nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2022‒01‒10
fifty-five papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. The share of renewable electricity in electric vehicle charging in Europe is higher than grid mix By Preuß, Sabine; Kunze, Robert; Zwirnmann, Jakob; Meier, Jonas; Plötz, Patrick; Wietschel, Martin
  2. Near-term trends in China's coal consumption By Lin, J; Fridley, D; Lu, H; Price, L; Zhou, N
  3. A dispatching model based exploration of the post-nuclear phase-out Belgian energy mix By MILIS, Kevin; STÜBER, Magdalena; BRAET, Johan; SPRINGAEL, Johan
  4. The impacts of climate change mitigation on work for the Austrian economy By Maja Hoffmann; Clive L. Spash
  5. A Comprehensive Climate Mitigation Strategy for Mexico By Mr. Mehdi Raissi; Ian Parry; Koralai Kirabaeva; Mr. Simon Black; Karlygash Zhunussova
  6. Energy Transition Metals By Mr. Andrea Pescatori; Lukas Boer; Martin Stuermer
  7. What if working from home will stick? Distributional and climate impacts for Germany By Marion Bachelet; Matthias Kalkuhl; Nicolas Koch
  8. How Carbon Dioxide Emissions Would Respond to a Tax or Allowance Price: An Update: Working Paper 2021-16 By Ron Gecan
  9. Natural Resource Taxation in Mexico: Some Considerations By Ms. Alpa Shah
  10. Benchmarking GHG Emissions from California Concrete and Readily Implementable Mitigation Methods By Cunningham, Patrick R.; Miller, Sabbie A.
  11. Climate-Related Stress Testing: Transition Risk in Colombia By Can Sever; Manuel Perez-Archila
  12. The low-carbon transition, climate commitments and firm credit risk By Carbone, Sante; Giuzio, Margherita; Kapadia, Sujit; Krämer, Johannes Sebastian; Nyholm, Ken; Vozian, Katia
  13. Who benefits really from phasing out palmoil-based biodiesel in the EU? By Delzeit, Ruth; Heimann, Tobias; Schünemann, Franziska; Söder, Mareike
  14. Quantifying Environmental Impacts from Concrete Production, While Accounting for Data Variability and Uncertainty By Cunningham, Patrick R.; Miller, Sabbie A.
  16. The UK Clean Air Act, Black Smoke, and Infant Mortality By Fukushima, Nanna
  17. Policy-Induced Innovation in Clean Technologies: Evidence from the Car Market By Rik L. Rozendaal; Herman R. J. Vollebergh
  18. Can today's and tomorrow's world uniformly gain from carbon taxation? By Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Felix Kubler; Andrey Polbin; Simon Scheidegger
  19. The Countries of North Africa And the Prospects for The Region's Interaction with The Russian Federation By Agapova, Anna; Budarina, N; Shafiev, R; Tataeva, I.; Bludova, S.
  20. Data-driven Structural Modeling of Electricity Price Dynamics By Valentin Mahler; Robin Girard; Georges Kariniotakis
  21. Carbon Boards and Transition Risk: Explicit and Implicit exposure implications for Total Stock Returns and Dividend Payouts By Matteo Mazzarano; Giovanni Guastella; Stefano Pareglio; Anastasios Xepapadeas
  22. Sustainability Manifesto for Financial Products: Carbon Equivalence Principle By Chris Kenyon; Mourad Berrahoui; Andrea Macrina
  23. Do Sectoral Growth Promote CO2 Emissions in Pakistan? Time Series Analysis in Presence of Structural Break By Ali, Amjad; Audi, Marc; ŞENTÜRK, İsmail; Roussel, Yannick
  24. Fictional expectations in energy scenarios and implications for bottom-up planning models By Leonard G\"oke; Jens Weibezahn; Christian von Hirschhausen
  25. Monitoring the Climate Impact of Fiscal Policy - Lessons from Tracking the COVID-19 Response By Ms. Katja Funke; Guohua Huang; Khaled Eltokhy; Yujin Kim; Genet Zinabou
  26. Transitions as a coevolutionary process: the urban emergence of electric vehicle inventions By Andrea Ferloni
  27. The need for local governance of global commons: The example of blue carbon ecosystems By Merk, Christine; Grunau, Jonas; Riekhof, Marie-Catherine; Rickels, Wilfried
  28. A Scenario Analysis of the Potential Effects of Decarbonization on the Profitability of the Energy-Intensive and Natural-Resource-Based Industries By Andersson, Fredrik N. G.
  29. Managing spatial linkages and geographic heterogeneity in dynamic models with transboundary pollution By Raouf Boucekkine; Giorgio Fabbri; Salvatore Federico; Fausto Gozzi
  30. What's in it for me? Self-interest and preferences for distribution of costs and benefits of energy efficiency policies By Fanghella, Valeria; Faure, Corinne; Guetlein, Marie-Charlotte; Schleich, Joachim
  31. Les défis et paradoxes de la tansition énergétique By Xavier GALIEGUE
  32. Transportation Costs in the Age of Highways: Evidence from United States 1955-2010 By Barde, Sylvain; Klein, Alexander
  33. Oeffentliche Finanzierung von Klima- und anderen Zukunftsinvestitionen By Tom Krebs; Janek Steitz; Patrick Greichen
  34. Herd behavior in the choice of motorcycles: Evidence from Nepal By Nilkanth Kumar; Nirmal Kumar Raut; Suchita Srinivasan
  35. Developing Hydrogen Infrastructure and Demand: An Evolutionary Game and the Case of China By Zhao, Tian; Liu, Zhixin; Jamasb, Tooraj
  36. Climate reputation risk and abnormal returns in the stock markets: a focus on large emitters By Giovanni Guastella; Matteo Mazzarano; Stefano Pareglio; Anastasios Xepapadeas
  37. What should be taken into consideration when forecasting oil implied volatility index? By Delis, Panagiotis; Degiannakis, Stavros; Giannopoulos, Kostantinos
  38. Climate and environmental risks: measuring the exposure of investments By Enrico Bernardini; Johnny Di Giampaolo; Ivan Faiella; Marco Fruzzetti; Simone Letta; Raffaele Loffredo; Davide Nasti
  39. Detecting Edgeworth Cycles By Timothy Holt; Mitsuru Igami; Simon Scheidegger
  40. Improving Our Understanding of Transport Electrification Benefits for Disadvantaged Communities By Bush, Kristen M.; Lozano, Mark T.; Niemeier, Deb; Kendall, Alissa
  41. Material Efficiency as a Means to Lower Environmental Impacts from Concrete By Ichimaru Watanabe, Sonoka; Kamau-Devers, Kanotha; Cunningham, Patrick; Miller, Sabbie A.
  42. Transformation of Engineering Tools to Increase Material Efficiency of Concrete By Ichimaru Watanabe, Sonoko; Kamau-Devers, Kanotha; Cunningham, Patrick R.; Miller, Sabbie A.
  43. The Quadrilemma of a Small Open Circular Economy Through a Prism of the 9R Strategies By Patrick Grüning; Justina Banionienė; Lina Dagilienė; Michael Donadelli; Marcus Jüppner; Renatas Kizys; Kai Lessmann
  44. Is information enough? The case of Republicans and climate change By Monika Pompeo; Nina Serdarevic
  45. Challenging pollution and the balance problem from rare earth extraction: how recycling and environmental taxation matter By Bocar Samba Ba; Pascale Combes Motel; Sonia Schwartz
  46. Addressing sustainability challenges and Sustainable Development Goals via Smart Specialisation. Towards a theoretical and conceptual framework By Michal Miedzinski; Katerina Ciampi Stancova; Monika Matusiak; Lars Coenen
  47. Women's parliamentary representation and environmental quality in Africa: Effects and transmission channels By Edmond Noubissi; Loudi Njoya
  48. Cassandra's Curse: A Second Tragedy of the Commons By Colo, Philippe
  49. World Corporate Top R&D investors: Paving the way to carbon neutrality By Sara Amoroso; Leonidas Aristodemou; Chiara Criscuolo; Antoine Dechezleprete; Helene Dernis; Nicola Grassano; Laurent Moussiegt; Lorenzo Napolitano; Daisuke Nawa; Mariagrazia Squicciarini; Alexander Tuebke
  50. Les stratégies de développement des énergies renouvelables dans la région MENA : Etude comparative et couloirs de développement By Myriam Ben Saad; Amandine Gnonlonfin; Naceur Khraief; Michel Dimou
  51. The geography of environmental innovation: A critical review and agenda for future research By Losacker, Sebastian; Hansmeier, Hendrik; Horbach, Jens; Liefner, Ingo
  52. Do Travel Surveys Show that Californians Walked and Biked Less in 2017 than in 2012? By Pike, Susan; Handy, Susan
  53. Green gifts from abroad? FDI and firms' green management By Kannen, Peter; Semrau, Finn Ole; Steglich, Frauke
  54. What’s the ‘Big’ Deal withShared Micromobility?Evolution, Curb Policy, and Potential Developments in North America By Shaheen, Susan; Cohen, Adam; Broader, Jacquelyn
  55. Do Economic Incentives Promote Physical Activity? Evidence from the London Congestion Charge By Nakamura, Ryota; Albanese, Andrea; Coombes, Emma; Suhrcke, Marc

  1. By: Preuß, Sabine; Kunze, Robert; Zwirnmann, Jakob; Meier, Jonas; Plötz, Patrick; Wietschel, Martin
    Abstract: Plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) are widely considered a promising option to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in transport. The electricity used for charging is decisive for the environmental assessment of PEV. Most studies assume the average grid mix for charging. This article provides a systematic overview of existing studies and additional data on the electricity contracts of users and charge point operators (CPO) as well as the share of renewables in the charged electricity for PEV in Europe. We combine survey data with existing studies and cover a noteworthy share of the European PEV market and CPO. Our results show that the actual share of renewables in electricity contracts for home and work charging as well as for public CPO is much higher than in the European grid mix. Despite discussions around the methodological use of contracted renewable electricity, our findings imply that many previous studies underestimated the well-to-wheel life-cycle benefits of PEV.
