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on Energy Economics |
By: | Alexandra-Anca Purcel (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne) |
Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of output, urbanization, energy intensity, and renewable energy on aggregated and sector-specific CO2 emissions for a rich sample of developing states. We employ the recently developed GMM panel VAR technique, which allows us to tackle the potential endogeneity issue and capture both the current and future impact of indicators on CO2 via the impulse-response analysis. On the one hand, robust to several alternative specifications, the findings indicate that output, urbanization, and energy intensity increase the aggregated CO2 emissions, while renewable energy exhibits an opposite effect. Moreover, regarding the CO2 responsiveness to output and urbanization shocks, the pattern may suggest that these countries are likely to attain the threshold that would trigger a decline in CO2 emissions. We also reveal heterogeneities related to both countries' economic development and Kyoto Protocol ratification/ascension status. On the other hand, the sectoral analysis unveils that the transportation, buildings, and non-combustion sector tend to contribute more to increasing the future CO2 levels. Overall, our study may provide useful insights concerning environmental sustainability prospects in developing states. |
Keywords: | CO2 emissions,urbanization,energy efficiency,renewable energy,developing countries,environmental Kuzents curve,GMM panel VAR |
Date: | 2020 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03182341&r= |
By: | Jorge M. Uribe (Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, Spain; Riskcenter, University of Barcelona, Spain.); Stephania Mosquera-López (Department of Finance, Universidad EAFIT, Colombia.) |
Abstract: | We study the transmission of natural gas price shocks to electricity prices across different scenarios of electricity generation for thirteen European electricity markets. To this end, we propose a statistic based on the estimation of conditional quantile regression models, which allows us to identify the most vulnerable countries in the region to variations in the global price of natural gas, under scenarios of generation distress. We point out to market integration and different electricity generation mixes as the main factors underlying our results. Our main contribution is the analysis of the proposed static for the case of European markets from a comparative perspective, which helps to guide and support timely policy responses in European countries, aiming to isolate the most vulnerable consumers and firms from dramatic electricity price increments as those observed in the first three quarters of 2021. The most vulnerable countries according to our indicator are Portugal and Spain, while the most resilient are Italy and Finland. |
Keywords: | Quantile regression, Power markets, Energy crises, Energy shortages, Gas markets. JEL classification: Q40, L94, L95, C22. |
Date: | 2021–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202117&r= |
By: | Damien Dussaux; Francesco Vona (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Antoine Dechezleprêtre |
Abstract: | Concerns about carbon offshoring, namely the relocation of dirty tasks abroad, undermine the efficiency of domestic carbon mitigation policies and might prevent governments from adopting more ambitious climate policies. This paper is the first to analyse the extent and determinants of carbon offshoring at the firm level. We combine information on carbon emissions, imports, imported emissions and environmental policy stringency based on a unique dataset of 5,000 French manufacturing firms observed from 1997 to 2014. We estimate the impact of imported emissions on firm's domestic emissions and emission intensity using a shift-share instrumental variable strategy. We do not find compelling evidence of an impact of carbon offshoring on total emissions, but show that emission efficiency improves in companies offshoring emissions abroad, suggesting that offshored emissions are compensated by an increase in production scale. The effect is economically meaningful with a 10% increase in carbon offshoring causing a 4% decline in emission intensity. However, this effect is twice as small as that of domestic energy prices and, importantly, does not appear to be driven by a pollution haven motive. |
Keywords: | Carbon offshoring,CO2 emissions,Emissions intensity,Import competition,Energy prices |
Date: | 2020–01–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03403069&r= |
By: | Musakwa, Mercy T; Odhiambo, Nicholas M |
Abstract: | This study investigated the impact of energy consumption on human development in South Africa, using annual data from 1990 to 2019. The study used disaggregated data on energy measures namely: oil products consumption; electricity consumption; renewable energy consumption; natural gas; coal and lignite; and total energy consumption at an aggregate level. Human Development Index (HDI) was used as a measure of human development. By employing autoregressive distributed lag bounds test to cointegration and error correction model, the study found the impact of energy consumption on human development to be positive in the short run when renewable energy was used as a proxy, but insignificant in the long run. When oil products, natural gas and total energy were used as proxies for energy, a negative impact was confirmed in the short run, while an insignificant impact was confirmed in the long run. When electricity, coal and lignite were used as proxies for energy, an insignificant impact was confirmed, irrespective of the time frame considered. The results revealed that the positive impact of renewable energy on human development is not big enough to offset the negative impact of other energy sources. This suggests that South Africa has to continue to expand renewable energy if a positive impact of energy on human development is to be realised. |
Keywords: | human development; energy consumption; South Africa; human development index; autoregressive distributed lag |
Date: | 2021–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uza:wpaper:28233&r= |
By: | Boer, Lukas; Pescatori, Andrea; Stuermer, Martin |
Abstract: | The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks with an ``anchor'' variable, estimate supply elasticities, and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total production value of these four metals alone would rise more than four-fold to USD 13 trillion for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the estimated total value of crude oil production. These metals could potentially become as important to the global economy as crude oil. |
Keywords: | Conditional forecasts, structural vector autoregression, structural scenario analysis, energy transition, metals, fossil fuels, prices, climate change |
JEL: | C32 C53 E37 L72 Q3 Q4 Q5 |
Date: | 2021–10–24 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110364&r= |
