|
on Energy Economics |
| By: | Mr. Andrea Pescatori; Mr. John C Bluedorn; Mr. Christoffer Koch; Silvia Albrizio; Martin Stuermer |
| Abstract: | We assess the supply-side effects on European Union (EU) economic activity if Russian gas imports were to suddenly cease. Unlike other studies, we account for the global scope of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market. In the absence of frictions, an open-economy, multi-sector general equilibrium model suggests that the adverse economic impact on the EU shrinks five-fold if integration with the global LNG market is considered. While greater integration provides a buffer for the EU through trade, the flip side is that other LNG importers (such as Japan, South Korea, and Pakistan) see adverse effects from higher prices. |
| Keywords: | Supply disruptions; commodities; natural gas; energy; international trade; sanctions; spillovers |
| Date: | 2022–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/143&r= |
| By: | Alessandro Borin (Bank of Italy); Francesco Paolo Conteduca (Bank of Italy); Enrica Di Stefano (Bank of Italy); Vanessa Gunnella (European Central Bank); Michele Mancini (European Central Bank); Ludovic Panon (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We provide a quantification of the impact through international trade of the restrictive measures and related trade disruptions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We first exploit the multi-sector, multi-country, general equilibrium trade model by Antr’and Chor (2018). In this framework, Russia would suffer greatly from trade disruptions. Adding restrictive measures on energy exports would further amplify this loss. For sanctioning countries, the welfare impact is modest. This result arises mainly because the used model allows for a high degree of substitutability across inputs and countries, a feature arguably unrealistic especially in the short-run. When we relax this assumption by relying on the framework proposed by Bachmann et al. (2022) extended to a multi-country setting, we show that the impact on sanctioning countries might increase markedly in the short run and would be very sensitive to small changes in countries’ possibility to diversify away from Russian energy. |
| Keywords: | war, trade disruptions, energy shock, international trade, global value chains |
| JEL: | F51 F15 F17 Q43 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_700_22&r= |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | The impacts of the war in Ukraine will be felt severely within OECD economies, especially in border regions on the front-line of the humanitarian refugee crisis. The economic impacts, in particular those driven by rising energy prices, will also be spatially differentiated, affecting some regions more than others. Italy is no exception, with gas-intensive industries concentrated in northern regions, and wheat-based food and farming prevailing in southern regions and islands. While, overall, Russia accounted for a minor share of Italian exports, some regions and industries are more vulnerable than others to falls in bilateral trade, including destinations popular with high per-capita expenditure Russian tourists. |
| Keywords: | commodities, employment, spatial analysis, tourism, trade |
| JEL: | F16 F51 J43 O13 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2022–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaaa:2022/08-en&r= |
| By: | Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble) |
| Abstract: | La Russie s'est engagée dans une « opération spéciale » contre l'Ukraine, « la petite Russie ». L'action militaire devait être rapidement conduite, encouragée par une part importante de citoyens ukrainiens. Au contraire, les combats militaires ont mis en évidence la résistance du peuple ukrainien, soutenu par l'aide en équipement militaires et les sanctions politico-économiques imposées à la Russie principalement par l'Union européenne et les Etats-Unis.. De fait, le conflit touche les intérêts de l'ensemble des pays du monde, avec les sanctions exercées sur le système monétaire et financier russe, sur l'exercice interrompue pour la Russie |
| Keywords: | War,economic war,economic sanctions,NATO,famine,Russia,Russie,Ukraine,Guerre,guerre économique,sanctions économiques,OTAN |
| Date: | 2022–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03703457&r= |
| By: | Carl Grekou; Emmanuel Hache; Frédéric Lantz; Olivier Massol; Valérie Mignon |
| Abstract: | La guerre en Ukraine provoque de multiples bouleversements, parmi lesquels la scène énergétique occupe une place de premier plan. L’Europe, très fortement dépendante des hydrocarbures russes, est tout particulièrement touchée. Ce Policy Brief analyse les enjeux et défis, pour l’Europe, du conflit russo-ukrainien sur les marchés gazier et pétrolier. Il dresse un panorama complet de la production et des échanges de gaz et de pétrole prévalant avant la guerre, puis met en évidence la dépendance des économies européennes aux hydrocarbures russes dont les impacts économiques se sont manifestés dès le début des hostilités. Il décrit de façon approfondie les différents canaux via lesquels le choc à la hausse des prix des énergies pourrait déclencher une spirale inflationniste à même de faire craindre le retour de la stagflation qui a miné les économies européennes dans les années 1970 et 1980. La devise européenne n’est pas épargnée par ce conflit et sa dépréciation participe à la transmission de la hausse des prix de l’énergie à l’inflation de la zone euro. Plusieurs pistes sont enfin explorées qui pourraient permettre aux pays européens de s’émanciper de la dépendance russe : (i) introduction d’une réelle concurrence sur le marché gazier et prévention d’éventuelles ruptures d’approvisionnement en réglementant les obligations de stockage, (ii) diversification des sources d’approvisionnement en hydrocarbures et (iii) accélération de la transition énergétique en dépit des obstacles de court terme. |
| JEL: | E3 E66 F51 L71 Q34 Q35 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepipb:2022-37&r= |
| By: | Janda, Karel; Sajdikova, Lucia |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a descriptive analysis of financing the European Green Deal. It is focused on the description of financial resources used for financing the Green Deal. The first part identifies public financing supporting the green economy, including incentive schemes, subsidies and taxes related supports. The second part identifies commercial funding available for climate transition, including green bonds and other climate and sustainability bonds and related loan schemes. While the first two chapters are covered on the level of the whole European Union, the last chapter is focused on the Czech Republic. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:261279&r= |
| By: | Juan Benavides; Ximena Cadena; Martha E. Delgado-Rojas; Helena García; María C. García |