    Date: 2021
  2. By: Lin, J; Fridley, D; Lu, H; Price, L; Zhou, N
    Abstract: Coal combustion to power China’s factories, generate electricity, and heat buildings has increased continually since energy use statistics were first published in 1981. From 2013 until 2015, however, this trend reversed and coal use continued to decline from 2,810 million metric tons of coal equivalent (Mtce) to 2,752 Mtce, leading to a levelling off of China’s overall CO2 emissions. Some analysts have declared that China’s coal consumption may have peaked, but preliminary data indicate that coal consumption increased in 2017. This recent growth, combined with our analysis of projected increases in electricity demand that cannot be met by other fossil-fuel or non-fossil-fuel electricity sources, along with projected increases in coal use in light manufacturing, other non-industrial sectors, as well as in coal use for transformation, indicates potential future growth of China’s coal use to levels of 2,908 Mtce to 3,060 Mtce in 2020, with associated increases in energy-related CO2 emissions.
    Date: 2022–01–05
  3. By: MILIS, Kevin; STÜBER, Magdalena; BRAET, Johan; SPRINGAEL, Johan
    Abstract: While a possible nuclear phase-out for the Belgian energy system has long been the subject of both political and societal debate, prevailing government policy at the beginning of 2021 is to enact a full nuclear phase-out by 2025. While the Belgian government is committed to the phase-out, an evaluation moment is foreseen by the end of 2021, where the final decision on the prospective nuclear phase-out will be made. This is the backdrop against which this paper uses a dispatching model, based on the urbs modelling framework, to estimate possible post-phase-out Belgian energy mixes. The obtained results show an increased reliance on gas-fired plants, or, if CO2 emissions are constrained to pre-phase-out levels, a marked increase in the amount of imported electricity and a fivefold increase in needed installed storage capacity. Total system costs increase as well, due to the additional storage required to allow for the increased penetration of renewable energy sources. These results show that there are important trade-offs between CO2 emissions reductions, energy independence and energy system costs which will have to be navigated after the Belgian nuclear phase-out. Although not a priori part of the scope of the research, the results highlight several signicant vectors for increased blackout risk, such as constrained electricity imports, the failure to realise the needed storage capacity explosion or transmission grid failures.
    Date: 2021–12
  4. By: Maja Hoffmann; Clive L. Spash
    Abstract: Climate change mitigation – reducing emissions to zero and substituting fossil fuels through renewable energy within a maximum of two decades – entails major consequences for modern industrial societies and economies. Industrial societies are structurally centred and dependent on work, however, the implications for work are insufficiently studied. We conduct an empirical analysis of the impacts of climate mitigation on work across all sectors of the Austrian national economy. Using a mixed methods approach, we investigate all NACE-classified branches of economic activity, the respective number of persons employed, CO2 emissions, fossil fuel use, renewable energy potential, and the societal importance of work. We find that the impacts of climate mitigation on work are far more substantial than the literature usually suggests. Required are significant reductions of work across all sectors, and its structural reorganisation based on an altered energy basis. Yet, potential for deployment of renewable energy technologies is currently not given for many fields of work that are dependent on fossil fuels. While the category of essential work further indicates the kinds of work that may be prioritised in transformation processes, particularly problematic are those deemed both essential for society and incompatible with climate mitigation. The study provides an initial empirical basis for substantiated differentiation of kinds of work regarding these key aspects of climate change mitigation and structural transformation. It also points to the need for institutions to address these challenges and the problematic ways in which work is organised and held sacrosanct in modern society.
    Keywords: climate change mitigation, work, employment,fossil fuels, renewable energy, green jobs, just transition, degrowth, sectoral analysis, structural transformation
    JEL: J01 L00 O44 P18 P48 Q40 Q54 Q57
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Mr. Mehdi Raissi; Ian Parry; Koralai Kirabaeva; Mr. Simon Black; Karlygash Zhunussova
    Abstract: This paper discusses a comprehensive strategy for implementing Mexico’s climate mitigation commitments. Progressively increasing carbon prices from current levels of US$3 per ton to US$75 per ton by 2030 would achieve Mexico’s mitigation pledges, while raising annual revenues of 1.8 percent of GDP and cumulatively averting 11,600 deaths from local air pollution. The carbon price would raise fossil fuel and electricity prices, imposing burdens of 2.7 percent of consumption on the average Mexican household. However, recycling carbon pricing revenues would offset most of this burden, and targeted transfers could make the reform pro-poor and pro-equity. Additionally, the economic efficiency costs of carbon pricing (0.3 percent of GDP in 2030) are more than offset by local air pollution and other domestic environmental benefits (before even counting climate benefits). Mexico would need a more ambitious 2030 target if it were to follow many other countries in adopting a midcentury ‘net-zero’ emissions target. To enhance the effectiveness of the mitigation strategy, carbon pricing can be reinforced with sectoral instruments, such as feebates in the transport, power, industry, building, forestry, extractive, and agricultural sectors. Complementary policies are also needed to support public investment in the clean energy transition.
    Keywords: Climate change, Mexico climate mitigation, carbon pricing, carbon tax, emissions trading system, feebate, natural gas, industry, buildings, transportation, agriculture, forestry.; emissions target; mitigation strategy; transition policy; distributional incidence; emission rate; emissions intensity; Greenhouse gas emissions; Carbon tax; Climate change; Natural disasters; Global; Western Hemisphere
    Date: 2021–10–18
  6. By: Mr. Andrea Pescatori; Lukas Boer; Martin Stuermer
    Abstract: The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.
    Keywords: Conditional forecasts, structural vector autoregressions, structual scenario analysis, energy transition, metals, fossil fuels, prices, climate change.; estimate supply elasticity; metals production; energy transition; aggregate commodity demand shock; price risk; Metals; Metal prices; Copper; Supply elasticity; Global
    Date: 2021–10–12
  7. By: Marion Bachelet (MCC Berlin); Matthias Kalkuhl (MCC Berlin, University of Potsdam); Nicolas Koch (MCC Berlin, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), IZA)
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic created the largest experiment in working from home. We study how persistent telework may change energy and transport consumption and costs in Germany to assess the distributional and environmental implications when working from home will stick. Based on data from the German Microcensus and available classifications of working-from-home feasibility for different occupations, we calculate the change in energy consumption and travel to work when 15% of employees work full time from home. Our findings suggest that telework translates into an annual increase in heating energy expenditure of 110 euros per worker and a decrease in transport expenditure of 840 euros per worker. All income groups would gain from telework but high-income workers gain twice as much as low-income workers. The value of time saving is between 1.3 and 6 times greater than the savings from reduced travel costs and almost 9 times higher for high-income workers than low-income workers. The direct effects on CO2 emissions due to reduced car commuting amount to 4.5 millions tons of CO2, representing around 3 percent of carbon emissions in the transport sector.
    Keywords: commuting, home office, COVID-19, energy expenditure, carbon emissions
    JEL: I31 R21 R41 Q41 Q54
    Date: 2022–01
  8. By: Ron Gecan
    Abstract: In this working paper, the Congressional Budget Office describes its recent update of parameters that characterize the relationship between emissions of carbon dioxide and changes in the price of those emissions. Based on a review of recent studies, CBO evaluated how a change in price induced by a tax or an allowance price on emissions would affect the amount of carbon dioxide released by the combustion of fossil fuels in the electric power sector, the transportation sector, and a composite sector that comprises the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors.
