nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2021‒10‒04
forty papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Forecasting Electricity Prices with Expert, Linear and Non-Linear Models By Anna Gloria Billé; Angelica Gianfreda; Filippo Del Grosso; Francesco Ravazzolo
  2. Plausible futures for the Norwegian Offshore Energy Sector. Business as Usual, Harvest or Rebuild? By Per Espen Stoknes; Iulie Aslaksen; Ulrich Goluke; Jørgen Randers; Per Arild Garnåsjordet
  3. Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emission Fluctuations By Soojin Jo; Lilia Karnizova
  4. Online Appendix to Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emission Fluctuations By Soojin Jo; Lilia Karnizova
  5. Economie et réchauffement climatique L'analyse de Jeremy Rifkin en questions By Jacques Fontanel
  6. Assessment of a social discount rate and financial hurdle rates for energy system modelling in Viet Nam By Brendan Coleman
  7. Cross-country spillovers of renewable energy promotion: The case of Germany By Abrell, Jan; Kosch, Mirjam
  8. Support for renewable energy: The case of wind power By Germeshausen, Robert; Heim, Sven; Wagner, Ulrich J.
  9. The economic and climate value of flexibility in green energy markets By Abrell, Jan; Rausch, Sebastian; Streitberger, Clemens
  10. An Information-Based Index of Uncertainty and the predictability of Energy Prices By Olubusoye, Olusanya E; Yaya, OlaOluwa S.; Ogbonna, Ahamuefula
  11. Priorities for a development-friendly EU Carbon Border Adjustment (CBAM) By Brandi, Clara
  12. Intermittent versus dispatchable power sources: An integrated competitive assessment By Glenk, Gunther; Reichelstein, Stefan
  13. Between- and within-country distributional impacts from harmonizing carbon prices in the EU By Fredriksson, Gustav; Landis, Florian; Rausch, Sebastian
  14. A Market Mechanism for Truthful Bidding with Energy Storage By Rajni Kant Bansal; Pengcheng You; Dennice F. Gayme; Enrique Mallada
  15. A Minimal System Cost Minimization Model for Variable Renewable Energy Integration: Application to France and Comparison to Mean-Variance Analysis By Alexis Tantet; Philippe Drobinski
  16. Green energy pricing for digital europe By Claude Crampes; Yassine Lefouili
  17. Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil By Knut Are Aastveit; Jamie L. Cross; Herman K. van Dijk
  18. Heterogeneity of Beliefs and Information Rigidity in the Crude Oil Market: Evidence from Survey Data By Robert L. Czudaj
  19. Prioritäten für eine entwicklungsfreundliche Ausgestaltung des CO2-Grenzausgleichsmechanismus der EU By Brandi, Clara
  20. The Political Economy of Russian Energy Policy: Evolution and Performance After Market Transition By Dai Yamawaki
  22. Globalization, Governance and the Green Economy in Sub-Saharan Africa: Policy Thresholds By Asongu, Simplice; Nnanna, Joseph
  23. What are the distributional implications of climate policies? Recent evidence from developing countries By Malerba, Daniele
  24. Energy Pricing during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Predictive Information-Based Uncertainty Indexes with Machine Learning Algorithm By Olubusoye, Olusanya E; Akintande, Olalekan J.; Yaya, OlaOluwa S.; Ogbonna, Ahamuefula; Adenikinju, Adeola F.
  25. Rationalizing Policy Support for Zero Emission Vehicles in Canada By Randall Wigle, Istvan Kery
  26. The informational value of environmental taxes By Stefan Ambec; Jessica Coria
  27. Climate Stress Testing By Richard Berner; Robert Engle; Hyeyoon Jung
  28. Lobbying Influence -- The Role of Money, Strategies and Measurements By Fintan Oeri; Adrian Rinscheid; Aya Kachi
  29. Welche Verteilungsfragen ergeben sich aus der Klimapolitik? Aktuelle Erkenntnisse aus Entwicklungsländern By Malerba, Daniele
  30. Regional technological capabilities and Green opportunities in Europe By Nicolo Barbieri; Davide Consoli; Lorenzo Napolitano; Francois Perruchas; Emanuele Pugliese; Angelica Sbardella
  31. The external dimensions of the European green deal: The case for an integrated approach By Koch, Svea; Keijzer, Niels
  32. Unpacking the management of Oligo-coopetition strategies in the absence of a moderating third party By Frédéric Le Roy; Sea Matilda Bez; Johanna Gast
  33. Optimising the acceptance of electric vehicles for urban logistics with evidence from France and Germany By Verena Ehrler; Pierre Camilleri
  34. Labor Market Nationalization Policies and Exporting Firm Outcomes: Evidence from Saudi Arabia By Patricia Cortés; Semiray Kasoolu; Carolina Pan
  35. The untapped potential of global climate funds for investing in social protection By Aleksandrova, Mariya
  36. Strukturwandel Elektromobilität: Mögliche Auswirkungen auf die Beschäftigung in Sachsen By Sujata, Uwe; Weyh, Antje; Lenhardt, Julian
  37. Im Spannungsfeld von Wasser-, Energie- und Landwirtschaftspolitik: Neue Wege für den Wasserschutz in der Weser-Ems-Region By Meergans, Franziska; Aue, Christina; Knieper, Christian; Kochendörfer, Sascha; Lenschow, Andrea; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia
  38. Does green public procurement trigger environmental innovations? By Krieger, Bastian; Zipperer, Vera
  39. A dynamic theory of spatial externalities By Boucekkine, R.; Fabbri, G.; Federico, S.; Gozzi, F.
  40. Urban Air Mobility: Opportunities and Obstacles By Shaheen, Susan; Cohen, Adam

  1. By: Anna Gloria Billé (Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padua, Italy); Angelica Gianfreda (Department of Economics, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy; Energy Markets Group, London Business School, UK); Filippo Del Grosso (Faculty of Economics and Management, Free University of Bozen, Italy); Francesco Ravazzolo (Faculty of Economics and Management, Free University of Bozen, Italy; BI Norwegian Business School; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)
    Abstract: This paper provides an iterative model selection for forecasting day–ahead hourly electricity prices, while accounting for fundamental drivers. Forecasts of demand, in-feed from renewable energy sources (RES), fossil fuel prices, and physical flows are all included in linear and nonlinear specifications, ranging in the class of ARFIMA–GARCH models hence including parsimonious autoregressive specifications (known as expert-type models). Results support the adoption of a simple structure that is able to adapt to market conditions. Indeed, we include forecasted demand, wind and solar power, actual generation from hydro, biomass and waste, weighted imports and traditional fossil fuels. The inclusion of these exogenous regressors, in both the conditional mean and variance equations, outperforms in point and, especially, in density forecasting. Considering the northern Italian prices and using the Model Confidence Set, predictions indicate a strong predictive power of regressors, in particular in an expert model augmented for GARCH-type time-varying volatility. Finally, we find that using professional and more timely predictions of consumption and RES improves the forecast accuracy of electricity prices more than predictions freely available to researchers.
    Keywords: Demand, Wind, Solar, Biomass, Waste, Fossil Fuels (coal, natural gas, CO2), Weighted Inflows, Commercial and Public Forecasts
    JEL: C13 C22 C53 Q47
    Date: 2021–09
  2. By: Per Espen Stoknes; Iulie Aslaksen; Ulrich Goluke; Jørgen Randers; Per Arild Garnåsjordet (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: The global energy transition from fossil to low-carbon energy challenges the future of the Norwegian petroleum sector, a major factor in the country’s economy, now facing financial climate risk and longterm declining demand, particularly for gas to the EU. What energy policies can assist the transition into a low-carbon society? We explore three investment scenarios for the Norwegian offshore energy sector from 2020 to 2070: 1) Business as usual, 2) Increasing cash-flow by harvesting existing petroleum fields and cutting investments (Harvest-and-Exit), or 3) Rebuilding with green offshore energy investments. In a new economic model, we compare impacts on key macro- and sectoreconomic variables. We find that investing moderately in green offshore energy production can reverse the extra job decline that a quicker phase-out of petroleum investments would incur. The impacts on the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund - Government Pension Fund Global - and on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are insignificant to 2050 and positive by 2070. The simulated investments and economic results can be compared with observations to constitute forward-looking indicators of Norway's energy transitioning.