| Abstract: | La hoja de ruta, a partir de un diagnóstico de barreras de mitigación y necesidades de adaptación, especifica las funciones institucionales que se deben llenar para escalar la financiación climática; propone medidas transversales, complementarias y para avanzar en financiación; y presenta la secuencia de medidas entre 2024 y 2030. Para ello, la hoja de ruta está organizada en dos grandes bloques de propuestas. El primer bloque es el Trípode Institucional e incluye potenciar la capacidad de orquestación (coordinación), crear una facilidad pública de estructuración de proyectos, e instituir un fondo de blended finance. El segundo bloque sobre Avances en Financiación, Transversales y Complementarios contempla robustecer el Sistema MRV, aplicar la Taxonomía Verde, fortalecer capacidades internas públicas, definir el modelo de financiación climática pública para mitigación y adaptación, promover instrumentos para reducir la brecha entre oferta y demanda de financiamiento climático, priorizar la construcción de carteras en segmentos de alto impacto en mitigación y adaptación y establecer condiciones habilitantes para segmentos de alta complejidad, y adoptar una política de gestión de riesgos de adaptación. ****** Abstract : The road map, based on an assessment of mitigation barriers and adaptation needs, specify the institutional functions that must be filled to scale-up climate finance; proposes actions to advance in financing, cross-sectional and complementary; and present the action sequence between 2024 and 2030. For this purpose, the road map is organized in two big sets of proposals. The first set is the Institutional Tripod (Trípode Institucional) and includes enhancing the orchestration (coordination) capacity, creating a public facility to structure projects, and instituting a blended finance fond. The second set is about actions to Advance in Financing, Cross-sectional and Complementary considers reinforcing the Sistema MRV, applying the Green Taxonomy, strengthening internal public capacities, defining the public climate finance model for mitigation and adaptation, promoting instruments to reduce the gap between supply and demand of climate finance, prioritizing the construction of portfolios in high-impact mitigation and adaptation segments and stablishing enabling conditions in high-complexity segments, and adopting a risk of adaptation management policy. |
| Keywords: | Cambio Climático, NDC, Mitigación, Adaptación, Financiamiento Climático |
| JEL: | Q01 Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2022–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000123:020332&r= |
| By: | Jeffrey J. Schott (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Megan Hogan (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | South Korean exports, especially carbon-intensive products like steel, are increasingly vulnerable to both the European Union's proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM)--set to begin on January 1, 2023--and the proposed Clean Competition Act (CCA) before the US Congress. Schott and Hogan caution that Korean exporters should not count on Korea's decade-old EU and US free trade agreements (FTAs), nor on the multilateral trading rules of the World Trade Organization (WTO), to protect them from new carbon-based import barriers in key foreign markets. The WTO and the FTAs have broad and loosely defined exemptions for environmental protection. Nor is Korea likely to be shielded by its own cap-and-trade emissions trading system (the K-ETS), because of extensive use of free allowances and large differences between EU and Korean carbon prices. While the threat the EU CBAM poses to Korean exports is imminent, passage of the CCA faces major legislative obstacles. But US imports of Korean steel and other carbon-intensive goods are still subject to climate-related duties at the US border under US unfair trade statutes. The US Department of Commerce has ruled that free allowances issued under the K-ETS (and EU ETS) are implicit subsidies that can be offset by countervailing duties. These charges are in addition to the harsh tariff-rate quotas on imported Korean steel applied under the "national security" authority of Section 232 of US trade law, which are more restrictive than measures imposed against European and other steel exporters. The authors suggest relaxing these US barriers, as they have been for shipments from Europe, in return for Korean participation in the nascent US-EU talks to establish a "Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminum." |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb22-10&r= |
| By: | Terrence Iverson |
| Abstract: | A two-tier climate club exploits the comparative advantage of large countries to mete out punishments through trade, while taking their capacity to resist punishment as a constraint. Countries outside the coalition price carbon at a fixed fraction of the average carbon price adopted within the coalition, or face tariffs. Coalition countries abate more since doing so induces matching abatement elsewhere. If the rate at which noncoalition countries match coalition abatement goes to one, equilibrium abatement approximates the globally efficient outcome even though the coalition only internalizes damages within its borders. Even with a low match rate, the arrangement drastically reduces aggregate abatement costs. In contrast to a single-tier climate club in which many stable coalitions are possible, the stable coalition in the calibrated model is unique and consists of the US and the EU. Global abatement achieved by the stable agreement is about 40 percent of the efficient level. |
| Keywords: | international environmental agreement, climate club, trade sanctions, retaliation, incomplete participation costs, country-size heterogeneity |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 Q58 F18 F53 H23 H41 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9831&r= |
| By: | Astrid Martínez |
| Abstract: | Ante la perspectiva de contratar nuevas Áreas Estratégicas Mineras de carbón, la ANM contrató con Fedesarrollo un estudio para analizar las características del mercado mundial y las principales dimensiones del análisis de competitividad del contrato minero del país. En este entregable, se analizan las variables que determinan los precios internacionales del carbón, en el corto y en el mediano plazo. |
| Keywords: | Carbón, Consumo del Carbón, Mercado del Carbón, Minería del Carbón, Precios Internacionales del Carbón, Política Pública, Coal, Coal Consumption, Coal Mining, International Coal Price, Public Policy |
| JEL: | L71 L72 L11 L16 |
| Date: | 2022–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:020230&r= |
| By: | Meier, Felix; Rickels, Wilfried; Quaas, Martin F.; Traeger, Christian |
| Abstract: | Net-zero climate policies foresee deployment of atmospheric carbon dioxide removal wit geo-logical, terrestrial, or marine carbon storage. While terrestrial and geological storage would be governed under the framework of national property rights, marine storage implies that carbon is transferred from one global common, the atmosphere, to another global common, the ocean, in particular if storage exceeds beyond coastal applications. This paper investigates the option of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and storage in different (marine) reservoir types in an analytic climate-economy model, and derives implications for optimal mitigation efforts and CDR deployment. We show that the introduction of CDR lowers net energy input and net emis-sions over the entire time path. Furthermore, CDR affects the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) via changes in total economic output but leaves the analytic structure of the SCC unchanged. In the first years after CDR becomes available the SCC is lower and in later years it is higher com-pared to a standard climate-economy model. Carbon dioxide emissions are first higher and then lower relative to a world without CDR. The paper provides the basis for the analysis of decentralized and potentially non-cooperative CDR policies. |
| Keywords: | carbon dioxide removal,climate change,integrated assessment,social cost of carbon,optimal carbon tax |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2227&r= |
| By: | Majeed, Fahd; Khanna, Madhu; Miao, Ruiqing |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:322278&r= |