    JEL: H23 Q48 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2021–12–14
  9. By: Ms. Alpa Shah
    Abstract: Mexico has large extractive industries and it traditionally has raised sizable fiscal revenues from the oil and gas sector. A confluence of factors—elevated commodity prices, financial challenges of the state-owned oil company Pemex, and revenue needs for financing social and public investment spending over the medium term—suggest that a review of Mexico’s taxation regimes for natural resources would be opportune, against the backdrop of a comprehensive approach to tackling Mexico’s challenges. This paper identifies opportunities for redesigning mining taxation to increase somewhat the revenue intake while maintaining the favorable investment profile of the sector. It also discusses recent reforms to the oil and gas fiscal regime and future reform considerations, with attention to the attractiveness of investment on commercial terms—an issue that should be placed in the context of an overall reform of Pemex’s business strategy and possibly of the energy sector more generally.
    Keywords: Mining, Petroleum, Taxation; fiscal regime; revenue intake; investment profile; natural resource taxation; Pemex's taxation regime; cost cap; Oil, gas and mining taxes; Average effective tax rate; Production sharing; Mining sector; Oil prices; Global; Western Hemisphere
    Date: 2021–10–18
  10. By: Cunningham, Patrick R.; Miller, Sabbie A.
    Abstract: The demand for concrete, which is conventionally composed of granular rocks (aggregates), water, and Portland cement (as well as other additives depending on desired performance) continues to grow. The manufacturing of Portland cement leads to notable greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions, which has driven interest in alternative concrete mixture designs, cement production processes, and other emissions mitigation strategies. To demonstrate the efficacy of such mitigation strategies, environmental impact assessments are commonly performed. However, examination of the probability that a reduction in GHG emissions will occur given known limitations on data quality and variability in data remains poorly studied. Additionally, the common practice of focusing primarily on GHG emissions can lead to selection of emissions mitigation methods with unintended consequences, such as increases in other environmental impacts. This work models 12 potential concrete mixtures capable of achieving the same concrete strength and three potential GHG emissions mitigation strategies: changing kiln fuel mix, changing electricity mix, and using a carbon capture and storage (CCS) system. Focusing on GHG and air pollutant emissions, both deterministic comparisons of mean emissions as well as the probability that the alternative mixtures and mitigation strategies can reduce emissions is examined. This work shows that, even when mitigation strategies are employed, GHG emissions are correlated to the cement content of the mixture. Additionally, as modeled, CCS leads to mean reduction in GHG emissions of over 80% for all mixtures, but also led to increases in other emissions (i.e., NOX, SOX, VOC, CO, PM10, and PM2.5). The probability of a reduction in emissions were greatest for GHGs due to the tighter distribution in emissions modeled. Probabilities for reducing other impacts, such as PM10 and PM2.5 emissions, could be improved with better data quality. This work demonstrates how concurrent environmental impact assessment across several impact categories with consideration for uncertainty and variability can be a robust tool for evaluating various mixture designs and environmental impact mitigation strategies. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Concrete, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Environmental Impact Assessment, Emissions Mitigation Methods
    Date: 2021–12–01
  11. By: Can Sever; Manuel Perez-Archila
    Abstract: This paper builds a framework to quantify the financial stability implications of climate-related transition risk in Colombia. We explore risks imposed on the banking system based on scenarios of an increase in the domestic carbon tax by using bank- and firm-level data. Focusing on the deterioration of firms’ balance sheets and the exposure of banks to different sectors, we assess the extent to which such policy shock would transmit from nonfinancial firms to the banking system. We observe that sectors are affected unevenly by a higher carbon tax. Agriculture, manufacturing, electricity, wholesale and retail trade, and transportation sectors appear to be the most important in the transmission of the risk to the banking system. Results also suggest that a large increase in the carbon tax can generate significant but likely manageable financial stability risks, and that a gradual increase in the carbon tax to meet a higher target over several years could be preferable in terms of financial risks. A gradual increase would also have the benefit of allowing for a smoother adjustment to higher carbon tax for stakeholders.
    Keywords: Climate crisis, climate change, transition risk, carbon emission, carbon tax, green economy, environmental taxes, banking stress, stress testing, financial stability, Colombia
    Date: 2021–11–05
  12. By: Carbone, Sante; Giuzio, Margherita; Kapadia, Sujit; Krämer, Johannes Sebastian; Nyholm, Ken; Vozian, Katia
    Abstract: This paper explores how the need to transition to a low-carbon economy influences firm credit risk. It develops a novel dataset which augments data on firms’ green-house gas emissions over time with information on climate disclosure practices and forward-looking emission reduction targets, thereby providing a rich picture of firms’ climate-related transition risk alongside their strategies to manage such risks. It then assesses how such climate-related metrics influence two key measures of firms’ credit risk: credit ratings and the market-implied distance-to-default. High emissions tend to be associated with higher credit risk. But disclosing emissions and setting a forward-looking target to cut emissions are both associated with lower credit risk, with the effect of climate commitments tending to be stronger for more ambitious targets. After the Paris agreement, firms most exposed to climate transition risk also saw their ratings deteriorate whereas other comparable firms did not, with the effect larger for European than US firms, probably reflecting differential expectations around climate policy. These results have policy implications for corporate disclosures and strategies around climate change and the treatment of the climate-related transition risk faced by the financial sector. JEL Classification: E58, G11, G32, Q51, Q56, C58
    Keywords: climate change, credit risk, disclosure, green finance, net zero, transition risk
    Date: 2021–12
  13. By: Delzeit, Ruth; Heimann, Tobias; Schünemann, Franziska; Söder, Mareike
    Abstract: The latest Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) by the European Union (EU) provides an updated framework for the use of renewable energy in the EU transport sector until 2030. We employ the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model DART-BIO for a scenario-based policy analysis and evaluate different possible futures of biofuel use under four specifications of the RED II. Our results show that conventional biofuels will not become cost competitive to oil-based fuels. Moreover, we demonstrate the impact of the RED II specifications on the global production of food and feed crops. A further focus of this paper lies on the palm oil phase-out as feedstock for biofuels in the EU, to halt deforestation and land-use change in tropical countries. We find that this phase-out has a relatively small impact on global palm fruit production. Moreover, this study shows that the regulation has the potential to act as a technical barrier to trade, discriminating palm oil producing countries in favour of European rapeseed producers.
    Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE),EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED II),Biofuels,Land Use,Land Use Change,High iLUC-Risk,Palm Oil Biodiesel,Palm Oil Phase-Out
    JEL: C68 D58 F18 O13 Q16 Q17
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Cunningham, Patrick R.; Miller, Sabbie A.
    Abstract: Concrete is the second most-used material on earth, surpassed only by water. Concrete is used in construction of roads, bridges, ports, and buildings. Concrete is also responsible for over 8% of annual anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. As population and urbanization increase and existing infrastructure deteriorates, demand for production of concrete will increase, and with it, the environmental burdens from its production. The models used to determine environmental impacts of producing concrete have considerable uncertainty and variability. This makes it challenging to identify the most effective means of mitigating these burdens. These challenges are exacerbated by the fact that the key drivers for air pollutant emissions and GHG emissions vary. While many are linked to the energy resources used in the production of cement, there are also notable air pollutant emissions from quarrying practices. Improved understanding of the environmental impacts from producing concrete and the probability of mitigating such impacts will allow decision makers to examine drivers with the greatest likelihood of yielding meaningful emissions reductions. Researchers at the University of California, Davis used an environmental impact assessment methodology to evaluate impacts throughout each stage of concrete production, while accounting for data uncertainty and variability. This methodology permits assessment of the probability of reducing GHG emissions through commonly discussed mitigation methods, as well as the probability of potential co-beneficial reductions or unintended increases in air pollutant emissions. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Concrete, greenhouse gas emissions, environmental impact assessment, emissions mitigation methods
    Date: 2021–12–01
  15. By: Gaygysyz Ashyrov; Helen Poltimäe
    Abstract: Energy efficiency is an important issue for developing countries like Vietnam, where the economy is thriving, but energy efficiency is still low. Firms should invest in energy efficiency measures, but the desired level is not reached. While the economic determinants of firms’ investments in energy efficiency have been researched, the role of the institutional setting has not gained so much attention. By employing data from Vietnamese small and medium-sized enterprises that has been administered in 2015, this article investigates how corruption, as a sign of institutional dysfunctionality, is associated with the energy efficiency in firms. Results of a bivariate binary probit estimation revealed that bribery increases the likelihood of energy efficiency environmentally friendly investments. However, findings from instrumental variable two stage least squares estimations demonstrate that bribery increases the cost of the investments. Hence, in the long run, corruption might have a deterring effect on energy efficiency investments by firms.
