|
on Energy Economics |
| By: | Kramer, Niklas; Lessmann, Christian |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of California’s emission trading scheme on carbon emissions and economic outcomes. We use panel data for all US states and apply the synthetic control method to construct an optimal counterfactual for CO2 emissions, GDP, employment, and industry turnover as outcome variables. We find evidence for a modest decline in emissions and a net positive aggregate economic effect. While we estimate overall emissions to fall relative to the counterfactual by 0.9% annually and by 6.3% in total between 2013 and 2019, the effect is most evident in the electricity and buildings sector, accounting for an annual abatement of 6.2% and 1.4%, respectively. Our estimates suggest that California’s carbon trading scheme has so far not caused large reductions in overall CO2 emissions and has positively affected macroeconomic outcomes in the short run. |
| Keywords: | Carbon pricing, emission trading, cap and trade, economic effects, emission reduction, synthetic control |
| JEL: | O44 Q48 Q52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:116796&r=ene |
| By: | Han , Hyoungmin (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | The importance of new and renewable en-ergy has been drawing attention since the Paris Climate Agreement was adopted in 2015. In response to the Paris Climate Agreement, the Korean government declared carbon neutrality by 2050 and announced policy plans to create a low-carbon ecosystem in 2020. However, the domestic new and re-newable energy market is limited, making it difficult to mass-produce power generation devices. In addition, the international community's transition to a low-carbon ecosys-tem is rapidly taking place. To achieve 2050 carbon neutrality, it is necessary to secure Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) through various overseas cooperation pro-jects. Thus, it is believed that energy cooperation with developing countries is needed to expand domestic markets and to achieve overseas NDC reduction targets. Considering India's recent market expansion and active policy in the area of renewable energy, India can be a good partner for Korea in the renewable sector. To have a clear understanding of India’s renewable energy market, we conduct the analysis on India’s renewable energy market and policy, which we will explore in this article. |
| Keywords: | New and Renewable Energy; India; Cooperation |
| Date: | 2023–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2023_002&r=ene |
| By: | Choi, Won Seok (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | In China, carbon emissions from the energy and heat producing sector account for 53.4% of total emissions, with industry (28.6%) and transportation (8.9%) being the main carbon emission sectors. Therefore, various green transition policies in energy, industry and transportation are being pursued in Chinese cities. In Chinese cities, the promotion of rooftop-distributed photovoltaic power generation, among renewable energy sources, is evaluated to be capable of intensive development, reducing power peak load, and inducing residents to consume green energy. Policies are being implemented in urban industries to reduce pollution and carbon emissions, increase energy use efficiency, improve resource use levels, and improve green manufacturing systems. In the transportation sector, China's policies to reduce emissions, expand the supply of new energy vehicles, and strengthen green transportation technology are representative. Consequently, this study summarizes the policy implications, areas of Korea-China cooperation, and risk factors of China's green transition promotion plan for its Chinese cities. |
| Keywords: | China; Green Transition Policies; Urban Development |
| Date: | 2023–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:2023_004&r=ene |
| By: | Lee, Sangwon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Lee, Jaeyoon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | As the severity of climate change is increasingly recognized throughout the world, the international community has announced plans to achieve carbon neutrality and has introduced policies to curb greenhouse gas emissions. The Korean government is also devising concrete measures to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, and going carbon free in industry, which produces a large portion of such emissions, is a key task. While carbon neutrality is a challenging goal given the manufacturing-centric structure of Korean industry, setting up an effective response system based on cooperation between the private and public sectors is an essential response to an irreversible tide. The climate crisis is a prime opportunity to find new drivers of growth without harming industrial competitiveness through a decarbonization strategy that includes the adoption of new eco-friendly fuels and materials, more efficient energy use, and innovative processes based on sectoral characteristics. This paper explores potential directions for decarbonization in Korea. |
| Keywords: | manufacturing; decarbonization; carbon neutrality; net zero; manufacturing policy; industrial policy; green infrastructure; regulatory reform; green transition; renewable energy; alternative energy; green technology; green innovation; Korea |
| JEL: | O13 O21 O25 O30 O33 O38 Q01 Q42 Q48 Q52 Q54 Q55 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–08–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2021_003&r=ene |
| By: | Cai, Yongxia; Woollacott, Jared; Beach, Robert; Rafelski, Lauren; Ramig, Christopher; Shelby, Michael |
| Abstract: | The transportation sector is expected to undergo major structural changes in the coming decades, particularly with the emergence of new vehicle technologies. There is a need to understand the economy-wide impacts of evolving conditions in the transportation sector and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models can provide valuable insights in this area. However, to date, few CGE models have established detailed representations of the transportation sector. The major contribution of this work is to demonstrate, and provide insight into, how transportation subsector and technological detail influences modelled economic and environmental outcomes in the ADAGE model. The results presented in this paper indicate projected outcomes based on cost assumptions and model structure, not specific forecasts of future outcomes. They provide a useful diagnostic tool for gaining insight on likely directions and relative magnitude of market and environmental outcomes under different technology and cost assumptions. EV technologies, both hybrid and battery, see significant penetration in the U.S vehicle fleet from 2020 to 2050 whereas natural gas and fuel cell electric vehicles do not. Since the ADAGE model represents the whole economy, and both the transportation and electricity sector are integrated and linked together in ADAGE, the model is well-suited to estimate the sectoral, as well as the overall GHG impacts, of the wider use of electric vehicles. Increased penetration of EVs results in significant reductions in U.S. transportation sector GHG emissions, increases in U.S. electricity sector GHG emissions, and reduced overall, economy-wide, U.S. GHG emissions. As expected, higher oil prices lead to more rapid penetration of AFVs, and lower oil prices lead to slower penetration of AFVs. |
| Keywords: | Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, None/Blank |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333451&r=ene |
| By: | Hu, Xiurong; Liu, Junfeng |
| Abstract: | China’s environmental protection tax (EPT) has been implemented since the beginning of 2018 to conquer the severe air pollution problems. Meanwhile, carbon tax (CAT) has been approved as the most effective way on climate mitigation. However, the combined effects across different environmental taxes on emission reduction have not been comprehensively characterized. Besides environmental taxes, changes in trade policy between countries may also influence pollution emissions, which also needs a deeper investigation. In order to provide insights for decision-making on air pollution mitigation under an uncertain worldwide trade policy, we simulated the effects of the combinations of EPT and CAP changes on air pollutants emissions and economic activities. Utilizing a multiple-province computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we quantify the emissions changes resulting from the individual or mixed policy components: including variating EPT from 2yuan per kilogram emissions to12yuan/kg, CAT from 50yuan per tonne CO2 emissions to 300yuan/tonne. Our results show that although CAP policy may result in greater emission reductions than that of the EPT, the EPT policy is more cost-effective to the CAP policy. Besides, CAP is most redundant to the EPT, while the EPT is complementary to a CAP policy. On province level, in most provinces, carbon pricing could increase the air pollution mitigation but also strengthen the burden of GDP at the same time, while Heilongjiang, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Hainan, Guangxi and Jiangxi provinces could result in air pollution reduction and GDP increase. Provincial distribution is vital for regional equality. We suggest to introduce relative smaller tax rate on provinces who suffer large GDP loss, or provide subsidies to these provinces. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333460&r=ene |
| By: | Devarajan, Shanta; Go, Delfin S.; Robinson, Sherman; Thierfelder, Karen |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we explore the dual goals of CBAM – to level the playing field for the EU and to encourage decarbonization in countries with high CO2 emissions. To do so, we consider the effects of carbon taxes and carbon tariffs. Carbon tariffs are differentiated by exporting country and are based on carbon emitted per unit of output. We consider the following scenarios: all regions introduce a carbon tax of $75 per ton – this is the first best outcome when the policy objective is to reduce global carbon emissions. Countries also increase tax revenue collected so experience a “double dividend” and may choose to reduce other taxes. Next, we consider a carbon tax in developed countries and a carbon tariff against imports of commodities with high CO2 per unit of output – fertilizer, iron & steel, aluminum, cement, and electricity – from all countries without a carbon tax. Finally, we consider a carbon tax with different tax rates by country income levels, as suggested in a recent IMF report on carbon pricing. For the analysis, we use a comparative static multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Data are from GTAP v10, 2014, aggregated to focus on major polluting regions such as India, China, and SACU, and sectors subject to a CBAM tariff: iron & steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, and electricity. We use GTAP’s satellite energy accounts data which record the CO2 emissions associated with each energy commodity and using agent. Production behavior includes incentives to substitute away from energy inputs as prices change. Preliminary results suggest carbon taxes are effective at reducing CO2 emissions and generating tax revenue. CBAM provides some assistance in reducing leakage in countries with a carbon tax. However, countries punished by CBAM tariffs can divert exports to other regions which do not impose CBAM tariffs, so the impact of CBAM on decarbonizing is limited. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333494&r=ene |
