, auto companies will overproduce EVs and earn scarcity rents on ICEVs that partially offset the revenue loss from the mandate. I then present a numerical general equilibrium model of the Canadian economy to assess the macroeconomic consequences of banning ICEVs. The results depend critically on the pace at which EVs achieve cost parity with ICEVs on a quality-adjusted basis. An EV mandate will have temporary but manageable economic consequences if technology improves so rapidly that the mandate is effectively unnecessary. But if the mandate outpaces achievement of cost parity the economic consequences will be quite severe and make it unlikely the policy could be maintained. For example it would likely cause the auto manufacturing sector to shut down. The analysis also provides insight into why automakers have been so willing up to now to develop EV product lines even though they have long lost money on them and expect to continue doing so. |
| Keywords: | Electric vehicles, climate policy, computable general equilibrium model. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gue:guelph:2023-01&r=ene |
| By: | Matthew Ackman; Timothy Grieder; Callie Symmers; Geneviève Vallée |
| Abstract: | We analyze the financial statements and stock prices of publicly traded firms incorporated in Canada that report greenhouse gas emissions. We find that these firms primarily use equity financing. We also find that equity investors increasingly account for firms’ emissions when making investment decisions but the impact appears small. This suggests that assets exposed to climate change remain at risk of a sudden repricing. |
| Keywords: | Asset pricing; Climate change; Financial stability; Firm dynamics |
| JEL: | G G1 G3 Q Q5 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsan:23-4&r=ene |
| By: | Sascha A. Keweloh |
| Abstract: | This study proposes an estimator that combines statistical identification with economically motivated restrictions on the interactions. The estimator is identified by (mean) independent non-Gaussian shocks and allows for incorporation of uncertain prior economic knowledge through an adaptive ridge penalty. The estimator shrinks towards economically motivated restrictions when the data is consistent with them and stops shrinkage when the data provides evidence against the restriction. The estimator is applied to analyze the interaction between the stock and oil market. The results suggest that what is usually identified as oil-specific demand shocks can actually be attributed to information shocks extracted from the stock market, which explain about 30-40% of the oil price variation. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.13281&r=ene |
| By: | Ricardo Dahis; Ivan de las Heras; Santiago Saavedra |
| Abstract: | Policies often have costs today but benefits far into the future, especially climate change and environmental policies. A critical dimension in this trade-off is politicians’ age, which impacts their life expectancy, career concerns, and what education they receive. We study this trade-off in the case of Brazilian mayors and environmental outcomes, using close elections. We find that when a young politician is elected, there is a reduction in deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions without significant effects on municipal GDP. Our study of mechanisms suggests young mayors matter because they belong to a new cohort, not because of age per se. |
| Keywords: | Deforestation, Age |
| JEL: | P18 Q23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2023–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:020694&r=ene |
| By: | Giulia Livieri; Davide Radi; Elia Smaniotto |
| Abstract: | Transition risk can be defined as the business-risk related to the enactment of green policies, aimed at driving the society towards a sustainable and low-carbon economy. In particular, the value of certain firms' assets can be lower because they need to transition to a less carbon-intensive business model. In this paper we derive formulas for the pricing of defaultable coupon bonds and Credit Default Swaps to empirically demonstrate that a jump-diffusion credit risk model in which the downward jumps in the firm value are due to tighter green laws can capture, at least partially, the transition risk. The empirical investigation consists in the model calibration on the CDS term-structure, performing a quantile regression to assess the relationship between implied prices and a proxy of the transition risk. Additionally, we show that a model without jumps lacks this property, confirming the jump-like nature of the transition risk. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.12483&r=ene |
| By: | Kemper, Annika (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University); Schmeck, Maren Diane (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we provide empirical evidence on the market price of risk for delivery periods (MPDP) of electricity swap contracts. As introduced by Kemper et al. (2022), the MPDP arises through the use of geometric averaging while pricing electricity swaps in a geometric framework. In preparation for empirical investigations, we adjust the work by Kemper et al. (2022) in two directions: First, we examine a Merton type model taking jumps into account. Second, we transfer the model to the physical measure by implementing mean-reverting behavior. We compare swap prices resulting from the classical arithmetic (approximated) average to the geometric weighted average. Under the physical measure, we discover a decomposition of the swap’s market price of risk into the classical one and the MPDP. In our empirical study, we analyze two types of models, characterized either by seasonality in the delivery period or by a term-structure effect, and identify the resulting MPDP in both cases. |
| Keywords: | Electricity Swaps, Delivery Period, MPDP for Diffusion and Jump Risk, Mean-Reversion, Jumps, Samuelson Effect, Seasonality |