    Keywords: corruption, energy efficiency, institutional setting, Vietnam
    Date: 2022
  16. By: Fukushima, Nanna (Stockholm University)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of the 1956 UK Clean Air Act on infant mortality. Using novel data, I exploit the seasonality in demand for coal to analyze the effects of a staggered expansion of a ban on local smoke emission. The findings show that the policy eliminated the seasonal difference in air quality as well as infant mortality. According to my instrumental variables estimates, the reduction in air pollution between 1957 and 1973 can account for 70 % of the observed decline in infant mortality during the same period. The results are relevant to explain the fast decline in post-war infant mortality in developed countries and understand the effect of pollution on infant mortality in many developing countries.
    Keywords: Health economics, Child mortality, Air pollution, Air pollution control JEL Classification: I12, J13, N540, Q51, Q53, Q58
    Date: 2021
  17. By: Rik L. Rozendaal; Herman R. J. Vollebergh
    Abstract: This article tests the effects of fuel economy and greenhouse gas emission standards on the direction of innovation, in particular on breakthrough technologies in the automotive industry. We develop an intuitive measure of standard stringency that captures the policy’s most important features for the decision as to whether or not to innovate. To test the role of these standards relative to prices and taxes, we construct a firm-level panel of patents in clean and dirty automotive technologies for the years 2000-2016. Our results indicate that standards are a very robust driver inducing clean innovation, whereas taxes also seem to play a role but prices (net of taxes) do not. This effect is driven by patenting for breakthrough technologies, in particular electric vehicle and hydrogen fuel cell technologies. We find no evidence that these policies negatively impact dirty innovation.
    Keywords: environmental policy instruments, regulatory stringency, innovation, directed technical change
    JEL: O30 Q55 Q58
    Date: 2021
  18. By: Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Felix Kubler; Andrey Polbin; Simon Scheidegger
    Abstract: Climate change will impact current and future generations in different regions very differently. This paper develops a large-scale, annually calibrated, multi-region, overlapping generations model of climate change to study its heterogeneous effects across space and time. We model the relationship between carbon emissions and the global average temperature based on the latest climate science. Predicated average global temperature is used to determine, via pattern-scaling, region-specific temperatures and damages. Our main focus is determining the carbon policy that delivers present and future mankind the highest uniform percentage welfare gains – arguably the policy with the highest chance of global adoption. Damages from climate change are positive for all regions apart from Russia and Canada, with India and South Asia Pacific suffering the most. The optimal policy is implemented via a time-varying global carbon tax plus region-and generation-specific net transfers. Uniform welfare improving carbon policy can materially limit global emissions, dramatically shorten the use of fossil fuels, and raise the welfare of all current and future agents by over four percent. Unfortunately, the pursuit of carbon policy by individual regions, even large ones, makes only a limited difference. However, coalitions of regions, particularly ones including China, can materially limit carbon emissions.
    Keywords: none
    JEL: H23 O44
    Date: 2021–09
  19. By: Agapova, Anna; Budarina, N; Shafiev, R; Tataeva, I.; Bludova, S.
    Abstract: Today Africa is the world leader in terms of consumption growth. Agriculture, chemical industry and agro-technologies, oil refining and extractive industries, energy and peaceful nuclear technologies are rapidly developing on the continent. Most countries are interested in the development of infrastructure, the demand for cars and special equipment is growing. Russia is ready to act as a partner for all African countries in a number of areas. These include projects for the supply of the latest Russian equipment for metallurgical and mining enterprises, the development of a transport and logistics system - including not only the supply of rolling stock for railways, aircraft and helicopters of various classes and purposes, but also control and safety systems for the respective modes of transport. In addition, Russia is interested in participating in the creation of energy infrastructure in the countries of the African region - oil and gas and generating capacities, including hydro and nuclear energy, ensuring food security, as well as developing a health care system and drug supply.
    Keywords: North Africa, Cooperation, Export, Import
    JEL: O10
    Date: 2021–03–05
  20. By: Valentin Mahler (PERSEE - Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres, ADEME - Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Energie); Robin Girard (PERSEE - Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Georges Kariniotakis (PERSEE - Centre Procédés, Énergies Renouvelables, Systèmes Énergétiques - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres)
    Abstract: In many countries, electricity prices on day-ahead auction markets result from a market clearing designed to maximize social welfare. For each hour of the day, the market price can be represented as the intersection of a supply and demand curve. Structural market models reflect this price formation mechanism and are widely used in prospective studies guiding long-term decisions (e.g. investments and market design). However, simulating the supply curve in these models proves challenging since estimating the sell orders it comprises (i.e. offer prices and corresponding quantities) typically requires formulating numerous techno-economic hypotheses about power system assets and the behaviors of market participants. In this paper we propose a method for the parameterization of sell orders associated with production units. The estimation algorithm for this parametrization makes it possible to mitigate the requirement for analytic formulation of all of the above-mentioned aspects and to take advantage of the ever-increasing volume of available data on power systems (e.g. technical and market data). Parametrized orders also offer the possibility to account for various factors in a modular fashion, such as the strategic behavior of market participants. The proposed approach is validated using data related to the French day-ahead market and power system, for the period from 2015 to 2018.
    Keywords: Day-ahead markets,Electricity prices,Structural market model,Prospective studies,Power systems
    Date: 2021–11–23
  21. By: Matteo Mazzarano (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano – Dipartimento di Matematica e fisica “Niccolò Tartaglia”, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Brescia); Giovanni Guastella (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano – Dipartimento di Matematica e fisica “Niccolò Tartaglia”, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Brescia); Stefano Pareglio (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano – Dipartimento di Matematica e fisica “Niccolò Tartaglia”, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Brescia); Anastasios Xepapadeas (Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece – Department of Economics, University of Bologna)
    Abstract: The Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) has considered climate change as a risk issue since 2010. Several emission disclosure initiatives exist aimed at informing investors about the financial risks associated with a zero or low carbon transition. Stricter regulations, particularly in a few sectors, could affect operations costs, ultimately impacting companies financial performances, especially of listed companies. There are two ways these companies can disclose their transition risk exposure and are not alternatives. One is the explicit declaration of exposure to transition risk in the legally binding documents that listed companies must provide authorities. The other is the disclosure of GHG equivalent emissions, which is implicitly associated with transition risk exposure. This paper empirically analyses to what extent US companies stock returns incorporate information about transition risk by using explicit and implicit risk measures and comparing them. In addition, multiple total stock return measures distinguishing dividend payouts from simple stock returns. Results suggest that both explicit and implicit risks are positively related to dividend payouts and not to stock returns, while the overall effect on total stock returns is negative. Evidence supports the view that market operators price negatively the transition risk exposure and, probably as a consequence, boards in carbon intensive companies use dividend policies to attract investment in risky companies.
    Keywords: Climate risk, Transition Risk, SEC-10K, Mandatory Disclosure, Text analysis, Dividend Policy
    JEL: G35 G32 G38 Q54
    Date: 2021–11
  22. By: Chris Kenyon; Mourad Berrahoui; Andrea Macrina
    Abstract: Sustainability is a key point for financial markets and the label "Green" is an attempt to address this. Acquisition of the label "Green" for financial products carries potential benefits, hence the controversy and attractiveness of the label. However, such a binary label inadequately represents the carbon impact - we use carbon as a useful simplification of sustainability. Carbon impact has a range either size of zero. Both carbon emissions, and sequestration of carbon, are possible results of financial products. A binary label does not allow differentiation between a carbon neutral investment and a coal power plant. Carbon impact has timing and duration, a planted forest takes time to grow, a coal power plant takes time to emit. Hence we propose the Carbon Equivalence Principle (CEP) for financial products: that the carbon effect of a financial product shall be included as a linked term sheet compatible with existing bank systems. This can either be a single flow, i.e., a summary carbon flow, or a linked termsheet describing the carbon impacts in volume and time. The CEP means that the carbon impact of investment follows the money. Making carbon impacts consistent with existing bank systems enables direct alignment of financial product use and sustainability, improving on non-compatible disclosure proposals.