| By: | Hesse, Andreas |
| Abstract: | Der vorliegende Beitrag präsentiert empirische Erkenntnisse zu Konsumentenwahrnehmungen von sogenannten Green-Marketing-Aktivitäten. Dabei wird bewusst ein Fokus auf Aktivitäten von etablierten Marken gelegt, die nach einer Ökologie-orientierten Auffrischung ihres Images streben. Dabei ringen sie nicht zuletzt aufgrund ihrer eigenen Geschichte und negativen ökologischen Reputation um Glaubwürdigkeit auf Seiten der Konsumenten. Der Verfasser bietet eine kompakte Einführung in Anwendungsfelder des Green Marketings, die über Werbemaßnahmen und Biolabel hinausgehen. Auf dem Fundament international vorliegender Erkenntnisse zeigt der Verfasser auf, dass die Erforschung von Konsumentenperspektiven ein Schlüssel zum Erfolg von Green Marketing ist. Die in der vorliegenden Schrift betrachteten Green-Marketing-Aktivitäten sind aussagestarke hervorstechende Beispiele aus verschiedenen Branchen, die in keiner Weise alle Green-Marketing-Aktivitäten im deutschen Markt repräsentieren sollen, die aber ausreichen, um verschiedene Konsumentenwahrnehmungen zu erkennen und zu verstehen. Der Autor nutzt dabei unter seiner Betreuung durchgeführte Primärdatenerhebungen von Studierenden, die auf qualitativen Methoden basieren und nun in einer Metaanalyse reinterpretiert werden. Die Synthese der Erkenntnisse wird in einen Praxisleitfaden transferiert, der Verantwortlichen von etablierten Marken Anregungen bei der Entwicklung und Durchführung von Green-Marketing-Aktivitäten bietet. |
| Keywords: | Green Marketing,Markentransfer,Demarketing,Nachhaltigkeitsmarketing,Greenwashing,qualitative Metaanalyse |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hkowis:362022&r= |
| By: | Luc Leruth (Tbilisi University); Adnan Mazarei (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Pierre Régibeau (European Commission); Luc Renneboog (Tilburg University) |
| Abstract: | In light of the transition away from fossil fuel-based energy, this paper highlights the importance of understanding who controls vital parts of the global supply chains of critical minerals and rare earth elements (REEs). Analysis of direct ownership does not reveal the real sources of control over the decisions of the company. To identify those sources, we use an index that measures the degree to which important shareholders can affect voting decisions. This analysis is not straightforward, because companies along the supply chain are not necessarily incorporated in the countries in which mining and production activities take place, and shareholders can exert influence through multiple layers of subsidiaries. Our analysis reveals that China's control over the global value chains involving critical minerals and REEs extends beyond what is commonly assumed. It also sheds light on environmental, social, and governance issues in the countries in which mining and/or production take place. The paper advocates increasing transparency regarding the sources of control to better assess and manage economic and geopolitical risks; enhancing recycling, to reduce dependency on foreign supply; avoiding protectionist and trade-reducing reactions; and encouraging research and development in order to speed up the adoption of technologies of substitution. |
| Keywords: | Ownership, voting power, corporate social responsibility, ESG, supply chain, recycling, rare earth elements, critical minerals, geopolitics |
| JEL: | G3 L1 L7 Q3 Q5 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp22-12&r= |
| By: | Yaya, OlaOluwa S; Akano, Rafiu O; Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. |
| Abstract: | Market efficiency and volatility persistence of five green investments, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, are investigated by employing a nonlinear I(d) framework with Chebyshev polynomial in time. Results show that green investments are more efficient before the crisis, and also volatility persists more, when compared to the period during the crisis, except in MSCI global green building index. Thus, green investors are likely to make arbitrage profits during the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Green investment; volatility persistence; COVID-19 pandemic |
| JEL: | C22 Q47 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113706&r= |
| By: | Yacouba COULIBALY; Alexandru MINEA; Patrick VILLIEU |
| Keywords: | , Resource-backed loans, Natural Resources, Natural resource rents, Public Debt, Economic Growth, Public & Private Investment, Propensity Score Matching |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:leo:wpaper:2937&r= |
| By: | Astrid Martínez; Marthe E. Delgado-Rojas |
| Abstract: | En este documento se analizan, en primer lugar, los aportes del sector petrolero y del Grupo Ecopetrol a la economía colombiana y a las finanzas de las entidades territoriales entre 2010 y 2020 y, en segundo lugar, la dinámica en el nivel de cada uno de los segmentos del Grupo (Exploración y producción de petróleo y gas, transporte por oleoductos y poliductos, refinación y petroquímica y comercialización), y la relación con sus grupos de interés a lo largo de los últimos diez anos. ****** Abstract : This paper analyzes Ecopetrol's contribution to the Colombian economy between 2011 and 2020; shows the macroeconomic contribution of the company in the past decade, the evolution of the business segments of its value chain, and the relationship of the Ecopetrol Group with its stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | Ecopetrol, Hidrocarburos, Transición Energética, Macroeconomía, Desarrollo Regional, Refinación y Petroquímica, ICP, Grupos de Interés |
| JEL: | Q40 E23 |
| Date: | 2022–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:020331&r= |
| By: | Liu, Yifei; Lu, Qinan; Du, Xiaodong |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:322146&r= |
| By: | Zhang, Shouyu; Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:322170&r= |
| By: | Brilé Anderson; Jorge Eduardo Patiño Quinchía; Rafael Prieto Curiel |
| Abstract: | The next few decades will bring an era of rapid urbanisation and unprecedented climate stress in African cities. Green spaces can boost the resilience of cities to heat waves, floods, landslides, and even coastal erosion, in addition, to enhancing sustainability by improving air quality, protecting biodiversity, and absorbing carbon. All of which can enhance well-being. Yet, data on the availability of green spaces in African urban agglomerations is scarce. This analysis fills the gap by combining new and novel data sources to estimate the availability of green spaces in 5 625 urban agglomerations with 10 000 inhabitants and above. The rest of the report then uses this novel dataset to first evaluate the dynamics between urbanisation and green spaces, and second, explore the potential of green spaces to boost the resilience and sustainability of cities in the future. The results show that as urban agglomerations become larger and more compact, green spaces disappear, exacerbating their vulnerability to climate change and deteriorating liveability. However, building taller buildings (i.e., growing vertically), offers a way for cities to grow whilst minimising loss of green space. Results show that more green space can boost sustainability by significantly lowering air pollution in African cities, which could be vital for public health in the future since outdoor air pollution is rising. The potential for green spaces to enhance resilience to climate events, like heat waves, depends on the location of green spaces throughout the city and the percentage of the population that lives close to a green space (i.e., within 300 metres). Green spaces may play a limited role in coping with heat waves in a city like Khartoum where only 3% of the population lives close to a green space, but could be a nature-based solution to heat waves in a city like Abuja, where 55% of the population can benefit from its cooling effects. Moving forward, local actors have clear evidence of the power of green spaces to build a sustainable and resilient future. Still, the report reveals that local actors need support from regional and national actors to realise the potential of green spaces. |