By: | J. Barrera-Santana; Gustavo A. Marrero; Luis A. Puch; Antonia Díaz |
Abstract: | In this paper we investigate the path to the green transition in Europe. In so doing, we implement an empirical model of dynamic panel data on a sample of sixteen Western European countries over the period 1980 to 2019. The model is consistent with various features of neo-classical growth theory incorporating energy use. Our focus is on the short-run determinants of carbon emissions within that set of countries. We provide evidence that the relationship between economic activity and CO2 emissions is strong in economies where economic booms depend on energy-intensive sectors. Also, the mitigating role of renewable energy technologies is key when energy intensity rebounds. These circumstances may constitute a challenge for the climate transition goals targeted in the EU’s Recovery Plan, whose main objective at this very moment is to mitigate the economic and social impact of the coronavirus pandemic. |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econwp:_65&r= |
By: | Valeriya Azarova; Mathias Mier |
Abstract: | Bottom-up optimization models neglect the inclusion of investment behavior We introduce three investor types that differ in their investment cost specifications, financing costs, and discounting. This leads to a substantially different pace and rate of adoption for specific generation technologies. For the European power market, 2050 wind (nuclear, gas-CCS) capacity ranges from 624 to 1,113 GW (84 to 194 GW, 383 to 502 GW), depending on the respective investor type. Accounting for type heterogeneity leads to 2050 wind (nuclear, gas-CCS) capacity of 912 GW (140 GW, 428 GW). Technologyspecific financing cost increase 2050 wind (nuclear, gas-CCS) capacity even to 1,069 GW (80 GW, 449 GW). Hence, our results confirm that accounting for more differentiated picture of electricity market investment with heterogeneous investor types can provide a starting point for tailor-made energy policies, thereby increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of public policies fostering the decarbonization of power markets. |
Keywords: | Investment behavior, investor type, investment cost, energy system model, bottom-up optimization model, power market model |
JEL: | C61 C68 Q40 Q41 |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ifowps:_362&r= |
By: | Minwoo Hyun; Aleh Cherp; Jessica Jewell; Yeong Jae Kim; Jiyong Eom |
Abstract: | Decarbonisation of the power sector requires feasible strategies for rapid phase-out of fossil fuels and expansion of low-carbon sources. This study develops and uses a model with an explicit account of power plant stocks to explore plausible decarbonization scenarios of the power sector in the Republic of Korea through 2050 and 2060. The results show that achieving zero emissions from the power sector by the mid-century requires either ambitious expansion of renewables backed by gas-fired generation equipped with carbon capture and storage or significant expansion of nuclear power. The first strategy implies replicating and maintaining for decades maximum growth rates of solar power achieved in leading countries and becoming an early and ambitious adopter of the CCS technology. The alternative expansion of nuclear power has historical precedents in Korea and other countries but may not be acceptable in the current political and regulatory environment. |
Date: | 2021–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2111.02872&r= |
By: | Obayelu, Abiodun; Ogunmola, Omotoso; Obayelu, Oluwakemi; Adeyemi, Oluwatosin |
Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
Date: | 2021–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae21:315394&r= |
By: | Kosch, Mirjam; Abrell, Jan |
JEL: | H23 |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc21:242378&r= |
By: | Samuel Kortum (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); David A. Weisbach (The University of Chicago Law School) |
Abstract: | We derive the optimal unilateral policy in a general equilibrium model of trade and climate change where one region of the world imposes a climate policy and the rest of the world does not. A climate policy in one region shifts activities—extraction, production, and consumption—in the other region. The optimal policy trades off the costs of these distortions. The optimal policy can be implemented through: (i) a nominal tax on extraction at a rate equal to the global marginal harm from emissions, (ii) a tax on imports of energy and goods, and a rebate of taxes on exports of energy but not goods, both at a lower rate than the extraction tax rate, and (iii) a goods-speciï¬ c export subsidy. The policy controls leakage by combining supply-side and demand-side taxes to control the price of energy in the non-taxing region. It exploits international trade to expand the reach of the climate policy. We calibrate and simulate the model to illustrate how the optimal policy compares to more traditional policies such as extraction, production, and consumption taxes and combinations of those taxes. The simulations show that combinations of supply-side and demand-side taxes are much better than simpler policies and can perform nearly as well as the optimal policy. |
Keywords: | Carbon taxes, Border adjustments, Leakage, Climate change |
JEL: | F18 H23 Q54 |
Date: | 2021–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2311&r= |
By: | Valeriya Azarova; Jed Cohen; Andrea Kollmann; Johannes Reichl |
Abstract: | A crucial part of the recently adopted “Fit for 55” package of the European Commission is devoted to the transition to a greener energy system. More specifically, the amendment to the Renewable Energy Directive sets up an increased target to produce 40% of energy from renewable sources by 2030. Hence, encouraging private investments in renewable generation capacity is becoming even more imperative to reach the ambitious climate-neutrality goals of the EU and to make the European Green Deal a reality. In this context, a pertinent design and endorsement of community renewable energy (CRE) projects may play a crucial role. A recent study based on a survey administered across 31 European nations, shows that there is high interest across Europe in CRE investment models, with 79% of respondents choosing to invest in at least one of the eight investment scenarios shown to them. Yet, operational details matter: e.g. administration through a local community organization is preferred to being administrated by an utility company. On top of that, highlighting local economic benefits, such as job creation from CRE projects, improves participation more so than highlighting general environmental benefits. |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:econpb:_37&r= |
By: | Jamie L. Cross; Bao H. Nguyen; Trung Duc Tran |
