nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2020‒10‒26
47 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Supply-side Climate Policy for Crude Oil Producers By Paul Zakkour; Wolfgang Heidug
  2. Modeling and Probababilistic Forecasting of Natural Gas Prices By Jonathan Berrisch; Florian Ziel
  3. Paris agreement on climate change and the possible impacts on Brazilian meat and dairy sectors By Alvim, Augusto; Sanguinet, Eduardo
  4. The Greenness of Rural and Urban Pakistan Over Time: Household Energy Use and Carbon Emissions By Hasan, Syed M.; Zhang, Wendong
  5. The future costs of renewable electricity generation technologies in Lebanon : what projections for 2030 ? By Nour Wehbe
  6. A stakeholder analysis of investments for wind power electricity generation in Ontario By Pejman Bahramian; Glenn Jenkins; Frank Milne
  7. Carbon-neutral future with sector-coupling; relative role of different mitigation options in energy sector By Behrang Shirizadeh
  8. Kill Bill or Tax: An Analysis of Alternative CO2 Price Floor Optionsfor EU Member States By Christoph Boehringer; Carolyn Fischer
  9. How Does Climate Change Affect the Transition of Power Systems: The Case of Germany By Alexander Golub; Kristina Govorukha; Philip Mayer; Dirk Rübbelke
  10. Consequences of COVID-19 on the social isolation of the Chinese economy: accounting for the role of reduction in carbon emissions By Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel; Driha, Oana M.; Bekun, Festus; Sinha, Avik; Fatai Adedoyin, Festus
  11. Does the nudge effect persist? Evidence from a fi eld experiment using social comparison message in China By Chen, Haoyan; Qin, Botao
  12. COVID-19 Mortality and Contemporaneous Air Pollution By Wes Austin; Stefano Carattini; John Gomez Mahecha; Michael Pesko
  13. Optimal Order Execution in Intraday Markets: Minimizing Costs in Trade Trajectories By Christopher Kath; Florian Ziel
  14. Evaluation of the DICE climate-economy integrated assessment model By Greaves, Gerry
  15. China’s Energy Law Draft and the Reform of its Electricity Supply Sector By Xu, J.; Pollitt, M.; Xie, B-C.; Yang, C-H.
  16. Green Hydrogen: the Holy Grail of Decarbonisation? An Analysis of the Technical and Geopolitical Implications of the Future Hydrogen Economy By Rossana Scita; Pier Paolo Raimondi; Michel Noussan
  17. Electricity Sector Liberalization in Eqypt: Features, Challenges, and Opportunities for Market Integration By Shahid Hasan; Turki Al-Aqeel; Hafez El Salmawy
  18. Non-Cooperative Climate Policies among Asymmetric Countries: Production- versus Consumption-based Carbon Taxes By Noha Elboghdadly; Michael Finus
  19. An integrated transmission and distribution test system for evaluation of transactive energy designs By Nguyen, Hieu Trung; Battula, Swathi; Takkala, Rohit Reddy; Wang, Zhaoyu; Tesfatsion, Leigh
  20. Local Power Markets By Pio Baake; Sebastian Schwenen; Christian von Hirschhausen
  21. Price responsiveness of supply and acreage in the EU vegetable oil markets: policy implications By Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Di Gioia, Leonardo; Lamonaca, Emilia
  22. A simulation-based estimation model of household electricity demand and appliance ownership By Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel; Pachauri, Shonali
  23. China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal will require up to 2.5 GtCO2/year of negative emissions technology deployment By Jay Fuhrman; Andres F. Clarens; Haewon McJeon; Pralit Patel; Scott C. Doney; William M. Shobe; Shreekar Pradhan
  24. The relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from Switzerland By Cosimo Magazzino; Marco Mele; Nicolas Schneider; Guillaume Vallet
  25. Pledge and implement bargaining in the Paris Agreement on climate change By Alejandro Caparrós
  26. How Does the EU ETS Reform Impact Allowance Prices? The Role of Myopia, Hedging Requirements and the Hotelling Rule By Johanna Bocklet; Martin Hintermayer
  27. Do Commodity Price Shocks Cause Armed Conflicts? A Meta-Analysis of Natural Experiments By Graeme Graeme Blair; Darin Christensen; Aaron Rudkin
  28. Granger-causal relationship between islamic stock markets and oil prices: a case study of Malaysia By Musaeva, Gulzhan; Masih, Mansur
  29. Resource Blessing? Oil, Risk, and Religious Communities as Social Insurance in the U.S. South By Ferrara, Andreas; Testa, Patrick A.
  30. Oil Price Volatility and Stock Returns: Evidence from Three Oil-price Wars By Mushtaq Hussain Khan; Junaid Ahmed; Mazhar Mughal
  31. Reference point adaptation and air quality – Experimental evidence with anti-PM 2.5 facemasks from China By Zhang, nan; Qin, Botao
  32. Time Series Analyses of Global Oil Prices: Shocks, Effects and Predictability By Ruths Sion, Sebastian
  33. State of the Art Survey of Deep Learning and Machine Learning Models for Smart Cities and Urban Sustainability By Saeed Nosratabadi; Amir Mosavi; Ramin Keivani; Sina Ardabili; Farshid Aram
  34. Powering Work from Home By Steve Cicala
  35. Biomass for Bioenergy: Optimal Collection Mechanisms and Pricing when Feedstock Supply Does Not Equal Availability By Li, Chao; Hayes, Dermot J.; Jacobs, Keri L.
  36. Braided Cobwebs: Cautionary Tales for Dynamic Pricing in Retail Electric Power Markets By Thomas, Auswin George; Tesfatsion, Leigh
  37. Development of methodological approaches to assessing the effectiveness of investments in infrastructure, taking into account foreign experience By Melnikov, Roman (Мельников, Роман); Koptelov, Matvey (Коптелов, Матвей); Ginoyan, Agrishti (Гиноян, Агришти); Krasnoshchekov, Valentin (Краснощеков, Валентин); Spitsyna, Tatiana (Спицына, Татьяна)
  38. Intergenerational Equity, the Public Trust Doctrine, Norway and North Sea Oil By Basu, Rahul
  39. Cost, performance and energy consumption of 5G fixed wireless access versus pure fiber-based broadband in Sweden By Li, Jie; Forzati, Marco
  40. Circular Debt—an Unfortunate Misnomer By Afia Malik
  41. Fiscal Multipliers for Saudi Arabia Revisited By H.E. Dr. Majid Al Moneef; Fakhri Hasanov
  42. Circular Economy can Provide a Sustainable Global Society By Mohajan, Haradhan
  43. Sulfur emission reduction in cargo ship manufacturers and shipping companies based on MARPOL Annex VI By Abraham Londono Pineda; Jose Alejandro Cano; Lissett Pulgarin
  44. The Basel Committee’s Initiatives on Climate-Related Financial Risks By Kevin J. Stiroh
  45. An Overall Customer Satisfaction score for GB energy suppliers By Littlechild, S.
  46. Encouraging Brilliance in the Workplace: The Case of the Petroleum Sector in Egypt By Radi, Sherihan
  47. Some People Feel the Rain, Others Just Get Wet: An Analysis of Regional Differences in the Effects of Weather on Cycling By Kathrin Goldmann; Jan Wessel

  1. By: Paul Zakkour; Wolfgang Heidug (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: This paper considers the potential for supply-side climate policy to increase climate action, with a focus on crude oil producers and exporting countries. To date, supply-side policies have not been widely used in efforts to tackle climate change, and the emerging dialogue on the topic tends to focus solely on measures that can curtail and ultimately end fossil fuel production. These strategies, in combination with comprehensive and sustained demand-side climate policy actions, pose a threat to the value of fossil fuel resource endowments held by countries and companies alike.