| Keywords: | Africa, Cities, Ecosystem-services, Green spaces, Nature-based solutions, Resilience, Sustainability |
| JEL: | Q53 Q54 Q56 Q57 R14 R15 R52 |
| Date: | 2022–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:swacaa:38-en&r= |
| By: | Skorup, Brent; Graboyes, Robert (Mercury Publication) |
| Abstract: | Abstract not available. |
| Date: | 2021–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajw:wpaper:11270&r= |
| By: | Gabriel Di Bella; Mr. Mark J Flanagan; Mr. Frederik G Toscani; Alex Pienkowski; Karim Foda; Martin Stuermer; Svitlana Maslova |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the implications of disruptions in Russian gas for Europe’s balances and economic output. Alternative sources could replace up to 70 percent of Russian gas, allowing Europe to avoid shortages during a temporary disruption of around 6 months. However, a longer full shut-off of Russian gas to the whole of Europe would likely interact with infrastructure bottlenecks to produce very high prices and significant shortages in some countries, with parts of Central and Eastern Europe most vulnerable. With natural gas an important input in production, the capacity of the economy would shrink. Our findings suggest that in the short term, the most vulnerable countries in Central and Eastern Europe — Hungary, Slovak Republic and Czechia — face a risk of shortages of as much as 40 percent of gas consumption and of gross domestic product shrinking by up to 6 percent. The effects on Austria, Germany and Italy would also be significant, but would depend on the exact nature of remaining bottlenecks at the time of the shutoff and consequently the ability of the market to adjust. Many other countries are unlikely to face such constraints and the impact on GDP would be moderate—possibly under 1 percent. Immediate policy priorities center on actions to mitigate impacts, including to eliminate constraints to a more integrated gas market via easing infrastructure bottlenecks, to accelerate efforts in defining and agreeing solidarity contributions, and to promote stronger pricing pass through and other measures to generate greater energy savings. National responses and RePowerEU contains many important measures to help address these challenges, but immediate coordinated action is called for, with specific opportunities in each of these areas. |
| Keywords: | Energy supply; natural gas; production output |
| Date: | 2022–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/145&r= |
| By: | Farrell, Niall; Humes, Harry |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp727&r= |
| By: | Tatsuya Abe |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the efficiency and distributional effects of fuel tax and feebate policies in the automobile market. I employ a model in which households make two-stage decisions on car ownership and utilization, and I estimate model parameters by combining micro-level data from a household survey and macro-level aggregate data on the Japanese new car market from 2006 through 2013. Interestingly, several system changes in the Japanese feebate created rich variations in vehicle prices across vehicles and over time during the sample period. I use such exogenous variation to overcome the vehicle price endogeneity associated with demand estimation. Counterfactual analyses show that the Japanese feebate results in a significant increase in social welfare while augmenting environmental externalities. In particular, the rebound effect induced by the feebate cancels out approximately 7% of the reduction in CO2 emissions that would originally have been attained by the improvement in fuel economy. In addition, I find that the fuel tax at the current tax rate in Japan is 1.7 times less costly than the product tax, an alternative feebate scheme considered in the counterfactuals. I also find that there is no difference in regressivity between the two policies in reducing negative environmental externalities by the same amount. |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1183&r= |
| By: | Golub, Alexander; Anda, Jon; Markandya, Anil; Brody, Michael; Celovic, Aldin; Kedaitiene, Angele |
| Abstract: | The way in which climate policy and climate risks are currently accounted for in financial and real investment decisions is inadequate. The paper demonstrates weaknesses in methods presently used and proposes an alternative that aims to bridge the duration gap between climate policy modeling and mitigation capital. The core tool is real options analysis combined with an Integrated Assessment Framework designed to capture the complex set of issues linking climate change, climate policy and the economy. The tools are meant for use in both capex decisions by corporations and portfolio decisions by investors. The tools will be a hedge against the risk of mitigation short squeeze occurring because investment is deferred beyond the 5 year or less timeframe of finance. |
| Keywords: | Financial Economics |
| Date: | 2022–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemwp:322792&r= |
| By: | Fan, Linlin; Zou, Eric; Feng, Jinglin; Wrenn, Douglas H. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, International Development, Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:322169&r= |
| By: | Janda, Karel; Sajdikova, Lucia |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a descriptive analysis of financing the European Green Deal. It is focused on the institutional framework of the European Green Deal, such as the European Investment Plan, which identifies allocations of funds in the EU Member States. The paper covers individual parts of European Just Transition Mechanism and briefly introduces an EU Taxonomy designed to help determine whether an economic activity can be classified as environmentally sustainable and contributing to the environmental objectives. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:261280&r= |
| By: | Henger, Ralph; Kaestner, Kathrin; Oberst, Christian; Sommer, Stephan |
| Abstract: | Am 4.4.2022 hat die Bundesregierung ein Konzept für ein Stufenmodell veröffentlicht, in dem die Höhe der Umlagefähigkeit der CO2-Kosten nach Gebäudeenergieklassen differenziert wird. Mieter werden demnach bei den (zusätzlichen) Heizkosten entlastet, wenn sie in energetisch schlechten Gebäuden wohnen. Vermieter erfahren einen größeren Anreiz, ihre Gebäude energetisch zu modernisieren. Der vorgesehene Nachweis über die Heizkostenabrechnung basiert jedoch auf Verbrauchswerten, was mitunter zu falschen Einstufungen führt und Mieter nicht zum sparsamen Heizen motiviert. Eine bessere Grundlage wären belastbare Energiebedarfswerte, wodurch der dringende Reformbedarf bei den Energieausweisen deutlich wird. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:432022&r= |
| By: | Ms. Wenjie Chen; Karlygash Zhunussova; Jean Chateau; Ms. Florence Jaumotte |
