nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2022‒05‒16
forty-one papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. How far is China from hitting its climate targets? An overview of China's energy sector By Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Kerola, Eeva; Nuutilainen, Riikka; Parviainen, Seija; Solanko, Laura
  2. What Determines Effectiveness of Renewable Energy Standards? General Equilibrium Analytical Model and Empirical Analysis By Don Fullerton; Chi L. Ta
  3. Effects of Carbon Pricing on Inflation By Richhild Moessner
  4. Russia's oil & gas sector in global energy transition By Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura
  5. Investigating the impact of smart energy management system on the residential electricity consumption in Austria By Mascherbauer, Philipp; Kranzl, Lukas; Yu, Songmin; Haupt, Thomas
  6. Capacity investments in a competitive energy market By Lukas Block; Bastian Westbrock
  7. Oil Price Shocks and Green Bonds: A Longitudinal Multilevel Model By Azhgaliyeva, Dina; Mishra, Ranjeeta; Kapsalyamova, Zhanna
  8. Petroleum Industry Diversification in the Middle East and Its Policy Implications for Korea in the Era of Energy Transition By Lee, Kwon Hyung; Son, Sung Hyun; Jang, Yunhee; Ryou, Kwangho; Lee, Dawoon
  9. Cutting Putin’s Energy Rent: 'Smart Sanctioning' Russian Oil and Gas By Ricardo Hausmann; Agata Łoskot-Strachota; Axel Ockenfels; Ulrich Schetter; Simone Tagliapietra; Guntram Wolff; Georg Zachmann
  10. European industry responds to high energy prices: The case of German ammonia production By Stiewe, Clemens; Ruhnau, Oliver; Hirth, Lion
  11. Policy Sequencing Towards Carbon Pricing - Empirical Evidence From G20 Economies and Other Major Emitters By Mr. Adil Mohommad; Gregor Schwerhoff; Manuel Linsenmeier
  12. Using the Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) Planning Toolbox to Understand Market Growth in California By Davis, Adam W; Tal, Gil
  13. Clean Energy Access: Gender Disparity, Health, and Labour Supply By Anjali P. Verma; Imelda
  14. The role of Venture Capital and Governments in Clean Energy: Lessons from the First Cleantech Bubble By Matthias van den Heuvel; David Popp
  15. Mountains of Evidence: The Effects of Abnormal Air Pollution on Crime By Birzhan Batkeyev; David R. DeRemer
  16. Evaluation of the Economics of Light-Duty Battery-Electric and Fuel Cell Passenger Cars, SUVs, and Trucks: Methods, Issues, and Infrastructure By Burke, Andrew; Sinha, Anish; Fulton, Lewis
  17. CBAM! - Assessing potential costs of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism for emerging economies By Simola, Heli
  18. Air Pollution and the Labor Market: Evidence from Wildfire Smoke By Mark Borgschulte; David Molitor; Eric Zou
  19. Modeling Expected Air Quality Impacts of Oregon’s Proposed Expanded Clean Fuels Program By Murphy, Colin; Kleeman, Michael J.; Wang, Guihua; Li, Yiting
  20. Air Quality Impacts of Proposed Changes to Oregon’s Clean Fuels By Murphy, Colin; Kleeman, Michael J.; Wang, Guihua; Li, Yiting
  21. Can unconventional monetary policy contribute to climate action? By Alice Eliet-Doillet; Andrea Maino
  22. The Central Valley Initiative By Rodier, Caroline; Harold, Brian; Zhang, Yunwan; Carlos Sanchez, Juan C; Harrison, Makenna; Francisco, Jerel
  23. Understanding inter-system interactions and their impacts. Conference track: Methodologies for transitions research By Breitschopf, Barbara; Köhler, Jonathan Hugh; Wydra, Sven; Grimm, Anna; Billerbeck, Anna
  24. Climate Regulatory Risks and Corporate Bonds By Lee Seltzer; Laura Starks; Qifei Zhu
  25. Performance of the Chinese energy market in times of Russian military interventions By Tapia, Pablo; Pastén, Boris; Sepulveda Velasquez, Jorge
  26. Urban Resilience and its Impact on Electricity Provision in Karachi, Islamabad and Peshawar By Afia Malik; Idrees Khawaja
  27. Climate change affectedness and innovation in German firms By Horbach, Jens; Rammer, Christian
  28. Inflation expectations and climate concern By Meinerding, Christoph; Poinelli, Andrea; Schüler, Yves
  29. European investment Bank loan appraisal, the EU climate bank ? By Ebeling Antoine
  30. Impact of Debt Structure, State Ownership on Business Performance in Energy Enterprises: A Case Study in Vietnam By Hung, Dang Ngoc
  31. Monthly Report No. 10/2021 By Andrei V. Belyi; Michael Landesmann; Sebastian Leitner; Isilda Mara
  32. The expected returns of ESG excluded stocks. The case of exclusions from Norway's Oil Fund By Berle, Erika; He, Wanwei; Odegaard, Bernt Arne
  33. Strengthening capacity for climate action in developing countries: Overview and recommendations By Juan Casado-Asensio; Dominique Blaquier; Jens Sedemund
  34. How impact evaluation methods influence the outcomes of development projects? Evidence from a meta-analysis on decentralized solar nano projects By Fatoumata Nankoto Cissé
  35. A Dual Generalized Long Memory Modelling for Forecasting Electricity Spot Price: Neural Network and Wavelet Estimate By Souhir Ben Amor; Heni Boubaker; Lotfi Belkacem
  36. Impact of GHG Reporting Quality on Investors’ Valuations in a Regulatory Context: The Case of SBF 120 Companies By Emmanuelle Fromont; Thi Le Hoa Vo; Gulliver Lux
  37. Jobmotor Klimaschutz – Beschäftigungseffekte durch ambitionierten Klimaschutz By Lisa Becker; Dr. Christian Lutz
  38. Survey on the contribution of ICT to the environmental sustainability of actions of EU enterprises By Daan DB Bijwaard; Teodora TG Gyupchanova; Allison AD Dunne; Julien Gosse; Charles Hoffreumon; Nicolas van Zeebroeck
  39. Markthochlaufszenarien für Elektrofahrzeuge: Rückblick und Ausblick bis 2030 By Gnann, Till; Speth, Daniel; Plötz, Patrick; Wietschel, Martin; Krail, Michael
  40. Berechnung der Letztverbraucherausgaben im Rahmen der energiewirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung – Aktualisierung der Ergebnisse für die Bereiche Strom, Wärme und Verkehr bis 2019 By Lisa Becker; Philip Ulrich; Dr. Ulrike Lehr; Gerd Ahlert
  41. Cliometrics of Climate Change By Olivier Damette; Claude Diebolt; Stephane Goutte; Umberto Triacca

  1. By: Kaaresvirta, Juuso; Kerola, Eeva; Nuutilainen, Riikka; Parviainen, Seija; Solanko, Laura
    Abstract: China is by far the world's largest consumer of primary energy. Its vast energy demands are a leading issue for global energy use, driving pollution trends and prices on commodity markets. Despite huge increases in non-fossil capacity from nuclear and renewables, China still burns tremendous amounts of coal to meet its primary energy needs. Domestic energy consumption has risen faster than energy production, and thereby increased China's dependence on energy imports. China is the world's largest polluter, so any effort on the country's part towards cleaner energy has major implications for global decarbonisation efforts. This overview comprises ten briefs on China's energy sector. They cover recent developments in energy use and the shifting dynamics in primary power generation aimed at meeting China's energy needs.