    Keywords: Green transition; Energy; Petroleum; Offshore wind
    JEL: Q43 Q54
    Date: 2021–08
  3. By: Soojin Jo (Yonsei University and Bank of Canada); Lilia Karnizova (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa)
    Abstract: CO2 emissions are commonly perceived to rise and fall with aggregate output. Yet many factors, including energy efficiency improvements, emission coefficient variations, and shifts to cleaner energy, can break the positive emissions-output relationship. To evaluate the importance of such factors, we uncover shocks that by construction reduce emissions without lowering output. These novel shocks explain a substantial fraction of emission fluctuations. We interpret these shocks as changes in the energy efficiency of consumer products, after extensive examinations of their impacts on macroeconomic and environmental indicators. Consequently, models omitting energy efficiency likely overestimate the trade-off between environmental protection and economic performance.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy efficiency, E-DSGE, sign restrictions.
    JEL: E32 Q43 Q50 Q55
    Date: 2021
  4. By: Soojin Jo (Yonsei University and Bank of Canada); Lilia Karnizova (Department of Economics, University of Ottawa)
    Abstract: This Appendix provides additional information and analyses related to our paper Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emission Fluctuations.'' Section 1 explains the data sources and transformations. Section 2 covers a variety of robustness checks conducted for our baseline VAR results. Section 3 reports the results related to the analysis of emissions and energy consumption by the energy-use sector. Specifically, section 3.1 demonstrates the impact of VAR estimation and model uncertainty on the inference from distributed lag models (DLMs). Section 3.2 reports the responses of energy consumption by sector to a negative correlation (NC) shock. Section 4 lays out a full description of the multi-sector E-DSGE explained in section 3.1 of our main text. Finally, section 5 includes additional results on the implications of weather extremes for our interpretation of NC shocks as changes in the energy efficiency of consumer products.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy efficiency, E-DSGE, sign restrictions.
    JEL: E32 Q43 Q50 Q55
    Date: 2021
  5. By: Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2)
    Abstract: Faced with the catastrophic effects expected from global warming, many proposals have been made to develop a Green New Deal. Jeremy Rifkin presents a complete and optimistic dossier on the possibilities of finding quick solutions. With the help of public institutions, the tipping point for the transition to a higher profitability of non-carbon energies is set for 2028. The aim is to combine the new performance of solar and wind energy with a plan to use the digital industry to optimise the electrical potential of cars, buildings, agriculture, transport and industry. A "New Green Deal" was proposed in February 2019 to the US Senate. It would aim to produce 100% of the United States' electricity from clean, renewable sources and to increase the country's energy efficiency. This will result in "locked assets" in oil and gas fields. Rifkin is therefore urging financiers to invest in clean energy right away.
    Abstract: Face aux effets catastrophiques attendus par le réchauffement climatique, de nombreuses propositions ont été faites pour développer un New Deal vert. Jeremy Rifkin présente un dossier complet et optimiste quant aux possibilités de trouver des solutions rapides. Avec l'aide des institutions publiques, le point de bascule du passage à une rentabilité supérieure des énergies non carbonées est établi pour 2028. Il s'agit d'allier les nouvelles performances de l'énergie solaire et éolienne à l'application d'un plan conduisant à utiliser l'industrie digitale pour optimiser le potentiel électrique des voitures, des bâtiments, de l'agriculture, des transports et de l'industrie. Un « New Green Deal » a été proposé en février 2019 au Sénat américain. Il s'agirait de produire 100% de l'électricité des Etats-Unis avec des sources renouvelables et propres et d'augmenter l'efficacité énergétique nationale. Il en résultera des « actifs bloqués » des champs pétrolières ou gazeux. Rifkin incite alors les financiers à investir tout de suite dans les énergies propres.
    Keywords: New Green deal,locked assets,oil,gas,solar energy,wind energy,global warming,digital industry
    Date: 2020–03–03
  6. By: Brendan Coleman (OECD)
    Abstract: Viet Nam’s sustained economic development is driving increasing demand for electricity with generation capacity predicted to nearly double over the next decade. With the majority of economic hydropower resources utilised, delays in coal power pipelines, and increasing energy insecurity, Viet Nam has pivoted its electricity sector development plans to further prioritize the deployment of wind and solar generation. A clean energy transition such as this can deliver multiple social and economic benefits related to cost reductions, improved energy security, and public health.This working paper was prepared to support least-cost energy sector planning in Viet Nam particularly for the upcoming Viet Nam Energy Outlook 2021 (VEO21) being prepared in partnership between Viet Nam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) and the Danish Energy Agency (DEA). This working paper discusses the use of discounting in energy models and the potential impact discount rate selection may have on a model’s cost-optimised technology selections. The paper also analyses the clean energy finance environment in Viet Nam to identify opportunities for policy levers to reduce the prevailing cost of capital and how these cost implications can be tested in the VEO21 modelling exercise. The main outputs of this working paper are two sets of model inputs, an estimate for an appropriate social discount rate and secondly a set of high and low financial hurdle rates for renewable energy technologies for use in sensitivity or scenario analysis.
    Keywords: Clean Energy, Cost of Capital, Discount Rates, Energy Planning, Hurdle Rates, Viet Nam
    JEL: O21 Q01 Q48 G18
    Date: 2021–09–29
  7. By: Abrell, Jan; Kosch, Mirjam
    Abstract: Electricity generation based on renewable energy (RE) sources such as wind and solar replace the most expensive generators that often rely on fossil fuels. In response to RE promotion, wholesale electricity prices and carbon emissions are therefore expected to decrease. In interconnected electricity systems, this so-called merit- order effect stimulates a change in electricity trade ows. Therefore, conventional generation and prices in neighboring countries are also likely to decrease. The impact of these trade reactions on carbon offsets is ambiguous and depends on installed generation and interconnector capacities. Moreover, the cross-border merit-order effect causes opposing effects on consumers and producers: Generators' profits decline, while consumers benefit from lower electricity costs and an increase in the consumer surplus. Using a rich data set of hourly technology-specific generation and wholesale market price data for ten central European countries, we estimate the domestic and cross-border impacts of German RE for the years 2015 to 2020. We find that German RE generation offset 79 to 113 MtCO2 per year. The major emission effect took place in Germany (64 - 99 MtCO2). The average cost of emission offset of 212 to 321e/t were almost entirely borne by German market participants. Neighboring countries do not bear costs, but a significant shift from producer to consumer rents is observed.
    Keywords: Renewable promotion,Electricity prices,Merit-order effect,Cross-border impacts,Carbon emissions
    JEL: Q41 Q42 Q58
    Date: 2021
  8. By: Germeshausen, Robert; Heim, Sven; Wagner, Ulrich J.
    Abstract: Successful decarbonization of the electricity sector hinges on the support of the public, which is at risk when electricity generation emits local externalities. This paper estimates the impact of wind turbine deployment on granular measures of revealed preferences for renewable electricity in product and political markets. We address endogenous siting of turbines with a novel IV approach that exploits quasi-experimental variation in profitability. We find that nearby wind turbines significantly reduce citizens' support, but this effect quickly fades with distance from the site. Our results shed light on how distance requirements and financial participation could enhance support for renewables.
