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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Paul Malliet (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Frédéric Reynés (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Gissela Landa (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Meriem Hamdi‑cherif; Aurélien Saussay (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | In response to the COVID-19 health crisis, the French government has imposed drastic lockdown measures for a period of 55 days. This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the economic and environmental impacts of these measures in the short and long term. We use a Computable General Equilibrium model designed to assess environmental and energy policies impacts at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels. We find that the lockdown has led to a significant decrease in economic output of 5% of GDP, but a positive environmental impact with a 6.6% reduction in CO2 emissions in 2020. Both decreases are temporary: economic and environmental indicators return to their baseline trajectory after a few years. CO2 emissions even end up significantly higher after the COVID-19 crisis when we account for persistently low oil prices. We then investigate whether implementing carbon pricing can still yield positive macroeconomic dividends in the post-COVID recovery. We find that implementing ambitious carbon pricing speeds up economic recovery while significantly reducing CO2 emissions. By maintaining high fossil fuel prices, carbon taxation reduces the imports of fossil energy and stimulates energy efficiency investments while the full redistribution of tax proceeds does not hamper the recovery. |
| Keywords: | Carbon tax,CO2 emissions,Macroeconomic modeling,Neo-Keynesian CGE model,Post-COVID economy |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03403038&r= |
| By: | Shenghao Feng; Keyu Zhang; Xiujian Peng |
| Abstract: | Electricity penetration is an important part of China's pursuit of carbon neutrality. Understanding the costs of replacing fossil fuel with electricity helps to understand the costs of reaching carbon neutrality in China. This study uses econometrics techniques to estimate the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) parameter between electricity and non-electric energy for China. Results show that the value is around 1.8 -- higher than the ones that have been used in the literature. We show that our estimated results are non-linearly stable. We compare our econometrically estimated parameter with two representative values that have been used in the literature. We apply these three parameter values in scenarios in which China reaches carbon neutrality in 2060. Simulation results suggest that the two representative values lead to overestimations of GDP costs and carbon price levels, and underestimations of electricity generation and energy consumption. |
| Keywords: | CGE, CES, econometrics estimation, carbon neutrality, China, electricity |
| JEL: | C68 E17 Q43 Q47 Q48 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-323&r= |
| By: | Harding, Matthew (University of California, Irvine); Kettler, Kyle (University of California, Irvine); Lamarche, Carlos (University of Kentucky); Ma, Lala (University of Kentucky) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a cautionary tale about claiming environmental costs and benefits when justifying the use of public funds. Using the example of a dynamic pricing policy, we show that the resulting impact on short-term operating costs and emissions is at best ambiguous. Moreover, it is hard to quantify even in ideal scenarios where data is plentiful and the behavioral response can be estimated precisely using a randomized control trial of customers of an electric utility. While dynamic pricing has been touted as a means to control generation costs and pollution, price-induced reallocation of electricity consumption within a day may actually increase net emissions depending on the source-generation mix of a region. |
| Keywords: | dynamic pricing, randomized experiment, load shifting, air pollution |
| JEL: | D12 L11 L94 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14846&r= |
| By: | Samuel Kortum; David A. Weisbach |
| Abstract: | We derive the optimal unilateral policy in a general equilibrium model of trade and climate change where one region of the world imposes a climate policy and the rest of the world does not. A climate policy in one region shifts activities—extraction, production, and consumption—in the other region. The optimal policy trades off the costs of these distortions. The optimal policy can be implemented through: (i) a nominal tax on extraction at a rate equal to the global marginal harm from emissions, (ii) a tax on imports of energy and goods, and a rebate of taxes on exports of energy but not goods, both at a lower rate than the extraction tax rate, and (iii) a goods-specific export subsidy. The policy controls leakage by combining supply-side and demand-side taxes to control the price of energy in the non-taxing region. It exploits international trade to expand the reach of the climate policy. We calibrate and simulate the model to illustrate how the optimal policy compares to more traditional policies such as extraction, production, and consumption taxes and combinations of those taxes. The simulations show that combinations of supply-side and demand-side taxes are much better than simpler policies and can perform nearly as well as the optimal policy. |
| Keywords: | carbon taxes, border adjustments, leakage, climate change |
| JEL: | F18 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9409&r= |
| By: | Robert J R Elliott (University of Birmingham); Puyang Sun (Renmin University); Tong Zhu (University of Dundee) |
| Abstract: | The next decade will see a pressing demand for countries to deliver a low-carbon future while at the same time ensuring they can meet an ever growing demand for energy. In this paper we investigate how he spatial distribution of endowments of energy resources across Chinese provinces influence the location of firms and their subsequent exports. Employing a pseudo-endowment approach, we measure energy abundance using three-dimensional input data at the province-sector-year level from 2006 to 2010. Our results suggest that energy abundance has a positive and significant impact on the location of industrial production and subsequent exports, especially for energy intensive sectors. On average, a 70 yuan/MWh industrial electricity price rise in a province leads to a 2.67% reduction in production share. On average, a ten percentage point change in energy abundance leads to 3.5% change in the share of production, and a 2.6% change in the share of net exports. Further analysis explores how an uneven distribution of resource reserves impacts the location of production using data on coal mine location. Our results shed light on the role that energy abundance plays in shaping a country’s industrial structure and trade patterns. |