    Keywords: China,energy,oil,natural gas,coal,electricity,renewable energy,production,investment,foreign trade,emissions
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Don Fullerton; Chi L. Ta
    Abstract: Our new analytical general equilibrium model is used to study effects of tightening state Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) on electricity price, CO2 emissions, fossil fuel electricity generation, and two kinds of renewable generation. We show how those outcomes depend on key state characteristics such as endowments of potential intermittent and non-intermittent (“dispatchable”) renewable sources and the degree of intermittency. Our three extensions investigate key assumptions. We prove theorems and derive empirical hypotheses about what state characteristics makes RPS programs more effective. Using U.S. state-level data from 1990 to 2015, we find the data are consistent with these hypotheses.
    Keywords: renewable portfolio standards, emissions, electricity generation, renewable power
    JEL: H21 H23 Q58
    Date: 2022
  3. By: Richhild Moessner
    Abstract: We study how carbon pricing has affected inflation ex-post, using dynamic panel estimation of New-Keynesian Phillips curves for 35 OECD economies from 1995 to 2020. As carbon pricing we consider prices of emissions trading systems (ETS) and carbon taxes. We find that an increase in prices of ETS by $10 per ton of CO2 equivalents increases energy CPI inflation by 0.8 percentage points (pp), and headline inflation by 0.08pp, but has no significant effects on food and core CPI inflation. We also find that an increase in carbon taxes by $10 per ton of CO2 equivalents increases food CPI inflation by 0.1pp, but has no significant effects on energy CPI inflation, headline and core CPI inflation.
    Keywords: climate policies, carbon tax, carbon emission trading system, climate change, inflation
    JEL: E31 E52 E58 Q48 Q58
    Date: 2022
  4. By: Simola, Heli; Solanko, Laura
    Abstract: The past two decades have witnessed a major transformation of global energy markets. While growth in energy demand now comes from emerging economies, and technologies critical to oil and natural gas production have seen dramatic advances, the biggest changes in global energy markets lie ahead. For countries to meet their ambitious climate goals, demand for conventional energy sources must fall significantly and be accompanied by a massive shift in investment to renewable energy sources. Such changes can have major implications for the Russian economy, which depends heavily on oil and gas. This brief provides an overview of the latest trends in Russia's oil & gas sector in the context of evolving global energy markets.
    Keywords: Russia,oil,natural gas,energy transition
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Mascherbauer, Philipp; Kranzl, Lukas; Yu, Songmin; Haupt, Thomas
    Abstract: This paper addresses the following question: How can smart energy management system (SEMS) influence the residential electricity consumption at both individual household and national level? First, we developed an hourly optimization model for individual households. The energy cost of an individual household is minimized under given assumptions on outside temperature, radiation, (dynamic) electricity price, and feed-in tariff. By comparing the optimization to the reference scenario, we show the impact of SEMS on grid-electricity consumption and photovoltaic (PV) selfconsumption at the individual household level. Second, to aggregate the results to the national level, we constructed a detailed building stock taking Austria as an example. By aggregating the results of 2112 representative households, we investigate the impact of SEMS in the residential building stock on the national electricity system. As a result, we found that for individual singlefamily-houses (SFHs) with PV (no battery) and heat pump adoption, SEMS can significantly reduce the grid-electricity consumption up to 40.7% for a well-insulated building. At the national level we found that, for the buildings with 5 kWp PV but without hot water tank or battery storage, SEMS can still reduce the grid-electricity consumption by 7.4% by using the building mass as thermal storage.
    Keywords: demand-side management,PV,heat pump,energy storage,optimization,building stock
    Date: 2022
  6. By: Lukas Block (Paderborn University); Bastian Westbrock (Hamburg University)
    Abstract: We study the abilities of competitive markets to produce sufficient energy capacities to meet a fixed energy demand. Renewable energy producers with stochastic outputs and no variable costs compete against conventional energy producers with deterministic, pollutant outputs and increasing marginal costs. We find that either market forces are strong enough to serve the entire demand, or they are too weak such that the market fails and nothing is produced. This crucially depends on the relative cost of renewable energy investments, such that relatively cheap renewable energy causes the market to fail. Welfare analyses show that with increasing levels of conventional energy pollution the ability of the market to produce an efficient outcome further declines. As a policy implication, our findings refute the use of a strategic reserve as a blackout backstop solution. Instead, a capacity mechanism consisting of a tax-and-subsidy scheme can align the market outcome with the efficient solution for all pollution levels and relative costs of renewable energy capacities.