| Abstract: | This paper presents ways for China to achieve its climate goals while also attain high-quality growth—growth that is balanced, inclusive, and green. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model that is calibrated to China, multiple scenarios are considered that incorporate a sequence of layered policies: (i) frontloading mitigation with an earlier emissions peak, (ii) power market reforms, and (iii) economic rebalancing. The results highlight that these policies can significantly contribute to the success of the climate strategy overall, including by lowering the shadow price of carbon as well as the associated mitigation costs. Distribution analysis offers proposals to lessen the impact on vulnerable households. |
| Keywords: | Chinese economy; climate policy; carbon neutrality; rebalancing; Computable General Equilibrium model |
| Date: | 2022–07–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/142&r= |
| By: | Sharma, Bijay P.; Khanna, Madhu; Miao, Ruiqing |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Production Economics, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:322361&r= |
| By: | Galen Sher; Jing Zhou; Ting Lan |
| Abstract: | We analyze the potential impacts on the German economy of a complete and permanent shutoff of the remaining Russian natural gas supplies to Europe, accounting for the curtailment of flows through Nord Stream 1 that has already taken place. We find that such a scenario could lead to gas shortages of 9 percent of national consumption in the second half of 2022, 10 percent in 2023 and 4 percent in 2024, which would be worse in the winter months, and would likely fall on firms, given legal protections on households. We combine the effects of less gas on production with the consequent effects of reduced supply of intermediate goods and services to downstream firms, and with reduced economic activity due to rising uncertainty. Together, these three channels reduce German GDP relative to baseline levels by about 1.5 percent in 2022, 2.7 percent in 2023 and 0.4 percent in 2024, with no gains in subsequent years from deferred economic activity. The associated rise in wholesale gas prices could increase inflation by about 2 percentage points on average in 2022 and 2023. Our simulations suggest that the economic impacts can be reduced significantly by having households voluntarily share a small part of the burden, and by rationing gas supplies more to more gas-intensive and downstream firms. We also suggest other ways to enhance German energy security. |
| Keywords: | Energy supply; energy security; natural gas; embargo; rationing; fragmentation |
| Date: | 2022–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/144&r= |
| By: | Abman, Ryan; Lundberg, Clark; Szmurlo, Daniel |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Development |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:322511&r= |
| By: | Franco Mairuzzo (Centre for Competition Policy and School of Economics, University of East Anglia); Peter Ormosi (Centre for Competition Policy and Norwich Business School, University of East Anglia) |
| Abstract: | One of the central tenets of industrial organisation is that increasing/decreasing market concentration is likely to lead to increased/reduced markups. But does this affect every consumer to the same extent? Previous literature agrees that there can be significant price dispersion even in the case of homogeneous goods, which is at least partially due to the heterogeneity in how much consumers engage with the market. We link this heterogeneity to the impact of changing market concentration on markups. For this purpose, we employ a combination of 18 years of station-level motor fuel price data from Western Australia and a rich set of information on local market concentration. We summon a non-parametric causal forest approach to explore the heterogeneity in the effect of market exit/entry. The paper offers evidence of the distributional effect of changing market concentration. Areas with lower income experience a larger increase in petrol stations’ price margin as a result of market exit. On the other hand, entry does not benefit the same low-income areas with a larger reduction in the margin than in high-income areas. We argue that these findings are due to differences in how much consumers in different demographic groups engage with the market. Our findings give support to the argument that antitrust could help address inequality while staying true to its mission of promoting competition, provided that priorities are given to not only fixing supply-side problems but also to exploring demand-side remedies. |
| Keywords: | inequality, market concentration, income, consumer search, causal forests, petrol |
| Date: | 2022–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uea:ueaccp:2021_08&r= |
| By: | Víctor Saavedra; Fernando Carriazo; Juan-Fernando Junca; Rafael Puyana; Carlos-Felipe Reyes; María-Mónica Salazar |
| Abstract: | El libro describe el desarrollo normativo del ordenamiento territorial y ambiental del país y las principales líneas jurisprudenciales que se han desarrollado en los últimos 25 anos. Muestra el cambio en la densidad urbana de las principales ciudades desde inicios de la década de 1990, y la relación entre las tendencias de deforestación y los instrumentos de planeación territorial y ambiental en cinco municipios seleccionados. También, evalúa la implementación de los instrumentos de planeación territorial en las aglomeraciones urbanas de Cali, Bucaramanga, Medellín, Pereira, Barranquilla y Bogotá, y las brechas entre los objetivos planteados en los POT y las condiciones territoriales alcanzadas. Se resumen los principales aprendizajes globales sobre la relación entre sostenibilidad y planeación territorial. Con las conclusiones del ejercicio diagnóstico, se realiza un balance en un árbol de problemas del ordenamiento territorial y ambiental del país, complementado con entrevistas y talleres realizados en el marco del proyecto y un diagnóstico de la literatura existente. De igual manera, se presentan las principales líneas de recomendación y para finalizar muestra una aproximación a los impactos estimados de tener ciudades más densas sobre la emisión de Gases de Efecto Invernadero.****** Abstract: The book describes the regulatory development of the country's territorial and environmental planning and the main lines of jurisprudence that have been developed in the last 25 years. It also shows the change in the urban density of the main cities since the beginning of the 1990s, and the relationship between deforestation trends and territorial and environmental planning instruments in five selected municipalities. Also, it evaluates the implementation of territorial planning instruments in the urban agglomerations of Cali, Bucaramanga, Medellín, Pereira, Barranquilla and Bogotá, and the gaps between the objectives set out in the POTs and the territorial conditions achieved. The main global learnings about the relationship between sustainability and territorial planning are summarized. With the conclusions of the diagnostic exercise, a balance is made in a tree of problems of territorial and environmental planning of the country, complemented with interviews and workshops carried out within the framework of the project and a diagnosis of the existing literature. In the same way, the main lines of recommendation are presented and, finally, it shows an approximation to the estimated impacts of having denser cities on the emission of Greenhouse Gases. |
| Keywords: | Ordenamiento Territorial, Ordenamiento Ambiental, Huella Urbana, Densidad Urbana, Territorio, Planes de Ordenamiento, Deforestación, Aglomeraciones, Conmutación, Líneas Jurisprudenciales, Municipios, Gases de Efecto Invernadero, Emisiones de CO2, Territorial Planning, Environmental Planning, Urban Footprint, Urban Density, Territory, Territorial Planning Plans, Deforestation, Agglomerations, Commutation, Jurisprudential Lines, Municipalities, Greenhouse Gases, CO2 Emissions |