    Keywords: Renewable energy,Wind power,Public support,Elections,Externalities
    JEL: D12 D72 Q42 Q50
    Date: 2021
  9. By: Abrell, Jan; Rausch, Sebastian; Streitberger, Clemens
    Abstract: This paper examines how enhanced flexibility across space, time, and a regulatory dimension affects the economic costs and CO2 emissions of integrating large shares of intermittent renewable energy from wind and solar. We develop a numerical model which resolves hourly dispatch and investment choices among heterogeneous energy technologies and natural resources in interconnected wholesale electricity markets, cross-country trade (spatial flexibility), energy storage (temporal flexibility), and tradable green quotas (regulatory flexibility). Taking the model to the data for the case of Europe's system of interconnected electricity markets, we find that the appropriate combination of flexibility can bring about substantial gains in economic efficiency, reduce costs (up to 13.8%) and lower CO2 emissions (up to 51.2%). Regulatory flexibility is necessary to realize most of the maximum possible benefits. We also find that gains from increased flexibility are unevenly distributed and that some countries incur welfare losses.
    Date: 2021
  10. By: Olubusoye, Olusanya E; Yaya, OlaOluwa S.; Ogbonna, Ahamuefula
    Abstract: We develop an index of uncertainty, the COVID-19 induced uncertainty (CIU) index, and employ it to empirically examine the vulnerability of energy prices amidst the COVID-19 pandemic using a distributed lag model that jointly accounts for conditional heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation, persistence, and structural breaks, as well as day-of-the-week effect. The nexus between energy returns and uncertainty index is analyzed, using daily price returns of eight energy sources (Brent oil, diesel, gasoline, heating oil, kerosene, natural gas, propane, and WTI oil) and four news/information-based uncertainty proxies [CIU, EPU, Global Fear Index (GFI) and VIX]. The CIU and alternative indexes are used, respectively for the main estimation and sensitivity analysis. We show the outperformance of CIU over alternative news uncertainty proxies in the prediction of energy prices. News (aggregate) and bad news are found to negatively and significantly impact energy returns, while good news has a significantly positive impact. Imperatively, energy variables lack hedging potentials against the uncertainty occasioned by the COVID-19 pandemic, while we find no strong evidence of asymmetry. Our results are robust to the choice of news variables, forecast horizons employed, with likely sensitivity to energy prices.
    Keywords: Distributed lag Model, Energy, Google Trends, Hedging Potential, Uncertainty
    JEL: C22 C32 Q41 Q47
    Date: 2021–02
  11. By: Brandi, Clara
    Abstract: The European Commission unveiled the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in July 2021 as part of its "Fit for 55" climate-policy package. The European Commission had announced this trade-policy instrument under the Green Deal in 2019 as a means of implementing more ambitious climate-policy goals without energy-intensive sectors transferring their emissions abroad (carbon leakage). The CBAM proposal envisages imposing a levy on imports in certain energy-intensive European sectors that is proportional to the carbon content of the goods concerned. The proposal complements the EU's existing Emissions Trading System by requiring importers of goods purchased from especially energy-intensive sectors (steel, cement, electricity, fertiliser and aluminium) abroad to purchase carbon certificates based on emissions data from abroad. CBAM is primarily designed to promote an ambitious climate policy for the EU. However, the EU's current proposal creates the impression that it is mainly about improving domestic competitiveness at the expense of climate-policy effectiveness and development prospects.The draft legislation must now be fleshed out in detail by the EU member states and the European Parliament. In addition to addressing climate-policy effectiveness and compatibility with WTO legislation, account must also be taken of the impact on European trading partners, and, in particular, poor developing countries. Many developing countries are expected to face additional export costs as a result of the CBAM. The EU should carefully evaluate the associated disadvantages for developing countries and work towards achieving a development-friendly design of the mechanism. Corresponding improvements should be made to the CBAM in the EU's legislative process going forward: The EU must ensure that the border adjustments do not have a detrimental impact on poor countries. Least developed countries (LDCs) should be exempted from the CBAM. The EU should provide targeted support to the developing countries affected by the mechanism, for instance, by building their capacity for implementing the CBAM and for reducing carbon emissions in the sectors concerned. The EU should assist low- and middle-income partner countries with the decarbonisation of their manufacturing industries. The EU should also recycle revenue from the CBAM by deploying it primarily for climate-policy purposes abroad. The affected countries should be involved to a greater extent in future through consultations and diplomatic dialogue in the process for further developing the mechanism.
    Date: 2021
  12. By: Glenk, Gunther; Reichelstein, Stefan
    Abstract: The cost and revenue earnings potential of alternative power generation sources has shifted considerably in recent years. Here we introduce the concept of Levelized Profit Margins (LPM) to capture the changing unit economics of both intermittent and dispatchable generation technologies. We apply this framework in the context of the California and Texas wholesale power markets. Our LPM estimates indicate that solar photovoltaic and wind power have both substantially improved their competitive position over the years 2012-2019, primarily due to falling life-cycle costs of production. In California, these gains far outweigh an emerging 'cannibalization' trend that results from substantial additions of solar power having made energy less valuable in the middle of the day. We also find the competitiveness of natural gas power plants to have either improved or held steady. For this generation technology, declining capacity utilization rates have effectively been counterbalanced by a 'dispatchability price premium' that reflects the growing market share of intermittent renewables.
    Keywords: Renewable Energy,Intermittency,Dispatchable Power,Levelized Cost,Profit Margins
    JEL: M1 O33 Q41 Q42 Q48 Q54 Q55
    Date: 2021
  13. By: Fredriksson, Gustav; Landis, Florian; Rausch, Sebastian
    Abstract: This paper examines the distributional impacts from (i) harmonizing prices for carbon dioxide emissions across sectors and EU countries and (ii) using alternative rules for carbon revenue distribution. We develop a numerical multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model of the EU-27 economy which resolves household income deciles, based on micro-survey data on expenditure and income, and markets for fossil fuels, electricity, and (EU-wide and national) tradeable emissions rights. We find that carbon price harmonization yields efficiency gains at the EU level. The distributional effects between countries vary and depend largely on the redistribution of carbon revenues. Based on the rules currently in place in Phase IV of the EU ETS, efficiency gains flow disproportionately to low-income countries. Within-country incidence is progressive or neutral for most countries when revenue redistribution is ignored, and is not much affected by carbon price harmonization. Per-capita-based revenue redistribution rules lead to strong progressive outcomes and yield gains for low-income households. Evaluating different policy options using a social welfare function that incorporates inequality aversion suggests that there is no trade-off between efficiency and equity in harmonizing carbon prices in the EU economy.
    Keywords: Carbon pricing,Carbon market integration,EU climate policy,Distributional impacts,Cost effectiveness,Computable general equilibrium,Household heterogeneity
    JEL: C68 H23 Q43 Q52
    Date: 2021
  14. By: Rajni Kant Bansal; Pengcheng You; Dennice F. Gayme; Enrique Mallada
    Abstract: This paper proposes a storage cycle aware market mechanism for a multi-interval electricity market with generators and storage. Drawing ideas from linear supply function bidding, we propose for storage a cycle based cumulative supply function bidding form -- storage half-cycle depths as a function of cycle based prices. It allows storage to reflect their preference for cycling operations, which are directly associated with storage degradation, instead of power at each interval. The market clearing for associated economic dispatch based on bids (linear supply function for generators) yields traditional clearing prices for energy and specific clearing prices for storage cycling -- cycling prices on identified half-cycles. We show that price taking participants in such a market are all incentivized to reveal their truthful costs, thus leading to an efficient competitive equilibrium. Simulations for New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) data illustrate that linear supply function bid is insufficient to guarantee storage profitability.