| By: | Kassoum Ayouba (Université Clermont Auvergne, AgroParisTech, INRAE, VetAgro Sup, UMR Territoires, F-63170, Aubière, France, 9 avenue Blaise Pascal, CS 20085. 63178 Aubière - France); Jean-Philippe Boussemart (Univ. Lille, CNRS, IESEG School of Management, UMR 9221 –LEM, F-59000, France. 3, rue de la Digue, 59000 Lille, France); Raluca Parvulescu (IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9221 –LEM, F-59000, France. 3, rue de la Digue, 59000 Lille, France) |
| Abstract: | Departing from traditional approaches based on treating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions as a bad output, thus relying on the weak disposability assumption, CO2 emissions are considered in this paper as a cost to minimize. We extend the Coelli et al. (2007) pollution cost approach preserving the materials balance condition by considering that peers are evaluated, besides their energy use, on their carbon intensity per total energy consumption. The proposed methodology is applied to estimate the extent to which a selection of 33 OECD and BRICS countries can reduce their CO2 emissions given their Gross Domestic Product and population over the period 2001-2019. Our results indicate that the period mean reduction potential for CO2 emissions of 53% (i.e., an efficiency level of 47%) can be decomposed into a 36% reduction in the energy intensity and a 27% decrease in the carbon intensity of energy (i.e., efficiency of 64% and respectively, 73%). |
| Keywords: | Carbon dioxide emissions, Emission-generating technologies, Pollution cost, Energy use, Activity model, Data envelopment analysis (DEA) |
| JEL: | Q52 Q40 D24 C61 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ies:wpaper:e202304&r=ene |
| By: | Argueyrolles, Robin; Delzeit, Ruth |
| Abstract: | Albeit not without some controversy, mandates like the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) aim to increase biofuel consumption to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the transport fuel sector (Britz & Hertel, 2011). At the same time, Fossil Fuel Subsidy Reforms (FFSR) to support governments’ climate objectives are gaining traction in the political sphere, such as in the European Union, where it is explicitly mentioned in the ‘Green Deal’. These two fuel types are known to interact though price mechanisms (Delzeit et al. 2021c; Winchester & Ledvina, 2017), but the impact of fossil fuels and biofuels policies on one another remains to be investigated. Using the DART-BIO model, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, we study how phasing out fossil fuel consumption subsidies and biofuel mandates would impact one another. We find that where both policies are implemented they can have a positive additive effect. For example, a FFSR can support the achievement of biofuel consumption targets at lower costs when it is implemented in the same region. If the FFSR occurs abroad however, it can have a detrimental impact on the biofuel target through a leakage effect. We estimate that the EU would need to spend USD 2 billion more on biofuel subsidies to meet the maximum allowable biofuel target of RED, given that the rest of the world phases-out subsidies but the EU does not. Through their impact on the global market, biofuel subsidies can also lead to leakages. A region that implements neither policy would experience an increase in its consumption of fossil fuels and decrease in its consumption of biofuels as a result of each policy being implemented abroad. In conclusion, while the policies can have a positive additive effect, they also lead to leakages that are detrimental to the overall goal of reducing GHG emissions that they aim to achieve. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333492&r=ene |
| By: | Chepeliev, Maksym; Maliszewska, Maryla; Rodarte, Israel Osorio; Pereira, Maria Filipa Seara; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique |
| Abstract: | The impact of a changing climate and the transition to a low carbon world will lead to differing economic outcomes between and within countries. This paper applies global economic models and disaggregated sector and country level modelling to assess the impacts on different countries and groups within countries of shifts in comparative advantage due to climate change and of policies introduced to mitigate emissions. The latter will lead to significant changes in the energy structures that could lead to dramatic changes in countries’ economies and global trade—depending on the nature of the transformation and the policies implemented to achieve GHGs emission reductions. For example, a sharp move to solar and wind, or other renewables, on the other hand, will drastically reduce the demand for fossil fuels and create a new set of winners and losers in the production and export of energy and energy related goods and services. Taxes on greenhouse gas emissions (or other policies to limit emissions) will change the relative cost of production and prices of goods and change comparative advantage for sectors across the board and induce changes in trade patterns. The research will conclude with policy recommendations aimed at facilitating the low carbon transition while minimizing the adjustment costs for workers. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333497&r=ene |
| By: | Paltsev, Sergey; Gurgel, Angelo; Morris, Jennifer; Chen, Henry; Dey, Subhrajit; Marwah, Sumita |
| Abstract: | We assess the contribution of India’s hard-to-abate sectors to the country’s current emissions and their likely future trajectory of development under different policy regimes. We employ an enhanced version of the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to explicitly represent the following hard-to-abate sectors: iron and steel, non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, etc.), non-metallic minerals (cement, plaster, lime, etc.), and chemicals. We find that, without additional policies, the Paris Agreement pledges made by India for the year 2030 still can lead to an increasing use of fossil fuels and corresponding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with projected CO2 emissions from hard-to-abate sectors growing by about 2.6 times from 2020 to 2050. Scenarios with electrification, natural gas support, or increased resource efficiency lead to a decrease in emissions from these sectors by 15-20% in 2050, but without carbon pricing (or disruptive technology changes) emissions are not reduced relative to their current levels due to growth in output. Carbon pricing that makes carbon capture and storage (CCS) economically competitive is critical for achieving substantial emission reductions in hard-to-abate sectors, enabling emission reductions of 80% by 2050 relative the scenario without additional policies. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333419&r=ene |
| By: | Rose, Steven; Morris, Jennifer; Gurgel, Angelo |
| Abstract: | Projections of future economic development, energy, emissions and climate involve a wide range of uncertainties. These projections often assume idealized policies. We employ a multi-sector coupled human-natural system model to explore both probabilistic parametric uncertainty and deep uncertainty about climate policy. Scenarios are used to capture deep uncertainties about policy design, including the level of policy stringency, the option for international emissions trading, the coverage of land use change emissions, and the availability of negative emissions technologies (e.g. bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, or BECCS). For each “optimistic” and “pessimistic” combination of policy design assumptions, we sample from probability distributions for model parameters such as total factor productivity growth, population, energy efficiency trends, costs of advanced technologies, fossil fuel resource availability, climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake and aerosol forcing. We then assess the resulting uncertainty of key outcomes of interest at global and sub-global (regional, sectoral and technology) levels. This uncertainty characterization helps to inform policy discussions and decision-making. We show the impact of policy design assumptions on uncertainty in the distribution of emissions across regions, sectors and greenhouse gases, as well as energy and technology mixes and the cost of the policy. Several insights emerge, such as how failing to cover land use emissions can result in total emissions above the intended cap; how the availability of BECCS and credits for land use emissions can allow for a prolonged use of fossil energy; and how international emissions trading can benefit some regions more than others. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333474&r=ene |
| By: | Garaffa, Rafael; Weitzel, Matthias; Vandyck, Toon; Keramidas, Kimon; Paul, Dowling; Tchung-Ming, Stéphane; Florian, Fosse; Ana, Diaz Vazquez; Jacques, Deprés; Peter, Russ; Schade, Burkhard; Schmitz, Andreas; Ramirez, Antonio Soria; Rincon, Andrea Diaz; Rey, Luis; Wojtowicz, Krzysztof |
| Abstract: | The 2015 Paris Agreement establishes a framework in which countries submit their policy targets to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and further invites parties to submit long-term low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission development strategies. In this paper, we take stock of recent updates in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) and long-term low greenhouse gas (GHG) emission development strategies (LTS) announced leading up to and during the Conference of the Parties (COP 26) in Glasgow, in November 2021. We focus on the transition of G20 countries, which accounted for nearly 75% of global GHG emissions since 1990, assessing three different scenarios: (i) current policies; (ii) announced policy targets (NDC-LTS); and (iii) a 1.5°C-compatible pathway. We further analyse decarbonisation drivers and energy system transformation metrics within each scenario, highlighting both the policy options to bring emissions in line with ambitious climate targets, and the associated labour market transition. The regional focus reveals heterogeneous decarbonisation pathways, mitigation options and emission gaps, informing the ongoing first “global stocktake” under the Paris Agreement. Delivering on both NDC and LTS targets could limit the temperature increase of global mean temperature to about 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, reducing the ambition gap in the long run. The results furthermore suggest that the scale and concentration of cross-sectoral employment transition could warrant careful attention when designing policies to close the remaining implementation gap between current policies and climate targets. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333425&r=ene |
| By: | Kitetu, Geoffrey M.; Ko, Jong-Hwan |
| Abstract: | With renewed GHG emission reduction commitments and the rejoining of the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015 by the USA, this study attempts to examine the global economic implications of carbon emission reduction targets, including the opportunity cost the USA is likely to pay to implement its nationally determined commitments (NDC). The analysis employs the GTAP-E model and the GTAP database version 10 with a base year of 2014. Counter virtual experiments include eight simulation scenarios; however, we focus on scenarios 3 and 4, which evaluate global emission reduction with trading excluding and including the USA. Simulation results suggest that worldwide carbon dioxide emission trading significantly lowers the cost of implementing carbon dioxide emission reduction relative to the global carbon dioxide emission reduction under the no use of flexibility mechanism experiment. Besides, if the USA implements its NDC as intended in scenario 4, USA’s GDP will contract by 0.14%, while its welfare will contract by $74.24 billion. However, if the USA does not implement its NDC as in scenario 3, its GDP will contract by 0.07%, while its welfare will contract by $4.46 billion. Consequently, the USA’s opportunity cost of carbon dioxide emission reduction will be in the form of a decline in domestic output of 38.07% and 5.71% in coal, and the related contraction of 6.87% and 1.61% in oil, 61.23% and 9.62% in gas, 17.41% and 1.88% in oil products, 20.39%, and 2.92% in electricity, and 10.35% and o.37% in transport services, under carbon dioxide emission reduction with no use of flexibility mechanism and emission trading experiments, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333503&r=ene |