Abstract: | Contemporary structural models of the global market for crude oil jointly specify precautionary and speculative demand as a composite shock, known as storage demand shocks, due to difficulties in identifying these distinct demand components. This difficulty arises because shifts in the underlying expectations are latent and operate through similar transmission mechanisms. In this paper, we resolve this identification problem and for the first time examine the relative effects of these two shocks, in addition to more conventional demand and supply shocks, on the global price of crude oil. Overall, we find that uncertainty driven precautionary demand for crude oil is, on average, the primary driver of fluctuations in the real price of oil that has previously been associated with the composite storage demand shock. Historically, we find that these shocks also shaped the real oil price dynamics since the 1970s. Precautionary demand for oil was the primary driver of the oil price spike in the 1979 oil crisis, the second most important driver of the price decline in the Great Recession of 2008 and provided significant contributions towards the price dynamics during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980, the Persian Gulf War of 1990, the collapse of OPEC in 1985. Speculative demand for oil largely shaped the oil price dynamics around the collapse of OPEC and contributed towards the oil price spike in the Persian Gulf War and the oil price decline of 2014. |
Keywords: | Oil price uncertainty, Oil market, SVAR, Narrative sign restrictions |
Date: | 2021–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bny:wpaper:0102&r= |
By: | Raphael Calel; Jonathan Colmer; Antoine Dechezleprêtre; Matthieu Glachant |
Abstract: | We develop and implement a new method for identifying wasted subsidies, and use it to provide systematic evidence on the misallocation of carbon offsets in the Clean Development Mechanism—the world’s largest carbon offset program. Using newly constructed data on the locations and characteristics of 1,350 wind farms in India—a context where it was believed, ex ante, that the Clean Development Mechanism could significantly increase development above baseline projections—we estimate that at least 52% of approved carbon offsets were allocated to projects that would very likely have been built anyway. In addition to wasting scarce resources, we estimate that the sale of these offsets to regulated polluters has substantially increased global carbon dioxide emissions. |
Keywords: | carbon offsets, infra-marginal support, subsidies, investment, wind power, misallocation |
JEL: | H23 H43 L94 Q42 Q54 |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9368&r= |
By: | López Prol, Javier; Schill, Wolf-Peter |
JEL: | Q42 |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc21:242463&r= |
By: | Carlo Cenedese; Patrick Stokkink; Nikolas Gerolimins; John Lygeros |
Abstract: | We propose an incentive-based traffic demand management policy to alleviate traffic congestion on a road stretch that creates a bottleneck for the commuters. The incentive targets electric vehicles owners by proposing a discount on the energy price they use to charge their vehicles if they are flexible in their departure time. We show that, with a sufficient monetary budget, it is possible to completely eliminate the traffic congestion and we compute the optimal discount. We analyse also the case of limited budget, when the congestion cannot be completely eliminated. We compute analytically the policy minimising the congestion and estimate the level of inefficiency for different budgets. We corroborate our theoretical findings with numerical simulations that allow us to highlight the power of the proposed method in providing practical advice for the design of policies. |
Date: | 2021–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2111.05600&r= |
By: | Christophe Bonneuil (CRH - Centre de Recherches Historiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Pierre-Louis Choquet (CSO - Centre de sociologie des organisations - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Benjamin Franta (Stanford University) |
Abstract: | Building upon recent work on other major fossil fuel companies, we report new archival research and primary source interviews describing how Total responded to evolving climate science and policy in the last 50 years. We show that Total personnel received warnings of the potential for catastrophic global warming from its products by 1971, became more fully informed of the issue in the 1980s, began promoting doubt regarding the scientific basis for global warming by the late 1980s, and ultimately settled on a position in the late 1990s of publicly accepting climate science while promoting policy delay or policies peripheral to fossil fuel control. Additionally, we find that Exxon, through the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA), coordinated an international campaign to dispute climate science and weaken international climate policy, beginning in the 1980s. This represents one of the first longitudinal studies of a major fossil fuel company's responses to global warming to the present, describing historical stages of awareness, preparation, denial, and delay. |
Keywords: | Public relations,Denial,Agnotology,Global warming,Climate change,Oil industry |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03390521&r= |
By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Song, Malin; Ahmad, Shabbir; Vo, Xuan Vinh |
Abstract: | This study evaluates the link between human capital, energy consumption, and economic growth using data for the Chinese economy from 1971 to 2018. To test the cointegration relationship between disaggregated energy, human capital, and economic growth, a bounds testing approach is applied by taking the structural breaks into consideration. The estimated results confirm that these variables are integrated. Further, human capital accumulation has a statistically significant negative effect on all types of energy consumption. We note a positive link between energy usage and economic growth. However, a significant negative relationship is found between R&D expenditures, and energy consumption. The results also show a one-way causal effect of human capital on all forms of energy consumption. However, the association between economic growth, dirty energy usage, and clean energy usage remains interdependent, indicating a feedback effect. Further, energy consumption and R&D exhibit bidirectional causal relationship. |
Keywords: | Human Capital, Energy Consumption, China |
JEL: | Q2 |
Date: | 2021–10–13 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110352&r= |
By: | Li, Fanlue; He, Ke; Wang, Yuejie; Zhang, Junbiao |
Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital |
Date: | 2021–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae21:315024&r= |
By: | Yokoo, Hide-Fumi; 横尾, 英史; Arimura, Toshi H.; 有村, 俊秀; Chattopadhyay, Mriduchhanda; Katayama, Hajime; 片山, 東 |