    Date: 2021–09
  15. By: Alexis Tantet (LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Philippe Drobinski (LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - X - École polytechnique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - SU - Sorbonne Université - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres)
    Abstract: The viability of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE)-investment strategies depends on the response of dispatchable producers to satisfy the net load. We lack a simple research tool with sufficient complexity to represent major phenomena associated with the response of dispatchable producers to the integration of high shares of VRE and their impact on system costs. We develop a minimization of the system cost allowing one to quantify and decompose the system value of VRE depending on an aggregate dispatchable production. Defining the variable cost of the dispatchable generation as quadratic with a coefficient depending on macroeconomic factors such as the cost of greenhouse gas emissions leads to the simplest version of the model. In the absence of curtailment, and for particular parameter values, this version is equivalent to a mean-variance problem. We apply this model to France with solar and wind capacities distributed over the administrative regions of metropolitan France. In this case, ignoring the wholesale price effect and variability has a relatively small impact on optimal investments, but leads to largely underestimating the system total cost and overestimating the system marginal cost.
    Keywords: renewable energy,variability,energy mix,system cost,mean-variance
    Date: 2021
  16. By: Claude Crampes (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Yassine Lefouili (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the trade-offs associated with the digitalization of the energy sector. Arguing that digitalization has both bright and dark sides, we study the extent to which it can help make energy systems efficient and sustainable. We first discuss how digitalization affects the responsiveness of demand, and explore its implications for spot pricing, load shedding, and priority service. In particular, we highlight the conditions under which digital technologies that allow demand to be more responsive to supply are likely to be used. We then turn to the way digitalization can contribute to the decarbonization of the energy sector, and discuss the promises and limitations of artificial intelligence in this area. Finally, we contend that policymakers should pay special attention to the privacy concerns raised by the digitalization of the energy sector and the cyberattacks that it enables.
    Keywords: Digitalisation,Dynamic pricing,Electricity,Artificial Intelligence
    Date: 2021–09
  17. By: Knut Are Aastveit; Jamie L. Cross; Herman K. van Dijk
    Abstract: We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil using a combination of probabilistic individual model forecasts. Our combination method extends earlier approaches that have been applied to oil price forecasting, by allowing for sequentially updating of time-varying combination weights, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter-dependencies among models. To illustrate the usefulness of the method, we present an extensive set of empirical results about time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach systematically outperforms commonly used benchmark models and combination approaches, both in terms of point and density forecasts. The dynamic patterns of the estimated individual model weights are highly time-varying, reflecting a large time variation in the relative performance of the various individual models. The combination approach has built-in diagnostic information measures about forecast inaccuracy and/or model set incompleteness, which provide clear signals of model incompleteness during three crisis periods. To highlight that our approach also can be useful for policy analysis, we present a basic analysis of profit-loss and hedging against price risk.
    Keywords: oil price, forecast density combination, bayesian forecasting, instabilities, model uncertainty
    JEL: C11 C32 C53 Q43 Q47
    Date: 2021–06–01
  18. By: Robert L. Czudaj (Department of Economics, Chemnitz University of Technology)
    Abstract: This paper assesses information contained in the micro dataset of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters regarding quarterly Brent crude oil price forecasts. We examine the expectations building mechanism by referring to the processing of information and confirm the presence of information rigidity within the crude oil market. However, our findings also show that simple models of imperfect information considered in the literature are insufficient to explain the behavior of professional forecasters. We provide additional stylized facts which are helpful for designing more elaborate imperfect information models
    Keywords: Crude oil, Disagreement, Expectations, Heterogeneity, Information rigidity, Survey data
    JEL: D83 D84 E44
    Date: 2021–09
  19. By: Brandi, Clara
    Abstract: Am 14. Juli 2021 hat die EU-Kommission den CO2-Grenzausgleichsmechanismus (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, CBAM) als Teil ihres klimapolitischen Fit-for-55-Pakets vorgestellt. Die EU-Kommission hatte dieses handelspolitische Instrument 2019 im Rahmen des Green Deals angekündigt, um ambitioniertere klimapolitische Ziele umsetzen zu können, ohne dass energieintensive Sektoren ihre Emissionen ins Ausland verlagern (Carbon Leakage). Die CBAM-Vorlage sieht vor, Einfuhren in bestimmten energieintensiven EU-Sektoren mit einer zum CO2-Gehalt proportionalen Abgabe zu belasten: Der CBAM-Entwurf erweitert das bestehende EU-Emissionshandelssystem dahingehend, dass Importeure für im Ausland erworbene Güter aus besonders energieintensiven Sektoren (Stahl, Zement, Strom, Dünger und Aluminium) zum Kauf von CO2-Zertifikaten auf Basis von Emissionsdaten aus dem Ausland verpflichtet werden. Der CBAM soll vor allem eine ambitionierte Klimapolitik der EU befördern. Doch die aktuelle EU-Vorlage erweckt den Eindruck, dass es in erster Linie um die Verbesserung der heimischen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit geht - auf Kosten klimapolitischer Effektivität und auch auf Kosten einer entwicklungspolitischen Perspektive. Die Gesetzesvorlage muss nun im Detail durch die EU-Mitgliedstaaten und das Europäische Parlament ausbuchstabiert werden. Dabei müssen neben der klimapolitischen Effektivität und der Vereinbarkeit mit WTO-Recht die Auswirkungen auf die europäischen Handelspartner und insbesondere auch die armen Entwicklungsländer berücksichtigt werden. Für viele Entwicklungsländer sind infolge des CBAM zusätzliche Exportkosten zu erwarten. Die EU sollte die damit verbundenen Nachteile für Entwicklungsländer sorgfältig bewerten und auf eine entwicklungsfreundliche Ausgestaltung des CBAM hinwirken. Der CBAM sollte im weiteren Gesetzgebungsverfahren der EU entsprechend nachgebessert werden. Die EU muss sicherstellen, dass arme Länder nicht negativ vom CO2-Grenzausgleich belastet werden. Least developed Countries (LDCs) sollten vom CBAM ausgenommen bleiben. Die EU sollte die vom CBAM betroffenen Entwicklungsländer gezielt unterstützen, z. B. durch Kapazitätsaufbau in Bezug auf die Umsetzung des CBAM und Möglichkeiten der CO2-Minderung in den betroffenen Sektoren. Die EU sollte Partnerländer mit niedrigen und mittleren Einkommen bei der Dekarbonisierung ihrer Fertigungsindustrien unterstützen. Die EU sollte die Einnahmen des CO2-Grenzausgleichs im Sinne eines revenue recyclings überwiegend für klimapolitische Zwecke im Ausland verausgaben. Bei der Weiterentwicklung des CBAM sollten die betroffenen Länder durch Konsultationen und diplomatischen Austausch zukünftig stärker eingebunden werden.
    Date: 2021
  20. By: Dai Yamawaki (Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University)
    Abstract: The present study examines the transformation of Russian energy policy ad its performance after market transition. On the basis of historical policy review, it reveals that environmental conservation in energy industry has been repeatedly specified in Russian energy policy after the 1990s whilst its focus has still descended to quantitative expansion of hydrocarbons. In this context, this paper explains this situation from the perspective of coordination mechanism such as market and government. Despite a series of liberal policies during market transition, it becomes clear that Russian energy market has not been completely liberalised in terms of price and privatisation and retained control of the government, whilst the process of energy policy formation and implementation has been highly politicised, especially since the 2000s. This paper also derives some characteristics of Russia in those circumstances, such as an existence of strong state monopoly, recognition of energy as public goods, and environmental incompatibility with the existing growth model, which are raised as propositions given to Russian energy policy and challenges to be overcome for its future sustainable growth.