| By: | Mahlkow, Hendrik; Wanner, Joschka |
| Abstract: | A large share of global carbon emissions arises in the production of goods that are consumed in a different country and from burning fossil fuels that have been extracted yet elsewhere. The flows of carbon embodied in trade are highly asymmetrical, decoupling territorial emissions (or what we will call production footprints) from consumption footprints and from what we call extraction or supply footprints. At the same time, trade is highly and persistently unbalanced in value terms, too, allowing this decoupling to be even more pronounced — with a priori ambiguous environmental consequences. Prominently, the two countries with the largest net ex- and imports of carbon (China and the US) have at the same time consistently been among the countries with the largest trade surplus and deficit, respectively, and many large fossil fuel exporters have been running persistent trade surpluses. We investigate the effects of global value trade imbalances on carbon emissions around the world. To this end, we build a Ricardian quantitative trade model including sectoral input-output linkages, trade imbalances, fossil fuel extraction, and carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion. For every individual country, the emission effect of re- moving its trade imbalance depends on the carbon intensities of its production and consumption patterns, as well as on its fossil resource abundance. The simultaneous removal of all global trade imbalances is found to lower world carbon emissions by 0.62 percent or 184 million tons of carbon dioxide. Out of all individual countries’ imbalances, eliminating the Qatari trade surplus and the US trade deficit would lead to the largest environmental benefits in terms of lower global emissions. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333482&r=ene |
| By: | Chepeliev, Maksym; Corong, Erwin |
| Abstract: | Recently, Shapiro (2021) identified a new fact which shows an environmental bias of trade policies. This fact reveals that in most countries both import tariffs and non-tariff barriers are much lower on dirty than on clean goods—where “dirtiness” is defined as a commodity’s emission intensity measured in terms of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion per dollar of that commodity’s value. In this paper, we revisit this fact by using a newly-developed environmentally-extended GTAP MRIO Data Base and extend an earlier analysis in several ways. Our preliminary results that rely on the emissions embodied into trade (EEBT) approach and consider import tariffs only (i.e. do not include NTBs) indicate that when looking at the global average indicators, the environmental regressivity/progressivity of trade policy substantially depends on the scope of emissions coverage. We find substantial evidence of environmental bias of trade policies when only CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion are considered. In contrast, when a broader set of GHG emissions is analyzed, an opposite relation is observed with more GHG-intensive commodities facing higher tariffs. The latter is largely driven by the fact that import tariffs are high for agricultural and food commodities (e.g. meat and rice) that are relatively clean as they combust less fossil-fuel related CO2 emissions, but are much more emission intensive, when non-CO2 GHGs are accounted for. Our preliminary results also indicate that in the case of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions, one of the major cause of pre-mature mortality worldwide, a positive relation between import tariffs and emission intensities is observed. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333478&r=ene |
| By: | O'Connell, Marguerite; Abraham, Laurent; Oleaga, Iñigo Arruga |
| Abstract: | In recent years, several proposals have emerged from the policy and academic spheres to address climate and energy-related public investment needs in the European Union (EU) with an EU-level instrument. This paper provides an analytical contribution to the discussion by examining the rationale for an EU Climate and Energy Security Fund, with a focus on its legal and institutional feasibility. |
| Keywords: | climate crisis, climate emergency, energy security, European public goods, Next Generation EU (NGEU), public investment, REPowerEU |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2023313&r=ene |
| By: | He, Jianwu; Li, Shantong |
| Abstract: | In 2021, the EU announced a detailed proposal for the "Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)". The EU is China's second largest export market, and the carbon emission intensity of China's export products is significantly higher than that of many other countries. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the impact of the carbon border adjustment mechanism on China's economy. In order to assess the macro-economic impacts of the CBAM, this study will use ENVISAGE model. In this paper the model covers 16 countries and regions, and 27 sectors. The ENVISAGE model is used to compare CBAM policy against a baseline scenario (without CBAM), and the difference represents the impact of CBAM on the global economy. As for the uncertainties, two scenarios of CBAM are designed to analyze the impacts of CBAM. The first is the partial scenario, that is, the scenario in which both the coverage of product and the embedded carbon emission are narrow. The second is the comprehensive scenario, that is, the CBAM will cover all primary products and industrial products, and the carbon emissions of products include both direct and indirect carbon emissions. This report calculated the carbon emissions of products (incl. direct and indirect carbon emission) for 15 countries and regions based on the GTAP 11 database, and then calculated the carbon tariffs in the two scenarios based on product coverage and the difference of carbon price between the EU and other countries and regions. The carbon tariffs will be feed into the ENVISAGE model to simulate the economic impacts of the CBAM scenarios. The results of the simulation show that if the carbon border adjustment mechanism is limited to five types of products such as steel, cement, fertilizer, aluminum and electricity, its impact on China will be very limited; and once the carbon border adjustment mechanism is fully implemented, it will lead to a loss of GDP by 0.64% and about 2.3 million manufacturing jobs in China in the short term. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333491&r=ene |
| By: | Dahlström, Petter (Royal Institute of Technology); Lööf, Hans (Royal Institute of Technology); Sahamkhadam, Maziar (Linnaeus University); Stephan, Andreas (Linnaeus University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the financial importance of voluntarily disclosing climate commitments and independent expert-validated action plans. We construct portfolios of 1, 518 global stocks of firms that have set science-based (SBTi) emission targets in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement. Coarsened exact matching is used to create benchmark portfolios of otherwise similar global stocks but without expert-validated emission targets. Using the five-factor Fama-French model, the results show positive and statistically significant larger risk-adjusted excess returns for the SBTi portfolios in the post-SBTi validation period. This finding is more pronounced for stocks from high CO2 emission industries as well as for stocks of firms with CO2 emissions above the industry average. Overall, the results support the view that investors should prefer a portfolio of SBTi-validated stocks also since it carries lower climate-related risks. |
| Keywords: | Risk adjusted return; carbon emission; emission disclosure; Fama French; SBTi |
| JEL: | D62 G11 G23 G30 |
| Date: | 2023–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0492&r=ene |
| By: | Baldos, Uris Lantz; Chepeliev, Maksym; Haqiqi, Iman; Hertel, Thomas; Liu, Jing; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique |
| Abstract: | Agriculture is the largest emitter of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, but it seems unlikely that these emissions will be covered by climate policies in the near future. However, even if carbon pricing were applied to CO2 emissions alone, as is the case with the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS), the agricultural sector would be impacted through the increasing costs of intermediate energy inputs, rising fertilizer prices and changing food demand in response to changing prices and incomes. Considering the tremendous heterogeneity of agricultural production systems across the continental U.S., it is also important to not only understand the potential macroeconomic and sectoral implications of the climate mitigation measures, but also the spatial distribution of the corresponding impacts. In this paper, we apply a harmonized macro-gridded modeling framework to provide an assessment of spatially distributed spillover effects of climate mitigation policies on U.S. crop sector. Our results suggest that even if mitigation measures would be implemented in a form of CO2 pricing only (i.e. non-CO2 GHGs would not be directly targeted), the crop sector would be impacted through a number of channels, with rising fertilizer prices being the key one. Overall, we find substantial environmental co-benefits achieved through this channel and resulting in a reduction of cropland use, nitrogen leaching and water withdrawals. In particular, we find that such a climate policy would yield substantial water quality co-benefits, mitigating nitrate leaching to a greater extent than current voluntary environmental policies targeting water quality directly. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333502&r=ene |
| By: | Javier Aliaga Lordemann (Investigador Senior de INESAD); Sergio Mansilla (Investigador Junior de INESAD) |
| Abstract: | “Energy poverty” is a multidimensional concept that reflects the need to achieve a variety of wellbeing outcomes, which has been scarcely studied and used in public policy agendas. Considering that the literature on energy poverty is still incipient in Bolivia, this paper’s objective is to generate evidence about energy poverty evolution in the country, approximating measures of incidence (risk) and severity for the period 2005-2019. The methodological approach follows the one proposed by Alkire & Foster (2011), with five equally weighted dimensions (energy expenditure, lighting, cooking fuel and indoor pollution, food equipment, and education and communication) and using different cut-off options, at the urban and rural levels. Also, Multidimensional Energy Poverty results are compared with a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) based weight structure as a robustness exercise. Results show that the risk of being energy poor in Bolivia has decreased, but not structurally. Also, intensity has decreased in both urban and rural areas, but rural energy poor households continue to show at least 50% of deprivation in all dimensions evaluated. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional Poverty, Energy, Development. |