    Keywords: Climate mitigation, CO2 emissions, Energy diversification,
    Date: 2020–09–21
  2. By: Jonathan Berrisch; Florian Ziel
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the problem of modeling and forecasting European Day-Ahead and Month-Ahead natural gas prices. For this, we propose two distinct probabilistic models that can be utilized in risk- and portfolio management. We use daily pricing data ranging from 2011 to 2020. Extensive descriptive data analysis shows that both time series feature heavy tails, conditional heteroscedasticity, and show asymmetric behavior in their differences. We propose state-space time series models under skewed, heavy-tailed distribution to capture all stylized facts in the data. They include the impact of autocorrelation, seasonality, risk premia, temperature, storage levels, the price of European Emission Allowances, and related fuel prices of oil, coal, and electricity. We provide a rigorous model diagnostic and interpret all model components in detail. Additionally, we conduct a probabilistic forecasting study with significance test and compare the predictive performance against literature benchmarks. The proposed Day-Ahead (Month-Ahead) model leads to a $13\%$ ($9$\%) reduction in out of sample CRPS compared to the best performing benchmark model, mainly due to adequate modeling of the volatility and heavy tails.
    Date: 2020–10
  3. By: Alvim, Augusto; Sanguinet, Eduardo
    Abstract: This study analyzes the impacts of reducing GHG emissions on the Meat and Dairy sectors. For this purpose, the Brazilian targets for the reduction of GHG emissions ratified in the Paris Agreement in 2015 are considered as starting points. To achieve this goal, General Equilibrium Model (GTAP) is used, which allows the inclusion of carbon taxes and the construction of alternative scenarios using GWP and GTP as GHG emissions measures. Four scenarios are analyzed. Scenario 1 applies carbon taxes upon Meat & Dairy sector and no carbon taxes on the other Brazilian sectors. Scenario 2 simulates only carbon taxes upon the Energy sector and Scenario 3 equal carbon taxes on all sectors (20$, 40$ and 60$ per tons of CO2). Scenario 4 considers the application of carbon taxes to the Meat & Dairy, Grains & Crops lower than to the Energy and Industry & Services sectors. For all scenarios is analyzed the main effects on sector emissions but also on production, trade and the Brazilian GPD. In general terms, the results show that: the Scenario 3 may be the most appropriate when we use the GTP measures to estimate GHG emissions. In this case, the reduction in GDP are not as intense as when are used GWP, though the exportation of the Beef and Dairy are also expected to drop. The fourth Scenario seems to be the most adequate in terms of cost distribution among the various economic sectors in Brazil, only when the GWP is considered.
    Keywords: Meat and dairy, Carbon taxes, GHG emissions, GTAP.
    JEL: F1 F13 Q1 Q17
    Date: 2020–03–10
  4. By: Hasan, Syed M.; Zhang, Wendong
    Abstract: This study provides the first empirical estimates of household energy use and carbon emissions from 2005 to 2014 for all Pakistani rural and urban districts, using four rounds of nationwide household survey data. This is significant, because Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world and has the highest population growth rate and urbanization level of all South Asian countries. Following Glaeser and Kahn (2010), we estimate and predict carbon emissions every 2 years during 2005-2014 for each district in Pakistan using household-level survey data on energy consumption. We then rank all districts based on the predicted carbon emissions for representative median households, rating districts with less per capita carbon emissions as greener, and finally explain the changes in the district’s “greenness†rank over time. We find, first, that Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, has the higher per capita emissions, at 1 ton per year in 2013-14, and emission hotspots tend to cluster around urban centers and remote rural areas with heavy reliance on firewood use. Although Pakistan’s major cities’ household carbon emissions are still drastically lower than in the U.S., they are comparable to, and sometimes even higher than, cities in India and China. Second, our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for carbon emissions over time using multiple rounds of surveys—as opposed to focusing on a single year—because 52% of Pakistani districts experienced changes in their greenness rankings over the past decade. Finally, we show that while electricity, gasoline, and natural gas consumption drive carbon emissions in urban districts in Pakistan, firewood accounts for half of all carbon emissions in rural areas in KP and Balochistan provinces. Ignoring household garbage, therefore, would lead to underestimation of the urban carbon footprint by at least 15% in developing countries such as Pakistan.
    Date: 2018–12–01
  5. By: Nour Wehbe (UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UM - Université de Montpellier - UM3 - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement)
    Abstract: This paper presents the findings of our study on forecasting the levelized cost of electricity of different electricity generation technologies including renewable energy (solar PV, hydropower, biomass and wind) until 2030. Usually, the cost of electrical generation from renewable and conventional sources are compared by using the LCOE method (Levelized Cost Of Energy). In general, the LCOE is calculated based on the assumptions for each technology. In this paper, we evaluate the LCOE of the various electricity generation techniques for the case of Lebanon. The study predicts future evolution of these costs in Lebanon until 2030 according to specic assumptions related to each technology and taking into account the triple aspects : technical, economic and environmental. The generation costs don't depend only on investment, maintenance and fuel costs, but also on the cost of carbon emitted by each technology per unit of the electricity produced. We focus our analysis on these assumptions and the impact of their variability on the cost by using sensitivity analysis. Our study shows that by 2030, renewable generation technologies will remain more expensive than fossil-fueled technologies. However, within certain measures taken by the State, as integration of a carbon price, renewable energy resources could emerge strongly in the electricity generation investment planning and become much competitive.
    Abstract: Cet article présente des prévisions du coût moyen de production de cinq technologies qui pourraient contribuer d'une manière significative à la production d'électricité au Liban : les centrales à gaz (cycle ouvert et cycle combiné), les centrales solaires (technologie photovoltaïque), les parcs éoliens, les centrqles hydroélectriques et les centrales à déchets. Habituellement, la comparaison du coût des sources renouvelables et conventionnelles se fait en utilisant la méthode du LCOE (Levelized Cost Of Energy). Dans cet article, nous estimons l'évolution future de ces coûts au Liban jusqu'en 2030 selon des hypothèses spécifiques liées à chaque technologie et en tenant compte du triple aspect: technique, économique et environnemental. Les coûts de production ne dépendent pas seulement des coûts d'investissement, d'entretien et de carburant, mais aussi du coût du carbone émis par unité d'électricité produite. Nous nous focalisons ainsi dans notre analyse sur l'impact de leur variabilité sur le coût en utilisant des analyses de sensibilité. Les principaux résultats montrent que d'ici 2030, les technologies de production renouvelable resteront plus chères que les technologies à combustibles fossiles. Cependant, dans le cadre de certaines mesures prises par l'État, les énergies renouvelables pourraient émerger fortement dans la planification des investissements et devenir très compétitives dans le contexte libanais.