    Keywords: Russia, energy policy, market, government, transition
    JEL: P28 P52 Q32
    Date: 2021–09
  21. By: Kar, Saibal; Lahiri, Sweta
    Abstract: The impact of macroeconomic shocks, viz. rise in oil price on the sub-national wages of unorganized sector workers is little discussed in the literature. This paper uses three rounds of unit level data to show that moving from formal to informal facilities in the large transport sector in India is generally penalizing for the workers, albeit, higher educational qualification of the individual helps to raise real wages. Rise in oil price may lead to contraction of the informal transport sector owing to direct pass-through effects with varied sub-national welfare impact. Additionally, labor market reforms may increase wage of informal workers in the event of oil price shocks.
    Keywords: Oil price; informal sector; regional transport; district fixed effects; India.
    JEL: F6 O1
    Date: 2021–05–05
  22. By: Asongu, Simplice; Nnanna, Joseph
    Abstract: This study assesses how globalization modulates the effect of governance on CO2 emissions in sub-Saharan African countries. The empirical evidence is based on Generalized Method of Moments. The minimum level (or negative threshold) of FDI required for it to interact with political stability and contribute towards the green economy is 45% of GDP, while 90% of GDP is the maximum level (or positive threshold) required for trade to complement “voice & accountability” in mitigating CO2 emissions. 76 % of GDP and 80 % of GDP are respectively negative trade thresholds for government effectiveness and economic governance. The corresponding negative trade thresholds for the rule of law, corruption-control and institutional governance are respectively, 230% of GDP, 63.5% of GDP and 106.5% of GDP. Actionable openness policy thresholds are provided to inform policy makers on how governance interacts with globalization to promote the green economy.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions; Economic development; Africa
    JEL: C52 O38 O40 O55 P37
    Date: 2021–01
  23. By: Malerba, Daniele
    Abstract: To avoid catastrophic effects on natural and human systems, bold action needs to be taken rapidly to mitigate climate change. Despite this urgency, the currently implemented and planned climate mitigation policies are not sufficient to meet the global targets set in Paris in 2015. One reason for their current inadequate rollout is their perceived negative distributional effects: by increasing the price of goods, climate mitigation policies may increase both poverty and inequality. In addition, they may disrupt labour markets and increase unemployment, especially in sectors and areas dependent on fossil fuels. As a result, public protests in many countries have so far blocked or delayed the implementation of climate policies. New avenues of research, discussed in this Briefing Paper, are turning the tide. First, it has been shown that carbon pricing may not be regressive in developing countries, contrary to the evidence in advanced economies. In a similar positive direction, findings from global-level and cross-country studies assessing the effects of climate mitigation policies on labour markets estimate that reaching climate goals will actually generate a small net increase in jobs. Nonetheless, the price effect of carbon pricing and the impact on the labour market of climate policies will both create losers: increases in prices would worsen poverty as lower-income households would need to pay more to purchase the same goods; similarly, specific countries, sectors, areas and workers (such as low-skilled ones) will witness job disruption or loss. Second, social protection policies can be implemented to compensate households and workers negatively affected by climate policies and to address negative distributional effects. Compensation for higher prices can be achieved through the use of cash transfers to households, which can be funded by revenues from climate policies such as carbon taxes. Full compensation can be achieved by using only a small share (about 30%-50% according to case studies) of the tax revenues generated. The remaining share could be used for other purposes, such as climate-friendly investments. Similarly, when looking at labour market effects, social protection, especially labour market policies such as retraining and unemployment relief, become critical in addressing the needs of negatively affected workers. Clearly, the achievement of environmental and social goals need not be mutually exclusive. With appropriate policy mixes, both poverty and environmental degradation can be reduced. This policy implication needs to be communicated more widely to increase the acceptance of climate polices. This is partially already achieved by recent plans such as the European Green Deal. From a research and policy perspective, more studies in developing countries are needed, including evidence on non-market climate policies and extending beyond the short-term effect of higher prices on the purchasing power of households. Finally, international cooperation can play an important role in policy coordination, financing and building social protection systems in lower-income countries.
    Date: 2021
  24. By: Olubusoye, Olusanya E; Akintande, Olalekan J.; Yaya, OlaOluwa S.; Ogbonna, Ahamuefula; Adenikinju, Adeola F.
    Abstract: The study investigates the impact of uncertainties on energy pricing during the COVID-19 pandemic using five uncertainty measures that include the COVID-Induced Uncertainty (CIU), Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), Global Fear Index (GFI); Volatility Index (VIX), and the Misinformation Index of Uncertainty (MIU). The data, which span between 2-January, 2020 and 19-January, 2021, corresponding to the period of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study finds energy prices to respond significantly to the examined uncertainty measures, with EPU seen to affect the prices of most energy types during the pandemic. We also find predictive potentials inherent in VIX, CIU, and MIU for global energy sources.
    Keywords: Coronavirus pandemic; Energy market; Machine Learning; Uncertainty
    JEL: D8 D81 Q41
    Date: 2021–09–21
  25. By: Randall Wigle, Istvan Kery (Wilfrid Laurier University)
    Date: 2021
  26. By: Stefan Ambec (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Jessica Coria (Unknown)
    Abstract: We propose informational spillovers as a new rationale for the use of multiple policy instruments to mitigate a single externality. We investigate the design of a pollution standard when the firms' abatement costs are unknown and emissions are taxed. A firm might abate pollution beyond what is required by the standard by equalizing its marginal abatement costs to the tax rate, thereby revealing information about its abatement cost. We analyze how a regulator can take advantage of this information to design the standard. In a dynamic setting,the regulator relaxes the initial standard in order to induce more information revelation, which would allow her to set a standard closer to the first best in the future. Updating standards, though, generates a ratchet effect since a lowcost firm might strategically hide its cost by abating no more than required by the standard. We characterize the optimal standard and its update across time depending on the firm's abatement strategy. We illustrate our theoretical results with the case of NOx regulation in Sweden. We find evidence that the firms that pay the NOx tax experience more frequent standard updates and more stringent revisions than those who are exempted.
    Keywords: Policy overlap,Multi-governance,Ratchet effect,Asymmetric information,Tax,Environmental policy,Pollution
    Date: 2021–07
  27. By: Richard Berner; Robert Engle; Hyeyoon Jung
    Abstract: Climate change could impose systemic risks upon the financial sector, either via disruptions in economic activity resulting from the physical impacts of climate change or changes in policies as the economy transitions to a less carbon-intensive environment. We develop a stress testing procedure to test the resilience of financial institutions to climate-related risks. Specifically, we introduce a measure called CRISK, systemic climate risk, which is the expected capital shortfall of a financial institution in a climate stress scenario. We use the measure to study the climate-related risk exposure of large global banks in the collapse of fossil-fuel prices in 2020.
    Keywords: climate risk; financial stability; stress testing
    JEL: Q54 C53 G20
    Date: 2021–09–01
  28. By: Fintan Oeri; Adrian Rinscheid; Aya Kachi
    Abstract: Comparing the results for preference attainment, self-perceived influence and reputational influence, this paper analyzes the relationship between financial resources and lobbying influence. The empirical analysis builds on data from an original survey with 312 Swiss energy policy stakeholders combined with document data from multiple policy consultation submission processes. The results show that the distribution of influence varies substantially depending on the measure. While financial resources for political purposes predict influence across all measures, the relationship is positive only for some. An analysis of indirect effects sheds light on the potential mechanisms that translate financial resources into influence.