| JEL: | I32 O13 Q40 |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adv:wpaper:202301&r=ene |
| By: | Lackner, Klaus; Arcusa, Stephanie; Azarabadi, Habib; Sriramprasad, Vishrudh; Page, Robert |
| Abstract: | Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) is currently standard practice in carbon accounting and certification of carbon sequestration. LCA is an essential and valuable tool for understanding the environmental footprint of technologies and products. However, well-known ambiguities, insatiable demand for detailed data, and uncertainties make it ill-suited for carbon accounting. Because of these complications, it is better to avoid LCA in accounting. This can be done given the right regulatory setting. A simple approach to balancing the anthropogenic carbon budget is to demand that an equivalent amount must be permanently removed for any carbon released. Known as the “Carbon Takeback Obligation” (CTBO), this policy regime would eliminate the need for LCA in monitoring and accounting as any CO2 emitted downstream from the extraction is already balanced. This eliminates the need for tracking carbon through the supply chains. It is sufficient to quantify the amount of carbon sequestered without subtracting upstream emissions. Our modeling further shows that at carbon neutrality, market forces alone will eliminate all sequestration approaches that release more CO2 than they store. Complications arise during the transition to a fully functioning regime, as technologies that produce more emissions than they remove could game the system. While detrimental technologies can learn and still become useful, intentional fraudulence must be stopped. Therefore, we explore four transition pathways and their economics: a simple CTBO, a CTBO plus permit scheme, a futures market, and hybrid schemes. A policy that only demands a simple CTBO for carbon and does not add any economic burden on unmitigated carbon will incentivize low-cost sequestration technologies that may indirectly release more carbon than they remove. By contrast, a pure permit-based policy will render carbon sequestration technologies that emit more CO2 than they remove economically unviable. A policy with controlled futures would allow for a far more rapid phaseout of permits than would otherwise be necessary. A hybrid system would lessen the initiation shock and bridge the transition time in which the sequestration capacity falls short of market demand. |
| Date: | 2023–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:q9pzb&r=ene |
| By: | Birur, Dileep; Lal, Pankaj; Levin, Todd; Zhou, Zhi; Wolde, Bernabas; Wieczerak, Taylor; Thimmapuram, Prakash |
| Abstract: | The state of New Jersey (NJ) re-joined Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in January 2020, the first mandatory market-based program in the US to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For RGGI’s continued success, it must address the issue of leakage, a situation that results when an action taken to reduce GHG emissions in one area causes an increase in emissions in another area where the rules that govern emissions are not as strict. We analyze the economywide impact of New Jersey’s rejoining RGGI, by developing and uniquely integrating two models – a power system investment and dispatch model, and an economy-wide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We analyzed the emission leakage impacts of six different scenarios varying with respect to the sensitivity of some key parameters. For each scenario, we modeled power system operations from 2020 through 2030 for a Reference scenario wherein NJ does not join RGGI and a policy sensitivity scenario in which it does. The results revealed, participation in RGGI results in New Jersey based power producers reducing their CO2 emissions by 45% (8.7 million tons [mt]) between 2020 and 2030. However, the model results also show that emissions from units located outside of New Jersey will increase by 11.6 mt, more than offsetting the reductions realized within New Jersey. Cumulatively, the CGE model predicted an increase in real gross state product (GSP) across all the scenarios when New Jersey joined RGGI with highest in the High CO2 Price scenario (0.82%) and lowest in the Low CO2 Price scenario (0.56%). The model predicted cumulative change in employment across sectors in the Reference scenario, with wind power generation gaining the highest number of jobs by 2030, followed by solar power, and transportation sectors. Overall job loss across other sectors of the economy is relatively small. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333434&r=ene |
| By: | Hadush Meles, Tensay; Farrell, Niall; Curtis, John |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp733&r=ene |
| By: | Franz Hamann (Banco de la Republica); Juan Camilo Mendez-Vizcaino (Banco de la Republica); Enrique G. Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania and NBER); Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) |
| Abstract: | Emerging economies that are large oil producers have sizable external debt, their country risk rises when oil prices fall, and several of them have defaulted at least once since 1979. Moreover, while oil and non-oil output reduce country risk on impact and in the long-run, oil reserves reduce it marginally on impact but increase it in the long-run. We propose a model of sovereign default and oil extraction consistent with these observations. The sovereign manages oil reserves strategically to make default less painful by altering the value of autarky, and hence its sustainable debt falls. All else equal, default is less likely in states in which reserves or oil prices are higher, or non-oil GDP is lower, but the equilibrium dynamics of reserves and country risk in response to oil-price shocks switch from negatively correlated on impact to positively correlated for several years. |
| Keywords: | Country Risk, Oil Prices, Oil Reserves, Sovereign Debt. |
| JEL: | E44 F4 F34 G12 H63 L72 |
| Date: | 2023–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:23-004&r=ene |
| By: | Bekkers, Eddy; Cariola, Gianmarco |
| Abstract: | The introduction of carbon pricing faces two main challenges: the need for global cooperation to tackle the collective action problem and the need to share the its burden in a fair way following the principle of common but differentiated responsibility (CBRD). In this paper we explore different ways to build a carbon pricing coalition while minimizing the welfare losses for low-income countries using simulations with a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We first present the need for and efficiency and urgency of global carbon pricing policies. Global carbon pricing is needed to tackle climate change, is more efficient than regional carbon pricing, and is urgent to prevent a patchwork of carbon pricing policies leading to calls for border carbon adjustment (BCA). Because the impact of global carbon pricing on the GDP of most regions is negative, complementary policies are required to tackle the two challenges. We explore four complementary policies: BCA, Nordhaus’s climate club, a global carbon incentive fund, and emission trading with progressive emission reduction targets. We evaluate these proposals based on their projected effects on average income and income inequality among countries, as well as their effectiveness as an incentive to introduce carbon pricing. BCA scores poorly along the three dimensions; Nordhaus’s carbon club performs well as an incentive tool but has a negative impact on average global income and inequality between regions; the global carbon fund has a positive impact on average income and inequality but performs poorly as an incentive tool; and emission trading with progressive reduction targets scores well across all dimensions. We conclude with a discussion of the feasibility of emission trading. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333407&r=ene |
| By: | Farrell, Niall; Meles, Tensay Hadush |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp744&r=ene |
| By: | Sandi, Eleni (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | The Minimum Energy Efficiency Standard (MEES) aims to improve the energy efficiency of privately rented properties in England and Wales. Previous literature identifies this policy intervention as a driver of transition risk as it devalues substandard real estate. This paper reveals that MEES also devalues neighbouring houses meant to be una↵ected by the policy, i.e. above-standard properties. The study leverages a dataset that combines energy efficiency and transaction data at the postcode level to capture this spatial externality. A concentration measure for sub-standard properties within a neighbourhood is constructed, which is applied to aggregate and property level analyses using a difference-in-difference specification. The aggregate analysis reveals that an incremental increase in the concentration of sub-standard housing within a postcode sector after introducing the standard leads to a 20.1% decrease in aggregate prices for above-standard houses. A repeated sales regression run on property-level data finds that an increase in concentration leads to a more plausible 4.03% decrease in prices for above-standard properties. These results imply potential problems for homeowners who may find themselves in negative equity due to the aggregate price drop, which may also negatively impact their pro-environmental investments |
| Keywords: | C43 ; Q54 ; Q58 ; R31 JEL classifications: Climate Policy ; Transition Risk ; House Prices ; Concentration Measure |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:wrkesp:47&r=ene |
| By: | Raphael Guionie (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - ONIRIS - École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - Nantes Université - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Rodica Loisel (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - ONIRIS - École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - Nantes Université - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Lionel Lemiale (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - ONIRIS - École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - Nantes Université - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université); Mathias Guerineau (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - ONIRIS - École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT Atlantique - IMT - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - Nantes Univ - IAE Nantes - Nantes Université - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - Nantes Université - pôle Sociétés - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Nantes Université - pôle Sciences et technologie - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université - Nantes Univ - ECN - Nantes Université - École Centrale de Nantes - Nantes Univ - Nantes Université) |
| Abstract: | Energy industry represents roughly 2% of the GDP in energy importing countries (France, 2019). Yet any energy shock can lead to massive disruptions in the economy, since some energy vectors have features of General Purpose Technology and Source (Noce, 2015). We use input-output models to assess impacts on the French economy from substitution of imported natural gas with domestic low-carbon hydrogen. A new sector producing hydrogen is introduced to supply petroleum refining and ammonia sectors, based on domestic inputs exclusively. Two input-output models are built, a demand-driven model for the emergence of the H2 sector (investment phase), and a mixed model for H2 production (operating phase). Results show that the energy shock (350 kt of low-carbon H2 per year) generates significant growth (1 bln€ of GDP) and jobs (12, 000), but needs ambitious planning for industrial development. Firstly, the investment phase triggers industries such as machinery and equipment, electrical equipment, construction and metal products manufacturing, suggesting that massive needs for labor requires more attractiveness to make the hydrogen infrastructure effective. Secondly, the hydrogen production being electricity intensive, the model shows very sensitive to this input and to the availability of power plants. At even higher shocks to remove all grey hydrogen in industry (415 kt H2) and steel production (700 kt H2), impressive domestic resources are required along with massive energy planning similar to the French nuclear program over 80s. |