    Keywords: Electricity of Lebanon,Renewable Energy Market,Levelized Cost Of Electricity,Cost Analysis
    Date: 2021–01–30
  6. By: Pejman Bahramian (Department of Economics, Queen's University); Glenn Jenkins; Frank Milne (Queen's University)
    Abstract: This study uses an ex-post evaluation of the grid-connected wind projects in Ontario, Canada, to quantify the stakeholder impacts of such renewable energy projects. Our study includes a financial, economic and stakeholder analysis of these wind farms. The analysis sheds light on the distributional impacts that arise when there is a significant gap between the incentives created by the financial price paid for electricity generation and the economic value of the electricity generated. The analysis shows that the negotiated power purchase agreements (PPAs) have resulted in a negative outcome for the economy in all circumstances. It is found that the present value of the economic costs is at least three times the present value of the economic benefits, including the global benefits from the reduced CO2 emissions. This loss is borne by all the stakeholders of the electricity system, except the private owners of the wind farms. The losers are primarily the electricity consumers followed by the governments. The Ontario Electricity Rebate (OER) programme, which is financed by increased government borrowing, has the effect of transferring a large share of the costs incurred to promote investments in wind power to future generations of taxpayers in Ontario.
    Keywords: economic analysis, electricity, Ontario, wind power
    JEL: O55 D61 Q42
    Date: 2020–10
  7. By: Behrang Shirizadeh (CIRED / TOTAL S.A.)
    Abstract: Many studies have analyzed the energy mix at national and continental scales, suggesting different low-carbon mixes for future energy systems. While there is abundant literature on the energy mix for different sectors, fewer studies deal with achieving the goal of deep decarbonization using sector-coupling. Moreover, they suffer from limited representation of emerging low-carbon options and incomplete coverage of the main energy sectors. We develop an integrated optimization of dispatch and investment model for the whole energy sector, enabling full sector-coupling and applying this model to the French energy system we study the synergies of sector-coupling among different energy vectors, as well as the role of each low-carbon energy supply technology and the impact of the social cost of carbon in reaching an optimal carbon-neutral or negative CO2-emitting energy mix of France in 2050. Our results suggest that a social cost of carbon of €200/tCO2 will achieve carbon-neutrality, and accounting for unfavorable future conditions, €300/tCO2 can assure this target. In the presence of the social cost of carbon renewables become the main source of the primary energy supply (up to more than 80% of the primary energy supply). Exclusion of nuclear energy from the energy supply side has a minor impact on both emission reduction and cost-optimality. A fully electrified heat sector and a highly gas-dependent transport sector fueled with renewable gas help reaching carbon-neutrality at the lowest cost.
    Keywords: Energy systems modelling, Social cost of carbon, Sector-coupling, Renewables, Large-scale renewable integration
    JEL: Q47 Q48 Q41 C61 H23
    Date: 2020
  8. By: Christoph Boehringer (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Carolyn Fischer
    Abstract: Several EU member states are exploring options for setting minimum domestic carbon prices within the EU Emission Trading System (ETS). First, a “TAX” policy would introduce a carbon tax equal to the difference between the prevailing ETS price and the targeted minimum price. Second, a national auction reserve price would “KILL” allowances by invalidating them until the ETS price equalled the national minimum price. Third, a government could require domestic overcompliance and “BILL” covered entities for extra allowances per ton of emissions, thereby increasing demand for allowances and pulling up the ETS price. We explore the implications of these policy options on national and ETS-wide carbon prices, revenues from emissions allowances, emissions, and economic welfare. We find that a national government’s preferred unilateral policy will depend on the extent to which it values the fiscal benefits of revenues, which favor TAX or to a lesser degree BILL, versus climate benefits, which favor KILL and also BILL, particularly for jurisdictions with more emissions to leverage for overcompliance. Our analysis can be generalized to other multilateral cap-and-trade systems where participants pursue more stringent internal emission pricing through unilateral policies.
    Keywords: CO2 price floor, emissions trading, carbon tax
    Date: 2020–10
  9. By: Alexander Golub; Kristina Govorukha; Philip Mayer; Dirk Rübbelke
    Abstract: The effects of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and droughts, are taken into account in both global and European policies. Accordingly, the protection of critical infrastructures and in particular, the resilience of the energy sector was the subject of intense research. There are regional differences in the degree to which extreme events affect the energy sector. In Northern Europe, their intensity has increased dramatically within a decade. In our analysis, we identify emerging risks of extreme weather events, in particular, droughts and high temperatures, for the German power sector. Our analysis is based on extensive datasets comprising temperature and drought data for the last 40 years. We find evidence of a higher frequency of power plants outages as a consequence of droughts and high temperatures. We investigate increases in the wholesale electricity price and price volatility and develop a capacity-adjusted drought index. The results are used to assess the monetary loss of power plant outages due to heat waves and droughts. We stress that increasing frequencies of such extreme weather events will aggravate the observed problem, especially with respect to the transition of the power sector.
    Keywords: electricity, utilities, thermal generation, climate change, droughts, weather extremes
    JEL: Q40 Q41 Q54
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel; Driha, Oana M.; Bekun, Festus; Sinha, Avik; Fatai Adedoyin, Festus
    Abstract: The main contribution of the present study to the energy literature is linked to the interaction between economic growth and pollution emission amidst globalization. In contrast to the existing studies, this research explores the effects of economic and social isolation as dimensions of globalization. This allows underpinning the effects on the Chinese economic development of the isolation phenomenon as a consequence of coronavirus (COVID-19). To this end, annual time frequency data is used to achieve the hypothesized claims. The study resolutions include (i) The existence of a long-run association between the outlined variables (ii) The long-run estimates suggest that the Chinese economy over the investigated period, is inelastic to pollutant-driven economic growth as reported by the dynamic ordinary least squares, fully modified ordinary least squares and canonical regressions with a magnitude of 0.09%. (iii) The Chinese isolation is less responsive to its economic growth while the country political willpower is elastic as demonstrated by current government commitment to dampen the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is marked by the aggressive response by the government officials resolute by flattening the exponential impact of the pandemic. Based on these robust results some far-reaching policy implication(s) are underlined in the concluding remark section.
    Keywords: Economic growth; COVID-19; CO2 emissions; Isolation; Globalization; China
    JEL: Q5
    Date: 2020
  11. By: Chen, Haoyan; Qin, Botao
    Abstract: We designed and carried out a field experiment in which we imposed social comparison incentives and technical recommendations on student dormitories through electricity consumption reports and energy-saving suggestions materials, respectively. Our findings are as follows: 1) Regression results on all users show that the effect of social norms is not statistically significant. 2) A social comparison message has a heterogeneous effect on consumers' energy use. Low and high energy users reduced their electricity consumption by 26% and 14%, respectively, in the first week after the treatment. 3) The effect of social norms is time sensitive.
    Keywords: Social norms; Social comparison message; Energy saving behavior
    JEL: C93 D10 Q41
    Date: 2020–06–01
  12. By: Wes Austin; Stefano Carattini; John Gomez Mahecha; Michael Pesko
    Abstract: We examine the relationship between contemporaneous fine particulate matter exposure and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality using an instrumental variable approach based on wind direction. Harnessing daily changes in county-level wind direction, we show that arguably exogenous fluctuations in local air quality impact the rate of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19. In our preferred high dimensional fixed effects specification with state-level policy and social distancing controls, we find that a one μg/m3 increase in PM 2.5 increases the number of confirmed cases by roughly 2% from the mean case rate in a county. These effects tend to increase in magnitude over longer time horizons, being twice as large over a 3-day period. Meanwhile, a one μg/m3 increase in PM 2.5 increases the same-day death rate by 3% from the mean. Our estimates are robust to a host of sensitivity tests. These results suggest that air pollution plays an important role in mediating the severity of respiratory syndromes such as COVID-19, for which progressive respiratory failure is the primary cause of death, and that policy levers to improve air quality may lead to improvements in COVID-19 outcomes.