    Date: 2021–09
  29. By: Malerba, Daniele
    Abstract: Um katastrophale Folgen für Mensch und Natur zu vermeiden, sind entschlossene Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung des Klimawandels erforderlich. Trotz dieser Dringlichkeit reichen die derzeit umgesetzten und geplanten Maßnahmen zur Bekämpfung des Klimawandels nicht aus, um die 2015 in Paris festgelegten globalen Ziele zu erreichen. Ein Grund für die derzeit unzureichende Umsetzung sind die wahrgenommenen negativen Verteilungseffekte. Durch die Verteuerung von Gütern können Klimaschutzmaßnahmen sowohl die Armut als auch die Ungleichheit steigern. Darüber hinaus können sie zu Störungen auf Arbeitsmärkten und mehr Arbeitslosigkeit führen, insbesondere in Sektoren und Gebieten, die von fossilen Brennstoffen abhängig sind. Infolgedessen haben öffentliche Proteste in vielen Ländern die Umsetzung der Klimapolitik bisher blockiert oder verzögert. Neue Forschungsansätze, die in dieser Analyse und Stellungnahme erörtert werden, sorgen langsam für eine Trendwen-de. Erstens hat sich gezeigt, dass eine CO2-Bepreisung in Entwicklungsländern im Gegensatz zu den hochentwickelten Volkswirtschaften nicht regressiv wirken muss. In eine ähnlich positive Richtung gehen Studien, wonach das Erreichen der Klimaziele zu einem geringen Nettozuwachs an Arbeitsplätzen führen wird. Dennoch werden sowohl der Effekt der CO2-Bepreisung als auch die Auswirkungen der Klimapolitik auf Arbeitsmärkte Verlierer*innen hervorbringen: Preiser-höhungen würden die Armut verschärfen, da einkommensschwächere Haushalte mehr Geld für die gleichen Güter aus-geben müssten; ebenso werden bestimmte Länder, Sektoren, Gebiete und Arbeitnehmer*innen (z. B. Geringqualifizierte) von Arbeitsplatzverlusten oder -störungen betroffen sein. Zweitens können Haushalte und Arbeitnehmer*innen, die von der Klimapolitik beeinträchtigt sind, im Rahmen von Maßnahmen zur sozialen Sicherung entschädigt werden, um negative Verteilungseffekte abzufedern. Höhere Preise können auch durch Geldtransfers an Haushalte kompensiert werden, die nur durch einen Teil der Einnahmen aus klima-politischen Maßnahmen wie einer Kohlenstoffsteuer finanziert werden können. Ähnlich verhält es sich mit Arbeits-markteffekten: Maßnahmen zur sozialen Absicherung, insbesondere arbeitsmarktpolitische Maßnahmen wie Umschu-lungen und Arbeitslosenunterstützung, können deutlich dazu beitragen, die Bedürfnisse der negativ betroffenen Arbeit-nehmer*innen zu erfüllen. Es ist klar, dass ökologische und soziale Ziele sich nicht gegenseitig ausschließen müssen. Mit einem geeigneten Policy-Mix lassen sich sowohl Armut als auch Umweltzerstörung reduzieren. Diese politischen Auswirkungen müssen allerdings breiter kommuniziert werden, um die Akzeptanz von Klimapolitiken zu erhöhen. Dies wird teilweise bereits durch aktuelle Pläne wie den europäischen Green Deal erreicht. Aus Sicht der Forschung und Politik sind mehr Studien in Entwicklungsländern erforderlich, die auch Erkenntnisse über nicht-marktbezogene klimapolitische Maßnahmen her-vorbringen und über den kurzfristigen Effekt höherer Preise auf die Kaufkraft der Haushalte hinausgehen. Nicht zuletzt kann die internationale Zusammenarbeit eine wichtige Rolle bei der politischen Koordinierung, der Finanzierung und dem Aufbau von sozialen Sicherungssystemen in Ländern mit niedrigem Einkommen spielen.
    Date: 2021
  30. By: Nicolo Barbieri; Davide Consoli; Lorenzo Napolitano; Francois Perruchas; Emanuele Pugliese; Angelica Sbardella
    Abstract: The goal of the paper is to elaborate an empirical overview of green technological development in European regions. This is a timely pursuit considering the ambitious commitments stipulated in the recent European Green Deal to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Our analysis is organised in three steps. First, we map the geographical distribution of innovative activities in Europe and profile regions in terms of technological capabilities. Second, we elaborate a metric to identify regions' green innovation potential. Third, we check whether possessing comparative advantage in specific technological domains is associated with a region's capacity to develop green technologies.
    Keywords: Green Technology; European regions; Economic Fitness and Complexity.
    Date: 2021–09–22
  31. By: Koch, Svea; Keijzer, Niels
    Abstract: The European Green Deal conveys the EU's ambition to adjust and "green" its economic growth trajectory and become climate-neutral by 2050, as part of its contribution to the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals. While being ambitiously pursued within the Union's own borders, the Green Deal also has strong external ramifications, as the EU leaves a tremendous ecological footprint in other parts of the world. The EU has referred to this "external dimension" of the Green Deal without further defining it, and appears to primarily understand it as a reflection of the internal strategies and as a call for the EU's partner countries to follow a sustainable recovery trajectory similar to its own. A number of proposed EU domestic strategies (e.g. biodiversity, blue economy or farm-to-fork) contain chapters on global aspects, yet the EU seems to follow a predominantly sectoral logic to implementing the external dimension of the Green Deal. This approach has certain shortcomings. For one, it creates uncertainty for partner countries on how to adapt to the EU's new rules, regulations and standards, and the extent of EU support for adjusting to this. It also creates a vacuum for member state engagement by means of their economy, finance, climate and foreign policies. Last but not least, it lacks clear governance mechanisms to address potentially conflicting policy objectives and to strive for greater coherence of domestic and external EU policies. Ultimately, the EU needs to define the different external dimensions of the Green Deal and promote an integrated approach. Whereas this applies universally to all partner countries of the EU, we focus in particular on developing countries in this paper. We consider these dimensions to be (1) promoting the Green Deal in bilateral and regional cooperation, (2) ensuring coherence and addressing negative spillovers, both in trade and domestic policies and (3) the EU's global leadership in multilateral fora. Combining those three dimensions and governing them across EU institutions and member states allows for the external response to become an integral part of the EU Green Deal. Such an integrated approach allows the EU to claim leadership vis-à-vis other global powers, make credible commitments in multilateral fora for successful "green diplomacy", and use its market and regulatory power to transform itself and others. In its bilateral relationships, the EU needs to strike a "deal" in the true sense of the word: together formulating and "owning" cooperation agendas that are clear in terms of what is in it for the EU's partners and how the EU will cushion the potential negative adjustment costs of partners. Overall, the EU needs to avoid a "projectisation" of the external dimension of the Green Deal and clarify how the different Commission services and member states aim to work together to deliver the Green Deal, including through its various external policy areas, of which development is just one.
    Date: 2021
  32. By: Frédéric Le Roy (Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School); Sea Matilda Bez (Labex Entreprendre - UM - Université de Montpellier); Johanna Gast (Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School)
    Abstract: Recent research has highlighted the importance of management for the success of dyadic coopetition strategies. Coopetition, however, does not always occur in dyadic settings. Oligo-coopetition strategies, i.e., coopetition strategy among more than two but only a small number of coopetitors, and its management remain largely understudied. Oligo-coopetition strategy simultaneously increases both the potential benefits and risks of coopetition. Past research highlights the key role of third parties in managing oligo-coopetition. However, what happens when there is no such third party? We investigate this question through a longitudinal case study of Total Group in its oil and gas exploration and production projects. The results outline how companies manage oligo-coopetition strategy without third parties. More precisely, the results first highlight three strategies of oligo-coopetition: (1) "shareholder" coopetition, (2) "vertical" coopetition, and (3) "combined vertical and horizontal" coopetition. The results, second, outline the specific organizational designs and management principles associated with these three strategies of coopetition.