| Keywords: | Input-output approach, linkages, BLI, FLI, gas imports, domestic hydrogen |
| Date: | 2023–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04011936&r=ene |
| By: | Longoria, Genaro; Lynch, Muireann Á.; Devine, Mel; Curtis, John |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp734&r=ene |
| By: | Hilde C. Bjørnland; Yoosoon Chang; Jamie L. Cross |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a new mixed vector autoregression (MVAR) model to examine the relationship between aggregate time series and functional variables in a multivariate setting. The model facilitates a re-examination of the oil-stock price nexus by estimating the effects of demand and supply shocks from the global market for crude oil on the entire distribution of U.S. stock returns since the late 1980s. We show that the MVAR effectively extracts information from the returns distribution that is more relevant for understanding the oil-stock price nexus beyond simply looking at the first few moments. Using novel functional impulse response functions (FIRFs), we find that oil market demand and supply shocks tend to increase returns, reduce volatility, and have an asymmetric effect on the returns distribution as a whole. In a value-at-risk (VaR) analysis we also find that the oil market contains important information that reduces expected loss, and that the response of VaR to the oil market demand and supply shocks has changed over time. |
| Keywords: | Oil market, stock market, oil-stock price nexus, functional VAR |
| JEL: | C13 C32 C58 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2023-18&r=ene |
| By: | Phoebe W Ishak (Freie Universität Berlin); Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (Philipps Universität Marburg = Philipps University of Marburg) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we look at how oil price shocks affect the incidence of protests in a country and how the size of a country's shadow economy influences this relationship. Using panel data from 144 countries, from the period of 1991-2015, we find evidence that negative oil price shocks significantly increase protests in countries with small shadow economies. The effect dissipates as the size of the shadow economy increases and eventually vanishes in countries with a shadow economy representing more than 35% of gross domestic product. Our analysis departs from existing literature by emphasizing the moderating role of a shadow economy on the effects of negative oil shocks on the incidence of protests in oil-dependent economies. The results are robust to various specifications and their broader implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | conflict, oil price shocks, protest, resource curse, shadow economy |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03997877&r=ene |
| By: | Dogan, Berna; Tekgüç, Hasan; Yeldan, A. Erinç |
| Abstract: | The limited success of employment-based social protection measures under the diverging patterns of post-covid recovery rekindled the interest in a social policy framework known as the Basic Income (BI) support. The goal of this study is to assess the macroeconomic feasibility of a BI policy for Turkey with a green design. We test the potential of the BI program using five alternative scenarios distinguished by coverage of the receivers and their respective fiscal costs. We then employ an applied general equilibrium model to analyze the economy-wide effects and welfare implications for Turkey in the long-run through 2030. The dynamic macro results of our modeling effort indicate that BI has the potential for a significant social welfare enhancing impact for Turkey; yet, pursuing the BI mandate without any compensating fiscal consolidation is not manageable in the medium to longer run. To achieve the warranted policy space we evaluate the macroeconomic and welfare effects of an alternative fiscal program comprising of (i) carbon tax levied on the fossil fuel producing industry, (ii) corporate income taxation policy reform that aims at expanding the revenue base and consolidation of the fiscal space of the government, and (iii) re-structuring of public consumption expenditures by introducing rationality and efficiency in the structure of fiscal expenditures. Our model solutions reveal that a green BI scenario not only achieves a higher GDP and welfare in the medium to long run, but also helps Turkey to reduce its carbon emissions in line with the global policy challenges of a green recovery. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333496&r=ene |
| By: | Frédéric Cherbonnier (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Christian Gollier (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | When evaluating public and private investment projects, those that contribute more to the collective risk should be more penalized through an upward adjustment of their discount rate. This paper shows how to estimate the risk-adjusted discount rate for different projects, with applications to the electricity sector. Using the standard framework of consumer theory, we express any investment project's beta in terms of the easier-to-measure price and income elasticities of the goods generated by the project. When considering an investment in production capacity, the beta has a flat term structure, and is positive (negative) for normal (inferior) goods. When considering core infrastructures carrying goods or services, such as energy transmission and distribution assets, the beta has a decreasing term structure with very high values at short horizons for infrastructures facing capacity constraints. We provide a real-case example of a cross-border electricity connection with negative beta for the exporting country. |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04012977&r=ene |
| By: | Xinming Du |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first causal evidence that hostile activities online lead to physical violence. Given the recently documented relationship between pollution and social media, I exploit exogenous variation in local air quality as the first step to instrument for online aggression. In an event study setting, I find volatile organic compounds (VOCs) increase by 7% when refineries experience unexpected production outages. Together with higher air pollution, I find more aggressive behaviors both online and offline, as well as worse health outcomes near refineries. A one standard deviation increase in surrounding VOCs leads to 0.16 more hate crimes against Black people and 0.23 more hospital visits per thousand people each day. Second, I consider how emotional contagion spreads through social networks. On days with pollution spikes, surrounding areas see 30% more offensive and racist tweets and 12% more crimes; those geographically distant but socially networked regions also see offensive and racist tweets increase by 3% and more crimes by 4.5%. Nationally, overlooking spillovers would underestimate crime effects of pollution by 24%. My findings highlight the consequences of social media hostility and contribute to the public debate on cyberspace regulation. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10296&r=ene |
| By: | Horn, Claudia |
| Abstract: | Emissions trading and nature-based solutions, particularly REDD+, have lent themselves to the critical literature on the “socioecological fix” in neoliberal capital accumulation and state regulation. Prone to reversals, land conflict, and leakage, these mechanisms displace the burden of carbon emissions reductions to global South countries, promote new green commodities, and thus increase rather than curb the chance of capital accumulations by big polluters. Studies of existing REDD+ projects register the privatisation of forest management on the one hand and “aidification” on the other, suggesting impediments to fully commodifying forest carbon ranging from social movement resistance to technical issues. This case study of Brazil's national Amazon Fund points to global South protagonism in constructing and negotiating REDD+, challenging Northern and market hegemonies. Progressive Southern actors use the political space of the fix to defend rural communities' territorial rights and demand resources in line with historic responsibilities and climate justice. |
| Keywords: | Amazon Fund; Brazil; carbon markets; green economy; green fix; socioenvironmental fix; Wiley deal |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2023–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118136&r=ene |
| By: | Avila Uribe, Antonio |
| Abstract: | A growing literature has documented sizeable negative effects of air pollution on individuals’ health, labour market performance and human capital accumulation, all determinants of a country’s overall economic activity. So what are the effects of air pollution on aggregate economic production? To answer this, I study the effects of PM2.5 on county-level GDP, GDP per capita, and GDP per employee in the United States (2006-2018) by exploiting a detailed dataset of yearly air pollution exposure by county and a set of instrumental variables. In my main specification, I use exogenous year-to-year variation in wildfire-induced PM2.5 exposure from air trajectories simulations. Contrary to recent studies in China and the EU, which find large negative effects in all regions, my results show no effect for the US. However, these headline results mask spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Economically relevant negative effects appear to be present in rural areas during working days or when base levels or air pollution are above the median, and in the trade sector and educational services. The results are robust to various alternative specifications and alternative instruments previously used in the literature, such as thermal inversions or smoke plume polygons. |
| Keywords: | air pollution; GDP; productivity; US; wildfires |
| JEL: | R11 Q53 Q54 O40 O47 O51 |
| Date: | 2023–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:118481&r=ene |
| By: | Nathalie Touratier-Muller (ESC PAU - Ecole Supérieure de Commerce, Pau Business School); Karim Machat (LIREM - Laboratoire de Recherche en Management (LIREM) - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Jacques Jaussaud (TREE - Transitions Energétiques et Environnementales - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the behaviour of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) regarding mandatory and voluntary measures established by the French government to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions generated by freight transport operations. Through semi-structured interviews with fourteen SMEs (five shippers, eight carriers and a consultant) located throughout France, this research examines the integration of sustainable development into organizational and decision-making practices since the introduction of these programmes on the French territory. Our qualitative study suggests that active environmental implications stem mainly from the company's internal dynamics, driven by its management, as well as end customers' expectations. The voluntary policies seem to appeal more to SMEs than the mandatory measures implemented since 2013. This research shows that the carriers surveyed are highly environmentally proactive, regardless of their size. It also sheds light on techniques that could increase the efficiency and widespread adoption of governmental measures, in particular through the increasing use of on-board telematics. |