    Keywords: pollution, air quality, PM 2.5, COVID-19, health, mortality
    JEL: D62 I10 Q53
    Date: 2020
  13. By: Christopher Kath; Florian Ziel
    Abstract: Optimal execution, i.e., the determination of the most cost-effective way to trade volumes in continuous trading sessions, has been a topic of interest in the equity trading world for years. Electricity intraday trading slowly follows this trend but is far from being well-researched. The underlying problem is a very complex one. Energy traders, producers, and electricity wholesale companies receive various position updates from customer businesses, renewable energy production, or plant outages and need to trade these positions in intraday markets. They have a variety of options when it comes to position sizing or timing. Is it better to trade all amounts at once? Should they split orders into smaller pieces? Taking the German continuous hourly intraday market as an example, this paper derives an appropriate model for electricity trading. We present our results from an out-of-sample study and differentiate between simple benchmark models and our more refined optimization approach that takes into account order book depth, time to delivery, and different trading regimes like XBID (Cross-Border Intraday Project) trading. Our paper is highly relevant as it contributes further insight into the academic discussion of algorithmic execution in continuous intraday markets and serves as an orientation for practitioners. Our initial results suggest that optimal execution strategies have a considerable monetary impact.
    Date: 2020–09
  14. By: Greaves, Gerry
    Abstract: Climate-economy integrated assessment models are often used to assess the interaction between climate change effects and the economy. A simple but powerful model, DICE (Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy) model, was developed at Yale. This is an easily accessible model that allows exploration of various parameters that affect long-term (years 2000-2300) climate change. The global economic model estimates the future growth of economic output tempered by abatement costs and climate change damages. It uses an optimization scheme to determine the CO2eq price over time that maximizes discounted utility of consumption. However, there are a few areas that may be improved. This paper addresses those areas. First, a model of renewable energy that explicitly accounts for the capital required for the transition is added. This has the effect of smoothing the beginning of the transition, and shows that we can afford the transition. Second, a modified damage function is used that shows a greater penalty for business as usual. Third, the growth model used in DICE results in a level of economic growth too high to be supported by historical data. A modified growth model is proposed based primarily on historical data from the Penn World Table that results in lower growth and a more rapid decline in growth rate.
    Keywords: economic growth, energy, climate
    JEL: Q43 Q54
    Date: 2020
  15. By: Xu, J.; Pollitt, M.; Xie, B-C.; Yang, C-H.
    Abstract: China is reforming its electricity supply industry under the guidance of the No.9 document published in 2015. However, such reform has not been supported by new legislation until now. China unveiled an Energy Law draft in April 2020 for public consultation. It is widely regarded as an attempt to provide a legal foundation for ongoing energy sector reforms. This paper introduces the legislative background to China’s Energy Law and then identifies the weaknesses of the April 2020 Energy Law draft from the perspective of international experience. We find that although the Energy Law draft represents positive progress on the vertical unbundling and the price mechanism with respect to the competitive and natural monopoly segments of the power sector, it still does not provide adequate support for most other elements. The enacted Energy Law needs to make more explicit provision on horizontal restructuring, incentive regulation, privatization and independent regulation, while the 1995 Electricity Law should also be updated to include reference to the spot market and efficient allocation of transmission capacity as secondary legislation.
    Keywords: No.9 Document, Energy Law, power market reform
    JEL: K32
    Date: 2020–10–01
  16. By: Rossana Scita (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Pier Paolo Raimondi (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Michel Noussan (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)
    Abstract: Hydrogen is currently enjoying a renewed and widespread momentum in the energy market. In the last years, demand for hydrogen has substantially increased worldwide, with several countries developing hydrogen national strategies, and private companies investing in the development of hydrogen related projects. Green hydrogen’s environmental sustainability and versatility contribute to its representation as the holy grail of decarbonisation. This working paper challenges this definition, by analysing the historical process which contributed to hydrogen’s rise, showing the current uses of hydrogen and the major obstacles to the implementation of a green hydrogen economy, and assessing the geopolitical implications of a future hydrogen society. Particularly, the paper shows that the hydrogen economy is still far from becoming reality. Even though investments in green hydrogen technologies and projects have increased over the last decade, there still remains a high number of unresolved issues, relating to technical challenges and geopolitical implications. Nonetheless, a clean hydrogen economy offers promising opportunities not only to fight climate change, but also to redraw geopolitical relations between states. The energy transition is already taking place, with renewable energies gradually eroding the global energy system based on fossil fuels. A global transformation, set in motion by the need to decarbonise the energy system, will have the potential to redraw international alliances and conflicts. In this context, hydrogen may play a crucial role. By 2050, hydrogen could indeed meet up to 24% of the world’s energy needs, thus highly influencing the geopolitical landscape. In this regard, the choice over which pathway to take for the creation of hydrogen value chains will have a huge geopolitical impact, resulting in new dependencies and rivalries between states. Conclusively, if national governments are willing to spur the emergence of a green hydrogen economy, they should heavily invest in research and development, encourage the development of a clean hydrogen value chain, and promote common international standards. Moreover, they should also take into account hydrogen’s geopolitical implications. If the hydrogen economy is well-managed, it could indeed increase energy security, diversify the economy, and strengthen partnerships with third countries.
    Keywords: Green Hydrogen, Decarbonization, Energy, Energy Policy
    JEL: Q4 Q42 O14
  17. By: Shahid Hasan; Turki Al-Aqeel; Hafez El Salmawy (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: KAPSARC has initiated a research project to develop insights that can facilitate the establishment of a well-functioning integrated electricity market comprising the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It aims to assess the key issues affecting electricity market integration within the GCC and wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region to produce insights and policy recommendations that facilitate market integration.
    Keywords: Energy transitions, Energy security,Benefits of electricity trade, Network regulations
    Date: 2020–10–05
  18. By: Noha Elboghdadly (University of Bath, UK and Alexandria University, Egypt); Michael Finus (University of Graz, Austria)
    Abstract: Non-cooperative production-based carbon taxes might be set inefficiently low due to the concern of governments about carbon leakage and the loss of competitiveness of their industries. In a strategic trade model, we study the effect of a gradual shift from bilateral production- to unilateral or bilateral consumption-based carbon taxes, considering various forms of border carbon adjustments (BCAs). We analyse the optimal response of two countries in a non-cooperative policy game. We show that if the environmentally more concerned government shifts unilaterally to a consumption-based policy, BCAs on imports create a new incentive for the optimal tax structure. Although profit-shifting and carbon leakage distortions are gradually reduced or even eliminated by combining carbon tariffs with export rebates, the optimal tax may still be below individual marginal damages in strategic setting. In contrast, a bilateral consumption-based tax, could be set equal to or even above individual marginal damages. In equilibrium, all forms of BCAs could allow both governments to set higher carbon taxes than under a bilateral production-based tax regime. However, BCA-regimes which add export rebates to import tariffs should be chosen carefully, as they may actually increase global emissions.