    Keywords: Oligo-coopetition strategies,Coopetitive projects,Coopetition management,Organizational design
    Date: 2021
  33. By: Verena Ehrler (DLR - Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Berlin]); Pierre Camilleri
    Abstract: So far, electric vehicles have not become a wide-spread alternative for the long-time dominating diesel vehicles in urban logistics. If this is to be changed, it is important to identify logistics applications for electric vehicles which are not geographically limited, to understand what improves user acceptance and how to measure the attractiveness of electric vehicles for users. The aim of this research is to contribute to answering these questions, based on evidence from France and Germany. For this purpose, findings from empirical research carried out in the form of pilot studies and surveys in Germany is analysed as the basis for the identification of user acceptance. By means of a basic model data from research in France is analysed, in order to identify, in how far incentives, technical and market developments contribute to an improved attractiveness and hence spread of electromobility for urban logistics. Findings from the German pilots and the French data are combined and compared. In a comparative analysis it is discussed whether the thesis can be confirmed, that electromobility is or will be a valid alternative for urban logistics in general.
    Abstract: Jusqu'à présent, les véhicules électriques ne sont pas devenus une alternative largement répandue aux véhicules diesel qui dominent depuis longtemps la logistique urbaine. Pour faciliter un changement rapide vers les véhicules électriques, il est important d'identifier les applications logistiques qui ne sont pas limitées géographiquement, de comprendre les aspects qui améliorent l'acceptation, et de mesurer les avantages des véhicules électriques pour leurs utilisateurs. L'objectif de cette recherche est de contribuer à des réponses à ces questions, en se basant sur des projets réalisés en France et en Allemagne. Dans la recherche présentée, les résultats des études pilotes et d'enquêtes en Allemagne sont analysés comme base pour l'identification de l'acceptation par les utilisateurs. Au moyen d'un modèle de base, des données issues d'une enquête en France sont analysées, afin d'identifier dans quelle mesure les incitations, les développements techniques et commerciaux contribuent à améliorer l'attractivité et donc la diffusion de l'électromobilité pour la logistique urbaine. Les résultats des projets pilotes allemands et des données françaises sont combinés et comparés. Dans une analyse comparative, il est discuté si la thèse peut être confirmée, que l'électromobilité est ou sera une alternative valable pour la logistique urbaine en général.
    Keywords: urban logistics,electric vehicles,freight transport,comparison France-Germany,logistique urbaine,véhicules électriques,transport de marchandises,comparaison franco-allemande
    Date: 2021–09–22
  34. By: Patricia Cortés; Semiray Kasoolu; Carolina Pan
    Abstract: In the last decade, Gulf countries have imposed hiring quotas to promote the participation of natives in the private sector and address high levels of unemployment, particularly among women and the youth. This paper explores how one such policy, Nitaqat in Saudi Arabia, affected the outcomes of exporting firms, the most productive sector of the non-oil economy. We find that whereas the policy was successful in increasing the employment of Saudi nationals by these firms, it came at a high cost. In the year following the announcement of the policy, relative to firms above the quota, firms below the quota were 1.5 percentage points more likely to exit the market, 7 percentage points less likely to export, and conditional on exporting, the value of their exports fell by 14 percent. Additionally, surviving treated firms reduced their labor force by 10 percent. We find that to comply with the policy, firms hired mostly lower-wage, low-skilled Saudis. The policy doubled the share of women in treated firms. Importantly, we find that these short-term effects persisted for at least three years after the policy’s implementation.
    JEL: J21 J61
    Date: 2021–09
  35. By: Aleksandrova, Mariya
    Abstract: Social protection plays a central role in achieving several of the social and environmental goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. As a result, this policy area is gaining increased recognition at the nexus of global climate change and development debates. Various social protection instruments are deemed to have the potential to increase the coping, adaptive and transformative capacities of vulnerable groups to face the impacts of climate change, facilitate a just transition to a green economy and help achieve environmental protection objectives, build intergenerational resilience and address non-economic climate impacts. Nevertheless, many developing countries that are vulnerable to climate change have underdeveloped social protection systems that are yet to be climate proofed. This can be done by incorporating climate change risks and opportunities into social protection policies, strategies and mechanisms. There is a large financing gap when it comes to increasing social protection coverage, establishing national social protection floors and mainstreaming climate risk into the sector. This necessitates substantial and additional sources of financing. This briefing paper discusses the current and future potential of the core multilateral climate funds established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in financing social protection in response to climate change. It further emphasises the importance of integrating social protection in countries' Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to access climate finance and provides recommendations for governments, development cooperation entities and funding institutions. To date, investments through the Green Climate Fund (GCF), the Adaptation Fund (AF), and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) for integrating climate change considerations into social protection programmes, policies and mechanisms are generally lacking, even though social transfers and subsidies have often been used to implement climate change projects. Yet, these climate funds can support governments in mainstreaming climate risk into social protection-related development spheres and aligning social security sectoral objectives with national climate and environmental strategies. This, in turn, can help countries increase their capacity to tackle the social and intangible costs of climate change. This paper makes the following recommendations: Funding institutions should make explicit reference to opportunities for financing projects on social protection under their mitigation and risk management portfolios. National governments and international cooperation entities should use climate funds to invest in strengthening social protection systems, work towards improved coordination of social protection initiatives, and utilise the potential of NDCs for climate-proofing the social protection sector. Proponents of social protection should make the most of two major opportunities to boost climate action in the social protection domain: the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26) and the momentum to build back better after the COVID-19 crisis.
    Date: 2021
  36. By: Sujata, Uwe (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weyh, Antje (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Lenhardt, Julian
    Abstract: "Die Automobilindustrie steht vor großen Herausforderungen. Neben den enormen konjunkturellen Problemen, die durch die Corona-Pandemie entstanden sind, müssen sich die Automobilhersteller auf große strukturelle Veränderungen einstellen. Durch die umweltpolitischen Vorgaben der EU sind Automobilhersteller dazu angehalten, umweltfreundlichere Autos zu produzieren. Die meisten deutschen Automobilhersteller verfolgen in diesem Zusammenhang die Herstellung batterieelektrischer Fahrzeuge, die zumindest während des Fahrbetriebes keine CO2-Emissionen haben. Im Zuge der Umstellung verändert sich nicht nur die Antriebsart, sondern das gesamte Fahrzeug, was gleichzeitig neue und veränderte Produktionsabläufe und Zuliefererstrukturen nach sich zieht. Da Fahrzeuge mit reinem Elektroantrieb eine geringere Komplexität aufweisen und weniger Teile als Verbrennerfahrzeuge benötigen, sinkt der Personalbedarf je hergestelltem Fahrzeug. Entscheidend für den weiteren Personalbedarf ist, wie schnell die Umstellung in den Automobilwerken erfolgt und wie sich die Nachfrage nach Elektrofahrzeugen entwickeln wird. Der vorliegende Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit den möglichen Zukunftsaussichten der sächsischen Automobilindustrie hinsichtlich der vollständigen oder teilweisen Umstellung der Werke vor Ort auf batterieelektrische Fahrzeuge. Dabei erfolgt nicht nur die Betrachtung der Kernbranche, es werden auch Zuliefererbranchen berücksichtigt. Gut die Hälfte der Beschäftigten, die in Sachsen im oder für den Fahrzeugbau tätig sind, arbeiten in Wirtschaftszweigen, die entweder von der Umstellung profitieren können oder in denen zukünftig Risiken z. B. hinsichtlich Umsatz und Beschäftigung bestehen. Die anderen 50 Prozent sind in Bereichen tätig, in denen sich durch die Umstellung entweder keine oder nur geringe Veränderungen ergeben oder in denen sich Chancen und Risiken etwa die Waage halten. Auch zeigen Wirtschaftszweige, denen im Zuge der Umstellung auf Elektromobilität Chancen zugeschrieben werden, eine bessere Beschäftigungsentwicklung in den vergangenen zwölf Jahren als Branchen, die nach unserer Daten- und Literaturanalyse mit Risiken rechnen müssen." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)