| JEL: | J10 Q10 Q20 Q40 Q51 Q52 Q53 Q54 Q56 Q57 Q58 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R20 R21 R21 R22 R23 R28 R31 R32 R33 R38 R41 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2022–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000516:020229&r= |
| By: | Pates, Nicholas J.; Ramsey, Steven M.; Mark, Tyler B. |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Productivity Analysis, Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:322188&r= |
| By: | Elisa Lanzi (OECD); Enrico Botta (OECD); Grace Alexander (OECD); Daniel Ostalé Valriberas (OECD); Zbigniew Klimont (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis); Gregor Kiesewetter (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis); Chris Heyes (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis); Rita Van Dingenen (Joint Research Centre - European Commission) |
| Abstract: | Air pollution is a global challenge to people’s health and has severe economic consequences. The region of Northeast Asia is no exception. Across most regions in Japan, and in the entire territories of Korea and China, annual average concentrations of fine particulate matter are above the guideline levels indicated by the World Health Organisation, indicating a risk to health. Policy action to tackle air pollution across the three countries, could prevent air pollution related illnesses and deaths, without affecting economic growth.This report presents projections for the impact of air pollution polices until 2050, with differing levels of regional coordination. Projections for current policies are compared with unilateral policy action, whereby each of the three countries introduce more stringent policies to tackle air pollution; alongside regionally coordinated policy action by all three countries; and policy action on a global level. The report presents the health, agricultural and economic impacts, and identifies considerable benefits from further coordination on air pollution policies, such as with regional and global policy action. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, air quality, best available techniques, computable general equilibrium models |
| JEL: | C68 Q53 Q52 |
| Date: | 2022–07–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:197-en&r= |
| By: | Thorstensen, Vera Helena; Arima Júnior, Mauro Kiithi |
| Abstract: | O objetivo do artigo é apresentar a situação do Brasil em matéria de política de eficiência energética, tomando-se como referência os padrões estabelecidos pela Organização para Cooperação e Desenvolvimento Econômico (OCDE). |
| Date: | 2021–08–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:550&r= |
| By: | Massoc, Elsa C. |
| Abstract: | The European Central Bank (ECB) recently proclaimed a more active role for itself in the fight against climate change. Did the European Parliament (EP) play a part in this regard, and if so what was it? To answer this question, this paper builds on a multi-method text analysis of original datasets compiling communications between the ECB and the EP across three accountability forums between 2014 and 2021. The paper shows that there has been discursive convergence between central bankers and parliamentarians concerning the role of the ECB in combatting climate change. It argues that this convergence has resulted from a pragmatic (yet precarious) adoption of a common repertoire1 between 'green' central bankers and parliamentarians who have favored a more active role for the ECB in the fight against climate change. The adoption of a common repertoire is pragmatic, in that it results from the strategic use of specific discursive elements that are ambitious enough to address their respective opponents and trigger political change, yet vague enough to allow both sets of actors to converge on them momentarily. It is also precarious in the sense that it involves discarding fundamental political tensions, which is hardly tenable in the long term. The paper shows that both organizational and politicization dynamics have been at work in the emergence of this pragmatic yet precarious bedfellowship between 'green' central bankers and parliamentarians. |
| Keywords: | accountability,politicization,European Central Bank,European Parliament,climate,price stability |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:lawfin:33&r= |
| By: | Paul J. J. Welfens (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)); Tian Xiong (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)); David Hanrahan (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)) |
| Abstract: | Climate change continues to challenge the global economy; particularly in industrialized countries, governments are increasingly coming under pressure to develop and implement adequate climate protection and innovation policies, as well as to co-operate in aligning them. At the same time, firms are also becoming more active in “greening†, by innovating in terms of greener products and processes in order to contribute to climate protection, stay at the technological frontier, and benefit from the increased environmental and sustainability awareness on the part of households, competitors and suppliers. Key areas of mutual concern to both policymakers and firms, therefore, include the determinants of green innovations – product or process – and how government can promote such innovation dynamics. Part of green innovations are covered by the European Union’s Community Innovation Survey (CIS), while the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also has data on green patenting dynamics. Using panel data on 35 European countries and covering the period of 2007-2018, including multiple waves of the CIS in a novel approach, we present an analysis on green innovation. The empirical analysis presented shows how key determinants of green innovation from the literature affect selected measures of green innovation. We find that the inward FDI stock intensity positively affects green process innovations (including manufacturing), while the ICT R&D Investment-GDP ratio has a negative impact on green innovativeness. As regards firms with both green process and green product innovations, GDP per capita is found to be a positive driver of innovativeness (excluding manufacturing) and is also a positive driver of green process innovations in firms with only green process innovations – but, paradoxically, is a negative driver of green product innovations in firms with only green product innovations. Regarding the rule of law, there is a positive impact on green innovations. The median age of the labor force has a negative impact on process innovations (excluding manufacturing), while the sign is positive for green process and product innovating firms (both including and excluding manufacturing). A green RCA variable is positively significant for green product innovating firms and green process and product innovators (including and excluding manufacturing). Our findings allow to suggest areas in which national and supranational policymakers should become more active to promote and foster green innovation in Europe. |
| Keywords: | Green innovation, product innovation, process innovation, ICT, Community Innovation Survey |
| JEL: | L86 Q55 O30 O31 |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei318&r= |
| By: | Pillai, Arya; Tovar Reaños, Miguel; Curtis, John |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp729&r= |
| By: | Henger, Ralph; Stockhausen, Maximilian |