| Keywords: | Energy abundance, geography, industry distribution, international trade |
| JEL: | F1 L6 O13 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bir:birmec:21-16&r= |
| By: | Oleg Badunenko (Brunel University); Marzio Galeotti (University of Milan); Lester C. Hunt (University of Portsmouth) |
| Abstract: | The standard approach to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) holds that as a country develops and GDP per capita grows environmental degradation initially increases but eventually it reaches a turning point where environmental degradation begins to decline. Environmental degradation takes many forms, one of them being emissions of harmful gases. According to the EKC concept, a country can reduce emissions by ‘growing’. The standard approach implicitly assumes that a country emits as little as possible for its economic development, whereas in reality, a country might emit above the best attainable level of emissions. Therefore, emissions could be reduced before and after the turning point by becoming more environmentally efficient – i.e., ‘improving’ the emissions level. This article proposes a Stochastic Environmental Kuznets Frontier (SEKF) which is estimated for CO2 emissions for OECD countries and used to benchmark each country before and after the turning point differently, thus, indicating how a country could ‘grow’ and/or ‘improve’ to reduce its CO2 emissions. Additionally, we analyse the role of the stringency of environmental policies in reducing a country’s carbon inefficiency measured by the distance from the benchmark EKC and find widespread carbon inefficiencies that could be reduced by more stringent market-based environmental policies. |
| Keywords: | Environment and growth, Environmental Kuznets Curve, CO2 emissions, Panel data, OECD countries, Stochastic frontier approach, Stochastic Environmental Kuznets Frontier, Environmental Policy Stringency |
| JEL: | O44 Q56 Q54 C13 C33 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2021.28&r= |
| By: | Jiangwei Liu; Xiaohong Huang |
| Abstract: | Research on crude oil price forecasting has attracted tremendous attention from scholars and policymakers due to its significant effect on the global economy. Besides supply and demand, crude oil prices are largely influenced by various factors, such as economic development, financial markets, conflicts, wars, and political events. Most previous research treats crude oil price forecasting as a time series or econometric variable prediction problem. Although recently there have been researches considering the effects of real-time news events, most of these works mainly use raw news headlines or topic models to extract text features without profoundly exploring the event information. In this study, a novel crude oil price forecasting framework, AGESL, is proposed to deal with this problem. In our approach, an open domain event extraction algorithm is utilized to extract underlying related events, and a text sentiment analysis algorithm is used to extract sentiment from massive news. Then a deep neural network integrating the news event features, sentimental features, and historical price features is built to predict future crude oil prices. Empirical experiments are performed on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price data, and the results show that our approach obtains superior performance compared with several benchmark methods. |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2111.09111&r= |
| By: | Philip Adams |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on modelling with the Victoria University Regional Model (VURM) of the impacts on the Australian economy and its industries and regions, of achieving net zero greenhouse emissions by 2050. This is timely, being published at the time of the Glasgow Climate Change Conference, at which Australia has committed to achieving net-zero by 2050, albeit with little detail yet about how it is to be achieved and what its impacts will be on different industries and regions. At the national level we find that despite the requirement for deep cuts in emissions, the Australian economy continues to grow strongly in terms of production (real GDP) and employment. The loss of real GDP in 2050 due to decarbonisation is projected to be around 1 per cent, or close to $30 billion (in 2021 prices). Our previous assessment in 2014 estimated a loss of 3.8 per cent, or nearly $150 billion (2021 prices). This time the negative GDP result is much smaller because the abatement task is easier due, in part, to lower than previously expected renewable generation costs and faster than previously expected penetration of electric vehicles for both light and heavy transport. For industries, decarbonisation provides an impetus to some, especially industries producing electricity from renewable generation and industries directly and indirectly associated with forestry and wood production. But, there are some industries for which zero-emissions restrains output and employment. Examples include coal-based electricity generation and coal mining. The pattern of decarbonisation effects across states and territories reflects the pattern of industry effects. Overall, real Gross State Product (GSP) is projected to fall relative to Base Case values in all states except Tasmania and South Australia. The state projected to experience the largest decline is Queensland because of an over-representation of coal mining, broadacre agriculture and coal generated electricity in its economy. For Australia as a whole, vulnerable industries noted above account for less than 4 per cent of aggregate employment. However, some sub-state regions are much more heavily dependent on the vulnerable industries. We identify 9 out of 88 sub-state (SA4) regions as vulnerable in terms of potential loss of employment. These include coal-dependent regions such as Hunter in NSW, Fitzroy in QLD and Gippsland in VIC. |
| Keywords: | CGE, Climate policy, Industries, Regions, Employment |
| JEL: | C68 Q52 Q58 R11 |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-324&r= |
| By: | Kilian, Lutz |