    Keywords: Carbon Taxes; Border Carbon Adjustments; Carbon Leakage-shifting Effect; Profit-shifting Effect; Consumer Effect; Tariffs and Export Rebate Income Effect.
    JEL: C72 F12 F18 H23 Q58
    Date: 2020–10
  19. By: Nguyen, Hieu Trung; Battula, Swathi; Takkala, Rohit Reddy; Wang, Zhaoyu; Tesfatsion, Leigh
    Abstract: This study presents an open-source software platform specifically tailored to permit careful dynamic performance evaluation of transactive energy designs for end-to-end electric power systems. The platform models a centrally-managed wholesale power market operating over a transmission grid linked to one or more distribution systems, where each distribution system consists of a collection of grid-edge resources operating over a distribution grid. Test case findings are presented to illustrate the capabilities of the platform. The test cases implement a transmission system linked to a distribution system populated by households that have smart price-responsive appliances as well as conventional loads. Transactions at the distribution level are conducted in accordance with a well-known bid-based transactive energy design known as the PowerMatcher.
    Date: 2019–04–15
  20. By: Pio Baake; Sebastian Schwenen; Christian von Hirschhausen
    Abstract: In current power markets, the bulk of electricity is sold wholesale and transported to consumers via long-distance transmission lines. Recently, decentralized local power markets have evolved, often as isolated networks based on solar generation. We analyze strategic pricing, investment, and welfare in local power markets. We show that local power markets with peer-to-peer trading are competitive and provide efficient investment incentives, even for a small number of participating households. We identify positive network externalities that make larger markets more attractive but lead to inefficiencies where networks compete. Collectively, our results present a set of positive efficiency results for peer-to-peer electricity markets.
    Keywords: Market design, networks, peer-to-peer markets, electricity
    JEL: D47 L94
    Date: 2020
  21. By: Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano; Di Gioia, Leonardo; Lamonaca, Emilia
    Abstract: Vegetable oil market is becoming of increasing interest in the global biofuel industry. This phenomenon has also interested the European Union (EU), where the growing expansion of biofuel production is affected by political interventions promoting fuel security and environmental goals. Yet, empirical evidence on the impacts that changes in price of one commodity may have on the supply of another commodity are rather scant. We investigate these dynamics for the major sources of biodiesel in the EU and conclude on cross-commodity linkages for palm, rapeseed, soy, and sunflower oils. We also examine the acreage response of domestically produced feedstocks to changes in prices of vegetable oils. Our findings suggest strong and diversified path dependencies among vegetable oils that should be considered in planning sustainable biofuel policies. In particular, the empirical analysis reveals the great relevance of sunflower and soy oils, which show a high price responsiveness, and the high competition in end uses of domestically produced vegetable oils (i.e. rapeseed, soy, and sunflower oils), that tend to be net substitutes in supply. In terms of land use effects, we find that an increase in the price of imported palm oil results in a displacement effect in land devoted to rapeseed cultivation, whereas a surge in the price of sunflower oil decreases the use of land for rapeseed. Land use effects would be relevant in northern EU countries where the production of rapeseed is the most intense. A policy measure in the EU, incentivising the production of renewable and environmental-friendly fuel from sustainable feedstocks, would be positive for the domestic market to the extent that it stimulates the production of vegetable oils (soy and sunflower oils) with the highest direct and indirect emissions saving. However, the expansion of oil palm plantations in extra-EU producing countries and of imports to the EU would determine important impacts in terms of indirect land use change emissions and direct emissions due to increased transports.
    Keywords: Biofuel; Land Use Change; Price elasticity; Vegetable oils
    JEL: O13 P28 Q21 Q42
    Date: 2020–09
  22. By: Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel; Pachauri, Shonali
    Abstract: Understanding how electricity demand is likely to rise once households gain access to it is important to policy makers and planners alike. Current approaches to estimate the latent demand of unelectrified populations usually assume constant elasticity of demand. Here we use a simulation-based structural estimation approach, employing micro-data from household surveys for four developing nations, to estimate responsiveness of electricity demand and appliance ownership to income considering changes both on the intensive and extensive margin. We find significant heterogeneity in household response to income changes, which suggest that assuming a non-varying elasticity can result in biased estimates of demand. Our results confirm that neglecting heterogeneity in individual behavior and responses can result in biased demand estimates.
    Keywords: Energy Access, Household Energy Demand, Appliances Uptake, Simulation-based Econometrics, Scenario Analysis
    JEL: C53 D12 O13 Q4
    Date: 2020–07
  23. By: Jay Fuhrman (Department of Engineering Systems and Environment, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA); Andres F. Clarens (Department of Engineering Systems and Environment, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA); Haewon McJeon (Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, Maryland, USA); Pralit Patel (Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, Maryland, USA); Scott C. Doney (Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA); William M. Shobe (Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA); Shreekar Pradhan (Department of Engineering Systems and Environment, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA)
    Abstract: China's pledge to reach carbon neutrality by 2060 is ambitious and could provide the world with much-needed leadership on how to achieve a +1.5 degC warming target above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. But the pathways that would achieve net zero by 2060 are still unclear including the dependence on negative emissions technologies. Here, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM 5.3), a dynamic-recursive, technology-rich integrated assessment model, to simulate how negative emissions technologies, in general, and direct air capture (DAC), in particular, will contribute to China's meeting this target. Our results show that, for China to be net-zero in 2060, it would need to deploy negative emissions technologies (NETs) at very large scales, on the order of 2.5 GtCO2 negative emissions per year with up to 1.5 GtCO2 per year of that coming from DAC. DAC, like other forms of negative emissions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation is an emerging technology that has not been demonstrated at a commercial scale. Deploying NETs at this scale will have widespread impacts on financial systems and resources availability such as water, land, and energy in China and beyond.
    Date: 2020–10
  24. By: Cosimo Magazzino (Roma Tre University); Marco Mele (UNITE - Universita degli studi di Teramo - University of Teramo [Italie]); Nicolas Schneider; Guillaume Vallet (CREG - Centre de recherche en économie de Grenoble - UGA [2020-....] - Université Grenoble Alpes [2020-....])
    Abstract: This study aims to investigate the relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economicgrowth in Switzerland over the period 1970–2018. We use data on capital, labour, and exportswithin a multivariate framework. Starting from the consideration that Switzerland has decided tophase out nuclear energy by 2034, we examine the effect of this structural economic-energy changein the country. To do so, two distinct estimation tools are performed. The first model, using atime-series approach, analyze the relationship between bivariate and multivariate causality. Thesecond, using a Machine Learning methodology, test the results of the econometric modellingthrough an Artificial Neural Networks process. This last empirical procedure represents ouroriginal contribution with respect to the previous energy-GDP papers. The results, in thelogarithmic propagation of neural networks, suggest a careful analysis of the process that will leadto the abandonment of nuclear energy in Switzerland to avoid adverse effects on economic growth.
    Keywords: nuclear energy consumption,GDP,employment,capital stock,time-series,artificial neural networks
    Date: 2020–09–01
  25. By: Alejandro Caparrós
    Abstract: This paper analyzes a multilateral bargain game motivated by the Paris Agreement on climate change. Countries submit pledges, which can be revoked although this implies reputational costs. Pledges, which do not need to be accepted by other countries, detail intended abatement efforts and can be conditional or unconditional, according to whether they depend on transfers. As the process is repeated, incomplete long-term provisions are also considered. The analysis shows the conditions under which, despite its weakness, the Paris Agreement can bring the world to the first best, or at least closer. It also details how to improve the current agreement.