| Abstract: | Galoppierende Energiepreise setzen private Haushalte zunehmend unter finanziellen Druck. Hierdurch steigt die Gefahr von Energiearmut, die insbesondere Haushalte betrifft, die mehr als 10 % ihres Haushaltsnettoeinkommens für Heizen, Warmwasser und Strom ausgeben. Neue Berechnungen zeigen, dass der Anteil der energiearmutsgefährdeten Haushalte, ohne Berücksichtigung staatlicher Hilfspakete, von 14,5 % im Jahr 2021 auf 25,2 % im Mai 2022 gestiegen ist. Aus diesem Grund sind die Maßnahmen der Bundesregierung in Form der Abschaffung der EEG-Umlage, der Energiepreispauschale und des Heizkostenzuschusses für Haushalte mit geringen Einkommen besonders wichtig. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:552022&r= |
| By: | Yaya, OlaOluwa S; Ogbonna, Ahamuefula; Vo, Xuan Vinh |
| Abstract: | This study examines how market volatility of five green investments (Standard & Poor’s - S&P [Green bond select index and Green bond index] and Morgan Stanley Capital International - MSCI [Global alternative energy index, Global pollution prevention index, and Global green building index]) respond to oil shocks; using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Mixed Data Sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) modelling framework. We employ Baumeister and Hamilton’s decomposed oil shocks: economic activity shocks, oil consumption demand shocks, oil inventory demand shocks, and oil supply shocks; each in their original levels, as well as their negatively and positively disaggregated levels. Our findings show homogeneous and heterogeneous responses of green investments volatility to variants of oil shocks. Asymmetry effect is also evidenced, given the differences between the estimated effect of positive and negative oil shocks on the volatility of green investments. |
| Keywords: | GARCH-MIDAS; green bond; oil shocks; asymmetry |
| JEL: | C1 C12 G15 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113707&r= |
| By: | Zubarev, Andrey; Kirillova, Maria |
| Abstract: | The relationship between the economies of various countries and their dependence on the world markets indicate that for econometric analysis of the impact of external shocks on a particular economy, it is necessary to use a model of the global economy. The aim of this paper is to build a global vector autoregression model (GVAR), including Russia as one of the regions, and to obtain the impact of some external economic shocks on Russian macroeconomic indicators. We build a model that includes 41 of the world's major economies, including Russia, and the oil market. The special features of our model are structural shifts in the dynamics of Russian output and the new specification of oil supply and oil demand. Impulse response functions are used to obtain quantitative estimates. In this paper, we analyze the reaction of outputs, oil production volumes and oil prices in response to the output shock of the United States. In response to the negative shock of output in the world's leading economy, outputs in the rest of the world declined for at least the first year after the shock. There was also a significant decline in oil prices and no significant change in oil production volumes in most countries. |
| Keywords: | global vector autoregression, GVAR, oil prices, GDP, oil production, impulse response function |
| JEL: | C32 E17 |
| Date: | 2022–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113762&r= |
| By: | Laetitia Balaresque (ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Gabriela de Carvalho Bezerra (EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales) |
| Abstract: | In Pima County, Arizona, where the consequences of global warming are particularly sensible (aridification, increasing temperatures, reduced precipitation), and where the solar potential is susbtantial, the deployment of solar energy has accelerated over the last years notably due to the county's historically politically progressive stance on environmental matters. Tucson Electric Power (TEP), the main utility of Pima County plays an equally major role as it has recently made a public commitment to the transition with the objective of increasing the share of renewables in its energy mix from 20% today to 70% by 2035. This process of energy transition is inscribed in a complex and multi-scale network of actors, comprising of public and private sectors. Who are the protagonists of this process and what are their perceptions on the transition? How does it fit into the local and regional socio-political context? |
| Abstract: | Dans le Pima County, en Arizona, où les conséquences du réchauffement climatique sont particulièrement sensibles (aridification, hausse des températures, baisse des précipitations), et où le potentiel solaire est extrêmement important, le déploiement de l'énergie solaire s'est accéléré ces dernières années, notamment grâce à la position historiquement progressive du comté sur les questions environnementales. Tucson Electric Power (TEP), le principal fournisseur d'électricité du comté de Pima, joue également un rôle majeur puisqu'il s'est récemment engagé publiquement dans la transition avec l'objectif de faire passer la part des énergies renouvelables dans sa production d'électricité de 20 % aujourd'hui à 70 % d'ici 2035. Le processus de transition énergétique s'inscrit dans un réseau d'acteurs complexe et multiscalaire, entre secteur public et secteur privé. Qui sont les protagonistes de ce processus et quelles sont leurs perceptions de la transition ? Comment prend-elle place dans le contexte sociopolitique local et régional ? |
| Keywords: | Pima County |
| Date: | 2022–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03716547&r= |
| By: | Salles, Andre Assis de; Maria Eduarda, Silva; Paulo, Teles |
| Abstract: | The stock market is a major component of the financial sector of any economy and it is particularly affected by crude oil price. Moreover, the financialization of the oil market in the last three decades increased its association with the financial markets. The main purpose of this paper is to uncover similarities among the economy of selected countries based on the association between their national stock markets and crude oil price. This is achieved by time series clustering of the conditional correlations between the national stock market index returns and crude oil price returns estimated from bivariate GARCH models. The clusters do not lead to a clear classification concerning the countries stage of development, emerging and developed, or the geographical region which can be explained by crude oil market financialization. |
| Keywords: | Crude Oil Prices; Stock Markets; GARCH models; Time Series Clustering. |
| JEL: | C58 F21 G15 Q43 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:113589&r= |
| By: | Imelda Imelda (IHEID, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva); Matthias Fripp (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Michael J. Roberts (University of Hawaii at Manoa) |
| Abstract: | Solar and wind power are now cheaper than fossil fuels but are intermittent. The extra supply-side variability implies growing benefits of using real-time retail pricing (RTP). We evaluate the potential gains of RTP using a model that jointly solves investment, supply, storage, and demand to obtain a chronologically detailed dynamic equilibrium for the island of Oahu, Hawai'i. Across a wide range of cost and demand assumptions, we find the gains from RTP in high-renewable systems to exceed those in a conventional fossil system by roughly 6 times to 12 times, markedly lowering the cost of renewable energy integration. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy; real-time pricing; storage; demand response; optimization |