| Abstract: | A series of recent articles has called into question the validity of VAR models of the global market for crude oil. These studies seek to replace existing oil market models by structural VAR models of their own based on different data, different identifying assumptions, and a different econometric approach. Their main aim has been to revise the consensus in the literature that oil demand shocks are a more important determinant of oil price fluctuations than oil supply shocks. Substantial progress has been made in recent years in sorting out the pros and cons of the underlying econometric methodologies and data in this debate, and in separating claims that are supported by empirical evidence from claims that are not. The purpose of this paper is to take stock of the VAR literature on global oil markets and to synthesize what we have learned. Combining this evidence with new data and analysis, I make the case that the concerns regarding the existing VAR oil market literature have been overstated and that the results from these models are quite robust to changes in the model specification. |
| Keywords: | Elasticity,structural VAR,Bayesian inference,oil price,global real activity,oil inventories |
| JEL: | Q43 Q41 C36 C52 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:661&r= |
| By: | Sébastien Marchand (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Damien Cubizol (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Elda Nasho Ah-Pine (CleRMa - Clermont Recherche Management - ESC Clermont-Ferrand - École Supérieure de Commerce (ESC) - Clermont-Ferrand - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne); Huanxiu Guo (The Institute of Economics and Finance - Nanjing Audit University) |
| Abstract: | In 2013, the Chinese central government launched a war on air pollution. As a new and major source of information, the Internet plays an important role in diffusing environmental news emotion and shaping people's perceptions and emotions regarding the pollution. How could the government make use of the environmental news emotion as an informal regulation of pollution? The paper investigates the causal relationship between web news emotion (defined by the emotional tone of web news) and air pollution (SO2, NO2, PM2.5 and PM10) by exploiting the central government's war on air pollution. We combine daily monitoring data of air pollution at different levels (cities and counties, respectively the second and third administrative levels in China) with the GDELT database that allows us to have information on Chinese web news media (e.g. emotional tone of web news on air pollution). We find that a decrease of the emotional tone in web news (i.e. more negative emotions in the articles) can help to reduce air pollution at both city and county level. We attribute this effect to the context of China's war on air pollution in which the government makes use of the environmental news emotion as an informal regulation of pollution. |
| Keywords: | News emotion,Air pollution,Mass media,The internet,Government,China |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03448375&r= |
| By: | Ximeng Fang; Lorenz Goette; Bettina Rockenbach; Matthias Sutter; Verena Tiefenbeck; Samuel Schoeb; Thorsten Staake |
| Abstract: | Behavioral policy often aims at overcoming barriers like imperfect information and limited attention that contribute to suboptimal consumer decisions. When multiple barriers are present, a single intervention that does not overcome all barriers simultaneously may fail to unfold its full potential. We conduct a three-month randomized field experiment on energy conservation in a resource-intensive everyday activity, using two different interventions. Home energy reports fail to reduce energy use despite achieving significant knowledge gains; real-time feedback induces considerable conservation effects. Strikingly, combining both interventions boosts these effects by over 50%. This showcases how barrier multiplicity can generate complementarities in behavioral interventions. |
| Keywords: | behavioral interventions, energy conservation, inattention, real-time feedback, home energy reports, policy interactions, randomized controlled trials |
| JEL: | D12 D83 Q41 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2021_149v2&r= |
| By: | Ximeng Fang; Lorenz Goette; Bettina Rockenbach; Matthias Sutter; Verena Tiefenbeck; Samuel Schoeb; Thorsten Staake |
| Abstract: | Behavioral policy often aims at overcoming barriers like imperfect information and limited attention that contribute to suboptimal consumer decisions. When multiple barriers are present, a single intervention that does not overcome all barriers simultaneously may fail to unfold its full potential. We conduct a three-month randomized field experiment on energy conservation in a resource-intensive everyday activity, using two different interventions. Home energy reports fail to reduce energy use despite achieving significant knowledge gains; real-time feedback induces considerable conservation effects. Strikingly, combining both interventions boosts these effects by over 50%. This showcases how barrier multiplicity can generate complementarities in behavioral interventions. |
| Keywords: | behavioral interventions, energy conservation, inattention, real-time feedback, home energy reports, policy interactions, randomized controlled trials |
| JEL: | D12 D83 Q41 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2020_149v1&r= |
| By: | Nathalie Lazaric (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur); Mira Toumi (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the complementarity among different treatments which involved "boosts" (provision of information) and "goals" (ambitious or modest goals) by means of a field experiment conducted in the Principality of Monaco between December 2018 and May 2019. We collected data from 77 households in four groups: ambitious electricity reduction goal combined with information (Treatment 1), modest electricity reduction goal combined with information (Treatment 2), only information (Treatment 3), and a control group (CG). Treatments 1 and 2 increased the chances of reduced electricity consumption. We show that a modest, more realistic electricity saving goal when combined with a "boost" generates better electricity conservation performance (T2). We explore the link between behavioral strategies and the household's concern for the environment in the context of the new ecological paradigm (NEP). Our results show that treatments T1 and T2 are efficient for reducing electricity consumption only in households with high levels of environmental concern; those whose level of concern about the environment is low will not respond to any of the behavioral interventions. We provide some recommendations for the implementation of behavioral tools and "boosts". |
| Keywords: | Boost,nudges,goal setting,electricity consumption,field experiment,environmental profile |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03402212&r= |