| Date: | 2023–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bie:wpaper:676&r=ene |
| By: | Claire Duchene; Ilan Tojerow; Benoît Bayenet |
| Date: | 2023–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/357234&r=ene |
| By: | Philippe Le Houérou (AFD - Agence française de développement, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, IFC - Société financière internationale (IFC)) |
| Abstract: | Over the last 30 years, at least 94 green-climate funds1 have been created to finance climaterelated projects and programs in Emerging Markets and Developing Countries (EMDC). Each individual fund may have been justified at the time of its creation. As a system, however, they do not add up and their contribution to the total flows of green finance remains marginal. In this paper, we counted 81 active funds as of end 2022. Moreover, it is quite difficult, if not impossible, to assess even the most basic aspects of the financial management and impact of these funds as a "system" and a channel of climate finance. Given the urgency to scale up both mitigation and adaptation policies and projects in EMDC, and before creating new funds that would add to the current astonishing fragmentation, it is urgent to drastically reduce the huge number of existing climate funds and to reform the remaining ones with a view to increasing their transparency, efficiency, synergies, and impact. That would be a useful first step into rationalizing and redefining the current messy aid architecture, even more so since most of these funds are publicly financed. |
| Abstract: | Au cours des 30 dernières années, pas moins de 94 fonds verts pour le climat* ont été lancés afin de financer des projets et des programmes de lutte contre le changement climatique sur les marchés émergents et dans les économies en développement. Chacun de ces fonds peut avoir trouvé une justification au moment de sa création. Toutefois, considérés comme un tout, ils ne s'additionnent pas et leur contribution aux flux totaux de la finance verte reste marginale. Dans cet article, nous avons recensé 81 fonds actifs à fin 2022. Il est en outre difficile, voire impossible, d'évaluer ne serait-ce que les aspects les plus élémentaires de la gestion financière et de l'impact de ces fonds en tant que « système » et canal de financement de la lutte contre le changement climatique. Étant donné le caractère impérieux à renforcer les politiques et projets d'adaptation au changement climatique et d'atténuation de ses effets sur les marchés émergents et dans les économies en développement, et plutôt que de créer de nouveaux fonds qui viendraient s'ajouter à l'étonnante atomisation actuelle, il est urgent de réduire massivement le nombre considérable de fonds climatiques existants et de réformer les fonds qui subsisteront, de manière à renforcer leur transparence, leur efficacité, leurs effets de synergie et leur impact. Cela constituerait une première étape judicieuse dans la rationalisation et la redéfinition de l'architecture chaotique de l'aide au développement actuelle, d'autant plus que la plupart de ces fonds relèvent du financement public. |
| Date: | 2023–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04027247&r=ene |
| By: | Meligi, El; Ferreira, Valeria; Nechifor, Victor; Ferrari, Emanuele |
| Abstract: | Much debate has focused on the relationship between economic activities and the social and environmental impacts. This article introduces a new and environmentally extended Social Accounting Matrix for Cameroon. The SAM for 2016 has been built on the National Accounts data with the combination of employment data derived by various Households and Labour force surveys, and CO2 emissions accounts has been obtained from official reports and statistics. Based on SAM linear multiplier analysis, the aim of this article is to identify the key sectors for which final demand is most conducive to job creation but also to illustrate the corresponding employment intensity of emissions. In this sense, the ‘employment intensity of carbon’ is computed and used as an indicator that shows the amount of employment associated to CO2 emitted by the production of goods and services. At a later stage, presented how a target of environmental sustainability expressed as a potential CO2 emission reduction goal, as pledged in the latest Nationally Determined Contribution, can be achieved and its implications on the employment change. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333428&r=ene |
| By: | Wei, Taoyuan; Glomsrød, Solveig; Asbjørn, Aaheim; Ma, Lin |
| Abstract: | The Model for Global Responses to Anthropogenic Changes in the Environment (GRACE) was developed for economic analysis of climate change issues including mitigation, impacts, and adaptation. Since 2005, GRACE has been updated in line with the latest Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database. So far, Norway has not been a specific region in GRACE. To include Norway in a new version of GRACE, we need a GTAP database that ensures consistency with the official national accounting data of Norway. This study describes how we adjust the GTAP v. 10 data to achieve this consistency. For this purpose, we apply the official input-output (IO) table of Norway for the year 2014 and the annually updated Table 11123 of the National accounts to adjust macroeconomic data of the original GTAP database for components of GDP like production, income, and expenditure. The balance between supply and demand of products is finally taken care of by introducing an additional parameter in the adjusted GTAP data as “changes in inventory” for all regions. The official energy accounts and CO2 emissions data of Norway are used to replace the corresponding data of Norway in the GTAP database. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333436&r=ene |
| By: | Enste, Dominik; Hensen, Julia; Potthoff, Jennifer |