    Keywords: Renewable versus conventional energy, capacity mechanisms, strategic reserves, capacity payments
    JEL: D41 L11 Q48
    Date: 2022–04
  7. By: Azhgaliyeva, Dina (Asian Development Bank Institute); Mishra, Ranjeeta (Asian Development Bank Institute); Kapsalyamova, Zhanna (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: We investigate the impacts of crude oil price shocks on financial markets by examining the effect of oil price shocks on green bond issuance. Green bond issuance has been growing fast over the past several years; despite this, the share of green bonds in the total bonds remains small. Using the multilevel longitudinal random intercept and random coefficient models, we investigate the effect of disentangled crude oil price shocks on green bond issuance in the private sector. Unlike the general bond market, our empirical analysis finds that oil supply shocks affect green bond issuance positively. We also find that the public issuance of sovereign green bonds tends to promote the private issuance of green bonds. Our results are robust and hold when using alternative models; they also survive a range of robustness tests.
    Keywords: green bonds; sovereign bonds; green finance; oil shock; policy support; crude oil price
    JEL: G23 Q28 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2021–07
    Abstract: The GCC oil exporters including Saudi Arabia and the UAE are under strong pressure to prepare for decreasing global oil demand in the era of energy transition and carbon neutrality. To overcome these challenges, they need to diversify their industrial structure and develop low carbon technologies such as green hydrogen and CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage). This research is aimed to examine various mid-to-long term plans, industrial policies, and business cooperation cases to promote diversification in the Middle Eastern petroleum industry, suggesting policy proposals for cooperation between Korea and the Middle East and business opportunities in the region.
    Keywords: Middle East; Petroleum Industry; Korea; Energy Transition
    Date: 2022–04–06
  9. By: Ricardo Hausmann (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Agata Łoskot-Strachota; Axel Ockenfels; Ulrich Schetter (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Simone Tagliapietra; Guntram Wolff; Georg Zachmann
    Abstract: Following the Russian aggression against Ukraine, major sanctions have been imposed by Western countries, most notably with the aim of limiting Russia’s access to hard international currency. However, Russia remains the world’s first exporter of oil and gas, and at current energy prices this provides large hard currency revenues. As the war continues, European governments are under increased pressure to scale-up their energy sanctions, following measures taken by the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia. This piece argues that given the inelasticity of Russia’s oil and gas supply, for Europe the most efficient way to sanction Russian energy would not be an embargo, but the introduction of an import tariff that can be used flexibly to control the degree of economic pressure on Russia.
    Keywords: Ukraine War, Russia
    Date: 2022–04
  10. By: Stiewe, Clemens; Ruhnau, Oliver; Hirth, Lion
    Abstract: Since September 2021, European natural gas prices are at record-high levels. On average, they have been six to seven times higher than pre-pandemic price levels. While the post-pandemic recovery of global natural gas demand has driven up prices around the world, the most important drivers for European gas prices were Russia’s less-than-usual supply since mid-2021 and its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Western efforts to abandon Russian gas imports altogether mean that high natural gas prices are likely to stay for longer. While high gas prices may be the new normal, there is uncertainty about the economic reaction to this shock. How do energy-intensive industries react? Do global value chains collapse if intermediate goods produced in Europe become uneconomic because of high energy prices? Our preliminary analysis shows that industry response to has in fact been visible from the very onset of the energy crisis. A closer look at German fertilizer production, which heavily relies on natural gas as fuel and feedstock to produce ammonia as an intermediate product, reveals that increased ammonia imports have allowed domestic fertilizer production to remain remarkably stable.
    Keywords: Energy demand,Demand response,European energy crisis,Natural gas
    JEL: Q41
    Date: 2022
  11. By: Mr. Adil Mohommad; Gregor Schwerhoff; Manuel Linsenmeier
    Abstract: Carbon pricing is considered the most efficient policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but it has also been conjectured that other policies need to be implemented first to remove certain economic and political barriers to stringent climate policy. Here, we examine empirical evidence on the the sequence of policy adoption and climate policy portfolios of G20 economies and other major emitters that eventually implemented a national carbon price. We find that all countries adopted carbon pricing late in their instrument sequence after the adoption of (almost) all other instrument types. Furthermore, we find that countries that adopted carbon pricing in a given year had significantly larger climate policy portfolios than those that did not. In the last part of the paper, we examine heterogeneity among countries that eventually adopted a carbon price. We find large variation in the size of policy portfolios of adopters of carbon pricing, with more recent adopters appearing to have introduced carbon pricing with smaller portfolios. Furthermore, countries that adopted carbon pricing with larger policy portfolios tended to implement a higher carbon price. Overall, our results thus suggest that policy sequencing played an important role in climate policy, specifically the adoption of carbon pricing, over the last 20 years.
    Keywords: carbon pricing, climate policies, policy sequencing, political economy
    Date: 2022–04–01
  12. By: Davis, Adam W; Tal, Gil
    Abstract: Accurately predicting the spatial distribution and charging demand of future electric vehicles is vital to directing investment in charging infrastructure and planning policy interventions. To date, this expansion has been heavily concentrated in wealthy cities and suburbs, among commuters, and among households able to charge their vehicles at home. The expansion of EV ownership will include both changes in where the vehicles are owned as well as how they are used and charged. This paper demonstrates methods to predict where the expansion of electric vehicle ownership is likeliest to occur under current market characteristics and allow for testing of scenarios of future characteristics. These methods are demonstrated with an analysis of California, using a scenario of 4 million battery electric vehicles and 1 million plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, to match the state’s goal of 5 million zero-emission vehicles by 2030. These projections are combined with a model for charging behavior to generate scenarios of demand for charging away from home under various fleet characteristics and identify areas of the state with the greatest need for infrastructure investment.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, electric vehicle, charging, charging infrastructure
    Date: 2022–04–01
  13. By: Anjali P. Verma (The University of Texas at Austin); Imelda (IHEID, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva)
    Abstract: Women bear a disproportionate share of the health and time burden associated with lack of access to modern energy. We study the impact of clean energy access on adult health and labour supply outcomes by exploiting a nationwide rollout of a clean cooking fuel program in Indonesia. We find that access to clean cooking fuel led to an improvement in women's health and an increase in their work hours. We also find an increase in men's work hours and in their propensity to have an additional job, primarily in those households where women accrued the largest program benefits.