| By: | Echeverría, Lucía (University of Zaragoza); Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | Carpooling is a sustainable daily mobility mode, implying significant reductions in energy consumption and CO2 emissions, although it remains an uncommon practice. With the aim of stimulating this green transportation mode, this paper focus on understanding why certain individuals will agree to share a car to a common destination, apart from the obvious environmental benefit in emissions. It first describes the profile of users and then explores the relationship between this transportation mode and the participants' well-being. To that end, we have selected two countries, the UK and the US, where the use of cars represents a high proportion of daily commuting. We use the UK Time Use Survey (UKTUS) from 2014-2015 and the Well-Being Module of the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) from 2010-2012-2013 to identify which groups in the population are more likely to pool their cars, and with whom those individuals enjoy carpooling more. Results indicate that individuals with certain socio-demographic characteristics and occupations are more likely to commute by carpooling, but the profile seems to be country-specific. Furthermore, our evidence reveals a positive relationship between carpooling and well-being during commuting. |
| Keywords: | carpooling, green mobility, user profiles, subjective well-being |
| JEL: | R40 J22 |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14736&r= |
| By: | Cheng, Zhiming (University of New South Wales); Guo, Liwen (University of New South Wales); Smyth, Russell (Monash University); Tani, Massimiliano (University of New South Wales) |
| Abstract: | We use data from China Family Panel Studies to examine the effects of being a child or adolescent in China's Great Famine on the likelihood of being in energy poverty in adulthood. We find that a one unit increase in the intensity of the Famine, measured by the number of excess deaths per 100 people, is associated with a 1.8-3.5 percentage points decline in the probability of being in energy poverty in adulthood, depending on the exact specification and measure of energy poverty. We find that personal income is a channel through which being a child or adolescent during the Great Famine affects the proclivity to be in energy poverty later in life. These findings are robust to alternative ways of measuring childhood adversity and energy poverty. |
| Keywords: | childhood adversity, energy poverty, China, the Chinese Great Famine |
| JEL: | J13 I32 Q41 |
| Date: | 2021–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14809&r= |
| By: | Sofia Teives Henriques (University of Porto, CEFUP, Portugal); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR); Xanthi Tsoukli (University of Bamberg, Germany); Christian Vedel (University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Economic historians have debated the importance of energy for economic development. Energy economists would argue that energy systems need to be adaptable in the face of shocks. In this light, we consider the case of Denmark, a country which was almost entirely dependent on imports of coal, and where a long coastline made imports, largely from the UK, cheap and available. Towards the end of the First World War, however, and well into the 1920s, coal imports were cut off or difficult to obtain. We exploit detailed microlevel data from butter factories, covering the period 1900-28. We find that firms were able to adapt and make use of alternative fuels, notably peat, although its availability varied across the country. Employing a difference-in-differences approach, we find significant productivity advantages for creameries closer to available peat fields in the wake of the coal shortage. |
| Keywords: | Coal, dairying, Denmark, energy, geography, peat, productivity |
| JEL: | N54 O13 Q40 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0220&r= |
| By: | Xin Sheng (Lord Ashcroft International Business School, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, United Kingdom); Won Joong Kim (Department of Economics, Konkuk University, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | Utilising both high frequency (daily) and monthly data this study analyses the effects of oil price volatility on financial stress with various measures. The study places a special focus on comparing the pattern of these effects during the Great Recession period and the COVID-19 recession period. Using the local projection approach, the paper finds that oil price volatility has a positive and persistent effect on financial stress. However, the magnitude and the degree of persistency of oil price volatility impacts on financial stress are much greater for the Great Recession period than for the COVID-19 recession period. A possible explanation for this result would be that the COVID-19 is better thought of as a “natural disaster†in which companies in stress were not being mismanaged. Another explanation would be that active intervention by the government through monetary and fiscal channels reduces the sensitivity of financial instability to oil price volatility during the COVID-19 period. |
| Keywords: | Oil price volatility, financial stress index (FSI), local projection, impulse response, global financial crisis (GFC), COVID-19 recession |
| JEL: | G01 G10 Q41 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202184&r= |
| By: | Gupta, Disha |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae21:315001&r= |
| By: | Ms. Deniz O Igan; Mr. Divya Kirti; Dalya Elmalt |
| Abstract: | As climate change looms larger, many look to sustainable investing that incorporates environmental, social, and governance (ESG) concerns as part of the way forward. To assess scope for ESG-conscious investing to achieve climate change goals, we explore the link between emissions growth and ESG scores using firm-level data for the largest emitters around the world. Discouragingly, our analysis uncovers at best a weak relationship: firms with better ESG scores do display somewhat slower emissions growth but this link is substantially attenuated and no longer statistically significant if we limit attention to within-country or within-firm variation. Our findings suggest limited scope for sustainable investing strategies conditioned solely on ESG indicators to meaningfully help mitigate climate change and, more broadly, underscore the need to continue to build consensus towards effective economy-wide policies to address climate change. |
| Keywords: | climate change goal; ESG score; emissions growth; ESG indicator; climate change mitigation; Corporate social responsibility; Climate change; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate finance; Global |
| Date: | 2021–04–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2021/112&r= |