| Abstract: | Cet article explore le comportement des petites et moyennes entreprises (PME) suite aux dispositifs obligatoires et volontaires mis en place par le gouvernement français pour réduire les émissions de CO2 générées par le transport de marchandises. Grâce à des entretiens semi-directifs réalisés auprès de quatorze entreprises réparties sur le territoire français (cinq chargeurs, huit transporteurs et un consultant), nous examinons la prise en compte du développement durable dans les pratiques organisationnelles et décisionnelles des PME depuis l'apparition de ces dispositifs. Notre étude qualitative suggère que les implications environnementales actives découlent principalement de la dynamique interne de l'entreprise, pilotée par sa direction, ainsi que des attentes des clients finaux. Ce sont les démarches volontaires qui semblent séduire davantage les PME par rapport aux dispositifs obligatoires mis en place depuis 2013. Nous identifions une forte proactivité environnementale des transporteurs interrogés, quelle que soit leur taille. Notre travail apporte également un éclairage sur les techniques qui permettraient d'accroître l'efficacité et l'adoption des dispositifs gouvernementaux, notamment via une utilisation croissante de la télématique embarquée. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable transportation, government programmes, freight transport, SME, CO2 emissions reduction, Transport durable, dispositifs gouvernementaux, transport de fret, PME, réduction des émissions de CO2 |
| Date: | 2023–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03691089&r=ene |
| By: | Rim Rejeb (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Hélène Bouscasse (CESAER - Centre d'Economie et de Sociologie Rurales Appliquées à l'Agriculture et aux Espaces Ruraux - AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Sandrine Mathy (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Carole Treibich (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | Although France is exposed to significant levels of air pollution, it is lagging behind its European neighbors in the implementation of low-emission zones (LEZs). Acceptability issues seem to be central to this delay. The Climate and Resilience Law passed in 2021 introduces the obligation for cities with more than 150, 000 inhabitants to implement a LEZ by the end of 2024. Thirty-three new urban areas in France are thus concerned, including the Grenoble metropolitan area. Using original survey data, this article proposes an ex-ante evaluation of the acceptability of this future LEZ and its determinants. The analysis is based on original data collected through a telephone survey. Using bivariate analysis and binary logit regression, we found a good level of acceptability of the LEZ on average, but with lower levels for individuals directly affected by the traffic restrictions. The results show that acceptability is mainly determined by positive attitudes and individual perceptions of the LEZ and less influenced by socio-demographic characteristics. |
| Abstract: | Bien qu'elle soit exposée à des niveaux importants de pollution atmosphérique, la France est en retard par rapport à ses voisins européens dans la mise en oeuvre des zones à faibles émissions (ZFE). Les questions d'acceptabilité semblent être centrales pour expliquer ce retard. La loi Climat et Résilience votée en 2021 introduit l'obligation pour les villes de plus de 150.000 habitants de mettre en place une ZFE d'ici fin 2024. Trente-trois nouvelles zones urbaines en France sont ainsi concernées dont l'agglomération de Grenoble. A travers des données originales d'enquête cet article propose une évaluation ex-ante de l'acceptabilité de cette future ZFE et de ses déterminants. L'analyse s'appuie sur des données originales recueillies par une enquête téléphonique. La mise en oeuvre d'une analyse bivariée et d'une régression logit binaire nous a permis d'observer un bon niveau d'acceptabilité de la ZFE en moyenne, mais avec des niveaux moindres pour les individus directement concernés par les restrictions de circulation. Les résultats montrent que l'acceptabilité est principalement déterminée par les attitudes positives et les perceptions individuelles de la ZFE et moins influencée par les caractéristiques sociodémographiques. |
| Keywords: | Low emission zones, Social acceptability, Econometric analysis, France, Zones à faible émissions, Acceptabilité sociale, Analyse économétrique |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03996727&r=ene |
| By: | Lapillonne, Bruno; Bossebouef, Didier; Sudries, Laura; Contreras Lisperguer, Rubén; Salgado, René; Messina, Diego |
| Abstract: | This document, prepared by the French Agency for Ecological Transition (ADEME) and the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), is intended to assess the status on energy indicators relating to Goal 7 of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in Latin America and the Caribbean. It was prepared in the framework of the “Energy Efficiency Indicators Database” project, which aims to build technical capacities in the countries of the region to monitor progress towards affordable, efficient, safe and modern energy. |
| Keywords: | AGENDA 2030 PARA EL DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, OBJETIVOS DE DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, RECURSOS ENERGETICOS, POLITICA ENERGETICA, ENERGIA SOSTENIBLE, RENDIMIENTO ENERGETICO, HOGARES, TRANSPORTE, INDUSTRIA, COMERCIO DE SERVICIOS, AGRICULTURA, ESTADISTICAS DE ENERGIA, 2030 AGENDA FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS, ENERGY RESOURCES, ENERGY POLICY, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, HOUSEHOLDS, TRANSPORT, INDUSTRY, TRADE IN SERVICES, AGRICULTURE, ENERGY STATISTICS |
| Date: | 2023–02–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:48709&r=ene |
| By: | Bonander, Carl; Jakobsson, Niklas; Johansson, Naimi |
| Abstract: | This report presents a replication of Andersson (2019) performed at the Toronto Replication Games in 2023. Andersson (2019) estimates the effect of carbon taxes on CO2 emissions in Sweden using the synthetic control method. His findings indicate a 10.9 percent reduction in emissions during the 1990-2005 period, which equates to -0.29 metric tons of CO2 per capita in an average year. The results from an in-space placebo test show that Sweden had the highest post/pre-mean squared prediction error (MSPE) ratio, resulting in a placebo-based p-value of 1/15=0.067. We successfully reproduce these findings and conduct a series of pre-specified replication analyses to examine how robust the findings are to model specification choices. We run 14 alternative specifications with various combinations of pre-treatment outcome values, with and without covariates. The median point estimate from our replication analyses is -0.28 metric tons of CO2 per capita (min: -0.34, max: -0.17). Placebo-based p-values are equal to 1/15=0.067 in seven specifications, 2/15=0.13 in six, and 4/15=0.27 in one. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:26&r=ene |
| By: | Gessner, Johannes; Habla, Wolfgang; Wagner, Ulrich J. |
| Abstract: | In a field experiment with 341 participants, we study whether social comparisons, either in isolation or in combination with a climate-related moral appeal, can change the use of public and car-related transportation. We do so in the context of a mobility budget offered to employees of a large German company as an alternative to a company car. The budget can be used to pay for both leisure and commuting trips, and for various modes of transport. Behavioral interventions in this setting are of particular interest, since companies are constrained to significantly alter financial benefits to employees yet strive to lower carbon emissions via a shift to low-emission transport modes. We find strong evidence for a reduction in car-related mobility in response to the combined treatment, driven by reduced expenditures for taxi and UBER rides. This is accompanied by substitution towards micromobility, but not towards public transport. Furthermore, we do not find any effects of the social comparison alone. Our results demonstrate that norm-based nudges are able to change transportation behavior, at least temporarily. |
| Keywords: | mobility behavior, randomized experiment, nudging, descriptive norm, injunctive norm, social norms, moral appeal, habit formation |
| JEL: | C93 D04 D91 L91 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:23003&r=ene |
| By: | Lint Barrage (Center of Economic Research, ETH Zurich, Zurichbergstrasse 18, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the …scal impacts of climate change and their policy implications for the United States. I develop and empirically quantify a climate-macroeconomic model where climate change can a¤ect (i) government consumption requirements (e.g., healthcare), (ii) transfer payments (e.g., income support), (iii) tax revenues, and where (iv) adaptation to sea level rise (e.g., sea walls) must be publicly …nanced. First, the paper presents a novel bottom-up quanti…cation of …scal costs based on literature synthesis and an empirical analysis of public healthcare costs associated with extreme temperatures and wild…res. Climate change is projected to increase total government consumption (transfer) requirements by around 2.2% (0.4%) by 2100 in a business-as-usual climate policy scenario, with healthcare accounting for the majority of cost increases. Second, I show theoretically that the social cost of carbon must account for climate impacts on both government consumption and household transfer payments if the marginal cost of public funds exceeds unity. Finally, the numerical results indicate that …scal considerations are of …rst order importance for climate policy design. The elasticity of the social cost of carbon with respect to government consumption (transfer) impacts per degree warming is estimated to be around 20 (10). Accounting for …scal considerations moreover increases the projected domestic U.S. welfare bene…ts of climate policy by up to a factor of three. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:23-380&r=ene |
| By: | Alberto Prati (UCL - University College of London [London], University of Oxford, CEP - LSE - Centre for Economic Performance - LSE - London School of Economics and Political Science); Olivier Chanel (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Morgan Raux (University of Luxembourg [Luxembourg]) |
| Abstract: | Each year, the international job market for economists involves more than 1, 000 candidates and several hundred recruiters from around the world meeting for short pre-screening interviews at annual congresses in Europe and the United States. Alberto Prati, Olivier Chanel and Morgan Raux argue that it's time to reassess this unsustainable system and estimate the carbon footprint of alternatives. |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03998967&r=ene |
| By: | Jussila Hammes, Johanna (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Johansson, Magnus (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)) |