    Keywords: gender inequality; energy access; health; labour supply; Indonesia
    JEL: H51 I15 I18 J22 O13 Q48 Q53
    Date: 2022–05–06
  14. By: Matthias van den Heuvel; David Popp
    Abstract: After a boom and bust cycle in the early 2010s, venture capital (VC) investments are, once again, flowing towards green businesses. In this paper, we use Crunchbase data on 150,000 US startups founded between 2000 and 2020 to better understand why VC initially did not prove successful in funding new clean energy technologies. Both lackluster demand and a lower potential for outsized returns make clean energy firms less attractive to VC than startups in ICT or biotech. However, we find no clear evidence that characteristics such as high-capital intensity or long development timeframe are behind the lack of success of VC in clean energy. In addition, our results show that while public sector investments can help attract VC investment, the ultimate success rate of firms receiving public funding remains small. Thus, stimulating demand will have a greater impact on clean energy innovation than investing in startups that will then struggle through the “valley of death”. Rather than investing themselves in startups bound to struggle through the valleys of death, governments wishing to support clean energy startups can first implement demand-side policies that make investing in clean energy more viable.
    JEL: G24 Q40 Q48 Q55
    Date: 2022–04
  15. By: Birzhan Batkeyev (International School of Economics, Kazakh-British Technical University); David R. DeRemer (Nazarbayev University, Graduate School of Business)
    Abstract: This is the first study to assess that air pollution increases criminal activity in a city with air pollution regularly exceeding international safety standards. For winter in Almaty, Kazakhstan, we collect data on crime and PM2.5 pollution across city districts over 8-hour intervals. Our identification strategy employs distinctive features of Almaty's geography: the proximity of some districts to mountain winds and the high frequency of temperature inversions. Using a PPML control function approach, we estimate a PM2.5 elasticity of the expected crime rate equal to 0.38, more than four times as large as elasticity estimates from studies of cleaner cities. Our data and empirical setting also facilitate our identification of air pollution effects on particular crime types. We find that air pollution increases robbery and high-stakes property crime more than low-stakes property crime. These new results support the theory that air pollution induces disregard for criminal consequences and bring further evidence that air pollution induces aggression.
    Keywords: Abnormal Air Pollution, PM2.5, Criminal Activity
    JEL: K42 Q50 Q53
    Date: 2022–04
  16. By: Burke, Andrew; Sinha, Anish; Fulton, Lewis
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2022–04–29
  17. By: Simola, Heli
    Abstract: With the EU adopting more ambitious emission reduction targets this year, the European Commission in July published a proposal on measures for adjusting EU climate policy. Measures include a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) that imposes a price on emissions embodied in products imported to the EU. In this policy note, we review the main lines of the CBAM proposal and discuss its potential economic effects on China, India, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine – the EU's largest import sources for products subject to CBAM. We calculate illustrative estimates for the potential cost effectsof several specifications of the CBAM for these countries and compare them against earlier estimates. We also discuss the potential aggregate economic effects of the CBAM for these economies based on earlier literature. Despite considerable variation across countries and sectors, our analysis suggests that the aggregate economic effects of the CBAM would be limited for most exporting countries.
    Keywords: carbon border adjustment mechanism,climate policy,international trade,emerging economies
    Date: 2021
  18. By: Mark Borgschulte; David Molitor; Eric Zou
    Abstract: We study how air pollution impacts the U.S. labor market by analyzing effects of drifting wildfire smoke that can affect populations far from the fires themselves. We link satellite smoke plumes with labor market outcomes to estimate that an additional day of smoke exposure reduces quarterly earnings by about 0.1 percent. Extensive margin responses, including employment reductions and labor force exits, can explain 13 percent of the overall earnings losses. The implied welfare cost of lost earnings due to air pollution exposure is on par with standard valuations of the mortality burden. The findings suggest that labor market channels warrant greater consideration in policy responses to air pollution.
    JEL: J21 Q51 Q52 Q53 Q54
    Date: 2022–04
  19. By: Murphy, Colin; Kleeman, Michael J.; Wang, Guihua; Li, Yiting
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2022–04–27
  20. By: Murphy, Colin; Kleeman, Michael J.; Wang, Guihua; Li, Yiting
    Keywords: Engineering
    Date: 2022–04–27
  21. By: Alice Eliet-Doillet (Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne); Andrea Maino (University of Geneva)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of central banks when supporting policies aiming at greening the financial system. The July 2021 Monetary Policy Strategy Review of the European Central Bank unexpectedly dedicated a whole workstream to climate change. The announcement had a significant effect on the pricing and issuance of green bonds in the Eurozone. We find that ECB eligible green bonds’ Yield-to-Maturity decreased following the announcement when compared to equivalent conventional bonds. Firms incorporated in the Eurozone reacted to the announcement by increasing the amount of green bond issued, for both the segments of ECB-eligible and non-ECB-eligible green bonds.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Central Banks, Green Bonds, Carbon Emissions, Quantitative Easing, Monetary Policy, ESG
    JEL: Q58 E52 E58 G12
    Date: 2022–04
  22. By: Rodier, Caroline; Harold, Brian; Zhang, Yunwan; Carlos Sanchez, Juan C; Harrison, Makenna; Francisco, Jerel
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, electric vehicles, vehicle sharing, social equity, rural areas, rural transportation, pilot studies, low income groups
    Date: 2022–04–01
  23. By: Breitschopf, Barbara; Köhler, Jonathan Hugh; Wydra, Sven; Grimm, Anna; Billerbeck, Anna
    Abstract: [Introduction] Changes in technologies, processes, behaviour and relationships are an essential part of transitions of socio-technical systems. They are induced by 'impulses' within and outside the system. There is a large body of literature discussing interactions within socio-technical systems, between niches and regimes and possibly landscapes (e.g. Geels 2007) or between elements of a system oriented towards specific purposes (Borrás and Edler 2015). However, interactions occur not only within a certain system, but between systems and in different forms and intensities of exchange between the components of two or several systems. Some examples of system interactions are the food-water-energy nexus, smart energy as a resulting field from electricity and ICT, functional foods as nexus between food and pharmaceuticals, or interlinkages between electricity, transport and heating (Hiteva and Watson 2019; Hoolohan et al. 2019, Papachristos et al. 2013, Rosenbloom 2019). The interactions between systems may have significant impact on related transformations, e.g. by accelerating changing pro-cesses, but these interactions could also have hampering and conflicting. Hence, multi relationships and dynamics have to be taken into account carefully in transitions research. However, Rosenbloom states that 'little literature is focussing on interactions between sys-tems'. We agree and think there is still a need to further explore where and how these interactions take place, what characteristics and features of interactions between socio-technical systems exists and what the implications for the system and its transition are. Thus, we strive to elaborate a typol-ogy for interactions between socio-technical systems and identify their impacts on innovations and transition of systems. Therefore, we review how interactions between two or more socio-technical systems are discussed in the transition literature, set up a systematic framework to identify interactions between systems and try to understand how interactions impact socio-technical systems and their transitions. Coming from energy policy and sustainability research, we place our research lens on the energy transition.