| By: | Mark Budolfson (Rutgers University [Newark] - Rutgers - Rutgers University System); Francis Dennig (Yale-NUS College); Frank Errickson (Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs - Princeton University); Simon Feindt (MCC - Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change - PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research); Maddalena Ferranna (Harvard School of Public Health); Marc Fleurbaey (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); David Klenert (JRC - European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Seville]); Ulrike Kornek (Kiel University); Kevin Kuruc (OU - University of Oklahoma); Aurélie Méjean (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Wei Peng (Penn State - Pennsylvania State University - Penn State System); Noah Scovronick (Emory University [Atlanta, GA]); Dean Spears (University of Texas at Austin [Austin]); Fabian Wagner (IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg]); Stéphane Zuber (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | We find that if all countries adopt the necessary uniform global carbon tax and then return the revenues to their citizens on an equal per capita basis, it will be possible to meet a 2 °C target while also increasing wellbeing, reducing inequality and alleviating poverty. These results indicate that it is possible for a society to implement strong climate action without compromising goals for equity and development. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-03462781&r= |
| By: | Hinsche, Isabelle Cathérine |
| Abstract: | As part of the Next Generation EU (NGEU) program, the European Commission has pledged to issue up to EUR 250 billion of the NGEU bonds as green bonds, in order to confirm their commitment to sustainable finance and to support the transition towards a greener Europe. Thereby, the EU is not only entering the green bond market, but also set to become one of the biggest green bond issuers. Consequently, financial market participants are eager to know what to expect from the EU as a new green bond issuer and whether a negative green bond premium, a so-called Greenium, can be expected for the NGEU green bonds. This research paper formulates an expectation in regards to a potential Greenium for the NGEU green bonds, by conducting an interview with 15 sustainable finance experts and analyzing the public green bond market from September 2014 until June 2021, with respect to a potential green bond premium and its underlying drivers. The regression results confirm the existence of a significant Greenium (-0.7 bps) in the public green bond market and that the Greenium increases for supranational issuers with AAA rating, such as the EU. Moreover, the green bond premium is influenced by issuer sector and credit rating, but issue size and modified duration have no significant effect. Overall, the evaluated expert interviews and regression analysis lead to an expected Greenium for the NGEU green bonds of up to -4 bps, with the potential to further increase in the secondary market. |
| Keywords: | Sustainable Finance,Green Bonds,Greenium,Next Generation EU,EU Bonds,Environmental,Social and Governance (ESG),Sustainable Investing,Green Finance |
| JEL: | C23 G12 G14 G21 G23 G28 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:663&r= |
| By: | Benjamin Jones (University College London); Viet Nguyen-Tien (London School of Economics); Robert J R Elliott (University of Birmingham) |
| Abstract: | The emergence of a mass market for Electric vehicles (EVs) offers considerable development opportunities for countries that have abundant resources of cobalt, nickel, lithium, copper, aluminium, and manganese. Not surprisingly, developing countries have proposed ambitious plans to expand their domestic EV raw material sectors. However, because of the complexity, opacity, and volatility in these industries it is important that the implications of the changing demand for the critical materials needed by the EV global value chain and carefully understood. One observation from the resource curse literature is that countries need to strengthen their institutions if they are to mitigate the risk of poorly directed, often excessively procyclical, investment. In this paper we draw on results from the CoMIT model (Jones et al. 2020) to help analyse the outlook for EV demand and associated raw material usage paying particular attention to the key drivers and sensitivities required to track future market transformations. We assess key fiscal, regulatory, environmental, and institution reform priorities and the market barriers that may prevent successful domestic resource mobilisation in these resource chains. |
| Keywords: | Electric vehicle, global value chains, critical materials, resource mobilization |
| JEL: | F63 F64 L62 L61 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bir:birmec:21-15&r= |
| By: | Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou |
| Abstract: | Predictions of oil prices reaching $100 per barrel during the winter of 2021/22 have raised fears of persistently high inflation and rising inflation expectations for years to come. We show that these concerns have been overstated. A $100 oil scenario of the type discussed by many observers, would only briefly raise monthly headline inflation, before fading rather quickly. However, the short-run effects on headline inflation would be sizable. For example, on a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation would increase by 1.8 percentage points at the end of 2021 under this scenario, but only by 0.4 percentage points at the end of 2022. In contrast, the impact on measures of core inflation such as trimmed mean PCE inflation is only 0.4 and 0.3 percentage points in 2021 and 2022, respectively. These estimates already account for any increases in inflation expectations under the scenario. The peak response of the 1-year household inflation expectation would be 1.2 percentage points, while that of the 5-year expectation would be 0.2 percentage points. |
| Keywords: | Scenario; inflation; expectation; oil price; gasoline price; household survey; core; pandemic; recovery |
| JEL: | E31 E52 Q43 |
| Date: | 2021–11–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:93432&r= |
| By: | David Grover (GEM - Grenoble Ecole de Management); Swaroop Rao (GEM - Grenoble Ecole de Management, IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc) |