Abstract: | We investigate the accuracy of the perceptions of health risks in India. The context of our study is the risk of developing physical symptoms related to household air pollution caused by cooking. Using field data collected from 588 respondents in 17 villages in West Bengal, we regress the probability of symptoms on fuel choices to predict respondent-specific health risk changes. The estimated risks, which we treat as objective risks, are then compared with the corresponding subjective probabilistic beliefs, which are elicited by an interactive method with visual aids. Our results show that, on average, the respondents slightly underestimate the change in risk when switching from cooking with firewood to cooking with liquefied petroleum gas, even though their beliefs are qualitatively correct. The results further show that risk misperception is associated only with religion among individuals’ observed characteristics, suggesting that their unobserved characteristics play a substantial role in risk misperception. |
Keywords: | Belief, Cooking fuel choice, Health risk, India, Risk misperception, Subjective probabilistic expectation |
JEL: | D83 D84 I12 O13 Q53 |
Date: | 2021–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:econdp:2021-03&r= |
By: | Schünemann, Franziska; Heimann, Tobias; Delzeit, Ruth; Söder, Mareike |
Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
Date: | 2021–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae21:315399&r= |
By: | Björn Brey |
Abstract: | This paper explores the effect of the early adoption of technology on local economic development. While timing and intensity of technology adoption are key drivers of economic divergence across countries, the immediate impact of new technologies within advanced countries has been elusive. Resolving this puzzle, this paper documents that the early adoption of electricity across late 19th century Switzerland was conducive to local economic development not just in the short-run, but also in the long-run. Exploiting exogenous variation in the potential to produce electricity from waterpower combined with rapid changes in power generation and transmission technology the evidence presented can plausibly be interpretedas causal. The main mechanism through which differences in economic development persist is increased human capital accumulation and innovation, rather than persistent differences in the way electricity is used. |
Keywords: | Electricity, Industrialization, Long-run development, Human capital |
Date: | 2021–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/333773&r= |
By: | Zhao, Jiaxin; Mattauch, Linus |
JEL: | H22 |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc21:242351&r= |
By: | Murali, Palanichamy; Ram, Bakshi; Prathap, Duraisamy Puthira; Hari, K; Venkatasubramanian, V |
Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
Date: | 2021–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae21:314945&r= |
By: | Tröger, Tobias; Steuer, Sebastian |
Abstract: | We study the design features of disclosure regulations that seek to trigger the green transition of the global economy and ask whether such regulatory interventions are likely to bring about sufficient market discipline to achieve socially optimal climate targets. We categorize the transparency obligations stipulated in green finance regulation as either compelling the standardized disclosure of raw data, or providing quality labels that signal desirable green characteristics of investment products based on a uniform methodology. Both categories of transparency requirements can be imposed at activity, issuer, and portfolio level. Finance theory and empirical evidence suggest that investors may prefer "green" over "dirty" assets for both financial and non-financial reasons and may thus demand higher returns from environmentally-harmful investment opportunities. However, the market discipline that this negative cost of capital effect exerts on "dirty" issuers is potentially attenuated by countervailing investor interests and does not automatically lead to socially optimal outcomes. Mandatory disclosure obligations and their (public) enforcement can play an important role in green finance strategies. They prevent an underproduction of the standardized high-quality information that investors need in order to allocate capital according to their preferences. However, the rationale behind regulatory intervention is not equally strong for all categories and all levels of "green" disclosure obligations. Corporate governance problems and other agency conflicts in intermediated investment chains do not represent a categorical impediment for green finance strategies. However, the many forces that may prevent markets from achieving socially optimal equilibria render disclosure-centered green finance legislation a second best to more direct forms of regulatory intervention like global carbon taxation and emissions trading schemes. Inherently transnational market-based green finance concepts can play a supporting role in sustainable transition, which is particularly important as long as first-best solutions remain politically unavailable. |
Keywords: | green finance,sustainable finance,ESG,mandatory disclosure,taxonomies,benchmarks,labels,asset pricing,market discipline,climate change,climate risk |
JEL: | D4 D6 G1 G3 G4 K2 |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:lawfin:24&r= |
By: | Jérôme Creel (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Mario Holzner; Francesco Saraceno (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Andrew Watt; Jérôme Wittwer (BPH - Bordeaux population health - INSERM - Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale - Institut de Santé Publique, d'Épidémiologie et de Développement (ISPED) - UB - Université de Bordeaux) |
Abstract: | ■The Recovery Fund recently proposed by the EU Commission marks a sea-change in European integration. Yet it will not be enough to meet the challenges Europe faces. There has been much public debate about financing, but little about the sort of concrete projects that the EU should be putting public money into.■Here we propose a 10-year, €2tn investment programme focusing on public health, transport infrastructure and energy/decarbonisation. ■It consists of two pillars. In a national pillar Member States — broadly as in theCommission proposal — would be allocated €500bn. Resources should be focused on the hardest-hit countries and front-loaded: we suggest over a three-year horizon.■The bulk of the money —€1.5tn — would be devoted to finance genuinely European projects, where there is an EU value added. We describe a series of flagship initiatives that the EU could launch in the fields of public health, transport infrastructure and energy/decarbonisation. ■We call for a strengthened EU public health agency that invests in health-staff skillsand then facilitates their flexible deployment in emergencies, and is tasked withensuring supplies of vital medicines (Health4EU). ■We present costed proposals for two ambitious transport initiatives: a dedicated European high-speed rail network, the Ultra-Rapid-Train, with four-routes cuttingtravel times between EU capitals and regions, and, alternatively, an integrated European Silk Road initiative that combines transport modes on the Chinese model. ■In the area of energy/decarbonisation we seek to "electrify" the Green Deal. We call for funding to accelerate the realisation of a smart and integrated electricity gridfor 100%-renewable energy transmission (e-highway), support for complementary battery and green-hydrogen projects, and a programme, modelled on the SURE initiative, to co-finance member-state decarbonisation and Just Transition policies.■The crisis induced by the pandemic, coming as it does on top of the financial and euro crises, poses a huge challenge. The response needs to take account of the longer-run structural challenges, and above all that of climate change. The European Union should rise to these challenges in the reform of an ambitious medium-runrecovery programme, appropriately financed. An outline of such a programme isset out here by way of illustration, but many permutations and options are available to policymakers. |