    Date: 2022
  24. By: Lee Seltzer; Laura Starks; Qifei Zhu
    Abstract: Investor concerns about climate and other environmental regulatory risks suggest that these risks should affect corporate bond risk assessment and pricing. We test this hypothesis and find that firms with poor environmental profiles or high carbon footprints tend to have lower credit ratings and higher yield spreads, particularly when their facilities are located in states with stricter regulatory enforcement. Using the Paris Agreement as a shock to expected climate risk regulations, we provide evidence that climate regulatory risks causally affect bond credit ratings and yield spreads. Accordingly, the composition of institutional ownership also changes after the Agreement.
    Keywords: climate risk; regulatory risk; fixed income
    JEL: G38 G24 G00
    Date: 2022–04–01
  25. By: Tapia, Pablo; Pastén, Boris; Sepulveda Velasquez, Jorge
    Abstract: China is the world’s largest importer and Russia one of its main exporters, particularly of energy. Consequently, foreign military activities by Russia could influence the performance of China’s energy market. The research objective is to present evidence on the effects of the 2002-2022 Russian military interventions on the returns of the Chinese energy market. Using event study methodology, we found evidence that Russian military intervention announcements had positive and negative effects on these returns. These findings suggest that the effect of these interventions could be related to the level of acceptance of each intervention and relationship between China and Russia.
    Keywords: China; energy markets; war; market efficiency; event study
    JEL: G11 G14 G15
    Date: 2022–04–10
  26. By: Afia Malik (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad); Idrees Khawaja (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics Islamabad)
    Abstract: Rapid urbanisation places pressure on existing infrastructure facilities and the carrying capacity of cities. Pakistan has one of the highest population and urbanisation growth rates in the world.
    Keywords: Urban Resilience, Impact, Electricity
    Date: 2021
  27. By: Horbach, Jens; Rammer, Christian
    Abstract: Eco-innovations are crucial for the mitigation of climate change effects. It is therefore important to know if the existing climate change regulations and carbon pricing are appropriate and sufficient to trigger such innovations. Besides government measures, the demand for carbon neutral products or the impacts of climate change such as extreme weather conditions leading to higher costs for the affected firms may also promote eco-innovation activities. For the first time, the new wave of the Community Innovation Survey 2020 in Germany allows an analysis of the effects of climate change policy and costs, demand for climate friendly goods and extreme weather conditions on (eco-)innovation. The results of probit and treatment effect models show that innovative firms seem to be significantly more affected by climate change measures and consequences compared to other firms. All climate change indicators are positively correlated to eco-innovations. Interestingly, other innovation activities also profit from the extent to which a firm is affected by climate change albeit the marginal effects are lower compared to eco-innovations. Demand for climate neutral products is significantly important for all eco-product-innovations.
    Keywords: Climate change,eco-innovation,Community Innovation Survey,probit regression,treatment effect models
    JEL: C25 C21 O31 Q54 Q55
    Date: 2022
  28. By: Meinerding, Christoph; Poinelli, Andrea; Schüler, Yves
    Abstract: Using survey data from German households, we find that individuals with lower climate concern tend to have higher inflation expectations up to five years ahead. This correlation is most pronounced among individuals with extremely high inflation expectations. Evaluating candidate explanations, we find that part of the link between climate concern and inflation expectations can be associated with individuals' perceived exposures to climate-related risks and with their distrust in the central bank. Overall, our results suggest that climate change perceptions matter for inflation expectations.
    Keywords: climate change,inflation expectations,physical risk,transition risk,central bank distrust,household surveys
    JEL: E31 E50 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2022
  29. By: Ebeling Antoine
    Abstract: What are the determining factors in the allocation of European Investment Bank (EIB) green investments? Using data describing more than 17,000 EIB loans to European Union (EU) member states from 1960 to 2020, we first break down EIB loans into green, neutral and brown loans. We then provide evidence that EIB green investments tend to be allocated to the most advanced economies, specifically, that green investment is positively correlated with high GDP per capita and increases with national environmental expenditure. Our findings illustrate the dichotomy between economic development and environmental objectives faced by the EIB.
    Keywords: European investments Bank ; Green investment ; Climate policy.
    JEL: E22 G24 Q56
    Date: 2022
  30. By: Hung, Dang Ngoc
    Abstract: This study examines the impact of debt structure and the interaction of state ownership on business performance of energy enterprises in Vietnam's stock exchange. Data in the study were collected in the period 2009-2020 with 665 observations, the estimated results by the GLS regression model show that short-term debt and long-term debt have a negative impact on business performance when measured by ROA and Tobin's Q. In energy enterprises in Vietnam, the state often holds the dominant stock, so in this study, we consider the impact of the interaction margin of state ownership, this study finds that the interaction of state ownership and short-term debt have a positive effect on business performance measured by ROA. In addition, the study also looks into control variables, namely firm size, liquidity ratio and asset structure that have a positive impact on business performance. We provide some recommendations to improve capital structure and business performance: Energy companies need to build an optimal capital structure to maximize business value; Investors can quantify the model to decide whether or not to invest or how much to invest in an energy business; The government needs to look into and consider holding a controlling stake in energy enterprises that are really necessary and bring good business results.