    Keywords: Bargaining Theory; Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Global Warming
    JEL: C73 C78 H41 Q54
    Date: 2020–05
  26. By: Johanna Bocklet; Martin Hintermayer
    Abstract: This paper uses a discrete-time partial equilibrium model of the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to analyze the impact of the recent reform on allowance prices. By including bounded rationality such as myopia or hedging requirements, we find that the Hotelling price path is no longer visible ex-post even though the Hotelling price rule holds ex-ante in the decision making of the firms. Myopia and hedging requirements have little impact in the pre-reform market but strongly drive market outcomes after the reform. In the post-reform market, hedging requirements in combination with restrictive allowance supply may even cause a physical shortage of allowances. Yet, neither form of bounded rationality can fully explain the market outcomes in the third trading period of the EU ETS. If myopia and hedging requirements are considered simultaneously, the price increase in the EU ETS can be attributed to the reform fundamentals.
    Keywords: dynamic optimization, EU ETS, bounded rationality, Hotelling, hedging, myopia
    JEL: D91 H32 Q58
    Date: 2020
  27. By: Graeme Graeme Blair (UCLA); Darin Christensen (UCLA); Aaron Rudkin (UCLA)
    Abstract: Scholars of the resource curse argue that reliance on primary commodities destabilizes governments: price fluctuations generate windfalls or periods of austerity that provoke or intensify civil conflict. Over 350 quantitative studies test this claim, but prominent results point in different directions, making it difficult to discern which results reliably hold across contexts. We conduct a meta-analysis of 46 natural experiments that use difference-in-difference designs to estimate the causal effect of commodity price changes on armed civil conflict. We show that commodity price changes, on average, do not change the likelihood of conflict. However, there are cross-cutting effects by commodity type. In line with theory, we find price increases for labor-intensive agricultural commodities reduce conflict, while increases in the price of oil, a capital-intensive commodity, provoke conflict. We also find that price increases for lootable artisanal minerals provoke conflict. Our meta-analysis consolidates existing evidence, but also highlights opportunities for future research.
    Keywords: resource curse, armed conflict, commodity prices, meta-analysis
    JEL: D74 Q20 Q30
    Date: 2020–09
  28. By: Musaeva, Gulzhan; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: The connection between oil price fluctuations and stock markets has gained much attention in the recent decades due to the critical importance of global oil prices. This paper aims to study the Granger-causal relationship between real prices of the Islamic stock market and real oil prices – a novel study, to the best of our knowledge. Malaysia is chosen as a case study. Using the standard time series techniques, we have discovered that Islamic stock prices and oil prices are both more or less independently leading; that is, neither of them drives the other to a large extent. These results are explained in part by Malaysia’s prevaling oil price subsidies. We thus conclude that, in all similar scenarios, investors should not use real oil price changes as a predictor of subsequent changes in the Islamic stock market, seeing that the latter seems to be strongly resilient to oil price fluctuations. The policymakers, in turn, could experiment by monitoring Islamic stock prices more closely to gauge the performance of the economy, in order to take any further action (if necessary) for affecting economic variables (through either stabilization or supply-side policies).
    Keywords: Islamic stock market, oil prices, Granger causality, Malaysia
    JEL: C22 C58 G15
    Date: 2018–10–31
  29. By: Ferrara, Andreas (University of Pittsburgh); Testa, Patrick A. (Tulane University)
    Abstract: Religious communities are important providers of social insurance. We document the development of religious communities in the face of economic volatility associated with natural resource abundance, using variation in major oilfield discoveries in the U.S. South between 1890 and 1990. We find that oil discoveries predict large and persistent increases in church membership. Effects are increasing with oil price volatility and larger for “oil-dependent” counties with small pre-oil populations and manufacturing sectors. Consistent with social insurance, larger religious communities limit spillovers from oil shocks across sectors, smoothing unemployment, while access to credit, private insurance, and public social insurance attenuate effects.
    Keywords: Social insurance; resource abundance; religion; church membership; oil; risk JEL Classification: N31, N32, H41, G52
    Date: 2020
  30. By: Mushtaq Hussain Khan (University of Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Muzaffarabad.); Junaid Ahmed (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.); Mazhar Mughal (Pau Business School, France.)
    Abstract: This study examines how crude oil price volatility affected the stock returns of major global oil and gas corporations during three major oil-price wars that took place between October 1991 and June 2020. Episodes considered include the 1998 Saudi Arabia—Venezuela war, the 2014-16 conflict and the 2020 Saudi Arabia—Russia war in a time of unprecedented crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings reveal a significant evidence for volatility persistence and leverage effects in oil price during the three oil-price wars. These findings are consistent for WTI as well as Brent crude oil specifications. Though the persistence of volatility is similar to that of the previous two oilprice wars, the 2020 Saudi Arabia—Russia oil-price war has higher volatility spikes than the previous two wars. Besides, oil price shocks have a significant and positive effect on the returns of oil and gas companies. These findings provide information on how volatility in global oil prices is also sensitive to irregular events such as price wars between oil producers. This information can be important for economic agents contemplating shorter hedges by managing risks during times of high volatility.
    Keywords: Crude Oil; Oil and Gas Corporations; Oil-price Wars; Stock Returns; Volatility
    JEL: C32 G12 Q40 Q43
    Date: 2020
  31. By: Zhang, nan; Qin, Botao
    Abstract: The formation of reference points has drawn increasing interest ever since the introduction of prospect theory. Given that most studies focus on tradable goods such as stocks, for which the prices are observable, while few have focused on environmental goods. This paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature in this regard. In our experiment, we divided the subjects into buyers and sellers and asked them to trade four PM 2.5 filters using the Becker–DeGroot–Marschak mechanism. We have two treatments in this experiment: a) the experience of seven weeks of heavy air pollution; and b) the receiving of information on the relationship between death rates and air pollution. The different bidding prices for the four PM 2.5 filters in these treatment groups make it possible to trace the adjustment of the reference points as a result of these treatments without having to know their precise values. Our results show that, for buyers, the heavy air pollution drives them to fully downwardly adjust their reference points on air quality. For sellers, however, the reference points adaptation caused by heavy pollution is not a full adaptation. Moreover, the new information on the damage to health from air pollution causes buyers to upwardly adjust their reference points on air quality but does not significantly change the sellers’ reference points. We show that, for both treatments, sellers are more reluctant to adjust their reference points on air quality than are buyers. Our results confirm the asymmetric reference point adaptation in that adaptation after a loss is harder than adaptation after a gain.