Keywords: | Covid-19,European recovery programme |
Date: | 2020–06–18 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03384646&r= |
By: | Zubarev, Andrey; Kirillova, Maria |
Abstract: | In this paper we use a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to study the response of Russian macroeconomic indicators to external shocks. The model includes individual models for the world's largest economies and a model for the oil market. Our specification takes into account the peculiarities of the Russian economy and the persistence of variables in the oil market. We also obtained the impulse response functions to the oil supply shock in Saudi Arabia. |
Keywords: | global vector autoregression, GVAR, oil prices, GDP, oil production, impulse response function |
JEL: | C32 E17 F47 |
Date: | 2021–10–30 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110410&r= |
By: | Mayer, Zoe; Volk, Rebekka; Schultmann, Frank |
Abstract: | Municipalities in Germany develop policy plans referred to as 'Energetische Quartierskonzepte' (EQ, pl. EQs) to lower and decarbonize the energy consumption of existing buildings in whole city districts. These EQs describe the status-quo, a strategy, and measures for the energy-related improvement of a district based on an initial analysis of the buildings in the considered area. We study 25 publicly available reports of German EQs to identify common state-of-the-art approaches for the analysis of buildings on district scale, summarizing their strengths and weaknesses. We extract ten approaches that are currently applied in practice. Overall, we could not find any connection between the year of the EQ publication, the district size, and the type and quantity of analysis approaches used. The most common approaches for obtaining data for building analyses are the use of representative building typologies, on-site inspections of buildings, datasets from network-operators, and citizen surveys. The main weaknesses of the assessed approaches are for example inaccuracies due to simplifying assumptions, inconsistent data formats from different data sources, and problems due to data protection restrictions. The standardization, combination, and further development of the assessed approaches are recommended. |
Keywords: | heating,building retrofits,urban transition,district analysis,building inspection,neighborhood |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:kitiip:61&r= |
By: | Alexander James (Department of Economics, University of Alaska Anchorage); Timothy Retting (Department of Economics, University of Wyoming); Jason Shogren (Department of Economics, University of Wyoming); Brett Watson (Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage); Samuel Wills (Queen's College, University of Cambridge, Department of Economics, University of Sydney; Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, ANU.) |
Abstract: | Are natural resources a curse or a blessing? The answer may depend on how natural wealth is managed. By transforming a temporary windfall into a permanent stock in the form of a sovereign wealth fund, resource-rich states can avoid volatility and Dutch Disease effects, save for future generations, and invest locally. Herein we review the theory behind these resource funds, and explore the empirical evidence of their success. Our review is complemented by case studies that highlight some of the more nuanced features, behavior, and effects of resource funds. While the theoretical work highlights prescribing funds as remedies is situational, existing empirical work to complement these prescriptions is minimal. We discuss possible reasons for this, and in doing so highlight some of the challenges associated with empirical research in this area and discuss possible paths forward. |
Keywords: | Natural Resources, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Survey |
JEL: | Q32 Q33 Q38 Q43 Q48 |
Date: | 2021–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ala:wpaper:2021-03&r= |
By: | Sanghamitra Mukherjee |
Abstract: | This work studies the role of socio-economic and geospatial factors in shaping battery electric vehicle adoption for the case study of Ireland. It provides new insights on the level and timing of likely adoption at scale using a Bass diffusion model combined with a spatial model. The Bass model demonstrates that a country like Ireland may experience peak sales between 2025 and 2030 given current trends, reaching overall uptake levels that are not commensurate with current policy goals, whilst also potentially creating gulfs in regional take-up. The key conclusion from the spatial analysis is that location matters for uptake, through various channels that help or hinder adoption such as resources, information, and policy. Additional investment in public charging infrastructure facilities may also be needed as gaps in coverage exist, especially in rural areas to the West and South-West of the country. Although Ireland enjoys good network coverage overall, this study suggests that more charge points may be needed in some counties and Dublin city and suburbia where the number of charge points is currently disproportionate to a minimum network coverage comparable with the land area, population size, number of private vehicle owners, and travel behaviour. As the urgency for climate action intensifies in the coming decade, our spatio-temporal approach to studying uptake will not only help meet Ireland’s socio-ecological vision for the future, but also provide insights and strategies for comparable countries that are similarly placed in terms of electric vehicle adoption. |
Keywords: | Battery electric vehicle adoption; Spatial analysis; Consumer behaviour; Bass diffusion model; Ireland |
JEL: | D1 D9 O3 Q4 |
Date: | 2021–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:202119&r= |
By: | Bazhanov, Andrei |