    Date: 2022–03–01
  31. By: Andrei V. Belyi; Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Sebastian Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Isilda Mara (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Chart of the Month Non-EU immigrants and COVID-19 – Integration interrupted but not reversed by Sebastian Leitner Opinion Corner Thoughts on the EU’s migration and asylum policies by Michael Landesmann EU policy is developing increasingly in the direction of ‘Fortress Europe’, with the emphasis on external border management plus attempts to cooperate with the countries of origin and transit countries in stemming migrant and refugee flows. Instead, migration policy should be embedded in a more holistic approach that supports and nurtures the development potential of the EU’s neighbouring regions. It should also recognise that the demographic complementarity between an ‘ageing Europe’ and a population-rich and ‘young South’ could be exploited to mutual benefit. COVID-19 and remittances the case of Central Europe and the Western Balkans by Isilda Mara The dynamics of remittances in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic have been highly uneven across countries. In Central Europe, where incomes are relatively high and there are many cross-border commuters, the inflow of remittances generally declined last year. In contrast, in some Western Balkan countries, where dependence on remittances was much higher to start with and a large share of emigrants are permanently settled in some of the wealthiest European countries, remittances surged, providing a lifeline to many households affected by the pandemic. Russia and the European gas crisis by Andrei Belyi The current European gas crisis has resulted from the market cycles which are inherent to commodities. In recent years, LNG inflows have allowed the development of a competitive market, but reduced supplies in the wake of the pandemic have conditioned a sharp hike in gas prices. Although Gazprom has not been directly behind the crisis, it has taken advantage of it mostly by reducing gas flows via Ukraine. Meanwhile, Gazprom continues to fulfil its commitments under long-term oil-indexed contracts, which have existed in parallel with the competitive gas hubs. Hence, recent EU appeals to Russia to increase gas supplies are seen in Moscow as a step towards a partial return to long-term oil-indexed contracts and an opportunity to strengthen Russia’s geopolitical standing in Europe. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe
    Keywords: non-EU migrants, employment rate, COVID-19, migration and asylum policies, demographic complementarity, remittances, liquified natural gas, long-term gas contracts, natural gas pricing
    Date: 2021–10
  32. By: Berle, Erika (University of Stavanger); He, Wanwei (University of Stavanger); Odegaard, Bernt Arne (University of Stavanger)
    Abstract: What are the consequences of widespread ESG-based portfolio exclusions on the expected returns of firms subject to exclusion? We consider two possible theoretical explanations. 1) Short-term price pressure around the exclusions leading to correction of mispricing going forward. 2) Long term changes in required returns. We use the exclusions of Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG -`The Oil Fund') to investigate. GPFG is the world's largest SWF, and its ESG decisions are used as a model for many institutional investors. We construct various portfolios representing the GPFG exclusions. We find that these portfolios have significant superior performance (alpha) relative to a Fama-French five factor model. The sheer magnitude of these excess returns (5% in annual terms) leads us to conclude that short-term price pressure can not be the only explanation for our results, the excluded firms expected returns must be higher in the longer term.
    Keywords: ESG investing; Exclusion; Oil Fund
    JEL: G10 G20
    Date: 2022–04–27
  33. By: Juan Casado-Asensio; Dominique Blaquier; Jens Sedemund
    Abstract: Despite years of donor country engagement, developing countries’ efforts to fight climate change and its consequences remain stifled by important capacity gaps. This paper reviews the experience of development co-operation partners in strengthening capacities in this area. It provides an in-depth analysis of official development assistance trends and flows, as well as an overview of the enabling factors, obstacles and good practices. Finally, it suggests ways to overcome a number of technical, political and organisational challenges, and to accelerate capacity development for more effective climate action in partner countries.
    Keywords: Capacity building, capacity development, climate, climate change, climate change mitigation, climate finance, development co-operation, learning, official development assistance, technical assistance, technical co-operation, training
    Date: 2022–05–03
  34. By: Fatoumata Nankoto Cissé (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, I&P - Investisseurs et Partenaires)
    Abstract: This study analyzes the effect of impact evaluation methodologies on the positive and negative outcomes of decentralized solar nano projects in developing countries. Data originate from the Collaborative Smart Mapping of Mini-grid Actions (CoSMMA) developed by the Foundation for Studies and Research on International Development (FERDI). This study is based on a total of 727 tested effects from 10 decentralized solar nano projects which have been measured by experimental and quasi-experimental approaches. Using a multinomial-logit regression shown that randomized and non-randomized evaluation methods have a similar probability of generating a proven favorable outcome on the sustainable development of decentralized solar nano projects. By estimating a complementary log-log model, projects are most often evaluated as successful when effects on education are tested. In addition, a discrepancy of impacts is found between randomized control trials and difference-indifference strategies in proven-unfavorable outcomes of projects. This analysis also highlights the convergence of impacts between randomization and matching techniques on projects implemented in Africa. Findings from this paper provide strong evidence for development practitioners to choose the appropriate impact assessment method.
    Keywords: Matching,Difference-in-difference,Quasi-experimental methods,Randomized control trials,Experimental methods,Meta-analysis,Impact evaluation,Decentralized electrification,Sustainable development
    Date: 2022–03
  35. By: Souhir Ben Amor; Heni Boubaker; Lotfi Belkacem
    Abstract: In this paper, dual generalized long memory modelling has been proposed to predict the electricity spot price. First, we focus on modelling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional k-factor Gegenbauer process ( k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the k-factor GARMA model has been used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using two different learning algorithms, so we estimate the hybrid k- factor GARMA-LLWNN based backpropagation (BP) algorithm and based particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has been adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMAG- GARCH model have been estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. To illustrate the usefulness of our methodology, we carry out an empirical application using the hourly returns of electricity prices from the Nord Pool market. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has the best prediction accuracy in terms of forecasting criteria, and find that this is more appropriate for forecasts.
    Date: 2022–04
  36. By: Emmanuelle Fromont (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université); Thi Le Hoa Vo (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université); Gulliver Lux (CINBIOSE - UQUAM - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal, UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal, ESG - Ecole des Sciences de la Gestion - UQAM - Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal)
    Abstract: This article studies the impact of the quality of mandatory corporate reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on investors' valuations in a context of increasing legislative constraints and stakeholders' growing information requirements. Using a GHG reporting score estimated from disclosures provided by French companies listed on the SBF 120 from 2016 to 2019, we show that the quality of mandatory GHG reporting improved over the study period despite lack of enforcement measures and appears to be higher among firms in polluting sectors. Our results also suggest that while financial markets are sensitive to the quality of GHG information required under French legislation, they tend to calibrate their valuations of this extra-financial information to the type of sector in which firm operates.