    Keywords: Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; Sachsen ; Zwickau ; Elektromobilität ; Auswirkungen ; Automobilindustrie ; Automobilindustrie ; Beschäftigungseffekte ; Beschäftigungsentwicklung ; Beschäftigungsentwicklung ; Elektrotechnik ; Kraftfahrzeug ; Produktionsumstellung ; sektorale Verteilung ; Strukturwandel ; Volkswagenwerk ; Wertschöpfung ; Zulieferer ; Sachsen ; 2007-2019
    Date: 2020–05–26
  37. By: Meergans, Franziska; Aue, Christina; Knieper, Christian; Kochendörfer, Sascha; Lenschow, Andrea; Pahl-Wostl, Claudia
    Abstract: Diese Veröffentlichung stellt eine von sechs Analysen sektorenübergreifender Herausforderungen für Wasser-Governance dar, die als Teil des STEER-Forschungsprojekts durchgeführt wurden und deren Resultate in separaten Analysen und Stellungnahmen vorliegen. Wenngleich die Land- und Ernährungswirtschaft der Weser-Ems-Region in Niedersachsen wirtschaftlichen Wohlstand gebracht hat, geht sie doch auch mit Herausforderungen für die Umwelt, speziell für die Wasserqualität einher. Die intensive Tierhaltung gilt als Hauptverursacher der Nitratbelastung im Grundwasser - eine Entwicklung, die durch die Förderung nicht-fossiler Energieträger und den Anstieg der Biogasproduktion in der Region noch verstärkt wurde. Vor diesem Hintergrund spielt die Koordination der Sektoren Wasser, (Bio-)Energie und Landwirtschaft eine zentrale Rolle für ein integriertes Wasserressourcenmanagement (IWRM) in der Region und damit für die Verringerung von Nitrat im Grundwasser. Die Analyse von Koordination und Kooperation lokaler und regionaler Akteur*innen unter Berücksichtigung von i) rechtlich-regulatorischen Strukturen, ii) Prozessen der Wasserbewirtschaftung und iii) sozial-ökologischen Rahmenbedingungen bildet die Grundlage des vorliegenden Beitrags. Sie zeigt, dass sich der Grundwasserschutz in der Weser-Ems-Region seit zwei Jahrzehnten gleichbleibend im Spannungsfeld kaum abgestimmter Politiken aus den Sektoren Wasser, (Bio-)Energie und Landwirtschaft befindet und die Problemlage entsprechend unverändert drängend ist. Die unzureichende Abstimmung des Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes (EEG) und der Düngeverordnung in Deutschland steht im Widerspruch zu dem international wachsenden Bewusstsein bezüglich kohärenter und integrierter politischer Lösungen beim Management natürlicher Ressourcen wie Grundwasser. Jahrelang orientierte sich die für das Wasserressourcenmanagement zentrale Landwirtschaftspolitik in Deutschland allein an der Wirtschaftlichkeit der Landwirtschaft und vernachlässigte die erheblichen sozialen und ökologischen Kosten. Inwiefern mit der Novellierung der Düngeverordnung 2020 und der Ausweisung nitratsensibler Gebiete eine erfolgreiche Integration gelungen ist, lässt sich heute noch nicht bewerten. Für eine langfristige Verringerung der Nitratbelastung in der Weser-Ems-Region und vergleichbaren Regionen in Deutschland empfiehlt der vorliegende Beitrag: * eine besser abgestimmte Gesetzgebung in den Sektoren Wasser, Energie und Landwirtschaft, * die Ausweitung und Förderung erfolgreicher (lokaler) Projekte (z.B. gesamtbetrieblicher Ansatz), * eine Transformation der intensiven Landwirtschaft hin zu Geschäftsmodellen, die Wirtschaftlichkeit mit ökologischer Verträglichkeit verbinden (z.B. Ökolandbau), * begleitet durch die Einbindung von Praxiswissen bei der Entwicklung neuer Politikinstrumente sowie * die Stärkung von Gewässerschutzthemen in der landwirtschaftlichen Ausbildung.
    Date: 2020
  38. By: Krieger, Bastian; Zipperer, Vera
    Abstract: Green public procurement has gained high political priority and is argued to be an effective demand-side policy to trigger environmental innovations. Its implementation usually takes the form of environmental award selection criteria in public procurement tenders. However, there is no direct or broad empirical evidence on its innovation impact. There are even doubts about its effectiveness as an innovation policy tool, as it does not require innovations as part of its contracts and might only influence the selection of awardees in public procurement tenders. We construct a novel firm-level dataset to investigate the effect of winning green public procurement awards on firms' introduction of environmental innovations. Employing cross-sectional difference-in-differences methods, we find that winning green public procurement awards increases a firm's probability of introducing more environmentally friendly products on average by 20 percentage points. We show that this effect is driven by small and medium-sized firms and is not significant for larger firms. There is no significant effect on the introduction of more environmentally friendly processes.
    Keywords: Green Public Procurement,Environmental Innovation,Demand Pull
    JEL: H57 O38 Q55 Q58
    Date: 2021
  39. By: Boucekkine, R.; Fabbri, G.; Federico, S.; Gozzi, F.
    Abstract: This work targets the class of spatiotemporal problems with free riding under natural (pollution, epidemics...etc) diffusion and spatial externalities. Such a class brings to study a family of differential games in continuous time and space. In the fundamental pollution free riding problem we develop a strategy to solve completely the associated game contributing to the associated debate on environmental federalism. We depart from the preexisting literature in several respects. First, instead of assuming ad hoc pollution diffusion schemes across space, we consider a realistic spatiotemporal law of motion for pollution (diffusion and advection). Second, we tackle spatiotemporal non-cooperative (and cooperative) differential games instead of static games in the related literature. Precisely, we consider a circle partitioned into several states where a local authority decides autonomously about its investment, production and depollution strategies over time knowing that investment/production generates pollution, and pollution is transboundary. The time horizon is innite. Third, we allow for a rich set of geographic heterogeneities across states while the literature assumes identical states. We solve analytically the induced non-cooperative differential game under decentralization and fully characterize the resulting long-term spatial distributions. In particular, we prove that there exist a Perfect Markov Equilibrium, unique among the class of the affine feedbacks. We further provide with full exploration of the free riding problem, reected in the so-called border effects. Finally, we explore how geographic discrepancies (the most elementary being the asymmetry of players) affect the shape of the border effects. We check in particular that our model is consistent with the set of stylized facts put forward by the related empirical literature.
    JEL: Q53 R12 O13 C72 C61 O44
    Date: 2021
  40. By: Shaheen, Susan; Cohen, Adam
    Abstract: Urban Air Mobility (UAM, also known as advanced air mobility) is an emerging concept that envisions a safe, sustainable, affordable, and accessible air transportation system for emergency management, cargo delivery, and passenger mobility within or traversing a metropolitan area. While numerous societal concerns have been raised about these approaches (e.g., privacy, safety, security, social equity), on-demand aviation has the potential to provide options for emergency services, goods delivery, and passenger mobility in urban and rural areas using small piloted and autonomous aircraft. This chapter provides a short overview of developments in on-demand aviation and a discussion of the potential impacts and challenges of UAM on communities. Potential challenges include safety, financial, and community acceptance, among others. Research that seeks to understand the potential societal barriers can help to identify challenges and mitigate potential UAM concerns. Research on the potential impacts of UAM, coupled with thoughtful planning and implementation, are needed to balance commercial interests, technology innovation, and the public good.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2021–01–01

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