Abstract: | This paper offers an approach to construct a family of extraction paths for nonrenewables that guarantee long-run sustainability of an imperfect economy. A path from this family leads to a monotonic growth of output with a decreasing rate of growth if a sustainability condition holds. Otherwise, the path leads either to a bounded decline or U-shaped path of output. In this sense, the paper extends neoclassical results and provides a bridge between neoclassical and degrowth theories because neoclassical tools are used to quantify degrowth scenarios. The offered path can be incentive-compatible for climate change problems because it reduces the extraction of polluting minerals consistently with the IPCC goals. That is, the climate-benefiting emission cuts by the parties of climate agreements may be guided by purely "egoistic" motives - to make own economies long-run sustainable. |
Keywords: | natural nonrenewable resource; extraction policy; long-run sustainability; optimal degrowth |
JEL: | Q01 Q32 Q35 Q38 Q54 |
Date: | 2021–10–23 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110415&r= |
By: | Rogna, Marco; Vogt, Carla J. |
Abstract: | Impact assessment models are a tool largely used to investigate the benefit of reducing polluting emissions and limiting the anthropogenic mean temperature rise. However, they have been often criticised for suggesting low levels of abatement. Countries and regions, that are generally the actors in these models, are usually depicted as having standard concave utility functions in consumption. This, however, disregards a potentially important aspect of environmental negotiations, namely its distributive implications. The present paper tries to fill this gap assuming that countries\regions have Fehr and Schmidt (1999) (F&S) utility functions, specifically tailored for including inequality aversion. Thereby, we propose a new method for the empirical estimation of the inequality aversion parameters by establishing a link between the well known concept of elasticity of marginal utility of consumption and the F&S utility functions, accounting for heterogeneity of countries/regions. By adopting the RICE model, we compare its standard results with the ones obtained introducing F&S utility functions, showing that, under optimal cooperation, the level of temperature rise is significantly lower in the last scenario. In particular, in the last year of the simulation, the optimal temperature rise is 2.1° C. Furthermore, it is shown that stable coalitions are easier to be achieved when F&S preferences are assumed, even if the advantageous inequality aversion parameter (altruism) is assumed to have a very low value. However, self-sustaining coalitions are far from reaching the environmental target of limiting the mean temperature rise below 2° C despite the adoption of F&S utility functions. |
Keywords: | Abatement,climate policy,inequality aversion,Paris agreement,RICE model |
JEL: | C72 D63 Q54 |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:925&r= |
By: | Muhammad, Shahbaz; Avik, Sinha; Muhammad Ibrahim, Shah |
Abstract: | Purpose: Over the last couple of years, Chinese manufacturing sector was affected by the onset of US-China trade war and the outbreak of COVID-19. In such a scenario, air quality in China has encountered a shock, and the impacts of these two incidents are unknown. In this study, we analyze the convergence of air quality in China in presence of multiple structural breaks, and how the impacts of these two events are different from each other. Design/methodology/approach: In order to assess the nature of shocks in the presence of multiple structural breaks, Clemente-Montañés-Reyes (1998) with two structural breaks and Bai and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2009) with five structural breaks are employed. Findings: Our results reveal that air quality in China is showing the sign of convergence, and it is consistent across 18 provinces, which are worst hit by the outbreak of COVID-19. In presence of transitory shocks, the impact of COVID-19 outbreak is found to be higher, whereas the impact of US-China trade war is found to be more persistent. Lastly, outbreak of COVID-19 has been found to have more impact on pollutants with higher severity of health hazard. Originality: To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that contributes to the empirical literatures in terms of investigating the convergence of overall air pollution and individual air pollutants taking COVID-19 and trade war into account. |
Keywords: | China; Trade War; COVID-19; AQI; Convergence |
JEL: | Q3 |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:110040&r= |
By: | Circella, Giovanni; Iogansen, Xiatian; Matson, Grant; Malik, Jai; Etezady, Ali |
Abstract: | Emerging transportation services, whose development and adoption have been enabled by information and communication technology, are largely transforming people’s travel and activity patterns. This study investigates the emerging transportation trends and how they transform travel-related decision-making in the population at large through the application of a unique longitudinal approach. As part of this project, a second wave of data collection in 2018 was built with a rotating panel structure as a continuation of the research efforts that started with the collection of the 2015 California Millennials Dataset. This report focuses on the analyses of the data collected in this project, in particular on the differences in attitudes towards transportation and the environment among different generational groups, the adoption and use of shared mobility services, and their relationship with vehicle ownership, the interest in the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, and the interest in the future adoption of connected and automated vehicles. Due to the small number of respondents who participated in both surveys, for the purposes of the analyses contained in this report, we treated the data as repeated cross-sectional and analyzed the data from each survey separately. The study helps researchers evaluate the complex relationship between observed/latent characteristics and individual travel-related choices and decision-making. The study highlights attitudinal and mode-choice differences across generations. It explores the factors impacting current adoption of and future interest in new transportation technology including alternative fuel vehicles, automated vehicles and shared mobility. Divergent consumer segments are witnessed within each of these markets, with distinctive socio-demographics, latent attitudes, built environment, and level of familiarity with new technologies, which shape the uniqueness of their vehicle ownership, residential location, travel behavior, activity patterns, and lifestyle. View the NCST Project Webpage |
Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Longitudinal Data, Cross-sectional Data, Millennials, Individual Lifestyles, Shared Mobility, Travel Behavior, Vehicle Ownership |
Date: | 2021–11–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2j33z72p&r= |
By: | Paul Malliet (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