    Abstract: Cet article étudie l'impact de la qualité de la communication réglementée des entreprises en matière d'émissions de Gaz à Effet de Serre (GES) sur la valorisation des investisseurs et ceci dans un contexte de renforcement des contraintes législatives et de croissance des exigences informationnelles des parties prenantes. En utilisant un score de communication GES estimé à partir des publications réalisées entre 2016 et 2019 par les entreprises françaises du SBF 120, nous montrons que la qualité des communications GES réglementées s'est améliorée sur la période d'étude malgré l'absence de mesures coercitives et apparaît particulièrement plus élevée chez les entreprises des secteurs polluants. Nos résultats suggèrent également que si les marchés financiers sont sensibles à la qualité des informations GES exigée par le législateur français, ils tendent à valoriser différemment cette information extra-financière en fonction du secteur d'activité de l'entreprise.
    Keywords: Environmental reporting,quality of GHG information,regulation,investors’ valuations,sector,Reporting environnemental,qualité de l’information GES,réglementation,valorisation des investisseurs,secteur d’activité
    Date: 2022–01–13
  37. By: Lisa Becker (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Dr. Christian Lutz (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)
    Abstract: Klima- und Umweltschutz spielen bereits heute eine wichtige Rolle auf dem Arbeitsmarkt. Durch den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien, Investitionen in Energieeffizienzmaßnahmen sowie durch die Nachfrage nach umweltschutzorientierten Dienstleistungen und Umweltschutzgütern ergibt sich aktuell ein Beschäftigungseffekt von etwa 2,8 Mio. Personen. In Szenarienanalysen bis 2030 werden die Beschäftigungswirkungen einer umfassenden Wirtschaftswende oder einzelner Bereiche der Transformation für die Zukunft abgeschätzt. In dem überwiegenden Teil der Studien wird ein positiver Beschäftigungseffekt berechnet, der bei mehreren hunderttausend zusätzlichen Personen gegenüber einer Referenzentwicklung liegt. Insbesondere das Baugewerbe und die Elektroindustrie gehen als Gewinner hervor – außerdem können Wirtschaftsbereiche wie der Handel oder der Dienstleistungssektor von der gesamtwirtschaftlich besseren Lage profitieren. Negative Effekte auf die Beschäftigung werden für die fossile Energiewirtschaft und die Automobilbranche aufgrund des Übergangs zu erneuerbaren Energien und Elektromobilität erwartet, die im Vergleich zu den positiven Effekten jedoch gering sind. Allerdings wird die Wirtschaftswende Veränderungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt, die durch die Digitalisierung und weitere Trends zu erwarten sind, zusätzlich beschleunigen. Über die Beschäftigung hinaus sind weitergehende ökonomische Effekte (z. B. auf das BIP) überwiegend positiv. Auf den Beschluss des Bundesverfassungsgerichts vom April 2021 hat die Bundesregierung mit einer Erhöhung des Emissionsreduktionsziels für Deutschland auf 65 % bis 2030 gegenüber 1990 reagiert. Bis 2020 gingen die THG-Emissionen ohne Berücksichtigung der Pandemieeffekte um etwa 38 % zurück. Die Wirtschaftswende muss also drastisch beschleunigt werden. Allein durch einen stärkeren Ausbau der erneuerbaren Energien im Strombereich, der mit einer 65%igen Emissionsreduktion vereinbar ist, ergeben sich knapp 60 000 zusätzliche Erwerbstätige im Jahr 2030 gegenüber dem bisherigen Zielpfad einer 55%igen Emissionsreduktion. Eine weitere Zielverschärfung wird von verschiedenen Seiten gefordert. Auch Greenpeace hält angesichts des verbleibenden CO2-Budgets eine Emissionsreduktion von mindestens 70 % bis 2030 und Klimaneutralität bereits vor 2040 für notwendig, was u. a. durch einen stärkeren Ausbau der Windenergie verwirklicht werden soll. Die genauen ökonomischen Effekte hierfür lassen sich ohne Modellrechnung nicht präzise quantifizieren. Vor dem Hintergrund der bestehenden Abschätzungen liegt es jedoch nahe, dass höhere Ausbauziele zu einem gesamtwirtschaftlich positiven Beschäftigungseffekt führen. Dabei müssen jedoch Grenzen der Umsetzbarkeit wie Restriktionen des Arbeitsmarktes, technologische Entwicklungen oder gesellschaftliche Akzeptanz berücksichtigt werden. Die Notwendigkeit einer Wirtschaftswende liegt in der Vermeidung einer hohen Erderwärmung begründet. Die Transformation wird nicht in erster Linie angestrebt, um damit Arbeitsplätze zu schaffen, sondern da sie zum Schutz von Mensch und Umwelt unumgänglich ist. Angesichts der positiven gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte und der hohen Unsicherheit über die Folgen des Klimawandels ist eine klimaneutrale Wirtschaftsweise auch aus ökonomischer Sicht der einzig vernünftige Weg.