    Keywords: prospect theory; reference point; asymmetric adaptation; air pollution; BDM auction
    JEL: C90 D44 Q53
    Date: 2020–06–01
  32. By: Ruths Sion, Sebastian
    Abstract: This dissertation considers different aspects of crude oil research, primarily based on four independent empirical analyses, interconnected through a common denominator: Time-series analysis methods applied to global oil prices. The first three chapters are of introductory nature. They present the developments on global oil markets since the end of World War II and review the literature on crude oil. More importantly, they show how to estimate global models using vector autoregressive (VAR) and structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. The latter allow for the disentanglement and estimation of unexpected oil price shocks required for later analyses. The first analysis reviews the question, originally at the center of economic research on crude oil: How are macroeconomic performance and oil price shocks interrelated? New insights based on longer sample series as well as developments in SVAR models allow to complement the existing literature by estimating global models of oil. Based on a broad set of monthly macroeconomic variables for the United States and Germany, the analysis shows that these two industrialized economies react differently to oil price shocks. The disentanglement of the underlying causes of unexpected oil price movements is crucial. The second empirical analysis concerns the effects of oil embargoes against oil producing countries The same SVAR models are applied in the framework of the sanctions that were imposed on Iran by the international community late 2011 and early 2012. The estimation results show that the direct effects of the Iran sanctions on global oil prices were limited and temporary. By estimating and analyzing the unexpected oil price changes before the implementation of sanctions, we find evidence that sanctions might have important price increasing effects through market expectations long before their official implementation. Departing from the same global model that includes the real price of crude oil as an endogenous variable, the third analysis is concerned with its oil price forecasting properties. We are able to improve the forecasting accuracy by applying regularization methods for variable selection. Originating from the machine learning literature, these methods are now widely used in economic research, especially in cases, where a large number of variables are included in the model. Furthermore, typical lag selection methods, used in the estimation of global models of oil are compared. Finally, the core variable set is augmented by a wide range of possibly relevant regressors as suggested by the literature. The fourth and final analysis concerns another aspect of oil price forecasting when using crude oil futures as forecasts for the spot price of oil. We estimate whether forecasting preferences are asymmetric in a sense that a positive forecast error has a different cost than a negative forecast error of the same magnitude. Using different model specifications and a wide range of instrument sets inspired by the literature on futures, we find robust evidence for asymmetric loss. The market has a preference to underestimate the spot price of crude oil through futures pricing. This indicates the existence of a risk premium on crude oil futures.
    Date: 2020
  33. By: Saeed Nosratabadi; Amir Mosavi; Ramin Keivani; Sina Ardabili; Farshid Aram
    Abstract: Deep learning (DL) and machine learning (ML) methods have recently contributed to the advancement of models in the various aspects of prediction, planning, and uncertainty analysis of smart cities and urban development. This paper presents the state of the art of DL and ML methods used in this realm. Through a novel taxonomy, the advances in model development and new application domains in urban sustainability and smart cities are presented. Findings reveal that five DL and ML methods have been most applied to address the different aspects of smart cities. These are artificial neural networks; support vector machines; decision trees; ensembles, Bayesians, hybrids, and neuro-fuzzy; and deep learning. It is also disclosed that energy, health, and urban transport are the main domains of smart cities that DL and ML methods contributed in to address their problems.
    Date: 2020–10
  34. By: Steve Cicala
    Abstract: This paper documents an increase in residential electricity consumption while industrial and commercial consumption has fallen during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. Hourly smart meter data from Texas reveals how daily routines changed during the pandemic, with usage during weekdays closely resembling those of weekends. The 16% residential increase during work hours offsets the declines from commercial and industrial customers. Using monthly data from electric utilities nationwide, I find a 10% increase in residential consumption, and a 12% and 14% reduction in commercial and industrial usage, respectively, during the second quarter of 2020. This contrasts with the financial crisis of 2008, which also witnessed a rapid decline in industrial electricity consumption, but left residential usage unaffected. The increase in residential consumption is found to be positively associated with the share of the labor force that may work from home. From April through July of 2020, total excess expenditure on residential electricity was nearly $6B.
    JEL: L94 Q4
    Date: 2020–10
  35. By: Li, Chao; Hayes, Dermot J.; Jacobs, Keri L.
    Abstract: The supply chain connecting biofuel processing firms and suppliers of biomass is evolving, and processors face a choice in the collection and pricing strategies they will employ to procure biomass. One option is to pay a single price for biomass collected field-side (processor collection). Another is to pay a single price for biomass at the plant gate (supplier delivery). The literature in this area is relatively young, but there is a sense that the evolution of contracting and pricing structures will dictate the industry’s success, and ultimately the costs of producing biofuels from dedicated and non-dedicated energy crops. We examine the collection and pricing choices for a cost-minimizing cellulosic biofuel processor, who initially has monopsony power in feedstock procurement in their collection area. We derive optimal prices, total expenditures on feedstocks, and the collection areas required to meet a processor’s fixed input needs. We show that while societal welfare is greatest under supplier delivery; however, the processor will be indifferent between supplier delivery and processor collection unless they are concerned about entry of a competing processor. When this is the case, the processor can use the processorcollection mechanism as an effective deterrent to entry. Numerical simulation based on corn stover for biomass is used to illustrate optimal pricing and the extent of biomass collection areas for different procurement and pricing strategies. We use these findings to calculate the rates at which collection costs increase for a monopsonistic stover processor constrained to a defined procurement area, as might emerge as the industry moves towards commercialization. The derived marginal cost curve for a monopsonistic processor of stover is compared with the marginal cost curve across alternative feedstocks.
    Date: 2018–10–18
  36. By: Thomas, Auswin George; Tesfatsion, Leigh
    Abstract: This study investigates the effects of dynamic-price retail contracting on integrated retail and wholesale (IRW) power market operations. Performance is evaluated by means of carefully defined metrics for system stability and market participant welfare. The study is carried out for an IRW Test Case for which 500 households have price-responsive air-conditioning systems. It is shown that dynamic-price retail contracting can give rise to braided cobweb dynamics consisting of two interwoven cycles for power and price levels exhibiting either stability or instability depending on system conditions. Moreover, even in stable cases, dynamic-price retail contracts generally result in worse welfare outcomes for households than flat-rate retail contracts.
    Date: 2018–11–01
  37. By: Melnikov, Roman (Мельников, Роман) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Koptelov, Matvey (Коптелов, Матвей) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Ginoyan, Agrishti (Гиноян, Агришти) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Krasnoshchekov, Valentin (Краснощеков, Валентин) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Spitsyna, Tatiana (Спицына, Татьяна) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)
    Abstract: The study proposes methods of infrastructural investments evaluation at macroeconomic and project levels. The impact of infrastructure development on economic growth in Russian regions has been studied using methods of spatial econometrics and panel data. The impact of high-tech perinatal centers opening on reducing infant and maternal mortality has been evaluated considering the effect of learning curve. The techniques to assess information risks and risks of deviation of actual electricity generation from the projected level of nuclear power plant construction projects have been developed
    Keywords: effectiveness of investments, methodological finance
    Date: 2020–10
  38. By: Basu, Rahul
    Abstract: Norway’s management of its North Sea oil endowment, especially its future generations Oil Fund, is considered the global best practice. Some practice aspects such as no flaring of gas or a moderate pace of extraction go against standard economic theory. The public trust doctrine in law provides a useful lens to understand Norway’s model, and provides lessons for mineral owners world-wide.