Abstract: | La France s'est dotée en 2015 d'une stratégie nationale bas-carbone qui vise à atteindre la neutralité carbone à l'horizon 2050. Cette neutralité sera effective dès lors que les émissions de GES d'origine anthropique subsistantes sur le territoire national seront intégralement compensées par des puits naturels et/ou artificiels de carbone. Alors que la version révisée de ce document vient d'être officiellement publiée le 24avril 2020, il nous semble important de mettre en exergue un autre point de vue dans la comptabilisation des émissions de GES qui considère non plus les activités de production mais celles associées à une consommation finale comme celles faisant référence dans l'imputation des émissions. Si cette différence peut sembler conceptuelle et sans implication directe dans la démarche de transition écologique d'une société, le degré avancé de fragmentation de la chaîne de valeur globale scindée en plusieurs unités de production, disséminées sur l'ensemble du globe, la rend essentielle à son évaluation. Des objectifs complémentaires à celui de la neutralité carbone inscrits dans la SNBC intègrent déjà des indicateurs relatifs à ces émissions hors du territoire national; cependant Il n'existe pas de système d'information standardisé comme celui officiel des Inventaires Nationaux d'Émissions défini par la Convention-Cadre des Nations Unies sur les Changement Climatiques (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). [Premières lignes] |
Keywords: | Émissions importées,Empreinte carbone,Changement climatique |
Date: | 2020–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03403047&r= |
By: | Thomas, Stefan; Bierwirth, Anja; März, Steven; Schüwer, Dietmar; Vondung, Florin; von Geibler, Justus; Wagner, Oliver |
Abstract: | Ein neuer Zukunftsimpuls des Wuppertal Instituts zeigt, welche Weichen die Politik stellen muss, um den Gebäudebestand bis 2045 klimaneutral zu machen. Im Fokus stehen höhere Effizienzanforderungen für Bestands- und Neubauten, ein schnellerer Ausstieg aus Gas- und Ölheizungen, gleichzeitig aber auch höhere Anreize und bessere Unterstützung für Gebäudebesitzende sowie warmmietenneutrale Sanierungen, um Mietende vor einer Überlastung zu schützen. Dabei müssen bestehende Gebäude so renoviert werden, dass sie ähnlich wie Neubauten kaum noch Energie verbrauchen. Gleichzeitig müssen Heizenergie und Stromversorgung komplett auf erneuerbare Energien umgestellt werden. Zudem muss durch intelligentere Nutzungskonzepte der Anstieg der Gebäudeflächen gebremst werden. Die kommende Legislaturperiode ist somit entscheidend, damit Klimaneutralität im Gebäudesektor bis spätestens 2045 erreicht werden kann. Dieser Zukunftsimpuls schlägt daher ein 14 Maßnahmen umfassendes und konsistentes Politikpaket vor. Neben den oben genannten Maßnahmen des Förderns und Forderns gehören dazu insbesondere klare Vorgaben für eine bessere energetische Sanierung und ein deutliches Ziel für den Ausstieg aus fossilen Gas- und Ölheizungen, die allen Beteiligten Sicherheit geben. Individuelle Sanierungsfahrpläne für alle heute noch nicht effizienten Gebäude bis spätestens 2028 und kommunale Wärmepläne helfen den Gebäudebesitzenden bei der technischen Entwicklung ihrer Gebäude und der Investitionsplanung. Häufig sind es die nicht-monetären Hemmnisse, die maßgeblich für die geringe Sanierungsrate sind. One-Stop-Shops verringern die Hemmschwelle Maßnahmen umzusetzen. Darüber hinaus wirkt Quartiersmanagement unterstützend und hilft Kräfte zu bündeln. |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wupimp:21&r= |
By: | Spycher, Sarah; Winkler, Ralph |
JEL: | Q58 |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc21:242366&r= |
By: | Oranuch Wongpiyabovorn; Alejandro Plastina (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University); Sergio H. Lence (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University) |
Abstract: | Increasing concerns about climate change have prompted actions, both by governments and the private sector, aimed at curbing the emissions of greenhouse gases. An important number of such initiatives involve the trading of GHG allowances and offsets. An allowance permits its holder to emit a specified amount of GHGs, whereas an offset is a certified reduction in GHG emissions that can be used to compensate for GHG emissions elsewhere. Recently, carbon offsets have attracted the attention of decisionmakers in agriculture for their alleged potential to enhance farmers' profits, as some agricultural activities can generate offsets by capturing GHGs (e.g., methane capture from manure management, soil carbon sequestration, and fertilizer use reduction). The purpose of this article is to provide some background information on these markets and discuss the potential of the futures market for GHG offsets recently launched by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group to act as a catalyzer of the market for agricultural offsets. |
Date: | 2021–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:apr-fall-2021-4&r= |
By: | David Popp; Francesco Vona (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Giovanni Marin (Università degli Studi di Urbino 'Carlo Bo'); Ziqiao Chen |
Abstract: | We evaluate the employment effect of the green part of the largest fiscal stimulus in recent history, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA). Each $1 million of green ARRA created 15 new jobs that emerged especially in the post-ARRA period (2013-2017). We find little evidence of significant short-run employment gains. Green ARRA creates more jobs in commuting zones with a greater prevalence of pre-existing green skills. Nearly half of the jobs created by green ARRA investments were in construction or waste management. Nearly all new jobs created are manual labor positions. Nonetheless, manual labor wages did not increase. |
Keywords: | Employment effect,Green subsides,American Recovery Act,Heterogeneous effect,Distributional impacts |
Date: | 2020–01–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03403066&r= |
By: | Alejandro Plastina (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University); Wendiam Sawadgo |
Abstract: | Emerging voluntary carbon markets are attracting lots of attention in US agriculture, to the extent that agriculture carbon credits are usually referred to as the new cash crop. In essence, large companies would purchase carbon credits from multiple sources, including agriculture, to achieve their net zero emission goals. Farmers and ranchers would implement conservation practices that sequester carbon or provide other environmental benefits in exchange for compensation in cash or carbon credits depending on the carbon program. However, not all conservation practices are able to generate carbon credits. |
Date: | 2021–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:apr-fall-2021-7&r= |
By: | Paul Malliet (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