| Abstract: | Private Haushalte sind angesichts der drohenden Gasmangellage aufgerufen, ihren Gas- und Energiekonsum zu reduzieren. Die moralischen Appelle der Regierenden bergen die Gefahr, dass Menschen mit Reaktanz statt mit der gewünschten Verhaltensänderung reagieren. Statt zu sparen, versuchen sie den eingeschränkten Freiheitsspielraum zurückzuerlangen. Mit weniger freiheitseinschränkenden, verhaltensökonomischen Maßnahmen könnte energiesparendes Verhalten besser gefördert werden. Ein Lösungsansatz ist das Nudging. Nudges sind Anstupser, die menschliches Verhalten und individuelle Entscheidungen durch minimal-invasive, nicht-finanzielle Eingriffe in eine gewünschte Richtung lenken, ohne die Wahlfreiheit einzuschränken. Die analysierten Nudges des Feedbacks, der Selbstverpflichtung und Zielsetzung, Gamification, Sozialer Vergleich und Default-Änderungen zeigen Einsparpotenziale im Bereich des Energie- und Gasverbrauchs von 4 bis 20 Prozent - je nach Ausgestaltung der Maßnahmen. Insbesondere Gamification und soziale Vergleichsprozesse sind dabei in Kombination mit Feedback besonders effektiv. Die spielerische Komponente sorgt dafür, dass Energiesparen nicht mehr (nur) moralische Pflicht ist, sondern auch Spaß machen darf. Nebenbei kann bei einer geschickten Kombination der Maßnahmen ein 4-Personen-Haushalt beim aktuellen Preisniveau bei Strom- und Gaskosten durchschnittlich bis zu 1.000 Euro im Jahr sparen. |
| JEL: | D91 D78 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkpps:22023&r=ene |
| By: | van Beek, Andries (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Groote Schaarsberg, Mirjam; Borm, Peter (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Hamers, Herbert (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Veneman, Mattijs |
| Keywords: | industrial decarbonization; regional CO2 transport hubs; multi-actor infrastructure; cost allocation |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiucen:4f99c444-6676-4887-b7b8-5f9413b4b9a2&r=ene |
| By: | Grelle, Sonja; Hofmann, Wilhelm (Ruhr University Bochum, Germany) |
| Abstract: | The successful introduction of public policies to prompt behavior change hinges on the degree to which citizens endorse the proposed policies. While there is a large body of research on psychological determinants of policy acceptance, these determinants have not yet been synthesized into an integrative framework that proposes hypotheses about their interplay. In this article, we develop a review-based, integrative public policy acceptance framework that introduces the desire for governmental support as a motivational foundation in public policy acceptance. The framework traces the route from problem awareness to policy acceptance and, ultimately, policy compliance. We propose this relationship to be mediated by the motivation to desire governmental support. We integrate numerous key variables assumed to qualify the relationship between problem awareness and the desire for governmental support, such as control attributions, trust, and value fit, as well as the relationship between the desire for governmental support and policy acceptance, such as perceived policy effectiveness, intrusiveness, and fairness. We exemplify the use of the proposed framework applying it to climate policies. |
| Date: | 2023–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:ty2m7&r=ene |
| By: | Malliet, Paul; Reynès, Frédéric G. |
| Abstract: | The outcome of Computable General Equilibrium models applied to climate crucially rely on the estimation of elasticities of substitution. We use a generalized production function that overcomes the restriction imposed by a nesting structure of the Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function assumed in most CGE models. Constructing a panel of 44 countries and 14 periods from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) tables, we estimate the production functions for 54 sectors using a \textit{Seemingly Unrelated Regression} model. We compare these results to two standard KLEM nesting structures used in CES specification and find direct implications on the estimation results, especially for Capital-Energy substitutability. The more general form of the CES production function on which we rely, the Variable Output Elasticity-Cobb Douglas (VOE-CB) supports substitution between these two inputs. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333423&r=ene |
| By: | Reinke, Rouven; Porak, Laura |
| Abstract: | Economists have become very influential intellectuals in our contemporary society. The scientific knowledge produced by the discipline and the academic status of economists can be considered as a decisive power resource in media debates and politics. The current state of economics has been criticized in the past one and a half decades regarding the ontological and epistemic foundations of the discipline and its policy implications. However, especially since the Covid-19 pandemic, it seems as if publicly presented positions have drastically changed. Instead of advocating pure market liberalism, the state is attributed an important position and market failures are discussed intensively. Given these shifts, this paper analyzes the positions that important German economists present after the unfolding of the Covid-19 pandemic about 'the economy' and economic policy. Methodologically, the paper draws on critical discourse analysis (CDA) of recent interviews on the YouTube channel 'Jung & Naiv' with leading public economists in Germany. By doing so, this study elaborates on the different dimension of economic knowledge that is articulated by public representatives of economics. On the ontological and theoretical level, we find a rather monistic understanding of 'the economy', involving the interplay between markets and the state. Public economists repeatedly emphasize the superiority of market economies and their price mechanism. With regards to economic policy, a shift from rather free-market approaches towards moderate Keynesianism and market design liberalism becomes apparent, indicating a flexible pragmatism. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:99&r=ene |