    Date: 2021–12
  23. By: Ali, Amjad; Audi, Marc; ŞENTÜRK, İsmail; Roussel, Yannick
    Abstract: This study has examined the impact of sectoral growth on CO2 emissions in the case of Pakistan from 1970 to 2019. ADF and PP unit root tests have been applied to check the stationarity of the data series, whereas the Zivot-Andrew structural break unit root test has been applied to check the existence of structural break. The results of the unit root test show there is mixed order of integration among the selected variables, Zivot-Andrew unit root test also highlights the point of a structural break in the data series. The autoregressive distributed lag model has been applied for checking the cointegration among the variables of the model. The results show that industrial growth, population density, and time trend are positively and significantly contributing to CO2 emissions in Pakistan. Whereas services sector growth is responsible for reducing CO2 emissions in Pakistan. The results show that agricultural growth and globalization are reducing CO2 emissions but this relationship is insignificant over the selected time. In the short-run industrial growth, agricultural growth, and service sector growth are reducing the level of CO2 emissions in Pakistan. Likewise long run, trend time is promoting CO2 emissions in the short run in Pakistan. The government of Pakistan can control CO2 emissions by improvement in industrial production methods, reducing population density, and promoting services sector growth. There must be some dynamic policies are required to control the time trend impact on CO2 emission in Pakistan.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions, agriculture growth, industrial growth
    JEL: L0 Q1 Q5
    Date: 2021
  24. By: Leonard G\"oke; Jens Weibezahn; Christian von Hirschhausen
    Abstract: The evolution of renewable energy demonstrates that development of energy systems is not a deterministic process dictated by technology but equally shaped by societal and cultural forces. Key instruments in this process are energy scenarios that describe hypothetical future systems and pathways from the present to this future. Against this background, this paper transfers the sociological concept of fictional expectations to energy scenarios capturing how scenarios, although these are not accurate forecasts, are treated by actors "as-if" and serve as a basis for seemingly rational decisions regarding an unknowable future. As a result, different scenarios compete for credibility to influence decision-making and steer development of the energy system in their favor. These insights on energy scenarios are applied to draw consequences for developing and applying bottom-up planning models, the quantitative tool energy scenarios generally build on. The paper concludes that bottom-up planning models should be open and accessible, minimize and be transparent about bias, aim for a large scope to be policy relevant, not apply stochastic methods just for the sake of adding complexity, and limit the representation of non-technical factors to input assumptions and the interpretation of results.
    Date: 2021–12
  25. By: Ms. Katja Funke; Guohua Huang; Khaled Eltokhy; Yujin Kim; Genet Zinabou
    Abstract: In the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, governments around the world announced unprecedented fiscal packages to address the economic impact of the crisis. The unusually large scale of the packages was accompanied by widespread calls for “greening” them to meet the dual goals of economic recovery and environmental sustainability. In response, several researchers and international organizations attempted to assess the “greenness” of the fiscal policy response of the world’s largest economies. This paper takes stock of the contributions made by these various trackers, identifies strengths and weaknesses of their methodologies, and draws lessons for assessing the climate impact of fiscal policy going forward. It finds that: trackers provided useful assessments of the (generally low) level of greenness and raised awareness; trackers’ methodologies, while valid and innovative, varied significantly with some important, if currently largely unavoidable, weaknesses; and the way forward should involve tracking the greenness of entire government budgets, rather than just their response to the COVID-19 crisis.
    Keywords: Green fiscal policy tracker, green budgeting, COVID-19 response, climate impact assessment; IMF Green tracker policy archetype; climate impact; green fiscal policy tracker; climate relevance; fiscal policy response; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate policy; Climate change; Environmental policy; Global
    Date: 2021–10–29
  26. By: Andrea Ferloni (Institute of Geography and Sustainability (IGD), University of Lausanne- UNIL)
    Abstract: The transition to Electric Vehicles (EVs) is a coevolutionary process involving at least three sectors—EV, battery, and smart grid—in replacing combustion cars. This paper contributes to research on the geography of transitions by linking increased relatedness between technologies over time with their co-location, exploring the spatial emergence of transition industries and the role of local economic systems in enabling it. Patent citations are used to construct three main paths from 1920 to 2020 that permit to geolocate key inventions and to elaborate on the role of cities in supporting knowledge exchanges and recombinations. The case study suggests that a coevolutionary perspective can contribute to understanding the geography of transitions in three ways: by showing how new technology configurations imply varying power relations between industrial fields, by elaborating on the capacity of urban regions to adapt to these, and by illustrating the role of actors and networks in this process.
    Keywords: Coevolution, Electric Vehicle, Geography of transitions, Large Urban Regions, Patent networks, Main path analysis
    Date: 2021
  27. By: Merk, Christine; Grunau, Jonas; Riekhof, Marie-Catherine; Rickels, Wilfried
    Abstract: To limit global warming to 1.5êC, vast amounts of CO2 will have to be removed from the atmosphere via Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR). Enhancing the CO2 sequestration of ecosystems will require not just one approach but a portfolio of CDR options, including so-called nature-based approaches alongside CDR options that are perceived as more technical. Creating a CDR 'supply curve' would however imply that all CDR approaches are considered to be perfect substitutes. The various co-benefits of nature-based CDR approaches militate against this as their common-pool resource characteristics could result in undesired outcomes for CO2-only incentive schemes. We discuss this aspect of nature-based solutions in connection with the enhancement of blue carbon ecosystems (BCE) such as mangrove or seagrass habitats. Enhancing BCEs can indeed contribute to CO2 sequestration, but the value of their carbon storage is low compared to the overall contribution of their ecosystem services to wealth. Furthermore, they are de facto open-access regimes with unclear property rights. Hence, payment schemes that only compensate BCE carbon sequestration could create tradeoffs at the expense of other important ecosystem services and might not result in socially optimal outcomes. Accordingly, one chance for preserving and restoring BCEs lies in the consideration of all services in potential compensation schemes for local communities. Also, local contexts, management structures, and benefit-sharing rules are crucial factors to be taken into account when setting up international payment schemes to support the use of BCEs and other nature- or ecosystem-based CDR. However, regarding these options as the only hope of achieving more CDR will very probably not bring about the desired outcome, either for climate mitigation or for ecosystem preservation. On the other hand, unhalted degradation will make matters worse due to the large amounts of stored carbon that would be released. Hence, countries committed to climate mitigation in line with the Paris targets should not hide behind vague pledges to enhance natural sinks for removing atmospheric CO2 but commit to scaling up engineered CDR.
    Keywords: Carbon Dioxide Removal,nature-based solutions,blue carbon ecosystems,common pool resources,governance,property rights
    JEL: K33 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2021
  28. By: Andersson, Fredrik N. G. (Department of Economics, Lund University)
    Abstract: The decarbonization of the energy-intensive and natural-resourced-based industries is associated with large economic costs. In this paper, I explore how decarbonization may affect the profitability and market value of these industries and their ability to attract capital to fund their decarbonization. I also discuss the possibility of compensating for the investment costs through higher prices and enhanced productivity. I answer these questions using scenario analysis with a focus on the industries in the European Union and the United States. I find that the effects on profitability are likely to be modest despite relatively high investment costs.
    Keywords: decarbonization; energy-intensive; industry; profitability; investment
    JEL: L60 L70 Q54
    Date: 2021–12–17
  29. By: Raouf Boucekkine (ESC Rennes School of Business); Giorgio Fabbri (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Salvatore Federico (Universita degli studi di Genova); Fausto Gozzi (LUISS - Libera Università Internazionale degli Studi Sociali Guido Carli [Roma])
    Abstract: We construct a spatiotemporal frame for the study of spatial economic and ecological patterns generated by transboundary pollution. Space is continuous and polluting emissions originate in the intensity of use of the production input. Pollution flows across locations following a diffusion process. The objective functional of the economy is to set the optimal production policy over time and space to maximize welfare from consumption, taking into account a negative local pollution externality and the diffusive nature of pollution. Our framework allows for space and time dependent preferences and productivity, and does not restrict diffusion speed to be space-independent. Accordingly, we develop a methodology to investigate the environmental and economic implications of spatiotemporal heterogeneity. We propose a method for an analytical characterization of the optimal paths. An application to technological spillovers is proposed for illustration. We focus on the determination of the optimal short-term spatiotemporal dynamics induced by the resulting non-autonomous problems.
    Keywords: Transboundary pollution,spatiotemporal modeling,geographic heterogeneity,infinite dimensional optimal control,optimal spatiotemporal short-term dynamics
    Date: 2021
  30. By: Fanghella, Valeria; Faure, Corinne; Guetlein, Marie-Charlotte; Schleich, Joachim
    Abstract: Public acceptability appears an essential condition for the success of lowcarbon transition policies. In this paper, we investigate the role of self-interest on citizens' preferences for the distribution of costs and of environmental benefits of energy efficiency policies. Using a discrete choice experiment on nationally representative household samples of Italy, Sweden, and the United Kingdom, we first investigate preferences for specific burden-sharing rules and for the distribution of policy environmental benefits accruing primarily in rural and/or urban areas. We examine the role of self-interest in a correlation manner by looking at the effects of income and of location of residency on preferences for these policy attributes. Moreover, we investigate the effect of self-interest on preferences for burden-sharing rules in a causal manner by exogenously priming subsets of participants to feel either rich or poor. Our results suggest that the polluter-pays rule is the most popular burden-sharing rule and an equalamount rule the least popular and that policies with environmental benefits accruing primarily in rural areas are less preferred, with some heterogeneity in preferences across the three countries. We also find evidence for self-interest, both through correlational and through causal approaches.