    Keywords: Beschäftigung, Arbeitsmarkt, Klimaschutz
    JEL: J21 Q57 Q52
    Date: 2021
  38. By: Daan DB Bijwaard; Teodora TG Gyupchanova; Allison AD Dunne; Julien Gosse; Charles Hoffreumon; Nicolas van Zeebroeck
    Date: 2021–10–07
  39. By: Gnann, Till; Speth, Daniel; Plötz, Patrick; Wietschel, Martin; Krail, Michael
    Abstract: Die Verbreitung von Elektrofahrzeugen spielt eine wichtige Rolle zur Erreichung der Klimaziele im Verkehrssektor und kann auch zu einer größeren Unabhängigkeit der Energieversorgung beitragen. Die Erforschung ihrer Verbreitung ist daher weiterhin von großer Relevanz. Im Rahmen einer Studie für die Nationale Plattform Elektromobilität (NPE) wurden im Jahr 2013 Markthochlaufszenarien für Elektrofahrzeuge bis zum Jahr 2020. Fast zehn Jahre später wird ihm Rahmen dieses Working Papers die damalige Methodik und die Ergebnisse mit realen Entwicklungen abgeglichen. Zudem werden methodische Neuerungen erläutert und ein Ausblick auf Modellergebnisse für das Jahr 2030 gewagt, um die neue politisch gesetzte Zielerreichung von 15 Millionen reinen Elektrofahrzeugen und die Treibhausgas(THG)-Minderungsziele unter die Lupe zu nehmen. Es zeigt sich, dass viele Entwicklungen gut eingeschätzt wurden und man aufgrund der niedrigen Kraftstoffpreise lange keine nennenswerte Marktdurchdringung von Elektrofahrzeugen sehen konnte. Mit zahlreichen politischen Fördermaßnahmen und der EU-Regulierung über die Flottengrenzwerte lag Deutschland Ende 2020 jedoch im mittleren Bereich des 2013 aufgespannten Ergebnisraums. Auch für 2030 ist die Zielerreichung maßgeblich abhängig vom Niveau der Flottengrenzwerte und ambitionierten Zwischenschritten bei der THG-Emissionsminderung. Nur dann können 15 Millionen reine Elektrofahrzeuge 2030 erreicht werden.
    Date: 2022
  40. By: Lisa Becker (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Philip Ulrich (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Dr. Ulrike Lehr (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Gerd Ahlert (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)
    Abstract: Mit dem 2020 beschlossenen Gesetz zur Reduzierung und zur Beendigung der Kohleverstromung und zur Änderung weiterer Gesetze (Kohleausstiegsgesetz) (Bundesgesetzblatt 2020) ist die Diskussion über die Kosten der Energiewende neu aufgelebt. Die Belastung von Haushalten (Fahl et al. 2020) wird dabei besonders kritisch gesehen, so auch bei Pfister, Ecke & Philipps (2020). Dort wird beispielsweise darauf verwiesen, dass eine weitere Zunahme verbrauchsabhängiger Umlagen die Akzeptanz der Energiewende nachhaltig beschädigen könnte. Vielmehr sollten die Verbraucher/-innen entlastet werden und letztlich die Letztverbraucherkosten für Haushalte in Zukunft sinken. Um die Belastung von Haushalten, aber auch von Unternehmen unterschiedlicher Größe und unterschiedlichen Energieverbrauchs zu verstehen und beurteilen zu können, wurden die Letztverbraucherausgaben als Teil des Monitorings der Energiewende im Jahr 2014 (zuletzt EWK 2019) eingeführt und geben seitdem Aufschluss über die Kostenbelastung durch Energieausgaben. Laut Expertenkommission umfassen sie die „jährlich aggregierten Gesamtausgaben der Letztverbraucher“ (EWK 2014, S. 150). Damit sind im engeren Sinn ausschließlich die Ausgaben für den Energieeinsatz gemeint, im weiteren Sinn werden zusätzlich Ausgaben für die Steigerung von Energieeffizienz oder die Erzeugung durch erneuerbare Energien einbezogen. Im Vergleich zur alleinigen Erfassung von Preisdaten geben die Letztverbraucherausgaben ein umfassenderes Bild. Im Monitoring-Prozess werden sie zur Bewertung der Zieldimension Preiswürdigkeit von Energie zurate gezogen (EWK 2019). Hierfür werden sie ins Verhältnis zum BIP gesetzt; so kann überprüft werden, ob sich Energieausgaben und Wirtschaftsleistung gleichermaßen entwickeln. Im Fall einer überproportionalen Zunahme der Energieausgaben von Letztverbrauchern gegenüber dem BIP können Maßnahmen ergriffen werden, die dieser Entwicklung entgegenwirken. Es liegen Vorarbeiten der GWS vor (Lehr, Walter & Lutz 2017), die im Folgenden bis zum Jahr 2019 aktualisiert werden. Die Ausgaben für Strom (Abschnitt 2.1) werden ohne Differenzierung nach Letztverbrauchern oder eingesetzten Energieträgern berechnet. Bei Wärme (Abschnitt 2.2) werden die Ausgaben nach Energieträgern sowie nach Verbrauchergruppen (Haushalte, GHD, Industrie) unterschieden. Im Bereich der Verkehrsausgaben (Abschnitt 2.3) wurde bisher ausschließlich der Straßenverkehr berücksichtigt. Hier werden nun erste Vorschläge für die Bewertung des Energieverbrauchs im Schienen-, Luftverkehr sowie in der Schifffahrt unterbreitet.
    Keywords: Energiewirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung, Letztverbrauchenausgaben, Strom, Wärme, Verkehr
    JEL: Q41 Q43 Q56
    Date: 2021
  41. By: Olivier Damette (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Claude Diebolt (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Stephane Goutte (Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines); Umberto Triacca (UNIVAQ - University of L'Aquila [Italy])
    Abstract: This paper presents the findings of climate change impact on a widespread human crisis due to a natural occurrence, focusing on the so-called Little Ice Age period. The study is based on new non-linear econometrics tools. First, we reassessed the existence of a significant cooling period using outliers and structural break tests and a nonlinear Markov Switching with Levy process (MS Levy) methodology. We found evidence of the existence of such a period between 1560-1660 and 1675-1700. In addition, we showed that NAO teleconnection was probably one of the causes of this climate change. We then performed nonlinear econometrics and causality tests to reassess the links between climate shock and macroeconomic indicators. While the causal relationship between temperature and agricultural output (yields, production, price) is strongly robust, the association between climate and GDP identified by the MS Levy model does not reveal a clear causality link. Although the MS Levy approach is not relevant in this case, the causality tests indicate that social disturbance might also have been triggered by climate change, confirming the view of Parker (2013). These findings should inform current public policies, especially with regard to the strong capacity of climate to disrupt social and economic stability.
    Keywords: Economic cycles,Causality,Markov Switching Levy,Non-linear econometrics,Climate change,Little Ice Age,Social crisis
    Date: 2020–04–16

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