Abstract: | Dans un contexte où l'humanité doit réduire drastiquement ses émissions de gaz à effet de serre afin de limiter la hausse des températures, la mesure des émissions carbone est devenue un enjeu essentiel du XXIe siècle. L'essor des échanges commerciaux et la globalisation de la chaine de valeur rendent par ailleurs de plus en plus difficile la traçabilité des impacts climatiques et environnementaux des biens et des produits que nous consommons en France. Le concept d'empreinte carbone s'inscrit dans une démarche complémentaire de celle des inventaires nationaux de gaz à effet de serre généralement utilisés dans le cadre des négociations internationales autour des enjeux climatiques, en proposant d'imputer l'ensemble des émissions induites par un processus de production d'un bien ou d'un service à son consommateur final. [Premier paragraphe] |
Keywords: | Empreinte carbone,Ménages français,Impacts climatiques |
Date: | 2020–01–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03384969&r= |
By: | Krahnen, Jan Pieter; Rocholl, Jörg; Thum, Marcel |
Abstract: | We raise some critical points against a naïve interpretation of "green finance" products and strategies. These critical insights are the background against which we take a closer look at instruments and policies that might allow green finance to become more impactful. In particular, we focus on the role of a taxonomy and investor activism. We also describe the interaction of government policies with green finance practice - an aspect, which has been mostly neglected in policy debates but needs to be taken into account. Finally, the special case of green government bonds is discussed. |
Keywords: | Green Finance,Climate Change,Sustainability,Taxonomy,ESG |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewh:87&r= |
By: | Thi Ngoc Nguyen; Felix M\"usgens |
Abstract: | Due to the stochastic nature of photovoltaic (PV) power generation, there is high demand for forecasting PV output to better integrate PV generation into power grids. Systematic knowledge regarding the factors influencing forecast accuracy is crucially important, but still mostly unknown. In this paper, we review 180 papers on PV forecasts and extract a database of forecast errors for statistical analysis. We show that among the forecast models, hybrid models consistently outperform the others and will most likely be the future of PV output forecasting. The use of data processing techniques is positively correlated with the forecast quality, while the lengths of the forecast horizon and out-of-sample test set have negative effects on the forecast accuracy. We also found that the inclusion of numerical weather prediction variables, data normalization, and data resampling are the most effective data processing techniques. Furthermore, we found some evidence for cherry picking in reporting errors and recommend that the test sets be at least one year to better assess model performance. The paper also takes the first step towards establishing a benchmark for assessing PV output forecasts. |
Date: | 2021–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2111.02092&r= |
By: | Hendrik Hansmeier (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Karlsruhe, Germany) |
Abstract: | The need to develop and disseminate solutions to address environmental challenges such as climate change or resource depletion is more urgent than ever. However, the spatial dimension of pathways towards sustainability has only attracted scholarly interest in recent years, particularly through largely parallel research on the geography of eco-innovations and the geography of sustainability transitions. By systematically reviewing the literature, this article aims to compare both lines of research, devoting special attention to the role of regions and actors. While the geography of eco-innovations field focuses on local and regional conditions that enable the emergence of environmentally friendly technologies and industries, research on the geography of sustainability transitions highlights the place-specific but multiscalar nature of socio-technical change, taking into account the role of different actor groups. The review identifies numerous complementarities between both fields that may serve as starting points to further integrate geographical work on eco-innovations and transformative change. |
Keywords: | geography, eco-innovations, sustainability transitions, green technologies, socio-technical systems, systematic literature review |
Date: | 2021 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoe:wpaper:2107&r= |
By: | Nebojsa NAKICENOVIC; Caroline ZIMM; Monika Matusiak (European Commission - JRC); Katerina Ciampi Stancova (European Commission - JRC) |
Abstract: | This report proposes a new transformative narrative to help guide the next phase of Smart Specialisation activities. The narrative helps align Smart Specialisation with the European Green Deal and the UN 2030 Agenda by offering directionality and combining different levels of policy to achieve the needed sustainability transformations. The report highlights the role of policy coherence and coordination for the transformation. It presents approaches to increase policy coherence to harness synergies and alleviate trade-offs across different objectives with a focus on environmental issues. Throughout this report a number of selected cases is used to illustrate the conceptual discussion developed in a more theoretical part of the report. These cases presented in the report cover countries and regions from within and outside the European Union. EU countries and outside the EU and present lessons learnt on the different topics linked to Smart Specialisation, sustainability and environmental commons. The report concludes by a discussion on how to orient existing S3 approaches towards sustainability. |
Keywords: | Smart Specialisation, European Green Deal, Sustainable Development Goals |
Date: | 2021–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc126651&r= |
By: | Sigurd Bjarghov; Hossein Farahmand; Gerard Doorman |
Abstract: | While volume-based grid tariffs have been the norm for residential consumers, capacity-based tariffs will become more relevant with the increasing electrification of society. A further development is capacity subscription, where consumers are financially penalised for exceeding their subscribed capacity, or alternatively their demand is limited to the subscribed level. The penalty or limitation can either be static (always active) or dynamic, meaning that it is only activated when there are active grid constraints. We investigate the cost impact for static and dynamic capacity subscription tariffs, for 84 consumers based on six years of historical load data. We use several approaches for finding the optimal subscription level ex ante. The results show that annual costs remain both stable and similar for most consumers, with a few exceptions for those that have high peak demand. In the case of a physical limitation, it is important to use a stochastic approach for the optimal subscription level to avoid excessive demand limitations. Facing increased peak loads due to electrification, regulators should consider a move to capacity-based tariffs in order to reduce cross-subsidisation between consumers and increase cost reflectivity without impacting the DSO cost recovery. |
Date: | 2021–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2111.06253&r= |