| JEL: | Q41 Q42 Q53 |
| Date: | 2022–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp17-2022&r= |
| By: | Krebs, Tom |
| Abstract: | This policy report studies the effects of a sudden stop of natural gas imports from Russia on the German economy. The analysis focuses on the supply-side effects that arise when a gas shortage affects production in the gas-intensive manufacturing sectors, with a corresponding production disruption that propagates along the value chain and through the entire economy. In a baseline scenario, a hypothetical gas embargo implemented in May 2022 leads to a short-run decline in aggregate output between 3.2 percent and 8 percent of GDP. In an alternative scenario, in which Germany can easily replace Russian gas imports by alternative imports, the short-run decline in aggregate output following the embargo is between 1.2 percent and 3 percent of GDP. In addition to the supply-side effects, an embargo causes a reduction in output via the demand-side channel. According to recent simulation studies, the demand-side effects of an energy embargo (coal, oil, natural gas) reduce GDP between 2 percent and 4 percent in the short run. These results underscore the high degree of uncertainty regarding the economic consequences of a sudden stop of Russian gas imports in the short run. Finally, an immediate gas embargo also causes permanent economic damage and has significant social implications. In policy terms, the results show the need for the German government to act as swiftly as possible to ensure independence from Russian energy imports. In addition, Germany's future energy system needs to be more resilient to macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks. |
| Keywords: | energy,sanctions,network effects |
| JEL: | D2 E1 Q4 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:22021&r= |
| By: | Guire, William M.C.; Holtmaat, Ellen Alexandra; Prakash, Aseem |
| Abstract: | Do visible industrial accidents damage firms’ reputations and depress their stock market returns, and do these penalties spill over to other firms in the industry? On April 20, 2010, the Deepwater Horizon offshore oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico leased by BP exploded and sank, causing 11 deaths and the largest marine oil spill in US history. We examine the impact of this accident on BP’s reputation and stock market performance using data from YouGov’s BrandIndex and Capital IQ’s financial data for the period 2007–2017. We employ a synthetic control analysis to examine the extent and duration of these penalties. We find that in the aftermath of the Deepwater accident, BP’s reputation declined by approximately 50% relative to the synthetic control, and this decline persisted through the end of 2017. Yet, in terms of financial market returns, though the stock price dropped drastically in the first two months, we do not find a statistically significant decline in the stock market returns either in the mid-term (1–2 years) or the long term (2–7 years). In terms of spillover effects, we find no evidence of reputational damage or a decline in stock market returns for other oil and gas firms. These findings suggest that while environmental accidents invite swift and lasting reputational penalties, they might not depress the stock market performance in the long run. Moreover, the impact either on reputation or stock market returns does not necessarily spill over to other firms in the same industry. |
| Keywords: | Doc.Mobility grant P1GEP1_181399 for EAH |
| JEL: | R14 J01 F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2022–06–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:115560&r= |
| By: | Astrid Martínez Ortiz; Martha Elena Delgado |
| Abstract: | El estudio analiza los retos del Grupo Ecopetrol en los próximos diez anos, en el marco de la transición energética y los retos macroeconómicos que enfrentará el país en ese contexto.******Abstract: The study analizes the challenges that Ecopetrol will go through in the next ten years , in the framework of energy transition and the macroeconomic challenges that the country will fase in that context. |
| Keywords: | Hidrocarburos, Ecopetrol, Transición Energética, Macroeconomía, Oil Industry, Ecopetrol, Energy Transition, Macroeconomy |
| JEL: | Q40 D23 |
| Date: | 2021–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000124:020227&r= |
| By: | Chlond, Bettina; Goeschl, Timo; Kesternich, Martin |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the literature on how program design affects program performance among vulnerable groups by studying the effects of varying the subsidy level and program procedures in an energy efficiency assistance program targeting low-income households in Germany. Eligible households receive, upon enrolment, a voucher to subsidize refrigerator replacement. The voucher is redeemed against cash following replacement. Observing the decisions of 77,305 eligible households, our RDD design exploits two quasi-exogenous temporal discontinuities in voucher value and program procedures. We find that a switch from automatic to elective enrolment and more rigid voucher terms reduces the number of vouchers in circulation, but raises the replacement rate among eligible households, the key performance metric, by 4 to 10 percentage points, consistent with psychological theories of goal setting and time management. A subsidy increase of 50 Euro raises replacement rates by 9 to 16 percentage points. The effect of procedural changes is equivalent to an additional 34 Euro in subsidy. Back-of-the-envelope calculations highlight that low-cost changes in procedures that target the behavioral responses of low-income households represent plausible areas of unexploited economies in program design and merit systematic investigation. |
| Keywords: | Public behavioral economics,energy efficiency,low-income households,durable replacement,energy poverty,technology adoption |
| JEL: | C25 D15 H23 O33 Q20 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:22020&r= |
| By: | Kafle, Kashi; Balasubramanya, Soumya; Stifel, David |
| Keywords: | International Development, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:322256&r= |
| By: | Emanuel Kohlscheen; Richhild Moessner |
| Abstract: | We analyse the drivers of European Power Exchange (EPEX) retail electricity prices between 2012 and early 2022 using machine learning. The agnostic random forest approach that we use is able to reduce in-sample root mean square errors (RMSEs) by around 50% when compared to a standard linear least square model − indicating that non-linearities and interaction effects are key in retail electricity markets. Out-of-sample prediction errors using machine learning are (slightly) lower than even in-sample least square errors using a least square model. The effects of efforts to limit power consumption and green the energy matrix on retail electricity prices are first order. CO2 permit prices strongly impact electricity prices, as do the prices of source energy commodities. And carbon permit prices’ impact has clearly increased post-2021 (particularly for baseload prices). Among energy sources, natural gas has the largest effect on electricity prices. Importantly, the role of wind energy feed-in has slowly risen over time, and its impact is now roughly on par with that of coal. |
| Keywords: | carbon permit, CO2 emissions, commodities, electricity market, energy, EPEX, machine learning, natural gas, oil, wind energy |
| JEL: | C54 D40 L70 Q02 Q20 Q40 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9807&r= |