| Abstract: | Article 6 of the Paris Agreement provides for the creation of a successor to the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), the parameters of which are currently being operationalised. This paper uses the broad literature on the relationship between general foreign direct investment (FDI) and inequality in FDI host countries to develop expectations about the likely impact of past and future international mitigation investment on inequality, unemployment and poverty outcomes. Using 2000 and 2010 census data for small geographic areas in Brazil, we compare the change in those outcomes in areas that experienced CDM project activity to the same in areas that did not, using a difference-indifference approach. We find that areas with CDM project activity experienced improvements in those outcomes, which appear to be driven by project types that are associated with 'primary' sector activity. Including measurement and reporting procedures for these broader sustainable development outcomes in the rulebook of a post-2020 agreement could be favourable to the interests of both developed and developing countries. |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03404189&r= |
| By: | Kapeller, Jakob; Leitch, Stuart; Wildauer, Rafae |
| Abstract: | This policy study asks to what extent large-scale public investment efforts could be a viable tool to provide the necessary infrastructure to break Europe's dependency on fossil fuel and carbon emissions more broadly. We estimate semi-structural VAR models for the EU27. These are used to study the impact of permanent as well as 5-year long public investment programmes. Three key findings emerge: First, government investment multipliers for the EU27 are large and range from 5.12 to 5.25. Second, debt-to-GDP ratios are likely to fall in response to the strong economic impulse generated by additional public investment spending. The study therefore classifies additional public investment spending in the EU27 as sustainable fiscal policy. Third, single country investment initiatives will likely lead to smaller economic expansions when compared to coordinated EU-wide investment, due to Europe's strong intra-member state trade flows. A coordinated approach to fiscal policy is thus substantially more effective not only when it comes to delivering network-dependent infrastructure (rail, grid) but also with respect to the economic stimulus it creates. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Policy,Sovereign Debt |
| JEL: | E62 H63 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifsowp:16&r= |
| By: | Stergiou, Eirini; Rigas, Nikos; Kounetas, Konstantinos |
| Abstract: | European industries are under pressure regarding their environmental performance and productivity growth. The current energy crisis offsets governments efforts to achieve carbon neutrality while removing significant degrees of freedom in terms of firm's competitiveness. This paper studies environmental productivity and its components at a European industrial level using a dataset of 13 industries of the manufacturing sector from 27 European countries over the 1995-2014 period. Our results point out that industrial environmental productivity has deteriorated across Europe with best practice change being the main contributor. In addition, referring to the technological leaders in Europe, the findings point out that low tend to follow the middle-high technology industries. Finally, the non-convergence hypothesis and the creation of discrete clubs for the productivity index case and its components are supported. |
| Keywords: | European Industries; Metafrontier Malmquist Luenberger index; Convergence; Technological heterogeneity |
| JEL: | C61 D24 L60 Q43 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110780&r= |
| By: | Lionel Fontagné (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Erica Perego; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | Pandemics, global warming, food security, ageing, depletion of certain raw materials... Our economies are confronted with global problems, calling for the long term and raising intergenerational questions. To guide economic policies, it is therefore essential to have a coherent framework for thinking. The MaGE (Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy) model, developed by CEPII, makes it possible to draw the basic trends of the world economy up to 2050. If we assume that the current growth and technological catch-up dynamics will continue, and taking into account demographic dynamics, the balance of economic power will be strongly transformed over the next generation. Above all, energy consumption is expected to continue to grow at a sustained rate, up to a doubling, despite efforts to improve energy efficiency. Ambitious policies to decarbonise our economies will then be necessary to make the prospects for economic growth sustainable. |
| Abstract: | Pandémies, réchauffement climatique, sécurité alimentaire, vieillissement, épuisement de certaines matières premières… Nos économies sont confrontées à des problèmes globaux, convoquant le long terme et posant des questions intergénérationnelles. Pour guider les politiques économiques, il est dès lors indispensable de disposer d'un cadre de réflexion cohérent. Le modèle MaGE (pour Macroeconometrics of the Global Economy), développé par le CEPII, permet de dessiner les tendances de fond de l'économie mondiale à l'horizon 2050. Si l'on suppose que les dynamiques de croissance et de rattrapage technologique actuelles vont se poursuivre, et compte tenu des dynamiques démographiques, l'équilibre des puissances économiques sera fortement transformé au cours de la génération à venir. Surtout, la consommation d'énergie devrait continuer de croître à un rythme soutenu jusqu'à doubler, en dépit des efforts en matière d'efficience énergétique. Des politiques ambitieuses de décarbonation de nos économies seront alors nécessaires pour rendre soutenables les perspectives de croissance économique. |
| Keywords: | Growth models,Long-term growth,Economic projections,Energy consumption,Modèles de croissance,Croissance à long-terme,Projections économiques,Consommation d'énergie |
| Date: | 2021–11–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-03436070&r= |
| By: | Eloi Laurent (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | On December 11 2019, the European Commission released a communication outlining a blueprint for a "European Green Deal". To clarify its scope and limits, this Policy brief offers a critical examination of the main concepts that underpin and frame it: carbon neutrality, decoupling, resource efficiency, inclusive growth and just transition. [First paragraph] |
| Keywords: | European Green Deal,European Commission,Main concepts |
| Date: | 2020–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03403011&r= |
| By: | Cardenas, J. C.; Jaramillo, F; León, D; López, M.; Rodríguez, M; Zuleta, H |