| Abstract: | Increasing climate ambitions mean that emissions of greenhouse gases, even from the aviation sector, must fall. The purpose of this study has been to contribute to this development by doing a benefit-cost analysis of all-electric aviation (AEA). We define AEA as battery-driven aviation without a combustion engine or fuel cell on board. Since the technology only exists in very small scale today, much of the work has been to find guestimates of the costs. However, we have been able to build on very good data on all take-offs and landings in Sweden year 2019. On the other hand, the data we have had on ticket prices is very poor. Based on the available data, we have estimated supply and demand functions for conventional flight in 2019. These estimates have been used to calculate the producer and consumer surpluses from flight, both in 2019, in the business-as-usual using sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), and for AEAs, the latter two in 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. The results indicate that at least from 2040 onwards, with the introduction of larger aircraft with the capacity of up to 100 passengers and a range of 650 km, AEAs will be commercially viable on many, if not all routes studied. AEAs seem to have a higher producer surplus than conventional, SAF-driven aircraft. Since AEAs, at least in 2030 and 2040 are slower than conventional aircraft, the consumer surplus falls given fixed ticket prices. We also calculate the benefits from reduced high-altitude effects, which gives a measure of the societal benefits from AEA and thus an indication of how much public funds that could be invested in airport infrastructure for AEAs. We recommend that investments for AEA infrastructure start from a few airports and are expanded over time. The only further policy we recommend is R&D subsidies for AEA and battery technology development. No other policy instruments seem to be necessary to get AEAs to fly. |
| Keywords: | All-electric aviation; Benefit-cost analysis; Regional flight; Sweden |
| JEL: | D61 D62 R41 |
| Date: | 2023–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2023_003&r=ene |
| By: | Maria Mansanet-Bataller (Université de Franche-Comté, CRESE, F-25000 Besançon, France); Àngel Pardo (Department of Financial Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Valencia, Avenida de los Naranjos s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Several papers by academics and various reports by financial analysts suggest that non-compliance traders, mostly investment funds and firms, are manipulating the EU ETS and causing EUA prices to rise. In response, the European Commission has mandated the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) to investigate whether “certain trading behaviours would require further regulatory actions” (ESMA, 2021). The objective of this paper is (i) to analyse the participation of non-compliance traders in the EU ETS and their role in the financialisation of the scheme, and (ii) to contribute to the debate on price manipulation by the non-compliance sector in the EU ETS. Both our analysis of the EUA Commitments of Traders reports and our review of the main findings of the empirical papers on portfolio management with EUAs suggest that non-compliance traders mainly take short positions in the European carbon futures market in order to arbitrage the spot market. Only a small portion of the long positions are used by financial investors to diversify or hedge risks coming from financial markets. Therefore, in both situations, non-compliance traders would be acting as long-term liquidity providers rather than speculators. |
| Keywords: | arbitrage, diversify, EUA, financialisation, hedge, speculate |
| JEL: | G15 G20 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crb:wpaper:2023-01&r=ene |
| By: | Bocar Samba Ba (CREATE - Center for Research on the Economics of the Environment, Agri-food, Transports and Energy); Raphael Soubeyran (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement - UM - Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | We study the exploitation of recyclable exhaustible resources such as metals that are crucial for the energy transition or phosphorus that is crucial for agricultural production. We use a standard Hotelling model of resource exploitation that includes a primary sector and a recycling sector. We study two polar cases: competitive and monopolistic extraction. We show that, when the primary sector is competitive, the Hotelling's rule holds and the price of the recyclable resource increases over time. We then show a new reason why the price of an exhaustible resource may decrease: when the primary sector is monopolistic, the primary producer has incentives to delay its production activities in order to delay recycling. As a consequence, the price path of the recyclable resource may be U-shaped. Numerical simulations reveal that the monopolist has an incentive to delay extraction when the recoverability rate is high (because more recycled goods are produced) or when the recoverability rate is low (when fewer recycled goods are expected to be produced in the future). As a consequence, the date of exhaustion of the virgin resource is further away in time for high and low levels of recoverability than for intermediate levels. |
| Keywords: | Non-renewable, Recycling, Monopoly, Competition, Market power, Optimal control |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04015636&r=ene |
| By: | Fabrizio Bernardi; Risto Conte Keivabu (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study social stratification in the impact of poor air quality on educational achievement. We address two main questions. First, are students from socioeconomically disadvantaged families more likely to attend schools with poor air quality? Second, is the effect of bad air quality for school results the same for children from high and low socioeconomic status families? We use a novel data set with test scores in math and reading for 456, 508 students in 8th grade in a test administered nationally in Italy in 2019. We geocode the location of 6, 882 schools based on their addresses and link the level of air pollution of the area around the school, using data on fine particulate matter provided by the Atmospheric Composition Analysis Group. To deal with possible confounders we use municipality fixed effects and control for an indicator of the characteristics of the school neighbourhood, using administrative fiscal data of the real estate values of the area around the school. We have three main findings. First, there is no SES gradient in the exposure to poor air at school. Second, we find a small but robust negative effect of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) on test scores in math but not in reading. Third, this effect is mostly concentrated among low SES students. Conversely, high SES students are largely unaffected by exposure to poor air quality at school. We conclude that exposure to air pollution can exacerbate inequalities in education and the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage. |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-014&r=ene |
| By: | Timothy N. Cason; John K. Stranlund; Frans P. de Vries |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pur:prukra:1331&r=ene |
| By: | Dana Sofía Olguín |
| Keywords: | hidrocarburos, precios de energía, subsidios, desarrollo sustentable, bienestar |
| JEL: | H22 Q35 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4499&r=ene |
| By: | Chepeliev, Maksym; Aguiar, Angel; Farole, Thomas; Liverani, Andrea; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique |
| Abstract: | Rapidly increasing material extraction is putting major pressure on ecosystems. Future increases in incomes and population could result in over 2.5 times growth in global material demand by 2050, putting even more pressure on environment. Thus, an absolute decoupling of material use from GDP and income is of major importance to preserve the safe operating boundaries. It is vital to understand how current policy efforts, including climate mitigation, could impact material use patterns and what complementary circular economy (CE) policies should be implemented to support dematerialization. Here we develop a special version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database (GTAP-CE) with detailed representation of primary, secondary, and recycling activities for metals (steel, aluminum, copper, etc.) and plastics. We also incorporate quantity flows of metal ores and non-metallic minerals. We investigate a set of scenarios focusing on Europe that include mitigation and CE-specific policies using a dynamic general equilibrium model (ENVISAGE). A set of CE-specific policies includes fiscal measures to stimulate recycling and penalize primary production, extraction levies (for non-metallic minerals), and demand-side measures, such as shifts in consumption patterns toward dematerialization, changes in the product design and product lifetime extensions. We also model various border tax adjustments covering embodied raw materials and consider alternative revenue recycling mechanisms. Our results indicate that EU mitigation measures will have a moderate impact on material use. Similarly, materials-focused measures will have only a modest impact on CO2 emissions. Aggregate material use in the EU could decline up to 8-11% (relative to baseline in 2030) under alternative CE policies allowing to achieve absolute decoupling. We also find that using CE production taxes’ revenue to reduce labor taxes would lead to increase of growth and welfare. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333431&r=ene |
| By: | François Geerolf (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | In a controversial policy paper, Bachmann et al. (2022) argued back in March 2022 that the economic effects for Germany of a complete immediate stop of energy imports from Russia would be small, between 0.5% and 3% of GDP loss. A few weeks later, Baqaee et al. (2022) even presented 0.3% GDP loss in the case of an embargo as the headline number, in a follow-up report for the French Council of Economic Analysis (CAE). This note argues that these estimates are both problematic from a scientific point of view, and also strongly biased towards finding small effects of a gas embargo: this is true of the (socalled) "Baqaee-Farhi approach" arriving at 0.2-0.3% of GDP, the "production function approach" arriving at 1.5% to 2.3% of GDP, as well as the "sufficient statistics approach" (also based on Baqaee-Farhi) arriving at 1% of GDP. This note argues that Olaf Scholz was correct in saying that the mathematical models which were used "don't really work" here, and tries to explain why. In any case, these models do not permit such categorical statements. |
| Keywords: | energy, sanctions, economic models |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-04015954&r=ene |
| By: | Wittwer, Glyn |
| Abstract: | The TERM (The Enormous Regional Model) methodology has been applied to many countries over the past two decades to model sub-national regional impacts of policy scenarios. The methodology does not rely on sub-national regional input-output tables. Instead, estimates of regional activity shares are used to split a national CGE database into regions. Activity shares are based on industry by region employment numbers extracted from census data, regional agricultural and mining activity data and international trade data by port. EuroTERM provides an example of extending the TERM methodology. First, the GTAP master database is aggregated for non-European nations while keeping 31 European nations plus Russia, Ukraine and Moldova (proxied by Rest of Eastern Europe) represented separately. The database is reconfigured to 34 individual CGE databases. Using NUTS2 data based on similar raw data as TERM, regional shares are estimated. Eurostats is the main source of these data. Regional shares provide the basis for splitting 24 European CGE databases to the NUTS-2 level. The other 10 nations remain as single regions. Industry cost structures or technologies are based on GTAP data for each nation. This approach differs from single-nation TERM, in which a single industry technology applies to each region. The methodology used to estimate inter-regional trades in TERM has been modified to accommodate matrices of known international trades from GTAP, while splitting origins and destinations into sub-national regions. Port activity data also contribute to estimation of sub-national trade matrices. Electricity Global data on power plants by location have contributed to a split of electricity into 9 generating sectors plus distribution. The war in Ukraine has provided motivation for adding Ukraine, represented by 24 oblasts plus Kyiv city. The EuroTERM master database at present includes 74 sectors in 322 regions. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333470&r=ene |