    Keywords: policy acceptability,self-interest,distributional fairness,discretechoice experiment,energy efficiency
    Date: 2021
  31. By: Xavier GALIEGUE
    Keywords: , Economie des ressources minérales, Transition énergétique, Capture et stockage du CO2
    Date: 2021
  32. By: Barde, Sylvain (University of Kent); Klein, Alexander (University of Kent)
    Abstract: This paper constructs general road transport costs in the United States between 1955 and 2010 combining stock measures of transportation network with fuel consumption, driving speed, fuel prices, and labour costs. This results in a novel data set of 3105×3105 county-pairs for seven benchmark years. Using a county-level counterfactual analysis, we precisely quantify the reduction of the transport cost generated by Interstate Highway System. We document an inverted U-shape pattern for road transport costs, peaking in 1980, explained by initially increasing labor costs, followed by cost reductions due to trucking industry deregulation and the completion of the IHS.
    Keywords: Transport costs, Interstate Highway System, Road Network, Dijkstra’s algorithm JEL Classification: N72, N92, O18, R41
    Date: 2021
  33. By: Tom Krebs (Universitaet Mannheim); Janek Steitz (Agora Energiewende); Patrick Greichen (Agora Energiewende)
    Abstract: Germany needs to increase green public investment at the federal level by 30 billion Euros per year to reach its climate goals. This paper discusses how to finance the additional investments without violating the constitutional debt brake. Three financing instruments are available to the German government. The first instrument is a debt-financed capital injection for public sector companies. The second instrument consists of a direct subsidy for green private investments combined with tax breaks for green private investments. The third instrument is the use of the exemption rule of the debt brake in 2022 to provide financing of investment in the subsequent years. The paper argues that the German government can finance all its green investment needs without violating the constitutional debt brake if it makes full use of the three instruments.
    Keywords: Klima, Klimaneutralitaet, oeffentliche Investitionen, oeffentlicher Finanzbedarf
    JEL: H23 H54 L52 L95 L98 Q41 Q42 Q54
    Date: 2021–11
  34. By: Nilkanth Kumar (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland); Nirmal Kumar Raut (Central Department of Economics (CEDECON), Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal); Suchita Srinivasan (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland)
    Abstract: This article sheds light on a scarcely explored area of research related to herd behavior in urban settings of developing economies, where the use of motorized twowheelers has been increasing rapidly. Using primary survey-based data from Nepal, we examine whether potential motorcycle buyers in the Kathmandu valley exhibit herd behavior or price-conscious behavior when making a hypothetical choice decision and then evaluate the determinants of the observed behavior. Using factor analysis, the paper identifies distinct homogeneous groups of respondents based on their preferences towards motorcycle attributes and on their psychological traits and attitudes. Not only do we find a prevalence of herding in the choice of motorcycles, the results also find strong suggestive evidence that, in addition to gender and income, several latent factors related to preferences and psychological traits might play a crucial role in determining the herd behavior. We discuss policy implications in the context of consumer behavior and environmental policy in the backdrop of rapid vehicle demand and dangerous air pollution levels.
    Keywords: herd behavior; determinants; motorcycle choice; psychological factors; bounded rationality; Nepal
    JEL: D12 D83 D91 Q58
    Date: 2022–01
  35. By: Zhao, Tian (School of Economics and Management, Beihang University); Liu, Zhixin (School of Economics and Management, Beihang University); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: Diffusion of hydrogen refueling stations (HRS) is key to promotion of hydrogen vehicles. In this paper, we explore the nexus between critical stakeholders in the hydrogen industry from a game perspective. We investigate the proposed policy for promotion of hydrogen vehicles in China. We model the three main actors in hydrogen infrastructure development, i.e. public sectors, private investors, and consumers. The tripartite evolutionary game analyzes the interactive policy process of subsidy provision, infrastructure investment, and fuel consumption. We then examine the evolutionary stable strategy (ESS) of the system. We propose a policy mechanism for how to set values of key parameters to promote active cooperation of the three actors in HRS diffusion. A numerical simulation validates the solution of the game and sensitivity analyses of initial probabilities and key parameters. We find that boosting initial willingness of actors to choose cooperative hydrogen strategies is beneficial to lead the game system to the ideal consequence. We offer some recommendations including establishing regulation standards for the construction of HRS, increasing financial incentives to each actor and decreasing the cost of HRS and retail price of hydrogen.
    Keywords: Hydrogen infrastructure; Evolutionary game; Numerical simulation; China
    JEL: C73 Q42 Q48 R42
    Date: 2021–11–21
  36. By: Giovanni Guastella (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano – Dipartimento di Matematica e fisica “Niccolò Tartaglia”, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Brescia); Matteo Mazzarano (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano – Dipartimento di Matematica e fisica “Niccolò Tartaglia”, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Brescia); Stefano Pareglio (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milano – Dipartimento di Matematica e fisica “Niccolò Tartaglia”, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Brescia); Anastasios Xepapadeas (Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece – Department of Economics, University of Bologna)
    Abstract: Transition to a climate-neutral society is expected to generate disruptive changes and influence the investors and consumers’ perception. According to the Task Force on Climate-related Disclosures, firms that compose the polluting sectors might be vulnerable to reputation risk. In this work, we investigated the effect of climate-related announcements of listed companies on their equity performance. Focusing on the major historical greenhouse gas equivalents emitters, we studied the effect of companies’ climate-related social media activity on their daily abnormal returns in general and during climate-related events. Results suggest that climate-related announcements expose firms to abnormally negative returns. Sensitive external events and political rallies coincided with negative stock returns within investor’s expectations.
    Keywords: Transition Risk, Reputation risk, Events Analysis, Text Analysis, Efficient Markets
    JEL: G32 G41 Q54
    Date: 2021–11
  37. By: Delis, Panagiotis; Degiannakis, Stavros; Giannopoulos, Kostantinos
    Abstract: Crude oil is considered a key commodity in all the economies around the world. This study forecasts the oil volatility index (OVX), which is the market’s expectation of future oil volatility, by incorporating information from other asset classes. The literature does not extensively test the long memory of the targeted volatility. Thus, we estimate the Hurst exponent implementing a rolling window rescaled analysis. We provide evidence for a strong long memory in the implied volatility (IV) indices which justifies the use of the HAR model in obtaining multiple days ahead OVX forecasts. We also define a dynamic model averaging (DMA) structure in the HAR model in order to allow for IV indices from other asset classes to be applicable at different time periods. The implementation of the DMA-HAR models informs forecasters to focus on the major stock market IV indices, and more specifically on the DJIA Volatility Index. Our results lead us to the conclusion that accurate OVX forecasts are obtained for short- and mid-run forecasting horizons. The evaluation framework is not limited to statistical loss functions but also embodies an options straddle trading strategy.
    Keywords: crude oil, implied volatility, HAR modelling, trading strategies, dynamic model averaging, long memory
    JEL: C58 G17 Q47
    Date: 2021–11–26
  38. By: Enrico Bernardini (Bank of Italy); Johnny Di Giampaolo (Bank of Italy); Ivan Faiella (Bank of Italy); Marco Fruzzetti (Bank of Italy); Simone Letta (Bank of Italy); Raffaele Loffredo (Bank of Italy); Davide Nasti (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: This paper presents a number of methodologies for assessing the climate risk exposure of several financial asset classes. Regarding government bonds, the paper proposes using public information; in order to develop forward-looking measures of countries’ risk exposure, the paper uses historical trends combined with governments’ climate commitments and the scenarios developed by the Network for Greening the Financial System. With regard to private sector issuers, the paper finds quite a high coverage and correlation amongst the carbon emissions data from different providers, while the divergences in the data for other environmental indicators are still significant. Finally, the paper shows that the application of sustainability criteria in the Bank of Italy’s investment strategy delivered a non-negligible reduction in the exposure to the climate and environmental risks of the portfolios.
    Keywords: sustainable finance, investments, climate risks, environmental risks
    JEL: E58 G11 Q56
    Date: 2021–12
  39. By: Timothy Holt; Mitsuru Igami; Simon Scheidegger
    Abstract: We propose algorithms to detect "Edgeworth cycles", asymmetric price movements that have caused antitrust concerns in many countries. We formalize four existing methods and propose six new methods based on spectral analysis and machine learning. We evaluate their accuracy in station-level gasoline-price data from Western Australia, New South Wales, and Germany. Most methods achieve high accuracy in the first two, but only a few can detect nuanced cycles in the third. Results suggest whether researchers find a positive or negative statistical relationship between cycles and markups, and hence their implications for competition policy, crucially depends on the choice of methods.