| Abstract: | The economic crisis from the Covid-19 pandemic has generated a fall in tax revenues and an increase in the need for public spending in most economies throughout the world. This situation has led to a substantial increase in the sovereign debt levels and has dramatically reduced the fiscal space of governments. For upper- middle-income countries (UMICs), current access to financing is limited and this can potentially limit the space for climate action in the short and medium run. However, delaying climate action can generate a negative signal on fiscal sustainability due to the physical and transition risks of climate change. Unsustainable production practices will result in a deterioration of the productive capacity of natural assets reducing potential tax income. Simultaneously there will be a stronger need for public spending to face the future damages associated to greenhouse gases emissions. Therefore, in order to address the current crisis, we need an integral approach that considers the climate crisis as a challenge with a high degree of urgency. For this approach to be feasible, sufficient international climate finance needs to be available, and it should help to steer relief and recovery efforts into a direction in which these are also compatible with climate targets. In this document, we propose a sovereign debt negotiation scheme in which the conditions of the debt depend on the climate policies undertaken by the debtor countries. Likewise, we point out that the feasibility of beneficial agreements for debtors and the implementation of good climate policies depend positively on the size of the debt and each country's potential to affect the current trend of climate change. For these reasons, the formation of coalitions of debtor countries can be a key factor for debt relief and the implementation of climate policies. |
| Keywords: | Covid 19, Climate Change, Sovereign Debt, Coalitions, Climate Policy |
| JEL: | D62 D71 F34 G23 H63 Q50 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2021–11–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000092:019732&r= |
| By: | Vatsa, Puneet; Ma, Wanglin |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2021–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae21:315149&r= |
| By: | Gözlügöl, Alperen A. |
| Abstract: | Climate change is one of the highest-ranking issues on the political and social agenda. Vulnerabilities of the world ecosystem laid bare by the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential damage for the human and business life made the need for urgent action clear once again. Corporations are one of the main actors that will play a major role in the decarbonisation of the economy. They need to put forward a net zero strategy and targets, transitioning to net-zero by 2050. Yet, an important but rather overlooked stakeholder group in the sustainability debates can pose a significant stumbling block in this transition: employees. Although climate action has huge benefits by ameliorating adverse environmental events and is expected to have overall positive impact on employment, net zero transition in companies, especially in certain sectors and regions, will cause substantial adverse employment effects for the workforce. This has the potential to slow down or even derail the necessary climate action in companies. In this regard, just transition is a promising concept, which calls for a swift and decisive climate action in corporations while taking account of and mitigating adverse effects for their workforce. If well implemented, it can accelerate net zero transition in companies. This potential clash of environmental (E) and social (S) aspects of ESG agenda, materialised in the companies' net zero transition, and its potential remedy, just transition, have important implications for corporate governance and finance, especially for directors' duties & executive remuneration, sustainability disclosures, institutional investors' engagement and green finance. |
| Keywords: | climate change,sustainability,ESG,employees,workforce,net zero transition,corporate governance,institutional investors,green finance |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:325&r= |
| By: | Ferguson, Beth; Sanguinetti, Angela PhD |
| Abstract: | Micromobility has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, traffic congestion, and air pollution, particularly when replacing private vehicle use and working in conjunction with public transit for first- and last-mile travel. The design of the built environment in and around public transit stations plays a key role in the integration of public transit and micromobility. This research presents a case study of rail stations in the San Francisco Bay Area, which are in the operation zone of seven shared micromobility operators. Nineteen stations and their surroundings were surveyed to inventory design features that could enable or constrain use of micromobility for first- and last-mile access. Shared mobility service characteristics, crime records, and connections to underserved communities were also documented. An interactive Bay Area Micromobility Transit ArcGIS map tool was created to aid analysis and provide a useful resource to stakeholders. The map shows layers such as train stations, bike lanes, bike share kiosks, and micromobility operation zones that vary between Oakland, Emeryville, Berkeley, San Francisco, and San Jose. Key design solutions were identified based on the findings, including protected bike lanes, increased shared bike and scooter fleet size and service area, and clear signage indicating bike rack parking corral and docking points. |
| Keywords: | Architecture, Micromobility, shared mobility, public transit, rail transit stations, accessibility, urban design, digital mapping, case studies |
| Date: | 2021–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5gb6h1j5&r= |
| By: | Passmore, Reid; Watkins, Kari E.; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | Bicycle transportation is often excluded from travel demand and route choice models. Even when bicycle modes are incorporated, models may use a simplified network that does not contain all streets and bicycle paths that a cyclist could feasibly take. These models may also only use trip distance and travel time when modelling a cycling trip; research on revealed route choice preferences of cyclists has shown that cyclist routing is influenced by other factors, such as the presence of a bicycle facility or road elevation gain. The City of Atlanta plans to triple its mileage of protected bicycle infrastructure in the next two years, and needs a tool to be able to plan and prioritize these projects based on the estimated effects on bicycle accessibility, bicycle mode share, energy usage, and emissions, to make the best use of the limited funding. The objective of this project is to develop this analytical tool and an associated network that includes all possible bicycle paths (i.e., roads, bicycle paths, cut-through paths, etc.) for a 12 square mile study area in the City of Atlanta that can be expanded later to the Atlanta Metro area. The tool, BikewaySim, is a shortest path calculator that uses Dijkstra’s shortest path algorithm to find both the preferred route from any origin to any destination within the study area using lowest travel time and lowest total impedance cost. The BikewaySim network was created by conflating network data from the Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC), OpenStreetMap (OSM), and HERE into a whole road and pathway for BikewaySim and future use in the ARC’s activity-based travel demand model. The methods for conflating networks and developing the shortest path model are publicly available resources. The final model is destined to include all viable pathways and incorporate cyclist preferences for use in planning and modelling bicycle travel for research, planning, and design. The framework allows other organizations and researchers to contribute to the project over time. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Bicycle route choice, network conflation, bicycle facility preference |