| By: | Latorre, Maria C.; Yonezawa, Hidemichi; Olekseyuk, Zoryana |
| Abstract: | The EU-Mercosur agreement has raised a hot debate, particularly due to its potential environmental effects. We estimate its impact using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with 41 sectors-4 factors-6 region (EU27, Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and ROW), which has three advanced features: 1) Climate of competition à la Melitz (2003) in various manufacturing sectors, which allows us to grasp productivity effects related to trade; 2) Foreign multinationals in advanced service sectors, operating à la Krugman (1980), which is suitable to grasp multinationals’ behavior; 3) CO2 emissions across sectors and regions. Our results point out that this agreement is a “win-win” for its signatories. Everyone wins, but the impact will be more visible in the Latin American side. Our analysis of the total imports of the EU27 shows that this agreement allows the Mercosur countries to export products in which they have a comparative advantage, while moving their export basket towards more complex products. It also allows the European side to improve its specialization in more complex sectors. For year 16, i.e., after 15 years of implementation, the agreement generates a small increase (0.14%) in CO2 emissions by the EU-Mercosur region which, however, translates into an improvement in the emissions/GDP ratio of the EU-Mercosur region (0, 17% GDP increase). The improvement in the emissions/GDP ratio also holds for the world as a whole.The impacts we derive are generally larger and more positive than the ones in the literature. This is firstly because our modeling includes components of the final agreement reached (Agreement in Principle of June 28, 2019) that, to our knowledge, have not yet been included in most previous studies, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in services and government procurement. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333488&r=ene |
| By: | Reaños, Miguel Tovar; De Bruin, Kelly; Meier, David; Yakut, Aykut Mert |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp739&r=ene |
| By: | Langot, François; Malmberg, Selma; Tripier, Fabien; Hairault, Jean-Olivier |
| Abstract: | Dans la perspective de la transition énergétique de la France, cette note évalue l’efficacité des politiques macroéconomiques de court terme visant à favoriser l’acceptabilité sociale d’une taxe carbone. L’évaluation est menée à partir du modèle d’analyse de la conjoncture de l’Observatoire Macro du CEPREMAP (CepreHANK) permettant de réaliser des prévisions de croissance, d’inflation, de dette publique et d’inégalités pour la France. Nous considérons une hausse de la taxe carbone sur la période 2024-2027 similaire à celle qui avait été envisagée en 2018 avant le mouvement des gilets jaunes. La taxe carbone agit sur l’économie comme un choc d’offre négatif qui contracte l’activité économique, augmente le niveau des prix et frappe particulièrement les ménages défavorisés qui consacrent une plus grande part de leurs revenus à l’énergie. Ces coûts en termes d’activité économique et d’inégalités freinent l’acceptabilité sociale de la taxe carbone. Comment les atténuer pour rendre acceptable cette taxe carbone ? Si la Banque Centrale Européenne est plus accommodante, alors la croissance est préservée, sans porter préjudice à l’objectif de diminution de la consommation énergétique et les recettes fiscales de la taxe carbone permettent de réduire la dette publique. Plus surprenant, cet accompagnement monétaire permet de réduire les inégalités via la baisse du taux d’intérêt réel. Si la hausse transitoire de l’inflation ne déstabilise pas les anticipations, cette croissance « égalitaire » rendrait acceptable la taxe carbone. En l’absence de cette politique monétaire plus accommodante, redistribuer aux ménages modestes les recettes fiscales de la taxe carbone ferait perdre de la croissance et réduirait peu les inégalités. Utiliser les recettes de la taxe carbone pour investir dans la rénovation énergétique préserve mieux la croissance tout en limitant la montée des inégalités. Comme ces deux politiques stimulent la demande, et sont donc inflationnistes, elles amènent la Banque Centrale Européenne à remonter son taux directeur, ce qui freine l’activité et augmente les inégalités via la hausse du taux d’intérêt réel profitable aux revenus du patrimoine. La comparaison de ces politiques montre que le comportement de la banque centrale, via la fixation de son taux directeur, est déterminant pour l’acceptabilité sociale de la taxe carbone. |
| Keywords: | France, taxe carbone, macroéconomie, acceptablitié |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpm:notmac:2301&r=ene |
| By: | Alou Adessé Dama (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Vianney Dequiedt (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Audrey-Anne de Ubeda (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Grégoire Rota-Graziosi (FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International, UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne, CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
| Abstract: | Lever l'exonération fiscale dont bénéficie le kérosène utilisé pour les vols internationaux est une demande récurrente de nombreux acteurs engagés pour le développement durable. Actuellement, cette exonération maintient la tarification carbone du kérosène à un niveau excessivement bas et s'avère incohérente avec les objectifs de décarbonation que se fixe la communauté internationale. Une taxe de 0, 33 euro par litre permettrait de récolter 18 milliards d'euros par an, tandis qu'une taxe de 0, 1 euro par litre permettrait de récolter 5, 8 milliards d'euros par an. Cette taxe reposerait in fine sur un principe pollueur-payeur et la structure concentrée du secteur devrait en faciliter la collecte. Si des négociations internationales sont incontournables pour une adoption au niveau mondial, l'instauration d'une telle taxe, ou du moins la fin de l'exonération fiscale actuelle, ne contredit pas la Convention de Chicago qui pose depuis 1944 les bases de la coopération internationale en matière d'aviation civile. Bien qu'elle ne puisse suffire à elle seule à financer les besoins des pays du Sud en matière d'adaptation au changement climatique, la taxation des carburants de l'aviation civile est une piste intéressante pour abonder à court terme un fonds à destination des pays vulnérables. À plus long terme, une telle taxation accélérerait la transition bas carbone du secteur de l'aviation civile internationale. |
| Keywords: | Taxation, Kérosène, Aviation civile, Fonds pertes et dommages, Financement des pays vulnérables |
| Date: | 2023–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04021052&r=ene |
| By: | Tarik Benmarhnia; Anna Alari; Olivier Chanel (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Benjamin Rous; Sylvia Medina; Vérène Wagner; Mathilde Pascal; Perrine de Crouy Chanel; Sabine Host; Magali Corso; Alain Le Tertre; Basile Chaix |
| Date: | 2022–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03998412&r=ene |
| By: | Timmons, Shane; Andersson, Ylva; Lunn, Pete |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp731&r=ene |
| By: | Dominique Barjot (CRM - Centre de Recherche Roland Mousnier Histoire et Civilisation - EPHE - École pratique des hautes études - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Over the long-term, public-private partnerships constituted a means of conciliating the social function of public services and public works, whilst limiting their costs for citizens. It was the case with the use of the concession system in the utilities, even after the massive waves of nationalizations in France in 1944-1946, then 1981-1982. Indeed, from the end of the 1980s, there was a return to the concession system, which was combined with Anglo-Saxon practices, including Build Operate Transfers (BOT) and Public-Private partnerships (PPP). The French model of concession contributed significantly towards the international development of the French Colonial Empire, it was an excellent instrument for French capitalism around the world (Compagnie du Canal de Suez). After World War Two, the concession remained a competitive system: indeed, France produced four important private groups (GDF-Suez, Veolia Environnement, Vinci and Bouygues). The world competitiveness of these French groups resulted of a long-term tradition of interest on the part of engineers in networks systems (École Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, Ecole Centrale de Paris) and questions relating to energy (Écoles Nationales des Mines), but also due to the intervention of French banks as Suez or Paribas in major international ventures. Building Suez (today Engie) constituted a quasi-perfect example of the French experience: take-over of the Société Générale de Belgique (1988), merger Lyonnaise des Eaux-Dumez (1990), then Suez-Lyonnaise des Eaux (1997), finally merger GDF-Suez (2008). |
| Abstract: | Sur le long terme, les partenariats public-privé ont constitué un moyen de concilier la fonction sociale des services et travaux publics, tout en limitant leurs coûts pour les citoyens. Ce fut le cas avec l'utilisation du système de concession dans les services publics, même après les vagues massives de nationalisations en France en 1944-1946, puis en 1981-1982. En effet, à partir de la fin des années 1980, il y a eu un retour au système de concession, qui a été combiné avec des pratiques anglo-saxonnes, notamment le Build Operate Transfers (BOT) et les partenariats public-privé (PPP). Le modèle français de concession a contribué de manière significative au développement international de l'Empire colonial français, il a été un excellent instrument pour le capitalisme français dans le monde (Compagnie du Canal de Suez). Après la seconde guerre mondiale, la concession est restée un système compétitif : en effet, la France a produit quatre groupes privés importants (GDF-Suez, Veolia Environnement, Vinci et Bouygues). La compétitivité mondiale de ces groupes français résulte d'une longue tradition d'intérêt des ingénieurs pour les systèmes de réseaux (École Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, École Centrale de Paris) et les questions relatives à l'énergie (Écoles Nationales des Mines), mais aussi de l'intervention de banques françaises comme Suez ou Paribas dans de grands projets internationaux. La construction de Suez (aujourd'hui Engie) a constitué un exemple quasi-parfait de l'expérience française : rachat de la Société Générale de Belgique (1988), fusion Lyonnaise des Eaux-Dumez (1990), puis Suez-Lyonnaise des Eaux (1997), enfin fusion GDF-Suez (2008). |
| Date: | 2023–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04010657&r=ene |