    Keywords: Edgeworth cycles, Fuel prices, Markups, Nonparametric methods
    JEL: C45 C55 L13 L41
    Date: 2021–11
  40. By: Bush, Kristen M.; Lozano, Mark T.; Niemeier, Deb; Kendall, Alissa
    Abstract: Senate Bill 350 (SB 350) requires the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to direct utilities to undertake transportation electrification (TE) activities and to ensure that, among other factors, access to TE-related opportunities for low- and moderate-income communities, as well as disadvantaged communities (DACs) increase as TE becomes more widespread. This research explores the range of tangible benefits that the implementation of TE programs can achieve for DACs. The research questions examine how funds spent to date through SB 350 target investment intended to support DACs; how public and private investments in DACs ensure energy justice, transportation justice, and equity, and finally how perceptions and priorities of stakeholders inform the implementation of TE programs. The researchers collected metrics from various California sources and across the literature, and then asked stakeholders in the CPUC Service List associated with SB 350 proceedings to rank and provide their expert opinion on various metrics by their relative importance. From this information, a final weighted evaluation framework was created. The most important metrics for projects targeted under SB 350 were tangible benefits for local community members; improvements in local air pollution; transparent and collaborative community engagement; consideration of end-of-life impacts, and enhanced access to additional sustainable technologies. The least important metrics include forecasted business closures; potential for accident zones; effects on native flora and fauna; upstream impacts (i.e., through raw material acquisition or construction phases), and/or the support of distributed generation and the development of micro-grids in electrification plans. The framework developed as part of this research supports program evaluation by guiding program administrators through a set of questions designed to facilitate a detailed account of expected outcomes and potential externalities. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Disadvantaged Communities, Senate Bill 350, transportation electrification, evaluation framework
    Date: 2022–01–01
  41. By: Ichimaru Watanabe, Sonoka; Kamau-Devers, Kanotha; Cunningham, Patrick; Miller, Sabbie A.
    Abstract: Concrete is a key component of the built environment. However, the manufacture of cement-based materials, such as concrete, produces over 8% of worldwide anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. While reducing impacts from material production is an important strategy, structural design can also mitigate the environmental impacts of concrete. Designing infrastructure in a manner that uses concrete more efficiently, and thus lowers consumption while meeting the same system demands, holds promise for reducing GHG emissions while avoiding unintended consequences. Researchers at the University of California, Davis developed an initial methodology to evaluate implications of design decisions on the environmental impacts of concrete systems using a multi-criteria selection process to assist decision-makers. They demonstrated the methodology with a case study evaluating a built Caltrans pavement overlay for which comparisons of the GHG emissions and costs of various design alternatives were examined. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Admixtures, Cement, Concrete, Decision support systems, Environmental impacts, Greenhouse gases, Materials, Performance based specifications, Pollutants, Reinforcement (Engineering), Service life, Tools
    Date: 2021–12–01
  42. By: Ichimaru Watanabe, Sonoko; Kamau-Devers, Kanotha; Cunningham, Patrick R.; Miller, Sabbie A.
    Abstract: This report demonstrates how considerations across concrete material design and infrastructure design can be used together to change environmental impacts and costs by targeting appropriate constituents, materials, and system longevity. In this early-stage exploration, methods to compare concrete mixtures proportioning as they relate to environmental impacts, comparison indices based on common performance characteristics were used. This work was then built out to explore the role of steel reinforcement on reinforced concrete member environmental impacts to elucidate mechanisms to drive emissions reduction for these multi-material members. Finally, work was extended to understand how the longevity of concrete systems could influence environmental impacts associated with concrete production. Each stage of design considered was shown to have substantial effects on mitigating environmental impacts. In all cases, the primary environmental impact addressed was greenhouse gas emissions; however, this work can be extended to address other environmental impacts in future work. These methods from this work are demonstrated in this report through evaluation of mixtures in literature as well as a case study on an existing pavement overlay and potential alternative designs. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Concrete, material efficiency, environmental impact assessment, cost assessment, material selection, design decision making
    Date: 2021–12–01
  43. By: Patrick Grüning (Latvijas Banka & Vilnius University); Justina Banionienė (Kaunas University of Technology); Lina Dagilienė (Kaunas University of Technology); Michael Donadelli (University of Brescia); Marcus Jüppner (Deutsche Bundesbank, Goethe University); Renatas Kizys (University of Southampton); Kai Lessmann (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)
    Abstract: The Circular Economy (CE) challenges the traditional linear economy model to arrive at a sustainable economy that minimizes resource use, its negative environmental impact, and dependency on resource imports. We develop a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium small open economy model with endogenous adoption of exogenous foreign technology innovations, endogenous environmental quality, and CE elements, comprising recyclable waste as well as recycling and refurbishing sectors. We analyze the model-implied impulse response functions with respect to several economic shocks and conduct a rich scenario-based analysis, for which the scenarios are derived from the 9R strategies. We find important trade-offs to be considered by the economy with respect to circularity, trade, environment, and growth – the four dimensions of the quadrilemma of a small open circular economy. We find that none of the six shocks considered and in none of the eight scenarios analyzed the quadrilemma can be resolved. However, a positive shock to the price of energy or a lower energy share in one of the two intermediate goods sectors provide benefits to three out of four dimensions of the quadrilemma.
    Keywords: Circular economy, Small open economy, Recycling, Refurbishing, Endogenous economic growth, Technology adoption, General equilibrium, Energy
    JEL: E2 F4 O3 O4 Q4 Q5
    Date: 2021–11–24
  44. By: Monika Pompeo (University of Nottingham, University of Bologna); Nina Serdarevic (Norwegian School of Economics)
    Abstract: One of the most important determinants when it comes to climate change attitudes is political partisanship. While both Democrats and Republicans underestimate the share of their in-groups that believe climate change is happening, this perception gap is wider for Republicans. Using a sample of Republican respondents, we examine their beliefs about climate change and the perceived distribution of climate change attitudes of either other Americans or Republicans. Then, to generate exogenous variation in beliefs, we provide respondents in the treatment groups with the actual distribution of either American or Republican attitudes towards climate change. Our results highlight the importance of distinguishing between beliefs and behaviour when assessing the effect of information on issues that fall strongly along party lines. While information alters the respondents’ beliefs about the Republican Party’s stance on climate change, it is not enough to instigate a change in individual donation behaviour.
    Keywords: Republicans, partisanship, climate change, social norms, information, online experiment
    Date: 2021–08
  45. By: Bocar Samba Ba; Pascale Combes Motel (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sonia Schwartz (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Rare earth element extraction induces environmental damages and the balance problem. In this article, we show that recycling can challenge both problems in a two-period framework. We also find other results depending on the amount of scrap that can be recycled. If the recycling activity is not limited by available scrap, it does not change extraction in the first period. Environmental taxes on extracted quantities reduce extraction and favor recycling. But if the recycling is limited, the extractor reduces extraction in period one, adopting a foreclosure strategy, and environmental taxes can decrease recycling. In all cases, environmental taxes are never equal to the marginal damage from pollution, in order to take into account the recycling effect.
    Keywords: Rare Earth Elements,Pollution,Balance Problem,Recycling,Pigouvian Taxation,Cournot Competition
    Date: 2020–12
  46. By: Michal Miedzinski; Katerina Ciampi Stancova (European Commission - JRC); Monika Matusiak (European Commission - JRC); Lars Coenen
    Abstract: The ongoing work on addressing sustainability challenges and Sustainable Development Goals via Smart Specialisation builds on Smart Specialisation concept of place-based research and innovation agenda for regional economic transformation, and extends it further to include the UN 2030 Agenda objectives (17 SDGs), the European Green Deal and aspects of social and environmental sustainability. The purpose of this study is to reflect upon the S3 framework within the context of transition studies, notably socio-technical transitions, social-ecological resilience and challenge-driven innovation policy. The study includes discussion on the strengths and limitations of the current S3 framework and makes suggestions on how to strengthen and revisit the S3 approach based on the insights from these approaches. The study proposes the guidelines, accompanied with a self-assessment tool for regions, in support of their effort in designing and implementing smart specialisation strategies for sustainable transformation.
    Keywords: Smart Specialisation, Sustainable Development Goals, European Green Deal, transitions, resilience, innovation policy
    Date: 2021–12
  47. By: Edmond Noubissi (University of Dschang, Cameroon); Loudi Njoya (University of Dschang, Cameroon)
    Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between gender and the environment. There are indeed very few studies on this topic, and existing studies have not yet investigated the channels through which women's presence in parliaments affects the environment. We use a stochastic impact model extended to the population, wealth and technology regression model to estimate both the effect and transmission of women parliamentarians on the environment in 25 African countries from 2000 to 2016. The empirical results show that the presence of women in parliament contributes to the improvement of environmental quality in Africa. In addition, the mediation analysis reveals that women parliamentarians not only have a direct positive effect on the environment but also a positive indirect effect through their impact on per capita income, corruption and development assistance. To enhance the positive effects of women parliamentarians on the environment, governments should design policies to encourage women to participate in economic activities, integrate anti-corruption programmes and participate in the management of development assistance.