| Date: | 2021–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt23n9389j&r= |
| By: | Céline Antonin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Entre début mars et fin avril 2020, les barils de Brent et de Western Texas Intermediate ont perdu respectivement 71 % et 73 % de leur valeur en dollars. Deux chocs concomitants sont à l'origine de cette dégringolade. D'abord, le choc de demande lié à la crise du Covid-19 a commencé par la baisse de la croissance chinoise dès la fin du mois de janvier 2020 et a été amplifié par l'extension mondiale des mesures de confinement à partir de la mi-mars. Parallèlement, un choc d'offre, né des dissensions au sein de l'OPEP+, est intervenu début mars, aggravant le déséquilibre entre offre et demande. Les pays de l'OPEP+ ont fini par signer un accord historique de baisse de production de près de 10 %, en vigueur à partir du 1er mai 2020. Pourtant, cette baisse de production est apparue insuffisante pour soutenir les prix du pétrole et le décalage entre offre et demande a continué de grever le niveau des prix. [Premier paragraphe] |
| Keywords: | Pétrole,COVID-19,Prix,Baisse de production |
| Date: | 2020–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03403044&r= |
| By: | Luis Guillermo Becerra-Valbuena (PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jorge A. Bonilla (ULA - Universidad de Los Andes [Venezuela]) |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the literature on air pollution and health by assessing an additional channel, the effect of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on health. Currently, there is a vast literature on the effects of urban pollution on health. Our research, unlike other studies, jointly investigates the effects of pollution, ENSO and local weather on health. On the one hand, ENSO manifests itself as an extreme climatic shock that follows certain seasonality and influences weather. It may also have an impact on floods, droughts and agriculture inducing changes in food markets or a loss of household income, which also affect health. On the other hand, health outcomes are affected by other factors which follow separate mechanisms to the previous ones. Therefore, pollutant impacts on health may be interpreted as separate effects from other shocks mediated through ENSO. Using a database from 1998 to 2015 on air quality and vital statistics for Bogotá, and ENSO information, we find that across several specifications, ENSO affects birth weight and the probability of low birth weight after separating pollution and classical local weather impacts. Interestingly, the effect on birth weight of ENSO are several times larger than the impacts of pollution. Being exposed to ENSO may decrease birth weight up to 1.3%, while an increase of 1 ppb of SO2 or 1 µg/m3 of PM25 might reduce birth weight up to 0.3% or 0.14%, respectively. From a policy point of view, these results are relevant because regardless of the measure of pollution that we employ, the amount of the impacts exhibited by climatic shocks via ENSO events dominate. |
| Keywords: | Climate change,Health,ENSO Index,El Niño,La Niña,weather,Pollution,Bogotá |
| Date: | 2021–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-03429482&r= |
| By: | Eleni Theodorou; Spyros Spyrou; Georgina Christou |
| Abstract: | This research paper explores young people’s climate action in Cyprus in light of the global mobilization of children and youth and the emergence of the international Fridays for Future movement. The study on which the paper draws explored in particular the emergence and role of ‘Youth for Climate Cyprus’ in climate action on the island through the use of ethnographic and other qualitative approaches including ethnographic observation, in-depth individual interviews and focus group discussions as well as textual analysis of social media posts and local media coverage of youth climate activism. The paper examines the meaning that young activists make of their activism on climate change, the forms their activism takes, and the means through which they organize and mobilize around the cause of climate change including their strategies for gaining legitimacy. |
| Keywords: | Youth climate activism, youth social movements, climate change, climate justice, Cyprus |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hel:greese:166&r= |
| By: | Arogundade, Sodiq; Hassan, Adewale; Bila, Santos |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of diaspora income on the ecological footprint of 22 countries African countries. Methodologically, we used the Driscoll-Kraay (1998) fixed-effect model, fixed effect instrumental variable regression, Machado and Silva (2019) panel quantile regression, and Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality test. There are four main important findings from this empirical study: (1) diaspora income has a negative and statistical impact on ecological degradation, (2) financial development plays a crucial role in mitigating the environmental impact of diaspora income, and African countries must achieve an annual estimated threshold of financial development before they could reap the environmental quality impact of diaspora income, (3) the role of financial development in reducing the environmental degradation impact of diaspora income is less for higher polluting countries in Africa, (4) unidirectional causality from diaspora income to ecological footprint. In ensuring a sustainable environment, we recommend that African governments provide a tax credit to the recipient of the diaspora income who invests in environment-friendly technologies. |
| Keywords: | Diaspora income, Driscoll-Kraay fixed-effect model, fixed effect instrumental variable regression, Machado and Silva (2019) MMQR, Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality test, Financial development, Ecological footprint, Africa |
| JEL: | F64 Q5 Q56 |
| Date: | 2021–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110819&r= |