    Keywords: Intergenerational Equity; Public Trust Doctrine;
    JEL: K0 L72 N5 O1 P2 P48 Q3
    Date: 2020–09–11
  39. By: Li, Jie; Forzati, Marco
    Abstract: This work aims to contribute to the debate on the fixed wireless versus fixed line broadband access solutions by focusing on scenarios offering Gbps level broadband access. More specifically, we performed a techno-economic analysis on the cost, performance (in the term of download speed) and energy consumption of optical fiber versus 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) based solutions over a 10-year perspective. The study is based on the case in Sweden in order to achieve one of the Swedish government's 2025 broadband goals that 98% of Swedish households and workplaces should have at least 1 Gbps broadband access. Alongside with the pure fiber-based solution, 3 FWA-based scenarios using existing commercial macro cells, newly installed mmWave small cells, and hybrid macro and small cells, are evaluated. Based on the findings in this work we conclude that: 1) The pure fiber-based solution should be the "default" choice in order to achieve the Swedish government's 2025 broadband goal to reach 98% of Swedish households and workplaces with at least 1 Gbps broadband access; 2) Even though FWA using mmWave small cells is potentially capable of achieving the 1 Gbps @ 98% goal, the trade-off will be the high total cost levels and more energy consumption. In addition, the end user experience is subject to variations of whether and environmental conditions, and the distance to the network antenna; 3)FWA using existing commercial macro cells alone is not capable to reach the 1 Gbps @ 98% goal, despite the estimated relatively low cost. In addition, the estimated energy consumption level is also significantly higher than the pure fiber-based solution. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first-time reported techno-economic study on comparing 5G FWA with pure-fiber-based broadband access.
    Keywords: 5G,fixed wireless access,fiber broadband,techno-economic analysis
    Date: 2020
  40. By: Afia Malik (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)
    Abstract: The electricity sector in Pakistan has suffered huge losses (cumulated loss of Rs 5 trillion about 12 percent of current GDP). The nomenclature of “circular debt” has confused policy-makers to think that it is a mere accounting problem and not a result of deep structural issues that need to be carefully unravelled. Besides creating budgetary issues it has badly affected the overall sustainability of the electricity supply chain for many years. The study finds that not only governance issues, operational and commercial inefficiencies in the system; it is the lack of effective planning and flawed policies on the generation side, and distortions in our pricing strategy accompanied with irrational subsidies on the demand side, that are contributing to this financial liability.
    Keywords: Circular Debt, Power Sector, Governance, Weak Policies
    JEL: G38 H11 L94
    Date: 2020
  41. By: H.E. Dr. Majid Al Moneef; Fakhri Hasanov (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Fiscal policy lies at the heart of key macroeconomic and budgetary decisions and is central to understanding the dynamics of oil rich economies. Fiscal multipliers, including spending multipliers, indicate how changes to fiscal policy can stimulate economic growth, to what magnitude, and how efficiently, making them valuable tools for macroeconomic planning and analysis.
    Keywords: Fiscal multipliers, Non-oil Private GDP, VAR analysis
    Date: 2020–10–05
  42. By: Mohajan, Haradhan
    Abstract: Since start of the Industrial Revolution about 260 years ago, the negative effects from the traditional linear economy (LE) become threat to the stability of the economies and natural ecosystems. Strength of climate change, reduction of environment pollution and integrity of ecosystems are essential issues for survival of the global humanity. According to LE resources for production are easily available and unlimited, and after use wastes are disposable. The circular economy (CE) is an alternative to the LE where the resources may be used for as long as possible. It tries to capture the value of existing products and materials, and decreases the use of primary materials in industries. The CE is a part of environmental economics and beneficial to the society. It keeps products, components, and materials at their highest utility and maximum value at all times. At present CE is one of the most focused terms among environmental economic scientists. The aim of this study is the implementation of the sustainable development strategies and the transition from LE towards CE.
    Keywords: Circular economy, Economic growth, Recycling, Reuse, Reduction, Sustainable development, SWOT analysis
    JEL: D6 D61 E1
    Date: 2020–01–10
  43. By: Abraham Londono Pineda; Jose Alejandro Cano; Lissett Pulgarin
    Abstract: This article explores the challenges for the adoption of scrubbers and low sulfur fuels on ship manufacturers and shipping companies. Results show that ship manufacturers, must finance their working capital and operating costs, which implies an increase in the prices of the ships employing these new technologies. On the other hand, shipping companies must adopt the most appropriate technology according to the areas where ships navigate, the scale economies of trade routes, and the cost-benefit analysis of ship modernization.
    Date: 2020–09
  44. By: Kevin J. Stiroh
    Abstract: Remarks on the panel "New regulatory and policy landscape for sustainable finance," 2020 IIF Annual Membership Meeting (delivered via videoconference).
    Keywords: risks; financial stability; climate change; Climate-related Financial Risks (TFCR); framework; initiatives; Basel Committee
    Date: 2020–10–14
  45. By: Littlechild, S.
    Abstract: Although residential energy supply is often assumed to be a homogenous product, there is significant variation in customer service, and most suppliers are unknown to most customers. How best to inform customers about suppliers’ performance and thereby enable customers to engage more effectively in the market? This paper proposes an Overall Customer Satisfaction (OCS) score, defined as the average of four different ratings published by Ofgem, the Consumers’ Association (Which? magazine), Citizens Advice and the consumer review site Trustpilot. There is limited correlation between these four ratings. The index is calculated for over 30 energy suppliers during the period from May 2018 to August 2020. The index increased in early 2019 suggesting that customer satisfaction improved. Medium suppliers score highest, but the Large former incumbent suppliers have markedly improved their OCS ranking over this period, albeit from a relatively low level. Small suppliers have more variable scores. Suppliers scoring less than 60 have not survived. Some Medium suppliers with very high OCS scores have been offering significant savings on their standard variable default tariffs, thereby encouraging customer loyalty rather than using these tariffs to exploit passive customers.
    Keywords: customer satisfaction, customer feedback, retail energy market, Trustpilot
    JEL: L15 L51 L94
    Date: 2020–09–30
  46. By: Radi, Sherihan
    Abstract: This research investigates the impact of five pillars (growth – happiness – abundance- significance - meaning) on encouraging brilliance in the workplace. It used a mixed methods approach to collect information related to the research. The researcher found that the five pillars (growth – happiness – abundance - significance - meaning) have a significant impact on encouraging brilliance in the workplace. Insights from this study can be used to benefit the development of this research line in future.
    Keywords: Brilliance, growth, happiness, abundance, significance, meaning, workplace.
    JEL: J00 J28
    Date: 2020–08–20
  47. By: Kathrin Goldmann (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster); Jan Wessel (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster)
    Abstract: Between cities and regions, not only cycling levels differ, but also the reactions of cyclists to adverse weather conditions. Using data from 122 automated bicycle counting stations in 30 German cities, and a composite index of adverse weather conditions that consists of air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, and cloud coverage, we calculate city-specific weather elasticities of the level of utilitarian cycling. The results show that these weather elasticities vary significantly between cities. Our next step is to analyze various determinants of weather elasticities, which reveals that the share of young inhabitants and the density of the cycle network have a positive impact on weather resilience. Based on the notion that resilience to adverse weather conditions reflects a revealed part of a city's bicycle culture, the weather elasticities can be used to create a ranking of bicycle cities. This ranking is positively correlated with a ranking based on the modal share of cycling, as well as with other rankings based on stated preference surveys or external conditions such as infrastructure or cycling safety.
    Keywords: Bicycle, weather elasticities, Germany, regional heterogeneity, bicycle city ranking, cycling culture
    JEL: R49
    Date: 2020–07

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