    Keywords: Women's parliamentary, environmental quality, African countries
    JEL: F63 F64 J16
    Date: 2021–01
  48. By: Colo, Philippe
    Abstract: This paper studies why scientific forecasts regarding exceptional or rare events generally fail to trigger adequate public response. A major example is climate change: despite years of scientific reporting, public acceptance of economic regulations is still limited. Building on the main causes identified by surveys for these reluctances, this paper offers an explanatory mechanism for this paradox. I consider a game of contribution to a public bad: greenhouse gases emissions. Prior to that, contributors receive expert advice regarding climate damages. Because of climate science's complexity, experts' forecasts are non-verifiable. In addition, I assume that the expert cares only about social welfare. Under mild assumptions, I show that no information transmission can happen at equilibrium when the number of contributors is high or the severity of climate damages is low. Then, contributors ignore scientific reports and act solely upon their prior belief.
    Keywords: Contribution to a public bad, Cheap talk, Climate change
    JEL: D62 D83
    Date: 2021–11–30
  49. By: Sara Amoroso (European Commission - JRC); Leonidas Aristodemou (OECD); Chiara Criscuolo; Antoine Dechezleprete (OECD); Helene Dernis (OECD); Nicola Grassano (European Commission - JRC); Laurent Moussiegt (OECD); Lorenzo Napolitano (European Commission - JRC); Daisuke Nawa (OECD); Mariagrazia Squicciarini; Alexander Tuebke (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: This biennial report continues the joint JRC-OECD analysis of the IP portfolios of the world's top 2 000 R&D investors. The report shows that global R&D and patenting activities are highly concentrated among the world’s top 2 000 R&D investors. These are equivalent to 87% of global business R&D expenditures by the private sector and 63% of patent filings across all technologies. There is much less concentration at the commercialisation stage, with only 6% of total trademarks owned by the top R&D investors. The world’s top R&D investors are key contributors to global climate-related innovation. They own 70% of global climate change mitigation or adaptation patents and over 10% of global climate-related trademarks, which is larger than their contribution to overall patents and trademarks across all fields. Looking at the potential contribution of the digital revolution to climate-related innovation at the invention stage, 20% of climate-related patents have a digital component (against 33% for patents across all technological fields). Finally, this edition of the report investigates for the first time the gender composition of both the board of directors of the top 2 000 R&D investors, and of their R&D workforce. In general, EU27 companies have on average more gender-balanced boards than the US and the Asian ones, with a women representation of at least 26%. A substantial gender gap is also observed for inventors listed in patent applications, with significant heterogeneity across countries and sectors.
    Keywords: R&D investment, Green Patent, Intellectual Property, Patents, Trademarks, Gender Balance
    Date: 2021–11
  50. By: Myriam Ben Saad (ESPI2R - Laboratoire ESPI Réflexions et Recherches (1997-2021) - ESPI - Ecole Supérieure des Professions Immobilières, PRISM - Pôle de recherche interdisciplinaire en sciences du management - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne); Amandine Gnonlonfin; Naceur Khraief; Michel Dimou
    Abstract: Depuis la fin des années 90, plusieurs pays MENA se sont engagés en faveur du développement des énergies renouvelables. Dans le but de relever le double défi économique et environnemental, le Plan Solaire Méditerranéen (Paris, 2008) encourage cet engagement avec l'ouverture au marché européen et l'augmentation de la production de l'électricité renouvelable. Dès lors, plusieurs projets d'investissement ont été mise en œuvre pour augmenter la production des énergies renouvelables dans la région. Toutefois, les efforts d'investissement dans ces énergies varient à la l'échelle d'un pays à l'autre et il manque à ce jour des éléments de comparaison de la position des pays par rapport à leur engagement politique. La problématique est non seulement de savoir comment l'engagement politique des pays MENA affecte leur offre en énergies renouvelables, mais aussi de savoir les sources d'énergies renouvelables qui ont été privilégiées. La littérature sur la consommation d'énergie a mis l'accent sur la relation de causalité entre consommation d'énergie et croissance économique avec quatre hypothèses testables : l'hypothèse de la croissance, l'hypothèse de conservation, l'hypothèse de la rétroaction et l'hypothèse de neutralité. Nous contribuons à cette littérature en testant la validité empirique de la fonction de production néo-classique. Notre apport principal est la prise en compte de la cointégration et les asymétries non linéaire et entre les variables avec le modèle Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) (Banerjee et al., 1998 ; Pesaran et al., 2001 ; Shin et al., 2014). Notre objectif est de produire des éléments de comparaison entre les pays MENA et d'étudier les stratégies de production de l'électricité renouvelable qui permettent de créer une dynamique de développement durable à long terme.
    Date: 2021–11–18
  51. By: Losacker, Sebastian (University Hannover); Hansmeier, Hendrik (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI); Horbach, Jens (University of Applied Sciences Augsburg); Liefner, Ingo (University Hannover)
    Abstract: Environmental innovations make an important contribution to solving ecological and climate crises. Although these crises are global phenomena, the regional dimension plays a crucial role, as regions both provide the conditions for the development of environmental innovations and promote widespread use and diffusion. Against this background, this article has two objectives. Firstly, we critically review the state of research on regional determinants of environmental innovation. Secondly, based on these results, we develop an agenda for further research in regional studies that will help to better understand the geography of environmental innovation and to come up with useful region-specific policy recommendations.
    Keywords: environmental innovation; geography of innovation; sustainability transitions; regional development; geography of transitions
    JEL: O31 O33 Q55 R11
    Date: 2021–12–17
  52. By: Pike, Susan; Handy, Susan
    Abstract: The California Department of Transportation set a goal of doubling walking and transit use and tripling bicycling in the state between 2010 and 2020. However, the most recent comprehensive travel surveys, the 2012 California Household Travel Survey (CHTS) and the California results from the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), suggest that the state is moving in the wrong direction. These surveys seemed to show that a smaller share of trips were made by walking or biking in 2017 than in 2012, while private vehicle mode share increased. It is unclear whether the decline represents real changes stemming from various demographic or other factors or is instead related to methodological differences between the two surveys. Researchers at the University of California, Davis used the publicly available 2012 CHTS and 2017 NHTS California add-on data to examine the impact of methodological differences on the changes in mode shares over this five-year period and conducted a preliminary investigation into the role of demographic and other factors in these changes. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Bicycling, Data preparation, Modal shift, Modal split, Travel behavior, Walking
    Date: 2021–12–01
  53. By: Kannen, Peter; Semrau, Finn Ole; Steglich, Frauke
    Abstract: Improvements of firms' environmental performance crucially determine the speed of a country's green economic transformation. In this paper, we investigate whether firms with foreign ownership are more likely to adopt 'green' management practices, which determine the capability to monitor and improve a firm's impact on the environment. By using multi-country firm-level data, we show that foreign ownership increases the likelihood of implementing green management practices. Considering country heterogeneity, we reveal that only firms based in more developed economies and in countries with better environmental performance benefit from foreign direct investment, while this is not the case for firms based in less developed economies or countries with weak environmental performance. In addition, we find that the effect is more robust for manufacturing sector firms than for service sector firms. Overall, our results suggest that foreign ownership can contribute towards a country's green economic transformation.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment,Green/environmental management,Green economic transformation,Emerging markets
    JEL: F21 F64 M10 Q56
    Date: 2021
  54. By: Shaheen, Susan; Cohen, Adam; Broader, Jacquelyn
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2021–01–01
  55. By: Nakamura, Ryota; Albanese, Andrea; Coombes, Emma; Suhrcke, Marc
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of economic incentives on travel-related physical activity, leveraging the London Congestion Charge's disincentivising of sedentary travel modes via increasing the cost of private car use within Central London. The scheme imposes charges on most types of cars entering, exiting and operating within the Central London area, while individuals living inside the charging zone are eligible for a 90% reduction in congestion charges. Geographical location information provides the full-digit postcode data necessary to precisely identify the eligibility for the discount of participants in the London Travel Demand Survey for the period 2005-2011. Using a boundary regression-discontinuity design reveals a statistically significant but small impact on active commuting (i.e. cycling and walking) around the border of the charging zone. The effect is larger for lower-income households and car owners. The findings are robust against multiple specifications and validation tests.
    Keywords: economic incentive,health behaviour,London Congestion Charge,geographical information system,regression-discontinuity
    JEL: D04 I12 R48
    Date: 2021

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